Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Oct 1 2013

Interesting day that started with a few stops. Not getting discouraged and trading carefully, we returned into profitable territory with 1:3, couple 1:2s and scalps, finishing day on a plus side. Trader's job... keep calm and trade.

Session Time: Tue Oct 01 00:00:00 2013
[08:47] {fish_49} gold for sale this morning?
01[08:48] {&Threei}  and miners with it
[08:58] {fish_49} Out JY  +24 ticks  I made my money for the day
[08:58] {fish_49} lol
[08:59] {nemo} "A bikini is not a bikini unless it can be pulled through a wedding ring."
[09:01] {nemo} Do you think God knew what He was doing when He created woman? Huh? No shit. I really wanna know. Or do you think it was another one of His minor mistakes like tidal waves, earthquakes, FLOODS? You think women are like that? S'matter? You don't think God makes mistakes? Of course He does. We ALL make mistakes. Of course, when WE make mistakes they call it evil. When GOD makes mistakes,
[09:02] {nemo} they call it... nature. So whaddya think? Women... a mistake... or DID HE DO IT TO US ON PURPOSE?
01[09:02] {&Threei}  someone forgot his meds this morning?...
[09:03] {nemo} nah, Jack in Witches of Eastwick
[09:03] {fish_49} that's why god made bunnies
01[09:03] {&Threei}  and a magazine to feature them
[09:03] {dino} gm
01[09:03] {&Threei}  dino :)
[09:03] {RonS} gm lol
01[09:03] {&Threei}  ron :)
[09:04] {nemo} cute animal picture warning:  http://bit.ly/19SE1gc
[09:04] {RonS} hearing gold selloff due to all the govt workers selling...hehe
01[09:04] {&Threei}  lol
[09:06] {cipher} gm
01[09:06] {&Threei}  cipher :)
[09:10] {_sara} Hello, good afternoon
01[09:10] {&Threei}  good morning sara
[09:11] {cipher} afternoon?
[09:11] {fish_49} UK?
[09:11] {_sara} ok, yes morning for you
[09:11] {cipher} where are you sara?
[09:11] {_sara} Spain
[09:11] {cipher} cool
[09:11] {cipher} thinking about moving there
[09:11] {cipher} one of my choices
[09:12] {_sara} good weather but...
[09:12] {+cc_9} Good morning folks.
[09:12] {cipher} cc
01[09:12] {&Threei}  cc9 :)
[09:12] {_sara} hello cc
[09:12] {cipher} but?
[09:13] {_sara} is not a good place now
[09:13] {_sara} i think
[09:13] {cipher} you mean economy?
[09:13] {_sara} yes
[09:13] {cipher} I hear ya
[09:24] {jdetente} morning all
[09:24] {nemo} oh, the kicking bag is trying to get in
01[09:25] {&Threei}  jd :)
[09:26] {_sara} hello jd
[09:26] {Alexs} gm
01[09:26] {&Threei}  alex :)
[09:26] {+cc_9} GMCR once again on deck @ open, goes higher today once more.
[09:28] {jdetente} do you have a specific entry target cc?
01[09:29] {&Threei}  don't you find it ironic that SPY gaps up on govt shutdown
[09:29] {jdetente} seems kind of fitting
[09:30] {+cc_9} i always give GMCR a few minutes to settle (wide gap)
01[09:30] {&Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .10 break hl
01[09:30] {&Threei}  If holds  .20
[09:30] {+cc_9} going to start small position here 75.00
[09:30] {+cc_9} very high beta stock, so careful jd
01[09:31] {&Threei}  Invalidated
[09:31] {ese} gm...almost forgot to sign in
[09:31] {jdetente} morning ese
[09:32] {nemo} lucky us
[09:32] {ese} jd
[09:32] {+cc_9} u see spread goes as high as $0.30+
[09:32] {ese} lol
01[09:32] {&Threei}  ese :)
[09:32] {jdetente} yeah that's a good sized spread
[09:32] {+cc_9} GMCR tgt 76+
[09:32] {jdetente} just watching for the moment
[09:33] {+cc_9} Market once again : btfd
01[09:33] {&Threei}  got away
01[09:33] {&Threei}  (US) Senate Majority Leader Reid (D-NV): Senate to vote against latest House CR spending measure
01[09:34] {&Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .50 break
01[09:34] {&Threei}  If holds  .60
01[09:35] {&Threei}  stop .56
[09:35] {cipher} AMBA L.11
[09:36] {cipher} out .49
01[09:36] {&Threei}  meh
[09:37] {jdetente} dirty rotten scoundrel
[09:37] {+cc_9} BTFD = never fails
[09:37] {+cc_9} SPY session highs
01[09:38] {&Threei}  can't believe GLD short got away
01[09:38] {&Threei}  look at it
[09:38] {ese} nemo....tech question for ya........you still trading off of pivot points or are you just using them as a reference
[09:38] {+cc_9} GMCR no following through with SPY here...ugh
[09:38] {dino} bud hl l .80
01[09:39] {&Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .55 break
01[09:39] {&Threei}  If holds  .47
[09:41] {Alexs} stop to .49?
[09:41] {+cc_9} GMCR catching some bids
01[09:41] {&Threei}  not yet
01[09:41] {&Threei}  after second .60 break, yes
[09:42] {+cc_9} GMCR new session highs
[09:42] {+cc_9} needs through .40s
01[09:43] {&Threei}  no go
[09:43] {+cc_9} GMCR out half 75.50 holding rest 76+, i love this stock, its official.
06[09:43] * Les slaps nemo around a bit with a large trout
[09:43] {jdetente} uh no
[09:43] {Les} everything works
01[09:43] {&Threei}  lol
[09:44] {nemo} like syphilis, he rises again
[09:44] {fish_49} WB Les
01[09:44] {&Threei}  welcome back Les, grand entrance
[09:44] {Les} creativity can wait
[09:44] {fish_49} why does it have to be a fish you slap that guy with?
[09:44] {jdetente} it's a euphanism
[09:44] {nemo} it's like fratricide fish
[09:44] {ese} LESSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! welcome back
[09:44] {jdetente} euphemism that is
[09:44] {Les} EEEESSSSSSSSSEEEEEEEEEE
[09:44] {nemo} Oh I heard Les and ese got back together for the sequel
[09:45] {ese} lol
[09:45] {Les} long summer, great summer
[09:45] {nemo} http://imdb.to/1aHDVKw
01[09:45] {&Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .90 break
01[09:45] {&Threei}  If holds  .80
[09:46] {+cc_9} GMCR here comes the takeoff
[09:46] {ese} unlike the other "crawling lower than a snakes belly in a wagon rut" individuals on this board.....i'm glad to see ya
[09:46] {dino} bud stop .54 -.26
01[09:46] {&Threei}  what the feuce
[09:46] {+cc_9} small order pending .65 offer, if gets taken next will take 76
[09:46] {nemo} mixed metaphor there
[09:46] {ese} feuce?
[09:47] {ese} awesome....love that one
[09:47] {+cc_9} GMCR .65 taken, pending .75
[09:47] {+cc_9} .75 GMCR taken
[09:47] {ese} in the mean time .....i'm up +.70 approx with tibx and 2500 of the little blighters
[09:48] {Les} nice
[09:48] {+cc_9} so far sold 75.50 / 75.65 / 75.75, last portion pending $76.00
[09:48] {ese} ya is good sometimes
[09:48] {+cc_9} GMCR 75.90 giddy up!
[09:48] {Les} entry price cc?
[09:48] {ese} tried to talk ron into this trade yesterday..........but it was a no go
[09:48] {Les} 75?
[09:48] {+cc_9} Les : 09:31 cc_9 going to start small position here 75.00
[09:49] {Les} yeh it's well marked
[09:49] {+cc_9} GMCR all out last batch $76.00 :D
[09:49] {Les} nice one
[09:49] {ese} nemo.....did you catch my earlier tech question for you
[09:49] {+cc_9} JD, next one we get it together mate
[09:49] {jdetente} will do
[09:50] {+cc_9} GMCR Trade P&L }}} http://img268.imageshack.us/img268/2150/x02r.JPG
01[09:50] {&Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .60 break
01[09:51] {&Threei}  If holds  .50
[09:52] {ese} whoa....looks like Oct is going to be a very nice month
[09:52] {nemo} no sorry ese
[09:53] {ese} nemo....tech question for ya........you still trading off of pivot points or are you just using them as a reference
[09:53] {robbers} TZA acting nicely.
[09:53] {jdetente} we're going to call you Rerun ese
[09:53] {ese} lol
01[09:53] {&Threei}  change to .50 break
[09:53] {nemo} yes
01[09:53] {&Threei}  If holds  .45
[09:53] {jdetente} http://bagelradio.com/blog/uploaded_images/rerun-777257.png
[09:53] {dino} regn smr l .55
[09:54] {ese} yes to trading off or yes to just reference
[09:54] {nemo} well they are inflection points good place for soemthing to happen, spy right now is real tight around the Monthly pivot
[09:55] {nemo} it topped out at daily R1
[09:55] {ese} monthly pivot?  
[09:55] {ese} you find that more effective than intra day pivot
[09:56] {nemo} it's higher time frame...swing traders it's more important, but when multiple levels are REAL close together, than it has more significance
[09:56] {nemo} track daily, weekly, monthly
[09:56] {+cc_9} SPY, this gon be fun
[09:57] {nemo} 50 day right here on spy
[09:57] {ese} hmmm...ok thanks
[09:57] {_sara} SCHW .35 bo .30
[09:57] {nemo} check email ese
[09:58] {ese} will do
[09:58] {nemo} ism coming
[09:59] {nemo} it's also Mutual Fund day
[09:59] {ese} is that spy monthly nemo?
[09:59] {nemo} that's today ese
[09:59] {nemo} those are the potential inflection levels
[10:00] {nemo} notice how spy just bounced off the 50 day
[10:00] {ese} yup
01[10:01] {&Threei}  *(US) SEPT ISM MANUFACTURING: 56.2 V 55.0E; PRICES PAID: 56.5 V 55.0E -
01[10:02] {&Threei}  (US) Fitch: US debt ceiling is not itself a downgrade trigger, but a formal ratings review with potentially negative implications would be triggered if govt does not raise debt ceiling in a timely manner
01[10:03] {&Threei}  not delighted by today
[10:03] {+cc_9} GMCR back to $76 HOD
[10:04] {+cc_9} boom she goes
[10:06] {Les} DJIA lagging IWM could retreat here
[10:06] {dino} bud hl l .61
[10:06] {nemo} go take some pictures
[10:06] {Les} go screw yer bunny
[10:07] {nemo} whoa!
[10:07] {jdetente} cranky Les returns from vacation
[10:07] {Les} bankster DT?
[10:08] {Les} Nemo's wracked up a lot of slappin credit in my absence
[10:08] {nemo} I slacked off, when u left
[10:08] {dino} ccl hl l .51
[10:08] {+cc_9} SPY about to close yesterday's gap here
[10:08] {+cc_9} ($169)
[10:09] {nemo} will have to turn around at 69
[10:09] {nemo} short signals on indexes
06[10:09] * Les slaps Nemo for being two minutes late
[10:10] {dino} out bud .00, +.39
[10:10] {+cc_9} GMCR taking off
[10:10] {Les} DJIA catchup
[10:12] {nemo} strong this morning:  swk joy trip hlf cat unp dltr wlp
[10:12] {nemo} weak: now nem
[10:12] {nemo} tck yy mpc rrc
[10:17] {ese} nemo ...when you get a sec.....take a look at tibx for me 1min chart with pivots....just noticed it bounced off of resistance pivot 2....sky the limit for the rest of the day per chance
[10:20] {ese} with help from the spyders of course
[10:20] {+cc_9} SPY boom :D
[10:20] {+cc_9} BTFD everyday
[10:21] {+cc_9} SPY closing in on that $169
[10:22] {ese} yup
[10:24] {+cc_9} This is what I mean by BTFD : http://img34.imageshack.us/img34/524/m9t.JPG
[10:25] {jdetente} nice TNA
01[10:25] {&Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .40 break
01[10:25] {&Threei}  If holds  .50
[10:26] {Alexs} why so wide stop?
01[10:27] {&Threei}  wide?
01[10:27] {&Threei}  10 cents?
[10:27] {dino} rh hl l .01
06[10:28] * nemo slaps Alex with a coin filled sap
[10:28] {Alexs} resistence .45
01[10:28] {&Threei}  moving over .45 briefly wouldn't invalidate this setup
[10:28] {+cc_9} thanks JD
01[10:28] {&Threei}  moving over .50 would
[10:28] {Alexs} ok
[10:28] {+cc_9} Also, SPY hit that $169 like clock work
01[10:29] {&Threei}  .45 does form a resistance level enough to trail stop faster than 1:1
01[10:29] {&Threei}  but as invaslidation level it wouldn't fit for now
[10:29] {nemo} nem bottom might fall out
[10:29] {Alexs} ok ty
[10:30] {dino} out rh .32, +.31
[10:31] {nemo} cat
[10:32] {fish_49} Government should shut down more often
01[10:33] {&Threei}  or just once
[10:33] {fish_49} forever?
01[10:33] {&Threei}  right
[10:33] {+cc_9} SPY } $169
[10:33] {+cc_9} this is today's action, hope everyone banked on it. BTFD was pretty much all there was.
[10:34] {dino} out regn 313.60, +2.05
[10:34] {nemo} weekly spy pivot 169.35
[10:34] {+cc_9} look @ QIWI, wowzers
[10:34] {nemo} looks like the mutual funds will get there present
[10:35] {nemo} their
[10:35] {dino} floats 8 million shares and goes up
[10:38] {nemo} this is weekly R1 in IWM
01[10:38] {&Threei}  stop to .46
[10:38] {nemo} short signal in finnies
[10:38] {nemo} not in iwm or spy though
[10:46] {nemo} strong and weak stocks at the moment:  http://bit.ly/1g0fdsP
[10:50] {ese} what trading program is that nemo
[10:51] {nemo} it's a persistence algo, a friend of mine runs over at Kirshner trading, he lets me log into it
[10:52] {ese} cool ....nice to have  friends in high places
[10:52] {nemo} oh, shit...father is yelling at the rabbit...I'll be back
01[10:52] {&Threei}  1:1 is close enough
01[10:52] {&Threei}  half out
01[10:52] {&Threei}  stop to .41
[10:53] {ese} lol
[10:59] {nemo} now look for index shorts
[10:59] {nemo} almost iwm all time highs
[10:59] {nemo} what gov't shut-down
[11:00] {fish_49} Markets Slap Uncle Sam with Furlough
[11:02] {nemo} iwm strong though, might go for all time highs before a pullback
[11:14] {nemo} IWM party hats there
[11:15] {nemo} So.....
[11:15] {nemo} can Bennie keep this party running until he skeedaddles?
[11:16] {dino} becn gap fill jan
[11:18] {nemo} gawd they wanna' run the iwm
[11:20] {dino} ccl stop .34 -.17
[11:22] {_sara} CRUS .05 bd .10
01[11:23] {&Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  84 break
[11:23] {nemo} you shorting sara?
01[11:23] {&Threei}  If holds  .90
[11:23] {_sara} yes nemo
[11:24] {nemo} so your break is .05 with stop above .10?
[11:24] {_sara} yes
[11:24] {dino} what does bd mean sara? breakdown?
[11:24] {_sara} yes
[11:24] {nemo} my spanish is rusty
[11:26] {jdetente} pardon nemo sara he is our payaso
[11:27] {_sara} don't worry
[11:27] {nemo} payaso demonio perhaps
[11:28] {jdetente} duende
[11:28] {_sara} high spread sometimes in CRUS
[11:28] {nemo} nah, still too nice for me
[11:29] {jdetente} so true
[11:29] {nemo} you'll ruin my reputation
[11:30] {jdetente} if you were closer to the southwest the chupacabra might be a better fit
[11:30] {nemo} hah, I ain't Mexican
[11:30] {nemo} I remember an X-files episode about that
[11:31] {dino} that was a cool show
[11:31] {jdetente} yeah x-files was great until the last few seasons
[11:32] {nemo} after the first movie it went downhill, there was nowhere left to go with the story arc
[11:32] {nemo} that's why Duchovny left
[11:32] {dino} agreed
[11:32] {dino} hl l becn .51
[11:32] {+cc_9} did i miss anything ?
[11:32] {nemo} all-time highs in IWM
[11:32] {nemo} by .01 or .02
06[11:33] * Les slaps Nemo for introducing Downton Abbey into the house
[11:33] {nemo} sorry
[11:33] {jdetente} speaking of tv shows...anyone here watch Breaking Bad?
[11:33] {nemo} It might suck this year, so many of the cast have left
[11:33] {+cc_9} jd, yes
[11:33] {dino} out becn .81, +.30
[11:33] {+cc_9} well, watched*
[11:34] {jdetente} yeah I really enjoyed it
[11:34] {jdetente} good final episode
[11:34] {+cc_9} started watching it in 2009
[11:34] {+cc_9} been hooked ever since
[11:34] {+cc_9} Mad Men same thing
[11:34] {+cc_9} its like being hooked on Krokodil
[11:34] {jdetente} Mad Men has gone downhill I think
[11:34] {jdetente} I'm kind of losing interest
[11:35] {+cc_9} Where did you get ?
[11:35] {nemo} Justified is a fun show
[11:35] {jdetente} I've heard that
[11:35] {nemo} basically modern day western
[11:35] {jdetente} may need to check it out from the beginning
[11:35] {+cc_9} Boardwalk Empire is good as well
[11:35] {nemo} yep
[11:35] {+cc_9} nemo, the lead actor is Justified pretty good
[11:35] {jdetente} Deadwood guy
[11:35] {nemo} yeah, Timothy Olyphant
[11:35] {jdetente} another good show
[11:35] {RonS} Hell On Wheeels
[11:36] {RonS} wheels
[11:36] {dino} deadwood,that was good show
[11:36] {nemo} I loved Ian McShane in Deadwood
[11:36] {Les} yeh got
[11:36] {jdetente} he was the best
[11:36] {+cc_9} The Killing is great if you're into detective/suspense stuff
[11:36] {Les} the 1st season of deadwood
[11:36] {RonS} curseo'meter whaen through roof after every episode
[11:36] {Les} haven't got past 2 episode. bit much for the kids
[11:36] {nemo} yeah, Deadwood is rough
[11:37] {jdetente} yeah that's not a kid's show at all
[11:37] {Les} this room not only good for trading but
[11:37] {Les} tv reviews
[11:37] {nemo} gotta' watch that on your own with headphones
[11:37] {RonS} lol...dialogue between Swearingen and the Chinaman...
[11:38] {nemo} Swingen!
[11:39] {jdetente} hehe
01[11:39] {&Threei}  1:1
[11:39] {Les} what's customs doing during the shutdown. airports open?
[11:39] {Les} nice one bad
[11:39] {Les} er...vad
01[11:39] {&Threei}  either will do
01[11:39] {&Threei}  lol
[11:39] {jdetente} Bad Vad
[11:39] {Les} mad
[11:39] {jdetente} 80s super villian
01[11:40] {&Threei}  lol
01[11:40] {&Threei}  1:2
01[11:40] {&Threei}  speaking of shows and villains... tried dexter
01[11:40] {&Threei}  barely managed one season and dropped
[11:41] {+cc_9} dexter is for children
[11:41] {+cc_9} writing is very pg-13ish
[11:41] {nemo} mmmmmhhhh....
[11:41] {+cc_9} waaa serial killer, waaa also cop...yawn
[11:42] {nemo} to advanced for Les
01[11:42] {&Threei}  clumsy, no realism whatsoever
[11:42] {Les} sounds like Nemo's se... ah life
[11:42] {+cc_9} Vad, you should get into Boardwalk Empire, that show is a solid 9/10
[11:42] {nemo} nobody ever deals with the complexities of getting rid of a body
01[11:42] {&Threei}  if only that nemo... there is a hole on the hole, covered by another hole
[11:43] {+cc_9} nemo : cement + barrel + boat
[11:43] {+cc_9} also, krokodil
[11:43] {nemo} logistics...
01[11:43] {&Threei}  you assume water being nearby
01[11:43] {&Threei}  what are continetal guys to do
[11:43] {+cc_9} yes, i assume it is
[11:44] {+cc_9} desert
[11:44] {+cc_9} shovel
01[11:44] {&Threei}  mountains?
[11:44] {+cc_9} mountains = dont kill people
[11:44] {nemo} desert is a problem, because of mummification effect of dessicated environment
[11:44] {+cc_9} OR eat the remains
[11:44] {+cc_9} but thats not for anyone
01[11:44] {&Threei}  rofl
[11:44] {nemo} go see the Chinaman
[11:44] {Les} happy to be back in the lunatic asylum
[11:44] {Les} pig farm yeh
[11:45] {+cc_9} nemo, that is why u dont bury the entire body in the same hole
01[11:45] {&Threei}  just wanted to ask Les... didn't you miss this
[11:45] {+cc_9} Les, stop watching movies
[11:45] {nemo} finnies to weekly pivot, almost to 50 day
[11:45] {+cc_9} nemo the versatile guy : from mummification to pivots
01[11:45] {&Threei}  chaeron's first words after 30 min in the room were, Jeez, how I missed it
[11:45] {Les} frick yeh, security people take themselves too seriously
[11:45] {Les} rather be here
[11:45] {nemo} cc, you have to limit areas, you risk dna evidence contamination dragging things around
[11:45] {nemo} dna evidence is habeus corpus
[11:45] {Les} http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBvCPTK1MmY
[11:47] {+cc_9} brb fbi
[11:47] {RonS} at door?
[11:51] {nemo} I know this guy he got this one just outside of Boston:  http://bit.ly/15GQ1pj
[11:52] {nemo} bastids, hang out near the houses in suburbia
01[11:52] {&Threei}  - In a rare twist of irony, the Italian government is looking more functional than the US government this morning, as PdL members more and more lean toward supporting the Letta government while here in the United States simple cooperation for the public good seem to be impossible
[11:52] {nemo} usually got nothing to worry about
[11:53] {nemo} inflection points on iwm spy and finnies right here
[11:53] {Alexs} what is "simple cooperation for the public good"?
[11:54] {nemo} what, on that website?
[11:55] {nemo} markets seem to be doing fine without the government
[11:55] {RonS} ben not government?
[11:55] {nemo} actually the "Fed" is a private corporation
01[11:56] {&Threei}  ese, remember my story about waiting lines to purchase the car on USSR?
[11:56] {RonS} if it was private it would be bankrupt...
[11:56] {RonS} of course you are correct legally i guess...
01[11:57] {&Threei}  it's a private corporation granted the immunity from economic laws by the givernment, by means of allowing it to create money out of thin air
01[11:57] {&Threei}  so it's a worst of both worlds:
01[11:58] {&Threei}  do whatever you want under the disguise of public good, while distributing the goods as private corporation
[12:09] {Les} make yer 1:3 on CAT vad?
01[12:10] {&Threei}  it touched it, yes
[12:10] {Les} k. back for close a+
[12:11] {nemo} dltr
[12:13] {+cc_9} ok back
[12:17] {RonS} shld squeezin...
[12:26] {RonS} President Obama's statement from the White House delayed; now expected around 12:45 p.m. ET
[12:33] {jdetente} can we just delay him indefinitely
[12:34] {jdetente} send him to the golf course
[12:34] {dino} indeed
[12:38] {jdetente} golf a good walk spoiled
01[12:38] {&Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .30 break
01[12:43] {&Threei}  If holds  .35
01[12:46] {&Threei}  GLD is bottomless
[12:47] {Alexs} what about GDX?
01[12:47] {&Threei}  ?
[12:47] {Alexs} bottomless?
[12:49] {jdetente} bottomless...hmmm
[12:49] {Alexs} 23.90?
[12:49] {jdetente} invalidated now Alex
[12:49] {Alexs} yes I see
[12:52] {_sara} JCP db
01[12:53] {&Threei} Long Setup:  GLD  .05 break
01[12:53] {&Threei}  If holds  .95
01[12:55] {&Threei}  target 1:4
[12:55] {Alexs} topless?
[12:55] {fish_49} hahah
[12:55] {fish_49} ur too fast Alex
[12:55] {drewj} est kind
[12:55] {fish_49} I was typing that
[12:55] {drewj} best
01[12:56] {&Threei}  yes, unless the bottom falls out
[12:56] {Alexs} lol
[12:56] {jdetente} must resist making joke
01[12:56] {&Threei}  please do
[12:56] {nemo} why
[12:56] {drewj} no you need to make it
[12:57] {nemo} I missed the context
[12:57] {jdetente} I have nothing to say
[12:57] {jdetente} concentrating on topless GLD trade
[12:58] {drewj} that's better jd
[13:00] {nemo} sara still here?
[13:00] {nemo} oh yeah, nevermind
01[13:00] {&Threei}  guess who's on TV
[13:00] {nemo} Jonas Salk
01[13:00] {&Threei}  pointing fingers
[13:01] {nemo} Kruschev
[13:01] {jdetente} so tiring to hear his bs
01[13:01] {&Threei}  "one faction of one party"
[13:01] {+cc_9} Obama speaking
[13:01] {+cc_9} http://www.bloomberg.com/tv/
[13:01] {jdetente} and the sheeple will fall for it again and again
[13:01] {+cc_9} "The Debt Ceiling could have been my son"
01[13:01] {&Threei}  that's what sheeple do
[13:02] {nemo} good one CC
[13:02] {jdetente} This republican shutdown
[13:02] {jdetente} that's a good quote
01[13:02] {&Threei}  "The GOP acted stupidly"
01[13:02] {&Threei}  1:1
[13:02] {fish_49} George Bush is at fault
[13:03] {fish_49} 1/4 out
[13:04] {jdetente} The Campaigner in Chief
[13:04] {jdetente} he's brilliant at rhetoric
01[13:04] {&Threei}  the best at getting himself elected
01[13:05] {&Threei}  and golfing his way through the rest
[13:05] {dino} tctr
[13:05] {dino} txtr
[13:05] {nemo} All their lives they call themselves "men of Tao," and
[13:05] {nemo} all their lives they remain hypocrites. They know how
[13:05] {nemo} to give a good speech and tell appropriate anecdotes in
[13:05] {nemo} order to attract the crowd, but from the very beginning to
[13:05] {nemo} the very end, they do not know what it is all about. They
[13:05] {nemo} put on the proper garb and dress in the proper colors and
[13:05] {nemo} put on a decorous appearance in order to make themselves
[13:05] {nemo} popular, but refuse to admit that they are hypocrites.
[13:06] {nemo} They mingle with the crowd, and declare themselves in
[13:06] {nemo} agreement with what the public likes and dislikes, at the
[13:06] {nemo} same time claiming that they are better than the common
[13:06] {nemo} men. Such is the height of their folly!
01[13:06] {&Threei}  1:2
01[13:06] {&Threei}  step by step... inch by inch...
[13:06] {nemo} slowly I turn
[13:07] {nemo} finnies look like setting up for a breakout
[13:08] {jdetente} that was beautiful nemo *wipes tear from eye*
[13:09] {nemo} I'm channeling the Sages
06[13:09] * &Threei passesjd a tissue
[13:09] {nemo} hey detente type your nick then "/" then your comment
[13:10] {nemo} sorrry
06[13:10] * &Threei passes nemo flowers from jd
[13:10] {nemo} type "/me wipes tear from eye"
06[13:10] * nemo wipes tear from eye
06[13:11] * jdetente grabs shotgun
06[13:11] * jdetente locks and loads
[13:11] {nemo} there ya' go
06[13:11] * nemo grabs .416 Cheytec
06[13:11] * jdetente runs to the hills
06[13:11] * nemo lines up detente at 1800 meters
[13:12] {jdetente} this is not good
01[13:12] {&Threei}  out GLD balance on a trail
[13:12] {nemo} oops, mixed them up .416 Barret  .408 Cheytec
[13:12] {jdetente} nice one Vad
01[13:12] {&Threei}  ok... not what I really aimed for but not bad
01[13:12] {&Threei}  and takes the sting off
[13:12] {drewj} ty
01[13:13] {&Threei}  stink too
01[13:13] {&Threei}  yw
01[13:13] {&Threei}  one more decent trade and we are back in black
[13:14] {drewj} acdc...
[13:15] {jdetente} back in black I hit the sack...
[13:15] {drewj} http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAgnJDJN4VA
[13:15] {drewj} to help you along vad
01[13:16] {&Threei}  appreciate that
[13:16] {drewj} sure
[13:17] {jdetente} I was expecting this one from you drew...
[13:17] {jdetente} http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dm7jEA3frY4
01[13:17] {&Threei}  lordy... he is still talking
01[13:17] {&Threei}  and just said "I will speak of this in the next days"
[13:17] {drewj} that one's a classic jd
[13:18] {nemo} spy and iwm gonna go again..finnies now above their 50 day
[13:18] {jdetente} I think ese's band does a cover version
[13:19] {fish_49} out in full thanks Vad
[13:19] {drewj} jd i assumed you'd be looking at this one...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lm80WVZ_RXw
[13:19] {robbers} Out, thanks.
[13:20] {jdetente} lol
01[13:21] {&Threei}  1:3
[13:21] {fish_49} we are out Vad thanks
01[13:21] {&Threei}  son of as gun
01[13:21] {&Threei}  yw
[13:31] {+cc_9} BREAKING NEWS "Zoo Panda Cam turned off due to Shut Down "...thanks Obama
[13:32] {fish_49} if you were camping in a national park, would they actually throw you out?
[13:33] {jdetente} https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/383001224334671875
[13:35] {jdetente} that's an actual white house tweet...embarrassing
01[13:35] {&Threei}  you are kidding
01[13:35] {&Threei}  I thought it was a parody
[13:38] {fish_49} I received a long two page letter signed by Obama today, explaining why he was putting me on furlough
[13:39] {fish_49} he must have forgot that I retired
01[13:41] {&Threei}  just demand to be paid when shutdown is over
01[13:42] {&Threei}  the way they run things, you just might
[13:43] {fish_49} the last time it happened we received back pay
[13:43] {fish_49} even those that were not working
[13:44] {fish_49} this is the part that makes me laugh as if he had no control as the leader of our nation
[13:45] {fish_49} This shutdown was completely preventable. It should not have happened. And the House of Representatives can end it as soon as it follows the Senate's lead, and funds your work in the United States Government without trying to attach highly controversial and partisan measures in the process.
[13:52] {dino} sfy s .17
[13:57] {fish_49} cc you around?
[14:04] {dino} eqix drop
[14:05] {fish_49} who wrote the October-November 2013 Outlook?
01[14:07] {&Threei}  TradeTheNews
[14:08] {fish_49} good information
01[14:08] {&Threei}  I merely provide the service to you :)
[14:08] {dino} five spike
[14:09] {+cc_9} fish, good ?
[14:10] {dino} saic drop
[14:10] {fish_49} yep  thanks
[14:11] {Alexs} fb short .20?
[14:11] {dino} mgi drp
01[14:12] {&Threei}  or .30 long...
01[14:12] {&Threei}  not sure really
[14:13] {dino} saic hl l .88
[14:16] {dino} cov sfy .08, +.09
[14:21] {RonS} let the real games begin:  Air Force says travel for intercollegiate athletics cancelled due to shutdown, including football game at Navy on Saturday
[14:22] {nemo} but Congress gets paid
[14:22] {Alexs} fb worked nicely but without me
[14:22] {fish_49} chicken
[14:22] {fish_49} lol
[14:22] {nemo} spy finnie bounce point
[14:23] {nemo} iwm spy and fas all in proximity of vwp
[14:23] {nemo} vwap
[14:30] {dino} out saic .18, +.30
[14:31] {_sara} time to go, good night & trades
[14:31] {_sara} bye
[14:31] {dino} gn sara
[14:36] {dino} awe bummer saic
[14:37] {nemo} did cree have earnings?
[14:37] {dino} no, upgrade
[14:38] {nemo} somebody needed to get out
[14:38] {dino} yeah somebody had fast approaching oct calls
[14:40] {+cc_9} GDX looking better here
[14:42] {nemo} lotta rebate trading on that today]
01[14:47] {&Threei} Short Setup: TNA  .85 break
01[14:47] {&Threei}  If holds  .95
[14:51] {Alexs} valid?
01[14:52] {&Threei}  still yes
01[14:54] {&Threei}  no more :)
[14:59] {RonS} sina parabolic
01[15:03] {&Threei} Long Setup:  GLD  .45 break
01[15:04] {&Threei}  If holds  .40
01[15:07] {&Threei}  1:1
01[15:07] {&Threei}  whew! breaking into black
[15:07] {drewj} good work vad
01[15:08] {&Threei}  ty
01[15:08] {&Threei}  remain calm and trade :)
[15:08] {drewj} right
01[15:09] {&Threei}  to celebrate that, let me treat you to this spectale:
01[15:09] {&Threei}  https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=537962722949914&set=a.488848774527976.1073741828.483178015095052&type=1&theater
[15:09] {drewj} something topless?
01[15:09] {&Threei}  you wish
[15:09] {fish_49} I made 1;1 and got out using the DAS trader Pro
[15:09] {drewj} yes i do
[15:09] {fish_49} can't see a thing  font  so small
[15:09] {fish_49} lol
01[15:09] {&Threei}  and foolow-up: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=537992006280319&set=a.488848774527976.1073741828.483178015095052&type=1&theater
[15:10] {fish_49} Vad is there gold at the bottom of that rainbow?
[15:10] {drewj} good question...
[15:10] {drewj} nice picks vad
[15:11] {fish_49} CC when u get time  See PM
01[15:11] {&Threei}  if so, one would have to swim for it and ocean in our neck of the woods is anything but warm
[15:11] {fish_49} I can swim
[15:11] {fish_49} I promise to share with Alex
01[15:14] {&Threei}  I have just the shot for you, fish:
01[15:14] {&Threei}  https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=525320504214136&set=pb.483178015095052.-2207520000.1380654711.&type=3&theater
[15:14] {fish_49} Low Tide  wow  great pic
01[15:15] {&Threei}  see the pot of gold at the end of that rainbow? :)
[15:15] {robbers} Out half.
[15:15] {fish_49} It's a large chunk we can all retire  with that rock
[15:17] {dino} wgp drop
[15:18] {dino} gj robbers
[15:20] {robbers} thanks dino, means a lot from you.
[15:22] {dino} :)
[15:30] {nemo} 3:30 rally?
01[15:31] {&Threei}  1:2
01[15:31] {&Threei}  life is getting good again
[15:31] {Les} BD in SPY DB 3:20
01[15:32] {&Threei}  and I just got a call from my camera store... my new one will be shipped today or torrow
[15:32] {robbers} Out on the spike to 70.  Thanks much.
01[15:32] {&Threei}  :)
[15:32] {fish_49} Realized P/L $260  Unrealized P/L $310
01[15:32] {&Threei}  can't wait to get my paws on it
[15:32] {fish_49} what model  Vad?
01[15:33] {&Threei}  Olympus OMD E-M1
[15:33] {fish_49} all of your lens will fit the new camera?
01[15:33] {&Threei}  yes
[15:33] {robbers} Will look forward to those expensive photos, Vad.
01[15:33] {&Threei}  :)
[15:34] {robbers} Funny, I still have an Olympus OM-1, great camera but takes film, LOL.
01[15:34] {&Threei}  well, what do you know
01[15:34] {&Threei}  this line of OMD is styled after OMs
01[15:34] {&Threei}  it's actually abbreaviation of OM Digital
[15:35] {fish_49} around $1400?
[15:36] {nemo} looks like mutual funds gonna get the high tick
01[15:37] {&Threei}  yes fish
[15:40] {dino} ok, calling it a day, about 30% over target. not giving it back. gn and thx all
[15:41] {robbers} I shot pictures for my college newspaper, The Florida Alligator, and used the Olympus.  All the other guys shot with the Nikon F5.  They called me a pansy for using the Olympus.
01[15:41] {&Threei}  great job dino
[15:41] {robbers} cya dino.
[15:41] {Les} cheers dino
[15:41] {+cc_9} fish, check message
[15:42] {Les} a domani a+
[15:42] {dino} thx
01[15:43] {&Threei}  pansy, eh... my E-5 doubles as a street fight weapon and a hammer in case you have a nail to hit
01[15:43] {&Threei}  built like tank
01[15:44] {&Threei}  magnesium alloy body, weatherproof to a degree of risnign it under the shower
[15:45] {robbers} The Nikon was the size and weight of a wrecking ball, the Olympus much lighter and more agile while same lens quality.
[15:45] {drewj} good come back vad...
01[15:45] {&Threei}  that was OM claim to fame
[15:45] {drewj} have a good evening all
01[15:45] {&Threei}  take care drew, good job keeping calm
01[15:45] {&Threei}  gettign a handle on this thing eh?
[15:46] {drewj} yea I wasn't really upset this morning...
[15:46] {drewj} just dissapointed
01[15:46] {&Threei}  that will pass too
[15:46] {drewj} ok
01[15:46] {&Threei}  sometime losses go in clusters
[15:46] {robbers} Those guys just thought the Nikon was manly, really it was just stupid.  Unless you use it for self-defense, as you suggested Vad.
01[15:46] {&Threei}  known as clusterf*&ks
[15:46] {drewj} i'm looking forward to making more money
[15:46] {drewj} lol
[15:47] {drewj} thanks...
[15:47] {drewj} see you tomorrow
01[15:47] {&Threei}  take care
01[15:47] {&Threei}  same thing happens now with full fram warriors robbers
[15:47] {robbers} How do you mean?
01[15:48] {&Threei}  they are all manly and superior
01[15:48] {&Threei}  in their own mind
01[15:48] {&Threei}  all good until their backs give up under those 5 kg kits
[15:48] {robbers} LOL
[15:49] {jdetente} alright Vad. Ending day strong. Thanks for the fish. See ya tomorrow
01[15:49] {&Threei}  all for hypothetical 3% image quality advantage in some situations, vs cropped sensors
[15:49] {nemo} 5kg "kits"  boy, must need a strong bra
01[15:49] {&Threei}  lol
01[15:49] {&Threei}  Ok guiys, thank yiou all
[15:49] {nemo} on that note...
01[15:49] {&Threei}  quite happy with comeback
01[15:49] {&Threei}  have a great evening
01[15:49] {&Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:54] {fish_49} take care all
[15:54] {robbers} Later.

Monday, September 30, 2013

October-November 2013 Outlook: The World Series

TradeTheNews.com October-November 2013 Outlook: The World Series


With the World Series just around the corner, the baseball playoffs provides an apt metaphor for the global outlook: after a grueling summer of hard fought battles, the real game is just beginning. In the past few months, global markets have been characterized by broad swings, particularly in currencies and government bonds, as markets anticipate tighter US monetary policy. Though the Fed declined to cut back its bond buying program at its September meeting, tapering is in the on deck circle.

Despite nervousness about the impending withdrawal of quantitative easing, there are certainly some bright spots, most visibly in the US stock market. For the second straight year the S&P500 has not retested its January opening level, and barring an outright crash will not do so for the rest of the year, a hitting streak that has only occurred once before, in 1975-1976 (ending with a down day on the first trading day of 1977). The extraordinary longevity of this stock market rally has been supported by monetary policy and nurtured by measured by improved corporate results.

Still the curtailment of QE3 portends the eventual lifting of extraordinary measures by central banks across the globe, shifting focus to fiscal policy authorities who have a lot of catching up to do. After years of central banks propping up the global economy, fiscal policy makers must finally take their turn at the plate. The re-election of German Chancellor Merkel should help move along European efforts to pull together for more Europe, while in the US Congress is taking another stab at a budget deal even as the Fed contemplates its first pull back from extraordinary measures. Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Abe is on the threshold of announcing details of the third arrow of his economic turnaround policy. The direction of the next leg of the world market will be largely dependent on how these policies are crafted and received.

No Joy in Mudville

Looking an awful lot like Casey at the Bat, Washington is about to take its third swing at a budget deal after rebuffing two chances for a grand bargain (resulting in the 2011 sovereign downgrade and the Sequester). The dysfunction on Capitol Hill has reached such a level that it feels as if Congress has turned brinkmanship into the new national pastime. Following what has become standard operating procedure, Congress has squandered the entire summer, again waiting to the last minute to address the budget authorization measure. This time round House Republicans are attempting to use the publics unease with Obamacare and the threat of a government shutdown to gain leverage over the budget process.

In the event of a government shutdown, the Treasury will maintain normal borrowing and debt operations, but the Commerce and Labor Departments have said they will not collect or release data, including the key monthly employment figures due out on October 4. A dearth of hard economic data could spook markets, particularly when the Feds pending decision on tapering is so data dependent. In the end, legislators will likely follow their established pattern, taking the issue to the eleventh hour or beyond, perhaps forcing a brief government shutdown, but ultimately agreeing to some form of stopgap spending bill to keep the government open for a few more months.

But in D.C.s fiscal double header, the stopgap spending bill is only a warm-up to the rubber match, namely the debt ceiling debate. US Treasury Secretary Lew recently stated that his departments extraordinary measures to extend the debt limit will be exhaust by October 17 leaving it with no ability to borrow, and the CBO has estimated that the Treasury will have to begin prioritizing payments or actually default sometime between October 22 and October 31. This gives Congress only a couple weeks to go from loggerheads to an agreement.

Ratings agencies Moodys and Fitch will be watching the proceedings in D.C. as closely as anyone. Their peers at S&P downgraded the US sovereign rating from AAA to AA+ in August 2011 after the original debt ceiling showdown took the reputation of Congress to an all-time low. At the time, S&P made it clear that the downgrade was based largely on the political dysfunction in Washington. The counterintuitive move in the treasury market after the S&P downgrade, with investors plowing even more money into the relative safety of US government debt, may have added to the complacency over the debt ceiling issue among politicians who now might be convinced another downgrade will have no ill effect. They may be right, or a second ratings cut could trigger the disaster that some predicted after the S&P downgrade. No one knows for sure.

In July, Moodys resolved a ratings review by raising its outlook on the US sovereign back to stable from negative, citing an improved debt trajectory (thanks to the blind cuts imposed by the sequester), and indicated it did not see the need for further review in the near term. Fitch, however, warned several times this year that, while it does not anticipate a repeat of the debt ceiling crisis of August 2011, a failure to raise the debt ceiling in a timely fashion would prompt a review and likely downgrade of the nations AAA rating.

This fiscal battle will continue to repeat on instant replay until Congress and the President find the determination to come to a grand bargain for a long term budget. The ultimate shape of such a deal will have to be crafted to satisfy the constituencies of both sides that they did not violate their core values. This might involve restoring military funding lost to the sequester by finding some $200B in additional savings from long standing programs like farm subsidies, while largely preserving Medicare and Social Security entitlements that are sacrosanct to Democrats, and raising select taxes on special government services but labeling them as service fees so Republicans can save face. Until such a deal is struck, the kick-the-can pattern in Washington could continue indefinitely.

Mrs. October

While US fiscal policy has been in a shambles, Fed monetary policy has kept a steadying hand on markets. Thus the surprise decision to hold off on tapering bond purchases in September may have further chipped away at the Feds credibility, as the central banks transparency joined its shaky economic projections on the disabled list. Several FOMC members have described the decision not to taper at the September policy meeting as a close call, and in the next breath say that tepid data could justify delaying the process to December or even into early 2014. At the September press conference, Bernanke may have confused things more by insisting that the Fed never said it would taper at that meeting, but also suggesting they could start curtailing QE as soon as the economic data justified it, going so far as to say he could arrange an impromptu press teleconference in October if needed. After muddling its message, the Fed needs to redouble its efforts to clarify its communications.

This effort is especially tricky because no matter how the policy is communicated, markets are naturally forward-looking and will inevitably perceive tapering as a step toward the larger exit strategy. The Fed has done its best to break this link, often reiterating that the end of QE3 is on an entirely separate track than interest rate policy, and more recently downplaying the unofficial 7% unemployment milepost for ending QE that created confusion by echoing the formal 6.5% unemployment threshold for considering tighter rates. The 6.5% threshold has also been softened too in order to convince markets it is not a trigger for a rate hike, the Fed doves are now suggesting that they could wait until well after joblessness moves past that point before tightening.

One uncertainty that will be lifted in October is the question of who will lead the Fed for the next four years. Most Fed watchers think Bernanke has pitched a good game, but it will be up to his reliever to close out the extraordinary stimulus program. In the face of what may have been an embarrassing Senate panel rejection, President Obamas first choice, Larry Summers, stepped aside, leaving Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen as the overwhelming favorite to replace Bernanke. In addition to her impeccable economic credentials, as an architect of the Feds strategy to buy assets and keep interest rates low until unemployment retreats below 6.5%, Yellen would clearly create the most seamless and consistent policy transition from the Bernanke era. In the current political climate, her confirmation may face some opposition from Republicans who think Bernanke is too dovish and consider Yellen, a Democrat, as even worse. But she has already developed significant Democratic support in the Senate which should ensure her confirmation. In reviewing his choices, President Obama is not likely to signal for a righty from the bullpen, but the leading alternative candidate now appears to be former Fed Vice-Chairman Donald Kohn, who is highly respected among international central bankers and is seen as apolitical, which may be more palatable to Republicans.

Trouble with the Curve

Emerging markets have been disproportionately hit by the Feds tapering pitch: ever since Bernanke started talking about pulling back QE, emerging economies have taken it the hardest. For example, the Indian rupee and Brazilian real each depreciated by more than 20 percent between May and August, and in that same timeframe the main stock indices in both countries have experienced dizzying gyrations. Commenting on the emerging markets vulnerability to Fed tapering, the IMF recently concluded that tighter US monetary policy could dampen growth in the emerging markets which could in turn engender a global slowdown and compel interventions to prevent excessive volatility.

Even the star player of the emerging markets, China, had a problematic summer. Its economy has been in a bit of a lull, posting lackluster PMI and manufacturing readings for most of the year, causing some analysts to question its 7.5% GDP target. But headed into the National Day golden week holiday in the first week of October, there have been a few signs that these measures are turning upward again. The September HSBC flash manufacturing PMI reading chalked up its second consecutive month of expansion and a six-month high, while the official manufacturing survey has been in a phase of modest expansion for 12 straight months. The Q3 GDP report due in mid-October will tell the tale of whether this recent upturn in economic data amounted to an improving growth trend. Even if it has, Chinas growth will still be challenged headed into 2014 as the government works on reforms aimed at correcting structural problems of overcapacity in some key industries, which will be a long-term benefit but short-term drag on the economy.

Middle East Crisis Goes Into Extra Innings

The batting average for Middle East crisis resolution is very low, but some seemingly positive developments in the most intractable problems of the region have tamped down tensions, at least for the moment. A new round of Israeli/Palestinian peace talks have begun, a tentative UN plan to control and destroy Syrias chemical weapons has averted a US military intervention, protests continue in Egypt but the level of violence has subsided, and Irans new President is suddenly spouting conciliatory words on the nuclear issue.

Irans charm offensive at the UN gathering in late September led many officials to believe that the new Iranian President Rohani may indeed be moderating his governments stance as he seeks to end debilitating sanctions. Rohani promises to present a new nuclear plan at a mid-October meeting with the major powers (P5+1) in Geneva in an effort to achieve quick and tangible results. Much attention will be given to these meetings to see whether Rohani is truly taking Iran in a new direction, or if hes merely presenting the same old delaying tactics with a new face.

Developments in all of these theaters of the Middle East will continue to impact the energy market. For example, as Egypts interim leadership promises the transitional phase of government should end by next spring, any fresh outbreak of violence could renew fears about Suez Canal traffic. Another spot in the region to watch is Libya, which has protests of its own that have disrupted oil production and shipping facilities for months. The fledgling government and state oil company have been unable to prevent political activists and militia groups from disrupting the flow of its coveted oil and the lost revenue (over $100M a day since July) may soon cause budgetary problems that could aggravate the situation.

As unpredictable as Middle East politics, Mother Nature is another wildcard for the energy market. The 2013 hurricane season was forecast to be very active, but so far it has spared Gulf of Mexico oil and gas operations, with its biggest impact being a series of storms in Mexico that caused severe mudslides which could shave a tenth of a percent off of that nations GDP. There are still two months before the Atlantic hurricane season ends (November 30), and with eight years gone by since Katrina, the Gulf may be due for a disruptive storm.

Breaking Europes Slump

In recent months Europe is most notable for how quiet it has become. After two years of going from crisis to crisis, things have finally stabilized in the last year. Euro Zone unemployment appears to have leveled off at just above 12% and most of the continent has returned to modest GDP growth after a shallow double dip recession. Spains banking troubles have diminished, Greece is digging out of its hole a little faster than planned, Cyprus is out of the headlines, and Ireland is working toward fully returning itself to the debt markets for funding.

This period of relative calm has allowed the ECB to quietly withdraw from headline-grabbing discussions of untested policy options like negative deposit rates. Instead the central bank has been able to turn to inside baseball consultations on aspects surrounding European banking system reform. Officials are delving into increasingly technical discussions of the single supervisory mechanism (SSM) for banks that is set to go into effect for the largest institutions next year, and the related asset quality review that is currently being conducted at those banks. There is also some low-key talk that the ECB may consider launching another Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) to ensure banks liquidity.

Unfortunately, Europes political scene is less placid. After inconclusive Italian elections in February, the sparring parties agreed to support centrist Enrico Letta as Prime Minister, allowing government business to resume. But a legal and political battle over former PM Berlusconis seat in the Senate may unravel this delicate coalition. Several times, members of Berlusconis center-right PDL party have threatened withdraw support for the government unless the former PM is pardoned from his legal troubles and his Senate seat is preserved. The most recent squawking from the PDL has PM Letta fed up, and he is now demanding a confidence vote, saying we either renew support and put Italys interests first, or we can end this government experience. If the PDL decides it doesnt want to play ball with a non-partisan like Letta, it is unclear who would be able to lead a new government in Italy, potentially sending the Euro Zone back into crisis mode.

The political process has gone more smoothly in Germany, where Chancellor Angela Merkel was just re-elected to a third four-year term. Her party had its best showing since 1990, but its former coalition partner, the FDP, failed to reach the 5% threshold needed to be seated in the Bundestag. Thus Merkel will have to form a coalition government with the main opposition SPD party or with the Greens. The most likely outcome appears to be a grand coalition with the center-left SPD, which is eyeing the finance or labor ministry portfolio as a down payment for its cooperation. To entice the SPD, Merkel allies have already suggested some concessions on taxes and minimum wages, which should smooth the process of establishing a coalition by mid-November when the SPD party convention would vote on approving a unity deal.

A Rare Triple Play

Japans days of political turnover appear to be at an end, as Prime Minister Abe has solidified his hold on the government and pushed ahead with his eponymous economic program aimed at snapping the nations economic growth back into the Big Leagues. The three arrows of Abenomics are massive monetary stimulus to beat deflation with the side effect of a weaker yen, a deficit-financed supplemental budget filled with new public works spending, and a reform program to boost growth and competitiveness by stimulating private investment (upon winning the bid for the 2020 Summer Olympics, Abe called the Tokyo Games the unofficial fourth arrow, acting as a natural bookend to judge Japans progress seven years hence).

At the outset of Abes shock and awe plan many observers, including the IMFs chief economist, called the policy risky given the frontloading of monetary stimulus, and some volatile moments in the Japanese markets seemed to bear out this assessment. But this volatility has eased the Nikkei index has found a range between 13,000 and 15,000 and the yen has settled near parity and it appears some progress is being made toward the goals of Abenomics. Many economists questioned whether the target of reaching 2% inflation within two years was realistic, but progress is being made. CPI data has risen for three straight months and national core CPI hit 0.8% in August, the highest rate since the start of the 2008 global financial crisis.

The biggest fear for Japan, with its enormous debt market, would be another sudden uncontrolled jump in interest rates like the one seen in May, when the key 10-year rate nearly doubled in a matter of days. If rate rises are not more gradual and supported by a commensurate rise in economic activity it could turn the three arrows into three strikes, shattering Japans faith in Abenomics.

This is what makes the implementation of Japans impending consumption tax increase such a delicate matter. On October 1, Abe is expected to formally approve a two-stage sales tax increase starting early next year. Reports indicate that Abe will try to offset the impact on consumers by offering a stimulus package and corporate tax cuts that will be structured to motivate employers to pass the benefits on to employees who will then spend it into the economy. This will be the first big test of Abenomics for investors who are concerned that the program has relied too heavily on financial engineering and wont gain traction unless there is follow through on structural reforms. Some skeptics are already predicting that the BOJ will be forced to add more quantitative easing as early as Q4 to keep the plan in motion.

The Closer

If policy makers can clear up some uncertainties, markets could see a real Fall Classic, but if they start chalking up more errors, the next few months could get ugly. This summer the odds of another Euro Zone meltdown or an economy-damaging US budget stalemate looked low, but simmering disputes have erupted again into new potential crises.

If Italys political feuds erupt into full blown turmoil, it could undo a years worth of recovery in Europe. The real risk would be another sovereign downgrade which could cause funding costs to soar. Japan also carries the risk of bond markets coming unhinged if the third phase of Abenomics turns out to be a bloop single instead of a home run.

In the US, a robust stock market headed into another round of solid quarterly earnings reports could lead Congress to underestimate the impact of another scrap over the debt ceiling. The anticipated kinks in the start-up of state health insurance exchanges mandated by Obamacare to begin on October 1 could also lend Republicans some ammunition to continue their fight. But a rookie Fed Chairman on the mound will not be able to pitch the economy out of a jam if Congress toys with default.

Very low inflation gives the Fed leeway to continue QE indefinitely, but the perception that the FOMC misled markets about a September taper may increase the pressure to communicate more precisely about the schedule for tapering. It also may be that the FOMC held off entirely because of the uncertainty around the budget battle in Washington and could move ahead with the taper once that sticky situation is resolved.

Though the Fed, and now other central banks, are promising rates will stay ultra-low for a long time, at some point markets will again focus on tapering which could cause some fresh volatility as weak hands are forced out. Turning off the QE tap will only be the first step in a long process of central banks unwinding five years of extraordinary stimulus, and how the market contends with it will shed some light on how the global economy will fare in the post-steroid era.


CALENDAR

OCTOBER
1: EU Unemployment readings; UK manufacturing PMI; US ISM manufacturing PMI; China National Day Golden Week (through Oct 7); Obamacare state health exchanges begin operation
2: ECB policy statement; Italy confidence vote on PM Letta (tentative); China non-manufacturing PMI
3: UK services PMI; EU retail sales; US ISM non-manufacturing PMI; US factory orders; BOJ policy statement
4: US payrolls and unemployment (may be postponed by govt shutdown)

8: US trade balance; BOJ minutes
9: UK manufacturing; minutes of Sept FOMC meeting
10: BOE policy statement
11: US retail sales; prelim Michigan consumer sentiment
12: China trade balance (subject to change)

13: China CPI and PPI (subject to change)
14: Euro Zone industrial production
15: UK CPI; start of 2-day meeting in Geneva between Iran and P5+1
16: UK unemployment; German ZEW sentiment; US CPI
17: US housing starts and building permits; Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index; US debt ceiling reached, extraordinary measures exhausted; China Q3 GDP and industrial production (subject to change)
18: UK retail sales

21: US existing home sales; Japan trade balance
22: German Ifo business climate
23: BOE inflation letter and minutes; China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI
24: Various Euro Zone flash PMI readings; US new home sales; Japan retail sales and industrial production; Japan Core CPI
25: German retail sales; UK prelim Q3 GDP; US durable goods orders; G7 minister meetings

28: US pending home sales
29: US consumer confidence
30: US advance Q3 GDP (1st reading); FOMC policy statement
31: Euro Zone unemployment; US personal spending; Chicago PMI; China manufacturing PMI
NOVEMBER
1: UK manufacturing PMI; US payrolls and unemployment; US ISM manufacturing PMI
2: China services PMI

4: US factory orders
5: UK services PMI; US trade balance; US ISM non-manufacturing PMI: Japan prelim Q3 GDP
6: UK manufacturing; EU retail sales
7: BOE policy statement; ECB policy statement; China CPI and PPI (subject to change)
8: China trade balance and industrial production (subject to change)

12: UK CPI
13: UK unemployment; BOE inflation report
14: Euro Zone prelim Q3 GDP readings; US retail sale and PPI
15: UK retail sales; EU CPI; US CPI; prelim Michigan consumer sentiment
14-16: German SPD party convention (required to vote on an coalition government deal)

19: US housing starts and building permits
20: German ZEW sentiment; US existing home sales; FOMC minutes; Japan trade balance; BOJ policy statement
21: German Ifo business climate; Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index; China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI
22: Euro Zone flash manufacturing PMI readings; UK Q3 GDP (2nd reading)

25: US pending home sales; BOJ minutes
26: US prelim Q3 GDP (2nd reading); US consumer confidence
27: US durable goods orders; US new home sales
28: German unemployment; Japan household spending; Japan core CPI
29: German retail sales; Euro Zone unemployment; Chicago PMI
30: China manufacturing PMI; Atlantic hurricane season ends



Sept 30 2013

Good morning and questionable afternoon, as market focused on this endless buzz about shutdown (shut it down or shut up already!) Overall, slightly positive to flat day.


Session Time: Mon Sep 30 00:00:00 2013
[08:49] {dino} gm
[08:49] {nemo} Marriage is exchanging the praises of many for the criticism of one
[08:50] {nemo} Patriots took a HUGE hit to their defense last night
[08:51] {dino} my jets just can't seem to get a quarterback
[08:51] {nemo} that' always a crap shoot...anyway WIlfork done for the year
[08:52] {cipher} gm
01[08:52] {&Threei}  morning guys
[08:55] {jdetente} morning all
01[08:57] {&Threei}  jd :)
[09:00] {nemo} http://t.co/zCsOKoh6fU
[09:05] {RonS} gm
01[09:06] {&Threei}  ron :)
[09:14] {fish_49} gm all
[09:14] {fish_49} we gapping down this am?
01[09:14] {&Threei}  fish :)
01[09:14] {&Threei}  we are
[09:15] {nemo} turn the chart right side up
[09:15] {fish_49} Good Morning nemo
[09:15] {nemo} like fingernails across a blackboard
[09:16] {nemo} had to break up another stand-off between my father and bunny last night
[09:17] {nemo} It would make a great comedy scene
[09:18] {RonS} Deliverance banjo background music or Leone spaghetti western?
01[09:18] {&Threei}  lol
[09:18] {ese} morning
01[09:19] {&Threei}  so, government shutdown or no?
01[09:19] {&Threei}  ese :)
[09:19] {fish_49} gm ese
[09:19] {fish_49} I say No
[09:19] {fish_49} but it will go right up to the wire
01[09:19] {&Threei}  that's how it usually went
[09:19] {ese} morning fish
01[09:19] {&Threei}  but they seem to run out of time this time
[09:20] {fish_49} yea  I think The dems win this time and the Republicans cave in last minute  to live to fight another day
[09:21] {nemo} the republicans can't win the shutdown fight...never have
[09:24] {jdetente} yeah this is a no win for the repubs
[09:24] {ese} one hell of a bureaucracy you guys got goin down there
[09:24] {+cc_9} good morning all
[09:24] {jdetente} They win, they lose. They lose, they lose. hehe
[09:24] {ese} cc
[09:24] {nemo} every government is one helluva bureaucracy
01[09:25] {&Threei}  cc :)
[09:25] {jdetente} but at least Obama has our best interests at heart
[09:25] {fish_49} lol
[09:25] {fish_49} and your money in his wallet
[09:25] {ese} true enough nemo
[09:25] {+cc_9} here is what they will do : act as if they are not agreeing, last minute they will delay a provision to "change" "obamacare" for 1 year so they can say "see, we negotiated"
[09:26] {fish_49} IMHO no 1 year delay
01[09:26] {&Threei}  ironically as it is, the guy elected to advance equality, presided over the biggest in history money transfer away from middle class
[09:26] {jdetente} so true
[09:26] {Alexs} gm
[09:26] {dino} well, his version of equality differs from yours
01[09:26] {&Threei}  alex :)
01[09:27] {&Threei}  obviously dino, lol
[09:27] {fish_49} it's like watching the bears and bulls fight ..  I want to be on the right side of the trade when the blood clean up crew comes in
[09:28] {drewj} gm
01[09:28] {&Threei}  drew :)
[09:28] {ese} drew
[09:28] {fish_49} GM Drew
[09:29] {drewj} hi guys...good weekend?
01[09:29] {&Threei}  this is going to be one of those push me pull me days
[09:29] {nemo} pushmepullyou
[09:29] {nemo} sheesh...get your Dr. Doolittle straight
01[09:29] {&Threei}  when each new word from one of congress idiots can send markey up or down in a hurry
01[09:30] {&Threei}  so let's be careful and don't commit too much
[09:30] {nemo} 167.20 is spy S4 daily
01[09:30] {&Threei} Short Setup: GDL  .80 break hl
[09:30] {nemo} 167.16 is the weekly S2
01[09:30] {&Threei}  GLD
01[09:31] {&Threei}  If holds  .90
[09:31] {+cc_9} GMCr long 71.50 starter
[09:31] {+cc_9} target 72.50+
01[09:32] {&Threei}  meh
[09:32] {+cc_9} GMCR } $72.00
[09:32] {cipher} +.35 GMCR thx cc
[09:33] {+cc_9} nice cipher
[09:34] {cipher} IRBT l.50
01[09:37] {&Threei} Short Setup: GLD  128 break
01[09:37] {&Threei}  hl again
[09:39] {+cc_9} Out GMCR 72.55 +$1.05, beautiful start
[09:39] {+cc_9} lovely lovely lovely stock
01[09:39] {&Threei}  wtg
[09:39] {fish_49} congrats CC
[09:39] {+cc_9} thank you
[09:41] {ese} nice one cc
[09:41] {dino} out irbt +.30 ty cipher
[09:41] {cipher} out IRBT .07 +.57
[09:41] {cipher} gj dino
[09:42] {+cc_9} GMCR pushing $73 now
01[09:42] {&Threei}  stop .08
[09:43] {ese} LVS raised to 77 at Atlantic Equities
[09:43] {+cc_9} Not a great exit on GMCR, but consolation in the bottom entry
[09:43] {ese} that your firm nemo
01[09:43] {&Threei}  1:1
[09:43] {ese} from 66
01[09:44] {&Threei}  1:2
01[09:45] {&Threei}  *(US) SEPT CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER: 55.7 V 54E (4-MONTH HIGH)
[09:45] {robbers} Out, thanks.
01[09:45] {&Threei}  yw
01[09:45] {&Threei}  lol, missed exit copying numbers
[09:45] {fish_49} you think that is what caused that push up?
01[09:46] {&Threei}  doesn't look this way to me
[09:46] {+cc_9} fish, i think just technical bounce, i don't think they will have an obvious reversal in the markets today, maybe tomorrow
[09:46] {cipher} REGN s.313.91
[09:46] {ese} maybe that and market finally realised they had a panic attack and are now correcting
[09:46] {fish_49} ty CC
[09:46] {cipher} REGN almost $15 runup
[09:47] {fish_49} that was one hell of a gap this am
[09:47] {ese} if your looking for over reaction city fish this is the place to find it
[09:47] {ese} the stupidity that goes on here sometimes is un imaginable
01[09:48] {&Threei}  "here" as in...?
01[09:48] {&Threei} Short Setup: C  48 break hl
01[09:48] {&Threei}  If holds  .10
[09:48] {ese} the market
[09:48] {fish_49} I think he means  Nemo?
[09:48] {fish_49} oh the market
[09:48] {fish_49} lol
[09:53] {Alexs} C valid?
[09:53] {dino} pru sm l .01
01[09:54] {&Threei}  no
01[09:54] {&Threei} Short Setup: C  .10 break
01[09:54] {&Threei}  If holds  .15
[09:55] {drewj} still hl?
[09:55] {dino} bofi sm l .60 thin
01[09:55] {&Threei}  no, with such small stop full
01[10:00] {&Threei}  meh
[10:06] {+cc_9} SPY back to session highs
[10:06] {dino} out pru .31, +.30
[10:06] {nemo} 50 day around 168.20
01[10:09] {&Threei} Long Setup:  MET  .65 break
01[10:09] {&Threei}  If holds  .55
[10:12] {cipher} REGN s.318.64
[10:14] {+cc_9} oh god...HLF, why
[10:14] {+cc_9} This is the kind of move I was looking for with GMCR...
[10:15] {+cc_9} HLF 67 to 70 straight up
01[10:15] {&Threei}  (US) House Speaker Boehner (R-OH): "The House has done its work," the Senate should pass the House bill to delay the Affordable care act (ACA, Obamacare) and repeal the medical device tax
[10:18] {fish_49} the market likes that news
01[10:19] {&Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .10 break
01[10:19] {&Threei}  If holds  25
[10:19] {+cc_9} fish, what I meant earlier by 1 year delay
[10:19] {+cc_9} its not the law they will try to delay
[10:20] {+cc_9} they will delay their "provision" to "fight" the "law" for 1 year
[10:20] {+cc_9} to "save" (orange) "face"
[10:20] {ese} anybody on this board go long cgix when it was say 12 to 14 bucks
[10:20] {dino} wprt l .30
[10:20] {ese} in 3 days your 10 to 12 bucks up
[10:21] {dino} ese, no but shorted it friday 20.85 to 19.90s
[10:22] {dino} crazy trader, careful w/it, moves in .50 trades
[10:22] {ese} whoa....good short
[10:23] {ese} not gonna do anything with it.......have just been observing it since last thursday
[10:25] {ese} "The House has done its work," hmmmmmmmmmm......it's in gods hands now
[10:26] {RonS} guess they agree w/ O supporters that he is god...
01[10:26] {&Threei}  lol
[10:26] {dino} lol
01[10:26] {&Threei}  GDX 1:1
[10:30] {+cc_9} watching people getting killed shorting FB all morning...
[10:30] {ese} dallas fed way up
[10:30] {ese} 12.8 v 5.0
[10:30] {cipher} SDS l .56
01[10:31] {&Threei}  MET stop to .59
[10:31] {+cc_9} scalp i hope cipher
01[10:32] {&Threei}  look at the components ese
01[10:32] {&Threei}  Production: 11.5 v 7.3 prior - Capacity Utilization: 10.7 v 4.6 prior - New orders 5.0 v 5.4 prior - New order growth rate 0.9 v 2.2 prior - Shipments 10.3 v 11.4 prior - Raw materials prices paid 17.6 v 10.0 prior - Wages and benefits 9.7 v 14.5 prior - Employment 10 v 11.2 prior
01[10:32] {&Threei}  this is horrible numbers
01[10:33] {&Threei}  catastrophic would be better word
[10:34] {cipher} cov REGN 316.51 +2.13
[10:34] {ese} just saw original number
01[10:34] {&Threei}  and that's how this whole "recovery" is sold - glistering numbers on the surface, rust and dirt under the hood
[10:35] {RonS} gj cipher
01[10:35] {&Threei}  New order growth rate 0.9 v 2.2
01[10:35] {&Threei}  Shipments 10.3 v 11.4 prior
[10:35] {fish_49} numbers are confusing   Production up but orders down
01[10:35] {&Threei}  so where does the good number come from?
01[10:35] {&Threei}  here:
01[10:35] {&Threei}  Raw materials prices paid 17.6 v 10.0 prior
01[10:35] {&Threei}  and here:
01[10:35] {&Threei}  Wages and benefits 9.7 v 14.5 prior - Employment 10 v 11.2 prior
01[10:35] {&Threei}  prices are up, wages and employment are down
[10:36] {fish_49} costing more to produce and producing without orders
01[10:36] {&Threei}  great economic number is presented, because manufacturer charges more and pays less
[10:36] {fish_49} Finished goods inventories will be out of whack
01[10:36] {&Threei}  see now what I meant in the morning saying "huge wealth transfer"?
01[10:37] {&Threei}  and the ridiculous thing is that left applauds it - the same left that was always for equality
[10:37] {fish_49} the markets not reacting to those numbers
01[10:37] {&Threei}  nothing is what it seems
01[10:37] {&Threei}  MET 1:1
[10:37] {fish_49} maybe it's good news? delayed tapering?  lol
[10:37] {ese} somebody lied to me............whos responsible for that..........come on now....fess up eh!
01[10:38] {&Threei}  we are all getting lied to all our life
01[10:38] {&Threei}  it's just that some choose to believe
01[10:38] {&Threei}  and some open the hood and look under it
01[10:39] {&Threei}  fish, at this point market doesn't care about those things - govt shutdown possibility is a bigger, ummm, fish to fry
[10:40] {fish_49} Sad
[10:41] {fish_49} but I'm ok with it...
[10:41] {nemo} grindup to gap close
[10:41] {+cc_9} see again, SPY slow and steady bounce
[10:42] {+cc_9} dismal volume, but its being bought
[10:42] {cipher} REGN L 317.35
[10:42] {nemo} all indexes
[10:42] {cipher} out 318.09 +.74
[10:43] {RonS} took bofi .55 out 64.15 +.60  thanks dino
[10:43] {cipher} SDS stopped .53 -.03
[10:43] {ese} ok dino i went small cgix at 21.01 400shs...put a limit order in....didn't want to make call on the board because this one was a scary proposition am out .60
[10:43] {ese} tks for the advice was surprised it got filled
[10:44] {RonS} lol...you post late anyway...would not have mattered...jus sayin...
[10:44] {ese} look at that spread now ....for a couple of seconds almost 90 cents
[10:45] {RonS} oh and btw gj ese
[10:46] {ese} lol
[10:47] {cipher} SDS L .50
[10:48] {+cc_9} GMCR the gift that keeps on giving
[10:50] {ese} you can join me on tibx ron if you want posted that last week for a swing trade at .51, you can get in .33 cheaper if you want......i'm long 2500shs of it
[10:51] {dino} gj ron on bofi
[10:51] {dino} gj es
[10:52] {ese} call that one bull s**t dino......I have no skill with those
[10:52] {ese} plain and simple luck there
[10:52] {dino} luck is part of it
[10:52] {ese} i guess
[10:53] {RonS} 1.  willingness to throw the crap against the wall 2.  luck that it will stick....
[10:54] {RonS} 3.  having a stop if it doesn't...
[10:54] {ese} do you just kinda figure out a price range or something with a stock like that......cause how can you actually guage price momentum with spreads from anywhere upwards of 30 cents
[10:55] {ese} question for you there dino
01[10:55] {&Threei}  lol ron
[10:56] {dino} price range, try to short around high, can't at bids they are too far apart
[10:56] {ese} ya for sure....understatement on that one
[10:57] {dino} takes patience on entry
[10:57] {ese} do you limit order those
[10:57] {RonS} poor patience...
[10:57] {dino} out bofi .25, +.65
[10:57] {ese} look at the price now almost .40
[10:58] {RonS} wtg
[10:58] {ese} nice one
[10:58] {dino} always limit ese, otherwise you are filling way out there
[10:58] {cipher} out SDS .54 +.04
[10:59] {dino} read that wrong, thought mkt was dropping
[10:59] {ese} Ron....ya missed tibx entry at .25 2500shs up .12 now
[11:02] {ese} have you ever done a mrkt order with a thinly traded one dino
[11:04] {ese} sacre blu.......the only problem with tibx is that i'm gonna have to wait a few more days for some profit......this is not good
[11:04] {dino} no, you will get filled too far away from limit
[11:08] {+cc_9} GMCR @ session highs
[11:11] {cipher} REGN s.318.52
[11:15] {cipher} cov 316.06 +2.46
[11:15] {dino} gj
[11:15] {cipher} can I have ny SDS back pls?
[11:15] {nemo} wow, facebook is actually pulling in
[11:16] {cipher} ok enuogh stress I'm out
[11:16] {cipher} cya tomorrow
01[11:16] {&Threei}  take care cipher
[11:18] {RonS} cipher needs name change...pese?
[11:18] {fish_49} have a great day Cipher
[11:18] {RonS} pre-ese...
[11:18] {nemo} whatsa' matter with cipher?
01[11:18] {&Threei}  our yesterday's wind strom, look at about 22 seconds mark: https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=VheTggEGgR4
01[11:18] {&Threei}  and 40
[11:18] {dino} gj cipher
[11:18] {RonS} nemo, couldn't stomach maiking a bunch of money...
[11:18] {RonS} making
[11:18] {+cc_9} BAM look @ that ponzi line today
[11:19] {+cc_9} (BAM is actually the ticker)
[11:19] {fish_49} ouch
[11:20] {fish_49} that looks cold
[11:20] {RonS} nah...reaction like a soldier after a furiously defended assault...
[11:21] {RonS} guy lives through it them goes into shellshock realizing he could have been killed...
[11:22] {RonS} happens all th time...
[11:22] {RonS} why 3i emphasizes removing emotions...
01[11:22] {&Threei}  surgically
[11:23] {RonS} ese did that...
[11:24] {RonS} replaced balls with brass...
[11:24] {RonS} side benefit is he can use them as part of drum set...
[11:26] {RonS} have not learned how to access emoticons in mirc or would put up smiley face...
[11:26] {RonS} dino mnst...migt be bottom fish candidate...
[11:27] {RonS} might
01[11:27] {&Threei}  just hit colon and shift-0
[11:27] {nemo} I wish they had a middle finger emoticon
[11:27] {RonS} lol
01[11:28] {&Threei}  mindset of entitlement:
[11:28] {RonS} ;)...lol...well that was roket science...
01[11:28] {&Threei}  windstorm causes ferry cancellations,
01[11:28] {&Threei}  island is essentially cut of for the day,
01[11:28] {&Threei}  guy posts on FB:
[11:29] {RonS} ugh bofi
01[11:29] {&Threei}  Boooo! I need to be on the mainland this evening, what kind of whimps run those ferries? Someone must do something!
[11:30] {fish_49} how long is the swim?
01[11:30] {&Threei}  by ferry? or personally?
[11:30] {fish_49} he said he has to be back this eve...  Looks like he will be getting wet
01[11:30] {&Threei}  ferry, 1 h 35 m... personally, about 5 min, I don't expect anyone to live longer than than
[11:30] {RonS} who wants to be killer whale bait?
01[11:31] {&Threei}  wind reaches 70 mph on the shore, probably more in the open waters
01[11:31] {&Threei}  idiot moans about ferry cancellations
01[11:32] {&Threei}  - Political crisis in Washington, DC and in Italy are hammering global equity markets this morning. Equities are making up for steep pre-market
01[11:32] {&Threei}  - In Italy, ministers affiliated with Berlusconi's center-right party resigned from the ruling coalition after budget talks broke down on Friday
01[11:33] {&Threei}  - In the US, the Senate is scheduled to convene at 14:00ET and Majority Leader Reid is expected to move quickly to vote on House CR funding bill. A shutdown remains very possible depending on whether or not the House returns an alternative proposal, perhaps that only strips the medical device tax from Obamacare, for funding the government.
[11:34] {RonS} sheesh, what about the new tax on medical insurance...
[11:34] {fish_49} medical device tax needs to go..  they all agree but using it as a tool
[11:35] {RonS} layoffs have already happend...who cares but those in those districts...?
[11:36] {RonS} ayk...zmh
[11:36] {RonS} syk
[11:53] {+cc_9} FB IH&S if breaks 50.90
[11:57] {nemo} fb looks long right here
[11:58] {nemo} IWM closed the gap
01[11:58] {&Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .40 break
01[11:58] {&Threei}  If holds  .30
[11:59] {+cc_9} GMCR boom
[12:02] {ese} am outta see you tomorrow my tibx swing is doing fine
[12:04] {+cc_9} FB closing in on that IH&S
01[12:09] {&Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .25 break
01[12:09] {&Threei}  If holds  .20
[12:14] {drewj} vad...i keep having trouble placing orders.  It is saying that the route is disabled
01[12:14] {&Threei}  cc9 is the one to ask on this kind
[12:15] {drewj} do know cc?
01[12:16] {&Threei}  meh
[12:16] {jdetente} bah humbug
[12:18] {+cc_9} Drew, don't use BATS
[12:18] {+cc_9} use ARCA/POST for now
[12:19] {drewj} thanks...where do i make that change in nonko trader?
[12:20] {+cc_9} In the order entry on the montage
[12:21] {drewj} i've got 5 different options that are similar to your suggestion...
[12:22] {drewj} which arca do you suggest?
[12:25] {+cc_9} use ARCAL for limit (or LIMIT default will set you up automatically on ARCAL), POSTM for market orders.
[12:25] {+cc_9} what is your account ID Drew
[12:26] {drewj} NTRD441
[12:26] {+cc_9} Ok, are you able to see the other routes within the drop down ?
[12:27] {drewj} yes
[12:27] {+cc_9} Ok, send a test trade with ARCAL for a limit order and/or POSTM for a market order
[12:28] {+cc_9} you should get smooth fills. BATS for some reason is being lame today
[12:28] {drewj} maybe that's why.
[12:28] {drewj} how do i send a test order?
[12:28] {+cc_9} its a regular order, but use 100 shares on say BAC
[12:28] {drewj} oh
01[12:28] {&Threei}  just do it away from market
[12:29] {drewj} ok
01[12:29] {&Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .05 break
01[12:29] {&Threei}  If holds  .10
[12:30] {dino} icpt sm s .65
[12:30] {+cc_9} Drew, you used INET
[12:31] {+cc_9} which is also fine...
[12:31] {drewj} cc9 it was just bats...it seems to be rejecting all my orders
[12:31] {+cc_9} yes, its BATS, rest are fine.
[12:31] {+cc_9} INET/POST/ARCA/EDGX all are good.
[12:31] {drewj} ok...thanks
[12:31] {+cc_9} you can even go all out pirate mode and use NQBX, but dont need to.
[12:32] {dino} cov .20, -.50 wtf
[12:32] {drewj} why a pirate cc?
[12:32] {RonS} edgx sucks imo...fidelity orders default to that...seen many instances of other exchange fills before edgx
[12:34] {+cc_9} Ron, there is also EDGA, if X is no good
[12:34] {drewj} cc do you work at nonko?
[12:34] {+cc_9} Drew, NQBX is considered an "exotic" route
[12:35] {+cc_9} Drew yes
[12:35] {drewj} who else works at nonko?
[12:35] {+cc_9} cc_1, cc_2, cc_3 all the way to cc_10
[12:36] {+cc_9} (this is a joke)
[12:36] {drewj} good
[12:36] {nemo} not really, they're actually Borg
[12:36] {+cc_9} We have guys who do the back-office, trader support, reporting, b/d and clear etc...
[12:36] {+cc_9} I just do the bad jokes in Vad's room
[12:36] {RonS} cc_rider?
[12:36] {drewj} nice
[12:37] {nemo} Ron, having flashbacks?
[12:37] {+cc_9} And i throw bones like GMCR ;)
[12:37] {drewj} seems to work well for you
[12:37] {+cc_9} and you if you catch them :)
[12:38] {drewj} first i will catch vads...later others
[12:39] {+cc_9} that's the spirit.
[12:42] {+cc_9} GMCR @ Friday's closing price.
[12:44] {+cc_9} Looks good for a swing even, i think this is interim bottom on 60min
[12:56] {+cc_9} GMCR $3.50 from initial call this AM. brb, going to cry
[12:57] {RonS} take clean handkerchef...
[12:57] {jdetente} where was your last exit GMCR?
01[12:58] {&Threei}  I disagree... that would make it dirty. Take the one that is dirty already and cry in it
[12:58] {+cc_9} My first GMCR trade tgt was 72.50
[12:59] {+cc_9} second trade went back in on the slowdown at 10:30AM for about 72.70 and got out 73.25
[12:59] {+cc_9} should have gotten back on the 11:15 dip area, but said the hell with it
[12:59] {+cc_9} GMCR is extremely oversold on 60min, this is why I kept trading it each day for the past week
[13:13] {nemo} Guess his ferry duties are over for the morning
[13:18] {jdetente} any news on this move?
[13:18] {jdetente} or just same ol same ol
[13:19] {+cc_9} Breaking News : BTFD
[13:19] {jdetente} of course
01[13:20] {&Threei}  (US) Senate Republicans are now said to be discussing a one-week spending extension
[13:20] {jdetente} spending spree??
[13:20] {jdetente} hehe
[13:21] {fish_49} kick the can into next week so we can do this again
01[13:21] {&Threei}  (US) President Obama: Have not resigned to a a Govt shutdown happening as the Senate will allow further negotiations on a long term budget ageement that would not shut the Govt down- Everyone in the US Govt must sit down in good faith and not under the threat of US debt default - Ton continue discussions with Congressional leaders through Wednesday.
01[13:22] {&Threei}  (US) Labor Dept: We will not release NFP jobs report on Friday, Oct 4th in the event of a government shutdown**REMINDER: On Friday other agencies noted the impact of a potential shutdown: Commerce Dept confirms that no economic data will be released in the event of a govt shutdown; Labor Dept will continue to issue jobless data if the govt shuts down. US Treasury issues its contingency plans in the event of a Govt shutdown: US mint to operate normally in the event of a govt shutdown; Treasury would stop tax processing activities; Treasury borrowing and debt programs will continue normally.
01[13:23] {&Threei}  I don't know about shutdown but I start really wishing for them to shut up
[13:23] {fish_49} lol
[13:27] {+cc_9} GMCR nonstop, regardless of market direction
[13:28] {drewj} is this a good day to take off early?
[13:28] {RonS} might be every day?
[13:28] {drewj} true
[13:29] {jdetente} let nemo take a few more shots at your first
[13:29] {dino} afternoons have been slow
[13:29] {jdetente} I'm bored...
[13:29] {dino} same here jd
[13:29] {drewj} he can take a few at you too then...
[13:30] {jdetente} of course that goes with the territory
[13:30] {+cc_9} GMCR } $76
01[13:31] {&Threei}  - Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and the Senate Republican Conference are gauging whether there is enough support to pass a one-week stop-gap measure
[13:31] {jdetente} should've picked up some shares earlier...jeez
01[13:32] {&Threei}  they are like that dog owner who loved his dog very much, so he cut his tail in portions, not to traumatize the animal by one time large cut
[13:32] {jdetente} now they're going to regrow new tail
[13:32] {jdetente} so they can do it again next year
[13:32] {fish_49} next meeting at 2 pm
[13:33] {+cc_9} GMCR short covering here, volume pretty high vs Thursday/Friday
[13:38] {+cc_9} GMCR volume increasing on 15min :)
[13:42] {+cc_9} GMCR crushing anyone short this AM
01[13:43] {&Threei} Long Setup:  MET  .10 break
01[13:43] {&Threei}  If holds  47
[13:54] {jdetente} jiminy cricket
[13:58] {RonS} pinnochio
[13:59] {jdetente} gepetto
[14:02] {+cc_9} ok so we shut down tonight, nice.
[14:02] {+cc_9} I wonder why this is news
01[14:03] {&Threei}  (US) Senate Majority Leader Reid (D-NV): Would not support a 1 week continuning resolution (CR)
[14:05] {fish_49} voting now right?
01[14:06] {&Threei}  I think so
[14:06] {+cc_9} Yes, http://www.bloomberg.com/tv/
[14:06] {+cc_9} Going back long light GMCR 74.85
[14:06] {fish_49} cc do you watch that online?
[14:06] {+cc_9} will try to sell 75.50 if market does not all out crash
[14:06] {+cc_9} You can watch it online yes
[14:06] {fish_49} I watch it on a different pc
[14:07] {fish_49} it caused problems on my trading pc
[14:07] {fish_49} but my question is ...  what is the commercial all about?
[14:07] {+cc_9} once commercial over, you watch bloomberg TV
[14:07] {+cc_9} nothing is free in this world
[14:08] {fish_49} same advertisement all day  over and over but not sure what it's about
[14:08] {fish_49} I will ping you
[14:08] {fish_49} no need you pinged me already
[14:08] {fish_49} I will follow up with an email
[14:08] {fish_49} no need  etc...
[14:08] {+cc_9} ...huh ?
[14:09] {fish_49} perhaps I get a different advertisement
[14:09] {+cc_9} lol who cares about the adv...
[14:09] {fish_49} just asking
01[14:09] {&Threei}  (US) S&P comments on US sovereign rating; debate on debt ceiling unlikely to change the AA+ rating- Notes no adjustment will be made as long as the disagreement is only in the short term - Reiterates that the original 2011 downgrade was a result of political brinksmanship - Failure to raise the debt ceiling is not our base case assumption
[14:10] {fish_49} the market rallied after the downgrade didn't it?
[14:10] {+cc_9} are you getting the "lucky strike with the help of GE" commercial Fish ?
[14:11] {+cc_9} bad news = good news = just keep buying, dont ask questions lol
[14:11] {+cc_9} if you ask questions about such things as "why is the market going up", you might be labeled a terrorist
01[14:15] {&Threei}  oh, that's why I always dismiss this kind of questions
[14:18] {+cc_9} GMCR needs to break that 75.20 wall
[14:19] {+cc_9} tight range here
[14:21] {fish_49} Bill back to house  Senate rejected it
01[14:21] {&Threei}  (US) Senate votes to reject the House spending plan; as expected- Bill heads back to the House to vote on whether to keep the Govt open
[14:22] {jdetente} no surprises
01[14:22] {&Threei}  game of high bet poker continues
[14:22] {jdetente} best game of chicken eve
[14:22] {jdetente} ever
[14:22] {fish_49} Dems have nothing to lose
[14:22] {fish_49} they hold the better hand
[14:23] {fish_49} they have their stop at break even
[14:23] {jdetente} they always win these kinds of fights...even if they lose
[14:25] {dino} liberal media backs them no matter what
[14:26] {fish_49} tvery true Dino
[14:26] {fish_49} now the house is thinking  Hmmm do we want to work late tonight? lets just give in  lol
01[14:34] {&Threei}  it's kind of expected but still, don't you find it sad state of affairs when the only consideration in everyone's head is, how will it play out for the 2014 election, and not how it qwill play out for the country?
[14:35] {fish_49} your right Vad
[14:35] {fish_49} but the reason why nobody is asking that question is because it has become business as usual for our government
[14:35] {+cc_9} out GMCR 75.25 +$0.40
[14:36] {+cc_9} lovely!!!!!!!!
01[14:36] {&Threei}  I know... it's just...
[14:36] {fish_49} and as for the 2014 vote?  people forget real fast as long as economy is doing well during election time
[14:37] {fish_49} Reid now saying  hahaha  Republicans  try again  and if we shut down remember it's the republicans fault
[14:37] {fish_49} lol
01[14:38] {&Threei}  whole thing turned into the game of who will be able to pass the plame on other side more effectively
[14:38] {fish_49} yep
01[14:39] {&Threei}  reminds me a conversation with a high level appartchik in the late 80s or beginning of 90s...
[14:39] {jdetente} plame for all of them if you ask me
[14:40] {fish_49} But what Reid says is a bomb when he says  you want us to fund the government for a week?
01[14:40] {&Threei}  he was muzing about all the possible options of transition to business, via KGB line or Comsomol line, or sport orgazation... and talking about a,ll the implications of the wrong choice,
[14:40] {fish_49} they will make that their propaganda
01[14:41] {&Threei}  at some point when conversation revolved for the third time around what layer of society will get what etc,
01[14:42] {&Threei}  I asked "Listem... everyone in your cicrles thinks abput these things, discusses them?"
01[14:42] {&Threei}  he said yeah, pretty much, everyone with head on the shoulders
01[14:42] {&Threei}  I asked "what about the country?'
01[14:43] {&Threei}  He looked at me with this sudden shocked expression, then said: Country? Oh, country is f)(&ed
01[14:44] {&Threei}  that was pretty much a given for them, no one even thought about it
01[14:47] {&Threei}  @TheTweetOfGod
01[14:47] {&Threei}  American government is of the people, by the people and for the people. Which begs the question: what is wrong with you people?
[14:48] {fish_49} used to be for the people
[14:49] {nemo} spy iwm and finnies walking a nice channel
[14:50] {+cc_9} GMCr nice come back from sub $75.00 pickup
[14:51] {+cc_9} cracking .20 wall
[14:52] {+cc_9} P&L today on all tickers discussed }}} http://img31.imageshack.us/img31/6093/4jpx.JPG
[14:52] {+cc_9} $60 shy from goal, but its Monday.
[14:53] {fish_49} CC thanks for sharing that
[14:54] {+cc_9} np
[14:54] {fish_49} It answers a question I have had for awhile.
01[14:54] {&Threei}  stop with excuses, will ya
[14:54] {+cc_9} sorry vad :(
01[14:54] {&Threei}  Monday or no Monday, short of goal is short of goal
[14:54] {+cc_9} what was the Q fish
[14:54] {+cc_9} ok, let me get that $60 on this SSO drop ;)
01[14:54] {&Threei}  and those $60 is unforgivable
[14:54] {+cc_9} ugh
[14:55] {fish_49} What is appropriate for share count on most trades
01[14:55] {&Threei}  wither get them or don't even think of showing us those shameful screenshots
01[14:56] {&Threei}  but I'll be fair and admit that it's $57.15 that you have to get
01[14:56] {&Threei}  which is still inexcusable
[14:56] {+cc_9} fish, it depends, SSO is a slow mover, so can feel comfortable starting with 500/1000
[14:56] {+cc_9} GMCR for example kinda wacky, start with 300 is good.
[14:56] {+cc_9} UVXY same, 300 starter bc fast mover
[14:57] {+cc_9} TNA 300-500 is ok to start with
01[14:57] {&Threei}  but $2.85 less inexcusable than $60
[14:58] {+cc_9} lol.
[14:59] {Alexs} GLD short .30?
01[15:00] {&Threei}  I think so
01[15:00] {&Threei}  certainly worth a try
01[15:00] {&Threei}  stop for now is above .40 but can be trailed faster than 1:1
[15:00] {Alexs} k
[15:02] {nemo} well, gotta' leave early...gonna' go poison some minds
[15:03] {Alexs} trail to .38?
[15:03] {+cc_9} Lets call them now
[15:03] {+cc_9} EOD :
[15:03] {+cc_9} 1) sell off
[15:03] {+cc_9} 2) sideways
[15:03] {+cc_9} 3) rally
[15:03] {+cc_9} call em !
01[15:03] {&Threei}  I'd prefer it tolose .25 before trailing
[15:04] {Alexs} k
01[15:04] {&Threei}  my choice is selloff
[15:04] {fish_49} I say sell off but not breaking the LOD
01[15:05] {&Threei}  (US) House Republicans planning to put forth spending legislation to delay the individual mandate by 1 year (i.e. seeking to delay one aspect of Obamacare)- House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Chairman Rep Issa (D-CA): New house bill will require President Obama and other Administration officials to sign up for Obamacare coverage, and cancel subsidies for Congressional members health plans. - Follow up 14:49ET: Senate Majority Leader Reid: will reject the latest House stopgap spending proposal. "Our negotiation is over," the House must pass the clean spending bill.
[15:05] {+cc_9} I grabbed some SSO on this drop so I can get my damn $60 already
[15:06] {+cc_9} (Vad pressured me into making this trade, if it does not work, u know who to blame)
01[15:06] {&Threei}  well, you are still 58.14 short
01[15:06] {&Threei}  15
01[15:07] {&Threei}  and if you are allowed to remain short today, tomorrow everyone is short
01[15:07] {&Threei}  and Yuri The KneeCupShooter will have to work overtume
01[15:08] {&Threei}  and to pay for his overtime, Ivan the Enforcer will have to be summoned
[15:09] {+cc_9} SPY @ bottom of intraday range
[15:11] {+cc_9} Jesus christ CNN with the dramatic images : http://www.cnn.com/
[15:11] {+cc_9} First it was picture of Capitol Hill with dark clouds above it
[15:11] {+cc_9} then it was the Statue of Liberty in nightime
[15:11] {+cc_9} now its a pair of shoes over a cliff
[15:11] {+cc_9} next probably pic of someone hanging
01[15:12] {&Threei}  lol
[15:13] {+cc_9} Bloomberg "Wall St. banks are set to meet with President Obama on Wednesday"
01[15:13] {&Threei}  any brown envelopes involved?
[15:14] {+cc_9} no, just ice tea and skittles
[15:15] {jdetente} the 24 hour news cycle just loves this drama
01[15:15] {&Threei}  that's kind of weird for the folks who consider lobster a cold cuts for the sandwich
01[15:18] {&Threei}  countdown clock on the TV screen
01[15:18] {&Threei}  evertyhing is ruined
01[15:18] {&Threei}  8:40 min left
01[15:19] {&Threei}  throw women and children overboard
[15:19] {jdetente} I say they push the DOW below 15k before EOD
[15:21] {+cc_9} i think we see a lil pop to 168 first
[15:22] {fish_49} 167.94 CC
[15:22] {fish_49} lol
[15:23] {+cc_9} Ok Vad/Fish, I dedicate this one to you
[15:23] {+cc_9} Goal reached (SSO trade) }}} http://img94.imageshack.us/img94/6901/pm3l.jpg
[15:23] {+cc_9} :D
01[15:24] {&Threei}  OK
01[15:24] {&Threei}  now you are in the clear
[15:24] {+cc_9} phew
[15:24] {jdetente} go have your milk and cookies
06[15:24] * &Threei holsters the weapon
[15:24] {fish_49} you exceeded.  Can Alex and I share the excess?
06[15:24] * &Threei signals Youri to stand down
[15:25] {+cc_9} let me see where im @ after commission
[15:25] {+cc_9} I give myself the same commission as everyone else so its fair
[15:25] {+cc_9} no house advantage.
01[15:25] {&Threei}  what kind of house is that
[15:26] {fish_49} lets go to Vegas with those house rules
[15:26] {+cc_9} 16,200 shares, $0.005 rate = $81 in commission
[15:26] {+cc_9} Gross is $1,085
[15:26] {+cc_9} Ending the day with $1,004 lol
01[15:26] {&Threei}  even house of representatives gives itself an advantage
[15:26] {+cc_9} 4 bucks shy from being called names
01[15:26] {&Threei}  lol
[15:26] {fish_49} spy turned away at .95  I was a penny off
[15:31] {+cc_9} Nice trading here guys, see you all tomorrow.
[15:31] {fish_49} take care CC good job
[15:31] {fish_49} c you have pm
01[15:31] {&Threei}  take care cc9
[15:31] {fish_49} cc u have pm
[15:32] {fish_49} gone
[15:32] {fish_49} lol
01[15:32] {&Threei}  ok GLD, die
[15:32] {Alexs} got stopped
[15:33] {RonS} thanks for sharing...
01[15:36] {&Threei}  1:1
01[15:37] {&Threei}  I didn't see Level 2 going over .40
[15:37] {Alexs} 15:29
01[15:37] {&Threei}  did I sleep through it or was it out of bounds print?
01[15:37] {&Threei}  I see it on the chart, didn't see offer going there on Level 2
01[15:39] {&Threei}  have you been watching it Alex, or set automated stop?
[15:40] {Alexs} yes, I've seen it got ot at.40
[15:40] {Alexs} out
01[15:41] {&Threei}  I slept through it then
[15:42] {Alexs} good for you )
01[15:42] {&Threei}  well, not really
[15:43] {Alexs} lol
01[15:43] {&Threei}  what if proceeded higher :)
[15:43] {fish_49} then you would be asking CC for a loan
01[15:43] {&Threei}  although it was probably a very brief sleep, lol
[15:45] {fish_49} shorts covering? why the big push up
[15:45] {fish_49} ?
01[15:47] {&Threei}  (US) House Speaker Boehner (R-OH): Clean spending bill will not happen; need to remove individual mandate in Obamacare as well as exemptions for members of Congress
01[15:48] {&Threei}  (US) House Rep King (R-NY): Republican party has been hijacked by Ted Cruz; will not support the Republican spending bill -
[15:48] {dino} mygn drop
[15:50] {dino} hl l .55
[15:53] {drewj} ok guys...have a good evening.
[15:53] {fish_49} take care all
01[15:54] {&Threei}  thank you all, have a great evening
01[15:54] {&Threei}  see you tomorrow, with or without the government
[15:59] {dino} out mygn flat, not enough time
[16:00] {dino} gn