July 08 2014

Very nice first half of the day with a few strong trades, followed by shaky afternoon with a few stops. Mostly washout day.

Session Time: Tue Jul 08 00:00:00 2014
01[09:19] {@Threei}  looks like total vacation
[09:19] {troub} good morning you all
01[09:20] {@Threei}  morning troub
[09:20] {cosmo} I come here for vacation
[09:20] {troub} everyone on vacation today
01[09:20] {@Threei}  except ese
01[09:20] {@Threei}  he is in picket line
[09:21] {RonS} gm
01[09:21] {@Threei}  ron :)
01[09:21] {@Threei}  we know exactly where dino is... let's surprise him?
[09:22] {troub} vad, make 100% 1:3 calls today. Teach them to miss
01[09:22] {@Threei}  good idea
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -NURO +36.5% (FDA clears Wearable Tech for OTC use in chronic pain)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -TXMD +26.6% (follow-through on FBR Capital initiation at Outperform)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -AAV +8.2% (buying off yesterday's downward move)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -CGI +7.0% (Stifel Nicolas raise to Buy)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -ANAC +6.8% (FDA approval of KERYDIN)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  - SMFG -7.7% (Japan FSA regulator to increase supervision over asset management industry)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -TFM -6.2% (GS cuts to Sell)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -DAL -1.7% (poor Air France traffic)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -AAL -1.3% (poor Air France traffic)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  cheapies making big runs...
01[09:26] {@Threei}  normally signals last phase of bull market
01[09:30] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .25 break
01[09:30] {@Threei}  If holds  .35
01[09:31] {@Threei}  no go
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .70 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[09:34] {@Threei}  grr
01[09:35] {@Threei}  2 cents from 1:1
01[09:37] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .35 break
01[09:37] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
01[09:40] {@Threei}  TWTR just can't find bottom
[09:40] {nemo} nothing has found the bottom yet
[09:40] {nemo} finnies trying
01[09:41] {@Threei}  1:1  FB
01[09:42] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:47] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .85 break
01[09:47] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
01[09:47] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[09:48] {nemo} S3 is .45
01[09:48] {@Threei}  should be bottoming here
01[09:48] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .80 break
[09:48] {nemo} between here and .45
01[09:49] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[09:49] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:49] {troub} too fast
01[09:50] {@Threei}  yeah
[09:50] {nemo} Yeah, Vad can't type for shit but boy can he hit those bids
[09:51] {troub} time for voice or is accent worse?
01[09:51] {@Threei}  second day of nice selling... could we finally be in something different than relentless buying
[09:51] {nemo} yeah, german output showed 3rd month of contraction
01[09:52] {@Threei} Long Setup:  WMT  .35 break
01[09:52] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
01[09:56] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:09] {nemo} if twtr doesn'
[10:09] {nemo} t hold here teswt of 38 likely
01[10:12] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .55 break
01[10:13] {@Threei}  If holds  .65
[10:17] {nemo} PRU looks shor below .50
[10:17] {nemo} little spready
01[10:18] {@Threei}  come on TWTR
01[10:18] {@Threei}  you know you want to kill bottom fishers
01[10:18] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:19] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:20] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:20] {@Threei}  out
[10:21] {nemo} should test near the whole
01[10:23] {@Threei}  beautiful
[10:24] {nemo} what?
01[10:24] {@Threei}  love this selling, gives me hope we might get sustanable bear phase
[10:24] {nemo} I'm looking for the collapse of civilization
01[10:24] {@Threei}  that goes without questions
01[10:25] {@Threei}  but until we get that lucky, let's settle on some nice short plays
01[10:27] {@Threei} Short Setup: DAL  .90 break hl
01[10:27] {@Threei}  If holds  35
01[10:28] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[10:28] {nemo} market trying to bottom
01[10:29] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .85 break
01[10:29] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
01[10:34] {@Threei}  TWTR over a dollar drop since entry
01[10:34] {@Threei}  troub, see what I meant saying that bear market is much more fun?
01[10:39] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .45 break
01[10:39] {@Threei}  If holds  .35
01[10:41] {@Threei}  stop to .39
01[10:41] {@Threei}  touched 1:1
01[10:41] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:51] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  37 break
[10:51] {nemo} oops
01[10:51] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:53] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:57] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:57] {@Threei}  1:4
01[10:58] {@Threei}  out
[11:12] {nemo} FB might be bounce time
01[11:15] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .90 break
01[11:15] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[11:16] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:18] {@Threei}  1:2
01[11:18] {@Threei}  09:22] {troub} vad, make 100% 1:3 calls today. Teach them to miss
01[11:18] {@Threei}  getting there :)
[11:19] {troub} not bad
[11:19] {troub} actually darn good
[11:21] {nemo} .53 is FB 50 day
[11:30] {nemo} .56 the low so far
[11:37] {nemo} DAX closed on the lows
01[11:38] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .35 break
01[11:39] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
01[11:44] {@Threei}  nope
[11:51] {nemo} PETM
01[11:54] {@Threei}  was looking at FB for .50 break short
01[11:54] {@Threei}  haven't reconditioned myself for "short at will" yet, lol
[11:54] {nemo} yeah, but with that daily it has to be close
[11:55] {nemo} it's been #1 weak on the algo all morning though
[11:55] {nemo} still full red
01[12:20] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  37 break
01[12:20] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
[12:21] {nemo} SPY just closed a big gap, shorts might be tough for awhile
01[12:22] {@Threei}  MSFT Intends to end mainstream support (free) for Windows 7 on January 13, 2015
01[12:22] {@Threei}  what??
[12:23] {nemo} they usually only support back two versions, means something else must be coming
01[12:23] {@Threei}  this is lunacy
01[12:23] {@Threei}  the best windows ever made
01[12:24] {@Threei}  huge share of users just don't need anything else, and won't for years
01[12:25] {@Threei}  Air raid sirens heard in Tel Aviv, signaling possible rocket strike
01[12:30] {@Threei} Long Setup:  EBAY  .35 break
01[12:30] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
[12:32] {nemo} petm again
[12:32] {nemo} testing lows
01[12:42] {@Threei}  EBAY is valid
01[12:44] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .75 break
01[12:44] {@Threei}  If holds  .65
01[12:47] {@Threei}  1:1
01[12:59] {@Threei}  Cosmopolitan: J.K. Rowling just wrote another story about Harry Potter
01[12:59] {@Threei}  yay...
[12:59] {nemo} my life was so bereft
[13:00] {nemo} she's probably jumping the shark with this one
01[13:00] {@Threei}  going to get better now
[13:40] {nemo} selling completely exhausted, no stocks on the weak side now
[13:42] {nemo} we probably close green
01[13:45] {@Threei}  easy
[13:46] {nemo} SPY went down and basically closed that gap and it was up from there
[13:46] {nemo} think the gap was .74 and it got to what, .76
[13:55] {spalqui} hello
01[13:55] {@Threei}  hi
[13:55] {spalqui} is there anyone there?
06[13:55] * nemo racks the slide
[13:55] {spalqui} how are you?
06[13:55] * nemo turns on laser
[13:55] {spalqui} This is the trading room chat right?
01[13:56] {@Threei}  see private essage
01[14:01] {@Threei} Long Setup:  YHOO  60 break
01[14:01] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[14:04] {@Threei}  .50 is more reliable support
01[14:04] {@Threei}  but we are in too ijactive time
01[14:04] {@Threei}  inactive
[14:17] {nemo} So, did I ever tell you about my Emergency Room Doctor friend and his gerbil story?
01[14:18] {@Threei}  no, but here is my new favorite photo
01[14:18] {@Threei}  https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xap1/t1.0-9/10437560_10150388425744982_8457862513280799874_n.jpg
[14:18] {nemo} That's kinda like "If I promise to miss you, will you go away?"
[14:23] {nemo} like appl short here below .20?
[14:24] {nemo} nope
[14:28] {nemo} frickin' tempting
01[14:34] {@Threei}  gs!
01[14:34] {@Threei}  missed nice day
[14:34] {nemo} just call him Lloyd
01[14:35] {@Threei}  lol
[14:38] {goinshort} just got back in town
[14:42] {RonS}  lol...I don't blame the GOP for going to Cleveland. It's so hot in Dallas, Bill Clinton got in bed with Hillary, just to cool off
01[14:43] {@Threei}  lol
01[14:43] {@Threei}  cruel
01[14:51] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .80 break
01[14:51] {@Threei}  If holds  .70'
01[14:55] {@Threei}  change to .60 break
01[14:55] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[15:00] {@Threei}  *(US) MAY CONSUMER CREDIT: $19.6B V $20.0BE
01[15:00] {@Threei}  (IL) Reportedly explosion heard in the area of Tel Aviv; said to be an intercepted rocket - press - Follow up: Air raid sirens now going off in Jerusalem, Haifa and the northern region of Israel, near Binyamina
01[15:00] {@Threei}  man...
[15:01] {nemo} that might not be good, what were the credit card debt comps
01[15:01] {@Threei}  (IQ) Pentagon official: US has increased suveillance flights over Iraq to about 50/day (from three dozen per day previously)
01[15:01] {@Threei}  - Total consumer credit annual rate +7.4% - Revolving credit +$1.79B; +2.5% annual rate - Non Revolving credit +$17.8B; +9.3% annual rate - Prior Consumer Credit revised lower from $26.85B to $26.1B
01[15:02] {@Threei}  I think Obama deserves one more Nobel prize
[15:02] {nemo} with the dynamite attached?
01[15:03] {@Threei}  no go FB
01[15:15] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .30 break
01[15:15] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
[15:16] {nemo} yeah, was looking at .18 break spy
[15:16] {nemo} iwm spy and finnies all had same setup
01[15:16] {@Threei}  wanted .25 initially, too bad didn't go for it
01[15:18] {@Threei}  FB rinse
[15:18] {nemo} probably a short here
[15:19] {nemo} guess so
01[15:20] {@Threei}  grrrr
01[15:34] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .65 break
01[15:34] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
01[15:36] {@Threei}  shrug...
01[15:36] {@Threei}  as much as I liked first half of the day...
01[15:42] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .30 break
01[15:42] {@Threei}  last try
01[15:48] {@Threei}  stop to .23
01[15:49] {@Threei}  ok
01[15:50] {@Threei}  our morning, their afternoon
01[15:50] {@Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
01[15:50] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:50] {goinshort} cya all tomorrow - thanks
01[15:51] {@Threei}  take care gs

July 07 2014

Catch of the Day, second 1:3er today

Session Time: Mon Jul 07 00:00:00 2014
01[09:11] {@Threei}  Excessive drinking causes memory loss. Even worse than that - it causes memory loss
[09:11] {nemo} young I was, money I needed
01[09:15] {@Threei}  -EVRY +24.64% (labor union ratification agreement; Monomoy Capital investment)
01[09:15] {@Threei}  -BDSI +15.3% (positive top-line results from the phase III clinical trial of BEMA buprenorphine)
01[09:16] {@Threei}  -GTAT -8.0% (downgrades)
01[09:16] {@Threei}  -USU -7.9% (follow-through)
[09:17] {troub} good morning you all
01[09:17] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  not liking these cheapies normally, but EVRY might be worth watching
[09:20] {ese} morning
[09:22] {ese} am still in recovery mode rom Saturday night shiskabob party
01[09:22] {@Threei}  ese :)
[09:23] {RonS} hi guys
01[09:23] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:23] {ese} vodka shots from a a glass replica of an AK47 is not something one does every weekend.......damn!!!was fun though
01[09:23] {@Threei}  hehe
[09:23] {ese} morning ron
[09:24] {ese} vad
[09:24] {nemo} wonder if I could get him to put his mouth on the barrel of my M4?
[09:25] {ese} ha ha ....ha ha
[09:26] {ese} oh ....and.....the shiskabob was fabulous as well!
01[09:28] {@Threei}  :)
01[09:30] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .20 break
01[09:30] {@Threei}  wow EVRY
01[09:30] {@Threei}  unobtainable FB, too fast
01[09:30] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:31] {ese} I'll say....labor union ratification............unlike my union
[09:31] {ese} evry
01[09:32] {@Threei} Short Setup: BDSI  14 break hl
01[09:32] {@Threei}  ugh
01[09:32] {@Threei}  too fast again
01[09:32] {@Threei}  broke while I typed
[09:33] {ese} L kndi.02
[09:34] {ese} out kndi .15 +.13
[09:34] {ese} whoa.....too soon
[09:34] {ese} shot up to .30
[09:35] {ese} ah well....1 to 1 ain't bad
01[09:36] {@Threei}  EVRY, watching for long on pullback
[09:36] {ese} nice daily chrt....looks like rounded bottom to me
01[09:36] {@Threei}  FB too
01[09:39] {@Threei}  EVRY got away
01[09:39] {@Threei}  FB, from under .30
01[09:43] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .90 break
01[09:43] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[09:45] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:46] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:48] {@Threei}  1:3
01[09:48] {@Threei}  out
[09:49] {ese} sppi bdsi simo
01[09:51] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .35 break
01[09:52] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
[09:52] {ese} in
01[09:52] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:54] {ese} out .43
01[09:56] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  119 break
01[09:56] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
[09:57] {nemo} fb looks long break of .40
[09:58] {nemo} qhestion is how far it goes in this tight range
01[09:58] {@Threei}  change IWM to .95 break
01[09:58] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
[09:58] {ese} ya.....am still lookin at facebook nemo for same reason
[09:59] {nemo} this range so tight
01[10:00] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:02] {@Threei} Short Setup: IWM  .75 break
01[10:02] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
01[10:07] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[10:08] {nemo} IWM bottomed at S3
[10:08] {nemo} what news WYNN?
01[10:09] {@Threei}  nothing fresh
01[10:09] {@Threei}  downgraded on June 25
[10:11] {ese} L fb .05
[10:14] {ese} fb stopped .96 -.09
01[10:15] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .05 break
01[10:15] {@Threei}  If holds  41
01[10:15] {@Threei}  meh
01[10:21] {@Threei}  in case you wondered, and haven't slept all night:
01[10:21] {@Threei}  Afghan election results: Ghani 56.4%, Abdullah 43.6%
[10:22] {nemo} DE .75 break short looks good, stop above .80
01[10:22] {@Threei}  TWTR rinse
[10:22] {nemo} first support around .65
01[10:23] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .40 brfeak
01[10:23] {@Threei}  If holds  .35
[10:27] {ese} have traded the vxx but find it difficult
01[10:28] {@Threei}  being at all time low, should start providing better opportunities
[10:29] {nemo} can always get oversolder
[10:39] {nemo} next level for DE is .45
[10:40] {nemo} iwm higher low
01[10:42] {@Threei}  stop to .39
[10:48] {nemo} stop on DE .75
01[10:48] {@Threei}  nive one, 1:2
[10:48] {nemo} .40 is bounce territory
01[10:48] {@Threei}  nice
[10:49] {nemo} stop to .65
[10:49] {nemo} .66
[10:52] {nemo} mos
[10:53] {nemo} 118.34 is S4 on IWM
[10:53] {nemo} .56 stop
[10:53] {nemo} this is S2
[10:54] {nemo} on DE that is
[10:55] {nemo} DE gap close
[10:55] {nemo} to the penny
01[10:56] {@Threei}  wow VXX
[10:56] {nemo} stop to .50
[10:57] {nemo} it breaks this low likely tests .20
01[10:59] {@Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .10 break
01[11:00] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
[11:02] {nemo} DE stop to .46
01[11:05] {@Threei}  no go
01[11:14] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .65 break
01[11:15] {@Threei}  If holds  .57
01[11:19] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[11:21] {@Threei}  wow
01[11:21] {@Threei}  was worth a fade
01[11:22] {@Threei} Short Setup: IWM  .20 break
01[11:23] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
[11:31] {nemo} ha, DE goes back to entry and drops
01[11:31] {@Threei}  stop to .26
[11:31] {nemo} iwm could argue long here
[11:33] {nemo} traders are so conditioned to buy the dips
01[11:39] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .60 break
01[11:39] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[11:41] {@Threei}  change to .45 break
01[11:41] {@Threei}  change to .40 break
01[11:41] {@Threei}  If holds  .35
01[11:44] {@Threei}  nah
01[11:44] {@Threei}  frikin IWM rinse
01[11:45] {@Threei}  quite a few of those today
01[11:49] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .10 break
01[11:49] {@Threei}  If holds  110
01[11:53] {@Threei}  1:1
01[12:00] {@Threei}  1:2
01[12:02] {@Threei}  will try for 1:4
01[12:02] {@Threei}  1:3
01[12:38] {@Threei} Long Setup:  EVRY  .50 break
01[12:38] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
[12:41] {ese} cya vad......have a good rest of the day
01[12:41] {@Threei}  take care ese
[12:42] {ese} tks for saturday again  was awesome
01[12:53] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[12:53] {@Threei}  not sure it's worth recalibration
[12:54] {nemo} iwm might be worth a long break of .21
[12:55] {nemo} stop around .15
01[12:57] {@Threei}  (GR) EU official reportedly indicates that Greece's reform measures are falling behind schedule and it may need additional aid at some point
01[12:57] {@Threei}  LOL
[13:00] {nemo} oh well, this doesn't look good
[13:04] {nemo} then again
[13:05] {nemo} wow, look at the last 10 minutes worth of 1 minute candles on iwm, is that .22 area key?
[13:05] {nemo} .23
01[13:06] {@Threei}  (RU) Europe Union Govts have come to an agreement in principle to add names to sanction list as a result of the Ukraine issue
01[13:06] {@Threei}  ouch
01[13:12] {@Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .05 break
01[13:13] {@Threei}  If holds  .15
01[13:18] {@Threei}  trail to .11
[13:43] {nemo} this is like tradewind currents around the equator
[14:29] {nemo} DVN looks short
01[14:39] {@Threei}  good call
[14:40] {nemo} this should be close to spy bottom
[14:40] {nemo} ,18 is S3
[14:40] {nemo} they may want to flush it though
01[14:52] {@Threei}  so, what's the last hour diirection
[14:55] {nemo} well, I would think shorts wouldn'
[14:55] {nemo} t press their bets up towards vwap
01[14:57] {@Threei}  Pink Floyd to release new album after 20-year gap
[14:57] {nemo} indexes having trouble stayin above bearish formations
[14:57] {nemo} wow
[14:57] {nemo} I saw them a few times
[14:57] {nemo} I think
01[14:59] {@Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .90 break
01[14:59] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
06[15:24] * @Threei kicks LVS in the rear
01[15:33] {@Threei}  CIA reportedly involved in a spying operation against Germany
01[15:33] {@Threei}  why not
01[15:33] {@Threei}  better than on US citizens
[15:33] {nemo} oh jeez, the CIA NSA AND BND are blood brothers, of course they spy on each other
01[15:33] {@Threei}  Manitoba wants prostitution bill amended
01[15:34] {@Threei}  I don't want to know
[15:34] {nemo} BND took me on a weekend ski trip once
[15:34] {nemo} I can't tell you where we went
01[15:46] {@Threei}  very inactive close
[15:47] {nemo} 4 day weekend
[15:47] {nemo} tomorrow will be more lively
01[15:47] {@Threei}  people are dizzy still?
01[15:47] {@Threei}  ese certainly is
01[15:47] {@Threei}  last couple shots were too much
[15:47] {nemo} it's the unequal pressure between the inside of his skull and normal seal level air pressure
01[15:50] {@Threei}  Effective today, recreational marijuana can be sold in Washington State
[15:52] {nemo} there's your spy vwap
01[15:54] {@Threei}  time's running out
01[15:54] {@Threei}  taking scalp
01[15:54] {@Threei}  thank you all, have a great evening
01[15:54] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow

Market Week Wrap-up

TradeTheNews.com  Weekly Market Update: 2014 at the Halfway Point

- Low rates, plenty of central bank accommodation and record low inflation levels helped global risk assets extend their long run of strong advances in the second quarter of 2014, which ended on Monday. In the US, equity indices saw their sixth straight quarter of gains: the S&P500 gained 4.7% (up 6.1% YTD), the Nasdaq added 5% (up 5.5% YTD) while the DJIA only gained 2.2% (up 1.5% YTD). This week more strong data help nudge the DJIA and S&P500 to fresh record highs, with the June jobs report and other economic data aiding sentiment. US momentum has helped sustain global gains, however there are signs of cracks: June PMI reports out this week were mixed and/or flattish in Europe, Japan and China, with practically no surprises either to the up or the downside. Inflation in Europe remains stalled at a dangerously low level, while rumblings in the Chinese property market scare everyone. For the week, the DJIA rose 1.3% and reached the 17,000 milestone, while the S&P500 added 1.2% and the Nasdaq surged 2%.

- The June jobs report was much, much stronger than expected, with both the nonfarm (+288K) and private payrolls (+262K) figures crushing expectations, and the April nonfarm payrolls were revised up to 304K from 282K. Unemployment dropped to 6.1% without any further deterioration in the labor force participation rate. After the data, Goldman Sachs now sees a risk of rate hikes in late 2015, but refrained from formally changing their standing guidance for hikes starting in Q1 of 2016. JP Morgan pulled forward expectations for rate hikes to Q3 of 2015 from Q4 prior.

- The conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East raged on this week, however WTI and Brent futures fell to three-week lows thanks to silver linings among the geopolitical storm clouds. In Libya, the government reached a deal with rebels to return oil ports and end a blockade, which should release about 500K bbls of capacity that had been on ice for about a year. In Iraq, ISIS rebels christened the territories they held as "the Islamic State" and declared that it was the sacred duty of all Muslims worldwide to obey ISIS leader Abu Baker al-Baghdadi the caliph, or the successor to the Prophet Mohammed. Fighting continued throughout the regions around Baghdad as the US rushed in more drones and hellfire missiles, while ISIS captured key border towns, however there has been little impact on Iraq oil exports. The ceasefire between Ukraine and pro-Russia rebels in the eastern part of the country expired late Monday and Kiev launched an aggressive offensive against rebel-held towns and made rapid progress. France, Germany and Russia said they had reached a deal to set up fresh talks for another ceasefire, which could arrive as soon as Saturday.

- General Motors announced another six safety recalls this week, covering 7.6 million vehicles. The additional recalls brought GM's total recalls this year to 29 million units, a number greater than the company's combined US sales for 2005 to 2013. In addition, Ken Feinberg outlined the terms of GM's compensation program for customers hurt in accidents caused by faulty ignition switches. The company will pay anyone - drivers, passengers or pedestrians - who proves they were injured in a crash tied to the faulty switches and the fund will have no monetary cap.

- Total US June auto sales rose 1.2% to 1.4 million units, pushing the annualized selling rate to 16.98 million, its highest pace since July 2006. GM sold 267.5K units, up 1% y/y, beating expectations for a roughly 6% decline in sales. Meanwhile Ford's sales fell 6%, right in line with expectations, and truck sales fell at an even steeper rate. Nissan and Toyota saw good sales gains, while Honda's sales fell 5.8% y/y.

- In the first four days of trading, shares of camera-on-a-stick company GoPro doubled from the IPO price of $24. Wednesday saw the stock bounce lower, with shares dropping 14%. The reversal has been partially ascribed to short sellers entering in force. One analyst said the cost of borrowing GoPro shares has become one of the highest on the market.

- JPMorgan CEO Dimon disclosed this week that he has throat cancer, albeit a very mild and highly treatable form of the disease. Dimon said he plans to start treatment shortly and expects to continue working during his treatment and claimed his prognosis is excellent.

- The first reading of Eurozone June CPI saw the headline figure stalled at four-year lows of 0.5%, although the core figure ticked slightly higher, to 0.8% from May's 0.7%. Last week, preliminary German June CPI had risen to 1.0%, raising hopes of a better showing. The inflation data hardly altered expectations for no ECB action at the decision on Thursday, and the only announcement of note at the meeting was that the ECB would shift to a six-week meeting schedule and begin publishing meeting minutes, effective in January 2015. EUR/USD tested 1.3700 on Monday and Tuesday and then fell gradually in the lead-up to the June US jobs report. On Thursday morning, EUR/USD tested below 1.3600 on the good jobs data.

- The Bank of Japan's Q2 Tankan survey showed large manufacturing fell for the first time in six quarters thanks to the consumption-tax related slowdown in economy. The industrial CAPEX forecast for FY14/15 surprised to the upside however, rising 7.4% on composite basis and 12% for manufacturing. The labor earnings survey saw base wages rise 0.2%, the first increase in over two years, but real wages (ex-inflation) registered their largest decline since Dec 2009. Meanwhile, the Japanese Business Federation (Keidanren) said pay at large Japanese companies rose 2.3% following spring negotiations, the biggest increase in 15 years.

- China's official manufacturing PMI hit a six-month high, meeting consensus at 51.0. Among the more notable components, New Exports returned to expansion of 50.3 v 49.3 m/m and Employment rose to 48.6 from 48.2. HSBC final PMI remained in expansion as anticipated by recovery in the Flash data, coming in at 50.7 v 50.8 initial estimate. HSBC chief China economist said the latest figure "confirms the trend of stronger demand and faster de-stocking", but also noting "there are still downside risks from a slowdown in the property market, which will continue to put pressure on growth in the second half of the year."

TradeTheNews

July 03 2014

Quiet half-day, slightly profitable. Have a great long weekend, happy 4th of July!


Session Time: Thu Jul 03 00:00:00 2014
[08:49] {dino} gm 3i
01[08:50] {@Threei}  mornig dino
[08:51] {nemo} news on petm
01[08:52] {@Threei}  PETM Jana Partners discloses 9.9% stake; intends to talk with management about pursuing a sale - 13D filing
[09:00] {RonS} gm...dino thought you were off to visit a hurricane...
01[09:01] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:01] {RonS} petm biting 16 mil sh short
01[09:03] {@Threei}  [08:52] {@Threei} PETM Jana Partners discloses 9.9% stake; intends to talk with management about pursuing a sale - 13D filing
[09:03] {dino} heading out on saturday, back next friday night
[09:04] {dino} you guys get a week off from me, enjoy
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .80 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
[09:32] {nemo} whoa
01[09:32] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:32] {@Threei}  nice teleportation
[09:33] {ese} good morning
01[09:33] {@Threei}  ese :)
[09:33] {ese} hey vad.....just looking at your email
01[09:33] {@Threei}  got my e-mail?
[09:33] {nemo} our token Marxist
01[09:34] {@Threei}  ok :)
[09:34] {ese} and proud of it
[09:34] {nemo} may you end up living in the Soviet Union redux
[09:34] {RonS} ese 1 pm edt close today...
[09:34] {ese} somebody has to play the devils advocate.......
[09:35] {ese} tks Ron
01[09:35] {@Threei}  his particular one has a nicest beach next stret, nemo :)
[09:35] {nemo} unless you knew people who lived under it then you'd never think that way
[09:36] {ese} not sure where i'm getting this rap from but I can take it
[09:36] {nemo} You wouldn't even be allowed to play much of the music you do
01[09:37] {@Threei}  RGDO... sheesh
01[09:38] {@Threei}  - RGDO -53.4% (paused enrollment in clinical trial)
[09:38] {dino} sfly smr s .75 stop .01
01[09:43] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .60 break
01[09:44] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[09:44] {@Threei}  (US) Preview: Jun ISM Non-Manufacturing expected at 10:00 ET
01[09:47] {@Threei}  no worky
[09:48] {RonS} took sfly s .95 to .20 +.75 thanks dino
01[09:48] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .65 break
[09:48] {RonS} too soon, nuts...
01[09:49] {@Threei}  If holds  .58
[09:49] {nemo} 48.50 area ron
01[09:49] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:54] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .05 break
[09:54] {dino} ron, gj, yw
01[09:54] {@Threei}  If holds  .95
01[09:55] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:59] {@Threei}  numbers are coming
01[09:59] {@Threei}  *(US) JUN ISM NON-MANUFACTURING COMPOSITE: 56.0 V 56.3E
01[10:00] {@Threei} Short Setup: DAL  .60 break
01[10:00] {@Threei}  If holds  .67
01[10:01] {@Threei}  09:47 [P] Hearing vague chatter activist investor is looking to get involved with Pandora
[10:02] {RonS} and the difference between vague and non-vague is?
01[10:03] {@Threei}  the difference is vague
[10:03] {RonS} lol
[10:03] {dino} the non?
01[10:03] {@Threei}  lol
[10:04] {RonS} thinking that was the best for you to date 3i...maybe there is hope...  :)
[10:05] {dino} sfly to .21
01[10:05] {@Threei}  I am trying Ron, really trying
01[10:06] {@Threei}  taking lessons, practicing
01[10:06] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  41 break
01[10:06] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
[10:06] {dino} pdi drop
01[10:08] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:09] {dino} cov sfly .25, +.50
01[10:17] {@Threei}  Russian hackers have launched unprecedented, highly-sophisticated attacks on Western oil and gas companies.
[10:17] {nemo} that story has been out for awhile
[10:17] {nemo} coupla' weeks anyway
[10:18] {nemo} spwr looks short
[10:19] {dino} sfly smr s .00
[10:21] {dino} b/s to .85
[10:22] {dino} cov .80, +.20 sfly
01[10:29] {@Threei}  [BBBY] Olstein Capital: Bed, Bath and Beyond could be a takeover target for private equity, could be worth over $80/shr in such a deal - CNBC
[10:39] {RonS} i hate that store...
01[10:40] {@Threei}  so, you are not in the bidding war?...
[10:41] {RonS} if had the dough would buy them just to fire their merchants
[10:43] {RonS} lol...Court rules against man for gaming Lufthansa out of 35 free meals: http://bloom.bg/1qQG9zX
01[10:45] {@Threei}  is his method described?
[10:46] {RonS} kind of...
01[10:46] {@Threei}  so, this week one trading log view has been gained by googling, wait for it
01[10:46] {@Threei}  "italiyan nuan sex"
01[10:46] {@Threei}  somehow this just has to be nemo's fault
[10:47] {RonS} bot 1 way ticket that gave access to lounge, ate, changed date on ticket, rinse, repeat
01[10:47] {@Threei}  and... "nuan"??
[10:56] {dino} markets are dead, calling it a week, thx all, have a happy independence day. i'm out all next week
01[10:57] {@Threei}  take care dino, have fun
[10:57] {dino} will do
01[11:01] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .85 break
01[11:02] {@Threei}  If holds  .79
01[11:08] {@Threei}  ese, look dcc pls
[11:10] {nemo} sfly looks short
[11:11] {nemo} if it drops .55
[11:11] {nemo} holds .65
[11:14] {nemo} might want to make it drop of .60
[11:15] {nemo} boy skin of teeth
[11:15] {nemo} eye of newt
01[11:15] {@Threei}  fang of vampire
[11:15] {nemo} hair of bantha
[11:15] {RonS} teeth of gingrich
[11:15] {nemo} oh, getting my mythologies mixed up
01[11:15] {@Threei}  lol
[11:17] {nemo} boot stomp 3i
[11:18] {nemo} technically 1:1 but didn't get taken
01[11:19] {@Threei}  tough spread
[11:20] {nemo} now it's getting iffy was tighter
[11:20] {nemo} market gonna' go comatose soon
[11:20] {nemo} that's it
01[11:23] {@Threei}  ese, wake up
[12:16] {RonS} ok, see you guys later, good weekend to all...
01[12:16] {@Threei}  have a great weekend ron
01[12:23] {@Threei}  ok guys, have a great long weekend
01[12:23] {@Threei}  see you Monday
01[12:23] {@Threei}  ese, see dcc
[12:27] {nemo} o.k. that's enough fun for the week...hasta semana

July-August 2014 Outlook: All in One Rhythm

TradeTheNews.com  July-August 2014 Outlook: All in One Rhythm

With headline fatigue setting in over the Ukraine crisis, and the mounting Iraqi upheaval stirring concerns about an all-out sectarian war in the Middle East, the world is seeking a temporary diversion from the World Cup. The quadrennial event provides an apt metaphor for the next few months in the markets - many countries have high hopes for a strong showing, things may get a bit contentious as national interests collide, and there will be a few upsets, but in the end we can only watch and wait for the scores to come in. To coopt the 2014 World Cup slogan, economic leaders seem to be "all in one rhythm", pausing for more data before making their next moves. Let's get to the matchups.

US vs Expectations

The initial three months of 2014 were decidedly disappointing for the US economy, as the final tally on Q1 GDP came in at -2.9%, even worse than expected, due to horrendous winter weather. Markets largely ignored those temporary factors as did the Fed, which has continued to steadily taper its QE program on the expectation and recent materialization of better jobs and growth data.

After the decidedly slow start to the year, monthly non-farm payrolls in the first five months are now averaging over 200 thousand new jobs, enough to keep unemployment on a downward trajectory. The next reading comes on July 3, an unusual Thursday release of the jobs data because of the Independence Day holiday. Forecasts are for another payroll report in line with the average, though more breakout numbers like the nearly 300 thousand jobs gained in April are not out of the question and could help ease the Fed transition into its next policy phase.

Chair Yellen and other senior Fed officials have already begun to lay the groundwork for next year when they are likely to move rates away from near-zero. To get people accustomed to the idea, Yellen has started the discussion of future rate hikes, though stressing that rate policy will be entirely data dependent. At her last press conference she also brushed off some recent higher CPI data as "noise", insisting that inflation is developing within Fed expectations. This seems to indicate the Chair is pleased with market reckoning of the first rate hike coming around mid-2015, but this outlook could be toppled by more hot inflation data (due out toward the middle of each month).

With stronger inflation in view, Fed hawks are positing the scenario that the recovery will kick into high gear and unemployment will fall to normal levels sooner rather than later. Philadelphia Fed chief Plosser recently expressed discomfort with rates still near zero while inflation is rebounding toward the 2% target. The more moderate St. Louis Fed President Bullard has worried out loud that the Fed may get behind the curve if joblessness falls faster than expected, and set his personal forecast for the first rate hike in early 2015 (though still data dependent). Meanwhile the Richmond Fed's Lacker has proposed the Fed should starting trimming back reinvestment of balance sheet holdings before looking at raising rates, so discussion of that may come into vogue as the policy agenda for normalization gels. Representing the dovish team, San Francisco Fed President Williams has suggested that the most recent data is consistent with the first rate hike coming in the latter half of next year.

On the US policy scoreboard, so far it is QE 3, and fiscal policy nil. The grand fiscal bargain that was often speculated about in the last few years now seems impossible. Congress and the Administration are so at odds that the President has resorted to small scale policy tweaks through executive orders on things like the minimum wage for federal contractors and immigration policy. The unprecedented primary loss of House Republican majority leader Cantor to a poorly funded Tea Party newcomer who ran to Cantor's right portends more intense gridlock in Congress. Another two dozen state primaries will be conducted over the next two months, and if the GOP fringe experiences a resurgence headed into the November mid-term elections, Tea Party purists in the next Congress may choose to ignore the political lessons of 2013 government shutdown.

Europe vs Deflation

As in the US, the next two months are expected to be a wait and see period for Europe. The biggest monetary policy move of recent months was the ECB's new package of negative rates and targeted LTROs to spur economic growth and more lending. The IMF and other observers applauded the move but immediately urged the ECB to follow up with a full on quantitative easing scheme. The ECB has acknowledged that is an option in its playbook, but central bank President Draghi has made it clear that he wants to wait some time to gauge the impact of the just launched program before unloading another monetary volley.

There is much to consider. Though central bank officials insist there is almost no chance of deflation taking hold in the euro zone, the latest monthly CPI estimate matched a 4-year low of 0.5%, and in some peripheral countries it's even lower. If the next few inflation readings drift downward from this already very low level, the ECB may be forced into more action, with some reports saying it could start by cutting the key deposit rate another 15 basis points to -0.25% to give banks even more incentive to lend.

Ultimately, if circumstances don't press them into action, reports say ECB officials would prefer to take six to nine months to judge whether the new package is creating the desired behavior. The ECB took its time considering negative rates, given that charging banks to sit on money could have unintended consequences, and now that its committed to the policy, it will need time to see if banks are following the play as it was drawn up. There is some concern that bankers may undermine the new measures because they are reluctant to boost lending in the next few as their balance sheets are under the heavy scrutiny of the asset quality review (AQR).

Central bank watchers have praised Draghi for his proactive style, but only time will tell if this latest in a series of bold policy strikes will win him the central bank equivalent of the Golden Boot or turn out to be an 'own goal' rife with unintended consequences. Draghi's skills as a leader will be put to the test again if conditions warrant a full quantitative easing program, as it will be very challenging to get his whole team to reach agreement on the details of a QE program that would work convincingly across a diverse and still economically fragmented monetary zone.

In the UK, monetary policy also remains data dependent, but the BOE could soon find itself breaking away from its peers to become the first major western central bank to start raising rates. A year long run of strong growth data has brought UK manufacturing readings to 16-month highs and the construction PMI to 14 straight months of expansion. The BOE has thus far ignored calls to use tighter monetary policy to cool of the nation's booming housing market, instead in June opting to use other measures to curb the real estate market.

In an annual economic address in mid-June, BOE Governor Carney warned that UK rates could rise sooner than some investors expect. Current expectations are for the rate to come off the 320-year low of 0.5% during the first quarter of 2015. Other MPC members have also said data could drive an earlier start to the tightening campaign, perhaps before the end of this year.

China vs Corruption

China is also in a relatively quiet period, managing to stick to its growth target without having to resort to any significant new stimulus programs. Targeted mini-stimulus measures orchestrated by policymakers have started to gain some traction, helping restore manufacturing PMI readings to their best level in six months. The central bank remains insistent that this targeted stimulus aimed at reviving credit for smaller enterprises and the rural economy is not a sign of any change in its "prudent" monetary policy stance.

Instead, the biggest policy shift out of Beijing this year may be its unprecedented effort to weed out poor management and corruption, which have become a perverted institution much liking flopping in football. To combat this entrenched bad behavior the government is implementing a number of new policies. This year China has allowed a handful of financial and property development firms to default, a first for the country that historically swept failed firms under the rug with bailouts that made investors whole but also less prudent about finding good investments. In May regulators also asked that commercial banks perform stress tests as part of a larger effort to control worsening bad loan ratios amid a weakening investment environment. Officials have also shown a willingness to make some foreign firms squirm by launching investigations into bribery allegations at their Chinese units.

To show just how serious it is about anti-corruption efforts, the Communist Party is handing out red cards to bad actors within its own ranks. State media has reported that a number of high level officials have been expelled from the party on charges of taking bribes, including Li Dongsheng, former vice minister of public security, Jiang Jiemin, former head of the state asset regulator, and Wang Yongchun, former deputy head of China National Petroleum Company. Also ousted on allegations of graft was General Xu Caihou, the former vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, who now holds the dubious distinction of being the most senior former Politburo member to be formally expelled from the Communist Party.

The crackdown on corruption and faulty business practices is not without costs. For example, the Chinese property sector is showing more signs of slowing in the face of the new policy landscape. Real estate data will be closely watched after May housing numbers showed prices falling in fully half of the survey cities, with the average price down overall for the first time in two years. The cleanup effort has also extended to blowing the whistle on shaky business loans backed by questionable commodity collateral. The unwinding of these financing deals is thought to have contributed to a spike in the gold and silver prices in late June, and more pressure from the Beijing government could subject the metals market to further turmoil. Further exacerbating the situation are the findings of the National Audit Office, which admitted that spot checks at 25 precious metals trading firms in China uncovered $15B in loans backed by falsified gold trades, which may only be the tip of the iceberg. If the anti-corruption campaign continues full tilt it could be a near-term drag on the Chinese economy as participants adjust to the new way of doing business. In the longer run, though real reforms could bolster the economy and attract new waves of foreign investment.

Japan vs Stagnation

In neighboring Japan, Prime Minister Abe is on the offensive, trying to develop an attack that can break away from decades of stagnation and entrenched deflation. So far the Abenomics experiment has shown promise. For the last two months CPI readings show inflation has risen at its fastest annual rate in decades. This buys more time for the government to watch how the economy reacts to the sales tax increase imposed in April (which did contribute to the higher May CPI reading). In late June, Mr. Abe also formally unveiled his "3rd arrow", announcing plans to cut the corporate tax rate from current 35% or more to below 30% over the next few years, enact pension fund management reforms to broaden their investment portfolios, and revise the tax system with the intention of increasing the number of women in a dwindling workforce stricken by an aging population.

Market participants aren't convinced yet. The Nikkei took a rocket ride during the honeymoon phase of Abenomics last year, but the index has been range bound in 2014, and the Yen has leveled off at a little bit above 100 to the dollar. Traders will be watching the CPI and retail sales data for Japan that come out together late each month and rooting for a passable preliminary Q2 GDP number on August 11, after a better than expected growth reading in Q1. For its part, the Bank of Japan has stated that the impact of the sales tax hike has been within expectations and it has maintained its formal economic assessment for eleven straight meetings.

The Middle East vs Itself

The biggest current threat to the status quo of the markets may be the risk of a spike in energy prices, driven by the Middle East's proclivity for implosion. A month ago the concern was that Russia could cut off Europe from its natural gas supply over sanctions imposed after the annexation of Crimea. Now as the Ukraine crisis appears to be steering toward a resolution, Iraq has taken its place as the focal point for geopolitical concern. The fighting in Iraq, the world's second largest oil producer, threatens to play havoc with the energy markets if the ISIS insurgents capture or disrupt key oil production facilities. After declaring a swath of central Iraq a new caliphate, the Sunni militants aim appears to be spreading their sectarian conflict across international borders. A full scale civil war in Iraq like the one that has ravaged Syria could send oil prices up $20/barrel or more, slamming the brakes on the global economic recovery just as it has the makings of becoming self-sustaining. The inept and unpopular President of Iraq, Maliki, has pledged he will strive to create a more inclusive government as the new Parliament starts July 1, but it is still as yet unclear if any government under Mr. Maliki will be effective in restoring order.

Complicating matters, Mr. Maliki has been accepting military assistance from the Shia governments of Iran and Syria in the battle against ISIS. Not only does this make the option of military aid less palatable for the US, it could also throw a monkey wrench in the Iran nuclear talks which are at a delicate stage with just weeks to go before July 20, the agreed upon deadline for a deal. On top of that, new hostilities between Hamas and Israel could further inflame the region.

The Knockout Round

We have now reached halftime for 2014, which may be indicative of a lull in the action. Central bankers are assessing what their game plans have achieved in the first half of the year while politicians are preparing for their extensive summer breaks.

The scorecard at the halfway point of the year shows the broad US stock market dribbling to record highs, having posted its sixth straight quarter of gains, shaking off the chilling effects of a nasty winter and geopolitical risks abroad. Equity markets are entering the July earnings season with relatively low expectations after an anemic Q1, generating chances for some upside surprises if the private sector really has turned the corner. Working against it may be the new issues - the IPO market remains hot and crowded, and will culminate with the initial offering of Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba, likely to come in August. The biggest IPO of the year on top of dozens of smaller names going public may temporarily flood the market with too much supply and cause another downdraft in momentum stocks like the one seen earlier this year, as traders take profits and try to get fresh legs from the new issues.

The continued compression in the bond market indicates that doubt remain about the quality of a global recovery being fueled by massive central bank stimulus. With the Fed and BOE starting to ponder exit strategies including when to raise rates, we could also see another bout of the "good news is bad news" mentality in markets as they start to rationalize future rate hikes.

Just as in football, a winning strategy in policy-making can take a long time to develop and may only pay off after a lot of near misses. Economic officials across the globe are now tentatively searching for an opening for their next policy strike: The ECB is waiting to see how its latest stimulus plays out, the Fed and BOE are watching data before deciding on rate policy changes next year, Japan is still assessing the impact of its first tax increase, and China is holding off on bigger stimulus plans as it focuses on purging corruption. Though some readings in the months ahead may jostle central bankers, they seem to have the best control of the monetary policy ball since the kickoff of the financial crisis, so if improving data trends continue they may find a path toward normalization, achieving their ultimate GOOOOOOOOAAAL!


CALENDAR (based on Eastern Time Zone)
JULY
1 (Tues): Euro Zone Unemployment; US ISM Manufacturing
2: UK Construction PMI; China Non-manufacturing PMI
3: Various European Services PMI readings; ECB policy decision and press conference; US Payrolls and Unemployment; US Trade Balance; US ISM Non-Manufacturing
4: German Factory Orders; 4th of July holiday, US markets closed

7: China CPI and PPI
8: China Trade Balance; China Industrial Production; Various European trade balance data
9: FOMC Minutes; BOJ policy decision
10: BOE policy decision
11: Preliminary U of M Consumer Sentiment

14: Euro Zone Industrial Production
15: UK CPI; German ZEW Sentiment; US Advance Retail Sales
16: UK Unemployment; US PPI; US Industrial Production
17: US Housing Starts and Building Permits; Philly Fed Index
18:

21:
22: US Existing Home Sales; US CPI
23: China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
24: Various European PMI readings; US New Home Sales
25: German Ifo Business Sentiment; UK Q2 GDP; US Durable Goods Orders

28: US Pending Home Sales; Tokyo CPI; Japan Retail Sales; Japan
29: US Consumer Confidence
30: US Q2 Advance GDP; FOMC policy decision
31: Euro Zone Unemployment; Euro Zone Flash CPI; China Manufacturing PMI
1: US Payrolls and Unemployment
AUGUST
4: UK Construction PMI
5: Various European Services PMI readings; US ISM Non-Manufacturing

6: German Factory Orders; US Trade Balance; BOJ policy decision
7: BOE policy decision; ECB policy decision and press conference; China CPI and PPI
8: China Trade Balance; China Industrial Production; Various European trade balance data

11: Japan preliminary Q2 GDP
12: German ZEW Sentiment;
13: UK Unemployment; BOE Inflation Report; US Advance Retail Sales
14: EU preliminary Q2 GDP; EU CPI
15: US PPI; US Industrial Production; Preliminary U of M Consumer Sentiment

18:
19: UK CPI; US Housing Starts and Building Permits; US CPI
20: FOMC minutes
21: US Existing Home Sales; Philly Fed Index
22:

24 (Sun): China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
25: Various European PMI readings; German Ifo Business Sentiment; US New Home Sales; Jackson Hole Symposium starts
26: US Durable Goods Orders; US Consumer Confidence
27: Tokyo CPI; Japan Retail Sales
28: US Q2 Prelim GDP (2nd reading); US Pending Home Sales
29: UK Q2 GDP (2nd reading); Euro Zone Unemployment; Euro Zone Flash CPI

31: China Manufacturing PMI
SEPTEMBER
1: Various European Manufacturing PMIs; US ISM Manufacturing
2: UK Construction PMI; China Non-manufacturing PMI
3: US ISM Non-manufacturing PMI
4: BOE policy decision; ECB policy decision and press conference; US Trade Balance; BOJ Minutes
5: US Payrolls and Unemployment

TradeTheNews

July 02 2014

Catch of the Day, beautiful double bottom on TWTR, right from 111 Trades page. Get it now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  

Session Time: Wed Jul 02 00:00:00 2014
[08:45] {dino} gm
01[08:45] {@Threei}  dino :)
01[08:56] {@Threei}  08:15 *(US) JUN ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +281K V +205KE (largest increase since Nov 2012)
[09:03] {nemo} don't any of you have a life?
01[09:03] {@Threei}  what's that?
[09:03] {nemo} I was kinda' asking because I don't know
[09:03] {dino} never sleep well nemo, always up early
[09:04] {nemo} Sleep?  what is that?
01[09:04] {@Threei}  this made my evening yesterday:
01[09:04] {@Threei}  Yong I was. Money I needed. https://fbcdn-sphotos-h-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xap1/t1.0-9/10514476_1495174477384269_5316772685024078941_n.jpg
[09:04] {nemo} gpro shortable today
[09:04] {dino} sfly setting up for short
[09:04] {nemo} hehehehehe
[09:08] {nemo} wow, Tiger Direct has a $69 Western Digital 2TB hard drive
[09:14] {troub} good morning you all
01[09:14] {@Threei}  troub :)
[09:14] {nemo} you do that on purpose don't you...
01[09:14] {@Threei}  I'll wait till they sell solid state for that price
01[09:15] {@Threei}  unless my current dies on me of course
[09:15] {nemo} it's just somewhat amazing how much storage you can get for so little
01[09:15] {@Threei}  true
01[09:16] {@Threei}  so, looking at the market state, VIX etc...
01[09:16] {@Threei}  as we see, not the best time for day trading, but rather preparation for a great time
[09:16] {nemo} tomorrow morning should be interesting
01[09:16] {@Threei}  we always do the best in bear market and the worst in slow low volume climb
01[09:17] {@Threei}  with VIX being at all time low, it's only a matter of time
[09:17] {dino} depending on todays, i may blow tomorrow off. also, on vacation next week, so have fun w/o me
01[09:17] {@Threei}  tomorrow is a short day, right?
[09:17] {dino} yes 1 pm
[09:18] {dino} not allowed over 3 days banks closed
01[09:18] {@Threei}  IMO, worth 1-2 hoirs of trading in the morning, after that it's dead
[09:20] {dino} sfly filled that march gap up
[09:21] {RonS} gm...Curtis Mayfield stock...superfly
[09:21] {nemo} gag
01[09:21] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:22] {dino} dal drop
[09:22] {RonS} hearing others under pressure too
[09:22] {dino} ual yeah
[09:23] {RonS} stem could be a runner...already +11%
01[09:25] {@Threei}  STEM Brinson Patrick Initiates STEM with Market Outperform, price target: $7
01[09:26] {@Threei}  USU
[09:26] {nemo} we should look for high short interest stocks in a low volatility environment.  Those are the stocks receiving upgrades of late
01[09:26] {@Threei}  USLE
01[09:26] {@Threei}  ISLE
01[09:26] {@Threei}  CAMP
01[09:26] {@Threei}  list for you volatility lovers
01[09:27] {@Threei}  CAMP lowered guidance
01[09:27] {@Threei}  NLS, no news
[09:28] {cosmo} ah...four letter stocks...just like old times
[09:28] {dino} anet still rising
01[09:31] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .65 break
01[09:31] {@Threei}  lol
01[09:31] {@Threei}  1:1  
01[09:31] {@Threei}  good luck getting it
[09:31] {dino} dal gap fill
01[09:33] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .20 break
01[09:33] {@Threei}  If holds  .10 
01[09:35] {@Threei}  change to .10 break
01[09:35] {@Threei}  If holds  68 
01[09:35] {@Threei}  two-sided
01[09:37] {@Threei}  1:1  
[09:38] {dino} sfly smr s .57
01[09:41] {@Threei} Short Setup: WMT  .70 break
01[09:41] {@Threei}  If holds  .75 
01[09:41] {@Threei}  Invalidated  
[09:42] {dino} sfly to .07
[09:44] {dino} to .845
[09:45] {dino} cov .79 sfly, +.78
[09:45] {RonS} gj
[09:45] {dino} ty
[09:45] {nemo} first frickin' day gpro is shortable ALREADY on the uptick rule
[09:45] {RonS} Jimmy Carter moving up by default. RT @politico: Poll: Obama worst prez since WWII http://politi.co/1mJtycS
[09:45] {nemo} can't make this shit up
[09:45] {dino} roflol
01[09:46] {@Threei}  lol
[09:46] {nemo} not like there are great barriers to entry in that biz
01[09:46] {@Threei} Short Setup: WMT  .80 break
01[09:46] {@Threei}  If holds  .90 
[09:49] {nemo} Xone dino, opened at pivot, probably shortable there
[09:51] {dino} watching it
01[09:55] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .90 break
01[09:55] {@Threei}  If holds  .80 
01[10:00] {@Threei}  1:1  
01[10:01] {@Threei}  ok W{T
01[10:01] {@Threei}  die
01[10:01] {@Threei}  WMT
01[10:03] {@Threei}  1:1  WMT 
[10:04] {dino} well its a good day, just sold one of my condos in nc
01[10:05] {@Threei}  :)
[10:20] {dino} .
01[10:21] {@Threei}  [NQ] Ticking higher on rumor that its independent auditor may sign off on its financials - NQ has been working with its auditor and conducting its own internal audit in response to allegations from Muddy Waters earlier this year.
[10:24] {nemo} P running...and not into the toilet (homage to ron)
01[10:25] {@Threei}  lol
[10:25] {nemo} or into Ron's Depends
[10:28] {dino} lol
01[10:28] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .35 break
01[10:28] {@Threei}  If holds  .45 
01[10:33] {@Threei}  stop to .41
01[10:42] {@Threei}  meh
01[10:42] {@Threei}  1 cent from 1:1
[10:45] {dino} sfly smr s .90 jumpy
01[10:45] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  68 break
01[10:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .90 
01[10:53] {@Threei}  Invalidated  
01[10:58] {@Threei} Long Setup:  C  .05 break
01[10:58] {@Threei}  If holds  .95 
[11:00] {RonS} what?   Yellen: Acceleration Of Risk-Taking Concerns Could Require More Robust Macroprudential Response
01[11:02] {@Threei}  I was always a sztrong supporter of macroprudentialism
01[11:04] {@Threei}  this is one of the most nucleorogical forms of neurooscillating shamanism
01[11:04] {@Threei}  which has my robust respect
01[11:05] {@Threei}  especially when coupled with unequivocal defenestration
[11:05] {nemo} or intellectual onanism
01[11:05] {@Threei}  or that
[11:06] {nemo} that opposable thumb thing again
01[11:06] {@Threei}  (US) Fed Chair Yellen: monetary policy faces limitations and may not be the best tool to ensure financial stability - IMF lecture - Calls for macroprudential tools to be used to promote financial stability - low interest rates do have the potential to increase the incentives and reach for yield - have seen some pockets of risk taking across the financial system - dont see a need to shift monetary policy away from seeking price stability and maximum employment - increasing rates to promote financial stability would only serve to increase volatility in the employment and inflation sectors of the economy
01[11:06] {@Threei}  let's scratch C
01[11:07] {@Threei}  this speech upset the cart
[11:08] {dino} instead of trying to be celebrities, they need to shut the f up
01[11:09] {@Threei}  out .04
01[11:09] {@Threei}  Merkel warns Russia on sanctions ahead of Berlin talks on Ukraine
01[11:09] {@Threei}  Putin: this is what, 168th warning? I can't take it anymore
[11:10] {dino} putin;"stop teasing me"
01[11:11] {@Threei}  lol
01[11:11] {@Threei}  From one of russian forums, translating on the fly:
01[11:12] {@Threei}  "I don't know what we are waiting for, why are we not hitting USA with nuclear bombs? If we take them out, Ukraine will surrender at once"
[11:13] {dino} cov sfly .46, +.44
01[11:16] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .25 break
01[11:17] {@Threei}  If holds  .15 
[11:18] {dino} sfly hl s .22
[11:21] {dino} 07 red
[11:30] {dino} sfly b/s is .52
[11:31] {dino} stopped
[11:33] {dino} scanners slowed down
06[11:36] * @Threei kicks TWTR in the rear
[11:42] {nemo} now sfly hvaing trouble with vwap
[11:46] {dino} thru it
01[11:55] {@Threei}  TWTR, everyone exited at 1:3?
[11:56] {dino} gj
01[11:56] {@Threei}  ty
[11:57] {goinshort} got it- thanks!
01[11:57] {@Threei}  :)
01[11:57] {@Threei}  beautiful double bottom, right from 111 Trades page
[11:58] {dino} lorl smr s .60
[12:02] {dino} cov lorl 75.40, +1.20
[12:07] {troub} excellent dino
01[12:07] {@Threei}  frikin C worked after all
[12:07] {dino} ty troub
[12:10] {dino} king spike
[12:12] {dino} sfly l/h l/l
[12:13] {dino} .20 break s smr
[12:17] {dino} maybe just a wide channel
[12:25] {nemo} sfly more likely to sell off tomorrow...who wants to carry a rumor over a three day weekend
[12:26] {dino} surprised its holding up 5+ now, these usually jump 4 or 5 them come back to only 1 or 2 up
[12:48] {troub} .
01[12:57] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .60 break
01[12:57] {@Threei}  If holds  .55 
01[13:10] {@Threei}  Fresh Russia sanctions on hold as European foreign ministers meet in Berlin
01[13:11] {@Threei}  hmmm... I don't think they are fresh still
[13:12] {dino} sfly smr s .89
[13:19] {nemo} we're starting to get a lot of rumor buying and upgrades on high short interest stock
[13:19] {dino} sign of top
[13:20] {nemo} yes, or in such a low volatility environment, generating some volatility
[13:20] {nemo} algo's gotta' pay the bills you know
[13:20] {dino} so do i
01[13:21] {@Threei}  good algos would pay our bills too
[13:22] {nemo} says the man who just sold a condo
[13:24] {dino} just a small part of the plan nemo
[13:25] {nemo} next thing you know we'll see a news article about you next to a picture of Hillary talking poor mouth
[13:25] {nemo} sorry dino, no Les
[13:25] {dino} lol
[13:26] {nemo} setup looks good here, but that high becons
[13:26] {nemo} beckons
[13:26] {dino} b/s at .21
[13:33] {nemo} gpro letting go
[13:34] {dino} sfly stop
01[13:34] {@Threei}  does GPRO record the drop?
06[13:34] * @Threei slants at Ron
[13:35] {RonS} but that was funny...
[13:36] {nemo} yeah, like one of those wing suit flyers
[13:38] {nemo} yeah, sfly gonna test the high
[13:40] {dino} ns
[13:40] {nemo} wow gpro
[13:41] {nemo} look at the hft activity on gpro
[13:41] {nemo} holy shit
[13:42] {nemo} that frickin' LII is moving like a pornstar's vibrator
[13:42] {nemo} was that too extreme?
[13:42] {nemo} spwr looks short
[13:42] {RonS} knew the pros were involved when fidelity had no borrow
[13:42] {dino} lol
[13:43] {nemo} alot of people have no borrow on it
[13:43] {dino} none here
[13:43] {nemo} .45 break onf spwr. oops
[13:43] {nemo} stop above .50
[13:45] {RonS} fb selling on livewire purchase...
[13:46] {RonS} fb UK investigation...
[13:46] {RonS} liverail sorry
[13:51] {nemo} uno:uno
[13:51] {nemo} eins:eins
[13:51] {nemo} might be a quick hasta la vista
[13:52] {nemo} oh, indexes testing support
[13:52] {RonS} gwph pulp again
[13:53] {nemo} yeah, buddy of mine swing short on that one
[13:53] {dino} ballsy
[13:53] {nemo} yeah, he is
[13:54] {dino} agree w/it, but i'd do it thru options
[13:55] {nemo} that spwr.45 level
[13:55] {nemo} should probably hold to original .50 stop
[13:56] {dino} sfly hod, nce call nemo
[13:56] {nemo} probably melt-up time in the indexes
[13:57] {nemo} it just kept creeping
[13:58] {dino} not acting normally for company that hires investment bank, should drop $4 bucks
[13:58] {nemo} sob
[13:58] {nemo} look at that
[13:58] {dino} lol, thers .50
[13:58] {nemo} fornicate me
[13:58] {dino} theres
[13:58] {nemo} yeah, get in on that
[13:58] {dino} .00 break, my trigger
[13:59] {nemo} yeah and they ticked you
[13:59] {nemo} but then you'd still have to get shares
[13:59] {nemo} GFL
[13:59] {dino} happens alot last 45 days
[13:59] {nemo} lower volume, algo's right there short stepping new highs and lows inside of resting orders
[14:00] {RonS} jazz
[14:00] {nemo} singing the blues you didn't get in long Ron
[14:00] {nemo} hehehehehehehe
[14:01] {nemo} o.k. .50 confirmed stop in spwr
[14:08] {nemo} sheesh, everything is moving like an arthritic sloth
[14:09] {dino} yeah, getting to the point that i should just go play some golf
[14:09] {dino} out of here at 3 pm
[14:09] {nemo} 3-4 might have movement, you should have played 9 at lunch
[14:10] {dino} i like to tip a few beers while playing, no way i could get away from 19th hole in time for last hour
[14:10] {nemo} mmmhhhh...always thought of you as Mr. Discipline.  The kinda' guy that irons his underwear
[14:10] {dino} psix odd again today, been bouncing 68.80s-69.40s for hours, very thin
[14:11] {dino} work hard play hard 
[14:12] {nemo} frickin spwr
[14:12] {nemo} spy 32.7 mil
[14:12] {nemo} I play hard, play harder, take alka seltzer
[14:12] {dino} lol
[14:13] {nemo} vicodin helps too
01[14:13] {@Threei}  I am lost
01[14:13] {@Threei}  where is vodka in that?
[14:13] {dino} no drugs for me, tequila takes that place
[14:13] {nemo} alcohol is a drug
[14:13] {nemo} go iron your boxers will ya'
[14:13] {dino} nah
[14:14] {dino} sfly going to drop
[14:14] {nemo} I like to crease the center of the quadriceps and the rear of the biceps femoras
[14:15] {nemo} damn, spwr gonna' rinse me after 1:1
01[14:15] {@Threei}  word on the street, nemo, is: dino doesn't iron his underwear but his bootlaces are whole other matter - no coming out of the house without ironing those
[14:15] {nemo} it's a frickin' communist conspiracy
[14:15] {nemo} that's a bit extreme
[14:15] {dino} since trading from home, don't think i've used an iron
[14:15] {nemo} well to each his own
[14:16] {nemo} yeah, probably barely get dressed
[14:16] {nemo} shaving and showering become optional
[14:17] {nemo} All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.  All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.  All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.  All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.  All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.  All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.  All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.  All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.  All work and no play makes Jack 
[14:17] {nemo} a dull boy.  All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.  All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.  All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.  All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.  All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.  All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.  All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.  All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.  All work and no 
[14:17] {nemo} play makes Jack a dull boy.  
[14:17] {nemo} Here's Johnnny!!!!
[14:18] {dino} red rum
[14:18] {nemo} But I don't want to be Mr. Pink!
[14:18] {nemo} "You alright?"  "I'm far from alright."  "...we're gonna' get medieval on his ass..."
[14:19] {nemo} "Stuck in the middle with you...."
01[14:20] {@Threei}  someone give nemo an iron
[14:21] {dino} "you tell him i'm coming, and hell's coming with me"
[14:21] {nemo} "We are the crack suicide squad of the People's front of Jedea!"
[14:21] {nemo} I'll be your huckleberry
[14:21] {nemo} "Judea"
01[14:21] {@Threei}  I am scared to think what kind of crackheads today's log will attract
[14:21] {dino} "thats ok, i got one gun for each of you"
[14:22] {nemo} "Don't do it..."
[14:26] {nemo} spwr again
[14:27] {nemo}  Why Johnny Ringo, you look like somebody just walked over your grave.
[14:27] {dino} i beg to differ, we started a fight we never finished
[14:27] {nemo} O.k. lunger
[14:28] {dino} i ain't got the words
[14:29] {nemo} Poor soul. You were just too high-strung.
[14:29] {nemo}  I'm afraid the strain was more than he could bear. Oh, I wasn't quite as sick as I made out.
[14:29] {dino} he walks on water
[14:29] {nemo} he's down there walking on water
[14:29] {dino} somebody get that dog outta here
[14:30] {dino} i was just funnin'. i wasn't
[14:30] {nemo} I wasn't. And this time...t's legal.
[14:31] {nemo} this time spwr going
[14:33] {nemo} I'm gonna' have to watch that again tonight
[14:33] {dino} "het ray, where do those stairs go?"  "up"
[14:33] {dino} hey
[14:33] {nemo} sorry, dont remember that one
[14:33] {dino} ghost busters
[14:34] {nemo} oh sheesh, THOSE braincells rotted a long time ago
[14:34] {dino} went off topic there
[14:34] {nemo} a tad
[14:34] {dino} dogs and cats living together, in sin
[14:34] {nemo} I think I saw that in Germany actually
[14:35] {dino} think this slow afternoon is more that i can bear
[14:35] {dino} or bare
[14:35] {nemo} melt up might have started
[14:35] {nemo} no, vid cam shots please
[14:35] {nemo} finnies look southward
[14:36] {nemo} too much for troub
[14:36] {nemo} did we stray from the path of decency?
01[14:36] {@Threei}  Ping timeout
[14:36] {RonS} path of mendacity?
01[14:37] {@Threei}  rion overloads my limited vocabulary
01[14:37] {@Threei}  ron
[14:37] {nemo} life is fiction
[14:37] {nemo} at least from a historical point of view
[14:37] {nemo} just ask my girlfriend, I never remember things correctly
[14:37] {dino} life's a game, money's the score, play to win
[14:38] {nemo} that's here dino...some places life is the game
[14:38] {nemo} IWM just been dripping away today
[14:39] {nemo} "a Royale with cheese"
[14:40] {nemo} stop above .45 on spwr
[14:40] {nemo} this could be the low though
[14:40] {nemo} especially if the indexes melt up
01[14:42] {@Threei}  half out TZA
01[14:42] {@Threei}  stop to .59
[14:48] {nemo} stop to .40 spwr
[14:52] {dino} tsla drop
[14:53] {nemo} stop to .36
[14:56] {nemo} stop to .22
[14:56] {nemo} look at that .10 bid
[15:02] {nemo} how come I can't get a dino trade
[15:02] {dino} 'cause you're not dino
[15:03] {nemo} wow, that's profound]
[15:03] {dino} anyway, gotta hop, gn all
[15:03] {nemo} shit
[15:03] {nemo} basically a .50 range in the spy today
[15:03] {dino} sfly on radar for tomorrow
[15:03] {nemo} sfly, gpro, spwr, fslr
[15:07] {RonS} lol...They should put today's tape on loop at Guantanamo
[15:07] {nemo} yeah,saw that
01[15:08] {@Threei}  I think we did pretty good for such narrow day
01[15:08] {@Threei}  although yeah, as we discussed in the morning... can't wait for the market to top out and reverse. That's when real fun begins
[15:11] {troub} your experience says most calls will be shorts or longs?
[15:12] {nemo} when?
[15:12] {RonS} w/ a few in-betweens...
01[15:12] {@Threei}  both, with shorts being safer and more numerous
01[15:12] {@Threei}  longs on bounces, a bit more risky
[15:12] {nemo} trade with the trend, but Vad has a tendency to hit counter trades
[15:13] {nemo} Gawd I miss those limit down openings
[15:14] {nemo} Vad cleans up in anarchy
01[15:14] {@Threei}  love anarchy
01[15:14] {@Threei}  panic
[15:14] {nemo} bring forth the dogs of war!!!!
[15:14] {nemo} He came riding on a pale horse
01[15:27] {@Threei}  stop to .64
01[15:28] {@Threei}  LOL; https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BrjxtdnCcAE3GqA.png:large
01[15:51] {@Threei}  closing last TZA +.10
01[15:52] {@Threei}  thank you all, have a great evening, see you tomorrow

[15:56] {nemo} iwm retraced yesterday