Dec 06 2011

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8 calls, 7 wins - let's get our profits in case world ends this Friday!


Session Time: Tue Dec 06 00:00:00 2011
[08:58] {nemo} any deer in here?
[08:58] {Threei}  ummm
[08:59] {Threei}  morning
[08:59] {nemo} is that a "yes" or a "no"?
[08:59] {Threei}  not saying until I know whether you are armed
[08:59] {nemo} always
[08:59] {Threei}  then no
[09:00] {nemo} are you prevaricating?
[09:02] {Threei}  not saying until I know whether you shoot those who do
[09:02] {nemo} depends on my mood
[09:02] {Threei}  then no
[09:08] {dino} gm
[09:08] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:09] {Threei}  if you have a deer with you, don't tell nemo... he is roaming cyberspace, hungry for a kill
[09:13] {Threei}  nemo
[09:13] {Threei}  will this do?
[09:13] {Threei}  Cougar sightings in #Sidney have RMCP & conservation officers on high alert.
[09:14] {Threei}  spotted near the park where I usually leave my car when go for a walk
[09:14] {dino} those older gals never give up
[09:14] {Threei}  hehe
[09:15] {Threei}  S&P warns it may downgrade AAA long-term credit rating of EFSF, European bailout fund
[09:15] {Threei}  amazing to me that EFSF even has a rating
[09:18] {ese} morning.......won't be staying too long...have to go see the doctor....some dufuss ran over me on mike bike last night at 6pm
[09:18] {Threei}  wow
[09:18] {ese} my bike
[09:18] {dino} ouch
[09:18] {Threei}  you OK?
[09:19] {ese} ya.......they went through a stop sign and I slide under them
[09:22] {Threei}  with this early darkness, bike becomes quite dangerous
[09:23] {nemo} yeah, I use nightvision to pick them off...quart size water bottle for a suppressor and subsonic ammo
[09:23] {ese} ya....and I was avoiding the busy streets too....thought it would be safer
[09:23] {ese} lol
[09:24] {Threei}  you may consider out cougars, nemo... they wear reflective clothes
[09:24] {Threei}  our
[09:24] {ese} definitely....makes the game more fair
[09:25] {nemo} yeah, still can't see the crosshairs when you're going for headshots
[09:25] {Threei}  laser beam?
[09:25] {ese} when we moved into this house vad 16 years ago......they caught one in Uplands Park just 2 blocks up from us
[09:25] {nemo} oh yeah, can follow that right back to ya
[09:26] {Threei}  they report one yesterday ese, Tulista park... right where I leave my car almost daily
[09:26] {ese} oh my goodness
[09:27] {dino} here kitty kitty
[09:27] {Threei}  so, S&P donwgrade failed to send market into panic
[09:27] {ese} rotflol
[09:27] {Threei}  barring new news, climb should be in cards
[09:27] {nemo} they just need to put out a carcass in a couple of spots and set up a couple of sniper blinds
[09:27] {Threei}  problem is, market is spooked easy
[09:28] {Threei}  and as we approach Friday, tensions will rise even more
[09:28] {dino} well ese was laying down
[09:28] {ese} nemo nemo nemo............always with the over kill.......
[09:28] {Threei}  lol dino
[09:28] {ese} lol
[09:28] {nemo} dead is dead...there is no overdead
[09:29] {Threei}  I'll watch for long setups for now
[09:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .30 break
[09:31] {Threei}  if stays above .15
[09:32] {Threei}  1:1 but getting a fill was questionable
[09:33] {dino} missed
[09:33] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  40 break
[09:34] {Threei}  if stays above .85
[09:35] {Threei}  1:1
[09:35] {Threei}  this one was easy
[09:36] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .55 break
[09:36] {swill} seems to trade in bursts
[09:37] {Threei}  stop above .60
[09:37] {Threei}  let's keep it tight
[09:38] {Threei}  FCX out in full
[09:39] {Threei}  bid half SLW .46
[09:39] {Threei}  hit
[09:39] {Threei}  and try for second half around .35
[09:39] {Threei}  stop to .56
[09:41] {ese} and rightfully so!!!!!!!!!!!
[09:42] {Threei} Short Setup: HOG  .40 break half lot
[09:42] {Threei}  let's change to .45 brteak
[09:42] {Threei}  if stays under .55
[09:42] {Threei}  SLW second target hit
[09:42] {Threei}  out
[09:43] {dino} gj
[09:43] {Threei}  ty
[09:43] {Threei}  Belgium has a goverment as of this morning
[09:43] {Threei}  18 months they lived without one... what could possibly possess them to get one, I have no idea
[09:44] {Threei}  if they wanted it so badly, they could ask US
[09:45] {Threei}  HOG 1:1
[09:45] {Threei}  (FR) Fitch comments on France rating; AAA is appropriate even with Euro crisis- Notes, however, that its abilities to handle any additional shocks is now mostly exhausted
[09:47] {cipher} cat l .69
[09:47] {Threei}  1:2, out
[09:48] {RonS} got hog .43 to .21  thanks 3i
[09:48] {dino} sprd gap fill
[09:48] {cipher} ibm l .87
[09:49] {dino} sm l .20
[09:50] {Threei}  welcome ron
[09:50] {Threei}  covered SLW a bit too early
[09:51] {Threei}  recovery time it looks like
[09:51] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .20 break
[09:51] {Threei}  if holding above .10
[09:51] {Threei}  actually...
[09:51] {Threei}  .15 break if holding .05
[09:52] {Threei}  let's make it a bit more aggressive
[09:52] {Threei}  and double-bottomish
[09:54] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:55] {Threei}  1:1
[09:56] {dino} out slw .32, +.22 ty vad
[09:56] {RonS} got slw .12 to .28  thanks 3i
[09:56] {Threei}  :)
[09:56] {Threei}  1:2
[09:56] {cipher} .12 to .34 thx
[09:57] {Threei}  welcome guys
[09:57] {Threei}  you figured I was due, didn't you
[09:57] {Threei}  perfect record so far today... 5:5, with one all but impossible to execute
[09:58] {Threei}  let's continue in this rythm till first stop, then will take a pause and reevaluate
[10:00] {Threei}  (EU) EU"s Van Rompuy: Will call for EU members to move nearer to a real economic union and fiscal agreement- EU treaty adjustments will be moved towards the fast track to help avoid the need of parliamentary approval in all nations
[10:00] {Threei}  right, let's push it down their throat
[10:00] {cipher} out 1/2 ibm .47 +.58
[10:00] {Threei}  wtg
[10:00] {RonS} lol...gotta be a joke here...Polish finance minister says Poland wants to join Euro-zone when it is fixed.
[10:00] {Threei}  rofl
[10:01] {RonS} wtg cipher
[10:02] {cipher} out 1/2 cat .35 +.66
[10:02] {Threei}  very nice back to back hits
[10:03] {cipher} out rest slw .40
[10:03] {Threei}  watch LVS
[10:03] {Threei}  eithger C&H woth .25 break or pullback entry
[10:04] {Threei}  ideally, oullback to about 46 - 46.10
[10:04] {Threei}  but if holding above .15, then .25 break becomes long trigger
[10:04] {dino} gj cipher
[10:05] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .25 break
[10:06] {Threei}  stop under .15
[10:06] {Threei}  target 1:2
[10:09] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .25 break
[10:09] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:09] {Threei}  oh come on already LVS
[10:10] {Threei}  no go
[10:17] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .30 break half lot
[10:19] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:21] {Threei}  Euro vs US Dollar Nomura analysts adjust forecast; see Euro at 1.20 by 1H12 vs 1.30 prior forecast
[10:21] {Threei}  well... depending on how this week goes, it can be zero just as well, lol
[10:22] {Threei}  kidding... tey of course will drag this out as long as possible, until this tired horse drops dead of old age
[10:22] {cipher} l cat .17
[10:24] {Threei}  beautiful
[10:24] {cipher} out 1/2 .+.22
[10:24] {Threei}  sudden market spike helped
[10:25] {Threei}  no news that I see
[10:25] {cipher} i'll take it :)
[10:25] {Threei}  no doubt, lol
[10:25] {cipher} I have a long bias today
[10:25] {cipher} helps to go with a trend
[10:28] {cipher} out another partial cat .54 +37
06[10:29] * Threei slaps cipher around a bit with a large roll of cash
[10:31] {Threei}  market goes into slow climb mode
[10:33] {cipher} out rest ibm .74 +.87
[10:34] {cipher} cat stopped rest +.27
[10:37] {dino} wtg
[10:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  PRU  .65 break
[10:38] {Threei}  if stays above .55
[10:38] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:39] {Threei}  let's reinstate it with .60 break trigger
[10:40] {Threei}  if SPY breaks 126.50 it shoudl work
[10:40] {Threei}  if not it will invalidate again
[10:41] {Threei}  SPY weakens
[10:41] {Threei}  sure enough PRU invalidates
[10:54] {dino} news sprd? -5 since yesterday open
[10:54] {Threei}  nothing fresh
[10:54] {dino} i can't find anything either
[10:56] {RonS} true greek hero:  http://tinyurl.com/87bfufq
[11:07] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .40 break half lot if stays under .50
[11:08] {Threei}  target 1:2
[11:08] {Threei}  1:1
[11:09] {dino} sprd sm l .35
[11:13] {Threei}  scalpers win this one
[11:15] {Threei}  Geithner speaks on EU
[11:15] {Threei}  he is ecnouraged in case you wondered
[11:26] {Threei}  volume slowed down greatly
[11:30] {swill} laser is showing emerg system maintence at merril.  does this mater?
[11:31] {Threei}  nah, just don't route through MLCO
[11:32] {swill} thnx
[11:34] {ese} Ok .....am outta here to visit the police to report my accident......cya tomorrow hopefully
[11:35] {Threei}  take care ese
[11:35] {ese} cya vad
[11:36] {Threei}  (RU) Russia Foreign Min: US comments related to past election are an 'unfriendly attack' and are unacceptable
[11:38] {Threei} Short Setup: X  .70 break
[11:38] {Threei}  if stays under .80
[11:40] {RonS} unreal...cannot short X...shows 25% float short
[11:45] {dino}  sprd stop
[12:22] {dino} sprd rinsed
[12:23] {Threei}  (GR) Greece Opposition leader Samaras: ECB should become lender of last resort; secondary bond purchases are not enough
[12:24] {Threei}  read this and tell me,
[12:24] {Threei}  do they sound like guys are the verge of resolving the situation:
[12:24] {Threei}  (EU) Euro zone officials said to be discussing increase size of bailout funds; may involve funds from EU Govts going to the IMF - financial press
[12:24] {Threei}  - Considering having EU governments provide as much as �200B in additional funds to the IMF.
[12:24] {Threei}  - Discussion for increasing size of the bailout fund capacity are part of negotiations ahead of the EU summit on Friday, Dec 9.
[12:25] {RonS} EIA: US To Be Net Oil Products Exporter In 2011, First Time Since 1949
[12:25] {Threei}  how did that happen?
[12:25] {RonS} ...in the face of O...
[12:25] {RonS} fracking
[12:26] {Threei}  SINA
[12:26] {Threei}  SINA Ticks lower on circulation of press reports discussing the efforts in some Asian countries to impose more control over 'offensive' content on the internet (related BIDU DANG FXI NTES RENN SOHU )
[12:35] {Threei}  DNDN halt
[12:36] {Threei}  (CA) Fitch comments on Canada sovereign rating and interest rate decision
[12:36] {Threei}  - Fitch: Canadian government's demonstrated ability to put forth a credible long-term fiscal consolidation plan provides critical support for the country's 'AAA' rating. The government's commitment to eliminate the federal budget deficit by the middle of this decade even in the context of weaker growth puts Canada ahead of other peers rated 'AAA.'
[12:36] {Threei}  - Today's decision by the Bank of Canada to leave interest rates unchanged preserves limited monetary policy headroom as the Canadian labor market shows increasing signs of weakness and the risk of external economic shocks emanating from the euro zone persists.
[13:14] {Threei}  DNDN opened
[13:14] {Threei}  toughie
[13:26] {Threei}  so nice and easy morning, and then totally dead
[13:35] {Threei}  wow... scanner doesn't move, news don't scroll
[13:35] {patience} my slw has slowly crept up today
[13:36] {patience} held tza overnight, sold this morning at 27.47
[13:36] {Threei}  but hey, crowd of protesters at US consulate in Toronto, speaking against something happening in Kongo
[13:36] {Threei}  does it make sense to you?
[13:38] {Threei}  General Motors Corp US Transportation Sec Lahood: Chevy volt is a safe car to drive- Note: Comments come after recent reports of fires taking place in the car following crash tests. - Reminder: On 12/1 the GM CEO: May need to redesign Volt battery to address fire issues. On 11/28, commented that the engineering team was to work with the NHTSA on any necessary changes needed to the Volt battery.
[13:39] {Threei}  if it's safe to drivem why the need to redesign the battery?
[13:39] {Threei}  crash dummies refuse to get in the car?
[13:40] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  27 break
[13:40] {Threei}  if stays above .90
[13:43] {Threei}  target 1:3
[13:43] {Threei}  normal partials at each level
[13:53] {Threei}  speech on economy is coming btw
[13:53] {Threei}  don't ask by whome
[13:53] {Threei}  -e
[13:53] {RonS} hmmmm:  http://tinyurl.com/c5b5dp9
[13:55] {Threei}  if they offered it with no purchase necessary, I'd get rich iver this holidat season
[13:55] {Threei}  the number of stores I'd leave empty-handed, oy
[13:56] {Threei}  in fact I'd take position at the door and step in and out with abut 1 step a second frequence
[13:56] {Threei}  60 steps a min $5 each, do the math
[14:01] {Threei}  1:1
[14:01] {Threei}  half out
[14:01] {Threei}  stop to .97
[14:04] {Threei}  incredible, 20 min for TZA to go 10 cents
[14:13] {Threei}  time for another leg down, SPY
[14:13] {Threei}  hmmm... I didn't sound too convicning, did I
[14:15] {Threei}  don't see news yet
[14:16] {Threei}  ok... scalpers win
[14:16] {Threei}  so, pres says the principle of rugged individualism has never worked
[14:17] {Threei}  as dar as I can tell, it only worked for a few hundred years until it was replaced with corporate socialism
[14:20] {RonS} NFLX getting hit on this now RT @bricktop13 $VZ planning streaming video service to rival $NFLX & cable
[14:34] {Threei}  (FR) France PM Fillon: France will do whatever is necessary to maintain its AAA rating
[14:34] {Threei}  well, curiously enough, if it does, it will hurt EU
[14:38] {dino} .
[14:38] {Threei}  again, no news for this spike
[14:38] {dino} sprd sm l .30 last try
[14:41] {RonS} omg...lol...read it to the end:  http://tinyurl.com/79al49k
[14:44] {Threei}  always hated that guy
[14:53] {Threei}  Ben denies secret loans
[14:53] {Threei}  http://www.federalreserve.gov/generalinfo/foia/emergency-lending-financial-crisis-20111206.pdf
[14:53] {RonS} FT is reporting that the EU is considering a second fund to combat the sovereign debt crisis. Essentially another fund in addition to EFSF.
[14:54] {Threei}  yes
[14:54] {dino} a fund of funds, lol
[14:54] {Threei}  ESM
[14:54] {Threei}  it's not new
[14:54] {Threei}  EFSF was supposed to wind down and be replaced by ESM
[14:54] {Threei}  now they say let's run both side by side
[14:54] {Threei}  as if amount of money available increases, lol
[14:59] {Threei}  OK
[14:59] {Threei}  ben says no 7.7T
[14:59] {Threei}  no 13B
[14:59] {Threei}  no nothing
[15:02] {patience} 4 members of fed get replaced in jan.... 3 hawks, 1 dove leaving, being replaced by 4 doves.  qe3 early in the year maybe?
[15:03] {Threei}  unless streets turn into battlefield
[15:03] {patience} fooey, should have held my quadra mining, it is up 40percent today
[15:14] {Threei}  market is obviously pricing in "resolution Friday"
[15:15] {dino} buy the rumor...
[15:26] {Threei}  Generic Republican 49%, Obama 41%
[15:26] {dino} gotta hop
[15:26] {dino} out sprd .70, +.40
[15:29] {Threei}  nice hop
[15:40] {Threei}  6 out of 7 today, nothing to complain about... why do I feel like I wasited the day, lol
[15:40] {Threei}  it's this long period of no trades that creates such feeling
[15:43] {patience} it feels like being in the exam hall with 1000 people, waiting for the exam to be passed out..everybody waiting
[15:46] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .80 break
[15:46] {Threei}  last trade
[15:46] {Threei}  changing to .75
[15:47] {Threei}  stop under .70
[15:47] {Threei}  no need for much room
[15:47] {Threei}  works fast or we don't want it kind of things
[15:49] {Threei}  half out .82
[15:49] {Threei}  stop to .74
[15:50] {Threei}  Newt Gingrich, at 31%, holds lead in Iowa over Mitt Romney (17%) and Ron Paul (16%) in new CBS/NYT poll
[15:50] {Threei}  out second half .88
[15:51] {Threei}  nice end to the day
[15:51] {Threei}  wanted this last scalp to make second half worthwile
[15:51] {Threei}  thank you, have a good evening
[15:51] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:54] {patience} ty vad

Dec 05 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership. Free trial is available)

Tough day with no pronounced direction and sudden news-driven spikes. We started with a few stops, then clawed back some with a few careful trades and finally evened the day out with last SLW short. Breakeven, all in all. 



Session Time: Mon Dec 05 00:00:00 2011
[09:03] {dino} gm
[09:03] {Threei}  morning dino
[09:03] {Threei}  I knew it was too good to last... sooner or later one has to face reality and wake up...
[09:04] {dino} indeed
[09:04] {ese} morning
[09:04] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:04] {ese} wake up from what
[09:04] {Threei}  from weekend bliss
[09:04] {ese} indeed
[09:05] {Threei}  what a weather for decemebr
[09:06] {ese} fabulous weather
[09:07] {ese} differenis tiet types of light for photography......i really enjoy this time of year
[09:07] {ese} different
[09:08] {ese} although...smokin busy on my end 5 shows to do this week
[09:13] {dino} crazy weeks, drop 9% then run 7%
[09:13] {Threei}  and with EU resolution coming this week, we may be in for more of the same
[09:16] {swill} :)morning
[09:18] {ese} swill
[09:21] {Threei}  swill :)
[09:25] {Threei}  (EU) France President Sarkozy: Complete agreement with Germany has been reached, to disclose details in letter to EU President Van Rompouy
[09:25] {Threei}  that's market spike last couple bars
[09:26] {RonS} gm...eur spiking
[09:26] {Threei}  ron :)
[09:26] {Threei}  see above
[09:26] {Threei}  EU treaty for all 27 member sates should be revised
[09:26] {Threei}  ummm... that's what they agree on?
[09:27] {Threei}  - Would prefer that treaty changes take place at the level of the entire 27 members of the European Union, however treaty change could be limited to the 17 euro zone states. - Want automatic sanctions on deficits over 3%, to provide a way for a qualified majority to block automatic sanctions - Agreed on private sector contributions to future bailouts
[09:28] {Threei}  bunch of bs
[09:29] {Threei}  feels to me details will disappoint the market
[09:30] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .1 break half lot
[09:31] {Threei}  valid
[09:32] {Threei}  stop above .25
[09:32] {ese} L TLEO .63
[09:32] {ese} going like stink
[09:33] {ese} out 1/2 .84 +.21
[09:33] {Threei}  no qworky
[09:33] {RonS} tleo speculation of orcl purchase w/ sap buy of sfsf
[09:34] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .50 break
[09:34] {ese} tks
[09:34] {ese} wow
[09:34] {Threei}  if stays above .35
[09:34] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:35] {ese} out in full .17 +.54
[09:35] {dino} gj
[09:35] {ese} went 400/400 spreads were ridiculous
[09:36] {dino} fcx rinsed
[09:36] {swill} nice one ese
[09:37] {ese} tks
[09:37] {RonS} IL...Discovery Group LLC reported a 5.8% stake in the software manufacturer.
[09:37] {ese} was a yoyo
[09:37] {Threei}  - German Chancellor Merkel: Essential that the summit meetings this week regain European credibility, structural changes are needed in Europe.
[09:37] {Threei}  - Constructive fiscal rules are needed in Europe, via treaty revisions, with binding debt limit rules.
[09:37] {Threei}  - Fiscal discipline cannot be achieved without treaty chages, current treaties do not facilitate hard debt limits. Debt limits must be uniformly defined for the euro zone.
[09:37] {Threei}  - Euro zone members will move ahead with treaty changes alone, if needed.
[09:37] {Threei}  - Greece is and will remain an exceptional case.
[09:37] {Threei}  - Reiterates once again that euro bonds are not a solution for the current crisis.
06[09:39] * pragmatic charts not working
[09:39] {dino} fcx hl s .97
[09:41] {Threei}  FCX rinsed by a few cents
[09:41] {pragmatic} anyone else having problems with charts?
[09:41] {Threei}  yes
[09:41] {pragmatic} ah ok. easy now
[09:41] {ese} oddly enough not here
[09:42] {swill} my charts ok
[09:42] {cipher} charts not working
[09:43] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .30 break
[09:43] {Threei}  if stays above .15
[09:43] {swill} my charts out now
[09:45] {Threei}  server 1 is back up
[09:46] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .20 break
[09:46] {Threei}  ugh, late
[09:46] {swill} jumper
[09:46] {Threei}  maybe comes back
[09:46] {Threei}  for second chance
[09:47] {ese} ADSK would have been a nice bounce play this morning dino
[09:47] {Threei}  ok
[09:47] {Threei}  in .22
[09:47] {Threei}  stop under .10
[09:47] {Threei}  target about .50
[09:48] {dino} 07 red
[09:50] {Threei}  no go
[09:51] {Threei}  hmm
[09:52] {dino} fcx stop
[09:54] {Threei}  so far, net getting rythm
[09:56] {swill} this too will pass
[09:56] {Threei}  no doubt
[09:57] {ese} L MDT .04
[09:59] {Threei}  bad ISM numbers
[09:59] {Threei}  52 v 53.8E
[09:59] {ese} what the heck is that all about
[10:01] {dino} sm s fcx .28
[10:01] {ese} stopped .85
[10:01] {ese} -.19
[10:02] {dino} cov .24 fcx
[10:03] {Threei}  market is badly confused
[10:03] {Threei}  look at today's announcements:
[10:03] {dino} yeah, me too
[10:03] {Threei}  1. treaty change is neded - not something that can be accomplished fast or easy
[10:03] {Threei}  2. austerity measures for the eurozone - guaranteed recession
[10:03] {dino} damn too tight fcx
[10:04] {Threei}  3. no eubonds
[10:04] {Threei}  all the reasons to drop but it's just monday
[10:04] {Threei}  final resolution is Dec 9, Fri
[10:05] {Threei}  so here is plenty of announcements ahead
[10:05] {Threei}  and a lot oh hope for a miracle
[10:06] {Threei}  staying with half lot for now
[10:07] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .10 break
[10:07] {Threei}  if stays above 27
[10:08] {ese} daaaaaaaa MDT
[10:08] {ese} finicky mrkt
[10:08] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:08] {Threei}  changing to 27 break long
[10:08] {Threei}  if stays above .90 of course
[10:09] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:14] {ese} L MDT .09
[10:15] {Threei} Long Setup:  DXY  .20 break half lot
[10:16] {Threei}  pulled back for entry
[10:16] {pragmatic} empty chart for DXY
[10:16] {dino} same
[10:16] {Threei}  crap... DXY
[10:16] {Threei}  mistype
[10:16] {Threei}  sigh
[10:16] {Threei}  OXY is right one
[10:17] {Threei}  never mind
[10:17] {pragmatic} man, you need a new keyboard :)
[10:18] {Threei}  or new set of eyes, O and D looked very close
[10:18] {pragmatic} :)
[10:18] {pragmatic} Is OXY still valid ?
[10:18] {Threei}  no
[10:18] {Threei}  hit 1:1
[10:18] {Threei}  pulled all the way back
[10:19] {ese} stop to break even MDT
[10:19] {Threei} Long Setup:  HUN  .35 break
[10:20] {Threei}  if stays above .30
[10:20] {Threei}  double lot for a scalp
[10:24] {Threei}  disregard HUN, water torture
[10:26] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .75 break
[10:29] {Threei}  target 1:2
[10:30] {Threei}  1:1, half out
[10:31] {ese} nope...stopped MDT +/- .00
[10:33] {dino} slw stop flat
[10:36] {ese} L MDT .02
[10:36] {Threei}  Canada will withdraw from the Kyoto Protocol by the end of next year
[10:37] {RonS} why wait?
[10:37] {Threei}  really
[10:39] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .70 break
[10:39] {Threei}  if stays above .60
[10:39] {Threei}  full lot
[10:41] {Threei}  target 1:2
[10:43] {dino} uvv sm l .50 gappy
[10:51] {Threei}  {Market} I've no idea what to do
[10:51] {Threei}  {Traders} neither do we
[10:51] {RonS} lol...The Macys Thanksgiving Day Parade team is on call for the Trump-Gingrich summit just in case someone's head deflates
[10:52] {Threei}  lol
[10:53] {RonS} tie spike
[10:55] {RonS} from ryan baird:  TIE: Harrold Simmons, who already owns 28 mln shares is rumoured to have agreed with Contran Corp (45 mln share owner) to take TIE private at $20.25 per share cash. http://tinyurl.com/6ocujf6
[10:56] {Threei}  wow.. TZA may work this millenia
[11:03] {Threei}  1:1
[11:03] {Threei}  half out
[11:04] {Threei}  I don't think I've ever seen TZA taking this long to move 10 cents
[11:06] {swill} slow mo set up
[11:07] {Threei}  snail speed
[11:08] {Threei}  like poking an amoeba
[11:08] {swill} lol.  I'm afraid I didn't wait
[11:09] {Threei}  not even for 1:1?
[11:09] {swill} I'm too impatient today
[11:10] {swill} need to adjust I guess
[11:11] {Threei}  just don't try to outsmart the system
[11:11] {Threei}  taking scalp instead of poartialing, fine, that's a matter of personal preference
[11:12] {Threei}  but attempt to get rid of stops by getting out as soon as you have any profit, no
[11:12] {Threei}  that will turn around and bite you in you-know-what
[11:13] {swill} thanks
[11:15] {RonS} 3i, any idea nemo return?
[11:15] {Threei}  he is in the process of broker replacement
[11:16] {Threei}  his missive over weekend: http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2011/12/nemos-findings-for-week-of-124.html
[11:25] {Threei}  marjket retreats but I don't have a feeling of decisive reversal
[11:26] {dino}  stmp drop
[11:27] {RonS} $STMP down 6% on USPS proposed cutbacks.
[11:28] {dino} ty
[11:31] {RonS} ilmn running
[11:32] {thomcbell} takeover spec
[11:32] {thomcbell} SI
[11:32] {Threei}  (EU) ECB's Nowotny: Have seen dollar liquidity operations from last week having an immediate impact
[11:32] {Threei}  - outlook for growth is weak in Europe and in the US. Have seen signs of a bond run in some nations.
[11:32] {Threei}  - Notes time is running out for a debt crisis solution to be put in place.
[11:34] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .15 brwak
[11:35] {Threei}  invalidated
[11:37] {dino} ilmn s .00
[11:38] {dino} cov .62, +.38 ty ron
[11:38] {RonS} np
[11:39] {Threei}  (IA) EU officials said to be reconsidering a possible embargo on Iran oil; feel it may backfire and cause prices to rise - financial press
[11:44] {Threei} Long Setup:  DO  .75 break half lot
[11:45] {Threei}  if stays above .65
[11:45] {dino} hitk beats and drops
[11:59] {dino} hitk sm l trig .00
[11:59] {RonS} hitk sm l .90
[11:59] {dino} lol
[12:00] {dino} ilmn spike
[12:01] {cipher} +.38 ilmn short thx
[12:01] {dino} gj
[12:02] {cipher} l do .51
[12:02] {dino} foreign bank preferreds jumping
[12:05] {Threei}  PAA
[12:05] {Threei}  sloq climb
[12:05] {Threei}  slow
[12:09] {cipher} out do .62 +.11
[12:14] {dino} hate to see hitk miss earnings
[12:14] {Threei}  lol
[12:21] {dino} 38.50 gap area
[12:32] {nemo} So, Friday afternoon I come out of the woods a little early tired from swamp walking and bush whacking
[12:33] {nemo} I pull out of where I was parked
[12:33] {nemo} drive a couple hundred yards down the road
[12:33] {nemo} behind a house in a very residential area are 7 does and a big 10 point buck
[12:33] {nemo} wtf
[12:33] {Threei}  so how manyh humans you had to shoot to get to them?
[12:34] {nemo} yeah
[12:34] {RonS} did he flip you the bird?
[12:34] {nemo} so I get out of my truck and stand in the driveway with my binoculars
[12:34] {nemo} dog next door comes over to challenge the buck
[12:34] {nemo} buck looks at him like "Are you serious?"
[12:35] {nemo} So, I'm standing, and the woman who owns the house pulls into the driveway
[12:35] {nemo} Asks me what I'm doing...I point
[12:35] {nemo} "Wow, I've never seen one with horns before."
[12:35] {dino} lol
[12:35] {nemo} So, I give her a verbal synopsis of deer behavior
[12:35] {Threei}  lol
[12:36] {nemo} The buck starts making a scrape at the back of her yard
[12:36] {nemo} "He's tearing up my grass!"
[12:36] {nemo} So I explain the process
[12:36] {nemo} I start grunting at him
[12:36] {nemo} Not the brightest idea
[12:36] {cipher} ilmn l .31
[12:37] {nemo} He turns around thinking I'm a competitor for his girls
[12:37] {nemo} He drops his head and his shoulders like he's going to charge
[12:37] {RonS} but did she turn around hot for you?
[12:37] {nemo} I look at the lady and say, "You might want to get ready to run into the house."
[12:38] {nemo} I think she was a pinko, and I'm standing there in full camo...I seriously doubt it
[12:38] {RonS} "a pinko"...rotflol
[12:39] {Threei}  ILMN Hearing JP Morgan making cautious comments, sees rumor of deal as unlikely
[12:41] {cipher} out ilmn -.11
[12:41] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .50 break
[12:41] {Threei}  half lot
[12:42] {dino} ilmn sm s .20
[12:44] {Threei}  1:1
[12:45] {dino} hitk sm l .09
[12:49] {cipher} +.25 hitk thx dno
[12:49] {dino} ilmn to flat
[12:49] {cipher} dino
[12:49] {dino} gj
[12:49] {cipher} ilmn looks dead
[12:50] {dino} stop flat
[12:52] {Threei}  1:2, out
[12:56] {dino} ilmn sm s .25
[13:01] {nemo} hey dino, reading an article from a boston sports writer about the patriots secondary:  "They may be improved, but playing against quarterbacks like Tyler Palko, Vince Young and Orlovsky — who kept intact his record of having never quarterbacked an NFL team to victory — revealed nothing about them except this: Their secondary could give up 350 passing yards to Venus de Milo"
[13:02] {dino} lol
[13:02] {nemo} yeah, he's right though, they've been an abomination this year
[13:04] {dino} they just have a great offense, sort of like the colts used to
[13:04] {nemo} yeah, and a lousy defense
[13:04] {cipher} ilmn s .20
[13:04] {nemo} that Gronkowski is a beast
[13:04] {dino} yes
[13:05] {nemo} he's a couple of sandwiches short of a picnic too
[13:08] {dino} bstop to .95 ilmn
[13:08] {cipher} covered ilmn .85 +.35
[13:09] {dino} gj
[13:09] {nemo} ilm topped here at vwap
[13:13] {dino} cov ilmn .71, +.54
[13:13] {cipher} nice
[13:13] {nemo} think it goes to .28 or so
[13:15] {swill} .
[13:23] {Threei}  IMF Board Approves �2.2B Loan Tranche For Greece
[13:26] {Threei}  (EU) EU's Barroso: It is a good signal that Sarkozy and Merkel are willing to adjust the treaty; sees possibility of treaty changes in four months time
[13:27] {Threei}  giess who is coming on TV
[13:27] {Threei}  long time no see
[13:27] {nemo} Demi Moore dissing Ashton Kutcher
[13:27] {RonS} nemo and the buck?
[13:27] {nemo} bunny
[13:28] {Threei}  you guys are so out shape...
[13:28] {nemo} pot calling the kitchen black
[13:28] {nemo} let's see you follow my ass through the woods
[13:29] {Threei}  I'll just wait on the shore
[13:29] {dino} ilmn sm s .48
[13:30] {nemo} ballsy dino
[13:30] {RonS} so cold here that the bunnies come and peak in the sliding glass door...
[13:30] {nemo} sniff sniff
[13:31] {nemo} it's kinda' funny...at the store on the game load shotgun shells is a picture of a rabbit...I get a little rattled every time I see it
[13:33] {dino} cov .18, +.30
[13:34] {cipher} wtg
[13:34] {dino} ty
[13:36] {RonS} sheesh peek not peak...must be losing it
[13:36] {Threei}  sorry ron
[13:36] {Threei}  my fault
[13:36] {dino} vad rubbing off on you
[13:36] {Threei}  my spelling rubs off of people
[13:37] {RonS} at least not spelling lose...loose...pet peeve of mine
[13:41] {nemo} o.k. gonna' go find something to slaughter
[13:42] {Threei}  (EU) S&P warns Germany and other AAA rated members of euro zone will announce today that ratings will be put on ratings watch negative - FT
[13:42] {Threei}  part poopers
[13:43] {Threei}  party too
[13:43] {dino} fcx s .49
[13:43] {Threei}  I gues bulls got too complacent
[13:45] {dino} stop uvv -.11
[13:45] {dino} cov fcx .32, +.17
[13:51] {Threei}  EUR/USD Falls to US session lows below $1.3440
[13:53] {dino} fcx s .10
[13:55] {dino} cov -.13
[14:06] {Threei}  wow
[14:06] {Threei}  day low
[14:12] {dino} hitk gap fill
[14:13] {dino} sm l .80
[14:15] {dino} stop
[14:15] {Threei}  SLW is very weak
[14:23] {Threei}  (DE) Danish Econ Min: Denmark is open to EU treaty changes but only in the context of all 27 EU members
[14:23] {Threei}  uhhu
[14:23] {Threei}  good luck with that treaty chnage
[14:24] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .95 break
[14:24] {Threei}  stop above 33
[14:24] {Threei}  target about .80
[14:25] {Threei}  covering half
[14:25] {Threei}  stop to .96
[14:26] {dino} sprd drop
[14:33] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .25 break
[14:33] {Threei}  I am one winning trade away from breaking even
[14:34] {Threei}  hopefully this is it
[14:34] {Threei}  target .45
[14:34] {Threei}  stop under .10
[14:38] {Threei}  SPY lost a crashing look
[14:38] {Threei}  out TZXA for now
[14:38] {Threei}  .18
[14:41] {Threei}  what a swamp-like market today
[14:41] {dino} tough day
[14:42] {Threei}  my guess is: we have overcome Monday curse and gap up day curse,
[14:42] {Threei}  but today we have both of them
[14:42] {Threei}  so...
[14:43] {cipher} +.84 hitk thx dino
[14:43] {Threei}  nice
[14:44] {dino} lol, you do better than i on my picks
[14:44] {cipher} bought on gap fill
[14:44] {cipher} was a rollecoaster though innitially
[14:44] {dino} pulp type
[14:44] {cipher} lol
[14:46] {cipher} sprd .65 sm
[14:47] {Threei}  can't get a feel for the end of day direction
[14:47] {Threei}  should be down but tough
[14:47] {dino} down
[14:47] {Threei}  watching TZA for another entry
[14:51] {Threei}  no confidence
[14:52] {cipher} out sprd .82 +.17
[14:52] {swill} blame the market
[14:52] {dino} gj
[14:59] {cipher} hitk down again
[15:01] {cipher} hitk l .45 sm
[15:02] {dino} got .50 here
[15:05] {Threei}  (EU) All 17 EMU nations may be put on Credit Watch Negative by S&P - US Financial Press
[15:06] {Threei}  right... why waste time and paper for individual downgrades
[15:06] {Threei}  purely news-driven market today
[15:07] {Threei}  unless you are accidentally in on the right side right before the news, good luck catchign the move
[15:08] {RonS} Denmark will refuse to recognise SP downgrade unless in involves all 27 EU nations
[15:09] {RonS} ...joke...
[15:09] {Threei}  I like it
[15:11] {Threei}  so dino... we were right about down but how on earth do you trade this, lol
[15:12] {dino} ask cipher, he's doing well
[15:13] {dino} pick stocks that are fu'd on their own and trade them i guess
[15:13] {cipher} out hitk .88 +.43
[15:13] {dino} gj
[15:13] {Threei}  yeah
[15:13] {cipher} lol i don't know anything
[15:20] {Threei}  Announcement may come as early as after 16:00ET - financial press
[15:22] {Threei}  breakdown is coming on SPY
[15:22] {Threei}  .50 is critical support
[15:22] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .60 break
[15:23] {Threei}  unless of course they announce they downgrade only 16
[15:23] {Threei}  now get this nugget of wisdom:
[15:23] {Threei}  (GR) IMF Official: Greece program is in a difficult phase
[15:24] {Threei}  value added, eh
[15:28] {dino} lol
[15:30] {Threei}  SOY .50 break should make SLW .60 break work
[15:30] {Threei}  SPY
[15:30] {Threei}  here we go
[15:32] {Threei}  held .60 this time
[15:39] {Threei}  OK
[15:39] {Threei}  let's make it day-rescuing trade please
[15:42] {Threei}  1:1
[15:42] {Threei}  fiorst partial
[15:42] {Threei}  want 1:3
[15:43] {Threei}  1:2 will put me at b/e
[15:43] {Threei}  1:3 will make it + day
[15:45] {Threei}  1:2
[15:45] {Threei}  out another part .41
[15:45] {Threei}  b/e
[15:45] {Threei}  stop to .55
[15:53] {Threei}  out last piece
[15:53] {Threei}  well, at least I erased the loss
[15:54] {Threei}  (EU) Officials in Europe said to be confirming that S&P will be placing the EU-17 nations on credit watch negative
[15:57] {Threei}  if this cuit takes place, emaining S&P AAAs: Canada, Australia Hong Kong, Singapore, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom
[15:59] {Threei}  thank you all
[15:59] {Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow
[15:59] {patience} ty vad

Nemo's Findings for week of 12/4

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership. Free trial is available)

Here are the levels for next week:

On the IWM the WPP and a Semesterly Support level are on top of each other.  Good place for a bounce. The QPP on the SPY has a strong confluence so that area is likely to be sticky.

Here is the link:  http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=32be1f37-2a08-4f50-bd05-1a57c6b178e6

Dec 02 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership. Free trial is available)

Not very active but profitable day, ending nice week with 1 flat and 4 profitable sessions. Also, new course that we have been talking about for a while has its own page now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html


Session Time: Fri Dec 02 00:00:00 2011
[08:48] {Threei}  *(US) NOV UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 8.6% V 9.0%E (lowest since March 2009)
[08:49] {Threei}  *(US) NOV CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: 120K V 125KE; CHANGE IN PRIVATE PAYROLLS 140K V 150KE
[09:09] {dino} gm all
[09:10] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:12] {Threei}  Workforce declines by 315,000 thus the drop in unemployment rate
[09:12] {Threei}  heh
[09:12] {Threei}  data wizards at work
[09:14] {dino} "spin"
[09:14] {dino} you can tell its an election year
[09:14] {Threei}  one of the best reasons for a gap:
[09:14] {Threei}  European banks move higher, led by French banks, amid reports that the EBA might not make the stress test criteria more strict
[09:18] {Threei}  totally
[09:18] {Threei}  just wait till republican nominee emerges... that's when silly season starts in full glory
[09:19] {ese} morning.....no concerts today.......phewwwwww!!!!!1
[09:19] {Threei}  hey ese
[09:20] {Threei}  missed good day yesterday...
[09:20] {ese} howdy vad
[09:20] {ese} how so
[09:20] {Threei}  one of the cases where both I and dino kicked a$$
[09:20] {ese} thats cool to hear.......congrats
[09:22] {swill} morning
[09:22] {Threei}  I have a page for the upcoming course up dfor your sneak preview
[09:22] {Threei}  swill :)
[09:22] {Threei}  will show it when market calms down
[09:23] {Threei}  suggestions on better wordings, misspells and bad grammars are appreciated
[09:24] {Threei}  market slides ever from job report
[09:24] {Threei}  as glotoficus as it looks
[09:24] {Threei}  glorificus
[09:25] {Threei}  RIMM on radar fopr short
[09:26] {Threei}  the rest is usual suspects
[09:28] {dino} big filling gap
[09:30] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .40 break
[09:30] {Threei}  if stays under .50
[09:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .20 break
[09:31] {Threei}  half lot
[09:31] {Threei}  if stays above .10
[09:31] {Threei}  SLW 1:1
[09:32] {Threei}  if you were lucky to get it
[09:32] {Threei}  FCX 1:1
[09:32] {Threei}  SLW 1:2
[09:33] {Threei}  FCX was strange play, against the market
[09:35] {Threei} Short Setup: SLV  .30 break
[09:36] {Threei}  if stays under .40
[09:38] {pragmatic} not in short list for me
[09:38] {dino} nor i
[09:39] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .30 break
[09:39] {Threei}  half lot
[09:39] {Threei}  SLV 1:1 who could short it
[09:39] {Threei}  RIMM{ if stays under .\45
[09:41] {Threei}  LVS 1:2
[09:41] {Threei}  die RIMM
[09:42] {Threei}  {RIMM} yes sir. As you say sir.
[09:42] {Threei}  1:1
[09:42] {Threei}  that's 4 for 4. You know my next question, right?
[09:42] {pragmatic} home ?
[09:42] {dino} answer no
[09:42] {Threei}  and I know your answer...
[09:42] {Threei}  lol
[09:44] {thomcbell} scalpers win
[09:44] {Threei}  on what?
[09:44] {Threei}  not on RIMM... 1:2
[09:45] {pragmatic} guess, just in general
[09:45] {dino} cov rimm .98, +.31 ty vad
[09:45] {Threei}  welcome
[09:46] {thomcbell} si
[09:48] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .10 break
[09:48] {Threei}  half lot
[09:49] {Threei}  if stays above 47
[09:49] {Threei}  stop is tight enough for full lot but this one has wierd spasm sometimes
[09:49] {dino} 07 red
[09:49] {Threei}  don't want to get caught in one of thoses
[09:51] {Threei}  no go
[09:52] {dino} uvv?
[09:52] {dino} gap fill
[09:53] {Threei}  I don't see news
[09:53] {Threei}  Nov 23 last
[09:53] {Threei}  filed mixed shelf
[09:53] {dino} nothing here either, just gap fill
[09:54] {Threei}  ugh
[09:54] {Threei}  RIMM had more in it
[09:54] {Threei}  thought of another short but decided not to anger trading gods
[09:55] {dino} uvv sm l .35
[10:01] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .15 break
[10:02] {Threei}  if stays above .05
[10:02] {Threei}  target about 1:2
[10:03] {Threei}  hmmm... doesn't follow SPY
[10:03] {Threei}  not delighted
[10:03] {Threei}  no go
[10:04] {dino}  stop
[10:05] {dino} big lod
[10:11] {cipher} +.29 BIG thx dino
[10:11] {dino} gj
[10:11] {Threei}  nice
[10:12] {dino} wabc sm l .09
[10:20] {thomcbell} KLAC - Vad - u mock the saviour of western civilizaation
[10:20] {dino} out wabc ave .83, +.74
[10:21] {cipher} wtg
[10:21] {Threei}  48 break...
[10:21] {Threei}  could be
[10:21] {dino} ty
[10:21] {Threei}  nice one dino
[10:22] {dino} thx
[10:25] {dino} idcc sm l .89
[10:26] {dino} vhc running
[10:26] {dino} wabc drop again
[10:30] {dino} idcc to flat
[10:31] {dino} to .99
[10:33] {dino} uvv to flat, stuck
[10:34] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .85
[10:39] {dino} major power outage
[10:40] {Threei}  1:1
[10:40] {dino} idcc to .18
[10:41] {dino} to .23
[10:41] {dino} out uvv -.03
[10:42] {dino} out idcc .25, +.36
[10:44] {Threei}  out SLW in full
[10:44] {Threei}  1:3
[10:45] {Threei}  anyone is breathing?
[10:45] {Threei}  or I can sfely go to the weekend
[10:46] {dino} can't borrow it today, lvs, slv, slw
[10:46] {pragmatic} how about X ?
[10:47] {Threei}  ?
[10:47] {pragmatic} these four not in short for me today
[10:47] {pragmatic} talking to dino
[10:47] {dino} x no go
[10:49] {dino} uvv, big close to lod
[10:58] {cipher} what's uw?
[10:59] {dino}  u v v
[10:59] {cipher} oh
[11:00] {cipher} gotcha
[11:00] {dino} ;)
[11:00] {dino} 41.80s month ago supp
[11:01] {dino} sfly, zumz
[11:04] {thomcbell} some entry on slw Vad
[11:05] {Threei}  ?
[11:05] {dino} uvv sm l .25
[11:07] {Threei}  I see no news for this selloff
[11:07] {dino} stop -.20
[11:07] {dino} nothing here
[11:09] {dino} rinsed
[11:11] {thomcbell} the 10 year yield on Italian bonds got Below 6.50- a huge pivot     and quickly recovered back above and is now trading @ 6.61     - this seems to be what the equity market is watching
[11:11] {Threei}  to me, it's only a matter of time till they go back above 7
[11:11] {dino} fxe lod too
[11:11] {Threei}  unless central banks buy them themselves
[11:14] {dino} uvv db?
[11:14] {Threei}  hmm
[11:14] {Threei}  nah
[11:14] {Threei}  not liking it
[11:15] {Threei}  breakdown is very possible
[11:18] {dino} sm l .15
[11:19] {dino} wprt spike
[11:26] {Threei}  euro losy 60% of gain after swap rates announcement
[11:26] {Threei}  not exzactly vote of confidence
[11:26] {Threei}  lost
[11:28] {Threei}  one possible reason for market reversal:
[11:28] {Threei}  http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/196779-conservatives-craft-bill-to-prevent-imf-bailout-of-crumbling-eurozone
[11:32] {Threei}  *(SP) FITCH RESPONDS TO EARLIER MARKET RUMORS; HAVE NO PLANS TO DOWNGRADE SPAIN
[11:32] {Threei}  - Reminder: The three major ratings agencies last downgraded Spain in mid October
[11:36] {Threei}  ok guys
[11:36] {Threei}  sneak review
[11:37] {Threei}  preview
[11:37] {Threei}  http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html
[11:38] {Threei}  gimmie feedback
[11:39] {Threei}  (US) President Obama: Congress should not leave for the holidays until action is taken on unemployment benefits and payroll tax cut
[11:39] {Threei}  hmm
[11:39] {Threei}  I disagree
[11:40] {Threei}  congress shoudl leave for the holidays, never to return
[11:40] {Threei}  holidays forever
[11:40] {Threei}  maybe we stand a chance then
[11:41] {dino} uvv to .60
[11:42] {dino} out +.45
[11:42] {Threei}  wtg
[11:42] {Threei}  tough trade
[11:42] {Threei}  for a minute looked like was going to be killed
[11:42] {dino} yeah, almost stopped it
[11:42] {Threei}  wow, l,ook at this beauty:
[11:42] {Threei}  *DJ IMF Says Could Raise Funds From European Countries, Central Banks
[11:42] {Threei}  rofl
[11:43] {Threei}  IMF raises money from european countires to lend it to european countries
[11:43] {Threei}  now I get it
[11:43] {dino} you know, this rally is based on a solution, which i am failing to see
[11:45] {Threei}  for those who don't read facebook, here is what I posted two days ago:
[11:45] {Threei}  as impressive as this manic rally is, it's still an action of an addict who just got another fix. Nothing is solved - this is not a crisis of liquidity, it's a crisis of indebtedness and (potential) insolvency, with lack of liquidity being just a consequence and a symptom. Injections or financial trickery with swap rates can buy time but don't do anything to solve the underlying problem.
[11:45] {Threei}  Sure, markets hop in joy seeing new money coming in and facing no immediate collapse. As usual, trade what you see and not what you think - but do keep in mind that crisis resolution got merely postponed.
[11:45] {Threei}  today:
[11:45] {Threei}  Steen Jakobsen, Saxo Bank: The market loves cheap liquidity and has reacted positively to yesterday�s coordinated move on USD swap lines, but this debt crisis is a problem of solvency � not one of liquidity/printing money, which makes the intervention a de facto exercise of extend-and-pretend, version 5.0.
[11:46] {Threei}  that about sums it up
[11:50] {Threei}  ok, this was uncalled for:
[11:50] {Threei}  (US) Former St Louis Fed's Poole: US is only a few years behind Greece
[11:50] {Threei}  who asked him to tell the truth?
[11:50] {dino} well think about it, tarp hit in sept '08, we bounced then dropped historically into 09
[11:50] {Threei}  (US) France Pres Sarkozy scheduled to meet with US Treasury Sec Geithner on Dec 7; two days before the EU summit
[11:50] {Threei}  yup
[11:51] {Threei}  ssme is going to happen here
[11:51] {Threei}  possibly worse
[11:51] {dino} gut call, yes
[11:51] {Threei}  and, as unpleasant as it sounds, it's a good thing
[11:51] {Threei}  excess must be flushed out of the system
[11:51] {Threei}  otherwise we can never start recovery
[11:52] {Threei}  real one
[11:52] {Threei}  not financed by trickery
[11:52] {dino} should have taken the pain last year
[11:52] {dino} wow uvv
[11:52] {cipher} l ibm .66
[11:54] {cipher} out .86 +.20
[11:55] {dino} gj
[11:59] {Threei}  ron is slacking today
[11:59] {dino} indeed
[12:09] {Threei}  ok, any comments on the webapge?
[12:16] {dino}  reads well vad
[12:17] {Threei}  ty
[12:23] {thomcbell} it sure does Vad
[12:23] {Threei}  cool
[12:23] {Threei}  will index it over the weekend then
[12:26] {jakob} I like the intro Vad
[12:26] {Threei}  ty
[12:27] {Threei}  by the look of it, two weeks to completion should be doable
[12:40] {patience} good morning
[12:40] {Threei}  morning patience
[12:44] {dino} sm l big .06
[12:48] {dino} wabc sm l .90
[12:48] {Threei}  (EU) ECB's Stark: More sovereign nations are encountering financing issues; need urgent solutions; solutions lay with Governments
[12:48] {Threei}  - Notes that low interest rates may discourage bank deleveraging
[12:48] {Threei}  - Economic outlook has worsened given uncertainty and downside risks
[12:53] {dino} big to flat
[12:56] {dino} out big .20, +.14
[12:56] {Threei}  nice sclaping
[12:56] {dino} ty
[12:56] {dino} look uvv coming down again
[13:01] {dino} sm l .00
[13:14] {dino}  wabc stop -.19
[13:30] {dino}  stop uvv .70, -.30
[13:38] {dino} uvv sm l .64
[13:42] {dino} zmh drop
[13:47] {dino} zmh sm l .10
[14:01] {Threei}  Herman Cain campaign says they will be making a "major announcement" in Georgia tomorrow
[14:01] {Threei}  lemme guess...
[14:02] {Threei}  9-9-9 is 36-24-36 now?
[14:03] {dino} lol
[14:03] {Threei}  finally
[14:06] {dino} going to fill pen gaps
[14:06] {dino} open
[14:16] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .60 break
[14:17] {Threei}  tight stop .66
[14:17] {Threei}  target about .45
[14:23] {dino} uvv to .27
[14:23] {dino} out +.63
[14:31] {dino} zmh gap fill
[14:32] {dino} re-load sm l .15
[14:36] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .90 break
[14:36] {Threei}  as easy as morning was, this swamp is not my environment
[14:37] {Threei}  but eod should lead to selloff
[14:44] {dino} zmh to .69
[14:45] {dino} to .75
[14:46] {dino} to .79
[14:47] {dino} to .85
[14:48] {dino} out .87, +.72
[14:49] {dino} tough crowd
[14:49] {Threei}  heh
[14:50] {Threei}  tell me about it
[14:50] {dino} :D
[14:57] {Threei}  RIMM close enough to 1:1
[14:57] {Threei}  out
[15:04] {dino} wow zmh drop again
[15:06] {dino} seems a lot of stocks are working to fill tues close gaps
[15:06] {dino} volc on its way
[15:16] {dino} look zmh range
[15:16] {dino} 48.20-.90 and back
[15:22] {dino} ok, calling it a week, thx all for ideas, good time
[15:26] {Threei}  more selling to come it feels
[15:29] {Threei}  can't decide, to look for one last tarde or pack it for the weekend
[15:29] {Threei}  swill, have you seen the course page?
[15:30] {Threei}  I think you weren't in the room when I posted a link
[15:30] {swill} no.  I missed it.  darn
[15:30] {Threei}  nop worry
[15:30] {Threei}  http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html
[15:30] {swill} I'll have a look
[15:34] {swill} I have told my wife this is my christmas present
[15:35] {Threei}  you remember that as a room member you have it at 50%, right?
[15:35] {swill} grateful I am
[15:48] {patience} happy birthday for you tomorrow vad, have a wonderful day celebrating this milestone in life   :)
[15:48] {Threei}  ty
[15:48] {Threei}  Ok guys, thank you all
[15:48] {Threei}  have a good weekend
[15:48] {Threei}  see you on Monday
[15:49] {swill} happy birthday.  see you

Market Review and Outlook: December 2011/January 2012

Outlook: December 2011/January 2012

Act Now! Don't Delay!

The past year has been characterized by a series of false starts that ended in successive failures to restore confidence in the economy and markets. The shaky global economy, battered by the 2008 financial swoon, kept trying to get up off the mat only to be clobbered again by prevaricating politicians who failed to lead us out of crisis and by a series of once-in-a-generation events, which never allowed markets to gain any traction. The Japan earthquake, the Arab Spring, the debt ceiling debacle in Washington, and round two of the Greek crisis cut short nascent rallies in confidence. The equal and opposite reaction has been a mounting pile of uncertainty, growing as fast as the debt levels in troubled economies.

The failure to restore confidence has led to subpar growth in the G7 which is starting to erode the Asian economic boom as well. Economists have trimmed growth expectations for this year and next, with many now predicting Europe is bound for recession, which could in turn drag the US into a double dip, and dent China which relies on Europe as its biggest export market.

In the face of these dark clouds gathering, political leaders are failing to act boldly on a global scale. Washington remains at loggerheads over the most meager deficit reduction plans, Beijing has only started to realize it may need to brace for a hard economic landing, and Brussels keeps putting off its day of reckoning by agreeing to "plans for a plan." Central banks have papered over some of the politicians' mistakes, but can only do so much. The global economy will continue to suffer and may even spiral lower if political leaders continue to kick the can down the road and don't rally at this perilous moment to enact forceful strategies to restore confidence.

Time is a Precious Commodity

For most of the summer, the slide in confidence was a boon for gold investors, but the yellow metal has lost its luster as the "alternative currency" in recent weeks. Initially gold started selling off as a way to pay off margin calls in other asset classes, but it has failed to reignite even as volatility and risk-averse behavior has persisted.

Crude futures have outperformed precious metals over the last two months, gaining over 25 percent and topping out over the $100/barrel mark for the first time since July, when the recovery had seemed more certain. At the century mark, crude prices could become another drag on the economic rebound. Energy prices may in part be responding to the growing tensions between the West and Iran after a new IAEA report indicated that Tehran has not wavered in its aspirations for weaponizing its nuclear program. The report triggered a new round of sanctions against the Iranian regime including some of the first aimed at crimping its oil export business and was fodder for renewed speculation that Israel or even the US might resort to bombing Iran's testing facilities. Since the IAEA report, there have been reports of two mysterious explosions near Iranian nuclear and missile bases, fueling the chatter that covert actions may already be underway against Iran. For its part, the government in Tehran has threatened to counterattack against newly installed NATO early warning radar systems in Turkey at the first sight of foreign warplanes.

Beyond Iran, the undercurrent of upheaval that started during the Arab Spring has never really subsided. Iran's satellite state, Syria, while not an oil rich nation, threatens to further destabilize the region as deserting soldiers have formed the core of an armed revolution against the Assad regime. Meanwhile Cairo's Tahir Square has filled will protestors against the military junta that took over after Mubarak was deposed, even as Egpyt begins a four month, 12-round voting process, the largest democratic exercise ever undertaken in the Arab world. The protestors fear the election procedures that have been set up are flawed and will not require the military to fully cede power. Thus the vote is no guarantee that violent clashes will subside.

These remnants of the Arab Spring form the backdrop for the next meeting of OPEC ministers in Vienna on December 14. The last OPEC conclave six months ago ended in delegates storming out of the meeting, unable to agree on quotas and with Saudi Arabia unilaterally boosting its output to offset production lost to Libya's civil war. This month's meeting may be more conciliatory, as members are likely to maintain their overall quota, while making allowances for the ramp up of Libyan oil output, which has already reached about half of the 1.2M barrels per day that it produced before the uprising against Gaddafi.

Buying Time

The global recovery has been hamstrung by a record year for natural disasters, from hurricanes and tornados in the eastern US running up insurance payouts, to the Japan tsunami causing destruction and supply chain disruptions, to the floods in Thailand that sent the tech industry scrambling to replace lost production. US companies reporting decent Q3 results, solid Black Friday retail sales, and fund manager's playing "catch up" -- racing into the year end to get their lagging performance in line with the benchmark S&P performance -- have helped maintain a floor in equities. This autumn, hopes that the noises out of Europe could gel into a real crisis resolution plan bought more time before traders punished political inaction. After the surprising October rally in equities fueled by the "hope trade," stocks turned more cautious, selling into rallies.

With confidence under continuous assault from the headlines and the housing market indefinitely in the gutter, the key measure for the temperature of the US economic climate remains the employment figures. In the last month, weekly jobless claims have been trending lower with the four-week average firmly below the psychological 400 thousand mark. The monthly data has been less encouraging with unemployment remaining stubbornly above nine percent, and non-farm and private payrolls unable to exceed a listless 100 thousand pace. It is widely accepted that it takes a growth pace of over 200 thousand to make headway on unemployment while absorbing new entrants to the job market. Even with seasonal hires at holiday retailers, the consensus estimate for non-farm payrolls is under 150 thousand when the next data point is released on December 2.

If data trends continue to tread water or sink beneath the waves rippling out of Europe, the Federal Reserve may find itself shouldering the burden of more unilateral stimulus. Markets have been egging on the Fed to deliver a QE3 program, and the expectation that the central bank will conduct more asset purchases has helped undergird the markets to a certain extent. The Fed has done little to dispel this expectation, and indeed at the last FOMC press conference Bernanke's responses intimated the Fed now has QE3 on a hair trigger in case of a severe downturn that could come from a European collapse or other exogenous event. Bernanke also reiterated, however, that the Fed cannot go it alone and Congress needs to get cracking on a fiscal consolidation plan, though that call continues to fall on deaf ears. Still any QE3 announcement is likely to be put off until next year given the Fed's historical tendency to abstain from policy action during December.

In this continually uncertain atmosphere, retailers seeking to build on positive Black Friday sales, face a wildcard event that could play the Grinch this season. Three unions representing about a third of America's rail workers have been unable to reach a contract extension with Union Pacific, CSX, and Burlington Northern and a strike action is possible if there is no deal by the end of a cooling-off period that ends on December 6. With this deadline threatening next month's peak shipping season, retail and auto industry representatives have asked President Obama and Congress to broker the talks, but it could become another political football as it pits corporate and union interests against each other.

The Waiting Game

The Confederacy of Dunces in Washington D.C. imagine that the 2012 elections will solve their political gridlock, either by fulfilling the Republican's avowed goal of making Obama a one term President, or by handing Obama a mandate for deficit reduction that accepts tax increases a necessary component. The half hearted efforts of the ill-conceived Supercommittee are illustrative of this belief on both sides of the aisle. Immediately after the committee failed, the volleys of accusations between Democrats and Republicans on Capitol Hill resumed. Some Republicans, nervous about automatic cuts in defense spending triggered by the Supercommittee's failure to draft larger deficit reductions, have begun looking for ways to undermine the so-called "sequester." Such efforts appear to be a non-starter though as the President has vowed to veto any efforts to scale down the $1.2T in cuts required by the sequester.

The next round of politicking on Capitol Hill has begun already as Democrats have proposed extending the two percent middle-class payroll tax cuts set to expire in 2012, funded by a surcharge on people making over one million dollars a year. Republicans who have held the line on new taxes all year, and fear the repercussions of defying the Grover Norquist anti-tax pledge, are reluctant to bend this time either, counting on Democrats to fold again and agree to offset the payroll tax cut with more spending reductions. Another bargaining chip before Congress in December will be whether or not to further extend unemployment benefits. Taken together, the unemployment benefits and the payroll tax break would have a one percent impact on GDP in 2012, enough to make the difference between modest or anemic growth.

Another month of partisan bickering over how to fund the payroll tax extensions could trigger renewed US sovereign downgrade chatter -- after all S&P based its US downgrade in August chiefly on the political climate, and Fitch and Moody's have also scolded Washington for its partisan antics. Yet the deadlock in D.C. has gotten so poisonous that the two parties seem resigned to kicking the can down the road and letting the 2012 election decided the way forward, even at the risk of a fresh ratings downgrade unleashing the nightmare scenario.

I'll Gladly Pay You Tuesday...(For A Bailout Today)

Sovereign downgrades have become a monthly occurrence in Europe where contagion has swept through the periphery -- Ireland, Portugal, Greece, Spain and then Italy -- and now threatens to enter the core nations of France and Germany. French banks have been under pressure for months because of excessive exposure to Greek debt, and another warning sign was seen in the failure of Franco-Belgian bank Dexia, which had to be nationalized in October. Belgium was downgraded recently by S&P and France is forced to rebuff rumors about losing its AAA-rating on an almost weekly basis. Meanwhile, Germany had its biggest scare to date in the technical failure of a debt auction in late November. While this was not the first bund auction to go technically uncovered, it was ill timed as it came amid reports that foreign investors have started to reduce their holdings of German debt, shying away even from the bedrock of the Euro Zone until the crisis comes closer to some sort of resolution.

In the periphery, the situation in Greece has been put on the back burner for the time being after finally meeting the requirements for its 6th aid tranche in December. Funding issues may arise again early next year when Greece must again meet muster for its next aid payment (the Greek finance ministry has stated that it needs the 7th aid tranche before the end of February). The core euro zone nations have made it clear that the Greeks will have to make a conscious choice to toe the line or face a renewed consideration of an orderly exit and default.

With Greece off the front pages, Italy became the focus of concern. Despite complying with demands for additional austerity plans and the ouster of their flamboyant PM, Italy's borrowing costs have become unsustainably high. Recent reports allege that the IMF has been pulling together up to six hundred billion euros for an emergency aid package that could prop up Italy if necessary. This report has been denied repeatedly by officials, but versions of it continue to resurface in the press, with the latest suggesting the IMF might have only one hundred billion euros to spare if Italy comes calling for aid.

Meanwhile the efforts to beef up the EFSF bailout fund have been forced toward more meager goals. The original plan to leverage the EFSF by up to five times to over one trillion euros, has been deflated by a decidedly cool reception from investors wary of the lack of political will in Europe to unite behind a grand salvation plan. EFSF officials toured Asia hat in hand, but returned with little to show for their efforts, and there was even a report (which were quickly denied) that the EFSF was forced to buy some of its own debt to pad fund raising results. This has led officials to concede the leveraging may only reach two or three times and could require additional incentives for investors, including limited guarantees against losses (on the order of 20-30%). EFSF chief Regling has stated that the fund will go to the markets in December, but expects to go it slow, cautioning that he does not expect to raise hundreds of billions in funds in December. The progress of this fund raising bears watching this month, as it will be closely tied to the level of outside confidence in the Euro Zone, which currently remains very low.

European leaders can't seem to get in front of the downward confidence and debt spiral, unable to agree on the path forward. Most EMU members want to move toward joint euro bonds and designating the ECB as the lender of last resort, but German Chancellor Merkel remains unwilling to support these irreversible steps given that the German people would have to foot most of the bill. Berlin has been resolute in its stance on these issues, but a shift may be underway. Within the last few days one of the so-called German "wisemen" suggested that the ECB may indeed have to take up the mantle of lender of last resort if politicians fail to craft a better plan, reflecting the sentiment of many observers who feel the central bank will inevitably be drawn in to that role.

Is China Stalling?

On the same day that G7 central banks announced coordinated action on dollar swaps to ensured liquidity would not seize up in Europe (Nov. 30), China's central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for commercial lenders for the first time in three years. The 50 basis point cut was the first reduction in the RRR after a campaign of twelve hikes over the last two years, and clearly an effort to ease strains in the domestic credit market and give a boost to a slowing economy. Market reaction was positive to this quasi-coordinated move, though bears suggested the Chinese cut the reserve ratio to preempt a bad reaction to another contraction seen in manufacturing data that came out less than 24 hours later.

Over the course of 2011, China Manufacturing PMI data has trended downward, revisiting multi-year lows several times, culminating in a near three-year low in the most recent data. This descending data series was in part engineered by a year's worth of policy tightening directed from Beijing in a reasonably successful effort to avoid overheating the economy. The RRR cut signals that government planners have begun to fear a slowdown more than inflation.

Inflation pressure has been a more stubborn problem for China, fueled by strong growth but also by domestic real estate speculation. Chinese CPI has moderated slightly in recent months after peaking at an uncomfortable 6.5 percent in July. The next round of China inflation data is due out on December 11, and hopes are that the trend will continue to moderate alongside the tempered economic growth rate, but they may be thwarted as industrial commodity prices have been trending higher lately, led by oil.

If Europe and the US contain their woes, the Asian economic boom that has kept the global system afloat for the last few years may take its turn facing market scrutiny in 2012. Though official Chinese data paints the picture of a soft landing in which the state has beaten back inflation and maintained an impressive growth rate, some empirical evidence belies this success story.

Indications of a potential hard landing are most evident in the Chinese real estate market. Widely published reports document the ferocious real estate investment activity that largely precipitated China's policy tightening cycle and resulted in the construction of whole cities in remote provinces that are virtual ghost towns where most of the sparse populace has been engaged in money lending to support continued property speculation. Indeed real estate investment now accounts for about 10 percent of China's GDP, but policy changes have started to curb this activity, and some Chinese have begun to worry that a housing bubble is about to be pricked as it was in the US three years ago.

Compounding the concerns about growth next year, China is heading into its Lunar New Year holiday, known as the Spring Festival. The year of the Dragon begins on January 23, 2012, and festivities usually extend for two weeks, meaning much of China will be in holiday mode through early February. This could exacerbate the slide in manufacturing data on a year over year basis.

The Can Has Been Thoroughly Kicked

Meanwhile, Europe has no time to go on holiday. Central banks have shown they will act in the absence of government action, but their tools will ultimately fail without it. Again and again, European leaders have put off the painful decisions that need to be made to right the Euro Zone. The most recent supposed deadline that was allowed to come and go without a resolution plan was the November G20 meeting in Cannes. The latest pronouncement out of Brussels came from the EU's finance commissioner Olli Rehn shortly after the coordinated central bank dollar swaps action on November 30. Rehn warned that within the next ten days leading up to the EU summit leaders must conclude the crisis response with a plan for completing deeper economic integration or face the gradual disintegration of the union. After dozens of such decrees for senior European officials in recent months, it remains to be seen if Rehn is crying wolf again.

Not long after Rehn's t-minus 10 declaration, the ECB's new President Draghi indicated that the central bank could be persuaded to provide more direct support if the member states accelerate plans for modest integration efforts sooner rather than focusing on sweeping integration later. Under its new leader, the ECB has already brought its independence into question after it reversed a tightening course and cut interest rates, nominally to support flagging economic growth. Sensitive about questions of its independence, the ECB has been very reluctant to be drawn into the role of the EMU's "lender of last resort" to governments as the Fed does in the US. If the Euro Zone grand plan offers enough accountability for members who violate its terms, the ECB may be ready to accept treaty changes that would broaden its role and allow it to support the EFSF backstop mechanism.

After all of these delaying tactics, the foundation for greater integration may finally be laid at the December 9 EU summit. The latest proposals are steering the Euro Zone toward strict rules for taxation and spending with real enforcement backed by courts. If Chancellor Merkel can shepherd her colleagues into a more binding union, trading some sovereignty for more stability, the Euro Zone may emerge stronger. But timing will be crucial in formulating this master plan; the first steps of integration must be rapid enough to assuage markets and convince the ECB to give its blessing, but still rigorous enough to ensure weaker EMU members will not drag the union back into crisis by flouting fiscal rules.

Never Put Off Until Tomorrow...

Until a convincing crisis resolution plan is in place, Europe will remain the focus of global markets. The only way to save the Euro Zone in its current form seems to be to go all in, compromise the independence of the central bank, and pledge German's sovereign status to defending the euro. But Germany and the ECB appear determined to take this plunge only when it is on their own terms.

Merkel has insisted that the way forward is to incrementally tighten the political and fiscal structures of the member states to compliment their monetary integration. But this process will require extensive treaty revisions and ratifications in the 17 EMU parliaments, which the EFSF approval earlier this year demonstrated to be a laborious process.

Instead, the practical solution that is taking shape is to take a smaller but still meaningful integration step in the near term. A series of dilatory tactics -- the latest being the coordinated central bank swaps action -- have bought some time, but market patience may soon wear thin. This global version of the 'Bernanke put' may allow political leaders to kick the can yet again, but as bank chiefs have often stressed, they cannot go it alone without earnest and credible efforts from governments. Ultimately, political leaders must do the job of forging sensible fiscal consolidation plans that can steer their economies out of this mess. A prolonged political stalemate will only stall growth in developed nations, and exacerbate imbalances in the emerging markets.

Chancellor Merkel's strategy meetings with Sarkozy and top EU officials in the coming days could set the table for a Santa Claus rally. If she outlines a credible plan for a rapid and moderately-scaled integration ahead of the EU summit (Dec. 9), it could restore much of the confidence that has been drained away since this summer. Market action headed into December indicates that the traders are giving credence to Europe's latest effort, but if the new plan is once again lacking details or impetus, markets may not be as forgiving this time around. Greater Euro Zone integration will necessarily require strict adherence to fiscal consolidation and austerity programs, a sure recipe for more economic contraction in the short term, but that is surely a better outcome than the collapse of the euro.


Calendar of Notable Events

Nov 28: first round of Egypt elections
Nov 30: China Manufacturing PMI and HSBC PMI

Dec 1: US ISM Manufacturing PMI
Dec 2: Merkel speech outlining EU Summit proposals
Dec 2: US Payrolls and Unemployment
Dec 5: US Non-Manufacturing PMI
Dec 7: German Industrial Production
Dec 8: ECB rate decision and press conference; MPC (BOE) rate decision and statement
Dec 9: EU SUMMIT
Dec 11: China CPI, PPI, and Trade Balance
Dec 13: FOMC rate decision and statement; US retail sales; BOJ Monthly report; German ZEW economic sentiment
Dec 14: Euro Zone CPI; OPEC meeting
Dec 15: US PPI
Dec 16: US CPI
Dec 20: BOJ policy statement and press conference; German Ifo Business Climate
Dec 22: US Final Q3 GDP; UK Final Q3 GDP; China HSBC Flash PMI
Dec 23: US Durable Goods Orders; US New Home Sales
Dec 26: US and Europe markets closed for Christmas holiday
Dec 31: China Manufacturing PMI

Jan 2: New Year's Day holiday observed
Jan 3: US ISM Manufacturing PMI
Jan 6: US Payrolls and Unemployment
Jan 18: US PPI
Jan 19: US CPI
Jan 23: Chinese New Year (Year of the Dragon), Golden Week
Jan 25: FOMC policy statement and press conference
Jan 27: US Q4 advance GDP report

Feb 3: US Payrolls and Unemployment

Outlook above is a courtesy of TradeTheNews - real time news service. Free trial is available.

Dec 1 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership. Free trial is available)

7 calls, 6 wins. Bacon jokes. Another day in the office. No complaints at all.


Session Time: Thu Dec 01 00:00:00 2011
[08:39] {Threei}  (US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 402K V 390KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.740M V 3.650ME
[08:39] {Threei}  - Prior Initial Claims revised higher from 393K to 396K
[08:39] {Threei}  - Prior Continuing Claims higher from 3.691M to 3.705M
[09:07] {Threei}  good news:
[09:07] {Threei}  apparently Rasmussen found the way to calculate the % of people whose mind left their bodies and moved to another universw
[09:07] {Threei}  proof? here:
[09:08] {Threei}  6% Say Congress Doing Good or Excellent Job
[09:08] {RonS} ...those are the brokers of the congress...gm
[09:09] {Threei}  that was my first thought, but 6% seems too high for that
[09:09] {dino} gm
[09:10] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:15] {swill} morning
[09:16] {Threei}  swill :)
[09:17] {Threei}  trying to get a feel for the main theme for today
[09:17] {Threei}  seems to me, should be long (barring news of course)
[09:17] {Threei}  shorts shouldn'tn't escape with just one day squeeze, even such big squeeze
[09:18] {Threei}  somewhat greenish, then small gap down on bad job numbers..
[09:18] {Threei}  feels like foundation for another green day is being laid out
[09:20] {Threei}  larisa... thank goodness
[09:20] {Threei}  one sane person in this asylum
[09:20] {larisa} gm :)
[09:21] {RonS} clwr halt
[09:21] {Threei}  what a month you missed
[09:21] {Threei}  CLWR Clearwire Sprint and Clearwire reach funding deal; to operate WiMax network through at least 2015
[09:25] {Threei}  LULU will be a funny one today... dino, your potential client
[09:28] {dino} watching it
[09:30] {dino} 39.30s gap
[09:30] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .35 break half lot
[09:31] {Threei}  if stays under .45
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .70 break
[09:32] {Threei}  FCX 1:1
[09:32] {Threei}  1:2
[09:33] {Threei}  SLW if stays under .80
[09:33] {dino} cov fcx .20, +.14 ty vad
[09:34] {Threei}  welcome sir
[09:34] {Threei}  SLW 1:1
[09:35] {Threei} Short Setup: QCOM  .45 break half lot
[09:35] {Threei}  if stays under .55
[09:36] {Threei}  SLW 1:2
[09:37] {Threei}  out in full .46
[09:37] {dino} gj
[09:37] {Threei}  QCOM trail to .51
[09:37] {Threei}  ty
[09:37] {Threei}  market is getting ready to snap back
[09:38] {Threei}  out QCOM
[09:38] {Threei}  small profit but I have a feel I better get out of the way
[09:39] {dino} 124.47 pivot
[09:39] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .40 break
[09:40] {Threei}  formally you can keep stop under .35
[09:40] {Threei}  1:1 for srop under .30
[09:41] {Threei}  1:3 for .35 :)
[09:41] {Threei}  kidding, it's .30 for me
[09:41] {Threei}  1:2
[09:41] {Threei}  1:3 out in full
[09:41] {Threei}  here is my snapback
[09:42] {Threei}  glad you are not in shrts anymore?
[09:42] {Threei}  look at QCOM
[09:42] {Threei}  no news btw, clean technical shot
[09:42] {Threei}  good intuition Threei
[09:42] {Threei}  why thank you Threei
[09:43] {swill} yes
[09:43] {thomcbell} FCX NICE BOUNCE
[09:43] {dino} out slw .64, +.22
[09:43] {dino} ty
[09:43] {Threei}  :)
[09:43] {Threei}  4 out of 4
[09:43] {Threei}  can I go home
[09:43] {Threei}  ?
[09:43] {dino} nope
[09:43] {Threei}  I know... could I ever
[09:44] {thomcbell} AAPL cant hold bid
[09:44] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .60 break\
[09:44] {Threei}  half lot
[09:45] {pragmatic} hmm, 59 and then 64 right away
[09:45] {Threei}  yeah, jumped
[09:46] {Threei}  very nice of it to give second chance
[09:46] {Threei}  1:2
[09:46] {Threei}  1:1, sorry
[09:47] {Threei}  out
[09:47] {Threei}  close enough to 1:2
[09:49] {Threei}  how's that for a snapback?
[09:49] {swill} very snappy
[09:49] {Threei}  hehe
[09:50] {dino} out fcx .84, +.23 ty vad
[09:51] {RonS} zagg sm l .92
[09:51] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:52] {thomcbell} good job Vad
[09:53] {Threei}  ty
[09:56] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .70 break
[09:56] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:56] {RonS} wow, had not looked before...zagg 52% float short
[09:57] {Threei}  numbers are coming,, let's back off a bit
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) NOV ISM MANUFACTURING:52.7 V 51.8E;
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) OCT CONSTRUCTION SPENDING M/M: 0.8% V 0.3%E
[10:01] {Threei}  what's with this crazy drop
[10:01] {pragmatic} CNBC guys seems to be excited
[10:01] {Threei}  I see nothing horrible in numbers
[10:01] {Threei}  who leaned on a wriong button?
[10:01] {Threei}  now, that's more like it
[10:02] {dino} ston sm l .31
[10:02] {Threei}  lol, dino is back to his ATM
[10:03] {Threei}  Geithner wows to fight to prevent opponents from weakening Dodd-Frank
[10:03] {Threei}  idiot
[10:03] {dino} out ston .61, +.30
[10:03] {Threei}  there... ATM works
[10:04] {dino} wow too soon
[10:04] {cipher} s ston .96
[10:05] {dino} wtg
[10:05] {cipher} out .48 +.48
[10:06] {cipher} thx dino for idea
[10:06] {dino} wpi sm l .00
[10:06] {dino} np
[10:07] {RonS} zagg stop to .05
[10:08] {dino} gj
[10:09] {dino} wpi to /98
[10:09] {dino} .
[10:12] {dino} stop wpi -.02
[10:16] {RonS} stop zagg +.13
[10:17] {dino} gj
[10:21] {dino} kss sm l .51
[10:21] {dino} gil blood
[10:26] {dino} kss stop -.24
[10:28] {cipher} kss .18 l late
[10:29] {cipher} out .35 +.17
[10:29] {dino} gj
[10:29] {cipher} thx dino
[10:34] {Threei}  (EU) IMF: No discussions have taken place regarding ECB lending to the IMF; IMF likely revise down global GDP forecasts
[10:34] {Threei}  - Calls on US to extend the payroll tax and unemployment benefits; no forecast for double dip recession in the US
[10:34] {Threei}  - Notes that any ECB lending to the IMF would be within current law
[10:34] {Threei}  - Once again reiterates that the IMF has not been in discussions with Italy on financing
[10:34] {Threei}  - Discussions on Greece tranche scheduled for Monday; IMF to meet with Greece Govt on Dec 12-16
[10:35] {Threei}  hmm?
[10:35] {Threei}  EU Calls on US to extend the payroll tax and unemployment benefits?
[10:36] {dino} lol, why would you listen to those bozos
[10:36] {Threei}  amazes me that they are concerned about that
[10:38] {cipher} l cat .68
[10:40] {cipher} out flat
[10:47] {RonS} so, is ese teaching full time these days?
[10:47] {dino} ston sm l .45
[10:48] {cipher} ibm l .84
[10:51] {Threei}  busy season for him
[10:54] {dino} ston stop -.20
[10:58] {RonS} ston...guess people stopped dieing...
[10:58] {Threei}  or they prefer alternative means of burying
[10:58] {dino} debt downgrade
[10:59] {RonS} their investors must be watching that zombie show
[11:00] {Threei}  I for one intend to find some sedductive vampiress when my time comes, leave STON with no busness of mine and whatever I do, stay clear of Buffy from that moment on
[11:00] {RonS} lol
[11:01] {dino} but buffy is hot, hard to stay away
[11:02] {dino} wpi sm l .00
[11:02] {dino} lng l .86
[11:05] {cipher} out ibm .15 +.31
[11:05] {dino} pfg drop
[11:06] {RonS} think conf call going on...
[11:07] {thomcbell} KLAC trades great
[11:07] {thomcbell} same with sbux today
[11:07] {thomcbell} klac trades great
[11:08] {thomcbell} kind of funny
[11:10] {RonS} klac reminds me of the mars attacks movie
[11:10] {thomcbell} bhp nasty
[11:10] {thomcbell} crude getting smacked
[11:11] {Threei}  Bank of America Corp Massachusetts Attorney General said to be filing suit against 5 banks over deceptive foreclosure practices; press conference to take place at 13:00ET
[11:11] {Threei}  Crestor patent is dead
[11:11] {Threei}  this is great week for cholesterol-infested
[11:11] {Threei}  well, those of them who relied on drugs anyway, instead of bacon
[11:11] {RonS} infested...brutal
[11:11] {Threei}  lol
[11:12] {Threei}  I for one cured cholesterol with more bacon, and it worked great
[11:14] {dino} wpi stop +.10
[11:18] {thomcbell} anything news for this move?
[11:20] {Threei}  no
[11:20] {thomcbell} tell that to bhp fans
[11:20] {thomcbell} lord god
[11:21] {thomcbell} high volume doji 15 on spy good one today
[11:22] {thomcbell} vad
[11:22] {Threei}  what time?
[11:23] {thomcbell} 10:15
[11:23] {thomcbell} closed below the low at 10:45
[11:24] {thomcbell} not a huge index move but if you played fcx or bhp at the time - big moves
[11:25] {Threei}  dear Santa... need a hint? here:
[11:25] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/XCOAh
[11:25] {RonS} ston just chewed through a 12k offer at 21 in seconds
[11:27] {thomcbell} what does STON do?
[11:27] {RonS} http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ston&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
[11:28] {Threei}  buries people, tbell
[11:28] {RonS} apparently in more ways than one...
[11:28] {Threei}  lol
[11:28] {Threei}  rofl
[11:28] {cipher} l ibm .05
[11:28] {Threei}  that's where those vampire jokes earlier came from
[11:28] {cipher} l cat .00
[11:29] {thomcbell} Wow Ron - that looks like a good site
[11:29] {thomcbell} FINVIZ
[11:30] {RonS} yep
[11:30] {cipher} out ibm + .24
[11:30] {cipher} stopped cat -.10
[11:30] {Threei}  market loses lows
[11:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .90 break
[11:31] {Threei}  half lot
[11:32] {thomcbell} good jokes above - haha
[11:32] {Threei}  invalidated
[11:32] {Threei}  but looking for better entry
[11:32] {Threei}  .80 break
[11:32] {Threei}  if holding .70
[11:34] {Threei}  .75 break
[11:34] {Threei}  if holding .65
[11:35] {dino} wpi sm l .51
[11:36] {Threei}  that's it SPY... roll over and die
[11:38] {Threei}  good boy
[11:39] {Threei}  what ws that?
[11:40] {Threei}  no news
[11:40] {Threei}  yet
[11:40] {Threei}  but the move is obviously news-related
[11:58] {RonS} dino, is ston going for a gap fill?
[11:58] {dino}  where?
[11:59] {RonS} got a trigger?  thinkin 22.20 break might get a quick move to 80'sish
[12:00] {dino} no, lost on it
[12:00] {RonS} so, is it dead to you?
[12:01] {RonS} :)
[12:01] {dino} yes, unless it retests lod
[12:01] {dino} altho you may be right, moving up
[12:01] {patience} good morning
[12:02] {RonS} ah so, gm to the golden girl...
[12:02] {patience} let me check
[12:03] {patience} yup, still in profit in my gold plays
[12:03] {Threei}  morning patience
[12:03] {dino} afternoon here
[12:03] {Threei}  actually, here too
[12:03] {patience} crack of 9am here
[12:03] {Threei}  whole 3 minutes
[12:03] {Threei}  oh wait, my compurter time in NY
[12:04] {Threei}  never mind
[12:04] {dino} thought you moved
[12:05] {Threei}  looking at your weather? never
[12:05] {RonS} US committed to take steps to freeze Iranian Central Bank assets and to work with allies to take similar action, US official says -
[12:06] {patience} so vad, i have a kitten being dropped off at my house saturday...thought of your place as its new home   what do you think?
[12:07] {Threei}  hmmm
[12:07] {patience} it speaks russian
[12:07] {RonS} lol
[12:07] {patience} it comes with gold coins
[12:07] {Threei}  does it drink vodka?
[12:07] {patience} and a year's supply of cat food
[12:07] {patience} nope, no vodka but it will pour it for yu
[12:07] {Threei}  getting tempted
[12:08] {dino} wpi to .81
[12:09] {Threei}  ok... throw Transformer Prime in, and I am sold
[12:10] {dino} out wpi .84, +.33
[12:10] {Threei}  wtg
[12:10] {dino} ty
[12:18] {dino} txi spike
[12:24] {dino} wow 6 bucks
[12:24] {dino} not avail
[12:29] {dino} 9 bucks
[12:30] {Threei}  lol, best quote of the day
[12:30] {Threei}  Okay, who put a "stop payment" on my reality check?
[12:32] {RonS} $TXI ends stand still pact with another company, dont know who
[12:32] {RonS} what is "stand still pact"?
[12:32] {Threei}  Google Inc Planning to develop system of delivering goods same day or next day to customers; discussing the initiative with shippers and retailers - financial press
[12:33] {Threei}  here it is Ron:
[12:33] {Threei}  - Under the agreement, the NNS Parties had agreed not to take certain actions with respect to the Company, including among other things not to acquire more than 20% of the outstanding common shares of the Company or more than 20% of the outstanding principal amount of publicly held notes issued by the Company, not to effect any tender offer, exchange offer, merger, acquisition, recapitalization or other extraordinary transaction involving the Company
[12:34] {Threei}  in other words, TXI is free from this now
[12:53] {dino} kss l .00
[13:01] {dino} gil l .95
[13:10] {Threei}  wow
[13:10] {Threei}  National GOP Poll: Gingrich 38% Romney 17%
[13:10] {Threei}  can't believe it... I was sure Romney has it all but clinched
[13:13] {RonS} on the one hand newt is the smartest guy in the room
[13:13] {RonS} on the other that smarmy smile means he thinks it and that makes people hate him
[13:13] {Threei}  no doubt... enough to listen to him speaking to gather as mu8ch
[13:13] {Threei}  latter is very true too, lol
[13:14] {dino} agree ron
[13:14] {RonS} dems love to hate newt
[13:14] {dino} kss to .12
[13:14] {Threei}  he has rare ability to coin phrases that have wings, and do it on the go
[13:14] {Threei}  but gosh, he is so easy not to like
[13:15] {dino} media never critizes obamination, but they did to perry, cain, next newt, etc
[13:16] {Threei}  anyway, I start doubting it really matter who will run eventually
[13:16] {Threei}  it will be obama's election to lose
[13:16] {dino} 4 more yrs obamination will destroy usa
[13:16] {Threei}  if people will have had enough of him, they will vote for whoever
[13:16] {dino} out kss .19, +.19
[13:17] {RonS} gj
[13:17] {RonS} ok, don't puke:  SARKOZY SAYS EUROPE IS 'NO LONGER A CHOICE BUT A NECESSITY'
[13:17] {dino} thats what i hope 3i
[13:17] {Threei}  ron... that warning about not puking was timely but in vain
[13:19] {patience} in intc
[13:20] {Threei}  here is interesting piece from sarkozy:
[13:20] {Threei}  On EU integration: - Decisions on way forward must be made by a 'qualified majority' rather than unanimous decisions; the Schengen agreement should be overhauled.
[13:22] {Threei}  here is a cvery tough case for me to decide where my sympathies are:
[13:22] {Threei}  Google Inc Hearing chatter circulating that European Commission may be preparing to announce its allegations of abuse of search dominance soon
[13:22] {Threei}  **REMINDER: 08/02 : A press report stated ttat the EU commission was evaluating approximately 9 anti trust issues related to Google. In February the EU said its anti trust probe was continuing and that it wasn't in talks with Goggle on a settlement.
[13:22] {Threei}  I don't like google dominance
[13:22] {Threei}  and I don't like EU putting its nose in every business
[13:23] {Threei}  choices choices...
[13:23] {RonS} wcrx spike
[13:27] {RonS} inhx a monster
[13:29] {patience} anybody read Invisible Hands: Top Hedge Fund Traders  on Bubbles, Crashes and Real Money?
[13:29] {dino} no
[13:29] {patience} second edition published this spring
[13:29] {dino} you read it? was it good
[13:29] {patience} have read chunks of it, trying to find a pdg
[13:29] {patience} pdf
[13:29] {patience} hugh hendry, one of the guys i follow is one of the chapters
[13:31] {patience} it is very good for me in how these traders think
[13:32] {dino} gil stop -.13
[13:35] {dino} mmyt drop
[13:35] {thomcbell} ston
[13:36] {Threei}  patience... dcc
[13:37] {dino} wcrx s .72
[13:43] {thomcbell} klac vad
[13:43] {Threei}  dunno... not liking hiow it trades
[13:43] {thomcbell} just keeps grinding higher
[13:44] {dino} mmyt all over
[13:44] {thomcbell} i was looking at it showing relative strength this am
[13:44] {dino} cov wcrx .55, +.17, ty ron
[13:47] {RonS} yw...still playing 400 sh lots?
[13:47] {dino} took fl on it
[13:47] {RonS} fl = flyer?
[13:48] {dino} lol full lot, 1k
[13:49] {RonS} ibm lookin to crack 190...cipher coulda nailed it for more than 25 cents!
[13:49] {RonS} :)
[13:53] {patience} feels like the market wants to do another hard run, actually starting to look forward to news stories just so the government floods newly printed money into the system...pavlovian response being built here
[13:54] {dino} feels up, but we are up 700
[13:54] {dino} +
[13:54] {patience} today, i slept in too long?
[13:56] {patience} Dino, did you ever read  Dying of Money: Lessons of the Great German and American Inflations?
[13:56] {dino} no, just death of money
[13:56] {dino} or when money dies i mean
[13:57] {patience} adam ferguson's book
[13:57] {dino} good?
[13:57] {patience} worth reading, got a pdf at mises.org on dying of money
[13:58] {patience} wanted to read about the 60's/70's in the u.s.    i lived it but was too young to appreciate what was happening then
[13:58] {patience} other than we got a small car
[14:00] {dino} yeah, i was grade school then, remember my father doing well w/r.e in late 70s
[14:24] {dino} fran drop
[14:24] {dino} wpi lod
[14:25] {RonS} hearing pfe selling lipitor for price of generic and wpi ceo whining about it
[14:26] {dino} thx
[14:26] {RonS} "unfair competition"
[14:26] {Threei}  bacon... same effect, more pleasure
[14:27] {RonS} more expensive...$4/lb here
[14:28] {Threei}  wrong methodology of comarison
[14:28] {RonS} damn koreans keep buying out pork...
[14:28] {Threei}  comparison
[14:28] {RonS} our
[14:28] {Threei}  after lipitor you still want to eat,
[14:29] {Threei}  so you have to add price of meal to price of lipitor for fair comparison
[14:46] {dino} zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
[14:47] {Threei}  sorry
[14:47] {RonS} wtf...ever heard of this one?  $LULU downward facing dog reversal in play
[14:47] {dino} lol
[14:47] {Threei}  lol
[14:47] {dino} woof
[14:48] {Threei}  I am trying hard to entertain you with my bacon intermissions... but it seems bacon is entertaining to me only
[14:49] {swill} have you decided weather you r going to put the videos and the coarse together or seperate?
[14:50] {Threei}  well, eventually they will be together
[14:50] {RonS} lol...General Motors will buy back Chevrolet Volts from any owner afraid electric cars will catch fire, CEO says
[14:50] {Threei}  I am just not sure I will be able to make video fast enough to release the whole thing in reasonable time
[14:51] {Threei}  if not, then I will release the first part and add video in couple weeks
[14:51] {Threei}  anyway it will take time to go over the first part
[14:52] {swill} will videos be on dvd?
[14:53] {RonS} will coinstar or netflix carry them?
[14:56] {Threei}  online
[14:57] {swill} cool
[15:01] {Threei}  looking at Newt on TV screen... seriously, can his imagemakers wipe that smug smirk off his face??
[15:02] {dino} keep it, it pisses off the dems
[15:02] {Threei}  with sandpaper if tat's what it takes
[15:02] {Threei}  well, it will piss off voters too
[15:02] {RonS} funny thing is he has that when he thinks he is being amiable
[15:02] {Threei}  they are being talked at for 4 years
[15:03] {RonS} when he is talking about a serious subject it goes away and he looks fine
[15:03] {Threei}  and here he comes saying wqith that smirk "I too am smarter than you all"
[15:03] {Threei}  *(IT) ITALY NOV BUDGET BALANCE: -�8.5B V -�1.9B PRIOR;
[15:03] {dino} well at least he does not lecture us
[15:04] {RonS} his real problem is that he refuses to have a handler like clinton had w/ dick morris
[15:04] {dino} thought you ment monica
[15:04] {Threei}  lol
[15:04] {Threei}  (US) Retailers send letter to Obama to take action to prevent strike; concerned may impact sales at holiday season - CNBC
[15:04] {Threei}  uhhu
[15:06] {Threei}  my prognosis: Dec 5 italians take Coliseum apart, stone by stone
[15:06] {Threei}  (IT) Italy PM Monti due to detail austerity measures on Dec 4
[15:28] {dino} mmyt sm l .65
[15:31] {dino} sam spike
[15:32] {RonS} little slow 3i, but does that mean on 12/4 italy will get the full monti?...
[15:32] {patience} very good ron
[15:33] {Threei}  clap clap
[15:33] {Threei}  and hey... slow is good
[15:33] {RonS} lol...golf clap...
[15:33] {RonS} NFLX just popped on a rumor Facebook may aquire
[15:35] {RonS} Netflix may be acquired by Facebook, CNBC's Greenberg speculates
[15:37] {dino} s .01 sm
[15:39] {dino} cov .41, +.60 ty ron
[15:39] {RonS} gj could not short
[15:39] {patience} nice
[15:40] {dino} ty
[15:48] {RonS} lol...from greenberg:  If people are genuinely bidding up $NFLX on my silly prediction that tells u all u need to know abt this market!
[15:48] {Threei}  if we finish about here, the size of the drop and volume are unimpressive; in absence of new news rally continuation is likely
[15:49] {swill} thanks vad. and thanks ron for the humor
[15:50] {dino} out mmyt .60 ave -.05
[15:53] {Threei}  humor?
[15:53] {Threei}  swill... you made my day
[15:53] {Threei}  week
[15:54] {Threei}  barely 1% of population recognizes what I say as humor
[15:54] {dino} think he thanked ron for humor
[15:54] {Threei}  ok guys, thank you all
[15:54] {Threei}  I know dino, I just tried to intercept the credit
[15:54] {Threei}  it's my only chance
[15:54] {swill} lol
[15:54] {RonS} rotflol
[15:54] {dino} ahhh, yes
[15:55] {larisa} bye :)
[15:55] {Threei}  that's how recognition-deprived I am in that department :)
[15:55] {patience} thanks vad
[15:55] {Threei}  see you all tomorrow
[15:55] {swill} the bacon was funny