Markets brush off Russia mutiny and central bank chiefs’ hawkish warnings

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Markets brush off Russia mutiny and central bank chiefs’ hawkish warnings

6/30/2023 5:16:44 PM

Stock market trading in June came to a close with a bang, as the FOMO trade drove the S&P to a fresh one-year high, and the Nasdaq had its best first half of the year in the index’s 52-year history. Inflation data was mostly in line with expectations or lower, while consumer sentiment readings were generally positive, allowing the risk-on trade to proceed without hesitation. Some business and manufacturing data was on the weaker side, notably the German June IFO survey hitting its lowest since last November.

The abortive coup in Russia this past weekend didn’t seem to faze markets as the ‘internal matter’ was apparently resolved without bloodshed. A rare public gathering of central bank chiefs from the Fed, ECB, BOE and BOJ confirmed that they largely agree that the inflation fight is far from over and more tightening is to be expected, while they all await the full transmission of the rapid tightening that has already occurred over the last year. Despite the hawkish tone of the central bankers, market participants continued to make bets that the policy turn could come quicker. Even the White House chief economic advisor Brainard, freshly off her FOMC stint, suggested there is reason to believe inflation can get to near the 2% target before the 2024 elections next November. Despite the regional bank turmoil earlier this year, the annual Fed bank stress tests rubber stamped the nation’s biggest banks as safe again, allowing a number of them to pursue dividend and share buyback increases.

On Friday, Bitcoin swooned below $30K, following a report that the SEC has told exchanges that recent spot bitcoin ETF filings are “inadequate” and would have to be refiled with more information. Crude futures were modestly higher on the week following a big drawdown in weekly DOE crude stocks data. For the week, the S&P gained 2.4%, the DJIA rose 2%, and the Nasdaq added 2.2%.

Some big corporate names across several sectors reported shaky quarterly numbers and guidance this week. Micron cuts its PC unit volume expectations for the current fiscal year and warned that reduced wafer starts will continue well into calendar 2024. General Mills announced mixed results and warned that consumers are 'increasingly cautious about their financial future.’ Walgreens shares got booted to a 52-week low after it missed on bottom line expectations, citing challenging consumer and macroeconomic conditions, and lower COVID-19 vaccine and testing volumes. By contrast, Delta Airlines soared on strong quarterly results and raised guidance, saying the carrier is seeing no signs of demand letting up. Troubled regional bank PacWest got some positive feedback after announcing it would unload additional loan portfolios worth several billion dollars.

In deals news, Overstock shares surged after it won the auction for the IP of Bed Bath & Beyond, and immediately announced it would rebrand to the newly acquired name. During the week there were signs of green shoots in the commercial real estate market with a lot of dealmaker getting done. Prologis acquired a $3.1B industrial logistics property portfolio from Blackstone, while SL Green sold a nearly 50% interest in a 1.8M sq. ft. Park Avenue office property to a US affiliate of Japanese firm Mori Trust Co.


SUN 6/25
(RU) WAGNER CHIEF PRIGOZHIN: CONFIRMS WAGNER IS RETURNING ITS CONVOYS TO BASES TO AVOID BLOODSHED; Kremlin confirms Belarus Pres Lukashenko mediated a deal with Wagner chief Prigozhin, who will not be criminally charged
(DE) Germany's right-wing AfD party has won its first-ever district election for local governing post in Eastern Germany's town Sonneberg - press
(CN) China Foreign Ministry: China supports Russia in maintaining national stability - statement

MON 6/26
(CN) China May smartphone shipments 25.2M, +22.6% y/y; May YTD smartphone shipments 108M -0.7% y/y - CAICT
AML.UK Partners with Lucid on ultra-luxury high performance electric vehicles; Aston Martin to issue 28.4M new shares to Lucid with up to $323M in cash payments
(DE) GERMANY JUN IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE SURVEY: 88.5 V 90.6E (lowest since Nov 2022)
PACW Ares Management acquires $3.5B lender finance portfolio from PacWest
PACW Discloses entered into a purchase agreement to sell a portfolio of Lender Finance loans for $2.0B – filing
PLD Confirms to acquire 14MSF Blackstone industrial portfolio in $3.1B cash deal
CCL Reports Q2 -$0.31 v -$0.35e, Rev $4.91B v $4.79Be; Bookings and customer deposits hitting all-time highs, clearly gaining momentum on an upward trajectory
(US) JUNE DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY: -23.2 V -20.0E
LLY Data show Retatrutide shot gave patients at least 5% of body weight and an average of 24.2% at the highest dose - press

TUES 6/27
JD.UK AGM Update: There was further positive trading in all regions through May with overall growth in organic sales at 8% cc. Positive trends have continued through June in the Group's businesses in the UK, Europe and Asia Pacific, but were offset by 'some softening' in North America
UBS CEO: Credit Suisse integration is going very well; Sees the future as heading in the direction of blockchain; UBS is using AI to improve service for clients
(RU) Russia Security Service confirms to drop criminal cases over Wagner mutiny; Russia Defense Ministry said Wagner group is preparing to hand over heavy military equipment to Russia officials - press
WBA Reports Q3 $1.00 v $1.07e, Rev $35.4B v $33.9Be; Cuts FY23 guidance citing challenging consumer and macroeconomic conditions, and lower COVID-19 vaccine and testing volumes
DAL Raises FY23 EPS $6.00 v $5.63e (prior $5.00-6.00), Rev +17-20% (prior 15-20%), implies $53.8-55.2B v $55.3Be; Affirms FY24 targets
DAL Raises Q2 Rev $2.25-2.50 v $2.11e, Rev +17-18% y/y, operating margin 16% (prior $2.00-2.25, Rev +15-17% y/y, operating margin +14-16%)
SNX Reports Q2 $2.43 v $2.50e, Rev $14.1B v $14.4Be; Guides Q3 weak as industry continued to be impacted by post-pandemic declines in demand for PC ecosystem products
(CA) CANADA MAY CPI M/M: 0.4% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 3.4% V 3.4%E
(US) MAY PRELIMINARY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: +1.7% V -0.8%E; DURABLES (EX-TRANSPORTATION): 0.6% V 0.0%E
LEA Raises FY23 Rev $22.4-23.1B (prior $21.2-22.2B) v $22.1Be, adj EBITDA $1.61-1.74B (prior $1.48-1.68B) - PR ahead of Investor Day
(US) JUNE RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: -7 V -12E; New orders stays neg; Index for future local
(US) JUNE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 109.7 V 104.0E (highest since Jan 2022)
005930.KR Unveils foundry vision in the AI Era at Samsung Foundry Forum 2023; Details plans for the mass production of its 2nm process; Expects mass production of 1.4nm, called SF1.4, in 2027; Focusing on increasing its manufacturing capacity in the US
(US) US considers new curbs on AI chip exports to China; Could be announced in early July

WED 6/28
DSFIR.NL Reports prelim Q2 pro-forma adj EBITDA €400-420M citing weakening of the vitamin markets which further deteriorated during June (normally very strong month); Decided to accelerate a series of actions to restructure its vitamin business a
(US) Credit Suisse analysts suggest US recession might not hit until 2026; Expect US 3M-10Y yield curve will un-invert for the first time in June 2026 (prior expected Jan 2025)
2317.TW Chairman Liu: Apple not planning to move its supply chain out of mainland China - press
(DE) German Rhine river's low water levels of ~135-140cm (v 350cm in May and 115cm y/y) despite recent heavy rains said to be again preventing cargo vessels from sailing fully loaded - press
(IT) ITALY JUN PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.0% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 6.4% V 6.7%E (4th consecutive deceleration of annual pace which is lowest since Apr 2022)
GIS Reports Q4 $1.12 v $1.05e, Rev $5.03B v $5.18Be; Raises quarterly dividend 9.3% to $0.59 from $0.54 (indicated yield 2.92%); Notes its consumers are 'increasingly cautious about their financial future'
CP Canadian Pacific Kansas City, CSX Corp and Genesee & Wyoming Inc. reach agreement to create new direct connection and corridor linking Mexico, Texas and the US Southeast
(US) Sec of State Blinken: Seeing internal cracks emerge in Russia; Ukraine counteroffensive's major events will take place over the coming weeks and months
(US) Nevada reports May casino gaming Rev $1.29B, -0.8% y/y, Las Vegas strip Rev $716.0M, -2.1% y/y
(US) Fed Chair Powell: Policy hasn't been restrictive for very long; may not be restrictive enough; Would not take moving at consecutive meetings off the table; Significant probability we get a downturn but its not the most likely case - ECB Forum
(EU) ECB's Lagarde: If baseline stands we will likely hike in July; Not seeing enough tangible evidence of falling underlying inflation - panel comments from Sintra forum
(US) DOE CRUDE: -9.6M V -1ME; GASOLINE: +0.6M V 0ME; DISTILLATE: +0.1M V +0.5ME
UPS Teamsters union [~340K workers] asks UPS for best and final offer by Friday, June 30th; Notes strike is “imminent”
OSTK Plans to re-launch the Bed Bath & Beyond brand in Canada and US; Reports Q2 QTD Rev -20%s y/y citing 'highly competitive promotional and marketing environment within a challenging economic backdrop'
MU Exec: Cuts FY23 PC unit volume outlook down low-double digits y/y (prior 'down mid-single digits'); Expect reduced wafer starts will continue well into calendar 2024 - earnings call comments
(US) Fed bank stress test results: All 23 banks passed this year's stress tests; Collective losses would be at $541B in a severe recession scenario

THRS 6/29
(DE) GERMANY JUN CPI NORTH RHINE WESTPHALIA M/M: +0.3% V -0.2% PRIOR; Y/Y: 6.2% V 5.7% PRIOR
(US) Fed Chair Powell: Strong majority of Fed policymakers expect 2 or more rate hikes by year end; Have NOT taken consecutive moves off the table; Risk of overdoing tightening is NOT in balance yet - text release
(ES) SPAIN JUN PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.6% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 1.9% V 1.7%E (first EU state to get Y/Y pace below the 2% ECB target)
(UK) MAY MORTGAGE APPROVALS: 50.5K V 49.7KE
Reportedly WHO cancer research agency will issue report next month that will declare that artificial sweetener aspartame is a possible carcinogen - press
AMZN FTC plans to file far-reaching antitrust suit, its fourth, focused on Amazon's core online marketplace - financial press
(DE) GERMANY JUN PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.3% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 6.4% V 6.3%E
(US) Q1 FINAL GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: 2.0% V 1.4%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 4.2% V 3.8%E
(US) Q1 FINAL GDP PRICE INDEX: 4.1% V 4.2%E; CORE PCE Q/Q: 4.9% V 5.0%E
(US) White house economic advisor Brainard: Sees Inflation continuously improving in H2; Reason to believe we can get inflation near 2% before the 2024 election
(US) MAY PENDING HOME SALES M/M: -2.7% V -0.5%E; Y/Y: -20.8% V -20.5%E
(US) Reportedly US is close to approving long-range ATACMS to assist Ukraine in fight - WSJ
NKE Reports Q4 $0.66 v $0.67e, Rev $12.8B v $12.6Be
NKE Guides FY24 Rev growth in mid-single digits (v +6%e); gross margin growth 140-160 bps y/y; Notes strong consumer demand in North America; Chinese consumer confidence is rebounding - earnings call
(US) Fed releases factors affecting reserve balances (H.4.1): Discount window borrowing $3.21B v $3.21B w/w; Banks have borrowed $103.1B v $102.7B w/w from new BTFP facility [8th week of consecutive increase]
(JP) JAPAN JUN TOKYO CPI Y/Y: 3.1% V 3.4%E; CPI (EX-FRESH FOOD) Y/Y: 3.2% V 3.4%E
(CN) CHINA JUN MANUFACTURING PMI (GOVT OFFICIAL): 49.0 V 49.0E [3rd straight contraction]
(JP) Japan Fin Min Suzuki: Sees sudden and one-sided FX moves; Will respond appropriately [**Note: comments after USD/JPY rose above ¥145]

FRI 6/30
(UK) Q1 FINAL GDP Q/Q: 0.1% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 0.2% V 0.2%E
(UK) JUN NATIONWIDE HOUSE PRICE INDEX M/M: +0.1% V -0.2%E; Y/Y: -3.5% V -4.0%E
DE) GERMANY JUN NET UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +28.0K V +14.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS RATE: 5.7% V 5.6%E
AAPL Rises to $190.80 during premarket session (1st company to hit $3T market cap mark)
(EU) EURO ZONE JUN CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: 5.5% V 5.6%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 5.4% V 5.5%E (1st acceleration in Core CPI pace in 3 months)
(EU) EURO ZONE MAY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 6.5% V 6.5%E
(CN) China June new home sales in key cities -25% y/y v +22% y/y prior - CRIC
D Cuts Q2 $0.44-0.50 v $0.65e (prior $0.58-0.68) citing estimated impact of historically mild weather, unplanned outages at the Millstone Power Station
(US) MAY PERSONAL INCOME: 0.4% V 0.3%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: 0.1% V 0.2%E
(US) MAY PCE DEFLATOR M/M: 0.1% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 3.8% V 3.8%E
Reportedly SEC tells exchanges that recent spot bitcoin ETF filings are inadequate - press
(US) JUN CHICAGO PURCHASE MANAGER’S INDEX (PMI): 41.5 V 43.8E
(US) JUN FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 64.4 V 63.9E
(US) May Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE (m/m) +3.2% v +4.3% prior
(US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count: 674 v 682 prior (-1.2% w/w)

Bank of Canada and RBA issue surprise rate hikes despite some more signs of inflation easing

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Bank of Canada and RBA issue surprise rate hikes despite some more signs of inflation easing

6/9/2023 4:29:30 PM

Equity sentiment remained resilient this we week. Bulls championed improvement in the breadth of rising stocks away from the mega cap technology names that have powered nearly all the gains seen in 2023. Disinflationary forces continued show up not only in the economic data, but also in quarterly earnings reports and at corporate investor conferences. The prices paid component in the May ISM services data fell to the lowest reading since May 2020. Also weekly jobless claims hit the highest level since Oct 2021, suggesting the Fed's desired slowing of the labor market will lead to softening wage pressures. The notion of disinflation gaining traction overshadowed surprise rate hikes from both the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada with traders turning their attention to next week’s BOJ, ECB and Federal Reserve meetings. Even Saudi Arabia’s unilateral decision to cut oil production further in July had very little lasting effect on crude prices with WTI remaining mired near $70/barrel.

This underlying theme of slowing inflation was married with headlines suggesting China’s government continues to adopt new forms of stimulus to bolster disappointing economic growth, which provided further fodder for the bulls. The US 10-year yield closed the week up a few basis points while futures markets continued to project that the Fed will hold rates steady when the FOMC meeting concludes on Wednesday. By Friday, the S&P had rallied 20% off the October lows causing many Wall Street analysts to revisit their year-end targets, and pundits to ask if we have entered a new bull market. For the week, the S&P gained 0.4%, the DJIA rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq added 0.1%.

Regulatory action weighed heavily in corporate news this week, particularly in the crypto sector. The crypto-exchange market faced more uncertainty about its future after the SEC sues Binance and its CEO Zhao for violating US securities laws, alleging intermingling of funds. The SEC followed that up with a suit against Coinbase that alleged its acting as unregistered broker, securities exchange, and clearing agency. Several state AGs also piled on to Coinbase with their own legal actions. The long suffering meme stock Game Stop reported results and terminated its CEO in favor of Chairman Ryan Cohen, sending the stock tumbling double digits. Taiwan Semi shares gained ground despite trimming some guidance as a separate press report said the firm plans more price hikes of up to 6% starting early next year. There was volatility in the streaming sector as a report circulated that Amazon is considering an ad-supported tier for Prime Video and is in talks about adding Paramount+ and Max to Prime Video channels. Disney also got a boost by announcing that it would put its streaming service on Apple’s forthcoming AR/MR headset. Apple debuted the Vision Pro headset at its developers conference with great fanfare, showcasing an elegant wearable that appears to be leaps and bounds ahead of current rivals, though Apple shares sold off immediately after it revealed the eye-popping $3,500 starting price tag.

SUN 6/4
OPEC+ agreed to cut overall production targets from 2024 by a further total of 1.4M bpd; Saudi Arabia to voluntarily cut an additional 1M bpd oil production in July
TSM Reportedly plans to again raise prices by 3-6% from Jan 2024, relates to advanced technologies; Notes factors including rising costs - Taiwan press

MON 6/5
US big banks could face 20% boost to overall capital requirements; Regulators might propose the changes by as early as this month – WSJ
SEC sues Binance and CEO Zhao for violating US securities laws
(CH) SWISS MAY CPI M/M: 0.3% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 2.2% V 2.2%E
2317.TW Reports May (NT$) Rev 450.7B -9.5% y/y; May YTD 2.34B v 2.39B y/y; Affirms Q2 outlook
(RU) Russia Govt Spokesperson Peskov: Ready to talk to US on nuclear arms control
(US) US 5-year Credit Default Swaps (CDS) fall to 34bps from 59bps w/w, following debt limit agreement last week
EPAM Cuts Q2 guidance; Cuts again FY23 outlook; Since May 5th, clients becoming "even more cautious"; Notes changes in its June forecast data
PK Ceased payments towards $725M non-recourse CMBS loan secured by two of its San Francisco hotels; Notes it is in the best interest for Park's stockholders to materially reduce current exposure to the San Francisco market
SLG Signs 31 office leases totaling 300k sq ft in last 60 days; Notes leasing velocity continues to improve
(SA) Saudi Oil Min Abdulaziz: Saudi is fed up with OPEC members not meeting oil production goals - media interview
(US) MAY ISM SERVICES INDEX: 50.3 V 52.5E (lowest print in 5 months)
(US) APR FACTORY ORDERS: 0.4% V 0.8%E
HLT CEO: Not seeing any signs of a slowdown so far – CNBC
ODFL Reports May Rev/day -15.7% y/y, LTL tons/day -14.4% y/y; Q2 QTD LTL Rev per hundredweight ex-fuel +7.9% y/y
AAPL Introduces new AR/MR headset called Apple Vision Pro
TSM CEO: Affirms H1 Rev -10% y/y; Cuts FY23 Rev to decline by mid-single-digits in USD terms (prior: FY23 Rev falling low-to-mid single digit percent range y/y); Trims FY23 Capex outlook
UR) Ukraine South Military Command: Russia-controlled Nova Kakhovka dam in Kherson region was ‘blown up’ by Russia forces [**Note: according to Russian press, no "critical danger yet" to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant]
(CN) CHINA MAY TRADE BALANCE: $65.8B V $95.5BE; Exports Y/Y: -7.5% v -1.8%e [-7.5% is largest decline since Dec 2022]
W Business update: Q2-to-date Rev trend improving to negative mid single digit percentage range y/y, led by orders growth turning positive y/y; Driving to adj EBITDA profitability in Q2; Chief Commercial Officer to retire; effective Q1 2024

TUES 6/6
(AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) RAISES CASH RATE TARGET BY 25BPS TO 4.10%; NOT EXPECTED
(DE) GERMANY APR FACTORY ORDERS M/M: -0.4% V 2.8%E; Y/Y: -9.9% V -8.4%E
(CN) China said to be asking its biggest banks to cut deposits rates to boost domestic economy - press
(EU) ECB Apr Consumer Expectations Survey: See inflation over next 12 months at 4.1% v 5.0% prior
(UR) Ukraine presidential advisor Podolyak: Russia blows up the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant and creates the biggest environmental disaster in Europe in decades
(IR) Iran unveils new hypersonic missile Fattah ("Conqueror") capable of traveling at 15 times the speed of sound with a range of up to 1,400 kilometers - local press
COIN COIN SEC sues Coinbase in NY federal court; SEC claims Coinbase acting as unregistered broker, securities exchange, and clearing agency - filing
COIN Ten state AGs issue show cause order to Coinbase ordering them to show why they should not have to cease and desist their 'earn' program in those states
MRK Files lawsuit against US govt in federal court in Washington, claiming the Medicare drug price negotiation program is unconstitutional; Believes provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) will negatively impact biopharmaceutical innovation
BA FAA validated Boeing's assessment there is no immediate safety issue for 787 aircraft already in service
BINANCE.IPO SEC seeks temporary restraining order to freeze Binance's US unit assets and repatriate both fiat currency and crypto held by the service’s customers – filing
HUAWEI.CN EU considers mandatory ban on using Huawei to build 5G - FT
(CN) CHINA MAY TRADE BALANCE: $65.8B V $95.5BE

WED 6/7
ITX.ES Reports Q1 Net €1.17B v €1.03Be EBIT €1.48B v €1.35Be, Rev €7.61B v €7.56Be; 5-weeks to June 4th sales +16% (cc) y/y; Notes lower US demand caused by a tougher macro environment
(UK) MAY HALIFAX HOUSE PRICE INDEX M/M: 0.0% V -0.3% PRIOR; Y/Y: -1.0% V +0.1% PRIOR (1st annual decline since Dec 2012)
(TW) Taiwan May Trade Balance: $4.9B v $4.9Be
(CN) CHINA MAY FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES: $3.177T V $3.188TE
(US) US TREASURY NOW EXPECTS THAT ITS CASH BALANCE WILL BE APPROXIMATELY $425B AT THE END OF JUNE; Initial increases in bill issuance will be focused on shorter-tenor benchmark securities and cash management bills
W Business update: Q2-to-date Rev trend improving to negative mid single digit percentage range y/y, led by orders growth turning positive y/y; Driving to adj EBITDA profitability in Q2; Chief Commercial Officer to retire; effective Q1 2024
005930.KR Reportedly plans to raise NAND wafer prices – DigiTimes
May Manheim wholesale used vehicle prices: -2.7% M/M; -7.6% y/y
(CA) BANK OF CANADA (BOC) RAISES INTEREST RATES BY 25BPS TO 4.75%; NOT EXPECTED (1st hike after ~5 month pause)
(US) DOE CRUDE: -0.5M V +1ME; GASOLINE: +2.8M V +0.5ME; DISTILLATE: +5.1M V +1ME
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Raises Q2 GDP estimate to 2.2% from 2.0% prior
AMZN Reportedly in discussions to bring ad-supported tiers of Paramount+ and Max to Prime Video channels; Amazon also planning ad-supported tier for Prime Video, which could become its standard streaming offering - press
(US) Reportedly NATO plans to conduct the largest air force wargame exercise in its history called Air Defender 23 next week in Europe - US press
(US) APR CONSUMER CREDIT: $23.0B V $22.0BE V $22.8B PRIOR
(JP) JAPAN Q1 FINAL GDP Q/Q: 0.7% V 0.5%E; GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: 2.7% V 1.9%E

THRS 6/8
(IN) INDIA CENTRAL BANK (RBI) LEAVES REPURCHASE RATE UNCHANGED AT 6.50%; AS EXPECTED
(UR) Former NATO Sec General Rasmussen: Group of NATO countries may be willing to put troops on the ground in Ukraine if member states do not provide tangible security guarantees to Ukraine at NATO's summit in Vilnius in July 2023
(CN) China Commerce Ministry: Commences 6-month nationwide promotion to boost vehicle sales; Tells banks to offer credit support for car purchases
SIG Reports Q1 $1.78 v -$1.89 y/y, Rev $1.69B v $1.84B y/y; Cuts FY24 outlook and guides Q2 weak citing recent deceleration of trends persisted into Q2 and a softer than expected Mother's Day
(US) US Senators to introduce a bipartisan AI bill aimed at keeping up with China and establishing an office analyzing how competitive US is in critical technologies like AI - NBC News
(US) Biden administration officials reportedly planning for the possibility that the Supreme Court could strike down Pres Biden’s student loan forgiveness program - US press
(US) Redfin: May typical US home price -1.6% y/y v -3.2% prior (smallest dip in 3 months); New listings of homes for sale fell 25% y/y to their lowest level of any early June on record; Early-stage homebuying demand continues to hold up
(CH) SNB Chairman Jordan: Inflation is more persistent than we thought; Seeing second and third round effects [**Note: 1st Central Bank Gov to mention 3rd round effects]
(US) Q1 FINANCIAL ACCOUNT HOUSEHOLD CHANGE IN NET WORTH: $3.026T V +$2.927T PRIOR
(CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Dep Gov Beaudry: Do not have a pre-determined bias towards new hikes, but sees upside risk to neutral rate; April data tipped balance for Canada rate hike; demand has more momentum than expected
(US) Fed releases factors affecting reserve balances (H.4.1): Discount window borrowing fell to $3.2B v $3.97B w/w; Banks have borrowed $100.2B v $93.6B w/w from new BTFP facility [5th week of consecutive increase]
(US) Former Pres Trump confirms Biden Administration has informed his attorneys that he has been indicted on his handling of classified documents and obstruction of justice; Charges include under the Espionage Act; To be summoned to appear at the Miami Federal Courthouse on Tuesday, at 15:00ET
(CN) CHINA MAY CPI M/M: -0.2% V -0.1% PRIOR; Y/Y: 0.2% V 0.2%E

FRI 6/9
(JP) BOJ SAID TO STILL SEE NEED TO CONTINUE MONETARY STIMULUS AND LITTLE NEED TO TWEAK YIELD CURVE CONTROL (YCC) AT ITS UPCOMING POLICY MEETING IN JUN - PRESS CITING SOURCES
VXX VIX futures trade around 15.00 level (lowest since end-2019)
(US) US Democrats said to introduce bill later today, called the Debt Ceiling Reform Act, aiming to overhaul debt-ceiling process to allow US to continue servicing its bills unless the Congress objects it - US financial press
TM Reportedly Toyota and Nissan deliveries improve as chip shortage eases - Nikkei
(US) USDA WASDE CROP REPORT: End 2023/2024 US Stocks (M bu):Soybeans: 350 v 336e; Corn: 2,257 v 2,220e; Wheat: 562 v 568e
(US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count: 695 v 696 prior (-0.1% w/w)
(US) Trump indictment unsealed in Miami federal court; Includes 37 criminal counts including willful retention of national defense information, conspiracy to obstruct justice, false statements, and concealing documents in a federal investigation

Washington debt ceiling deal and temporary ceiling for Fed rates raises the roof for equities

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Washington debt ceiling deal and temporary ceiling for Fed rates raises the roof for equities

6/2/2023 4:47:21 PM

Trading this week was largely buoyed by the debt ceiling deal reached by President Biden and the Republicans last weekend. The bill successfully made its way through both the House and Senate, taking a US debt default off the table. Traders also appeared to become incrementally more comfortable that the Fed will pause or skip raising rates at the FOMC meeting later this month. Deflationary pressures were seen in the May ISM data in particular, while comments from FOMC voters Jefferson and Harker about a ‘skip’ more than offset continued hotter than expected employment readings, and the ongoing dissatisfaction of Fed hawks with the pace of disinflation. Weakness in Chinese economic data kept the specter of additional stimulus from the PBOC in play and Chinese equity markets strong into week’s end, with the Hang Seng surging 4% on Friday alone. European inflation readings also continued to show real improvement on both the headline and core, but it was not enough to dramatically change the tone coming for ECB officials who still largely expect two more 25 basis point hikes through this summer.

The May US employment report showed few signs that tightness in labor markets is demonstrably easing. Payrolls continue to post substantial gains, and the jobless rate for prime-aged workers (which is probably the most useful reflection of underlying trends) was unchanged. Wage growth slowed along with hours worked and the unemployment rate jumped three-tenths higher helping offset the robust payroll growth. Fed hawks will likely remain disappointed though by the slow progress back to more moderate labor market conditions. Nevertheless, markets continued to show comfort that monetary policy moderates will be successful in swaying the FOMC to pause/skip a hike at this month’s meeting, giving officials the ability to assess additional data before deciding to move rates further into restrictive territory. Oil prices moved higher into what could be another contentious OPEC+ meeting this weekend, but prices remain mired around $72/barrel for WTI. By Friday, the S&P 500 clearly broke above 4200, pushing through the top end of a trading range that has held since October as bears appeared to throw in the towel. The US dollar and yields rose while copper prices touched a 2-week high. The VIX dipped below 15 for the first time since the fall of 2021 and had its lowest weekly close since 2020. For the week, the S&P500 rose 1.8%, while the DJIA and Nasdaq each added about 2%.

The corporate calendar was notably busy this week with another swath of retailer and tech earnings coming alongside key investor conferences which offered fresh color into the marco landscape. In total, managements continued to paint a picture of a solid consumer holding up, but with signs of slowing emerging. Weak earnings reports from Advanced Auto Parts, Dollar Tree, Macy’s, Victoria’s Secret and Dollar General suggested the lower end consumer may be balking at the higher prices they now face. Meanwhile, Lululemon’s superior growth suggested that the higher end consumer remains flush. Mastercard, American Express, and Visa all offered color that consumer spending has remained positive into in May. Their comments along with raised guidance from American Airlines and Southwest Air confirmed that a good chunk spending continues to find its way to services/experiences over goods. Higher profile US bank executives like Jamie Dimon and Bran Moynihan confirmed loan growth has slowed and credit conditions have tightened into May but overall credit quality remains strong and they are not overly concerned about a near term economic crisis. Reports from Dell, HPE, and HPQ showed the PC cycle and elongated enterprise spend continues to serve as a headwind for portions of tech. Strong results and guidance from Broadcom reminded investors of the growth opportunities flagged by Nvidia last week.


SUN 5/28
(US) PRES BIDEN AND HOUSE SPEAKER MCCARTHY HAVE REACHED AN AGREEMENT “IN PRINCIPLE” TO RAISE DEBT LIMIT BY 19 MONTHS UNTIL JAN 1ST, 2025; McCarthy expect Congress vote on the deal on Wed, May 31st

MON 5/29
(US) US 5-year Credit Default Swaps (CDS) rise to 59bps from 52bps w/w
NVDA Released MGX server specification, a modular reference architecture for system manufacturers enabling fast and cheap server variations to fit a broad range of AI, high-performance computing applications

TUES 5/30
(ES) SPAIN MAY PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: -0.1% V 0.0%E; Y/Y: 3.2% V 3.6%E
(CN) China Finance Ministry to extend tariff waivers on some US goods until end-2023 (**Note: 7-month extension)
(EU) ECB's Centeno (Portugal): Spain CPI reading shows Europe inflation easing; Reversal of supply shocks should slow inflation
(US) MAY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 102.3 V 99.0E
(US) MAY DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY: -29.1 V -18.0E
(US) Deputy Treasury Sec Adeyemo: Debt ceiling deal is a good faith compromise that takes debt default off the table
HPQ Reports Q2 $0.80 v $0.76e, Rev $12.9B v $13.1Be
(CN) CHINA MAY MANUFACTURING PMI (GOVT OFFICIAL): 48.8 V 49.5E (2nd straight contraction and lowest since Dec)

WED 5/31
(DE) GERMANY MAY CPI NORTH RHINE WESTPHALIA M/M: -0.2% V +0.4% PRIOR; Y/Y: 5.7% V 6.7% PRIOR
(DE) GERMANY MAY NET UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +9.0K V +13.5KE; UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS RATE: 5.6% V 5.6%E
V Reported May US payment volume +5%, Debit +6% y/y; Global processed transactions grew 9% y/y - filing
AAP Reports Q1 $0.72 v $2.60e, Rev $3.42B v $3.43Be; Cuts outlook and dividend; Gene Lee assumes role of interim executive Chair
(DE) GERMANY MAY PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: -0.1% V +0.2%E; Y/Y: 6.1% V 6.5%E
(US) Nevada reports Apr casino gaming Rev $1.16B, +2.8% y/y, Las Vegas strip Rev $624.7M, +5.3% y/y
(US) MAY CHICAGO PURCHASE MANAGER’S INDEX (PMI): 40.4 V 47.2E
(US) APR JOLTS JOB OPENINGS: 10.103M V 9.400ME
CRM Reports Q1 $1.69 v $1.61e, Rev $8.25B v $8.17Be; Raises FY EPS, affirms Rev guidance
CRWD Reports Q1 $0.57 v $0.50e, Rev $692.6M v $677Me
AI Reports Q4 -$0.13 v -$0.17e, Rev $72.4M v $72.3Me
(CN) CHINA MAY CAIXIN PMI MANUFACTURING: 50.9 V 49.5E (moves back into expansion, 11-month high)

THRS 6/1
(HK) Macau May Casino Rev (MOP) 15.6B; Y/Y: +365.9% v +370.0%e
(UK) MAY NATIONWIDE HOUSE PRICE INDEX M/M: -0.1% V -0.5%E; Y/Y: -3.4% V -3.7%E
(ES) SPAIN MAY MANUFACTURING PMI: 48.4 V 48.0E (2nd straight contraction)
(UK) APR MORTGAGE APPROVALS: 48.7K V 53.5KE
(EU) EURO ZONE MAY CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: 6.1% V 6.3%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 5.3% V 5.5%E
(EU) EURO ZONE APR UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 6.5% V 6.5%E
(US) MAY ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +278K V +170KE; Pay growth slowing substantially
(US) Q1 FINAL NONFARM PRODUCTIVITY: -2.1% V -2.4%E; UNIT LABOR COSTS: 4.2% V 6.0%E
(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 232K V 235KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.795MM V 1.80ME
(US) MAY FINAL S&P/MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 48.4 V 48.5E
(US) MAY ISM MANUFACTURING: 46.9 V 47.0E
(US) DOE CRUDE: +4.5M V -1.5ME; GASOLINE: -0.2M V -1ME; DISTILLATE: +1M V +0.5ME
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Raises Q2 GDP estimate to 2.0% from 1.9% prior
BAC CEO: US consumer spending is slowing; Deposits will be similar to other large banks
(US) Fed releases factors affecting reserve balances (H.4.1): Discount window borrowing fell/ to $3.97B v $4.2B w/w; Banks have borrowed $93.6B v $91.9B w/w from new BTFP facility
(US) US Senate passes the debt-ceiling bill (as expected)
(US) US Pres Biden: I look forward to signing the debt-ceiling limit bill into law ASAP

FRI 6/2
AMZN Said to be in talks to offer low cost mobile service to US Prime members - press
(US) MAY CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: +339K V +195KE
(US) MAY AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M: 0.3% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 4.3% V 4.4%E
(US) MAY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 3.7% V 3.5%E (6-month high)
MMM Reportedly in at least $10B PFAS water pollution settlement; Board approval of settlement would allow 3M to avoid Jun 5th trial - press
(US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count: 696 v 711 prior (-2.1% w/w)

Debt jitters and rising rates overshadowed by Nvidia blockbuster results

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Debt jitters and rising rates overshadowed by Nvidia blockbuster results

5/26/2023 4:05:14 PM

Stocks entered the week still beholden to headlines coming out of Washington DC. Debt ceiling talks were said to be making progress after disappointment was expressed over the weekend. Sentiment swung on several occasions as both sides expressed frustration, though the negotiations continued without a deal. By Friday the S&P climbed back above 4200 helped in part by a growing belief a deal to raise the debt ceiling through 2024 will be put to a vote next week. Unlike equity markets, T-bill yields continued to climb along with and rates and spreads in general, suggesting bond markets are still positioning for potential issues related to the debt ceiling. Ratings agencies Fitch and DBRS both cut their outlooks for the United States sovereign bond ratings to negative. Wall Street spent considerable brain power on re-examining the playbook from the 2011 US downgrade by S&P, and on developing strategies for clients to hedge portfolios in a similar scenario.

Wednesday’s release of the FOMC minutes did little to change the entrenched narrative that the June meeting is still a close call on whether Fed Reserve officials will decide to pause or skip another 25 basis point rate hike. Friday’s April personal spending and PCE inflation data was notably hotter than expected. The data is likely to support a cadre of Fed hawks who have expressed progress on inflation remains too slow. Those officials have been vocal in messaging that if the Fed chooses hold off on hiking at next month’s meeting it is not a signal they are done. In their view rates are likely to need to go a little higher from here to reach a sufficiently restrictive level. Nevertheless, stock markets continued to look past the hotter than expected inflation data and its implications for rates heading in to the long holiday weekend. Semiconductors and the NASDAQ led the way higher basking in the AI glow of on incredible Nvidia quarterly earnings report. For the week the Dow fell 1%, S&P gained 0.3% and the NASDAQ rose 2.5%.

In corporate news small caps opened the week with a bid after FTSE Russel provided an initial look at expected index additions and subtractions for 2023. MU shares were under scrutiny when management estimated the combined direct and indirect impact on sales from a newly issued China ban could be around 25% of revenue. Toll Brothers posted strong earnings results and talked about how the present landscape is a boon for homebuilders with high rates keeping people locked in their homes buoying demand for new construction. A host retailers submitted results and managements that stood out positively included Abercrombie & Fitch, Urban Outfitters, Ralph Lauren, Elf Beauty, and Guess. Best Buy, Costco, Gap, Kohls and Lowe’s results were not quit as stellar, but perhaps better than many had feared. But by a wide margin Nvidia’s earnings a guidance captivated investors’ imaginations in a way that could only be compared to a select few Apple quarters. The juggernaut saw its market cap surge an astonishing $200B+ towards the $1T mark after the company guided Q2 revenue more than 50% above current consensus. AI talk consumed the street after CEO Huang said he believes we are at the beginning of a ten year mega-cycle referring to AI advancements calling it an "iPhone moment". The very next day Marvell Technology guided FY24 AI segment Rev 'to at least double' y/y and shares surged 30%.

Debt ceiling debate overhangs markets

TradeTheNews.com  Weekly Market Update: Debt ceiling debate overhangs markets

5/19/2023 4:03:53 PM

Major indices opened lower this week after US Empire Manufacturing saw the largest month over month decline since the 2020 pandemic. Hard landing worries persisted along with real concerns about a potential US debt default. US House Speaker McCarthy reiterated debt ceiling negotiators were still far apart while President Biden was set to leave for the G-7 in Japan with the clock ticking. On Tuesday US advanced retail sales missed on the headline but the control group surpassed market expectations. Importantly interest rates commenced what would be a notable move higher in the wake of Canada’s CPI data. Canada’s much hotter than expected inflation print (the first acceleration in 10-months) may have taken on more significance in some investor’s minds after the Bank of Canada paused their rate hiking cycle earlier this spring. By midweek the tone on the debt ceiling negotiations took on a significantly more constructive turn in tone, after President Biden appointed two of his most trusted and experienced aids to take the lead in talks with the Republicans and House leader McCarthy. Stocks surged led by the NASDAQ and risk on trade momentum picked up. Gold rolled over the US dollar rose in reaction to jump in US Treasury yields. By Friday US yields reached the highest levels since SVB collapsed in March. Market expectations for an additional Fed hike started to creep in as recession worries faded and Fed hawks like President Logan were vocal, when she noted she doesn’t necessarily see the case for a Fed pause yet.

On Friday Chairman Powell struck a ball that that appeared to be right down the middle in terms of what we recently heard from his colleagues. In a short panel appearance he largely reiterated the message provided at the FOMC press conference earlier this month. His commentary was overshadowed by news out of Washington that the debt talks had broken off. Mccarthy’s team walked out calling White House demands unreasonable while reports noted it was not just one issue, but several that have remained problematic. Finger pointing quickly ensued from both the GOP and White House, and no additional talks were expected on Friday. Stocks rolled into the red mid-session and yields moved off the highs while gold prices recouped some of the week’s losses. US T-bill yields remained above 5% all the way out to the 1-year note. For the week the S&P added 1.7%, Dow gains 0.4%, and the NASDAQ jumed 3%.

A weak earnings report from Home Depot kicked off the retail portion of earnings season potentially fanning lingering hard landing worries. Targets Inc Q1 earnings were better than expected but, Q2 and FY guidance was notably conservative. Management acknowledged the softer sales trends experienced in Q1 continued into May which was a narrative repeated on other earnings conference calls throughout the week. Walmart’s strong Q1 results and raised guidance definitely allayed some of the ongoing growth concerns. Western Alliance Bancorp surged after the bank noted total deposits rose in the last week buoying the entire regional bank complex mid-week. Cisco reported better-than-expected earnings and sales results for its third quarter but initial stock weakness was attributed to worries about waning order growth. Deere reported exceptionally strong results and significantly raised their FY forecast for profits. Netflix was the poster child for strength in the NASDAQ 100 which surged to a fresh 52-highs. The streaming behemoth noted that their ad tier service now has more than 5M monthly users.

Corporate results abate near-term recession concerns

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Corporate results abate near-term recession concerns

4/28/2023 4:05:46 PM

Heading into this week, it was all about earnings, earnings, and more earnings. Corporate profitability remained above what most had expected coming into the Q1 earnings season, though firms were not raising guidance by as much as they had beat significantly lowered estimates. Mega-cap tech was led by Microsoft and Meta earnings reports garnering significant excitement among investors. Nevertheless management teams also acknowledged real risks on the horizon and ongoing macroeconomic headwinds will likely curtail growth for some time.

Economic data continued to show real deceleration. April Richmond Fed data contracted more than expected and included significant declines in both new orders and backlog. Consumer confidence data missed estimates and March was revised lower despite corporate leaders insisting that the consumer remains on solid footing. The US 10-year drifted lower as market expectations solidified further around a 25bps hike at next week’s FOMC meeting. The Euro rose ahead what is expected to be the first of at least two more 25bps hikes next week by the ECB. The Yen exhibited notable weakness on Friday after the new BOJ Governor Ueda largely stayed the course in his first official meeting heading the central bank. For the week, the S&P gained 0.9%, the DJIA added 0.9%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.3%.

The corporate news week started off with the bankruptcy filing of Bed Bath and Beyond, ending its long struggle to remain solvent. First Republic Bank continued to flounder as it appears to be on track to FDIC receivership, failing any last minute white knight stepping in. Meanwhile other regional banks showed some resilience, notably PacWest, which reported quarterly results close to expectations and announced that deposits have risen significantly since the collapse of SVB. GM beat earnings expectations handily and talked about its progress in EV production, but shares still fell as investors worried about auto market pricing pressures and a potential recession.

Many tech giants reported this week, and Microsoft and Meta shined, both beating expectations by a wide margin and touting their efforts in developing new AI products. Google and Amazon didn’t fare as well with their earnings results, and Amazon in particular highlighted that customers are restraining their cloud spending amid economic uncertainties. Adding to pressure in that business, it was reported that Alibaba was cutting prices at its cloud unit by as much as 50% for core and storage products. And in M&A news, UK antitrust regulators rejected proposed remedies for Activision’s deal, sharply reducing chances that the acquisition by Microsoft will come to pass.


SUN 4/23
BBBY Said to have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Apr 23rd; To eventually close all of its 360 Bed Bath & Beyond and 120 Buybuy Baby locations - press

MON 4/24
CSGN.CH Reports Q1 (CHF) Adj Pretax -1.32B v -1.01B y/y, Rev 18.5B v 4.41B; Includes write-down of 15.0B in AT1 capital notes; Notes net new outflows moderated but have not yet reversed as of Apr 24th
(DE) German govt agrees wage deal with Verdi trade union for public-sector workers (>2.5M employees); To pay one-off payment of €3,000 over 15 months and to raise monthly wages by minimum €340 from Apr 1st, 2024
KO Reports Q1 $0.68 v $0.65e, Rev $11.0B v $10.9Be
(US) APR PRELIMINARY S&P/MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 52.8 v 48.0e
(US) APR DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY: -23.4 V -11.0E
FRC Reports Q1 $1.23 v $0.72e, Rev $1.2B v $1.13Be; Deposits down 40.8% q/q (incl $30B infusion), but deposit activity remained stable through 4 weeks to Apr 21st; To cut workforce 20-25%
FRC Exec: Pursuing strategic options such as restructuring balance sheet; Retained 90% of wealth management professionals and wealth assets from teams that left represent less than 20% of total - earnings call comments
PKG Reports Q1 $2.20 v $2.27e, Rev $1.98B v $2.08Be; Guides Q2 below consensus; Notes after a strong start in Jan, consumer spending was increasingly softer as Q1 progressed
(JP) Japan Cabinet Office (Govt) Apr Monthly Report: Maintains overall economic assessment, reiterates economy picking up moderately but sees weakness; raises view on imports [first upgrade since July 2022]
(JP) Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ) Mar Chip-Making Equipment Billings Y/Y: 6.5% v 0.1% prior

TUES 4/25
UBSG.CH Reports Q1 $0.32 v $0.61 y/y, Rev $8.74B v $9.38B y/y
ABBN.CH Reports Q1 Net $1.04B v $877Me, Rev $7.86B v $7.55Be; Raises FY23 Rev outlook citing strong start for the year
NOVN.CH Reports Q1 Core EPS $1.71 v $1.57e, Rev $13.0B v $12.5Be; Raises FY23 guidance
NESN.CH Reports Q1 (CHF) Rev 23.5B v 23.1Be
(UK) Kantar announces 12 week grocery market share and sales: UK grocery price inflation rose by 17.3% in the four weeks to Apr 16th v 17.5% prior
(US) Biden administration said to be quietly preparing for the possibility that Ukraine’s counteroffensive falls short of expectations; Proposals mulled reportedly include a “ceasefire” and not permanent peace talks, leaving the door open for Ukraine to regain more of its territory at a future date - Politico
ABBN.CH CEO: Many other markets like India and South America have stepped up and helped compensate for orders decline in US, China and Germany; Upgraded guidance based on strong start to year which continued through Q1 - post earnings comments
(UK) Bank of England (BoE) Statement: BoE, BoJ, ECB and SNB in consultation with Fed to revert frequency of 7-day operations from daily to once-per-week, effective May 1st
(EU) EU countries reach deal to approve reform of EU Carbon market Deal to cut carbon market emissions by 62% from 2005 levels by 2030; To launch second carbon market in 2027 - press
(US) US Pres Biden formally announces his 2024 presidential re-election campaign (as speculated)
CNC Reports Q1 $2.11 v $2.23e, Rev $38.9B v $36.3Be; Raises FY23 outlook
GE Reports Q1 $0.27 v $0.13e, Rev $14.5B v $13.4Be; Raises lower-end of FY23 outlook
GM Reports Q1 $2.21 v $1.58e, Rev $40.0B v $38.5Be
MMM Reports Q1 $1.97 v $1.59e, Rev $8.00B v $7.47Be; Announces additional restructuring actions affecting 6K positions globally
MCD Reports Q1 $2.63 v $2.30e, Rev $5.90B v $5.57Be
RTX Reports Q1 $1.22 v $1.11e, Rev $17.2B v $16.9Be
BIIB Reports Q1 $3.40 v $3.31e, Rev $2.46B v $2.34Be; Deprioritized certain programs in stroke, gene therapy, and ophthalmology as part of ongoing R&D pipeline optimization
ADM Reports Q1 $2.09 v $1.71e, Rev $24.1B v $23.5Be
(US) Nevada reports Mar casino gaming Rev $1.31B, -3.2% y/y, Las Vegas strip Rev $724.6M, -2.9% y/y
(US) APR RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: -10 V -8E
(US) APR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 101.3 V 104.0E
KER.FR Reports Q1 Rev €5.08B v €5.06Be
ASM.NL Reports Q1 Net €183M v €146M y/y, Rev €710M v €517M y/y; Memory market demand weakened and expected to remain low for remainder of the year
(US) March money supply M2 down 1.2% ($257.3B) from prior month to $20.818T (biggest drop on record since 1959]
MSFT Reports Q3 $2.45 v $2.22e, Rev $52.9B v $51.0Be
GOOGL Reports Q1 $1.17 v $1.06e, Rev $58.1B v $56.9Be; Authorizes to buy back additional $70B of shares (5.3% of market cap)
PACW Reports Q1 $0.66 v $0.65e, Rev $316M v $320Me; Deposits rose by $1.1B in the last 11 days of March and $700M subsequent to quarter-end
CMG CEO: Q1 strength continued into Apr; Feel good where we are now and no plans to take additional pricing, but will if we need to – CNBC
CARR Confirms to acquire Viessmann Climate Solutions for €12B in cash and stock issued directly to Viessmann Group with a long-term ownership commitment
MSFT CEO: Guides Q4 total segments Rev $54.85 v $54.8Be (calculated); Sees FX headwind of 2% on revenue during Q4 - earnings call comments
BABA Cloud unit said to cut prices by up to 50%, relates to core and storage products - Chinese press

WED 4/26
ROG.CH Reports Q1 (CHF) Rev 15.3B v 16.4B y/y
BN.FR Reports Q1 Rev €6.96B v €6.67Be; Raises FY23 guidance
GSK.UK Reports Q1 Adj £0.37 v £0.33e, Rev £6.95B v £6.49B
(SE) SWEDEN CENTRAL BANK (RIKSBANK) RAISES REPO RATE BY 50BPS TO 3.50%; AS EXPECTED; decision was not unanimous
(US) US 5-year Credit Default Swaps (CDS) rise to 62bps v 59bps d/d (highest since 2011
HLT Reports Q1 $1.24 v $1.14e, Rev $2.29B v $2.26Be; Raises guidance
ADP Reports Q3 $2.52 v $2.42e, Rev $4.93B v $4.89Be; Raises eps guidance
PAG Reports Q1 $4.31 v $3.92e, Rev $7.34B v $6.74Be; Automotive retail and commercial truck retail demand for new vehicles remains strong
ATVI *UK CMA blocks Microsoft from purchasing Activision to protect innovation and choice in Cloud Gaming; Found Microsoft's solution had significant shortcomings and would require regulatory oversight by CMA
(UR) CHINA PRES XI SPEAKS WITH UKRAINE PRES ZELENSKIY FOR 1ST TIME SINCE UKRAINE WAR STARTED VIA CALL; Xi tells Zelenskiy negotiations are only solution for the war
(CN) China Foreign Ministry: In near future, China will send delegation to Ukraine and other countries to help reach political settlement; China and Ukraine are strategic partners and since Ukraine crisis started, China has actively promoted peace talks
(US) MAR PRELIMINARY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: 3.2% V 0.7%E; DURABLES (EX-TRANSPORTATION): +0.3% V -0.2%E
FRC David Faber: Sources continue to suggest White House/Treasury are unwilling to step up pressure on banks to purchase FRC assets at a price that will allow for repair of balance sheet – CNBC
(US) DOE CRUDE: -5.1M V -1ME; GASOLINE: -2.4M V -1ME; DISTILLATE: -0.6M V -1ME
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Cuts Q1 GDP estimate from 2.5% to 1.1%; On poor NAR, Q1 investment figures
META Reports Q1 $2.20 v $1.96e, Rev $28.7B v $27.5Be; Expects Irish Data Protection Commission (IDPC) to issue a decision in May relating to transatlantic data transfers of Facebook EU/EEA user data; Trims Opex guidance
URI Reports Q1 $7.95 v $8.12e, Rev $3.29B v $3.14Be
005930.KR Reports final Q1 (KRW) Net 1.58T v 11.3T y/y, Op 640B v 14.1T y/y (600B prelim), Rev 63.7T v 77.8T y/y (63.0T prelim); Expects recovery in chip demand during H2 2023

THRS 4/27
DBK.DE Reports Q1 Pretax €1.85B v €1.63Be, Rev €7.70B v €4.46Be; On track to meet or exceed 2025 targets
STM.FR Reports Q1 $1.10 v $1.32 y/y, Rev $4.25B v $3.55B y/y; Raises lower-end of FY23 outlook, but notes potential pricing headwinds in H2 2023
BAS.DE Reports final Q1 Net €1.56B v €1.22B y/y, Adj EBIT €1.93B v €1.88B y/y, Rev €20.0B v €23.1B y/y
UNA.NL Reports Q1 Rev €14.8B v €13.8B y/y
TTE.FR Reports Q1 Adj Net $6.54B v $6.3Be, Adj EBITDA $14.2B v $12.7Be; Confirms to accept offer from Suncor for Canada oil sands assets; To buy back up to $2.0B in shares during Q2; Raises interim dividend 7% to €0.74/shr
(RU) Russia Dep PM Novak: OPEC+ sees no need for further oil output cuts; To redirect 140M tons of oil and oil productions from Europe to Asia during 2023
7201.JP Raises FY23 Net ¥220B (prior ¥155B) Op ¥370B (prior ¥360B); Cuts Rev ¥10.5T (prior ¥10.9T)
UNA.NL CEO: All business groups growing ahead of expectations; Does not see any particular downtrading - post earnings comments
SO Reports Q1 $0.79 v $0.75e, Rev $6.48B v $6.71Be; Encouraged by continued strong residential customer growth
CAT Reports Q1 $4.91 v $3.79e, Rev $15.9B v $15.2Be
CAT Guides Q2 Rev to increase q/q in line with normal seasonality; FY23 adj Op margin to be in the top half of our target range - earnings slides
CBRE Reports Q1 $0.92 v $0.83e, Rev $7.41B v $7.34Be
CMCSA Reports Q1 $0.92 v $0.81e, Rev $29.7B v $29.4Be
OSK Reports Q1 $1.59 v $0.99e, Rev $2.27B v $2.09Be; Raises guidance; Continues to experience strong demand for its access products
1211.HK Reports Q1 (CNY) Net 4.13B v 0.8B y/y, Rev 120.2B v 69B y/y
ABBV Reports Q1 $2.46 v $2.46e, Rev $12.3B v $12.1Be
GWW Reports Q1 $9.61 v $8.55e, Rev $4.09B v $4.07Be; Raises guidance
MA Apr month to date transaction volume +17% y/y, Cross-border volume +29% y/y
(US) MAR PENDING HOME SALES M/M: -5.2% V 0.8%E; Y/Y: -23.3% V -20.7%E
AMZN Reports Q1 $0.31 v $0.25e, Rev $127.4B v $124.4Be; Guides Q2 op inc very wide
INTC Reports Q1 -$0.04 v -$0.16e, Rev $11.7B v $11.1Be
TMUS Reports Q1 $1.58 v $1.45e, Rev $19.6B v $19.90Be; Raises FY guidance
INTC Expecting modest H2 2023 recovery; On our way to deliver $3B of cost savings in 2023, $8-10B annually exiting 2025
SNAP Reports Q1 +$0.01 v -$0.01e, Rev $988.6M v $1.01Be
X Reports Q1 $0.77 v $0.57e, Rev $4.47B v $4.16Be
(US) Fed releases factors affecting reserve balances (H.4.1): Discount window borrowing rose to $73.9B v $69.9B w/w; Banks have borrowed $81.3 v $74B w/w from new BTFP facility
AMZN CFO: Customers continue to evaluate ways to optimize their cloud spending; Seeing these optimizations continue into Q2 with April Rev growth rates ~500bps lower than what we saw in Q1 - earnings call comments
(JP) JAPAN APR TOKYO CPI Y/Y: 3.5% V 3.3%E; CPI (EX-FRESH FOOD) Y/Y: 3.5% V 3.2%E; Tokyo Core CPI is highest since 1982
(US) EPA to waive E15 from volatility limits on an emergency basis, to permit summer sales of higher-ethanol gasoline - US financial press

FRI 4/28
(JP) BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) LEAVES INTEREST RATE ON EXCESS RESERVES (IOER) UNCHANGED AT -0.10%; AS EXPECTED; Removed forward guidance on interest rates and confirms to conduct broad-perspective review lasting 1-1.5 years
COF CEO: Net charge-off rate hasn't caught up yet, but based on what we see in our delinquencies, we think the monthly charge-off rate will get back to 2019 levels around mid-2023; Our credit metrics tend to move a quarter or two ahead of the industry - call comments
(FR) FRANCE Q1 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.2% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 0.8% V 0.9%E
ENI.IT Reports Q1 Adj Net €2.91B v €2.30Be, Adj Op €4.64B v €3.60Be, Rev €27.2B v €32.1B y/y; Planned €2.2B share buyback is confirmed
6758.JP Reports FY22/23 Net ¥937B v ¥882.2B y/y, Op ¥1.21T v ¥1.20T y/y, Rev ¥11.5T v ¥9.92T y/y
(DE) GERMANY APR NET UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +24.0K V +8.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS RATE : 5.6% V 5.6% PRIOR’
(DE) GERMANY Q1 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.0% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: -0.1% V +0.3%E (avoids a technical recession)
- GDP NSA (unadj) Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.8%e
(EU) EURO ZONE Q1 ADVANCE GDP Q/Q: 0.1% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 1.3% V 1.4%E
(UR) Ukraine Defense Min Reznikov: Preparations for our counteroffensive are being wrapped up
(EU) Reportedly more than a quarter of Europe is in drought as of April; Some experts warn even rainy spring can’t fix Europe’s ongoing groundwater shortage – Politico
CVX Reports Q1 $3.55 v $3.37e, Rev $50.8B v $48.0Be; Expects to buy back $4.375B in shares in Q2 v $3.75B q/q
(DE) GERMANY APR PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.4% V 0.6%E; Y/Y: 7.2% V 7.3%E
(US) Q1 EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX (ECI): 1.2% V 1.1%E
(US) MAR PERSONAL INCOME: 0.3% V 0.2%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: 0.0% V -0.1%E
(US) MAR PCE DEFLATOR M/M: 0.1% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 4.2% V 4.1%E
(US) APR FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 63.5 V 63.5 PRELIM
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Sets initial Q2 GDP estimate at 1.7% vs latest Q1 indication of 1.1%
(US) Fed's Barr releases report on SVB failure; Must address weaknesses in supervision and regulation; Need stronger standards across a broader set of banks, will consider improved liquidity and capital requirements
(US) Mar Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE (m/m) +3.4% v 4.6% prior