Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Jan 18 2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  

 Slightly positive and incredibly boring day. Market is scared of itself. 


Session Time: Wed Jan 18 00:00:00 2012
[08:52] {thomcbell} good morning
[08:52] {Threei}  morning thom
[08:52] {Threei}  have you seen our 15:07 trade yesterday?
[08:53] {Threei}  contained reference to you
[09:07] {thomcbell} no i didnt see it Vad
[09:07] {JK13} morning everyone
[09:08] {Threei}  JK :)
[09:08] {swill} morning
[09:08] {Threei}  swill :)
[09:08] {Threei}  [15:07] {Threei} Long Setup: TZA .75 break
[09:08] {Threei}  [15:07] {Threei} if stays above .65
[09:08] {Threei}  [15:09] {Threei} 1:1
[09:08] {Threei}  [15:09] {Threei} nice and easy
[09:08] {Threei}  [15:09] {Threei} just as we like it
[09:08] {Threei}  [15:10] {Threei} 1:2, out
[09:08] {Threei}  [15:10] {Threei} 11:52] {thomcbell} disgusting really
[09:08] {Threei}  [15:10] {Threei} [11:52] {thomcbell} shameful
[09:08] {Threei}  [15:10] {Threei} color me ashamed
[09:08] {Threei}  [15:10] {Threei} again
[09:08] {thomcbell} hehe
[09:09] {Threei}  :)
[09:10] {Threei}  city is officially paralized
[09:10] {Threei}  paralyzed too
[09:10] {dino} gm
[09:10] {Threei}  swill, tell me you are not driving today
[09:10] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:11] {swill} i'm a pretty good snow driver
[09:11] {Threei}  won't help - there are others on the roads...
[09:11] {Threei}  anfd they see snow once every 5 years
[09:11] {swill} ok i'll hit them
[09:12] {Threei}  lol
[09:12] {Threei}  http://www.timescolonist.com/Wintry+blast+turns+Greater+Victoria+roads+into+rivers/6007630/story.html
[09:13] {swill} your right
[09:14] {Threei}  "voluntarily" redefined:
[09:14] {Threei}  PM Papademos said he will consider legislation that would force creditors to take losses on their holdings if no agreement can be reached.
[09:17] {rambler} morning...
[09:17] {Threei}  rambler :)
[09:17] {stewy} gd morning everyone
[09:17] {Threei}  stewy :)
[09:18] {Threei}  so far my inclinations are on a short side
[09:22] {Beau} good morning you all
[09:23] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:23] {swill} I wonder if ese will be closed to day
[09:23] {Threei}  I beklieve so, all schools are closed
[09:25] {RonS} gm...qotd:  That Goldman report was so bad I think Nick Cage was in it
[09:25] {Threei}  ron :)
[09:25] {Threei}  lol
[09:27] {thomcbell} think Con Air
[09:28] {dino} real$, reports french regulator will inform banks that a 70-75% write down on greek debt
[09:30] {Threei}  and they call it haircut
[09:30] {Threei}  I am still favoring "beheading" more
[09:30] {dino} give it until march is my guess
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .80 breaj
[09:31] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:31] {Threei}  on watch still
[09:32] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .30 break
[09:32] {Threei}  half lot
[09:32] {Threei}  if stays above .15
[09:33] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .90 break
[09:33] {Threei}  if stays under 43 of course
[09:34] {Threei}  LVS unobtainable unless you took it aggressively
[09:34] {Threei}  in which case you have 1:1
[09:35] {Threei}  FCX invalidated twice over
[09:37] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .55 break
[09:37] {Threei}  if stays under .65
[09:38] {Threei}  1:1
[09:38] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .20 break
[09:38] {Threei}  IF STAYS UNDER .30
[09:38] {Threei}  sorry caps
[09:40] {Threei}  FCX entry is close
[09:40] {Threei}  need last bounce
[09:41] {dino} chk l .76
[09:41] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .20 break
[09:42] {Threei}  same setup, if stays under .30
[09:42] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:44] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .80 break
[09:44] {Threei}  if stays under .90
[09:44] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:46] {Threei}  valid again
[09:47] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:48] {ese} ahhhhhh got through
[09:48] {Threei}  morning ese
[09:48] {ese} morning
[09:48] {Threei}  day off for you eh
[09:49] {ese} lots of snow out your end vad?
[09:49] {ese} yup
[09:49] {dino} got booted
[09:49] {dino} out chk .88, +.12
[09:49] {Threei}  not much but but enough to keep inside
[09:49] {Threei}  FCX 1:1
[09:50] {Threei}  LVS 1:1
[09:50] {Threei}  LVS scalpers win
[09:50] {Threei}  SPY strenght resumes...
[09:51] {Threei}  FCX scalpers win too
[09:53] {Threei}  what the deuce
[09:54] {Threei}  (GR) Institute of International Finance (IIF) schedules a news conference for Jan 24- IIF sees potential developments in the Euro Zone in the next few days
[09:55] {Threei}  thid is the great news market spikes on?
[09:56] {Threei} Short Setup: PM  .45 break
[09:56] {Threei}  if stays under .55
[09:56] {Threei}  LVS just had to rinse the balance, didn't it
[09:58] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  .70 break
[09:59] {Threei}  if stays above .65 for scalpers, .60 day traders
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) JAN NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX: 25 V 22E
[10:01] {Threei}  PM invalidated
[10:01] {swill} going to go for a drive.
[10:01] {Threei}  RIMM stop to .64 for day traders too
[10:01] {Threei}  don't swill
[10:01] {swill} lol
[10:02] {swill} the show must go on
[10:02] {Threei}  the show or the snow?
[10:02] {swill} lol
[10:02] {dino} bas sm l .25
[10:04] {dino} something doesn't feel right
[10:05] {Threei}  don't get me started
[10:05] {Threei}  oh you mean just a stock... :)
[10:06] {cipher} +.13 bas thx dino
[10:07] {RonS} +.14 bas thanks dino
[10:07] {Threei}  wtg
[10:07] {stewy} PM still considered?
[10:08] {Threei}  not sure
[10:11] {dino} bas to .55
[10:12] {dino} gj ron, cipher
[10:12] {dino} out bas .58, +.33
[10:12] {dino} stt, pnc
[10:12] {cipher} want to short it around .70
[10:12] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .80 break
[10:13] {Threei}  stop under .75
[10:13] {Threei}  very tight
[10:13] {Threei}  target .95, two partials
[10:13] {Threei}  RIMM finally 1:1 for day traders
[10:14] {Threei}  took its sweet time
[10:14] {cipher} bas s .68
[10:15] {cipher} cov .59 +.09
[10:16] {cipher} too soon
[10:16] {dino} gj
[10:18] {RonS} ese...gap above...PHH - Kyle Bass files 13G 7.9%
[10:19] {ese} tks ron
[10:20] {dino} phh sm s .45
[10:21] {Threei}  RIMM 1:2, over and out
[10:21] {Threei}  LVS first partial out
[10:21] {dino} stt db?
[10:21] {Threei}  stop to .70
[10:21] {cipher} +.17 phh thx dino
[10:21] {Threei}  doesn't look right to me, STT
[10:22] {Threei}  feels like one more whoosh
[10:22] {dino} ty
[10:22] {cipher} out lvs .90 thx vad
[10:23] {Threei}  :)
[10:25] {Threei}  LVS target hit, out
[10:26] {dino} phh stop
[10:26] {ese} phh......
[10:26] {Threei}  a bit like pulling teeth today but eventually things work
[10:26] {ese} nice spot there ron
[10:27] {dino} pnc sm l .90
[10:27] {Threei}  here comes STT
[10:27] {cipher} phh s .05
[10:29] {Threei}  LVS had more in it
[10:29] {thomcbell} qcom 57.57 break
[10:29] {thomcbell} short
[10:29] {cipher} cov phh .90 +.15
[10:30] {cipher} nail biter
[10:31] {dino} gj
[10:31] {ese} nice one cipher
[10:31] {cipher} opps had leftover shares... cov @ 82 +.23
[10:32] {cipher} thx ese
[10:38] {dino} cphd drop
[10:40] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .50 break
[10:40] {Threei}  if stays above .40
[10:48] {dino}  tdg drop
[10:52] {dino} fcx s .60
[10:53] {dino} pnc to flat
[10:55] {Threei}  DMND
[10:55] {ese} ron may have given me my one chance at makin some dough and i blew it.......the 1min pattern of PHH at around 10:20 is a classic money maker and i haven't found another one like it this morning.........sheesh
[10:55] {Threei}  rumors about investor taking large stake
[10:56] {Threei}  The EU has recommended that similar systems to 'black boxes' from airplanes be installed in new vehicles
[10:56] {Threei}  sheesh
[10:57] {dino} wtf
[10:57] {Threei}  bycicles shouldn't be forgotten either
[10:57] {ese} what the H for......man.....like theres enough manpower to check them out.......
[10:58] {ese} Heard this morning on cbc that there were 24,000 car acidents here in bc last year of various sorts
[10:58] {rambler} they'll be black boxing our brains soon enough....
[10:58] {stewy} for some, it already is a black box
[10:58] {Threei}  Brains?? Never!! Wait... what's this ticking sound behind my right ear...
[10:59] {dino} adtn spike
[10:59] {rambler} run for the hills, boys.....
[10:59] {ese} lol
[10:59] {Threei}  must... invest... in... govt... bonds...
[10:59] {ese} good one vad
[11:01] {Threei} Long Setup:  RRR  .95 break
[11:02] {Threei}  if stays above .90
[11:02] {dino} fcx stop
[11:03] {thomcbell} tough big number vad?
[11:03] {Threei}  20?
[11:03] {Threei}  should blow right through it
[11:03] {thomcbell} y
[11:04] {Threei} Long Setup:  JPM  .10 break
[11:04] {Threei}  if stays above 36 of course
[11:05] {Threei}  wait... RRR is buyout
[11:05] {Threei}  scratch it
[11:06] {dino} adtn sm s .75
[11:12] {dino} qcor drop
[11:13] {Threei}  JPM 1:1
[11:13] {dino} gj
[11:13] {Threei}  ty
[11:13] {Threei}  they take patience today but work
[11:13] {rambler} nice one V...
[11:14] {Beau} thx Vad
[11:14] {Threei}  welcome guys
[11:14] {stewy} yes, thx
[11:15] {dino} adtn bstop to .40
[11:16] {dino} cov +.34
[11:16] {RonS} gj...wanted short .95 missed by 2 cents...adtn
[11:18] {dino} ty
[11:19] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .65 break
[11:19] {Threei}  if stays above .55
[11:19] {ese} ron ....you catch my earlier post.......you may have been my only chance to make money today withPHH.....and I blew it......I'll never doubt you again
[11:20] {ese} gime a second chance......
[11:20] {Threei}  {Ron} too late... doubt me once, I kill you
[11:20] {ese} lol
[11:20] {Threei}  doubt me twice - hmm, I guess you are a zombie...
[11:21] {Threei}  FAZ target 1:2
[11:22] {Threei}  SPY loss of 130 should make it work
[11:22] {dino} cphd sm l .96
[11:24] {Threei}  no worky
[11:25] {dino} qcor pulp today, all over
[11:27] {Threei}  ConocoPhillips CEO: US oil imports could fall by 50% by 2025 due to increasing production from North American shale oil
[11:27] {Threei}  - Keystone Pipeline will be essential to US economy.
[11:27] {dino} qcor gap fill
[11:30] {Threei}  FAZ rinse... grrr
[11:33] {dino} adtn spike
[11:35] {Threei}  *(DE) EGAN JONES DOWNGRADES GERMANY RATING
[11:37] {Threei}  couldn't you do that while we had FAZ open, egan??
[11:37] {Threei}  cr*p
[11:38] {dino} whr sm s .19
[11:46] {Threei} Short Setup: JPM  36 break
[11:46] {Threei}  if stays under .10
[11:47] {dino} whr stop -.19
[11:48] {dino} trp drop
[11:50] {RonS} O announcing pipe ban
[11:50] {dino} sm l .01
[11:51] {Threei}  where?
[11:52] {Threei}  (US) President Obama considering naming former advisor Larry Summers, State Dept's Hillary Clinton to head the World Bank following a Zoellick nomination
[11:52] {Threei}  - Note: Summers earlier in Obama's tenure left the economic advisor position to the administration to go back to Harvard
[11:53] {dino} yeah, he did so well at previous job
[11:53] {Threei}  no kidding
[11:53] {Threei}  Obama administration expected to announce rejection of Keystone pipeline this afternoon
[11:53] {Threei}  wow, really
[11:53] {RonS} However the administration will allow TransCanada to reapply after it develops an alternate route through the sensitive habitat of Nebraska’s Sandhills
[11:54] {dino} and then he will reject it again
[11:55] {RonS} from a washington post article on the matter...
[11:55] {Threei}  http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/2012/01/18/gIQAwoVE8P_story.html
[11:55] {RonS} ...after the election it gets built either way...
[11:58] {Threei}  let's trail JPM to .06
[12:04] {Threei}  out
[12:08] {ese} l JASO .06
[12:09] {dino} out trp .39, +.38
[12:10] {ese} vad is one of your screens a 3 day high or 2 day high.....
[12:10] {Threei}  2
[12:10] {ese} i recall something like that
[12:11] {Threei}  rta://NewAlertWindow/?O=10_19_0&MaxRPD=120&MaxSpread=10&MinRPD=90&MinVol=200000&WN=2-DaysBreak
[12:11] {Threei}  same on short side
[12:11] {Threei}  rta://NewAlertWindow/?O=20_19_0&MaxRPD=10&MaxSpread=10&MinRPD=-20&MinVol=200000&WN=2-DaysBreak+Dn
[12:12] {ese} tks
[12:12] {ese} is that max spread 10 cents
[12:12] {Threei}  yes
[12:13] {Threei}  fresh alert from that window WFR
[12:13] {ese} stop to break even jaso
[12:14] {Threei}  see how it approaches 2 day's high break?
[12:14] {ese} just checking now
[12:14] {Threei}  AU now
[12:14] {ese} yes.......
[12:15] {ese} you can get it before it makes the break
[12:16] {ese} so when it reaches 90% of the previous days high it triggers?
[12:17] {Threei}  right
[12:18] {ese} gotcha
[12:18] {RonS} got trp .10 to .60  +.50  thanks dino
[12:18] {ese} nice one ron
[12:23] {ese} go jaso...stop to .08 with the number of shs i got
[12:25] {ese} ahhhhhhh  hmmmmmm out 1/2 .11 +.05 2 1/2 K to go
[12:27] {ese} stop to .10 jaso
[12:28] {dino} gj ron
[12:28] {RonS} thanks guys
[12:29] {stewy} take care ron
[12:30] {ese} stoped jaso .10 +.04 2 1/2 K
[12:30] {stewy} thanks vad done while I'm ahead
[12:30] {dino} cya stew
[12:30] {Threei}  take care stewy
[12:30] {ese} later stew
[12:46] {dino} out cphd .14, +.18
[12:56] {dino} adtn sm s .99
[13:00] {thomcbell} slw 31.53 break VAD?
[13:01] {thomcbell} or too fast getting here?
[13:01] {Threei}  I am afraid it will take forever for it to move to any meaningful profits
[13:01] {Threei}  narrow and slow market
[13:04] {dino} strange, europe is falling apart but this market just goes up
[13:08] {Threei}  one of the biggest disconnects with reality I've seen
[13:09] {dino} adtn stop -.08
[13:09] {Threei}  but really, the collapse of EU became so obvious that the trade became overcrowded
[13:19] {ese} hmmmmm  didn't realise i didn't post being L jaso at .11
[13:22] {dino} whr s .99
[13:27] {dino} grpn spike
[13:30] {dino} gpi spike
[13:32] {dino} stop whr -.03
[13:49] {ese} have to ery handy on days like thesetake my son over to a friends....cya later......lLand Rover Discovery comes in v
[13:49] {ese} goofy message
[13:49] {Threei}  hmmm
[13:49] {Threei}  went through some kind of security scrambler, looks like {G}
[13:50] {rambler} no drinking and driving ese...
[13:50] {Threei}  no drinking and typing in this case
[13:50] {rambler} lol
[13:55] {cipher} l ibm .33
[14:00] {cipher} stopped .24 -.09
[14:07] {cipher} freakin rinsed
[14:25] {dino} phh s .80
[14:51] {dino} ew spike
[14:51] {dino} vsm s .63
[14:53] {Threei}  wow
[14:53] {Threei}  White House said to be rejecting Keystone pipeline as recourse for prior gamesmanship by Republicans - financial press
[14:53] {Threei}  seriosuly?
[14:53] {Threei}  to the heck with jobs and oil supply security, gotta get back at those repubicans?
[14:54] {dino} bunch of kids
[14:56] {RonS} the chicago way...freakin thugs...if the unions had any cajones they would come out fro the reublicans
[15:00] {dino} cov ew .93, +.70
[15:00] {rambler} beauty Dino...
[15:00] {dino} ty
[15:00] {Threei}  nice
[15:01] {RonS} wow...and i was looking for vsm...gj
[15:01] {rambler} that's my usual trick Ron...
[15:01] {dino} lol
[15:01] {dino} vsm=300
[15:06] {dino} ew spike again
[15:11] {dino} phh stop -.20
[15:23] {dino} c&h ew?
[15:23] {Threei}  as much as possible with this volatility
[15:23] {Threei}  .50 is trigger
[15:23] {Threei}  but the stop is, mama
[15:24] {Threei}  I don't know how much you can rely on formations made by stocks that move 30 cents in one gasp :)
[15:25] {dino} odd thought break of high would launch it
[15:26] {Threei}  it still may - it's just that any natural pullback is so gut-wrenching when it's THAT volatile
[15:29] {dino} lower highs
[15:30] {dino} vsm s .05
[15:31] {dino} bstop is .35
[15:33] {Threei}  market ceased activity for almost whole day... look at intraday chart, dead as a doornail in stale cake in the middle of desert
[15:33] {dino} stop
[15:36] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  31 break
[15:36] {Threei}  if stays above .90
[15:39] {Threei}  BAC reports after close, and it's not likely to be pretty
[15:39] {Threei}  one would think FAZ should start pricing it in now
[15:45] {Threei}  well?
06[15:46] * Threei looks at FAZ with reproachful question in the eyes
06[15:48] * Threei changes eyes expression to patient expectation
[15:52] {dino}  ew sm s .44
[15:53] {Threei}  ok FAZ, you have 3 minutes
[15:54] {Threei}  2
[15:54] {dino} stop -.06
[15:55] {dino} calling it a day
[15:55] {Threei}  1
[15:55] {JK13} see you tomorrow everyone
[15:55] {rambler} cya Dino, JK...
[15:55] {Threei}  ok, I am out
[15:55] {Threei}  not worth it
[15:56] {Threei}  incredibly boring day
[15:56] {Threei}  have a good evening guys, see you tomorrow
[15:56] {rambler} is this a January thing...?
[15:56] {Threei}  not really
[15:56] {Threei}  it's rather EU uncertainty
[15:57] {Threei}  lack of willingness to commit
[15:57] {rambler} c u in the a.m....
[15:57] {rambler} go shovel the driveway....
[15:57] {Threei}  I'll wait for it to melt
[15:58] {_quotesmart} can you answer question about MIRC - I can connect - but no chat shows up
[15:58] {_quotesmart} any suggestions?
[15:58] {Threei}  you used instructions on the website?
[15:59] {_quotesmart} yeah
[15:59] {Threei}  there should be a step with joining the channels
[15:59] {Threei}  #discussions anf #floor
[15:59] {Threei}  as soon as you join them, you are good
[16:00] {_quotesmart} when i connect - it says at bottom (*now talking in #floor)
[16:00] {_quotesmart} but I never see any of your posts show up
[16:01] {Threei}  what about #discussions?
[16:01] {_quotesmart} i think i only added #floor
[16:01] {_quotesmart} do you need both?
[16:01] {Threei}  can you talk on #floor?
[16:02] {Threei}  try to type in there
[16:02] {_quotesmart} i just typed in testing
[16:02] {Threei}  and it let you?
[16:02] {_quotesmart} yeah
[16:02] {Threei}  then you are not on our server...
[16:03] {Threei}  you can't talk in our #floor, only read
[16:03] {Threei}  that's why there are no messages
[16:03] {_quotesmart} I might have to go thru config again
[16:03] {Threei}   think so

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Jan 17 2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html ) 


Honest day of profits - good setups most of which worked nicely, while stops were few and well-controlled. 



Session Time: Tue Jan 17 00:00:00 2012
[09:06] {Threei}  OK... I give up... I admit, it's a morning of a new week and we do have to wake up and start working
[09:07] {swill} ok, I'll get to work
[09:07] {Threei}  ty... I don't feel alone anymore
[09:09] {stewy} morning Vad 
[09:09] {Threei}  stewy :)
[09:10] {stewy} tanned, rested and ready. et tu?
[09:11] {Threei}  all that, minus tanned part...
[09:15] {JK13} gm everyone
[09:15] {Threei}  jk :)
[09:16] {Threei}  just as I thought winter was over, firast snowflakes appeared
[09:16] {swill} any pics of snow?
[09:16] {JK13} Are you enjoying it?
[09:16] {Threei}  no and no
[09:17] {Threei}  after 10 years in Winnipeg, I could do another 30 years without seeing any snow and not missing it one bit
[09:17] {JK13} Was beautiful yesterday 
[09:17] {Threei}  not here
[09:18] {Threei}  very thin, rather ugly
[09:18] {Threei}  metls fast, so it's mostly dirt
[09:18] {swill} perhaps global warming will help
[09:18] {Threei}  west part of Greater Victoria has real snow... Sooke
[09:19] {Beau} good morning you all.  76 in SE Texas today
[09:19] {Threei}  hi Beau... I am taking next flight
[09:20] {Beau} have to put up with eating lots of shrimp and gumbo
[09:20] {Threei}  shrimp, no probem
[09:20] {rambler} good morning...
[09:21] {Threei}  rambler :)
[09:21] {Threei}  so guys, how creepy is that: our best play on Fri was short CCL
[09:21] {Threei}  signal from the future?
[09:22] {rambler} lol...that is a good one
[09:22] {Threei}  anyone seen that stock almanach dropping from thr flying car on their driveway?
[09:24] {JK13} FCX short in the morning was great too
[09:24] {Threei}  worked fine, yes... just doesn't have this Back to the Future connotation :)
[09:25] {Threei}  CCL climbed about dollar and half from the morning low
[09:26] {Threei}  will keep it on a radar, not sure about the direction yet
[09:26] {Threei}  FCX, want to find short into spike
[09:26] {Threei}  as always first play on FCX is half lot
[09:30] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .10 break
[09:31] {Threei}  if stays under .20
[09:32] {Threei}  (EU) Netherlands Fin Min de Jager: unlikely that Germany or the Netherlands would increase their guarantees for the EFSF [after S&P sovereign downgrades of France, Austria, and the EFSF
[09:32] {Threei}  FCX, that's why you don't use market orders on entry
[09:32] {Threei}  wait for second chance instead
[09:33] {Threei}  in
[09:33] {Threei}  stop above .20
[09:34] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:35] {Threei}  1:1
[09:36] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .30 break
[09:36] {Threei}  half lot
[09:37] {Threei}  if stays under .50
[09:37] {Threei}  .40, sorry
[09:37] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:37] {Threei}  FCX 1:2, out
[09:37] {ese} morning
[09:38] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:38] {rambler} gj on FCX Vad...
[09:38] {Threei}  ty
[09:38] {Threei}  old fsithful
[09:39] {Threei}  almost ATM
[09:39] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .75 break
[09:40] {Threei}  stop above .85
[09:41] {Threei}  (EU) EU's Van Rompuy acknowledges S&P rating action on European nations
[09:41] {Threei}  lol
[09:41] {Threei}  and if he didn't?
[09:41] {Threei}  SLW stop to .81
[09:42] {Threei}  not very confident in it here
[09:43] {Threei} Short Setup: CCL  .70 break
[09:43] {Threei}  half ,lot
[09:43] {Threei}  if stays under .85
[09:43] {Threei}  out SLW
[09:43] {JohnH} can't short CCL
[09:44] {Threei}  had this feeling that we better cover it t ,67 but discipline won
[09:45] {rambler} missed...
[09:45] {cipher} ccl 1:1 ?
[09:46] {Threei}  I think so
[09:46] {Threei}  tough read
[09:46] {cipher} yeah
[09:46] {Threei}  1:1
[09:46] {Threei}  out
[09:47] {cipher} out thx
[09:47] {dino} cov ccl .53, +.16 ty vad
[09:48] {Threei}  welcome
[09:48] {Threei}  had more in it
[09:48] {Threei}  oh well
[09:48] {dino} bummer
[09:49] {Threei} Long Setup:  RCL  .70 break
[09:50] {Threei}  if stays above .60
[09:50] {pragmatic} also looks like double top
[09:51] {Threei}  invalidated, but on radar
[09:53] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .50 break
[09:54] {Threei}  if stays above .40
[09:54] {Threei}  target .75
[09:56] {Threei}  see this nice juicy resistance at .60?
[09:57] {Threei}  LVS is very anxious to break it and trap shorts by sharp spike... unless SPY kills the play
[09:58] {dino} rcl l .61 stop .49
[09:58] {Threei} Long Setup:  RCL  .65 break
[09:58] {Threei}  if stays above .50
[10:00] {Threei}  perfect moment for SPY to bounce and help both our longs
[10:01] {Threei}  hmmm
[10:01] {Threei}  vhanged its mind
[10:01] {Threei}  LVS is very resilient but it can swim against the current just for so long
[10:02] {dino} stop
[10:02] {Threei}  RCL no go
[10:04] {Threei}  it's time LVS
[10:04] {Threei}  break that wall
[10:04] {dino} rinsed
[10:05] {Threei}  SPY is much weaker than you'd expect
[10:05] {RonS} kgc sm l .52
[10:05] {Threei}  ugh RCL
[10:05] {Threei}  that was very indecent of you
[10:06] {Threei}  especially considering that I chose you as my Alaska cruise line xouple years ago
[10:07] {dino} dmnd sm l .75
[10:10] {cipher} +.25 dmnd thx dino
[10:10] {dino} gj
[10:10] {Threei}  time to dino LVS stop a bit - let's trail it to .44
[10:10] {Threei}  wtg
[10:10] {Threei}  1:1
[10:10] {Threei}  good boy LVS
[10:11] {Threei}  now take that .60 and explode
[10:11] {dino} 07 all red
[10:11] {Threei}  here we go
[10:12] {Threei}  salmon at its best
[10:12] {Threei}  give us 10 cents more and we will leave you alone
[10:12] {Threei}  5
[10:12] {Threei}  1:2
[10:14] {Beau} thx vad
[10:14] {Threei}  stop .55 for ther last part
[10:14] {Threei}  welcome sir
[10:14] {dino} gj
[10:15] {rambler} out...tks Vad...
[10:15] {Threei}  :)
[10:15] {dino} fcx s .70
[10:19] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .50 break
[10:19] {Threei}  if stays abiove .40 (as if it were not obvious)
[10:20] {Threei}  should be good for 1:2
[10:21] {Threei}  bit if you are a scalper in your heart, by all means ignore me
[10:23] {dino} fcx stop -.11
[10:24] {Threei}  no go TZA
[10:30] {Threei} Short Setup: BG  .20 break half lot
[10:32] {swill} I'm away for a while.  good luck
[10:32] {Threei}  ok... we will be here
[10:32] {Threei}  drive carefully, will ya
[10:32] {Threei}  there IS snow on the roads
[10:33] {ese} be safe swill
[10:33] {swill} thanks guys
[10:33] {RonS} TIF is spiking on takeover chatter
[10:34] {Threei}  (DE) German Economy Minister Roesler: no risk that Germany will lose its AAA sovereign rating; Germany does not plan to increase contribution to EFSF [after S&P downgrade of France, Austria, and EFSF rating]
[10:34] {Threei}  - EFSF auction today shows the markets still support the EFSF even after the S&P downgrade.
[10:36] {cipher} tza l .41
[10:36] {dino} fcx s .80
[10:40] {Threei}  cipher, I like the play but I'd trail stop to .35 here
[10:40] {cipher} ok thx
[10:41] {Threei}  lower BB came to that level to support, and TZA tested .40 from above couple times... so, time to choke the stop a bit
[10:42] {Threei}  need SPY to lose .80 to make this one work
[10:43] {Threei}  let's see if violence helps
06[10:43] * Threei hits SPY over the hed with 2x4
[10:43] {dino} kors spike
[10:44] {Threei}  both of them?
[10:44] {Threei}  never mind, wrong window
[10:44] {dino} chtr spike
[10:47] {Threei}  finallly
[10:48] {Threei}  I almost started doubting the effectiveness of violence
[10:48] {JK13} :)
[10:48] {cipher} thx vad for the 2x4
[10:49] {Threei}  always... my pleasure
[10:49] {rambler} teamwork...lol
[10:49] {Threei}  need nemo's expetise in that too
[10:50] {cipher} out 1/2 tza .59 +.18
[10:50] {Threei}  beautiful
[10:50] {Threei}  wtg
[10:50] {dino} chtr sm s .80
[10:53] {Threei}  mama mia... look at UNG daily
[10:54] {Threei}  believe it or not, BG is still valid
[10:57] {dino} fcx stop -.06
[10:57] {cipher} tza stopped second 1/2 +.09
[10:59] {dino} gj
[11:03] {Threei}  looking at UNG, can't help but think... will we have natural gas for free if this continues?
[11:06] {dino} claiming they make $ at 3 on marcellus
[11:06] {RonS} rimm pop
[11:07] {Threei}  no news yet
[11:07] {Threei}  nother round of takeover rumors I bet
[11:07] {Threei}  (GR) Institute of International Finance (IIF) reiterates commitment to reaching a voluntary debt agreement with the Greece Govt in latest negotiations
[11:07] {Threei}  lol
[11:08] {dino} chtr to .60
[11:08] {Threei}  give me all you have voluntarily or I'll take it by force
[11:08] {Threei}  RIMM Ticks higher on circulating of tech blog speculating on options for the company
[11:08] {Threei}  there you go
[11:09] {dino} greece says why not take $ when we only have to give back 1/2
[11:09] {Threei}  http://www.bgr.com/2012/01/17/research-in-motion-pushing-for-sale-to-samsung/
[11:09] {JohnH} wow, blogs have power, watch out Vad
[11:10] {dino} cov chtr +.20
[11:10] {Threei}  no kidding
[11:10] {rambler} gj Dino...
[11:10] {Threei}  who could argue with that when we witness the power of wisdom squeezed in 140 symbols
[11:11] {dino} ty
[11:11] {Threei}  and if I sound like a cranky curmudgeon, that's because I am one
[11:13] {Threei}  BG 1:1
[11:17] {thomcbell} vad qcom double top radar 
[11:17] {thomcbell} 57.57 trigger 
[11:17] {Threei}  not sure...
[11:18] {Threei}  I see what you mean chart wise
[11:18] {Threei}  but the SPY doesn't look conducive to short here
[11:18] {dino} sina sm s .97ave
[11:19] {thomcbell} invalidated
[11:19] {thomcbell} still on radar 
[11:19] {thomcbell} big move for this beast
[11:26] {RonS} RRD sm l .20
[11:26] {JohnH} now qcom looks like a short
[11:26] {Threei}  just wanted to say that
[11:26] {Threei}  good eye
[11:27] {dino}  cov sina .57, +.40
[11:27] {RonS} gj
[11:27] {dino} ty
[11:28] {Threei}  nice
[11:28] {Threei}  QCOM recross of .60 is a short trigger
[11:31] {Threei}  nah
[11:33] {RonS} 3i, what are you BB settings again please?
[11:34] {Threei}  intraday 13/1.7
[11:34] {Threei}  daily 20/2
[11:34] {dino} csh sm l .24
[11:37] {RonS} thanks
[11:45] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  43 break
[11:48] {JohnH} w/BB that tight could go either way?
[11:48] {Threei}  BBs tightening signals sharp moving coming
[11:48] {Threei}  direction is not really a BB department
[11:49] {JohnH} right, but both ways possible.
[11:49] {Threei}  generally, yes
[11:50] {Threei}  whether this particular one can be used as a two=sided setup, not sure
[11:50] {Threei}  43 is a very pronounced support
[11:50] {JohnH} ok, thanks
[11:50] {Threei}  I am a big fan of shorting those
[11:51] {JohnH} long base=long implosion
[11:51] {Threei}  they usually give instant gratification
[11:51] {Threei}  and I am a big fan of that :)
[11:52] {thomcbell} disgusting really
[11:52] {thomcbell} shameful
[11:52] {Threei}  I know
[11:53] {Threei}  I am fighting it
[11:53] {Threei}  but losing the fight time and again
[11:59] {RonS} out RRD .45 +.25
[11:59] {Threei}  wtg
[11:59] {dino} gj
[12:00] {RonS} ty
[12:02] {Threei}  FCX is valid
[12:08] {ese} am outta here all......been on the phone all morning to Ottawa......My R&B band will be there from the 13th to 19th of Feb.....cya tomorrow
[12:08] {dino} cya
[12:09] {ese} later dino
[12:09] {rambler} cya ese....
[12:09] {Threei}  take care ese
[12:17] {RonS} csh sm l .10
[12:25] {dino} arql sm s .27
[12:28] {dino} csh stop -.25
[12:34] {dino} syna sm s .83
[12:38] {swill} back in the saddle.  roads as you said
[12:38] {Threei}  slushy?
[12:38] {swill} in some places yes
[12:42] {dino} cvv sm s .89
[12:44] {RonS} out csh .02 -.08
[12:53] {swill} vad, would fcx qualify as double top?
[12:53] {Threei}  not reslly... very loose chart, jellyfish
[12:54] {swill} ah. like the roads
[12:54] {Threei}  lol
[12:55] {swill} snow makeing a good showing hear now
[12:55] {dino} sleet here
[12:56] {Threei}  robins go crazy in front of my window
[12:56] {Threei}  let me grab a camera
[12:58] {swill} i put out some seed for the swollows 
[13:01] {dino} don't you meen swillows
[13:02] {swill} clever
[13:03] {swill} i'll have a swillo for the swollows
[13:03] {dino} lol
[13:03] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/bAvJA
[13:03] {dino} wfm spike
[13:04] {dino} csh rinsed
[13:05] {JK13} cute
[13:06] {JK13} cute picture
[13:06] {Threei}  unneccessary elaboration - didn't think you meant me :)
[13:07] {JK13} you where not in there
[13:07] {swill} i see you cought that robin in the act
[13:08] {Threei}  that's a good thing jk... to save any photo I better remain on this side of the viewfinder :)
[13:09] {JK13} :) not necesary
[13:13] {dino} wfm?
[13:13] {Threei}  no news
[13:13] {_quotesmart} can you explain your risk/reward .. 1:1, 1:2, etc - do you always have the initial stop at .10?
[13:14] {Threei}  not necessary, sometimes it's different, depends on a chart
[13:14] {Threei}  watch for the comment: if stays above or below certain level
[13:14] {Threei}  ie:
[13:15] {Threei}  buy break of .20 if stays above .10 means stop will be located under .10
[13:15] {Threei}  http://www.realitytrader.com/tradingroom/, scroll down to: How trading room operates
[13:16] {_quotesmart} ok - sometimes you don't have that level though - like FCX - so where would initial stop be for that one?
[13:16] {Threei}  if most of them are 10 cents, hat's becausxe I try to pick the charts that match this width of stop
[13:16] {dino} syna stop -.13
[13:17] {Threei}  if I skip the mention, that's mostly because it's very obvious, or because of a senile moment
[13:17] {Threei}  in any case, don't hesitate to ask :)
[13:18] {Threei}  with 43 break, .10 wad the level for adtop or invalidation
[13:18] {Threei}  got invalidated at 12:08
[13:19] {_quotesmart} so it was invalidated when price went above 43.10?
[13:20] {Threei}  correct
[13:20] {_quotesmart} thanks
[13:20] {Threei}  sure thing
[13:21] {dino} rcl l .50
[13:21] {Threei}  we have plenty of materials on the free side of the site,
[13:21] {Threei}  take advantage of them
[13:22] {Threei}  http://www.realitytrader.com/freelessons.html and http://blog.realitytrader.com/2011/10/blog-summary-updated.html
[13:30] {dino} wpi drop
[13:30] {Threei} Short Setup: WCN  .10 break
[13:31] {Threei}  if stays under .20
[13:37] {dino} cov cvv .59, +.30
[13:39] {dino} rcl to .67
[13:41] {dino} to .70
[13:42] {dino} out .72, +.22 rcl
[13:43] {RonS} gj
[13:43] {dino} ty
[13:43] {Threei}  thanks for taking revenge on RCL
[13:44] {dino} thing pissed my off in the a.m. rinsed and ran
[13:44] {Threei}  ditto
[13:47] {dino} cov arql .90, +.37
[13:48] {dino} wpi vsm l .35
[13:52] {swill} going out in the slay
[13:54] {_quotesmart} is there a feature in this chatroom - where sound is made when you enter a trade setup?
[13:54] {Threei}  not via mibbit... in MIRC you can configure sound alert
[13:55] {_quotesmart} ok - thanks - will look into MIRC
[13:57] {dino} wpi to b/e
[13:58] {dino} out .75, +.40
[13:58] {Threei}  wtg
[13:58] {dino} ty
[13:59] {Threei}  let's trail WCN stop to .15
[14:00] {dino} brb
[14:14] {dino}  wow wpi drops more
[14:19] {Threei}  South Carolina: #Romney 35%, #Gingrich 21%, #Santorum 16%, #Paul 16%.
[14:19] {Threei}  it's over, let's move to general election
[14:26] {Threei}  sraeli hackers shut down UAE, Saudi Arabia stock exchange sites
[14:27] {dino} ?
[14:32] {stewy} holy cow
[14:36] {Threei}  I don't see news for this drop
[14:36] {Threei}  unless it's Hungary concerns about not getting aid
[14:38] {dino} hungry for aid
[14:41] {Threei}  as far as bad puns go, this is bad even by my palrty standards, lol
[14:42] {Threei}  grrr... BP... was thinking of short, decided against it
[15:00] {rambler} gotta run...thx for ideas...cya in the a.m....
[15:01] {Threei}  take care rambler
[15:07] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .75 break
[15:07] {Threei}  if stays above .65
[15:09] {Threei}  1:1
[15:09] {Threei}  nice and easy
[15:09] {Threei}  just as we like it
[15:10] {Threei}  1:2, out
[15:10] {dino} s/p going for gap
[15:10] {Threei}  11:52] {thomcbell} disgusting really
[15:10] {Threei}  [11:52] {thomcbell} shameful
[15:10] {Threei}  color me ashamed
[15:10] {Threei}  again
[15:11] {stewy} that was worth waitin all day for... ty!
[15:11] {Threei}  welcome sir
[15:12] {stewy} finally, some proper partialling management
[15:12] {Threei}  embodiment of easy money - no single downtick since triggering
[15:18] {dino} gotta hop, thx all, decent day, appreciate the ideas
[15:18] {Threei}  take care dino
[15:19] {dino} will do
[15:20] {stewy} bye dino 
[15:23] {Threei}  wow... the difference in conditions between areas separated by 20 min driving on the island can be mind-boggling
[15:24] {Threei}  clear and nice hear, but the ballet school wife should have been playing for later today phoned and said, everything's canceled, heavy snow
[15:24] {Threei}  hear = here
[15:37] {JK13} thank you Vad for everything, have a nice evening everyone
[15:37] {Threei}  take care JK
[15:49] {Threei}  ok guys
[15:49] {Threei}  thank you all
[15:49] {Threei}  have a great evening
[15:49] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:49] {stewy} thanks Vad. a good day.  
[15:50] {stewy} good night everyone.
[15:50] {Threei}  :)

Friday, January 13, 2012

Market Week Wrap-up

- Global equity markets made modest gains this week, despite news flow that was not particularly positive. S&P finally downgraded a number of euro zone member nations on Friday, although France's sovereign rating was only cut one notch, from AAA to AA+. Markets reacted calmly, given that the moves had been telegraphed for weeks and were largely priced in. There were more signs that Europe could experience a 'technical recession' in the first half of 2012, with dire forecasts for initial GDP data seen in many parts of Europe, and even Germany expected to barely show growth this year. Both the ECB and BoE kept policy on hold in rate decisions this week, as expected. In the US, Alcoa opened earnings season on Tuesday with weak quarterly results, while JPMorgan's report indicated that earnings from the other big banks may be less than stellar. There was little in the way of consequential US economic data. The preliminary January University of Michigan Confidence index was better than expected and hit its highest level since May 2011. The Fed Beige Book report was mildly positive, noting that the economy is growing at a moderate pace, with consumer demand and business loan demand rising slightly in some markets. Spot gold continued to regain territory lost in the final weeks of 2011, closing out the week near a one-month high, around $1,638. After several weeks of Iranian saber rattling, the White House was said to have informed Iran via channels that any move to close the Strait of Hormuz would be met with force. Meanwhile Europe was reportedly planning to delay its embargo on Iranian petroleum by several months to reduce any potential oil shock. Crude closed the week below $99, well off the highs seen earlier this month. For the week the DJIA gained 0.5%, the NASDAQ rose 1.4%, and the S&P 500 tacked on 0.9%.

- Investors got their first view of the state of the US financial industry in the final quarter of 2011 with JPMorgan's Q4 results on Friday. The bank met profit expectations, although reported profit was down about 23% on a y/y basis. Revenue was a bit below par. Equity market and investment banking revenue fell sharply, boding ill for the other large US banks. On the positive side, the bank highlighted the strong growth in loan demand. Note that the company's DVA (debit-valuation-adjustments) shaved around a dime off of earnings (recall that last quarter it added nearly 30 cents to the bottom line). On the conference call, CEO Dimon said that investment banking and trading revenue is volatile by nature and should bounce back. He also said that even as the bank sees growth in all credit categories, JPMorgan is getting "killed in mortgages."

- Alcoa's Q4 miss was right in line with expectations, and revenue was a bit above par. According to the company, aluminum demand grew 10% in 2011 on top of 13% growth seen in 2010. Alcoa warned that growing demand for aluminum and production cutbacks will result in a global aluminum industry deficit of 600K metric tons in 2012, which is ironic given the firm said it would cut 12% of its capacity just last week. Schnitzer Steel's Q1 results came in at the top end of its guidance, beating expectations only slightly. The company warned that heightened global macroeconomic concerns, stemming primarily from the European debt crisis, resulted in a significant slowdown in customer buying patterns, followed by a sharp decline in sale prices. Lennar's Q4 top-line revenue was stronger than expected and its new home orders were up nicely over year-ago levels. In addition, Lennar's backlog was up 35% y/y. Lennar executive said they have seen the housing market start to stabilize, driven by a combination of low home prices and low interest rates.

- Both Chevron and Marathon warned investors that crude price moves in the quarter would negatively impact earnings. Chevron warned that its earnings in Q4 would be significantly lower on a sequential basis, with downstream earnings around breakeven. Marathon said it expects a small EPS loss in the quarter, well below consensus expectations. The company said its results were being hurt by the rapid increase in the price of WTI crude. WTI went from $79.20 on Sept. 30th to $98.83 on Dec. 30th, wiping out the firm's profits.

- FX traders returned to the market on Monday pondering whether the extremely bearish euro sentiment that dominated trading in the prior week wasn't somewhat overdone. CFTC data showed that euro short positions were at record highs, with EUR/USD at 16-month lows and EUR/JPY at 12-year lows. Comments from Fitch about the European sovereign situation also helped the euro -- Fitch Sovereign Director Parker said that France is "not a crisis country" and that he did not expect to downgrade the country in 2012. After the ECB rate decision, central bank president Draghi did his bit to foster confidence, noting that the ECB was seeing signs of economic stabilization at "lower levels" and praised EMU member states for ambitious fiscal policies. Draghi addressed critics of the ECB's new three-year LTRO head on, asserting that the policy has been effective and insisting that funds from operation were not just being salted away in ECB deposits but were circulating in the real economy. By Friday, however, S&P's European downgrades shattered the temporary sense of calm.

- Markets are beginning to realize that Europe's economy could very well sink back into recession in 2012, thanks to the endless debt crisis, ever more austerity and political chaos. On Monday, a survey of 14 bank economists stated that Germany was already in recession, and a few days later the German Stats Office disclosed that Q4 German GDP would be down 0.25%. The Spanish Economy Minister commented mid week that Spanish GDP would contract in both Q1 and Q4 (in late December, the Bank of Spain confirmed that Spain's Q4 GDP contracted). Three leading European institutes (the INSEE, IFO and the ISAE) published a joint report that forecasted a "short recession" in the euro zone.

- The Swiss Franc was firmer against the major pairs following news of Swiss National Bank President Hildebrand's resignation in the wake of an FX trading scandal involving his wife. Following Hildebrand stepping down, EUR/CHF tested its lowest level since the SNB floor was enacted back in early September 2010. In farewell remarks, Hildebrand once again reiterated that the SNB would defend the EUR/CHF floor at 1.2000 with utmost determination.

- Economic data out of China continued to paint a bleak picture, prompting more speculation about the timing of the next PBoC policy move. December trade data saw a surplus of $16.5B which was double the consensus, but the increase was primarily the result of the slowing import component, which fell to a 27-month low (+11.8% y/y). China's latest inflation data was similarly downbeat, as CPI fell for the 5th consecutive month to a 15-month low of +4.1%. For the year, CPI was reported at 5.4% -- well above 3.3% in 2010 and 4.0% official target. Q4 FX reserves at $3.18T was perhaps the most telling data as it marked the first decline since 1998, when the Asian region was mired in a deep financial crisis. While the PBoC deferred its typical Friday policy move, central bank officials acknowledged deterioration in economic data justifying some easing in the future. PBoC advisor Li Daokui said the data give the government room to adjust policy to more growth-oriented stance, and the director of PBoC research bureau warned the financial crisis could last another 2-3 years.



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