Thursday, March 6, 2014

March 06 2014

The day started well, with 1:3 and 1:2 trades, then pattern of rinsing resumed. Ended negatively second day in the row, which is quite rare for us.

Session Time: Thu Mar 06 00:00:00 2014
[09:01] {dino} gm
[09:01] {fish_49} gm Dino  GM  all
[09:01] {RonS} ford all
01[09:01] {@Threei}  dino, fish, ron :)
01[09:01] {@Threei}  and lol
[09:04] {nemo} anybody else having problems connecting with DAS
[09:15] {mojo1} gd morning
01[09:15] {@Threei}  mojo :)
[09:18] {goinshort} gm  all
01[09:18] {@Threei}  gs :)
[09:21] {munky} morning btw
[09:21] {fish_49} same here
[09:21] {fish_49} gm Munky
[09:21] {nemo} yep...
[09:21] {munky} oh, hi fish
01[09:21] {@Threei}  munky :)
[09:25] {ese} gm
01[09:25] {@Threei}  ese :)
[09:26] {nemo} hey ese
[09:26] {ese} hey nemo
[09:26] {ese} vad
[09:28] {nemo} well, guess I'll be writing for a while this morning
[09:28] {RonS} ese:  pic.twitter.com/tZSAH4TWGK
[09:28] {ese} how do I access that Ron
[09:29] {nemo} copy paste ese
[09:29] {RonS} copy & paste?
[09:29] {ese} ok
[09:29] {munky} ok in now
[09:31] {ese} too funny
01[09:31] {@Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .70 break
01[09:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .65
01[09:34] {@Threei}  meh
[09:34] {munky} stopped
01[09:35] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .70 break hl
01[09:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[09:36] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:37] {dptl} good morning all
01[09:37] {@Threei}  dp
01[09:39] {@Threei} Long Setup:  EBAY  .05 break
[09:39] {munky} ty fb
01[09:40] {@Threei}  yw
[09:40] {munky} 1:2
01[09:40] {@Threei}  If holds  59
01[09:41] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:42] {@Threei}  .20 next dam
01[09:42] {@Threei}  broken
01[09:43] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:43] {@Threei}  nice smooth ride
[09:44] {munky} pxlw news?
[09:44] {RonS} some deal w/ aapl
[09:44] {munky} ty
[09:45] {munky} its one for dino
01[09:45] {@Threei}  1:3  OUT
01[09:45] {@Threei}  Pixelworks Inc Reports Q4 $0.00 v $0.06e, R$15.0M v $15.0Me- CEO: We enter 2014 with significant traction on a number of exciting growth opportunities driven by strong product momentum, including the ramping of our product created as part of a co-development agreement, further monetization of our valuable technology portfolio, as well as the formal introduction of our technology into the mobile market.
[09:46] {dino} apple relationship, pxlw
[09:48] {dino} pxlw smr s .07
01[09:51] {@Threei}  FB not finding firm footing
[09:52] {munky} fb pivot 71.05
[09:52] {munky} fb s1 70.13
01[09:52] {@Threei}  eeck
01[09:52] {@Threei}  another one bitten by nemo
[09:52] {nemo} jobs report Thursday
[09:52] {RonS} $P In the release, Pandora said it "intends to discontinue its monthly disclosure of key audience metrics.
[09:52] {munky} u never know with this animal
01[09:53] {@Threei}  probably because it's too good Ron
[09:53] {RonS} hehe
01[09:53] {@Threei}  they don't want others to get jealous
[09:53] {fish_49} what is s1 Munky?
[09:53] {ese} frickin basements got water in now from all the flippin rain we've been having......i'm toast for the day cya tomorrow
[09:53] {munky} vad, is that an eeck like geek or eeck like peck?
01[09:54] {@Threei}  wow ese
01[09:54] {@Threei}  good thig I have no basement
[09:54] {dino} cya
[09:54] {munky} seriously fish?
[09:54] {dino} i trade from basement office
01[09:54] {@Threei}  how do I know munky... I barely know how to type things, let alone how to pronounce them
[09:55] {munky} lol
[09:55] {munky} just wanted proper sound effect vad
[09:55] {nemo} squeal like a pig
[09:56] {nemo} you got purdy lips
01[09:56] {@Threei}  grrr
01[09:57] {@Threei}  looking fir short setup on FB, can't find an entry
[09:57] {fish_49} Yea  I was serious Munky  but  now I see you typed  S1 as in Pivot  I thought  you were taking it short there  sorry for the confusion
[09:57] {munky} no prob
[09:58] {dino} cov pxlw .97, +.10, entry off
[09:58] {fish_49} Nice rally this am  Putin cover his short?
[09:59] {RonS} must have since heard he changed his name from putin to callin...
[09:59] {fish_49} covered calls?
[09:59] {fish_49} lol
01[09:59] {@Threei}  lol
[09:59] {nemo} p
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) JAN FACTORY ORDERS: -0.7% V -0.5%E
[10:00] {nemo} they'll shrug that off
[10:01] {fish_49} I'm not sure if true or not but I was looking at a pic on the web this a.m of him acting as a tourist while standing next to Ronnie Reagan
01[10:03] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .25 break
01[10:03] {@Threei}  If holds  .15
01[10:03] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:04] {@Threei}  here comes second stage of Crimea annexation plan
01[10:04] {@Threei}  parliament voted for joining Russia and set referendum for March 16
01[10:04] {@Threei}  1:2
[10:05] {munky} ty got .1:2
[10:05] {munky} 0ut
01[10:05] {@Threei}  :)
[10:05] {munky} .45
[10:06] {_illyakuryakin} isn't that the day after the Ides?
[10:07] {nemo} et tu?
01[10:07] {@Threei}  yes... but I don't exopect more than 3 persons in the whole Crimea to even get the reference
[10:07] {_illyakuryakin} that too
01[10:07] {@Threei}  let alone the implications
[10:07] {munky} vad, normally i'd let u go home now, but because of yesterday u can not lol
[10:07] {fish_49} why wait until the 16th?
01[10:08] {@Threei}  I don't even ask munky...
01[10:08] {@Threei}  that's how profoundly I realize my fault
[10:08] {_illyakuryakin} better for revenues, fish
01[10:08] {@Threei}  normaly I'd ask after 1:3 on EBAY
[10:09] {munky} and normally id allow it lol
[10:10] {nemo} munky's magnanimity
[10:11] {dino} bita smr l .70
[10:13] {nemo} vxx could be interesting a little later...setting up for the jobs report we might see some buying..if we don't see buying, market likely expects job report to be neutral to positive
[10:17] {dino} out bita .30, +.60
[10:17] {RonS} gj
[10:17] {dino} ty
[10:17] {munky} make the call cap'n
[10:18] {RonS} bita & swallowed...
[10:18] {thomcbell} gm
01[10:18] {@Threei}  thom
[10:18] {munky} hey thom
[10:18] {fish_49} I was watching from the sideline.  Need big  stop for that one.  When mentioned at .70  I pulled up and already at .50  area  lol
[10:20] {munky} vad, when u trade dinos pix how many shares u do?
[10:21] {dino} he doesn't
[10:21] {dino} bita smr l .38 ave
[10:22] {nemo} munky, vad is a sadist, not a masochist
[10:23] {dino} bita stop .10, -.28
[10:24] {dino} rinsed
[10:24] {fish_49} Bita Bit you that time?
[10:26] {dino} reload .30
01[10:27] {@Threei}  l twtr .70 break sm
01[10:27] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .70 break sm
01[10:27] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[10:31] {@Threei}  nah
[10:32] {munky} stopped
[10:32] {munky} vad giveth vad taketh away
01[10:32] {@Threei}  vad stops making calls then
01[10:33] {@Threei}  stopeth I mean
01[10:33] {@Threei}  small shares, sheesh
[10:37] {fish_49} it's setting up short now  with 10 cent risk
[10:37] {munky} am i in room? was dropped
[10:38] {mojo1} back
[10:38] {munky} some tech issues this morn here
[10:42] {munky} cat strong
[10:42] {dino} out bita .08, +.78
[10:42] {dino} hmmm
[10:43] {fish_49} out too early?
[10:43] {dino} yes
[10:44] {fish_49} looks like could see .80
[10:44] {dino} most likely go positive, good report
[10:44] {fish_49} 50 SMA around .63
[10:44] {dino} pulls back hard tho
[10:45] {thomcbell} which are u talking about dino?
[10:45] {dino} teleport
[10:45] {dino} bita
[10:45] {munky} news bidu?
[10:45] {munky} up 9
[10:46] {dino} bita
[10:46] {nemo} china companies having good earnings reports and Chinese gov't doing there own QE
[10:46] {RonS} agree
[10:48] {dino} vjet drop
01[10:49] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .80 break
01[10:49] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[10:51] {@Threei}  now, this is the friendly face you want to see on the neigbor across the street: http://www.kyivpost.com/media/images/2014/03/02/p18i02hnlk9t5p96gp81i71b7o4/big.jpg
01[10:52] {@Threei}  stop .74
01[10:55] {@Threei}  meh
[11:01] {fish_49} wmt forming C&H on 3 min
01[11:03] {@Threei}  somg
[11:04] {fish_49} or SOMH
[11:04] {fish_49} Son of Male Horse
[11:09] {thomcbell} wow vwap bounce on bita
01[11:10] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .20 break
01[11:10] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[11:16] {@Threei}  nervous trade
[11:17] {fish_49} i didnt fill
[11:17] {munky} held by tooth
01[11:17] {@Threei}  hmm?
01[11:17] {@Threei}  why not?
[11:17] {munky} saw .30 but my stop was .31
01[11:17] {@Threei}  it's not like it didn't give enough time
01[11:17] {@Threei}  yes
[11:17] {munky} i meant it didnt stop
[11:18] {fish_49} not sure  hit  the sell button at first print of .19  for .18  got 0 shares
[11:19] {fish_49} too late?
01[11:19] {@Threei}  it touched 1 cent from 1;1
01[11:20] {@Threei}  I wouldn't enter it now as secondary
[11:20] {fish_49} I'll sit it out
01[11:20] {@Threei}  and trailing stop to .26
[11:20] {fish_49} munky  how many shares did you get and what fill price?
[11:21] {nemo} lulu may be short here seller at .25, break of .20, time of day becoming an issue
[11:23] {munky} 400 fish
[11:23] {munky} .21
[11:24] {fish_49} I thought so
01[11:24] {@Threei}  out
01[11:24] {@Threei}  should have taken .11
[11:25] {fish_49} Nemo  that big Ask at .25 comes and goes
[11:27] {dino} stx drop
[11:28] {munky} stopped btw
[11:28] {munky} fish
[11:28] {fish_49} sorry
[11:29] {munky} i think the mkts been very hard yesterday and today
[11:29] {nemo} monday and tuesday also because of the gaps
[11:29] {dino} stx smr l .20
[11:29] {nemo} stx is the number 1 weak on the algo dino
[11:35] {dino} meaning?
[11:35] {nemo} there's alot of downward pressure on it
[11:35] {dino} ok
[11:35] {nemo} I'll let you know if it starts to shut off
[11:36] {dino} i'll just have to buy a substantial amount more then
[11:36] {nemo} or partial
[11:36] {dino} joking
[11:38] {fish_49} LULU Classical DBI
[11:38] {dino} pxlw hod
01[11:38] {@Threei}  looking at LULU as well
01[11:39] {@Threei} Short Setup: LULU  .15 break
[11:39] {fish_49}  break of .15 with stop of .26?  or you
01[11:39] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
[11:39] {fish_49} no need to finish my question  lol
01[11:39] {@Threei}  :)
[11:39] {nemo} btw, Fish, when you see the big ask come and go, and price doesn't move up to challenge it, it means there is no buying pressure
[11:39] {fish_49} thanks Nemo
[11:40] {nemo} it's the mole that pops it's head up but nobody wants to whack it
[11:40] {dino} lol
[11:41] {dino} stx .40 wall
01[11:41] {@Threei}  because it has AK-47 in its hands
01[11:41] {@Threei}  and that friendly smile
[11:42] {fish_49} only got 300 shares  waaa
[11:42] {nemo} lulu worked
[11:42] {nemo} shoulda' shorted at .20 fish
[11:43] {fish_49} yea perhaps
[11:43] {fish_49} the risk was small
[11:43] {nemo} yeah, with that seller at .25
[11:44] {nemo} probably not gonna' 'get any biggies today, or at least not until a little later
[11:44] {nemo} stx
[11:44] {nemo} sorry
[11:44] {thomcbell} dang looks like a 17.78 short break if holding 17.90
[11:44] {nemo} that's vwap
[11:44] {thomcbell} i know
[11:44] {thomcbell} looking to short a bounce to 18.20 or so
[11:44] {nemo} and the area of yesterday's close
01[11:47] {@Threei}  frikin FB
01[11:47] {@Threei}  now it works
[11:47] {munky} yea, ur ideas are correct,alot of rinses boss
01[11:48] {@Threei}  irritating
[11:48] {munky} i got 100 .05 lulu
[11:48] {fish_49} FB on my NTL   for awhile  NTL is code for No Trade List
[11:48] {munky} partialed
[11:48] {munky} wanted more out
01[11:49] {@Threei}  trail balance to .21
[11:50] {munky} did u get half out?
[11:50] {munky} i only caufght 100 of 500
01[11:50] {@Threei}  no
[11:50] {munky} ok
[11:50] {munky} u just tightening up
[11:50] {munky} ok
01[11:51] {@Threei}  thought of doing .06 but I think a bit too slow today
[11:54] {thomcbell} great call on bita
[11:54] {thomcbell} absolutely great
[11:55] {nemo} sbux could be a short here
[11:56] {nemo} eh, indexes look like setting up for a stealth breakout
[11:57] {nemo} stx strengthening a tad dino
[11:57] {dino} ty
[12:01] {dino} wwe spike
[12:02] {nemo} cam seller at .84
[12:02] {nemo} .82 actually
[12:08] {dino} bita going to flat, sheesh, called it but sold it way early
[12:11] {fish_49} .84 looks like a struggle for bita
[12:13] {fish_49} took it out
[12:21] {dino} wwe crazy
[12:24] {dino} stx stop is .99, brb
[12:30] {dino} stopped
[12:31] {fish_49} bita  starting to look short below 44
[12:31] {fish_49} ooops  spoke too soon there is the bounce  lol
[12:38] {dino} vrx drop
[12:48] {dino} rtrx spike
[12:49] {dino} vsm l vrx .17
[12:50] {RonS} celg pressure
01[12:51] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .90 break
01[12:51] {@Threei}  If holds  71
01[12:52] {@Threei}  change to 71 break
01[12:52] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
01[12:54] {@Threei}  meh
[12:54] {fish_49} I lied  I traded it
[12:55] {fish_49} waaa It's really on my Do not trade list now
01[12:55] {@Threei}  it brough a lot of winning trades over last few months
01[12:56] {@Threei}  couple days it misbehaves, you drop it?
[12:56] {fish_49} until I got here
[12:56] {fish_49} lol
[12:56] {fish_49} I'm joking  I will take every call made
01[12:56] {@Threei}  and this is those same couple days whole market is jerky and patternless
[12:57] {dino} out vrx flat
[12:58] {dino} damn
[12:59] {fish_49} LULU 1:1
[13:01] {thomcbell} spwr looks like a 35.60 short break here
[13:01] {thomcbell} stocks are nuts intraday
[13:02] {dino} too fast to post, re-loaded .50 out .34, +.84 vrx
[13:04] {fish_49} 1 more tick LULU  t
[13:04] {nemo} stx turned off dino
[13:05] {RonS} celg on algo list?
[13:05] {fish_49} LULU 1:2  good call
[13:05] {nemo} yeah, full red on weak side
[13:07] {thomcbell} no go spwr
[13:08] {nemo} celg looks like bounce might be coming
[13:08] {RonS} away up up &
[13:14] {fish_49} Out LULU 1:3
[13:14] {fish_49} Thanks Toad
01[13:14] {@Threei}  wtg
[13:14] {nemo} ribbit
[13:14] {RonS} gj
01[13:14] {@Threei}  read this:
01[13:14] {@Threei}  - France President Hollande: Prep work for the June G8 summit is suspended as of now - If Russia does not engage in negotiations with Ukraine, EU will pursue travel bans, asset freezes and cancel G8 participation - If Russia does more to destabilize Ukraine, more measures will be taken - France wants to avoid suspending military contracts with Russia, will not stop sale of Mistral ships to Russia
01[13:14] {@Threei}  what an incredible hypocrisy
[13:15] {nemo} I'm sure Hollande is buying lube and kneepads
[13:15] {RonS} de Monet
[13:15] {dino} sell them the ships to fight us with
[13:15] {fish_49} We will sell you Weapons  but don't use them on Ukraine  Promise?
[13:15] {fish_49} Scouts Honor?
[13:16] {nemo} France needs the natural gas, despite how much Hollande spews
[13:17] {RonS} grow more garlic & onions?
[13:18] {_illyakuryakin} mushrooms
[13:18] {nemo} Psyllocibin?
01[13:18] {@Threei}  truffles
[13:18] {_illyakuryakin} all types
01[13:18] {@Threei}  searched for by pigs
[13:21] {dino} damn stx rinse
[13:21] {RonS} want celg around 158...might get there...many large cap bios under pressure...rotation...
[13:21] {dino} markets feeling heavy
01[13:27] {@Threei}  FAZ and TZA are supressed so heavily
01[13:27] {@Threei}  really would be nice to get serious market dcrop, these two would become real players
[13:28] {nemo} biotechs getting crushed
[13:31] {dino} wow pllw spike
[13:31] {munky} dino, symbol??
[13:31] {dino} pxlw, sorry
[13:32] {munky} pxlw
[13:32] {dino} yeah
[13:33] {munky} news?
[13:33] {RonS} jesus, you asked this morning and we answered...  :)
01[13:33] {@Threei}  lol
[13:34] {nemo} maybe he's Les
01[13:34] {@Threei}  earnings and some deal with AAPL
[13:34] {fish_49} I told y9ou yesterday He seems just like Les when Les started
[13:34] {dino} aapl news spiking it imo
[13:34] {dino} fish, nah, munky seems to trade better
[13:34] {fish_49} lol
[13:35] {munky} ty on news
[13:35] {munky} huh? fish u think i trade like les?
[13:35] {fish_49} not at all
01[13:35] {@Threei}  you guys know I copy it all in a separate file named "To show Les when he is back so he knows who mocked him the most, this missed him the most"?
[13:36] {munky} i really do not even know him
01[13:36] {@Threei}  this = thus
[13:36] {dino} would expect that
[13:36] {fish_49} Luv You Les
[13:36] {munky} has he been out since ive been in?
[13:36] {fish_49} even More than I luv Nemo
[13:37] {munky} there was someone really nailing it when i first started
01[13:37] {@Threei}  he is on and off with work schedule, munly, should be back in a month or two
[13:37] {munky} weird name like 0-99
[13:37] {nemo} they're transplanting an amoeba's brain into him...he's in recovery
[13:37] {dino} cc9
[13:38] {munky} who was the guy calling trasdes?_99 OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT?
[13:38] {fish_49} cc9 is the one that cloned the phrase BTFD  right?
[13:38] {munky} Sorry caps
[13:38] {dino} y
[13:38] {munky} oh, he was impressive
[13:38] {dino} y
[13:38] {munky} where'd he go???
01[13:38] {@Threei}  (UR) Dep Sec of State: US Govt is currently discussing how to handle US natural gas resources in a method pertaining the Ukraine crisis
01[13:38] {@Threei}  huh?
[13:39] {fish_49} he was a good trader  Just not much about support for DAS  lol
[13:39] {dino} i guess govt will "wish" it over to ukraine
01[13:39] {@Threei}  BTFD is years old internet meme
[13:39] {nemo} yeah, 2010
01[13:39] {@Threei}  there was a cartoon about it
[13:40] {nemo} youtube animation
[13:40] {fish_49} ahhh first time to hear it was when cc9 was frustrated one day
[13:40] {fish_49} Dino  you have any drilling up your way?
[13:40] {nemo} noob
[13:40] {fish_49} Perhaps more Nat Gas coming from PA
[13:40] {dino} i have leases in force with cchk, no wells yet
[13:41] {dino} chk
[13:42] {dino} they have been running new and much bigger pipelines though my area
[13:42] {dino} srne going for gap fill 12.50s
[13:45] {dino} damn missed srne gap fill entry
[13:45] {dino} too fast
01[13:46] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .40 break
01[13:46] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
[13:46] {nemo} fb
[13:47] {nemo} .80 bid fb
[13:47] {nemo} right through
[13:47] {nemo} she's going to 70
[13:49] {dino} tza l .70
[13:54] {thomcbell} dang was a better setup that last time it came down
01[13:54] {@Threei}  let's trail to .34
[13:54] {thomcbell} more of a shelf up at 18
01[13:55] {@Threei}  half out
01[13:55] {@Threei}  1:1
[13:55] {fish_49} half out also  got .49
[13:56] {munky} out half here .51
01[13:56] {@Threei}  if we get full-blown panic I'll feel much better
01[13:56] {@Threei}  mostly because I enjoy panic
01[13:56] {@Threei}  and miss bear market greatly
01[13:57] {@Threei}  remember "don't panic" sign in Airplane... switching to "OK, panic"
01[13:58] {@Threei}  sheesh FB
[13:58] {munky} maybe we should just full out when mkts like this, only a question
01[13:59] {@Threei}  hard to tell...
[13:59] {munky} s1 fb i posted earlier
[13:59] {munky} 170.13
[13:59] {dino} rnet drop, hooker
[13:59] {munky} basically did it
[13:59] {munky} that was a point higher
[14:00] {munky} vxx rebounds
[14:00] {nemo} [13:46] {nemo} fb
[14:00] {nemo} [13:47] {nemo} .80 bid fb
[14:00] {nemo} [13:48] {nemo} right through
[14:00] {nemo} [13:48] {nemo} she's going to 70
[14:01] {nemo} ain't gonna' make 70 though
[14:01] {dino} tza stop .68 -.02
[14:02] {munky} nemo agree, close enough tho
01[14:03] {@Threei}  out on a trail
[14:05] {fish_49} out on trail ,39
[14:05] {munky} stopped .34
[14:05] {RonS} btw got +.13 vxx thanks 3i
[14:05] {fish_49} ty Vad
01[14:06] {@Threei}  yw
01[14:06] {@Threei}  why .34 munky?
01[14:06] {@Threei}  1:1, stop to b/e
[14:07] {munky} ok, 1:1 gets b/e...forget and put .34 hard in
[14:08] {munky} wish i blew it all out at .51 tho
[14:08] {munky} just because todays been a real b*tch
[14:09] {fish_49} huh  today a bioth?  what do you call yesterday  lol?
[14:09] {mojo1} double biotch
[14:10] {dino} lstr spike
[14:11] {dino} partial fill rnet l .20
[14:12] {fish_49} anything hot in news  to give us that short lived panic?
01[14:14] {@Threei}  no
[14:15] {nemo} they couldn't break the overhead range, so then they go to the otherside
01[14:15] {@Threei}  just a bout of some poisonous substance spreading through someone veins
[14:15] {dino} just say "no"
[14:15] {nemo} people bought in hopes of testing the upper range, now getting out of the way for the jobs report
[14:18] {mojo1} dino what can you do with that, rnet hardly movin,  hide an order in between 90 and 50 say at 77 and hope somebody fills it
[14:18] {thomcbell} might need some sideways here but ubnt 49.50 short break
[14:20] {dino} pretty much, or wait to hit a higher bid
[14:20] {dino} report was good, a beat
[14:21] {mojo1} so where's ur stop
[14:21] {dino} lol, it is wide, thin sucker, hooker spreads, only playing w/200
[14:22] {dino} control risk thru size
[14:22] {dino} would like 49.50s
[14:23] {nemo} spy only 51 mil
[14:23] {mojo1} i don't know what kinda hooker your buying, but i'd run from that
[14:23] {dino} roflol
[14:23] {dino} but they pay me
01[14:23] {@Threei}  lol
[14:23] {dino} just chasig cars, woof!
[14:23] {mojo1} cuz ur their only customer
[14:25] {munky} nemo, i wish u called a bounce buy on fb
[14:25] {nemo} ungrateful bastid
[14:25] {fish_49} it gave you a breakout shot  Munky
[14:25] {fish_49} .62  with .42 stop  half lot
[14:25] {munky} no nemo, i mean call it out
[14:25] {dino} i'm thinking about a teqiola shot
[14:25] {nemo} I called the short, wtf
[14:25] {dino} tequila
[14:26] {munky} i called the short hours before
[14:26] {RonS} celg sm l 7.35
01[14:26] {@Threei}  full room of frikin Nostradamuses
[14:27] {nemo} no, I gave a specific break down on that big bid
01[14:27] {@Threei}  didn't he call FB short in 1654?
[14:27] {fish_49} yes he did  Vad  and he got stopped out
01[14:28] {@Threei}  lol
[14:28] {munky} dont make me come over there with a banana in my pocket nemo
[14:28] {nemo} scary...
[14:28] {nemo} TMI...
[14:29] {nemo} weird week though....gap down,  gap up, doji doji
[14:29] {fish_49} sounds like a football play being called
[14:29] {fish_49} on the break of 3
[14:29] {nemo} OMAHA!
[14:30] {fish_49} need coffee  hold  all calls  (Only the Winners)
[14:31] {RonS} out celg -.20
[14:31] {munky} good stop
01[14:32] {@Threei}  btw, here is a little guide for you lot for when Les is back:
[14:32] {mojo1} what does BTFD mean?
01[14:32] {@Threei}  http://goo.gl/kp5sGT
[14:33] {nemo} BUY THE F'N DIP!
[14:33] {mojo1} lol
[14:34] {RonS} http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g10kNyuLuF4
[14:34] {nemo} there was another one Doug Kass posted back in 2010
[14:34] {munky} whats "F'N" mean?
06[14:35] * nemo faints
01[14:35] {@Threei}  Fornicated Nicely
[14:35] {fish_49} when I say dip you do what?
[14:37] {fish_49} what is he saying  free white nose con?
[14:37] {mojo1} candy i think
[14:37] {fish_49} what is creating out of thin air?
01[14:38] {@Threei}  money by federal reserve?
[14:38] {fish_49} Must be from the south  I clouldn't understand him  lol
[14:39] {RonS} lol
[14:39] {mojo1} why don't we BTFD
01[14:41] {@Threei}  we do when right setup prsentes itself
[14:41] {mojo1} just checking
[14:44] {munky} whats B.T.F.D ?
[14:44] {dino} hey austin powers (mojo), out rnet .40, +1.20
[14:45] {fish_49} nice  did she swallow?
[14:45] {nemo} poor janitor
[14:45] {mojo1} gj
[14:45] {dino} ty buddy
[14:46] {RonS} rnet contortionist hooker...gj
[14:46] {dino} figured you'd take a ride on that one ron
[14:47] {munky} i would dino, but i gotta know ur stop level
[14:47] {RonS} too wide for me buddy...never masterd buying & selling to myself like you...
[14:47] {munky} christ if i go and say stop it .60 cents
[14:47] {dino} $250 max loss/trade
[14:47] {munky} but u hold it thru a dollar down against
[14:48] {munky} then it rises
[14:48] {fish_49} nerves
[14:48] {dino} doesn't matter, just know your $ stop, control thru size.discipline trumps conviction.
[14:48] {nemo} smaller lot sizes
[14:49] {munky} well, u aswered the question, u are willing to take 250 loss
[14:49] {munky} is that on every trade u post in here?
[14:49] {dino} yes, only 200 on that one. vsm=200, smr=300, sm=400, hl=500, nothing mentioned 1k
[14:50] {munky} ok, so understand it as best as a simian can i guess
[14:50] {dino} munky, no. on huge gapers like that yes. but typically my stop is .33-.36 cents on a trade of 300-400 shares. on 500 -.20, on 1k -.12
[14:51] {dino} but big gappers, i must give chance to work....pulp, as we say
[14:52] {munky} my pen ran out of ink writing down vsmsmrbtfdetc
[14:52] {RonS} http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xCXbn4MTnk
[14:53] {dino} lol, but don't trade what i trade until you're more experienced. hookers can hurt you.
01[14:53] {@Threei}  they can?
[14:53] {nemo} not to mention you don't trade what dino trades, unless you understand it
[14:54] {dino} i've been trading full time since 2000, in this room, about 6 years, right vad?
01[14:55] {@Threei}  I'd have to look it up but by memory sounds about right
[14:55] {munky} yea like the hooker in the old movie "fort apache in the bronx"
[14:55] {dino} just remember this and you should be ok: profits=luck; losses=skill.
[14:56] {nemo} imo...indexes probably hang out in this area
[14:56] {nemo} shit gonna' get choppy
[14:56] {fish_49} they recoverd  but the NQ  is still lagging
[14:56] {fish_49} recovered
[14:57] {nemo} this is more about the spy and rut
[14:57] {mojo1} Dino, looks like you're the luckiest bastard with no skill, I've ever seen!
[14:57] {munky} munky falls out of tree laughin
[14:58] {dino} better lucky than good
[14:58] {nemo} yeah, I've said that often
[14:58] {nemo} his wife was probably homecoming queen
[14:58] {dino} timimg and luck play a big part in my life
[14:59] {dino} but remember, some create their own luck
[15:00] {nemo} must be tough to wipe your ass with that horseshoe stuck up there
[15:00] {dino} bitch to sit down
[15:01] {nathan} short MAT .95 break
[15:01] {nemo} .70 range in spy wow
[15:02] {nemo} one could make an argument for vxx long here
01[15:02] {@Threei} Short Setup: SPY  .20 break
01[15:02] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
[15:02] {nemo} pair trade then
01[15:02] {@Threei}  same idea that yours
[15:02] {nemo} yep
01[15:03] {@Threei}  a bit different chart configuration though
[15:03] {nemo} yep
01[15:03] {@Threei}  SPY is inversed C&H, aggressive entry
[15:03] {nemo} mine at vwap support, your's at vwap resistance
[15:03] {dino} nsm spike
01[15:03] {@Threei}  I don't base them on VWAP though
[15:03] {munky} but vxx is cheaper on bp
01[15:03] {@Threei}  just on charts
[15:03] {nemo} I understand
01[15:04] {@Threei}  VXX would probably be .15 break
[15:04] {nemo} vwap on my chart
01[15:04] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .15 break
01[15:04] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
[15:04] {munky} ill gao zvxx
01[15:04] {@Threei}  munky switched to Chinese
[15:04] {nemo} frickin gui lo
[15:05] {dino} f#ck, rnet at 51s
01[15:05] {@Threei}  maybe aggressivER still on SPY... .25 break
01[15:06] {@Threei}  with .36 stop
[15:06] {nemo} ahhh, rorschach stock, huh dino
[15:06] {dino} bumming, i sold at 49.40
01[15:07] {@Threei}  SPY... with any luck, this can turn into a large trade
[15:07] {fish_49} If Spy works  the VXX trade should also?
01[15:07] {@Threei}  yes
[15:08] {dino} vxx, viix
[15:08] {dino} xiv should drop
01[15:08] {@Threei}  want this paired trade to be come a day saver
[15:08] {nemo} you may actuall see an outsize gain on vxx
01[15:08] {@Threei}  2 1:3ers
01[15:09] {@Threei}  at least, may be more
01[15:09] {@Threei}  if real panic comes and that large inverted C&H hits
[15:09] {munky} so u think mkt falls into close , why?
[15:09] {nemo} methinks insurance gets bought more than spy gets sold
01[15:09] {@Threei}  because if the chart configuration?
[15:09] {nemo} weekly options coming due
01[15:10] {@Threei}  of
[15:10] {dino} nemo, think that happens more tomorrow going into weekend
01[15:10] {@Threei}  and volume
[15:10] {nemo} jobs report dino
01[15:10] {@Threei}  look how volume shapes up on that C&H
[15:10] {dino} munky, don't think.
01[15:10] {@Threei}  or at least think twice before thinking
[15:11] {dino} don't let opinions (thinking) get in the way of making $$$
[15:11] {nemo} SOMG
[15:11] {nemo} SOB
[15:11] {nemo} Les
06[15:12] * dino slaps nemo around a bit with a large trout
06[15:12] * nemo slaps dino around with an Rem 870 mariner
[15:12] {dino} raising the stakes
[15:12] {nemo} hehehehe
[15:13] {nemo} never bring a trout to a gunfight
[15:13] {dino} lol
[15:13] {fish_49} I agree
01[15:13] {@Threei}  lol
01[15:13] {@Threei}  drop already SPY
[15:13] {nemo} I used to love fly fishing for trout when I was a kid
[15:14] {_illyakuryakin} a trout will give you a good slap
[15:14] {nemo} so won't the recall from an 870
[15:14] {nemo} recoil
[15:14] {nemo} sheeesh
[15:14] {nemo} spy going back to vwap
[15:14] {fish_49} out VXX
01[15:15] {@Threei}  no go
01[15:15] {@Threei}  SPY's last hope
[15:16] {munky} tough day
[15:17] {nemo} yeah, I'll just bend over and take it like a man
[15:17] {munky} no kidding, ass cracker
[15:17] {nemo} I guess I can hope for a kiss behind the ear or a reach around
[15:17] {fish_49} most men dont bend over and take it... Tell us what yo mean Nemo
[15:18] {nemo} I'll show you when I see you fish
[15:18] {fish_49} keeping my soap on the rope
[15:19] {munky} 7 more days in a row like yester and today and u guys will be free of the munky
[15:20] {dino} hmmm, up 11 days in row here
[15:20] {dino} just jinxed myself i'm sure
[15:20] {fish_49} I will collect my share  and can I also collect for Alex?
[15:20] {munky} bend over and ill give u another horse shoe
[15:21] {fish_49} Do you ever play Horse Shoes? Munky?
[15:21] {dino} barrels
[15:22] {fish_49} quarter?
[15:22] {fish_49} Feels  like all is quiet b4 the storm  lol
[15:23] {dino} munky, w/respect. you must never forget rule # 1
[15:23] {munky} horseshoe was nemos joke
[15:23] {nemo} this is a long setup on vxx again, but indexes are so close to vwaps
[15:24] {dino} rule # 1: you must stay in the game.
[15:25] {dino} strange, 07 running mostly red but markets staying up
[15:26] {fish_49} [15:24] {dino} rule # 1: you must stay in the game.
[15:26] {fish_49} Very Good Point
[15:26] {dino} never forget that or you won't be here
01[15:31] {@Threei}  I hate today
01[15:31] {@Threei}  bit less than I hated yesterday but still
[15:31] {fish_49} more than yesterday?
01[15:31] {@Threei}  no
01[15:31] {@Threei}  got 1:3 and 1:2 earlier, and some scalps
01[15:32] {@Threei}  yesterday was hopeless
[15:32] {munky} ther last two trades were like kicking me when im down lol
[15:35] {fish_49} Toad...  VXX is  the ETF  for the VIX right?  and the Vix is supposed  to represent the fear in the S&P?
[15:35] {nemo} yep, and it looks like nobody is afraid of the jobs report
01[15:35] {@Threei}  generally, yes
[15:38] {nemo} frickin' vwap
[15:38] {fish_49} on?
[15:38] {nemo} indexes, that's where vxx iwm and spy will end up, maybe even finnies
[15:42] {mojo1} nemo are you saying vxx would end at the vwap 43.03 give or take
[15:43] {nemo} I may be wrong about vxx, since there seems to be no fear, but finnies are coming into vwap so is iwm, spy is .10 below...I expect them to be in spitting distance
[15:43] {nemo} this is time to get chopped up
01[15:45] {@Threei}  if SPY drops now I am going to eat my keyboard
[15:45] {nemo} yeah, I got the sig out
[15:45] {fish_49} Wasabi?  Soy Sauce?
[15:45] {nemo} ?
01[15:45] {@Threei}  also, ask munky for banana and cut my wrist with it
[15:46] {dino} gun to the head time
[15:46] {mojo1} me too
[15:46] {nemo} nah, I'll just put it in my mouth
[15:46] {nemo} .40 cal glaser rounds....should be sufficient
01[15:46] {@Threei}  TMI
[15:46] {fish_49} you dont live in high rise  do you Vad?
01[15:46] {@Threei}  mother... 1:1
01[15:46] {@Threei}  another rinse
[15:46] {fish_49} oh ur still in the SPY trade?  I didnt  take it
01[15:47] {@Threei}  no
01[15:47] {@Threei}  it rinsed
01[15:47] {@Threei}  and no on high rise
[15:47] {mojo1} rinsed me too
[15:48] {mojo1} and i getting ready to jump out the window
01[15:48] {@Threei}  don't remember last time when we had 2 losing days in a row
[15:48] {fish_49} I would jump out my window  but  I'm in the basement
[15:49] {nemo} saw movie Last Vegas...it was o.k., but there is a hilarious scene with Morgan Freeman escaping out the window
[15:49] {fish_49} ok  spy bounce here  07
01[15:49] {@Threei}  nope...
01[15:49] {@Threei}  it will drop now and make me cry
[15:49] {fish_49} it bounced  Vad
[15:49] {fish_49} I didnt  say how high
01[15:49] {@Threei}  yes... 3 cents
[15:49] {fish_49} but it bounced  lol
[15:51] {fish_49} according to the rules ,  it has to bounce back up to .32  b4 the close
01[15:51] {@Threei}  1:2
01[15:51] {@Threei}  this is one not very tasty keyboard
[15:51] {fish_49} I'm holding breath  Please let me know when it bounces
[15:52] {fish_49} vxx short here
01[15:52] {@Threei}  let me try to bite of the other part, numeric
01[15:52] {@Threei}  nah, same crap
[15:52] {munky} interesting nemo, vxx made to vwap
[15:53] {nemo} yep
[15:53] {dino} nemo's good at picking areas
[15:53] {nemo} now let's see what they do with the indexes
[15:53] {dino} calling it a day all, happy hour calls
[15:54] {dino} thx for ideas
[15:54] {fish_49} take care Dino
01[15:54] {@Threei}  takecare dino
01[15:54] {@Threei}  SPY... can't believe this rinse
[15:54] {dino} will do, gn
[15:54] {fish_49} I'm waiting  to see if Vad  can eat the entire KB  in one sitting
[15:54] {nemo} here comes a bounce, let's see
[15:55] {nemo} need my doji
[15:55] {fish_49} ok  so there is the bounce  I called
[15:55] {fish_49} and  there is the short on the VXX
[15:55] {fish_49} I called it back in 1856
[15:55] {fish_49} lol
[15:56] {fish_49} hey  good night all
[15:56] {fish_49} it was a losing day but  I had fun and learned a bit doing it
[15:56] {fish_49} thanks
01[15:56] {@Threei}  OK guys, have a good evening
01[15:56] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:57] {munky} ok goodnite
[16:01] {mojo1} otay
[16:01] {mojo1} gn


March-April 2014 Outlook: Best Picture

TradeTheNews.com March-April 2014 Outlook: Best Picture



The year got off to a rocky start as the impending end of the Fed's quantitative easing program led to a minor retrenchment in the markets. After a blockbuster year for stocks in 2013, major US indices fell in January for the first time in four years. Emerging markets took the brunt of the tapering impact, exacerbated by political problems in places like Turkey, Venezuela, and most recently the Ukraine. Some worse than usual winter weather in the US piled on (literally and figuratively) leading to some re-pricing of risk. Three US Treasury note auctions in last week of February showed strong demand, indicating the bond market also has some reservations about the economic outlook.

But investors cast aside early doubts, and markets came back with guns blazing like an action movie hero in the second act. The S&P500 dipped only single digit percentages in January before rebounding smartly, and European indices largely followed suit, though Japan's Nikkei and many emerging market indices are lagging behind.

Whatever caused the stock market swoon earlier this year, investors have chosen to accentuate the positives like solid Q4 earnings reports, and eliminates the negatives like slow retail sales and industrial production data. Much like the Academy Awards broadcast , the markets only really seem interested in presenting the best picture. Some new MacGuffins may yet emerge to reverse plot of the market's risk-on sentiment, but so far even the Russia heavy (Putin) has failed to changed the course of the story.

American Hustle

In the US, the major question continues to be how markets will respond to the Fed tapering quantitative easing. The Fed has taken the last year to carefully frame tapering not as the beginning of the end of accommodation, but merely as the withdrawal of additional stimulus, and has indicated that barring a disruptive new trend in the data, the QE rollback will stay on its $10B per meeting pace and wrap up in late 2014. So far US markets have bought in to that script, continuing to set new record highs on the S&P and Dow, but as the end of QE approaches there could be some renewed jitters, and the equities could get more skittish. Already some chartists note that the most recent highs are getting narrower in breadth, based largely on a few outsized winners (like Tesla), and the doomsayers keep pointing to stock index charts that suggests an eerie similarity between the last year and the lead up to the 1929 crash.

Brazen predictions aside, the end of QE is being absorbed without too much tumult, but eventually forward looking markets will start to model what comes after QE has ended. Fed Chair Yellen and her cohorts have stated publically that they are looking to retool forward guidance, taking it away from quantitative measures like the 6.5% unemployment threshold and back to the more qualitative guidance seen pre-crisis. Given the broad range of opinions expressed by FOMC members on this subject, it could reasonably take the rest of the year for the Fed to craft their new forward guidance, but we will continue to see glimpses of its evolution in "rushes" of Fed speeches and minutes in the months to come.

Things are clearer than they have been for a long time on the US fiscal front. After producing nothing but political cliff hangers over the last few years, Washington has finally made some progress toward reducing uncertainty. Congress has cleared the decks for 2014, settling the debt ceiling issue as well as funding the government through the mid-term elections and into early next year. The politicians are now discussing less pressing issues like raising the minimum wage and extending unemployment insurance (UI). The minimum wage is a perennial football in Washington, while the expiration of UI benefits for millions of Americans could hurt consumer spending at a sensitive moment of the recovery, and play more havoc with unemployment figures that have already been skewed by structural changes that have noticeably shifted the workforce participation rate.

Aside from the jobless rate falling faster than expected, US economic data has been largely disappointing for a couple of months. It is yet unclear, however, whether its root is a cyclical slowdown or just that the data has been tainted by the worst winter weather in decades. The weather may give us a free pass for Q1, but heading into the spring the data needs to shake off those temporary factors.

A worst case scenario for the Fed would be payroll and housing numbers failing to pick up in the spring, testing the central bank's resolve to finishing tapering. Though the FOMC policy statement leaves nominal flexibility, bank officials have made it clear that it would take a significant outlook change to deviate from the current path of tapering. So if the cuts in QE are paused, then the market reaction could be exaggerated. Central bank officials are also keenly aware that a mid-course shift in tapering could further chip away at Fed credibility that has been eroded by dodgy economic forecasts and the communications bobble in mid-2013 that led to the 'taper tantrum'.

A spring thaw in US data could be led by a snap back in housing. Already the January new home sales reading came in at a 7-month high, despite the cold weather woes. If other indicators like building permits and existing home sales start to confirm an improvement in the housing market, they could in turn lead other economic data higher, perhaps shaking the winter malaise off of consumer spending and industrial production numbers. Better numbers in the next two months could still salvage a decent rebound in growth when the advance Q1 GDP data is released on April 30.

Brussels Buyers Club

After many years of struggle, the European economy is starting to show some renewed signs of life. Unemployment has stabilized, Ireland is exiting its extraordinary support program followed closely by Portugal, and there are no new sovereign financial crises on the radar. Sovereign bond yields between peripheral nations and the German bund are at their narrowest in years, indicating cohesion is returning to the euro zone after it was nearly spun apart. Within the zone the only current political drama is in Italy, where an ambitious young party boss has pushed out Prime Minister Letta, though it remains unclear if this will be a setback for Italy's economy which just scored its first quarterly growth reading in over two years.

Lately, the chief concern for Europe has been persistent low inflation. The European Central Bank, which has tried get out in front of some previous policy hazards, has had a more difficult time taking a decision on this matter. Officials have been jawboning the issue, never missing a chance to note "inflation expectations are well anchored", but they seem to be hesitant to pull the trigger on the next evolution of policy accommodation.

The latest reports, however, indicate a move could come as soon as the March 6th policy meeting, when new staff economic projections through 2016 will be released. It appears that with inflation sitting on the lower boundary of its comfort zone, there is a growing consensus at the ECB that preemptive action is needed again to head off a crisis moment before it erupts. Last year a move to negative deposit rates got a lot of discussion, though it had some detractors worried about unintended consequences. Indications now are that a small cut in the main refi rate is under consideration, or that the central bank may instead elect to end the so-called sterilization of bond purchases, the practice of the ECB selling an equivalent asset for every purchase it makes under its Securities Markets Program (SMP). Tight liquidity in the euro zone has contributed to numerous sterilizations failing recently, which appears to suit the ECB's ends given that it wants to boost the money supply. With even the hard-line German Bundesbank now ostensibly supportive of ending sterilization, ECB President Draghi has the power to transform the SMP into quantitative easing in all but name. A green light for ending sterilization at the March or April meeting would release approximately 180 billion euros, almost doubling the amount of excess liquidity in the euro zone financial system, and could achieve the added benefit of lowering the euros exchange rate.

At the next couple of ECB policy meetings Draghi will also likely continue to discuss ideas for a new LTRO-style operation that would target increased lending to the real economy to boost growth and inflation rather than for bank capital formation as the original LTROs fell into. Such a program still has numerous technical and political hurdles to clear, but Draghi should keep it in his rhetorical toolbox as he works to reinforce euro zone stability.

Though the euro zone and EU are restoring a sense of stability, they don't have to look too far beyond their borders for fresh headaches. The upheaval in the Ukraine has revived the specter of the Cold War as the populace struggles between the allure of Europe and its historic ties with Russia to the east. Russian President Putin tried to force the issue by mobilizing troops, but the threat of international sanctions and an immediate double digit drop in the Russian stock market seemed to give Mr. Putin pause. He quickly wound down the "military exercises" in the region around Ukraine and suggested that military force would be used only as a last resort in defense of Russia's interests in Crimea. For the moment, tensions have eased, though a Crimea referendum on its status within the Ukraine set for March 30 may provoke a more violent clash if Ukraine asserts its territorial sovereignty and refuses to let go of the Black Sea holdings that Russia ceded to it sixty years ago.

The Dragon of Wall Street

As China continues its effort to engineer a shift from an export led economy to one driven by consumer demand, the world's second largest economy is experiencing some growing pains. A wave of subpar manufacturing data continues to raise questions about the nation's economic vitality, though the latest trade balance number was encouraging with higher than expected imports and exports. The official 2013 GDP tally came in at 7.7%, two-tenths ahead of the official target, but the weakest growth in 14 years.

The National People's Congress (NPC) meeting the first week of March (starts 3/5) may set the tone for the economy in 2014. The meeting will produce the official macro targets for the year as well as set the agenda for economic reform efforts. Most analysts see the central government maintaining the official growth target at 7.5% for 2014, necessary to keep on pace for achieving the decade-long goal of doubling the economy through 2020.

Others see a different outcome. Ahead of the event, a government-affiliated think tank called the State Information Center proposed lowering this year's target to 7% as a signal to local governments to relax their single-minded focus on growth, trim back unnecessary investments, and address economic reform. In November, Premier Li Keqiang indicated that 7.2% GDP growth is require d to create the 10 million jobs annually needed to keep urban employment levels steady. Additionally, one Chinese news report indicated that nearly two dozen provinces would lower their GDP targets this year while only two looked to raise them. Given this, there is some speculation that China's government could set the growth target at 7% or couch a 7.5% number as a "projection" rather than as a firm target.

A lower GDP growth goal could be taken as a signal that Beijing is getting more serious about tackling the economic reforms needed to address international jitters about exploding local government debt, nearing $3 trillion in mid-2013. The NPC could also announce steps to improve and structure local government access to the municipal bond market to replace ad-hoc funding through short term bank loans.

[*Note: since the time of writing, the NPC has announced that for the third year in a row the GDP target will remain at 7.5%, though the 2014 target was labeled as "elastic", which one National People's Congress deputy said was aimed at "changing the mindset of GDP worship" amongst local level officials].

China's master planners have also started moving the currency in unexpected ways. The yuan has dropped steadily in 2014, falling over 1% against the greenback in a few weeks after appreciating 10% over the last three years. Analysts say the People's Bank of China is engineering the reversal in an effort to punish currency speculators and to squeeze out hot money inflows, which amounted to something like $150B last year. The concern appears to be that the inflows of foreign capital could complicate the government's latest economic reform efforts coming out of the NPC meeting. Reports are that the move has had the unintended consequence of flooding China's money market with local currency and pushing down unofficial lending rates, contrary to the governments goal of keeping borrowing costs elevated.

Chinese corporate debt levels have pushed to record highs, ending 2013 at $12T or about 120% of GDP, which has raised some concerns about the potential for instability in Chinese financial markets. Until now the government in Beijing has facilitated bailouts of every major business venture that has threatened to default, but press reports have suggested that growing corporate debt levels will obligate some future defaults and an acceleration of domestic restructuring. When the government chooses to allow a firm to default it may lead to some retrenchment in Chinese financial markets as investors learn that they cannot assume they will always be made whole.

The moment of truth may have just arrived in the form of Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology [002506.CN], which just announced that it will not able to repay in full 90 milion yuan of interest on its corporate bond. This amounts to the first default on publicly traded debt in modern Chinese history, and one analyst has already suggested that Chaori's default could be China's "Bear Stearns moment". This may conjure some short term uncertainty, but ultimately allowing some failures will improve Chinese markets, prompting investors to make more studied choices when deploying capital.

12 Years a Malaise

In neighboring Japan the bull case is quite simple: more of the same. The Nikkei exploded higher last year on optimism about Prime Minister Abe's radical turnaround plan that snapped the nation out of a decades-long economic coma. The next potential stumbling block Abe's eponymous scheme is an increase in the consumption tax, meant to chip away at the nation's huge deficit, and set to go into effect at the start of the new fiscal year on the 1st of April. Japanese consumerism could feel a chill in as the tax on most products and services rises from 5% up to 8%, with another two-percent increase slated to occur in late 2015. Government and central bank officials seem to be quite confident that their stimulus plans will lead companies to boost the wages of their workers enough to offset the sales tax increase. Indeed many of the country's biggest manufacturers have already indicated a willingness to raise worker base pay for the first time in years, but if wage gains don't materialize on a nationwide scope it could pose a risk to the Abe administration in politically fickle Japan.

Gravity

What goes up must eventually come down, though it matters how you come down as Sandra Bullock's character in the motion picture Gravity can attest. In a world of political crises in eastern Europe, lackluster economic data in the US and China, uncomfortably low inflation in the EMU, and the first big test of the Japanese reflation planwhat does it all amount to? So far not enough to erode the risk-on sentiment that is keeping this five-year-old bull market going.

That could change with a bad turn of events like US data staying tepid once the weather excuse is gone, or a shooting-war erupting in Ukraine. More likely though, this season the markets will mirror the movie business dumping forgettable bombs on the public in the first few months of the year, but then bringing out the sequels and blockbusters in the spring. If things go well, the Wall Street crowd could be lining up to see 2013: Part II.




CALENDAR
MARCH
2: China non-manufacturing PMI; China HSBC manufacturing PMI
3: Various EU manufacturing PMIs; US ISM manufacturing PMI; US personal spending
4: UK construction PMI; Spain unemployment
5: Various EU services PMIs; UK inflation report hearings; US ADP employment; US ISM non-manufacturing PMI; China National People's Congress begins
6: German factory orders; BOE policy statement; ECB policy statement; US factor orders
7: German industrial production; US payrolls and unemployment; US trade balance; China trade balance
8: China CPI and PPI

9: Japan Q4 final GDP; Japan current account
10: BOJ policy statement
11: UK manufacturing production
12: EU industrial production; G7 meeting
13: China industrial production; ECB monthly bulletin; US retail sales
14: US PPI; US prelim U of M consumer sentiment

17: Euro Zone CPI; US industrial production
18: German ZEW economic sentiment; US housing starts and building permits
19: BOE minutes and inflation letter; UK annual budget announcement; UK unemployment; FOMC policy statement and press conference; Japan trade balance; China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI
20: Euro Zone flash PMI; UK retail sales; US existing home sales; Philly Fed manufacturing; US flash manufacturing PMI
21: Euro Zone current account

25: German Ifo business climate; UK CPI and PPI; US new home sales; US consumer confidence
26: UK final Q4 GDP; US durable goods orders
27: US final Q4 GDP; US pending home sales; Japan industrial production; Japan retail sales
28: German retail sales; US personal spending

30: Crimea referendum on its status within the Ukraine
31: Euro Zone flash CPI estimate; Chicago PMI; China manufacturing PMI; China HSBC final manufacturing PMI

APRIL
1: Japan consumption tax increase to 8% become effective; UK manufacturing PMI; Euro Zone unemployment; US ISM manufacturing
2: US ADP employment; US factory orders
3: Various EU services PMIs; ECB policy statement; US trade balance; US ISM non-manufacturing PMI
4: German factory orders; US payrolls and unemployment

7: German industrial production; China CPI and PPI; China GDP; BOJ policy statement (tentative); China trade balance
8: China industrial production; UK manufacturing production
9: FOMC minutes
10: BOE policy statement
11: US PPI; US prelim U of M consumer sentiment

14: Euro Zone industrial production; US retail sales
15: UK CPI and PPI; German Zew economic sentiment
16: UK unemployment; Euro Zone CPI; US housing starts and building permits; US industrial production
17: Philly Fed manufacturing index
18: G20 meeting

21: Japan trade balance
22: US existing home sales
23: BOE minutes; US new home sales; China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI
24: Euro Zone flash PMI; UK retail sales; US flash manufacturing PMI
25: US final U of M consumer sentiment

28: US pending home sales
29: UK prelim Q1 GDP; US consumer confidence; Japan industrial production; Japan retail sales; BOJ policy statement
30: Euro Zone flash CPI; ADP employment; US advance Q1 GDP (1st reading); FOMC policy statement; China manufacturing PMI; HSBC final manufacturing PMI


MAY
1: Various EU manufacturing PMIs; US personal spending; US ISM manufacturing PMI
2: Euro Zone unemployment; US payrolls and unemployment; US factory orders; China non-manufacturing PMI


25: Ukraine elections

Wednesday, March 5, 2014

March 05 2014

With patternless trading in a narrow range, first losing day in over two weeks. Oh well.


Session Time: Wed Mar 05 00:00:00 2014
[09:04] {munky} morning
01[09:04] {@Threei}  morning munky
01[09:15] {@Threei}  (UR) US, UK and Ukraine foreign ministers release joint statement, assert that observers should be deployed immediately in Eastern Ukraine and Crimea - press
[09:16] {RonS} gm...w/ your fed observer creds sounds right up your alley 3i
01[09:17] {@Threei}  except I have zero desire for that posting
[09:17] {dino} gm
01[09:17] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:17] {nemo} so now the internet is working
01[09:17] {@Threei}  been to Crimea many times... my vacation preferences are slighlty different
[09:17] {nemo} so frickin' weird
[09:17] {nemo} still having them switch out the box this afternoon
[09:17] {fish_49} not the modem  then
[09:17] {RonS} what? cannot stand around and say: holy shit the russian tanks are rolling?
01[09:17] {@Threei}  what isn't about you, nemo?
[09:18] {nemo} Yeah, was talking to God about that yesterday
01[09:18] {@Threei}  he said nothing can do?
[09:18] {nemo} he said, "Heavy is the head that gets hit by a sledge hammer"
01[09:19] {@Threei}  I like places with clean water, Ron... just weird habit of mine
[09:21] {ese} morning
01[09:21] {@Threei}  ese :)
[09:21] {ese} morning vad
[09:22] {ese} am ready for a fresh round of whippings from this crew
[09:22] {ese} go ahead all ah ya.......take your best shot
[09:23] {nemo} it's not PC to pick on the mentally disabled
01[09:23] {@Threei}  we are not Putin, we need a reason
[09:24] {ese} lol
[09:26] {mojo1} gd morning
01[09:26] {@Threei}  mojo :)
[09:27] {ese} This article on cbc.ca website puts this in perspective nicely: The Ukraine crisis through the whimsy of international law Money and hard power count, and that's that By Neil Macdonald, CBC News Posted: Mar 05, 2014 5:00 AM ET
01[09:28] {@Threei}  got a link?
01[09:28] {@Threei}  ah OK, I found it. Will look later and tell you how close to reality it is
[09:29] {ese} The last statement is perfect.......Money and hard power count, and that's that. The big players have it, and the smaller players play along. If we need the anaesthetic liquor of self-delusion to deal with it, well, drink up.
01[09:30] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .85 break
01[09:30] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
[09:30] {munky} missed
01[09:30] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:30] {mojo1} no chance
01[09:31] {@Threei} Short Setup: EBAY  .05 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .15
01[09:34] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .20 break
01[09:34] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:35] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[09:35] {dptl} good morning all
01[09:35] {@Threei}  hey dp
[09:35] {dptl} :)
01[09:37] {@Threei}  no go EBAY
01[09:37] {@Threei}  FB is valid again
01[09:37] {@Threei}  same setup
01[09:38] {@Threei}  should be 1:3er if works
01[09:39] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:40] {dino} bmrn smr l .14
[09:40] {dino} all over
[09:40] {ese} L kmx .49
01[09:41] {@Threei}  oh well
01[09:41] {@Threei}  out balance on a trail
[09:46] {munky} c big climb
01[09:47] {@Threei} Short Setup: JPM  .65 break
01[09:47] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
01[09:49] {@Threei} Short Setup: C  .50 break
01[09:49] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[09:49] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[09:50] {dino} cuda spike
[09:50] {munky} c should set up short vad
[09:51] {nemo} don't short a dull market
[09:51] {dino} roc sm l .01
[09:51] {nemo} spy likely has to test resistance
[09:51] {thomcbell} spwr vulnerable here
[09:52] {thomcbell} doesnt have group support
[09:52] {fish_49} out jpm
01[09:52] {@Threei}  no go
01[09:53] {@Threei} Long Setup:  YHOO  .85 break
01[09:53] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
[09:53] {nemo} finnie gap close at this high
01[09:56] {@Threei}  hmmm
[09:56] {fish_49} out yhoo
01[09:56] {@Threei}  not getting this morning right
01[09:56] {@Threei}  *(US) FEB ISM NON-MANUFACTURING COMPOSITE: 51.6 V 53.5E
[09:58] {munky} lets look for a short in c
[09:58] {fish_49} why because it rallied  or do you see supply there?
[09:58] {nemo} it's the weather
[09:59] {munky} fish, im looking for a setup short
[09:59] {munky} say mkt starts dropping, c starts pllbk
01[10:00] {@Threei}  market dropped
[10:00] {munky} nothing goes straight up
01[10:00] {@Threei}  C stays at the highs, and makes new ones
01[10:00] {@Threei}  maybe double top here
01[10:01] {@Threei} Short Setup: C  .75 break
01[10:01] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
[10:03] {nemo} cam looks shor below .50 if it holds .60
[10:05] {fish_49} i lost connection  did you short C  Munky?  .71?
01[10:05] {@Threei}  .74
[10:06] {fish_49} stop .88?
01[10:06] {@Threei}  .86
[10:07] {nemo} oy
01[10:08] {@Threei}  Ok... I know what's going on
01[10:08] {@Threei}  Asteroid to sweep within moon’s distance on Wednesday
[10:08] {fish_49} drink the grape juice and take a nap
[10:10] {munky} do not even look at ebsay
[10:10] {munky} ebay chart
[10:12] {dptl} lol...must be moon
[10:14] {fish_49} don't look at C  Munky
[10:15] {dino} out roc .41, +.40
[10:15] {nemo} .45 spy range wow
[10:16] {munky} .
[10:19] {dino} roc hl l .01
[10:19] {fish_49} now C  sets up short
[10:20] {nemo} mjn worth watching for long up to 83, or short below the low
[10:20] {dino} shit, only 100 filled
[10:20] {munky} nemo said it, mkt has no power here
[10:21] {ese} agreed munky
[10:21] {munky} i dont care if it explodes up or tanks, just do it
[10:22] {ese} thats why i'm watching the golf news on the golf channel website
[10:22] {nemo} Oh, figured you be watching the history channel programs on Marx Hegel and Castro
01[10:23] {@Threei} Long Setup:  GM  .85 break
[10:23] {ese} probably the most important question on the planet right now is....Is Victor Dubuisson playing the WGC Cadillac Championship this weekend or Tiger
[10:24] {nemo} frickin' limosine liberal
[10:24] {nemo} nke
[10:24] {nemo} sorry
[10:24] {ese} limosine liberal?   too funny
[10:24] {dino} out roc .37, +.36
01[10:25] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
[10:27] {goinshort} GM not shortable here
01[10:28] {@Threei}  why does it matter when we are trying to play it long? :)
[10:28] {ese} nemo......am liken RIG for a longer term hold here......40 bills looks to be big time support.....
[10:29] {dino} WHAT! long term?
[10:29] {ese} opps....didn't mean to swear ....appologise for that
[10:29] {dino} :-)
[10:30] {nemo} yeah, rig looks DB on the daily
[10:30] {dino} out bmrn .54, +.40
[10:32] {nemo} ok...this is how I see it...mon tue was the whipsaw, today "should" be quieter, but they have to test for stops above 188, and the R1 around 188.20...then, barring exogenous events, Friday jobs will be a bit more volatile...if they come in low, but not outrageously, it'll be about the weather...if we come in really close or positive, up day with potential profit taking in afternoon
[10:33] {nemo} this frickin' tight range ain't ammenable to breakout plays
[10:33] {fish_49} I say we break down a bit b4 that happens  Feels  Shortishhhh    lol
[10:34] {dino} gut says up. btfd
[10:34] {munky} u missed thurs completely nemo
[10:34] {nemo} no, probably quiet until friday
[10:34] {RonS} but you lost your gut dino...
[10:34] {nemo} unless exogenous event
[10:34] {fish_49} Markets Closed  Thursday Munky
[10:34] {fish_49} It's National Banana  Day
[10:35] {dino} lol ron, down 23 lbs
[10:35] {nemo} never had a weight problem...I seem to have a permanent six pack
[10:35] {fish_49} Lately  I have a Keg Pack
[10:35] {dino} lucky, i fluctuate 30 lbs in a year
[10:36] {nemo} I was hyperactive as a youth, now I'm overly active in middle age
01[10:38] {@Threei}  we can fully expect you to rise from your grave twice a night then
[10:39] {dino} see losing that weight has my "gut" off, we are dropping
[10:39] {nemo} who me?
01[10:39] {@Threei}  who else... wth such hyperactivity
[10:39] {ese} you read that article vad
01[10:39] {@Threei}  yes ese
01[10:39] {@Threei}  there is not much about reasons for all that, so not much for me to discuss
01[10:40] {@Threei}  1:1  GM
01[10:40] {@Threei}  just complaining about powerful of the world doing what they want
[10:40] {fish_49} it didn't stop out?
01[10:40] {@Threei}  can just as well complain about earthquakes, hurricanes etc
[10:40] {dino} hasn't it always been that way?
01[10:41] {@Threei}  no... couple hundred shares at .79, immediate rebound
01[10:41] {@Threei}  with 5 cents stop, not jumping out that easy
[10:41] {fish_49} I didnt get in the trade  go figure  it went to 1:1
01[10:42] {@Threei}  especially when he likened that to Israeli occupation of Palestine, I lost interest
01[10:42] {@Threei}  hard leftie raving
01[10:42] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:44] {@Threei}  yesterday there was a panel of "experts" on CBC about Ykraine, ese
[10:44] {ese} missed it
01[10:45] {@Threei}  it's amazing how people having zero idea about reality voice out their opinions
01[10:45] {@Threei}  one guy knew what he was talking about
01[10:45] {@Threei}  guess who
[10:45] {munky} thanx gm vad, outs .95 and .05
01[10:45] {@Threei}  Lloyd Axworthy
01[10:45] {@Threei}  yw munky
[10:46] {munky} got lucky on .05
01[10:46] {@Threei}  I took .04, didn't chance it
[10:46] {ese} i met him......had a nice chat with him at a show
[10:46] {munky} i just laid out there and caught top
[10:46] {munky} lucky
01[10:47] {@Threei}  well, I still have 1/4 to try and beat you :)
[10:47] {nemo} stx
[10:48] {nemo} bid dropped out
01[10:49] {@Threei}  (GR) EU officials comment on Greece, find that significant differences remain between Greece and the Troika- Would be surprised if a deal is reached by the Eurogroup by Monday; not pleased with Greece's plans to spend its primary surplus - Greece performing poolry on its reforms but fiscally it is doing well - There is a need for a 3rd program for Greece as it is doubtful it could be able to access the markets
01[10:49] {@Threei}  there
[10:49] {dino} roc hl l .02
01[10:49] {@Threei}  after months of "no need for new borrowing", now there is
[10:50] {dino} shocking...
[10:52] {thomcbell} oh my look at spwr now guys
[10:52] {thomcbell} didnt have group support and they were trying to goose it through that great pattern
[10:57] {dino} ire l .00
[10:57] {dino} .90
[10:57] {dino} sheesh, .80 it is
[10:57] {dino} wtf, can't type
[10:58] {fish_49} 1:1  already Dino
[10:58] {fish_49} ?
[10:58] {fish_49} lol
01[10:58] {@Threei}  Crowd waving Russian flags storms government HQ in Ukraine city of Donetsk
[11:01] {ese} Crimea?
01[11:01] {@Threei}  worse
[11:02] {nemo} Crimea River
[11:02] {nemo} so Ron
[11:02] {ese} rotflol
[11:02] {ese} !!!!!1
01[11:02] {@Threei}  one of the major cities in Eastern Ukraine
[11:02] {ese} sponsored by FSB no doubt
[11:02] {ese} Russian FSB
01[11:02] {@Threei}  sponsored, encouraged, armed
01[11:03] {@Threei}  that's what I meant when said that was second phase of the plan
[11:03] {ese} Putin....once a KGB guy always a kgb guy
01[11:03] {@Threei}  raise tensions, provoke blood
01[11:03] {@Threei}  and become the force of making peace, on your own terms
[11:04] {ese} right out of the ole naziz playbook
[11:04] {ese} s
01[11:04] {@Threei}  see now why I said he plays chess while these guys are tic tac toe?
[11:04] {_illyakuryakin} not checkers?
01[11:05] {@Threei}  nah
[11:05] {ese} is that handle from the old "Man from Uncle" show
[11:06] {_illyakuryakin} old?
[11:06] {ese} ya from the 60's
[11:07] {_illyakuryakin} 1960s?
[11:07] {ese} y
[11:07] {nemo} we had this conversation ese last week
[11:08] {ese} missed it
[11:08] {dino} roc to .32
[11:08] {ese} was in Red Deer.....my mom passed away last wednesday evening
[11:08] {dino} to .42
[11:09] {dino} out roc .42, +.40
01[11:09] {@Threei}  sorry ese
[11:09] {dino} sorry to hear ese
[11:10] {ese} thanks for the thoughts guys and maybe gals.....and you nemo for your kind words
[11:10] {nemo} ese...you'll ruin my reputation
[11:10] {munky} man, fb
[11:10] {ese} life is what it is and were carrying on
[11:11] {munky} just once would like take 1000 shares the correct direction and let it run dollars
[11:11] {nemo} sounds like we would all be better off if we lived our lives with the attitude your mom had
01[11:11] {@Threei}  this is the thinking that destroys trading accoutns munky
[11:12] {nemo} try for singles and doubles
01[11:12] {@Threei}  chasing that star trade you take abnormal risk
[11:12] {nemo} those who dream of the banquet awake to lamentation and sorrow, those who dream of lamentation and sorrow awake to join the hunt
01[11:13] {@Threei}  taking care of the risk, you leave the door open for good trades
[11:13] {thomcbell} vad are you familiar with the turtle soup setup
01[11:13] {@Threei}  which is what nemo just said, only in bad english
[11:13] {ese} i would agree with that nemo......no funeral for her she had a huge party in her hospital room 3 weeks ago......ordered us not to mope.....was surjprised they let her do it
01[11:14] {@Threei}  I used to be thom... long ago
01[11:14] {@Threei}  don't remember much about it
[11:14] {thomcbell} its the 20 period high and fading the setup
[11:14] {dino} munkey, base hits are the high % plays
[11:14] {thomcbell} so FB goes marginally above the old high and you short it coming back thru the old high
[11:14] {nemo} dcc ese
[11:15] {thomcbell} i think it might be a good one to look at today
01[11:15] {@Threei}  well... in bull market that will be low odds play
[11:15] {nemo} ddd looks short here but a bit spready
01[11:15] {@Threei}  look at that same FB for instance
[11:15] {munky} i inspire some of your best logs lol
[11:16] {nemo} no, just repeats of long ago entries
[11:16] {nemo} plu ca change, plu c est le meme chose
01[11:22] {@Threei}  FB top nears
[11:22] {munky} and gm bottom nears
01[11:22] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .20 break hl
01[11:22] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[11:23] {@Threei}  still too stubborn
01[11:23] {@Threei}  stop to .26
01[11:24] {@Threei}  make risk negligible
01[11:24] {@Threei}  out
[11:24] {fish_49} same
[11:24] {fish_49} out for the day
01[11:25] {@Threei}  dirty rotten scoundrel
[11:25] {fish_49} yep
[11:31] {dino} .
[11:32] {fish_49} wmt bounce?
01[11:33] {@Threei}  looks breakdownish rather
[11:47] {dino} internt issues
[11:49] {nemo} kss
[11:50] {dino} ire to .91
[11:58] {dino} to .94, stingy mode
[11:59] {RonS} more than the interest they pay on a deposit...
[11:59] {dino} indeed
[12:00] {dino} nsm drop
[12:00] {dino} vrns spike
[12:02] {RonS} New York Regulator Sends Letter To Nationstar About Mortgage Business
[12:02] {RonS} "We have received hundreds of complaints from New York consumers" about Nationstar mortgage practices, including problems related to mortgage modifications, improper fees, lost paperwork, and numerous other issues, Mr. Lawsky wrote in the letter.
[12:03] {dino} ire to .98
01[12:05] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .10 break
01[12:05] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
[12:06] {dino} out ire .99 ave +.19
[12:07] {dino} back in ten or so
01[12:14] {@Threei}  1:1
[12:15] {fish_49} out here
[12:15] {fish_49} I needed  that
[12:15] {fish_49} kids need milk
[12:15] {fish_49} ty
01[12:16] {@Threei}  yw
01[12:16] {@Threei}  happy to provide some milk for the kids
[12:28] {thomcbell} spwr 35.50 short break if holding 35.60
[12:31] {fish_49} good trade Thom
[12:31] {thomcbell} spwr 1:2
[12:31] {dino} gj
[12:31] {fish_49} I was gonna join you but when I looked at it,  the spread was like 4 cents...
01[12:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MCD  .20 break
01[12:32] {@Threei}  .c .10
[12:32] {dino} 4 cents! thats nothing
[12:32] {fish_49} lol
[12:32] {thomcbell} clean up spwr at 35.20
[12:33] {thomcbell} you said it today
[12:33] {munky} is mcd type 1 trade?
[12:33] {thomcbell} cleaning up spwr here 35.30
01[12:37] {@Threei}  well... it can be played that way but it would have to consolidate better above .15, to provide such narrow stop'
[12:38] {fish_49} type 1  is agressive entry?
01[12:38] {@Threei}  no...
01[12:38] {@Threei}  scalp type 1
01[12:38] {@Threei}  small movement, big shares
[12:39] {fish_49} ahhh ty
[12:41] {munky} news fb?
01[12:42] {@Threei}  no
[12:48] {mojo1} analyst Rohan from Stifel raised target price from $72 to $82 10:45 this morn
[12:48] {mojo1} on fb
[12:48] {munky} ah
[12:49] {munky} anyway, fb has the feel to blow tthru 72 today and possibly near 73 imo
[12:49] {munky} but i guess u need to buy pllbk
[12:49] {munky} and small shares for wide stop
[12:49] {munky} its chart is beauty
[12:49] {fish_49} yea  small shares  like  less than 5000
[12:50] {munky} no, but say 100-200
[12:50] {fish_49} lol
[12:50] {fish_49} whats a few zeros?
[12:51] {munky} the main push probably comes after 2:30 pm
[12:51] {mojo1} the size of your account fish
[12:51] {fish_49} Can I borrow your crystal Ball?
[12:52] {munky} u wait and see
[12:52] {fish_49} I'm not doubting you
[12:52] {munky} no, my balls are not available
[12:52] {fish_49} You sound like Les 3 years ago
[12:55] {RonS} sqm spike
[12:55] {RonS} sqm spike
[12:55] {RonS} oops
[12:58] {munky} im not in fb btw, but if i do ill post entry
[12:58] {dino} rvnc spike
[12:59] {munky} prob is fb mighgt not even let us in now
[13:06] {fish_49} anyone have Big mac for lunch?
[13:07] {nemo} never go near the place
[13:07] {fish_49} I think Big Mac gonna have my Lunch
01[13:08] {@Threei}  didn't it invalidate?
01[13:08] {@Threei}  twice
[13:09] {nemo} so far this is a good day to do nothing
[13:09] {dino} 5/5
[13:09] {nemo} this is a typical day for you though dino
[13:10] {nemo} your style
[13:10] {dino} i wish
[13:10] {fish_49} i didnt see it invalidate
[13:10] {dino} oh style wise, sure, no misses not typical
[13:10] {nemo} that was my point...this is the type of day that works for you
01[13:11] {@Threei}  12:46 and 12:54
01[13:11] {@Threei}  two wicks under .10
[13:11] {fish_49} ohhh  1 tick?
01[13:12] {@Threei}  twice...
[13:12] {dino} just in hunt mode now, waiting for a big spike or drop in something. what? i don't know. doesn't matter. if set up is there i must hit it
01[13:12] {@Threei}  breakout stock doesn't act like this
[13:13] {dino} coffee spike, cafe/jo
[13:13] {RonS} nemo put vodka in it?
[13:14] {dino} lol
[13:14] {RonS} 3i...thinking DE needs to replace mcd on a scan choice...
01[13:17] {@Threei} Long Setup:  P  .45 break
01[13:18] {@Threei}  If holds  .35
[13:19] {nemo} comcast guy here, I'm going dark for awhile
01[13:19] {@Threei}  uh oh
01[13:19] {@Threei}  cable guy
[13:19] {nemo} now depending on how this goes, I won't be back until I get rid of the body
01[13:20] {@Threei}  nemo... beware of plumber's butt
[13:20] {nemo} yeah, at my age, I've seen everything, nothing phases me
01[13:20] {@Threei}  yet can't resist the lure of cable guy
[13:22] {dino} lol nemo
01[13:22] {@Threei}  Ron, DE does look like a candidate
01[13:22] {@Threei}  we traded it before
[13:23] {dino} swy spike
[13:28] {RonS} kr going now...
[13:30] {RonS} csiq gone pulp
[13:31] {RonS} ddd gone fff
01[13:31] {@Threei}  lol
01[13:31] {@Threei}  btw ron
01[13:31] {@Threei}  you upset nemo by ignoring his Crimea River
01[13:31] {@Threei}  he counted on you
[13:32] {RonS} didn't see it...pretty good...
01[13:32] {@Threei}  he will be happy to hear that
01[13:32] {@Threei}  oh, here he is
[13:33] {RonS} P 1:.2
06[13:33] * @Threei slaps nemo around a bit with a large endorsement of nemo's sense of humor by Ron
01[13:33] {@Threei}  wow... he is totally into that cable guy it seems
[13:34] {RonS} lol
[13:34] {RonS} must be a chick...
01[13:34] {@Threei}  he said guy
01[13:35] {@Threei}  and murmured something about experimenting
[13:35] {RonS} rotflol
01[13:35] {@Threei}  (not that theree is anything wrong with that)
01[13:37] {@Threei}  .50 break should catapult P
01[13:37] {@Threei}  to .51
[13:37] {fish_49} lol
[13:37] {fish_49} P?
01[13:37] {@Threei}  ?
[13:37] {RonS} fish gonna say he missed it?
01[13:37] {@Threei}  lol
[13:38] {fish_49} no  I get worried when I get a good fill..  I filled at .46
[13:38] {fish_49} Trust me I wished I missed a few today...
[13:40] {dino} kr s .40
[13:47] {dino} ty ron, cov kr .28, +.12
[13:48] {RonS} gj
[13:48] {dino} that .40 was stubburn area
[13:50] {thomcbell} fb 71.70 short break vad
01[13:50] {@Threei}  with .78 stop?
01[13:50] {@Threei}  yup
[13:50] {thomcbell} yes
[13:53] {fish_49} Out P
01[13:53] {@Threei}  sigh
[13:53] {goinshort} meh
01[13:53] {@Threei}  FB 1:1
[13:53] {munky} stopped p
[13:53] {munky} .34
01[13:54] {@Threei}  some days you are a windshield... today, bug
01[13:54] {@Threei}  unless 4 1:3ers come along now, this shapes up to be first losing day in two weeks
01[13:55] {@Threei}  (UR) Ukraine court issues ruling that calls for detaining the Crimea premier and Crimea parliamentary speaker; accuses Crimea leadership of attempted coup
01[13:55] {@Threei}  that's right, let's give them more pretext for riot
[13:57] {thomcbell} small long scty
[14:04] {nemo} o.k. I let him live
[14:04] {munky} raising target fb to 74
[14:05] {fish_49} today?
[14:05] {munky} yup
[14:05] {munky} dont trade it fish
[14:05] {fish_49} lol
[14:05] {munky} just readimng it
[14:06] {fish_49} did you really think I would?
[14:07] {munky} fisdh, io thought 72 easy when it was 71
[14:07] {munky} and thought 73 by eod
[14:07] {munky} but now, by eod it will get frantic
[14:07] {munky} and could really go
[14:08] {munky} the pllbk entry as 71.41
[14:08] {munky} but i did not take it
[14:08] {munky} thought it was pllbk to 71
[14:10] {munky} its just very strong today
[14:15] {dino} cimt drop
[14:20] {RonS} tgt drop on vol
[14:22] {munky} pretty good pllbk now fb, not in
[14:22] {munky} just reading it
[14:25] {dino} who unplugged the market?
[14:25] {dino} dead out there
[14:27] {nemo} likely dead until Friday
[14:27] {nemo} http://goo.gl/Yjp2ei
[14:30] {RonS} leaving now, eh?
[14:30] {nemo} here already
[14:31] {thomcbell} i made a sale on scty at 78.25 looking to exit on next bounce if it comes
01[14:33] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB.55  break
01[14:33] {@Threei}  If holds  .65
01[14:35] {@Threei}  grrr
[14:35] {fish_49} out
[14:35] {nemo} look to short again here
[14:36] {munky} crazy
[14:36] {nemo} thank you
[14:36] {munky} short hasrd dime
[14:36] {munky} long big dollars
[14:45] {munky} banana good...apple bad
01[14:45] {@Threei}  my kind of language
01[14:46] {@Threei} Short Setup: P  .10 break
01[14:47] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
[14:48] {nemo} fb short again
[14:49] {munky} crazy lol
[14:50] {munky} nemo, u ever feel like day repeats itself?
[14:50] {nemo} if it holds .70 and drops .60 could be decent
[14:50] {nemo} .30 likely first stop
[14:50] {nemo} then the whole, then vwap
[14:50] {nemo} especially if the market comes in
[14:51] {nemo} time is an illusion munky
[14:51] {RonS} qunr pop
[14:52] {munky} so if sets up u like it short off .60?
[14:53] {nemo} .60 was trigger
[14:53] {munky} or here sh offg .50?
[14:53] {nemo} .70 stop
[14:53] {nemo}  well a penny or two above
[14:53] {thomcbell} wow scty worked without me
[14:54] {nemo} there you go
[14:54] {nemo} thom, that's what my girlfriend said when she bought her vibrator
01[14:55] {@Threei}  lolk
01[14:55] {@Threei}  die P
[14:55] {nemo} need the market to come in
[14:55] {thomcbell} hah
[14:55] {nemo} I said the same thing to her when I got a pet sheep
[14:56] {dino} nasty
[14:56] {RonS} daisy?
[14:56] {dino} nope
[14:56] {fish_49} the sad thing is that it's most likely true
[14:57] {nemo} reminds me of the joke
[14:57] {RonS} funniest scene ever...when daisy dumps gene wilder...
[14:57] {goinshort} come on spy dump
[14:57] {nemo} Newspaper reporter goes out to the Reservation to meet this Indian famous for being able to talk to the animals
[14:58] {nemo} So he and the Indian are walking around, and the rabbit says hi, and the Indian talks back
[14:58] {nemo} Same thing happens with the coyote, and the cows and the horses,
[14:58] {nemo} out FB above .66
[14:58] {nemo} The reporter sees some sheep and says to the indian, "Let's go talk to the sheep."
[14:58] {nemo} Indian says, "Stay away from them, sheep lie.
[14:59] {goinshort} that was baaad !
[14:59] {nemo} nice
01[14:59] {@Threei}  lol
[15:00] {nemo} FB still good
[15:01] {fish_49} until .27
[15:01] {nemo} here comes the .30 test
[15:01] {munky} ok u win fb
[15:01] {munky} nice read
[15:02] {munky} u dont know how hard tat was to say lol
[15:02] {fish_49} munky you were correct  it did go to 74    .74 that is
[15:02] {fish_49} 1 more tick P
[15:02] {fish_49} half out
01[15:02] {@Threei}  1:1
[15:02] {goinshort} 1:1
[15:03] {nemo} well, guess resistance is above .50 now, but take it as you want it
[15:05] {thomcbell} action very crazy toay
[15:06] {nemo} restrained actually because of the tight index ranges
[15:06] {nemo} this environment gotta' sell resistance and buy support as a rule
[15:07] {nemo} I just thought FB short had a chance because it was up Sooooo big today, figured there be some profit taking on this run
[15:07] {thomcbell} wild moves in individual names
[15:07] {munky} well
[15:07] {nemo} deep
[15:07] {thomcbell} feye up 10% on a price target raise
[15:07] {munky} i dont agree with that completely
[15:08] {nemo} price is the only arbiter of truth
[15:09] {munky} true, but it could reload here
[15:09] {munky} u read a nice pllbk
[15:09] {munky} but.....
[15:09] {nemo} you're at 1:3, what do you want on a tight range day on the short side of a stock that travelled above R4 on daily pivot range?
[15:09] {nemo} If it holds under .50, and market stays weak, you might get a test of the whole
[15:12] {fish_49} out P on the trail
[15:13] {munky} well i took .40 long
[15:13] {munky} but its small
[15:13] {nemo} TMI
01[15:17] {@Threei}  careful
[15:17] {nemo} stop definitely .50 now
01[15:17] {@Threei}  if it's not a double b'ottom, there is a lot of downside
[15:17] {nemo} actually, resistance ins now below
[15:20] {munky} took stop
[15:21] {nemo} stop to .46
[15:21] {nemo} sayonara
[15:21] {nemo} watch be ticked out by .02
[15:22] {dino} ave spike
[15:24] {dino} avg i mean
[15:24] {munky} well well
[15:24] {munky} .58
[15:25] {munky} 72 looks better, not in just watchin
01[15:28] {@Threei} Short Setup: C  .35 break
01[15:28] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
[15:34] {dptl} see ya tomorrow all :)
01[15:34] {@Threei}  Associated Press: Yatseniuk says Crimea will remain in Ukraine
01[15:34] {@Threei}  Putin: I'll take that bet
01[15:34] {@Threei}  take care dp
06[15:42] * @Threei hits C over the head with 2x4
[15:42] {fish_49} make it a 6x6
[15:43] {nemo} just kneecap the SOB
01[15:43] {@Threei}  no... 2x4 is a casual weapon; 6x6 will make me a suspect in assault on major US bank
[15:43] {nemo} finnies might come in here
[15:43] {fish_49} 6x6 heavy for old people  I dont want you to get hurt in the process
[15:44] {nemo} SPY only 67 million
06[15:44] * @Threei weighs 6x6 in his hand and questioningly looks at fish
[15:44] {goinshort} Thanks all - cya tomorrow !
01[15:44] {@Threei}  take care gs
[15:44] {fish_49} later GS
[15:45] {dino} calling it a day, thx for ideas, gn
01[15:45] {@Threei}  take care dino
[15:46] {mojo1} one question vad, when u call .35 break r u taking .34 or .35?
[15:47] {nemo} when he sees a T&S break .35
01[15:47] {@Threei}  hitting sell as soon as .35 is broken and prints go off at .34
01[15:47] {@Threei}  do read those instructions I linked couple days ago
01[15:47] {@Threei}  it's all in there
[15:47] {mojo1} so usually .34
[15:47] {nemo} .62 range
01[15:48] {@Threei}  I know you said you can't read... but I can't either, and yet I managed to write it
[15:48] {mojo1} lol
01[15:49] {@Threei}  and believe me... I find not being able to read is more often to my benefit than to disadvantage
[15:54] {fish_49} come on C  I have to P
01[15:54] {@Threei}  lol
[15:54] {fish_49} out
[15:54] {fish_49} damn
[15:55] {fish_49} see ya tomorrow
01[15:55] {@Threei}  yes
[15:55] {fish_49} if I wake up
01[15:55] {@Threei}  let's have a better day
01[15:55] {@Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow

Tuesday, March 4, 2014

March 04 2014

Slowish day as market gapped and stalled. Profitable though, especially after the midday lunacy when things sold off on bogus reason of Russia's missile test. Gave us a few long entries when panicking sellers realized it was nothing out of ordinary and planned well in advance of today's crisis.

Session Time: Tue Mar 04 00:00:00 2014
[08:07] {thomcbell} GM
01[08:49] {@Threei}  morning thom
[08:53] {nemo} Where's that foreign affairs expert, ese?
01[08:53] {@Threei}  why, what question do you have for him?
[08:55] {nemo} none...we were having a long conversation about Ukraine and Crimea last night...I didn't know, Kruschev basically gave Crimea to Ukraine...and it was Tartars first before Stalin moved them...sheesh, "invading" Ukraine, would be like us invading California
01[08:55] {@Threei}  you should have asked me
01[08:56] {@Threei}  in 1954 Crimea was tranferred to Ukraine
[08:56] {nemo} It's easier over booze
[08:56] {fish_49} Invade California?  Not a bad Idea  Convert them to Conservatives
01[08:56] {@Threei}  lol
[08:56] {nemo} Nah, I was thinking nuke it
01[08:56] {@Threei}  but that's half of the story
[08:56] {fish_49} so am I reading this right  Putin will leave them alone?
[08:56] {nemo} yeah, 4 bottles of wine, 1 bottle cognac, 1 bottle rum
01[08:56] {@Threei}  there were many land resdistributions
01[08:57] {@Threei}  when USSR was dismantled, broders were settled
01[08:57] {@Threei}  borders too
01[08:58] {@Threei}  and in 1994 in Budapest an agreement was signed, according to which Ukraine gave up its nukes, in exchange US, UK and Russia guaranteed it its territorial integrity
01[08:58] {@Threei}  Russia leased naval base territory in Crimea, in exchange for 30% discount for natural gas
01[08:59] {@Threei}  This lease is active to 2042 per last signed agreement
[08:59] {dino} gm
01[08:59] {@Threei}  So no, by all the legal framework Crimea is Ukrainian
01[08:59] {@Threei}  dino :)
[08:59] {fish_49} so the port and the nat gas is the issue?
[09:00] {nemo} yeah, but culturally and strategically, it's always been a part of the Russian equation
01[09:00] {@Threei}  not at all
01[09:00] {@Threei}  nothihg is an issue but this:
01[09:00] {@Threei}  Putin can't and won't allow Ukraine as a NATO member
[09:00] {nemo} nope
[09:01] {nemo} he ain't having nato right up against his western flank
01[09:01] {@Threei}  as soon as this threat reappeared after this revolution puvoting Ukraine toward west, he made this move
01[09:01] {@Threei}  prepared long ago btw
01[09:01] {@Threei}  Nemo, yes, it was a part of Russia for good couple centuries
01[09:01] {@Threei}  so what?
01[09:02] {@Threei}  Some of Kuban land was part of Ukraine
01[09:02] {@Threei}  and was transfered to Russia during soviet times
[09:02] {nemo} well, you get all these modern foreign affairs experts commenting with little historical context
01[09:02] {@Threei}  you don't go back in history and decide what you redistribute
01[09:02] {@Threei}  ah yes
[09:02] {nemo} oh, and who have been behind the uprising:  the Maidan
01[09:02] {@Threei}  that I see left and right
01[09:03] {@Threei}  well, here is breaking news
01[09:03] {@Threei}  Maidan doesn't know who Maidan is, and who is behind it
01[09:03] {@Threei}  it's a hirrific mish m,esh of very different forces
[09:03] {nemo} bunch of Neo-Nazi's...and the ersatz foreign affairs experts are supporting them?
01[09:04] {@Threei}  they got united for a short while by common enemy
01[09:04] {@Threei}  no...
01[09:04] {@Threei}  there are neo nazis
01[09:04] {@Threei}  but it's not the whole maidan, and not even majotiry
01[09:04] {@Threei}  it's one of the most organized parts of it, sure
01[09:05] {@Threei}  most on Maidan were brought there by sheer and pure desire to get rid of the bandits that ruled the country
01[09:05] {@Threei}  and most are as unhappy with new govt as they were with old one
01[09:05] {@Threei}  and voice it out quite loudly
01[09:06] {@Threei}  they want new election
01[09:06] {@Threei}  and until that happens, you don't know who came out victorious in the end
01[09:06] {@Threei}  Labeling whole movement as nazus is Russian propaganda
01[09:07] {@Threei}  and their justification for intervention
[09:08] {nemo} I'm sure there are enough lies on both sides to go around
01[09:10] {@Threei}  oh and if we are to return to historic boreders as they were at some point in the past, choosing and picking what someone wants... how about returning Alaska to Russia?
01[09:10] {@Threei}  how is it different from Crimea?
[09:10] {nemo} or California to Mexico
[09:10] {nemo} Louisiana purchase to France
01[09:10] {@Threei}  many in Russia consider it unfair that Alaska now belongs to USA
01[09:11] {@Threei}  still want to open that door by admitting that yes, Russia has rights to Crimea?
[09:12] {nemo} who me?  No, I'm just saying there is a much longer historical entanglement then the EFA experts understand
[09:12] {_illyakuryakin} Its their Cabo San Lucas ...right?
01[09:13] {@Threei}  I haven't watched Putin's press conference in full, but from the lines I read, I don't know why everyone decided it's over
01[09:13] {@Threei}  Putin says for now no need to use military force in Crimea, but Russia has option to do so
01[09:13] {@Threei}  sure no need, it's taken over with no single shot
01[09:13] {@Threei}  Putin: 'As you know the markets were quite nervous before the situation in Ukraine, it is connected to the policy of the USA'
01[09:14] {@Threei}  Russia will 'of course' provide aid to Ukraine's southern region of Crimea, Putin says
01[09:14] {@Threei}  yup, by making them Russian citizens
01[09:14] {@Threei}  Russia's President Putin says there has been an anti-constitutional coup in the Ukraine, a military seizure of power
01[09:14] {@Threei}  etc
01[09:15] {@Threei}  on, and this gem:
01[09:15] {@Threei}  Putin says he hopes Russia won't have to use force in eastern Ukraine
01[09:15] {@Threei}  how quickly world forgot Stalin-speak
01[09:15] {@Threei}  this above is not a reassurance, it's a threat
[09:17] {munky} morn
01[09:17] {@Threei}  munky :)
01[09:17] {@Threei}  Russian President Vladimir Putin, at a press conference in Moscow today, didn't rule out further military intervention in Ukraine to carry out what he described as a humanitarian mission to protect Ukraine's millions of ethnic Russians.
01[09:17] {@Threei}  lol
01[09:18] {@Threei}  How do you say in Putian "no one shoots at us but as soon as they start.."
01[09:18] {@Threei}  here: Putin said, however, that “there is no reason yet” to use military force.
01[09:19] {@Threei}  read this nemo:
01[09:19] {@Threei}  http://www.kyivpost.com/content/politics/putin-doesnt-rule-out-deeper-military-intervention-in-ukraine-338350.html
[09:19] {fish_49} Wished Ukraine had large oil reserves
01[09:20] {@Threei}  lol
[09:20] {fish_49} think about it
01[09:20] {@Threei}  yup
[09:20] {fish_49} the USA would not let Iraq Invae Kuwait..  Why would we let Putin invade Ukraine?
01[09:20] {@Threei}  one thing is for sure: when Putin says something is red line for him, he follows through
[09:22] {goinshort} gm all!
01[09:22] {@Threei}  gs :)
[09:25] {nemo} http://goo.gl/ZqOGQy
01[09:30] {@Threei} Long Setup:  EBAY  59 break
01[09:30] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
[09:32] {mojo1} morning
01[09:32] {@Threei}  mojo :)
[09:32] {ese} morning
[09:32] {munky} fb clubbed
01[09:32] {@Threei}  ese :)
01[09:33] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[09:33] {ese} out KMX .88 +.89
[09:33] {ese} 600shs
01[09:33] {@Threei}  wtg
[09:33] {ese} makes up for the -.19 yesterday
01[09:34] {@Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .90 break
01[09:34] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
01[09:35] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[09:37] {dino} gj ese
01[09:37] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .40 break
01[09:37] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:38] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:38] {@Threei}  wow, 3 in a row
01[09:40] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .15 break0 break
01[09:40] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
[09:40] {ese} tks dino
01[09:41] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:43] {@Threei} Long Setup:  EBAY  .90 break
01[09:43] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[09:44] {@Threei}  (US) Preview: Mar IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism expected at 10:00 ET (15:00 GMT)- Consensus expectations: 45.0e v 44.9 prior
01[09:45] {@Threei}  (US) Feb ISM New York: 57.0 v 64.4 prior
[09:45] {dino} ire hl l .89 stop lod brk
[09:46] {fish_49} still valid?  didnt fill
01[09:46] {@Threei}  if pullas back before hitting 1:1, yes
01[09:47] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:47] {fish_49} u filled?
01[09:47] {@Threei}  no
01[09:47] {@Threei}  .93 was the only chance, and mine was .92
[09:50] {nemo} having internet problems
01[09:51] {@Threei}  ugh EBAY
[09:51] {dino} didn't you just switch isp nemo?
[09:52] {nemo} yeah, yesterday...unplugged my father's tv box by accident, and things went fritzy
01[09:52] {@Threei} Long Setup:  YHOO  .10 break
01[09:52] {@Threei}  If holds  39
01[09:54] {@Threei}  frkin EBAY 1:3
01[09:55] {@Threei}  anyone caught it?
[09:55] {fish_49} 0
01[09:55] {@Threei}  didn't think so
01[09:55] {@Threei}  .90 was a good dam... when broke, torrent was fast and furious
01[09:56] {@Threei}  half out YHOO
[09:58] {thomcbell} nice cup on mpel 1 minute here
01[09:58] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) MAR IBD/TIPP ECONOMIC OPTIMISM: 45.1 V 45.3E
01[10:00] {@Threei}  1/4 more out
01[10:01] {@Threei}  1:2
[10:04] {thomcbell} dang possible short setup here
01[10:04] {@Threei}  I am very tempted to ask on what stock
[10:07] {nemo} weird having access problems
[10:07] {nemo} can get this room, twitter feed, but not much else
01[10:08] {@Threei}  they are throtting you
[10:08] {nemo} shouldn't be
[10:08] {dino} ire to .19
01[10:08] {@Threei}  and Puting shouldn't be invading Crimea... so what's your point?
[10:09] {dino} cats and dogs living together
[10:10] {fish_49} nemo did you do a speed test?  what kind of bandwidth are you getting?
[10:10] {nemo} was 55 mbs
[10:10] {dino} ire to .29
01[10:10] {@Threei}  here is bunny-related joke for you nemo: https://fbcdn-sphotos-f-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-frc3/t1/1932477_889030987793022_1018271454_n.jpg
[10:11] {dino} out ire .32, +.43
[10:11] {fish_49} 55 mbs is very fast you must be paying an arm and leg to get that speed
[10:11] {RonS} took ire .95 to .35 +.40  thanks dino
[10:11] {dino} np, gj
01[10:14] {@Threei} Short Setup: EBAY  59 break
01[10:14] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[10:15] {@Threei}  Rumsfeld: Obama is failing to lead on Ukraine crisis
01[10:15] {@Threei}  Obama: why, I will lead... I just need to find the behind
[10:20] {dino} these are not my type of day, gap up big and sit
[10:20] {dino} all i can do to sit and wait
01[10:24] {@Threei}  ok... in EBAY
01[10:24] {@Threei}  somewhat weird trigger
01[10:25] {@Threei}  and weird trading
[10:27] {fish_49} out
01[10:28] {@Threei}  no go
01[10:35] {@Threei}  YHOO should be close to the top
[10:36] {fish_49} WMT
[10:36] {dino} xlrn smr s .25 hooker
01[10:38] {@Threei} Short Setup: YHOO  .60 break
01[10:38] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
[10:41] {RonS} big volume into bbry
01[10:41] {@Threei}  BBRY Hearing recent strength attributed to circulation of tech blog reports that Blackberry's QNX powers Apple's Carplay product
01[10:41] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:45] {@Threei} Short Setup: MCD  .95 break
01[10:46] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
[10:49] {dino} opht spikey
[10:53] {munky} vad any fb read?
01[10:53] {@Threei}  nothing really definitive
[10:54] {RonS} that is fb in a nutshell...
01[10:54] {@Threei}  but keeping an eye on it
[10:55] {munky} i like it long, not here exactly, but think it wants up
01[10:56] {@Threei}  .40 is a trigger but there is no good placer for a tight stop
[10:56] {fish_49} i was just typing that
[10:57] {munky} size down
[10:57] {fish_49} but I would say place not placer
01[10:57] {@Threei}  that's because you unlike me can type
[10:57] {fish_49} lol
01[10:58] {@Threei}  maybe .30 can work as support if consolidates for a min or two more
[11:00] {fish_49} munky did you take the .40 break?  u had 1:1
[11:00] {fish_49} someone step on Big Mac
01[11:01] {@Threei}  seriously, I've no idea where commentators and market as a whole got the idea that tension eases. If anything, Putin said he intends to continue, he may not limit to Crimea but move on Eastern Ukraine as well, and everyone is an idiot and can't stop him
[11:02] {munky} yes
[11:02] {munky} partialed .50
[11:02] {munky} half left
[11:02] {munky} thinkin target .63
[11:02] {dino} 3i, thats how i read it
[11:02] {dino} he's not budging
01[11:03] {@Threei}  not in the least
01[11:03] {@Threei}  and threatens more
[11:03] {fish_49} so lets get short everything and no stop
01[11:03] {@Threei}  lol
[11:03] {munky} out .63
[11:03] {munky} ty munky, er um vad
[11:03] {munky} lol
01[11:04] {@Threei}  who mixed weed in his bananas?
[11:05] {_illyakuryakin} a smugler?
[11:08] {_illyakuryakin} metals retreat as tension eases ...right?
[11:08] {RonS} ire near lod
01[11:08] {@Threei}  precious metals you mean?
[11:08] {_illyakuryakin} yes
01[11:08] {@Threei}  yup
01[11:09] {@Threei}  "safe haven"
[11:09] {_illyakuryakin} SLV breaks 20 = no war
[11:09] {_illyakuryakin} for now...
[11:10] {_illyakuryakin} me thinks
[11:13] {dino} ire hl l .76
[11:27] {ese} looks like I should have partialed kmx
[11:29] {nemo} looks like I'm down until Thursday
[11:29] {fish_49} y
01[11:30] {@Threei}  how come nemo?
[11:30] {fish_49} ese  kmx?  but who knew Putin was gonna break weak  so easy?  you had know way of knowing
[11:30] {nemo} frickin' modem from my "new" ISP already on the fritz
01[11:31] {@Threei}  oh
01[11:31] {@Threei}  fish, you haven't completed the sentence
01[11:31] {@Threei}  full version:
01[11:31] {@Threei}  but who knew Putin was gonna break weak Western spine so easy
[11:31] {fish_49} messing with ese  he indicates above he should have stayed in KMX  longer
[11:31] {fish_49} ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
[11:32] {fish_49} lol
[11:32] {fish_49} your right Vad
[11:33] {RonS} ese calls Putin:  hey Vlad baby, back off...i've got a kmx position on...
[11:34] {fish_49} Wish ese can call Vlad and ask him to surround the McDonalds
[11:34] {RonS} Putin:  ...anything for you, drummer boy...
[11:34] {fish_49} so ese and putin are like Kim Jung Un and Denis Rodman?
[11:35] {_illyakuryakin} 3i, cartilage does not break...it bends.
01[11:35] {@Threei}  lol ilya
[11:37] {ese} hey fish.....normally on shorter plays i will go ½ then out a another quarter then full.....
[11:37] {fish_49} yea  You kept that over night  right?
[11:38] {ese} you guys were on me about him yesterday calling him stupid....the financial markets sold off Russian currency like crazy.....what'd they finally loose a trillion or so.....that was a no brainer
[11:38] {ese} hopefully he needed that to pay off Sochi......dumb ass
[11:39] {ese} ya...kept it overnight.....based on a strong daily chart cup and handle
[11:40] {ese} and breaking above some ma's
[11:41] {ese} calculated guess.....it could have gone the other way......i figured maybe 2bills with 600 shs...another learning experience
[11:43] {dino} maybe putin was short going into that
01[11:45] {@Threei}  ese... you seem to use terms evil and stupid interchangably
01[11:45] {@Threei}  no one argued against him being evil
01[11:46] {@Threei}  but stupid? not in the least
01[11:46] {@Threei}  now... he exports oil, right?
01[11:46] {@Threei}  and whole country in fact lives off of that
01[11:47] {@Threei}  so, how do you think rouble selloff impacted his economy, negatively or positively?
01[11:47] {@Threei}  tell me again how he is stupid
[11:47] {munky} im confused??
[11:47] {fish_49} de-valued his currency and gave him less international buying power
01[11:48] {@Threei}  he is and EXPORTER
01[11:48] {@Threei}  an
[11:48] {_illyakuryakin} oil goes up
01[11:48] {@Threei}  exporting countries benefit from weak currency
[11:48] {dino} dhe boosted price of his oil
[11:48] {dino} exactly
01[11:48] {@Threei}  and yes, conflict lifted the price of oil
01[11:49] {@Threei}  double win
[11:49] {dino} i also think he had huge shorts placed on markets, he knew when he was invading, so why not
[11:51] {fish_49} who buys the largest share of Russian Oil?
[11:51] {dino} europe
[11:52] {dino} as with natty gas
01[11:52] {@Threei}  now ese... think Putin is burdened by cost of Olympics very much?
[11:52] {RonS} President Obama: 'We believe the Ukrainian people should be able to decide their own future'...(but US citizens can screw themselves...they must do as I say)...
01[11:52] {@Threei}  how much do you think Russia made by selling oil in 2013?
01[11:53] {@Threei}  $415 billion
[11:54] {RonS} and how about natty?
01[11:55] {@Threei}  don't know
[11:55] {fish_49} Ukraine has their own Nat Gas  right?
[11:55] {_illyakuryakin} its flared
01[11:55] {@Threei}  can find it but even that number tells you how he just doesn't care about measly 50 b
01[11:55] {@Threei}  half of which was stolen anyway
01[11:55] {@Threei}  no fish
01[11:55] {@Threei}  coal, ire
[11:56] {dino} russian pipelines carry russian gas thru ukraine to europe, about 40% of europe gas needs
[11:56] {_illyakuryakin} hmmm
[11:56] {dino} fracking is going to start looking prettyu good to europeans soon
[11:56] {fish_49} oh  My  so my statement earlier is not far off.  They dont have their own Oil but the pipes on their land control  a huge share
01[11:57] {@Threei}  well, what is it they control?
01[11:57] {@Threei}  they are paid for use of the land
[11:58] {fish_49} but if they dont like the price given for land rights  they are in control
[11:58] {dino} past 3 years with disputes, russia simply cut off gas supply
01[11:59] {@Threei}  they really are not fish
01[11:59] {@Threei}  they need that gas
01[12:00] {@Threei}  they demand more than russia is willing to pay, russia shrugs and closes supply
[12:00] {dino} fish, its the golden rule w/russia, "whoever has the gold (gas) rules
[12:00] {fish_49} yea  I have no clue .. I should pay closer attention to politics in that region.  
01[12:00] {@Threei}  next thing you know, Ukraine and half of Eutope freezes
[12:00] {dino} bingo!!!!
01[12:00] {@Threei}  anfd guess who Europe blames?
01[12:00] {@Threei}  Ukraine, for demanding unreasonable payment
[12:00] {fish_49} Ukraine?
[12:00] {dino} watch for usa to start granting natty gas export permits for europe
[12:01] {dino} drill baby drill
[12:04] {ese} am gone....cya tomorrow
01[12:04] {@Threei}  take care ese
[12:04] {dino} cya
[12:08] {RonS} dino, isn't the restriction only oil...natty exports waiting for two lng facilities to be completed?
[12:10] {dino} govt has restricted it to 2, many waiting
[12:13] {dino} i froze the ire
01[12:16] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .65 break
01[12:17] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
01[12:31] {@Threei}  1:1
01[12:47] {@Threei}  yup, they are scared:
01[12:47] {@Threei}  (RU) Russia Foreign Ministry: Any sanctions imposed by the US on Russia would trigger a response, and not necessarily a symmetric response
[12:48] {thomcbell} wow spwr trying to break out but already up so much probably spikes and fails
01[12:48] {@Threei}  (UR) US Sec State Kerry: Russia has worked hard to create a pretext for invading the Ukraine; US is not looking for a major confrontation with Russia
[12:51] {dino} russia basically just said "f u"
01[12:52] {@Threei}  you mean reiterated
[12:52] {fish_49} so war with words for awhile
01[12:52] {@Threei}  they don't get it... both EU and US current clowns
01[12:52] {@Threei}  here is simple truth:
[12:53] {dino} russia gets it. troops are still in ukraine
01[12:53] {@Threei}  for Putin, Ukraine as a member of NATO is unacceptable. Period
[12:53] {dino} they know obummer doesn't have any balls
01[12:53] {@Threei}  there is no way he agrees to that, no way no how
[12:53] {fish_49} yea  thats  what I was gonna ask  are there any reports of actually seeing the troops being pulled back?
01[12:54] {@Threei}  there is no any depth he won't go to to prevent that
01[12:54] {@Threei}  not at all fish
01[12:54] {@Threei}  Crimea is effectively occupied
[12:54] {fish_49} the last report I watched was many drunk soldiers
[12:55] {fish_49} we should be buying stock in Vodka  today as they celebrate
01[12:55] {@Threei}  if he has to break Ukraine by two parts to prevent that outcome, he will do it
[12:55] {dino} all i saw was a cease to war games near border, troops still in crimea
01[12:55] {@Threei}  and he has means to do it
01[12:55] {@Threei}  he won't have to start all-out war to achieve that
01[12:56] {@Threei}  there are old fault lines in Ukraine that can be exploited to achieve the civil war and breakdown
01[12:56] {@Threei}  cultural, ethnic, language, historic
[12:56] {fish_49} re-draw map?
[12:57] {dino} back o the ussr
[12:57] {fish_49} That song will come back?
[12:58] {dino} would have to think jeb is taking a serious look at this
01[13:08] {@Threei}  WH Press Secretary: Considering multiple violation of international law by Russia, we made a difficult decision to unfollow Russia on Twitter
[13:10] {_illyakuryakin} they still have the red pohone tho...
[13:10] {_illyakuryakin} phone
[13:11] {dino} russia to obummer, "go ahead, i double dog dare ya"
[13:11] {_illyakuryakin} poker vs chess
[13:12] {fish_49} whats in the Obummer hand?  pair of 3's?
[13:13] {_illyakuryakin} kangaroo streit
[13:14] {fish_49} MCD took out some stops?
01[13:15] {@Threei}  ?
01[13:15] {@Threei}  it neverf got out of the range
[13:15] {fish_49} I see a wick reaching up to .99
01[13:20] {@Threei}  yes... and stop is...?
[13:20] {fish_49} .05
[13:20] {fish_49} at least mine is
01[13:21] {@Threei}  so how .99 matters?
[13:21] {fish_49} it don't
[13:21] {fish_49} just commented on that fast wick
01[13:22] {@Threei}  oh
01[13:22] {@Threei}  I connected it with "taking out stops"
[13:22] {fish_49} yes
01[13:22] {@Threei}  I should make less connections
06[13:22] * @Threei drops twitter
[13:22] {fish_49} flash wicks  like that  take out stops
[13:23] {fish_49} twtr bounced off support since the POTUS not following The Putin's
01[13:26] {@Threei}  I am losing interest in MCD
01[13:27] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .80 break hl
01[13:27] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[13:28] {@Threei}  good chart, hlis just ecause of the wrong time of the day
[13:28] {dino} hart spike
[13:29] {_illyakuryakin} this time of the day it's coiling
[13:34] {dino} snhy drop
[13:34] {mojo1} look at ebay vad
01[13:35] {@Threei}  looks dead
[13:36] {mojo1} ok
01[13:36] {@Threei}  out MCD .93
[13:42] {fish_49} every chart I look at seems to be the same
[13:42] {nathan} g afernoon
[13:42] {fish_49} Hello Mr Nat
01[13:42] {@Threei}  nathan :)
[13:43] {nathan} Hi Mr Fish
[13:43] {nathan} how was the morning?
[13:43] {dino} hey nat
[13:43] {dino} profittable but slow for me
01[13:43] {@Threei}  slooooow
[13:44] {fish_49} Big Gap up and Base
[13:44] {fish_49} Military Days we called it  Hurry up and wait
[13:45] {fish_49} MCD looks like it wants to pop
[13:45] {fish_49} at this point  keep original stop ?
[13:46] {thomcbell} jks just took off
01[13:46] {@Threei}  I have no read on it anymore
[13:47] {thomcbell} or took off more i should say
01[13:47] {@Threei}  closed it at .93
[13:47] {nathan} where's nemo today?
01[13:47] {@Threei}  connection problem
[13:47] {nathan} day off?
[13:47] {nathan} ah ok
01[13:47] {@Threei}  he changes ISP from bad to worse
[13:48] {fish_49} his bunny broke his internet  so he is in and out
[13:48] {nathan} lol
01[13:48] {@Threei}  and yes, bunny chewed through the wire
01[13:48] {@Threei}  which was a total surprise since nemo thought he had wireless internet
[13:48] {fish_49} lol
01[13:48] {@Threei}  wow
01[13:49] {@Threei}  (RU) Russia has test fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) - press
[13:49] {nathan} hey what's going on?
01[13:49] {@Threei}  Putin refreshed his short
01[13:50] {@Threei}  idiocy
[13:50] {fish_49} US promised 1 billion loan to Ukraine
01[13:50] {@Threei}  why do they sell on that?
01[13:50] {@Threei}  do they really think Russia starts WW3?
[13:51] {fish_49} no  the missle had the Pithovirus on it.  it was being preserved in Siberia
[13:51] {dino} tza hl l .50
[13:51] {fish_49} I'm starting that rumor  so I can get out of my MCD trade
01[13:51] {@Threei}  I withdraw my refrain "the world is full of idiots" and replace it with "the world is overfilled with idiots"
[13:52] {dino} ire stop to .90
01[13:53] {@Threei} Long Setup:  SPY  .35 break
01[13:53] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
01[13:54] {@Threei}  you covered fish?
[13:54] {fish_49} just did
[13:54] {fish_49} .93
[13:55] {fish_49} damn  I was being greedy
01[13:55] {@Threei}  good, IMO
[13:55] {dino} gj
01[13:55] {@Threei}  trade lost drive
[13:55] {fish_49} got some at .92  so I covered comms
01[13:55] {@Threei}  1:1
[13:58] {fish_49} Cells infected with Pithovirus, a 30,000-year-old virus recovered from the Siberian permafrost
01[13:59] {@Threei}  here is what happened to MCD trade:
01[13:59] {@Threei}  And enterprises of great pith and moment
01[13:59] {@Threei}  With this regard their currents turn awry,
01[13:59] {@Threei}  And lose the name of action. - Soft you now!
01[13:59] {@Threei}  it also somehow is connected to Pithovirus
[14:00] {dino} and flying pigs too, right?
01[14:00] {@Threei}  well, as far as MCD is conerned, it's rather cows?
[14:00] {fish_49} Can we inject Pithovirus in Big Macs?  I want to start that rumor
[14:01] {nathan} watching NTAP
[14:04] {dino} ire out .91, +.15
[14:04] {fish_49} were you long?
[14:05] {dino} y
[14:05] {dino} from .76
01[14:09] {@Threei} Long Setup:  NTAP  .15 break
01[14:09] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
01[14:09] {@Threei}  in case you wanted my read on it
[14:09] {dino} fmi drop
[14:10] {nathan} you like it Vad?
01[14:10] {@Threei}  wouldn't call it if I didn't :)
[14:10] {nathan} lol
01[14:10] {@Threei}  never called any girl I didn't like
01[14:10] {@Threei}  errr, stock
[14:11] {nathan} :-)
[14:11] {fish_49} you liked Larissa?
[14:11] {fish_49} lol
06[14:12] * @Threei makes amental note to keep fish away from the wife when fish visits Victoria. He names names
[14:12] {dino} pita trade. finally covered xlrn .35, +.90
[14:12] {fish_49} lol
[14:12] {fish_49} lol
[14:13] {fish_49} I didnt like her  she complained about my screen name
[14:13] {fish_49} it was all caps  and it drove her crazy  lol
[14:13] {thomcbell} yhoo 39.50 long break
01[14:18] {@Threei}  - Follow up 14:10ET: Putin press Secretary Peskov: Russia plans all missile tests well in advance
01[14:18] {@Threei}  heh
[14:18] {fish_49} He learned that from Kim Jung Un
[14:19] {thomcbell} this is comedy
01[14:22] {@Threei}  guess who is laughing the loudest
[14:22] {fish_49} Sarah Palin?  lol
01[14:23] {@Threei}  she and Romney are second loudest
01[14:23] {@Threei}  Putin is still first
[14:23] {_illyakuryakin} does he laugh?
01[14:24] {@Threei}  hmmm
01[14:24] {@Threei}  good question
01[14:24] {@Threei}  giggles I think
01[14:24] {@Threei}  and smirks
[14:25] {_illyakuryakin} yea
[14:28] {_illyakuryakin} cunning humility
[14:29] {fish_49} I see a pic of Putin smiling  and the caption at bottom says  "When he smiles, You know somebody is dying horribly"
01[14:30] {@Threei}  lol
01[14:30] {@Threei}  here market comes back
01[14:31] {@Threei}  finalkly realizing that line meant zilch
[14:34] {nathan} what a pain!
[14:35] {dino} tza to .57
[14:37] {fish_49} markets are in extended lunch?
[14:39] {munky} fwiw, i think mkts will rock into bell
[14:39] {munky} if so, i dont want to be short
[14:39] {fish_49} ever seen a tall munky?
[14:39] {munky} now this is subjrct to change if it tanks
01[14:39] {@Threei}  DoD says they were not surprised by missile test which was planned in avdance
[14:39] {dino} tza out .60, +.10
01[14:40] {@Threei}  so why these imbeciles sold off in panic?
01[14:40] {@Threei}  did they also hide under the desks?
[14:40] {dino} because most did not know it was planned
01[14:41] {@Threei}  yeah but what did they think, Russia started ww3?
[14:41] {munky} hey, anyone know tza counterpart? the bull trust x3
01[14:41] {@Threei}  TNA
[14:41] {fish_49} cousin  TNA
[14:41] {dino} posturing 3i
01[14:41] {@Threei}  sure
[14:41] {dino} tna munk
[14:42] {munky} ty both
01[14:43] {@Threei}  both?
01[14:43] {@Threei}  3 answered
01[14:43] {@Threei}  who exactly have you decided not to thank?
[14:44] {munky} tza
[14:44] {dino} me i guess
[14:45] {thomcbell} i wonder what happened to scty here
[14:45] {munky} ttttaztzabbbbb
[14:47] {munky} dammit
[14:47] {munky} wrong keypad lol
01[14:48] {@Threei}  hmmm... I guess this is very good practice to keep a separate keyboard for porn sites
[14:48] {nathan} lol
01[14:49] {@Threei}  but I have to say, those are weird nicknames they use over there
01[14:53] {@Threei}  1:1
01[14:53] {@Threei}  took its sweet time, eh?
[14:54] {nathan} so long for me
[14:54] {nathan} almost rinsed :-)
01[14:54] {@Threei}  yeah, was on the verge of stopping out
01[14:55] {@Threei}  anyway, we got two winning trades out of this lunacy
01[14:55] {@Threei}  which is always a pleasure
[14:55] {nathan} oh yeah
01[14:55] {@Threei}  I like making money on lunatics
[14:57] {nathan} JPM trading on near HoD
01[15:00] {@Threei}  The Ukrainian flag is being proudly flown on Parliament Hill in Ottawa today to demonstrate our solidarity with the people of Ukraine.
01[15:00] {@Threei}  Putin: oops... I better back off...
01[15:02] {@Threei} Long Setup:  EBAY  59 break
01[15:02] {@Threei}  If holds  .95
01[15:02] {@Threei}  just a scalp most likely
01[15:03] {@Threei}  scalp type I
01[15:08] {@Threei}  Senior US official: Russia's test launch was 'on the books for some time' prior to Ukraine crisis
01[15:08] {@Threei}  lol
[15:13] {nathan} i got filled at 59,005
[15:14] {nathan} scratching the .01
01[15:16] {@Threei}  {.01} could you scratch just above the right shoulder blade plese?
[15:17] {goinshort} wow ebay upticked !!!
01[15:17] {@Threei}  it iksploded
[15:17] {dino} spike
01[15:17] {@Threei}  (yes, that's how you spell it)
[15:17] {goinshort} lol
[15:18] {nathan} lol
[15:19] {goinshort} next time it iksplodes i'm taking my 10 bucks
[15:19] {nathan} c'mon i saw prints  at .04
[15:19] {goinshort} ok i'll sell to you
[15:20] {nathan} lol
[15:27] {dino} nsm spike
[15:37] {nemo} still boring
[15:38] {nemo} ?
01[15:38] {@Threei}  pretty much
01[15:38] {@Threei}  but market reversed fully from that idiotic drop
[15:38] {nemo} bull market
[15:38] {nemo} well, consolidating bull anyway
[15:39] {nathan} well time to go
[15:40] {nathan} have a nice evening
[15:40] {nathan} c u tomorrow
01[15:40] {@Threei}  you too nathan
01[15:42] {@Threei}  here it comes gs
[15:42] {goinshort} cya all tomorrow
01[15:42] {@Threei}  iksplozhion
[15:43] {munky} ecksplufion
01[15:43] {@Threei}  played it with ECN rebatwe on two sides
01[15:43] {@Threei}  bought bid 59, sold offer .06, large shares
[15:43] {munky} i took .o4 and waiting .o9
[15:43] {munky} larger shares here
01[15:44] {@Threei}  hope you squeezed soemthing out of it, gs... see ya tomorrow
[15:44] {fish_49} what were ya trading  I was not here
01[15:44] {@Threei}  ok... let's get munky out now
[15:44] {fish_49} ok  take care  see ya tomorrow
01[15:44] {@Threei}  EBAY, fish
[15:44] {fish_49} k
[15:44] {munky} yea
[15:44] {munky} please
01[15:44] {@Threei}  scalp type I
[15:44] {munky} bye fish
[15:45] {goinshort} got 20 shorted it got 30 and quit - crazy day
[15:45] {goinshort} later
01[15:45] {@Threei}  I didn't get it but that's OK
01[15:45] {@Threei}  I don't get a lot of things
[15:45] {munky} u out
01[15:46] {@Threei}  [15:43] {@Threei} bought bid 59, sold offer .06, large shares
[15:46] {munky} i thunk about .08
[15:46] {munky} ah
[15:46] {munky} im in 59 so i can blow it out
01[15:50] {@Threei}  here it comes again
[15:53] {dino} calling it a day, slow one, but good one 4 for 4
01[15:54] {@Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
01[15:54] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow