Tuesday, February 5, 2013
Feb 05 2013
After nicely profitable opening trades, the day continued with back and forth plays. Finished with two nice 1:2 wins taking us back in black though, so winning streak continues.
(09:12) thomcbell: good morning
(09:12) Threei: tbell
(09:12) scottie: good morning
(09:12) jdetente has joined.
(09:13) Threei: scottie
(09:13) jdetente: Good morning
(09:13) Threei: jd
(09:17) ese has joined.
(09:18) dino has joined.
(09:18) ese has left.
(09:19) ese has joined.
(09:20) ese: sheesh........finally in
(09:20) Threei: ese
(09:21) ese: is this the permanent home now vad?
(09:21) Threei: no
(09:22) Will49 has joined.
(09:23) Will49: Good Morning
(09:23) Threei: will
(09:24) Will49: Still can't connect with regular servers. eh?
(09:24) Threei: no but should be up soon
(09:24) Threei: morning fun: http://goo.gl/W8skW
(09:25) ese: mornin will
(09:26) Will49: Hi ESE
(09:29) Will49: Europe
(09:30) dptl: gm
(09:30) Threei: Short FB .50 break
(09:30) Threei: hl
(09:30) Threei: if holds .60
(09:31) Threei: target 1:2
(09:31) Threei: 1:1
(09:31) scottie: +.09 tks
(09:32) thomcbell: perfect Vad
(09:32) Threei:
(09:32) jdetente: +.18 tks!
(09:32) Threei: 1:2, out
(09:34) Threei: Long BBRY .70 break
(09:34) Threei: if holds .60
(09:34) Threei: 1:1
(09:36) Threei: 1:2, out
(09:36) Threei: can I go home?
(09:36) Threei: Long FB .50 break
(09:37) Threei: if holds .40
(09:37) Threei: Dell to be taken private by Michael Dell, Silver Lake; shareholders to receive $13.65/share
(09:37) ese: out POT from yesterday .51 +.06....call it a non performing loan
(09:38) Threei: lol
(09:39) ese: still L WY....up .30 so far
(09:41) ese: out 1/2 WY .76 +.41
(09:41) Threei: short BA .90 break
(09:42) Threei: if holds 76
(09:42) dptl: abt .80 long?
(09:44) Threei: crap, just typed BA two-sided
(09:45) Threei: do, let's keep questions for after first 30 min
(09:45) Threei: dp
(09:47) Threei: got away
(09:48) Threei: Short CAT .50 break hl
(09:51) dino: tho hl l .51
(09:51) Threei: Short CAT .80 break hl
(09:52) Threei: of holds .90
(09:53) Threei: Short LVS .60 break
(09:55) ese: out WY full .74 +.39
(09:55) Will49: LOL
(09:55) Threei: change CAT to .85 break
(09:56) Will49: +.39 would not bore me
(09:56) ese: another day at the office
(09:57) ese: don't like to be in something thats not participating......S&P jumped up there and WY did not not.....exhaustion sign
(09:59) Threei: CAT touched 1:1
(10:00) Threei: JAN ISM NON-MANUFACTURING COMPOSITE: 55.2 V 55.0E
(10:00) scottie: didn't take my bid here
(10:00) Threei: nor mine, but trail stop to .91
(10:02) Threei: LVS stop .66
(10:02) Threei: OK firm 1:1 CAT
(10:02) scottie: +.09 again tks
(10:02) Threei:
(10:02) Threei: and jumped right from there
(10:03) Threei: good timing
(10:03) Threei: out LVS
(10:07) dino: tho stop -.30
(10:08) scottie: KO l .95 if holds .90 ?
(10:09) thomcbell: lvs very heavy
(10:09) thomcbell: still
(10:09) Threei: KO yes
(10:09) Threei: LVS yeah, looks like rinse
(10:13) Threei: yup... scoundrel
(10:14) scottie: in .95 stop .89
(10:15) jdetente: in KO also, .95
(10:19) ese: L jcp .30
(10:19) ese: averaged a couple of buys
(10:20) dptl: hes .90 sh?
(10:21) dino: tho hl l .75
(10:22) jdetente: KO stop
(10:22) scottie: out .88
(10:22) Threei: HES, no read
(10:22) dptl: ok
(10:25) ese: out jcp .46 +.16
(10:25) Will49:
(10:29) scottie: looks like my stop was too tight on KO
(10:29) Raven has joined.
(10:29) dptl: dhi .25 long?
(10:30) Threei: I'd prfer .20
(10:31) dptl: ok
(10:33) ese: wow the superbowl champs have joined the board...........cool
(10:34) nemo has left.
(10:34) nemo has joined.
(10:35) ese: sorry.........just one of them.........a raven.........and not the raven"s"..........oh well
(10:35) Will49: evermore
(10:35) thomcbell: bbry very orderly moves
(10:37) Threei: (US) President Obama to request shorter term budget fix to delay automatic spending cuts, perhaps for several months; Obama to make statement at 13:15ET
(10:38) scottie: KO rinse
(10:39) jdetente: meh
(10:39) dino: cyou hl l .51
(11:38) Threei: Attorney General Holder announces Department of Justice suit against S&P for mortgage ratings
(11:38) cipher: out amzn -.26
(11:39) Threei: heh... shot across the bow, "I dare you to try and downgrade US again"
(11:42) ese: L bbry .29
(11:47) thomcbell: vad u still there fb ?
(11:48) Threei: yes
(11:48) Threei: debated partialing at .61 -.62, but it bounced while I debated
(11:48) Will49: Today's lesson in patience for Will....FB
(11:48) thomcbell: could get interesting if 28.60 is lost
(11:49) dptl: charts issues again laser
(11:51) jdetente: What stop are we trailing?
(11:52) ese: L bbry .11 avg .21
(11:52) Threei: jd?
(11:53) jdetente: For FB
(11:53) dptl: short cop .89 ..stop .96
(11:53) Threei: .76
(11:53) jdetente: thks
(11:55) Threei: heh
(11:55) Threei: DOJ's Holder: The lawsuit against S&P is not connected to the US AAA rating downgrade
(11:55) Threei: of course not
(11:56) Threei: oh well
(11:56) Threei: really should have partield at .61
(11:58) Will49 has left.
(12:06) dino: geos sm l .28 gappy
(12:09) dptl: cop to .91 stop for me
(12:11) Will49 has joined.
(12:13) dino: out cyou .16, +.65
(12:13) ese: for a second there i read dinos as ....dino goes small....
(12:13) dino: out tho .24, +.49
(12:13) Threei: wtg
(12:13) Threei: nice side to side wins
(12:13) dino: lol ese
(12:13) thomcbell: short setup FIO 17.72 break if holding 17.79
(12:14) dino: those were hours long from a.m.
(12:14) ese has left.
(12:14) dptl: half out .81 cop
(12:17) thomcbell: target fio 1:2
(12:17) Threei: f'n FB
(12:18) thomcbell: mhp looking like a ong setup Vad
(12:19) ese has joined.
(12:20) ese: wha da ya mean....have joined..........the stupid thing cut me off
(12:20) jdetente: dude...lol
(12:20) Will49: hahaha
(12:21) ese: was geting on vads case about the sounds yesterday but this is kinda fun
(12:22) dino: out geos 91.55, +1.27
(12:22) Will49: whoa nelly
(12:23) dino:
(12:24) dptl: all out cop .70
(12:25) Will49: dp on fire
(12:26) Will49: think I'll light one up and see if it changes my luck
(12:26) dptl:
(12:26) dptl: lol
(12:27) dino: lol
(12:27) Will49:
(12:27) dino:
(12:28) ese: real nice dino
(12:29) ese: a round for everyone?
(12:29) dino: indeed
(12:29) Will49:
(12:30) Will49: Quick..hide the flag
(12:31) thomcbell: i like sound alerts for when a trade idea pops up - can you do that on the normal systrem?
(12:31) Threei: no but you can set sound alert if you use mirc
(12:40) thomcbell: 1:1 FIO
(12:40) Threei: wtg
(12:44) dptl: nov .20 sh if stays under .30?
(12:45) Threei: nah
(12:45) jdetente: thanks for FIO thombell scalped it
(12:45) dptl: hum .90 long?
(12:46) thomcbell: very welcome
(12:46) thomcbell: wish it had more in it
(12:46) Threei: HUM, hl
(12:47) Threei: powerful dailym worth a try
(12:47) dptl: late
(13:01) ese: hmmmmmmmm....production of tortia chips is down
(13:01) ese: (MX) Mexico Jan IMEF Manufacturing Index: 52.1 v 53.2e; Non Manufacturing Index: 51.7 v 55.3 prior - Source TradeTheNews.com
(13:02) Threei: who cares about tortila chips... tequila man, tequila!
(13:02) dptl: lol thats right
(13:05) dptl: tortila......these musicians eh..
(13:06) Threei: well dp... don't laugh too much at them, they've got the best looking girls in their bands
(13:06) dptl: true...what can i say
(13:07) Threei: nothing... better shut up, spologize and hope he invites you to the next practice
(13:07) ese: hmmmmmmmmm
(13:07) dptl: hmm.....
(13:08) Will49: lol
(13:09) ese: i'm outta here all......have a great rest of the day......still long bbry.......we'll see what happens by the end of the day
(13:09) Threei: take care ese
(13:09) Will49: cheers
(13:09) Threei: see what you did dp?
(13:09) ese: cya guys
(13:09) ese has left.
(13:09) jdetente: take care
(13:09) dptl: %%%% it...he lives now
(13:10) dptl: leaves
(13:10) Threei: not accepting your apology
(13:10) Threei: you are so screwed
(13:10) dptl: yeah........
(13:11) dptl: well.....i'll just again....lol
(13:17) Threei: president on tv
(13:20) Threei: CBO isues updated budget forecasts and economic outlook: Deficit to decline to 2.4%/GDP in 2015 v 7% in 2012- Deficit to rise by $7T over coming decade
(13:31) Threei: Long BBRY .10 break
(13:31) Threei: if holds 16
(13:31) Threei: target 1:3
(13:32) dino: tho hl l .45
(13:36) dptl: dhi .60 long?
(13:36) Threei: yes
(13:37) dptl: would you put stop under .50 or .55?
(13:37) Threei: both are valid
(13:38) Threei: I pwrsonally, .50
(13:38) dptl: ok
(13:40) Threei: lol, twitter... "My life coach just got foreclosed on and fled the country"
(13:41) jdetente: come on BBRY play nice
(13:41) Threei: grrr
(14:03) Threei: move your butt DHI
(14:06) Threei: should be worth 1:2 at least
(14:06) dptl: offers is in place
(14:13) dptl: nov .50sh?
(14:14) Threei: market doesn't look to me like rolling over
(14:14) dptl: ok
(14:14) Threei: frikin BBRY
(14:14) Threei: rinse
(14:16) jdetente: ugh
(14:21) Threei: let me reiterate: frikin BBRY
(14:22) jdetente: now let's just get DHI to move
(14:25) Threei: US attorney: Cyclist Lance Armstrong will not be prosecuted for doping
(14:40) dino: ew sm l .01
(14:40) Threei: 1:1 DHI
(14:40) scottie: half out tks dp
(14:41) dptl:
(14:41) scottie: next time, pick a stock that moves faster, will ya
(14:41) Threei: really
(14:41) dptl: lol ok..
(14:41) Threei: <--- he="" one="" p="" picked="" rinsed="" said="" that="" who="">(14:42) scottie: lol
(14:42) dptl: got to leave early...see ya tomorrow all
(14:43) scottie: dp
(14:43) Threei: take care
(14:43) Will49: be good
(14:44) dptl: lol...it was me holding it
(14:44) Threei: yup
(14:45) Threei: go away
(14:45) dptl: ok...going
(14:48) scottie: yyyesss +.19
(14:52) jdetente: DHI...nice. Slow but profitable
(14:53) Threei: yup
(14:54) scottie: BTU s .08 ?
(14:55) scottie: or .10
(14:56) Threei: hard to tell
(14:56) scottie: tks
(14:57) Threei: chart is more or less right, market looks like just continuing to creep
(15:03) scottie: WLL l .20 ?
(15:03) Threei: I'd really prefer it on pullback
(15:03) scottie: ok
(15:06) thomcbell: mhp just got pretty emotional there
(15:09) scottie: BTU... tks
(15:11) Threei: WLL got away
(15:11) scottie: well...
(15:12) Threei: there was almost no colnsolidation after ipward move, can't bring myself to buy that without either pullback or some more consolidation
(15:17) dino: ew stop -.22
(15:25) dino: vmed sm s .01
(15:27) dino: cov vmed .71, +.30
(15:27) Threei: OK, there should be one closing short somewhere
(15:28) Threei: missed FB .80
(15:29) Threei: grrr
(15:30) Threei: Short BBRY .15 break
(15:30) Threei: if holds .25
(15:37) cipher has left.
(15:37) Threei: 1:1 baby
(15:38) cipher has joined.
(15:38) Threei: 1:2, out
(15:38) Threei: got my closing play
(15:39) jdetente: nice one. ty!
(15:39) Threei:
(15:39) scottie: couldn't short it here, missed a nice play
(15:39) Will49: tks vad
(15:39) Threei: yw
(15:39) Threei: OK guys, not going to push anymore
(15:40) Will49: have a great evening
(15:40) Threei: glad to finish in black, has been back and forth day
(15:40) scottie: gn, see you all tomorrow
(15:40) Threei: thank you all, I am going to yell at server guys once more
(15:40) Threei: see you all tomorrow
Monday, February 4, 2013
February-March 2013 Outlook
February-March
2013 Outlook: Clearing the Last Hurdles
The New Year has started with a much more positive tone than 2012, though world leaders are still struggling to find balance between policies that promote economic recovery and those that might inflate new and dangerous bubbles. Europe's patchwork of rescue measures has dramatically eased sovereign yields off their peak levels. Meanwhile, Washington set the table for a positive January, establishing some certainty for businesses and households with the agreement to preserve middle class tax cuts, but kicked the can down the road again on the debt ceiling debate and the budget cuts demanded by the sequester. The notion of a "currency war" got some new life as the US Fed launched its open ended quantitative easing program and Japan's new government pushed the BOJ to promise a similar policy in 2014. As central banks tipped toward even more open handed policy and politicians continue to wrestle with the new fiscal realities, the global economy has quietly gotten back on its feet, looking steadier albeit at a slower "new normal" growth rate.
Equity markets appear to be setting up for a break out if a few final political roadblocks can be overcome in the months ahead. Major US and European equity indices are at five-year highs, while Hong Kong stocks and Japan's Nikkei are near two-year highs. Companies have spent the last few years getting leaner and hopes abound that these more efficient firms can expand earnings multiples now that the economic turnaround is starting to take hold. The latest earnings season is showing mixed results in this regard, with some long time favorites like Apple losing favor but investment dollars finding a home in other stocks. The net result is equities continue to rise, and are now testing an inflection point exemplified by the S&P 500 testing a range above 1,500, within striking distance of all-time highs (1,565).
With stocks on the verge of a break out, murmurs about a reversal in the nearly uninterrupted 20 year-long rally in bonds are becoming more pronounced. Many analysts now describe the action in the bond market as a bubble, brought on by historically easy base rates at global central banks coupled with ongoing economic uncertainty that leave no alternative to the relative safety of government bonds. Years of record low government bond yields have worn on investors, however, leading to the beginnings of what some prognosticators says will be a "Great Rotation" back into stocks. Recently the US 10-year yield hit 2% for first time since April 2012, but that merely got it back to the level that marked the low yield during the outset of the 2008 crisis. By almost any measure, stocks appear to be a better value than bonds, yet uncertainty is still holding that Great Rotation at bay for the time being. If some of the final hurdles of uncertainty can be cleared, it could trigger the surge to new highs that stock market watchers are clamoring for, and money draining out of treasuries could set bond yields on a trajectory back toward historical norms.
The Economic Steeplechase
The fallow years of the crisis have dented investor confidence to the extent that market participants are still reluctant to fully adopt the risk-on bias they are leaning towards. The anemic growth being achieved by most of the world's major economies is particularly troubling to the want-to-be bulls.
Of all the global regions, Europe has the most questionable growth outlook. Just recently, the UK delivered a preliminary Q4 GDP reading that was worse than expected and back in contraction, after Q3 growth finally broke a streak of three straight quarters of contraction. If the final revision set to be released on February 27 digs the hole even deeper, it could magnify concerns that Prime Minister Cameron's government may have pushed austerity measures too hard and tilted the UK back toward its third official recession in four years.
German GDP isn't much better, with six quarters in a row of growth below one percent and more of the same expected from the preliminary reading (Feb 14). The German Economic Ministry also made it clear in its latest forecast that this suboptimal growth will continue indefinitely, cutting its forecast for 2013 GDP to 0.4% from 1.0% prior. Measures of factory orders have come in below expectations in three of the last four months as well, a problematic sign for industrial Germany, though it has been offset somewhat by recent improvements in the Ifo and Zew business sentiment surveys.
The advance reading of US Q4 GDP surprised to the downside with a -0.1% reading, which was largely attributable to slower federal government spending. Markets shook off the poor reading, anticipating that the more complete revisions of the GDP data (due out on February 28 and March 28), will correct back to growth territory. Data watchers are also pleased with the trend in US payrolls. After a hiccup in mid-2012, payrolls have been trending higher, with upward revisions almost every month. The last revision brought both December nonfarm and private payrolls close to the key 200 thousand level that is essential for taking unemployment lower from here.
Growth measures in China seem to be stabilizing at the new normal of high single digit growth. The latest data on China showed 2012 growth at 7.8%, its lowest annual pace since 1999, but still comfortably above the new target rate of 7.5%. Though some skeptics don't trust Chinese government data, other measures of economic activity are confirming this solid growth rate. The official China manufacturing PMI has seen four straight months of expansion, though it has been tending to come in below analyst estimates, while HSBC's PMI measure just hit a two year high and has exceeded estimates for four months. In its survey, HSBC polls more small and medium sized businesses that have a tougher time getting credit in a slow economy, so the case can be made that it's a better cyclical signal that the government reading. China trade data has also improved lately, with the January trade balance showing a surprising jump in exports above 14%, the highest year over year rise in seven months. Imports were also higher than expected, another indicator that China's economy is on the rebound. Still the readings of February data may be artificially subdued by the 'Golden Week' celebration of the lunar New Year starting February 10, during which Chinese industry will be largely idled for the spring festival transitioning from the Year of the Dragon to the Year of the Snake.
Political Hurdles
China completes its generational political hand off at the meeting of the National People's Congress in early March. There Xi Jinping is expected to be named President of the country, succeeding Hu Jintao, whom he replaced as head of the Communist Party in November. Mr. Xi is not expected to rock the boat as he takes power; so far the transition has been focused on maximizing stability.
As it has been for the last several months, Washington is still the epicenter of political uncertainty. For the time being, however, a more conciliatory tone has been struck in the capital. As a damage control effort for the reputation of a Congress that appears to the world to be losing its ability to govern effectively, Republicans agreed to delay the debt ceiling fight for three more months (to May 19) and to tighten up filibuster rules in the Senate that have nearly ground legislation to a halt in that body. Congress managed to avert the Fiscal Cliff at the last moment, thanks largely to the personal working relationship between VP Joe Biden and his former Senate colleague minority leader Mitch McConnell, but the New Year's Eve compromise only dealt with half of the problem, leaving the hardest issues to be tackled in the weeks ahead.
The 'sequester,' set to begin March 1 unless a new agreement is hammered out, will cut the discretionary part of the federal budget by nearly 10%, split evenly between defense and non-defense spending. It was designed to be painful enough to both parties to force them into making hard choices and compromises on more targeted cuts. Some Republican leaders are now suggesting that the sequester cuts might be inevitable since further negotiations may require more tax compromises, and some Democrats favor allowing the sequester to happen because it's the only way the defense budget will ever be included in discretionary cuts.
President Obama won't likely be sending a dear Valentine message to Congress in his State of the Union address tentatively scheduled for February 12. If a sequester deal is not being shaped by that time, the speech may include heavy doses of the President scolding congressmen for creating another political cliffhanger (immigration reform and gun violence will be the other big topics).
After the sequester is dealt with one way or another, the next line in the sand will be coming up fast. At the end of March, Congress has to authorize a spending plan, and the GOP has made noises that it will use this as another political football to leverage additional spending cuts. If the appropriations bill is held up, it could force the federal government to furlough workers and suspend non-essential services. This would be a political risk, however, after a similar maneuver to force a government shutdown in 1995 backfired on Republicans.
Europe is also experiencing more political turmoil. Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy is embroiled in graft scandal that might threaten his government. He and other leading members of the Popular Party are accused of receiving kickbacks from a party slush fund during the boom years that lasted until 2008, allegations that are particularly damaging in this time of austerity. Two junior members of Rajoy's party have already quit the government in protest, and the attorney general has determined the allegations warrant an investigation. If the scandal cannot be put to rest quickly, it could destabilize the government and threaten its ability to successfully navigate out of Spain's fiscal and financial system problems, and may even force a snap election.
Uncertain times are also being seen in Italy as it returns to a fully political government after the steady technocratic rule of Prime Minister Monti. With the euro zone the crisis ebbing, political machinations abruptly ended Monti's term late last year and new parliamentary elections on February 24-25 will determine what's next for the country. The Democratic Party (PD) is leading in the polls, following the trend across Europe during the recent crisis years of throwing out conservative governments in favor of socialist leaders (a worrisome trend for German Chancellor Merkel who will face the polls this autumn). If the PD takes power it will likely add to the chorus of the more left-leaning leadership in Europe calling for added programmatic spending to balance the austerity measures that were enacted in the name of fiscal stability. This is a concern for many officials, including those at the upper echelons of the ECB, who worry that the perception of the crisis easing should not be used as an excuse to turn back on fiscal consolidation efforts.
Banks Vaulting
Beyond these political concerns, Europe is also facing currency imbalances eroding its exports and persistent high unemployment rates sapping consumer confidence, yet there have been some recent signs that stabilization has taken hold. Since ECB President Draghi's July 2012 declaration to do "whatever necessary" to preserve the euro, sovereign debt tensions have dissipated and the currency zone has found some economic stability. The situation in Greece has been patched, talk of an impending full Spanish sovereign bailout has all but vanished, and the other bailout program states - Portugal and Ireland - are making strides toward normalizing their debt markets.
At the last ECB policy meeting Draghi shifted expectations away from a cut to negative deposit rates, indicating that it was no longer being advocated by anyone on the council in January. Another surprise development was the revelation that the stronger European banks have begun returning Longer-Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) funds faster than expected - the ECB announced in late January that banks would repay €137.2 billion of LTRO funds in the first week, much more than the €100 billion expected. This seems to indicate that banking sector liquidity is better than believed, though the truth of this will become clearer over time as banks schedule the return of over one trillion euros in 3-year LTRO loans up until their expiration in 2015. One risk associated with this process is that it may create the appearance of a two tiered financial systems, between healthy banks eager to return the funds quickly and less robust institutions that are reluctant to repay the LTROs expeditiously.
Despite this good news, Europe is still putting out fires in the banking system, and even in core countries. Just days ago the Netherlands was forced to nationalize SNS Reaal NV, the country's fourth largest bank, to save it from collapsing under the weight of a bad real estate loan portfolio which endangered the entire Dutch banking system. There were concerns that Italy might have make a similar move with its third largest bank, Monte Paschi, after the bank uncovered €700 million in losses from a complex derivatives deal. Ultimately the Bank of Italy approved €3.9 billion in bailout bonds to stabilize the bank, but the incident raised unsettling questions about how managers at the bank were able to avoid setting off red flags sooner despite the expectation of tighter controls after the 2008 financial meltdown.
The plan to create a new cadre of regulators at the ECB to oversee the continent's largest banks helped quiet the turmoil in Europe late last year, but upon closer scrutiny the plan is now being panned by many experts. The terms of the banking union give the ECB direct supervision over the largest 200 banks, those with more than €30 billion in assets, and less defined role of pointing out problems at smaller banks that are under the supervision of their home country's regulators. Critics say that this failed to address the two cornerstones of a banking union, a joint deposit insurance scheme and a single resolution fund to clean up failed banks. As it stands now, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) rescue fund can only be applied to viable banks, not the "bad banks" that nations have set up to wind down problem assets, which are the banks most likely to incur losses and need external support. So if the ECB demands a failed bank be wound down, the home nation will have to foot the bill, putting renewed stress on the sovereign. Thus, critics say, the inadequate bank resolution regime has failed to deal with the toxic link between weak sovereigns and weak banks. Bank failures and bailouts like those just seen in the Netherlands and Italy could rekindle the European crisis.
Meanwhile US banks are starting to look healthier, at least by comparison to Europe. US banks have trimmed down their collective balance sheets to about 78% of US GDP (compared to Euro Zone banks at 357% of GDP and Japan banks at 174%), making the financial system less of a threat if banks are put to the test again.
On March 7, the Fed will release results of the annual supervisory stress tests conducted accordance with the Dodd-Frank Act, and a week later it will announce the results from the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) of "too big to fail" banks. Last year some banks, notably Bank of America and Citigroup, failed parts of the review based on their plans for dividend distributions and stock repurchases, which was publicly embarrassing. This time around none of the big banks are expected to fail the stress test and CCAR, and many will be given a green light to pursue more ambitious capital plans than in the last few years, which could be a real catalyst for bank stocks headed into the spring.
An area of continued uncertainty for US banks is the implementation of bulk of the Dodd-Frank rules, which were initially slated to be in place in the summer of 2012. Regulators missed that deadline and have continued efforts to write rules, and now appear to be putting the finishing touches on the specific regulations to support Dodd-Frank. That may make 2013 the year for implementation which could lead to some surprises as stricter rules hamper some of the old business practices on Wall Street, and unintended consequences of the new rules shake out.
The Fed, which is among the regulators working to finish the Dodd-Frank rules, has had most of its attention taken by new policy innovations and the launch of a fresh quantitative easing program. After making its first "QE-infinity" policy tweak in December by replacing the Operation Twist maturity extension program with more outright Treasury purchases, the Fed will probably keep a lower profile in the next few months. The committee is expected to continue to stress the communication function of the Fed, reemphasizing that the new data thresholds for rate policy are not triggers but merely guideposts. The Fed will take great pains to point on that the 6.5% unemployment threshold in particular will not automatically trigger a rate hike, nor will its approach preclude other preparations for exiting accommodation schemes.
Each new sign of economic improvement is now being considered as to how it will impact the timetable of the Fed's eventual unwind of accommodation. Surveys suggest that the market expects conditions will improve enough in the months ahead to cause the Fed to trim back its current $85 billion per month quantitative easing program to a more modest monthly amount in the third or fourth quarter. The full FOMC will not openly discuss potential exit strategies in early 2013, but in the interest of the transparency that has been the hallmark of the Bernanke era, some members may float trial balloons in their periodic speeches. One Fed official has already suggested that the unwinding process will begin with raising interest on excess reserves (IOER). Notably the FOMC voters will shift to a slightly more dovish slate in its 2013 rotation, with the leading dissenters of the last few years out of the voting membership, so Bernanke should be able to start the accommodation endgame on his own terms.
Currency Leapfrog
The Fed and their global central bank counterparts will be facing more questions about the so-called "currency war" in the months ahead. Japan has become the front line in the currency war since the country elected its fifth new Prime Minister in five years on the promise of breaking a twenty year economic malaise. So far, newly installed PM Shinzo Abe has followed through on his plan to jumpstart the country's economy by pressuring the central bank into a joint statement with the government setting an official 2% inflation target and promising the BOJ will pursue open-ended asset purchases. This action had the desired effect of further weakening the yen and extending gains in the Nikkei, but it has some disagreeable side effects. Abe's plan may have eroded the independence of the BOJ and it has drawn criticism from other countries worried about competitive devaluation. The opened ended BOJ QE program also had a strange caveat: the program will not begin until January of 2014. This odd one year delay may be targeted at keeping the "jawboning" effect alive for longer, but it sets up the BOJ program to begin when other global central banks will probably be in the midst of winding down their own extraordinary programs.
That timeframe could change, however, when Mr. Abe names his hand-picked replacement for outgoing BOJ governor Shirakawa, who steps down in April. A new BOJ chief who is vocal about aggressive easing could signal a spring offensive in the currency war. Reports say the short list of candidates has been narrowed to four names: Asian Development Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda, former finance ministry official Takatoshi Ito, and two former BOJ Deputy Governors, Kazumasa Iwata and Toshiro Muto. Kuroda once advocated in a paper that the BOJ should set a 3% inflation target, while Muto recently stated that stopping deflation is a top priority and a policy of monetary easing is justified. Iwata and Ito have both proposed that the BOJ should buy foreign-currency bonds to reverse exchange-rate appreciation, with Iwata elaborating that the central bank should double its balance sheet to achieve the 2% inflation target by 2014.
The Japanese press is already speculating that Abe's choice to lead the BOJ could initiate the new easing program as he takes office in April, particularly if incoming data support immediate action. It's clear that the new government is anxious for action, with one senior economy ministry official suggesting openly that the yen would only become problematic in the 110-120 per dollar range, though his boss, economy minister Amari, later backtracked from that statement as unseemly. Other senior Japanese officials and advisors have indicated that a yen range of 95-100 is an appropriate level.
Euro Zone officials don't appear to be ready to take up arms to fight a currency war, but some senior officials have begun to strike a note of alarm. At the global forum in Davos this January, one ECB official was quoted as saying the central bank is "not very happy" with a step toward competitive devaluation in Japan, given the massive quantitative easing programs already being implemented in the US and UK. French President Hollande put a happier spin on euro strength, saying it shows investor confidence in Europe is returning, though he still noted that the euro is now at a "very significant" level which could be problematic.
The issue of competitive currency devaluations is certain to be a hot topic on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in February (Feb 25-26). Senior officials across the globe have already taken note. For example, a Bank of Korea economist recently said "it is not an exaggeration that the global economy will face a currency warTrade protectionism is spreading." The Taiwan central bank has said outright that it will step into the currency market if necessary, and German industrial groups have registered their concerns that the new BOJ policy may cause a devaluation race.
Clearing the Wall of Worry
For the stock market, January's performance is usually a strong indicator for the entire year. With US stocks seeing their best four week start in twenty years, and bonds yields still depressed, equity markets may gain a lot of ground later this year if economic confidence is not tripped up by the hurdles presented this spring in Washington or Europe.
Signs of a strengthening economy in the US could shake the expectation that the Fed will keep up the current $85 billino per month in QE until the second half of the year. But that would require consistent payroll growth over 200 thousand per month and unemployment starting to head down closer to the 6.5% policy threshold. It remains to be seen if and when the "Great Rotation" toward risk assets will be knocked off kilter by concerns about the "Great Unwind" of unprecedented central bank accommodation that looks to start this year.
It is also yet to be seen if the rising talk of a currency war will materialize in a race to devalue currencies or if it's an overstated problem, making too much of standard skirmishes. Despite the griping of other finance and monetary officials, the BOJ plan to boost asset purchases and restart inflation does not appear to be all that radical in the era of fiat currencies of the last 40 years. The Euro Zone appears to be ready to sit out the currency war, despite the euro experiencing the greatest appreciation from it, though the ECB may still hurl some verbal volleys at other central banks if competitive devaluation campaigns continue.
In terms of the dollar weakness, signs are pointing to at least some near term reversal. One top analyst noted that real money US dollar selling has hit an extreme level in recent days (near two standard deviations), signaling dollar weakness is set for a near term reversal, which would erode some of the strength in risk assets. This, coupled with the extreme complacency in the VIX volatility index, suggest as least a short term reversal in the risk-on gusto seen in January.
A short term retrenchment may be a healthy development, creating a base to build off if 2013 is indeed the year the crisis mentality ends. As always, however, this path could be diverted by political blunders or more surprising revelations from the too-big-to-fail banks that triggered the financial crisis.
CALENDAR
FEBRUARY
1: US Payrolls and Unemployment; US ISM Manufacturing
4: US Factory Order
5: US Non-Manufacturing PMI
6: German Factory Orders
7: ECB and BOE rate decisions; Fed releases annual bank stress tests results; China CPI
8: US Trade Balance; China Trade Balance (tentative)
11-15: China Spring Festival Golden Week holiday
12: BOE Inflation Letter and UK CPI; US State of the Union speech
13: US Retail Sales; BOJ rate decision
14: Europe Q4 preliminary GDP; Fed releases Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) for banks
15: US Final University of Michigan Confidence; UK Retail Sales
18: China HSBC flash Manufacturing PMI
19: Europe Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI readings
20: BOE Minutes; German ZEW Economic Sentiment; US Housing Starts and Building Permits ; US PPI; FOMC Minutes
21: US CPI; US Existing Home Sales; US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
22: German Ifo Business Climate; Europe CPI
24 (Sunday): Italy Parliamentary Election begins
25: Italy Parliamentary Election concludes; G20 meetings start (tentative)
26: US New Home Sales; US Consumer Confidence; G20 meetings
27: UK Q4 GDP (2nd reading); US Durable Goods Orders
28: US Q4 Preliminary GDP (2nd reading); China Manufacturing PMI; China HSBC final Manufacturing PMI
MARCH
Early March: China National People's Congress (Xi to be named President)
1: US ISM Manufacturing PMI; 'Sequester' budget cuts scheduled to begin (unless revised or delayed again)
5: US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
6: BOJ rate decision
7: ECB and BOE rate decisions; US Trade Balance; China CPI
8: US Payrolls and Unemployment; China Trade Balance
11: BOJ Minutes
13: US Retail Sales
14: US PPI
15: US CPI; US Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence
19: US Housing Starts and Building Permits
20: German ZEW Economic Sentiment; BOE minutes; FOMC rate decision, projections and press conference
21: US Existing Home Sales; US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing; China HSBC preliminary Manufacturing PMI
22: Europe flash Services PMI; German Ifo Business Climate
26: US Durable Goods Orders; US Consumer Confidence; US New Home Sales
28: US Final GDP (3rd reading)
31: China Manufacturing PMI
The New Year has started with a much more positive tone than 2012, though world leaders are still struggling to find balance between policies that promote economic recovery and those that might inflate new and dangerous bubbles. Europe's patchwork of rescue measures has dramatically eased sovereign yields off their peak levels. Meanwhile, Washington set the table for a positive January, establishing some certainty for businesses and households with the agreement to preserve middle class tax cuts, but kicked the can down the road again on the debt ceiling debate and the budget cuts demanded by the sequester. The notion of a "currency war" got some new life as the US Fed launched its open ended quantitative easing program and Japan's new government pushed the BOJ to promise a similar policy in 2014. As central banks tipped toward even more open handed policy and politicians continue to wrestle with the new fiscal realities, the global economy has quietly gotten back on its feet, looking steadier albeit at a slower "new normal" growth rate.
Equity markets appear to be setting up for a break out if a few final political roadblocks can be overcome in the months ahead. Major US and European equity indices are at five-year highs, while Hong Kong stocks and Japan's Nikkei are near two-year highs. Companies have spent the last few years getting leaner and hopes abound that these more efficient firms can expand earnings multiples now that the economic turnaround is starting to take hold. The latest earnings season is showing mixed results in this regard, with some long time favorites like Apple losing favor but investment dollars finding a home in other stocks. The net result is equities continue to rise, and are now testing an inflection point exemplified by the S&P 500 testing a range above 1,500, within striking distance of all-time highs (1,565).
With stocks on the verge of a break out, murmurs about a reversal in the nearly uninterrupted 20 year-long rally in bonds are becoming more pronounced. Many analysts now describe the action in the bond market as a bubble, brought on by historically easy base rates at global central banks coupled with ongoing economic uncertainty that leave no alternative to the relative safety of government bonds. Years of record low government bond yields have worn on investors, however, leading to the beginnings of what some prognosticators says will be a "Great Rotation" back into stocks. Recently the US 10-year yield hit 2% for first time since April 2012, but that merely got it back to the level that marked the low yield during the outset of the 2008 crisis. By almost any measure, stocks appear to be a better value than bonds, yet uncertainty is still holding that Great Rotation at bay for the time being. If some of the final hurdles of uncertainty can be cleared, it could trigger the surge to new highs that stock market watchers are clamoring for, and money draining out of treasuries could set bond yields on a trajectory back toward historical norms.
The Economic Steeplechase
The fallow years of the crisis have dented investor confidence to the extent that market participants are still reluctant to fully adopt the risk-on bias they are leaning towards. The anemic growth being achieved by most of the world's major economies is particularly troubling to the want-to-be bulls.
Of all the global regions, Europe has the most questionable growth outlook. Just recently, the UK delivered a preliminary Q4 GDP reading that was worse than expected and back in contraction, after Q3 growth finally broke a streak of three straight quarters of contraction. If the final revision set to be released on February 27 digs the hole even deeper, it could magnify concerns that Prime Minister Cameron's government may have pushed austerity measures too hard and tilted the UK back toward its third official recession in four years.
German GDP isn't much better, with six quarters in a row of growth below one percent and more of the same expected from the preliminary reading (Feb 14). The German Economic Ministry also made it clear in its latest forecast that this suboptimal growth will continue indefinitely, cutting its forecast for 2013 GDP to 0.4% from 1.0% prior. Measures of factory orders have come in below expectations in three of the last four months as well, a problematic sign for industrial Germany, though it has been offset somewhat by recent improvements in the Ifo and Zew business sentiment surveys.
The advance reading of US Q4 GDP surprised to the downside with a -0.1% reading, which was largely attributable to slower federal government spending. Markets shook off the poor reading, anticipating that the more complete revisions of the GDP data (due out on February 28 and March 28), will correct back to growth territory. Data watchers are also pleased with the trend in US payrolls. After a hiccup in mid-2012, payrolls have been trending higher, with upward revisions almost every month. The last revision brought both December nonfarm and private payrolls close to the key 200 thousand level that is essential for taking unemployment lower from here.
Growth measures in China seem to be stabilizing at the new normal of high single digit growth. The latest data on China showed 2012 growth at 7.8%, its lowest annual pace since 1999, but still comfortably above the new target rate of 7.5%. Though some skeptics don't trust Chinese government data, other measures of economic activity are confirming this solid growth rate. The official China manufacturing PMI has seen four straight months of expansion, though it has been tending to come in below analyst estimates, while HSBC's PMI measure just hit a two year high and has exceeded estimates for four months. In its survey, HSBC polls more small and medium sized businesses that have a tougher time getting credit in a slow economy, so the case can be made that it's a better cyclical signal that the government reading. China trade data has also improved lately, with the January trade balance showing a surprising jump in exports above 14%, the highest year over year rise in seven months. Imports were also higher than expected, another indicator that China's economy is on the rebound. Still the readings of February data may be artificially subdued by the 'Golden Week' celebration of the lunar New Year starting February 10, during which Chinese industry will be largely idled for the spring festival transitioning from the Year of the Dragon to the Year of the Snake.
Political Hurdles
China completes its generational political hand off at the meeting of the National People's Congress in early March. There Xi Jinping is expected to be named President of the country, succeeding Hu Jintao, whom he replaced as head of the Communist Party in November. Mr. Xi is not expected to rock the boat as he takes power; so far the transition has been focused on maximizing stability.
As it has been for the last several months, Washington is still the epicenter of political uncertainty. For the time being, however, a more conciliatory tone has been struck in the capital. As a damage control effort for the reputation of a Congress that appears to the world to be losing its ability to govern effectively, Republicans agreed to delay the debt ceiling fight for three more months (to May 19) and to tighten up filibuster rules in the Senate that have nearly ground legislation to a halt in that body. Congress managed to avert the Fiscal Cliff at the last moment, thanks largely to the personal working relationship between VP Joe Biden and his former Senate colleague minority leader Mitch McConnell, but the New Year's Eve compromise only dealt with half of the problem, leaving the hardest issues to be tackled in the weeks ahead.
The 'sequester,' set to begin March 1 unless a new agreement is hammered out, will cut the discretionary part of the federal budget by nearly 10%, split evenly between defense and non-defense spending. It was designed to be painful enough to both parties to force them into making hard choices and compromises on more targeted cuts. Some Republican leaders are now suggesting that the sequester cuts might be inevitable since further negotiations may require more tax compromises, and some Democrats favor allowing the sequester to happen because it's the only way the defense budget will ever be included in discretionary cuts.
President Obama won't likely be sending a dear Valentine message to Congress in his State of the Union address tentatively scheduled for February 12. If a sequester deal is not being shaped by that time, the speech may include heavy doses of the President scolding congressmen for creating another political cliffhanger (immigration reform and gun violence will be the other big topics).
After the sequester is dealt with one way or another, the next line in the sand will be coming up fast. At the end of March, Congress has to authorize a spending plan, and the GOP has made noises that it will use this as another political football to leverage additional spending cuts. If the appropriations bill is held up, it could force the federal government to furlough workers and suspend non-essential services. This would be a political risk, however, after a similar maneuver to force a government shutdown in 1995 backfired on Republicans.
Europe is also experiencing more political turmoil. Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy is embroiled in graft scandal that might threaten his government. He and other leading members of the Popular Party are accused of receiving kickbacks from a party slush fund during the boom years that lasted until 2008, allegations that are particularly damaging in this time of austerity. Two junior members of Rajoy's party have already quit the government in protest, and the attorney general has determined the allegations warrant an investigation. If the scandal cannot be put to rest quickly, it could destabilize the government and threaten its ability to successfully navigate out of Spain's fiscal and financial system problems, and may even force a snap election.
Uncertain times are also being seen in Italy as it returns to a fully political government after the steady technocratic rule of Prime Minister Monti. With the euro zone the crisis ebbing, political machinations abruptly ended Monti's term late last year and new parliamentary elections on February 24-25 will determine what's next for the country. The Democratic Party (PD) is leading in the polls, following the trend across Europe during the recent crisis years of throwing out conservative governments in favor of socialist leaders (a worrisome trend for German Chancellor Merkel who will face the polls this autumn). If the PD takes power it will likely add to the chorus of the more left-leaning leadership in Europe calling for added programmatic spending to balance the austerity measures that were enacted in the name of fiscal stability. This is a concern for many officials, including those at the upper echelons of the ECB, who worry that the perception of the crisis easing should not be used as an excuse to turn back on fiscal consolidation efforts.
Banks Vaulting
Beyond these political concerns, Europe is also facing currency imbalances eroding its exports and persistent high unemployment rates sapping consumer confidence, yet there have been some recent signs that stabilization has taken hold. Since ECB President Draghi's July 2012 declaration to do "whatever necessary" to preserve the euro, sovereign debt tensions have dissipated and the currency zone has found some economic stability. The situation in Greece has been patched, talk of an impending full Spanish sovereign bailout has all but vanished, and the other bailout program states - Portugal and Ireland - are making strides toward normalizing their debt markets.
At the last ECB policy meeting Draghi shifted expectations away from a cut to negative deposit rates, indicating that it was no longer being advocated by anyone on the council in January. Another surprise development was the revelation that the stronger European banks have begun returning Longer-Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) funds faster than expected - the ECB announced in late January that banks would repay €137.2 billion of LTRO funds in the first week, much more than the €100 billion expected. This seems to indicate that banking sector liquidity is better than believed, though the truth of this will become clearer over time as banks schedule the return of over one trillion euros in 3-year LTRO loans up until their expiration in 2015. One risk associated with this process is that it may create the appearance of a two tiered financial systems, between healthy banks eager to return the funds quickly and less robust institutions that are reluctant to repay the LTROs expeditiously.
Despite this good news, Europe is still putting out fires in the banking system, and even in core countries. Just days ago the Netherlands was forced to nationalize SNS Reaal NV, the country's fourth largest bank, to save it from collapsing under the weight of a bad real estate loan portfolio which endangered the entire Dutch banking system. There were concerns that Italy might have make a similar move with its third largest bank, Monte Paschi, after the bank uncovered €700 million in losses from a complex derivatives deal. Ultimately the Bank of Italy approved €3.9 billion in bailout bonds to stabilize the bank, but the incident raised unsettling questions about how managers at the bank were able to avoid setting off red flags sooner despite the expectation of tighter controls after the 2008 financial meltdown.
The plan to create a new cadre of regulators at the ECB to oversee the continent's largest banks helped quiet the turmoil in Europe late last year, but upon closer scrutiny the plan is now being panned by many experts. The terms of the banking union give the ECB direct supervision over the largest 200 banks, those with more than €30 billion in assets, and less defined role of pointing out problems at smaller banks that are under the supervision of their home country's regulators. Critics say that this failed to address the two cornerstones of a banking union, a joint deposit insurance scheme and a single resolution fund to clean up failed banks. As it stands now, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) rescue fund can only be applied to viable banks, not the "bad banks" that nations have set up to wind down problem assets, which are the banks most likely to incur losses and need external support. So if the ECB demands a failed bank be wound down, the home nation will have to foot the bill, putting renewed stress on the sovereign. Thus, critics say, the inadequate bank resolution regime has failed to deal with the toxic link between weak sovereigns and weak banks. Bank failures and bailouts like those just seen in the Netherlands and Italy could rekindle the European crisis.
Meanwhile US banks are starting to look healthier, at least by comparison to Europe. US banks have trimmed down their collective balance sheets to about 78% of US GDP (compared to Euro Zone banks at 357% of GDP and Japan banks at 174%), making the financial system less of a threat if banks are put to the test again.
On March 7, the Fed will release results of the annual supervisory stress tests conducted accordance with the Dodd-Frank Act, and a week later it will announce the results from the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) of "too big to fail" banks. Last year some banks, notably Bank of America and Citigroup, failed parts of the review based on their plans for dividend distributions and stock repurchases, which was publicly embarrassing. This time around none of the big banks are expected to fail the stress test and CCAR, and many will be given a green light to pursue more ambitious capital plans than in the last few years, which could be a real catalyst for bank stocks headed into the spring.
An area of continued uncertainty for US banks is the implementation of bulk of the Dodd-Frank rules, which were initially slated to be in place in the summer of 2012. Regulators missed that deadline and have continued efforts to write rules, and now appear to be putting the finishing touches on the specific regulations to support Dodd-Frank. That may make 2013 the year for implementation which could lead to some surprises as stricter rules hamper some of the old business practices on Wall Street, and unintended consequences of the new rules shake out.
The Fed, which is among the regulators working to finish the Dodd-Frank rules, has had most of its attention taken by new policy innovations and the launch of a fresh quantitative easing program. After making its first "QE-infinity" policy tweak in December by replacing the Operation Twist maturity extension program with more outright Treasury purchases, the Fed will probably keep a lower profile in the next few months. The committee is expected to continue to stress the communication function of the Fed, reemphasizing that the new data thresholds for rate policy are not triggers but merely guideposts. The Fed will take great pains to point on that the 6.5% unemployment threshold in particular will not automatically trigger a rate hike, nor will its approach preclude other preparations for exiting accommodation schemes.
Each new sign of economic improvement is now being considered as to how it will impact the timetable of the Fed's eventual unwind of accommodation. Surveys suggest that the market expects conditions will improve enough in the months ahead to cause the Fed to trim back its current $85 billion per month quantitative easing program to a more modest monthly amount in the third or fourth quarter. The full FOMC will not openly discuss potential exit strategies in early 2013, but in the interest of the transparency that has been the hallmark of the Bernanke era, some members may float trial balloons in their periodic speeches. One Fed official has already suggested that the unwinding process will begin with raising interest on excess reserves (IOER). Notably the FOMC voters will shift to a slightly more dovish slate in its 2013 rotation, with the leading dissenters of the last few years out of the voting membership, so Bernanke should be able to start the accommodation endgame on his own terms.
Currency Leapfrog
The Fed and their global central bank counterparts will be facing more questions about the so-called "currency war" in the months ahead. Japan has become the front line in the currency war since the country elected its fifth new Prime Minister in five years on the promise of breaking a twenty year economic malaise. So far, newly installed PM Shinzo Abe has followed through on his plan to jumpstart the country's economy by pressuring the central bank into a joint statement with the government setting an official 2% inflation target and promising the BOJ will pursue open-ended asset purchases. This action had the desired effect of further weakening the yen and extending gains in the Nikkei, but it has some disagreeable side effects. Abe's plan may have eroded the independence of the BOJ and it has drawn criticism from other countries worried about competitive devaluation. The opened ended BOJ QE program also had a strange caveat: the program will not begin until January of 2014. This odd one year delay may be targeted at keeping the "jawboning" effect alive for longer, but it sets up the BOJ program to begin when other global central banks will probably be in the midst of winding down their own extraordinary programs.
That timeframe could change, however, when Mr. Abe names his hand-picked replacement for outgoing BOJ governor Shirakawa, who steps down in April. A new BOJ chief who is vocal about aggressive easing could signal a spring offensive in the currency war. Reports say the short list of candidates has been narrowed to four names: Asian Development Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda, former finance ministry official Takatoshi Ito, and two former BOJ Deputy Governors, Kazumasa Iwata and Toshiro Muto. Kuroda once advocated in a paper that the BOJ should set a 3% inflation target, while Muto recently stated that stopping deflation is a top priority and a policy of monetary easing is justified. Iwata and Ito have both proposed that the BOJ should buy foreign-currency bonds to reverse exchange-rate appreciation, with Iwata elaborating that the central bank should double its balance sheet to achieve the 2% inflation target by 2014.
The Japanese press is already speculating that Abe's choice to lead the BOJ could initiate the new easing program as he takes office in April, particularly if incoming data support immediate action. It's clear that the new government is anxious for action, with one senior economy ministry official suggesting openly that the yen would only become problematic in the 110-120 per dollar range, though his boss, economy minister Amari, later backtracked from that statement as unseemly. Other senior Japanese officials and advisors have indicated that a yen range of 95-100 is an appropriate level.
Euro Zone officials don't appear to be ready to take up arms to fight a currency war, but some senior officials have begun to strike a note of alarm. At the global forum in Davos this January, one ECB official was quoted as saying the central bank is "not very happy" with a step toward competitive devaluation in Japan, given the massive quantitative easing programs already being implemented in the US and UK. French President Hollande put a happier spin on euro strength, saying it shows investor confidence in Europe is returning, though he still noted that the euro is now at a "very significant" level which could be problematic.
The issue of competitive currency devaluations is certain to be a hot topic on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in February (Feb 25-26). Senior officials across the globe have already taken note. For example, a Bank of Korea economist recently said "it is not an exaggeration that the global economy will face a currency warTrade protectionism is spreading." The Taiwan central bank has said outright that it will step into the currency market if necessary, and German industrial groups have registered their concerns that the new BOJ policy may cause a devaluation race.
Clearing the Wall of Worry
For the stock market, January's performance is usually a strong indicator for the entire year. With US stocks seeing their best four week start in twenty years, and bonds yields still depressed, equity markets may gain a lot of ground later this year if economic confidence is not tripped up by the hurdles presented this spring in Washington or Europe.
Signs of a strengthening economy in the US could shake the expectation that the Fed will keep up the current $85 billino per month in QE until the second half of the year. But that would require consistent payroll growth over 200 thousand per month and unemployment starting to head down closer to the 6.5% policy threshold. It remains to be seen if and when the "Great Rotation" toward risk assets will be knocked off kilter by concerns about the "Great Unwind" of unprecedented central bank accommodation that looks to start this year.
It is also yet to be seen if the rising talk of a currency war will materialize in a race to devalue currencies or if it's an overstated problem, making too much of standard skirmishes. Despite the griping of other finance and monetary officials, the BOJ plan to boost asset purchases and restart inflation does not appear to be all that radical in the era of fiat currencies of the last 40 years. The Euro Zone appears to be ready to sit out the currency war, despite the euro experiencing the greatest appreciation from it, though the ECB may still hurl some verbal volleys at other central banks if competitive devaluation campaigns continue.
In terms of the dollar weakness, signs are pointing to at least some near term reversal. One top analyst noted that real money US dollar selling has hit an extreme level in recent days (near two standard deviations), signaling dollar weakness is set for a near term reversal, which would erode some of the strength in risk assets. This, coupled with the extreme complacency in the VIX volatility index, suggest as least a short term reversal in the risk-on gusto seen in January.
A short term retrenchment may be a healthy development, creating a base to build off if 2013 is indeed the year the crisis mentality ends. As always, however, this path could be diverted by political blunders or more surprising revelations from the too-big-to-fail banks that triggered the financial crisis.
CALENDAR
FEBRUARY
1: US Payrolls and Unemployment; US ISM Manufacturing
4: US Factory Order
5: US Non-Manufacturing PMI
6: German Factory Orders
7: ECB and BOE rate decisions; Fed releases annual bank stress tests results; China CPI
8: US Trade Balance; China Trade Balance (tentative)
11-15: China Spring Festival Golden Week holiday
12: BOE Inflation Letter and UK CPI; US State of the Union speech
13: US Retail Sales; BOJ rate decision
14: Europe Q4 preliminary GDP; Fed releases Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) for banks
15: US Final University of Michigan Confidence; UK Retail Sales
18: China HSBC flash Manufacturing PMI
19: Europe Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI readings
20: BOE Minutes; German ZEW Economic Sentiment; US Housing Starts and Building Permits ; US PPI; FOMC Minutes
21: US CPI; US Existing Home Sales; US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
22: German Ifo Business Climate; Europe CPI
24 (Sunday): Italy Parliamentary Election begins
25: Italy Parliamentary Election concludes; G20 meetings start (tentative)
26: US New Home Sales; US Consumer Confidence; G20 meetings
27: UK Q4 GDP (2nd reading); US Durable Goods Orders
28: US Q4 Preliminary GDP (2nd reading); China Manufacturing PMI; China HSBC final Manufacturing PMI
MARCH
Early March: China National People's Congress (Xi to be named President)
1: US ISM Manufacturing PMI; 'Sequester' budget cuts scheduled to begin (unless revised or delayed again)
5: US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
6: BOJ rate decision
7: ECB and BOE rate decisions; US Trade Balance; China CPI
8: US Payrolls and Unemployment; China Trade Balance
11: BOJ Minutes
13: US Retail Sales
14: US PPI
15: US CPI; US Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence
19: US Housing Starts and Building Permits
20: German ZEW Economic Sentiment; BOE minutes; FOMC rate decision, projections and press conference
21: US Existing Home Sales; US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing; China HSBC preliminary Manufacturing PMI
22: Europe flash Services PMI; German Ifo Business Climate
26: US Durable Goods Orders; US Consumer Confidence; US New Home Sales
28: US Final GDP (3rd reading)
31: China Manufacturing PMI
Feb 04 2013
RIMM changed its symbol to BBRY - which didn't prevent us from nailing this juicy trade on it.
Very nice day again although we have just about 2/3 of it in the log. Troubles with main server kept us at the reserve one where logging capabilities, turns out, do not cover whole day.
cipher: out .61
(11:30) Threei: SPY can't find footing today
(11:30) Threei: no go CAT
(11:31) Threei: you covered CAN dp?
(11:31) Threei: CAM
(11:32) dptl: yep 1:1 and 1:2 like book says
(11:32) scottie: gj dp
(11:32) Will49: nice dp
(11:32) cipher: infa l .31
(11:32) dptl: ty
(11:35) cipher: cern l .60
(11:38) nemo: lotta' hedging going on VXX still going up
(11:38) cipher: cern stopped .47 -.13
(11:39) dptl: dhidhi
(11:39) dptl: oops sorry
(11:39) Threei: lol
(11:39) dptl: dhi .05 sh?
(11:40) Threei: yup
(11:40) Threei: with .11 stop
(11:40) dptl: missed
(11:41) cipher: cstr l .00
(11:41) cipher: infa l .23
(11:43) cipher: cree l .30
(11:45) cipher: out cree .43 +.13
(11:46) cipher: open l .00
(11:49) cipher: out infa .35 +.12
(11:54) dptl: rhi sh?
(11:55) cipher: stopped open flat
(11:55) Threei: SHI is not enough for you?
(11:55) Threei: DHI
(11:55) Threei: nears 1:1
(11:55) dptl: ye..missed that one
(11:55) Threei: huh?
(11:55) Threei: it returned to entry point
(11:55) jdetente: dhi
(11:56) Threei: gave secondary entry
(11:56) jdetente: missed that one too
(11:56) Threei: spent a lot of time there
(11:56) Threei: how can you miss it?
(11:56) cipher: out cstr .09 +.09
(11:56) dptl: "(....%%%% tv lol
(11:56) Threei: 11:45 to 11:51
(11:57) Threei: 1:1
(11:57) cipher: another decent day
(11:57) cipher: cya tomorrow
(11:57) Threei: take care cipher
(11:57) scottie: cipher
(12:02) dptl: ctxs .50 long?
(12:03) Threei: not sure
(12:03) dptl: ok
(12:11) dptl: el .30 sh?
(12:12) Threei: yes
(12:12) Threei: good-looking one
(12:19) dptl: man...still have charts problem..here data missing
(12:19) ese has left.
(12:29) dptl: so it's just me with charts prob ?
(12:29) dptl: laser
(12:29) Threei: there is a small gap
(12:30) dptl: ah ha.... so it is something there
(12:31) dptl: i have .50 gup on spy 1 min
(12:31) dptl: gap
(12:45) dptl: pbi .35 long?
(12:46) Threei: nah
(12:46) Threei: way too narrow
(12:47) dptl: k
(12:56) dptl: gd .70 long?
(12:56) Threei: hl
(12:56) Threei: jumpy'
(12:58) Threei: Will, look PM pls
(13:06) dino: pay sm l .01
(13:06) Will49: Sorry V ad, just stepped out
(13:06) Will49: Yes, please un-suspend
(13:06) dino: out pay .54, +.53
(13:06) Threei: ty will
(13:06) Threei: wtg dino
(13:07) dino: ty
(13:07) dino: cyou sm l .00
(13:09) Threei: GD 1:1
(13:09) dptl: out .85
(13:10) dptl: 1:1.5
(13:14) thomcbell has left.
(13:15) dino: mhp sm l .90
(13:16) dino: out mhp .30, +.40
(13:20) Threei: Short FB .40 break
(13:29) dptl: eqr .40 sh?
(13:29) Threei: hl
(13:30) dptl: stop .50 or .454?
(13:30) dptl: .45
(13:30) Threei: .46
(13:31) dptl: what about fb stop?
(13:32) Threei: standard
(13:33) dptl: half out eqr
(13:33) Threei: EQR 1:1
(13:37) dptl: half out fb .31
(13:37) Threei: FB 1:1
(13:41) scottie: stop .36 ?
(13:42) Threei: yup
(13:45) nemo has left.
(13:47) dptl: out fb
(13:47) scottie: out +.19 tks Vad
(13:47) dptl: ty
(13:47) Threei: yw
(13:47) jdetente: yes ty!
(13:48) Will49: out .16 tks Vad
(13:48) dptl: out eqr
(13:49) Threei: yw guys
(13:49) Threei: nice day
(13:50) Threei: I like selloff days, even when they are slow
(13:52) dino: cyou stop
(13:52) scottie: I missed a few of your calls this morning Vad, but I'm now above zero, thanks to that last trade
(13:53) Threei: cool
(13:53) jdetente: the days get better and better Vad. Ty!
(13:54) Threei: good thing nemo left... he couldn't handle this much pleasantries
(13:54) scottie: In the other room, I put an alarm on the word setup, don't have it in this room ,lol
(13:54) Threei: will be up tomorrow...
(14:03) scottie: 1:3 should have been patienter
(14:13) dptl: ye, but then you'll have to drink that antigreedin thing
(14:13) Threei: lokl
(14:14) scottie: dks l .80 ?
(14:15) Threei: not sure... 50/50
(14:15) scottie: tks
(14:16) Threei: (US) House Speaker Boehner (R-OH):
(14:16) Threei: Notes President Obama missed the deadline to submit a budget again this year and the Senate has yet to submit a budget plan.
(14:16) Threei: lol
(14:17) Will49: yawn
(14:17) Threei: his only deadline remaining is quitting dance in 3 and half years
(14:17) Threei: "so long and thanks for the fish"
(14:19) Threei: Will, went snorkeling here? http://t.co/ZuwDSXO0
(14:19) dptl: can eqr be another short?.25 short eqr ?
(14:20) Threei: I like it
(14:21) Will49: Great place Vad! Snorkelling is really good off south shore of Maui too
(14:21) Threei: yup, I has been there too...
(14:21) Threei: have
(14:21) Threei: had
(14:22) Threei: but swimming with manta rays, man...
(14:22) Threei: whole otherworldly experience
(14:22) dptl: female?
(14:23) Will49: Yeah, we saw a small one last week
(14:23) Threei: I have no idea dp... they don't interest me in that way
(14:23) dptl:
(14:30) dptl: cbt .85 long?
(14:31) Threei: I'd prefer .80 break shortt
(14:31) Threei: either is hl
(14:31) dino has left.
(14:31) dptl: k
(14:35) dptl: stop to .31 eqr for me
(14:48) dptl: stopped eqr
(14:58) dptl: couldnt resist went for cbt long
(14:59) dptl: +.11
(15:00) Threei: I'll never forgive you for this
(15:00) dptl: just a scalp hl
(15:00) scottie: gj you stubborn dp
(15:00) dptl: o boy..i shouldnt tell
(15:10) dptl: gd .90 long?
(15:12) dptl: no
(15:17) Threei: Short BBRY .70 break
(15:17) Threei: if holds .80
(15:30) dptl: dhi short?
(15:30) Threei: 50/50
(15:30) dptl: ok
(15:48) dptl: ok.....have a good evening all see ya tomorrow
(15:48) Threei: yeah, let's call it a day
(15:49) Threei: have a good evening, see you tomorrow
(15:49) scottie: gn see you all tomorrow
(15:49) Will49: Over and out
(15:49) dptl: aloha
(15:49) Will49: Mahalo
(15:49) Will49 has left.
cipher: out .61
(11:30) Threei: SPY can't find footing today
(11:30) Threei: no go CAT
(11:31) Threei: you covered CAN dp?
(11:31) Threei: CAM
(11:32) dptl: yep 1:1 and 1:2 like book says
(11:32) scottie: gj dp
(11:32) Will49: nice dp
(11:32) cipher: infa l .31
(11:32) dptl: ty
(11:35) cipher: cern l .60
(11:38) nemo: lotta' hedging going on VXX still going up
(11:38) cipher: cern stopped .47 -.13
(11:39) dptl: dhidhi
(11:39) dptl: oops sorry
(11:39) Threei: lol
(11:39) dptl: dhi .05 sh?
(11:40) Threei: yup
(11:40) Threei: with .11 stop
(11:40) dptl: missed
(11:41) cipher: cstr l .00
(11:41) cipher: infa l .23
(11:43) cipher: cree l .30
(11:45) cipher: out cree .43 +.13
(11:46) cipher: open l .00
(11:49) cipher: out infa .35 +.12
(11:54) dptl: rhi sh?
(11:55) cipher: stopped open flat
(11:55) Threei: SHI is not enough for you?
(11:55) Threei: DHI
(11:55) Threei: nears 1:1
(11:55) dptl: ye..missed that one
(11:55) Threei: huh?
(11:55) Threei: it returned to entry point
(11:55) jdetente: dhi
(11:56) Threei: gave secondary entry
(11:56) jdetente: missed that one too
(11:56) Threei: spent a lot of time there
(11:56) Threei: how can you miss it?
(11:56) cipher: out cstr .09 +.09
(11:56) dptl: "(....%%%% tv lol
(11:56) Threei: 11:45 to 11:51
(11:57) Threei: 1:1
(11:57) cipher: another decent day
(11:57) cipher: cya tomorrow
(11:57) Threei: take care cipher
(11:57) scottie: cipher
(12:02) dptl: ctxs .50 long?
(12:03) Threei: not sure
(12:03) dptl: ok
(12:11) dptl: el .30 sh?
(12:12) Threei: yes
(12:12) Threei: good-looking one
(12:19) dptl: man...still have charts problem..here data missing
(12:19) ese has left.
(12:29) dptl: so it's just me with charts prob ?
(12:29) dptl: laser
(12:29) Threei: there is a small gap
(12:30) dptl: ah ha.... so it is something there
(12:31) dptl: i have .50 gup on spy 1 min
(12:31) dptl: gap
(12:45) dptl: pbi .35 long?
(12:46) Threei: nah
(12:46) Threei: way too narrow
(12:47) dptl: k
(12:56) dptl: gd .70 long?
(12:56) Threei: hl
(12:56) Threei: jumpy'
(12:58) Threei: Will, look PM pls
(13:06) dino: pay sm l .01
(13:06) Will49: Sorry V ad, just stepped out
(13:06) Will49: Yes, please un-suspend
(13:06) dino: out pay .54, +.53
(13:06) Threei: ty will
(13:06) Threei: wtg dino
(13:07) dino: ty
(13:07) dino: cyou sm l .00
(13:09) Threei: GD 1:1
(13:09) dptl: out .85
(13:10) dptl: 1:1.5
(13:14) thomcbell has left.
(13:15) dino: mhp sm l .90
(13:16) dino: out mhp .30, +.40
(13:20) Threei: Short FB .40 break
(13:29) dptl: eqr .40 sh?
(13:29) Threei: hl
(13:30) dptl: stop .50 or .454?
(13:30) dptl: .45
(13:30) Threei: .46
(13:31) dptl: what about fb stop?
(13:32) Threei: standard
(13:33) dptl: half out eqr
(13:33) Threei: EQR 1:1
(13:37) dptl: half out fb .31
(13:37) Threei: FB 1:1
(13:41) scottie: stop .36 ?
(13:42) Threei: yup
(13:45) nemo has left.
(13:47) dptl: out fb
(13:47) scottie: out +.19 tks Vad
(13:47) dptl: ty
(13:47) Threei: yw
(13:47) jdetente: yes ty!
(13:48) Will49: out .16 tks Vad
(13:48) dptl: out eqr
(13:49) Threei: yw guys
(13:49) Threei: nice day
(13:50) Threei: I like selloff days, even when they are slow
(13:52) dino: cyou stop
(13:52) scottie: I missed a few of your calls this morning Vad, but I'm now above zero, thanks to that last trade
(13:53) Threei: cool
(13:53) jdetente: the days get better and better Vad. Ty!
(13:54) Threei: good thing nemo left... he couldn't handle this much pleasantries
(13:54) scottie: In the other room, I put an alarm on the word setup, don't have it in this room ,lol
(13:54) Threei: will be up tomorrow...
(14:03) scottie: 1:3 should have been patienter
(14:13) dptl: ye, but then you'll have to drink that antigreedin thing
(14:13) Threei: lokl
(14:14) scottie: dks l .80 ?
(14:15) Threei: not sure... 50/50
(14:15) scottie: tks
(14:16) Threei: (US) House Speaker Boehner (R-OH):
(14:16) Threei: Notes President Obama missed the deadline to submit a budget again this year and the Senate has yet to submit a budget plan.
(14:16) Threei: lol
(14:17) Will49: yawn
(14:17) Threei: his only deadline remaining is quitting dance in 3 and half years
(14:17) Threei: "so long and thanks for the fish"
(14:19) Threei: Will, went snorkeling here? http://t.co/ZuwDSXO0
(14:19) dptl: can eqr be another short?.25 short eqr ?
(14:20) Threei: I like it
(14:21) Will49: Great place Vad! Snorkelling is really good off south shore of Maui too
(14:21) Threei: yup, I has been there too...
(14:21) Threei: have
(14:21) Threei: had
(14:22) Threei: but swimming with manta rays, man...
(14:22) Threei: whole otherworldly experience
(14:22) dptl: female?
(14:23) Will49: Yeah, we saw a small one last week
(14:23) Threei: I have no idea dp... they don't interest me in that way
(14:23) dptl:
(14:30) dptl: cbt .85 long?
(14:31) Threei: I'd prefer .80 break shortt
(14:31) Threei: either is hl
(14:31) dino has left.
(14:31) dptl: k
(14:35) dptl: stop to .31 eqr for me
(14:48) dptl: stopped eqr
(14:58) dptl: couldnt resist went for cbt long
(14:59) dptl: +.11
(15:00) Threei: I'll never forgive you for this
(15:00) dptl: just a scalp hl
(15:00) scottie: gj you stubborn dp
(15:00) dptl: o boy..i shouldnt tell
(15:10) dptl: gd .90 long?
(15:12) dptl: no
(15:17) Threei: Short BBRY .70 break
(15:17) Threei: if holds .80
(15:30) dptl: dhi short?
(15:30) Threei: 50/50
(15:30) dptl: ok
(15:48) dptl: ok.....have a good evening all see ya tomorrow
(15:48) Threei: yeah, let's call it a day
(15:49) Threei: have a good evening, see you tomorrow
(15:49) scottie: gn see you all tomorrow
(15:49) Will49: Over and out
(15:49) dptl: aloha
(15:49) Will49: Mahalo
(15:49) Will49 has left.
Saturday, February 2, 2013
Nemo's findings week of 02/032013
(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html
The week that was:
Very strong Capex, bad housing (was that just the fiscal cliff stuff?) and we had a relatively flat day with only IWM up a bit, and TLT down (as the relationship usually functions). CAT was light on revenues and VMW reported poorly after the closing bell, while YHOO reported strongly. We'll see what Tuesday brings.
The week that was:
Very strong Capex, bad housing (was that just the fiscal cliff stuff?) and we had a relatively flat day with only IWM up a bit, and TLT down (as the relationship usually functions). CAT was light on revenues and VMW reported poorly after the closing bell, while YHOO reported strongly. We'll see what Tuesday brings.
O.K so, Shiller housing index came in strong, and consumer confidence not so strong. Finnies test the highs for the year, the SPY continues upward, and IWM meanders under it's yearly high. After hours AMZN misses....not to worry, it hasn't shown an operational profit in it's corporate existence, but it more than retraced all it's losses from the day. THAT, is what you call a bull market.
I guess contracting GDP was just the excuse the market needed to sell off. We'll probably see more for awhile...this has been a pretty good run. I didn't demarcate it, but IWM bottomed $.03 below S4. Notice how all these markets basically bottomed/topped at the same time late in the afternoon? You'll see that often. You have confluence of timeframes and trading styles within a stock, and you have confluence of significant levels at the same time across these stocks...coincidence?
On Friday, we had what was perceived to be as positive economic news, so we bolted higher. Again, notice how well the levels behave. I also track daily R4 levels. They happen less than 10% of the time, but that means that happen twice a month. Now, I catch some shit from the great-unwashed (old intelligence term) about tracking semesterly and yearly pivots, even quarterlies. Of course, in the shorter term the daily, weekly, and monthly levels (in descending order) bear more relevance in the shorter time-frame. However, I have found that one must observe when different levels become relevant and for how long they stay relevant. You'll be amazed at how long a seemingly obscure level can remain relevant. The key is to pay attention. So, without further adieu, here are the levels for next week:
On another note, a good friend of mine who trades bonds and currency say volume is coming in to defend the current lows. If they hold and go higher, the market will be taking a tumble. If they drop, the markets will probably be going higher. Pay attention.
Friday, February 1, 2013
Market Week Wrap-up
The
"Great Rotation" Continues
- Risk assets headed higher again this week as optimistic markets accentuated the positive and ignored the negative. Money flowed into risk assets in record amounts. Indices surpassed key psychological levels: the S&P500 established itself squarely above the 1500 mark and on Friday the DJIA closed above 14,000 for the first time since late 2007. US economic reports out this week were contrarian and hard-to-read, but on the balance positive. The December headline durable goods reading of +4.6% y/y was very strong, however ex aircraft it was much more tepid at +0.2%. The 2.6% surge in the December personal income data (the largest gain since 2004) was chalked up to the bubble of special dividends paid out before the end of 2012 ahead of the fiscal cliff. The first reading of Q4 GDP was -0.1%, way below consensus expectations, although the data was skewed by an unusual slump in defense spending. The January payrolls were uninspiring, while the December payrolls were revised much higher. In China, the Shanghai Composite rose 5.5% on the week thanks to solid manufacturing data. For the week, the DJIA rose 0.8%, the S&P 500 gained 0.7% and the Nasdaq jumped 0.9%. As equities forged higher, the yield on the US 10-year bond held above 2.0%.
- The first negative reading in quarterly US GDP since 2009 was being blamed on a sharp decline in defense spending, which was a big part of the decline in government fixed expenditure. Data showed that government spending on defense fell by the greatest amount since the early 1970s as the Pentagon anticipated potential 'sequester' budget cuts. Investors concentrated much more on the solid increases seen in business and consumer spending: disposable personal income was +6.8%," nonresidential fixed investment was +8.4% and residential investment gained +15.3%.
- The headline non-farm payrolls numbers were not inspiring, with the +157K figure right in line with the original December number. However, the revisions to the December data to +196K from +155K were a big positive, thanks to the nine-month benchmark revisions. Moreover, analysts blame the weaker job growth, like much of the rest of the data softness this month, to shenanigans in Washington.
- The Fed met this week with little fanfare. After expanding its QE3 program at the December meeting, the FOMC made no policy changes this week, and gave a slight upward tweak to its assessment of the economic environment. As the FOMC rotated its voting membership for 2013, Kansas City Fed President Ester George became the new dissenter on the committee, raising concerns that the continued high level of monetary accommodation will increase the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and cause long term inflation.
- A trio of tech earnings proved irresistible for the talking heads this week. Facebook's headline numbers and user metrics were all pretty solid, and mobile revenue grew to 23% of the ad revenue, however margins were down big on a y/y basis. Amazon missed top- and bottom-line expectations, but investors were heartened by an improvement in margins. Yahoo's FY revenue outlook was strong and CEO Mayer promised continuing improvements as her overhaul process continued. Despite strengths or weaknesses in the reports, shares of all three names were down 4-6% this week.
- Research in Motion unveiled its new Blackberry 10 (BB10) operating system and launched two new phones. The new models are the Q10, with a physical keyboard, and the Q10, which is touchscreen only. The firm also said it would change its name to Blackberry and its ticker to BBRY. After months of hype ahead of the BB10 launch, shares of RIMM sold off sharply after the official roll out.
- Quarterly reports from Ford, Caterpillar and Boeing provided a snapshot of US manufacturing. Caterpillar set a cautious tone for the year in FY13 guidance, offering a very broad range and warning that the outlook is very opaque. Ford's North American business remains very strong, while European revenue fell 25% y/y. Boeing's profits crushed expectations in its Q4 and its initial profit forecast for FY13 was well ahead of estimates. In regards to the 787 Dreamliner, the company said that progress is being made on narrowing the causes of the battery problem and production continues on plan.
- Oil majors Chevron and Exxon both beat consensus earnings expectations on solid y/y profit growth. Analysts highlighted that profits at the two firms and the industry in general are benefitting from high margins on the fall cost of domestic crude thanks to shale production.
- The greenback weakened against European pairs this week as money continued to flow into risk assets. Not even the patchy GDP or payrolls data put much of a break on the upward trend of EUR/USD. Multiple official commentators hammered away at the "euro-zone crisis is over" theme, Europe's new form of mild verbal intervention.
- Data out from the ECB and European banks showed that institutions were not rolling over three-year LTRO funds into shorter dated paper. Analysts said that this suggests the European banking sector was healthier than expected. Reports showed that Spanish banks repaid almost a third of their three-year LTRO borrowings.
- There was a big exception to the trend in European currencies: Sterling. Cable hit five-month lows of 1.5716 and continued to trade under pressure from the potential triple-dip recession risk after last week's Q4 growth reading. Dovish comments from incoming BOE Governor Carney over the weekend were also a factor.
- Japanese officials deflected criticism from the Davos summit against Japan's campaign to weaken the yen even as USD/JPY tested above the 92 handle late in the week. Dealer cited the pickup in US Treasury yields as a factor in price action after the US 10-year yields move firmly over 2%.
TradeTheNews
- Risk assets headed higher again this week as optimistic markets accentuated the positive and ignored the negative. Money flowed into risk assets in record amounts. Indices surpassed key psychological levels: the S&P500 established itself squarely above the 1500 mark and on Friday the DJIA closed above 14,000 for the first time since late 2007. US economic reports out this week were contrarian and hard-to-read, but on the balance positive. The December headline durable goods reading of +4.6% y/y was very strong, however ex aircraft it was much more tepid at +0.2%. The 2.6% surge in the December personal income data (the largest gain since 2004) was chalked up to the bubble of special dividends paid out before the end of 2012 ahead of the fiscal cliff. The first reading of Q4 GDP was -0.1%, way below consensus expectations, although the data was skewed by an unusual slump in defense spending. The January payrolls were uninspiring, while the December payrolls were revised much higher. In China, the Shanghai Composite rose 5.5% on the week thanks to solid manufacturing data. For the week, the DJIA rose 0.8%, the S&P 500 gained 0.7% and the Nasdaq jumped 0.9%. As equities forged higher, the yield on the US 10-year bond held above 2.0%.
- The first negative reading in quarterly US GDP since 2009 was being blamed on a sharp decline in defense spending, which was a big part of the decline in government fixed expenditure. Data showed that government spending on defense fell by the greatest amount since the early 1970s as the Pentagon anticipated potential 'sequester' budget cuts. Investors concentrated much more on the solid increases seen in business and consumer spending: disposable personal income was +6.8%," nonresidential fixed investment was +8.4% and residential investment gained +15.3%.
- The headline non-farm payrolls numbers were not inspiring, with the +157K figure right in line with the original December number. However, the revisions to the December data to +196K from +155K were a big positive, thanks to the nine-month benchmark revisions. Moreover, analysts blame the weaker job growth, like much of the rest of the data softness this month, to shenanigans in Washington.
- The Fed met this week with little fanfare. After expanding its QE3 program at the December meeting, the FOMC made no policy changes this week, and gave a slight upward tweak to its assessment of the economic environment. As the FOMC rotated its voting membership for 2013, Kansas City Fed President Ester George became the new dissenter on the committee, raising concerns that the continued high level of monetary accommodation will increase the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and cause long term inflation.
- A trio of tech earnings proved irresistible for the talking heads this week. Facebook's headline numbers and user metrics were all pretty solid, and mobile revenue grew to 23% of the ad revenue, however margins were down big on a y/y basis. Amazon missed top- and bottom-line expectations, but investors were heartened by an improvement in margins. Yahoo's FY revenue outlook was strong and CEO Mayer promised continuing improvements as her overhaul process continued. Despite strengths or weaknesses in the reports, shares of all three names were down 4-6% this week.
- Research in Motion unveiled its new Blackberry 10 (BB10) operating system and launched two new phones. The new models are the Q10, with a physical keyboard, and the Q10, which is touchscreen only. The firm also said it would change its name to Blackberry and its ticker to BBRY. After months of hype ahead of the BB10 launch, shares of RIMM sold off sharply after the official roll out.
- Quarterly reports from Ford, Caterpillar and Boeing provided a snapshot of US manufacturing. Caterpillar set a cautious tone for the year in FY13 guidance, offering a very broad range and warning that the outlook is very opaque. Ford's North American business remains very strong, while European revenue fell 25% y/y. Boeing's profits crushed expectations in its Q4 and its initial profit forecast for FY13 was well ahead of estimates. In regards to the 787 Dreamliner, the company said that progress is being made on narrowing the causes of the battery problem and production continues on plan.
- Oil majors Chevron and Exxon both beat consensus earnings expectations on solid y/y profit growth. Analysts highlighted that profits at the two firms and the industry in general are benefitting from high margins on the fall cost of domestic crude thanks to shale production.
- The greenback weakened against European pairs this week as money continued to flow into risk assets. Not even the patchy GDP or payrolls data put much of a break on the upward trend of EUR/USD. Multiple official commentators hammered away at the "euro-zone crisis is over" theme, Europe's new form of mild verbal intervention.
- Data out from the ECB and European banks showed that institutions were not rolling over three-year LTRO funds into shorter dated paper. Analysts said that this suggests the European banking sector was healthier than expected. Reports showed that Spanish banks repaid almost a third of their three-year LTRO borrowings.
- There was a big exception to the trend in European currencies: Sterling. Cable hit five-month lows of 1.5716 and continued to trade under pressure from the potential triple-dip recession risk after last week's Q4 growth reading. Dovish comments from incoming BOE Governor Carney over the weekend were also a factor.
- Japanese officials deflected criticism from the Davos summit against Japan's campaign to weaken the yen even as USD/JPY tested above the 92 handle late in the week. Dealer cited the pickup in US Treasury yields as a factor in price action after the US 10-year yields move firmly over 2%.
TradeTheNews
Feb 1 2013
Perfect reversal setup, nice and easy 1:3 trade (that proceeded to above 1:4):
Other than that, perfect end to a great week. 5 winning days out of 5, all are nicely padded.
Session Time: Fri Feb 01 00:00:00 2013
[08:50] {patel} GM
[08:51] {nemo} I hate pleasantries....so superficial
[08:52] {nemo} aw c'mon...bite
01[08:52] {Threei} patel :)
[08:55] {thomcbell} yo guys
01[08:55] {Threei} tbell :)
[08:55] {thomcbell} weird bounce in tlt
[09:00] {dino} gm
01[09:00] {Threei} dino :)
[09:12] {scottie} good morning
01[09:14] {Threei} scottie :)
[09:18] {ese} morning
01[09:18] {Threei} ese :)
[09:18] {nemo} I wish the Kardashians would die in a plane crash
01[09:20] {Threei} traditional act of Fri morning kindness, eh?
[09:20] {nemo} nah...I figure it would be a gift to the world
01[09:21] {Threei} I wouldn't know about their existence if not for such reminders as yours... so I don't care
[09:21] {ese} who are the Kardashians...........is she the movie star
01[09:21] {Threei} still not quite sure who they are
01[09:21] {Threei} vague word "socialite" doesn't tell me much
[09:21] {nemo} no reality celebrities...daughters of the late lawyer who defended OJ and the stepdaughters of Bruce Jenner
[09:23] {jdetente} gm!
01[09:23] {Threei} jd :)
[09:24] {_bbobr} gm
01[09:24] {Threei} bbobr :)
[09:26] {dptl} gm
01[09:26] {Threei} dp :)
01[09:26] {Threei} well... big gap up
01[09:27] {Threei} let's be double careful, not our environment
[09:28] {ese} anyone got a feel for rimm today.........was a good trade yesterday
[09:28] {ese} i'm thinkin up
[09:29] {ese} speaking of OJ.........he's out isn't he
01[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: FB .90 break
01[09:31] {Threei} If holds 31
[09:31] {nemo} mrk
01[09:32] {Threei} target 1:2
[09:33] {ese} L vlo .30
[09:33] {ese} don't try this at home
[09:33] {ese} sm
01[09:33] {Threei} 1:1
01[09:34] {Threei} 1:2, out
01[09:34] {Threei} nice and easy
[09:34] {nemo} NOV tanking
01[09:35] {Threei} Long Setup: RIMM .30 break
01[09:35] {Threei} ugh, late
01[09:35] {Threei} in
01[09:35] {Threei} stop under .25
01[09:36] {Threei} no go
[09:37] {nemo} nov
[09:37] {nemo} sorry
01[09:38] {Threei} wow FB
[09:38] {nemo} pivot .39
01[09:38] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT 99 break hl
[09:38] {dino} mdvn sm s .95
01[09:38] {Threei} If holds .10
[09:38] {ese} L vlo .10 avg .20
01[09:39] {Threei} bounced from .41 nemo... 2 cents precision
01[09:39] {Threei} Invalidated CAT
[09:40] {nemo} look for fb db at .40ish, with tight stop
[09:42] {dino} cov mdvn .55, +.40
[09:45] {dino} emn spike
01[09:48] {Threei} Long Setup: MPK .60 break hl
01[09:48] {Threei} If holds .50
[09:49] {patel} mpk
[09:49] {patel} was it MRK
01[09:49] {Threei} crap
01[09:49] {Threei} MRK
01[09:49] {Threei} sorry
01[09:50] {Threei} back to trigger, same setup now
01[09:50] {Threei} still valid
[09:51] {dino} partial s emn .60
01[09:53] {Threei} Long Setup: FB .20 break
01[09:53] {Threei} If holds .10
[09:53] {nemo} fb
01[09:54] {Threei} MRK target 1:3
[09:54] {dino} emn stop -.17
[09:54] {ese} vlo....wants higher......but.....the.....market (feel me wince here)........won't .....let.......it......do...........iiiiiiiiiiiiiitttttttttt!
01[09:54] {Threei} *(US) JAN FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 73.8 V 71.5E
[09:54] {ese} nice.......thats should do it
01[09:54] {Threei} no go FB
01[09:55] {Threei} wow, a lot of weakness in it
[09:55] {nemo} looks like it will test 29.50ish
01[09:55] {Threei} 1:1 MRK
[09:55] {scottie} +.10 tks Vad
01[09:55] {Threei} half out .74
01[09:56] {Threei} yw
01[09:57] {Threei} 1:2
[09:59] {dino} emn rinsed
[09:59] {nemo} numbers
01[09:59] {Threei} 1:3, out
[09:59] {patel} nice. :) :) :)
[09:59] {jdetente} great trade
01[09:59] {Threei} *(US) JAN ISM MANUFACTURING: 53.1 V 50.6E; PRICES PAID: V 56.0E
01[10:00] {Threei} *(US) DEC CONSTRUCTION SPENDING M/M: 0.9% V 0.6%E
[10:00] {nemo} now let's see what happens
[10:00] {nemo} market not that excited so far
01[10:00] {Threei} I'll tell you... Obama will come out and point out economuc recovery
[10:01] {ese} now now vad.....you know how this gets your blood pressure up.......breath deep and concentrate on the couple of thou you make each day..........
01[10:01] {Threei} MRK even 1:4 but heck
01[10:01] {Threei} me ese? I am cool like cucumber
[10:01] {ese} realease and let go
01[10:02] {Threei} it's optimists whio think bought recovery can work get all hot under the collar
[10:02] {ese} foooooossssssshhhhhhh!!!!!! let that air go.........
01[10:03] {Threei} nailing the reversal on MRK, state of art
01[10:03] {Threei} look at daily
01[10:03] {Threei} .51 low
[10:03] {nemo} yeah, buy .50ish
01[10:04] {Threei} btw, you know what's nemo answer when he is hesitant?
01[10:04] {Threei} "let me drink about it"
[10:04] {nemo} nice one
01[10:04] {Threei} thought you'd like :)
[10:04] {nemo} thanks for the reminder
[10:05] {ese} L vlo avg .25
[10:05] {ese} ok going dn .05 is not an option now
[10:07] {thomcbell} gld gdx under pressure
[10:07] {ese} stop at .21
[10:07] {thomcbell} slw looks vulnerable
01[10:08] {Threei} last time DOW was at this level was Oct 2007
[10:09] {ese} pretty close to when I met you
[10:09] {ese} at the university of Victoria
01[10:09] {Threei} wow, really
[10:10] {ese} indeed
[10:10] {ese} at the bus stop.......and you autographed your bookd for me
[10:10] {nemo} Yeah...Vad calls that his Waterloo
01[10:10] {Threei} lol
[10:11] {ese} but knowing what I know now...........
[10:11] {ese} the glass AK47 filled with vodka would have been a nice signing bonus
[10:12] {ese} as a welcome to the board
[10:12] {ese} I think you should implement that strategy vad
01[10:12] {Threei} that came about later, when I met dp
[10:12] {patel} are most of the ppl in here from canada?
[10:13] {ese} no
[10:13] {nemo} Think we could slip a real AK in the next time you try to get Ese to drink from it?
01[10:13] {Threei} US, patel
[10:13] {ese} are from a canuk patel
[10:13] {patel} canuk???
[10:13] {ese} the crazy ones are from Canada
[10:14] {ese} oops......not true
[10:14] {ese} forgot about nemo
[10:14] {ese} he's worse
[10:14] {nemo} I prefer eccentric
[10:14] {ese} ahhhhhhhhhh
[10:14] {ese} nice
[10:15] {nemo} swn
01[10:16] {Threei} visual: http://goo.gl/EhirW
[10:16] {dino} mn hl s .27 stop hod
[10:18] {ese} gotta love them 1 to 3's
[10:18] {nemo} ehhh
[10:18] {nemo} crissakes, no JD, I'll have to drink wine
[10:18] {nemo} btw long swn .80
[10:18] {_bbobr} Vad, can u please tell your strategy and set-up for that amazing MRK trade
[10:18] {ese} da plane boss da plane ....i mean chart boss da chart
01[10:19] {Threei} hmmm...
01[10:19] {Threei} I can but that'd take quite a lot of time...
[10:19] {ese} uncharted territory with vlo here............
[10:20] {nemo} don't tell him about the chicken entrails Vad
[10:20] {ese} lol
01[10:20] {Threei} see, this is not a creative thinking where I'd analyze every new chart separately
01[10:20] {Threei} it's badsed on a trading system which includes, aside of all the underlyings, a set of standardized setups
01[10:20] {Threei} based
01[10:21] {Threei} which are kind of cooking recipes, listing elemenst and how to put them together
01[10:22] {Threei} I would have to describe whole system, setup, it's elements etc, to answer your seemingly simple question
01[10:22] {Threei} it's = its
01[10:22] {Threei} will it help much if I say:
[10:23] {dino} just say "gut"
01[10:23] {Threei} reversal setup where capitulation is marked by doji?
[10:23] {nemo} GS moving up the charts
01[10:23] {Threei} I guess not, this is compressed description of a few concepts
01[10:24] {Threei} even this course where I pyut it all together is a shortcut, greatly simplifying the system: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html
[10:25] {_bbobr} I did not see any support level there. So u based just on doji candle ?
01[10:26] {Threei} see what I mean? :)
01[10:26] {Threei} of course not
[10:26] {nemo} oh oh
01[10:26] {Threei} doji is one of the elements helping with timing
[10:26] {cipher} cnqr l.64
[10:27] {_bbobr} Thank you, spasibo !
[10:27] {dino} 07 red
01[10:28] {Threei} np... sorry if it's not a satisfactory answer but it woul;d be bastardization of the process to try and answer it in a framework of the trading room exchange
[10:28] {_bbobr} Of course .
[10:28] {cipher} out cnqr .70 +.06
[10:29] {ese} capitulation is exhaustion sellin bb...........no more sellers=buyers or short covers.........
01[10:29] {Threei} it's much easier when one is familiar with the basics of our system
01[10:29] {Threei} then I can answer refering to it
[10:29] {cipher} cnqr l.36
[10:29] {cipher} out .54
01[10:30] {Threei} for instance nemo, after second bottle of vodka, asks me A"what setup did you see there?"
01[10:30] {Threei} and I answer "BMR"
01[10:30] {Threei} and he pretends he understood and nods
[10:30] {_bbobr} Are u watching level 2 ?
[10:30] {ese} yes
01[10:31] {Threei} yes, and T&S,
[10:31] {ese} you have to see sales and volume
01[10:31] {Threei} but they are not directional tools, they are timing tools
01[10:31] {Threei} chart determines setup,
01[10:31] {Threei} Lebel 2 and T&S help evaluate risk and time the entry
[10:32] {cipher} brli l .16
[10:34] {cipher} CHTR L .75
[10:35] {cipher} out .98
[10:36] {ese} if vlo breaks through .40.....skys the limit
[10:36] {dptl} fast .30 long?
[10:37] {scottie} DELL l .80 if holds .70 ?
01[10:37] {Threei} FAST, not liking it
01[10:38] {Threei} DELL, chart is right but it's a heavy slow trader
01[10:38] {Threei} don't count on much or fast
[10:38] {scottie} tks
[10:39] {dptl} cnx .80 sh?
[10:39] {scottie} should've
01[10:39] {Threei} wow, DELL proves me wrong
[10:40] {cipher} dell +.09 thx scottie
01[10:40] {Threei} that was quite fast move
[10:40] {ese} hmmmmmmmm....ok......maybe i should have played vlo for the 2X .40cent moves instead of the buy in avg way i've done it..........taking too long to pay off for my liking
[10:40] {cipher} not too shabby for a slow mover
01[10:40] {Threei} not at all
[10:40] {scottie} yw cipher
[10:41] {dptl} btu .90 sh?
[10:42] {nemo} fcx interesting here if not for this gap up
[10:42] {dptl} in stop .96
[10:42] {nemo} v
[10:43] {nemo} sorry
[10:43] {nemo} is it too early to STOP drinking
[10:43] {ese} hey bb........ya still there.........?
[10:43] {_bbobr} yes
[10:45] {ese} feel free to ask any of us questions at any time....thats how I learned......follow dino for the stragegy that vad had just outlined...........the man borders on genius with that one.......not to mention he's got more guts than Patton
01[10:45] {Threei} just remember that dino's plays are much more risky than our standard ones
01[10:45] {Threei} they are to be done on less shares and wider stops
[10:46] {ese} aside from the fact he lives in the Philly area i think.......but nobodys perfect
[10:46] {nemo} valium, and beta blockers help
[10:46] {dino} bb, do not follow me
[10:46] {ese} rotflol
[10:46] {dino} lol ese, n/e of scranton
[10:47] {nemo} dino is kinda' like that powder hound that goes where the ski patrol doesn't
[10:47] {ese} thats Ohio right...........hmmmmmmm ok well thats worse
[10:47] {cipher} ot brli .20 +.04
[10:47] {dino} pennsylvania ese, northeast corner, near delaware
[10:47] {dino} river
[10:48] {nemo} 3mile island territory
[10:48] {_bbobr} more risky is fine, if it's making more at the end of the day ....
[10:48] {dino} north of that
[10:48] {ese} bb......rotflol (rolling on the floor laughing out loud)
[10:48] {ese} ok ...well then slightly better..........near pittsburg
[10:49] {nemo} wtf got into you this morning ese
[10:49] {ese} well and as we speak..............VLO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! DO IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
[10:49] {ese} lol
[10:49] {_bbobr} I'm around the corner fro there
[10:50] {dino} where yo from bbobr?
[10:50] {jdetente} my brother lives in Pittsburgh...aside from the Steelers fans he loves it lol
[10:50] {ese} uncharted territory............with alot of shares............the feeling of freedom
[10:50] {nemo} mmmfcx arguably short here
[10:50] {nemo} just not sign of much movement
[10:50] {_bbobr} big apple
[10:51] {ese} i love you already
[10:51] {nemo} oh sheesh
[10:51] {_bbobr} ha
[10:51] {ese} one of my most favorite cities on the planet
[10:52] {nemo} vvus
[10:52] {ese} Copenhagen/Rome/New York
[10:52] {nemo} sorry
[10:52] {nemo} I prefer Florence to Rome
[10:52] {_bbobr} same here
[10:52] {ese} and of course Sanichton...........
[10:52] {ese} were vad lives
01[10:53] {Threei} no one loves Zhmerinka or Khazapetovka...
[10:53] {ese} hmmmmmmm............ok.........i gonna have to agree with you there nemo
[10:53] {nemo} how about Chelabynsk
[10:53] {ese} huh
[10:54] {cipher} idxx l .70
[10:55] {_bbobr} Sounds like back to USSR ! LOL
[10:55] {nemo} ua .62
01[10:55] {Threei} :)
[10:56] {nemo} partial .79
[10:56] {nemo} looking for the whole
[10:56] {nemo} or the w(hole)
[10:56] {nemo} oh, I'm so bored
[10:56] {nemo} think I'll see if I can get bunny to come out and play
[10:56] {ese} then folow vlo and cheer from the sidelines
[10:57] {ese} i smell money here
[10:57] {dptl} stopped btu
01[10:58] {Threei} Pew Research Poll: 53 % percent have sense of threat and nearly 75% of Americans said they only sometimes or never trust the federal government to do the right thing.... the FIRST TIME MAJORITY of respondents have described " the US government as a threat against their freedoms since Pew began polling on the question in 1995."
01[10:59] {Threei} but these same people voted in the biggest threat to their freedoms
01[10:59] {Threei} go figure
[10:59] {cipher} brli l.51
[11:00] {ese} fooooooooooooossssssshhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!.............let that air out slowly vad..............blood pressure now.....keeep it low
[11:00] {cipher} out idxx .00 +.30
01[11:01] {Threei} you misreasd my irony and sarcasm for something else, ese
[11:01] {ese} next hurdle........vlo gets by .50........traders should pust it to 45.00
[11:01] {ese} push
[11:02] {ese} i sound like a maternity doctor
[11:02] {ese} I love your sarcasm vad.........
[11:02] {ese} it's cutting and to the point ........as it should be
01[11:03] {Threei} nah, you sound like a unionized guy surrounded by left-wing folks clouding your thinking with their touchy-feely stuff, dcenying gravity and basic math :)
01[11:04] {Threei} you know... folks who think you can tax and borrow your way to prosperity
[11:04] {ese} lol
01[11:05] {Threei} have you seen their explanation for the negative GDP numbers earliwr this week?
[11:05] {nemo} I get a kick out of it...left wants to raise taxes in US. Well, Europe is significantly more taxed, and they're going broke too...how's that working
[11:05] {ese} take a look at the vlo 1 min chart for me........what do you make of it
[11:05] {dptl} aig .80 sh?
01[11:05] {Threei} same as you... .40 break was good, 50 will be even better
[11:05] {nemo} not sure finnies ready to come in yet
01[11:06] {Threei} AIG, no read
[11:06] {ese} tks
01[11:06] {Threei} they find explanations to everything, nemo
[11:06] {dino} i'm w/ya nemo.
01[11:06] {Threei} it's GOP that led to contraction
01[11:07] {Threei} it's bad banks and US that caused troubles in EU
[11:07] {ese} agreed
01[11:07] {Threei} it's anything and anyone but their idiotic policies
[11:07] {_bbobr} ese, you trade on 1 min chart ?
[11:07] {ese} yes
[11:07] {dino} 4 years of obummer, unemployment 7.9%, ouch!
01[11:08] {Threei} 7.9 - even that is only thanks to trick math
[11:08] {dino} agreed, more like 15%
[11:08] {scottie} DRI l 47 if holds .95 ?
[11:08] {nemo} Well, contraction was aided by reduced spending, but the problem is the spending is deficit funded
[11:08] {ese} vads systems are all based on 1 min/ daily for bigger picture
[11:08] {nemo} and you can only do that for so long
[11:08] {nemo} and how long is the rub
01[11:08] {Threei} DRI, yes
01[11:08] {Threei} if you can get it when breaks
[11:09] {nemo} because as the debt builds, the debt service cost rises
[11:09] {nemo} and if interest rates ever go up
01[11:09] {Threei} nemo... but here is the kicker:
[11:09] {nemo} Then again at some level of debt, your creditors say...WTF!
[11:09] {nemo} Then the US goes in and blows them up
[11:09] {ese} bb..........this vlo pattern i'm looking at last 15min......is a classic in vads book
01[11:09] {Threei} even with that deficit spending and QE to the tune of 85B a month, they got GDP conctraction
[11:10] {nemo} yep
[11:10] {ese} mainling at .50 the way it is
[11:10] {scottie} missed it
[11:10] {dino} yeah, pushing on a string
[11:10] {dptl} same
[11:10] {nemo} unfortunately, it violates the reversion principle, you can only expand artificially for so long, and then the system pushes back
01[11:10] {Threei} this tells me that the scenario that eventually unfolds is likely to be different from what most doomsayrs describe
[11:11] {nemo} yeah, nobody knows for sure
[11:11] {ese} if the S&P spyders break up....or futures for that matter......like now....skys the limit
01[11:11] {Threei} thought you would guys, this is typical stock that is almost impossible to get on a break
[11:11] {ese} target for me is 45.00
[11:11] {dino} of course, 3 years of unemployment benefits doesn't encourage people to get back to work
01[11:11] {Threei} the only way to play it is to put in your .02 entry and hope it picks you up on pullback
01[11:12] {Threei} so, scenario... most of doom-and-gloomers talk about hyperinflation
01[11:12] {Threei} I start suspecting this is not what is going to happen
01[11:13] {Threei} more likely scenario, to me, looks like Fed losing control, rates spiking, dollar rising in a rocket-like manner, and huge deflation hitting
[11:13] {nemo} better start, oiling magazines
01[11:14] {Threei} gold bugs will be crushed under this scenario
[11:14] {dino} they will try to avoid deflation no matter what. deflation means they've lost control
[11:14] {nemo} see where those guys used a 3D printer to create a functional 30 round M4 mag.?
[11:14] {nemo} Deflation means banks go bust
01[11:14] {Threei} exactly dino, and I believe this become more likely scenario
[11:15] {dino} hope not, but time will tell
[11:15] {nemo} 148 is R4 on FAS
01[11:15] {Threei} yeah, too many moving parts to be confident in any of possible scenarios
[11:19] {dptl} slw .45 sh?
01[11:20] {Threei} only as aggressive for .40
[11:21] {dptl} with .50 stop?
[11:21] {patel} nice call on DRI scottie
01[11:21] {Threei} yup
[11:21] {patel} gave u 1:3
[11:22] {ese} superbowl this weekend? not sure but i think i saw something that said the opposing coaches were brothers....first time in history.......cool scenario
[11:22] {nemo} spxu a good risk here
[11:22] {nemo} or spy short
[11:23] {dino} yes ese
[11:24] {ese} sunday dinner at mom and dads must be a hoot
01[11:25] {Threei} nothing compared to if they both brought their gay lovers
[11:25] {nemo} one of them was a QB for the Colts
[11:25] {nemo} we're really bored today aren't we
[11:26] {dino} chtr drop
[11:26] {cipher} brli stopped .35 -.16
[11:26] {dptl} cnx .70 sh?
[11:27] {ese} lol
01[11:27] {Threei} CNX yes
[11:38] {cipher} chtr l .07
[11:39] {dptl} out half .61
[11:41] {jdetente} in this VLO trade with you ese.
[11:41] {jdetente} looking good
[11:42] {ese} welcome
[11:42] {ese} yup
[11:42] {jdetente} nice call indeed
01[11:42] {Threei} CNX works
[11:42] {jdetente} also good out half
[11:43] {ese} there ain't nothing stopping this one........upgrade by major institution price target 60
01[11:43] {Threei} bbobr... notice, all calls and questions about various stocks in the room are not random - they aim for those same setups we usually play
[11:43] {ese} probably a whole lot of shorts just freaking right now
[11:44] {_bbobr} I see
01[11:45] {Threei} if you scroll through our FB page, you'll see many of examples posted
[11:45] {ese} just checked the nas website jd.........days to cover is 2 for shorting......but that was on the 15th........wonder how many are left
[11:46] {jdetente} CNX stopped on trail
[11:46] {dptl} ouy cnx
[11:46] {_bbobr} FB page ?
01[11:46] {Threei} http://www.facebook.com/RealityTrader
[11:48] {jdetente} ese what kind of target are you going to take on VLO?
[11:48] {dptl} stx .75 long?
[11:49] {ese} 45
01[11:49] {Threei} hl, STX
[11:49] {ese} probably 1/2 out at .75
[11:50] {ese} am up .36 cents now
[11:50] {ese} have moved my stop up to .52
01[11:51] {Threei} in case you didn't know, ese is a younger cousin of Gordon Gekko, and older cousin taught him "greed is good" when they were kids
01[11:51] {Threei} will!
[11:51] {Will49} Aloha...checking in
[11:51] {ese} lol
01[11:51] {Threei} aree you back?
[11:52] {_bbobr} Ha !
01[11:52] {Threei} enough of that Maui nonsense
01[11:52] {Threei} cherries are blooming here
[11:52] {ese} ok......i have to admit i am doing that today.......but not much anymore
[11:52] {Will49} be back Sunday and in the saddle on Monday
01[11:52] {Threei} and snowdrops
01[11:52] {Threei} OK... safe trip :)
[11:53] {ese} and really i only have 2400shs in this one
01[11:53] {Threei} and stay away from sharks
[11:53] {Will49} truth be told, i've had enough Maui nonsense too
01[11:53] {Threei} hehe
[11:53] {Will49} Thanks Vad, see you soon
01[11:53] {Threei} missing good trading days too
[11:54] {ese} wasn't that the devil we were just speaking about
01[11:54] {Threei} ugh, I love Maui
01[11:54] {Threei} love Big Island more but...
[11:56] {dptl} expe 67 long?
01[11:56] {Threei} hl
01[11:56] {Threei} yes
[11:58] {dptl} amt .10long?
[11:59] {dptl} half out expe
01[12:00] {Threei} AMT, no
[12:00] {dptl} ot expe .20
01[12:00] {Threei} good one
[12:01] {dptl} stx?
01[12:02] {Threei} yes, but probably smaller scalp only
[12:02] {dptl} .80 break?
01[12:03] {Threei} lol... do you really have to ask?
01[12:03] {Threei} as cookie-cutter as they get
[12:03] {dptl} :)
[12:04] {nemo} finnies are at R4 on the daily, spy is above R3 and IWM has .32 to go
[12:06] {dptl} rht .60 long?
01[12:07] {Threei} can't tell
01[12:08] {Threei} US Energy Secretary Steven Chu is resigning from Obama's cabinet, according to a senior administration official
[12:08] {nemo} All the inflows for Mutual funds will be priced at the end of the day...I think everything is held up. Monday we go down
01[12:08] {Threei} I'd say one idiot less, but what does it matter, his successor is not likely to be any diferent
01[12:08] {Threei} for reference, it's that same idiot who proclaimed we need to tax the gas to the level of EU
[12:09] {jdetente} out VLO. thanks ese!
[12:13] {cipher} out chtr .31 +.24
[12:15] {dptl} fast .40 sh?
01[12:16] {Threei} yup
[12:17] {dptl} stop .45 or .50?
01[12:17] {Threei} both are valid
[12:24] {dptl} out half .31
[12:25] {dptl} you think stx can be two sided?
[12:25] {dptl} .70 .80?
[12:26] {ese} went to have a shower got stopped out of vlo.......+.21 have a great weekend all.........1st day of semester 2 for classes
[12:26] {ese} cya monday
[12:26] {patel} cya
01[12:27] {Threei} take care ese
01[12:27] {Threei} I wouldn't short it, dp
[12:27] {dptl} ok
[12:31] {dptl} sigh missed
[12:31] {cipher} VMW s .10
[12:31] {patel} u get it when it came back dfown to entry
[12:33] {dptl} tou know it jump so fast to break .80 i dont think i like it anymore
[12:33] {patel} yeah
01[12:34] {Threei} here is an idea dp
01[12:34] {Threei} bid it at .78
01[12:34] {Threei} if there is a shakeout and it dives under .80, you'lee get in vheaper and closer to a stop
01[12:35] {Threei} if not, let it go, no chasing
[12:35] {dptl} yes.......how about gd sh .15?
01[12:35] {Threei} late
[12:35] {dptl} ah....late
[12:36] {dptl} was waching it all day for set up
01[12:36] {Threei} really?
01[12:36] {Threei} man... you have nothing better to do all day?? :)
[12:37] {dptl} lol
[12:37] {dptl} it'll be good one
[12:37] {dptl} ahhh
[12:38] {dino} au hl s .16
[12:42] {dptl} fast stop to .36
[12:45] {cipher} cov vmw .20 -.10
[12:45] {dptl} eqr sh? .12?
01[12:46] {Threei} .15
[12:46] {dptl} .25 stop?
01[12:47] {Threei} .20
[12:48] {dino} au no go
[12:49] {nemo} chkp might be getting a lunch time cleanup order here
[12:50] {dptl} in .14
[12:50] {dino} au s .58
[13:11] {dptl} eqr stop to b/e
[13:11] {dino} cov au .26, +.32
[13:15] {dptl} eqr 1:1 out some
01[13:16] {Threei} s,ow but confident
[13:17] {patel} that thing is a snail.
[13:18] {patel} looks like STX did give a pull back to .78
01[13:18] {Threei} yes
01[13:18] {Threei} and shot back up
[13:18] {patel} yup
01[13:18] {Threei} just as told
01[13:18] {Threei} anyone took it?
[13:18] {dino} tif drop
[13:21] {dptl} gd .....oh boy oh boy
[13:22] {patel} did u take that?
01[13:22] {Threei} perfect scenario, playing on the smat money side, catching pullback shaking out weak hands - and no one takes it... I remove myself to a monastery
[13:24] {dptl} i was busy with two other pos
[13:30] {dino} tif sm l .40
[13:31] {dptl} out fast
[13:31] {dptl} eqr stop to .06
[13:38] {dino} tif stop -.25
[13:39] {scottie} was away for a couple of hours, now back
[13:39] {nemo} mmmmhhhh...didn't miss ya'
[13:40] {scottie} I know
01[13:40] {Threei} those were profitable couple hours, although not too busy
01[13:40] {Threei} and don't listen to nemo, he cried his eyes out...
[13:40] {scottie} yes I see that
[13:40] {nemo} fish don't cry
01[13:41] {Threei} he was all like "dude, why, why..."
[13:41] {nemo} gag me with a frickin' spoon
01[13:41] {Threei} and we were like "dude, chill, he'll be back"
01[13:41] {Threei} and he was "no, no, he left forever, why, oh why"
[13:42] {dptl} fish dont cry...lol... should not drink either
[13:43] {dino} wtf tif big rinse
[13:43] {scottie} Urban dictionary
[13:43] {scottie} 1. gag me with a spoon
[13:43] {scottie} Exclamation that describes displeasure on the part of the speaker due to something being distasteful or otherwise sickening or displeasurable. From valspeak, so somewhat archaic. Usage these days is considered silly.
01[13:44] {Threei} silly... that's nemo
[13:44] {scottie} Go to last part
[13:44] {nemo} goes back to Welcome back Kotter
01[13:44] {Threei} thisd is just training nemo... I am warming up for will's return, just you wait
[13:45] {thomcbell} scottie was that you with the FAST earlier
[13:45] {thomcbell} annoying
[13:45] {scottie} no
01[13:45] {Threei} I am sure he missed our soldier's humor while on Maui
01[13:45] {Threei} that was dp, tbell
[13:46] {dptl} yep 1:1 and 1:1.5
01[13:46] {Threei} and yes, he is annoying {GGG}
01[13:46] {Threei} gosh... on Fridays my sense of humor hits new lows
[13:47] {dptl} eqr is even more annoying :)
[13:47] {nemo} subterranean even
01[13:47] {Threei} every Thursday you think I hit the hard bottom, and come Fri- - I prove you wrong
[13:48] {nemo} should fit under that worm's belly any day now
[13:48] {dino} tif bohica'd me, stop then runs a buck up
[13:49] {nemo} ahh, did you look at the pivot levels?
[13:49] {dino} yes played s2
[13:49] {nemo} mmmhhhh...didn't get back in huh?
[13:50] {dino} no, was waiting 63.50
[13:50] {nemo} yeah can see that
[13:55] {_bbobr} Thank you Vadim and all . Have a good weekend. Going for skiing for few days.Will contact you next week !
[13:55] {scottie} bb
[13:56] {dino} bb
01[13:56] {Threei} take care bb, have fun
[13:57] {_bbobr} tks
[13:58] {nemo} Hope you join so I can start insulting you
[13:58] {jdetente} yeah it's good times
[13:58] {jdetente} I found out the hard way
[13:58] {nemo} Have I insulted you yet?
01[13:58] {Threei} hmmm... nemo, you mean you can't insult pweople before joining??
[13:58] {dptl} my god...eqr 1:2 out
[13:58] {dino} don't underestimate him
[13:59] {nemo} I'm taking your feelings into consideration Vad
[13:59] {patel} nice job dptl. Patient pays
01[13:59] {Threei} thank you, I knew there was some sensitivity left in you
[13:59] {patel} *patience
[13:59] {scottie} gj dp
01[13:59] {Threei} EQR, nice
[13:59] {jdetente} good job dp
[13:59] {_bbobr} love your room
[13:59] {nemo} Just setting you up
01[13:59] {Threei} thank you
[13:59] {nemo} Yeah, Vad's great with the decor
01[13:59] {Threei} what's not to love... profit, jokes
[13:59] {nemo} got a speech impediment though...little lisp
01[13:59] {Threei} insults
01[14:00] {Threei} no one feels left out :)
01[14:01] {Threei} we just need dp to get married, so he doesn't spend all day watching GD
[14:01] {dptl} lol...yeah
[14:01] {nemo} tell him to get a dog
01[14:01] {Threei} and ese needs to stop advertising my shishkebab
01[14:01] {Threei} I have a big backyard but still, there are just so many people it can accomodate
[14:06] {patel} I just got some custom made skewers for kabobs.
01[14:06] {Threei} yup, mine are too
01[14:07] {Threei} the way they make them here is ridiculous
[14:07] {jdetente} are they diamond encrusted??
[14:07] {jdetente} bringing out the bling, Vad?
01[14:07] {Threei} lol
01[14:09] {Threei} standard north american skewer is round
[14:09] {dptl} ye you have to glue meat to it
01[14:09] {Threei} which means meat will spin when you try to turn it on the fire
01[14:10] {Threei} skewer should be flat, about 1/3 to half inch wide
[14:10] {patel} I put two eggs in the meat and get a 5 gallon of bucket and fill it up with ice and stick the skewers in there
[14:10] {patel} that way the meat wont fall off
[14:14] {dptl} amt short?
[14:14] {dptl} .80?
01[14:14] {Threei} yes
01[14:15] {Threei} hl
[14:17] {dptl} eqr lol
01[14:17] {Threei} wow EQR
[14:17] {dptl} yep
[14:18] {dino} lll drop
[14:20] {nemo} fb
[14:31] {dptl} where would you put stop Vad amt? if triggers?
01[14:33] {Threei} .86
[14:33] {dptl} k
[14:36] {jdetente} Calling it a week guys. Everyone have a great weekend!
[14:36] {jdetente} Good trades this week!
[14:36] {scottie} jd
[14:36] {dino} \jd
01[14:37] {Threei} take care jd, have a great weekend
[14:37] {dino} wonder if he drinks dj
[14:37] {dino} jd
[14:37] {jdetente} for bourbon I will take maker's mark or bulleit!
[14:38] {dino} makers i'm familiar with
[14:38] {jdetente} Just found Bulleit a few month's back. Very tasty
[14:39] {dino} hmm
[14:39] {jdetente} it's kind of in between the super sweet and super harsh bourobns
[14:40] {jdetente} *bourbons
[14:40] {dino} i will try iy sometime
[14:40] {jdetente} on that note. hehe
[14:43] {dino} emn hl s .82
[14:45] {dptl} out some amt 1:1
[14:48] {dino} builders not participating, tol, kbh, hov negative
[14:49] {nemo} they've been on the longest run
[14:49] {dino} doubt its over
[14:51] {dino} mho blood
[14:53] {dptl} 1:2 out amt
[14:53] {patel} nice job dptl
[14:53] {dino} gj
[14:53] {scottie} gj dp
[14:53] {dptl} ty
[14:55] {dino} emn to .62
[14:59] {dino} cov emn .63, +.19
[15:00] {scottie} VVUS l .50 if holds .40 ?
01[15:00] {Threei} yup
[15:05] {dptl} eqr .50long may be now?
01[15:07] {Threei} I think so
[15:08] {dptl} i like when you say yes, or yup...lol
[15:09] {scottie} "I think so" sounds like "it's ok for you but I won't take it, lol
[15:10] {dptl} ye its like 50 50 :)
[15:10] {scottie} maybe it will go up or down... or not
01[15:11] {Threei} rather: plausible kind of marginal setup, not very compelling
01[15:11] {Threei} add koma after plausible
01[15:11] {Threei} or komma
01[15:11] {Threei} or coma
[15:13] {dino} lol
[15:14] {scottie} did you take EQR dp ?
[15:14] {dptl} no :)
[15:15] {scottie} :(
[15:16] {dino} :-
[15:17] {dptl} gd? long somewhere?
[15:19] {dptl} .05 may be with .95 stop?
01[15:19] {Threei} not sure
[15:21] {dino} hptx sm l .01
[15:24] {scottie} ALKS l 22 if holds .95 ?
[15:26] {dino} out hptx .41, +.40
[15:26] {scottie} good one dino
01[15:26] {Threei} ALKS, yes
[15:26] {dino} ty
[15:27] {thomcbell} wild day for that one
[15:28] {scottie} in .01
[15:28] {dptl} hmm i didt get it
[15:28] {dino} hptx, tbell? yeah, kinda nuts
[15:34] {scottie} out -.10
[15:35] {dino} pjc spike
[15:38] {dptl} cam .20 sh?
01[15:39] {Threei} hl
[15:41] {dptl} invalidated
[15:45] {dptl} ok lets not pushing :) have a good weekend all, see ya monday
[15:45] {dino} cya dp
[15:45] {scottie} dp
01[15:45] {Threei} yeah
01[15:46] {Threei} let's have a great weekend, we deserved it
[15:46] {patel} have a great weekend
01[15:46] {Threei} thank you all, get rested
[15:46] {patel} I will see yall week after next
[15:46] {scottie} see you all monday
01[15:46] {Threei} see you Monday!
[15:47] {dino} bunch of slackers
[15:47] {thomcbell} good weekend all
01[15:48] {Threei} lol dino
[15:48] {dino} was waiting for that
06[15:48] * dino slaps Threei around a bit with a large trout
[15:48] {dptl} he he :)
Other than that, perfect end to a great week. 5 winning days out of 5, all are nicely padded.
Session Time: Fri Feb 01 00:00:00 2013
[08:50] {patel} GM
[08:51] {nemo} I hate pleasantries....so superficial
[08:52] {nemo} aw c'mon...bite
01[08:52] {Threei} patel :)
[08:55] {thomcbell} yo guys
01[08:55] {Threei} tbell :)
[08:55] {thomcbell} weird bounce in tlt
[09:00] {dino} gm
01[09:00] {Threei} dino :)
[09:12] {scottie} good morning
01[09:14] {Threei} scottie :)
[09:18] {ese} morning
01[09:18] {Threei} ese :)
[09:18] {nemo} I wish the Kardashians would die in a plane crash
01[09:20] {Threei} traditional act of Fri morning kindness, eh?
[09:20] {nemo} nah...I figure it would be a gift to the world
01[09:21] {Threei} I wouldn't know about their existence if not for such reminders as yours... so I don't care
[09:21] {ese} who are the Kardashians...........is she the movie star
01[09:21] {Threei} still not quite sure who they are
01[09:21] {Threei} vague word "socialite" doesn't tell me much
[09:21] {nemo} no reality celebrities...daughters of the late lawyer who defended OJ and the stepdaughters of Bruce Jenner
[09:23] {jdetente} gm!
01[09:23] {Threei} jd :)
[09:24] {_bbobr} gm
01[09:24] {Threei} bbobr :)
[09:26] {dptl} gm
01[09:26] {Threei} dp :)
01[09:26] {Threei} well... big gap up
01[09:27] {Threei} let's be double careful, not our environment
[09:28] {ese} anyone got a feel for rimm today.........was a good trade yesterday
[09:28] {ese} i'm thinkin up
[09:29] {ese} speaking of OJ.........he's out isn't he
01[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: FB .90 break
01[09:31] {Threei} If holds 31
[09:31] {nemo} mrk
01[09:32] {Threei} target 1:2
[09:33] {ese} L vlo .30
[09:33] {ese} don't try this at home
[09:33] {ese} sm
01[09:33] {Threei} 1:1
01[09:34] {Threei} 1:2, out
01[09:34] {Threei} nice and easy
[09:34] {nemo} NOV tanking
01[09:35] {Threei} Long Setup: RIMM .30 break
01[09:35] {Threei} ugh, late
01[09:35] {Threei} in
01[09:35] {Threei} stop under .25
01[09:36] {Threei} no go
[09:37] {nemo} nov
[09:37] {nemo} sorry
01[09:38] {Threei} wow FB
[09:38] {nemo} pivot .39
01[09:38] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT 99 break hl
[09:38] {dino} mdvn sm s .95
01[09:38] {Threei} If holds .10
[09:38] {ese} L vlo .10 avg .20
01[09:39] {Threei} bounced from .41 nemo... 2 cents precision
01[09:39] {Threei} Invalidated CAT
[09:40] {nemo} look for fb db at .40ish, with tight stop
[09:42] {dino} cov mdvn .55, +.40
[09:45] {dino} emn spike
01[09:48] {Threei} Long Setup: MPK .60 break hl
01[09:48] {Threei} If holds .50
[09:49] {patel} mpk
[09:49] {patel} was it MRK
01[09:49] {Threei} crap
01[09:49] {Threei} MRK
01[09:49] {Threei} sorry
01[09:50] {Threei} back to trigger, same setup now
01[09:50] {Threei} still valid
[09:51] {dino} partial s emn .60
01[09:53] {Threei} Long Setup: FB .20 break
01[09:53] {Threei} If holds .10
[09:53] {nemo} fb
01[09:54] {Threei} MRK target 1:3
[09:54] {dino} emn stop -.17
[09:54] {ese} vlo....wants higher......but.....the.....market (feel me wince here)........won't .....let.......it......do...........iiiiiiiiiiiiiitttttttttt!
01[09:54] {Threei} *(US) JAN FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 73.8 V 71.5E
[09:54] {ese} nice.......thats should do it
01[09:54] {Threei} no go FB
01[09:55] {Threei} wow, a lot of weakness in it
[09:55] {nemo} looks like it will test 29.50ish
01[09:55] {Threei} 1:1 MRK
[09:55] {scottie} +.10 tks Vad
01[09:55] {Threei} half out .74
01[09:56] {Threei} yw
01[09:57] {Threei} 1:2
[09:59] {dino} emn rinsed
[09:59] {nemo} numbers
01[09:59] {Threei} 1:3, out
[09:59] {patel} nice. :) :) :)
[09:59] {jdetente} great trade
01[09:59] {Threei} *(US) JAN ISM MANUFACTURING: 53.1 V 50.6E; PRICES PAID: V 56.0E
01[10:00] {Threei} *(US) DEC CONSTRUCTION SPENDING M/M: 0.9% V 0.6%E
[10:00] {nemo} now let's see what happens
[10:00] {nemo} market not that excited so far
01[10:00] {Threei} I'll tell you... Obama will come out and point out economuc recovery
[10:01] {ese} now now vad.....you know how this gets your blood pressure up.......breath deep and concentrate on the couple of thou you make each day..........
01[10:01] {Threei} MRK even 1:4 but heck
01[10:01] {Threei} me ese? I am cool like cucumber
[10:01] {ese} realease and let go
01[10:02] {Threei} it's optimists whio think bought recovery can work get all hot under the collar
[10:02] {ese} foooooossssssshhhhhhh!!!!!! let that air go.........
01[10:03] {Threei} nailing the reversal on MRK, state of art
01[10:03] {Threei} look at daily
01[10:03] {Threei} .51 low
[10:03] {nemo} yeah, buy .50ish
01[10:04] {Threei} btw, you know what's nemo answer when he is hesitant?
01[10:04] {Threei} "let me drink about it"
[10:04] {nemo} nice one
01[10:04] {Threei} thought you'd like :)
[10:04] {nemo} thanks for the reminder
[10:05] {ese} L vlo avg .25
[10:05] {ese} ok going dn .05 is not an option now
[10:07] {thomcbell} gld gdx under pressure
[10:07] {ese} stop at .21
[10:07] {thomcbell} slw looks vulnerable
01[10:08] {Threei} last time DOW was at this level was Oct 2007
[10:09] {ese} pretty close to when I met you
[10:09] {ese} at the university of Victoria
01[10:09] {Threei} wow, really
[10:10] {ese} indeed
[10:10] {ese} at the bus stop.......and you autographed your bookd for me
[10:10] {nemo} Yeah...Vad calls that his Waterloo
01[10:10] {Threei} lol
[10:11] {ese} but knowing what I know now...........
[10:11] {ese} the glass AK47 filled with vodka would have been a nice signing bonus
[10:12] {ese} as a welcome to the board
[10:12] {ese} I think you should implement that strategy vad
01[10:12] {Threei} that came about later, when I met dp
[10:12] {patel} are most of the ppl in here from canada?
[10:13] {ese} no
[10:13] {nemo} Think we could slip a real AK in the next time you try to get Ese to drink from it?
01[10:13] {Threei} US, patel
[10:13] {ese} are from a canuk patel
[10:13] {patel} canuk???
[10:13] {ese} the crazy ones are from Canada
[10:14] {ese} oops......not true
[10:14] {ese} forgot about nemo
[10:14] {ese} he's worse
[10:14] {nemo} I prefer eccentric
[10:14] {ese} ahhhhhhhhhh
[10:14] {ese} nice
[10:15] {nemo} swn
01[10:16] {Threei} visual: http://goo.gl/EhirW
[10:16] {dino} mn hl s .27 stop hod
[10:18] {ese} gotta love them 1 to 3's
[10:18] {nemo} ehhh
[10:18] {nemo} crissakes, no JD, I'll have to drink wine
[10:18] {nemo} btw long swn .80
[10:18] {_bbobr} Vad, can u please tell your strategy and set-up for that amazing MRK trade
[10:18] {ese} da plane boss da plane ....i mean chart boss da chart
01[10:19] {Threei} hmmm...
01[10:19] {Threei} I can but that'd take quite a lot of time...
[10:19] {ese} uncharted territory with vlo here............
[10:20] {nemo} don't tell him about the chicken entrails Vad
[10:20] {ese} lol
01[10:20] {Threei} see, this is not a creative thinking where I'd analyze every new chart separately
01[10:20] {Threei} it's badsed on a trading system which includes, aside of all the underlyings, a set of standardized setups
01[10:20] {Threei} based
01[10:21] {Threei} which are kind of cooking recipes, listing elemenst and how to put them together
01[10:22] {Threei} I would have to describe whole system, setup, it's elements etc, to answer your seemingly simple question
01[10:22] {Threei} it's = its
01[10:22] {Threei} will it help much if I say:
[10:23] {dino} just say "gut"
01[10:23] {Threei} reversal setup where capitulation is marked by doji?
[10:23] {nemo} GS moving up the charts
01[10:23] {Threei} I guess not, this is compressed description of a few concepts
01[10:24] {Threei} even this course where I pyut it all together is a shortcut, greatly simplifying the system: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html
[10:25] {_bbobr} I did not see any support level there. So u based just on doji candle ?
01[10:26] {Threei} see what I mean? :)
01[10:26] {Threei} of course not
[10:26] {nemo} oh oh
01[10:26] {Threei} doji is one of the elements helping with timing
[10:26] {cipher} cnqr l.64
[10:27] {_bbobr} Thank you, spasibo !
[10:27] {dino} 07 red
01[10:28] {Threei} np... sorry if it's not a satisfactory answer but it woul;d be bastardization of the process to try and answer it in a framework of the trading room exchange
[10:28] {_bbobr} Of course .
[10:28] {cipher} out cnqr .70 +.06
[10:29] {ese} capitulation is exhaustion sellin bb...........no more sellers=buyers or short covers.........
01[10:29] {Threei} it's much easier when one is familiar with the basics of our system
01[10:29] {Threei} then I can answer refering to it
[10:29] {cipher} cnqr l.36
[10:29] {cipher} out .54
01[10:30] {Threei} for instance nemo, after second bottle of vodka, asks me A"what setup did you see there?"
01[10:30] {Threei} and I answer "BMR"
01[10:30] {Threei} and he pretends he understood and nods
[10:30] {_bbobr} Are u watching level 2 ?
[10:30] {ese} yes
01[10:31] {Threei} yes, and T&S,
[10:31] {ese} you have to see sales and volume
01[10:31] {Threei} but they are not directional tools, they are timing tools
01[10:31] {Threei} chart determines setup,
01[10:31] {Threei} Lebel 2 and T&S help evaluate risk and time the entry
[10:32] {cipher} brli l .16
[10:34] {cipher} CHTR L .75
[10:35] {cipher} out .98
[10:36] {ese} if vlo breaks through .40.....skys the limit
[10:36] {dptl} fast .30 long?
[10:37] {scottie} DELL l .80 if holds .70 ?
01[10:37] {Threei} FAST, not liking it
01[10:38] {Threei} DELL, chart is right but it's a heavy slow trader
01[10:38] {Threei} don't count on much or fast
[10:38] {scottie} tks
[10:39] {dptl} cnx .80 sh?
[10:39] {scottie} should've
01[10:39] {Threei} wow, DELL proves me wrong
[10:40] {cipher} dell +.09 thx scottie
01[10:40] {Threei} that was quite fast move
[10:40] {ese} hmmmmmmmm....ok......maybe i should have played vlo for the 2X .40cent moves instead of the buy in avg way i've done it..........taking too long to pay off for my liking
[10:40] {cipher} not too shabby for a slow mover
01[10:40] {Threei} not at all
[10:40] {scottie} yw cipher
[10:41] {dptl} btu .90 sh?
[10:42] {nemo} fcx interesting here if not for this gap up
[10:42] {dptl} in stop .96
[10:42] {nemo} v
[10:43] {nemo} sorry
[10:43] {nemo} is it too early to STOP drinking
[10:43] {ese} hey bb........ya still there.........?
[10:43] {_bbobr} yes
[10:45] {ese} feel free to ask any of us questions at any time....thats how I learned......follow dino for the stragegy that vad had just outlined...........the man borders on genius with that one.......not to mention he's got more guts than Patton
01[10:45] {Threei} just remember that dino's plays are much more risky than our standard ones
01[10:45] {Threei} they are to be done on less shares and wider stops
[10:46] {ese} aside from the fact he lives in the Philly area i think.......but nobodys perfect
[10:46] {nemo} valium, and beta blockers help
[10:46] {dino} bb, do not follow me
[10:46] {ese} rotflol
[10:46] {dino} lol ese, n/e of scranton
[10:47] {nemo} dino is kinda' like that powder hound that goes where the ski patrol doesn't
[10:47] {ese} thats Ohio right...........hmmmmmmm ok well thats worse
[10:47] {cipher} ot brli .20 +.04
[10:47] {dino} pennsylvania ese, northeast corner, near delaware
[10:47] {dino} river
[10:48] {nemo} 3mile island territory
[10:48] {_bbobr} more risky is fine, if it's making more at the end of the day ....
[10:48] {dino} north of that
[10:48] {ese} bb......rotflol (rolling on the floor laughing out loud)
[10:48] {ese} ok ...well then slightly better..........near pittsburg
[10:49] {nemo} wtf got into you this morning ese
[10:49] {ese} well and as we speak..............VLO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! DO IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
[10:49] {ese} lol
[10:49] {_bbobr} I'm around the corner fro there
[10:50] {dino} where yo from bbobr?
[10:50] {jdetente} my brother lives in Pittsburgh...aside from the Steelers fans he loves it lol
[10:50] {ese} uncharted territory............with alot of shares............the feeling of freedom
[10:50] {nemo} mmmfcx arguably short here
[10:50] {nemo} just not sign of much movement
[10:50] {_bbobr} big apple
[10:51] {ese} i love you already
[10:51] {nemo} oh sheesh
[10:51] {_bbobr} ha
[10:51] {ese} one of my most favorite cities on the planet
[10:52] {nemo} vvus
[10:52] {ese} Copenhagen/Rome/New York
[10:52] {nemo} sorry
[10:52] {nemo} I prefer Florence to Rome
[10:52] {_bbobr} same here
[10:52] {ese} and of course Sanichton...........
[10:52] {ese} were vad lives
01[10:53] {Threei} no one loves Zhmerinka or Khazapetovka...
[10:53] {ese} hmmmmmmm............ok.........i gonna have to agree with you there nemo
[10:53] {nemo} how about Chelabynsk
[10:53] {ese} huh
[10:54] {cipher} idxx l .70
[10:55] {_bbobr} Sounds like back to USSR ! LOL
[10:55] {nemo} ua .62
01[10:55] {Threei} :)
[10:56] {nemo} partial .79
[10:56] {nemo} looking for the whole
[10:56] {nemo} or the w(hole)
[10:56] {nemo} oh, I'm so bored
[10:56] {nemo} think I'll see if I can get bunny to come out and play
[10:56] {ese} then folow vlo and cheer from the sidelines
[10:57] {ese} i smell money here
[10:57] {dptl} stopped btu
01[10:58] {Threei} Pew Research Poll: 53 % percent have sense of threat and nearly 75% of Americans said they only sometimes or never trust the federal government to do the right thing.... the FIRST TIME MAJORITY of respondents have described " the US government as a threat against their freedoms since Pew began polling on the question in 1995."
01[10:59] {Threei} but these same people voted in the biggest threat to their freedoms
01[10:59] {Threei} go figure
[10:59] {cipher} brli l.51
[11:00] {ese} fooooooooooooossssssshhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!.............let that air out slowly vad..............blood pressure now.....keeep it low
[11:00] {cipher} out idxx .00 +.30
01[11:01] {Threei} you misreasd my irony and sarcasm for something else, ese
[11:01] {ese} next hurdle........vlo gets by .50........traders should pust it to 45.00
[11:01] {ese} push
[11:02] {ese} i sound like a maternity doctor
[11:02] {ese} I love your sarcasm vad.........
[11:02] {ese} it's cutting and to the point ........as it should be
01[11:03] {Threei} nah, you sound like a unionized guy surrounded by left-wing folks clouding your thinking with their touchy-feely stuff, dcenying gravity and basic math :)
01[11:04] {Threei} you know... folks who think you can tax and borrow your way to prosperity
[11:04] {ese} lol
01[11:05] {Threei} have you seen their explanation for the negative GDP numbers earliwr this week?
[11:05] {nemo} I get a kick out of it...left wants to raise taxes in US. Well, Europe is significantly more taxed, and they're going broke too...how's that working
[11:05] {ese} take a look at the vlo 1 min chart for me........what do you make of it
[11:05] {dptl} aig .80 sh?
01[11:05] {Threei} same as you... .40 break was good, 50 will be even better
[11:05] {nemo} not sure finnies ready to come in yet
01[11:06] {Threei} AIG, no read
[11:06] {ese} tks
01[11:06] {Threei} they find explanations to everything, nemo
[11:06] {dino} i'm w/ya nemo.
01[11:06] {Threei} it's GOP that led to contraction
01[11:07] {Threei} it's bad banks and US that caused troubles in EU
[11:07] {ese} agreed
01[11:07] {Threei} it's anything and anyone but their idiotic policies
[11:07] {_bbobr} ese, you trade on 1 min chart ?
[11:07] {ese} yes
[11:07] {dino} 4 years of obummer, unemployment 7.9%, ouch!
01[11:08] {Threei} 7.9 - even that is only thanks to trick math
[11:08] {dino} agreed, more like 15%
[11:08] {scottie} DRI l 47 if holds .95 ?
[11:08] {nemo} Well, contraction was aided by reduced spending, but the problem is the spending is deficit funded
[11:08] {ese} vads systems are all based on 1 min/ daily for bigger picture
[11:08] {nemo} and you can only do that for so long
[11:08] {nemo} and how long is the rub
01[11:08] {Threei} DRI, yes
01[11:08] {Threei} if you can get it when breaks
[11:09] {nemo} because as the debt builds, the debt service cost rises
[11:09] {nemo} and if interest rates ever go up
01[11:09] {Threei} nemo... but here is the kicker:
[11:09] {nemo} Then again at some level of debt, your creditors say...WTF!
[11:09] {nemo} Then the US goes in and blows them up
[11:09] {ese} bb..........this vlo pattern i'm looking at last 15min......is a classic in vads book
01[11:09] {Threei} even with that deficit spending and QE to the tune of 85B a month, they got GDP conctraction
[11:10] {nemo} yep
[11:10] {ese} mainling at .50 the way it is
[11:10] {scottie} missed it
[11:10] {dino} yeah, pushing on a string
[11:10] {dptl} same
[11:10] {nemo} unfortunately, it violates the reversion principle, you can only expand artificially for so long, and then the system pushes back
01[11:10] {Threei} this tells me that the scenario that eventually unfolds is likely to be different from what most doomsayrs describe
[11:11] {nemo} yeah, nobody knows for sure
[11:11] {ese} if the S&P spyders break up....or futures for that matter......like now....skys the limit
01[11:11] {Threei} thought you would guys, this is typical stock that is almost impossible to get on a break
[11:11] {ese} target for me is 45.00
[11:11] {dino} of course, 3 years of unemployment benefits doesn't encourage people to get back to work
01[11:11] {Threei} the only way to play it is to put in your .02 entry and hope it picks you up on pullback
01[11:12] {Threei} so, scenario... most of doom-and-gloomers talk about hyperinflation
01[11:12] {Threei} I start suspecting this is not what is going to happen
01[11:13] {Threei} more likely scenario, to me, looks like Fed losing control, rates spiking, dollar rising in a rocket-like manner, and huge deflation hitting
[11:13] {nemo} better start, oiling magazines
01[11:14] {Threei} gold bugs will be crushed under this scenario
[11:14] {dino} they will try to avoid deflation no matter what. deflation means they've lost control
[11:14] {nemo} see where those guys used a 3D printer to create a functional 30 round M4 mag.?
[11:14] {nemo} Deflation means banks go bust
01[11:14] {Threei} exactly dino, and I believe this become more likely scenario
[11:15] {dino} hope not, but time will tell
[11:15] {nemo} 148 is R4 on FAS
01[11:15] {Threei} yeah, too many moving parts to be confident in any of possible scenarios
[11:19] {dptl} slw .45 sh?
01[11:20] {Threei} only as aggressive for .40
[11:21] {dptl} with .50 stop?
[11:21] {patel} nice call on DRI scottie
01[11:21] {Threei} yup
[11:21] {patel} gave u 1:3
[11:22] {ese} superbowl this weekend? not sure but i think i saw something that said the opposing coaches were brothers....first time in history.......cool scenario
[11:22] {nemo} spxu a good risk here
[11:22] {nemo} or spy short
[11:23] {dino} yes ese
[11:24] {ese} sunday dinner at mom and dads must be a hoot
01[11:25] {Threei} nothing compared to if they both brought their gay lovers
[11:25] {nemo} one of them was a QB for the Colts
[11:25] {nemo} we're really bored today aren't we
[11:26] {dino} chtr drop
[11:26] {cipher} brli stopped .35 -.16
[11:26] {dptl} cnx .70 sh?
[11:27] {ese} lol
01[11:27] {Threei} CNX yes
[11:38] {cipher} chtr l .07
[11:39] {dptl} out half .61
[11:41] {jdetente} in this VLO trade with you ese.
[11:41] {jdetente} looking good
[11:42] {ese} welcome
[11:42] {ese} yup
[11:42] {jdetente} nice call indeed
01[11:42] {Threei} CNX works
[11:42] {jdetente} also good out half
[11:43] {ese} there ain't nothing stopping this one........upgrade by major institution price target 60
01[11:43] {Threei} bbobr... notice, all calls and questions about various stocks in the room are not random - they aim for those same setups we usually play
[11:43] {ese} probably a whole lot of shorts just freaking right now
[11:44] {_bbobr} I see
01[11:45] {Threei} if you scroll through our FB page, you'll see many of examples posted
[11:45] {ese} just checked the nas website jd.........days to cover is 2 for shorting......but that was on the 15th........wonder how many are left
[11:46] {jdetente} CNX stopped on trail
[11:46] {dptl} ouy cnx
[11:46] {_bbobr} FB page ?
01[11:46] {Threei} http://www.facebook.com/RealityTrader
[11:48] {jdetente} ese what kind of target are you going to take on VLO?
[11:48] {dptl} stx .75 long?
[11:49] {ese} 45
01[11:49] {Threei} hl, STX
[11:49] {ese} probably 1/2 out at .75
[11:50] {ese} am up .36 cents now
[11:50] {ese} have moved my stop up to .52
01[11:51] {Threei} in case you didn't know, ese is a younger cousin of Gordon Gekko, and older cousin taught him "greed is good" when they were kids
01[11:51] {Threei} will!
[11:51] {Will49} Aloha...checking in
[11:51] {ese} lol
01[11:51] {Threei} aree you back?
[11:52] {_bbobr} Ha !
01[11:52] {Threei} enough of that Maui nonsense
01[11:52] {Threei} cherries are blooming here
[11:52] {ese} ok......i have to admit i am doing that today.......but not much anymore
[11:52] {Will49} be back Sunday and in the saddle on Monday
01[11:52] {Threei} and snowdrops
01[11:52] {Threei} OK... safe trip :)
[11:53] {ese} and really i only have 2400shs in this one
01[11:53] {Threei} and stay away from sharks
[11:53] {Will49} truth be told, i've had enough Maui nonsense too
01[11:53] {Threei} hehe
[11:53] {Will49} Thanks Vad, see you soon
01[11:53] {Threei} missing good trading days too
[11:54] {ese} wasn't that the devil we were just speaking about
01[11:54] {Threei} ugh, I love Maui
01[11:54] {Threei} love Big Island more but...
[11:56] {dptl} expe 67 long?
01[11:56] {Threei} hl
01[11:56] {Threei} yes
[11:58] {dptl} amt .10long?
[11:59] {dptl} half out expe
01[12:00] {Threei} AMT, no
[12:00] {dptl} ot expe .20
01[12:00] {Threei} good one
[12:01] {dptl} stx?
01[12:02] {Threei} yes, but probably smaller scalp only
[12:02] {dptl} .80 break?
01[12:03] {Threei} lol... do you really have to ask?
01[12:03] {Threei} as cookie-cutter as they get
[12:03] {dptl} :)
[12:04] {nemo} finnies are at R4 on the daily, spy is above R3 and IWM has .32 to go
[12:06] {dptl} rht .60 long?
01[12:07] {Threei} can't tell
01[12:08] {Threei} US Energy Secretary Steven Chu is resigning from Obama's cabinet, according to a senior administration official
[12:08] {nemo} All the inflows for Mutual funds will be priced at the end of the day...I think everything is held up. Monday we go down
01[12:08] {Threei} I'd say one idiot less, but what does it matter, his successor is not likely to be any diferent
01[12:08] {Threei} for reference, it's that same idiot who proclaimed we need to tax the gas to the level of EU
[12:09] {jdetente} out VLO. thanks ese!
[12:13] {cipher} out chtr .31 +.24
[12:15] {dptl} fast .40 sh?
01[12:16] {Threei} yup
[12:17] {dptl} stop .45 or .50?
01[12:17] {Threei} both are valid
[12:24] {dptl} out half .31
[12:25] {dptl} you think stx can be two sided?
[12:25] {dptl} .70 .80?
[12:26] {ese} went to have a shower got stopped out of vlo.......+.21 have a great weekend all.........1st day of semester 2 for classes
[12:26] {ese} cya monday
[12:26] {patel} cya
01[12:27] {Threei} take care ese
01[12:27] {Threei} I wouldn't short it, dp
[12:27] {dptl} ok
[12:31] {dptl} sigh missed
[12:31] {cipher} VMW s .10
[12:31] {patel} u get it when it came back dfown to entry
[12:33] {dptl} tou know it jump so fast to break .80 i dont think i like it anymore
[12:33] {patel} yeah
01[12:34] {Threei} here is an idea dp
01[12:34] {Threei} bid it at .78
01[12:34] {Threei} if there is a shakeout and it dives under .80, you'lee get in vheaper and closer to a stop
01[12:35] {Threei} if not, let it go, no chasing
[12:35] {dptl} yes.......how about gd sh .15?
01[12:35] {Threei} late
[12:35] {dptl} ah....late
[12:36] {dptl} was waching it all day for set up
01[12:36] {Threei} really?
01[12:36] {Threei} man... you have nothing better to do all day?? :)
[12:37] {dptl} lol
[12:37] {dptl} it'll be good one
[12:37] {dptl} ahhh
[12:38] {dino} au hl s .16
[12:42] {dptl} fast stop to .36
[12:45] {cipher} cov vmw .20 -.10
[12:45] {dptl} eqr sh? .12?
01[12:46] {Threei} .15
[12:46] {dptl} .25 stop?
01[12:47] {Threei} .20
[12:48] {dino} au no go
[12:49] {nemo} chkp might be getting a lunch time cleanup order here
[12:50] {dptl} in .14
[12:50] {dino} au s .58
[13:11] {dptl} eqr stop to b/e
[13:11] {dino} cov au .26, +.32
[13:15] {dptl} eqr 1:1 out some
01[13:16] {Threei} s,ow but confident
[13:17] {patel} that thing is a snail.
[13:18] {patel} looks like STX did give a pull back to .78
01[13:18] {Threei} yes
01[13:18] {Threei} and shot back up
[13:18] {patel} yup
01[13:18] {Threei} just as told
01[13:18] {Threei} anyone took it?
[13:18] {dino} tif drop
[13:21] {dptl} gd .....oh boy oh boy
[13:22] {patel} did u take that?
01[13:22] {Threei} perfect scenario, playing on the smat money side, catching pullback shaking out weak hands - and no one takes it... I remove myself to a monastery
[13:24] {dptl} i was busy with two other pos
[13:30] {dino} tif sm l .40
[13:31] {dptl} out fast
[13:31] {dptl} eqr stop to .06
[13:38] {dino} tif stop -.25
[13:39] {scottie} was away for a couple of hours, now back
[13:39] {nemo} mmmmhhhh...didn't miss ya'
[13:40] {scottie} I know
01[13:40] {Threei} those were profitable couple hours, although not too busy
01[13:40] {Threei} and don't listen to nemo, he cried his eyes out...
[13:40] {scottie} yes I see that
[13:40] {nemo} fish don't cry
01[13:41] {Threei} he was all like "dude, why, why..."
[13:41] {nemo} gag me with a frickin' spoon
01[13:41] {Threei} and we were like "dude, chill, he'll be back"
01[13:41] {Threei} and he was "no, no, he left forever, why, oh why"
[13:42] {dptl} fish dont cry...lol... should not drink either
[13:43] {dino} wtf tif big rinse
[13:43] {scottie} Urban dictionary
[13:43] {scottie} 1. gag me with a spoon
[13:43] {scottie} Exclamation that describes displeasure on the part of the speaker due to something being distasteful or otherwise sickening or displeasurable. From valspeak, so somewhat archaic. Usage these days is considered silly.
01[13:44] {Threei} silly... that's nemo
[13:44] {scottie} Go to last part
[13:44] {nemo} goes back to Welcome back Kotter
01[13:44] {Threei} thisd is just training nemo... I am warming up for will's return, just you wait
[13:45] {thomcbell} scottie was that you with the FAST earlier
[13:45] {thomcbell} annoying
[13:45] {scottie} no
01[13:45] {Threei} I am sure he missed our soldier's humor while on Maui
01[13:45] {Threei} that was dp, tbell
[13:46] {dptl} yep 1:1 and 1:1.5
01[13:46] {Threei} and yes, he is annoying {GGG}
01[13:46] {Threei} gosh... on Fridays my sense of humor hits new lows
[13:47] {dptl} eqr is even more annoying :)
[13:47] {nemo} subterranean even
01[13:47] {Threei} every Thursday you think I hit the hard bottom, and come Fri- - I prove you wrong
[13:48] {nemo} should fit under that worm's belly any day now
[13:48] {dino} tif bohica'd me, stop then runs a buck up
[13:49] {nemo} ahh, did you look at the pivot levels?
[13:49] {dino} yes played s2
[13:49] {nemo} mmmhhhh...didn't get back in huh?
[13:50] {dino} no, was waiting 63.50
[13:50] {nemo} yeah can see that
[13:55] {_bbobr} Thank you Vadim and all . Have a good weekend. Going for skiing for few days.Will contact you next week !
[13:55] {scottie} bb
[13:56] {dino} bb
01[13:56] {Threei} take care bb, have fun
[13:57] {_bbobr} tks
[13:58] {nemo} Hope you join so I can start insulting you
[13:58] {jdetente} yeah it's good times
[13:58] {jdetente} I found out the hard way
[13:58] {nemo} Have I insulted you yet?
01[13:58] {Threei} hmmm... nemo, you mean you can't insult pweople before joining??
[13:58] {dptl} my god...eqr 1:2 out
[13:58] {dino} don't underestimate him
[13:59] {nemo} I'm taking your feelings into consideration Vad
[13:59] {patel} nice job dptl. Patient pays
01[13:59] {Threei} thank you, I knew there was some sensitivity left in you
[13:59] {patel} *patience
[13:59] {scottie} gj dp
01[13:59] {Threei} EQR, nice
[13:59] {jdetente} good job dp
[13:59] {_bbobr} love your room
[13:59] {nemo} Just setting you up
01[13:59] {Threei} thank you
[13:59] {nemo} Yeah, Vad's great with the decor
01[13:59] {Threei} what's not to love... profit, jokes
[13:59] {nemo} got a speech impediment though...little lisp
01[13:59] {Threei} insults
01[14:00] {Threei} no one feels left out :)
01[14:01] {Threei} we just need dp to get married, so he doesn't spend all day watching GD
[14:01] {dptl} lol...yeah
[14:01] {nemo} tell him to get a dog
01[14:01] {Threei} and ese needs to stop advertising my shishkebab
01[14:01] {Threei} I have a big backyard but still, there are just so many people it can accomodate
[14:06] {patel} I just got some custom made skewers for kabobs.
01[14:06] {Threei} yup, mine are too
01[14:07] {Threei} the way they make them here is ridiculous
[14:07] {jdetente} are they diamond encrusted??
[14:07] {jdetente} bringing out the bling, Vad?
01[14:07] {Threei} lol
01[14:09] {Threei} standard north american skewer is round
[14:09] {dptl} ye you have to glue meat to it
01[14:09] {Threei} which means meat will spin when you try to turn it on the fire
01[14:10] {Threei} skewer should be flat, about 1/3 to half inch wide
[14:10] {patel} I put two eggs in the meat and get a 5 gallon of bucket and fill it up with ice and stick the skewers in there
[14:10] {patel} that way the meat wont fall off
[14:14] {dptl} amt short?
[14:14] {dptl} .80?
01[14:14] {Threei} yes
01[14:15] {Threei} hl
[14:17] {dptl} eqr lol
01[14:17] {Threei} wow EQR
[14:17] {dptl} yep
[14:18] {dino} lll drop
[14:20] {nemo} fb
[14:31] {dptl} where would you put stop Vad amt? if triggers?
01[14:33] {Threei} .86
[14:33] {dptl} k
[14:36] {jdetente} Calling it a week guys. Everyone have a great weekend!
[14:36] {jdetente} Good trades this week!
[14:36] {scottie} jd
[14:36] {dino} \jd
01[14:37] {Threei} take care jd, have a great weekend
[14:37] {dino} wonder if he drinks dj
[14:37] {dino} jd
[14:37] {jdetente} for bourbon I will take maker's mark or bulleit!
[14:38] {dino} makers i'm familiar with
[14:38] {jdetente} Just found Bulleit a few month's back. Very tasty
[14:39] {dino} hmm
[14:39] {jdetente} it's kind of in between the super sweet and super harsh bourobns
[14:40] {jdetente} *bourbons
[14:40] {dino} i will try iy sometime
[14:40] {jdetente} on that note. hehe
[14:43] {dino} emn hl s .82
[14:45] {dptl} out some amt 1:1
[14:48] {dino} builders not participating, tol, kbh, hov negative
[14:49] {nemo} they've been on the longest run
[14:49] {dino} doubt its over
[14:51] {dino} mho blood
[14:53] {dptl} 1:2 out amt
[14:53] {patel} nice job dptl
[14:53] {dino} gj
[14:53] {scottie} gj dp
[14:53] {dptl} ty
[14:55] {dino} emn to .62
[14:59] {dino} cov emn .63, +.19
[15:00] {scottie} VVUS l .50 if holds .40 ?
01[15:00] {Threei} yup
[15:05] {dptl} eqr .50long may be now?
01[15:07] {Threei} I think so
[15:08] {dptl} i like when you say yes, or yup...lol
[15:09] {scottie} "I think so" sounds like "it's ok for you but I won't take it, lol
[15:10] {dptl} ye its like 50 50 :)
[15:10] {scottie} maybe it will go up or down... or not
01[15:11] {Threei} rather: plausible kind of marginal setup, not very compelling
01[15:11] {Threei} add koma after plausible
01[15:11] {Threei} or komma
01[15:11] {Threei} or coma
[15:13] {dino} lol
[15:14] {scottie} did you take EQR dp ?
[15:14] {dptl} no :)
[15:15] {scottie} :(
[15:16] {dino} :-
[15:17] {dptl} gd? long somewhere?
[15:19] {dptl} .05 may be with .95 stop?
01[15:19] {Threei} not sure
[15:21] {dino} hptx sm l .01
[15:24] {scottie} ALKS l 22 if holds .95 ?
[15:26] {dino} out hptx .41, +.40
[15:26] {scottie} good one dino
01[15:26] {Threei} ALKS, yes
[15:26] {dino} ty
[15:27] {thomcbell} wild day for that one
[15:28] {scottie} in .01
[15:28] {dptl} hmm i didt get it
[15:28] {dino} hptx, tbell? yeah, kinda nuts
[15:34] {scottie} out -.10
[15:35] {dino} pjc spike
[15:38] {dptl} cam .20 sh?
01[15:39] {Threei} hl
[15:41] {dptl} invalidated
[15:45] {dptl} ok lets not pushing :) have a good weekend all, see ya monday
[15:45] {dino} cya dp
[15:45] {scottie} dp
01[15:45] {Threei} yeah
01[15:46] {Threei} let's have a great weekend, we deserved it
[15:46] {patel} have a great weekend
01[15:46] {Threei} thank you all, get rested
[15:46] {patel} I will see yall week after next
[15:46] {scottie} see you all monday
01[15:46] {Threei} see you Monday!
[15:47] {dino} bunch of slackers
[15:47] {thomcbell} good weekend all
01[15:48] {Threei} lol dino
[15:48] {dino} was waiting for that
06[15:48] * dino slaps Threei around a bit with a large trout
[15:48] {dptl} he he :)
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