Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Dec 12 2012


Nice day, especially for a FOMC day. Even got a nice Catch of the day (yes, short FB again)


Session Time: Wed Dec 12 00:00:00 2012
[08:57] >patel> Good Morning!!!
01[08:57] >Threei>  morning patel
[08:58] >cipher> gm
01[08:59] >Threei>  cipher :)
[09:00] >dino> gm
01[09:00] >Threei>  dino :)
[09:14] >Beau> good morning
01[09:14] >Threei>  beau :)
[09:15] >thomcbell> Vad did u catch that 34.92 long break in AIG near the close?
[09:15] >thomcbell> i knew i was going to miss a good setup that last 1/2 hr
[09:16] >scottie> good morning
01[09:17] >Threei>  tbell, scottie :)
01[09:17] >Threei>  no tbell
[09:18] >thomcbell> pivot so far away on AIG
[09:18] >thomcbell> not interested in buying here
01[09:18] >Threei>  FOMC day
01[09:18] >Threei>  things will be a bit different
[09:19] >thomcbell> FB - i will be watching for an opening range breakout
[09:20] >Will49> Good morning
[09:20] >thomcbell> set up in multiple time frames including a 3 weeks tight pattern in process on the weekly
01[09:21] >Threei>  will :)
[09:22] >ese> gm
01[09:22] >Threei>  ese :)
[09:22] >ese> morning
[09:22] >ese>  vad
[09:23] >ese> 7 shows so far this december of various kinds and i haven't seen you out at any of them vad.............hmmmmmmmm
01[09:24] >Threei>  sorry... with vacation coming, not much time on hand
[09:24] >ese> 2 this weekend........one next and i'm outta the woods..............i will have escaped another Christmas performance barage alive
[09:28] >ese> where you going on vacation.......
01[09:28] >Threei>  hawaii
[09:28] >ese> nice
01[09:29] >Threei>  that's what my camera said when I told it
[09:29] >ese> i hear all that nice weather is bad for you
[09:29] >ese> just a rumor of course
01[09:29] >Threei>  yes but I am willing to suffer
[09:30] >ese> someone has do it
01[09:32] >Threei> Long Setup:  AIG  .70 break
01[09:32] >Threei>  If holds  .60
[09:33] >patel> dang 2 quick...
01[09:33] >Threei>  1L1
[09:33] >Will49> missed
[09:33] >dino> incy hl l .50
01[09:33] >Threei>  don't buy pullback yet
01[09:34] >Threei> Long Setup:  FB  .05 break hl
01[09:34] >Threei>  If holds  .95
01[09:35] >Threei> Long Setup:  AIG  .55 break
01[09:35] >Threei>  If holds  .50
01[09:35] >Threei>  Invalidated
01[09:36] >Threei> Long Setup:  AIG  .50 break
01[09:36] >Threei>  If holds  .40
[09:36] >ese> L cie .60
[09:37] >ese> 1/2
[09:37] >dino> out incy .74, +.24
01[09:37] >Threei>  no go AIG
[09:38] >thomcbell> lvs long setup 45.07 break oif holding 45
01[09:38] >Threei>  SPY breaks down
[09:38] >ese> out cie.98 +.38
[09:40] >cipher> cost l .64
[09:40] >cipher> ulta l .70
01[09:41] >Threei> Long Setup:  X  .55 break
01[09:41] >Threei>  If holds  .45
[09:41] >dino> cost hl l .73
01[09:41] >Threei>  1:1 in a hurry
[09:41] >cipher> out cost .97+.33
[09:44] >cipher> cost l. 55
01[09:44] >Threei> Long Setup:  RHT  .10 break
01[09:44] >Threei>  If holds  51
01[09:45] >Threei>  hl
[09:45] >cipher> out cost -.16
01[09:46] >Threei>  change to .05 break
01[09:46] >Threei>  If holds  .95
01[09:48] >Threei>  Invalidated
[09:49] >ese> L cie .94
[09:49] >ese> sorry late call moving to fast
[09:49] >nemo> fcx
[09:49] >thomcbell> i took the trade lvs
[09:49] >patel> nice call on LVS tbell
[09:49] >thomcbell> 45.27
01[09:50] >Threei> Short Setup: FB  .85 break
01[09:52] >Threei>  ha;f out
[09:53] >ese> out cie .17 +.23
01[09:56] >Threei> Short Setup: WMT  .20 break hl
[09:57] >dino> gj
[09:57] >dino> cost=pulp
01[09:57] >Threei>  If holds  .30
01[09:58] >Threei>  FB target 1:3
01[09:58] >Threei>  Invalidated  WMT
01[10:00] >Threei>  Boehner on TV soon
01[10:00] >Threei>  after "closed door meeting"
01[10:01] >Threei>  is there any other kind?
[10:01] >patel> BBY 12.14/12.04 thoughts
01[10:02] >Threei>  no read
[10:02] >patel> okay
[10:02] >dino> 07 red
[10:03] >patel> market doesnt like boehner
01[10:03] >Threei>  (US) US House said to be considering a vote on fiscal cliff after Christmas - Politico- Majority Leader Cantor (R-VA) is telling House GOP members to expect to be in town and in session on Christmas Eve.
[10:03] >dptl> good morning
01[10:03] >Threei>  (US) Senate Majority Leader Reid (D-NV): Very little progress has been made in fiscal cliff talks
01[10:03] >Threei>  dp :)
01[10:04] >Threei>  (US) US House Speaker Boehner reiterates President Obama has not brought a balanced approach
01[10:05] >Threei>  - Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA): Discussion from Democrats has only been on one side of the ledger, regarding taxes
[10:05] >dino> out cost .23, +.50 toughie
01[10:07] >Threei>  stop to .81
01[10:11] >Threei>  to .76
[10:12] >dptl> cog .40 long ?
01[10:12] >Threei>  1:2
[10:12] >thomcbell> long setup aig 35.20 break if holding 35.10
01[10:12] >Threei>  COG, yeah
[10:14] >dptl> in .41
[10:14] >thomcbell> AIG has yet to trigger - like it more now if it does now
[10:14] >thomcbell> the market very wishy washy though
[10:15] >thomcbell> target is 1:2 on AIG
01[10:16] >Threei>  1:3, out
01[10:16] >Threei>  whew
[10:16] >patel> nice trade
[10:16] >Will49> tks Vad
[10:17] >patel> I left FB alone this time and it worked.
[10:21] >thomcbell> FB - sometimes a failed long setup is the best time to short
[10:21] >patel> I agree tbell
01[10:21] >Threei>  plus yesterday's history of rug pulls
[10:21] >patel> yesterday after a failed long
[10:21] >patel> it worked great
[10:22] >patel> and did today as well
01[10:22] >Threei>  rewmember my musings yesterday about the way FB started trading, as a template for future trades?
01[10:23] >Threei>  12:35] >Threei> thisd is third rug pull today on FB
01[10:23] >Threei>  [12:38] >dino> just walk away
01[10:23] >Threei>  [12:38] >dino> "better worlds than this"
01[10:23] >Threei>  [12:38] >Threei> no, not interested in it for today
01[10:23] >Threei>  [12:38] >Threei> just making an observation to get an idea how to play it from now on
[10:24] >thomcbell> short setup slw 37.35 break if holding 37.43
[10:24] >dino> aap spike
[10:24] >thomcbell> target is 1:2
01[10:25] >Threei>  visual
01[10:25] >Threei>  http://goo.gl/1lpFw
[10:26] >nemo> look at cie
[10:27] >thomcbell> slw invalidated
01[10:28] >Threei>  COG slowly working
[10:29] >dino> avd sm l .71 gappy trader
[10:29] >dptl> half out cog
[10:30] >dptl> out rest
[10:33] >thomcbell> stopped aig -.11
[10:34] >dptl> met .65 short?
01[10:35] >Threei>  can't tell
[10:35] >dptl> k
[10:38] >nemo> cie broke range
[10:39] >patel> CIE nice wedge off of the 5 minute chart
[10:40] >nemo> had that dead period, quick flush down to vwap then the break in the other direction
[10:46] >thomcbell> aig 35.15 break if holding 35.05
[10:49] >dino> asps pulp
01[10:49] >Threei>  lol:
01[10:49] >Threei>  George Takei
01[10:49] >Threei>  If we all carved 12/21/3012 onto walls and caves today, think how many people we'd freak out in 1000 years.
[10:56] >thomcbell> aig stopped again -.05 - not my day
[10:57] >nemo> turning into a fed range day
[10:57] >thomcbell> it sure is
[10:57] >dino> volume dropping, scanners slow
[10:57] >dptl> what time?
[10:57] >dino> 12:15
[10:57] >nemo> so, at best, buy support, sell resistance, breakout plays will be low probability
01[10:57] >Threei>  right
01[10:57] >Threei>  breakdowns, maybe
01[10:58] >Threei>  like AIG is trying to form now
[10:59] >nemo> finnies flatline, spy scraping lows with daily pivot below.  iwm hanging near Weekly R2
[10:59] >nemo> and bonds moving higher
01[11:03] >Threei> Long Setup:  WMT  .30 break hl
01[11:03] >Threei>  If holds  .20
[11:03] >dino> esio hl l .89
[11:06] >dino> joy drop
01[11:07] >Threei>  Invalidated
[11:15] >dptl> anf .70 short if stays under .80 ?
[11:15] >dino> retailers not doing much last few days, jwn, pir, kss
01[11:20] >Threei>  market starts reversing to the upside
01[11:21] >Threei>  not ready to jump into longs, but short plays are on hold
01[11:24] >Threei> Long Setup:  GLD  .80 break hl
01[11:24] >Threei>  If holds  .70
01[11:27] >Threei>  Equity markets in Asia and Europe tested YTD highs ahead of the FOMC meeting this afternoon. US markets have been much less frothy as Democrats and Republicans signal another deadlock in the fiscal cliff negotiations
01[11:27] >Threei>  - The FOMC decision is a three-act drama today: the policy statement drops around 12:30ET, economic forecasts come at 14:00ET and Chairman Bernanke's press conference is at 14:15ET. Analysts expect Operation Twist to be replaced with unsterilized Treasury purchases of roughly the same size. The Fed has signaled that it would like to supplement or replace its calendar-based guidance at some point, but that change is not expected today. Markets are also waiting for a definition of what constitutes a "substantial" improvement in labor market conditions to warrant phasing out the Fed's net asset purchases.
[11:32] >nemo> http://www.emotionreply.com/g/20/19.gif
[11:33] >dptl> lol
[11:33] >Will49> good one
[11:33] >scottie> lol
[11:33] >dptl> feels like i just looked in the mirror
01[11:33] >Threei>  lol
01[11:36] >Threei>  let's trail GLD to .74
[11:41] >dptl> whats up with jcp?
01[11:41] >Threei>  Deutche ban upgrade
01[11:41] >Threei>  bank
[11:42] >dptl> i see ty
[11:42] >patel> Threei: I am in DG long
[11:42] >patel> from 43.28 with a 43.16 stop
01[11:43] >Threei>  wow
01[11:43] >Threei>  what kind of entry is this
01[11:43] >Threei>  43 break was a valid setup,
01[11:43] >Threei>  43.15, so so but still OK
01[11:44] >Threei>  but .28 is entry into spike with no consolidation
01[11:44] >Threei>  not my kind at all
[11:44] >patel> I wanted the HOD of the to break before going in.
01[11:44] >Threei>  not sure I understand
[11:46] >dptl> met .70 long?
01[11:47] >Threei>  yeah
[11:48] >dptl> in .60 stop
01[11:48] >Threei>  patel... it works but don't let it fool you
01[11:49] >Threei>  this kind of entries will hurt much more often than not
[11:49] >dino> avd to .12
01[11:49] >Threei>  buy breakouts of consolidation range, not spikes
[11:50] >patel> okay
[11:50] >dino> to .19
[11:50] >dino> out avd .20, +.49
[11:51] >Will49> sweet
[11:51] >dino> ty, took awhile
[11:51] >robbers> wtg dino
01[11:51] >Threei>  nice one
[11:51] >dino> ty
01[11:56] >Threei>  1:1 GLD
[11:57] >Will49> tks Vad
01[11:58] >Threei>  1:2m out
01[11:58] >Threei>  yw
01[11:59] >Threei>  no news
01[11:59] >Threei>  who knows why it sat on its butt for half an hourm then spiked to 1:2 in one minute
01[11:59] >Threei>  but I'll take it
[12:00] >robbers> Nice call, Vad, regardless of the time it took.
[12:01] >Will49> yeah, I can sit on MY but for trades like that
[12:01] >Will49> butt
01[12:05] >Threei>  MET will make dp blue in face, like in that nemo's gif, lol
[12:06] >dptl> lol yea
[12:13] >thomcbell> FB remains vulberable
01[12:13] >Threei>  vulberable = vulnerable + unbearable?
[12:13] >dptl> look at .75 offer met :)
[12:14] >dptl> it's not me lol
01[12:14] >Threei>  good
01[12:14] >Threei>  it'll act a a magnet, and when it slices through that offer, stock will spike up hard
01[12:16] >Threei>  sheesh GLD
[12:16] >dptl> i think that dude just canceld it
01[12:17] >Threei>  some of it got taken, and he ran away not to be steamrolled
[12:17] >thomcbell> aig at the pivot here 34.88
01[12:17] >Threei>  not much difference, it acts almost the same on the stock
01[12:18] >Threei>  lifting such offer signifies strength and conviction, offer ruinning away signifies lack of confidence by sellers... either is b'ullish
[12:18] >dptl> i took half out here
01[12:19] >Threei>  yup
[12:20] >dptl> stop to b/e
01[12:20] >Threei>  who put gold against the wall and called for firing squad?
[12:21] >nemo> finnies been strong all day, market will like the news
[12:25] >thomcbell> long setup FB 27.48 break if holding 27.38 target 27.68
[12:25] >dptl> lets take  hod met
01[12:26] >Threei>  >MET> yes sir
[12:26] >dptl> :)
[12:27] >thomcbell> aig making an attempt to hold the pivot here
[12:28] >thomcbell> could be noise due to Bernanke
[12:28] >nemo> guys you might want to get flat NOW!
[12:29] >nemo> you could get caught in some messy algo arbitrage
[12:30] >nemo> bonds are strong along with finnies weird
01[12:30] >Threei>  *FOMC HOLDS FED FUNDS RATE TARGET AT 0.25% (AS EXPECTED):DROPS 2015 FROM STATEMENT- Vote 11-1 (Jeffrey M. Lacker again dissents; opposing additional asset purchases)
[12:31] >dptl> cheezzz    out some more
01[12:31] >Threei>  gold ate firing squad
01[12:31] >Threei>  and spat out bones
01[12:31] >Threei>  I'd be out in full dp
[12:31] >thomcbell> FB 1:1 for an 1/8 of a second
[12:31] >nemo> bonds collapsing
01[12:32] >Threei>  - Adopts monetary policy thresholds; employment rate at 6.5%, inflation at no more than 2.5%
[12:32] >dptl> just 100 sh left
[12:32] >dptl> ok out
01[12:33] >Threei>  this kind of move is great if you positioned right before, which you were,
01[12:33] >Threei>  but don't stick around for too long,
[12:33] >nemo> first they squeeze the shorts, now they squeeze the longs, 3rd move is likely direction
01[12:33] >Threei>  it usually whipsaws
01[12:33] >Threei>  see?
[12:34] >dptl> ye...crazy
[12:34] >nemo> they're going to buy 45B a month in mortgage bonds too
[12:34] >nemo> nasty shit
[12:34] >nemo> oh, sorry...fecal matter
[12:34] >dptl> lol
[12:35] >nemo> http://www.businessinsider.com/fed-announces-evans-rule-2012-12
[12:38] >thomcbell> stop to break even on FB
[12:39] >nemo> being in a trade before the announcement...must have a horseshoe up ur ass
[12:40] >thomcbell> slw and gdx strong
[12:43] >thomcbell> stop to 27.55 on FB
[12:45] >dptl> jcp .45 long?
[12:45] >dptl> ah...run away
[12:46] >thomcbell> very nice boring play on met
[12:46] >thomcbell> perfect
[12:47] >thomcbell> FB stop to 27.58
[12:47] >dptl> :)
[12:50] >thomcbell> gdx looks like it has room
[12:50] >thomcbell> higher
[12:52] >thomcbell> FB close enuf out 27.67 mear 1:2
[12:52] >dptl> ye gold run up like 10 bucks in half an hour
[13:02] >thomcbell> slw 38 break if holding 38.08
[13:03] >thomcbell> cacncel slw
01[13:05] >Threei> Short Setup: RIMM  .20 break
01[13:05] >Threei>  If holds  .25
[13:05] >scottie> not in short list
[13:05] >_syncc> Hey guys, got distracted this morning, but now im here. I missed a good morning
01[13:05] >Threei>  you did
[13:05] >_syncc> speaking of rimm, whoa.
[13:07] >scottie> dri s .10 if holds .20 ?
[13:07] >_syncc> Hey Vad, you are Ukranian right?
01[13:07] >Threei>  by country of exodus
[13:08] >_syncc> http://www.youtube.com/watch?gl=CA&v=fzLtF_PxbYw
01[13:08] >Threei>  can't tell scottie
[13:08] >_syncc> saw this last night :)
01[13:08] >Threei>  50/50
[13:08] >scottie> tks
01[13:08] >Threei>  lol
[13:09] >thomcbell> wowwy gdx and slw
[13:10] >_syncc> wowwy abx :)
[13:11] >nemo> careful, everybody thought they would extend purchases this is whacky
[13:11] >dino> esio stop .86, -.03
[13:11] >_syncc> when you say -.03, this is negative three cents right? not a percentage?
01[13:12] >Threei>  yes
[13:12] >_syncc> ty
[13:12] >dino> yes
01[13:13] >Threei>  RIMM half out
[13:18] >dptl> got to go...see ya tomorrow all
[13:18] >Will49> be good dp
[13:19] >scottie> dp
01[13:19] >Threei>  take care dp
[13:20] >dptl> :) i'll try Will...just think of me when you look at that gif file Nemo posted...lol
[13:21] >dptl> i am gonna make it wallpaper on my comp :)
[13:22] >_syncc> Vad, you out of rimm yet, or still half?
[13:22] >Will49> lol
01[13:23] >Threei>  second half is being stopped if stock moves beyond breakeven
01[13:23] >Threei>  .21 in this case
01[13:24] >Threei>  remember instructions how partial/trail routine works?
[13:25] >_syncc> "Scalpers take full exit at this level; day traders take first partial and trail their stop under the breakeven point"
[13:25] >_syncc> but it says under the BE point???
01[13:25] >Threei>  under for long
01[13:25] >Threei>  above for short
[13:25] >_syncc> ohh, got it
01[13:25] >Threei>  :)
[13:25] >_syncc> but then wouldnt you lose money is under for long and above for short
[13:26] >_syncc> if under**
01[13:29] >Threei>  1 cent under?
01[13:29] >Threei>  shrug
[13:29] >_syncc> lol
01[13:29] >Threei>  your actions are determined by market action
01[13:29] >Threei>  market action says:
01[13:30] >Threei>  here is former resistance which served as your trigger if broken,
01[13:30] >Threei>  now it's a support,
01[13:30] >Threei>  if pullback goes under it, support is no longer holding thus your long is no longer valid. Close your position.
01[13:31] >Threei>  That's why you trail your long stop under support, which is b.e point
01[13:31] >Threei>  see the logic?
[13:31] >_syncc> and the stop is always a few pennies under the support?
[13:31] >_syncc> what about whipsaws though?
[13:32] >_syncc> (for long btw)
01[13:32] >Threei>  one penny
01[13:33] >Threei>  what about them?
01[13:33] >Threei>  they happen
01[13:33] >Threei>  market is not an environment where anything happens always, or never
01[13:33] >Threei>  you go with "most often"
[13:34] >dino> think probabilities
01[13:34] >Threei>  yup
[13:35] >_syncc> and most often is whipsaws do not occur, hene the one penny under the support?
[13:35] >_syncc> hence**
01[13:35] >Threei>  most often lost of support results in trade reversal
01[13:35] >Threei>  and sometimes they rinse
01[13:35] >Threei>  we hate rinses,
[13:35] >dino> emn spike
01[13:35] >Threei>  but if you try to avoid them, you will blow your stops
01[13:36] >Threei>  and those trades that are legit reversals will kill you
[13:36] >_syncc> so stick with the stops
01[13:36] >Threei>  this is called random reinforcement by the market, and is one of market's most dangerous "features"
01[13:37] >Threei>  let me throw one link your way
01[13:37] >Threei>  http://blog.realitytrader.com/2007/05/stops-why-dont-we-keep-them.html
[13:38] >scottie> aet l .40 if holds .30 ?
[13:38] >_syncc> just to clear things up: you said that once the trigger is broken, that level becomes the support, but on the instructions it says that the stop is placed under the "if hold" level. For example break 10 if hold 9.90, stop placed under 9.90?
01[13:39] >Threei>  I'd rather hunt for aggressive entry on it, scottie
01[13:39] >Threei>  right
01[13:39] >Threei>  when 1:1 is reached, this broken resistance becomes legitimate new support
01[13:40] >Threei>  not right away, otherwise you'll be a subjet of shakeout on market noise
[13:40] >_syncc> ohhhh
[13:40] >_syncc> awesome, got it now. Thanks man :)
01[13:40] >Threei>  np
01[13:41] >Threei>  go over educational blog
01[13:41] >Threei>  you will find a lot of things that will put the structure together for you
[13:41] >dino> emn hl s .75
01[13:45] >Threei>  you'll have whole next week to absorb it, while my wife decides whether she wants to throw me in the volcano - and more if she answers that positively
[13:46] >_syncc> Im going to have to go over the blog tonight, looks like great reading material.
[13:46] >_syncc> And marriage--not looking forward to it.
[13:46] >dino> when are you out vad/
01[13:46] >Threei>  Monday 17
[13:46] >dino> until?
01[13:46] >Threei>  back on 26
01[13:47] >Threei>  (unless wife... see above)
[13:47] >_syncc> volcano-- Hawaii perhaps?
01[13:47] >Threei>  yup
[13:47] >dino> sweet
01[13:47] >Threei>  that's what my camera said :)
[13:47] >_syncc> ever been to Switzerland
[13:48] >_syncc> your camera might break due to the beauty
01[13:48] >Threei>  imagine, last time I';/ve been to big island, I still shot film
[13:48] >scottie> AIG s .70 ?
[13:49] >dino> emn stop -.26
01[13:49] >Threei>  I think so
[13:49] >dino> dnb drop
[13:52] >_syncc> is there a potential for abx to break 36 by end of week?
01[13:53] >Threei>  yes... but how does it help you?
01[13:53] >Threei>  there is also potential for it to lose 35
01[13:53] >Threei>  and 34
01[13:53] >Threei>  forget this prediction crap
01[13:54] >Threei>  go with setups
01[13:54] >Threei>  tested, tried, proven
01[13:54] >Threei>  there is setup - there is a trade
[13:54] >_syncc> i was just looking at my TA, and it shows me resistance at 36....
01[13:54] >Threei>  no setup, no trade
[13:54] >thomcbell> i think aig is 2 sided 34.78 break up and 34.68 break down
[13:55] >dino> rsistance can last a long time
[13:56] >nemo> we're bernanke range bound
[14:07] >dino> what time bernie?
[14:08] >thomcbell> gdx and slw day highs
[14:08] >thomcbell> despite lagging gld
01[14:08] >Threei>  14:15
[14:09] >dino> ok
[14:09] >dino> taking a little break. in capits/euphoria mode until close
[14:13] >thomcbell> Vad i just got my copy of Master and Margarita from Amazon
[14:13] >nemo> which version though?
01[14:14] >Threei>  which translation?
[14:14] >nemo> original unedited, or soviet approved?
[14:14] >thomcbell> Michael Glenny
[14:15] >_syncc> isnt the original by bulgakov
[14:15] >_syncc> thats the copy I have
01[14:15] >Threei>  I don't know that translation, tbell
[14:15] >thomcbell> ok
01[14:16] >Threei>  one I found to be really good was by Pevear and Volokho
01[14:16] >Threei>  yes syncc, but original is written in Russian... :0
[14:17] >_syncc> oh michael glenny is the translator..
01[14:17] >Threei>  and you need a really good translation, this is not a manual where you look for accuracy
[14:17] >_syncc> thats mine
[14:17] >_syncc> http://www.amazon.com/Master-Margarita-Mikhail-Bulgakov/dp/0679760806
[14:19] >patel> DG geez
[14:25] >nemo> looking for spy to maybe test 144
[14:28] >dino> gdi
[14:29] >dino> p/e offers mid to high 70s
01[14:32] >Threei>  did you take AIG scottie?
[14:33] >scottie> dri s .60 ?
[14:33] >scottie> no
[14:33] >dino> talking to yourself?
[14:33] >scottie> lol
[14:33] >dino> :)
[14:34] >scottie> no was the answer to Vad's question :)
01[14:34] >Threei>  lol
01[14:34] >Threei>  too bad
[14:35] >scottie> question about dri still valid though
01[14:36] >Threei>  probably
01[14:37] >Threei>  chart is right, I am just not very confident that market has more downside
01[14:37] >Threei>  but DRI is weak
[14:37] >scottie> ok
[14:41] >scottie> in .59
[14:42] >_syncc> what is your stop?
[14:42] >nemo> yeah, they're not throwing any volume at the indexes
[14:42] >scottie> .71
[14:42] >nemo> spy is at vwap, finnies too
01[14:51] >Threei>  I'd trail to .66 at this point
01[14:51] >Threei>  to protect from double bottom
[14:56] >scottie> half out .51
[14:56] >scottie> stop .61
[14:56] >dino> gj
[14:57] >scottie> ty
[14:57] >thomcbell> short setup rimm 13.25 break if holding 13.34
01[15:00] >Threei>  syncc... see how wel structured setups work?
01[15:00] >Threei>  no thinking, no guess, no projections
01[15:00] >Threei>  just follow the routine
[15:00] >_syncc> im still trying to figure out how you guys make these setups wo begin with
[15:00] >_syncc> to begin with*
[15:01] >_syncc> i can read what you guys are saying, but where does it come from
[15:01] >patel> ahhhhh not on short list
[15:01] >thomcbell> scalp rules on rimm
01[15:03] >Threei>  http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html
[15:04] >_syncc> everyone here took the course??
[15:04] >scottie> I did
[15:05] >dino> wow selloff
01[15:05] >Threei>  almost everyone but me
[15:05] >Will49> my next step
[15:05] >scottie> lol
01[15:06] >Threei>  but I am way behind, I haven't read MPP yet...
[15:06] >dino> syncc i read the books. but after awhile your "gut' tales over. subcon recognition i think
[15:06] >scottie> stop .56
[15:11] >_syncc> scottie, dino will etc.... is this your full time job?
[15:11] >scottie> job? what job ?
[15:12] >_syncc> i had a feeling id get sny remarks..
[15:12] >_syncc> you should all be stand up comedians
[15:12] >scottie> I'm on it full time yes, lol
[15:12] >_syncc> :)
[15:12] >Will49> learning
[15:13] >Will49> full time learning
[15:13] >scottie> I too am learning
[15:13] >thomcbell> going to flatten rimm here at 13.25
[15:13] >dino> full time trader yes, 35 hours/week. real estate speculation on the side
[15:13] >_syncc> interesting, i was going to take some real estate courses at schulich
[15:14] >_syncc> until I fell in love with accounting
[15:14] >_syncc> you wont hear too many students say that..
[15:14] >dino> i've been here w/vad since 2002 i think
[15:14] >_syncc> oh man, and youre still here
[15:14] >_syncc> Thats a positive indication
[15:15] >scottie> been here 6 months
[15:15] >dino> i have a bs in finance syncc. but it hurt me w/trading, because there is no efficient market, etc. too many book tought theories. they do not work w/tape rading
[15:15] >dino> reading
01[15:15] >Threei>  wow... a lot of selling
[15:16] >dino> only advice i can give you is to find your "edge". w/o it you are f#cked
[15:16] >dino> and remember, les is more (keep it simple)
[15:16] >scottie> out
[15:16] >Will49> good trade scottie
[15:17] >Will49> you worked it
[15:17] >scottie> tks will
[15:17] >dino> wtg scott
[15:17] >scottie> and dino
01[15:18] >Threei>  dino... and when you say "les is more," you mean our switzerland friend, right?
[15:18] >nemo> Less Les is more
[15:19] >nemo> no les best
[15:19] >_syncc> interesting dino
[15:21] >dino> lol vad, no i mean less, typo. but for me my edge is to find my setups and keep it simple
[15:22] >dino> imo syncc, you must find your edge. what wors for you. million ways to trade, must find yours
[15:22] >dino> wors=works
[15:22] >_syncc> that isssss why im trialing this chatroom
[15:23] >_syncc> unless i take the course, I will probably just follow along with the trades you guys say
01[15:23] >Threei>  it's not unless
[15:23] >_syncc> although, I am not sure if day trading is for me, Im too emotional
[15:23] >dino> become a machine or you will die
01[15:23] >Threei>  market will cure that rather fast, lol
01[15:24] >Threei>  emotions turn off at 9:30 and on at 4 om
01[15:24] >Threei>  between that, it's pure execution
[15:24] >dino> one missed stop will destroy a week of great trades. you must be a machine w/stops
01[15:25] >Threei>  when you buy an apple, you exchange money for nutrients. Do you get emotional about that?
[15:25] >dino> further, depending on your style 3 or 4 stops a day may be fine. typically i have 2 to 3 and do ok
01[15:25] >Threei>  when you buy a stock, you exchange money for potential profit
01[15:25] >Threei>  don't get emotional about that either'
01[15:25] >Threei>  you may get bad apple
01[15:25] >Threei>  and you may get bad trade
01[15:26] >Threei>  both are subject to discarding
01[15:26] >Threei>  and moving on to the next
01[15:26] >Threei>  none is subject to emotions
[15:26] >dino> or... if a stock hits your stop ditch like a cheating girlfriend. both only emotionally mess you up
[15:27] >_syncc> ahahahah
[15:27] >_syncc> best analagy yet, dino
[15:27] >thomcbell> lets be honest - rimm trades great
[15:27] >thomcbell> lol
[15:27] >_syncc> but I do see the logic behind what you are saying Vad and Dino, it is going to take time for me. An entirely new mindset..
[15:27] >_syncc> I concur, thomcbell
[15:28] >dino> as the greatest trader ever said; i loss only bothers me until i take it. (jesse livermoore, rem. of a stock trader). think about it. once the loss is taken, you move on. awesome book by the way
[15:29] >_syncc> that's true. It does eat at you until you take the loss. Good idea to put stops in when you are in a clear state of mind, and let your stretegy play things out
[15:29] >dino> 07 still red, wow
[15:30] >dino> syncc. profits=luck, stops=skill. make stops your religion
01[15:31] >Threei> Short Setup: FB  .60 break
01[15:31] >Threei>  If holds  .70
01[15:36] >Threei>  SPY went red
01[15:41] >Threei>  let's keep stop .66 here
[15:43] >dino> 3 pm pattern is to go short an up market
[15:46] >dino> 07 red again
01[15:53] >Threei>  time's running out
[15:53] >_syncc> well im off, thanks guys for your insights
01[15:54] >Threei>  take care syncc
[15:54] >patel> alright guys
[15:54] >patel> take care
[15:54] >Will49> c ya patel
01[15:56] >Threei>  scratching FB
01[15:56] >Threei>  thank you all
[15:56] >Will49> TTFN everyone
01[15:56] >Threei>  have a great evening, see you tomorrow
[15:57] >dino> gn all, thx for ideas
[15:57] >scottie> gn everyone

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Dec 11 2012

Decent day even though second half was a on a boring side.

Certain patterns often repeat themselves several times on intraday chart. In this case, we went for a short trade based on relative strength (FB was weaker than market overall, bouncing weakly while SPY hit new highs), and counting of repetition of the earlier sharp drop. That was exactly what happened. There also was somewhat humoristic element to a trade, read the embedded comments.



Session Time: Tue Dec 11 00:00:00 2012
[08:48] {dino} gm
01[08:49] {Threei}  morning dino
[08:57] {nemo} anybody here from Houston?
01[09:01] {Threei}  you might want to try again when more folks connect :)
[09:02] {patel} Good Morning All
[09:02] {patel} nemo: 6 hours away from Houston
01[09:02] {Threei}  patel :)
[09:02] {nemo} something tells me your not a Houston fan...
[09:03] {patel} lol
[09:03] {patel} huge Cowboys fan
[09:03] {patel} whcih is probably worst than being a Texans fan right now.
[09:09] {scottie} good morning
01[09:09] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:09] {patel} gm scottie
[09:11] {thomcbell} aig strong as 10 men
[09:11] {scottie} patel
01[09:12] {Threei}  American International Group, Inc US Treasury confirms plans to sell remaining stakeof 234M common shares at $32.50/shr- Treasury will continue to hold warrants to buy 2.7M shares
[09:13] {thomcbell} an sales trader friend of mine says shares placed in strong hands - preference to large funds with longer than our holding period - :)
01[09:14] {Threei}  yup: Underwirters include BofA Merrill, Citi, Deutsche Bank, Goldman, JP Morgan
[09:15] {Beau} good morning
01[09:15] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:18] {Will49} Good morning
01[09:18] {Threei}  will :)
[09:19] {thomcbell} AIG originally failed around 34.18 this am and then pulled in to 33.78 or so and then just rallied back up to 34.28
[09:19] {thomcbell} i am very interested in buying a pullback
01[09:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .30 break hl
01[09:32] {Threei}  If holds  .20
01[09:33] {Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:34] {Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .20 break
01[09:34] {Threei}  If holds  .10
01[09:35] {Threei}  no go
01[09:36] {Threei}  wow
01[09:36] {Threei}  no news
01[09:37] {Threei}  serious rug pull
[09:37] {nemo} mcp running in a short squeeze
[09:37] {thomcbell} short setup lvs 44.70 break if holding 44.80 half lot
[09:38] {thomcbell} lvs 1:1
[09:41] {thomcbell} lvs flat
[09:41] {dino} kmt drop, pulp
[09:42] {dino} hl l .00
[09:42] {nemo} euro markets on their highs
01[09:43] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .45 break hl
01[09:43] {Threei}  If holds  .35
[09:45] {dino} trip drop
[09:46] {dino} halt
01[09:46] {Threei}  circuit breaker
[09:46] {thomcbell} long setup aig 34.26 if holding 34.16
[09:46] {nemo} wow, circuit breaker when it's up 10 %
01[09:46] {Threei}  CAT 1:1
01[09:47] {Threei}  1:2
[09:47] {scottie} +.19 tks Vad
[09:47] {thomcbell} aig 1:1
01[09:47] {Threei}  1:4
01[09:47] {Threei}  eeck
[09:47] {patel} tks Vad
[09:47] {Will49} tks Vad
[09:47] {patel} nice
01[09:47] {Threei}  welcome guys
[09:47] {thomcbell} aig 1:2
01[09:47] {Threei}  those breakers and for a change, direction agnostic
01[09:48] {Threei}  nice AIG
[09:48] {patel} what is a circuit breaker?
[09:48] {thomcbell} AIG 1:3 for a second
[09:48] {nemo} it's like a fuse when there's a power overload
01[09:49] {Threei}  idiotic invention... they halt stock if price changes 10% or more in some short time, don't remember which
[09:49] {nemo} under 5 minutes I think
[09:49] {patel} ahh
01[09:49] {Threei}  instituted after flash crash to save us from ourselves
01[09:50] {Threei}  as usual, does more harm than good
[09:50] {nemo} Tax those yacht buyers
01[09:50] {Threei}  but who cares, they need to be seen as taking measures
[09:50] {patel} on that FB i had a stop in place and it stopped me out 5 cents below my stop price.
[09:50] {nemo} ohh...mmmhhh put the boat companies out of business and all those blue collar jobs
[09:50] {nemo} we're going for Wr1 on spy and that volume resistance in the .40ish area
01[09:51] {Threei}  why do you use automated stops?
01[09:51] {Threei}  you are her, you can do it manually better
01[09:51] {Threei}  here
[09:51] {patel} my prop firm
[09:51] {patel} sent me an email to tell me that I need to have stops in place at all times.
[09:52] {patel} I got an email from them on Friday that if I am not in their chat room daily then they will cut my BP.
01[09:52] {Threei}  are you trading their money?
[09:52] {patel} it's my money but I am using their money as well.
[09:53] {dino} kmt to .36
[09:53] {cipher} infi l.67
[09:53] {dino} kmt to .40
[09:54] {cipher} out infi .07 +.40
[09:54] {dino} out +.40 kmt
[09:54] {Will49} caching dino!
[09:54] {Will49} ca-ching
[09:55] {dino} lol, ty
[09:55] {cipher} trip open
[09:56] {cipher} TRIP L.14
01[09:56] {Threei}  wow CAT
01[09:56] {Threei}  can we have some back?
[09:56] {cipher} out trip .44 +.30
[09:58] {thomcbell} half lot - FIO 22.30 break if holding 22.20
01[09:59] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  .95 break
01[09:59] {Threei}  If holds  .05
[09:59] {thomcbell} fio 1:1
[10:00] {thomcbell} lvs 44.80 break if holding 44.90 - half lot
[10:00] {thomcbell} fio 1:2
01[10:00] {Threei}  (US) Dec IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 45.1 v 50.0e
[10:01] {thomcbell} flat FIO 2.47
[10:01] {thomcbell} 22.47
[10:01] {thomcbell} wow AIG is a beast
01[10:04] {Threei} Short Setup: AIG  .60 break
[10:05] {dptl} good morning all
01[10:05] {Threei}  If holds  .70
01[10:05] {Threei}  dp :)
01[10:06] {Threei}  FB taregt 1:3
[10:06] {thomcbell} u still there on FB Vad?
01[10:06] {Threei}  AIG, le't trail to .66
01[10:06] {Threei}  1:1 FB
01[10:06] {Threei}  1:2
[10:07] {scottie} fb +.19 tks
[10:07] {robbers} out fb, thanks
01[10:07] {Threei}  :)
01[10:07] {Threei}  huh!
01[10:07] {Threei}  look at this
01[10:07] {Threei}  11 Dec 10:04[FB] Notes Facebook gifts service expanded to all of US effective today - financial press
[10:07] {thomcbell} pivot is 27.70
01[10:07] {Threei}  sure thing, thanks for this gift FB
[10:08] {nemo} runaway rally europe still ripping higher
[10:08] {thomcbell} lvs switch to more aggressive 44.82 break
[10:09] {thomcbell} in
01[10:09] {Threei}  this rug pull is almost exact repetition of the one earlier in the morning, and counting on it was one of two reasons for the trade
01[10:10] {Threei}  AIG 1:1
[10:10] {thomcbell} lvs target is 1:2
[10:10] {thomcbell} mgiht be dumb - market very strong here
[10:11] {robbers} out aig, thanks again
01[10:11] {Threei}  yw
[10:13] {thomcbell} lvs stop to 44.80 - not playing games with this setup
01[10:15] {Threei}  (US) Senator minority leader McConnell (R-KY): Pres Obama and his Democrat allies refuse to be pinned down on any specific budget cuts - Senate floor speech- Concerned Democrats want to increase revenue with no spending control.
[10:15] {cipher} hlss s .23
[10:16] {thomcbell} lvs 1:1
[10:17] {dino} esio hl l .00
[10:18] {thomcbell} going to look for an fcx long setup here near the pivot
[10:19] {thomcbell} lvs 1:2 and out
[10:19] {dino} gj
[10:19] {scottie} great tbell
[10:20] {cipher} cov hlss .22 +.01
01[10:23] {Threei}  visual: http://goo.gl/EVG5u
[10:24] {cipher} hlss s.22
01[10:24] {Threei}  GLD looks miserable
[10:25] {patel} how does AIG above 34.61 look
01[10:26] {Threei}  valid long but kind of 51/49
[10:26] {thomcbell} i was thinking the same thing but holding off
01[10:26] {Threei}  not very high odds of it working
[10:26] {patel} yeah
[10:26] {patel} lets leave it alone
[10:27] {patel} 2 to 1 you guys win
[10:28] {thomcbell} aig looks like a possible short setup under 34.48 - to remove some of the froth
01[10:29] {Threei}  let the process of froth removal begin
[10:31] {cipher} cov hlss .17 +.05
[10:32] {thomcbell} FB long setup 28.01 break if holding 27.91
01[10:34] {Threei}  HOG
01[10:35] {Threei}  chatter that hired advisors for company sale
[10:35] {cipher} dltr s .50
[10:35] {cipher} cov .37
[10:36] {cipher} dltr l.35
[10:36] {cipher} out .46
[10:37] {dino} nice
[10:37] {patel} nice cipher
[10:37] {thomcbell} fcx trying to do something here
01[10:38] {Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .20 break
[10:38] {patel} looking like a long play
[10:38] {patel} around 31.93
01[10:38] {Threei}  If holds  .30
01[10:39] {Threei} Short Setup: HOG  .50 break hl
01[10:39] {Threei}  If holds  .60
01[10:39] {Threei}  1:1 but good luck getting a fill
[10:40] {patel} definitely didnt get filled
[10:40] {thomcbell} FB invalidated
[10:42] {thomcbell} FB Invalidated and Tired
[10:42] {Will49} you or the stock?
[10:42] {dino} gco hl l .14 thin
[10:44] {thomcbell} FB
[10:44] {Will49} :)
[10:47] {nemo} would be reasonable for spy to test 144 now that it's here
[10:50] {cipher} dltr s.38
[10:51] {nemo} Boehner speaking at noon
[10:52] {patel} "Short Boner"
01[10:52] {Threei}  yikes
01[10:52] {Threei}  lol
[10:52] {nemo} pathetic
[10:53] {patel} had to get that one out.
[10:53] {patel} where did cc go?
[10:53] {scottie} chkp l .90 if holds .80 ?
01[10:54] {Threei}  50/50 scottie
[10:54] {scottie} ok
01[10:54] {Threei}  51/49 at best
[10:55] {cipher} cov dltr .50 -.12
[10:55] {thomcbell} do u still have ESIO?
[10:57] {dino} yes
01[10:58] {Threei}  good call on FB, tbell
01[10:59] {Threei}  it's trying to change the pattern now
01[10:59] {Threei}  28 break will be interesting for long if consolidates for a few min
01[10:59] {Threei}  right now, not so much
01[10:59] {Threei}  staying away
[10:59] {patel} thoguths on JCP
[11:00] {patel} my stop is 2 wide
[11:00] {patel} 16 cents risk
01[11:00] {Threei}  .60 break was decent setup
01[11:00] {Threei}  where are you in?
[11:00] {dino} pdce hl l .80
[11:01] {dino} .70 i mean
[11:01] {patel} I didnt take it
[11:01] {patel} was thinking about it at 19.66
01[11:01] {Threei}  let's see if it holds .60
01[11:01] {Threei}  if so, might still be good
01[11:01] {Threei}  risk is very small here
01[11:02] {Threei}  nope, invalidated
[11:02] {patel} lol
01[11:02] {Threei}  look at it this way:
01[11:02] {Threei}  long consolidation under .60, formed nice JBE,
01[11:02] {Threei}  break of .60 wa a good setup,
01[11:02] {Threei}  and it worked if you tried for a quick scalp.
01[11:03] {Threei}  On its way back though, you want it to hold \.60
01[11:03] {Threei}  old resistance, new support
01[11:03] {Threei}  it lost .60, bets are off
[11:04] {patel} yeah
01[11:10] {Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .95 break
01[11:10] {Threei}  If holds  .90
01[11:10] {Threei}  as we move in lunch time, picking setups with tightest stops
01[11:12] {Threei} Short Setup: AIG  .65 break
01[11:13] {Threei}  If holds  .75
[11:13] {dino} jw/a drop
[11:13] {dino} casy spike
[11:14] {cipher} dino jw?
[11:14] {nemo} we probably have one more break higher in the market
[11:14] {scottie} where do you intend to partial out on FB ?
01[11:15] {Threei}  just under 28.05
01[11:15] {Threei}  and aim for 1:3
[11:15] {dino} hog hod
[11:15] {dino} jw/a cipher
[11:15] {nemo} AIG likely to close gap on spy break
01[11:16] {Threei}  considering 8-10 cents ratio, not actual stop under .90 :)
01[11:16] {Threei}  AIG may be two-sided
[11:16] {nemo} here we go
01[11:16] {Threei}  I am just not a big fan of l,unch time breakouts
[11:16] {dino} penn drop
01[11:16] {Threei}  too many traps
01[11:17] {Threei}  so my take is, if short side triggers I'll take it, and if long - I'll stay away
01[11:17] {Threei}  FB long is a different animal, it's a pullback entry, not a breakout
[11:22] {nemo} yep
[11:23] {nemo} o.k. next level above 144 is 144.20ish
[11:24] {dptl} cc8 dcc please
[11:24] {dino} out gco .38, +.24
01[11:25] {Threei}  wtg
[11:25] {cc_8} on it
[11:25] {dino} ty
[11:26] {nemo} we should hit new highs for the year by Xmas
01[11:27] {Threei}  - The positive European data out overnight plus the typical pre-FOMC gains are sending US equity indices higher this morning. The DJIA and S&P500 are up 0.8% in the early going, while the Nasdaq is up 1.4% thanks to people stepping in to buy Apple, which itself is up 3.5%.
01[11:27] {Threei}  - There is still no concrete progress from the fiscal cliff talks, although press reports yesterday evening suggested that progress was being made and talks were becoming more substantive over recent days. House Speaker Boehner will update on the latest at 12 noon.
01[11:27] {Threei}  - The FOMC meeting tomorrow is also being seen as a big driver of gains this morning. Analysts point out that US equity markets have rallied ahead of five of the seven FOMC meetings this year. In three of the five rallies, the market sold off the day after the meeting.
01[11:27] {Threei}  unless they decide no deal, nemo
01[11:28] {Threei}  I'd think we will see a lot of nervous twists and turns next 3 weeks
[11:31] {nemo} Ha!  Spy hit R4 as the high
[11:31] {dino} out pdce .91, +.21
[11:33] {scottie} EMC l .50 if holds .45 ?
01[11:35] {Threei}  I think so
[11:35] {dino} esio to .10, thing doesn't move
01[11:36] {Threei}  FB makes a triangle
01[11:37] {Threei}  and bands are tightening
01[11:37] {Threei}  resolution nears
[11:38] {dino} out esio +.10
01[11:38] {Threei}  taking singles today, dino? :)
01[11:38] {Threei}  More than 10,000 people protest in Michigan as state house debates right-to-work legislation
[11:39] {Will49} 10K union workers
01[11:39] {Threei}  funny (in a sad way) banner unfolded by protesters: "Right to work is wrong for Michigan"
[11:39] {thomcbell} wow underestimated how much FIO had in it today
[11:41] {thomcbell} lvs looks vulnerable again to me
[11:41] {thomcbell} wynn red for crying out loud
[11:42] {dino} base hits, thats correct
[11:43] {Will49} looks like everybody waiting for Boehner to take the mound
[11:44] {dino} he's going to say the same old same old
[11:44] {Will49} so far he's been walking the runs in
01[11:48] {Threei}  ok FB, it's time
01[11:49] {Threei}  not only you are infuriatingly mad business, you also make us wait too long for your stock to movbe
01[11:49] {Threei}  where is ese, his hatred for FB would have had a good outlet right now
[11:51] {Will49} he's teaching impressionable kids to appreciate socialism
01[11:52] {Threei}  might be just a skill to teach...
01[11:52] {Threei}  heard Immelt on TV yesterday? "State communism works"
[11:53] {scottie} in EMC .51
[11:53] {dino} kill me now
01[11:53] {Threei}  yes sir... until you are in GULAG
01[11:54] {Threei}  because the only way it works is by labor of millions of slaves
[11:54] {Will49} well?
[11:54] {dptl} jcp .50 short?
[11:54] {Will49} di lives!
[11:54] {Will49} dp
01[11:55] {Threei}  half lot dp
[11:55] {dptl} ok if stays below .60
01[11:56] {Threei}  right
01[11:56] {Threei}  there is a lot of air under that .50
01[11:56] {Threei}  but things are very slow
[11:57] {Will49} Boehner is in the bullpen warming up
01[11:57] {Threei}  last touch of spray-on tan?
[11:57] {patel} he is warming up with the bases loaded
[11:58] {Will49} and I'm on base
01[11:58] {Threei}  you are meanies
[11:58] {patel} FB is on 3rd base
[11:58] {patel} trying to score
01[11:58] {Threei}  I'll hang out with nemo, he is kind and gentle
[11:59] {Will49} hopefully he walks us in patel
[11:59] {patel} yeah
[11:59] {patel} think I should post a status message on facebook
[11:59] {Will49} lol
01[11:59] {Threei}  and he knows math, here is math lesson as nemo sees it: http://goo.gl/hwrRW
[12:01] {scottie} lol
[12:01] {Will49} has the big right-hander thrown any strikes yet?
[12:02] {patel} just got to teh mound
[12:02] {Will49} i want to know when to run
[12:02] {Will49} or steel maybe
[12:02] {Will49} steal
01[12:03] {Threei}  here it goes
01[12:03] {Threei}  (US) House Speaker Boehner (R-OH): Republicans have made a serious offer on the budget, still waiting for White House specifics on cuts
01[12:04] {Threei}  - Hopeful can reach an agreement
01[12:05] {Threei}  - Still red ink as far as eye can see
01[12:06] {Threei}  move your lazy butt, FB
01[12:06] {Threei}  - Reiterates the White House is "slow walking" the negotiations.
[12:07] {thomcbell} aig relentless
01[12:08] {Threei}  JCP is valid still
[12:09] {dptl} not in short list
[12:10] {Will49} evrybody gone to get a hot dog with bases still loaded
[12:10] {dino} fdo hl l .10
[12:12] {Will49} should have used a hockey metaphor...would have been a faster ame
[12:12] {Will49} game
01[12:12] {Threei}  ah, so it's your fault
[12:12] {patel} or go with the 2 minute drill.
[12:12] {Will49} yeah
01[12:13] {Threei}  well, to be fair to today: it's still faster than yesterday was, and we had much better morning, with 3 very nice hits one after another
01[12:13] {Threei}  or 4
01[12:13] {Threei}  my math is fuzzy after that nemo lesson
01[12:14] {Threei}  I noticed he counts rounds fired, dead bodies and vodka shots much faster thasn he does chocolate cakes
[12:15] {dino} out fdo .34 +.24
01[12:15] {Threei}  JCP works, even though on paper
01[12:15] {Threei}  who had it for short, play by the book
01[12:17] {Threei}  I don't think this gal is sane at all:
01[12:17] {Threei}  (US) House Minority Leader Pelosi (D-CA) reiterates call for Republicans to act to vote on middle class tax cuts; President's plan already agrees to $1.6T in spending cuts- Tax reform should be left for the next session of Congress. - Notes that spending changes to entitlement programs shouldnt be used as a method to subsidize tax cuts for wealthy
01[12:18] {Threei}  1:1 JCP
[12:18] {Will49} good call dp
[12:18] {dptl} :)
[12:19] {dino} that esio sob decides to hit my stop and go
01[12:20] {Threei}  sobs tend to do that
[12:25] {dptl} gmcr .30 short?
01[12:27] {Threei}  can't tell
01[12:27] {Threei}  unclear to me... rather yes but no conviction for a trade
[12:28] {dptl} k
01[12:31] {Threei}  FB stopped
[12:32] {patel} SWHC long position??
01[12:33] {Threei}  too narrow
[12:34] {dino} dg lod
01[12:35] {Threei}  thisd is third rug pull today on FB
[12:38] {dino} just walk away
[12:38] {dino} "better worlds than this"
01[12:38] {Threei}  no, not interested in it for today
01[12:38] {Threei}  just making an observation to get an idea how to play it from now on
[12:39] {dino} ahh
[12:41] {dptl} hes .60 short?
01[12:45] {Threei}  water torture
[12:45] {nemo} X
01[12:45] {Threei}  another one like FB, will be stuck for hours
[12:46] {dptl} ye... you right
01[12:49] {Threei}  JCP 1:2 is near
01[12:49] {Threei}  very near
[12:49] {patel} nice call on JCP
[12:49] {dptl} ye, to bad not available...Nemo's fault
[12:49] {patel} who is your broker
01[12:50] {Threei}  I am sure
01[12:58] {Threei}  nearer
01[12:58] {Threei}  HES starts looking like long dp
01[12:59] {Threei}  still not delighted by the stock, but if I had to tarde it, gun to head, I'd rather take long on .70 break
[13:00] {dptl} ye but still torturing look
01[13:02] {Threei}  1:2
[13:03] {patel} JCP 1:3
[13:03] {dptl} snif snif...oh wait a min...
06[13:03] * dptl slaps nemo around a bit with a large trout
[13:03] {patel} or 1:2
[13:03] {dptl} there....fill better now
[13:03] {dptl} feel
[13:10] {dino} fdo sm l .20 trigger
[13:18] {thomcbell} oh ESIO was a goodie
[13:18] {thomcbell} i know it wasnt but.....
[13:20] {dino} fdo stop +.02
01[13:31] {Threei} Short Setup: X  .50 break
01[13:31] {Threei}  If holds  .57
[13:32] {dptl} rht .90 short?
01[13:33] {Threei}  hl, yes
01[13:34] {Threei}  Michigan lawmakers approve right-to-work bill for private employees, 58-52
[13:35] {Will49} three cheers
[13:36] {dptl} in rht
01[13:37] {Threei}  should be capable of 1:2
01[13:38] {Threei}  Invalidated  X
[13:39] {dino} .
01[13:40] {Threei}  good point
[13:41] {dino} jwn l .99
[13:41] {thomcbell} Vad i sent you something in chat
01[13:43] {Threei}  responded
[13:47] {thomcbell} long setup FB 28 break if holding 27.92 - half lot due to annoying nature of stock
01[13:47] {Threei}  I'll leave it be for today
01[13:50] {Threei}  things don't trade, they simply drift up and down aimlessly
06[13:50] * Threei hits RHT over the head with 2x4
[13:50] {nemo} we're mimicking euro markets  fb also at serious resistance, probably needs some backing and filling
[13:55] {scottie} PL s .55 if holds .60 ?
01[13:56] {Threei}  yup, aggressive for .50
[13:56] {thomcbell} fio lol
[13:57] {patel} pl
[13:58] {scottie} in .53
[13:59] {dino} out jwn +.10
[14:01] {thomcbell} flattening FB here 27.99
[14:02] {scottie} out
01[14:02] {Threei}  (US) White House's Carney: President Obama has put forward detailed spending cuts ***Note that earlier today, Speaker Boehner and Senator minority leader McConnell (R-KY) asserted that Pres Obama has refused to be pinned down on any specific budget cuts
01[14:02] {Threei}  what is it, a joke to them?
01[14:03] {Threei}  you did not! - did too!
01[14:07] {Threei}  SPY is firmly glued to this level
[14:07] {thomcbell} when the lionshare of the voting population is at the trough - he doesnt have to care
01[14:10] {Threei}  believe it or not but RHT can reach 1:1 this, yes I said THIS century!
[14:11] {dptl} :) another torture
01[14:12] {Threei}  everything is right now... look at GOOG
01[14:12] {Threei}  even this monster doesn't move
01[14:13] {Threei}  here we go... 1:1
[14:13] {dptl} out some
[14:14] {dino} fdo sm l .65
01[14:18] {Threei}  ok, probably time to try this
01[14:18] {Threei} Short Setup: AIG  .10 break
01[14:18] {Threei}  If holds  .20
01[14:18] {Threei}  let's still do hl, out of respect to immobile market
[14:18] {dino} stop fdo -.16
[14:19] {dptl} was yesterday as slow?
01[14:19] {Threei}  second half of the day, yes
[14:19] {dino} wtf rinsed
[14:25] {scottie} aig two-sided ?
01[14:27] {Threei}  chart wise yes...
01[14:27] {Threei}  I can't bring myself to buy here though
[14:27] {nemo} look at the daily
[14:27] {dino} just a lot of random dancing
[14:28] {nemo} yeah so far the "finish like europe" scenario is playing out
[14:33] {dptl} stop to .86 rht
01[14:34] {Threei}  RHT... again, believe it or not but 1:2 is coming this millenia
[14:35] {dptl} yeah :)
01[14:35] {Threei}  AIG...
[14:37] {Will49} tks Vad 1:1 out AIG
[14:38] {Will49} no patience today :)
01[14:38] {Threei}  :)
[14:40] {dptl} ok rht i am out....
01[14:46] {Threei}  1:3 baby
[14:46] {dptl} :) hmm..1:3 didt expect that :)
01[14:46] {Threei}  (still in "believe it or not" category)
[14:46] {dptl} yeah
[14:48] {scottie} aig rinse
[14:49] {robbers} great call, aig
[14:52] {scottie} rimm .60 if holds .55 ?
01[14:53] {Threei}  I hate it
[14:53] {scottie} ok
[14:53] {Will49} tell us how you really feel Vad
01[14:54] {Threei}  hehe
[14:54] {scottie} did it feel god to say it ?
[14:54] {scottie} GOOD
01[14:54] {Threei}  it actually did, lol
[14:55] {dptl} lol
01[14:55] {Threei}  and I will feel even gooder when times comes to short RIMM again
[14:56] {dptl} got to go see ya tomorrow all :)
[14:57] {scottie} dp
[14:57] {Will49} peace dp
01[14:58] {Threei}  take care dp
[14:58] {dino} cya dp
[14:59] {nemo} fas might be a long play here above .30
[15:01] {nemo} spy just above the open
01[15:02] {Threei}  hey, did I have a reason to hate an idea of RIMM long or did I not
[15:02] {scottie} I guess so lol
[15:02] {Will49} you da man
01[15:02] {Threei}  last time I checked, I am...
01[15:03] {Threei}  boy, dp nailed that RHT setup perfectly
[15:04] {dino} thats how he got his nickname
[15:04] {dino} dynamite picks
[15:04] {Will49} lol
[15:04] {dino} can you tell i'm bored
01[15:04] {Threei}  hehe
[15:05] {patel} The 1st 1.5 hours are fun these days.
[15:05] {patel} the rest is just boring as it can get.
[15:05] {dino} pretty much, by 11:00 am tings really die
[15:06] {nemo} well, this is interesting
[15:07] {dino} going for red maybe, lots of time to do it
[15:08] {nemo} wow...that would be impressive
[15:18] {dino} still droping
[15:18] {dino} dropping
[15:18] {patel} Math Question:
[15:19] {Will49} what is 2+2?
[15:19] {patel} If Robbie had 52 candy bars and he ate 38 of them in one day. How much did he have left at the end of the day?
01[15:20] {Threei}  I refuse to take any math questions where numbers exceed the number of fingers on two hands
[15:20] {nemo} O.k. got a joke:
[15:20] {patel} I figured we are all bored.
[15:20] {nemo} Guy walks into a store where they sell brains in a jar
[15:21] {nemo} Irish brains $42/lb
[15:21] {patel} the answer was DIABETES
[15:21] {nemo} French brains $33/lb
[15:21] {Will49} lol
[15:21] {nemo} Ukranian brains $435/lb
[15:21] {nemo} Guy goes "wtf!  how come Ukranian brains are so expensive
[15:22] {nemo} Store guy says, "You have any idea how many Ukranians it takes to get a pound of brains?!"
[15:22] {thomcbell} i gotta run guys - nice day
[15:22] {patel} lol
[15:22] {Will49} haha
[15:22] {scottie} lol
[15:22] {dino} cya
[15:22] {nemo} like that Vad?
[15:22] {Will49} c ya Tbell
[15:22] {scottie} tbell
[15:22] {patel} take care tbell
01[15:24] {Threei}  take care tbell
01[15:25] {Threei}  what can I say nemo... I heard this joke in 50 versions, each differing by the subject joke teller wanted to target
[15:25] {Will49} oh oh Vad is not amused
[15:26] {nemo} yeah me too
01[15:26] {Threei}  I am not ukrainian by nationality so I wouldn;t care much :)
[15:26] {nemo} true
[15:28] {nemo} I'd almost say tna long here, stop under .00 for a run to .40ish
[15:35] {Will49} sheesh nemo...why did you have to say "almost"?
[15:35] {nemo} o.k. next time I'll just call it
[15:35] {Will49} :)
01[15:36] {Threei}  the pain of admitting that nemo was right, eh will?
[15:36] {Will49} :)
[15:36] {Will49} :(
01[15:36] {Threei}  yup, that's the struggle I deal with daily
[15:37] {nemo} it's amazing...looks like iwm will finish above R3, SPY above R2, and finnies, probably in the area of R1, but the end of the day makes it feel like a bad market day
[15:37] {nemo} and actually iwm could keep going with spy heading for .55
[15:51] {patel} alright guys
01[15:51] {Threei}  ok... no more trades
01[15:52] {Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
01[15:52] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:52] {scottie} gn all
[15:52] {patel} I think I will head out. I need to go play on facebook.
[15:52] {dino} gn all, thx for ideas
[15:52] {dino} st drop

Monday, December 10, 2012

Dec 10 2012

Very low volume slow trading with no spark whatsoever. Squeezed barely profitable day but whether it was even worth waking up for remains open question.


Session Time: Mon Dec 10 00:00:00 2012
01[09:01] {Threei}  yawn... I guess it's time to face the reeality
01[09:01] {Threei}  wow, everyone is asleep yet
[09:07] {ese} "Have yourself a merry little trading time........Let the yule.........."   altogether now!!!!!!  "Have yourself...........
01[09:07] {Threei}  lol
[09:07] {ese} hmmmmmmmmm......tough crowd
01[09:07] {Threei}  morning ese
[09:07] {ese} morning
01[09:07] {Threei}  everyone's asleep yet
01[09:08] {Threei}  the farther in the winter, the closer to market opening people come in
[09:08] {ese} tis the season to party your brains out for sure..........takes mon, tue and wed to recover and then back at it for the next couple of weekends
01[09:09] {Threei}  yeah, I hate mon, tue, wed, thu and half of fri
01[09:11] {Threei}  if you want to enrtain yourself meanwhile, have a look at this: http://acrossthestreetnet.wordpress.com/2012/11/28/the-cost-of-kidding-yourself/
[09:14] {dino} gm
01[09:15] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:16] {ese} thats an excellent article.......where did you find that
01[09:16] {Threei}  stumbled onto it somwhere on interenet
01[09:17] {Threei}  that's where ben and the rest of free-spending crowd takes us
[09:18] {Beau} good morning
01[09:18] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:18] {scottie} good morning
01[09:18] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:18] {ese} beau scottie
[09:19] {scottie} ese
[09:21] {Will49} good morning
01[09:21] {Threei}  will :)
[09:22] {ese} will
[09:22] {Will49} :)
01[09:23] {Threei}  anyone guess whose photo it is? (if he were a cat that is)
01[09:23] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/b10mL
[09:23] {patel} Good Morning room!!!
01[09:23] {Threei}  patel :)
[09:24] {ese} patel
[09:24] {ese} ok I give up........excellent photo though
[09:24] {Will49} Nemo?
01[09:24] {Threei}  of course
01[09:24] {Threei}  come on ese... who here doesan't believe mornings can be good
[09:24] {ese} rotflol
[09:25] {ese} good one will
[09:25] {Will49} hope that's the beginning of a winning streak
[09:26] {ese} i thought you were talking about some political nutball
[09:26] {Will49} well?
01[09:26] {Threei}  just a nutball, ese {G}
[09:26] {ese} lol
[09:27] {ese} could say a whole lot worse
[09:27] {ese} we'll leave it at nutballl for now
01[09:27] {Threei}  my feeling is, selling is about to resume, but I'll prefer to sit out first minutes
01[09:27] {Threei}  JPM is interestingly weak
[09:27] {ese} spyders have been sliding for about 30 min now
01[09:28] {Threei}  keeping an eye for possible short
[09:28] {nemo} MCD 
01[09:28] {Threei}  FCX on the other hand...
01[09:28] {Threei}  rather long but let's let it workm out opening volatility
01[09:29] {Threei}  MCD decent report
[09:30] {thomcbell} FB im looking for a long entry 
01[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: JPM  .50 break
01[09:31] {Threei}  If holds  .60 
[09:32] {thomcbell} fcx tested daily pivot there at 31.80 
01[09:32] {Threei}  not yet, JPM
01[09:33] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .95 break hl
01[09:33] {Threei}  If holds  .85 
01[09:34] {Threei}  target 1:3
01[09:36] {Threei}  no go
01[09:36] {Threei}  1 cent to 1:1
01[09:36] {Threei}  probably rinse
[09:37] {thomcbell} short setup lvs 43.90 break if holding 44
[09:37] {nemo} shorting into support and daily pivot
[09:38] {nemo} keep the lube handy
[09:39] {thomcbell} ok thanks 
[09:39] {nemo} not that I might not be wrong, just looking at the chart
01[09:40] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .40 break
01[09:40] {Threei}  If holds  .30 
01[09:40] {Threei}  frikin JPM
01[09:40] {Threei}  got away
[09:40] {robbers} wash. rinse. repeat.
01[09:40] {Threei}  Monday open... often like this
01[09:41] {Threei}  OK SLW, be a good boy
01[09:42] {Threei}  give us 1:3
[09:43] {ese} L geo .34
[09:43] {ese} popped up on me ....awesome
01[09:43] {Threei}  nice
[09:44] {ese} 1/2 .55 +.21
[09:45] {dino} gj
[09:45] {ese} tks
01[09:46] {Threei}  let's trail to .34
01[09:46] {Threei}  1:1
01[09:46] {Threei}  from here by the book
[09:47] {thomcbell} FB 27.60 braek if holding 27.50
[09:47] {dino} jwn hl l .37
01[09:47] {Threei}  let me repeat: frikin JPM
01[09:47] {Threei}  smelled this weakness early, drops now despite market strength
[09:48] {thomcbell} FB 1:1 for half a second 
01[09:49] {Threei}  SLW 1:2
[09:51] {thomcbell} FB stop is break even here 
01[09:52] {Threei}  out last piece on a trail
[09:52] {thomcbell} i managed to sell 1/2 at 1:1
01[09:52] {Threei}  keep ana eye on HPQ for pullback entry
[09:52] {robbers} Thanks, slw.
01[09:52] {Threei}  yw
01[09:52] {Threei}  ideally from under 14.20
[09:53] {thomcbell} long setup AIG 33.52 break if holding 33.42
01[09:53] {Threei}  Icahn rumor
[09:53] {nemo} gmcr
01[09:53] {Threei}  (US) Staff meetings yesterday following President Obama and House Speaker Boehner discussions said to have yielded no progress - financial press
[09:54] {patel} missed MCP 
01[09:54] {Threei}  (US) US Sep SNAP (food stamps) participation: 47.7M people (record high) v 47.1M prior- update
01[09:54] {Threei}  - Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) accounted for 14% of US retail grocery store sales in the month
01[09:54] {Threei}  - Average benefit per person: $134.29
01[09:54] {Threei}  - Average benefit per household: $278.89
[09:55] {dino} obummers legacy
01[09:56] {Threei}  and it's going to get worse before it gets better I suspect - approval rating isd at 58%, new post-election high
01[09:56] {Threei}  people have spoken
[09:56] {nemo} election honeymoon, plus there is no longer a candidate to contrast
[09:57] {Beau} nemo, gonna watch the pats tonight?
01[09:57] {Threei}  nemo the optimist... who knew...
[09:57] {nemo} ?
01[09:57] {Threei}  come on HPQ, dive
[09:57] {ese} out full geo .51 +.17 
[09:57] {ese} L nuan .01
[09:58] {thomcbell} FCX looking for a long set up to surface - that was a nice thrust off the low 
[09:58] {Beau} thought you were a new england fan
[09:58] {nemo} ?
01[09:59] {Threei}  FCX, pullback under .60 will give you nice double bottom setup
[09:59] {nemo} oh, yeah, I live 20 min. from the stadium
[09:59] {Beau} going?
01[09:59] {Threei}  may have to be quick on recross
[10:00] {nemo} no...I don't like going to games.  I used to work on the field
01[10:00] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .60 break
[10:01] {thomcbell} AIG 1:1
01[10:01] {Threei}  If holds  .50 
[10:01] {nemo} spy continues to hold trend line upward from the beginning of the month
[10:01] {ese} nuan......do it!
[10:02] {ese} no wait.......dont do that
01[10:02] {Threei}  huh... no go FCX
[10:04] {thomcbell} sold another 1/4 aig 33.70 stop 
[10:04] {ese} yes....do that
[10:04] {nemo} fcx here
[10:04] {thomcbell} Flat AIG 33.65
[10:07] {nemo} grind up day
[10:07] {patel} VRSN 37 break thoughts
01[10:08] {Threei}  too far from current price to tell without seeing how it gets there
[10:12] {nemo} mcp breakout anybody?
[10:12] {thomcbell} fcx 31.51 break if holding 31.38 
01[10:13] {Threei} Long Setup:  GLD  160 break
01[10:13] {Threei}  If holds  .90 
[10:14] {thomcbell} target is 1:3 on FCX - which is the pivot 
01[10:14] {Threei}  if GLD invalidates, let's watch for .90 break entry
[10:17] {Will49} short entry?
[10:17] {dino} fds sm s .10
01[10:17] {Threei}  no
01[10:17] {Threei}  long
[10:17] {Will49} tks
[10:21] {dino} bke drop
01[10:21] {Threei} Long Setup:  GLD  .90 break
01[10:21] {Threei}  If holds  .80 
[10:21] {dino} infi spike
01[10:23] {Threei}  nice one FCX
[10:23] {thomcbell} FCX 1:1
[10:23] {thomcbell} trying to hold the rest with a trail 
[10:24] {thomcbell} 1:2
01[10:24] {Threei}  wtg
[10:24] {thomcbell} 1:3
[10:25] {patel} awesome Tbell!!
01[10:25] {Threei}  GLD half out
[10:25] {Will49} nice
01[10:25] {Threei}  1:1
[10:25] {thomcbell} 1/4 remaining - 31.60 stop 
01[10:25] {Threei}  ahh, FCX had news
01[10:25] {Threei}  just in time :)
01[10:26] {Threei}  luck favors prepared mind!
01[10:26] {Threei}  FCX Hearing chatter Arcelor Mittal could take a stake in the company
[10:26] {thomcbell} lol
01[10:26] {Threei}  10:24, perfgect timing
01[10:27] {Threei}  this is high class trading tbell p chart is right, and trading gods look favorably at the one who trades right, sending such gift :)
[10:29] {thomcbell} thanks Vad 
01[10:29] {Threei}  don't view it as random and pure luck
01[10:30] {Threei}  my experience is, the better you trade the more you get this kind of external help
[10:30] {thomcbell} raising stop to 31.68 on fcx
01[10:30] {Threei}  as if universe aligns to help you when you do things right
[10:30] {nemo} gmcr C&H
[10:31] {dino} fds stop 
[10:31] {thomcbell} out fcx
[10:31] {nemo} sell the news
[10:40] {patel} kicking myself over MCP... I have been watching this stock since Friday. I even had 9.06 as my target but it popped right away. 
[10:42] {dino} tbell, some people create their own luck
[10:42] {dino} six hl l .00
[10:42] {thomcbell} i totally agree Vad 
[10:47] {scottie} out +.18 tks Vad
01[10:47] {Threei}  1:2
01[10:47] {Threei}  yw
01[10:47] {Threei}  allow me once again to profess love for aggressive entries
[10:54] {dino} 07 green
[10:57] {robbers} Out GLD, thanks.
[10:58] {thomcbell} nice looking cup forming on the 1 min on FCX 
01[10:58] {Threei}  :)
[11:02] {nemo} boy if they ever make progress on the FC we'll be at new yearly highs in an instant.  No selling at all across the indexes
[11:04] {thomcbell} FCX pattern failure - 
[11:06] {nemo} http://www.businessinsider.com/scott-mead-photography-2012-12#dancing-trees-1975-6
[11:08] {scottie} cmcsk l .30 if holds .25 ?
01[11:18] {Threei}  sorry scottie, missed the question
[11:18] {scottie} in .31, not looking good
01[11:18] {Threei}  at you in?
01[11:18] {Threei}  ok
01[11:18] {Threei}  I'd keep .24 stop
[11:19] {scottie} out
[11:21] {dino} jw/a hl l .96
[11:21] {dino} eqt hl l .04
01[11:31] {Threei}  wow... market stopped
[11:31] {thomcbell} FB 27.88 break if holding 27.80
[11:36] {dino} out six -.06
[11:36] {dino} gco hl l .39 gappy
[11:45] {nemo} finnies new high, should take the indexes with it
[11:51] {thomcbell} im tightening stop on FB to 27.84 - im losing confidence in the play 
[11:53] {dino} out eqt .38 ave +.34
[11:55] {Will49} good one dino
[11:55] {Will49} in a slow market
[11:55] {dino} ty
[11:56] {dino} really slow market, not finding much
[11:56] {Will49} is it waiting for news?
[11:57] {dino} no idea. just seems that every month volume dries up a bit more
01[11:57] {Threei}  will, seems to me market is totally driven by the developments in that diotic fiscal cliff negotiations
01[11:58] {Threei}  no fresh heandlines, things are dead since no one wants to commit
01[11:58] {Threei}  finers are on the buttons to react quickly if news comes
[11:59] {Will49} tks guys
[12:02] {dino} finers?
[12:05] {dptl} good morning all
06[12:05] * nemo faints
01[12:05] {Threei}  dp!
[12:05] {dino} good afternoon dp
[12:07] {dptl} how's everything?
[12:07] {robbers} DP, cool, welcome back!!
01[12:08] {Threei}  last week was beautiful
01[12:08] {Threei}  this one starts slow
[12:08] {dptl} cc_8 ..dcc please
[12:09] {cc_8} hi ok
01[12:10] {Threei}  (ID) 7.4 magnitude earthquake is said to have occurred offshore Indonesia, no Tsunami threat in Indian ocean
01[12:10] {Threei}  (US) House Speaker Boehner Aide: The speaker is waiting for a new fiscal cliff proposal from President Obama- Reiterates that Boehner's offer from last week remains the GOP's main offer. - Talks with the White House are taking place - Follow up: White House indicates that the lines of communication remain open, optimistic sides can reach an agreeement
01[12:19] {Threei}  (US) Group of Democratic Senators said to be pushing for delay of Obamacare medical device tax
[12:27] {Will49} hey dp good to see you back
[12:27] {dptl} hey Will :)
01[12:27] {Threei}  dp, ese disconnected before you came in, and AI think he did it for a reason - he went to hide the girsl
01[12:27] {Threei}  girls
[12:28] {dptl} lol sure.... damn musicians :)
[12:35] {scottie} MPC s .00 if holds .10 ?
01[12:37] {Threei}  yesm hl
01[12:37] {Threei}  can be fast
[12:37] {scottie} tks
01[12:44] {Threei}  with any help it has nice potential to 1:3 - 1:4
[12:45] {nemo} one could argue indexes setting up long again soon
01[12:46] {Threei}  if SPY loses .60, one would be wrong
[12:47] {nemo} yeah, then support is around .50ish
01[12:47] {Threei}  but one can always drink oneself into oblivion and forget about it
[12:47] {Will49} thinkin' bout that
[12:47] {dino} no kidding, this is slower than friday afternoon
01[12:47] {Threei}  one also must invite me to keep company
[12:47] {Will49} :)
[12:48] {scottie} in .99
01[12:50] {Threei}  here comes one's coveted selling
[12:51] {Will49} you're really into coveting this morning Vad
01[12:52] {Threei}  I am?
[12:53] {Will49} yes, you coveted aggressive entires earlier
[12:53] {Will49} entries
01[12:53] {Threei}  ahhh
[12:54] {Will49} make sure you don't covet your neighbour's wife :)
01[12:54] {Threei}  never
01[12:54] {Threei}  his shoulders wider than my house
[12:55] {Will49} the husband you mean
[12:55] {dptl} lol
[12:55] {Will49} not wider than an AK47 however
[13:02] {scottie} stop .01
[13:02] {scottie} half out
01[13:03] {Threei}  1:1
[13:06] {scottie} 1/4 more out, stop .91
01[13:06] {Threei}  1:2 baby
01[13:07] {Threei}  I am going for 1:4
[13:07] {Will49} tks scottie
[13:07] {robbers} out MPC, thanks Scottie.
[13:07] {scottie} yw
[13:08] {scottie} 1:3 out
[13:08] {patel} great job scottie
[13:08] {Will49} good patience scottie
[13:08] {nemo} finnies barely dropped
[13:08] {scottie} tks
[13:09] {Will49} don't look at it scottie :)
[13:09] {robbers} You can look, just don't covet.
[13:09] {scottie} lol
[13:09] {Will49} :)
01[13:12] {Threei}  on its course to becoming word of the day I see :)
01[13:12] {Threei}  hmmm... why do I find this tstrange:
01[13:12] {Threei}  (CO) IMF's Lagarde: Worldwide economy not as strong as Colombia's
01[13:12] {Threei}  huh?
[13:14] {scottie} We should all start growing coca then
[13:17] {Will49} We have crop in BC that's just as good and doesn't need warm weather :)
[13:17] {Will49} BRITISH Columbia that is
[13:17] {scottie} :)
[13:18] {Will49} that's what I've heard anyway
[13:21] {robbers} And you heard it via what media, a smoke signal?
01[13:21] {Threei}  lol
01[13:22] {Threei}  my latest shedever
01[13:22] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/3QA0m
[13:23] {Will49} it's a great "reflection" of your talents
01[13:23] {Threei}  no smoke involved
[13:23] {Will49} good one robbers
[13:33] {nemo} ok long here looks good
[13:36] {dino} rgr drop
[13:36] {scottie} stx l .80 if holds .75 ?
[13:36] {dino} rgr hl l .03
01[13:37] {Threei}  can't tell scottie
01[13:37] {Threei}  not sure
[13:37] {scottie} ok
[13:41] {thomcbell} FB - i cant resist - 27.95 break if holding 27.85
[13:42] {thomcbell} "they" are going to try to gun this thing 
[13:43] {thomcbell} some decent size offers at 28 it loks like but this is a nice pattern 
[13:47] {scottie} SNY l .30 ?
[13:49] {thomcbell} FB 1:1
01[13:49] {Threei}  wtg
[13:49] {scottie} good call FB tbell
01[13:49] {Threei}  SNY, probably
[13:50] {scottie} stop .24?
01[13:50] {Threei}  yeah
01[13:53] {Threei}  beauty FB
[13:54] {nemo} gmcr
[13:56] {thomcbell} thanks guys
[13:56] {Will49} you da man
[13:59] {robbers} wtg.
01[14:03] {Threei}  NYSE volume 290M shares, about 16% below its three-month average;. - NASDAQ volume 920M shares, about 15% below its three-month average
[14:08] {dino} pitiful
[14:10] {thomcbell} fcx 32 break i holding 31.90 
[14:11] {thomcbell} sorry i was late  typing 
[14:11] {thomcbell} it looks to good to be true  Vad - 
[14:11] {thomcbell} too obvious
01[14:13] {Threei}  still looks this way to me :)
[14:15] {nemo} looking for finnies to bounce in next few cents
[14:25] {thomcbell} im playing FCX by the book due to market hesitation but otherwise this would not be a scalp for me 
[14:27] {thomcbell} fcx 1:1
[14:27] {thomcbell} stop to break even
[14:31] {thomcbell} SPLK looks very vulnerable on the daily and hourly charts here 
[14:35] {thomcbell} raising stop to 32.04 on FCX 
[14:39] {nemo} How's ur chin vad?
01[14:39] {Threei}  bruised
[14:39] {thomcbell} fcx out 32.04
[14:39] {nemo} srpt
01[14:40] {Threei}  bless you
[14:40] {nemo} oops
01[14:48] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .75 break
01[14:48] {Threei}  If holds  .80 
[14:51] {nemo} tna worth a try here
[14:56] {patel} how deos NTES look
[14:56] {patel} 37.30 with stop of 37.40
01[15:00] {Threei}  half lot
[15:02] {patel} 1:1
01[15:03] {Threei}  nice setup
[15:03] {dino} out rgr .40, +.37
01[15:03] {Threei}  wtg
[15:04] {dino} ty
01[15:04] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .05 break
01[15:04] {Threei}  If holds  .15 
[15:12] {nemo} fcx ;ppls ;pmg
[15:12] {nemo} right looks long
01[15:13] {Threei}  probably two-sided...
[15:15] {patel} NTES 1:2 out
[15:16] {robbers} good call, Patel
[15:16] {patel} whoa
[15:16] {patel} what happen to NTES 
[15:16] {patel} bid was higher than ask for a second there
[15:17] {patel} glad I got out at the rigth time
01[15:24] {Threei}  Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp. Suspended plans to invest additional �30B by 2015 to increase production of lithium ion battery materials - Nikkei News- Report noting the company anticipated rising demand for the materials uses in electric vehicles, but demand for EVs appear to be slow.
01[15:25] {Threei}  if that was goverment it would push forward anyway, resulting in another loss for taxpayers
[15:27] {scottie} aet l .80 ?
01[15:27] {Threei}  not delighted
[15:27] {scottie} ok
01[15:27] {Threei}  can turn double top just as easy
01[15:27] {Threei}  50/50
[15:28] {nemo} time for spy to piss me off and make a run north
[15:28] {nemo} crissakes iwm chart starts to look like a rebate trader
[15:29] {nemo} yeah, indexes will finish on the highs
01[15:37] {Threei}  OK, we need the conflicting headlines to start flying again
01[15:37] {Threei}  otherwise spooked market won't move, like a deer in headlights
[15:38] {nemo} any economic news tomorrow?
01[15:39] {Threei}  major, no
01[15:39] {Threei}  among numbers, IBT/TIPP economic optimism
01[15:39] {Threei}  NFIB Optimism (small business)
01[15:40] {Threei}  that's about it
[15:40] {nemo} o.k. so it'll be headline driven 
01[15:40] {Threei}  FOMC on Wed
01[15:40] {Threei}  and bidget statement
01[15:40] {Threei}  budget
[15:41] {nemo} Gromyko
01[15:41] {Threei}  and Ben's press-focnference
01[15:41] {Threei}  lol
[15:41] {nemo} he and Brezhnev were the two big soviet names in the 70's
01[15:42] {Threei}  dp... see how nemo advances?
[15:42] {nemo} ?
01[15:42] {Threei}  just so you know, today he also learned the word "pizdets"
[15:42] {nemo} probably heard it before but confused it with "pisdah"
[15:42] {dptl} roflol
01[15:43] {Threei}  1. Describes a kaput situation, one at which fubar is nothing compared to how the situation really is. Can also describe situations of otter stupidity expressed by someone, as well as an obviously bad mental state.
[15:44] {dptl} there is a big diference between thouse two words Nemo ...lol
01[15:45] {Threei}  volume ends 17 and 14% below 3 month average
01[15:45] {Threei}  for NYSE and NASDAQ respectively
[15:45] {nemo} I know dp
[15:46] {nemo} However, pisdahs are pisdetz
[15:46] {nemo} in general
[15:46] {nemo} kinda' like one is a subset of the other
01[15:48] {Threei}  AET did form double top
01[15:48] {Threei}  not enough to short it but just enough to kill long
[15:48] {scottie} yes, you were right
01[15:49] {Threei}  hold on, I'll copy this and send to my wife
01[15:49] {Threei}  "see? sometimes I am!!"
[15:49] {scottie} lol
01[15:50] {Threei}  if we weren't this close to eod, I'd be intereasted in SLW .60 short
01[15:55] {Threei}  OK guys, thank you all
[15:55] {Will49} cheers guys
01[15:55] {Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow
[15:55] {patel} take acer
[15:55] {patel} care
[15:55] {thomcbell} later all
[15:55] {dptl} gn
[15:56] {scottie} gn see you all tomorrow



Saturday, December 8, 2012

Nemo's Findings week of 12/09/2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html

Wish I had a clock widget for a countdown to the Mayan thingy....anyway, the week that was:







   








 







I've  again showed the published economic news below the data for that day so you can see how the price action reacted to the news, and of course we have the whole week data for the last chart graphic.  Notice how financials and spy have been holding a consistent trendline since the bottom on Wednesday morning.  Notice how IWM has been steadily wedging upward.  Notice how Bonds (TLT) are looking weak as if they are going to continue to drop.  The dollar has been gaining and losing strength with seemingly little, if not less effect on the moves of the market.  Frankly, it would seem, all this market needs is actual substantive progress on the "FC" talks and the market will move substantively higher.

 

The week that is:


 As we can see, very tight band on IWM with volume-at-price resistance in the $83.75 area.

 

  Hard to tell what goes here because aapl is 13% of the index.  Go compare the charts of aapl and QQQ.  As goes apple so go the Qs...for now anyway.

 

 SPY has volume resistance in the 143.50 area and then the 144.30 area

 

 As we can see, the finnies are pushing upward into volume resistance in 114 area.

 

And my, don't bonds look weak.  Will the 50 SMA provide support?


Notice the dollar has been strengthening with the market either moving upward or remaining fairly flat.  Now the norm has been a negative correlation.  Is this a new relationship dynamic or just a temporary aberration?  Well, my commentary has hinted at the positive, but this of course could go south, but I would expect the 200SMA on the spy to be a relative magnet.  It is relatively close by on many of the indexes.



Friday, December 7, 2012

Market Week Wrap-Up

Fiscal Cliff Stalemate Stalls Markets


- Markets saw volatile trading this week as investors worked to keep ahead of the Greek debt buyback, the US weekly payrolls and the ongoing fiscal cliff negotiations. All indications are that the Eurozone managed to successfully pull off the latest Greece debt swap, greatly calming the euro crisis for the moment. Attention has shifted squarely onto the US fiscal cliff, although there was virtually no movement toward a resolution of the issue. The Republicans made a counter offer to the administration, including $1.4T in spending cuts and $800B in new revenue (obtained by closing tax loopholes, with no tax hikes), which was rejected out of hand by President Obama. The administration reiterated that tax hikes on those making more than $250K are a non-negotiable part of the deal, and it looks more and more likely that the issue will not be resolved before the end of the year. In the meantime, approximately 50 public companies launched special dividends payable in the month of December, designed to avoid higher taxes in the 2013 period. On Friday, the November jobs report was better than expected, but still not really strong enough. In other US data points, the November ISM Manufacturing index fell below 50, to its lowest level since July 2009, and the preliminary December University of Michigan confidence reading fell sharply below the final November figure. For the week, the DJIA rose 1.0%, the S&P500 gained 0.1%, while renewed selling pressure in shares of Apple helped push the Nasdaq down 1.1%.

- The mixed results seen in the November US jobs data provoked lots of commentary on Friday morning. Non-farm payrolls were +146K, well above expectations of +85K. Despite the beat, the figure is still nowhere near the +200K figure needed for a real jobs recovery. In addition, the October number was revised downward by 49K. The BLS claimed that Sandy had no significant impact on payrolls, although many analysts say that the storm probably slowed hiring in the month. The unemployment rate dropped to 7.7%, however analysts point out this was almost entirely due to discouraged workers dropping out of the labor pool. Other analysts commented that this unexpected drop in the unemployment rate may give the Fed some pause as it considers linking policy action to employment thresholds at next week's FOMC meeting.

- The BoE and ECB rate decisions on Thursday proceeded exactly as expected, with both central banks leaving key rates unchanged. At the ECB press conference, Mario Draghi said that there had been "wide discussion" about whether to cut or keep rates steady, including talk about negative interest rates (Draghi said the ECB is "technically prepared" for negative rates). On Friday, press articles asserted that a majority of the ECB council are now said to support a rate cut and the UK Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard wrote that several ECB members pushed for a rate cut at Thursday's meeting. Council members Draghi, Weidmann, Coeure and Asmussen are said to have successfully argued against a cut at the meeting.

- Shares of Apple lost approximately 10% of their value this week. The company's shares slid 6% on Wednesday alone, for their biggest one-day drop since 2008. There was no single catalyst for the decline and many analysts suggest that investors are liquidating holdings at year end, ahead of the fiscal cliff. There were also reports of one broker raising margin requirements for its shares, plus some misinterpreted press reports about iPhone 5 sales in China and the firm's profit margins.

- US auto sales sustained a brisk pace in November, posting their best rate in four years. There was little sign that Hurricane Sandy put much of a dent at all in the monthly numbers. Ford's sales were up 6% y/y and its F-series pick up truck sales grew a whopping 18%. Chrysler had its best November since 2007, extending its run of excellent numbers. GM's gains were a bit more tepid, up 3.4% y/y.

- Shares of Citigroup gained 8% this week after launching a big new strategic repositioning. New CEO Corbat is clearly looking to put his stamp on the firm, and the new plan cuts 11,000 jobs, reduces various overseas activities and cuts costs. There would also be a pretax charge of roughly $1 billion in Q4.

- Starbucks discussed its plans to open 3,000 net new stores through 2014, and almost doubling its international footprint through 2015. Shares of Teavana surged after Starbucks recommitted to its plan to buy the company, after several days of negative stories about its products.

- On the M&A front, the big story of the week was Freeport-McMoRan's plan to buy Plains Exploration and McMoRan Exploration for $9 billion in cash and stock, as the firm makes a big push into the energy sector. Investors do not like the deal one bit, as shares of FCX are down 18% this week. The deal would reunite the two firms that formerly were known as Freeport-McMoRan Inc. In other deal news, Canadian dairy products firm Saputo agreed to buy Dean Foods's Morningstar division for $1.45B. Baxter said it would acquire privately-held Swedish dialysis product company Gambro AB for about $4 billion to complement its kidney therapy portfolio.

- EUR/USD made another run up to the 1.3130-1.3170 resistance band it has probed twice already this fall. The pair hit six-week highs around 1.3126 on Wednesday, before dropping as low as 1.2880 on Friday. The euro sustained gains in the first half of the week as it continued to bask in the rays of the successful Greek debt buyback. Note that the maximum price on Greece's bonds was pegged at 40.1% of the principal amount, better then the whisper number of 35% mentioned last week. Peripheral yields eased further, although there was some pressure after a Spanish auction missed issuance targets. In addition, there was turbulence in Rome as Berlusconi's PDL Party abstained from a confidence vote in the Monti government, suggesting his government could be forced to resign.

- EUR/CHF moved toward 1.2150 after Credit Suisse confirmed it would start applying negative credit rates on cash clearing accounts, effective Dec 10th. The concept of negative interest rates on Swiss deposits had been speculated for some time. In June, the Danish Central Bank established negative rates for all depositors, and back in early October certain depositors received negative rates for deposits in CHF and DKK at State Street and Bank of NY Mellon. Recall that negative rates do not mean banks are charging for deposit accounts - the rates in the cases above are only for clearing accounts. EUR/CHF ended the week back below the 1.2090 level.

- The Japanese yen remained under pressure across the board, most notably hitting an eight-month low against AUD. Nikkei News reported the opposition LDP party, which is running on a platform of expanded BOJ stimulus and a tougher stance with China, is expected to win more than half of the lower house's 480 seats in the Dec 16th elections. In China, the newly seated government got to work. Initial reports from Beijing suggest the new standing committee of the politburo will turn its focus to urbanization, potentially demanding more stimulative measures such as infrastructure spending.