Oct 5 2012

Nice end to a nice week, finishing with all profitable days. A link to the photo from the conference, to emphasize Friday-ness: http://goo.gl/6lOzY

Session Time: Fri Oct 05 00:00:00 2012

01[08:54] {Threei}  heh

01[08:54] {Threei}  *(US) SEPT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 7.8% V 8.2%E (lowest in 44 months)

[08:54] {nemo} it's a communist plot

[08:55] {nemo} the revisions are the big deal

01[08:55] {Threei}  nice malarkey

[08:56] {nemo} mhhh tbt must have reversed split

[08:56] {nemo} not faz though

[08:56] {nemo} or tza

[09:03] {scottie} gm

01[09:03] {Threei}  scottie :)

[09:05] {scottie} Vad I have a question about order execution

01[09:05] {Threei}  shoot

[09:07] {scottie} When a stock goes too fast above your entry point and you miss your entry, and themn the stock gets back to pick you up, do you wait until the stock crosses the entry point and goes back up again, or do you enter as soon as the stock reaches your entry point ?

01[09:08] {Threei}  both are valid ways, it's mostly a personal choice, qwith one distinction:

01[09:09] {Threei}  if a stock broke and overshot my entry point, and before it returned to it something happened that made me think it can drop lower, I cancel and wait for better entry,

01[09:09] {Threei}  example would be:

01[09:09] {Threei}  market reversed sharply,

01[09:09] {Threei}  or bids on level 2 disappeared

01[09:10] {Threei}  In such cases I will cancel and wait

01[09:10] {Threei}  otherwise, it's more of a "mood of the minute" thing

[09:10] {scottie} very clear, tks

01[09:12] {Threei}  right now for instance I am in mood to grab machine gun and go talk to whoever is responsible for the prices for travel

01[09:12] {Threei}  here is a kicker:

01[09:13] {Threei}  the same trip to Hawaii for two that I research for this christmas, from and seattle differs in price by $600

01[09:13] {Threei}  flight from victoria to seattle is 30 min

01[09:13] {Threei}  frikin canadiana

[09:14] {dino} gm

01[09:14] {Threei}  dino :)

01[09:14] {Threei}  and tome constraints around the trip won't allow two extra days to take a ferry trip to Seattle on both ways

01[09:15] {Threei}  time

[09:16] {Beau} good morning'

01[09:16] {Threei}  beau :)

[09:19] {ese} morning

[09:21] {ese} was able to get about 5min in yesterday morning and went L aig at .74

01[09:22] {Threei}  ese :)

[09:23] {ese} am still in....held it over night.........am hoping it'll get back to the $1400.00 she it was at in 2007

[09:23] {ese} per shs

01[09:23] {Threei}  hmmm

[09:23] {ese} ya right es

[09:24] {ese} would classify that as an unrealistic trading goal for today vad?

[09:24] {ese} just trying to be optimistic

[09:24] {Will49} gm

[09:24] {ese} will

01[09:25] {Threei}  let's say, it's a somewhat heightened expectations...

01[09:25] {Threei}  will :)

[09:25] {ese} lol

01[09:25] {Threei}  btw, ese, will... reposting for you:

01[09:25] {Threei}  [09:12] {Threei} right now for instance I am in mood to grab machine gun and go talk to whoever is responsible for the prices for travel

01[09:25] {Threei}  [09:12] {Threei} here is a kicker:

01[09:25] {Threei}  [09:13] {Threei} the same trip to Hawaii for two that I research for this christmas, from and seattle differs in price by $600

01[09:25] {Threei}  [09:13] {Threei} flight from victoria to seattle is 30 min

01[09:25] {Threei}  [09:13] {Threei} frikin canadiana

01[09:25] {Threei}  09:14] {Threei} and time constraints around the trip won't allow two extra days to take a ferry trip to Seattle on both ways

[09:26] {nemo} bohica

[09:26] {ese} frikin canadiana is right

[09:28] {nemo} LVS  probably headed to 200 SMA

[09:28] {ese} Last year when I took my professional R&B Band to Denmark the trip was $890.00 round trip from Seatle.........the leg from Victoria to Seattle return was $490.00........that was frikin ridiculous

[09:29] {ese} total cost $1380.00 becasue of the Victoria Seattle leg..........were going again next summer but we ain't flying to Seattle that for sure

01[09:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .90 break

01[09:31] {Threei}  If holds  .80 

[09:32] {ese} in .91

01[09:32] {Threei}  let's tighten to .84

[09:32] {ese} done

01[09:32] {Threei}  target 1:2

01[09:32] {Threei}  1:1

01[09:33] {Threei}  half put and stop to .89

01[09:33] {Threei}  1:2

01[09:33] {Threei}  out

[09:33] {ese} a1/2 .10

[09:33] {ese} full .15

[09:33] {scottie} +.23 ty Vad

01[09:33] {Threei}  yw

[09:33] {ese} NICE!!!!!!!!!!

01[09:33] {Threei}  that was easy

[09:33] {Will49} tks

[09:33] {ese} tk you vad

01[09:33] {Threei}  yw

[09:33] {ese} boy was it easy

01[09:34] {Threei}  strangely easy entry for opening play too

[09:34] {Will49} let's not get euphoric

01[09:34] {Threei}  even mde me think for a second wasn't going to work

01[09:34] {Threei}  tell that to FCX will

[09:34] {Will49} :)

01[09:34] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .50 break hl

[09:34] {nemo} vlo

[09:35] {nemo} .33 offer

01[09:35] {Threei}  If holds  .60 

[09:35] {nemo} disappeared

[09:36] {goryl} vad, fcx was a continuation setup?

01[09:37] {Threei}  open range break

[09:38] {dolores} hello GM

01[09:38] {Threei}  dolores :)

01[09:39] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .85 break

01[09:39] {Threei}  If holds  .80 

[09:39] {dino} mdco drop

01[09:41] {Threei} Long Setup:  HPQ  .75 break

[09:41] {dino} lqdt drop

01[09:41] {Threei}  If holds  .70 

01[09:42] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .65 break

01[09:42] {Threei}  If holds  .60 

[09:42] {dino} mdco sm l .55

[09:43] {dino} lqdt sm l .04

01[09:44] {Threei}  no go HPQ

[09:44] {nemo} the jobs gain were all primarily part-time jobs

[09:44] {nemo} infa

[09:44] {dino} they messed w/it

[09:44] {nemo} nah, they wouldn't do that

[09:45] {dino} yeah, right

[09:47] {dolores} LVS no go right?

01[09:47] {Threei}  it invalidated before triggering

[09:48] {dolores} yes

[09:48] {dino} lqdt stop -.31

[09:49] {dino} rinsed

01[09:49] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  41 break

01[09:49] {Threei}  If holds  .10 

[09:53] {nemo} here we go

01[09:53] {Threei}  oh well

[09:53] {nemo} market euphoric

[09:54] {Will49} win some lose some...next!

01[09:57] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .60 break

01[09:57] {Threei}  If holds  .70 

01[09:58] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  46 break

01[09:58] {Threei}  SLW 1:1

01[10:00] {Threei}  1:2, out

01[10:01] {Threei}  LVS 1:1 in a hurry

01[10:02] {Threei}  [09:54] {Will49} win some lose some...next! {--- your wish is my command

[10:02] {Will49} ahriiiightt

[10:02] {Will49} nice catch on LVS

01[10:02] {Threei}  (whispering to the side) will he ever stop rubbing that lamp?

[10:04] {dino} lqdt sm l .90

[10:05] {dptl} gm

01[10:06] {Threei}  1:2, out

01[10:06] {Threei}  dp :)

[10:07] {scottie} +.18 ty Vad

01[10:07] {Threei}  yw

[10:12] {nemo} nflx

[10:12] {nemo} l .53

[10:13] {nemo} stop under .40

[10:13] {dptl} pay .50?

[10:13] {nemo} first offer .73

[10:14] {nemo} 1st partial

[10:15] {nemo} looking for 66.20ish for next one

[10:15] {nemo} stop is .49ish

[10:17] {dino} lqdt stopped again

[10:17] {dptl} gmcr .90 s?

01[10:18] {Threei}  can't tell

[10:19] {nemo} o.k. we'll get spy 153 next week

[10:20] {Will49} how so nemo?

[10:21] {dptl} mpc .60 l?

01[10:21] {Threei}  probably, yes

[10:23] {dino} gotta hop, back in hour give or take

[10:23] {Will49} bunny hop

[10:28] {nemo} wow, my stop held in NFLX

[10:28] {Will49} nice to watch you perform

[10:28] {Will49} with narration

[10:29] {nemo} reminds me, haven't seen bunny this morning

[10:31] {nemo} stop to .74

[10:31] {dptl} lyb 53 l?

[10:31] {nemo} yeah

01[10:33] {Threei}  meh

[10:40] {nemo} frickin' netflix

01[10:43] {Threei}  the heights of idiocy...

01[10:43] {Threei}  (US) Fed's Dudley: Housing market failing to respond to monetary policy is a strong impediment to growth; housing market though is starting to add to growth- Foreclosures and delinquences still are problems - Housing market is trending up gradually, though absolute levels of housing starts and sales remain low

01[10:43] {Threei}  average incomes drop, you idiot

01[10:44] {Threei}  your "improvement" is based on increase of subprime mortgages in various forms

01[10:44] {Threei}  let's do it all over again

01[10:50] {Threei}  they reverse-split VXX, I see...

01[10:51] {Threei}  looks more tradeable, that was a prefect setup with .60 breakout

[10:55] {dptl} gild .50 s?

01[10:56] {Threei}  need some tighter consolidation

[10:56] {dptl} ye invalidated

[10:59] {dptl} what about gmcr .90 s Vad

[10:59] {nemo} Qs look bounce ready

01[11:01] {Threei}  don't know, it has no clear patterns

[11:01] {dptl} ok

[11:06] {dptl} dg .70 s?

01[11:07] {Threei}  jelly fish

[11:11] {dptl} wlp .40s?

01[11:13] {Threei}  if not going over .45 anymore

[11:16] {scottie} low l .95 ?

01[11:16] {Threei}  sure

01[11:16] {Threei}  with this stop, I'll take most trades :)

[11:17] {scottie} too fast

[11:17] {dptl} yeah

[11:17] {Will49} good eye scottie

01[11:17] {Threei}  will think of it as cheap gambling but will call it scientific name: risk-based setup

[11:17] {scottie} ty

[11:17] {Will49} lol

[11:18] {scottie} vod l .30 ?

01[11:19] {Threei}  way too narrow

[11:19] {scottie} think low is still valid ?

[11:19] {scottie} too late again

01[11:20] {Threei}  A minor media firestorm broke out regarding the surprising decline in the overall unemployment rate, which is dictated by the BLS's household survey. The latter showed an 873K increase in employed individuals and this surprisingly large gain was primarily due to a surge in part-time employment plus big declines in unemployed individuals looking for work (individuals employed part-time rose by 582K following a 215K decline in August while the number of unemployed job-seekers fell by 456K)

[11:21] {dptl} wlp not in short list damn

01[11:21] {Threei}  As unemployment benefits run out, more individuals are being forced into part-time work, and in fact some believe the decline in the official unemployment rate could actually be seen as a sign of greater economic slack. In any case, many analysts see month-to-month volatility in the household series as noise, and rightly point out that it makes the overall unemployment rate a very poor benchmark for the duration of the Fed's QE3 program.

01[11:22] {Threei}  hehe:

01[11:22] {Threei}  Some commentators on the right condemned the statistics as inflated or manipulated, drawing an outraged response from Labor Secretary Solis.

01[11:22] {Threei}  cue dino with his "doth protests too much"

01[11:22] {Threei}  -s

[11:23] {Will49} Obummer will be happy with that news

01[11:23] {Threei}  he is on the screen right now, dissing that damn bush and two wars on credit card

01[11:23] {Threei}  crowd goes wild

01[11:24] {Threei}  I need to tape this stuff...

01[11:25] {Threei}  every time in the future if I have even a touch of suspicion that crowds might have a speckle of intelligenece, I will watch it again and sisabuse myself of that delusion

[11:25] {Will49} crowd listening to him made up of unemployed people

[11:26] {Will49} it's all smoke and mirrors and show business out there these days

[11:37] {dptl} qcom .95 s?

01[11:37] {Threei}  I think so

01[11:37] {Threei}  nice dense layer of nothing but air under that support

[11:38] {dptl} with .05 stop

[11:38] {dptl} in .93

01[11:39] {Threei}  don't scalp it IMO

01[11:39] {Threei}  there is no support down to gap fill

[11:39] {dptl} ok

01[11:39] {Threei}  with any market help, 25 - 30 cents should be easy

01[11:41] {Threei}  1:1

[11:42] {dptl} half out

01[11:42] {Threei}  as old russian poem for kids say, "digging in the pile of cow crap, a rooster fiound real gemstone" :)

[11:43] {dptl} lol

[11:43] {dptl} stop to .96?

01[11:44] {Threei}  sure

01[11:44] {Threei}  textbook

01[11:44] {Threei}  don't know why you even ask

01[11:44] {Threei}  the less thinking the less headache

01[11:44] {Threei}  toothache

[11:44] {dptl} just need to talk to someone you know...i get lonly lol

01[11:44] {Threei}  stomachache

[11:45] {Will49} another old Russian saying

01[11:45] {Threei}  I strongly advise to get a bunny

[11:45] {dptl} lol

01[11:54] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/uGrVV

[11:55] {dptl} sleemans eh :)

[11:56] {dptl} honey brown

01[11:56] {Threei}  yes sir

[11:56] {dptl} nice :)

01[11:57] {Threei}  lol, twitter is brutal:

01[11:57] {Threei}  Confident. Cocky. In Control. In Command. Amazing what a teleprompter does for President Obama.

[11:57] {Will49} was that Les listening to you?

01[11:57] {Threei}  lol, no

01[12:01] {Threei}  frigtening words by president... "this country has come too far to turn back now"

01[12:01] {Threei}  that's what I am afraid of

[12:03] {dptl} to .91 qcom

[12:13] {dptl} out

[12:14] {robbers} Good find, never-the-less, dp, I got it for about .14, thanks.

01[12:16] {Threei}  yup, very decent setup

01[12:17] {Threei}  market reversal prevented it from more drop, but

[12:25] {dptl} how about coh .20 l?

01[12:26] {Threei}  worth a try, half lot

[12:32] {dptl} in coh .21

[12:36] {dptl} stop under .10

[12:44] {dptl} out some stop to under .20

[12:44] {robbers} Took the scalp on coh, thanks again dp.

[12:44] {dptl} :)

[12:50] {dptl} out

01[12:54] {Threei}  isn't this whole week amazing? quiet calm patience gets us one profitable day after another

[12:56] {Will49} been a great week

[12:57] {Will49} I was lulled into thinking I'm actually improving:)

01[13:01] {Threei}  guys, my plans for December become clearer, so for you to plan accordingly

01[13:01] {Threei}  since there is a 30st anniversary of my wife's biggest mistake in life approaches, she wanted to celebrate it properly

[13:01] {Will49} :)

01[13:02] {Threei}  by throwing me either overboard of a cruise ship or from the helicopter into flowing lava

[13:02] {dptl} lol

01[13:02] {Threei}  I hate cold, so I chose lava

01[13:02] {Threei}  thus, Dec 17 to Dec 25 I'll be off to Big Island

01[13:02] {Threei}  trading is very quiet at that time anyway

[13:03] {nemo} might as well take the next week too

01[13:03] {Threei}  nah, she has some other obligations

01[13:04] {Threei}  me, I won't have any, other than drinking with Pele, Hawaiian goddess of fire

[13:04] {dolores} hey congrats to your wife VAD!!!!

[13:04] {dolores} 30 years....

[13:04] {dolores} that says a lot

01[13:04] {Threei}  thank you

[13:04] {dolores} of both

[13:05] {Will49} yes....married to the same woman

01[13:05] {Threei}  all it says is she is a very patient woman

[13:05] {dolores} well it takes two to tango

01[13:05] {Threei}  putting up with me just can't be easy

[13:05] {Will49} guess she never hit your stop eh Vad?

01[13:05] {Threei}  and I decisively do not dance :)

01[13:06] {Threei}  I kept averaging down, will :)

[13:06] {dptl} len .70 s?

[13:06] {Will49} the only place it works

[13:07] {dolores} ja ja you dance the tango of life VAD

01[13:07] {Threei}  I think so dp

[13:07] {Will49} I've bought the dips three times

[13:07] {dptl} in len .68

[13:08] {dptl} stop above .80

[13:09] {nemo} your wife only bought the dip once

[13:10] {Will49} you mean drip

[13:10] {Will49} sheees, missed your call dp...trying to be funny

[13:10] {Will49} that'll teach me

[13:18] {dptl} stopped

[13:19] {scottie} Ok I'm done, see you all monday, tks Vad

01[13:19] {Threei}  take care scottie

[13:20] {Will49} have a nice weekend scottie

[13:20] {dptl} vlo .30 l?

[13:20] {scottie} will

01[13:24] {Threei}  if market climbs...

[13:27] {dptl} ocn 37 l?

01[13:29] {Threei}  yeah

01[13:29] {Threei}  doesn't drop with market

[13:31] {dptl} invalidated

[13:33] {dptl} hmm valid again?

[13:35] {nemo} tna .70 l stop under .60

[13:36] {dolores} hpq s  14.90?

[13:36] {dptl} i went for it ...l ocn

[13:37] {Will49} the natives are restless

[13:40] {nemo} partial .83

[13:40] {nemo} fas long set up too

[13:40] {nemo} l .50 fas

[13:40] {nemo} stop under .40

[13:43] {nemo} oy

[13:44] {nemo} nnnhhhh...wonder how uch higher tna can go if financials don't go with it

[13:45] {nemo} stop to .70 tna

01[13:45] {Threei}  I think so dolores

[13:45] {dptl} stopped ocn....i am.doing something wrong last few days

[13:45] {dolores} ok

[13:46] {dolores} thxs

[13:46] {dolores} NUVA breaking down again today

01[13:50] {Threei}  I told you dp

01[13:51] {Threei}  you are pushing for plays that require particpation while there is none

[13:52] {nemo} what is he Chechen?

01[13:56] {Threei}  who?

[13:56] {nemo} dp

[13:56] {dptl} hes .60 s?

01[13:56] {Threei}  why?

01[13:57] {Threei}  yes

[13:57] {nemo} knew it

01[13:57] {Threei}  no... why for you, yes for dp :)

[13:57] {dptl} roflol

01[14:02] {Threei}  Ohio tightened to 1 point

01[14:05] {Threei}  perform as well in two remaining debates, and you may have a chance, Romney

[14:08] {dptl} qcom .80 s?

01[14:09] {Threei}  very much depends on SPY

[14:10] {dptl} in hes

[14:11] {dptl} .70 stop

[14:16] {dptl} looks promising so far hes

[14:16] {Will49} with you dp

[14:17] {dptl} oh good i like company

[14:17] {dptl} :)

[14:17] {Will49} it's not fast company, but it is company

[14:17] {dptl} :)

[14:25] {nemo} lwe trade monday?

[14:26] {nemo} we're trading

01[14:27] {Threei}  yes, why?

[14:27] {nemo} It's a frickin' holiday?

[14:27] {Will49} turkey dinner is after market closes

01[14:28] {Threei}  next holiday for the market is November 22

01[14:28] {Threei}  http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.aspx?id=Calendar

[14:30] {nemo} kors near bounce territory

[14:31] {dptl} vlo ? is that DB?

[14:31] {nemo} based on that volume spike yes, but if it drops the low still a short

[14:32] {dptl} ok

[14:32] {nemo} yep kors bounced

[14:33] {dptl} die hes....die

[14:33] {Will49} yeah yeah

[14:34] {Will49} after the trades in the first hour...these seem to take forever

[14:40] {Will49} holding up well in the face of market drops

[14:40] {Will49} how long do you wait until tightening

[14:40] {Will49} the stop that is

[14:42] {nemo} think I like upro .90 break

[14:43] {dptl} i am keeping .70 stop if it breaks .50 will move to b/e

[14:43] {Will49} ok

[14:43] {dptl} better work or i am dumed :)

[14:44] {nemo} dumb or doomed?

[14:44] {Will49} dumed is Chechen for ftked

[14:44] {dptl} doomed .jeez

[14:45] {Will49} :D

06[14:45] * dptl slaps nemo around a bit with a large trout

06[14:45] * jackharry slaps jackharry around a bit with a large trout

06[14:45] * nemo slaps dp around with a chain saw

[14:46] {robbers} * robbers slaps himself.

[14:46] {dptl} if it breaks .70 you can do it 

01[14:46] {Threei}  that must've hurt

01[14:54] {Threei}  market tripped of something

01[14:54] {Threei}  dolores, still holding that HPQ short?

[14:55] {nemo} friday afternoon after a good week

[14:55] {Will49} 1:1

[14:55] {dolores} pity covered

01[14:56] {Threei}  HES works

[14:56] {dolores} waited for unending hours!!

[14:56] {Will49} finlly

[14:56] {dptl} half out

[14:56] {Will49} finally

[14:56] {dolores} and covered on a bounce

[14:56] {dolores} then went higher and now down

01[14:56] {Threei}  I don't know why you apply some time constraints on trades... slow market, they work slowly - but let them work

[14:57] {dolores} yes 

[14:57] {Will49} true dat

[14:57] {Will49} big issue for me is impatience

[14:57] {dolores} yes should have put the stop at entry and forgot about it

[14:58] {dolores} forget

01[14:59] {Threei}  1:2 HES

01[14:59] {Threei}  that's the way to do it dolores... no creativity at the execution stage

[15:00] {dolores} yes will do that so I dont stay watching it specially when so slow

[15:00] {Will49} tks dp

01[15:00] {Threei}  next week I'll finally get to that article on boredom in trading

[15:00] {dolores} great subject

[15:00] {dptl} stop to .56 for me

[15:16] {dolores} Guys I will be taking a break for a while

[15:16] {dolores} talked to VAD already and hopefully will be abck soon

01[15:16] {Threei}  we will be here dolores

[15:16] {nemo} always takes longer than you expect

[15:16] {dolores} i learned a lot

01[15:16] {Threei}  you are moving in the right direction

[15:16] {Will49} take care D...hope all is well

[15:17] {nemo} I've been waiting 50+ years to grow up

[15:17] {dolores} and wanted to thank you all

01[15:17] {Threei}  and in 40+ there may be a slight hope

[15:17] {nemo} nah

[15:17] {dolores} I will miss you

01[15:17] {Threei}  we will too

[15:17] {nemo} why, you leaving Vad?

[15:17] {dolores} NEMO you might not like compliments but you are agreat guy

01[15:17] {Threei}  it's doable, this room is full of confirmations

[15:17] {dolores} not so say nice!

[15:18] {nemo} oh oh

[15:18] {dolores} and that bunny says a lot

[15:18] {nemo} puked all over my keyboard

01[15:18] {Threei}  hehe

[15:18] {Will49} i demand evidence

[15:18] {nemo} bunny talking behind my back

[15:18] {nemo} sheesh

[15:18] {dolores} and all of you but  have a special spot for NEMO

[15:18] {nemo} ty dolores

[15:18] {dolores} what can I do???

01[15:18] {Threei}  evidence of nemo being a great guy, will?

[15:19] {nemo} means.........

[15:19] {Will49} yes

[15:19] {nemo} The Apocalypse.....

01[15:19] {Threei}  well... gals know betterm they operate on intuitive level.. :)

[15:19] {dino} good luck dolores

[15:20] {dolores} thxs

[15:21] {dolores}  as i wrote to VAD i learned a lot most of anything more disciline and less negative paterns but I am still slow and need more practice!

[15:21] {dolores} wish you the best and great  trading

[15:21] {nemo} whaddya' mean slow?

[15:21] {dolores} I know I wll be back stronger

[15:22] {nemo} you need to find the style that fits you...

[15:22] {dolores} with the trades

[15:22] {dolores} yes 

[15:22] {nemo} Dino isn't fast

[15:22] {nemo} yet he does fine

[15:22] {dolores} jaja

[15:23] {dolores} yes he is

[15:25] {dolores} CMG hammered

[15:25] {dolores} people dont eat any more !

[15:26] {nemo} Soylent Green is People!!!

[15:26] {dptl} vlo .20l?

[15:26] {dino} einhorn short cmg

[15:26] {nemo} only if you're a machine

[15:27] {dolores} that came out now?

01[15:28] {Threei}  (GR) ECB's Asmussen: Reiterates that ECB cannot extend the maturity of Greek bonds; next tranche of aid for Greece is not a done deal **Reminder: On Sept 25th, Asmussen said that he opposes concept of erasing parts of Greece debt. On Sept 26th, IMF said it wanted the EU to take a haircut on holdings of Greece public sector bonds (so-called OSI

01[15:29] {Threei}  no dolores, two days ago

[15:29] {dolores} oh ok

01[15:29] {Threei}  Tuesday, October 02, 2012 11:14:47Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Greenlight Capital's Einhorn: Chipotle is a short, stock has a nosebleed valuation with no room for deceleration - Value Investing Congress- Shorting Chipotle on valuation, believes the company is well run with good management. - Biggest challenge is Taco Bell, discussions of Chipotle rarely include Taco Bell, but they should. - Taco Bell's (YUM) Cantina Bell premium product is stealing customers from Chipotle

[15:29] {dolores} ok thxs

[15:30] {dptl} mpc  .20 s?

[15:35] {nemo} dolores dcc

[15:39] {dolores} wrong button

[15:45] {dino} calling it a week. thx all. good luck dolores

01[15:48] {Threei}  take care dino

[15:49] {Will49} Happy Thanksgiving to my fellow Canucks

[15:49] {dptl} have a good weekend all

[15:49] {Will49} Have a good weekend all

[15:49] {Will49} great minds, eh?

01[15:50] {Threei}  thank you sll, good week

01[15:51] {Threei}  habe a great weekend, see you on Monday

01[15:51] {Threei}  hope to see you back soon, dolores!

[15:52] {dolores} thank you vad ME TOO

Oct 4 2012

Nice morning, dead afternoon, nice end of day. Profitable with no exciting adventures, as trading should be.


Session Time: Thu Oct 04 00:00:00 2012
[08:37] {nemo} job numbers not good by small margin, market doesn't care, buying it
01[08:59] {Threei}  yawn
[08:59] {goryl} gm boss:)
01[08:59] {Threei}  what the deuce, will my body ever switch the time??
01[08:59] {Threei}  goryl :)
[09:03] {jackharry} good morning
01[09:03] {Threei}  jack :)
[09:10] {dino} gm
01[09:10] {Threei}  dino :)
01[09:13] {Threei}  so, romney proved me so very wrong yesterday
[09:17] {dolores} good morning!
01[09:17] {Threei}  dolores :)
[09:18] {Beau} gm
01[09:18] {Threei}  beau :)
01[09:19] {Threei}  don't know if it has much impact on election results, but it was amazingly strong performance under tremendous pressure
[09:20] {robbers} FWIW:  http://www.marketwatch.com/story/thursdays-biggest-gaining-and-declining-stocks-2012-10-04?link=MW_latest_news
[09:22] {scottie} good morning
01[09:22] {Threei}  scottie :)
01[09:22] {Threei}  HPQ is weak again
[09:22] {Will49} gm
01[09:22] {Threei}  will :)
01[09:28] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/pMfdi
01[09:32] {Threei}  ugh... thought of HPQ .65 short
01[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .90 break hl
01[09:33] {Threei}  .97 stop
01[09:33] {Threei}  awww HPQ
01[09:34] {Threei}  half out FCX
01[09:34] {Threei}  stop .91
01[09:35] {Threei}  out in full
01[09:35] {Threei}  nice 20 cents start
01[09:35] {Threei}  if I may say so myself
[09:36] {Will49} nice
[09:36] {scottie} +.21 great start
01[09:36] {Threei}  :)
01[09:38] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .20 break
01[09:38] {Threei}  If holds  .26
01[09:39] {Threei}  official line by Obama campaign: Romnry practiced a lot and won on theatrical performance
01[09:40] {Threei}  nothing like sore loser
[09:41] {dino} he got his butt kicked and he looked old and cranky
01[09:41] {Threei}  half out LVS
01[09:42] {Threei}  ok dino, stop hinting that he looked like me, okay}
01[09:42] {Threei}  stop .21
[09:43] {nemo} financials strong
[09:43] {nemo} nflx
[09:44] {nemo} dino .00 level
[09:44] {nemo} what .00 level
[09:45] {nemo} things look down
[09:46] {nemo} dollar down too
[09:48] {dptl} gm
01[09:48] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:50] {nemo} is the market trading
[09:51] {nemo} what's up with MCK
01[09:52] {Threei}  extension of Rite Aid deal
01[09:52] {Threei}  announced yesterday after close
01[09:54] {Threei}  (JP) Japan has withdrawn its ambassador from Taiwan in protest over clashes related to the disputed Senkaku Islands - Kyodo
01[09:54] {Threei} Long Setup:  HPQ  .40 break
01[09:55] {Threei}  If holds  .30
[09:59] {nemo} WMB
01[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) AUG FACTORY ORDERS: -5.2% V -5.9%E
01[10:01] {Threei} Short Setup: POT  .55 break
01[10:01] {Threei}  If holds  .60
[10:02] {dptl} fdo l?
01[10:03] {Threei}  meh
[10:05] {dptl} in hpq
[10:05] {dolores} too fast
[10:06] {dptl} i got .40
[10:10] {dptl}   i am out hpq
[10:11] {dptl} didt go with that moove, i don't like that
[10:25] {nemo} fcx .30 break interesting
[10:42] {scottie} rpm l .50?
[10:42] {scottie} in .52
01[10:43] {Threei}  you see the spread, right?
01[10:43] {Threei}  keep size reasonable
[10:44] {scottie} 100 shares only, offer .62
[10:46] {scottie} out +.10
[10:54] {dptl} hpq what the heck?
01[10:55] {Threei}  yeah
[10:56] {dptl} gmcr .25 l?
01[10:57] {Threei}  small shares
01[10:57] {Threei}  pulp
[10:57] {dptl} ye. bit jumpy today
[10:58] {dptl} lrcx .90 l?
01[11:00] {Threei}  I think so
[11:02] {scottie} sbux l .49?
[11:02] {scottie} 49
01[11:03] {Threei}  margunal setup...
01[11:03] {Threei}  marginal too
[11:03] {scottie} tks
[11:04] {dptl} lyb .50s?
[11:05] {dptl} missed
[11:05] {dptl} lrcx invalidated
[11:06] {dolores} hpq against market market up was coming down now market pullback and holds
[11:12] {dptl} jeezzz  stopped gmcr
[11:12] {dptl} look at that
01[11:12] {Threei}  [10:57] {Threei} pulp
01[11:13] {Threei} Long Setup:  INFA  .10 break
01[11:13] {Threei}  hl
01[11:13] {Threei}  If holds  25
[11:13] {dptl} yeah small but heck its just fell
[11:14] {dptl} in
01[11:14] {Threei}  pulp too
01[11:14] {Threei}  can go to .45
[11:15] {dptl} stopped
01[11:15] {Threei}  no go
[11:19] {dolores} INFA no go??
[11:23] {dptl} cog .85 s?
01[11:23] {Threei}  tagged under 25, dolores
01[11:24] {Threei}  can't tell dp
[11:26] {dolores} wow amazing INFA
[11:32] {nemo} support in the 23 area
[11:32] {dolores} thats low
[11:33] {Will49} hey..nemo is awake after all
[11:33] {dolores} can make a mess here if it tests those lows
[11:36] {dolores} looksit will !!
[11:37] {Will49} he's glued to INFA looking for the kill
[11:38] {nemo} nah, on the phone with ebay...sold an item, the buyer screwed me
[11:38] {nemo} too far away to kill
[11:38] {Will49} you didn't sell bunny did you?
[11:39] {Will49} INFA...the red energizer bunny
[11:40] {thomcbell} support?  - it is below a downward sloping 200sma that is currently 17 dollars above
[11:40] {thomcbell} for a 24 dollar stock
[11:43] {scottie} rpm l .80 ?
[11:44] {scottie} gone
[11:44] {Will49} good eye though
[11:45] {scottie} tks will
[11:46] {dptl} gild .60 l?
[11:47] {dptl} nah,
[11:48] {scottie} talking to yourself dp?
01[11:48] {Threei}  he has no bunny
[11:48] {dptl} lol yeah
[11:49] {Will49} I met dp's bunny at your BBQ
[11:49] {dptl} vz long may be?
[11:50] {dptl} with .55 stop
01[11:51] {Threei}  15 cents range
[11:51] {dptl} ye...
[11:57] {dptl} mpc .10s?
01[11:58] {Threei}  50/50
01[11:58] {Threei}  can't tell
[12:00] {dptl} jcp .50 s?
01[12:03] {Threei}  for a scalp
01[12:03] {Threei}  could be
[12:03] {dptl} shorted mcp
01[12:03] {Threei}  better yet, just take it here
01[12:04] {Threei}  woth .61 stop
[12:04] {dptl} mpc
[12:08] {dptl} nope stopped mpc
[12:15] {cc_8} Bank of America has published a research report on Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) that downgraded the company from Buy to Neutral.
[12:15] {dptl} ok in jcp .54 stop .61
[12:16] {dptl} stopped
[12:17] {dptl} taking a break
[12:18] {dolores} JCP 23.59 if holds .65?
01[12:19] {Threei}  not sure... random drifting
[12:20] {dolores} ok up now thxs
[12:25] {Beau} vad about :03 FCX l stp .25 where enter-.30?
01[12:27] {Threei}  sorry beau... asking about new play or some of old ones?
[12:28] {Beau} old one.  just learning
[12:29] {Beau} at 12:03
01[12:29] {Threei}  I don't see such call... what time?
01[12:29] {Threei}  oh
01[12:29] {Threei}  at that time I see .30 break with .20 stop
[12:30] {Beau} ok thx
[12:33] {dptl} l hes .60
[12:34] {dptl} .50stop
01[12:54] {Threei}  pushing it too much dp
01[12:54] {Threei}  market does nothing
[12:56] {dptl} ye ....i guess i am done for today
[13:13] {nemo} nke
01[13:20] {Threei}  (ES) Spain Econ Min de Guindos: Spain does not need a bailout, ECB proposals are not about a bailout; Spain is a sustainable economy, the euro's future is dependent on Spain- Declining labor costs will help increase competitiveness. - There is not alternative to cutting the deficit. - Elections are not a factor for the govt in making economic policy. - Will price bad bank assets cautiously; comfortable in finding investors
[13:27] {nemo} looks like we rip higher soon
[13:35] {Will49} Vad..is FCX developing a JBE?
01[13:36] {Threei}  .60 one was a bit better-looking, but yeah
[13:36] {Will49} tks
01[13:40] {Threei}  FOMC minutes at 2
01[14:37] {Threei}  OK, probably time for activity to resume in about 15 min
[14:38] {goryl} see u all tomorrow
01[14:38] {Threei}  morning was decent, aftrenoon is very dead
01[14:38] {Threei}  take care goryl
01[14:39] {Threei}  let's watch HPQ as long candidate
01[14:39] {Threei}  daily candle looks bottoming out, and should attract some buyers for overnight hold
01[14:40] {Threei}  we might be able to get some long play on their back
01[14:42] {Threei} Long Setup:  HPQ  .90 break
01[14:42] {Threei}  If holds  .85
01[14:42] {Threei}  let's keep it very tight for now
01[14:45] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .60 break
01[14:45] {Threei}  If holds  .50
01[15:02] {Threei}  step back, two steps forward
01[15:03] {Threei}  as long as not the other way around, fine with me
01[15:03] {Threei}  anyone's awake?
[15:03] {scottie} barely
01[15:03] {Threei}  undretand
[15:03] {Will49} we noobies are getting another lesson in patience
01[15:04] {Threei}  ummm... let me try again
01[15:04] {Threei}  understand
01[15:04] {Threei}  there... I can type the 3 syllabus word on secont attempt
[15:04] {scottie} improving lol
[15:04] {Will49} maybe it's just me who's impatient
01[15:05] {Threei}  we are getting there, will
01[15:05] {Threei}  look, merely 2 cents left to 1:1
[15:05] {Will49} one forward two back describes my trading pratice
[15:05] {Will49} practice
01[15:06] {Threei}  1 cent
01[15:06] {Threei}  yesss... 1:1
01[15:06] {Threei}  half out
01[15:06] {Threei}  now let's see if it can break .70
01[15:07] {Threei}  stop to .59 for the balance
01[15:07] {Threei}  cool beans
[15:08] {Will49} patience pays again
[15:08] {dptl} wheu...out has finaly +.41
[15:08] {dptl} hes
01[15:09] {Threei}  nice dp
[15:09] {Will49} way to go DP
[15:10] {dptl} ty....fixed the day a bit....see ya tomorrow all
[15:10] {scottie} gj dp
01[15:10] {Threei}  take care dp
[15:12] {robbers} see ya, dp.
[15:13] {Will49} I'm starting to see JBEs all over the place:)
01[15:13] {Threei}  and dead people?
[15:13] {Will49} :D
[15:14] {scottie} in hpq .905
01[15:15] {Threei}  FCX chews its way through to 1:2
01[15:15] {Threei}  let's make 1:3 final target
[15:15] {robbers} I'm out FCX, thanks Vad.
01[15:15] {Threei}  offer 1/4 at 1:2
01[15:15] {Threei}  welcome sir
01[15:18] {Threei}  37% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction
01[15:18] {Threei}  I swear it's those who think over the cliff is the right direction
[15:19] {scottie} out +.19 ty Vad
01[15:19] {Threei}  1:2 bay
01[15:19] {Threei}  baby too
01[15:19] {Threei}  1/4 more out
01[15:19] {Threei}  yw
[15:20] {Will49} out + 20 tks Vad
01[15:20] {Threei}  :)
[15:28] {Will49} is HPQ l still a play?
[15:29] {Will49} oops
01[15:29] {Threei}  i doubt it
[15:30] {scottie} I'm still in from .905, hard stop at .84, will see what happens
01[15:30] {Threei}  valid view
01[15:30] {Threei}  risk is small
[15:46] {dolores} ok guys take care see you tomorrow
01[15:47] {Threei}  take care dolores
[15:47] {dolores} thxs VAD
01[15:47] {Threei}  yw :)
[15:47] {Will49} Great day Vad
01[15:48] {Threei}  :)
01[15:55] {Threei}  OK guys, let's call it a fday
01[15:55] {Threei}  thank you all, have a great evening
01[15:55] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:56] {scottie} getting late, out breakeven
[15:56] {scottie} see you tomorrow
[15:56] {Will49} no risk no reward eh scottie?
[15:56] {Will49} good try though
[15:57] {scottie} Now it will probably go up

October-November 2012 Outlook: Trick or Treat

TradeTheNews October-November 2012 Outlook: Trick or Treat

In the last two months, central banks have delivered on promises of new stimulus, acting even more aggressively than some expectations. European Central Bank President Draghi managed to convince nearly all of his colleagues to support a new sovereign bond buying program (OMT) that skates along the edge of the ECB mandate, and Fed Chairman Bernanke has unleashed a third quantitative easing program that is coming to be called QE-infinity given its open ended structure. Throw in fresh stimulus from China and Japan, and this round of stimulus may be more impressive than the emergency measures taken to staunch the 2008 financial crisis. Markets have taken the hint and the risk-on trade has plowed ahead using each successive stimulus program to take a leg higher, supported by what some observers have called a "QE competition" among central banks.

Even though the central banks have thrown everything but the kitchen sink at the problem, it is still not clear that fiscal authorities will follow through with the necessary fiscal consolidation efforts. In Europe, all eyes are now on Spain, which has pledged more austerity measures, but has had some concerns about a loss of sovereignty that might be attached to accepting more help from its partners. Meanwhile the US has not even truly broached the idea of fiscal consolidation, as the national debt runs above $16T and the two political parties still refuse to compromise during the election season. China faces its own sort of uncertainties as the leadership prepares for its once-a-decade leadership transition just as the economic miracle seems to be settling into a slower growth phase. Events over the next two months could help settle some of these jitters headed into 2013, or they could exacerbate the uncertainty that government leaders have still failed to fully put to rest.

Putting on a Brave Face

The Fed has essentially gone all in: QE3 is the final quantitative easing program that the Fed will launch in this cycle because it is essentially limitless. The open ended nature of the new program allows the Fed to adjust the size and composition of the program as they see fit without going through the handwringing of launching a fresh QE program each time. Fed chieftains agree that this policy is focused squarely on the full employment mandate of the Fed by targeting MBS which can help improve the mortgage lending market, which in turn is hoped to keep the housing market recovery on track and undergird the overall economic recovery.

The labor market focus of QE3 comes with the caveat that the inflation mandate must also be maintained. As the program continues, this may become the central question of its viability: how much inflation is the Fed willing to tolerate in order to sustain a QE program to buy mortgages that only indirectly impacts the jobs market? The Fed doves have stated they see little inflation risk from QE3 and note that inflation is currently running below the 2% target range. Aside from the inflation risk of piling more assets on to the already $3T Fed balance sheet by "printing money," another potential downside is the risk of QE3 not moving the needle. Chairman Bernanke himself has already noted the diminishing returns seen from each successive QE program, so if QE3 (and the other global central bank QE programs for that matter) doesn't achieve the desired goal, the central bank will appear impotent, shaking market confidence.

Spooky Data

Lackluster data over the last several months have helped justify the central bank moves, especially the quicker than anticipated action by the Fed last month. The data clearly shows that the economy has been flagging for the last two quarters, and there has been little improvement in the latest reports. The September Chicago PMI showed contraction for the first time since 2009, and the most recent durable goods orders dropped by double digits, the biggest decline in over three years. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index has been running in negative territory for five straight months and has missed analyst expectations for five of the last six. To top it all off, the final reading of US Q2 GDP was slashed by four-tenths of a percent from the preliminary reading, taking it down to a mere 1.3%. The next couple of months of data will tell if the optimism indicated by the markets is warranted, while the tepid economic activity of the third quarter will be summarized in the Q3 GDP reading out on October 26.

The Fed's renewed focus on its employment mandate will add even more weight to the weekly and monthly jobs data. Some early momentum this year in US job creation has faltered in the last few months. Nonfarm payrolls data has been stagnant for the last five months, never managing a reading above 150 thousand net new jobs, which is seen as the bare minimum for working down the unemployment rate. As a result, unemployment has barely budged, holding between 8.1-8.3% all year. The next two monthly jobs reports have a lot riding on them. The Fed will be watching to see if QE3 is working and needs future adjustments when the data comes in on October 5 and then on November 2, just days ahead of the Presidential election. The future direction of US governance is also on the line: A couple of upside surprises on the employment data could propel President Obama to four more years in the White House.

Nothing to Fear but Fear Itself

Despite the pleas from the Fed for Congress to take action on the fiscal situation, it appears that nothing will be resolved before the November elections. After a series of gaffs by his opponent, President Obama has built a small lead in key swing states like Ohio and Florida. Romney is not out of the race, but there's a growing consensus that he will need to score big points in the upcoming debates (Oct 3, 16, 22, and VP debate Oct 11).

Even after the elections are over, it is not entirely clear that the partisan cloud covering Washington will dissipate. If President Obama is reelected, he and the House Republicans may enter another game of brinksmanship like the one that led to the fiscal cliff in the first place. A Romney win may cow Senate Democrats into going along with the GOP fiscal plan, or they may mirror the obstructionist tactics the House Republicans have perfected over the past two years. In either case, the question will be can the two parties come to a reasonable compromise on taxes and spending cuts in before the end of the year? The prospects of across the board tax hikes slamming the economy and the loathing most Congressmen feel for the 'sequester' budget cuts should propel them toward a deal, but in this unprecedented partisan atmosphere its still possible the two parties will wrestle each other over the cliff.

So far the markets have largely ignored the fiscal cliff, despite the media hype, with most analysts seeing little chance that Congress will let the country go over the edge. With Congress scheduled to be in session for only a few weeks in November and December, markets may react if politicians continue to drag their feet on a compromise after the election. Even then many analysts believe legislators could resort to kicking the can down the road one more time by putting another temporary extension in place to allow negotiations to continue into the first half of 2013.

Defense contractors may see the first impact of a potential fiscal cliff scenario, and many of big the military industrial firms have already created more flexible hiring and production scheduling to allow for the possibility. These firms may feel some relief if the Republican candidate is victorious in November, but some of Romney's policy stances may cause turmoil in other markets. Political promises are a dime a dozen, but Romney has said on day one as President he would name China a currency manipulator, which could quickly ratchet up tensions with America's biggest creditor.

In a very different version of the leadership selection process, China will start its once in a decade power transition in just a few weeks. On November 8, the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party will convene to name Xi Jinping the General Secretary of the Party, the first step in his ascendance to the premiership next March.

There have already been some bumps in the road, including the rumor of a military coup in March (quickly denied), followed by the very public ouster of a Xi rival. There were also some concerns raised when Mr. Xi disappeared from public view for two weeks in September, but he has since reappeared no worse for wear. These incidents accentuate the delicacy of such a transfer of power. Past generational leadership transitions have been impeded by internal power struggles, and have even created leadership gaps that allowed public demonstrations ( e.g. the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989), but the current Premier, Hu Jintao, managed a smooth transition when he took power ten years ago, and he appears ready to ensure a similar outcome this time around. As Mr. Xi steps into the spotlight, the outgoing General Secretary still deserves attention as he will issue a formal report to the party congress that will set the political and ideological tone for his successor.

A key topic of that report will surely be managing the continued growth of the economy that has shown signs of losing its vigor. Despite recent stimulus efforts there is still a bear loose in the China shop - Chinese manufacturing PMI readings have been indicating contraction for months and the latest official industrial production reading touched a 39-month low, helping extend the drop in the Shanghai index to three year lows. This may be the greatest test of the Chinese economic miracle since this long period of expansion began, so even more stimulus may be coming, including potential rate cuts.

The Chinese central bank (PBOC) has cut its reserve requirement ratio by 150 basis points in the last ten months, essentially releasing hundreds of billions of yuan for banks to invest into the economy, but the last cut was back in early May. Since then the PBOC has held off on further RRR cuts, holding it at 20%. Meanwhile the central bank has cuts its 1-year benchmark deposit and lending rates twice, in June and July.

With the economic engine still sputtering, many analysts believe that the situation is ripe for additional rate cuts, perhaps as soon as the first week of October when mainland China shuts down for its "Golden Week." Recently, some PBOC advisors have suggested the economy may not achieve the 7.5% GDP growth goal in the latter part of the year, a potential embarrassment for outgoing leader Hu. If the growth slips further it might even warrant the drastic step of shifting the official government monetary approach back to the "moderately loose" stance put in place in November 2008 that was revised to "prudent" in December 2010 (the official fiscal policy stance has remained "proactive" since 2008).

Another fly in the ointment for China is the recent unrest emblemized by a violent protest by workers at a Foxconn plant in southern China last month. In a protest of working conditions, 2,000 workers damaged buildings on the site before police forces swept in--another embarrassing incident for the manufacturer of the iPhone 5 on its launch date.

The flare up of China's territorial dispute over a cluster of islands claimed by Japan is also crimping the regional economy, as anti-Japan protests in China have resorted to vandalizing Japanese brand cars and stores. Numerous Japanese manufacturers including Toyota and Nissan have reduced production rates as Chinese demand for their products dries up, enough for the Japanese PM Noda to acknowledge that the dispute over the Senkaku Islands could further weaken his country's economy.

For its part, Japan has taken advantage of the post-tsunami reconstruction effort to shore up its economy. Yet the latest assessment of the Bank of Japan is that the pick-up in economic activity has paused due to slowing in the economies of its trading partners, and at its September meeting the central bank expanded its asset purchase program by ¥10.0T to a total of ¥80T.

The Devil's in the Details

In Europe, the new ECB bond buying program is contingent upon a sovereign nation asking for it to be implemented. The apparent guinea pig will be Spain, which has moved at a deliberate pace toward a bailout, jumping through all of the prescribed hoops along the way. The government has agreed to a bank bailout package and as of late September bank stress tests have determined that seven of Spain's banks will need €59.3B in recapitalizations. The finance ministry has indicated that those banks should be able to raise about a third of those funds on their own and thus appears ready to request about 40% of the €100B in funds set aside for Spanish banks by the EU. During this process, sovereign spreads have reacted favorably, taking the benchmark 10-year Spanish bond yield well below the dangerous levels above 7% where it stood before the bank bailout was arranged.

The next steps for Spain will be thornier. The government just announced a 2013 budget that continues the country's austerity push, much to the chagrin of many Spaniards who fear the 25% unemployment rate will get even worse. As the government passed the budget measures, protesters swarmed outside of the parliament building, some clashing with police in a scene very reminiscent of Athens earlier this year. But the additional austerity measures in the budget plan were welcomed almost unanimously by senior European officials who seemed to signal the proposal was enough to meet the conditions for a broader Spanish sovereign bailout.

Now the pressure is on Madrid to formally request a sovereign bailout. Initially the government seemed hesitant because of the "conditionality" attached to the ESM/OMT bond buying program which some officials feared might impinge upon Spain's sovereignty. These fears seem to have been allayed, and the formal request could be made sometime in October, which happens to coincide with the period when Spain has the heaviest turnover in its long term debt needs this year. There has also been widespread speculation that PM Rajoy wants to wait until after October 21 regional elections in Galacia and the Basque Country in order to minimize the political fallout from the Regions.

Even as Spain is under pressure to accept the full bailout program, the EU and EMU are working toward greater integration of their common institutions. French President Hollande recently stated that the summit on October 18-19 would demand "key and durable" decisions that would stabilize the Euro Zone. The meetings will include a review of progress made on the implementation of the Growth Compact as well as the single European banking supervision mechanism. Failure to show a unified front and genuine progress at this summit may be deemed as a failure.

The latest reports indicate that the aggressive timetable for the banking union may need to be pushed back a bit in order to get it right. There has also been some pushback from northern European countries about the mechanics of the bailout fund. Finland led a charge against excessive leveraging of the ESM which, for now at least, will keep any leveraging of the bailout fund at modest levels. In addition, there have been indications that Chancellor Merkel wants to get any new bailouts bundled together for a single parliamentary vote rather than risking the Bundestag rejecting one of a series of bailout votes - Spain, Cyprus, Greece - out of frustration. Politicians are also feeling growing public pressure against fiscal consolidation at the heart of the integration and bailout schemes. Anti-austerity protests have been commonplace in Athens, have been flaring up in Madrid, and just recently Paris has seen marchers out in force. The European public, who in the last couple years have voted out conservative parties in favor of the socialist candidates in nearly half of the Euro Zone, are now asking for less severe cutbacks. If these protests become widespread it may be difficult for leaders to ignore them, which could further jeopardize integration timetables.

Whistling Past the Graveyard

The aggressive nature of the simultaneous new global stimulus has thrown the risk-on trade into a higher orbit. Two months ago, gold was looking lackluster, but now the prospect of unlimited central bank interventions has sent the precious metal on a course back to $2,000 and perhaps all time highs. US equity markets have hit four year highs, and European bourses have seen a solid rebound. Uncertainty is clearly still a major factor, however, as US treasuries are still attracting a significant flow of funds.

Meanwhile the oil market has seen WTI crude futures touch the $100 mark again, despite Saudi Arabia given assurances of a well supplied market and the consistent rumors of an imminent release of oil from strategic petroleum reserves. The hurricane season, which officially ends November 30, has contributed little to the rise in oil prices, as only one storm (Isaac) has had any impact on Gulf of Mexico production so far.

It appears the boycott of Iranian oil has also had only a minor impact on oil prices as the stalemate over Tehran's nuclear program continues. One wildcard event that must be weighed is an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear program. An impassioned speech by the Israeli PM before the UN in September cemented his concept of a "red line" for Iran's nuclear program, a point that Mr. Netanyahu suggested may only be months away. It is conceivable that just after the US elections in November might be the opportune time for Israel to strike Iran, especially if Romney wins. Obama's lame duck period may be a window of opportunity for Israel to bomb Iran without the overt blessing of an American government in transition.

The commodity market action has been exaggerated by the across the board weakness in the dollar. Predictions from earlier this year of the euro dropping to parity with the dollar have fallen flat. The euro dipped to as low as $1.20 in July before ECB President Draghi famously said he would do whatever it takes to preserve the euro zone. Since that pronouncement, worries about the unraveling of the EMU have ebbed, and the anticipation and then the reality of QE3 have weakened the dollar back to $1.30 against the euro, about where it started this year. The pendulum may yet swing again, but for now it appears the weak dollar trend will continue into the year end.

A Bear in Bull's Clothing?

Now that the central banks have done everything they can to calm and stimulate markets, what's next? If the stimulus gives fiscal authorities the room they need to make sensible economic adjustments, the global economy could shake off funk that has held it back for the last four years. But if all this stimulus fails to keep markets aloft, and leaders fail to make progress on creating smarter, leaner government, uncertainty could reassert itself.

For now, the risk-on sentiment has the central bank safety net underneath it, so it appears current market trends can continue for some time, even with the upcoming third quarter earnings reporting season expected to be ugly. Yet as 2012 races toward its end, fears of all the missteps governments could make-from Congress playing chicken with the fiscal cliff, to subtle power struggles in China, to sovereignty issues unsteadying Europe's integration process-still have the potential to dent sentiment. Any such political scares could put the safety net to the test, stretching it to a point where a deeper seated concern must be considered. Namely, with the central banks now essentially all in, what more can they do if markets lose confidence again?



CALENDAR

October
1: Euro Zone Unemployment Rate; US ISM Manufacturing; National Golden Week in China
3: Minutes of Sept FOMC meeting; ISM Non-Manufacturing
4: ECB policy statement; BOE policy statement; BOJ policy statement
5: US Payrolls and Unemployment

8: China GDP and CPI; German Industrial Production; Eurogroup meetings
9: China Trade Balance; ECOFIN meetings
11: US Trade Balance
12: US PPI; Prelim University of Michigan Confidence

15: US Retail Sales; BOE Inflation Letter (tentative)
16: German ZEW Sentiment; US CPI
18: Philadelphia Fed Index; EU summit (Oct 18-19)
19: US Existing Home Sales

23: China HSBC Flash PMI
24: FOMC policy statement; US New Home Sales; German Ifo Business Climate; European Flash Manufacturing PMIs
25: US Durable Goods Orders
26: US Advance Q3 GDP (1st reading); UK Q3 GDP

29: BOJ Policy Statement (tentative)
30: US Consumer Confidence; BOJ Outlook Report
31: Euro Zone Unemployment; China Manufacturing PMI

November
1: US ISM Manufacturing
2: US Payrolls and Unemployment

5: US ISM Non-Manufacturing
6: US Election Day; Japan Current Account; German Factory Orders
7: Euro Zone Retail Sales; China CPI
8: China National Party Congress; ECB policy statement; BOE policy statement; US Trade Balance; China Trade Balance (tentative)

11: Japan Q3 GDP
12: Minutes of the Oct FOMC meeting; Eurogroup meetings
13: German ZEW Sentiment; Eurogroup meetings
14: US Retail Sales; US PPI; BOE Inflation Report
15: US CPI; US Philadelphia Fed; Europe Prelim Q3 GDP readings (by country)
16: US UoM Prelim Confidence

19: US Existing Home Sales; Japan Policy Statement
21: German Ifo Business Climate; China HSBC Flash PMI
22: German Flash PMI

27: US Durable Goods Orders; US Consumer Confidence
28: US New Home Sales
29: US Q3 Prelim GDP (2nd reading)
30: China Manufacturing PMI




TradeTheNews

Oct 3 2012

First Catch of the Day upon return from the conference, had to do it with a bang. 1:5 qualifies as such, IMO

A few more good trades and particularly two nice short trades on HPQ made the day solid black.


Session Time: Wed Oct 03 00:00:00 2012
[08:17] {nemo} Mmmmhhh subdued so far on the ADP report
[08:30] {nemo} hey dp 32 level srpt
[08:30] {nemo} spread tightened up here
[09:00] {goryl} gm
01[09:00] {Threei}  morning goryl
[09:04] {scottie} GOOD MORNING
01[09:04] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:04] {scottie} I mean good morning
01[09:04] {Threei}  I nearly fell off my chair
[09:04] {goryl} Vad, do you use NASDAQ as the Route in Level II?
01[09:04] {Threei}  most often, yes
01[09:05] {Threei}  if you want to short a stock that has dropped significantly already, better use ARCA
[09:05] {goryl} ok
[09:05] {goryl} thanks
01[09:05] {Threei}  make sure all route out boxes are checked
[09:06] {goryl} got it:)
[09:06] {dino} gm
01[09:06] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:07] {cc_8} Command Security Corporation (NYSE: MOC) (the “Company”) announced the . resignation of Martin C.
[09:08] {goryl} how do u close windows in Laser? delete doesn't work..
[09:08] {cc_8} ctrl+f4
[09:08] {cc_8} or file/close
01[09:08] {Threei}  hehe... this is great mystery of Laser
[09:09] {goryl} awesome, that was really annoying:)
[09:14] {dolores} hello GM
01[09:14] {Threei}  dolores :)
[09:16] {Beau} gm
01[09:16] {Threei}  beau :)
01[09:16] {Threei}  are we making bets on who will mop the floor with whom today in the debate?
[09:18] {nemo} Obama much better public speaker
[09:18] {nemo} I watched Kennedy wipe the floor with Romney
01[09:18] {Threei}  no doubt
[09:19] {nemo} oil down hard...mmmmhhhhh
[09:20] {ese} gm
01[09:20] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:20] {ese} hey vad
[09:20] {Will49} GM
01[09:20] {Threei}  will :)
[09:20] {ese} will
[09:21] {Will49} Hi E
[09:22] {nemo} I know this is going to sound strange coming from me, but...that tv series Once Upon A Time.  They did a really good job with that
[09:22] {ese} haven't watched tv in about since 16 years since the kids were born..........whats it about
[09:22] {nemo} I watch it on Netflix
01[09:23] {Threei}  too childish to me... looked at it when it started, couldn't get past 2nd episode
[09:23] {nemo} It's an interesting weaving of classic old fairy tales into modern day
[09:23] {nemo} Actually Vad, I can see that happening with you
[09:23] {nemo} Interesting premise
01[09:24] {Threei}  I liked the idea during preview, but actual implementation felt that it was just done for kids
[09:24] {nemo} Funny, can you tell I trade...I went to open the netflix site and I typed "NFLX.com" in the browser window
01[09:24] {Threei}  lol
[09:25] {dino} good show nemo
[09:26] {nemo} eye of the beholder of course
01[09:29] {Threei}  FCX long on pullback is first idea
01[09:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .90 break hl
01[09:31] {Threei}  change to .85
01[09:31] {Threei}  If holds  .75
01[09:32] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:33] {nemo} the adp report wasn't bought this morning
01[09:34] {Threei}  no go
01[09:38] {Threei} Short Setup: MOS  .35 break
01[09:39] {Threei}  If holds  .45
[09:39] {nemo} 54.60 area if it breaks 55
01[09:40] {Threei}  1:1
[09:40] {dino} clb smr l .80
[09:41] {nemo} coh, below .75 short
[09:41] {nemo} stop above .80
01[09:41] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .65 break
01[09:42] {Threei}  If holds  .75
01[09:43] {Threei}  stop to .71
[09:43] {nemo} half .61
[09:44] {dino} gj
[09:45] {nemo} stop to .65ish
[09:45] {nemo} market looks ready to turn
01[09:45] {Threei}  MOS 1:2
01[09:45] {Threei}  1/4 out
01[09:45] {Threei}  will try to trail last part
01[09:46] {Threei}  that 55 support is very lucrative to break
[09:46] {nemo} yep
01[09:46] {Threei}  1:3
[09:46] {nemo} 44.60ish
01[09:46] {Threei}  stop .26
[09:47] {nemo} out coh
01[09:47] {Threei}  FCX 1:1
01[09:48] {Threei}  stop to .66 for the balance
01[09:48] {Threei}  MOS stop to .21
[09:49] {nemo} ddd
[09:49] {nemo} sorry
01[09:49] {Threei}  I think you tried to say "d-d-dddie, MOS"
01[09:50] {Threei}  which it dddoes
01[09:50] {Threei}  stop to .16
[09:50] {thomcbell} im still liking this gm long
01[09:51] {Threei}  me too...
01[09:51] {Threei}  MOS at 1:4
01[09:51] {Threei}  not sure, to cover or try for nemo's target
01[09:51] {Threei}  market is still weak
[09:51] {nemo} that's the 200 SMA
01[09:51] {Threei}  let's try
[09:51] {nemo} it's gonna bounce hard there
01[09:51] {Threei}  stop to .11
[09:52] {nemo} trying to defend here
[09:52] {nemo} hidden buyer
01[09:52] {Threei}  1:5
[09:53] {nemo} yeah baby
[09:53] {nemo} partial here if you have extra
[09:53] {nemo} else...Neil Diamond
01[09:53] {Threei}  just 300 left
[09:53] {nemo} careful, market getting to bounce point
01[09:54] {Threei}  OK, half of balance out
01[09:54] {Threei}  1/8, lol
[09:54] {nemo} used to do those in a night
[09:54] {nemo} oh
[09:54] {nemo} sorry
01[09:54] {Threei}  fraction times are back? miss those 1/256
[09:55] {nemo} long tna .51 small
[09:55] {nemo} stop under .40
[09:55] {nemo} might be a tad premature
[09:56] {nemo} out
01[09:56] {Threei}  stop is .96 now
[09:56] {nemo} that tail at the whole
[09:58] {dino} ll sm l .90
01[09:58] {Threei}  over and out
[09:59] {nemo} not getting capitualtion volume spy
[09:59] {nemo} sneaky level
[09:59] {nemo} ism number
[09:59] {nemo} forgot about that
[09:59] {nemo} good numbers
[10:00] {nemo} beat 55.1 vs 53.5
[10:00] {nemo} now, let
[10:00] {nemo} s see if it gets bought
[10:00] {nemo} jobs weren't
[10:01] {nemo} this is interesting
[10:02] {nemo} whoa...good news sold
[10:02] {dino} fast fall
[10:02] {nemo} Here comes ANARCHY!!!! Yahooooooooo
[10:03] {dptl} gm
01[10:03] {Threei}  dp :)
[10:03] {nemo} o.k. flyer watching LEN for a short
[10:03] {nemo} ahhh, the old shock the excrement out of them drop and then BTFD!
[10:04] {ese} that was interesting.....quick up quick dive........slow up here L AIG .51
[10:05] {nemo} oil was down pretty healthy today pre market, that was a tell
[10:06] {nemo} srpt going for pre market highs
01[10:08] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/IrwiA
[10:09] {ese} something is outta wack somewhere.........bernakers "negative negative negative negative etc etc"..news "positive positive positive etc etc " for at least the last 2 maybe 3 months.......feels like a " you can fool some of the people some of the time but"............financial news ain't jivin with what he has to say
[10:09] {thomcbell} gm long setup - 23.86 break if holding 23.80
01[10:10] {Threei}  I think you misread the whole thing, ese
[10:10] {nemo} yep
[10:10] {ese} out 1/2 wig ..72 +.21  1k to go
01[10:10] {Threei}  there is no actual positive news in economy,
01[10:10] {Threei}  there is positive numbers crerated by Bernanke's money injections
[10:10] {nemo} market a discounting mechanism
[10:10] {ese} all I know is that i'm makin money doing everthing opposite he says
[10:11] {nemo} it's looking at the fiscal "cliff"
01[10:11] {Threei}  which he does because he a) sees negatives and b) thinks money injections fix those negatives
[10:11] {dino} inflate it away ese, print print print
01[10:11] {Threei}  and you are making money in the MARKET
[10:11] {cc_8} Hearing Chatter Apple in Talks to Buy Pandora
01[10:11] {Threei}  which has very little to do with actual economy and everything to do with his money injections
[10:11] {ese} aig stop balance .80
01[10:11] {Threei}  so it works like this for you:
01[10:12] {Threei}  he says things are bad,
01[10:12] {Threei}  market knows it means abother money injections and goes up,
01[10:12] {Threei}  you make money.
01[10:12] {Threei}  see the logic?
[10:12] {ese} to .85
[10:12] {dino} not bad as in bad, but bad as in good
01[10:13] {Threei}  exactly
01[10:13] {Threei}  the worse ther better
[10:13] {nemo} look srpt dino
[10:13] {dino} crazy
[10:13] {nemo} was watching premarket, 36 was the high
[10:13] {ese} stopped balance wig .85 +.34...........thanks ladies and gents been nice workin with ya.......done for the day cya tomorrow
01[10:14] {Threei}  ese
[10:14] {nemo} 40 then 42 next levels
[10:14] {ese} not wig ...aig
01[10:14] {Threei}  before leaving, read the above
[10:14] {ese} ok
[10:14] {dino} gj ese
[10:14] {nemo} nflx
[10:14] {nemo} sorry
[10:14] {ese} tks
[10:14] {dino} lqdt sm l .75
[10:15] {nemo} GS and oil weak
[10:15] {ese} ok i see that logic
[10:16] {ese} been a nice 500 dollar day..........cya tomorrow
01[10:16] {Threei}  and he complains about something?
[10:17] {dino} theres 42
01[10:17] {Threei}  true resident of Victoria... they have the best climate in the country and whine about it all the time
[10:17] {ese} lol
[10:17] {nemo} wow srpt
01[10:17] {Threei}  :)
[10:18] {Will49} hey.. watch it Vad
[10:18] {ese} and I'll whine more if the shiskabob party is cancelled
01[10:18] {Threei}  hehe
[10:18] {ese} cya
01[10:18] {Threei}  take care
[10:18] {Will49} good job E
[10:18] {nemo} A pal offesr this Romney zinger: "Don't worry, Mr. President, if I am elected, I won't blame you for anything that happens during my term"
01[10:18] {Threei}  my favorite is:
01[10:19] {Threei}  is Obama wins, just imagine a mess he inherits this time
01[10:19] {Threei}  is = if
[10:19] {dino} lol
01[10:19] {Threei}  that was very strange drop and climb
[10:19] {dptl} coh .80 l?
01[10:20] {Threei}  both totally out of whack, not in tune woth anything on the chart
[10:20] {dino} out ll .29, +.39
01[10:21] {Threei}  COH, I'd rewally prefer a pullback
[10:24] {dptl} wlp .20 s?
01[10:25] {Threei}  probably
[10:27] {dptl} invalidated wlp
[10:31] {dptl} may be valid again
[10:32] {dptl} sigh not in a short list
[10:33] {dino} ocn sm s .00
01[10:36] {Threei} Long Setup:  CLF  38 break
[10:38] {dino} ocn stop -.26
[10:38] {dptl} in .01
[10:39] {dino} kra sm l .25
[10:40] {nemo} tol
01[10:40] {Threei}  no go
[10:40] {dptl} stopped
[10:40] {nemo} it'll test .55 area
[10:45] {nemo} hey Vad, see where MOS bottomed?
[10:45] {nemo} whish I had been paying attention
01[10:45] {Threei}  yup
[10:46] {nemo} that was a gimmee
[10:46] {dino} ocn s .49
[10:49] {dino} cov ocn .30, +.19
[10:54] {dptl} pm .30 l?
01[10:54] {Threei}  looks like
[10:57] {dptl} got .32
[10:58] {thomcbell} i flattened gm for a 0.02 cent  loss
[10:59] {thomcbell} time stop
[11:01] {dino} ocn sm s .00
[11:03] {dino} kra stop -.23
[11:05] {dolores} POT?
[11:05] {nemo} lulu
01[11:06] {Threei}  .70 break probably worth a try on POT
01[11:07] {Threei}  frikin CLF rinsed
[11:07] {dino} cov ocn .70, +.30
[11:08] {nemo} lulu short below .80
[11:09] {nemo} if it stays below .90
[11:10] {dptl} half out pm
01[11:10] {Threei}  good one
[11:10] {dptl} ty
[11:12] {dptl} out .59
[11:12] {dino} kra l .98
01[11:12] {Threei}  POT looks ready
[11:13] {scottie} good job dp
[11:13] {dptl} ty
01[11:24] {Threei}  invalid
[11:25] {dolores} POT not following the market or the other commodities
[11:28] {dino} following drugs
[11:30] {dino} \ocn sm s .65
01[11:33] {Threei}  let's change our view on it
01[11:33] {Threei} Short Setup: POT  .50 break
[11:35] {nemo} mon recovering market up on stong news...hehehehehe
[11:38] {dino} ocn stop -.18
[11:40] {thomcbell} gm gimme a break
[11:40] {thomcbell} lol
[11:42] {nemo} usg has 24% short interest
[11:46] {nemo} that was an interesting move
01[11:47] {Threei}  VRNG Hearing company has received favorable court ruling on a motion in one of its ongoing patent cases
[11:49] {dino} ocn s .55
01[11:51] {Threei} Short Setup: HPQ  .40 break
01[11:52] {Threei}  If holds  .50
01[11:52] {Threei}  1:1
[11:53] {dino} ocn to .35
01[11:54] {Threei}  1:2
[11:56] {nemo} just grinding higher
[11:56] {dino} cov ocn +.20
[11:57] {dptl} wlp .60 l?
01[11:57] {Threei}  yup
[11:58] {dptl} stop would  be .55 or .50?
01[11:58] {Threei}  .50
[11:58] {dptl} ok ty
[11:59] {dino} asps smr s .42
[12:03] {dptl} vlo .76 l?
01[12:04] {Threei}  1:3, out
01[12:05] {Threei}  yup, same setup as WLP
[12:11] {dptl} stop wlp
01[12:22] {Threei}  VLO 1:1
[12:24] {dino} pcrx
[12:24] {robbers} Great day, catch you guys later.  Thanks.
01[12:25] {Threei}  take care robbers
[12:29] {dptl} jcp .15 l?
01[12:30] {Threei}  nah
[12:34] {thomcbell} come on Vad -
[12:34] {thomcbell} gm
[12:34] {thomcbell} restless
01[12:34] {Threei}  I liked it long earlier
[12:35] {thomcbell} i had the right set up never got stopped by the book - but sold it cause it was taking to long
01[12:38] {Threei}  well... tnat's impatience talking
01[12:38] {Threei}  who said money must bve made quickly? :)
[12:46] {goryl} Vad, how do u enable the fast sell feature in Laser?
01[12:49] {Threei}  click Trade in Menu
01[12:49] {Threei}  in dropdown menu, theree is a line Fast Sell, check it
[12:49] {goryl} its greyed out, maybe because its a demo??
01[12:50] {Threei}  click on Level 2 window dirsat
01[12:50] {Threei}  then on menu
01[12:50] {Threei}  first
[12:52] {goryl} hmm
[12:53] {dptl} what do you think about gild , Vad?
01[12:54] {Threei}  goryl, make sure Level II execution mode is also checked
01[12:55] {Threei}  not sure dp
01[12:55] {Threei}  a bit too slow
[12:55] {dptl} ok
[12:56] {goryl} ok, it is
[13:07] {dino} pssi drop
[13:08] {dino} sm l .35
[13:09] {dino} out .95, +.60
[13:17] {dptl} should of listened you with gild stopped out
01[13:17] {Threei}  nobody ever listens to me
01[13:18] {Threei}  why would you
[13:18] {nemo} srpt sheesh
[13:22] {dptl} pxp .50 s?
01[13:23] {Threei}  if willing to take 506 cents scalp
01[13:23] {Threei}  5-6
[13:23] {dptl} nah..need more then that
01[13:29] {Threei}  well... it had a bit more
[13:29] {dptl} :)
[13:29] {dptl} lcc?
[13:30] {dptl} clf .50 l?
01[13:31] {Threei}  I think so
[13:33] {dptl} clf invalidated
[13:33] {dptl} lcc .60 s?
01[13:35] {Threei}  if market drops with gusto, yes
01[13:38] {Threei}  huh
01[13:38] {Threei}  Wednesday, October 03, 2012 13:34:15 (ES) Spain Econ Min de Guindos: IMF will say yields on Spanish debt should be lower**Recall that German and Spanish finance ministers are meeting in Madrid today as part of a routine visit
01[13:38] {Threei}  shrug
[13:39] {Will49} yawn
01[13:40] {Threei}  t5his one is more negative but it was a while ago:
01[13:40] {Threei}  (GR) Greece Fin Min Stournaras: Gap with Troika over cuts remains fairly large, working hard to reach a compromise ahead of the eurogroup meeting- Follow up: Troika sees Greece 2013 GDP -5% **Note that earlier today, a Greek press report said that IMF said to disagree with Greece's 2013 GDP forecast of -3.8%, see -4.5% as more realistic; deal will not likely be reached before summit. On Oct 2nd Greece Finance Minister Stournaras said he was uncertain whether or not a deal with Troika can be reached before the EU summit.
[13:42] {dptl} fdo .10 s?
01[13:42] {Threei}  yup
01[13:42] {Threei} Short Setup: POT  .35 break
01[13:48] {Threei}  Invalidated
[13:50] {dptl} jeez...stopped fdo
[13:50] {nemo} woof
[13:51] {dptl} not my day
06[13:52] * nemo hands dp the vaseline
[13:53] {dptl} thanx man
06[13:54] * nemo hands dp Grey Goose
[13:54] {Will49} that would sting
[13:54] {nemo} that's for anesthesia
[13:55] {Will49} ooops
[13:59] {dptl} it's here again fdo
01[13:59] {Threei}  (ES) Germany Fin Min reiterates Spain unlikely to need a bailout
01[13:59] {Threei}  yeah yeah
[14:00] {dptl} wlt .25 s?
01[14:01] {Threei}  yup
[14:03] {dptl} in
[14:04] {nemo} wow, going for the break on the daily
[14:09] {nemo} cog
[14:11] {nemo} tna worth a try here
[14:13] {dolores} HPQ hammered again  breaking lows
[14:13] {goryl} see u all tomorrow
01[14:13] {Threei}  take care goryl
[14:15] {dptl} fslr .90 s?
[14:16] {dptl} not shortable
[14:20] {Will49} tks dp wlt .10
[14:20] {dptl} yw i am still in
[14:22] {Will49} I bow to you
[14:23] {dptl} out some  stop to .26
[14:25] {dptl} hopefully will fix a day a bit
01[14:26] {Threei}  you ignored my trades or what
01[14:26] {Threei}  they weren't nearly as bad as you make the day sound
[14:27] {dptl} no its all my trades Vad
[14:28] {dptl} was't in morning ..mised mos you know
[14:28] {Will49} nice call on WLT dp
01[14:28] {Threei}  (ES) Germany Fin Min reiterates Spain unlikely to need a bailout, though Germany could be open to supporting an aid program if necessary - Japan press- Decision will come after a close examination of Spain's latest fiscal consolidation proposals. **NOTE: 9/21: (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble: Spain does not need an aid program from the ESM. Germany has more to lose from an EMU failure. - 10/3: Finland PM Katainen: Spain will not require a full bailout - French press
01[14:29] {Threei}  ok... let's all repeat 5 times: Spoain needs no bailout
[14:29] {nemo} puke
[14:29] {nemo} gag
01[14:29] {Threei}  there... all better
[14:29] {dino} protest too much
[14:29] {Will49} yada yada yada
01[14:29] {Threei}  if this works, I found solution to world hunger
01[14:29] {Threei}  say "food" 5 times, and you are full
01[14:29] {Threei}  say "vodka" 5 times and you are drunk
[14:30] {nemo} I prefer a few strategically detonated nuclear warheads
[14:31] {nemo} srpt...
[14:31] {nemo} was that harsh?
[14:33] {dino} expected
[14:33] {nemo} won't be much suffering
[14:33] {nemo} dead=good
[14:33] {nemo} half dead=not so good
[14:34] {Will49} dead people tend not to suffer
[14:35] {dptl} out
[14:36] {dptl} cog .50 s?
[14:39] {dptl} in .49
[14:43] {nemo} small long tna stop under .90
[14:45] {nemo} oy vey
[14:51] {robbers} Thanks, dp!
[14:52] {Will49} tks again dp
[14:53] {dolores} wow what was that TNA 20 cents down in 2 secs
[14:58] {nemo} happens
[14:59] {dptl} out .26 cog
[14:59] {Will49} goo one dp
[14:59] {Will49} good
[14:59] {dptl} thanx
[15:04] {nemo} little bounce here me thinks
[15:07] {nemo} this should be it
[15:07] {dolores} nemo you buying TNA?
[15:08] {nemo} yeah
[15:08] {dolores} where?
[15:08] {nemo} iwm bottomed at S1 FAS bottomed at vwap
[15:08] {nemo} .50
[15:08] {nemo} stop under the low
[15:09] {nemo} seems I stopped it
[15:10] {dolores} this  market not very clear
[15:10] {nemo} yeah, there wasn't much volume at these levels
[15:11] {nemo} IWM drops this it tests the lows
[15:11] {dptl} lyb db?
[15:12] {nemo} mmmhhh, didn't hit my offer
[15:14] {nemo} next traget is the wholeish
[15:14] {nemo} spy gonna hesitate at .80
[15:14] {nemo} .88
[15:15] {nemo} maybe not
[15:15] {nemo} I'm ok with being wrong that way
[15:15] {nemo} offering .95 next bit
[15:17] {nemo} stop under .60
01[15:19] {Threei} Short Setup: HPQ  .14 break
01[15:19] {Threei}  If holds  .20
[15:21] {dptl} can't
01[15:21] {Threei}  what's it say?
[15:21] {dptl} error 3599
[15:22] {dptl} did you get it?
01[15:23] {Threei}  ARCA, yes
[15:23] {dptl} hmm
[15:23] {dptl} will try next time
01[15:24] {Threei}  half out here
[15:24] {dptl} nice
[15:26] {nemo} another partial, looking for 62.25
[15:28] {robbers} Out, thanks.
01[15:28] {Threei}  1/4 more out
01[15:28] {Threei}  yw
[15:30] {nemo} vad you already published the log?
01[15:31] {Threei}  just catch of the day part, not the room log
[15:31] {nemo} October Outlook
01[15:31] {Threei}  yes
01[15:31] {Threei}  http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2012/10/october-november-2012-outlook-trick-or.html
[15:32] {nemo} mmhhh stop under .70
[15:32] {nemo} for last
[15:32] {nemo} this oil drop is puzzling
[15:33] {nemo} stop now .74
01[15:33] {Threei}  pre-debate orchestration?
[15:34] {nemo} yahoo, my new treestand came
[15:34] {robbers} I asked the other day if the drop might be partially political.  One thing's for sure, if Obama has any leverage, he'd "encourage" the drop before the election.
01[15:35] {Threei}  of coursxe... why wouldn't he
[15:36] {robbers} Question is, does the White House actually have influence.  I believe it does.  Ask Dick Cheney.
01[15:41] {Threei}  die HPQ
01[15:41] {Threei}  klose that .90
01[15:42] {Threei}  good boy
[15:43] {dptl} nice trade Vad
01[15:43] {Threei}  ty
01[15:43] {Threei}  OK, my a$$ is out
01[15:44] {Threei}  happy to finish day on such note
01[15:44] {Threei}  thank you all, have a great evening
[15:44] {nemo} out at ..09 on tna
01[15:44] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:44] {robbers} TY!
[15:44] {dptl} gn all
[15:44] {robbers} gn
[15:45] {dolores} gn guys
[15:45] {dolores} thank you

Oct 2 2012

Very nice start to October, despite severe jet lag. Trade after trade just worked.

Session Time: Tue Oct 02 00:00:00 2012
[07:49] {nemo} That slacker Vad show up yet?
01[08:50] {Threei}  ummm.... yes....
01[08:50] {Threei}  although with this jerking time zones around, hard to twll
[08:58] {goryl} gm and welcome back
01[09:01] {Threei}  morning, thank you
[09:02] {jackharry} good morning
01[09:02] {Threei}  jack :)
[09:05] {scottie} GM
01[09:05] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:06] {scottie} How was the conference ?
01[09:07] {Threei}  conference itself, great. Had real fun speaking, social finctions before and after were great too
01[09:07] {Threei}  might be a bit more careful with icy cold Sleeman the night before speaking next time,
01[09:08] {Threei}  for a few min after waking up it felt like I lost my voice, lol
01[09:08] {Threei}  I am not a big fan of Toronto though, something in that city disagees with me
01[09:09] {Threei}  and quick time zone change back and forth is a bitch
[09:09] {scottie} Too far from the ocean
01[09:09] {Threei}  Montreal however was absolutely fantastic
[09:09] {dino} gm
01[09:09] {Threei}  love that city
01[09:09] {Threei}  dino :)
01[09:10] {Threei}  good thing I don't live there, or I would be twice the size in a hurry, lol
01[09:10] {Threei}  what with amazingly tasty things everywhere
[09:10] {scottie} french cuisine, lol
01[09:10] {Threei}  montreal smoked meat, mama mia
01[09:11] {Threei}  waiter was very skeptical when I ordered large dish
01[09:12] {Threei}  and very respectful when came back in 20 min
[09:13] {scottie} My step daughter lives in Montreal and brings me some fresh smoked meat everytime she comes to visit, mmmmmm.
01[09:13] {Threei}  :)
[09:14] {Beau} gm
01[09:14] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:15] {Beau} welcome back vad
[09:16] {robbers} Glad to have you back, Vad.
[09:16] {Beau} hope lecture went well
01[09:16] {Threei}  thanks guys
01[09:16] {Threei}  very
01[09:17] {Threei}  firast exclamation I heard after finishing was, "that alone was worth the price of adnmission"
01[09:17] {Threei}  and judging by the nimber of drinks offered during pub night later, it was sincere, lol
[09:20] {Will49} Good Morning
01[09:20] {Threei}  will :)
[09:20] {Will49} Back safe I see
01[09:21] {Threei}  yes... deeply asleep though
[09:24] {cipher} gm
01[09:25] {Threei}  cipher :)
01[09:25] {Threei}  no clear feel for the opening yet
01[09:28] {Threei}  FCX looks rather weak
01[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .25 break hl
01[09:33] {Threei}  If holds  .32
01[09:33] {Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:34] {Threei}  valid again
01[09:34] {Threei}  with .35 as a stop level
01[09:37] {Threei}  stop to .31
01[09:37] {Threei}  1:1
01[09:37] {Threei}  1:2, out
[09:38] {scottie} +.10 ty
[09:38] {Will49} good start
01[09:38] {Threei}  :)
[09:38] {robbers} no hangover for Vad.
01[09:38] {Threei}  but jet lag is real bitch
[09:38] {thomcbell} good one vad
01[09:38] {Threei}  ty
01[09:39] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  46 break hl
01[09:39] {Threei}  If holds  .10
01[09:39] {Threei}  ummm
01[09:39] {Threei}  1:1
01[09:40] {Threei}  don't know about you but I couldn't get it
[09:40] {scottie} not here
[09:40] {Will49} nor me
[09:40] {robbers} nope.
01[09:40] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .95 break
01[09:41] {Threei}  stop .04
01[09:42] {Threei}  1:1
01[09:43] {Threei} Long Setup:  CX  40 break hl
01[09:43] {Threei}  FCX
01[09:43] {Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:44] {Threei}  1:1
[09:45] {goryl} Vad's on fire again:)
[09:45] {robbers} fantastic trading, worth the price of admission.
01[09:45] {Threei}  hehe...
[09:45] {dino} pbm?
01[09:46] {Threei}  Pacific Booker Minerals (US Ticker: PBM) trades lower after British Columbia govt yesterday rejected its plan for a copper and gold mine at Morrison Lake due to environmental threat to salmon in the Skeena River- The lake is at the headwaters of the Skeena River, which produces BC's second-largest sockeye salmon run.
[09:47] {thomcbell} slw diverging from gdx again
[09:47] {thomcbell} both down but slw leading
01[09:47] {Threei}  half here still
01[09:47] {Threei}  didn't get hit at 1:2
[09:49] {dino} thx vad
01[09:51] {Threei}  SLW 1:2, out
[09:51] {Will49} welcome home
01[09:51] {Threei}  :)
01[09:52] {Threei}  oh, and btw... as far as attention-getters go, it does wonders to your presentation to begin it woth words "the world is full idiots"
[09:52] {dolores} hi there welcome
01[09:52] {Threei}  hi' dolores
[09:52] {Will49} you actually said that?
01[09:52] {Threei}  yes
01[09:53] {Threei}  missed couple nice winners, dolores
[09:53] {Will49} hope the attendees didn't take it personally
[09:54] {dolores} pity
01[09:55] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .10 break hl
01[09:55] {Threei}  If holds  .20
[09:57] {dino} clb smr l .24 gappy
[09:58] {dino} pcs spike
01[09:59] {Threei}  1:1
01[09:59] {Threei}  1:2, out
[10:00] {scottie} +.17 ty Vad
01[10:00] {Threei}  what is it, fish in a barrel day?
01[10:00] {Threei}  yw
[10:01] {Will49} Yipee
[10:01] {nemo} wow that's a first...
[10:01] {nemo} I'm eating tortilla chips, frickin' rabbit jumps up in my lap
01[10:01] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .60 break
01[10:02] {Threei}  let's keep .66 stop
01[10:02] {Threei}  don't want to give it full room
01[10:03] {Threei}  bid half around .52
01[10:03] {Threei}  hit
01[10:03] {Threei}  stop .61
[10:04] {dptl} gm
01[10:04] {Threei}  out
01[10:04] {Threei}  .42
01[10:04] {Threei}  dp :)
06[10:04] * Threei sings "fiiish in a baaaarel" to the tune of "smoke on the water"
[10:04] {robbers} What's next, Vad, a stock with the symbol: FISH ?
[10:04] {scottie} out .48 +.12 tks Vad (again)
01[10:04] {Threei}  lol
01[10:04] {Threei}  yw
[10:05] {Will49} we should get you jet-lagged once a week
01[10:06] {Threei}  life will be fiery... and very short, lol
[10:10] {nemo} ilmn in reshort area
[10:10] {dptl} pay .80 short?
01[10:12] {Threei}  can't tell, trades strangely a bit
[10:12] {nemo} fits dp
[10:13] {dptl} invalidated anyway
[10:13] {nemo} mos
[10:13] {nemo} ilmn
[10:14] {nemo} sorry
01[10:14] {Threei} Long Setup:  MON  .20 break
01[10:14] {Threei}  aww, late
01[10:14] {Threei}  ok, let's let it go
01[10:14] {Threei}  with 4 for 4, no need to chase
[10:14] {dptl} con .05 ? long
[10:15] {Will49} is there ever a need to chase?
[10:15] {dptl} coh
[10:15] {nemo} short
[10:15] {nemo} stop needs to be .15 though
[10:15] {nemo} kors
[10:15] {nemo} sorry
[10:17] {Will49} dp one nemo 0
[10:17] {dptl} half out coh
[10:18] {Will49} but who's keeping score?
[10:18] {nemo} well, it's right at my stop
[10:19] {nemo} cat
[10:25] {dptl} out some more coh
01[10:25] {Threei}  wtg
[10:25] {robbers} nice, dp
[10:26] {dptl} ty
[10:26] {dptl} stop under .10 for last piece
[10:29] {nemo} boy does wlp have a bid under it
[10:30] {nemo} should see resistance by .30 though
[10:31] {dptl} stop to .15 coh
[10:32] {nemo} pivot is .13 dp
[10:32] {dptl} ye i see that
01[10:32] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .30 break hl
01[10:32] {Threei}  If holds  .20
[10:32] {dptl} wanna see if it gets to .50
01[10:33] {Threei}  Invalidated
[10:33] {nemo} after that is .80 area
[10:33] {dptl} yep
[10:34] {nemo} cog
[10:34] {scottie} mos l 56 ?
[10:35] {nemo} .15-.20 area resistance not much room
[10:35] {scottie} tks
[10:35] {dptl} trail to under .20 now coh
01[10:35] {Threei}  not liking it very much
[10:36] {dptl} to .24 now
[10:37] {nemo} jeeez...dp you can go home early
[10:38] {dptl} no, i have to work have to fix things :)
[10:38] {dino} hlf spike
[10:40] {dino} actg drop
[10:41] {nemo} oh great...it's pink month in the NFL
[10:41] {dino} hlf sm s .06
[10:42] {dino} gmcr drop
[10:42] {dino} hlf stop
[10:43] {nemo} 53.57-.75
01[10:44] {Threei} Long Setup:  MOS  .50 break
[10:44] {dino} see it, but spike is einhorn not offerig thesis, so, still short just not saying why spike
01[10:45] {Threei}  stop .44 for scalpers, .39 day traders
[10:45] {dino} break .00
01[10:45] {Threei}  1:1
[10:47] {nemo} mos likely headed to the 200SMA although I have suport between 55.20-.30
[10:52] {dptl} out coh
[10:52] {Will49} saaweeeeet... dp
[10:52] {dptl} :)
01[10:53] {Threei}  very nice
01[10:55] {Threei}  General Motors Corp Greenlight Capital's Einhorn: I am long General Motors, GM is much healthier now - Value Investor Congress- Brand quality is improving across the board
01[10:56] {Threei}  (EU) France PM Ayrault: Any exits from the EMU need to be ruled out - comments at National Assembly
01[10:56] {Threei}  wow, really?
01[10:56] {Threei}  hotel california?
01[10:57] {Threei}  there was one comment in yesterday's news that floored me... ECB threatening to replace Rajoy if he doesn't request bailout nearest weeks
01[10:57] {Threei}  slip of tongue?
01[11:00] {Threei}  ah, new word to describe my presentation: phenomenal
[11:02] {nemo} dov probably going to the whole
01[11:05] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .60 break
01[11:05] {Threei}  If holds  .70
[11:09] {dino} out clb .58, +1.34
01[11:10] {Threei}  nope
[11:10] {scottie} gj dino wow
01[11:11] {Threei}  wtg
[11:11] {Will49} OK dino!
[11:11] {dino} ty
[11:12] {Will49} you can go home with dp
[11:14] {dino} yum drop
[11:14] {dino} lol will
[11:16] {dino} hlf sm s .00
[11:17] {nemo} wow dks
[11:23] {scottie} ci .80 long ?
01[11:25] {Threei}  feels like short to me
[11:25] {scottie} ok tks
[11:25] {scottie} Why isn't it a JBE
[11:25] {dino} srpt drop
01[11:26] {Threei}  it is... but volume is almost disappeared
01[11:26] {Threei}  and I am not a fan of JBE breaks on no volume
[11:26] {scottie} I see
01[11:26] {Threei}  they turn traps too often
[11:33] {dino} hlf stop
[11:36] {dino} mkt drop
[11:41] {nemo} ilmn 51 level inflection
[11:42] {nemo} we did a S_load of volume on the SPY over the last few minutes, this could be the bottom
[11:43] {dino} clb smr l .15 wide
01[11:44] {Threei}  don't see news for this drop
[11:47] {dino} cmo drop
[11:48] {dino} sm l .80
[11:49] {dino} 07 still scrolling red, gut says down
01[11:52] {Threei}  mine too
[11:57] {nemo} bear flag spy iwm
[12:00] {dino} cmo to .06
[12:03] {dino} ssys sm l .25, wide
[12:03] {dino} out cmo .09, +.29
[12:05] {thomcbell} gm looking long here
[12:07] {dptl} clf .20 s ?
01[12:07] {Threei}  I think so
[12:09] {dptl} ok in
[12:09] {dptl} .19
[12:10] {nemo} spxu long
[12:10] {dptl} oops stopped
[12:12] {nemo} nope
[12:14] {nemo} dks short .00
[12:22] {dptl} wlp .40 long?
01[12:22] {Threei}  probably... but not much confidence... 51/49
[12:28] {dptl} dg .35 s? but a bit slow
01[12:29] {Threei}  not sure
[12:30] {dptl} lrcx .05 l?
01[12:30] {Threei}  nah, too narrow
[12:34] {dptl} clf rinsed most likly
[12:36] {thomcbell} gm definitely one to look for additional long entries
[12:36] {thomcbell} einhorn - the short seller likes it long
[12:36] {thomcbell} kind of like a double endorsement
[12:41] {dino} arlp drop
[12:45] {thomcbell} gm beast
[12:55] {dino} ssys stop -.25
01[13:01] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .45 break
01[13:01] {Threei}  Invalidated
01[13:19] {Threei}  this market stall looks to me like most likely to resolve in selling
[13:19] {dino} ssys sm l .04
[13:20] {nemo} dks
[13:27] {dptl} lost connection to laser...anyone?
[13:27] {Will49} I'm good
[13:27] {Will49} are you on shaw.ca dp?
01[13:28] {Threei}  back on
[13:28] {dptl} came up now
[13:31] {dino} acom
01[13:34] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .60 break
01[13:35] {Threei}  If holds  .70
01[13:36] {Threei}  nope
[13:55] {nemo} whoa
01[13:55] {Threei}  (GR) Greece Fin Min Stournas: Uncertain whether or not a deal with Troika can be reached before the EU summit; talks are continuing- Note: The EU summit is scheduled for Oct 18-19
01[13:55] {Threei}  I don't think that's what caused selling though
01[13:56] {Threei}  this was 10 min ago
[14:05] {scottie} ne s 35 ?
01[14:05] {Threei}  I think so
01[14:05] {Threei}  looks promising
[14:21] {scottie} wrong direction
01[14:23] {Threei}  not much verve either way
01[14:26] {Threei}  IMO, still valid
[14:26] {dptl} jcp .50 s?
[14:26] {Will49} short under 35?
[14:26] {Will49} ne
01[14:26] {Threei}  right
[14:26] {Will49} tks
01[14:26] {Threei}  I think so JCP
[14:31] {dptl} stop .55?
01[14:31] {Threei}  .57
[14:37] {goryl} thanks Vad, see u all tomorrow
[14:39] {Will49} cheers goryl
[14:41] {dptl} invalidated jcp
01[14:42] {Threei}  take care goryl
01[14:44] {Threei}  JCP is valid again IMO
[14:47] {Will49} JCP behaving like my ex-wife
[14:48] {scottie} lol
[14:48] {Will49} fill in your own blank here________
[14:56] {dino} here it finally goes, out ssys .14, +1.10
[14:56] {scottie} great dino
[14:56] {dino} ty
01[14:56] {Threei}  very nice
[14:58] {dptl} injcp
[15:00] {scottie} in too .49
[15:00] {dptl} now all we need is Vad stick
[15:00] {scottie} stop .58 ?
01[15:00] {Threei}  yup
[15:00] {Will49} me too
[15:03] {dptl} out half
01[15:05] {Threei}  yup
[15:06] {dptl} if breaks .37 will go to .25
[15:07] {dptl} well most likly
[15:11] {dptl} OUT
[15:11] {dptl} oops
[15:12] {scottie} out +.19 tks dp
[15:12] {Will49} .18 tks dp
[15:12] {dptl} yw ...ok got to go....see ya tomorrow all...good evening..
[15:12] {jackharry} +.23, thank you
[15:12] {robbers} +.12, thanks.
01[15:13] {Threei}  :)
[15:16] {Will49} grab the money and run dp
[15:17] {scottie} see you dp
[15:23] {nemo} is the market trading
01[15:23] {Threei}  it does when drops
01[15:23] {Threei}  ceases when climbs
[15:36] {scottie} brcm 34 if holds .95 ?
01[15:36] {Threei}  5 cents batle
[15:37] {scottie} ok
[15:47] {scottie} ok, see you tomorrow guys
01[15:48] {Threei}  thank you all
[15:48] {Will49} Great day Vad...see ya
01[15:48] {Threei}  have a great evening, see you tomorrow hopefully lessd jet-lagged
[15:48] {Will49} don't change a thing :)
[15:50] {dolores} bye guys take care
[15:50] {dolores} have a good evening
[15:50] {dolores} the best thing for jetlag is a good vodka !!!