Friday, March 7, 2014

March 07 2014

Much better day as some rhythm re-emerged. A few 1:3 and 1:2 trades made a decent trading session; notable ones were short on C and long on VXX.

 Session Time: Fri Mar 07 00:00:00 2014
[08:29] {nemo} Here it comes....
[08:29] {nemo} must be good
[08:29] {nemo} 190 here we come
[08:29] {fish_49} ohhh mmyyy  fun spike
[08:30] {nemo} only if you were in
[08:30] {nemo} makes sense though, if it was bad, it would be the weather, if it was good.yippeeee
[08:30] {fish_49} i joined my Futures class late  they were short YM and NQ  glad I was late to class  lol  they stopped out
[08:30] {nemo} should have known when Goldman Sucks came out yesterday saying it would be a big miss...trying to get people out of the way
[08:31] {nemo} short made no sense given previous reaction to misses, especially with the weather
[08:32] {nemo} we've already hit R4 on the daily although the range is only about half the 20 day average
[08:33] {fish_49} the numbers were positive...  We trade up on negative news  and we trade up on positive news...  Go figure
[08:34] {fish_49} ther folks that took the upper zone  on the NQ  are gonna be fine
[08:34] {nemo} so big gap up, gonna' be a quiet day trading...that's a bull market fish
[08:34] {nemo} when you trade down on good news, then we'll start thinking bear
[08:35] {fish_49} well that has been the case while Feds were not clear on tapering  but  now they are firm
[08:35] {nemo} yeah, and economy is showing strength without the Fed's training wheels
[08:36] {fish_49} in my humble opinion  the issue is now  "when do we raise rates"  and that key number was when the unemployment rate hits 6.5 and stays there or below 6.5  for awhile
[08:36] {nemo} yeah, and the unemployment rate went up
[08:37] {nemo} I think they've said, not until 2015 at least
[08:37] {fish_49} they can't say that
[08:37] {fish_49} they dont have crystal ball toad
[08:38] {nemo} they did say that
[08:38] {nemo} they have to finance the government debt also
[08:38] {nemo} that's unspoken in this
[08:40] {fish_49} GC fell like a brick but now in Demand zone..  lets see if it can break down in that  zone
[08:43] {_illyakuryakin} GC?
[08:43] {nemo} futures illya
[08:44] {fish_49} Gold
[08:44] {_illyakuryakin} ah
[08:44] {nemo} likely going to be a very quiet trading day here
[08:44] {_illyakuryakin} yea...no war
[08:45] {nemo} no, gap up
[08:45] {nemo} if this doesn't close, doesn't give you much range to work with
[08:46] {nemo} index gaps, tend to bring most of what is in that index with it
[08:47] {_illyakuryakin} 20.80 silver at this time
[08:47] {fish_49} unless Ukraine news then we are in the Hurry up and wait stage?  Gap up and wait
[08:47] {fish_49} illy you trade silver?
[08:47] {_illyakuryakin} it has better movement these days
[08:48] {_illyakuryakin} i like to watch
[08:48] {nemo} like to stick ur chin out, huh?
[08:48] {fish_49} yea  But the Silver Futures  trades at $25 a tick  too much risk for me...
[08:48] {_illyakuryakin} below $19...yes
[08:49] {nemo} we're supposed to get above freezing today
[08:49] {fish_49} 50 here tomorrow
[08:50] {_illyakuryakin} that would be a sell nemo
[08:50] {fish_49} I have some outside work to do and need some warm weather
01[08:51] {@Threei}  Russian soldiers may be the only tourists in Crimea this year
01[08:51] {@Threei}  I guess, lol
[08:52] {_illyakuryakin} no sailors?
01[08:52] {@Threei}  they are stationed permanently... they are not tourists
[08:54] {_illyakuryakin} confusing
01[08:55] {@Threei}  why... sailors are locals, soldiers are tourists
01[08:55] {@Threei}  easy
[08:55] {fish_49} Russian Navy in that port or Ukraine Navy?
01[08:55] {@Threei}  both
[08:55] {fish_49} I mean on a regular basis
01[08:55] {@Threei}  yup
[08:55] {_illyakuryakin} they must be buds
[08:55] {fish_49} wow  and they get along fine?
01[08:56] {@Threei}  used to be up to a week ago
[08:56] {fish_49} share the same hookers
[08:56] {_illyakuryakin} we need F-1 to start up
[09:09] {dino} gm
01[09:09] {@Threei}  first Obama-Putin phone discussion on Ukraine took and hour and a half. Second, just an hour. At this rate in a year they'll be done in a minute. "- Hello! - Hi! - You still in? - Yup. - OK, talk to you in a week. My best to yours!"
01[09:09] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:11] {thomcbell} feye priced secondary at 82 should be a wild one
[09:11] {thomcbell} was crazy strong on wednesday
01[09:11] {@Threei}  "- Don't even want me to get out anymore? - Ah, what's the point, you won't anyway." Both laugh in a good-hearted way
[09:15] {RonS} hello everyone
01[09:15] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:16] {fish_49} GM Ron
[09:23] {_illyakuryakin} curious about that precious metals gap this morning...
[09:23] {_illyakuryakin} new shorts?
01[09:24] {@Threei}  or longs exit
01[09:24] {@Threei}  or mix
[09:24] {nemo} good jobs, Ukraine quieting down
01[09:24] {@Threei}  only as long as world accepts that Crimea is gone
[09:24] {_illyakuryakin} gone where?
01[09:25] {@Threei}  from Ukraine
01[09:25] {@Threei}  to Russia
[09:25] {_illyakuryakin} oh
[09:25] {ese} gm
01[09:25] {@Threei}  ese :)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  and new round of EU talks will launch new fit by Russia
[09:26] {_illyakuryakin} chess players get fits?
01[09:27] {@Threei}  look at the map... Ukraine as a NATO member means 600 km from NATO rockets to Moscow, rendering air defenses useless. Russia sees this as existential threat
[09:27] {munky} morm
01[09:28] {@Threei}  munky :)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  crap... GLD and GDX broke down before open
[09:29] {mojo1} g day!
01[09:29] {@Threei}  mojo :)
01[09:31] {@Threei} Long Setup:  EBAY  .50 break
01[09:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[09:32] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:33] {@Threei}  JASO Roth Capital Initiates JASO with Buy, price target: $15
01[09:34] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  120 b reak
01[09:34] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:36] {@Threei}  stop .94
01[09:37] {@Threei}  meh
01[09:38] {@Threei} Long Setup:  GLD  .50 break
01[09:38] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[09:42] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[09:42] {dino} skul s .61
[09:44] {mojo1} dino sm smr
01[09:44] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .40 break
01[09:44] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
[09:45] {fish_49} ouch
01[09:45] {@Threei}  nope
01[09:46] {@Threei}  rinse...
01[09:46] {@Threei}  ^%#()$@
[09:48] {dino} mojo fl
01[09:48] {@Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .25 break
01[09:48] {@Threei}  If holds  .35
[09:48] {dino} bstop is .73
[09:48] {ese} employment numbers come out
[09:49] {dino} skul stop -.13
01[09:51] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:55] {dino} rinsed
01[09:55] {@Threei}  1/4 more out
01[09:55] {@Threei}  stop .21
01[09:57] {@Threei}  stop .16
01[09:59] {@Threei}  out
[09:59] {fish_49} out
[09:59] {fish_49} ty
01[09:59] {@Threei}  yw
[10:02] {dino} .
01[10:02] {@Threei}  good point
[10:02] {nemo} sick of that meme
01[10:03] {@Threei}  that's because you have negative outlook
[10:03] {RonS} gme sm l .80
01[10:04] {@Threei}  embrace the positivity... eschew your nature
[10:06] {RonS} eschew your handkerchief...
[10:06] {dino} stx sm l .51
01[10:07] {@Threei} Short Setup: P  .40 break hl
01[10:07] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
[10:07] {ese} anybody here wanto to buy a Musser M250 Concert Grand Marimba.....am thinking about parting with it......my days of playing in symphony orchestras here in Canada is over i'm thinkin
01[10:08] {@Threei}  I was just thinking of starting concert tour
[10:08] {fish_49} How many rounds does the magazine hold  ese?
01[10:08] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:08] {ese} LOL!!!
[10:09] {fish_49} when I clicked P it was already at .35  can't count that one Vad
01[10:10] {@Threei}  .38 was there long enough...
[10:12] {dino} incy pulp, smr l .00
[10:13] {dino} stx stop .18 -.33
01[10:13] {@Threei}  watching C for pullback entry
[10:15] {thomcbell} vad u got your chaos today
01[10:16] {@Threei}  I want panic
[10:16] {fish_49} how deep of a pullback would you want on C  .92 enough?
01[10:17] {@Threei}  around .90, yes
01[10:17] {@Threei}  ideally, just under
[10:17] {fish_49} ok  .88 buy the break of .90  lol
01[10:18] {@Threei}  no luck
[10:18] {munky} why u think mkt panic? mkt up 70
[10:18] {fish_49} .15 will cause pullback
01[10:19] {@Threei}  I don't "think," I "want"
[10:19] {munky} ah
[10:19] {munky} we all want things
[10:19] {munky} i want u to call 4 in a row 1:3 lol
[10:20] {fish_49} Munky the market not up 70  the market down 7.5  lol
[10:20] {RonS} out gme on trail +.29
[10:20] {fish_49} NQ is the weak one again today
01[10:27] {@Threei} Short Setup: C  .10 break
[10:27] {dino} out incy 64.10, +1.10
01[10:27] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
[10:27] {RonS} gj
01[10:27] {@Threei}  wtg dino
[10:27] {dino} ty
[10:30] {munky} out incy .64.23 half
[10:30] {thomcbell} fb wow
[10:30] {thomcbell} its trying to put itself together here
[10:31] {dino} stx rinsed too, thats 2 today
[10:33] {mojo1} ty dino
[10:33] {dino} ?
01[10:40] {@Threei}  stop to .16
[10:42] {dino} partial fill rnet l .83
[10:42] {dino} .82
01[10:43] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:43] {dino} gj
[10:44] {goinshort} 1:1 C
[10:44] {munky} c 1`:1 vad
[10:44] {munky} ty
[10:45] {mojo1} 1:1 ty
01[10:45] {@Threei}  yw
[10:45] {munky} 1;2
01[10:46] {@Threei}  1:2
[10:48] {goinshort} 1:2
01[10:48] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:48] {@Threei}  out
[10:49] {goinshort} 1:3 out thanks V - nice one
01[10:49] {@Threei}  :)
[10:49] {munky} 1;3 out ty
01[10:49] {@Threei}  yw
01[10:49] {@Threei}  ok fish... if you tell me you missed it I am going to cry
[10:50] {mojo1} 1:3 thanks vad
01[10:50] {@Threei}  actually worse than that... I am going to drive to ese's house and cry there
01[10:50] {@Threei}  mojo :)
[10:51] {munky} now vad, only 3 more to go for what i want lol
01[10:51] {@Threei}  hehe
[10:52] {fish_49} No Vad  I was out at .01
[10:52] {munky} oh oh
[10:52] {munky} u be in big troub fish'
01[10:52] {@Threei}  ese... here I come
[10:53] {fish_49} I know  I did it just to see Vad go over and Bond  with ese
[10:55] {thomcbell} splk 91.90 short break if holding 92.05 half lot
[10:55] {goinshort} today I received my first bottle of RUSSIAN STANDARD
[10:55] {goinshort} expecting my trading to greatly inprove
[10:56] {fish_49} lol
[10:56] {goinshort} or improve
[10:56] {dino} lol
01[10:56] {@Threei}  let us know how you like it :)
01[10:57] {@Threei}  and lol
[10:57] {goinshort} since coffee helps me make mistakes faster - perhaps vodka will slow me down?
[10:57] {nemo} yeah, until you start seein doubles of your keys
01[10:57] {@Threei}  don't know... reaction is individual
01[10:58] {@Threei}  ese for instance after 3rd shot starts demanding coffee intravenously
[10:58] {thomcbell} cancelling splk idea looks more like a long
[10:58] {goinshort} I use an IV drip for my vodka
[10:59] {munky} lol
[10:59] {dino} tza l .70
01[10:59] {@Threei}  wow C
01[10:59] {@Threei}  1:5
[10:59] {fish_49} c:1:5  but whos watching
[11:00] {munky} c bounce soon
01[11:00] {@Threei}  new Ukraine PM looks exactly like a geeky guy in high school who everyone hated
[11:01] {fish_49} Like Assad?
[11:01] {fish_49} I have no idea why Assad can be a bad dude  he looks like a total gentleman
[11:02] {munky} fb clocked
[11:02] {munky} but spy rollin
[11:02] {nemo} looks like a dweeb
[11:02] {nemo} yeah missed perfect fas short entry
[11:06] {dino} tza to .84
[11:06] {dino} out, +.14
01[11:06] {@Threei}  C, you are overdoing it
[11:06] {RonS} gj
[11:06] {thomcbell} wow
[11:06] {dino} eft spike
[11:06] {thomcbell} C
[11:06] {dino} wtf was that
[11:08] {dptl} good morning all
[11:08] {dino} gm dp
01[11:08] {@Threei}  hey dp
[11:08] {dptl} :)
01[11:08] {@Threei} Long Setup:  C  .50 break
01[11:08] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
[11:11] {_illyakuryakin} Pretty chart:  http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=SI&cot=084691&p=m5
01[11:12] {@Threei}  that's what we played whan shorted SLWE I guess
[11:12] {fish_49} out
01[11:13] {@Threei}  ?
[11:13] {_illyakuryakin} it looks more like SLV
01[11:13] {@Threei}  out of what?
[11:13] {fish_49} i sold at the print of .39
01[11:13] {@Threei}  why were you in??
01[11:13] {@Threei}  it never triggered
[11:14] {fish_49} oh my  I watched the tape  .51 and hit buy
[11:14] {fish_49} I swear
[11:15] {munky} what was ur in price fish?
01[11:15] {@Threei}  I did the hover so watched L2 not bklinkiong
[11:15] {munky} if its 51 it hit .51
01[11:15] {@Threei}  blinking
[11:15] {fish_49} filled at .49
01[11:15] {@Threei}  .50 offer was never broken
01[11:15] {@Threei}  there you go
01[11:16] {@Threei}  do you watch T&S only?
01[11:16] {@Threei}  not level 2?
[11:16] {fish_49} T&S
01[11:16] {@Threei}  come on...
01[11:16] {@Threei}  out of bounds print
[11:16] {fish_49} Vad  I swear
[11:16] {fish_49} I cant scroll down
01[11:16] {@Threei}  .50 offer was firmly in place, never metled down
01[11:17] {@Threei}  [11:16] {@Threei} out of bounds print
[11:17] {munky} might re valid vad
[11:18] {_illyakuryakin} SLV at hod
01[11:18] {@Threei}  FB Reportedly Instagram has signed an advertising deal with Omnicom worth up to $100M - AdAge
[11:18] {_illyakuryakin} 20.12
[11:18] {fish_49} No place for a stop now Munky
01[11:19] {@Threei}  would need it to spend some time in the range again to reestablish
[11:20] {munky} is that fb news positive or neg?
01[11:21] {@Threei}  positive
[11:21] {RonS} hearing unconfirmed report russian convoy rolling through Kerch...
01[11:21] {@Threei}  but doesn't react
[11:22] {thomcbell} rats splk
[11:23] {ese} have a great weekend all
[11:23] {RonS} cya ese
[11:23] {dino} you have a great set of ears to hear that ron
01[11:23] {@Threei}  take care ese
[11:23] {ese} cya ron
01[11:23] {@Threei}  lol dino
[11:23] {ese} vad din fish et al
01[11:24] {@Threei}  Foreign Ministry: Russian soldiers preparing to install air defense systems in Crimea
01[11:24] {@Threei}  told you... Crimea is effectively annexed
[11:25] {fish_49} ese insulting me?  I dont speak french  lol
[11:25] {dino} itmn spike
[11:28] {dino} takeover rumors
[11:29] {dino} smr l .75
[11:29] {dino} out .25, +.50 itmn
[11:30] {nemo} wow frickin' dax down 1.85%
[11:30] {dino} wow $ too soon
[11:30] {munky} wow u hit that fast in-out, gj
[11:30] {dino} ty
[11:32] {fish_49} Vad you were able to see the print of .51  on C  where did you find that info  ?
01[11:33] {@Threei}  at the time, on T&S
[11:33] {thomcbell} vad - come on that splk just worked like this
[11:33] {fish_49} ahhh I scrolled down it was gone
01[11:33] {@Threei}  didn't watch it at the moment, thom...
01[11:34] {@Threei}  fish... why are you searching for it??
01[11:34] {@Threei}  no one disputes it was there
[11:34] {fish_49} I'm pissed
01[11:34] {@Threei}  that's not the point
[11:34] {fish_49} It seems as I was seeing things?  but  It printed .51
01[11:34] {@Threei}  so how finding it changes anything?
01[11:34] {@Threei}  I am not sure you are reading what type...
[11:35] {thomcbell} 91.90 short break
01[11:35] {@Threei}  please stop for a minute and read this:
01[11:35] {@Threei}  T&S is not the ultimate display of everything that happens, since prints on it can be a) legit b) erroneous c)late
01[11:36] {@Threei}  T&S in addition to Level 2 is much more complete indication
01[11:36] {@Threei}  since Level 2 will show you actual bids and offers
01[11:36] {@Threei}  so you can see where the print is in relation to those
01[11:37] {@Threei}  No one disputes that .51 print could have been there
01[11:37] {@Threei}  the point is, it's was out of market print,
01[11:37] {@Threei}  actual breakout never happened
01[11:37] {@Threei}  as offer at .50 was not broken.
[11:37] {fish_49} Thanks
01[11:38] {@Threei}  If you go back to scalping video course,
01[11:38] {@Threei}  you will see that Level 2 is placed next to T&S
01[11:38] {@Threei}  and it's both windows that re used to gauge the action
[11:39] {fish_49} Thanks
[11:39] {RonS} The oil industry is pressuring Obama to end the ban on most crude exports. BP isn’t waiting for a decision: http://bloom.bg/1fMW2iq
[11:41] {_illyakuryakin} BP exports are in the Gulf Stream already
[11:41] {munky} i gotta do this, sorry in advance
01[11:41] {@Threei} Short Setup: RIG  42 break hl
06[11:41] * munky slaps fish_49 around a bit with a large trout
01[11:41] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
[11:41] {dino} lol
[11:42] {RonS} don't look itmn...
[11:44] {RonS} panw spike
[11:44] {munky} incy comin bacxk
[11:44] {munky} still got half
[11:44] {munky} never got near my stop
[11:44] {munky} in 63.23
[11:46] {dino} bita lod
[11:47] {RonS} panw...fwiw...hearing jury in deliberations re case w/ panw jnpr...careful
[11:47] {RonS} bita chewed on?
[11:48] {RonS} once bita twice shy?
01[11:52] {@Threei}  lol
[11:52] {nathan} g morning gentelmen
01[11:52] {@Threei}  hey nathan
01[11:53] {@Threei}  let's move RIG to .05
01[11:56] {@Threei}  Some France Banks said to be under investigation by US authorities for alleged breaches of sanctions and purported money laundering with Iran and Cuba
[11:56] {RonS} shocked!
01[11:56] {@Threei}  (RU) Turkey PM Erdogan: Turkey will back Crimean Tatars to protect their rights amid the ongoing crisis in Ukraine- We will not leave Crimean Tatars in the lurch
01[11:57] {@Threei}  hmmm... where exactly will you leave them then?
01[11:58] {@Threei}  out RIG
[11:58] {munky} out rig to
[11:58] {munky} too
[11:58] {munky} .05
[12:01] {RonS} Tartars Muslim?
[12:01] {nemo} yeah, until Stalin relocated them, they were Crimeans
[12:02] {RonS} crimeans in italy?  been wating for that one...
[12:02] {RonS} waiting
[12:02] {nemo} Crimea River
[12:03] {RonS} lol repeat...
[12:03] {nemo} have to
[12:07] {nemo} fcx Vad, but boy is it stretched today
[12:09] {thomcbell} amd back from the dead
[12:09] {munky} nemo, u use das?
01[12:09] {@Threei}  the way these setups tarde last days, it's a long
01[12:09] {@Threei}  let's let it lose .20 and byt recross for the fade
01[12:09] {@Threei}  buy
[12:10] {nemo} yes simian
[12:10] {munky} anyone know how to change das montage setting so i can buy odd lots like 50 shares? FISH?
[12:10] {nemo} set hotkeys
[12:11] {munky} well, without hotkeys
[12:11] {nemo} don't know
[12:11] {munky} its prob a setting from 100 sh
[12:11] {munky} to 50
[12:12] {dino} nemo i was looing at fcx too, gap around 31.10
[12:13] {nemo} just down so much already today dino
[12:13] {nemo} hotkey best way to do it munk
[12:14] {dino} copper down 4%, look jjc
[12:14] {fish_49} HG sitting at 120 minute support Nemo  For what it's worth
[12:14] {munky} ok fish, ty
[12:15] {fish_49} ty for?
01[12:18] {@Threei}  (RU) Russia President Putin Press Sec: Putin does not see another Cold War emerging, the West and Russia can find common ground
01[12:18] {@Threei}  absolutely
01[12:19] {@Threei}  in his eyes common ground is: you don't intrude in my dealings with Ukraine, and we are good
01[12:26] {@Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .17 break
01[12:26] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
[12:41] {dino} markets are daed
[12:41] {dino} dead, lol
01[12:44] {@Threei}  difficult to imagine eod wouldn't see some selling
[12:44] {dino} try harder
01[12:45] {@Threei}  with tensions rising and reports aboyt preparations to storm military bases over the weekend
01[12:45] {@Threei}  I would but I am too lazy
[12:45] {dino} sometimes i expect too much
01[12:46] {@Threei}  sorry to disappoint
01[12:47] {@Threei}  oh boy
01[12:47] {@Threei}  for years we had one former fed chairman incapable of shutting up
01[12:47] {@Threei}  now it's two
01[12:47] {@Threei}  (US) Former Fed Chair Bernanke: Fed felt more communication from the Fed to markets was better than less as it needed to help markets understand the goals from the Fed
[12:47] {munky} stopped
[12:47] {munky} gdx
[12:47] {mojo1} same here
01[12:48] {@Threei}  just now?
[12:49] {munky} yes, i bought it 12:37
[12:49] {munky} was away from desk
[12:49] {fish_49} I'm sorry but I have to..
[12:49] {munky} was it alreadyt done
[12:49] {fish_49} slaps Munky with a wet banana
[12:49] {munky} got .19
[12:49] {fish_49} fish slaps munky with wet banana
[12:49] {munky} necver saw invalidated
[12:49] {fish_49} how do you slap in Mirc?  lol
[12:50] {munky} oh noi took .18, trig was .19
01[12:50] {@Threei}  I don't see any single print above .25
[12:50] {munky} trig was .17
[12:51] {munky} i am out .25
[12:51] {fish_49} 12:36
01[12:51] {@Threei}  why if .25 is not broken?
01[12:51] {@Threei}  he talks about now fish
[12:51] {fish_49} ahhhh
01[12:51] {@Threei}  he entered later
[12:51] {munky} just stop, this is a repeat of fish lecture
01[12:51] {@Threei}  I am lost
[12:52] {fish_49} tell me how to use  slap  and I wont laugh too much Munky
01[12:52] {@Threei}  you guys are in some other universe than I am
[12:52] {nathan} lol
[12:52] {munky} like this fish
06[12:52] * munky slaps fish_49 around a bit with a large trout
06[12:52] * dino slaps fish_49 around a bit with a large trout
06[12:52] * munky slaps fish_49 around a bit with a large trout
06[12:52] * fish_49 slaps fish_49 around a bit with a large trout
01[12:52] {@Threei}  slapfest
[12:52] {munky} so r u in or not vad?i
[12:52] {munky} because
01[12:53] {@Threei}  I am although a trade is not inspiring
01[12:53] {@Threei}  just trying to understand why you jump in and out willy nilly
[12:53] {goinshort} I'm still in
01[12:53] {@Threei}  with no trigger or stop hit
[12:53] {munky} i dont usually, just then
[12:54] {fish_49} so the stop of .25 now means  .30  or some random number?
[12:54] {fish_49} I didn't take the trade  just asking
[12:54] {munky} im just trying to figure out why u cant pick multiple winners he he
06[12:54] * munky slaps Threei around a bit with a large trout
01[12:54] {@Threei}  aigh
01[12:54] {@Threei}  sigh
01[12:55] {@Threei}  tell you what
[12:55] {fish_49} how can I change trout  to 2x4?
[12:55] {_illyakuryakin} why use a trout?
[12:55] {fish_49} thats right Illy
01[12:55] {@Threei}  the day you find someone who never has losing days, calls one winner after another etc, let me know pls
01[12:56] {@Threei}  I'll sign up right away
[12:56] {munky} thats DINO!!!!!
[12:56] {fish_49} Or Alex  but he left
[12:56] {munky} 11 days straight
[12:56] {goinshort} what happen to cc-9?
[12:56] {fish_49} Vad fired him
[12:56] {munky} just teasing u vad, u are losing it in the translation
[12:57] {goinshort} lol
01[12:57] {@Threei}  translation?
[12:57] {fish_49} {{{-----Back to cave with blankie  to reflect on errors
01[12:57] {@Threei}  sorry... what language do you guys speak here??
01[12:57] {@Threei}  I was told it was Chinese
01[12:57] {@Threei}  which I studied all these years
01[12:58] {@Threei}  did nemo lie to me?
[12:58] {fish_49} the answer is Yes if he told you Munky was a good guy
[12:58] {dino} munky, not me, 2 stops today
[12:59] {dino} altho, i am positive for the day (so far)
[12:59] {fish_49} I just had  to Munky  to get even when you slapped me while Vad was lecturing me
[12:59] {fish_49} I was positive until I saw the ghost print on C..  I'm slowly getting past it
01[13:00] {@Threei}  and that's even though you took a scalp on our 1:3 short
[13:00] {fish_49} Yes  Please let me know ahead of time if it's going to 1:3
01[13:00] {@Threei}  shows you how close you are to being profitable
01[13:01] {@Threei}  just lick out these errors
[13:01] {fish_49} I will
01[13:01] {@Threei}  and calm down enough to hold the winners
01[13:02] {@Threei}  look at your trading sheet today, and run a hypothetic one, in which you let that short ride to 1:3 and didn't make that error,
01[13:02] {@Threei}  compare reults
01[13:02] {@Threei}  that will be good motivation to get these little things right
01[13:02] {@Threei}  and here is my personal promise to you:
[13:02] {fish_49} you will trade my account for a week?
[13:02] {fish_49} lol
01[13:03] {@Threei}  you are having good legit profitable day where you let trades develop as they should and make no mistakes, I show you how to slap with whatever you want
[13:03] {fish_49} ok  you got it
[13:03] {fish_49} how many days in a row?
01[13:03] {@Threei}  then we will see how crafty munky really is {G}
01[13:03] {@Threei}  just one
[13:03] {fish_49} you got it
01[13:03] {@Threei}  here comes that selling
01[13:04] {@Threei}  even though it's not eod yet
01[13:05] {@Threei}  (UR) White House: Proposals to alter existing US policies on exporting natural gas to deal with the Ukraine crisis would not have an immediate impact
01[13:05] {@Threei}  hmmm
01[13:05] {@Threei}  can they really export that much ng to Europe at reasonable cost, as to replace russian supply?
[13:05] {dino} aegr spike
[13:06] {thomcbell} about this regn
[13:06] {thomcbell} apparently
01[13:06] {@Threei}  REGN halt
[13:07] {dino} aegr smr s .01
[13:07] {RonS} someone bot 1800 aegr mar 50 this a.m. for 2.20...saw it posted in real time...
[13:08] {dino} cov aegr 55.18 +.83
[13:08] {RonS} already made $500k...
[13:08] {dino} damn too soon
[13:09] {RonS} $REGN halted news Bloomberg report Adverse events related to PCSK9 $AEGR spiking on news
[13:10] {dino} thx ron
[13:12] {dino} damn, missed re-short was at 55.99
01[13:17] {@Threei} Short Setup: EBAY  .80 break
01[13:17] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
[13:22] {nemo} cam
[13:23] {nemo} xcuse me WDC
01[13:23] {@Threei}  very similar symbols
[13:23] {nemo} yes, both have 3 letters
01[13:23] {@Threei}  easy to see how you mistype one for another
[13:23] {nemo} pot meet kettle
[13:23] {fish_49} Vad had nails for breakfast today
01[13:23] {@Threei}  hey, typing with knees is my trademark
01[13:24] {@Threei}  fish... today?
01[13:24] {@Threei}  this is my staple breakfast, with bacon grease
01[13:25] {@Threei}  notice... EBAY, legit trigger
01[13:25] {@Threei}  no ifs and buts, and easy to execute
[13:26] {fish_49} Ohhh my  I love Das
[13:27] {nemo} ur wife will be thrilled
01[13:27] {@Threei}  what happened?
[13:28] {fish_49} send_Rej Shrt 400 EBAY 58.77 ARCA 132:25:15 Buying Power
[13:31] {munky} nemo, fb short u see anywhere?
[13:32] {munky} vad, u seem to be thinking mkt sell into bell correct
01[13:32] {@Threei}  well, as much as word "thinking" i applicable to me
01[13:33] {@Threei}  let's say, that's the working assumption
[13:33] {munky} so whos ur short candidates so i can chart them?
[13:33] {munky} fb
[13:33] {munky} c
01[13:33] {@Threei}  market may confirm it or not
01[13:33] {@Threei}  sure
[13:33] {munky} i know
[13:33] {munky} cat
06[13:33] * munky slaps fish_49 around a bit with a large trout
06[13:34] * munky slaps fish_49 around a bit with a large trout
01[13:34] {@Threei}  stop to .86
[13:35] {dino} stop rnet .64 -.19, no volume today
[13:35] {RonS} lol
[13:35] {RonS} any day?  buyers/sellers communicate via snail mail...
[13:36] {nemo} frig...wdc broke while I was dealing w/the oxygen guy
[13:36] {RonS} blowhard eh?
[13:36] {nemo} no...that's why the oxygen guy
[13:38] {dino} taking a break, back in about an hour
[13:39] {munky} happy hour dino early
[13:40] {munky} vad, where u waiting for exits on ebay, the actual numbers?
01[13:41] {@Threei}  if panic hits, it can turn into large trade
01[13:41] {@Threei}  but I am not guessing, just following SOP
01[13:41] {@Threei}  missed .71 first exit
[13:41] {nemo} ADBE
[13:41] {munky} i know, wrong time day here for big move
[13:41] {munky} i missed .71 too
[13:41] {nemo} wrong life munky
[13:42] {fish_49} ok  to prove it was not my error I send email to support  they say issue fixed.  I don't feel so stupid  now
[13:42] {nemo} just because u were right once is no reason not to fell stupid
[13:42] {dptl} lol
[13:43] {fish_49} Back off Toad  it's been a bad week
01[13:44] {@Threei}  fish, don't feel bad
01[13:44] {@Threei}  here is the truth:
[13:44] {nemo} yeah, sith lord and the truth
01[13:44] {@Threei}  no matter how much you read, some mistakes just have to be made
[13:44] {nemo} can you say "oxymoron"
[13:44] {nemo} oh yeah, absolutely
[13:45] {nemo} you're married aren't ya?
01[13:45] {@Threei}  you learn by making them and stopping making them
[13:45] {fish_49} no but my wife is
[13:45] {nemo} we learn through pain and suffering...hopefully
01[13:45] {@Threei}  the difference between those who succeed and those who don't in not in making mistake or not,
[13:45] {nemo} watch ADBE
01[13:45] {@Threei}  it's in learning from them
01[13:45] {@Threei}  some do, and don't male them anymore
01[13:46] {@Threei}  some don't, they get pissed and press harder
01[13:46] {@Threei}  instead or press smarter
[13:46] {nemo} yes the wise man does at first what the fool does finally
01[13:46] {@Threei}  instead of
[13:46] {fish_49} well I was waiting for someone to say  "Oh You didn't know  You can't short EBAY on the 2nd Friday of the Month of March if your from Maryland
01[13:46] {@Threei}  lol
[13:46] {nathan} lol
[13:47] {nemo} ahem....should be "you're from Maryland"
01[13:47] {@Threei}  see, I trade from 1996,
01[13:47] {@Threei}  and I run RT from 2000
01[13:47] {@Threei}  dealing with traders via room, via e-mail, via whatever,
01[13:47] {@Threei}  you can imagine how many I heard from and worked with.
[13:47] {nemo} imagine that...internet has been subjected to his humor for 14 years....wtf
01[13:48] {@Threei}  yeah, poor internet
01[13:48] {@Threei}  so,
01[13:48] {@Threei}  in all these years
01[13:48] {@Threei}  I haven't seen any single trader
01[13:48] {@Threei}  no
01[13:48] {@Threei}  zilch
[13:48] {fish_49} they had internet when Vad started?
[13:48] {nemo} nope
01[13:48] {@Threei}  who wouldn't start with losses
[13:48] {fish_49} Thank God for Al Gore
[13:48] {nemo} phone
[13:48] {munky} vad had hair when he startedlol
01[13:48] {@Threei}  or wouldn't go through losing period
01[13:49] {@Threei}  hey, I still have some
01[13:49] {@Threei}  hair I mean
06[13:49] * nemo "thinks to himself...I think Munky's room rate just went up..."
01[13:49] {@Threei}  if you are frustrated because of initial losses, don't be
01[13:49] {@Threei}  it's absolutel;y part of the process
01[13:49] {@Threei}  no one avoided it,
01[13:49] {@Threei}  many lost a few trading accounts
[13:50] {nemo} ADBE
[13:50] {fish_49} My frustration is the method  only...
[13:50] {nemo} look at that HFT stuff around 68
[13:50] {nemo} whoa
01[13:51] {@Threei}  and if you think you are frustrated more than others, how about this:
[13:51] {munky} can i just ask ?
01[13:51] {@Threei}  just a sec, lemme finish
01[13:52] {@Threei}  imagine losing 3/4 of your trading account, having trading as you only hope of survival, with no actionable English, being with no legal immigrant status and having a wife and two kids to feed
[13:52] {nemo} running spell check there Vad?
01[13:53] {@Threei}  Go through that and recover, making trading work for you... come to me with box of Hennessy, we will trade stories :)
[13:53] {nemo} wow, not one spelling mistake
01[13:53] {@Threei}  oh, then publish couple trading books in that same English
[13:53] {munky} it might help us, on ebay short, break .80, so entry is either .80 or .79, a true 1;1 gotta be .70 or .69,
01[13:54] {@Threei}  and then meet nemo and deal with THAT
[13:54] {munky} but u were trying .71
[13:54] {munky} many times u critique my 1 penny stop or entry
[13:54] {nemo} right...and have NEMO edit stuff and write stuff, and sometimes carry the humor load in this Godforsaken redoubt in the etherworld
01[13:54] {@Threei}  trues 1:1 is still .70, risk reawrd ratios do not change depending on your entry since it's a market feature, independent on where you got your fill
06[13:55] * fish_49 slaps munky around a bit with a large trout
[13:55] {munky} trying to help u fish
[13:55] {fish_49} just getting even Munk Brother
01[13:55] {@Threei}  munky... point is:
[13:55] {munky} but hey, munkys eat fish as well as fruit
[13:55] {nathan} nice ADBE nemo
[13:56] {nathan} i missed
01[13:56] {@Threei}  break of meanongful support or resistance should be a signal for your action
[13:56] {nemo} what's ur real name Munky....Thelonious?
[13:56] {RonS} Spanky?
[13:56] {fish_49} Spunky
[13:57] {fish_49} what is the rabbit name at the dog races
[13:57] {nemo} o.k.  I'm throwing the flag for piling on
[13:57] {fish_49} here comes spunky?  or is it Sparky?
[13:57] {fish_49} we have  to
[13:57] {fish_49} I mean I have  to
[13:57] {fish_49} I just getting even for him ragging me  when I was boiling  a couple hours  ago
[13:57] {nemo} yes, I understand...it's a moral imperative
[13:58] {munky} someone slap fish, he is ranting
[13:58] {nemo} kick a man while he's down and keep kicking, if he gets up he might start kicking u
[13:59] {nemo} any bets we go out at vwap again today?
[13:59] {fish_49} Kick a man when he is down.  If he gets up, Run like hell
[14:00] {nemo} won't happen if you have a clue what you're doing
[14:01] {munky} sheesh, vad kicked me out of mirc
[14:02] {fish_49} he must be feeling nice  he let you back in
01[14:03] {@Threei}  1:1
01[14:03] {@Threei}  btw
[14:03] {munky} ok, got .70
[14:03] {munky} im at .61 next, correct?
01[14:03] {@Threei}  .60 strictly speaking
01[14:04] {@Threei}  unless tops the balance at .81
01[14:04] {@Threei}  and if gets to .60, we might adjust by a cdent or two, let's see how things go
01[14:04] {@Threei}  tops = stops
[14:04] {munky} so now stop is .81 correct?
01[14:05] {@Threei}  right
[14:06] {goinshort} had to reboot -are we trading anything ?
[14:06] {nemo} yeah....
[14:06] {nemo} barbs
01[14:06] {@Threei}  EBAY is half out
[14:06] {munky} good, i just want to know if im getting ur thoghts
01[14:08] {@Threei}  you continue making this mistake...
01[14:08] {@Threei}  I have no thoughts
01[14:08] {@Threei}  I have SOP
01[14:08] {@Threei}  I follow it
[14:09] {nathan} spike on CRM
[14:12] {nathan} there it goes
[14:14] {munky} so nemo, u thinking/watchin spy my go up close vwap?
[14:15] {munky} my=may
[14:15] {nemo} it's a possibility, but this weakness looks like we may test the low end of the range
[14:16] {munky} ok, ty
[14:16] {munky} cap'n
[14:16] {nemo} volatility picking up a bit
[14:16] {munky} vxx trade ?
[14:17] {nemo} that top on vxx is the start of a gap...it would be long if indexes come in
[14:17] {nemo} I'm not seeing a clean setup though
[14:18] {munky} u see a sh in fb nemo?
[14:18] {munky} or depends on spy
[14:19] {nemo} could use a consolidation, this is a vad setup in the making
[14:19] {nemo} everything kinda' depends on spy
01[14:19] {@Threei}  close GDX
01[14:19] {@Threei}  annoyed
01[14:20] {@Threei}  here comes more selling
01[14:20] {@Threei}  folks, let me share what I hear from, well
01[14:20] {@Threei}  let's call it sources
01[14:20] {@Threei}  on the ground so to speak
01[14:21] {@Threei}  to make it succinct, without too much theory
01[14:22] {@Threei}  1. Ukraine is not going to abandon its EU ascension ambitions, they see it as their only protection
01[14:22] {@Threei}  2. Russia is not going to allow NATO this close
[14:22] {munky} ww3?
[14:23] {_illyakuryakin} east -west split?
01[14:23] {@Threei}  3. All these western discussions about finding compromise etc are not applicable, this is just not the way Putin thinks
01[14:23] {@Threei}  4. He has no respect for current western leadership, in both EU and USA, considers them rotten and lazy
01[14:24] {@Threei}  5. He is widely supported by population where media promotes such views for a good decade playing of nationalistic feelings and wounded pride
01[14:25] {@Threei}  This situation is going to escalate
01[14:25] {@Threei}  there is only one thing that can stop him
01[14:25] {@Threei}  and that's exactly the thing West refuses to do
[14:25] {nemo} coup
[14:25] {fish_49} In my humble opinion, if he just sits and waits  it will unfold his way  without violence from Russia
01[14:26] {@Threei}  that's what he will do fish, if Ukraine abandons EU/NATO plans
01[14:26] {@Threei}  but if those pkans proceed, he qwon't have that luxury
[14:27] {fish_49} no,  then he will be in same situation as Obummer was in with Syria
[14:27] {fish_49} if they proceed they will paint him in a corner
01[14:27] {@Threei}  only he acts on nis red lines
01[14:27] {@Threei}  his
[14:28] {dino} .
[14:29] {fish_49} there is no fear of WW3  that will not happen
[14:29] {_illyakuryakin} but only if there's a coup?
01[14:29] {@Threei}  I don't see any chance for a coup
01[14:30] {@Threei}  his grip on power is very strong
[14:30] {dino} the only thing that will stop putin is if the business guys in russia (the money men) tell him to, because its costing them billions
01[14:30] {@Threei}  no dino
01[14:31] {@Threei}  he doesn't care if they can't get to their yachts in Nizza
01[14:31] {@Threei}  and he showed many times that they better stay away from pol,itics
[14:31] {nemo} they've never seen them anyway
01[14:31] {@Threei}  remember Khodorkovsky?
01[14:32] {@Threei}  for him it's an existential threat
01[14:33] {@Threei}  he backs off, he loses his position in power
01[14:33] {@Threei}  his bet is, West won;t go to war
01[14:33] {@Threei}  just as it happened with Georgia
[14:33] {dino} i think he is empire building, doesn't give a f#$k about anything or anyone else
01[14:34] {@Threei}  pretty much
[14:34] {fish_49} correctamundo  Dino
[14:34] {dino} nepoleon complex
01[14:34] {@Threei}  to get why he is so sensitive about Ukraine/EU thing, look at the geographic map, not political
01[14:35] {@Threei}  look at huge border Russia has, with nothing natural to protect it
01[14:35] {@Threei}  no major rivers no mountains
01[14:35] {@Threei}  direct access
01[14:36] {@Threei}  that's why throughout the centuries Russia saw its security in surroounding itself with buffer countries
[14:36] {RonS} data leaking
[14:37] {dino} don't really think that its a fear/buffer thing. i think he wants to take it and he will take.  trying to prove to the world that he is in charge
01[14:37] {@Threei}  VXX nice move
01[14:37] {@Threei}  buffer thing is what lies under the very concept of influencing nearest countries, dino
01[14:38] {@Threei}  when that concept is internalized as a cornerstone of foreign policy, actions follow
[14:38] {dino} its about power, you got it, i want it
[14:39] {dino} think about it, nobody else simply taes countries. but putin does. power/ego/etc
[14:39] {dino} takes
01[14:39] {@Threei}  my point is, this concept shows wy there is no way to calm this down
[14:39] {dino} he is the guy that takes without payment or penalty.
01[14:39] {@Threei}  as long as EU tries to embrace Ukraine, it will escalate
[14:39] {dino} so why not take some more?
[14:41] {dino} sure it will escalate, putin will take the entire country. eu will talk tough, but do nothing as usual. then putin will look for his next acquisition
[14:41] {munky} at least when months over ill be an expert in euro/russo politics
[14:41] {dino} emoire building
[14:42] {dino} empire
[14:42] {fish_49} EU will be forced  to turn the blind eye and hope the issue goes away.  what choices are there?  non.. Zilch...
01[14:43] {@Threei}  that choice is horrible too
[14:43] {fish_49} yes  agree but who is in a position to stop it  Vad?
[14:43] {dino} yes it is horrible, but eu has no balls
01[14:43] {@Threei}  Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons in exchnage for guarantee of its territorial integrity
[14:43] {mojo1} is this the trading room, not sure
01[14:43] {@Threei}  that means next time someone is offered such tradem he will refuse sxeeing how guarantees do not work
[14:44] {dino} and obummer agreed not to place missles in eastern europe.
01[14:44] {@Threei}  mojo... where do you think my idea of shorting into eod came from?
01[14:44] {@Threei}  that same that works on EBAY and VXX?
01[14:45] {@Threei}  I started this to inform you about nearest perspectives that will have censequences for the market
[14:45] {munky} and how does this all affect the south american banana supply?
01[14:45] {@Threei}  it doesn't
01[14:46] {@Threei}  other than slight price increase
[14:46] {munky} well, thats a priority to this chimp
01[14:46] {@Threei}  as a result of oil goong up in secalation scenario
01[14:46] {@Threei}  escalation
[14:46] {_illyakuryakin} but trout in Peru, they should do well
[14:47] {fish_49} thanks Illy
[14:47] {munky} trout?????
[14:47] {dino} panw all over the place
[14:47] {fish_49} especially the ones at high elevation
[14:47] {munky} trout????
[14:47] {_illyakuryakin} in the highlands
06[14:47] * munky slaps _illyakuryakin around a bit with a large trout
01[14:47] {@Threei}  (UR) Russia forces could be storming a Ukraine base near Sevastopol, Crimea - Ukraine press- Said to have broken through the gates using a truck and advancing toward the base command center. - Base said to have 100 Ukrainian soldiers; No indication to the size of the Russian forces
[14:48] {dino} mistrial panw case
[14:49] {fish_49} I'm confused .. why would Russian forces storm something they already control?
[14:49] {dino} for photo ops
01[14:50] {@Threei}  they surrounded those bases
[14:50] {fish_49} ahhhh   better Vodka and girls on the other side
01[14:50] {@Threei}  now they are taking them
[14:50] {_illyakuryakin} its only a drill too
[14:51] {fish_49} taking them?  under who's command?  Didn't the Putin dude say he wouldn't attack?
[14:51] {dino} panw smr l .80
[14:51] {dino} out panw .18, +.38
[14:52] {munky} r u going in/out in a minute?
[14:52] {munky} or late post?
[14:52] {dino} yes
[14:53] {dino} no post was right on it
[14:53] {dino} less than 30 seconds
[14:53] {munky} ok,just trying to understand
[14:53] {dino} as soon as i enter, i post
[14:53] {dino} wanted $100 so entered sell as soon as buy filled
[14:54] {munky} scvanner find it?
[14:54] {dino} scanner finds them all
[14:54] {dino} would be lost w/o it
[14:55] {munky} using intelliscan?
[14:55] {dino} no. street smart edge has scanners, i tweek them
[14:56] {munky} is that free?
[14:56] {dino} yes, comes with the platform
[14:56] {fish_49} not sure they will give you the platform without opening an account
[14:56] {dino} damn, i'm cutting everything a $1 too soon today
[14:57] {dino} correct fish
[14:57] {dino} $25k minimum
[14:57] {fish_49} I have it  I use it at times
[14:57] {fish_49} it's a clean platform no hicups
[14:57] {fish_49} charts are beautiful
[14:58] {dino} charts and scanners are excellent
[14:58] {_illyakuryakin} i like charts
[14:58] {_illyakuryakin} any good one min. charts these days?
[14:58] {dino} das faster executions, but for my style edge works better
01[14:59] {@Threei}  munky, open "top list" in DAS
01[14:59] {@Threei}  you'll se many of the stocks dino trades
[14:59] {dino} illy, freestockcharts.com
[15:00] {nemo} vwap and pivots, huh dino?
[15:00] {_illyakuryakin} :)
[15:00] {dino} yes
[15:00] {dino} nemo, you got me hooked on that
[15:00] {nemo} yeah, Vad still rues the day
[15:00] {_illyakuryakin} its illya, btw
[15:00] {dino} opps
01[15:00] {@Threei}  Palo Alto Networks Markman Advisors tweets that a mistrial has been declared in patent case brought by Juniper Networks **NOTE: Juniper is currently pursuing patent claims against PANW and the trial started in late Feb. Juniper claims that Palo Alto co-founder Nir Zuk, who worked at Juniper for about a year between 2004-2005 after Juniper acquired NetScreen (where Zuk was CTO), used some of its technology in Palo Alto's products.
[15:01] {_illyakuryakin} k
[15:01] {nemo} Illyavich
[15:02] {_illyakuryakin} that hurts
[15:02] {dino} aero spike
[15:02] {munky} dam missed cat, and been watching it
[15:02] {munky} all day
[15:02] {dino} arto halt?
[15:03] {dino} aero
[15:03] {dino} l2 funny on it
[15:04] {_illyakuryakin} any over the weekend candidates?
[15:04] {_illyakuryakin} just kidding
[15:05] {dino} not for me
[15:05] {nemo} too much headline risk
[15:05] {_illyakuryakin} really
[15:06] {nathan} have a nice weekend
[15:07] {_illyakuryakin} we loose an hour
[15:07] {nemo} shit
[15:07] {fish_49} ahh is this weekend DLST?
[15:07] {nemo} one less hour of drinking this weekend
[15:08] {dino} yes
[15:08] {fish_49} markets open an hour faster  lol
[15:08] {dino} put in a shift yesterday for happy hour, ended up happy 4 hours
[15:08] {fish_49} now that I retired I hate weekends
[15:08] {_illyakuryakin} grass will grow better
[15:09] {_illyakuryakin} more daylight
[15:09] {munky} i feel bad for u fish
[15:09] {dino} ???
01[15:09] {@Threei}  watching VXX
[15:10] {nemo} we could be very flat for the rest of the day given the locations near vwap
[15:15] {nemo} spy finnies and iwm all got to vwap at the same time...how convenient
[15:15] {nemo} divergence developing too, but I don't expect to much room to play
[15:17] {nemo} too much
[15:18] {dptl} have a good weekend all
[15:19] {nemo} don't drink too little dp
01[15:19] {@Threei}  take care dp
[15:19] {dptl} never Nemo :)
[15:19] {dino} cya dp
[15:22] {nemo} mmhhhh, this is actually a 3 hour divergence...this might be interesting
[15:23] {fish_49} price and volume?  what chart are you looking at?
[15:23] {nemo} proprietary
[15:24] {fish_49} symbol is prop also?
01[15:24] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .44 break hl
01[15:24] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
[15:24] {nemo} my primary indexes are vxx iwm spy and finnies, (fas, xlf, iyf) take ur pick
[15:24] {nemo} I watch those 4 all the time
[15:25] {nemo} you mean 44 break, right vad?
01[15:32] {@Threei}  1:1
[15:32] {dino} calling it a week, thx all for ideas, very good week
01[15:32] {@Threei}  take care dino, have a good one
01[15:33] {@Threei}  here comes my eod selloff
01[15:35] {@Threei}  1:2
[15:36] {goinshort} 1:2 and out
01[15:36] {@Threei}  that's geopolitics for ya {G}
[15:36] {goinshort} Thanks everyone great week -cya monday
01[15:37] {@Threei}  take care gs
01[15:37] {@Threei}  1:3
01[15:43] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .10 break hl
01[15:43] {@Threei}  If holds  44
[15:46] {nemo} and back to vwap we go
[15:47] {fish_49} how did the divergence play out toad
[15:47] {fish_49} gotta run  have a great weekend  see ya monday
01[15:48] {@Threei}  take care fish
01[15:51] {@Threei}  meh
01[15:51] {@Threei}  OK guys, decent day
01[15:51] {@Threei}  thank you all, have a great weekend
01[15:51] {@Threei}  see you Monday

Thursday, March 6, 2014

March 06 2014

The day started well, with 1:3 and 1:2 trades, then pattern of rinsing resumed. Ended negatively second day in the row, which is quite rare for us.

Session Time: Thu Mar 06 00:00:00 2014
[09:01] {dino} gm
[09:01] {fish_49} gm Dino  GM  all
[09:01] {RonS} ford all
01[09:01] {@Threei}  dino, fish, ron :)
01[09:01] {@Threei}  and lol
[09:04] {nemo} anybody else having problems connecting with DAS
[09:15] {mojo1} gd morning
01[09:15] {@Threei}  mojo :)
[09:18] {goinshort} gm  all
01[09:18] {@Threei}  gs :)
[09:21] {munky} morning btw
[09:21] {fish_49} same here
[09:21] {fish_49} gm Munky
[09:21] {nemo} yep...
[09:21] {munky} oh, hi fish
01[09:21] {@Threei}  munky :)
[09:25] {ese} gm
01[09:25] {@Threei}  ese :)
[09:26] {nemo} hey ese
[09:26] {ese} hey nemo
[09:26] {ese} vad
[09:28] {nemo} well, guess I'll be writing for a while this morning
[09:28] {RonS} ese:  pic.twitter.com/tZSAH4TWGK
[09:28] {ese} how do I access that Ron
[09:29] {nemo} copy paste ese
[09:29] {RonS} copy & paste?
[09:29] {ese} ok
[09:29] {munky} ok in now
[09:31] {ese} too funny
01[09:31] {@Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .70 break
01[09:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .65
01[09:34] {@Threei}  meh
[09:34] {munky} stopped
01[09:35] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .70 break hl
01[09:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[09:36] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:37] {dptl} good morning all
01[09:37] {@Threei}  dp
01[09:39] {@Threei} Long Setup:  EBAY  .05 break
[09:39] {munky} ty fb
01[09:40] {@Threei}  yw
[09:40] {munky} 1:2
01[09:40] {@Threei}  If holds  59
01[09:41] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:42] {@Threei}  .20 next dam
01[09:42] {@Threei}  broken
01[09:43] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:43] {@Threei}  nice smooth ride
[09:44] {munky} pxlw news?
[09:44] {RonS} some deal w/ aapl
[09:44] {munky} ty
[09:45] {munky} its one for dino
01[09:45] {@Threei}  1:3  OUT
01[09:45] {@Threei}  Pixelworks Inc Reports Q4 $0.00 v $0.06e, R$15.0M v $15.0Me- CEO: We enter 2014 with significant traction on a number of exciting growth opportunities driven by strong product momentum, including the ramping of our product created as part of a co-development agreement, further monetization of our valuable technology portfolio, as well as the formal introduction of our technology into the mobile market.
[09:46] {dino} apple relationship, pxlw
[09:48] {dino} pxlw smr s .07
01[09:51] {@Threei}  FB not finding firm footing
[09:52] {munky} fb pivot 71.05
[09:52] {munky} fb s1 70.13
01[09:52] {@Threei}  eeck
01[09:52] {@Threei}  another one bitten by nemo
[09:52] {nemo} jobs report Thursday
[09:52] {RonS} $P In the release, Pandora said it "intends to discontinue its monthly disclosure of key audience metrics.
[09:52] {munky} u never know with this animal
01[09:53] {@Threei}  probably because it's too good Ron
[09:53] {RonS} hehe
01[09:53] {@Threei}  they don't want others to get jealous
[09:53] {fish_49} what is s1 Munky?
[09:53] {ese} frickin basements got water in now from all the flippin rain we've been having......i'm toast for the day cya tomorrow
[09:53] {munky} vad, is that an eeck like geek or eeck like peck?
01[09:54] {@Threei}  wow ese
01[09:54] {@Threei}  good thig I have no basement
[09:54] {dino} cya
[09:54] {munky} seriously fish?
[09:54] {dino} i trade from basement office
01[09:54] {@Threei}  how do I know munky... I barely know how to type things, let alone how to pronounce them
[09:55] {munky} lol
[09:55] {munky} just wanted proper sound effect vad
[09:55] {nemo} squeal like a pig
[09:56] {nemo} you got purdy lips
01[09:56] {@Threei}  grrr
01[09:57] {@Threei}  looking fir short setup on FB, can't find an entry
[09:57] {fish_49} Yea  I was serious Munky  but  now I see you typed  S1 as in Pivot  I thought  you were taking it short there  sorry for the confusion
[09:57] {munky} no prob
[09:58] {dino} cov pxlw .97, +.10, entry off
[09:58] {fish_49} Nice rally this am  Putin cover his short?
[09:59] {RonS} must have since heard he changed his name from putin to callin...
[09:59] {fish_49} covered calls?
[09:59] {fish_49} lol
01[09:59] {@Threei}  lol
[09:59] {nemo} p
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) JAN FACTORY ORDERS: -0.7% V -0.5%E
[10:00] {nemo} they'll shrug that off
[10:01] {fish_49} I'm not sure if true or not but I was looking at a pic on the web this a.m of him acting as a tourist while standing next to Ronnie Reagan
01[10:03] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .25 break
01[10:03] {@Threei}  If holds  .15
01[10:03] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:04] {@Threei}  here comes second stage of Crimea annexation plan
01[10:04] {@Threei}  parliament voted for joining Russia and set referendum for March 16
01[10:04] {@Threei}  1:2
[10:05] {munky} ty got .1:2
[10:05] {munky} 0ut
01[10:05] {@Threei}  :)
[10:05] {munky} .45
[10:06] {_illyakuryakin} isn't that the day after the Ides?
[10:07] {nemo} et tu?
01[10:07] {@Threei}  yes... but I don't exopect more than 3 persons in the whole Crimea to even get the reference
[10:07] {_illyakuryakin} that too
01[10:07] {@Threei}  let alone the implications
[10:07] {munky} vad, normally i'd let u go home now, but because of yesterday u can not lol
[10:07] {fish_49} why wait until the 16th?
01[10:08] {@Threei}  I don't even ask munky...
01[10:08] {@Threei}  that's how profoundly I realize my fault
[10:08] {_illyakuryakin} better for revenues, fish
01[10:08] {@Threei}  normaly I'd ask after 1:3 on EBAY
[10:09] {munky} and normally id allow it lol
[10:10] {nemo} munky's magnanimity
[10:11] {dino} bita smr l .70
[10:13] {nemo} vxx could be interesting a little later...setting up for the jobs report we might see some buying..if we don't see buying, market likely expects job report to be neutral to positive
[10:17] {dino} out bita .30, +.60
[10:17] {RonS} gj
[10:17] {dino} ty
[10:17] {munky} make the call cap'n
[10:18] {RonS} bita & swallowed...
[10:18] {thomcbell} gm
01[10:18] {@Threei}  thom
[10:18] {munky} hey thom
[10:18] {fish_49} I was watching from the sideline.  Need big  stop for that one.  When mentioned at .70  I pulled up and already at .50  area  lol
[10:20] {munky} vad, when u trade dinos pix how many shares u do?
[10:21] {dino} he doesn't
[10:21] {dino} bita smr l .38 ave
[10:22] {nemo} munky, vad is a sadist, not a masochist
[10:23] {dino} bita stop .10, -.28
[10:24] {dino} rinsed
[10:24] {fish_49} Bita Bit you that time?
[10:26] {dino} reload .30
01[10:27] {@Threei}  l twtr .70 break sm
01[10:27] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .70 break sm
01[10:27] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[10:31] {@Threei}  nah
[10:32] {munky} stopped
[10:32] {munky} vad giveth vad taketh away
01[10:32] {@Threei}  vad stops making calls then
01[10:33] {@Threei}  stopeth I mean
01[10:33] {@Threei}  small shares, sheesh
[10:37] {fish_49} it's setting up short now  with 10 cent risk
[10:37] {munky} am i in room? was dropped
[10:38] {mojo1} back
[10:38] {munky} some tech issues this morn here
[10:42] {munky} cat strong
[10:42] {dino} out bita .08, +.78
[10:42] {dino} hmmm
[10:43] {fish_49} out too early?
[10:43] {dino} yes
[10:44] {fish_49} looks like could see .80
[10:44] {dino} most likely go positive, good report
[10:44] {fish_49} 50 SMA around .63
[10:44] {dino} pulls back hard tho
[10:45] {thomcbell} which are u talking about dino?
[10:45] {dino} teleport
[10:45] {dino} bita
[10:45] {munky} news bidu?
[10:45] {munky} up 9
[10:46] {dino} bita
[10:46] {nemo} china companies having good earnings reports and Chinese gov't doing there own QE
[10:46] {RonS} agree
[10:48] {dino} vjet drop
01[10:49] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .80 break
01[10:49] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[10:51] {@Threei}  now, this is the friendly face you want to see on the neigbor across the street: http://www.kyivpost.com/media/images/2014/03/02/p18i02hnlk9t5p96gp81i71b7o4/big.jpg
01[10:52] {@Threei}  stop .74
01[10:55] {@Threei}  meh
[11:01] {fish_49} wmt forming C&H on 3 min
01[11:03] {@Threei}  somg
[11:04] {fish_49} or SOMH
[11:04] {fish_49} Son of Male Horse
[11:09] {thomcbell} wow vwap bounce on bita
01[11:10] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .20 break
01[11:10] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[11:16] {@Threei}  nervous trade
[11:17] {fish_49} i didnt fill
[11:17] {munky} held by tooth
01[11:17] {@Threei}  hmm?
01[11:17] {@Threei}  why not?
[11:17] {munky} saw .30 but my stop was .31
01[11:17] {@Threei}  it's not like it didn't give enough time
01[11:17] {@Threei}  yes
[11:17] {munky} i meant it didnt stop
[11:18] {fish_49} not sure  hit  the sell button at first print of .19  for .18  got 0 shares
[11:19] {fish_49} too late?
01[11:19] {@Threei}  it touched 1 cent from 1;1
01[11:20] {@Threei}  I wouldn't enter it now as secondary
[11:20] {fish_49} I'll sit it out
01[11:20] {@Threei}  and trailing stop to .26
[11:20] {fish_49} munky  how many shares did you get and what fill price?
[11:21] {nemo} lulu may be short here seller at .25, break of .20, time of day becoming an issue
[11:23] {munky} 400 fish
[11:23] {munky} .21
[11:24] {fish_49} I thought so
01[11:24] {@Threei}  out
01[11:24] {@Threei}  should have taken .11
[11:25] {fish_49} Nemo  that big Ask at .25 comes and goes
[11:27] {dino} stx drop
[11:28] {munky} stopped btw
[11:28] {munky} fish
[11:28] {fish_49} sorry
[11:29] {munky} i think the mkts been very hard yesterday and today
[11:29] {nemo} monday and tuesday also because of the gaps
[11:29] {dino} stx smr l .20
[11:29] {nemo} stx is the number 1 weak on the algo dino
[11:35] {dino} meaning?
[11:35] {nemo} there's alot of downward pressure on it
[11:35] {dino} ok
[11:35] {nemo} I'll let you know if it starts to shut off
[11:36] {dino} i'll just have to buy a substantial amount more then
[11:36] {nemo} or partial
[11:36] {dino} joking
[11:38] {fish_49} LULU Classical DBI
[11:38] {dino} pxlw hod
01[11:38] {@Threei}  looking at LULU as well
01[11:39] {@Threei} Short Setup: LULU  .15 break
[11:39] {fish_49}  break of .15 with stop of .26?  or you
01[11:39] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
[11:39] {fish_49} no need to finish my question  lol
01[11:39] {@Threei}  :)
[11:39] {nemo} btw, Fish, when you see the big ask come and go, and price doesn't move up to challenge it, it means there is no buying pressure
[11:39] {fish_49} thanks Nemo
[11:40] {nemo} it's the mole that pops it's head up but nobody wants to whack it
[11:40] {dino} lol
[11:41] {dino} stx .40 wall
01[11:41] {@Threei}  because it has AK-47 in its hands
01[11:41] {@Threei}  and that friendly smile
[11:42] {fish_49} only got 300 shares  waaa
[11:42] {nemo} lulu worked
[11:42] {nemo} shoulda' shorted at .20 fish
[11:43] {fish_49} yea perhaps
[11:43] {fish_49} the risk was small
[11:43] {nemo} yeah, with that seller at .25
[11:44] {nemo} probably not gonna' 'get any biggies today, or at least not until a little later
[11:44] {nemo} stx
[11:44] {nemo} sorry
[11:44] {thomcbell} dang looks like a 17.78 short break if holding 17.90
[11:44] {nemo} that's vwap
[11:44] {thomcbell} i know
[11:44] {thomcbell} looking to short a bounce to 18.20 or so
[11:44] {nemo} and the area of yesterday's close
01[11:47] {@Threei}  frikin FB
01[11:47] {@Threei}  now it works
[11:47] {munky} yea, ur ideas are correct,alot of rinses boss
01[11:48] {@Threei}  irritating
[11:48] {munky} i got 100 .05 lulu
[11:48] {fish_49} FB on my NTL   for awhile  NTL is code for No Trade List
[11:48] {munky} partialed
[11:48] {munky} wanted more out
01[11:49] {@Threei}  trail balance to .21
[11:50] {munky} did u get half out?
[11:50] {munky} i only caufght 100 of 500
01[11:50] {@Threei}  no
[11:50] {munky} ok
[11:50] {munky} u just tightening up
[11:50] {munky} ok
01[11:51] {@Threei}  thought of doing .06 but I think a bit too slow today
[11:54] {thomcbell} great call on bita
[11:54] {thomcbell} absolutely great
[11:55] {nemo} sbux could be a short here
[11:56] {nemo} eh, indexes look like setting up for a stealth breakout
[11:57] {nemo} stx strengthening a tad dino
[11:57] {dino} ty
[12:01] {dino} wwe spike
[12:02] {nemo} cam seller at .84
[12:02] {nemo} .82 actually
[12:08] {dino} bita going to flat, sheesh, called it but sold it way early
[12:11] {fish_49} .84 looks like a struggle for bita
[12:13] {fish_49} took it out
[12:21] {dino} wwe crazy
[12:24] {dino} stx stop is .99, brb
[12:30] {dino} stopped
[12:31] {fish_49} bita  starting to look short below 44
[12:31] {fish_49} ooops  spoke too soon there is the bounce  lol
[12:38] {dino} vrx drop
[12:48] {dino} rtrx spike
[12:49] {dino} vsm l vrx .17
[12:50] {RonS} celg pressure
01[12:51] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .90 break
01[12:51] {@Threei}  If holds  71
01[12:52] {@Threei}  change to 71 break
01[12:52] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
01[12:54] {@Threei}  meh
[12:54] {fish_49} I lied  I traded it
[12:55] {fish_49} waaa It's really on my Do not trade list now
01[12:55] {@Threei}  it brough a lot of winning trades over last few months
01[12:56] {@Threei}  couple days it misbehaves, you drop it?
[12:56] {fish_49} until I got here
[12:56] {fish_49} lol
[12:56] {fish_49} I'm joking  I will take every call made
01[12:56] {@Threei}  and this is those same couple days whole market is jerky and patternless
[12:57] {dino} out vrx flat
[12:58] {dino} damn
[12:59] {fish_49} LULU 1:1
[13:01] {thomcbell} spwr looks like a 35.60 short break here
[13:01] {thomcbell} stocks are nuts intraday
[13:02] {dino} too fast to post, re-loaded .50 out .34, +.84 vrx
[13:04] {fish_49} 1 more tick LULU  t
[13:04] {nemo} stx turned off dino
[13:05] {RonS} celg on algo list?
[13:05] {fish_49} LULU 1:2  good call
[13:05] {nemo} yeah, full red on weak side
[13:07] {thomcbell} no go spwr
[13:08] {nemo} celg looks like bounce might be coming
[13:08] {RonS} away up up &
[13:14] {fish_49} Out LULU 1:3
[13:14] {fish_49} Thanks Toad
01[13:14] {@Threei}  wtg
[13:14] {nemo} ribbit
[13:14] {RonS} gj
01[13:14] {@Threei}  read this:
01[13:14] {@Threei}  - France President Hollande: Prep work for the June G8 summit is suspended as of now - If Russia does not engage in negotiations with Ukraine, EU will pursue travel bans, asset freezes and cancel G8 participation - If Russia does more to destabilize Ukraine, more measures will be taken - France wants to avoid suspending military contracts with Russia, will not stop sale of Mistral ships to Russia
01[13:14] {@Threei}  what an incredible hypocrisy
[13:15] {nemo} I'm sure Hollande is buying lube and kneepads
[13:15] {RonS} de Monet
[13:15] {dino} sell them the ships to fight us with
[13:15] {fish_49} We will sell you Weapons  but don't use them on Ukraine  Promise?
[13:15] {fish_49} Scouts Honor?
[13:16] {nemo} France needs the natural gas, despite how much Hollande spews
[13:17] {RonS} grow more garlic & onions?
[13:18] {_illyakuryakin} mushrooms
[13:18] {nemo} Psyllocibin?
01[13:18] {@Threei}  truffles
[13:18] {_illyakuryakin} all types
01[13:18] {@Threei}  searched for by pigs
[13:21] {dino} damn stx rinse
[13:21] {RonS} want celg around 158...might get there...many large cap bios under pressure...rotation...
[13:21] {dino} markets feeling heavy
01[13:27] {@Threei}  FAZ and TZA are supressed so heavily
01[13:27] {@Threei}  really would be nice to get serious market dcrop, these two would become real players
[13:28] {nemo} biotechs getting crushed
[13:31] {dino} wow pllw spike
[13:31] {munky} dino, symbol??
[13:31] {dino} pxlw, sorry
[13:32] {munky} pxlw
[13:32] {dino} yeah
[13:33] {munky} news?
[13:33] {RonS} jesus, you asked this morning and we answered...  :)
01[13:33] {@Threei}  lol
[13:34] {nemo} maybe he's Les
01[13:34] {@Threei}  earnings and some deal with AAPL
[13:34] {fish_49} I told y9ou yesterday He seems just like Les when Les started
[13:34] {dino} aapl news spiking it imo
[13:34] {dino} fish, nah, munky seems to trade better
[13:34] {fish_49} lol
[13:35] {munky} ty on news
[13:35] {munky} huh? fish u think i trade like les?
[13:35] {fish_49} not at all
01[13:35] {@Threei}  you guys know I copy it all in a separate file named "To show Les when he is back so he knows who mocked him the most, this missed him the most"?
[13:36] {munky} i really do not even know him
01[13:36] {@Threei}  this = thus
[13:36] {dino} would expect that
[13:36] {fish_49} Luv You Les
[13:36] {munky} has he been out since ive been in?
[13:36] {fish_49} even More than I luv Nemo
[13:37] {munky} there was someone really nailing it when i first started
01[13:37] {@Threei}  he is on and off with work schedule, munly, should be back in a month or two
[13:37] {munky} weird name like 0-99
[13:37] {nemo} they're transplanting an amoeba's brain into him...he's in recovery
[13:37] {dino} cc9
[13:38] {munky} who was the guy calling trasdes?_99 OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT?
[13:38] {fish_49} cc9 is the one that cloned the phrase BTFD  right?
[13:38] {munky} Sorry caps
[13:38] {dino} y
[13:38] {munky} oh, he was impressive
[13:38] {dino} y
[13:38] {munky} where'd he go???
01[13:38] {@Threei}  (UR) Dep Sec of State: US Govt is currently discussing how to handle US natural gas resources in a method pertaining the Ukraine crisis
01[13:38] {@Threei}  huh?
[13:39] {fish_49} he was a good trader  Just not much about support for DAS  lol
[13:39] {dino} i guess govt will "wish" it over to ukraine
01[13:39] {@Threei}  BTFD is years old internet meme
[13:39] {nemo} yeah, 2010
01[13:39] {@Threei}  there was a cartoon about it
[13:40] {nemo} youtube animation
[13:40] {fish_49} ahhh first time to hear it was when cc9 was frustrated one day
[13:40] {fish_49} Dino  you have any drilling up your way?
[13:40] {nemo} noob
[13:40] {fish_49} Perhaps more Nat Gas coming from PA
[13:40] {dino} i have leases in force with cchk, no wells yet
[13:41] {dino} chk
[13:42] {dino} they have been running new and much bigger pipelines though my area
[13:42] {dino} srne going for gap fill 12.50s
[13:45] {dino} damn missed srne gap fill entry
[13:45] {dino} too fast
01[13:46] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .40 break
01[13:46] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
[13:46] {nemo} fb
[13:47] {nemo} .80 bid fb
[13:47] {nemo} right through
[13:47] {nemo} she's going to 70
[13:49] {dino} tza l .70
[13:54] {thomcbell} dang was a better setup that last time it came down
01[13:54] {@Threei}  let's trail to .34
[13:54] {thomcbell} more of a shelf up at 18
01[13:55] {@Threei}  half out
01[13:55] {@Threei}  1:1
[13:55] {fish_49} half out also  got .49
[13:56] {munky} out half here .51
01[13:56] {@Threei}  if we get full-blown panic I'll feel much better
01[13:56] {@Threei}  mostly because I enjoy panic
01[13:56] {@Threei}  and miss bear market greatly
01[13:57] {@Threei}  remember "don't panic" sign in Airplane... switching to "OK, panic"
01[13:58] {@Threei}  sheesh FB
[13:58] {munky} maybe we should just full out when mkts like this, only a question
01[13:59] {@Threei}  hard to tell...
[13:59] {munky} s1 fb i posted earlier
[13:59] {munky} 170.13
[13:59] {dino} rnet drop, hooker
[13:59] {munky} basically did it
[13:59] {munky} that was a point higher
[14:00] {munky} vxx rebounds
[14:00] {nemo} [13:46] {nemo} fb
[14:00] {nemo} [13:47] {nemo} .80 bid fb
[14:00] {nemo} [13:48] {nemo} right through
[14:00] {nemo} [13:48] {nemo} she's going to 70
[14:01] {nemo} ain't gonna' make 70 though
[14:01] {dino} tza stop .68 -.02
[14:02] {munky} nemo agree, close enough tho
01[14:03] {@Threei}  out on a trail
[14:05] {fish_49} out on trail ,39
[14:05] {munky} stopped .34
[14:05] {RonS} btw got +.13 vxx thanks 3i
[14:05] {fish_49} ty Vad
01[14:06] {@Threei}  yw
01[14:06] {@Threei}  why .34 munky?
01[14:06] {@Threei}  1:1, stop to b/e
[14:07] {munky} ok, 1:1 gets b/e...forget and put .34 hard in
[14:08] {munky} wish i blew it all out at .51 tho
[14:08] {munky} just because todays been a real b*tch
[14:09] {fish_49} huh  today a bioth?  what do you call yesterday  lol?
[14:09] {mojo1} double biotch
[14:10] {dino} lstr spike
[14:11] {dino} partial fill rnet l .20
[14:12] {fish_49} anything hot in news  to give us that short lived panic?
01[14:14] {@Threei}  no
[14:15] {nemo} they couldn't break the overhead range, so then they go to the otherside
01[14:15] {@Threei}  just a bout of some poisonous substance spreading through someone veins
[14:15] {dino} just say "no"
[14:15] {nemo} people bought in hopes of testing the upper range, now getting out of the way for the jobs report
[14:18] {mojo1} dino what can you do with that, rnet hardly movin,  hide an order in between 90 and 50 say at 77 and hope somebody fills it
[14:18] {thomcbell} might need some sideways here but ubnt 49.50 short break
[14:20] {dino} pretty much, or wait to hit a higher bid
[14:20] {dino} report was good, a beat
[14:21] {mojo1} so where's ur stop
[14:21] {dino} lol, it is wide, thin sucker, hooker spreads, only playing w/200
[14:22] {dino} control risk thru size
[14:22] {dino} would like 49.50s
[14:23] {nemo} spy only 51 mil
[14:23] {mojo1} i don't know what kinda hooker your buying, but i'd run from that
[14:23] {dino} roflol
[14:23] {dino} but they pay me
01[14:23] {@Threei}  lol
[14:23] {dino} just chasig cars, woof!
[14:23] {mojo1} cuz ur their only customer
[14:25] {munky} nemo, i wish u called a bounce buy on fb
[14:25] {nemo} ungrateful bastid
[14:25] {fish_49} it gave you a breakout shot  Munky
[14:25] {fish_49} .62  with .42 stop  half lot
[14:25] {munky} no nemo, i mean call it out
[14:25] {dino} i'm thinking about a teqiola shot
[14:25] {nemo} I called the short, wtf
[14:25] {dino} tequila
[14:26] {munky} i called the short hours before
[14:26] {RonS} celg sm l 7.35
01[14:26] {@Threei}  full room of frikin Nostradamuses
[14:27] {nemo} no, I gave a specific break down on that big bid
01[14:27] {@Threei}  didn't he call FB short in 1654?
[14:27] {fish_49} yes he did  Vad  and he got stopped out
01[14:28] {@Threei}  lol
[14:28] {munky} dont make me come over there with a banana in my pocket nemo
[14:28] {nemo} scary...
[14:28] {nemo} TMI...
[14:29] {nemo} weird week though....gap down,  gap up, doji doji
[14:29] {fish_49} sounds like a football play being called
[14:29] {fish_49} on the break of 3
[14:29] {nemo} OMAHA!
[14:30] {fish_49} need coffee  hold  all calls  (Only the Winners)
[14:31] {RonS} out celg -.20
[14:31] {munky} good stop
01[14:32] {@Threei}  btw, here is a little guide for you lot for when Les is back:
[14:32] {mojo1} what does BTFD mean?
01[14:32] {@Threei}  http://goo.gl/kp5sGT
[14:33] {nemo} BUY THE F'N DIP!
[14:33] {mojo1} lol
[14:34] {RonS} http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g10kNyuLuF4
[14:34] {nemo} there was another one Doug Kass posted back in 2010
[14:34] {munky} whats "F'N" mean?
06[14:35] * nemo faints
01[14:35] {@Threei}  Fornicated Nicely
[14:35] {fish_49} when I say dip you do what?
[14:37] {fish_49} what is he saying  free white nose con?
[14:37] {mojo1} candy i think
[14:37] {fish_49} what is creating out of thin air?
01[14:38] {@Threei}  money by federal reserve?
[14:38] {fish_49} Must be from the south  I clouldn't understand him  lol
[14:39] {RonS} lol
[14:39] {mojo1} why don't we BTFD
01[14:41] {@Threei}  we do when right setup prsentes itself
[14:41] {mojo1} just checking
[14:44] {munky} whats B.T.F.D ?
[14:44] {dino} hey austin powers (mojo), out rnet .40, +1.20
[14:45] {fish_49} nice  did she swallow?
[14:45] {nemo} poor janitor
[14:45] {mojo1} gj
[14:45] {dino} ty buddy
[14:46] {RonS} rnet contortionist hooker...gj
[14:46] {dino} figured you'd take a ride on that one ron
[14:47] {munky} i would dino, but i gotta know ur stop level
[14:47] {RonS} too wide for me buddy...never masterd buying & selling to myself like you...
[14:47] {munky} christ if i go and say stop it .60 cents
[14:47] {dino} $250 max loss/trade
[14:47] {munky} but u hold it thru a dollar down against
[14:48] {munky} then it rises
[14:48] {fish_49} nerves
[14:48] {dino} doesn't matter, just know your $ stop, control thru size.discipline trumps conviction.
[14:48] {nemo} smaller lot sizes
[14:49] {munky} well, u aswered the question, u are willing to take 250 loss
[14:49] {munky} is that on every trade u post in here?
[14:49] {dino} yes, only 200 on that one. vsm=200, smr=300, sm=400, hl=500, nothing mentioned 1k
[14:50] {munky} ok, so understand it as best as a simian can i guess
[14:50] {dino} munky, no. on huge gapers like that yes. but typically my stop is .33-.36 cents on a trade of 300-400 shares. on 500 -.20, on 1k -.12
[14:51] {dino} but big gappers, i must give chance to work....pulp, as we say
[14:52] {munky} my pen ran out of ink writing down vsmsmrbtfdetc
[14:52] {RonS} http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xCXbn4MTnk
[14:53] {dino} lol, but don't trade what i trade until you're more experienced. hookers can hurt you.
01[14:53] {@Threei}  they can?
[14:53] {nemo} not to mention you don't trade what dino trades, unless you understand it
[14:54] {dino} i've been trading full time since 2000, in this room, about 6 years, right vad?
01[14:55] {@Threei}  I'd have to look it up but by memory sounds about right
[14:55] {munky} yea like the hooker in the old movie "fort apache in the bronx"
[14:55] {dino} just remember this and you should be ok: profits=luck; losses=skill.
[14:56] {nemo} imo...indexes probably hang out in this area
[14:56] {nemo} shit gonna' get choppy
[14:56] {fish_49} they recoverd  but the NQ  is still lagging
[14:56] {fish_49} recovered
[14:57] {nemo} this is more about the spy and rut
[14:57] {mojo1} Dino, looks like you're the luckiest bastard with no skill, I've ever seen!
[14:57] {munky} munky falls out of tree laughin
[14:58] {dino} better lucky than good
[14:58] {nemo} yeah, I've said that often
[14:58] {nemo} his wife was probably homecoming queen
[14:58] {dino} timimg and luck play a big part in my life
[14:59] {dino} but remember, some create their own luck
[15:00] {nemo} must be tough to wipe your ass with that horseshoe stuck up there
[15:00] {dino} bitch to sit down
[15:01] {nathan} short MAT .95 break
[15:01] {nemo} .70 range in spy wow
[15:02] {nemo} one could make an argument for vxx long here
01[15:02] {@Threei} Short Setup: SPY  .20 break
01[15:02] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
[15:02] {nemo} pair trade then
01[15:02] {@Threei}  same idea that yours
[15:02] {nemo} yep
01[15:03] {@Threei}  a bit different chart configuration though
[15:03] {nemo} yep
01[15:03] {@Threei}  SPY is inversed C&H, aggressive entry
[15:03] {nemo} mine at vwap support, your's at vwap resistance
[15:03] {dino} nsm spike
01[15:03] {@Threei}  I don't base them on VWAP though
[15:03] {munky} but vxx is cheaper on bp
01[15:03] {@Threei}  just on charts
[15:03] {nemo} I understand
01[15:04] {@Threei}  VXX would probably be .15 break
[15:04] {nemo} vwap on my chart
01[15:04] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .15 break
01[15:04] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
[15:04] {munky} ill gao zvxx
01[15:04] {@Threei}  munky switched to Chinese
[15:04] {nemo} frickin gui lo
[15:05] {dino} f#ck, rnet at 51s
01[15:05] {@Threei}  maybe aggressivER still on SPY... .25 break
01[15:06] {@Threei}  with .36 stop
[15:06] {nemo} ahhh, rorschach stock, huh dino
[15:06] {dino} bumming, i sold at 49.40
01[15:07] {@Threei}  SPY... with any luck, this can turn into a large trade
[15:07] {fish_49} If Spy works  the VXX trade should also?
01[15:07] {@Threei}  yes
[15:08] {dino} vxx, viix
[15:08] {dino} xiv should drop
01[15:08] {@Threei}  want this paired trade to be come a day saver
[15:08] {nemo} you may actuall see an outsize gain on vxx
01[15:08] {@Threei}  2 1:3ers
01[15:09] {@Threei}  at least, may be more
01[15:09] {@Threei}  if real panic comes and that large inverted C&H hits
[15:09] {munky} so u think mkt falls into close , why?
[15:09] {nemo} methinks insurance gets bought more than spy gets sold
01[15:09] {@Threei}  because if the chart configuration?
[15:09] {nemo} weekly options coming due
01[15:10] {@Threei}  of
[15:10] {dino} nemo, think that happens more tomorrow going into weekend
01[15:10] {@Threei}  and volume
[15:10] {nemo} jobs report dino
01[15:10] {@Threei}  look how volume shapes up on that C&H
[15:10] {dino} munky, don't think.
01[15:10] {@Threei}  or at least think twice before thinking
[15:11] {dino} don't let opinions (thinking) get in the way of making $$$
[15:11] {nemo} SOMG
[15:11] {nemo} SOB
[15:11] {nemo} Les
06[15:12] * dino slaps nemo around a bit with a large trout
06[15:12] * nemo slaps dino around with an Rem 870 mariner
[15:12] {dino} raising the stakes
[15:12] {nemo} hehehehe
[15:13] {nemo} never bring a trout to a gunfight
[15:13] {dino} lol
[15:13] {fish_49} I agree
01[15:13] {@Threei}  lol
01[15:13] {@Threei}  drop already SPY
[15:13] {nemo} I used to love fly fishing for trout when I was a kid
[15:14] {_illyakuryakin} a trout will give you a good slap
[15:14] {nemo} so won't the recall from an 870
[15:14] {nemo} recoil
[15:14] {nemo} sheeesh
[15:14] {nemo} spy going back to vwap
[15:14] {fish_49} out VXX
01[15:15] {@Threei}  no go
01[15:15] {@Threei}  SPY's last hope
[15:16] {munky} tough day
[15:17] {nemo} yeah, I'll just bend over and take it like a man
[15:17] {munky} no kidding, ass cracker
[15:17] {nemo} I guess I can hope for a kiss behind the ear or a reach around
[15:17] {fish_49} most men dont bend over and take it... Tell us what yo mean Nemo
[15:18] {nemo} I'll show you when I see you fish
[15:18] {fish_49} keeping my soap on the rope
[15:19] {munky} 7 more days in a row like yester and today and u guys will be free of the munky
[15:20] {dino} hmmm, up 11 days in row here
[15:20] {dino} just jinxed myself i'm sure
[15:20] {fish_49} I will collect my share  and can I also collect for Alex?
[15:20] {munky} bend over and ill give u another horse shoe
[15:21] {fish_49} Do you ever play Horse Shoes? Munky?
[15:21] {dino} barrels
[15:22] {fish_49} quarter?
[15:22] {fish_49} Feels  like all is quiet b4 the storm  lol
[15:23] {dino} munky, w/respect. you must never forget rule # 1
[15:23] {munky} horseshoe was nemos joke
[15:23] {nemo} this is a long setup on vxx again, but indexes are so close to vwaps
[15:24] {dino} rule # 1: you must stay in the game.
[15:25] {dino} strange, 07 running mostly red but markets staying up
[15:26] {fish_49} [15:24] {dino} rule # 1: you must stay in the game.
[15:26] {fish_49} Very Good Point
[15:26] {dino} never forget that or you won't be here
01[15:31] {@Threei}  I hate today
01[15:31] {@Threei}  bit less than I hated yesterday but still
[15:31] {fish_49} more than yesterday?
01[15:31] {@Threei}  no
01[15:31] {@Threei}  got 1:3 and 1:2 earlier, and some scalps
01[15:32] {@Threei}  yesterday was hopeless
[15:32] {munky} ther last two trades were like kicking me when im down lol
[15:35] {fish_49} Toad...  VXX is  the ETF  for the VIX right?  and the Vix is supposed  to represent the fear in the S&P?
[15:35] {nemo} yep, and it looks like nobody is afraid of the jobs report
01[15:35] {@Threei}  generally, yes
[15:38] {nemo} frickin' vwap
[15:38] {fish_49} on?
[15:38] {nemo} indexes, that's where vxx iwm and spy will end up, maybe even finnies
[15:42] {mojo1} nemo are you saying vxx would end at the vwap 43.03 give or take
[15:43] {nemo} I may be wrong about vxx, since there seems to be no fear, but finnies are coming into vwap so is iwm, spy is .10 below...I expect them to be in spitting distance
[15:43] {nemo} this is time to get chopped up
01[15:45] {@Threei}  if SPY drops now I am going to eat my keyboard
[15:45] {nemo} yeah, I got the sig out
[15:45] {fish_49} Wasabi?  Soy Sauce?
[15:45] {nemo} ?
01[15:45] {@Threei}  also, ask munky for banana and cut my wrist with it
[15:46] {dino} gun to the head time
[15:46] {mojo1} me too
[15:46] {nemo} nah, I'll just put it in my mouth
[15:46] {nemo} .40 cal glaser rounds....should be sufficient
01[15:46] {@Threei}  TMI
[15:46] {fish_49} you dont live in high rise  do you Vad?
01[15:46] {@Threei}  mother... 1:1
01[15:46] {@Threei}  another rinse
[15:46] {fish_49} oh ur still in the SPY trade?  I didnt  take it
01[15:47] {@Threei}  no
01[15:47] {@Threei}  it rinsed
01[15:47] {@Threei}  and no on high rise
[15:47] {mojo1} rinsed me too
[15:48] {mojo1} and i getting ready to jump out the window
01[15:48] {@Threei}  don't remember last time when we had 2 losing days in a row
[15:48] {fish_49} I would jump out my window  but  I'm in the basement
[15:49] {nemo} saw movie Last Vegas...it was o.k., but there is a hilarious scene with Morgan Freeman escaping out the window
[15:49] {fish_49} ok  spy bounce here  07
01[15:49] {@Threei}  nope...
01[15:49] {@Threei}  it will drop now and make me cry
[15:49] {fish_49} it bounced  Vad
[15:49] {fish_49} I didnt  say how high
01[15:49] {@Threei}  yes... 3 cents
[15:49] {fish_49} but it bounced  lol
[15:51] {fish_49} according to the rules ,  it has to bounce back up to .32  b4 the close
01[15:51] {@Threei}  1:2
01[15:51] {@Threei}  this is one not very tasty keyboard
[15:51] {fish_49} I'm holding breath  Please let me know when it bounces
[15:52] {fish_49} vxx short here
01[15:52] {@Threei}  let me try to bite of the other part, numeric
01[15:52] {@Threei}  nah, same crap
[15:52] {munky} interesting nemo, vxx made to vwap
[15:53] {nemo} yep
[15:53] {dino} nemo's good at picking areas
[15:53] {nemo} now let's see what they do with the indexes
[15:53] {dino} calling it a day all, happy hour calls
[15:54] {dino} thx for ideas
[15:54] {fish_49} take care Dino
01[15:54] {@Threei}  takecare dino
01[15:54] {@Threei}  SPY... can't believe this rinse
[15:54] {dino} will do, gn
[15:54] {fish_49} I'm waiting  to see if Vad  can eat the entire KB  in one sitting
[15:54] {nemo} here comes a bounce, let's see
[15:55] {nemo} need my doji
[15:55] {fish_49} ok  so there is the bounce  I called
[15:55] {fish_49} and  there is the short on the VXX
[15:55] {fish_49} I called it back in 1856
[15:55] {fish_49} lol
[15:56] {fish_49} hey  good night all
[15:56] {fish_49} it was a losing day but  I had fun and learned a bit doing it
[15:56] {fish_49} thanks
01[15:56] {@Threei}  OK guys, have a good evening
01[15:56] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:57] {munky} ok goodnite
[16:01] {mojo1} otay
[16:01] {mojo1} gn


March-April 2014 Outlook: Best Picture

TradeTheNews.com March-April 2014 Outlook: Best Picture



The year got off to a rocky start as the impending end of the Fed's quantitative easing program led to a minor retrenchment in the markets. After a blockbuster year for stocks in 2013, major US indices fell in January for the first time in four years. Emerging markets took the brunt of the tapering impact, exacerbated by political problems in places like Turkey, Venezuela, and most recently the Ukraine. Some worse than usual winter weather in the US piled on (literally and figuratively) leading to some re-pricing of risk. Three US Treasury note auctions in last week of February showed strong demand, indicating the bond market also has some reservations about the economic outlook.

But investors cast aside early doubts, and markets came back with guns blazing like an action movie hero in the second act. The S&P500 dipped only single digit percentages in January before rebounding smartly, and European indices largely followed suit, though Japan's Nikkei and many emerging market indices are lagging behind.

Whatever caused the stock market swoon earlier this year, investors have chosen to accentuate the positives like solid Q4 earnings reports, and eliminates the negatives like slow retail sales and industrial production data. Much like the Academy Awards broadcast , the markets only really seem interested in presenting the best picture. Some new MacGuffins may yet emerge to reverse plot of the market's risk-on sentiment, but so far even the Russia heavy (Putin) has failed to changed the course of the story.

American Hustle

In the US, the major question continues to be how markets will respond to the Fed tapering quantitative easing. The Fed has taken the last year to carefully frame tapering not as the beginning of the end of accommodation, but merely as the withdrawal of additional stimulus, and has indicated that barring a disruptive new trend in the data, the QE rollback will stay on its $10B per meeting pace and wrap up in late 2014. So far US markets have bought in to that script, continuing to set new record highs on the S&P and Dow, but as the end of QE approaches there could be some renewed jitters, and the equities could get more skittish. Already some chartists note that the most recent highs are getting narrower in breadth, based largely on a few outsized winners (like Tesla), and the doomsayers keep pointing to stock index charts that suggests an eerie similarity between the last year and the lead up to the 1929 crash.

Brazen predictions aside, the end of QE is being absorbed without too much tumult, but eventually forward looking markets will start to model what comes after QE has ended. Fed Chair Yellen and her cohorts have stated publically that they are looking to retool forward guidance, taking it away from quantitative measures like the 6.5% unemployment threshold and back to the more qualitative guidance seen pre-crisis. Given the broad range of opinions expressed by FOMC members on this subject, it could reasonably take the rest of the year for the Fed to craft their new forward guidance, but we will continue to see glimpses of its evolution in "rushes" of Fed speeches and minutes in the months to come.

Things are clearer than they have been for a long time on the US fiscal front. After producing nothing but political cliff hangers over the last few years, Washington has finally made some progress toward reducing uncertainty. Congress has cleared the decks for 2014, settling the debt ceiling issue as well as funding the government through the mid-term elections and into early next year. The politicians are now discussing less pressing issues like raising the minimum wage and extending unemployment insurance (UI). The minimum wage is a perennial football in Washington, while the expiration of UI benefits for millions of Americans could hurt consumer spending at a sensitive moment of the recovery, and play more havoc with unemployment figures that have already been skewed by structural changes that have noticeably shifted the workforce participation rate.

Aside from the jobless rate falling faster than expected, US economic data has been largely disappointing for a couple of months. It is yet unclear, however, whether its root is a cyclical slowdown or just that the data has been tainted by the worst winter weather in decades. The weather may give us a free pass for Q1, but heading into the spring the data needs to shake off those temporary factors.

A worst case scenario for the Fed would be payroll and housing numbers failing to pick up in the spring, testing the central bank's resolve to finishing tapering. Though the FOMC policy statement leaves nominal flexibility, bank officials have made it clear that it would take a significant outlook change to deviate from the current path of tapering. So if the cuts in QE are paused, then the market reaction could be exaggerated. Central bank officials are also keenly aware that a mid-course shift in tapering could further chip away at Fed credibility that has been eroded by dodgy economic forecasts and the communications bobble in mid-2013 that led to the 'taper tantrum'.

A spring thaw in US data could be led by a snap back in housing. Already the January new home sales reading came in at a 7-month high, despite the cold weather woes. If other indicators like building permits and existing home sales start to confirm an improvement in the housing market, they could in turn lead other economic data higher, perhaps shaking the winter malaise off of consumer spending and industrial production numbers. Better numbers in the next two months could still salvage a decent rebound in growth when the advance Q1 GDP data is released on April 30.

Brussels Buyers Club

After many years of struggle, the European economy is starting to show some renewed signs of life. Unemployment has stabilized, Ireland is exiting its extraordinary support program followed closely by Portugal, and there are no new sovereign financial crises on the radar. Sovereign bond yields between peripheral nations and the German bund are at their narrowest in years, indicating cohesion is returning to the euro zone after it was nearly spun apart. Within the zone the only current political drama is in Italy, where an ambitious young party boss has pushed out Prime Minister Letta, though it remains unclear if this will be a setback for Italy's economy which just scored its first quarterly growth reading in over two years.

Lately, the chief concern for Europe has been persistent low inflation. The European Central Bank, which has tried get out in front of some previous policy hazards, has had a more difficult time taking a decision on this matter. Officials have been jawboning the issue, never missing a chance to note "inflation expectations are well anchored", but they seem to be hesitant to pull the trigger on the next evolution of policy accommodation.

The latest reports, however, indicate a move could come as soon as the March 6th policy meeting, when new staff economic projections through 2016 will be released. It appears that with inflation sitting on the lower boundary of its comfort zone, there is a growing consensus at the ECB that preemptive action is needed again to head off a crisis moment before it erupts. Last year a move to negative deposit rates got a lot of discussion, though it had some detractors worried about unintended consequences. Indications now are that a small cut in the main refi rate is under consideration, or that the central bank may instead elect to end the so-called sterilization of bond purchases, the practice of the ECB selling an equivalent asset for every purchase it makes under its Securities Markets Program (SMP). Tight liquidity in the euro zone has contributed to numerous sterilizations failing recently, which appears to suit the ECB's ends given that it wants to boost the money supply. With even the hard-line German Bundesbank now ostensibly supportive of ending sterilization, ECB President Draghi has the power to transform the SMP into quantitative easing in all but name. A green light for ending sterilization at the March or April meeting would release approximately 180 billion euros, almost doubling the amount of excess liquidity in the euro zone financial system, and could achieve the added benefit of lowering the euros exchange rate.

At the next couple of ECB policy meetings Draghi will also likely continue to discuss ideas for a new LTRO-style operation that would target increased lending to the real economy to boost growth and inflation rather than for bank capital formation as the original LTROs fell into. Such a program still has numerous technical and political hurdles to clear, but Draghi should keep it in his rhetorical toolbox as he works to reinforce euro zone stability.

Though the euro zone and EU are restoring a sense of stability, they don't have to look too far beyond their borders for fresh headaches. The upheaval in the Ukraine has revived the specter of the Cold War as the populace struggles between the allure of Europe and its historic ties with Russia to the east. Russian President Putin tried to force the issue by mobilizing troops, but the threat of international sanctions and an immediate double digit drop in the Russian stock market seemed to give Mr. Putin pause. He quickly wound down the "military exercises" in the region around Ukraine and suggested that military force would be used only as a last resort in defense of Russia's interests in Crimea. For the moment, tensions have eased, though a Crimea referendum on its status within the Ukraine set for March 30 may provoke a more violent clash if Ukraine asserts its territorial sovereignty and refuses to let go of the Black Sea holdings that Russia ceded to it sixty years ago.

The Dragon of Wall Street

As China continues its effort to engineer a shift from an export led economy to one driven by consumer demand, the world's second largest economy is experiencing some growing pains. A wave of subpar manufacturing data continues to raise questions about the nation's economic vitality, though the latest trade balance number was encouraging with higher than expected imports and exports. The official 2013 GDP tally came in at 7.7%, two-tenths ahead of the official target, but the weakest growth in 14 years.

The National People's Congress (NPC) meeting the first week of March (starts 3/5) may set the tone for the economy in 2014. The meeting will produce the official macro targets for the year as well as set the agenda for economic reform efforts. Most analysts see the central government maintaining the official growth target at 7.5% for 2014, necessary to keep on pace for achieving the decade-long goal of doubling the economy through 2020.

Others see a different outcome. Ahead of the event, a government-affiliated think tank called the State Information Center proposed lowering this year's target to 7% as a signal to local governments to relax their single-minded focus on growth, trim back unnecessary investments, and address economic reform. In November, Premier Li Keqiang indicated that 7.2% GDP growth is require d to create the 10 million jobs annually needed to keep urban employment levels steady. Additionally, one Chinese news report indicated that nearly two dozen provinces would lower their GDP targets this year while only two looked to raise them. Given this, there is some speculation that China's government could set the growth target at 7% or couch a 7.5% number as a "projection" rather than as a firm target.

A lower GDP growth goal could be taken as a signal that Beijing is getting more serious about tackling the economic reforms needed to address international jitters about exploding local government debt, nearing $3 trillion in mid-2013. The NPC could also announce steps to improve and structure local government access to the municipal bond market to replace ad-hoc funding through short term bank loans.

[*Note: since the time of writing, the NPC has announced that for the third year in a row the GDP target will remain at 7.5%, though the 2014 target was labeled as "elastic", which one National People's Congress deputy said was aimed at "changing the mindset of GDP worship" amongst local level officials].

China's master planners have also started moving the currency in unexpected ways. The yuan has dropped steadily in 2014, falling over 1% against the greenback in a few weeks after appreciating 10% over the last three years. Analysts say the People's Bank of China is engineering the reversal in an effort to punish currency speculators and to squeeze out hot money inflows, which amounted to something like $150B last year. The concern appears to be that the inflows of foreign capital could complicate the government's latest economic reform efforts coming out of the NPC meeting. Reports are that the move has had the unintended consequence of flooding China's money market with local currency and pushing down unofficial lending rates, contrary to the governments goal of keeping borrowing costs elevated.

Chinese corporate debt levels have pushed to record highs, ending 2013 at $12T or about 120% of GDP, which has raised some concerns about the potential for instability in Chinese financial markets. Until now the government in Beijing has facilitated bailouts of every major business venture that has threatened to default, but press reports have suggested that growing corporate debt levels will obligate some future defaults and an acceleration of domestic restructuring. When the government chooses to allow a firm to default it may lead to some retrenchment in Chinese financial markets as investors learn that they cannot assume they will always be made whole.

The moment of truth may have just arrived in the form of Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology [002506.CN], which just announced that it will not able to repay in full 90 milion yuan of interest on its corporate bond. This amounts to the first default on publicly traded debt in modern Chinese history, and one analyst has already suggested that Chaori's default could be China's "Bear Stearns moment". This may conjure some short term uncertainty, but ultimately allowing some failures will improve Chinese markets, prompting investors to make more studied choices when deploying capital.

12 Years a Malaise

In neighboring Japan the bull case is quite simple: more of the same. The Nikkei exploded higher last year on optimism about Prime Minister Abe's radical turnaround plan that snapped the nation out of a decades-long economic coma. The next potential stumbling block Abe's eponymous scheme is an increase in the consumption tax, meant to chip away at the nation's huge deficit, and set to go into effect at the start of the new fiscal year on the 1st of April. Japanese consumerism could feel a chill in as the tax on most products and services rises from 5% up to 8%, with another two-percent increase slated to occur in late 2015. Government and central bank officials seem to be quite confident that their stimulus plans will lead companies to boost the wages of their workers enough to offset the sales tax increase. Indeed many of the country's biggest manufacturers have already indicated a willingness to raise worker base pay for the first time in years, but if wage gains don't materialize on a nationwide scope it could pose a risk to the Abe administration in politically fickle Japan.

Gravity

What goes up must eventually come down, though it matters how you come down as Sandra Bullock's character in the motion picture Gravity can attest. In a world of political crises in eastern Europe, lackluster economic data in the US and China, uncomfortably low inflation in the EMU, and the first big test of the Japanese reflation planwhat does it all amount to? So far not enough to erode the risk-on sentiment that is keeping this five-year-old bull market going.

That could change with a bad turn of events like US data staying tepid once the weather excuse is gone, or a shooting-war erupting in Ukraine. More likely though, this season the markets will mirror the movie business dumping forgettable bombs on the public in the first few months of the year, but then bringing out the sequels and blockbusters in the spring. If things go well, the Wall Street crowd could be lining up to see 2013: Part II.




CALENDAR
MARCH
2: China non-manufacturing PMI; China HSBC manufacturing PMI
3: Various EU manufacturing PMIs; US ISM manufacturing PMI; US personal spending
4: UK construction PMI; Spain unemployment
5: Various EU services PMIs; UK inflation report hearings; US ADP employment; US ISM non-manufacturing PMI; China National People's Congress begins
6: German factory orders; BOE policy statement; ECB policy statement; US factor orders
7: German industrial production; US payrolls and unemployment; US trade balance; China trade balance
8: China CPI and PPI

9: Japan Q4 final GDP; Japan current account
10: BOJ policy statement
11: UK manufacturing production
12: EU industrial production; G7 meeting
13: China industrial production; ECB monthly bulletin; US retail sales
14: US PPI; US prelim U of M consumer sentiment

17: Euro Zone CPI; US industrial production
18: German ZEW economic sentiment; US housing starts and building permits
19: BOE minutes and inflation letter; UK annual budget announcement; UK unemployment; FOMC policy statement and press conference; Japan trade balance; China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI
20: Euro Zone flash PMI; UK retail sales; US existing home sales; Philly Fed manufacturing; US flash manufacturing PMI
21: Euro Zone current account

25: German Ifo business climate; UK CPI and PPI; US new home sales; US consumer confidence
26: UK final Q4 GDP; US durable goods orders
27: US final Q4 GDP; US pending home sales; Japan industrial production; Japan retail sales
28: German retail sales; US personal spending

30: Crimea referendum on its status within the Ukraine
31: Euro Zone flash CPI estimate; Chicago PMI; China manufacturing PMI; China HSBC final manufacturing PMI

APRIL
1: Japan consumption tax increase to 8% become effective; UK manufacturing PMI; Euro Zone unemployment; US ISM manufacturing
2: US ADP employment; US factory orders
3: Various EU services PMIs; ECB policy statement; US trade balance; US ISM non-manufacturing PMI
4: German factory orders; US payrolls and unemployment

7: German industrial production; China CPI and PPI; China GDP; BOJ policy statement (tentative); China trade balance
8: China industrial production; UK manufacturing production
9: FOMC minutes
10: BOE policy statement
11: US PPI; US prelim U of M consumer sentiment

14: Euro Zone industrial production; US retail sales
15: UK CPI and PPI; German Zew economic sentiment
16: UK unemployment; Euro Zone CPI; US housing starts and building permits; US industrial production
17: Philly Fed manufacturing index
18: G20 meeting

21: Japan trade balance
22: US existing home sales
23: BOE minutes; US new home sales; China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI
24: Euro Zone flash PMI; UK retail sales; US flash manufacturing PMI
25: US final U of M consumer sentiment

28: US pending home sales
29: UK prelim Q1 GDP; US consumer confidence; Japan industrial production; Japan retail sales; BOJ policy statement
30: Euro Zone flash CPI; ADP employment; US advance Q1 GDP (1st reading); FOMC policy statement; China manufacturing PMI; HSBC final manufacturing PMI


MAY
1: Various EU manufacturing PMIs; US personal spending; US ISM manufacturing PMI
2: Euro Zone unemployment; US payrolls and unemployment; US factory orders; China non-manufacturing PMI


25: Ukraine elections