Mar 26 2015

1:7 as I post this. Beautiful reversal setup on overstretched capitulation selloff

And, to add:

Session Time: Thu Mar 26 00:00:00 2015
[09:06] {dino} gm
01[09:07] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:09] {RonS} gm...sndk buzzsawed
01[09:10] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:10] {cosmo} hmm...dumper
01[09:22] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -CNAT +48% (announced successful Phase 2 top-line results from NAFLD/NASH clinical trial of Emricasan)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -FRED +12% (earnings)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -FIVE +8% (earnings)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -RHT +5% (earnings)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -ACN +3.3% (earnings)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -NLST -20% (lost decisive legal case against Diablo Tech)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -SNDK -15% (cut Q1 Rev guidance)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -SCMP -14% (registered shares for selling holders of indeterminate amount)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -NVAX -9% (priced 24.1M shares at $7.25/shr)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -VG -8% (negative Cramer commentary/aquisition)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -WGO -6.5% (earnings)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -EXAS -4.6% (negative broker commentary)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -LULU -4.3% (earnings)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -PSUN -4% (earnings)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -KITE -3.5% (earnings)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -GTN -3.5% (priced 12M shares at $13/shr)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -DAL -2.3% (higher oil prices and Germanwings crash weighing on space)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -GWR -2.3% (guidance)
01[09:30] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .50 break
01[09:30] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:31] {@Threei}  valid agaiin
01[09:31] {@Threei}  too fast
01[09:31] {@Threei}  ok... in
01[09:31] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:32] {@Threei}  morning fingers warm-up
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .10 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  122
[09:34] {RonS} zts sm l .79
01[09:35] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:38] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .50 break
01[09:38] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[09:39] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:41] {dino} uri hl l .04
[09:42] {dino} added cnet puts
[09:42] {dino} cnat
01[09:43] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MCD  .70 breajk
[09:43] {dino} out uri .46, +.42
01[09:43] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[09:45] {@Threei}  *(US) MAR PRELIMINARY MARKIT SERVICES PMI: 58.6 V 57.0E
01[09:45] {@Threei}  TWTR Rosenblatt Securities Inc. Initiates TWTR with Buy, price target: $60
01[09:49] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:52] {RonS} out zts .34 +.55
01[09:52] {@Threei}  wtg
[09:52] {RonS} ty
01[09:58] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  122 break
01[09:58] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[10:01] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:09] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .95 break
01[10:09] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
[10:11] {dino} sndk hl l .14
01[10:13] {@Threei}  no go
[10:15] {dino} lod
[10:18] {RonS} crr gone pulp
[10:20] {dino} indeed
[10:20] {RonS} leave out the xy?  oxymoron:  Obama Administration has Approved Student Loan Forgiveness for qualified borrowers.
01[10:21] {@Threei}  heh
[10:21] {dino} nobody responsible for anything anymore
[10:22] {dino} so the students that paid get screwed
[10:22] {dino} and the ones that didn't borrow, screwed too
[10:24] {dino} sndk stop .89 -.25
[10:25] {dino} woner if obummer will grant forgiveness for bad trades?
01[10:25] {@Threei}  same as with motrgages before
[10:25] {dino} sure
01[10:26] {@Threei}  disciplined and responsible get screwed, reckless rewarded
01[10:26] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MCD  .50 break
[10:26] {dino} sure, you get penalized if you are responsible
[10:28] {cosmo} I know the feeling
01[10:33] {@Threei}  change to .40 break
01[10:33] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[10:33] {@Threei}  last change, to .30
01[10:36] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:36] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:37] {@Threei}  1:3
[10:37] {RonS} good one
01[10:38] {@Threei}  ty
[10:38] {dino} sndk hl l .01
01[10:38] {@Threei}  1:4
[10:41] {RonS} value added:  B of A downgrades sndk
[10:45] {dino} value added
[10:45] {dino} and timely too
[10:46] {dino} out sndk .60, +.59
[10:46] {RonS} gj
[10:46] {dino} ty
[10:52] {dino} sndk hl l .65
[10:53] {dino} damn, thought vwap break would send it up
[10:55] {dino} sndk stop -.25
[10:55] {dino} pia stock
[10:56] {RonS} pia?
01[10:59] {@Threei}  pain
01[10:59] {@Threei}  arse
01[10:59] {@Threei}  in
[11:01] {dino} rinsed
[11:05] {RonS} U.S. FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION VOTES UNANIMOUSLY TO DROP NEUSTAR INC AS PHONE NUMBER CONTRACTOR
[11:05] {dino} symbol?
[11:05] {RonS} nrs
[11:05] {RonS} nsr
01[11:07] {@Threei}  weird reaction
01[11:07] {@Threei}  or rather lack of it
[11:07] {RonS} started 3 weeks ago
01[11:08] {@Threei}  yeah
[11:09] {RonS} this guy is brilliant:  German Fin Min Schaeuble: Interest rate situation in Germany is causing issue, there is too much debt and too much central bank money around the world
[11:10] {dino} well, just get obama to forgive the debt
[11:10] {RonS} lol
01[11:13] {@Threei}  hehe
[11:13] {RonS} $IBB   pic.twitter.com/qiIxzSDPt7
[11:21] {RonS} Egyptian officials say that their country and Saudi Arabia will head up a ground operation against Shiite rebels in Yemen  (fj)
01[11:22] {@Threei}  that's how it should be... let them settle these things between themselves
01[11:22] {@Threei}  (and hopefully we get to kill last man standing)
[11:23] {RonS} bet if they gave $3 mil to the dem party would have has no problem:   NSR assesing options and $150 million buyback
[11:24] {RonS} -s +d
01[11:30] {@Threei} Long Setup:  JPM  .35 break
01[11:30] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
01[11:32] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:41] {@Threei}  1:2
01[11:49] {@Threei}  1:3
[11:50] {RonS} nice thanks 3i
01[11:50] {@Threei}  yw
[11:52] {dino} gj
01[11:57] {@Threei}  1:4
01[11:57] {@Threei}  out
01[12:06] {@Threei}  MCD
01[12:06] {@Threei}  no news
01[12:06] {@Threei}  sudden 50 cents drop
[12:15] {dino} spxl hl l .57
[12:23] {dino} stop .42 -.15
[12:23] {dino} taking break
01[12:32] {@Threei}  http://time.com/3578367/get-in-shape-psychology-tricks/
[13:19] {RonS} ARAB FOREIGN MINISTERS AGREE ON A DRAFT RESOLUTION TO FORM A UNIFIED MILITARY ARAB FORCE -EGYPTIAN STATE TV - RTRS
[13:20] {dino} good
[13:20] {RonS} time to fill up today...
02[13:22] * Disconnected
Session Close: Thu Mar 26 13:22:34 2015

Session Start: Thu Mar 26 13:22:34 2015
Session Ident: #discussions
02[13:22] * Attempting to rejoin channel #discussions
03[13:22] * Rejoined channel #discussions
[13:23] {RonS} head hit keyboard?
01[13:23] {Threei}  lol
01[13:23] {Threei}  ISP hiccup
[13:23] {RonS} better than isis...
01[13:33] {Threei}  TMUS Seeing call activity1500 May 35 calls trade at $0.65
[13:38] {RonS} btfd bios...
[13:39] {RonS} hot run
[13:40] {RonS} (a dream of dino's?)
[13:40] {dino} lol
01[13:57] {Threei}  IWM pullback under .60 will be inetersting for ling
[14:02] {RonS} VIX APR 20 CALLS bought on offer @$.65 50k
[14:03] {RonS} wow... $3.25 million
[14:04] {dino} big boys
[14:05] {RonS} Saudis
[14:08] {RonS} had a hedge fund guy explain to me once that anything near like this would be directly negotiated with an MM... they would never pay an offer price on anything of size...
01[14:08] {Threei}  totally
01[14:09] {Threei}  except some rich amateur
01[14:10] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .55 break
01[14:10] {Threei}  If holds  .50
01[14:13] {Threei}  meh
[14:26] {dino} speaking of hedge funds, just finished reading "buy side". pretty crazy
01[14:27] {Threei}  wild west?
[14:28] {dino} no, ny hedge fund trader
[14:30] {dino} turney duff, what a crazy time he had. fun read
[14:38] {RonS} neighbor next door my daughter's age named their two boys Hudson, and Chase... biting my tongue to ask them if they are going to stop the pretense and name the next one Preppy...
01[14:39] {Threei}  lol
01[14:41] {Threei}  why don't I have neighbors with Moe and Larry...
01[14:41] {Threei}  I'd have a suggestion for their third
[14:55] {RonS} ooof nomura just stabbed sndk... says 55-60 tops now w/ detail
01[14:57] {Threei} Short Setup: MCD  .60 break
01[14:57] {Threei}  If holds  .70
01[15:05] {Threei}  1:1
[15:14] {RonS} turn off the heat lamp...
01[15:19] {Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .40 break
01[15:20] {Threei}  If holds  .30
01[15:26] {Threei}  nope
01[15:35] {Threei}  was waiting for FB pullback... never got it
01[15:37] {Threei}  maybe now
01[15:37] {Threei}  from under .20
01[15:39] {Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .20 break
01[15:39] {Threei}  If holds  .10
01[15:40] {Threei}  change to .15
01[15:43] {Threei}  Chechnya threatens to arm Mexico if US sends weapons to Ukraine
01[15:43] {Threei}  imbeciles
[15:43] {dino} roflol
[15:43] {RonS} lol...really...the drug gangs don't have enough?
01[15:43] {Threei}  as if we didn't arm them on our own better than anyone else could :)
01[15:45] {Threei}  Chechnya's parliamentary speaker Dukuvakha Abdurakhmanov said that the U.S. has “no right” to advise Russia on how to behave with its neighbours.
01[15:45] {Threei}  He warned that the supply of arms to Ukraine will be perceived by Chechnya, a southern Russian republic, as a signal to deliver new weapons to Mexico to “resume debate on the legal status of the territories annexed by the U.S.”
[15:45] {dino} but of course
01[15:45] {Threei}  Abdurakhmanov is referring to the states of California, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Colorado and Wyoming, which Mexico surrendered to the U.S. in the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo in 1848
[15:45] {dino} why don't they just supply the indians
01[15:46] {Threei}  stop to .09
[15:48] {dino} wrld blood
01[15:50] {Threei}  half out
01[15:50] {Threei}  time is pressing
01[15:50] {Threei}  stop to .14
01[15:52] {Threei}  ok, done
01[15:52] {Threei}  thank you, have a great evening
01[15:52] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:53] {dino} stc cnat calls from a.m., +.35 /50%. ty for idea 3i
01[15:54] {Threei}  :)
[15:55] {dino} oxm spike
[15:56] {dino} calling it a day, gn

March 25 2015

Finishing play of the good day: 

Went even higher after our exit but that was another strong day with a lot of good ones and just one stop, so didn't want to push at the end of the day.

Session Time: Wed Mar 25 00:00:00 2015

[09:04] {dino} gm

[09:04] {RonS} gm

01[09:04] {@Threei}  dino, ron :)

[09:05] {RonS} LL us product safety to report findings 10 a.m. edt

[09:05] {dino} holding calls on it

01[09:05] {@Threei}  that'll be interesting

[09:06] {dino} indeed

01[09:20] {@Threei}  Upside:

01[09:20] {@Threei}  -KFX +46% (being acquired by Lexmark for $11/shr)

01[09:20] {@Threei}  -KRFT +35% (acquiring Heinz)

01[09:20] {@Threei}  -VBLT +15% (earnings)

01[09:20] {@Threei}  -STMP +10% (acquiring Endicia from Newell Rubbermaid for $215M cash)

01[09:20] {@Threei}  -LL +8.5% (CPSC announcement @ 10AM)

01[09:20] {@Threei}  -BLRX +4.4% (reported successful top-line and efficacy results for novel stem cell mobilization treatment)

01[09:20] {@Threei}  -GPRO +4% (FBN making positive comments)

01[09:20] {@Threei}  Downside:

01[09:20] {@Threei}  -CBK -12% (earnings)

01[09:20] {@Threei}  -NSM -9% (offering 17.5M shares)

01[09:20] {@Threei}  -ENLK -9% (priced 22.8M shares at $25.71/shr)

01[09:20] {@Threei}  -NVAX -7% (offering $175M common stock)

01[09:20] {@Threei}  -YGE -5% (earnings; guidance)

01[09:20] {@Threei}  -PAYX -2.5% (earnings)

01[09:20] {@Threei}  -LE -2% (earnings)

[09:21] {RonS} that option dude i discussed had 400 krft calls he sold friday, left 400k on the table...

[09:24] {dino} nice

[09:26] {RonS} expect LL to be halted soon here...

01[09:33] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .50 break

01[09:33] {@Threei}  If holds  .45 

01[09:34] {@Threei}  Invalidated  

01[09:35] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .30 break

01[09:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .20 

01[09:35] {@Threei}  Invalidated  

01[09:36] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .80 break

01[09:37] {@Threei}  If holds  .70 

01[09:38] {@Threei}  no go

01[09:39] {@Threei}  rinse

01[09:39] {@Threei}  somg

[09:41] {RonS} NY TIMES article...Dennis Lockhart Q/A: September at the latest to raise rates

01[09:42] {@Threei}  I am not so sure

[09:42] {RonS} posting because of selloff...

01[09:45] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .20 break

01[09:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .10 

01[09:46] {@Threei}  1:1  

[09:48] {dino} airm?

[09:48] {dino} w/you 3i on rates, thinking next year

01[09:49] {@Threei}  don't see anything fresh on AIRM

[09:49] {dino} stale air i guess

01[09:49] {@Threei}  lol

[09:50] {dino} gap filling, 45.75 area

01[09:56] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .30 break

01[09:56] {@Threei}  If holds  .20 

01[09:57] {@Threei}  1:1  

01[09:58] {@Threei}  1:2  

[09:59] {dino} wday hl l .31, stop .99

[10:00] {dino} otic drop

01[10:04] {@Threei}  [LL] US Consumer Product Safety Commission: we are actively investigating - conf call

01[10:08] {@Threei}  are beginning to collect samples from stores- company has been cooperative thus far

[10:09] {dino} that should take them months

[10:09] {RonS} ...that's what they just said

[10:10] {dino} lol

[10:10] {dino} added some airm calls

[10:16] {dino} ll spike

01[10:16] {@Threei}  - too soon to say whether there will be recalls of LL products - Follow up: CNBC's Wapner tweets: Ahead of CPSC call, Tilson says $LL position remains unchanged since he "more than doubled" short. Tells me "havent traded the stock since"

01[10:16] {@Threei}  YHOO Ticks up on weekly call activity4100 3/27 45 calls trade at $0.21

01[10:20] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .75 break

01[10:20] {@Threei}  If holds  .85 

[10:21] {RonS} took wday .45 to .95 +.50 thanks dino

[10:21] {dino} yw, gj

[10:21] {dino} going for a buck

01[10:22] {@Threei}  wtg

01[10:24] {@Threei}  1:1  

[10:24] {dino} out wday ave .04, +.73

[10:25] {RonS} gj

[10:25] {dino} ty

[10:26] {dino} fcx up, surprised w/that div cut and the reasons why, sounded like they are in real bind

01[10:28] {@Threei}  1:2  

01[10:28] {@Threei}  1:3  

[10:28] {RonS} good one 3i

01[10:28] {@Threei}  ty

[10:29] {RonS} sm l blox .99 s/l .80

[10:30] {dino} 07 fast red

[10:33] {dino} ron that espr gave back 20 pts

[10:39] {RonS} wow

[10:40] {RonS} out blox -.05 indices not done going down...

01[10:44] {@Threei}  who knew holding ukrainian debt can get you free hairdo and, umm, vital organ enlargement

01[10:45] {@Threei}  Ukraine bondholders face haircuts and extensions

[10:47] {dino} lol

[10:47] {RonS} hair extensions?

01[10:48] {@Threei}  hmmm... hat might be even worse than I thought, lol

01[10:48] {@Threei}  that

01[10:49] {@Threei}  two top officals were arrested right during the minister cabinet meeting - televised one, no less

01[10:50] {@Threei}  corruption charges

[10:50] {dino} wday hl l .51

[10:58] {RonS} meantime...snow here

01[10:58] {@Threei}  yuck

[10:59] {RonS} 1 day event...nice so i don't have to water...

[11:00] {dino} was 15 degrees f walking the dog this morning

[11:03] {dino} out wday .78, +.27

01[11:04] {@Threei} Long Setup:  YHOO  .90 break

01[11:04] {@Threei}  If holds  .80 

[11:09] {RonS} krft running wtf?

01[11:10] {@Threei}  nothing yet

01[11:13] {@Threei}  TRQ CEO: talks with the Mongolia government have slowed

01[11:13] {@Threei}  postal camels got tired?

[11:16] {RonS} don't know what it means but lol

[11:16] {RonS} just the thought of postal camels...

[11:25] {dino} wow espr

[11:26] {RonS} raly monkey

[11:31] {RonS} espr wants 60?

01[11:32] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .40 break

01[11:32] {@Threei}  wow

01[11:32] {@Threei}  lol

01[11:32] {@Threei}  1:1 BEFORE I posted

01[11:40] {@Threei} Long Setup:  YHOO  .50 break

01[11:40] {@Threei}  If holds  .40 

01[11:41] {@Threei}  change to .40

01[12:00] {@Threei}  European indices are looking to close at their lows as tensions between the EU and Greece worsen, while in the US the poor February durable goods report steepening the risk-off tone. The 10-year UST yield dropped as low 1.865% earlier on the risk-off tone. Biotech names are seeing broad declines, dragging the Nasdaq lower

01[12:01] {@Threei}  Today's weekly DoE report saw the eleventh straight build in oil inventories, with the amount once again widely beating expectations. Last night's API report saw a smaller increase in inventories, down quite a bit from last week's number. Beyond inventories, chaos deepened in Yemen, and there were reports that Saudi Arabia was moving military forces to the border with Yemen.

01[12:02] {@Threei}  Brent saw steady gains through the Asia and European sessions, rising from $54.80 to as high as $56.20, but the inventory report knocked the contract back to $55.50 or so. WTI crude is around $47.75, and is well contained within yesterday's ranges

01[12:02] {@Threei}  Shares of Lumber Liquidators are up 10% this morning after the Consumer Product Safety Commission updated the public on its investigation into allegations about the high toxicity of the company's flooring products. The CPSC said its investigations will take months to complete, however the somewhat dovish tone, and the fact that the toxicity levels are in violation of California's much stricter regulations (not the CPSC's) is hurting the big short positions.

[12:03] {dino} qrvo drop

[12:07] {dino} nmm spike

01[12:15] {@Threei}  only in Victoria: https://www.facebook.com/ilovedowntownvictoria/posts/956108621075477

[12:17] {RonS} only in...would they not know the difference between a cow and steer?  looks like a steer to me...

[12:18] {RonS} writer probably vegan...

01[12:18] {@Threei}  texts says steer

[12:19] {RonS} ah

01[12:19] {@Threei}  no go

[12:27] {RonS} crude hod...strange

01[12:45] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .45 break

01[12:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .35 

01[12:46] {@Threei}  Invalidated  

[12:47] {RonS} "what did you do today Daddy Dino?" oh, well, workday dropped 3 bucks and i made money long...

01[12:47] {@Threei}  lol

01[12:48] {@Threei}  .40 new trigger

01[12:48] {@Threei}  If holds  .30 

[12:49] {RonS} ...but i have a regret... what's that daddy Dino?

[12:49] {RonS} ...nemo wasn't around so i couldn't tell him i was "lucky"...

01[12:49] {@Threei}  1:1  

[12:50] {RonS} good one 3i

[12:50] {dino} lol

01[12:50] {@Threei}  ty

01[12:50] {@Threei}  got that reversal finally

01[12:51] {@Threei}  turned my Taoist Trader in a book form this weekend

01[12:51] {@Threei}  should be on Amazon in a week or so

01[12:52] {@Threei}  1:2  

01[12:58] {@Threei}  1:3  

01[12:58] {@Threei}  good girl

01[12:59] {@Threei}  1:4 baby

01[12:59] {@Threei}  me out

[13:00] {dino} gj

01[13:01] {@Threei}  ty

[13:01] {dino} this down done or not?

01[13:01] {@Threei}  even though this market is boring, but I've adjusted well, almost every day is profitable

01[13:02] {@Threei}  can't tell, really

01[13:02] {@Threei}  something keeps market worried today, downticks easy

[13:02] {dino} yeah, you're doing better than me, running a bit below goals

[13:05] {RonS} sheesh, snow getting serious 4" already and swirling winds...good thing the tree haven't leafed out

[13:05] {dino} at this rate in pa, won't see leaves until may

[13:05] {RonS} ctrp pretty darn strong

[13:09] {dino} surprised w/quarter ending in few days that they did not hold this up

[13:18] {RonS} headline:  ketchup on mac & cheese?

[13:20] {dino} sold yesterdays vxx calls, +.51 / 20%

[13:20] {RonS} nice

[13:21] {dino} ty

01[13:22] {@Threei}  [FB] CEO: we are making a big shift from a single service to a group of services - F8 developer conf - Promises more bug fixes: pledges to fix 90% of minor bugs within 30 days in addition to current effort to fix major reported bugs within 48 hours, thus creating more stability- 80% of top 100 apps use 'Login with Facebook'- Many top developers have joined our 'Threat Exchange' to combat security threats, including Microsoft, Yahoo, Pinterest - Over 3B videos a day are viewed in the news feed- Will soon incorporate spherical video in the newsfeed- Adding features today to share to specific groups instead of with all your Facebook friends- Confirms over 600M MAUs for Facebook messenger - Messenger already accounts for over 10% of mobile VoIP calling globally- Introduces 'Messenger Platform'

[13:29] {dino} wday hl l .53

[13:31] {RonS} wow wday 30k block

[13:31] {RonS} actually a good sign...

[13:37] {RonS} ...or not

[13:38] {RonS} zen levitation

[13:42] {RonS} run you bastard...wday

[13:43] {RonS} sorry, you nice stock...

[13:44] {RonS} can't you feel the power of dino?

[13:44] {dino} thats pushing it

[13:46] {RonS} dino: "look into my eyes wday...you will run a buck..."

01[13:50] {@Threei}  http://www.arrestinglight.com/blog/2015/3/beware-the-march-flurries

[13:51] {RonS} nice 3i, thanks for posting

01[13:51] {@Threei}  :)

01[13:52] {@Threei}  you are not on my photoblog update e-mail list?

01[13:52] {@Threei}  tsk tsk tsk

01[13:52] {@Threei}  once a month you can handle :)

[13:52] {RonS} guess not... follow you on twitter

01[13:53] {@Threei}  gosh... I don't know why anyone would, I practically don't use that :)

01[13:53] {@Threei}  FB, I do

[13:53] {RonS} don't do fb here

01[13:54] {@Threei}  lucky you

01[13:54] {@Threei}  I wosh I could stay away from it

01[13:54] {@Threei}  i*

01[13:55] {@Threei}  [ZEN] Announces it is a partner company on Facebook's 'Business on Messenger'; Confirms online retailers Zulily and Everlane are the first two companies using the integration to support their customers

[13:57] {cosmo} Is FB addictive?

01[13:57] {@Threei}  not to me

01[13:57] {@Threei}  although some say it is

[13:57] {RonS} only if you snort it...

01[13:57] {@Threei}  lol

01[14:25] {@Threei}  LL Goldman Sachs making positive comments

[14:28] {dino} keep talking

01[14:28] {@Threei}  hehe

01[14:28] {@Threei}  "I'm sorry, we can't hire you. But your background check was hilarious."

01[14:29] {@Threei}  I bet when they discovered the radish everyone was like "Let's name it Rad!" and one guy was all "it's not that tasty, let's dial that back a bit."

[14:29] {dino} 07 green

01[14:30] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .35 break

01[14:30] {@Threei}  If holds  .25 

[14:38] {RonS} wow crude closed at 49.21

01[14:39] {@Threei}  tome for saudis to anounce production increase

01[14:39] {@Threei}  time

[14:59] {dino} wday stop

01[15:15] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .75 break

01[15:15] {@Threei}  If holds  .65 

01[15:19] {@Threei}  1:1  

01[15:25] {@Threei}  1:2  

[15:25] {RonS} a beaut

01[15:25] {@Threei}  :)

01[15:44] {@Threei}  1:3  

01[15:44] {@Threei}  out

01[15:44] {@Threei}  done for the day

01[15:44] {@Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening

01[15:44] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow

Mar 24 2015

Rare trade, as early setups often aren't that reliable. This one begged to be taken though. Kangaroo tail reversal, right from the 111 Trades pages 

Very nice day with couple stops and whole lot of nicely profitable trades.

Session Time: Tue Mar 24 00:00:00 2015
[08:51] {dino} gm 3i
01[08:51] {@Threei}  dino :)
[08:53] {dino} 13 degrees 3i, even the dog quit our walk early
01[08:53] {@Threei}  lol
01[08:53] {@Threei}  reminds me: it was so cold, thermometer knocked on the window and asked to let it in
[08:54] {dino} lol
[08:58] {dino} the schools just pushed back spring track, baseball ect. by ten days here, too much snow
01[08:58] {@Threei}  but global warming is blooming
[09:04] {RonS} gm...ms cfo to googl...guess she had enough of the eastern winters...
[09:04] {cosmo} We'll be needing more sports domes
01[09:04] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:06] {RonS} thinking george wants a job as a stock analyst:  George Soros Warns Greece "Is Going Down The Drain"
01[09:07] {@Threei}  well, this century or next?
[09:07] {RonS} or last... lol
01[09:07] {@Threei}  'cause at this pace it's going to make headline for the next N decades
01[09:18] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -DGLY +20% (earnings; announced $25M mixed shelf)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -CHRS +17% (earnings; filed $100M secondary offering)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -ARAY +7% (Christie Innomed signed exclusive sales agent agreement for radiation therapy systems in Canada)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -RADA +6% (selected by LTM for Laser Weapon Research Projects)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -LINE +5.2% (enters LOI with Quantum Energy for a $1B energy commitment to acquire & develop oil & natgas assets)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -NSM +5% (purchasing additional portfolio of mortgage servicing rights from OCN)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -CHK +3.2% (updated 2015 operating plan; Icahn disclosed a 10.98% stake as of Dec)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -MKC +3.2% (earnings)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -ARIA +3% (announced approval of Inclusig in Israel with Medison Pharma)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -SONS -33% (cut Q1 guidance)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -WLL -21% (offering 35M shares & private offering of $1B in convertible senior notes; negative broker commentary)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -JRJC -20% (earnings)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -OCN -5.4% (selling additional $25B portfolio of mortgage servicing rights to Nationstar)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -GLP -5% (prices 1.96M unit offering for $36.10/shr)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -LQ -4% (announced secondary of 17.5M shares for Blackstone affiliates)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -FCX -2.5% (cuts dividend 84%)
01[09:30] {@Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .20 break
01[09:30] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:31] {@Threei}  not yet
[09:31] {RonS} pulp
01[09:31] {@Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .30 break
01[09:31] {@Threei}  valid still
01[09:32] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:34] {@Threei}  1:3
01[09:35] {@Threei}  1:4
01[09:35] {@Threei}  out
[09:35] {RonS} good one
01[09:36] {@Threei}  ty
01[09:36] {@Threei}  FCX is rarely this active
01[09:37] {@Threei}  but to cut dividends like this and fully recover? there must be a short in that
[09:37] {dino} thats a hell of div cut, does not speak well looking forward
[09:37] {dino} would think 17s get tested
[09:38] {dino} maybe not today, but...
01[09:39] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .35 break
01[09:39] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
01[09:46] {@Threei}  stop .29
01[09:46] {@Threei}  1 cent from 1:1
01[09:49] {@Threei}  meh
01[09:54] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MCD  99 reak
01[09:55] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:59] {@Threei}  GOGO Ticking higher on announcement company to be featured on CNBC's Mad Money
01[09:59] {@Threei}  *(US) MAR RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: -8 V 3E
01[09:59] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:59] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) FEB NEW HOME SALES: 539K V 464KE
01[10:01] {@Threei}  1:3
[10:03] {RonS} ye olde flippin da burgers...good one
01[10:03] {@Threei}  :)
01[10:04] {@Threei}  1:4 close enough
01[10:04] {@Threei}  out
[10:07] {dino} -gj
01[10:07] {@Threei}  too soon
[10:13] {dino} ovas spike
[10:19] {RonS} chickens shot but can't find any news safm others
01[10:20] {@Threei}  nothing fresh... 3/18 last headline
[10:21] {dino} ppc off on it
[10:46] {dino} qrvo hl s .66 ave
[10:47] {dino} makes me think of tequila
01[10:47] {@Threei}  lol
01[10:54] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .05 break
01[10:54] {@Threei}  If holds  .95
[10:59] {dino} stop qrvo .74 -.08, not working
[11:01] {RonS} gonna take another shot?... pun intended...
[11:02] {dino} lol
[11:03] {RonS} prta good spanking on your puts, eh?
[11:04] {dino} prta running again, odd for ph 1
[11:05] {dino} sjw drop
[11:06] {RonS} sjw...they got none...
01[11:08] {@Threei}  1:1
[11:09] {dino} wday calls working
[11:13] {dino} ll hl l .05
[11:16] {dino} stop to .99
[11:17] {dino} out ll .35, +.30
[11:18] {dino} too soon
[11:19] {dino} adding ll calls aug
01[11:22] {@Threei}  1:2
[11:23] {RonS} nice
01[11:23] {@Threei}  ty
[11:30] {dino} ty
[11:36] {RonS} ceco l 5.03
[11:37] {dino} safm hl l .96
[11:38] {dino} i'll join you ron
[11:38] {RonS} cfo left for a more exciting industry...
[11:38] {dino} what could be more exciting than college girls?
[11:38] {RonS} lol
[11:39] {RonS} online porn...all of the looks and none of the bullshit...
[11:40] {RonS} :)
[11:47] {RonS} ceco to 5.00
[12:09] {dino} slow movers today
[12:11] {dino} bnft drop
[12:12] {dino} hl l .52
[12:16] {dino} sbny drop
01[12:22] {@Threei}  this is highly confusing sentence:
01[12:22] {@Threei}  WTI crude prices were soft during the Asian session on the weak Chinese PMI data but then rose from $47 as high as $48.50 before softening again.
[12:22] {dino} out safm ave .28, +.32
01[12:22] {@Threei}  and after softening again? they softed more, or hardened?
[12:36] {dino} out ceco .12, +.07
[12:36] {dino} stopping bnft
[12:37] {dino} taking a break
01[12:38] {@Threei}  Sweden reports Russian bombers, fighters over Baltic Sea
01[12:49] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .10 break
01[12:49] {@Threei}  If holds  19
01[13:13] {@Threei}  total yawn
[13:20] {RonS} need to re-boot...
01[13:38] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  25 break
01[13:38] {@Threei}  .05 is more confident entry but ranges are so tight, difficult to count on enough room for profit
01[14:06] {@Threei}  [YELP] Planning partner apps allowing users to order various services from flower delivery to legal advice - Forbes (update) - Yelp partnering with BloomNation (flowers), GolfNow (tee times), LegalZoom (legal advice), TableList (nightlife bookings), Vagaro (spa appointments), and Vimbly (booking activities).
[14:09] {RonS} shouldn't Vimbly be named Danno?
01[14:09] {@Threei}  hmmm... I need a decoder ring :)
[14:10] {RonS} Hawaii five o... book 'em Danno...
01[14:11] {@Threei}  never watched that
01[14:11] {@Threei}  my life is not worth living?
01[14:12] {@Threei}  I went thgough all Games of Thrones though
01[14:12] {@Threei}  my debt to societay is paid
[14:13] {RonS} recently watched the first one...really diappointing imo
01[14:14] {@Threei}  it gets better later on...
01[14:14] {@Threei}  but yeah
01[14:18] {@Threei} Short Setup: JPM  .75 break
01[14:18] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
[14:19] {dino} added vxx calls
[14:20] {dino} i liked that orange is the new black
[14:20] {dino} currently in season 2 house of cards
01[14:21] {@Threei}  ahhh... 3rd is very disappointing
01[14:21] {@Threei}  it's like writers haven't even watched frist two
[14:23] {RonS} FNJN in deal with Alibaba  BABA  for Cybersecurity , FNJN just tweeted it
01[14:24] {@Threei}  running
[14:30] {RonS} from the web:  if a man does something in the woods, and a woman is not there, is it still wrong?
01[14:30] {@Threei}  lol
[14:35] {RonS} neighbor guy in his own front yard was cutting down two small ash trees so his young red maple could get more sunlight and grow faster...woman walks by and says: are you cutting down live trees?...says yes and tells reason...her response "i feel sorry for you"...
01[14:36] {@Threei}  why?
[14:36] {dino} does she live in a mud hut?
[14:36] {RonS} who knows...
01[14:36] {@Threei}  with tinfoil roof
[14:37] {cosmo} Ash trees are spiritual
[14:37] {cosmo} to some...
[14:38] {RonS} probably to the ash borer...
[14:38] {cosmo} to Celtics
[14:38] {dino} two woodpeckers drinking in a bar. one asys to the other, "hey, let's go get us a nice piece of ash"
[14:39] {RonS} 30% of the trees on the Front Range are ash (3 million)...the borer is going to kill them all...
[14:39] {RonS} lol dino
[14:39] {cosmo} yeah...woodpeckers understand...
[14:39] {dino} same here ron, pa is expected to lose most ash trees from that
01[14:40] {@Threei}  then borer dies of starvation, and ash trees retake the territory... circle of life
[14:41] {dino} are your sure it doesn't die of boredom?
01[14:41] {@Threei}  could be
[14:41] {RonS} not here, they were imported anyway...people will replace them with something else...
[14:41] {RonS} oof, dino on a roll...
[14:42] {cosmo} replace them with solar panels
[14:42] {cosmo} I did
[14:43] {dino} what will they make the louisville sluggers out of when they are all gone?
[14:43] {cosmo} aluminum
[14:44] {RonS} the Finns just bought it...they have wood...
[14:45] {dino} speaking of the sluggers, i took my son to yankees game few years ago. it was bat day. they gave out 15,000 giambi, 28" ash loiusville sluggers to kids under 15 that day. on my 3rd beer, i look around the stadium and think, wow this could get ugly real fast.
[14:46] {RonS} lol
[14:46] {RonS} a classic
[14:46] {dino} one idiot and you'd have a bat fueled riot
[14:47] {cosmo} that depends on the town
[14:47] {dino} well, it was ny
[14:47] {cosmo} my town too laid back
[14:48] {cosmo} oh...ny....yea, makes sense
[14:48] {cosmo} 28" night sticks
[14:50] {dino} bank of america donated them. when i bought the tickets, i figured it would be those little 12" toy bats
[14:51] {cosmo} BoA means business
[14:52] {dino} like arming the inmates
[14:54] {RonS} abmd profit taking...
01[14:57] {@Threei}  1:1
01[14:57] {@Threei}  1:1
01[14:57] {@Threei}  oops
01[14:57] {@Threei}  didn't post in timw, so posted twice, lol
01[15:02] {@Threei}  FNJN Update: H.C. Wainright reiterates Buy rating, price target $5
01[15:21] {@Threei}  wow
01[15:24] {@Threei}  ugh
01[15:24] {@Threei}  just started contemplating VXX, and the thing has jumped
01[15:28] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .15 break
01[15:29] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
01[15:34] {@Threei}  nah
01[15:34] {@Threei}  whatever
01[15:34] {@Threei}  finishing on that good day as it is
01[15:34] {@Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
01[15:34] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow

Mar 23 2015

Beautiful beginning to the week, with win after win, and just one 8 cents stop. 


Session Time: Mon Mar 23 00:00:00 2015
[09:10] {RonS} hello gents
[09:11] {dino} gm
01[09:11] {@Threei}  ron, dino :)
[09:11] {dino} well 3i, 18 degrees here, but hopefully warming up by end of week
01[09:13] {@Threei}  sigh
[09:13] {dino} been a long and record breaking cold winter
01[09:13] {@Threei}  yet they won't stop talking about warmest year on record
01[09:14] {@Threei}  I've no idea how these people reconcile their words with reality
[09:15] {dino} they throw out the cold areas
01[09:15] {@Threei}  because they are too cold to count... makes sense
[09:16] {cosmo} It is supposed to be the warmest Spring ever...
01[09:17] {@Threei}  right before warmest summer ever, I guess...
[09:18] {cosmo} that was last year
[09:18] {RonS} when you have the time, this guy nails it:  http://news.heartland.org/newspaper-article/2015/03/20/why-i-am-climate-change-skeptic
[09:22] {Raven} warm in the west and cold in the east .... called the Jet Stream
[09:22] {cosmo} What happened to Mars is that it stopped producing CO2.
[09:23] {Raven} Washington needs to stop producing hot air
01[09:23] {@Threei}  lol
[09:23] {cosmo} hot air helps melt the ice though
[09:24] {Raven} good ... send some warm air tho \
[09:24] {Raven} \\
[09:24] {Raven} to Michigan
[09:25] {cosmo} Michigan State BB is hot...
[09:26] {Raven} I went to U of Mich ... we were trained to hate Mich Stated
[09:26] {Raven} -d
01[09:27] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -IMGN +21% (Takeda licensed rights to novel antibody-drug conjugate technology)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -GNW +6.6% (positive broker commentary)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -THC +4.6% (confirmed deal to acquire 50.1% in United Surgical Partners; also acquiring UK-based Aspen Healthcare)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -CYBR +4% (positive broker commentary)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -MEIP -63% (top-line Phase 2 study results for Pracinostat showed no difference in rate of complete remission rate)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -VRTX +5.3% (Feuerstein comments & 12-week safety study of VX-661 showing efficacy on low-side of expectations)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -SNP -3.2% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -KSU -2.8% (Q1 EPS/Rev guidance)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -LULU -2.5% (negative broker commentary)
01[09:31] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .25 break
01[09:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .35
01[09:31] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:32] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:32] {@Threei}  1:3
01[09:36] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .95 break
01[09:36] {@Threei}  If holds  .88
01[09:37] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .60 break
01[09:37] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[09:37] {@Threei}  Invalidated  FB
01[09:38] {@Threei}  1:1  IWM
01[09:39] {@Threei}  FB, should have recalibrated
01[09:47] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .60 break
01[09:47] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[09:48] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:50] {dino} bio blood
01[09:51] {@Threei}  but CYBR is healthy
01[09:51] {@Threei}  (see what I did there?)
01[09:51] {@Threei}  1:2
[09:51] {dino} sorry, meant biotech blood
01[09:51] {@Threei}  I know :)
01[09:52] {@Threei}  just being smart ass
01[09:52] {@Threei}  bio vs cyber
01[09:52] {@Threei}  trying to outron ron
[09:52] {dino} you'regoing to make ron mad
01[09:53] {@Threei}  for some reason I feel brave today
[09:59] {RonS} np here...
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) FEB EXISTING HOME SALES: 4.88M V 4.92ME
01[10:09] {@Threei}  MCD
01[10:09] {@Threei}  wow
01[10:09] {@Threei}  just when I thought to call .20 or .25 :(
01[10:09] {@Threei}  crap
01[10:09] {@Threei}  MCD Glenview Capital sends letter
01[10:10] {@Threei}  scarlet letter?
01[10:10] {@Threei}  love letter?
01[10:12] {@Threei}  suggests REIT conversion could unlock $20B in value
[10:17] {dino} nlnk sm l .49
[10:17] {dino} same talk on shld 3i
01[10:18] {@Threei}  yeah
01[10:22] {@Threei} Long Setup:  YUM  .70 break
01[10:22] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[10:22] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:32] {dino} out nlnk .50, +1.01
01[10:32] {@Threei}  wtg
[10:32] {RonS} gj
[10:32] {dino} ty
01[10:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MCD  .10 break
01[10:32] {@Threei}  If holds  98
[10:32] {dino} i am thinking of raising my minimum shares to 500
01[10:33] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:35] {RonS} if you were ese...496.75
[10:35] {dino} lol
01[10:35] {@Threei}  lol
[10:40] {dino} fltx spike
01[10:42] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:45] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:45] {@Threei}  out
[11:00] {dino} gj
01[11:00] {@Threei}  *(EU) EURO ZONE MAR ADVANCE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: -3.7 V -6.0E
01[11:00] {@Threei}  ty
01[11:24] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MCD  .75 break
01[11:24] {@Threei}  If holds  .65
01[11:30] {@Threei}  1:1
[11:43] {RonS} (CKP) CFO has resigned from his position
01[12:04] {@Threei} Short Setup: MCD  .60 break
01[12:04] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
[12:11] {RonS} hearing xom for cop rumor
[12:11] {RonS} 72-74
01[12:12] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .80 break
01[12:13] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
[12:15] {dino} cop?
01[12:16] {@Threei}  takeover rumor
01[12:16] {@Threei}  COP Hearing takeover chatter circulating- Exxon said to be interested
[12:17] {dino} ahh
01[12:17] {@Threei}  1:2
01[12:17] {@Threei}  1:1
01[12:23] {@Threei}  1:2
[12:28] {dino} gj
01[12:28] {@Threei}  ty
01[12:30] {@Threei}  Crude prices remain well within the range seen last week, with WTI just below $47 and Brent below $56. In comments out earlier today, the Saudis deflected blame for the oil price crash, pointing out that non-OPEC sources pump 70% of crude. Oil Minister Naimi said Saudi Arabia saw no need to boost output to 12.5M since there was no demand, but also said the Kingdom was ready to boost output if needed.
[12:33] {dino} taking a break
[13:28] {dino} .
01[13:33] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .20 break
01[13:33] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
[13:55] {dino} markets just sitting in tight range all day
01[13:55] {@Threei}  yeah
01[13:55] {@Threei}  decent morning, then lull
[13:59] {dino} same last friday. this needs to change or its going to be a long boring spring
[14:02] {RonS} but you keep saying it's still winter...
01[14:04] {@Threei}  this is slow climb for you... boring market
[14:06] {dino} ron, it is winter where i am, just spring on my calander
[14:07] {RonS} where's Julius Caesar when you need him?
01[14:07] {@Threei}  ask Brut
[14:09] {RonS} http://www.livius.org/caa-can/caesar/caesar_t17.html
01[14:09] {@Threei}  1:1
[14:12] {RonS} Chatter $AAPL to partner with $ADT for home monitoring and/or DIY security product.
[14:23] {RonS} thinking they exhausted the overtime budget:  Police suspend investigation into UVA sexual assault allegations detailed in Rolling Stone, citing lack of evidence http://www.breakingnews.com/t/ZNu
[14:31] {dino} gotta hop early guys, catch you tomorrow
01[14:33] {@Threei}  take care dino
01[15:07] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .05 break
01[15:07] {@Threei}  If holds  .98
[15:14] {RonS} pull that rug
01[15:14] {@Threei}  really
[15:18] {cosmo} http://www.metrowestdailynews.com/article/20150318/NEWS/150316042
[15:19] {RonS} lol...they aren't supposed to be white...
[15:21] {cosmo} hunt them in the snow
01[15:35] {@Threei}  market just can't decide
01[15:38] {@Threei}  meh
01[15:38] {@Threei}  forst stop today, lol
01[15:38] {@Threei}  i*
[15:38] {RonS} brutal
01[15:38] {@Threei}  hehe
01[15:38] {@Threei}  ok, finishing on that
01[15:38] {@Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow

Market Week Wrap-up

TradeTheNews.com: Weekly Market Update: Fed's patience is gone but not forgotten
Fri, 20 Mar 2015 16:05 PM EST

As expected, the FOMC altered its forward guidance this week, replacing the "patient" line with broad language that emphasized its core policy principle of remaining data dependent. Fed Chair Yellen couched the change in pretty stark terms: "just because we removed the word patient from the statement doesn't mean we're going to be impatient." The FOMC also lowered its economic forecast for 2015-16, hinting that the data might not be as rosy as required for a normalization of interest rates. Nearly every global asset class saw big moves on the decision: equities soared, the euro saw an astonishing move across five big-figures (EUR/USD made a round trip from 1.0580 to 1.1050 and back to 1.0650, the second broadest one-day range seen since 2000), and the 10-year UST yield dropped as low as 1.90% and remained below 2% through the end of the week. By Friday, the Shanghai Composite posted a fresh multi-year high, the FTSE index surged above 7,000 for the first time ever, while the Nasdaq approached its all-time closing high of 5048 set in March 2000. For the week, the DJIA added 2.1%, the S&P500 rose 2.7% and the Nasdaq gained 3.2%.

The FOMC replaced patient with a statement that policy tightening would be appropriate when the Fed "has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term." Maybe more importantly though the updated economic forecasts revealed officials now foresee the rising US Dollar serving as a significant headwind to exports and thus a potential drag on growth as well as inflation. Officials also adjusted their outlook for remaining slack in the labor market; forecasts for the long-run level of the unemployment rate shifted down a couple of tenths of a percent. Yellen affirmed that every meeting starting in June will be a "live" meeting for considering rate lift off, but indicated a number of reservations about wage growth, low inflation, and the strong dollar, leaving most analysts saying she was more dovish than they had hoped.

The impact of the brutal winter weather in the US showed up in housing data this week. February housing starts dropped 17% from January to an annualize rate of 897K, while building permits hit a nine-month low of 1.09M. Permits grew slightly over the January rate, although the bulk of permits were for multi-family units, with continued softness in single-family permits. Homebuilder confidence dipped lower than expected in March. The NAHB index of homebuilder sentiment fell for the third straight month and missed expectations. Despite the data homebuilders KB Home and Lennar reported solid Q1 results and suggested the spring selling season is getting off to a solid start.

Greece and its European patrons remain locked in contentious negotiations. Greece is at the very edge of solvency, a position the Europeans appear to be using for maximum advantage to squeeze more reforms out of Athens and beat back Syriza's electoral pledges to end austerity. Right now the consensus is that Greece has enough funds to pay debt coming due in March but may run out of cash in April, though it may unlock a few billion more euros at next week's Eurogroup meeting. On Friday, German press sources were reporting that German Finance Minister Schaeuble expected Greece to be ultimately forced out of the Eurozone even as Chancellor Merkel still wanted to keep Greece in the monetary union for political reasons.

On Monday Russian President Putin appeared at a press conference with Kyrgyz President Atambayev, breaking an 11-day absence from public life. During the period, wild conspiracy theories circulated in media and the internet about a possible power struggle among the various political factions in the Russian leadership, with some analysts suggesting that a slow-motion coup was underway. Responding briefly to the chatter, Putin noted "without gossip, life would be boring."

Iran and the P5+1 group appeared to edge closer to a nuclear deal. Diplomats suggest the two sides should iron out most of their remaining differences over weekend, but another round of talks likely will be needed to seal any deal. Despite the prospect of Iranian oil spilling back onto the market, Brent moved higher this week, from lows around $55 as high as $56.80 on dollar weakness stemming from the Fed decision. WTI slipped into the low $40's on Tuesday but closed out the week at around $46/barrel.

Scandinavian central banks behaved unpredictably this week in rate actions. On Wednesday, Sweden's Riksbank delivered an unscheduled interest rate cut and expanded its QE bond purchase plan. The Riksbank cut its benchmark repo rate to -0.25% from -0.10% and expanded its bond-buying program by 30 billion kronor, adding to the 10 billion kronor in purchases that started last month. Norway's central bank arrested the slide in its currency by refraining from an expected 25 basis point rate cut on Thursday. Governor Olsen explained that the economy has performed better than was feared, and while rates could still be cut if needed, the central bank has not considered any additional measures beyond a rate action.

Valeant clinched its deal to acquire Salix Pharmaceuticals, raising its offer by about a billion dollars in a new deal that knocked out rival bidder Endo International. Valeant hiked its all-cash bid to $173/share, or about $11.1 billion total, up from its original offer of $158/share. Mall operator Simon Property raised its offer for Macerich to $95.50 from $91 just three days after it rejected Simon's earlier offer and adopted measures to prevent a hostile takeover. Analysts had suggested Macerich would not be satisfied with much less than $100/share, and shares of MAC fell as low as $84 as investors doubted the board would embrace Simon's "best and final" offer.

The Shanghai Composite had its best week of the year, rising over 7% to close above 3,600, the highest level in nearly 7 years. China Premier Li helped spark the rally at a press conference on Monday, promising more substantial fiscal support if the economy slows too much, especially given that recent measures were not considered very potent. February power consumption, which is one of Premier Li's favored economic indicators, slowed to just 2.5% from 3.3% last month and 3.8% in 2014. The Premier's promise to build more affordable housing was also particularly timely as this week's price data showed growing imbalances in the property sector - across the top 70 cities, February prices fell m/m for the 10th straight time and the y/y decline widened by 0.6pts to -5.7%.

In Japan, the BOJ policy statement was largely a reiteration of the prior month, maintaining annual rate of monetary base increase at ¥80T, and reiterating the economic assessment as continuing a moderate recovery trend. The biggest change in the statement pertained to inflation, as the BOJ scaled back its current CPI view to 0.0-0.5% from around 0.5% and the outlook for inflation to around 0% from prior assessment of "slow for time being." On Friday, Governor Kuroda reiterated his more optimistic stance that inflation will achieve the 2% target by the end of the intended FY15/16 period, just as the minutes from last month's meeting showed some growing concern related to the sustainability of the central bank's monthly JGB purchases. On Monday, the cabinet office is set to release its monthly economic assessment which local press speculated will show the first upgrade 8 months.

Mar 20 2015

To finish a good trading week on a just as pleasant note:

Very nice day with a lot of winning trades and just one stop, ending the good week.

Session Time: Fri Mar 20 00:00:00 2015
[09:22] {dino} gm
[09:22] {RonS} hi guys
[09:22] {dino} 3-6" snow coming my way (again)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  dino, ron :)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  sheesh
01[09:24] {@Threei}  all that snow ceased to be funny long ago
01[09:25] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -PRTA +40% (Phase 1 trial of PRX-002 shows positive results)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -SPEX +26% (update on litigation with VTech & Uniden)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -CTRP +20% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -ICLD +10% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -ICPT +8% (positive FLINT Phase 2b trial results for obeticholic acid)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -GMAN +7.5% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -BIIB +7.5% (positive Phase 1b BIIB037 Alzheimer's treatment)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -NKE +5% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -DRI +4.2% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -CMCM +3.6% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -MAC -8% (SPG increased offer to best and final at $95.50/shr vs. $91 prior)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -THRX -5.4% (momentum from yesterday's FDA decision on Breo Ellipta for children's asthma)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -YOKU -5% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -AKS -4.5% (guidance)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -TIF -3.6% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -ARG -2% (cut Q4 guidance)
[09:27] {RonS} mac knifed
[09:28] {dino} missing something, raised bid to 95 and drop?
[09:28] {RonS} 4/1 drop dead date after poison pills initiated...
01[09:30] {@Threei}  PRTA, some gap
[09:30] {dino} ty
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .30 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[09:32] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:34] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .65 break
01[09:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
[09:41] {dino} mac sm l .00
01[09:41] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .50 break
01[09:41] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[09:42] {@Threei}  to .56
01[09:45] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:46] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:46] {@Threei}  meh VXX
01[09:47] {@Threei}  1:3
01[09:47] {@Threei}  out .22
01[09:47] {@Threei}  1:4
[09:49] {dino} mac stop -.32
[09:50] {dino} cmcm sm l .62
[09:54] {dino} mac sm l .40
[09:55] {dino} prta nuts on p1
01[09:58] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .80 break
01[09:58] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[10:00] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:01] {@Threei}  PRTA CNBC's Cramer indicates will have the CEO on Mad Money later today
01[10:01] {@Threei}  that's when it drops dead
[10:02] {RonS} heard he said "wait for pullback", then it dropped
[10:02] {dino} phase 1, gut says buy puts
[10:03] {dino} out mac .81, +.41
[10:03] {RonS} what?  no big mac?
[10:04] {dino} vxx new 52 week low
01[10:04] {@Threei}  no, it's Royale with Cheese
[10:04] {dino} lol
[10:04] {dino} could go for quarter pounder w/cheese
01[10:05] {@Threei}  "Well, a Big Mac's a Big Mac, but they call it le Big-Mac"
[10:15] {RonS} sqm spike
[10:15] {RonS} biotech weak
[10:17] {dino} ?
[10:17] {RonS} ibb near day's lows...
[10:17] {RonS} Israel Chemicals say that they could be interested in SQM
[10:19] {RonS} IBB buyer of April 355x/340x put spread. 5,000 contracts for a net debit of about 3.05.
[10:22] {dino} cmcm stop .30 -.32
[10:23] {dino} anip drop
01[10:29] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .80 break
01[10:29] {@Threei}  .c .70
01[10:29] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[10:37] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:52] {dino} hate these gap up big opens
01[10:56] {@Threei}  phrase you'd be considered insane had you said it in 1994:
01[10:56] {@Threei}  Yelp says to try the gluten-free bison burger with kale and quinoa.
[10:57] {dino} tot spike
01[10:57] {@Threei}  I uploaded all my family pics to a cloud so I won't have to worry about data loss.
[10:58] {RonS} what happens when clouds rains?
01[10:59] {@Threei}  I have angry birds on my phone.
01[10:59] {@Threei}  The Queen of England photobombed a selfie.
[10:59] {RonS} sorry...compulsion...peckers in the hand, eh?
01[11:00] {@Threei}  lol
[11:02] {RonS} Market Internals update at 10:30ET - NYSE volume 440M shares, about 163% above its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 4.2:1.- NASDAQ volume 540M shares, about 36% above its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 2.1:1
01[11:02] {@Threei}  Equity markets are on a tear higher this morning, with European indices points off their highs and US indices seeing good gains in heavy volume (today is quad witching).
01[11:03] {@Threei}  . The Greece meeting has ended without any further resolutions, although there were mildly positive comments out of Chancellor Merkel, who seemed optimistic that Greece's new proposals would arrive next week and said she would have nothing to do with talk about a Greek EMU exit.
01[11:22] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .90 break
01[11:22] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[11:29] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:45] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .40 break
01[11:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[11:50] {@Threei}  1:1
[11:55] {dino} prta lower high lower lows
[12:07] {dino} nviv hl l .85
[12:21] {dino} prta lower low
01[12:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .60 break
01[12:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
[12:40] {dino} this prta, get to 35?
[12:40] {dino} riding puts
01[12:42] {@Threei}  looks like
01[12:43] {@Threei}  change to .50 break
01[12:52] {@Threei}  nah
[12:52] {dino} infa spike
[12:54] {RonS} infa takeover rumors
01[12:55] {@Threei}  INFA PE firms said to be preparing offers for the firm - financial press- Bidders said to include a consortium of Silver and Hellman & Friedman.
01[12:56] {@Threei}  [HLF] HLF Pershing's Ackman comments on L.A. court dismissal of shareholder suit this week, says the dismissal does not exonerate the firm or prove it is not a pyramid scheme
01[12:57] {@Threei}  (RU) US State Dept Spokesperson calls on Russia to halt sending weapons over the border into Ukraine
01[12:57] {@Threei}  Russia: well, if you won't, then who but us?
[13:00] {dino} infa sm s .67
[13:05] {dino} cov infa .30, +.37
01[13:06] {@Threei}  nice
[13:07] {dino} ty
01[13:08] {@Threei}  .40 was right entry to TWTR reversal
[13:09] {dino} ron, you finding many trades? you're not posting much lately
01[13:11] {@Threei} Short Setup: CELG  .70 break hl
[13:11] {RonS} not really
01[13:11] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
01[13:12] {@Threei}  1:1
[13:15] {RonS} gets tough for me when the scanner gets overrun by energy and biotech names
01[13:20] {@Threei}  rise up to challenge and buy some restaurant
01[13:20] {@Threei}  or the whole chain
01[13:20] {@Threei}  like MCD
[13:20] {dino} i was going to say quit whining
[13:20] {dino} vxx hit 24s
01[13:20] {@Threei} Short Setup: MCD  .40
01[13:20] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
[13:29] {dino} out fcx calls from yesterday, +.60 / 60%
[13:30] {RonS} gj... follow some guy on twitter that made $11k today on fcx calls from yesterday
[13:31] {dino} too bad it wasn't me, only 10 of those buggers
[13:31] {RonS} the dude swings a crazy heavy book in options
[13:31] {dino} indeed
[13:33] {dino} i'm trying to add 30% to my stock day trades, thru options
[13:33] {dino} in feb i blew that away, $10k
[13:34] {dino} right now in march, half way there, {1,500
[13:36] {RonS} he bot 400 may 20's for .57...partialed 50 @ .65, 50 @ .79, 50 @ .86....still holding the rest for now
[13:38] {dino} swinging a bigger account than i, most of my cash goesright back into forclosures. bidding a 25 acre lot w/house this weekend, should get it for around $80k. will break it up, the house land alone is worth $100k
[13:39] {dino} the land is wprth $100k, house probably $80k on 2 acres
[13:39] {RonS} unreal
[13:40] {dino} yeah, still crazy up here, lots of opportunities in foreclosures, should carry on for two more years
[13:40] {dino} if i get this one, it will be house #30 in 10 years
[13:41] {dino} want 100 flipped by time i turn 65, another 15 years
[13:43] {dino} best part is, i now have a gc who handles everything, most i do is send my son to mow the lawns
[13:43] {RonS} lol...the pro's around here do 6-15 at a time and turn them 3-4x every year...but there are years when they stop and walk away
[13:44] {dino} two at a time my max, tough to keep my head clear for trading above that number (worry about cash out there)
[13:45] {dino} but yeah, some of thoses pros are inbredible
[13:45] {dino} incredible
[13:45] {dino} those
[13:53] {RonS} they still make mistakes...guy bot house on next block...had to have put $50k into it...marked it up $130k...was going to get full price 2 days after went on merket...buyers wanted (and it needed) a new roof...seller said no...buyers walked... 2 weeks later interest rates moved up, and market softened...seller put on new roof and later cut his price $50k
01[13:55] {@Threei}  yikes
[13:56] {dino} yeah, its all a game. timing and luck play big part. i don't use the banks. i buy cash, but still hate to have it out there too long. typically i bi as is, cash, 20 close, clear tutle. it bumps a lot of theothers out right away
[13:56] {dino} bi=bid; tutly=title
[13:57] {dino} but yeah, every nowand then you get stuck, when that happens i go to a one year rental, then re-list after that. rental business here is brutal
[13:58] {cosmo} I like to be in cash at the end of the day
[13:58] {dino} with stocks, me too cosmo
[14:00] {cosmo} :) ...I've told that to realators though, with a streight face
[14:01] {dino} lol
01[14:01] {@Threei}  lol
01[14:02] {@Threei}  got a buddy in SD... man, I would love to have him trading stocks and being in sight all the time
01[14:03] {@Threei}  guy bought anfd sold two houses over last 9 years - both buys are at exact tops, sell at exact bottom
01[14:03] {@Threei}  perfect contrarian indicators
01[14:03] {@Threei}  -s
01[14:03] {@Threei}  just go against him, you'll never lose
[14:04] {dino} lol, thats my attorney, whenever he's getting back into stocks i know its time to get nervous
01[14:04] {@Threei}  and the amount of research he does to time his buys and sells, and confidence he has in them is beyond belief
[14:04] {cosmo} i can emphasize
[14:05] {cosmo} ...make it in stocks: loose it in RE
01[14:05] {@Threei}  I got married with less thinking than he puts into which website to open today for another step in research
01[14:05] {@Threei}  (with better success too)
01[14:11] {@Threei}  1:2  MCD
[14:11] {dino} gj
01[14:11] {@Threei}  decent day shapes up
01[14:11] {@Threei}  ty
[14:12] {dino} if i get out of these prta puts right, then yes
[14:18] {dino} friday afternoons, slowwwww
01[14:20] {@Threei}  1:3
01[14:20] {@Threei}  slowly climbing market... alqways like this
01[14:23] {@Threei}  1:4
[14:26] {dino} nice
01[14:27] {@Threei}  ty
[14:39] {RonS} crox spike
[15:03] {RonS} hey dino...
[15:04] {dino} yes
[15:06] {RonS} son-in-law works for dva in a fairly senior postion for a 33 yr old... he told me the day after earnings the ceo underplayed what they were doing... w/ the neg reaction in the stock i felt he did it on purpose so Buffet could increase his stake...
[15:07] {RonS} ...when buffet's holdings came out he in fact had increased them and dva got the run you see...
[15:08] {dino} stuff like that happens all the time i bet
[15:08] {RonS} ...today someone bought nearly 8000 apr 80 puts... possible could see some weakness here... fwiw
01[15:18] {@Threei}  no news that I see for this market retreat
[15:19] {RonS} "Reigning Boredom Causes Market Selloff"
01[15:20] {@Threei}  pretty good
[15:21] {dino} indeed
[15:22] {RonS} what upsets me is that the vxx made its move early and i see no play there...
[15:22] {dino} 30 or 60 day calls
[15:23] {RonS} ?
[15:23] {dino} just saying, if you think it goes up buy calls
[15:24] {RonS} was talking day trade...
[15:24] {dino} opps
[15:26] {RonS} $54 million bet:  http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2015/03/20/whopper-options-bet-against-vix-etf/
[15:31] {RonS} pulling the plug here... good weekend to all... it is 70 and sunny out there...   :)
[15:31] {dino} cya ron
01[15:33] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .60 break
01[15:34] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
[15:36] {dino} out prta puts from this morning, +1.20 / 36%
[15:39] {dino} with that trade, caling it a week, gn all
01[15:40] {@Threei}  me too
01[15:40] {@Threei}  have a great weekend
01[15:40] {@Threei}  see you Monday

Mar 19 2015

Nicely positive day, even though on a slowish side - but that's kind of normal lately. FCX was particularly good to us.

Session Time: Thu Mar 19 00:00:00 2015
[09:03] {dino} gm
01[09:03] {@Threei}  dino :)
01[09:17] {@Threei}  dino fell asleep
[09:19] {RonS} gm...apparently
01[09:19] {@Threei}  ron :)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -FOLD +26% (global regulatory update from EMA & FDA for Migalastat Fabry Monotherapy)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -HRTX +11% (disclosed positive Phase 1 HTX-11 data in post-op pain)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -GES +10% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -CBMX +9.5% (wins payor contract with InterWest HealthAddition)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -SMLR +8% (announced FDA clearance for next generation PAD testing system)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -NQ +7.5% (earnings; appointed Chun Ding new independent director)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -SCVL +7.3% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -RMGN -15% (signed non-binding LOI to sell airline media network business for $5.5M)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -APPS -8% (FY16 guidance & registered $400M mixed shelf)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -CNCE -6% (priced 3.3M share offering at $15.15/shr)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -POT -4.3% (Saskatchewan govt made changes to Potash taxation & initiates review; FY15 earnings cut by C$75-100M)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -HRZN -4% (priced 2.38M share offering at $13.95/shr)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -RTRX -3% (priced 6.8M share offering at $19/shr)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -WSM -3% (earnings)
01[09:33] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .50 break
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:37] {dino} rs sm l .24
01[09:38] {@Threei} Short Setup: MCD  .90 break
01[09:38] {@Threei}  ugh... late
01[09:43] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .60 break
01[09:44] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[09:46] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .55 break
01[09:46] {@Threei}  If holds  ,45
01[09:48] {@Threei}  FB got away
01[09:51] {@Threei}  no go VXX
[09:53] {dino} added some aug fcx calls
01[09:54] {@Threei} Short Setup: MCD  .75 break
01[09:54] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
01[09:58] {@Threei}  [FCX] Seeing early put activity following reports that production has been halted at Grasberg - 2100 weekly 16.5 puts trade at $0.31- Press reports have indicated workers have blocked access to the Indonesia unit for a fourth straight day
[09:59] {dino} ty, saw that
01[09:59] {@Threei} Long Setup:  JPM  .50 break
01[09:59] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[10:00] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:03] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .85 break
01[10:03] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
01[10:05] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:06] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:14] {@Threei}  nice run TWTR
01[10:15] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .33 break
01[10:15] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
[10:16] {dino} ll sm l .70
01[10:17] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:17] {@Threei}  (close enough
[10:29] {dino} not seeing much
[10:34] {dino} espr rocking again
01[10:34] {@Threei}  that's some move
[10:34] {RonS} unreal
01[10:43] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:43] {@Threei}  slow but sure
[10:56] {RonS} Diageo says it will put nutritional labels on beverages such as Smirnoff vodka, Tanqueray gin, and Guinness stout. http://bloom.bg/1I1zPxu
[10:59] {dino} blue spike
01[11:00] {@Threei}  nutritional label on vodka?
[11:01] {cosmo} Guinness makes sense though
01[11:02] {@Threei}  "Oh my, all these calories... I gotta quit drinking"
[11:06] {RonS} cndo becoming a house
[11:14] {RonS} hifr pulp
01[11:14] {@Threei}  Equities are trading lower this morning as market participants re-evaluate the macro picture in the wake of the Fed's new stance.
01[11:14] {@Threei}  what new stance?
[11:14] {RonS} lol
01[11:15] {@Threei}  "we are removing "patient" but that doesn't mean we are impatient"?
01[11:15] {@Threei}  give me that vodka bottle with new nutrition information on it...
01[11:16] {@Threei}  OK, next paragraph is about to trigger a bout of epilepsy:
01[11:16] {@Threei}  Markets are endlessly rehashing the FOMC statement and Fed Chair Yellen's words from yesterday. Yellen couched the removal of the patient language in pretty clear terms: "just because we removed the word patient from the statement doesn't mean we're going to be impatient."
[11:16] {dino} talking heads
01[11:16] {@Threei}  somebody shoot me
[11:17] {cosmo} vodka shooter
01[11:17] {@Threei}  The gargantuan five big-figure move in EUR/USD (a round trip from 1.0650 to 1.1050 and back again, the second broadest one-day range seen since 2000) continues to echo through FX markets this morning. Analysts suggest the huge move, sparked by the Fed tempering its enthusiasm for US growth and imminent policy changes, was a bit of a one-off event given the late US afternoon usually has pretty thin FX liquidity conditions.
01[11:18] {@Threei}  WTI crude jumped from below $42.50 to above $45 at the close of cash equity trading yesterday afternoon. But like the euro rally, oil prices retraced the gains. Brent rose from $54 to nearly $57 and has also retraced nearly all its post-FOMC gains. As of writing, WTI is around $43.17 and Brent is around $54.40.
01[11:18] {@Threei}  lol
[11:20] {dino} going to the 30s
01[11:22] {@Threei}  chart sure says so
[11:29] {RonS} Islamic State says it is behind deadly attack on Tunisia museum in online recording
[11:29] {dino} shocking
[11:55] {dino} oled drop
[11:57] {dino} espr up another 2 bucks
[12:00] {dino} taking a lunch break
01[12:22] {@Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .30 break
01[12:22] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[12:38] {@Threei}  1:1
01[13:07] {@Threei}  hah... blast from the past
[13:07] {RonS} ye olde boat dude...
01[13:12] {@Threei}  he is content with letting us see him, but talking to us is beneath him {GGG}
[13:13] {RonS} must be on moot...
[13:13] {RonS} ...doesn't want to become relevant...
01[13:14] {@Threei}  maybe he is a ghost?
[13:15] {RonS} figures...given where he works...
01[13:15] {@Threei}  yeah, short distance to cross
[13:16] {Chaeron} HI EVERYBODY!
01[13:16] {@Threei}  not a ghost
01[13:16] {@Threei}  hey :)
[13:16] {Chaeron} sorry... had a call... someone actually to talk to
[13:16] {Chaeron} don't let me interrupt :)
01[13:16] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .60 break
01[13:16] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[13:17] {@Threei}  no, that's OK... we understand the striking difference between ourselves and someone to actually talk to :)
01[13:18] {@Threei}  see private message chaeron
01[13:20] {@Threei}  1:1
[13:55] {dino} adpt spike
01[13:57] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .50 break
[14:07] {dino} they can't take it down, my gut says up
01[14:09] {@Threei}  yeah
01[14:09] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[14:09] {dino} spxl sm l .54
01[14:15] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .80 break
[14:18] {dino} tsla drop
[14:21] {dino}  agio spike
[14:21] {dino} spxl stop .24 -.30
01[14:28] {@Threei}  IWM is valid
[14:32] {dino} rinsed
[14:38] {Chaeron} 3i kicked me?
[14:40] {Chaeron} just when I was going to say bye all... keep countin' the benjamins... make the stacks so phat the rubberband breaks, yo....
01[14:40] {@Threei}  lol
01[14:41] {@Threei}  no kicking:
01[14:41] {@Threei}  [14:38] * Chaeron (Mibbit@jas-EE75B5F4.public.wayport.net) Quit
01[14:41] {@Threei}  see?
01[14:41] {@Threei}  on your own volition
01[14:51] {@Threei}  1:1
[15:12] {RonS} unreal:  White House: US 'to reevaluate' backing for Israel at UN
01[15:12] {@Threei}  eeck
01[15:13] {@Threei}  (IL) Israel's Netanyahu: A two state solution is possible, just not now - Reminder: Ahead of the recent elections Netanyahu claimed that if he were reelected, he would not allow a two state solution under his watch
01[15:13] {@Threei}  so, this is Obama's reaction on Bibi's re-election?
01[15:14] {@Threei}  unbelievable
[15:14] {RonS} yep, childish temper tantrum
01[15:15] {@Threei}  such vindictiveness for a statesman
[15:16] {RonS} meantime kowtow to every despot on the planet...
[15:21] {dino} idiot obummer
01[15:26] {@Threei}  wow... only in Victoria: https://www.facebook.com/ilovedowntownvictoria/photos/a.134780149874999.20063.123641760988838/953242428028763/?type=1&theater
01[15:28] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .85 break
01[15:28] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
01[15:29] {@Threei}  change to .80
01[15:30] {@Threei}  If holds  .73
01[15:33] {@Threei}  1:1
01[15:46] {@Threei}  ok, ending on this
01[15:46] {@Threei}  positive day again
01[15:46] {@Threei}  thank you, have a good evening
01[15:46] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow

Mar 18 2015

That was a very unusual day. Started with a few stops, and it seemed like waiting for FOMC made it untradable. Every trade after the Fed was profitable though, from 1:2 to 1:4, and finished the day positive. No complaints.


Session Time: Wed Mar 18 00:00:00 2015
01[09:11] {@Threei}  morning guys
01[09:12] {@Threei}  we managed to finish mini-vacation on Fed day, lol
[09:12] {RonS} hello...ya...
[09:13] {RonS} dino is a bad planner...
01[09:14] {@Threei}  unless it's all a part of a bigger plan, and he decided to stay on Jamaica forever
01[09:19] {@Threei}  maybe sending him a booklet Expats in Jamaica was not the best idea
[09:21] {cosmo} hmm, maybe Jamaica needs a good NFL team
[09:21] {cosmo} they can have the Chargers, btw
01[09:28] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -RTRX +38% (FDA approved Cholbam for rare bile acid synthesis disorders)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -VTSS +37% (being acquired by MSCC for $5.28/shr)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -ZQK +9% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -EJ +5% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -HLF +4% (LA Federal judge dismissed shareholders' pyramid scheme suit)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -ORCL +2.6% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -MU +1.7% (positive broker commentary)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -NKTR -15% (NKTR-102 Phase 3 study showed no statistical significance in survivability)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -ADBE -5% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -CYTX -4.5% (amended securities purchase agreement)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -ANTH -3.4% (priced 5.55M shares at $4.50/shr)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -FDX -2% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -DRYS -1.5% (filed $1B mixed securities shelf and $180M secondary offering)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -STJ -1% (negative broker commentary)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  dino... suntan must be an inch deep by now!
[09:31] {dino} lol, gm all, back at my turret. hope you did well while i was away
01[09:31] {@Threei}  we took vacation too
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .55 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
[09:33] {dino} see my veev calls sold while away, +.60/34%
01[09:34] {@Threei}  sheesh... he gets suntan and makes money
01[09:34] {@Threei}  borders with total indecency
[09:38] {dino} lucky
01[09:39] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .80 break
01[09:39] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[09:39] {@Threei}  no go VXX
01[09:42] {@Threei}  grrr
01[09:44] {@Threei} Short Setup: JPM  .40 break
01[09:44] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[09:49] {@Threei}  stop to .46
[09:52] {dino} irbt sm l .31
[09:56] {dino} lcrx sm l .95
01[09:56] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MCD  .55 break
01[09:56] {@Threei}  that was too fast
[09:56] {dino} why is nktr holding
01[09:56] {@Threei}  teleported to above 1:1
[09:57] {dino} lrcx that was
01[10:04] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .50 break
01[10:04] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[10:10] {@Threei}  not getting rhythm right
[10:10] {dino} ;lrcx stop .65 -.30
01[10:15] {@Threei} Long Setup:  BP  .30 break
01[10:15] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
[10:16] {RonS} unconfirmed chatter from london desks cvx to buy bp for $48/sh
01[10:19] {@Threei}  (SA) Saudi prince Turki al-Faisal: Saudi Arabia won't interfere in the oil market any time soon
01[10:19] {@Threei}  Putin: you bastard...
01[10:30] {@Threei}  *(US) DOE CRUDE: +9.6M V +4.0ME
[10:32] {dino} mmi drop
[10:32] {dino} sm l .86
01[10:39] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .50 break
01[10:39] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[10:42] {@Threei}  General Motors will slash production in Russia and pull its mass-market Opel brand completely in the face of plummeting sales in the economically troubled country.
01[10:43] {@Threei}  ok, this is sad... I say let's sell as many GM cars over there as possible
[10:43] {dino} out mmi .20, +.34
[10:43] {cosmo} Why GM?
01[10:44] {@Threei}  because they are crap?
[10:45] {cosmo} ...and russia could be like cuba
[10:45] {cosmo} about cars anyway
01[10:45] {@Threei}  sans palm trees
[10:46] {cosmo} = cell phone tower trees maybe?
01[10:47] {@Threei}  masked as birch trees
01[10:47] {@Threei}  Invalidated  VXX
[10:53] {RonS} dino, look at that espr...been crazy and today really unreal as they announced coming w/ secondary last night w/ no price set...never seen anything like it
[10:53] {dino} ok
[10:53] {dino} wow +30 in 5 dats
[10:54] {RonS} not really suggesting you trade it...just interesting
[10:54] {dino} days
[10:55] {dino} phase 2 pos results
[10:56] {RonS} hearing pac crest defending lrcx...prob getting this late...
01[11:00] {@Threei}  no, 10:55
01[11:00] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .60 break
01[11:01] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
[11:01] {dino} spxl sm l .87
[11:02] {dino} espr just up, not trading it
01[11:04] {@Threei}  WLL Hearing chatter that WLL receiving strong bids as it explores options
01[11:04] {@Threei}  no go
01[11:04] {@Threei}  this fed day is not mine
[11:11] {RonS} hearing China Times reporting fb approval imminent by govt
01[11:12] {@Threei}  FB Reportedly Chinese regulators are preparing to approve Facebook in China
01[11:12] {@Threei}  Link: http://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20150318002326-260407
[11:13] {RonS} lol...it's in Chinese
01[11:13] {@Threei}  sorry... :)
[11:13] {RonS} Homer Simpson...Doh!
01[11:14] {@Threei}  hehe
01[11:15] {@Threei}  FB is running
[11:15] {dino} stop spxl .68 -.19
[11:15] {dino} took .01 fb off your comment
01[11:16] {@Threei}  wtg
[11:16] {dino} fb to .49
[11:17] {dino} to .56
[11:17] {dino} out .55, +.54
[11:17] {dino} ty 3i
01[11:18] {@Threei}  :)
[11:20] {dino} taking a break
[11:30] {RonS} ocn halt...news pending
01[11:54] {@Threei}  [OCN] Intends to Sell $9.6B Portfolio of Mortgage Servicing Rights to Green Tree (WAC) - WAC signed an agreement in principle for the sale by Ocwen of residential mortgage servicing rights on a portfolio consisting of approximately 55,500 largely performing loans owned by Freddie Mac with a total principal balance of approximately $9.6 billion.
01[11:55] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .60 break
01[11:55] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[12:07] {@Threei}  Equity trading volumes are subdued this morning and equities are in the red as participants await the Fed statement and Yellen's press conference later this afternoon.
01[12:08] {@Threei}  WTI crude stabbed toward $42 before ahead of the DoE inventory report this morning, and trading was volatile on release of the data. Inventories builds were more than twice the expected amount. Last night the API report disclosed the biggest build in inventories in four weeks. Brent has edged higher during the US session, rising to around $54.50 from below $53 earlier.
01[12:13] {@Threei}  I severely dislike today
01[12:29] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  80 break
01[12:29] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[12:33] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[12:44] {@Threei}  valid again
01[12:47] {@Threei}  sheesh... bid held
01[12:48] {@Threei}  A NATO patrol intercepted Russian fighter jets over the Baltic Sea, Lithuanian authorities said on March 18
01[12:50] {@Threei}  (CA) Canada PM Harper: Very carefully observing lending levels in housing market, not planning any immediate action right now - Canadian banks remain well capitalized
01[12:50] {@Threei}  what is the best 5 years fixed rate from major banks in US right now?
[12:51] {RonS} about 2.2%
01[12:55] {@Threei}  that's low... our best is 2.79
01[13:07] {@Threei}  took scalp on FB
01[13:07] {@Threei}  needed something to qork
01[13:07] {@Threei}  work too
[13:30] {dino} .
[13:32] {RonS} ll jiggy...sbux up on 2:1 split announcement
[13:35] {dino} was just looking at ll
[13:41] {dino} out irbt .77, +.47
01[13:44] {@Threei}  wtg
[13:44] {dino} ty, took all day
01[13:45] {@Threei}  (IS) White House is reportedly planning to re-evaluate peace strategy for the Middle East
01[13:45] {@Threei}  as in, get some?
[13:45] {dino} lol
[13:49] {RonS} gawd, can you imagine Hillary as Prez?...she looks so tired and old...ugliest thing since Golda Meir but Golda never looked tired
[13:50] {dino} she looks like she could be on the walking dead
[13:50] {RonS} lol
[13:50] {RonS} perfect
01[13:53] {@Threei}  well... will reps come up with someone who could win?
[13:55] {RonS} import Bibi?
01[13:55] {@Threei}  lol
01[13:55] {@Threei}  or at leats hire him as a campaign manager
[13:56] {dino} 3i, i don't think they can get anybod that can beat the liberal media coverage
01[13:59] {@Threei}  so... we are doomed for another 8 years?
01[13:59] {@Threei}  TSLA New Jersey Gov Christie to sign bill authorizing Tesla direct sales
01[14:00] {@Threei}  *(US) FOMC HOLDS FED FUNDS TARGET AT 0.25%: REMOVES "PATIENT" LANGUAGE
01[14:01] {@Threei}  The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.
01[14:02] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .60 break
01[14:03] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[14:03] {@Threei}  1:1
01[14:04] {@Threei}  1:2
[14:04] {dino} w/you
[14:05] {dino} 8 years, no, hillary won't live that long, looks like shes 90 now
[14:05] {dino} out vxx .85, +.24
01[14:05] {@Threei}  1:3
01[14:06] {@Threei}  finally something decent
[14:09] {dino} wow 250 point swing
[14:09] {RonS} now that she has been removed, where will Patience go?
01[14:13] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .50 break
01[14:13] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[14:13] {@Threei}  change to .40 break
[14:14] {dino} vxx banging s3
[14:15] {RonS} tick +1341
01[14:16] {@Threei}  change to .30 break
01[14:16] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[14:19] {@Threei}  Janus' Bill Gross: New key word in Fed policy statement is "prudence"; Somewhat surprised by the more dovish statement - CNBC
[14:20] {RonS} isn't that patience sister?
[14:20] {dino} thats just gross
01[14:20] {@Threei}  lol
01[14:20] {@Threei}  Comparative analysis of current vs Jan FOMC statements: Drops "patient", rates now dependent on employment and inflation data; Revises down economic growth language; gives nod to strong dollar by noting weaker exports; indicates inflation has likely bottomed out; says explicitly no rate hike in April
01[14:21] {@Threei}  gravity time, SPY
01[14:21] {@Threei}  IMO, this whole "language change" thing is overestimated
[14:22] {dino} vxx l .35
[14:22] {RonS} ya think...amazing after 2000 years we still listen to an Oracle of Delphi
01[14:23] {@Threei}  lol
01[14:23] {@Threei}  1:1
01[14:23] {@Threei}  1:2
[14:23] {dino} out vxx .49, +.14
[14:24] {dino} strong $ and every other country weakening, how can they raise
[14:24] {RonS} crude explede to $46.65, now .35
[14:24] {dino} will put us out of business
01[14:24] {@Threei}  doubt they will
[14:29] {RonS} someone bought $3 mil of UUP puts yesterday...getting paid in spades with this $ weakness
[14:30] {RonS} yellen commences
[14:31] {RonS} wow espr 106
[14:32] {RonS} lol...oh no..."says removing patient does't mean fed to ne impatient"
[14:32] {RonS} -n +b
01[14:33] {@Threei}  lol
[14:34] {RonS} poor Greeks...went to Oracle...always came back sayin...wtf?
[14:34] {dino} lol
01[14:36] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  81 break
01[14:36] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
[14:38] {RonS} hearing large call buying now vix in apr 17 calls
01[14:41] {@Threei}  1:1
01[14:42] {@Threei}  that's one weird day... usually things work before Fed, become unreadable after. Today is just thwe opposite
[14:44] {dino} gotta hop for 45, back around 3:30
01[14:45] {@Threei}  some suntan touch-up?
01[14:49] {@Threei}  1:2
[14:55] {RonS} good one
[14:58] {RonS} wow espr new hod 108.50
01[14:58] {@Threei}  ty'
01[15:01] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .50 break
01[15:02] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[15:04] {@Threei}  1:1
01[15:05] {@Threei}  1:2
01[15:05] {@Threei}  (close enough)
01[15:05] {@Threei}  fixed the day, lol
01[15:12] {@Threei}  out .95
01[15:15] {@Threei}  too soon
[15:15] {RonS} wow
[15:24] {dino} .
[15:25] {cosmo} good point
01[15:26] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .05 break
01[15:32] {@Threei}  half out
01[15:33] {@Threei}  1:1
01[15:38] {@Threei}  1:2
[15:38] {dino} vxx hit 52 week low today
[15:38] {RonS} good enough, out...thanks 3i
01[15:39] {@Threei}  :)
[15:39] {RonS} hearing more vix call buying apr and june 16 and 17
[15:40] {RonS} need to leave...see all tomorrow
[15:41] {dino} ron leaves so fast, its like he's skipping out on a dinner check
01[15:41] {@Threei}  lol
01[15:41] {@Threei}  OK, finishing here
01[15:42] {@Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow