Feb 08 2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  

Another solid day with fair number of winning trades and few tight stops.


Session Time: Wed Feb 08 00:00:00 2012
[08:55] {Threei}  Yesterday afternoon, there were press reports that the ECB would be willing to exchange Greek debt for EFSF bonds but would not take losses in the exchange. Under any agreement, the EFSF would return the bonds to Greece and then Greece would repay the EFSF for the price at which the fund bought the bonds from the ECB. There has been no official denial of these reports as of now.
[08:57] {nemo} Oy vay...took a sleeping pill last night
[08:58] {Threei}  and still sleeping?
[08:58] {nemo} drooling on the keyboard
[08:59] {Les} then all is normal in the world
[08:59] {Threei}  lol
[08:59] {Threei}  8% say current Congress better than names randomly picked from phone book... 43% prefer the phone book
[08:59] {Threei}  38%
[08:59] {nemo} Yeah, and unfortunately I thought up a great insult for Les, but I've forgotten in the haze
[08:59] {nemo} Oh, I just remembered
[09:00] {Threei}  let's hear it
[09:00] {nemo} I'll use it at the right time...and Vad, the janitor probably won't appreciate it
[09:00] {Threei}  ummm
[09:00] {Les} you know Vad doesn't like editing
[09:00] {Threei}  hate it passionately
[09:00] {nemo} in your case, he doesn't mind
[09:02] {nemo} oy, have to go stick my head in the toilet and flush a coupla' times
[09:04] {ese} morning
[09:04] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:05] {ese} toilet talk....drugs.......?  whats this board coming too
[09:06] {Threei}  SPY almost lost the gap
[09:07] {Les} slow grind up day?
[09:08] {Threei}  too early to tell
[09:08] {Threei}  Greece sioundbites can do a lot of damage or prop a big upward move
[09:09] {ese} finally......the RMBS NVDA could be over......they've signed a patent agreement
[09:09] {ese} scrap.....
[09:09] {MigC}  good morning
[09:09] {Threei}  Migc :)
[09:09] {ese} whats this been ....10/12 years or more
[09:10] {beau} good morning you all
[09:10] {RonS} gm...Charles Dickens turns 200 today, making him eligible to perform at next year's SuperBowl halftime. 
[09:10] {ese} lol
[09:10] {ese} good one
[09:10] {dino} gm
[09:11] {ese} D
[09:11] {Threei}  ron, dino :)
[09:11] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:11] {RonS} actually thought madonna put on the best halftime in over a decade...
[09:11] {Les} any nipple action?
[09:11] {RonS} ugh
[09:12] {Les} :P
[09:13] {Les} the only superbowl halftime thingy I've looked at
[09:16] {RonS} lol...classic...http://tinyurl.com/7ppxbv9
03[09:16] * Retrieving #discussions modes...
[09:20] {rambler} gm...
[09:20] {Threei}  rambler :)
[09:20] {_rahulprakash1} morning
[09:20] {Threei}  rahul :)
[09:20] {Threei}  my bias starts leaning to a short side
[09:21] {Les} FCX pivot resistance 46.40 watching it
[09:21] {Threei}  FCX might be not a good idea at this opening, just announced didvidend increase
[09:22] {Les} ah right
[09:23] {stewy} gd morning 
[09:23] {Threei}  stewy :)
[09:28] {Threei}  now FCX offers senior notes
[09:30] {Threei}  watching SLW
[09:30] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .40 break
[09:30] {Threei}  if stays under .50
[09:32] {Threei}  trail stop to .46
[09:33] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .85 break
[09:34] {cipher} lvs .85?
[09:34] {Threei}  stop above .75
[09:34] {Threei}  .65
[09:34] {Threei}  grrr
[09:34] {Threei}  sorry
[09:34] {cipher} np
[09:34] {Threei}  1:1... ugh
[09:34] {Threei}  SLW 1:1
[09:34] {cipher} slw makes up for your screwup :-)
[09:35] {Threei}  1:2... shoot me now
[09:35] {stewy} got slw and lvs scalp thanks
[09:35] {Threei}  LVC I mean
[09:35] {Threei}  wtg
[09:36] {Threei}  read my mind instead of my typing?
[09:36] {stewy} i knew what you meant;)
[09:36] {Threei}  :)
[09:36] {Threei}  ywah, setup was actually quite clear
[09:36] {cipher} you make me feel stupid now
[09:36] {Threei}  then how do I feel?? :)
[09:37] {Threei}  OK FCX
[09:37] {Threei}  seems to be calming down and forming something
[09:38] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .50 break
[09:39] {Threei}  if stays under .55 scalpers, .60 day traders
[09:39] {Threei}  invalidated but on radar
[09:40] {Threei}  market is quite jwerky
[09:40] {Threei}  LVS, double top forming
[09:40] {Threei}  too fast
[09:40] {Threei}  never mind for now
[09:43] {Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .20 break
[09:43] {Threei}  if stays under .25
[09:44] {Threei}  MU takeover chatter
[09:44] {Threei}  no go GDX
[09:45] {nemo} market running
[09:45] {dino} ntgr sm l .00
[09:46] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .85 break
[09:47] {Threei}  if stays under .90
[09:48] {Threei}  target around .55 if sets up
[09:48] {Les} what route u using?
[09:49] {Threei}  nasdaq
[09:49] {Threei}  ok market, roll over and die
[09:50] {cipher} +.34 ntgr thx dino
[09:50] {Threei}  first partial
[09:50] {Threei}  .76
[09:50] {dino} gj
[09:50] {cipher} gdx rinsed
[09:50] {Threei}  yeah
[09:51] {Threei}  stop .86
[09:52] {Threei}  scalpers win
[09:53] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .50 break
[09:53] {Threei}  half lot
[09:54] {Threei}  invalidatwd
[09:55] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .80 break
[09:55] {Threei}  half lot this time
[09:55] {Threei}  if stays under .90
[09:56] {Threei}  alternatively, .85 break full lot, more aggressive and more risky
[09:57] {dino} ntgr to .47
[09:57] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .70 break
[09:57] {dino} out .49, +.49
[09:57] {Threei}  wtg
[09:57] {Threei}  LVS stop above .80
[09:58] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:59] {nemo} lvs going long
[10:00] {Threei}  FCX no go
[10:00] {Threei}  doesn't look long to me, LVS
[10:00] {Threei}  SPY will decide of course
[10:01] {nemo} 1:1
[10:01] {nemo} range too tight no place for it to go down
[10:02] {nemo} adding over .80
[10:04] {Threei}  market spike
[10:04] {Threei}  GR) S&P analyst Gills: Reiterates view of an orderly default in Greece
[10:04] {Threei}  definitely reason to celebrate
[10:05] {Threei}  RIMM new takeover catter
[10:05] {dino} ugh ntgr
[10:07] {Threei}  ok LVS, time to die
[10:08] {Threei}  ugh... was watching FCX for .20 breaj short
[10:08] {Threei}  happened too fast for a reasonable trade
[10:08] {Threei}  very jerky morning
[10:08] {Threei}  LVS 1:1
[10:09] {Threei}  half out .62
[10:09] {Threei}  stop to .75
[10:09] {Threei}  scalpers be happy but we will win this time
[10:09] {dino} prgo drop
[10:10] {cipher} l ibm .60
[10:11] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .20 break half lot
[10:13] {cipher} out .67 +.07
[10:13] {Threei}  stop above .30
[10:13] {Threei}  LVS stop to .71
[10:15] {cipher} l cat .87
[10:17] {Threei}  let's trail FCX to .26
[10:19] {Threei}  FCX 1:1
[10:19] {Threei}  half out
[10:19] {Threei}  stop to .21
[10:21] {dino} ntgr sm l .90
[10:23] {dino} to .30
[10:23] {dino} out slip ave .26, +.36
[10:24] {dino} mako drop
[10:24] {cipher} prgo s .53
[10:26] {dino} mako vsm l .65
[10:27] {dino} out mako .25, +.60
[10:28] {Les} gappy little stock, nice one
[10:29] {dino} ty
[10:29] {cipher} prgo stopped -.15
[10:31] {Les} support team been teaching me some hot key usage this morn. missed that last fcx trade. nice
[10:32] {Threei}  out FCX in full
[10:32] {Thomcbell} nice Vad
[10:32] {Les} that hammer at 10:28 didn't lead you to covering all?
[10:32] {Threei}  but LVS, scalpers win again
[10:33] {Threei}  I missed it
[10:35] {cipher} ibm s .04
[10:35] {dino} crr death roll again like yesterday
[10:35] {Threei}  awwww
[10:35] {cipher} prgo s.99
[10:35] {Threei}  now LVS is at 1:2
[10:35] {dino} 07 red
[10:37] {Les} Vad how do I zoom in and out on these charts?
[10:37] {cipher} prgo -.18
[10:37] {dino} move you head closer
[10:37] {nemo} Laser, use mouse scroll wheel
[10:38] {Les} not enabled. will look into it
[10:38] {Threei}  not for me either
[10:38] {cipher} cov ibm .60 +.44
[10:38] {nemo} might be arrow keys or shift arrow keys
[10:38] {Threei}  click on chart, then click button in the upper row,
[10:38] {Threei}  one with two arrows liiking in or out
[10:38] {Threei}  for zoom in or out
[10:38] {Threei}  looking
[10:39] {Threei}  right under word Tools in menu
[10:39] {Les} gotcha ty
[10:40] {cipher} cat l .30
[10:42] {Threei}  ok
[10:42] {Threei}  long time
[10:43] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .60 break
[10:43] {Threei}  stop under .50
[10:43] {dino} 07 still red
[10:43] {Threei}  target 1:2
[10:48] {Threei}  1:1
[10:48] {Threei}  half out, stop to .59
[10:48] {Threei}  scalpers, you know...
[10:50] {cipher} cat out 1/2 .54 +.24
[10:50] {Threei}  wtg
[10:50] {Threei}  1:2
[10:50] {dino} ntgr sm l .50
[10:50] {Threei}  out FCX
[10:51] {stewy} fcx a beaut. 1;2 thx
[10:51] {Threei}  :)
[10:52] {dino} mako drop
[10:52] {cipher} out cat in full .58 +.28
[10:57] {dino} out ntgr .67, +.17
[11:00] {RonS} reaction from conf presentation:  RBC Capital says most of the physicians they spoke to showed little interest in $MAKO plasty due to high cost of RIO system and implants.
[11:01] {dino} thx
[11:02] {dino} alxn drop
[11:04] {Threei}  wow
[11:06] {Threei}  NY Fed: Purchased $1.81B in outright coupon purchase; dealers submitted $4.69B for consideration (bid to cover 2.59)- Heaviest purchase was $302M in the 02/15/41 maturity
[11:06] {Threei}  the olnly news I can attribute thios drop to
[11:08] {Threei}  speaking of chart configurations and setups... rahul, see the double bottom for the FCX long?
[11:09] {cipher} +.39 alxn thx dino
[11:09] {_mark1} k what about the double bottem
[11:10] {Threei}  FCX long call at 10:43
[11:10] {Threei}  continuing yesterday's conversation about chart configurations
[11:11] {dino} gj cipher
[11:12] {_mark1} k
[11:13] {_mark1} can u work a stock like czr?
[11:14] {Threei}  fresh IPO, huge volatility, jumping spread, very thin
[11:14] {Threei}  real question is: can you handle risk on this stock?
[11:15] {Threei}  it can move 50 cents in single bar
[11:15] {_mark1} ok nevermind then tysm small quantity yes
[11:16] {dino} ntgr sm l .05
[11:16] {dino} crr coming up on yesterdays lod
[11:17] {Thomcbell} alxn nice bounce
[11:17] {cipher} ibm l .18
[11:18] {Thomcbell} lvs hard selling
[11:18] {cipher} stoped -.22
[11:19] {Threei}  (GR) ECB is said to comment that it has not yet decided whether or not to participate in Greece debt restructuring plans - financial press
[11:19] {Threei}  ***Note that yesterday afternoon, there were press reports that the ECB would be willing to exchange Greek debt for EFSF bonds but would not take losses in the exchange. Under any agreement, the EFSF would return the bonds to Greece and then Greece would repay the EFSF for the price at which the fund bought the bonds from the ECB.
[11:27] {cipher} tna l.34
[11:33] {dino} ntgr stop -.37
[11:37] {cipher} tna stopped  -.18
[11:40] {dino} ntgr sm l .57
[11:40] {cipher} ntgr l .57
[11:41] {cipher} looks like we cleaned out the seller dino :-)
[11:41] {Threei}  lol
[11:42] {Threei}  my regret for the day:
[11:42] {Threei}  ignoring TZA long on .50 break
[11:42] {Threei}  around 11:00
[11:42] {stewy} so you were watchin it eh?
[11:42] {Threei}  yeah
[11:44] {stewy} vad, daily chart on iwm
[11:44] {stewy} is that something of an island top?
[11:45] {Threei}  I don't remember exact definition of island
[11:45] {Threei}  shouldn't the next day show a gap down, leaving that top candle alone with none other touching it?
[11:46] {Threei}  so it's would be kind of island from Lost... no one can find it {G}
[11:47] {stewy} yes, there has to be confirmation
[11:47] {stewy} with that gap down on the right side of the setup
[11:49] {Threei}  how strange this headkline must look for the most of the world:
[11:49] {Threei}  Census: Canada's growth rate leads G8, population hits 33.5 million
[11:49] {Threei}  second largest country in the world, 33.5 mln population
[11:49] {RonS} Shanghai has 40 mil...
[11:49] {Threei}  I should be able to drive for hours before seeing another human being
[11:50] {dino} lpla lod
[11:50] {RonS} lol...go to the north of the island and you can...
[11:50] {Threei}  thanks... I like my climate... :)
[11:52] {cipher} ntgr looks better now
[11:53] {cipher} to .87
[11:54] {dino} target cipher? i'm looking at .17
[11:54] {cipher} def over 39
[11:55] {dino} 1st resis 39.62
[11:55] {cipher} looks like someone's buying
[11:55] {dino} report was good, guidance good
[11:57] {dino} vwap 38.96
[12:01] {dino} ugh missed crr off yesterdays lod area
[12:02] {dino} irwd drop
[12:06] {dino} ntgr to .74 don't like the pause
[12:07] {cipher} +.25 irwd thx dino 
[12:08] {dino} gj
[12:09] {dino} you're a trading rock star lately cipher
[12:09] {cipher} lol don't jinx it
[12:09] {dino} seriously, gj
[12:10] {cipher} i couldn't do it without your great ideas
[12:10] {cipher} and vad's of course
[12:10] {dino} you book more money on my picks than i do
[12:11] {cipher} ntgr to.89
[12:11] {dino} wacking that vwap at.86
[12:12] {dino} to .87
[12:13] {cipher} scaling out here @.96 +.39
[12:13] {dino} to .97
[12:13] {Threei}  wtg
[12:13] {dino} gj
[12:13] {cipher} still have 2/3 pos left
[12:14] {dino} out .97, +.40 ntgr
[12:15] {dino} taking ten minute break
[12:16] {cipher} gj dino
[12:23] {cipher} out ntgr in full .20 +.63
[12:23] {cipher} patience paid off
[12:24] {Threei}  very nice
[12:24] {cipher} ty
[12:27] {Threei} Long Setup:  CPHD  .55 break if stays above .45
[12:27] {Threei}  half lot
[12:27] {Threei}  lunch time...
[12:31] {Threei}  change to .50 break
[12:31] {Threei}  if stays above .40
[12:39] {Threei}  no go
[12:41] {cipher} did it go below .40?
[12:41] {dino} .
[12:42] {Threei}  there were prints at .37 but I didn't watch level 2 at the time, don't know if they weren't out of bounds
[12:42] {cipher} i'm still in
[12:42] {cipher} didn't see any prints
[12:42] {Threei}  ok... maybe mine are false
[12:42] {Threei}  chart looks nice still
[12:43] {cipher} lokks good to me also
[12:44] {beau} printed 37 @11:39
[12:44] {cipher} dino don't look at ntgr
[12:46] {dino} lol, i see it, will be watchijng all day
[12:46] {dino} rnr drop
[12:50] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .75 break
[12:51] {Threei}  stop .65
[12:51] {Threei}  just a scalp
[12:52] {Threei}  cipher, dump CPHD imo
[12:52] {Threei}  should have been bouncing already if it were going to at all
[12:52] {cipher} rnr +.20
[12:53] {Threei}  and mrs?
[12:54] {cipher} not mr RNR
[12:54] {cipher} out CPHD .55
[12:54] {Threei}  sigh... I need new pair of eyes
[12:54] {cipher} here dumped it :-)
[12:54] {Threei}  good :)
[12:55] {Threei}  even if it goes eventually, it lost the right for our atention
[12:55] {cipher} gotcha
[12:57] {Threei}  grr
[12:57] {Threei}  lol
[13:24] {dino} lpla turning up
[13:42] {dino} sm l .96 ave
[13:47] {dino} lpla stuck stop to b/e
[13:51] {dino} athn spikey
[13:55] {Threei} Short Setup: GPI  55 brwak
[13:55] {Threei}  small shares
[13:55] {Threei}  if stays under .15
[13:55] {nemo} does it trade?
[13:55] {Threei}  huh?
[13:55] {nemo} joking about the volume
[13:56] {Threei}  hence the small shares remark
[13:56] {nemo} fcx
[13:56] {Threei}  target 1:2
[13:58] {Threei}  more of a daily chat play... 55 break looks ominous on it
[13:58] {dino} sncr wants open gap
[13:59] {dino} wlp  spike
[14:01] {dino} lpla stop +.04
[14:03] {dino} partial fill l ntgr .21
[14:04] {dino} crr blood
[14:10] {Threei}  (GR) Germany Deputy Fin Min Steffen: Governance in Greece has yet to be at European standards; little progress has been made on issue since 2012
[14:10] {Threei}  - Greece needs to announce the results of creditor discussions as soon as possible.
[14:10] {Threei}  - Reiterates there is no 'plan B' for Greece.
[14:10] {Threei}  - Goal is to make the offer to private creditors regarding the Greece bond swap next week.
[14:11] {Threei}  no plan B?
[14:11] {Threei}  sounds very threatening
[14:12] {dino} valu added research, wedbush raises ntgr to 40, it was 41.53 at close yesterday
[14:12] {Threei}  lol
[14:12] {Threei}  these guys need at least 15 min delayed quotes
[14:12] {Threei}  not a week ago
[14:13] {cipher} +.39 crr thx dino
[14:14] {dino} gj
[14:15] {Threei}  no go GPI
[14:17] {Threei} Long Setup:  XOM  .90 break half lot
[14:17] {Threei}  if holding above .80
[14:18] {nemo} short below .80?
[14:18] {Threei}  I doubt it
[14:19] {dino} ntgr stop -.23
[14:19] {Threei}  feels to me like it's done dropping for today
[14:19] {nemo} frickin ilmn seller at .50
[14:19] {Les} yeh XLE looks up
[14:20] {nemo} tasmanian devilophile
[14:20] {Les} bite me
[14:20] {Threei}  rofl
[14:20] {nemo} got him good with that one
[14:20] {Threei}  where the deuce thjis come from
[14:20] {nemo} coma
[14:21] {Threei}  tasmanian devil is cresture its own mother hates
[14:21] {cipher} l ntgr .00
[14:21] {Threei}  creature
[14:21] {nemo} that's why i identify with it
[14:23] {_rahulprakash1} what's original stop on XOM?
[14:24] {dino} sncr sm l trig .75
[14:25] {Threei}  14:17] {Threei} if holding above .80 rahul
[14:25] {Threei}  1:1
[14:26] {_rahulprakash1} tnx. didn't know that call invalidate level is also stop
[14:26] {Threei}  yes, this is a asingle condition
[14:26] {Threei}  for both
[14:27] {Threei}  please go to http://www.realitytrader.com/tradingroom/, scroll down to How trading room operates
[14:27] {Threei}  these basic things are in there
[14:28] {_rahulprakash1} ye i did, must have missed this one
[14:28] {nemo} takes a little while...Vad's accent is sometimes tough to understand
[14:29] {Threei}  hehe
[14:29] {dino} not to mention his typing
[14:29] {Threei}  just checked to make sure it's there
[14:29] {Threei}  my typing IS my accent, in a written form
[14:30] {cipher} ntgr stop -.10
[14:31] {cipher} +.10 sncr thx dino
[14:32] {dino} rock star
[14:34] {RonS} what exchange?
[14:35] {Les} X vad? take 31 break?
[14:36] {Les} or is this sucker going down?
[14:36] {Threei}  very much in SPY hands, but it's far from best long candidate
[14:36] {Les} ok
[14:36] {Threei}  see how it stays barely above the day's low while SPY biunced quite a bit
[14:37] {Les} yeh
[14:39] {_rahulprakash1} wasn't that the case with XOM too? what's different with xom to take that trade and not X?
[14:39] {_rahulprakash1} XOM and X charts for today on 1 min about look same
[14:40] {dino} out sncr +.25
[14:41] {Threei}  XOM had its own setup, not dependent on SPY,
[14:41] {Threei}  one I just made for a scanner to spot double bottoms
[14:42] {Threei}  1:2
[14:42] {Threei}  out
[14:43] {Threei}  think of them in terms of relative strength comparison
[14:43] {Threei}  X merely triggered while XOM is at 1:2 already
[14:44] {Threei}  both are about 1 dollar away from high,
[14:44] {Threei}  but X is 20 cents above its low
[14:45] {Threei}  while XOM is 40 cents above
[14:45] {Threei}  so, while visually their charts may be close, but XOM is relativeley stronger
[14:48] {_rahulprakash1} okies
[14:48] {_rahulprakash1} tnx
[14:48] {Threei}  sure thing
[14:48] {Threei}  1:3 one, 1:1 another
[14:48] {dino} gj
[14:49] {Threei}  (GR) Troika draft on Greece indicates Greece has agreed to lower minimum wage by 20% and cut 15K workers in 2012; as expected - financial press
[14:49] {Threei}  - Troika forecasts Greece 2012 GDP -5% vs -3% IMF and OECD forecast from December
[14:49] {Threei}  - Greece has agreed to accelerate its reforms in labor and product markets
[14:49] {Threei}  - Forecasts 2013 growth in Greece GDP vs 0.5% forecast by the OECD in November
[14:49] {Threei}  - Reaffirms plans to cut overall state workforce by 150K
[14:49] {Threei}  - Sales taxes to remain unchanged and expenditures on medicine to be cut to 1.5% of GDP from approx 2% prior
[14:49] {Threei}  - Greece agrees to privatizations of some airports, and state oil company in 2012
[14:49] {Threei}  - Note: Minimum wage and pension cuts had long been one of the sticking points of the political parties
[14:50] {dino} ntgr sm l .12
[14:50] {Threei}  ok, nice gambit Greece
[14:50] {Threei}  promise them all they want, get another round of funding, then fail to deliver
[14:51] {Threei}  why default on 150 Bln if you can get 50 more and default on 200
[14:52] {Threei}  I actually start rooting for them
[14:52] {dino} exactly
[14:53] {dino} like the iranians and north koreans, give us money, but....we lie
[14:53] {dino} just a different kind of weapon
[14:55] {Les} As Jabbah the Hut once said, "my kind of scum"
[14:56] {dino} lol
[14:58] {dino} out ntgr .35, +.23
[14:59] {Les} Vad BWLD .10? b/d?
[15:00] {Les} too late
[15:01] {Les} .06 gap to boot
[15:03] {nemo} Ireland wants concessions if Greece gets them....hehehehehee
[15:04] {Threei}  good spot Les
[15:04] {dino} ypf spike
[15:05] {Les} ditto MON short .25?^
[15:05] {dino} ok guys, gotta hop. thx all good time
[15:05] {Threei}  take care dino
[15:05] {Les} ciao
[15:05] {Threei}  yes nemo, saw that
[15:05] {cipher} cya
[15:05] {Threei}  one of aspects of contagion
[15:07] {cipher} wow ypf
[15:12] {cipher} ntgr l.03
[15:14] {Thomcbell} adm on long list tomorrow
[15:15] {Thomcbell} very solid day
[15:15] {Les} short ypf at .80 stop is clear
[15:15] {nemo} just my opinon, don't short that stock
[15:15] {cipher} i'd go long
[15:16] {cipher} but too risky
[15:16] {nemo} yeah, that's momo today
[15:16] {nemo} she's got another buck overhead before resistance
[15:18] {Les} yeh. rollover turned out to be flagging. What I should have done was hit cover in high .90's instead of waiting. Explosive break of course.
[15:19] {Les} so failed break of 36 might have been better setup
[15:20] {nemo} yes and no, look at daily, this will test resistance before I'd think about shorting it
[15:20] {Les} ok
[15:23] {Les} shit here's the 3 min MACD crossover I should have waited for
[15:23] {nemo} now it's at support
[15:24] {Les} along with loss of 8MA in 3 min. time frame. Actually testing it
[15:25] {Les} looking forward to magoo getting back. Wanna see him in momo
[15:30] {Les} so loss of 8MA support in 3 min. with MACD negative crossover. I anticipated too early. 15 min MACD tops out too
[15:33] {Threei}  still testing, but
[15:33] {Threei}  my nw scanner window alerted db in MCP at 14:38
[15:33] {Threei}  have a look
[15:33] {Les} yeh like it
[15:34] {nemo} what does NW stand for?
[15:34] {nemo} or For what does NW stand? To be grammatically correct
[15:34] {Threei}  "new" typed with strong accent
[15:34] {Les} Vad FDX .40 b/d?
[15:35] {nemo} looks like bullflags on IWM and SPY, we should open up above 136 tomorrow
[15:35] {Threei}  I think so Les
[15:35] {Threei}  if stays under .50
[15:36] {Les} SPY spike
[15:36] {Threei} Long Setup:  SMG  .60 break half lot
[15:37] {Threei}  if stays above .50 of course
[15:38] {Threei}  target 1:2
[15:38] {nemo} God Bless the bottom pickers
[15:38] {Threei}  or, hooray to new alert window
[15:38] {Threei}  1:1
[15:38] {Threei}  half out
[15:39] {Threei}  scalpers be happy
[15:39] {nemo} that Intelliscan?
[15:39] {Threei}  yes
[15:40] {Les} clearly not for you nemo
[15:40] {stewy} thx vad got the scalp
[15:42] {Threei}  sure thing
[15:42] {Les} sOHU .90 b/d?
[15:43] {Threei}  smaaaal shares
[15:43] {Threei}  this is scary thing
[15:43] {Threei}  vary narrow right now but can be a murdered
[15:43] {Les} Nah think I'll leave that one
[15:44] {Les} might explode to the upside
[15:46] {Les} thank's for the SMG scalp. c u's tomorrow
[15:46] {Threei}  ok guys, no one wants to tarde anymore
[15:46] {Threei}  nor do I, honestly, lol
[15:46] {Threei}  if no one has any questions, let's call it a day
[15:47] {Threei}  a decent one too
[15:47] {stewy} yeah thanks
[15:47] {cipher} l ypf .77
[15:47] {beau} thx vid
[15:48] {Threei}  have a great evening, see you tomorrow
[15:48] {stewy} good night everyone
[15:48] {cipher} out 1/2 .98 +.21
[15:49] {cipher} out in full .95
[15:51] {Threei}  wtg
[15:51] {cipher} thx
[15:53] {cipher} ntgr is creeping up
[15:53] {cipher} l .10
[15:53] {stewy} cipher you nailed some today
[15:53] {cipher} out .23 +.13
[15:54] {cipher} yea good day
06[15:54] * Threei slaps cipher around a bit with a large roll of cash
[15:54] {cipher} need lots of cash, picking up a new toy today :-)
[15:54] {Threei}  do tell
[15:55] {Threei}  he who dies with most toys dies happy
[15:55] {cipher} i'll give you a hint...
[15:55] {cipher} it's not a car
[15:56] {Threei}  hmmm... that's one broad hint, lol
[15:56] {Threei}  here is how you need to do it:
[15:56] {cipher} can't make it too easy for ya
[15:56] {Threei}  what green, lives in the pond, jumps, starts with fr and ends with og?
[15:56] {cipher} lol
[15:56] {Threei}  :)
[15:57] {cipher} hint no. 2:
[15:57] {cipher} wife's not too happy about the toy
[15:57] {Threei}  hmmm
[15:57] {nemo} give her one that vibrates
[15:57] {Threei}  that could be so many things...
[15:58] {cipher} lol nemo
[15:58] {Threei}  there... nemo's fantasy is On
[15:58] {nemo} not really, just natural word association in my brain for me it would be "gun" or "incendiary
[15:58] {nemo} claymore
[15:58] {cipher} ok guys, cya tomorrow
[15:58] {Threei}  ok, congratulations with good day, see you tomorrow
[15:58] {cipher} thx
[15:59] {nemo} O
[15:59] {nemo} I'm thinking gap up again tomorrow

Feb 07 2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  

Carbon copy of yesterday - fair and somewhat boring day. Profit is profit, no complaints.


Session Time: Tue Feb 07 00:00:00 2012
[08:48] {Threei}  tough decision: open left eyes first or right...
[09:02] {Les} afternoon all
[09:02] {Threei}  Les :)
[09:04] {Les} Did I ever suggest that you should consider trading European markets Vad?
[09:04] {Threei}  no
[09:04] {Threei}  why?
[09:04] {Threei}  so I have 24 hours working day?
[09:04] {Les} a joke. Actually I did along time ago.
[09:04] {Les} yes
[09:05] {Threei}  great, that's exactly what I want
[09:05] {Threei}  just in case there are still emtpy hours, can we also add HK, Australia and NZ?
[09:06] {Les} China, definitely
[09:11] {MigC}  good morning
[09:12] {Threei}  Migc :)
[09:14] {Threei}  I think we need to keep tradition alive, and open the day with Greek headline
[09:14] {Threei}  GR) Greece PM Papademos to meet with party leaders regarding decision on fiscal rules at 14:00 ET (19:00 GMT)**Note the time being push back from the earlier speculation that it would occur at 15:00 GMT
[09:19] {ese} gm
[09:19] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:21] {beau} good morning
[09:22] {ese} b
[09:22] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:24] {Threei}  my bias oscillates from long to short whole morning
[09:24] {Threei}  still can't decide
[09:29] {rambler} gm...
[09:29] {Threei}  ,ost likely first is long
[09:29] {Threei}  rambler :)
[09:29] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .50 break
[09:29] {Threei}  half lot of course
[09:30] {Threei}  if stays above .40
[09:30] {Threei}  invalidated for now
[09:31] {Threei}  .40 break new trigger
[09:31] {Threei}  if holding .30
[09:31] {Threei}  in on pullback
[09:31] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:33] {Threei}  1:1
[09:33] {Threei}  half out, stop to .37
[09:34] {Threei}  scalpers win
[09:35] {Threei} Long Setup:  ARIA  .90 break
[09:35] {Threei}  if stays above .85
[09:37] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .70 break
[09:38] {Threei}  stop above .75 scalpers, .80 day traders
[09:38] {ese} L HGSI .92
[09:38] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .30 break
[09:39] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:39] {ese} out 1/2 .01 +.09
[09:40] {Les} nemo's a quitter
[09:40] {ese} lol
[09:40] {ese} dems fightin words neer as ah canfigur
[09:41] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .50 break
[09:41] {Threei}  .56 stop
[09:42] {nemo} bernanke speaking at 10
[09:43] {Threei}  LVS half out .440
[09:43] {Threei}  .40
[09:43] {ese} stop to b/e hgsi .03
[09:43] {Threei}  stop to .51
[09:44] {Threei}  SLW 1:1
[09:44] {Threei}  half out
[09:48] {Threei}  stop .71 of course
[09:49] {Threei}  LVS interesting battle
[09:50] {Threei}  we win so far
[09:50] {dino} mon sm l .85
[09:51] {Threei}  good boy SLW
[09:51] {Threei}  stop to .65
[09:51] {Threei}  bidding 1/4 at .50
[09:51] {Les} lvs .50 long?
[09:52] {Threei}  half lot..
[09:52] {Threei}  still have half lot short
[09:53] {Les} will work with some 100 share lots to get up and running.
[09:53] {Threei}  cool beans
[09:54] {Threei}  SLW looks weaker and weaker
[09:54] {Threei}  little market help, it sholuld die horrible deatth
[09:55] {Threei}  1:2
[09:55] {Threei}  1/4 more out, stop to .61
[09:56] {Threei}  LVS stop to .46 now
[09:56] {Threei}  1:2
[09:56] {Threei}  out
[09:57] {Threei}  aww, too soon
[09:58] {Les} fcx bounce?
[09:59] {Threei}  .75 break
[09:59] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .75 break
[09:59] {dino} .75 trg imo
[09:59] {Threei}  if stays above ,65
[09:59] {dino} bvsn drop
[09:59] {Threei}  target 1:2
[10:00] {Threei}  SLW closed
[10:01] {Threei} Short Setup: X  .55 break
[10:01] {Threei}  half lot
[10:02] {Threei}  no go FCX
[10:02] {Threei}  X, if stays under .65
[10:04] {Threei}  1:1
[10:04] {Threei}  (GR) German Chancellor Merkel believes Troika report on Greece to be ready by Thursday, Feb 9th - financial press
[10:04] {Threei}  lol
[10:06] {stewy} gd morning everyone
[10:07] {Threei}  stewy :)
[10:08] {Threei}  1:2
[10:09] {Threei}  out
[10:09] {Threei}  (GR) Greece to annnounce details of debt deal following meeting with party leaders at 1900GMT - financial press
[10:09] {Threei}  - PM Papademos to meet with IIF's Dallara before the meeting at 1630 GMT
[10:09] {Threei}  - Greece Cabinet plans meeting for tommorow to approve the loan deal
[10:23] {cipher} ibm l .72
[10:24] {_mark1} just want to let you know shld moving again
[10:24] {dino} ssys
[10:25] {_mark1} you think ssys ready for l
[10:26] {nemo} low volume
[10:26] {_mark1} well moved up in the meantime lol
[10:26] {cipher} out .81 +.08 not working
[10:28] {Les} huge offer .30 lvs
[10:31] {cipher} ssys l .07
[10:34] {dino} out mon flat
[10:35] {cipher} out .40 +.33 thx dino
[10:35] {Threei}  wtg
[10:36] {cipher} ty
[10:40] {dino} gj
[10:46] {dino} crr sm l .00 gappy
[10:46] {Les} SPY pivot resistance here
[10:47] {dino} simo sm l .80
[10:49] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  46 break
[10:49] {Threei}  if stays above .90
[10:50] {RonS} jnpr spike
[10:51] {Threei}  1:1
[10:51] {Threei}  nice and easy
[10:51] {cipher} +.20 crr thx dino
[10:52] {cipher} thx vad fcx
[10:53] {Threei}  :)
[10:53] {Threei}  my favorite kind
[10:54] {Threei}  just went to the traget with no resistanve, meekly
[10:54] {dino} simo stop -.13
[10:54] {Thomcbell} cstr 60.01 break
[10:54] {Thomcbell} half lot
[10:55] {nemo} did you get it
[10:56] {Thomcbell} 59.80 stop
[10:56] {Thomcbell} had to pay up to 60.05
[10:56] {cipher} +.19 cstr thx thomcbell
[10:56] {cipher} good one
[10:56] {nemo} should be good to .50, market looks like it's going to rip
[10:57] {cipher} i like easy money, no patience today
[10:57] {Threei}  I like easy money always
[11:00] {Thomcbell} out cstr
[11:00] {Thomcbell} only a quarter partial
[11:00] {cipher} l cstr .73
[11:01] {cipher} out .93 +.20
[11:02] {cipher} wtf happened with cstr?
[11:02] {dino} gj
[11:02] {dino} earnings
[11:02] {cipher} oh
[11:02] {Threei}  "stuff"
[11:02] {Threei}  lol
[11:02] {cipher} crazy
[11:06] {cipher} l cstr.93
[11:07] {cipher} out .19 +.26
[11:08] {Threei}  man... your trading style requires significant stock of fresh diapers
[11:08] {cipher} i like instant feedback... sitting on positions is boring
[11:09] {cipher} but diapers sometimes help :-)
[11:09] {dino} simo sm l .70
[11:14] {cipher} l ibm .03
[11:16] {cipher} out .24 +.21
[11:38] {andj} Good morning everyone...
[11:38] {Threei}  andj :)
[11:38] {andj} Threei...I started reading 111 trades last night.  It's good.
[11:39] {Threei}  :)
[11:39] {cipher} ccr l .95
[11:40] {cipher} crr
[11:42] {cipher} out .02 +.07
[11:51] {Threei}  trying to find reversal point
[11:51] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .90 break
[11:51] {Threei}  just a scalp
[11:58] {Threei}  feel free to cover here
[11:58] {Threei}  can't stand the siren song of easy money
[11:58] {cipher} i like this scalp
[11:58] {cipher} thx
[11:58] {Threei}  :)
[11:58] {Threei}  no resistance whatsoever, proceeds meekly to the target
[11:59] {stewy} nice sclap thx
[11:59] {Threei}  welcome
[12:00] {RonS} simo sm l .00
[12:13] {Thomcbell} slw 36.50 break
[12:13] {Thomcbell} short
[12:13] {Thomcbell} if holds 36.60
[12:18] {Threei}  OK, while there are no trades, I have to ask you guys this
[12:18] {Threei}  I get my tablet, ASUS transformer Prime, great thing,
[12:19] {Threei}  I need some accessories for it, particularly a protective case and mini-hdmi cable
[12:19] {Threei}  I find both on ebay,
[12:19] {Threei}  case from china, cable form US
[12:19] {Threei}  free shipping on both
[12:19] {Threei}  I buy them the same day
[12:20] {Threei}  case arrives from china in 1 week
[12:20] {Threei}  little casble from US - nowhere close
[12:20] {Threei}  how on green eart is it possible?
[12:24] {Threei} Short Setup: YUM  .70 break
[12:24] {Threei}  if stays under .80
[12:27] {RonS} out simo -.05...lol...Gridlock in NYC today giddy Wall St firms pepper the Giants with shredded incriminating documents.
[12:27] {Threei}  invalidated
[12:33] {cipher} simo blood
[12:34] {stewy} vad, does hal have makings of a c & h?
[12:36] {Threei}  too narrow for my taste
[12:37] {Threei}  formally chart figures that way
[12:37] {Threei}  but look at the cup depth
[12:37] {Threei}  handle too
[12:37] {Threei}  I am not sure there is a room for even 10 cents move
[12:37] {stewy} ok, thanks.
[12:41] {dino} simo odd, beats, raises, pops and then crashes
[12:42] {dino} gap around16.32
[12:54] {cipher} l simo .00
[12:56] {cipher} out 1/2 .19
[12:57] {RonS} gj
[12:59] {cipher} out rest .30
[13:00] {cipher} too soon
[13:19] {Threei}  (GR) Political leaders meeting in Greece pushed back to Wednesday from 1900GMT
[13:19] {Threei}  but of course
[13:20] {dino} shocking
[13:22] {Threei}  I think it's time to start taking bets on whwther it takes place tomorrow or pushes to Thu
[13:23] {Les} ADI vad u seeing a setup short here?
[13:23] {dino} monday
[13:23] {Threei} Short Setup: YUM  65 break
[13:23] {Thomcbell} that slw -
[13:24] {Threei}  for 5-7 cents scalp only, Les
[13:24] {Threei}  very narrow
[13:26] {stewy} took it right there?
[13:27] {Threei}  ?
[13:28] {Threei}  stop 65.06
[13:29] {Threei}  hah... you know how they explain the delay?
[13:29] {Threei}  cites delay in disseminating draft of agreement to the leaders
[13:29] {Threei}  so, trimming down all those jiobs left them with no couriers
[13:38] {nemo} disseminating or inseminating
[13:38] {stewy} got the yum scalp thanks
[13:39] {Threei}  cover half YUM here... unless you are a scalper with no regard for anything but the money already landed in your pocket
[13:39] {Threei}  yes, that
[13:39] {Threei}  :)
[13:39] {Threei}  once again, easy money
[13:39] {Threei}  my favorite kind...
[13:40] {Threei}  5 cens risk
[13:40] {dino} cov yum  +.10 ty vad
[13:40] {Threei}  yw
[13:43] {Les} ZNGA 13 breakdown Vad?
[13:44] {Threei}  nah
[13:44] {Threei}  I'll stay away from this
[13:44] {Les} :(
[13:44] {Les} ?
[13:44] {Threei}  narrow, slow, low volume
[13:44] {Les} ok
[13:44] {Threei}  I also doubt you can short it
[13:45] {Threei}  it's s till yuond IPO
[13:45] {Threei}  young
[13:46] {stewy} lvs breaking down
[13:47] {Threei}  YUM 1:2, me out
[13:47] {Threei}  me be finally triumphing over p[esky scalpers
[13:48] {Les} that sorta day was it?
[13:52] {Thomcbell} lvs double bottom setup Vadimir?
[13:53] {Threei}  got away
[13:53] {Threei}  too far
[13:53] {Threei}  aww, YUM 1:3
[13:53] {nemo} Whose Vladimir?
[13:54] {Thomcbell} i know - Vad
[13:54] {dino} the implaler
[13:54] {nemo} Mr Tepes to you
[13:54] {Thomcbell} trying to entertain myself
[13:54] {nemo} DON'T!!!   Set me up like that!
[13:55] {Les} have at 'im
[13:55] {nemo} I promised Vad
[13:56] {Threei}  I am amazed that prmise stopped you
[13:56] {nemo} if it were Les, that's another story
[13:57] {Les} I was gonna call Nemo a cross eyed git, but then I remembered the list...
[13:58] {nemo} what is a "git"
[13:58] {Les} http://www.thefreedictionary.com/git
[13:59] {stewy} nemo, you ever watched monty python?
[14:00] {nemo} We've spoken about Many a Monty skit here NOOB!
[14:00] {Les} what's a noob?
[14:00] {nemo} having said that, I have extensive brain damage
[14:00] {stewy} but of course
[14:00] {Les} knob I can understand... as in you're a knob!
[14:00] {nemo} Noob=newbie
[14:01] {nemo} Mmmmhhh....I kinda' am a git
[14:01] {Les} all in good fun of course, but yeh...
[14:02] {Les} I've missed being here...
[14:02] {stewy} 'holy grail' was on the telly last night...
[14:02] {stewy} hadn't seen it in years
[14:02] {nemo} I have that saved to my computer
[14:02] {nemo} are you a niggit?
[14:03] {nemo} kniggit actually
[14:03] {Les} LVS Vad. If it returns to near 51 do we look for new long entry?
[14:03] {stewy} oh no my friend
[14:03] {Threei}  yes, but watvh for it turning into inverted C&H
[14:04] {Les} ok. Daily chart says short this sucker if the setup is right
[14:04] {Threei}  true
[14:07] {cipher} s znga 00
[14:08] {cipher} cov .89 +.11
[14:12] {dino} gj
[14:13] {cipher} Les should get the credit for this one
[14:13] {cipher} thx
[14:13] {nemo} oh jeez....don't do that
[14:14] {Threei}  lol
[14:16] {dino} wlt drop
[14:16] {Les} :)
[14:18] {Threei}  local public libraries start speed-dating
[14:18] {Threei}  talk about confusion
[14:18] {nemo} Yeah, "Wanna' take a walk in the stacks?"
[14:19] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/0ofLl
[14:19] {Threei}  If you're single and age 60+, grab your favourite book and come to the library for a whirlwind of match-making conversation!
[14:19] {Les} "you can slip your digits into my book anytime big boy" :P
[14:19] {Threei}  ok,,, here is my promise:
[14:20] {Threei}  if when I am 60 I find it interesting, I shoot mysefl
[14:20] {Threei}  nemo, if I forget, would you take care of this?
[14:20] {nemo} I'll do it for ya
[14:20] {Threei}  thank you
[14:20] {Les} well cats don't count Vad
[14:20] {nemo} I'll use a shotgun and I'll have you bend over so I hit your brain first
[14:21] {Threei}  so, our prime minister is in China, selling oil
[14:21] {Threei}  that same your president turned down
[14:22] {nemo} yep
[14:27] {Les} Vad FCX .74 breakdown?
[14:27] {Threei}  I think so
[14:27] {nemo} support at .70
[14:28] {Les} I see .65
[14:29] {Les} .80 or .85 stop?
[14:30] {Threei}  .81
[14:30] {Threei}  keep it tight and safe
[14:34] {nemo} market stopped trading
[14:37] {_rahulprakash1} hello
[14:37] {nemo} namaste
[14:37] {nemo} oohh...that was out of character for me
[14:37] {_rahulprakash1} namaste ji
[14:37] {_rahulprakash1} lol
[14:38] {Threei}  hello rahul
[14:38] {_rahulprakash1} hey threei
[14:38] {_rahulprakash1} new here so thought i'd say hi :)
[14:39] {Les} wow Nemo I'm impressed
[14:39] {nemo} why?
[14:39] {Les} respect and some cultural education
[14:39] {nemo} as I said..hehehehehe
[14:39] {Threei}  welcome to the jungle, rahul
[14:39] {_rahulprakash1} ty
[14:39] {nemo} remember, one of my closest associates is an exorcist
[14:46] {Les} anyone got a 4x2 handy for FCX?
[14:48] {Threei}  yes
06[14:49] * Threei is hitting FCX over the head with 2x4
[14:49] {Threei}  1:1
[14:49] {Les} nice timing onthat hit thank you. out
[15:00] {Threei}  *(US) DEC CONSUMER CREDIT: $19.3B V $7.0BE
[15:00] {Threei}  so, mark, rahul, vijay... how do you like our asylum?
[15:02] {_rahulprakash1} its quiet with not much noise...and that's very nice :)
[15:02] {Threei}  that's only while nemo is sober...
[15:03] {_rahulprakash1} just my second day here, but most of the calls move very fast, not giving a chance for entry...at least to me
[15:03] {_rahulprakash1} and for many I can't see the patterns that are talked about in the courses and books sent to me
[15:04] {Threei}  executions is a matter of right software and practice
[15:04] {_rahulprakash1} seems that you are working at more micro level than a 1min chart like u see something on L2 & T&Sales...which i can't
[15:04] {Threei}  chart patterns - ask
[15:04] {Threei}  no, all calls are based on 1 min charts
[15:04] {_rahulprakash1} ok i will ask away
[15:05] {Threei}  latest one, FCX, .75 break - you see DBI?
[15:05] {Les} outta here. thanks all. tomorrow.
[15:05] {Threei}  take care les
[15:08] {_rahulprakash1} what time was the call, i don't see it
[15:09] {Threei}  14:27] {Les} Vad FCX .74 breakdown?
[15:09] {Threei}  [14:27] {Threei} I think so
[15:10] {_rahulprakash1} oh didnt realize it was a call...didn't have standard format. let me look at chart
[15:10] {stewy} cya les
[15:10] {Threei}  just a trade we discussed that worked out nicely
[15:11] {Threei}  Les spotted it, not me, so no official format'but he spotted same setup as we often use
[15:11] {Threei}  RIMM before that was the same
[15:11] {_rahulprakash1} yep i see the breakdown setup on that
[15:15] {beau} rimm now?
[15:17] {Threei}  not dure
[15:22] {RonS} US House Energy and Commerce panel votes 33-20 to advance plan to fast-track Keystone XL Pipeline; bill heads to full House
[15:27] {nemo} it will get vetoed at Obama's desk, and will never get through Reed's senate
[15:29] {Threei}  that's the idea
[15:29] {Threei}  it's not designed to pass
[15:29] {Threei}  it's designed to score political points
[15:30] {nemo} yeah, but it won't get any pub
[15:30] {nemo} only Fox will talk about it
[15:30] {Threei}  it will during election
[15:30] {nemo} nope
[15:30] {beau} bet it will be approved after election
[15:31] {Threei}  how do you make a contender not to make it a point during debates?
[15:31] {nemo} depends on who wins the election...plus if the Canadians have already closed a deal with the Chinese, it's dead
[15:31] {Threei}  hard to say
[15:32] {Threei}  I think Canada has a way to leave the door open
[15:32] {beau} will be but more voters will approve change in route.
[15:32] {RonS} ...would be a tough sonofagun to punch a pipeline over those mountains...
[15:33] {beau} I live at the Texas end.  Oil execs here and Houston say will be after election
[15:34] {dino} look crr, drops to 91 and bounces to 96
[15:34] {dino} lots of stocks are doing these crazy ass moves lately
[15:41] {RonS} lol...Madonna was carried into the Super Bowl by muscle-bound men, good thing, as the Patriots would have dropped her.
[15:42] {Threei}  lol
[15:45] {cipher} cat hod
[15:55] {Threei}  OK guys, thank you all
[15:55] {Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow
[15:56] {stewy} gd night vad
[15:56] {stewy} cya all tomorrow

TTN February-March 2012 Outlook

TTN February-March 2012 Outlook

A Healthy Recovery?

In the last few months we have seen some limited positive progress out of politicians who previously seemed determined to fail to the detriment of the economy. The US Congress kicked the can down the road again on tax cut extensions, while Europe has gotten closer to an orderly Greek resolution and made some decisions on how to move forward with greater integration. The ECB also bought them some more time by enacting a three year LTRO (long term refinancing operation) to ease bank funding issues, an effort that has salved sovereign markets.
The situation has also been helped by improved data in many regions, with global PMI readings picking up, the US jobs market improving, and China navigating a soft landing. Yet despite this, the outlook is still uncertain and global forecasters like those at the IMF continue to cut forecasts for 2012 and predict a double dip for Europe.

In this reality, three big unknowns will be major determining factors for the fortunes of 2012: Politics, Europe, and China. The outcomes of elections and other political battles, the ability of Europe to move toward greater integration and stability, and China continuing to skillfully harness its economy will all play into how healthy the global economy remains in the months ahead.

Europe Takes its Medicine

Concerns about a Euro Zone implosion have been minimized through a series of sometimes clumsy negotiations and imperfect bargains that have managed to pull Europe away from the edge of the abyss. A systemic failure on the order of 2008 has been averted with cheap dollar lending, promises of fiscal consolidation, and the relief provided by the ECB's LTRO.

European banks are expected to gorge themselves on the 3-year LTRO in the second round of auctions on February 29. Press reports say that many large banks are preparing to double or even triple their funding requests from the LTRO money auction, after the ECB supplied €489B in its inaugural operation in December. Some bankers are now estimating the auction will exceed €1T and could go even higher if markets should deteriorate in the next few weeks. After the success of the first auction many more banks are expected to participate in the second round as well, with the potential of stigma removed and the promise of cheap money at a tantalizing interest rate of only one percent.

The LTRO has lent some stability to the situation in Europe, which is now expected to deteriorate at a slower pace. It appears to have had a salubrious effect on European spreads as some of the cheap money has flowed into higher yielding sovereign bonds, bringing down borrowing costs for the peripheral nations (particularly in Italy where the key rate has dropped 200 basis points from its peak). Forecasters are predicting a mild recession for Europe this year as the continent limps along at a decrepit pace, having taken longer than anyone expected to agree on resolution mechanisms.

Contagion Contained?

It now seems less likely that a Greek credit event will cause a tailspin across markets this year, but the event will still have to be absorbed. Greece needs to make a €14.4B bond payment by March 20, and many analysts are now looking to this date as the start of an orderly default process for Greece. Talks with private creditors to avoid a disorderly default are nearly complete, though a second track of negotiations to trade more austerity for a second bailout package has been thornier. Greek opposition parties and unions are decrying the notion of more cuts, but barring any last minute Greek drama, it seems they have little choice but to accept. The hope is that this will immunize the Euro Zone from Greek contagion.

Europe may not be out of the woods yet, however, as troublesome symptoms have been observed in Portugal and Hungary. The Hungarians have managed to make their European partners queasy by threatening the sacrosanct independence of their central bank. This has placed an IMF loan package at risk, without which Hungary could become a new source of contagion for central Europe. In Portugal, interest rates have continued to rise, even as other peripheral nations saw yields ease. Speculation is swirling that the nation could need another €30B bailout on top of the €78B it got from the IMF/ECB/EU troika last year. This has triggered an uneasy series of statements from top EU and Portuguese officials giving assurances that it will not need a new bailout package like Greece. This sort of denials have foreshadowed each new stage during the European crisis, so they tend to have the opposite effect, screaming that Portugal may soon need to enter bailout talks. This idea that Portugal may be succumbing to the same infirmities that sent Greece to the intensive care unit is concerning because while Europe has been steeling itself for a Greek default, no such preparations have been made for Portugal, and French banks in particular may find themselves overly exposed again.

Against this tide, incremental progress is being made. The new EU treaty is set to be signed by most of the union's members (the UK and Czech Republic opted out, and others like Sweden may still get cold feet) in the next few weeks, inching the continent a step closer toward fiscal union. This milestone treaty is the point of no return for the Euro Zone as well, as more centralized power gives Germany the political will to continue with the Euro experiment, perhaps someday leading to real fiscal union and minting Eurobonds. Leaders have also recently confirmed that the ESM backstop fund will launch in July 2012, but talks are still touch and go about boosting its capacity beyond €500B.

US Getting Off its Crutches

Even as Europe struggles to right itself, economic data has been good enough in the US to be called surprisingly strong, though much of that renewed strength appears to be from the chronic adrenalin shots of stimulus. Most recently the Fed extended its low rate pledge for over a year into late 2014, set an explicit two percent inflation target, and reiterated that QE3 is ready on a hair trigger. But stimulus is like a narcotic, the more you take the less effect it has.

With US data yielding many upside surprises in the last few months and bond yields pinned to extraordinarily low levels, equities have had a great start to 2012. Volatility has dropped significantly and stocks have gained steadily as the recovery finally seems to be taking hold. Yet the surprise improvement trends could create ever greater expectations for each successive data point, requiring ever better data to drive markets higher. Thus, any stumble in the economic data could be amplified as the winter months wear on.

The vital signs of the US economy have genuinely improved in recent weeks. Non-farm Payrolls have grown for sixteen straight months and the data has shown steady improvement over the last four months, capping it off with a resounding 243K reading last month, a twenty month high. The unemployment rate has also yielded pleasant surprises the last two months, coming in below expectations and falling to a nearly three year low of 8.3% in the latest reading. Measures of growth also improved in Q4, with an improving trend in US GDP and production indices. The second reading on US Q4 GDP will be out February 29 after the advance reading showed sequential improvement but disappointed expectations, while US production data has been uneven, though the most recent ISM data (both manufacturing and non-manufacturing) had its best showing in over half a year.

With moderate economic growth, however temporary, and employment indicators showing noticeable improvement, risk appetite has improved and the VIX "fear" index has hit a seven month low. But the nascent economic recovery may not be as healthy as some prognosticators believe. One key factor will be the continuing absence of a housing recovery. The construction sector has played a significant role in past economic recovery cycles, creating construction jobs and perceived wealth as home prices appreciate. But this time around, even though there have been some sporadic positive housing readings, the housing sector is unlikely to undergird the recovery in jobs and production.

The Fed Prescribes More Tests

Old Doctor Bernanke for one is not convinced of the health of the patient. At his latest press conference, Bernanke made sure to emphasize that the Fed is not out of ammunition and laid out certain conditions that might prompt them to embark upon a third round of quantitative easing. In discussing the inflation target the Chairman also made it clear that the Fed would not accept a moderate rise in inflation as a trade off for more job creation.

The Fed has now taken significant new policy actions at three of the last five FOMC meetings, which may be unintentionally adding to the politicization of the central bank-either a hawkish or a dovish dissent has been lodged at each of the last five meetings. Indeed the latest transparency effort, the Fed's rate path forecasts, draw the battle lines more clearly than ever. In a Washington DC more partisan than any time in decades, the fed essentially revealed the weighting of hawks versus doves.

The newness of the rate path forecast may make it fashionable to lend it added weight at the next two-day meeting of the FOMC, in late April, when these predictions are revised. Any changes may garner extra attention, maybe more than deserved, as a signal that the central tendency of policy has shifted.

The Fed will introduce another shock treatment in March, when it is set to release a battery of bank stress test data. Late last year the central bank announced that the biggest 31 US banks would undergo their severest stress testing to date in an effort to boost confidence in the financial system. The scenarios will include a test against a European market shock for six banks with large trading operations (BoA, Citi, Goldman, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo), and the most severe parameters will include an 8 percent GDP contraction, unemployment at 13 percent, and a 52 percent stock market plunge.

This is the first US bank stress test since the spring of 2009, when the Fed used it to alleviate concerns about the viability of financial institutions after the collapse of Lehman. That test was criticized as too soft, with banks allowed to count on direct government support, and yet 10 of the 19 firms tested were still found to have inadequate capital (within half a year almost all of them had taken steps to meet required capital levels).

The new round of examinations is meant to inaugurate an annual assessment of banks creating greater transparency and confidence in the systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs). As they examine the tougher stress scenarios, banks will also have a harder time boosting their capital adequacy now that the TARP program is over and that Dodd-Frank forbids any new bailout actions. If banks that were teetering a few years ago pass this severe scenario, it may help break the fever that has been afflicting the financial industry. Alternatively should some banks fail this new test, plans for addressing capital shortfalls will need to be formulated. The banks have more than reputations on the line in these tests as the Fed has also stated that it will use the test as a basis for approving dividend increases and other capital distributions only for companies whose capital plans "demonstrate sufficient financial strength to operate as successful financial intermediaries under stressed macroeconomic and financial market scenarios."

Sick of Politics Yet?

The growing political reality of fiscal consolidation is causing uneasiness in most world capitals as government leaders rework the balance between taxes, entitlement programs, and deficit reduction. S&P cut the US sovereign rating last summer after the debt ceiling debate, citing the political impasse in Washington as the primary motivation, and the Euro Zone just went through another round of downgrades based on the execution risk for its plans for greater fiscal integration and economic recovery. Both regions have pledged budget cutbacks to varying degrees, but many of these plans could unravel or radically change in the face of looming elections.

In the US, improving data has had a bipolar effect. Each new positive data point reduces the prospects for QE3, which has been underpinning markets, while simultaneously improving the President's chances of reelection, to the chagrin of big business. Obama, who not long ago seemed destined to be a one term president, has also gotten a shot in the arm from the GOP's contest to find a standard bearer.

Republicans have struggled to find a viable Presidential contender, and the four still remaining show no signs of stepping aside to allow a single challenger to emerge. After winning Florida with a media blitz, Mitt Romney is again the front runner and he has been trying to shift his focus to the general election and President Obama, but his stubborn Republican rivals have made life difficult. Though Gingrich, Santorum, and Paul have boasted they have the staying power to go all the way to the Republican convention in August, Romney's fortunes may rise in the next month or two. After two dozen debates that the less well funded challengers used as free advertising, the GOP debate schedule features only one such forum in the month of February (2/22). Advantage Romney. Also in his favor, Romney won five of the six February Primaries in 2008, and a similar showing could position him to all but wrap up the nomination on March 6, Super Tuesday, when a slew of key states will hold their primaries. Thus the President Obama's opponent may not be known until March or later, and then the real mud-slinging can begin. The longer the GOP process drags on and drains the coffers of the eventual challenger, the more likely Obama will get a leg up on re-election.

In the White House, Mr. Obama will have his hands full as the Executive butts heads with the other two branches of the federal government in the weeks ahead. Another skirmish with House Republicans is likely as they maneuver for leverage on the payroll tax cut extensions. A two month compromise deal put a ceasefire in place at the end of last year, but terms of a deal that will extend the tax cuts through the end of 2012 must be hammered out in the next few weeks. Given the antics seen in Washington last year, more political gamesmanship is likely to ensue.

Meanwhile the US Supreme Court is set to review the centerpiece of Obama's domestic agenda, the healthcare mandate that has been labeled "Obamacare." The high court has set an unusual three-day session (March 26-28) to hear oral arguments on the issue and this summer will render a decision that will impact the course of the election.

The political scene in Europe may be even more intractable. Between all of the high level emergency meetings to lay plans for treaty changes and chart the future of Europe, what is missing is the consent of the governed. Discontent with European leaders has shown clearly in elections this year. With the ouster of Greek PM Papandreou and Italian PM Berlusconi in November, seven of the 17 EMU nations have now forced out or voted out their governments within the last year. Elections are also looming large for the core Euro Zone states, with French elections set for April and May of 2012 and German federal polls coming up in 2013. Discontent in the electorate has been visible, especially evident in German regional elections last year that punished Merkel's party for betting ever larger pools of German money on holding the EMU together. Opinion polls show that French President Sarkozy is currently trailing well behind the Socialist candidate Franois Hollande, and if his lead holds it could shake up the balance of power at the center of the Euro Zone. Though he has pledged to keep France on a path of fiscal responsibility, Hollande is also running on a platform affirming a commitment to the public sector which could conflict with austerity promises. It would also be a blow to Merkel who has relied on her partnership with Sarkozy to power through some of the more dicey moments of the Euro Zone crisis.

Tiger Balm

The third plank of potential uncertainty is maybe the most straightforward and non-complex. The Asian economic miracle, centered squarely in China, has been an engine for global economic growth and recovery for the last decade as the People's Republic rises to take its place as the world's number two economy. Chinese central planners have so far managed to walk the path between overheating the economy and stifling booming growth with well timed stimulus and policy braking actions.

Inflation was the bugaboo of China in 2011 and threatened to clip its real growth rate to uncomfortably low levels. But after running hot at over six percent for several months last year, China CPI has ebbed to 4.1 percent in the latest reading, a 15-month low. China's PPI has subsided at an even greater pace, easing the grip of inflation. Meanwhile Chinese growth has slowed over much of the last year, no longer scorching double digit returns, but still maintaining a healthy pace in the high single digits. China can only benefit the global economy if these trends hold up, but should they reverse again dramatically an Asian flu could rapidly infect world markets.

One potential bright spot in Asia could be Japan as it gets back on its feet after the tsunami disaster nearly one year ago. Supply chains have been restored and the rebuilding of the disaster zone is seen as a potential economic boon, though the new taxes to be put toward that effort could curtail GDP. A surprise growth spurt from Japan this year could take some of the pressure off of China to continue propping up global economic growth on its own.

As the US and Europe prepare for election season, China faces its own limited form of regime change this year as President Hu Jintao begins the transition process of turning over power to his presumed successor Xi Jinping after ten years in leadership. Mr. Xi's politics are still not entirely clear, but many observers hope that as the representative of a new generation of leadership he will continue the economic reforms of his predecessor and may even be more open to political changes. In any case, managing China's economic ascent while tending to the maturing needs of an increasingly affluent and economically dynamic population will be a challenging task for the incoming leader. Thus Mr. Xi will be under ever increasing scrutiny in the months ahead as he takes over the post of General Secretary this fall, and then President next year.

Politics will have an outsized impact on energy markets too in the next few months as Europe moves toward an embargo of Iranian oil by mid-year. This latest round of sanctions targeted at the Iranian nuclear program could decimate Iran's economy, and has provoked Iran into threatening to preemptively cut off its supply to Europe to cause reciprocal economic damage. If Tehran follows through on this threat or disrupts traffic in the Straight of Hormuz, energy prices could spike which could stunt the nascent recovery seen in some Western economies.

Lately there have also been rumblings that Israel may decide unilaterally that the time for negotiations is over. With Iran estimated to be a year away from potential nuclear weapons capability, the Israelis may see this as the last chance to cripple Tehran's nuclear ambitions with a military strike before the weapons program gains so much momentum that it becomes unstoppable. Israel successfully destroyed a secret Syrian nuclear facility in September 2007 with astonishingly little political fallout, and now ironically Syria may be adding to the case for a pre-emptive strike in Iran. Syria is the biggest client state under Iran's influence, but with the government in Damascus being challenged by a year-long uprising, Iran would have little ability to counterstrike against Israel through its proxy state now in turmoil and under international scrutiny. The Iranian government has made a show of strength, with fleet maneuvers in the Straight of Hormuz and demonstrating its ballistics expertise with a recent satellite launch, but those will likely do little to deter Israel if it senses an existential threat.

To Your Health

The old market adage says that, as January goes, so goes the year. If this bears out, the steady rise in equities during the opening weeks of 2012 sets a favorable tone for the rest of the year. The "hope" trade that generated a stock market rebound late last year was legitimized by some recent data points that suggest the economy is seeing a turnaround, especially in the US. Still many skeptics are not convinced that the volatile days are all behind us. Even if the Greek situation is contained with a bond swap and second bailout agreement, the odds are that Greece will undergo an orderly default and eventually slip out of the Euro Zone. While banks' direct exposure to Greek has been largely shed or hedged, there could still be significant fallout from a default event, particularly the risk that the dominoes could start falling again, starting with Portugal.

Another rule of thumb is that the first five weeks sets one extreme, the high or the low, for the EUR/USD for the rest of the year. That criterion would suggest that either the low has been set for the year at 1.26, or the high has been put in at 1.32. The latter scenario seems the likelier outcome for a year where Europe is going to fall back into recession and has yet to allay all of the concerns about the future of the unified continent.

China started this two month stretch on vacation for the Lunar New Year, with some celebrations lasting through the first week of February. The Dragon is said to be one of the most prosperous signs of the Chinese zodiac, and perhaps that bodes well for the Chinese leadership as they continue their brand of "command capitalism." If inflation remains in check, energy prices stay stable, and solid growth continues uninterrupted, this part of the world should pose few surprises this season. The Asian economic situation bears watching but remains in a better state than the US or Europe.

Questions continue to mount for the western economies as they must pay the piper for years of excess and free handed stimulus. The ECB has found a backdoor stabilization plan in the form of the LTRO. Balance sheets in European capitals will be improved by austerity plans, but those same plans will be a drag on economic growth for an indefinite period. The EU has a framework agreement for enhanced integration but extraordinary execution risks remain. Meanwhile, the Fed deliberates teeing up yet another round of quantitative easing and US politicians haven't even been able to define austerity as they gamble the health of the nation on the upcoming election, rather than considering real compromise. The Supreme Court deliberations over "Obamacare" may become an apt symbol of the partisan politics afflicting Washington, as the conservative leaning court may strike down the mandate that was passed two years ago in a bitter partisan vote. The lackluster economy, crimped in part by uncertainty over the costs of the healthcare overhaul, will be the ultimate determining factor in the US. If the economy stumbles again it could lead to a change in the Administration and trigger QE3. But if the economic recovery continues President Obama can be assured of a second term though quantitative easing will be off the table. Pick your poison.



CALENDAR

Feb 8: China CPI and PPI
Feb 9: ECB policy decision
Feb 15: European GDP data; FOMC minutes
Feb 17: German Ifo Business Climate
Feb 20-21: European finance ministers meetings
Feb 22: Europe PMI readings
Feb 25-26: G20 finance ministers meeting
February 29: ECB's 2nd LTRO money auction; US Prelim Q4 GDP (2nd reading)
March 1: US ISM Manufacturing PMI
March 1-2 - Summit of EU heads of state and government in Brussels
March 5: US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
March 6: "Super Tuesday" (9 GOP primaries)
March 8: ECB policy decision; China CPI and PPI
March 9: US payrolls and unemployment
March 12-13: European finance ministers meetings
March 13: FOMC policy decision
March 16: Europe PMI readings
March 20: €14.4B in Greek bond mature
March 26: German Ifo Business Climate
March 26-28: US Supreme Court hears "Obamacare" arguments
March 29: US Final Q4 GDP
April 1: China Manufacturing PMI
April 2: US ISM Manufacturing PMI
April 4: ECB policy statement, FOMC minutes, US ISM Non- Manufacturing PMI
April 9: China CPI and PPI, China GDP


TradeTheNews

Feb 06 2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html   


Solid and fair day, with stops tightly controlled and profitable trades ranging from scalps to 1:3.



Session Time: Mon Feb 06 00:00:00 2012
[09:02] {Threei}  OK...
[09:02] {Threei}  nowhere to go but to the work...
[09:06] {MigC}  good morning
[09:06] {Threei}  Migc :)
[09:07] {dino} gm
[09:07] {Threei}  oh, in case you haven't guessed yet:
[09:07] {Threei}  ?(GR) Greek political party leader meeting with PM Papademos said to be delayed until Tuesday, Feb 7th
[09:07] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:07] {dino} saw that, the delays continue
[09:08] {Threei}  Now, here comes the part where irony meets tragedy:
[09:08] {Threei}  Earlier reports indicated that the Greek leadership were close to agreeing to an average 20% cut in minimum wage, bonus payments look to be untouched
[09:08] {Threei}  burger-flippers get 20% cut, elite has binuses untouched
[09:09] {Les} and all is normal with the world...
[09:09] {Threei}  yup
[09:09] {Les} morning
[09:09] {Threei}  "whatever your normal is"?
[09:10] {Les} well I don't see my bonus...
[09:10] {Threei}  you European may not get it, it's a line from popular commercial here in NA
[09:10] {Threei}  :)
[09:10] {Les} oh ok
[09:10] {Les} ZNGA, what price premarket?
[09:11] {Threei}  13.25
[09:11] {Les} merci
[09:11] {Threei}  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YEHQP2qU6I
[09:11] {Threei}  last line
[09:13] {rambler} morning
[09:14] {Threei}  rambler :)
[09:14] {RonS} gm...qotd from joe fahmy:  NY Giants Upgraded to Outperform at 5 firms this morning...once again, the analysts are always late
[09:15] {Threei}  lol
[09:15] {Threei}  morning ron
[09:16] {ese} morning
[09:16] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:16] {ese} anyone on this board from the Ottawa area
[09:17] {ese} that would be a no I guess
[09:17] {RonS} hey ese, say jeff beck on the dtv palladia channel playing some club
[09:17] {Threei}  just about 4000 km...
[09:17] {Les} wait ese, just looking ottawa up on a map
[09:17] {beau} good morning you all
[09:17] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:17] {ese} lol
[09:18] {Threei}  lol les
[09:18] {RonS} him, his daughter on bass i would guess, and a drummer that was exremely fluid
[09:18] {RonS} beck has definitely moved to my top three of all guitar players...
[09:19] {RonS} hendrix, stevie ray there also...
[09:19] {stewy} gd morning
[09:19] {ese} the young lady on bass was 16/18...not his daughter......Tal is her name...can't remember last name
[09:20] {Threei}  stewy :)
[09:20] {ese} was that the show from London with Vinnie Coliuta on Drums
[09:20] {Threei}  no clear feel for the direction yet
[09:21] {Threei}  market acts on the latest headline
[09:21] {RonS} beck was faughning (sis?) over her so thought it had to be his daughter
[09:21] {RonS} sic
[09:21] {nemo} Tal something
[09:21] {Threei}  and with Greece moment of truth approaching, not many seem to willing to bet too heavily
[09:21] {nemo} Tal Wilkenfeld
[09:21] {ese} ya....can't remember her last name
[09:22] {ese} thank you
[09:22] {ese} amazing talent
[09:23] {nemo} nice Jewish Australian girl
[09:24] {ese} yup
[09:24] {RonS} ha!...The Greek Deadline for this assignment is Tuesday - so hand it in on Thursday, or never. Whatever."
[09:28] {Threei}  LVS, waiting for a long entry
[09:28] {Threei}  FCX, most likely short
[09:28] {Threei}  no clear triggers yet
[09:28] {stewy} is your primary cue for lvs this close in premkt activity?
[09:29] {Threei}  rather it's amazing strenght last week
[09:29] {stewy} ok
[09:29] {Threei}  given any chance, it should try and retest the high
[09:30] {Threei}  and with market finding strenght, make new one
[09:30] {Threei}  first trades are half lot
[09:33] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  46 break
[09:33] {Threei}  if stays under .10
[09:34] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .60 break
[09:34] {Threei}  if stays above .50
[09:35] {Threei}  LVS invalidated, looking for another entrey
[09:35] {Threei}  FCX target 1:2 if got it
[09:35] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .50 break
[09:36] {Threei}  if stays above .40
[09:36] {Threei}  FCX 1:1
[09:36] {Threei}  was very nice of it to give second chance
[09:36] {Threei}  LVS target 1:3
[09:36] {Threei}  1:1, first part out
[09:37] {Threei}  FCX, scalpers win
[09:37] {Threei}  stop to .44 LVS
[09:38] {Threei}  to .49 now
[09:38] {Threei}  1:2
[09:38] {Threei}  1:3 target hit
[09:39] {Threei}  my a$$ is out
[09:39] {stewy} wow nice
[09:39] {stewy} don't go home yet
[09:39] {Threei}  no??
[09:40] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .30 break
[09:40] {Threei}  if stays under .35
[09:41] {Threei}  scalping stop but not scalping target
[09:41] {Threei}  if works, aiming for .10 or so
[09:42] {Threei}  FCX, .10 break was worth long eh
[09:42] {Thomcbell} lvs lovely Vad
[09:42] {Threei}  nicely looking setup, I just was hesitant about its morning volatil,ity
[09:42] {Threei}  ty
[09:43] {Threei}  SLW, first partial around .20
[09:44] {Threei}  no go
[09:46] {Threei} Short Setup: SKX  .70 break
[09:46] {Threei}  if stays under .80
[09:47] {Threei}  LVS
[09:47] {Threei} Long Setup:  KVS  52 break
[09:47] {Threei}  if holding .90
[09:48] {Threei}  LVS of course
[09:48] {Threei}  sorry
[09:48] {dino} unh sm l .25
[09:48] {Threei}  fat fingers
[09:49] {Threei}  1:1, but good luck getting a fill
[09:49] {Threei}  unless you were in before the break, no chance
[09:50] {Threei}  [09:29] {Threei} given any chance, it should try and retest the high
[09:50] {Threei}  [09:30] {Threei} and with market finding strenght, make new one
[09:50] {Threei}  plays out the scenario to the t
[09:50] {stewy} vg
[09:52] {Threei}  SKX invalidated
[09:53] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .20 break
[09:53] {Threei}  if SPY drops fast, take it aggressively
[09:56] {dino} out unh -.10
[09:56] {Threei}  ugh... just needed to recalibrate SKX to .80
[09:57] {Threei}  FCX stop to .26
[09:57] {Threei}  SPY sudden bout of enthusiasm
[09:59] {Thomcbell} now it looks more interesting if it breaks 46.14
[10:00] {Threei}  out
[10:00] {Threei} Long Setup:  RCL  .60 break
[10:01] {Threei}  if stays above .50
[10:01] {Thomcbell} gdx beast
[10:01] {Threei}  market wants new highs
[10:02] {Thomcbell} auy 17.04 break
[10:02] {Thomcbell} if holds 16.96
[10:03] {dino} ew sm l .78 ave
[10:03] {nemo} lotta' jerking around this morning
[10:04] {Les} CVX 105 break interest ya?
[10:04] {Threei}  yes
[10:04] {Threei}  looks very nice
[10:10] {Les} SPY respects 5 dma and pivot 134.31 resistance
[10:10] {Les} for now
[10:10] {Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .40 break
[10:10] {RonS} mon blood
[10:11] {Threei}  if stays under .50
[10:11] {Threei}  80 break was a beautful setop on MON, didn't see it at the time
[10:11] {Les} POT might follow MON. Interesting here
[10:12] {Threei}  GDX 1:1
[10:13] {dino} mon sm l .90
[10:14] {dino} hum blood
[10:15] {cipher} hum good one dino thx
[10:15] {dino} hum bearts and raises?
[10:16] {Threei}  no, lowers guidance
[10:17] {Threei}  - Guides Q1 $1.35-1.45 v $1.81e. - Adjusts FY12 guidance to $7.50-7.70 v $7.99e
[10:17] {dino} raised i see
[10:18] {dino} ok
[10:18] {Threei}  (PT) Portugal is said to have denied earlier reports that it had hired advisors to study a debt restructuring plan - financial press
[10:18] {Threei}  ***Note that on Feb 4th, Lazard declines comment on speculation it has been hired by Portugal's government. On Feb 4th, it was reported that Portugal was said to have "sounded out" advisers in relation to options to restructure its debt.
[10:18] {Threei}  now tat it's officially denied, we know it's true
[10:19] {Les} die POT
[10:20] {Les} stood there thinking about ZNGA 9:48 .60 b/d. I ain't gonna think twice
[10:21] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .45 break
[10:24] {dino} ew to .15
[10:24] {dino} to .22
[10:25] {Threei}  can't tell whether it's a scalp or capable of more
[10:25] {Threei}  presonal decision
[10:25] {dino} out .18,
[10:25] {dino} +.40
[10:25] {Threei}  wtg
[10:25] {cipher} wtg
[10:26] {dino} ty
[10:27] {Les} CVX took its time
[10:30] {Thomcbell} nxpi 21.89 break if holds 21.77
[10:33] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  52 break
[10:33] {Threei}  if stays under .05
[10:34] {Threei}  target 1:3, 1:4
[10:35] {Threei}  first partial here
[10:35] {Threei}  .02
[10:35] {Threei}  stop to .01
[10:37] {Threei}  feel free to cover in full
[10:37] {Threei}  easy smooth trade
[10:38] {stewy} yes got 1;2 thx
[10:38] {Threei}  yw
[10:38] {cipher} LVS nice vad thx
[10:39] {Threei}  :)
[10:39] {Les} yeh that was nicely done. just before what looks like market going to sleep.
[10:40] {Threei}  I sense we may get less sleep today than usually
[10:40] {Les} sellers market?
[10:40] {_mark1} nice call on lvs
[10:40] {Threei}  ty
[10:41] {Threei}  sellers market - as in bull or bear market?
[10:41] {Les} no. thinking of selling accellerating
[10:41] {Les} towards EoD
[10:41] {Threei}  unclear terminology to me... in housing, "sellers market" refers to a bull, where sellers dictate price :)
[10:41] {Les} uh sorry
[10:42] {Les} there I go, talking like a newbie again
[10:42] {Threei}  but for today yes, I feel bears take charge
[10:42] {Threei}  well, at least till next headline annoicing greece deal in 3 min
[10:42] {_mark1} did not see the full fall on lvs thought i was good taking .15 lol
[10:43] {Threei}  yeah, it went beyond expwctations
[10:43] {Threei}  wow
[10:43] {Threei}  all that for 5 cents risk?
[10:44] {stewy} cvx gd call thx took 1;2
[10:44] {Threei}  I am ready to hit myself with 2x4 over the head
[10:44] {Threei}  wtg, that was very nice chart on CVX
[10:45] {Threei}  watching LVS for bounce scalp
[10:46] {Threei}  got away
[10:50] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .60 break
[10:51] {Threei}  target about .45, stop .67
[10:53] {Threei}  (PT) Portugal PM: Current Portuguese debt load is sustainable and not similar to Greece
[10:53] {Threei}  yeah yeah
[10:54] {Threei}  the only sustainable debt on the planet is Antarctica's
[10:55] {nemo} yeah, Penguins are very thrifty
[10:55] {Threei}  and pay in hard currency
[10:56] {Threei}  no go SLW
[11:00] {_mark1} lvs bouncing higher than i though any thoughts
[11:00] {dino} sncr sm l .00
[11:04] {Threei}  market changed the tune
[11:05] {Les} what's WYNN's story? why the divergence from LVS and MGM. potential db
[11:05] {dino} missed numbers friday
[11:05] {Les} ok
[11:06] {Threei}  observing for now, no feel for the next turn
[11:06] {dino} acom blood
[11:07] {Thomcbell} nxpi boring me to tears but 1:1
[11:09] {Threei}  yawn all the way to the bank
[11:09] {RonS} wynn reported worse numbers les...
[11:09] {Les} ty
[11:10] {Les} Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker: "If we were to conclude that everything is going wrong in Greece, then there won't be any new aid program, which would mean that Greece will have to declare bankruptcy in March."
[11:10] {Les} huh, takes two to tango
[11:16] {dino} mon stop -.31
[11:17] {Threei} Short Setup: POT  .80 break
[11:17] {Threei}  if stays under .85
[11:17] {Thomcbell} cvx molto bene
[11:21] {Les} GMCR Vad - there a setup here?
[11:22] {Threei}  not sure
[11:22] {_mark1} what is your targer three
[11:22] {Threei}  it's tightening nicely, and will make a move sioon,
[11:23] {Threei}  but I can't give any preference to a direction
[11:23] {_mark1} what is the target to cover?
[11:23] {Threei}  POT? about 1:2, 1:3 if market really helps
[11:23] {dino} sncr to .51
[11:23] {nemo} it's weaving around it's vwap
[11:24] {_mark1} ok 1:2?
[11:24] {Threei}  ?
[11:24] {dino} out sncr .54, +.54
[11:25] {Threei}  wtg
[11:25] {Les} nice
[11:25] {dino} thx
[11:28] {Threei}  first partial here
[11:28] {Threei}  scalpers feel free to take profit and be happy
[11:29] {Threei}  now, you know the name iof that river in Egypt?
[11:29] {Threei}  here it is:
[11:29] {Threei}  (GR) German Chancellor Merkel: Reiterates that "we refuse to acknowledge Greek bankruptcy" as a possibility - tv interview
[11:29] {cipher} +.19 acom thx dino
[11:30] {_mark1} three nice call on pot so far dont know what chart you got it off of although so i might learn something
[11:30] {Threei}  I can just see her throwing tantrum, stomping the floor with her feet: "No!, No!, No Greece bankruptsy, no!!"
[11:30] {dino} gj cipher
[11:31] {Threei}  1:2 POT
[11:31] {Threei}  mark... off 1 min :)
[11:31] {_mark1} k i am using 15 and 4 on slow sch.
[11:32] {stewy} ok pot scalp taken thx
[11:32] {dino} i think greek bankruptcy puts lots of banks into insolvency
[11:32] {Les} but the panic run on Italy could...
[11:33] {Threei}  yeah, the threat is two-fold... fallout of default itself and contagion
[11:34] {Threei}  they'd be probably able to withstand it if it were Greece itself, isolated
[11:35] {Les} sorry dino, thought you said "I *don't* think Greek bankruptcy..."
[11:35] {dino} np
[11:36] {Threei}  POT over 1:3, get out
[11:36] {Les} It's the contagion that I fear
[11:39] {Les} I see market very close to testing SNB 1.20 CHFEUR resolve. Swiss Franc continues to be in demand from Euro holders...
[11:43] {dino} nflx
[11:43] {nemo} yeah
[11:46] {_mark1} why nflx got vol all of a sudeen
[11:46] {Threei}  news
[11:46] {Threei}  Netflix Inc Hearing recent strength attributed to circulation of industry speculation that the new Apple TV could include NFLX functionality- For more: http://www.cultofmac.com/144564/best-buy-predicts-42-inch-apple-hdtv-in-customer-survey/
[11:47] {_mark1} oh tysm
[12:02] {dino} superbowl leftovers for lunch. the big sandwich
[12:02] {Les} ah yes I remember that Simpsons episode...
[12:03] {_mark1} i think nflx going down from here any opinons?
[12:03] {dino} it's a short killer since 2012'
[12:05] {_mark1} man could have gotton quick .60 off that but no here the clucking
[12:07] {Les} The setup was there but limited to 200 shares tops for my risk control. .50 stop a bit big...
[12:07] {dino} lol
[12:08] {_mark1} was looking for about 125.14 right there but what do i know
[12:09] {Les} Difference between me here 14 months ago and now, I don't wanna hit hot stocks.
[12:09] {Les} But I do enjoy watching Magoo hit 'em hard
[12:09] {Threei}  (GR) Greece govt said to have reached a deal to trim 15K workers - world press
[12:10] {_mark1} thanks les :(
[12:10] {Threei}  15K workers: we don't think so
[12:11] {Threei} Short Setup: MON  .60 break
[12:11] {nemo} oy at lunch in a dull market
[12:11] {_mark1} anyone watching lvs think going up here?
[12:12] {dino} i was thinki8ng long mon here
[12:13] {nemo} I'm thinking of sleeping it off
[12:13] {Thomcbell} raising stop to 21.85 on nxpi
[12:13] {dino} seems i was wrong
[12:13] {RonS} depressed, eh, nemo?
[12:13] {dino} tough loss nemo'
[12:14] {_mark1} you thinking about .41 on cover three?
[12:14] {Threei}  half out MON
[12:14] {nemo} not really, objectively, and I think I said it last week, I thought it were more likely the Giants win
[12:14] {Threei}  at least
[12:14] {Threei}  will try to partial 1/4 there
[12:14] {nemo} Especially if the Gronkanator was useless
[12:14] {Threei}  stop to .62
[12:14] {nemo} Having said that, I didn't think Brady would pull some of the shit he did
[12:15] {dino} gj
[12:15] {Threei}  ty
[12:16] {Les} everyone's got their edge Mark. I've learnt mine the hard way. :)
[12:17] {_mark1} ok nobody watching lvs going up
[12:18] {Threei}  is it obligatory? :)
[12:20] {_mark1} no i know someone was trading it and just wanted to see if i see what they see?
[12:20] {Les} http://www.spiegel.de/international/bild-813662-312845.html
[12:21] {Les} the view down on the lake. F&%ç this global warming shit
[12:21] {Threei}  our approach is based on setups, mark
[12:21] {Threei}  there is setup, we are interested
[12:21] {Threei}  movement without one is not of much use for us
[12:24] {Les} Vad speaks of my first time round here Mark. Hit everything that moved. Blew myself up. But walked away with some understanding...
[12:24] {nemo} idix
[12:25] {Les} what are you? Magoo's twin?
[12:25] {Threei}  speaking of magoo... ETA if end of Feb, beginning of March
[12:26] {Threei}  if = is
[12:26] {_mark1} no on 1 minute saw on slow 15 4 crossing and on fast crossing up also
[12:26] {nemo} Les whou you accusing of being Magoo?
[12:27] {_mark1} me
[12:28] {_mark1} im ok with it, learning asking questions of what chart setup you might use so i might learn from it also
[12:32] {_mark1} cause mon looks like it wants some up right here
[12:32] {_mark1} but want to see what i am seeing wrong
[12:38] {stewy} vad did you hang on to last half of mon?
[12:39] {dino} hstm drop
[12:40] {Threei}  just out last piece
[12:40] {Threei}  a bit early
[12:40] {Threei}  covered at .30
[12:40] {Threei}  but whatever
[12:40] {Threei}  nice day is a nice day
[12:40] {_mark1} nice call
[12:40] {Threei}  sin to complain
[12:43] {dino} algt sm l .00 trgger
[12:43] {Les} missed SLB .70 break, watching 79 break
[12:46] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .70 break
[12:46] {Threei}  if stays under .75
[12:46] {Threei}  just a scalp
[12:47] {Threei}  not copunting on much here, anything under .65 is fair target to cover
[12:49] {Threei}  invalidated
[12:52] {RonS} took algt .00 to .45  thanks dino
[12:52] {dino} gj
[12:53] {Threei}  nice
[12:54] {dino} out algt .60, +.60
[12:54] {RonS} wtg
[12:55] {cipher} wtg
[12:55] {dino} ty
[12:55] {dino} opps only 100 out at .60
[12:55] {dino} there it goes
[13:05] {Les} SLB 79 break vad?
[13:06] {Les} SPY dropping though
[13:07] {Threei}  chart's right...
[13:07] {Threei}  eother market helps and it triggers, or not and it invalidates
[13:15] {Threei}  scalped?
[13:15] {Threei}  holding?
[13:15] {Threei}  partialed?
[13:15] {Threei}  fell in coma?
[13:17] {dino} pcar l .85
[13:18] {cipher} wow algt
[13:18] {dino} mhs drop
[13:30] {RonS} Medco $MHS, Express Scripts $ESRX shares plunge as FTC collecting evidence to block deal -Reuters
[13:31] {RonS} wag spike off this
[13:39] {dino} esrx vsm l .25
[13:43] {Threei}  (IR) White House's Carney: US plans to increase the pressure on Iran, levy new sanctions
[13:44] {Threei}  Iran: Nooooo... more sanctions??
[13:45] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .40 break
[13:45] {dino} esrx out
[13:49] {Threei}  want to change LVS to aggressive entry
[13:49] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .50 break
[13:49] {Threei}  if stays under .55 for scalpers, .60 day traders
[13:52] {Threei}  in
[13:52] {Threei}  market reversed down
[13:53] {Threei}  want to take it even more aggressive
[13:53] {Threei}  .61 stop
[13:53] {Threei}  small risk
[13:53] {Threei}  no worky
[13:56] {andj} Good morning...
[13:57] {Threei}  morning andj
[13:57] {andj} How was your weekend?
[13:57] {Threei}  sunny
[14:08] {Les} GMCR back to 69
[14:32] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  36 brea
[14:32] {Threei}  if stays above .95
[14:36] {nemo} chop chop chop chop chop chop chop chop
[14:37] {Threei}  that's why I keep stops this tight
[14:37] {nemo} virgin stops?
[14:38] {stewy} .
[14:43] {Threei}  salmon so far
[14:44] {Threei}  needs SPY bounce to explode
[14:44] {Threei}  "iksplode" is right spelling though, I believe
[14:45] {Les} NEMO LOOK UP
[14:49] {Threei}  no go
[14:51] {Les} goddamn that guy. Is anyone close enough to kick him for me?
[14:51] {Threei}  Barclays, Standard Chartered and Lloyds are said to have not borrowed funds from the ECB in the three-year LTRO auction; citing associated stigma will accessing the program - financial press
[14:51] {Threei}  - Report indicates that "almost every" major bank in France, Spain and Italy borrowed funds from the ECB in the three-year LTRO.
[14:51] {Threei}  - HSBC did access the pgoram
[14:52] {Threei}  pgoram? I could give them typing lessons
[14:59] {dino} pcar stop -.13
[15:00] {Les} fcx finding resistance at yesterday's close.
[15:05] {dino} simo l .50
[15:11] {Les} fcx reversal looking good
[15:13] {Les} lvs back to .40 and lod
[15:15] {Threei}  yup, same setup about to became valid again
[15:15] {Threei}  let's see if it consolidates
[15:23] {Les} lvs looking better this time for short setup
[15:23] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .40 break
[15:28] {Threei}  perdsonal preference, I'll try for more than scalp
[15:28] {Les} looking at .20 - .15
[15:29] {Threei}  half out
[15:29] {Threei}  stop to .41
[15:30] {stewy} scalp taken thanksyou
[15:30] {Threei}  :)
[15:30] {Les} like sex. The reality is never quite as interesting as the fantasy...
[15:31] {Les} enough chop for me. outta here. c u tomorrow
[15:31] {Threei}  hmmm... my condolences
[15:31] {nemo} lvs at pivot probbly gonna stay around here going into the close
[15:31] {Threei}  take care Les
[15:32] {nemo} No less no more
[15:34] {dino} simo to b/e, back in ten
[15:51] {stewy} a good monday, huh vad?
[15:53] {Threei}  pretty much
[15:53] {Threei}  not earthsuttering, but fair and solid
[15:55] {Threei}  in case you had any dioubts:
[15:55] {Threei}  (GR) Greece Fin Min Venizelos: Talks with the Troika are continuing
[15:55] {Threei}  lol
[15:56] {Threei}  OK guys, thank you all
[15:56] {Threei}  have a great evening, see you tonmorrow
[15:57] {stewy} thanks, good night everyone.

Nemo's Findings

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  


Here are the images:

Here are the links:

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=c484775a-e72e-4f17-b23d-12dcf1e3c477

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=ad8ad521-52b2-4acd-913f-9f21a1fb85c7

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=848c3362-b053-4999-8033-11a5a58719c7

Here's a link to the original post describing the approach:

http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2011/12/multi-time-frame-pivot-analysis.html

Market Week Wrap-up

Market Week Wrap-up

- The risk-on rally returned this week as investors took heart from some improved economic data, capped off by an excellent US January employment report. China's improved January manufacturing PMI reading, better European PMI reports for January and strong Empire and Dallas Fed manufacturing surveys sustained the positive sentiment and helped markets get over the feeling that the situation in Greece may be heading for a crack up. At Tuesday's informal EU leaders' summit, 25 EU member states (ex the UK and the Czech Republic) further refined their commitment to the new fiscal pact and the €500B ESM permanent bailout fund, which further aided sentiment. In the background, Greece's murky negotiations with its creditors and concerns that Portugal might need a second bailout package generated headlines all week and caused the spread between 10-year Portuguese and German government bonds to hit record euro-era highs. Many analysts had been anticipating another cut to the PBoC's reserve ratio requirement following the Chinese lunar New Year holiday, however fresh worries about inflation seem to have trumped the desire for more easing. On Friday, US January payrolls soared above expectations and the unemployment rate declined to its lowest level in three years, casting doubt on whether the Fed could wait until 2014 to raise interest rates. For the week the DJIA gained 1.6%, the NASDAQ increased 3.2% and the S&P 500 was up 2.2%.

- Quarterly results from energy giants Exxon and Royal Dutch Shell were mixed. Results from both firms actually managed to beat consensus estimates, although trends affecting both names spooked investors. Higher crude prices only just offset falling margins in each firm's downstream operations and both are being substantially impacted by the continuing slide in natural gas prices. Refiners Tesoro and Marathon Petroleum, Marathon's spun-out downstream arm, got hit hard by crude prices in the quarter. Oilfield services names Diamond Offshore and National Oilwell Varco performed well on solid quarterly results.

- Dow component Pfizer met expectations in its Q4, but also cut its FY12 guidance slightly. On the conference call, executives warned that cost of sales are increasing y/y, putting downward pressure on margins. Competitor Lilly beat expectations and reaffirmed its FY12 guidance. Both firms said that the wave of patent expirations and generic competition would be a big factor this year.

- Insurance giants Aetna and Allstate did very well, thanks to big improvements in their combined ratios. Bottom-line profits widely beat expectations at both firms. Cigna missed expectations and offered sub-par initial FY12 guidance, thanks to some significant acquisition-related costs in the quarter. MasterCard satisfied consensus expectations in its Q4, with strong double-digit y/y gains in purchase volumes and transactions. On the conference call, executives said they are seeing continued strength in US debit and commercial cards business in January.

- Amazon shocked markets with a second consecutive quarter of very mixed results. Fourth quarter profits were down sharply y/y for a second quarter in a row, even as revenue continued growing respectably. Margins recovered from last quarter's terrible showing, but are still way below trend. However it was the firm's guidance that was most worrisome, as Amazon warned it could lose money in Q1. Broadcom broadly met expectations in its Q4 report and Q1 guidance, and also modestly increased its dividend. Seagate topped profit expectations thanks to big improvements in margins.
Qualcomm gained on solid outperformance in Q4 earnings and a hike in FY12 guidance. However the tech obsession of the week was Facebook, which filed to sell $5B in common stock, with the IPO expected in the second quarter of FY12. The news of the IPO filing sent stocks in the fledging "social" internet space surging, including big gains in Groupon, Linkedin, and Zynga.

- There was little in the way of concrete, confirmed news on Greece's negotiations with its private creditors out this week. There were, however, rampant rumors, unconfirmed reports and clarifications by spokespeople. A week ago, the deal was said to be "imminent," but as of writing no deal had been reached on PSI, and most news gave the impression that the talks are very difficult and aimed at a truly comprehensive deal. More issues are emerging in Greece as the due date for the second bailout package approaches rapidly and Greece's fiscal condition worsens. Press reports suggest the estimated size of the package has expanded to €145B from the original €130B proposal. In addition, the Greek leadership seems to be splintering under the pressure. Another round of austerity measures must be passed in order to clinch the second bailout deal, and there were reports that PM Papademos was threatening to resign if the three parties in the coalition government were unwilling to pass the measures. In addition, discord began to emerge over proposals for various European central banks to also take some losses on their Greek debt holdings (the so-called OSI negotiations).

- EUR/USD closed out last week at the upper end of its technical rebound of 1.3220, however the pair found it impossible to get above the that level. Investors have been doing their best to hedge for a euro collapse, although the more or less positive outcome from the EU leaders' summit provided an excuse for some of the recent risk-on sentiment. The ongoing debt exchange tragedy in Athens, poor Spanish unemployment data and Spanish and French bond auction results prevented the pair from taking out the key 1.3320 level. There was a certain amount of positive sentiment following comments by China Premier Wen, who during a state visit by German Chancellor Merkel, said China was considering involvement in EFSF and ESM. Wen later clarified that Europe needs to rely on its own resources. Many dealers said two-way flows were prevalent in trading, including a plethora of option-related orders.

- In other currency market action, moves in USD/JPY continued to test the BoJ's resolve. The pair bottomed out at three-month lows on Wednesday just above 76.05 and stayed there through Friday morning, when the US payroll report sent the pair higher. EUR/CHF cross tested its lowest level since the 1.2000 floor was imposed last September. A financial blog commented on retail positions in the cross and noted that the ratio of longs to shorts was roughly at 24 to 1. The recent lows had been 1.2020 as investors continued to bet that the SNB would defend the floor.

- China returned from a week-long Lunar New Year break to surprisingly improved economic data. January manufacturing PMI returned to above-50 expansion territory with a 50.5 print vs 49.6 consensus, a 4-month high. Improved economic conditions have led analysts to question the likelihood of further PBoC policy easing, previously anticipated to take place in the form of more reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts sometime around the holiday season. Instead, some of the policymakers in China have maintained their focus on continued threat of inflation. Most notably, Finance Minister Xie suggested substantial pressure on price increases remains given the upside potential of domestic demand.

-Down under, December trade data in Australia also showed an unexpected improvement, with the first rise in trade surplus in 4 months. Fixed income markets continue to price in a near-certain rate cut from the RBA early next week, while some of the analysts suggested the apparent recovery makes the case for further easing less clear cut.

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