Sept 10 2014

Another nice day with a few strong trades in the morning and couple small stops later on.


Session Start: Tue Sep 09 16:10:26 2014
Session Ident: #discussions
02[16:10] * Attempting to rejoin channel #discussions
03[16:10] * Rejoined channel #discussions
03[16:10] * Retrieving #discussions modes...
Session Time: Wed Sep 10 00:00:00 2014
[09:03] {dino} gm 3 i
01[09:03] {@Threei}  morning dino
[09:19] {RonS} gm...strike update?
01[09:20] {@Threei}  ron :)
01[09:20] {@Threei}  no end still in sight although temperature reaches hysterics
01[09:21] {@Threei}  union demand binding arbitration... govt refuses
[09:22] {RonS} no school then?  boy, if i was in high school i would be pissed...
01[09:23] {@Threei}  grade 12 is not just pissed, they are white mad
01[09:23] {@Threei}  they risk losing a chance for colleges
01[09:23] {@Threei}  they demonstrate today under the banner "we are here, where are you?"
[09:25] {dino} what a mess, these kids will miss out on scholarships, admissions to college, and delays in their lives
01[09:25] {@Threei}  yeah
[09:27] {dino} funny thing is, i do not get a raise unless i earn it. no striking by the self-employed
01[09:27] {@Threei}  that's what they totally ignore... being on public dime, these demands look ridiculous
01[09:31] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:31] {@Threei}  -PIP +30% (contract announcement)
01[09:31] {@Threei}  -CAMT +15% (r'cvd new orders valued at $3M from one of the world's largest OSATs)
01[09:31] {@Threei}  -NPSP +15% (FDA staff posts briefing notes for NATPARA)
01[09:31] {@Threei}  -MNDL +13% (revised guidance)
01[09:31] {@Threei}  -DRL +16% (asset sale proceeds of approx. $423M)
01[09:31] {@Threei}  -OTIV +10% (AAPL presentation)
01[09:31] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:31] {@Threei}  -AU -12% (announced corp. restructuring, $1.2B rights offering)
01[09:31] {@Threei}  -GTAT -8% (post AAPL presentation)
01[09:31] {@Threei}  -WBAI -7.7% (momentum)
01[09:31] {@Threei}  -KKD -3.6% (earnings)
[09:32] {RonS} le +12% earnings squeeze
01[09:33] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .25 break
01[09:34] {@Threei}  If holds  .15
01[09:35] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:35] {@Threei}  1:2
[09:42] {RonS} Alibaba.....Reuters report indicates that Alibaba has received enough to cover its entire IPO after just 2 days of its roadshow
01[09:44] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .05 break
01[09:44] {@Threei}  If holds  .95
01[09:45] {@Threei}  stop to .99
01[09:46] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:46] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:46] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:46] {@Threei}  lol
01[09:56] {@Threei}  BCTF president Jim Iker said the teachers’ demand is “very affordable. It’s $3 a day per student, over a five-year term.”
[09:58] {RonS} why stop there?..."it's only 12.5 cents per hour per student over a 43800 hour term..."
[09:59] {dino} fire them all
01[09:59] {@Threei}  standard salesmen trick
01[09:59] {@Threei}  break donw numbers so they look smaller
[10:00] {RonS} no kidding... reduction to the ridiculous... only when you throw in the actual number of students and add on the bennies it is a whole lot of money
[10:00] {dino} mmi drop
[10:00] {dino} vad,.....i demand a raise of $3/room member/day
01[10:01] {@Threei}  and that's whewn they change the song to "this is our kids, you don't want to spend on our future"'
01[10:01] {@Threei}  hehe
[10:04] {dino} mmi smr l .27
[10:04] {dino} thinny
01[10:05] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .70 break
01[10:05] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[10:06] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:07] {dino} athm calls added
[10:10] {dino} vc spike
01[10:12] {@Threei}  VC Reportedly said to be evaluating options for its Electronics segment - finacnail press
01[10:17] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .95 break
01[10:17] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[10:19] {@Threei}  meh
[10:25] {RonS} DB Buyer 4895 DB Sep14 34.0 Calls $1.35
01[10:25] {@Threei} Long Setup:  EBAY  .70 break
01[10:26] {@Threei}  oops
01[10:26] {@Threei}  late
01[10:26] {@Threei}  in on pullback
01[10:26] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[10:28] {@Threei}  stop to .64
01[10:28] {@Threei}  half out
01[10:28] {@Threei}  close enough to 1:1
01[10:30] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:31] {dino} true drop
01[10:33] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:40] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:40] {@Threei}  out
[10:41] {RonS} a beaut...thanks 3i
01[10:41] {@Threei}  :)
01[10:42] {@Threei}  ugh, too soon
01[10:45] {@Threei}  Prince Edward and his wife Sophie - the Earl and Countess of Wessex - arrive in Victoria Friday
01[10:45] {@Threei}  I can hobknob with royalty?
01[10:53] {@Threei}  troub!
[10:53] {troub} good morrning
01[10:53] {@Threei}  hi
01[10:53] {@Threei}  missed two great days...
[10:54] {troub} figures.  had to take care of some volunteer work. Paid in smiles and thanks.
[10:56] {dino} pcyc spike
[10:57] {RonS} $3 bil govt contract
[10:58] {dino} vsm s pcyc .74
[11:06] {dino} cov pcyc 125.24, +1.50
[11:06] {RonS} gj
[11:06] {dino} ty
01[11:07] {@Threei}  wtg
[11:09] {dino} vnet drop
[11:10] {dino} fraud?
[11:11] {RonS} dino vnet oustanding 3 mil sh...taded +6 mil today and yesterday...imo not a good sign...
[11:11] {dino} fraud comments
01[11:13] {@Threei}  looks bad
[11:14] {dino} halt
01[11:16] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  115 break
01[11:16] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[11:19] {@Threei}  VNET is bak to (going out of) business
01[11:23] {@Threei}  stop to .94
01[11:27] {@Threei}  snow continues to fall in Calgary
01[11:27] {@Threei}  lol... man
01[11:27] {@Threei}  they call it Snowtember now
01[11:29] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:30] {@Threei}  if not that one 6 cents stop earlier, I'd call myself "unstoppable" today and Ron would have puked
[11:30] {dino} ]\lol
01[11:31] {@Threei}  but this is 5th win for the day, and most of them were 1:3 and 1:2
[11:38] {dino} taunting the trading god
01[11:38] {@Threei}  :)
01[11:38] {@Threei}  1:2
01[11:38] {@Threei}  they are asleep
01[11:39] {@Threei}  or they would have smacked this one
[11:40] {dino} prxl spike
[11:40] {RonS} see nothing
01[11:42] {@Threei}  nor I
[11:43] {dino} rcpt spike
01[11:56] {@Threei}  (SY) Reportedly President Obama to request authorization to arm moderate Syria rebels in fight against ISIS - press - Congressional Republicans are said to be opposed to the idea.***Note that Obama will address the nation tonight to lay out his strategy for combatting ISIS in Iraq and Syria
01[12:08] {@Threei}  lol... Victoria folks at their best. Quickly combined images of Calgary and Victoria, and posted with cheecky comment "sending some love to our dear snow-bound friends" https://scontent-a-sea.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/10653736_10152692704058442_6643759927337695357_n.jpg?oh=e9f1bc68f168d942da859881b656fc73&oe=5499CABB
[12:16] {RonS} r&r?  Poroshenko: Russia has withdrawn more than two-thirds of its troops from Ukraine: http://bloom.bg/1xGZdqX
01[12:16] {@Threei}  that's very wierd statement
01[12:17] {@Threei}  most of the sources indicated increase of troops and weapons near Mariupol
01[12:18] {@Threei}  not sure what kind of gambit is being played
[12:21] {cosmo} How does Winnipeg compare this year?
01[12:21] {@Threei}  at least no wnow yet, lol
[12:22] {cosmo} to cold for it
01[12:22] {@Threei}  this is freak snow storm in Calgary... proximity of mountains makes weather very unstable there, although this is totally overboard
[12:23] {cosmo} anomolies everywhere
[12:29] {Raven} anomalies ?
[12:31] {RonS} ya, if nemo comes back and is nice will seal the proof...
01[12:32] {@Threei}  lol
[12:43] {dino} calling it a day, tee time in 45
01[12:53] {@Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .80 break
01[12:53] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[13:02] {@Threei}  half out
01[13:02] {@Threei}  stop to .86
01[13:26] {@Threei}  Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has been invited to address a joint meeting of the U.S. Congress
01[13:26] {@Threei}  why not, before country gets dismantled
01[13:30] {@Threei}  to .81
01[13:49] {@Threei}  [VNET] Muddy Waters (Carson Block) not short the company and would be unlikely to look at the company further analysis
01[13:50] {@Threei}  be back in 30
[14:11] {nathan} whats up gents!
01[14:12] {@Threei}  hey nathan
01[14:12] {@Threei}  another great day here
[14:13] {nathan} :-)
[14:13] {nathan} how many 1:3?
01[14:13] {@Threei}  a few
01[14:13] {@Threei}  and 1:2
[14:13] {nathan} talking serious?
01[14:13] {@Threei}  and 1 budget-crashing stop of 6 cents
01[14:13] {@Threei}  yes
[14:14] {nathan} nice week so far huh
01[14:16] {@Threei}  yup
01[14:23] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .65 break
01[14:23] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
[14:30] {nathan} it takes its time...
01[14:31] {@Threei}  what's your hurry
01[14:31] {@Threei}  everything happens in good time
01[14:31] {@Threei}  let things mature and develop
[14:32] {nathan} yeah no hurries...
[14:32] {nathan} why run?
01[14:32] {@Threei}  we need SPY to break .90 and march to 200
01[14:33] {@Threei}  if it loses .80, trade is not likely to work
[14:33] {nathan} out
01[14:33] {@Threei}  yeah
01[14:34] {@Threei}  first full size stop today
[14:34] {nathan} let's look for another
01[14:55] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .88 break
01[14:55] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[14:55] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[15:13] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .90 break
01[15:13] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[15:21] {@Threei}  another invalidation
01[15:24] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .75 break
01[15:24] {@Threei}  last shot
01[15:24] {@Threei}  If holds  .65
01[15:43] {@Threei}  time's pressing, let's trail to .69
01[15:44] {@Threei}  meh
[15:44] {RonS} Nathan's fault...
01[15:44] {@Threei}  totally
01[15:44] {@Threei}  and nemo
[15:44] {RonS} ..or Nemo's, can't figure which...
01[15:44] {@Threei}  both
01[15:44] {@Threei}  it's easier
01[15:45] {@Threei}  let them sort it out between themselves
01[15:46] {@Threei}  OK guys, thank you all
01[15:46] {@Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow

Sept 09 2014

Very strong day, with three 1:3ers, one 1:2, one scalp and just one stop. Technical problems plagued the room first hours of trading day so we had to use reserve. Those who missed the day, check your e-mail for the room change alert!

Sep 09-09:37) Threei: Long FB .40 break
(Sep 09-09:37) Threei: if holds .30
(Sep 09-09:37) Threei: dino read e-mail
(Sep 09-09:38) dino: gm
(Sep 09-09:38) Threei: not many esle did
(Sep 09-09:40) Threei: 1:1
(Sep 09-09:41) Threei: 1:2
(Sep 09-09:44) RonS: took fb +.25 thanks 3i
(Sep 09-09:44) Threei:
(Sep 09-09:44) Threei: 1:3
(Sep 09-09:44) Threei: out
(Sep 09-09:49) dino: gj
(Sep 09-09:51) dino: added kerx calls
(Sep 09-09:51) Threei: damn thing hit 1:6
(Sep 09-09:52) RonS: 6.5 but who's counting...
(Sep 09-09:52) Threei: lol
(Sep 09-10:00) Threei:  Former Fed Chair Greenspan: Inflation will eventually tick upwards in the US, does not know when inflation will pick up - Interest rates will have to increase eventually, does not know when
(Sep 09-10:00) Threei: lol
(Sep 09-10:01) dino: great insight
(Sep 09-10:01) Threei: no kidding
Sep 09-10:01) dino: what did they pay him for that? couple hundred grand?
(Sep 09-10:02) Threei: I guess "he doesn't know how much"
(Sep 09-10:03) Threei: Long IWM .55 break
(Sep 09-10:03) Threei: too fast
(Sep 09-10:03) dino: ldos smr l .35 wide
(Sep 09-10:06) Threei: 1:3... grrr
(Sep 09-10:06) RonS: crto l .85
(Sep 09-10:14) Threei: nice entry
(Sep 09-10:20) Threei: Long IWM .50 break
(Sep 09-10:21) Threei: If holds .40
(Sep 09-10:24) Threei: 1:1
(Sep 09-10:26) Threei: 1:3
(Sep 09-10:26) dino: i'm not seeing anything
(Sep 09-10:26) dino: gj
(Sep 09-10:29) dino: ldos stop -.35
(Sep 09-10:30) dino: added hclp calls
(Sep 09-10:34) Threei: Long TWTR .70 break
(Sep 09-10:35) Threei: If holds .60
(Sep 09-10:36) dino: cmge drop
(Sep 09-10:37) dino: mky lod
(Sep 09-10:37) dino: mkt
(Sep 09-10:58) dino: scok spike
(Sep 09-11:03) Threei: Long IWM .75 break
(Sep 09-11:04) Threei: If holds .65
(Sep 09-11:08) Threei: 1:1
Threei: CRM Reportedly has identified malware attack; have no evidence that customers have been impacted and are continuing to investigate
(Sep 09-11:45) dino: jw/a drop
(Sep 09-11:56) Threei: Short RAX .90 break
(Sep 09-11:56) Threei: If holds 39
(Sep 09-12:01) Threei: oh man...
(Sep 09-12:01) Threei: Market Update: Broader Indices Weak, World Awaits New iPhone 6
(Sep 09-12:01) Threei: lol
(Sep 09-12:01) Threei: world awaits...
Sep 09-12:05) dino: jw/a sm l .58
(Sep 09-12:28) Threei: invalidated
(Sep 09-12:59) Threei: Long VXX .95 break
(Sep 09-12:59) Threei: If holds .85
(Sep 09-13:10) RonS: people wondering if Ackman is on the Aapl stage...
(Sep 09-13:12) RonS: gtat blood
(Sep 09-13:33) Threei: lol
(Sep 09-13:33) Threei: iphone6 is being described
(Sep 09-13:33) Threei: second coming, no less
(Sep 09-13:43) dino: out jw/a .60 ave +1.02
(Sep 09-13:43) RonS: wtg
(Sep 09-13:43) dino: ty, missed that gtat tho
(Sep 09-13:48) Threei: wtg
(Sep 09-13:48) Threei: can you believe market running on AAPL?
Sep 09-13:49) dino: no, comp maybe
(Sep 09-13:50) dino: nxpi spike
(Sep 09-13:50) dino: bita drop
(Sep 09-13:52) nathan: hi gents
(Sep 09-13:52) RonS: hi
(Sep 09-13:52) nathan: new chat room
(Sep 09-13:52) dino: hey nat
(Sep 09-13:52) dino: yeah, got tired of everybody so came over here
(Sep 09-13:53) nathan: oh great
(Sep 09-13:53) nathan: much better
(Sep 09-13:53) dino:  
(Sep 09-13:53) dino: plus, better smiley faces
(Sep 09-13:54) Threei: hey nathan
(Sep 09-13:54) Threei: main room is back up
(Sep 09-13:54) Threei: let's migrate?



[13:55] {dino} ldos sm l .00
[13:56] {dino} brb
[13:56] {nathan} what happened roday?
[13:56] {nathan} today
01[13:56] {@Threei}  server died
01[13:56] {@Threei}  just fixed
01[13:56] {@Threei}  so we use reserve room when that happens
[13:56] {nathan} hacked?
01[13:56] {@Threei}  bookmark it please
01[13:56] {@Threei}  no, just hiccup
[13:56] {nathan} done it
01[13:57] {@Threei}  nathan... you won't believe it but we got 3 1:3ers today
01[13:57] {@Threei}  and just one stop
[13:57] {nathan} i though your russian friends...
01[13:57] {@Threei}  lol
[13:57] {nathan} can't believe it
01[13:57] {@Threei}  my friends are in Ukraine
[13:57] {nathan} i allways miss the best
[13:57] {RonS} ebay drained
[13:58] {nathan} because of alibaba?
[13:58] {RonS} think market expected an aapl payment tie-in to paypal
[13:59] {nathan} yeah I read something. Vodafone is willing to launch this service payment too with visa I think
[14:00] {nathan} spy dt?
01[14:01] {@Threei}  I think it's just AAPL drop that pushed SPY down
[14:04] {nathan} AAPL 104 million shares?!?!
01[14:05] {@Threei}  where have you been nathan? You might be the only man on Earth not knowing anouyt today's Iphone6 launch :)
[14:06] {nathan} working?
01[14:06] {@Threei}  the world held its collective breath
[14:06] {nathan} :-)
01[14:06] {@Threei}  miners stopped mining
[14:06] {nathan} this is for the masses
01[14:06] {@Threei}  pilots stopped flying
[14:06] {nathan} hehehe
01[14:06] {@Threei}  peoples stopped peopling
01[14:07] {@Threei}  veen, believe it or not, nemo stopped nemoing
[14:07] {nathan} and becoming idiots
[14:07] {nathan} is he on the line?
[14:07] {nathan} waiting for the new iphone?
01[14:08] {@Threei}  nah, some personal things to take care of
[14:08] {dino} nathan, you missed 1.02 out of jw/a
[14:08] {nathan} :-(
[14:09] {nathan} how many shares? hl?
[14:10] {dino} only 300
[14:10] {dino} thing was hookering
[14:10] {nathan} not that bad
[14:10] {dino} still running .15 spread
[14:12] {RonS} isn't Nathan Spanish...he doesn't know what you are talking about...lol
01[14:12] {@Threei}  there are no hookers in Spaon?
01[14:13] {@Threei}  spain
[14:13] {dino} believe they ar everywhere
[14:13] {nathan} of course we have :-)
[14:13] {RonS} no expression re bid/ask spread...
[14:13] {nathan} more than in the usa
[14:13] {nathan} :-)
[14:14] {dino} in golf we like to say that every now and then a little hooer is good
[14:14] {dino} hooker
[14:15] {dino} oled drop
[14:18] {nathan} do u trade this dino?
[14:18] {dino} indeed
[14:18] {dino} sm l .95
[14:18] {nathan} too much spread for me
[14:19] {dino} out ldos .31, +.31
[14:19] {nathan} gj
[14:19] {dino} out oled .65, +.70
[14:19] {RonS} lol...just tie that 2x4 to your ass and jump...
[14:20] {dino} bounced at 200 on daily
[14:20] {nathan} lol
[14:21] {dino} thats my "edge" nathan. give me fast capitulations or euphoric spikes
[14:25] {RonS} how was outer space?
[14:25] {cosmo} success...sheesh
01[14:26] {@Threei}  cosmo, you don't have reserve room bookmarked?
[14:26] {cosmo} uh
01[14:27] {@Threei}  I'll decode it as "I do but I forgot all about it" :)
[14:27] {cosmo} ok...that works
01[14:28] {@Threei}  need url again?
[14:28] {cosmo} yes pls
01[14:28] {@Threei}  http://www.realitytrader.com/tradingroom/reserve.html
[14:30] {cosmo} k, bookmarked...
[14:30] {cosmo} thx
[14:30] {cosmo} again
01[14:31] {@Threei}  np
01[14:31] {@Threei}  and you never got e-mail in the morning?
01[14:34] {@Threei}  this actually might be because database has you old address... dcc me your new one, I'll correct this
01[14:35] {@Threei} Long Setup:  SPY  .80 break
01[14:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[14:37] {@Threei}  1:1
[15:03] {nathan} 3i how many share do you have in appl?
01[15:11] {Threei}  I don't have any position in AAPL, nathan
[15:12] {nathan} though you were busy with apple :-)
01[15:12] {Threei}  nah
[15:12] {nathan} ordering the new iphone maybe?
01[15:13] {Threei}  lol
01[15:13] {Threei}  if you saw my phone, you wouldn't recognize it as phone
01[15:13] {Threei}  and even that I can't always find
01[15:13] {Threei}  wait, I'll show you...
[15:13] {nathan} lol
01[15:14] {Threei}  http://www.mobilecodez.com/images/motorola/V360.jpg
01[15:14] {Threei}  this is what I use for a cellphone
[15:15] {nathan} hehehe
01[15:15] {Threei}  today's use sees it and says "nice, umm, device, whnatever it is... where is your phone?"
[15:15] {nathan} thats waht my  1 year son uses to play
[15:16] {dino} i'm on windows phone, was free. i like it. doe lots more than i need
[15:16] {dino} doe=does
[15:18] {nathan} watch FB
01[15:26] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .10 break
01[15:26] {Threei}  If holds  115
01[15:28] {Threei}  1:1
[15:29] {nathan} thx vad
01[15:29] {Threei}  sure thing
[15:31] {nathan} dont want to spoil the day
[15:31] {nathan} so, good night
01[15:31] {Threei}  take care :)
01[15:38] {Threei}  1:2
01[15:38] {Threei}  nathan is too quick to exit :)
[15:40] {dino} cmge blood
[15:40] {dino} nhtc too
01[15:51] {Threei}  ok guys, thank you
01[15:51] {Threei}  have a great evening, see you tomorrow
[15:54] {dino} gn all

Sept 08 2014

Somewhat slow day but with two 1:3ers and one 1:4, we would be hard-pressed to complain.


Session Time: Mon Sep 08 00:00:00 2014
[09:07] {dino} gm
01[09:07] {@Threei}  dino :)
01[09:08] {@Threei}  guess whether ceasefire holds in Ukraine
[09:11] {dino} not
01[09:12] {@Threei}  wasn't very hard to guess... :)
[09:18] {troub} good morning
01[09:18] {@Threei}  [TWTR] To begin testing shopping service today with buy buttons in Tweets - press Today some users will receive tweets from Twitter test partners featuring a buy button that lets them make purchases or donate money. Initial partners include the musical groups Soundgarden and Panic! At The Disco, retailers Home Depot and Burberry, and nonprofits The Nature Conservancy and GLAAD.
01[09:19] {@Threei}  troub :)
[09:25] {RonS} gm...airline strength guess on oil weakness
01[09:25] {@Threei}  ron :)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  interesting, oil wekens even with new round of sanctions, and they are oil-related
01[09:27] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -MGAM +30% (confirms deal to be acquired by Global Cash Access for $36.50/shr)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -HTZ +4.6% (announces new CEO)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -RAX +4.4% (rumors CTL will acquire the company for its cloud services)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -DRL +4.4% (court rules Commonwealth will have burden of proof in tax trial)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -FEYE +3.4% (positive broker commentary)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -BCRX +3.2% (RAPIVAB trial results at ICAAC meeting)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -YHOO +1.7% (positive broker commentary)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -TWTR +2.5% (blogs discuss test launch of previously announced shopping service)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -HPTX -12% (terminates DiaPep277 programs, non-cash impairment of $25-55M)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -AKS -4.2% (offering 35M common shares; 9.5% outstanding and $430M in senior notes due 2021)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -GSK -4% (Ebola vaccine requires booster to be effective; momentum from negative GILD news)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -BCS -4% (negative momentum from Scotland referendum; note that RBS, LYG also down)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -CPB -3.4% (earnings)
[09:34] {dino} .
01[09:34] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .60 break
01[09:34] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[09:35] {@Threei}  change to .55 break
01[09:35] {@Threei}  fast...
01[09:38] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:40] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:41] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .40 break hl
01[09:41] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:42] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:44] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .20 break hl
01[09:45] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:49] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .70 break
01[09:49] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[09:50] {@Threei}  change to .65
01[09:55] {@Threei}  change to .60
01[09:55] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[10:00] {@Threei}  half out
01[10:00] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:02] {RonS} a refusal to lead:  White House seeks buy-in at home and abroad for expanded offensive: http://bloom.bg/1uFjYhb
01[10:03] {@Threei}  heh
[10:03] {cosmo} how about a bail-in?
[10:08] {RonS} das boot
01[10:18] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .50 break
01[10:18] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[10:20] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:23] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .30 break
01[10:23] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[10:31] {@Threei}  no go
[10:32] {dino} 07 fast red
[10:33] {dino} oils/drillers getting smacked
01[10:33] {@Threei}  good
01[10:39] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .10 break
01[10:39] {@Threei}  If holds  116
01[10:43] {@Threei}  The European Union will press ahead with implementing new sanctions on Russia later on Monday despite a shaky ceasefire in Ukraine, the European Commission said.
01[10:46] {@Threei}  half out
01[10:48] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:48] {dino} gj
01[10:49] {@Threei}  ty
01[10:53] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:57] {@Threei}  1:4
01[10:58] {@Threei}  out
[10:58] {dino} added kors calls
01[10:58] {@Threei}  looked away while it was hitting 1:3, lol
01[11:16] {@Threei}  UK financial markets are unsettled at the prospect of Scotland voting for independence on September 18th. One poll out this weekend put the "Yes" (to independence) camp ahead of the "No" option for the first time
[11:20] {RonS} thinkin Brady played so bad yesterday Nemo got sick...
[11:20] {dino} roflol
01[11:22] {@Threei}  lol
[11:39] {RonS} the horror:  Apple's IPhone announcement means life-or-death for companies around the globe: http://bloom.bg/1rteEum
[11:40] {RonS} freakin journalists have no idea what business is...
[11:45] {RonS} kerx acting like it wants $14...then $13...
[11:46] {RonS} ...then some big guy will buy them for $20 and figure out how to market that drug...
01[11:46] {@Threei}  20 if they are lucky
01[11:52] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .60 break
01[11:52] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[11:53] {@Threei}  nah
[12:00] {nathan} hi gents!
[12:01] {nathan} hope u are all doing well
01[12:01] {@Threei}  hey nathan!
01[12:01] {@Threei}  got 1:4 on IWM earlier
[12:02] {nathan} wow
[12:02] {nathan} that's what i need :-)
01[12:02] {@Threei}  [10:39] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .10 break
01[12:02] {@Threei}  [10:39] {@Threei} If holds 116
01[12:04] {@Threei}  anyone has a feeling SPY is about to crater?
01[12:05] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .60 break
01[12:05] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
[12:10] {dino} ty ron kerx, took .30 out of it
[12:10] {RonS} gj
01[12:10] {@Threei}  nice
[12:10] {nathan} nice one
[12:30] {nathan} still valid 3i
[12:30] {nathan} ?
[12:30] {nathan} kissed .5'
[12:30] {nathan} .50
01[12:30] {@Threei}  while holding .50, yes
01[12:33] {@Threei}  not anymore
01[12:39] {@Threei} Long Setup:  HAL  .20 breal hl
01[12:39] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
[13:06] {dino} slow day again
01[13:06] {@Threei}  yes... was picking up last week but took a breather today
01[13:09] {@Threei}  TSLA To developing self-driving car technology - Nikkei News
01[13:16] {@Threei}  HAL seems to be shaping up
01[13:20] {@Threei}  here comes that cratering
01[13:20] {@Threei}  no news
01[13:22] {@Threei}  frikin VXX
01[13:22] {@Threei}  rinsed
01[13:38] {@Threei}  Invalidated  HAL
01[13:52] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .85 break
01[13:52] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
01[13:53] {@Threei}  if this one shakes us out as well, playing pullbacks only on VXX from now on
01[13:58] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[13:58] {@Threei}  but on watch
01[14:05] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .76 break
01[14:05] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[14:13] {@Threei}  held by fingertips
01[14:13] {@Threei}  still not very clear
01[14:14] {@Threei}  nah, not yet
01[14:33] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .15 break
01[14:33] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
[14:49] {nathan} oh well!
[14:49] {nathan}  have a good nitght
[14:49] {nathan} hope to c u tomorrow
01[14:50] {@Threei}  wait
01[14:50] {@Threei}  IWM just started moving
[14:50] {nathan} ok
[14:52] {nathan} everything is too slow
[14:52] {nathan} should be that way? it's sept
01[14:53] {@Threei}  no, starts accelerating gradually
01[14:54] {@Threei}  1:1
[15:01] {dino} sssllloooowwwwww
[15:01] {dino} kinda sucks
01[15:02] {@Threei}  moving further
01[15:11] {@Threei}  1:2
[15:12] {dino} gj
01[15:12] {@Threei}  glad you stayed, nathan?
01[15:12] {@Threei}  ty'
[15:29] {nathan} many thanks vad!
01[15:34] {@Threei}  :)
01[15:34] {@Threei}  1:3
01[15:34] {@Threei}  me out
[15:39] {nathan} now I can say good night
[15:39] {nathan} ;-)
01[15:39] {@Threei}  yes :)
[15:40] {nathan} c u tomorrow
01[15:41] {@Threei}  you too
01[15:47] {@Threei}  ok guys, thank you all
01[15:47] {@Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrowq
[15:48] {dino} tep spike

Market Week Wrap-up

TradeTheNews.com  Weekly Market Update: ECB Acts, Markets React

Fri, 05 Sep 2014 16:20 PM EST

- With Europe slowly sinking into deflation and looming recession, the ECB took action this week, cutting rates and pledging to launch an asset-backed securities buying program. In the US, the August jobs report was weaker than expected, although analysts largely explained away the miss. The S&P500 has seemed reluctant to go much higher after topping 2000 for the first time last week. The conflict in Ukraine turned from warfare to diplomacy yet again as evidence of Russia's hand in the fighting became more and more obvious and Western allies threatened additional economic sanctions. China PMI readings stabilized, which was enough to send the Shanghai Composite up nearly five percent, its biggest weekly gain in over a year. For the week, the DJIA rose 0.2%, the S&P500 gained 0.2% and the Nasdaq edged up less than 0.1%.

- On Thursday the ECB cut its refinancing rate to 0.05% from 0.15% and its deposit rate to -0.2% from -0.1%, and announced that it would launch an asset purchase program focused on private asset-backed securities. ECB President Draghi pronounced that that the ECB was now officially at the lower bound of interest rates and that no more rate cuts were possible. The decisions were not unanimous, however Draghi said a "comfortable majority" was in favor of the new measures. Observers pointed out that the European ABS market was relatively small and that the program might not be the sort of weapon that would do much to forestall deflation. The big bazooka of sovereign bond purchases remains on the shelf, with German opposition to its use still very strong; note that the Bundesbank's Weidmann was the most vocal opponent to the rate cuts and ABS program announced this week.

- The August US jobs report disappointed markets on Friday with a sizable miss in the nonfarm payrolls (+142K v +230Ke). The NFP was the lowest reading in 2014 so far and broke a six-month stretch of 200K+ monthly gains, the longest run seen since the late 1990s. Commentators noted that the August data has the greatest chance of being revised higher due to seasonal factors, and many analysts suggest the final estimate will rise to the upper half of the 150-200K range. In addition, over the last 12 years or so, every NFP print over +300K has been followed by one near or under +100K, suggesting that the July/August data are following a well-established pattern.

- Coming into the week, the situation in Ukraine was going from bad to worse, with reports indicating more columns of Russian tanks and troops were entering the country to reinforce pro-Russian separatists in their offensive against government forces. On Wednesday Russia President Putin and Ukraine President Poroshenko restarted diplomacy that had broken off a week before, agreeing to discuss another ceasefire on Friday. It was not lost on anyone that Putin's overture came as the planned NATO summit convened in Wales. Ahead of the confab, US President Obama reiterated the alliance's defense commitments to its eastern members, and at the summit NATO finalized agreements for more aid to Ukraine and leaders said more sanctions on Russia are imminent. On Friday, Kiev and the separatists agreed to a temporary ceasefire and talks continue for a more enduring truce.

- Shares of BP dropped sharply on Thursday, pulling the FTSE lower with it, after a US judge ruled that the company was grossly negligent in the 2010 Macondo oil spill. Recall that BP has already agreed to pay $13.7 billion in fines for the Gulf of Mexico spill, but the "gross negligence" finding means BP could face quadruple damages and a maximum of $18 billion in additional fines. Transocean and Halliburton were found to be partly culpable but cleared of gross negligence in the case.

- August auto sales were mostly beat expectations, highlighted by Chrysler's sales up 20% y/y. The overall industry continues to see sales volumes recover to levels last seen before the recession. A Ford sales executive said the industry is very strong at this stage in the US economic recovery, with August industry SAAR running around a mid-17M unit annualized rate, the best rate since 2006.

- Homebuilders Toll Brothers and Hovnanian both beat expectations in third quarter reports out this week, and both firms saw very good y/y gains in revenues and profits. Toll Brothers narrowed its FY14 guidance for expected deliveries and said ASPs would be higher than expected, sending the company's shares lower. Hovnanian did not offer guidance, but its metrics for the quarter were pretty solid, with the backlog up by double digits.

- According to press reports, Alibaba plans to kick off its IPO roadshow in New York City starting on Monday, Sept 8th. On Friday, the IPO pricing range was set at $60-66/ADS implying a valuation around $150 billion (similar to the market cap of Amazon). Alibaba is expected to price the IPO on Sept 18th and begin trading its shares on the NYSE on Sept 19th.

- In M&A, two large deals were announced on Tuesday. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings agreed to acquire Prestige Cruises International Inc. in a deal valued at about $3.03 billion. Prestige is owned by PE firm Apollo Global Management, which also has a 20% stake in Norwegian. Compuware reached a tentative deal to sell itself for $2.5 billion to PE fund Thomas Bravo. Compuware had been under pressure from activist investors to cut costs, lay off staff, and solicit buyout offers for more than a year.

- The ECB policy decision on Thursday slammed the euro, driving the biggest one-day decline in EUR/USD since October 2011, with the pair dropping to 1.2920 from 1.3150. EUR/USD spent all of Thursday and Friday below 1.30. EUR/CHF tested 1.2045, getting as close to the SNB floor as the pair has been since it was established in September 2011. The pound was softer as traders positioned nervously ahead of the Scottish independence referendum scheduled for September 18th. A YouGov poll out this week suggested that support for Scottish independence had risen eight points over the past month, dangerously close to the 50% threshold. Analysts pointed out that a significant GBP risk event could unfold as UK economic data has begun to soften across the board.

- USD/JPY hit 6-year highs late in the week after Japan PM Abe offered LDP deputy policy chief Yasuhisa Shiozaki the Health Minister cabinet post, sparking hopes of early GPIF pension reform. Shiozaki has been the LDP's largest proponent of GPIF pension reform including diversification into more domestic equities and foreign securities and away from domestic bonds.

- The Bank of Japan maintained its assessment for the 13th consecutive meeting that "economy continued to recover moderately as a trend", and despite some speculation of a more upbeat language, it largely stuck to the familiar script. The only change in the latest BOJ statement was a downgrade on the property market, noting the "decline in housing investment following front-loaded increase has continued." Also of note out of Japan, wage inflation is finally accelerating more meaningfully, with the latest data out of Labor Statistics showing July cash earnings growing by 2.6% y/y - the largest increase since 1997. This should provide some welcome relief to Abenomics, just as the cabinet approval ratings for PM Abe also headed higher following this week's cabinet reshuffle. Late on Friday, Japan's Economy Minister Amari pledged more caution in the government's expected December decision on whether to proceed with another round of sales tax hikes.

- China PMI figures showed the economy diverging in favor of the services sector, which would be in line with policy objectives in Beijing. Official non-manufacturing PMI rose for the first time in 3 months to 54.4 from 54.2, while HSBC services PMI hit a 17-month high of 54.1 following an alarming record low of 50.0 print in July. In contrast, the official manufacturing PMI slowed for the first time in 6 months to 51.1, and the final HSBC manufacturing PMI fell to a 3-month low. HSBC chief China economist was cautious on both measures, noting subdued domestic demand and considerable downside risks to growth in the second half of 2014 related to the property sector slowdown justifying expectations for more easing measures to support the recovery. The Shanghai Composite was bid higher by an impressive 4.9% this week - the biggest gain since early 2013 and the highest level for the index in 15 months.

TradeTheNews

Sept 05 2015

Still slow but picking up and becoming easier by day. Couple nice 1:3ers on FB and SPY made for a nice finish to the week

Session Time: Fri Sep 05 00:00:00 2014
[09:08] {dino} gm
01[09:08] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:09] {RonS} gm gents
01[09:09] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:16] {troub} good morning
01[09:16] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  quiet pre-market
01[09:23] {@Threei}  most likely quiet day
[09:24] {nemo} 7 mill spy and bad retail results
01[09:24] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -PRAN +30% (FDA orphan drug designation for PBT2 for Huntington's Disease)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -BLOX +14% (earnings)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -AMBA +9% (earnings)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -LOCO +6% (earnings)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -MOBI +3.8% (repurchased 16M shares from Sequoia Capital)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -FCEL +2.5% (accelerating commercialization of Solid Oxide Fuel Cell development with $7.5M contract)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -REPH -50% (Phase IIb trial of Dex-IN shows no statistical significance as single agent)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -ZQK -17% (earnings)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -ZUMZ -6.2% (earnings)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -GPS -5.8% (earnings)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -FNSR -5.3% (earnings)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -KORS -4.5% (prices 11.6M offering at $76.75/shr)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -SEAC -4.3% (earnings)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  \
[09:25] {RonS} loco pasado pulpa
01[09:27] {@Threei}  keeping an eye ion KORS
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .20 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[09:33] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:35] {@Threei} Long Setup:  KORS  76 break hl
01[09:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
01[09:39] {@Threei}  nah
[09:48] {dino} adding hclp calls
[09:52] {dino} kors sm l .00
01[09:52] {@Threei} Long Setup:  SPY  .10 break
01[09:52] {@Threei}  If holds  200
[09:56] {nemo} oops
01[09:56] {@Threei}  ?
01[09:57] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:03] {dino} out kors .25, +.25
[10:03] {nemo} SOB!!!!
[10:04] {nemo} frickin' wicked out by a penny
[10:06] {RonS} wow gild...what a range
01[10:06] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .80 break
01[10:06] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
[10:07] {nemo} did you mean .90
[10:08] {troub} tight stop
[10:09] {RonS} lol
01[10:09] {@Threei}  .90 of course
01[10:10] {@Threei}  smart asses
01[10:10] {@Threei}  :)
01[10:10] {@Threei}  what was it, 1:2 while you mocked me? :)
[10:10] {nemo} gone before I saw it
01[10:11] {@Threei}  huh?
[10:11] {troub} mock? never
01[10:11] {@Threei}  no way
01[10:11] {@Threei}  it was quite easy at .92
[10:11] {nemo} I never saw it was over the whole
01[10:15] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .80 break
01[10:15] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[10:17] {@Threei}  no go
01[10:18] {@Threei}  KORS nice recovery
[10:19] {dino} yeah, sold too soon
[10:24] {dino} rare gap fill
01[10:46] {@Threei}  Teachers who are going without a paycheque now are not allowed to tutor students. That would be akin to crossing the picket line, the union says.
[10:47] {RonS} seig heil...
01[10:51] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .60 break
01[10:51] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
[10:52] {dino} out db calls from few weeks ago, +.60/38%
01[10:52] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:53] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .90 break
01[10:53] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[11:01] {@Threei}  no go
01[11:06] {@Threei}  rinse
01[11:06] {@Threei}  son of a motherless goat
01[11:07] {@Threei}  1:2... ^%$@(&%
[11:13] {dino} what are you trying to say
01[11:13] {@Threei}  jujst expressing how happy I am about blue sky, floating butterflies, blooming flowers
[11:14] {dino} ahh, indeed
[11:17] {RonS} Obama speaking in about 15 minutes....place your bet...
01[11:27] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .10 break
01[11:27] {@Threei}  If holds  76
01[11:31] {@Threei}  UR) Reportedly explosions heard north of the eastern Ukraine city of Donesk minutes after the ceasefire agreement went into effect
[11:31] {nemo} vodka still
[11:32] {nemo} oxy having trouble while market strong
01[11:41] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:43] {@Threei}  1:2
01[11:44] {@Threei}  this new trading software I am testing has amazing feature
01[11:44] {@Threei}  stock reaches the level you eant to take partial at, you click on the line with position and elect option "sell 50%"
01[11:45] {@Threei}  boom, done
01[11:45] {@Threei}  next level, do the same, this time it sells 1/4 of original
01[11:45] {@Threei}  last sell level, elect 100%
01[11:45] {@Threei}  no entering or changing amount of shares
01[11:45] {@Threei}  just one click
[11:45] {RonS} nice
01[11:46] {@Threei}  just have to be willing to use market order of course
01[11:46] {@Threei}  so appl,icable to nicely liquid stocks
01[11:54] {@Threei}  1:3
01[11:54] {@Threei}  out
01[11:54] {@Threei}  finally something decent
[11:58] {nemo} wow u can short tna today
[12:11] {dino} gj
[12:13] {dino} nemo, watched star trek into darkness the other night, i'm loking the new trek cast/movies
[12:15] {nemo} yeah, they do a nice job, but I liked the first movie better...however, that Benedict Cumberbatch is an impressive actor...you should see him in the modern BBC Sherlock Holmes...he was also good in Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy with Gary Oldman
[12:16] {dino} liked the way they are building up the kahn history
[12:17] {nemo} The guy who plays Kirk is in an older movie on Netflix about the 1976 Wine Challenge in France where California wines took the top prize...really good I think it's called Bottle Shock.  Has another Brit I really like whose name escapes me
[12:19] {nemo} watching VXX  Vad?
[12:20] {nemo} Alibaba begins trading the 18th so they hold the market up at least until then
01[12:21] {@Threei}  VXX... tempting
[12:22] {nemo} might be a tad early
[12:22] {nemo} Hey Dino:  NFLPC  http://goo.gl/c2zeMR
[12:25] {RonS} jazz, agn buyout rumor
01[12:38] {@Threei}  Obama says hopeful but skeptical of Ukraine ceasefire
01[12:38] {@Threei}  that pretty much descxribes my feelings about his resignation
[12:38] {RonS} or competence...
01[12:39] {@Threei}  no... not hopeful about that at all
[12:48] {nemo} VXX bounce
[12:55] {RonS} Estonia says security officer was taken at gunpoint into Russia: http://bloom.bg/1Af1dml
01[12:56] {@Threei}  http://uk.investing.com/news/world-news/estonian-security-police-say-officer-abducted-on-russian-border-13315
01[12:56] {@Threei}  these nice folks at the helm of EU, US, NATO should realize that Putin ewill dtop only when he is stopped
01[12:57] {@Threei}  stop
01[13:01] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .65 break
01[13:01] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
[13:07] {nemo} spy 201
01[13:07] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[13:17] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .60 break
01[13:17] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
[13:24] {RonS} KERX Quotes resume at 1:35, trading 1:40.
[13:25] {RonS} 23% float short  20 mil sh
01[14:04] {@Threei}  ugh
[14:05] {nemo} they may run this to ATH
[14:06] {nemo} BTFD!!!
[14:07] {dino} yep
[14:07] {nemo} see if I can make today a respectable loss
01[14:48] {@Threei} Long Setup:  SPY  .80 break
01[14:49] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
[14:52] {nemo} breakouts in a dull market
01[14:53] {@Threei}  this is pullback entry
01[15:07] {@Threei}  1:1
[15:25] {dino} out hclp calls from earlier, +1.06/+24%
01[15:25] {@Threei}  wtg
[15:25] {dino} ty
[15:26] {nemo} should gap up on Monday
01[15:27] {@Threei}  if no sudden developments, yes
[15:27] {nemo} probably over 202 at least in pre market
[15:30] {nemo} vxx looks bearish
[15:30] {nemo} no fear
01[15:31] {@Threei}  nope
01[15:32] {@Threei}  just holding piece of SPY with .79 stop still, to see how it ends
[15:41] {nemo} I'm getting no T&S movement in my display
[15:42] {nemo} what do you have for a spy price Vad?
01[15:42] {@Threei}  .91
01[15:42] {@Threei}  .90 x .91
[15:42] {nemo} something screwed up here
[15:43] {nemo} logged out and in
01[15:44] {@Threei}  1:2
01[15:50] {@Threei}  1:3
01[15:50] {@Threei}  out
01[15:51] {@Threei}  happy to end the week on this
01[15:51] {@Threei}  trading is much much easier already than it was in Aug
01[15:51] {@Threei}  and will be only better from here
[15:51] {dino} still slow
01[15:51] {@Threei}  yeah, well, short week
01[15:52] {@Threei}  right after vacation
[15:52] {dino} but last two weeks have been very profittable
01[15:52] {@Threei}  picks up gradually
01[15:52] {@Threei}  :)
01[15:52] {@Threei}  thank you all, have a great weekend'
01[15:52] {@Threei}  see you Monday
[15:53] {dino} gn all

Sept 04 2014

Another decent day, not without stops but with positive trades outweighing them nicely. A bit on a slow side today

Session Time: Thu Sep 04 00:00:00 2014
[09:09] {dino} gm
01[09:10] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:12] {RonS} gm guys
01[09:12] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:12] {nemo} aapl hit resistance
[09:13] {nemo} good spy volume this morning
01[09:14] {@Threei}  just gapped the wrong way {G}
[09:14] {nemo} http://goo.gl/LfdH8d
[09:14] {troub} good morning
01[09:14] {@Threei}  troub :)
[09:14] {nemo} I'll sign back in later...don't want to puke on my keyboard
01[09:15] {@Threei}  he is so sensitive...
[09:16] {RonS} lol
01[09:19] {@Threei}  oh, good morning nemo, how are you today? I trust you are just fine, and your day starts sunny
[09:22] {nemo} Vad, mailing a present off today for you to open at Xmas...just ignore the ticking sound
01[09:22] {@Threei}  oh thank you, this is so thoughtful!
[09:23] {nemo} yes, it's to help you in your spiritual transition
[09:23] {nemo} AAPL
[09:23] {nemo} looks short here
[09:23] {nemo} gonna' test .10
01[09:24] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -MITK +62% (settles USAA lawsuit)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -BOLT +35% (being acquired by Teledyne for $22/shr)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -MAGS +10% (earnings)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -PVH +9% (earnings)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -TIBX +7% (announces review of strategic alternatives)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -NLNK +4% (receives FDA approval to proceed with Phase 1 trial of Ebola vaccine)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -MTRX -15% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -SMLP -5% (prices 4.35M unit upsized secondary at $53.88/shr - prev 4M units)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -MEMP -4.5% (prices 13M offering at $22.29/shr)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -MBLY -4.2% (earnings & FY guidance)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -DDD -2.8% (cautious broker commentary)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -NRF -2.6% (prices 45M offering at $18.40/shr)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -YUM -2.6% (sees negative impact in China from bad publicity re food handling)
[09:26] {nemo} hit .11
[09:26] {nemo} needs to stay under .l45
[09:26] {nemo} .45
[09:26] {nemo} probably wick over .50 though
[09:32] {nemo} aapl downhill good for a buck
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .90 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:34] {@Threei}  1:3
01[09:34] {@Threei}  nice AAPL call
01[09:36] {@Threei}  1:4
01[09:36] {@Threei}  quite a jump
[09:36] {dino} gj
[09:37] {dino} added mitk puts
01[09:38] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .30 break
01[09:39] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
[09:39] {nemo} this 40 area yesterday's vwap
[09:40] {nemo} I think .45 a possibility
01[09:44] {@Threei}  stop to .36
01[09:44] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:45] {@Threei}  09:45 *(US) AUG FINAL MARKIT SERVICES PMI: 59.5 V 58.5E
01[09:45] {@Threei}  (US) Federal Reserve paper comments on unemployment; finds that much of decline in participation rate has been structural in nature
[09:46] {nemo} watch aapl 99.50ish
01[09:54] {@Threei}  kangaroo tail
01[09:54] {@Threei} Short Setup: AAPL  .50 break hl
[09:54] {nemo} damn
01[09:54] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[09:54] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:56] {nemo} SPY looks like short setting up
[09:56] {nemo} two way
01[10:00] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .55 break
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) AUG ISM NON-MANUFACTURING: 59.6 V 57.7E
01[10:00] {@Threei}  If holds  .65
01[10:07] {@Threei}  no go
01[10:15] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .20 break
[10:15] {nemo} oops
01[10:16] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[10:16] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:22] {dino} out sndk calls from tuesday, +1.26/+18%
01[10:23] {@Threei}  1:2
[10:26] {nemo} aapl short setting up
[10:26] {nemo} could go to 100.25ish
[10:28] {dino} scanners slow today
[10:30] {RonS} AMSC: American Superconductor trading halted, news pending
01[10:30] {@Threei}  [BP] US Federal judge rules BP was grossly negligent in 2010 Macondo GoM oil spill - financial press - BP disputes finding, claims that their errors don't satisfy threshold to be considered grossly negligent**NOTE: BP has already agreed to pay $13.7B in fines, but some reports about the current gross negligence trial have indicated that BP could face up to $18B in additional fines.- Follow up: RIG and HAL reportedly cleared of gross negligence claims in the Macando spill
01[10:31] {@Threei}  been a long while since we traded BP and RIG
01[10:43] {@Threei} Long Setup:  BO  .90 break
01[10:43] {@Threei} Long Setup:  BP  .90 break
01[10:43] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[10:45] {@Threei}  no go
[10:45] {nemo} whoa
[10:45] {nemo} they're open to big liabilities now
01[10:54] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .40 break
01[10:54] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[10:57] {@Threei}  take half lot here
01[10:57] {@Threei}  aggressively
01[10:57] {@Threei}  to add haklf on .40 break
01[11:00] {@Threei}  stop for first half is .24
[11:07] {nemo} BP sprung a leak ...homage to Ron
01[11:09] {@Threei}  lol
01[11:10] {@Threei}  half out
01[11:11] {@Threei}  1/4 more out
01[11:11] {@Threei}  love those aggressive entries
[11:20] {RonS} apc pulp moves
01[11:20] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .45 break
01[11:20] {@Threei}  If holds  .38
01[11:31] {@Threei}  shorting SPY itself is probably better way than long VXX
01[11:31] {@Threei}  20 cents drop SPY, VXX barely upticked
[11:31] {nemo} tomorrow vxx
01[11:32] {@Threei}  why?
[11:32] {nemo} Friday more weekend risk
[11:32] {nemo} Draghi had kumbaya day
01[11:33] {@Threei}  yes but... why doesn't it move in closer tandem with SPY
[11:33] {nemo} related to options
[11:33] {nemo} no fear Thursday
[11:34] {nemo} Not a consistent correlation
[11:37] {nemo} spy should retrace to vwap from here
[11:40] {nemo} friggin' bp
[11:46] {nemo} Oy vay, Roadkill day for me
01[11:47] {@Threei}  half out VXX
01[11:53] {@Threei}  closed balance on a trail
01[12:09] {@Threei}  - Super Mario made a bold move to forestall Eurozone deflation this morning, cutting rates and teeing up an asset purchase program. Markets loved the news and European equity indices (with the exception of the FTSE) are up sharply and looking to close at their highs, while sovereign yield curves have steepen notably.
[12:11] {nemo} BP 44.80 area maybe
[12:28] {nemo} BP two way
[12:41] {nemo} BP
[12:43] {dino} clw spike
[13:34] {troub} .
[13:34] {dino} interesting point
[13:35] {troub} so said Custer
[13:43] {dino} slow day
[13:48] {nemo} market looking lower
[13:48] {nemo} would think spy wants to check out 201 again though
01[13:56] {@Threei} Short Setup: SPY  .80 break
01[13:56] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[13:56] {@Threei}  probably two-sided
[13:56] {nemo} I think it checks 201 first
01[13:57] {@Threei}  with this dried up volume, hard to tell, but it's a strong possibility
01[13:57] {@Threei}  so twi-sided
[13:58] {nemo} sheesh
[13:59] {nemo} is the VXX conscious?
01[13:59] {@Threei}  doesn't look this way
[14:00] {nemo} aapl weak putting pressure on RUT and Qxs
[14:00] {nemo} Qs
01[14:00] {@Threei}  something weird happens in Ukraine negotiations
01[14:00] {@Threei}  sides pre-announce tomorrow's cease-fire and peace sttlement talks
01[14:00] {@Threei}  but the conditions that Russia set can not be accepted by Kiev
01[14:02] {@Threei}  don't know, they might be trying to win some time to get support from NATO or regroup for a new threat, regular Russianarmy
01[14:02] {@Threei}  increased chatter of 9/11 attack though keeps market from getting all happy
01[14:04] {@Threei}  here comes 201
01[14:05] {@Threei}  anyway, half out here
[14:07] {nemo} hahahaha
[14:07] {nemo} sheesh
[14:07] {nemo} keep ur head on a swivel
01[14:08] {@Threei}  that's what partial/trail is for
01[14:08] {@Threei}  protects you from these sharp turns of destiny
01[14:09] {@Threei}  hmmm... nice new nick for nemo
[14:09] {nemo} ?
01[14:09] {@Threei}  sharp turn of destiny
[14:09] {nemo} bit cumbersome
01[14:10] {@Threei}  SToD then
01[14:10] {@Threei}  and be thankful it does include that small o
[14:10] {nemo} cute
01[14:10] {@Threei}  that's me... cute
06[14:11] * nemo faints
01[14:11] {@Threei}  hehe
01[14:32] {@Threei}  breakdown
01[14:32] {@Threei}  .80 break idea was right
01[14:36] {@Threei}  look at VXX
01[14:36] {@Threei}  woke up suddenly
[14:49] {nemo} indexes going for yesterday's lows
01[15:00] {@Threei}  no news
01[15:00] {@Threei}  sharp dive
01[15:10] {@Threei} Long Setup:  SHLD  .10 break hl
01[15:10] {@Threei}  If holds  33
01[15:19] {@Threei}  wow VXX
01[15:19] {@Threei}  I need nemo to explain this
01[15:21] {@Threei}  meh'
01[15:26] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  116 break
01[15:26] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[15:38] {@Threei}  nah
[15:46] {dino} out mitk calls from earlier, +.30/+19%
01[15:47] {@Threei}  wtg
[15:47] {dino} ty
01[15:47] {@Threei}  ok guys, thank you, have a good evening
01[15:47] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:47] {dino} couldn't borrow so went puts
[15:49] {dino} hclp blood today, hit 69 few days ago, watching it
[15:51] {dino} calling it a day, gn all
01[15:51] {@Threei}  you too

September-October 2014 Outlook: Going to Extremes

TradeTheNews.com  Going to Extremes

The headlines this summer - Russian weapons and troops magnifying the bloodshed in Ukraine, Hamas rocket attacks inviting a terrible reprisal from Israel, ISIS militants ravaging Iraq, a new civil war brewing in Libya, and the worst ever outbreak of Ebola in Africa - have done surprising little damage to market confidence and the expectation that the economic recovery will continue. The S&P500 notched a record high above 2,000, bond yields haven't budged off their recent lows, and commodities have showed almost no reaction to these geopolitical flare ups.

The next two months may see more obstacles placed on the wall of worry, but it's hard to say if events will send the markets in a new direction. After years of providing copious accommodation, global central banks are about to move in opposite directions, with some looking to add even more stimulus while others start to withdraw extraordinary accommodation. This divergence could be a trigger for a global retrenchment, especially when the markets decide it's time to start anticipating Fed tightening next year. Corporate events too can play a role, as firms need to confirm continued momentum in the economy when they report Q3 results in October. And of course the wrong geopolitical headline could turn market sentiment on a dime, particularly if the Ukraine crisis escalates to the point where Russia and NATO might butt heads. There is a low probability of an outcome that extreme, but at some point markets will find a trigger for shifting into a new phase, either reversing on the weight of too much negative sentiment or undergoing a revival of animal spirits that accelerates the recovery.

The Corporate Pendulum Swings

As traders return from summer vacation, key corporate news may shape the markets. In addition to earnings season in October, two highly anticipated corporate events in September may mark the decline of one tech giant and the ascendancy of another. The first is Apple's likely entry into the mobile payments space and the wearable device market on September 9th. Wearables would be the first new category Apple has entered that goes beyond the roadmap laid out by Steve Jobs and the scope of its success could set a tone for the stock of the world's largest company. If Apple's wrist computer, featuring notifications and NFC technology, becomes another device that people "didn't know they needed" it would create a new consumer category, but if it ends up as just a niche product it could reignite the talk that Apple has lost its visionary edge.

Just days after the Apple event, Alibaba will launch its massive US IPO on the NYSE. China's dominant e-commerce company has its tendrils in every corner of online selling and boasts extremely high margins that put US counterparts eBay and Amazon to shame. With China rapidly moving to overtaking the US as the world's largest economy, the Alibaba IPO in New York may come to symbolize the ascendency of emerging markets to an equal footing with developed economies. Alibaba is at the vanguard of a flood of IPOs expected in weeks ahead, which could weigh on broader markets as traders rotate out of other positions to invest in the new issues.

Politics In Extremis

Of the many bloody conflicts of 2014, the Ukraine crisis has exerted the most influence over the markets. More tough talk about expanding the sanctions regime against Russia will be heard at the NATO summit in Wales in the first week of September. President Obama will be in attendance and will visit Estonia during the trip to reinforce the US commitment to the mutual defense organization and especially the Baltic states if Moscow turns its attention to them. President Putin's response to more NATO rhetoric is difficult to predict, but he appears intent on continuing the Ukraine conflict and may gain more leverage as winter approaches and Western Europe seeks to keep Russian gas flowing uninterrupted.

For his part, President Obama has the look of someone who is worn out by the succession of geopolitical crises he has faced, not to mention the obstructionist policies of his adversaries at home. This weariness may have contributed to his recent gaff about having "no strategy yet" for dealing with ISIS in Syria, a poor choice of words that Republicans will undoubtedly capitalize on as the election season heats up. By late October it may be clear whether the GOP will gain enough seats to take control of the Senate, which could bring the acrimony between the White House and Congress to a whole new level.

The biggest European ally of the US may get a taste of its own standoffishness about tighter bonds with its neighbors on September 18th, when Scotland holds its referendum on the question of independence from the United Kingdom. If a simple majority of the votes cast are in favor of independence, then Scotland would break from the UK after a process of negotiations with the government in London. The 'yes' vote has consistently polled below 50%, though there is always a chance that a late surge of Scottish nationalism will tip the vote in favor of independence. In that event, the UK economy and markets could be subject to significant gyrations as politicians decided how to handle the tricky issues of separation ranging from EU membership to currency to pensions.

Brazil goes to the polls for a general election on October 5th, though the next president will likely not be determined until the run-off three weeks later. The incumbent, Dilma Rousseff, has seen her popularity sag along with the economy, also hurt by fallout from the national soccer team's failure to win the World Cup after the country went to great expense to host the event. The anti-Rousseff vote seems to be growing, with her challenger from the other major leftist party, Marina Silva, pulling ahead in polls. Market watchers would prefer a win by the right-leaning PSDB candidate, Aecio Neves, but he is now polling in third place, and PSDB members are indicating they would throw their support behind Silva in a run-off election against Rousseff.

Dove and Dover

The economic recovery of the last five years has been built, with varying degrees of success, on a cushion of central bank largess. Despite all the stimulus that has already been put in place more may be on the way in Europe and Asia, even as the Fed and Bank of England are starting to draw up plans for an exit strategy from accommodation.

The ECB appears to be moving ever closer to launching its own form of quantitative to boost credit availability and avert a Japan-style deflation spiral. Increasingly it is a question not of if but when, as ECB chief Draghi recently noted the bank has made significant progress in laying the technical groundwork for an ABS purchase program. Mr. Draghi has never been one to rush into a new program, however, and it seems he would prefer to wait to see the impact of the targeted LTRO program and have the bank asset quality review (AQR) squared away before tackling QE. That would mean further action would come only after October.

Since announcing new TLTROs in June, the ECB has been jawboning the market, which has worked to some extent on the back of US Fed providing so much liquidity. But with the Fed ending its QE program in October and starting to consider normalization of policy, it may force the ECB to move up its timetable for action on its own asset purchase program. Many ECB watchers may now be disappointed if the central bank does not announce more policy action at the September 4th policy meeting.

Draghi may feel enough pressure from declining confidence data and monthly CPI readings creeping ever closer to zero to take a half measure at the September meeting. This could involve another small 10 basis point cut in the deposit rate (to negative 0.20%) or the launch of the ABS buying program, rather than outright purchases of government bonds. The ECB may have continued reservations about a full QE program because legal considerations raised by the German Constitutional Court could limit the ability of a European QE program to "shock and awe" markets the way the Fed did. Draghi may split the difference by outlining a QE program in September and making it operational later this year.

After the Fed's QE program is completely tapered out, the next question will be when rates will start to rise from near zero. In her inaugural FOMC press conference, Fed Chair Yellen ad-libbed that the first rate hike may come about six months after QE ends. She has since withdrawn that gaff and hammered home the point that rate moves will be tied to data, not the calendar. With employment data showing steady improvement and inflation still below target, market expectations of a mid-2015 rate lift off appear to be reasonable. In the months ahead, the Chair will likely focus on the themes of data-dependence and rates staying below historical norms for longer than in the past.

The Bank of England is even further along the path toward policy normalization than the US, as UK economic indicators are solid and the real estate market remains hot. Two members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted for a rate hike at the August meeting, the first such dissent since 2011, though rates are not expected to move just yet. Wage growth remains subpar, inflation has been coming in weaker than expected, and growth has cooled off a bit, leaving the BOE some room to wait before tightening, especially with the Scottish referendum hovering in the background.

More accommodation could be in the offing in Asia. A surprise slowdown in China manufacturing data in the first half of August has prompted fresh speculation about additional policy stimulus from Beijing. August manufacturing PMIs showed slippage, taking them dangerously close to contraction. In the wake of this data, the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology warned that the economy is faced with strong downward pressure, leading to some predictions that Beijing will have to do more than the sporadic 'mini-stimulus' packages it has provided this year. A Barclay's analyst suggested that this PMI slump could result in as many as two interest rate cuts by the PBoC before the end of 2014. That would be the first easing since mid-2012, the last time the central bank used rate policy to address a perceived slowdown in rate of economic growth.

Japan may also need a new round of stimulus after a run of tepid economic data in the wake of a controversial sales tax increase. Top government economic advisors have said that if Q3 GDP data (due out early November) come in weaker than expected it would warrant a delay in the second stage of the tax increase that is slated to take effect next spring. Reports also indicate that the government wants to set aside one trillion yen in funds from the 2015 budget to build a stimulus fund to support small business, presumably to help soften any further blow to the economy if PM Abe decides to proceed with a second consumption tax increase. As the momentum of the world's third largest economy wanes, expectations have grown that the Bank of Japan could cut its growth forecast for the fourth time this year at its October policy setting meeting, which could poise the BOJ for more loosening of monetary policy.

The Outer Limits

Markets have seen some new extremes in recent months, and there is a sense that eventually something has got to give. The S&P500 and DJIA have visited new all-time highs, and most analysts believe the indices are not over-extended yet. Meanwhile treasury yields remain very low, not yet anticipating Fed tightening, while European government bonds are largely at record lows ahead of the ECB taking out the bazooka again.

In the currency market, the greenback which rallied against the yen last year, has recently reversed its weakness against the euro as well, coming off of three-year lows. Some bold analysts are now forecasting that Draghi fulfilling his pledge to do "whatever it takes" to save the common currency will, within a few years, take the dollar/euro to parity, a condition not seen since 2002, the year euro notes and coins first went into circulation.

September is historically the worst month for stocks, though out of the last ten a majority of Septembers have shown solid performance. October is hung with the moniker of the month of crashes, but in recent years the "October surprise"-type events have developed early in the year (e.g. Fukushima, Arab Spring, Ukraine crisis). That does not rule out a 'black swan' this autumn, or a cluster of market events coalescing into a sentiment changing moment.

The obvious jarring events to watch for are Russia declaring an open war in Ukraine or a major terrorist attack (brought into focus by Britain raising its terror alert level in late August). The fallout from stronger sanctions against Russia could hurt Europe enough to push it back into a mild recession (already seen in Italy). At the opposite extreme, peace could suddenly break out in Ukraine, lifting the weight of the Russian menace off of the market outlook.

Markets reaching new extremes could also tip sentiment. Stocks may soon stretch multiples too far if Q3 results disappoint. Meanwhile, continued dollar strengthening could exert more downward pressure on oil prices, which would in turn put pressure on the energy sector, creating another drag on the broader equity market.

US treasury yields are eventually expected to rise in anticipation of the Fed starting the long process of normalization, but many questions arise from this notion: will the bond vigilantes emerge from hibernation and force the Fed to act faster? How will higher UST yields influence other markets, particularly European bonds that are in many cases at historic lows, with the peculiar condition of EU peripheral debt often yielding less than USTs?

In the meantime, markets may keep pushing out to new extremes. Historically, markets typically don't start pulling back until a few months ahead of rate tightening, so the risk-on environment may have another six months or more to run before reaching that catalytic moment.



CALENDAR (based on Eastern Time Zone)
SEPTEMBER
1: Various EU Manufacturing PMI readings
2: UK Construction PMI; US ISM Manufacturing PMI; China Non-Manufacturing PMI
3: UK Services PMI; EU Retail Sales; US Factory Orders; BOJ Policy Statement
4: BOE Policy Statement; ECB Policy Statement; US Trade Balance; US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; NATO Summit in Wales (Sept 4-5)
5: US Payrolls and Unemployment

7: Japan Final Q2 GDP
8: China Trade Balance; German Trade Balance; BOJ Minutes
9: UK Manufacturing Production
10: China CPI and PPI
11:
12: EU Industrial Production; US Retail Sales; Preliminary UofM Consumer Confidence
13: China Industrial Production

15: US Industrial Production
16: UK CPI; German ZEW Economic Sentiment; US PPI
17: BOE Minutes; UK Unemployment; US CPI; FOMC Policy Statement and Press Conference
18: UK Scottish Independence Vote; UK Retail Sales; US Housing Starts and Building Permits; Philly Fed Index; Japan Trade Balance
19:

22: US Existing Home Sales
23:
24: US New Home Sales; China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
25: Various EU Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI readings; German Ifo Business Climate; US Durable Goods Orders
26: US Final Q2 GDP

29: US Pending Home Sales; Japan Tokyo CPI; Japan Retail Sales; Japan Industrial Production
30: German Retail Sales; UK Final Q2 GDP; EU Flash CPI Estimate; EU Unemployment; US Consumer Confidence; China Manufacturing PMI

OCTOBER
1 (Wed): Various EU Manufacturing PMI readings; US ISM Manufacturing PMI
2: UK Construction PMI; ECB Policy Statement; China Non-Manufacturing PMI
3: UK Services PMI ; EU Retail Sales; US Payrolls and Unemployment; US Trade Balance; US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

5: Brazil general elections
6: German Factory Order
7:
8: China Trade Balance (tentative); FOMC Minutes; BOJ Policy Statement (tentative)
9: German Trade Balance; UK Trade Balance; BOE Policy Statement; BOJ Minutes
10: UK Manufacturing Production

13: UK Unemployment
14: UK CPI; German ZEW Economic Sentiment; China CPI and PPI
15: US Retail Sales; US PPI
16: EU Final CPI; Philly Fed Index
17: US Housing Starts and Building Permits; ECB Bank Stress Test Results (tentative)

20: UK Retail Sales; Japan Trade Balance; China Q3 GDP; China Industrial Production
21: US Existing Home Sales
22: BOE Minutes; UK Prelim Q3 GDP; US CPI; China HSBC Flash Manufacturing
23: Various EU Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI readings
24: US New Home Sales

26: Brazil Presidential run-off election
27: German Ifo Business Climate; US Pending Home Sales; Japan Retail Sales
28: US Durable Goods Orders; US Consumer Confidence; Japan Tokyo CPI
29: German CPI; FOMC Policy Statement (final taper)
30: German Retail Sales; US Advance Q3 GDP
31: EU Flash CPI Estimate; EU Unemployment; China Manufacturing PMI

TradeTheNews

Sept 03 2014

Trading becomes easier by day. Many nice trades, ranging from 1:3 to scalps, easily overwhelming stops. Most good ones on a short side although some longs were nice too.

Session Time: Wed Sep 03 00:00:00 2014
[09:00] {dino} gm
01[09:00] {@Threei}  dino :)
01[09:13] {@Threei}  roulette of headlines
01[09:13] {@Threei}  ageed on ceasefire - didn't agree - spoke about it - didn't speak - discussed first steps
[09:18] {RonS} howdy y'all
01[09:19] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:19] {troub} good morning
[09:19] {RonS} such a putz:  Obama: 'We will not accept Russia's occupation and illegal annexation of Crimea, or any part of Ukraine'
01[09:19] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:20] {@Threei}  so they won't... find me anyone in Russia who cares {G}
[09:22] {RonS} New Canada oil pipeline already turning into Keystone 2.0: http://bloom.bg/1lFyqXb
01[09:24] {@Threei}  fight is relentless
01[09:25] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -INFI +37% (forms strategic partnership with ABBV for Duvelisib)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -ISNS +34% (momentum)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -CNQR +8.3% (reportedly considering sale of the company & has reached out to potential buyers)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -FDML +5.5% (separating powertrain & motorparts divisions into 2 separate public companies)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -MBLY +5% (positive comments from MS)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -FLEX +5% (receives approval for additional share repurchases of up to 20% outstanding)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -END -38% (decides not to make interest payments)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -GWRE -6.2% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -VNCE -4.5% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -DAL -4.5% (traffic, CFO comments at Cowen conference)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -EFC -4.5% (prices 8M common shares at $23.92/shr)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -CDW -3.1% (files 15M common stock shelf for selling holders)
[09:29] {dino} dal gap fill
[09:29] {dino} same w/gwre
[09:29] {RonS} traffic report at conference...
[09:29] {dino} and russ
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .65 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[09:33] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[09:33] {nemo} bottomed at yesterday's high
01[09:37] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .40 break
01[09:37] {@Threei}  too fast
01[09:37] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:40] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .95 break
01[09:40] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
[09:42] {dino} gwre sm s .50 bs hod
01[09:44] {@Threei}  FB short gave 1:3
01[09:44] {@Threei}  too bad it didn't give a chance to enter
[09:46] {nemo} TWTR
01[09:48] {@Threei}  meh VXX
01[09:49] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .05 break
01[09:49] {@Threei}  If holds  .95
[09:50] {nemo} spy iwm having trouble with vwap
01[09:51] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:53] {dino} gap and sit so far
[09:53] {nemo} coming in now
[09:55] {nemo} Draghi in the morning
01[09:56] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  28 break
01[09:56] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:56] {@Threei}  let's see if we can get real breakdown
[09:58] {dino} mbly
01[09:58] {@Threei}  Cramer mention
01[10:00] {@Threei}  (RU) European Union issues formal statement on additional sanctions on Russia, approves additional sanctions; as expected
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) JULY FACTORY ORDERS: 10.5% V 11.0%E
[10:02] {dino} added mbly puts
01[10:03] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .80 break
01[10:03] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[10:04] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:04] {nemo} too quick
[10:05] {dino} gwre stop -.35
01[10:08] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:10] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:10] {@Threei}  out
01[10:13] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .65 break
01[10:13] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[10:24] {@Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .45 break
01[10:24] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[10:25] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:27] {@Threei}  TWTR, quite a selloff
01[10:27] {@Threei}  gotta start sticking with shorts longer
01[10:28] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .30 break
01[10:28] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[10:30] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:35] {@Threei}  1:2
[10:35] {dino} kors sm l .12
01[10:39] {@Threei}  closd last part on a trail
[10:45] {RonS} the guy is dangerous:  President Obama days he wants to reduce ISIS to a "manageable problem." Somewhere, David Cameron and our allies are shaking their heads.
01[10:45] {@Threei}  sigh
[10:45] {nemo} mmmhhhh....I was thinking more along the lines of a grease spot
01[10:46] {@Threei}  meanwhile, there is a rift within ISIS about whether USA is manageable problem
[10:46] {RonS} lol
01[10:47] {@Threei}  what a disaster the whole foreign policy is
[10:47] {RonS} what truly perlexes me is how US jews can be democrats...just cannot understand it...
[10:47] {nemo} they started the NAACP
[10:47] {RonS} so what?
[10:48] {nemo} they have a history of working against their interests
[10:48] {dino} i understand you ron, makes no sense they are dmocrats
01[10:48] {@Threei}  mystery to me too
[10:49] {nemo} so...they're the chosen people?
[10:49] {nemo} damn, late on sndk
[10:49] {dino} mbly holding better than expected, may have to stomp it
[10:50] {RonS} the 3i approach?
[10:50] {dino} indeed
06[10:51] * @Threei hands dino 2x4
[10:51] {dino} ty
01[10:51] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  50 break
01[10:51] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[10:59] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:59] {@Threei}  (duh)
01[11:02] {@Threei}  Teachers might vote on whether to continue strike, union said
[11:03] {dino} there are plenty of new college teacher grads looking for jobs...
01[11:04] {@Threei}  fire them all
01[11:04] {@Threei}  (while ese can't hear me)
01[11:06] {@Threei}  beaituful... their banner says: "give us what we need so every child could succeed"
[11:10] {RonS} thinkin they didn't want to be sued...so used "could" instead of "can"...or...had ese phrase it...
01[11:11] {@Threei}  lol
[11:15] {dino} lol
[11:15] {dino} kors stop -.32
[11:17] {RonS} tom petty moment...
[11:23] {RonS} Most absurd comment yet- President Obama: We Must Organize the Arab World
[11:24] {RonS} wth...thought he was the community organizer...
01[11:24] {@Threei}  Arab World: oh, we can't wait to be organized by you
01[11:25] {@Threei} Short Setup: SPY  .80 break
01[11:25] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
[11:39] {dino} rprx drop
01[11:41] {@Threei}  1:2
01[11:41] {@Threei}  shorts relly work nicely
[11:42] {dino} rprx smr l .00
01[11:44] {@Threei}  1:3
01[11:44] {@Threei}  closed
[11:47] {RonS} good one 3i, thanks
01[11:47] {@Threei}  :)
[12:18] {dino} gj
01[12:20] {@Threei}  ty
[12:22] {RonS} clf
01[12:26] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .20 break
01[12:26] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[12:30] {@Threei}  1:1
[12:31] {dino} out mbly calls from earlier, +.60/+17%
01[12:33] {@Threei}  wtg
[12:33] {dino} ty
[12:45] {dino} may be a mistake, but leaving rprx on with 19.60 sale order. have to hop, golf match in 45 min
01[13:10] {@Threei}  FRANCE SUSPENDS DELIVERY OF WARSHIP TO RUSSIA
01[13:10] {@Threei}  wow
01[13:10] {@Threei}  they resisted it ever since Crimea
01[13:24] {@Threei} Short Setup: IWM  .90 break
01[13:30] {@Threei}  If holds  117
[13:40] {nemo} i shorted .94
01[13:41] {@Threei}  1:1
01[13:42] {@Threei}  I can feel it in my bones... trading becomes easier and easier by day
[13:43] {nemo} so doesn't senility
[13:43] {nemo} but yeah, things traded cleanly yesterday
01[13:53] {@Threei}  1:2
01[14:00] {@Threei}  beige book
01[14:01] {@Threei}  (US) FEDERAL RESERVE BEIGE BOOK: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY EXPANDED IN ALL REGIONS; WAGE PRESSURES ARE REPORTED IN SECTORS WITH SKILL SHORTAGES Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicated that economic activity has expanded since the previous Beige Book report; however, none of the Districts pointed to a distinct shift in the overall pace of growth.
01[14:24] {@Threei}  (CA) Canada Fin Min Oliver: not seeing any bubble in housing market
[14:48] {nemo} pretty low spy volume Draghi effect
01[14:56] {@Threei} Short Setup: SPY  .35 break
01[14:56] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
01[15:02] {@Threei}  1:1
01[15:26] {@Threei} Short Setup: SPY  .40 break
01[15:26] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[15:46] {@Threei}  half out
01[15:47] {@Threei}  stop .41
01[15:49] {@Threei}  closed
01[15:49] {@Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
[15:49] {nemo} The floor on IWM and SPY are the Weekly Pivots
01[15:49] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow

Sept 2 2014

First decent win of September. Notice btw how IWM is outperforming SPY. Tells you something?

Chart's courtesy of the brokerage

A few decent ones, a few stops - not much to write home about yet but volume seems to be picking up. 

Session Time: Tue Sep 02 00:00:00 2014
[08:52] {dino} gm 3i
01[08:52] {@Threei}  morning dino
01[08:59] {@Threei}  Russia Foreign Policy aide Ushakov stated that Putin comment that Russia could 'take Kiev in 2 weeks' to EU's Barosso was taken out of context. The aide also reiterated the official view of no Russian troops inside Ukraine
01[09:03] {@Threei}  Associated Press: Russian forces in major rebel cities
[09:05] {cosmo} Why such confusion about that?
01[09:05] {@Threei}  confusion?
01[09:06] {@Threei}  simply reyssian denial of the obvious
01[09:06] {@Threei}  russian
[09:07] {cosmo} do they have forces over the border or not as a lingering question is odd...
01[09:07] {@Threei}  they do but they don't admit it
[09:08] {cosmo} should be obvious one way or another in short order I'd think
01[09:08] {@Threei}  it's obvious
01[09:08] {@Threei}  they simply deny it
01[09:09] {@Threei}  just as they denied their forces in Crimea
[09:10] {cosmo} I know we have mexican forces already in So Cal...
[09:10] {dino} ukraine has captured some russian forces
01[09:10] {@Threei}  yeah, and they said "they simply lost their way and entered Ukraine by mistake"
[09:12] {cosmo} Actually they're mostly in southern Arizona...
[09:17] {cosmo} prec metels not happy
01[09:17] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:17] {@Threei}  -CPWR +14% (reported to be in advanced talks with unnamed private equity group)
01[09:17] {@Threei}  -NCLH +15% (confirms agreement to acquire Prestige Cruises Int'l for $3.03B in cash and stock)
01[09:17] {@Threei}  -EFUT +22% (C&U Group switches to eFuture omni-channel solution)
[09:17] {cosmo} silver will be cheap enough for bullets soon...
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -DGLY +17% (continued momentum
01[09:18] {@Threei}  that's when we will get all the werewolves
[09:18] {troub} good morning you all
01[09:18] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -CONN -28% (earnings)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -EXEL -53% (Cowen cuts to Market Perform from Outperform)
[09:18] {RonS} ditto
01[09:19] {@Threei}  rob :)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  b=n
01[09:19] {@Threei}  sorry
01[09:21] {@Threei}  poor EXEL
[09:22] {dino} drug failed
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  75 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:35] {@Threei}  no go
01[09:38] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .20 break
01[09:38] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:39] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:42] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .15 break
01[09:42] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
01[09:45] {@Threei}  *(US) AUG FINAL MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 57.9 V 58.0E
[09:45] {ese} gm
01[09:45] {@Threei}  ese :)
01[09:46] {@Threei}  market bounce time
01[09:46] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .80 break
01[09:46] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[09:48] {@Threei}  1:1  IWM
01[09:49] {@Threei}  1/4 more out
01[09:49] {@Threei}  CAT stop to .09
01[09:50] {@Threei}  1:2
[09:50] {ese} nice iwm call vad
01[09:50] {@Threei}  ty
01[09:50] {@Threei}  meh CAT
01[09:52] {@Threei}  will try for 1:4
[09:53] {dino} out feye calls from 8/19 +1.80/+50%
01[09:53] {@Threei}  nice
01[09:53] {@Threei}  1:3  IWM
[09:53] {dino} ty
01[09:55] {@Threei}  noticing how once again IWM is stronger than SPY?
[09:56] {nemo} yeah, they have to get iwm to new all time highs
01[09:59] {@Threei}  1:4
01[09:59] {@Threei}  over and out
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) JULY CONSTRUCTION SPENDING M/M: 1.8% V 1.0%E
01[10:00] {@Threei}  10:00 *(US) SEPT IBD/TIPP ECONOMIC OPTIMISM: 45.2 V 45.5E
01[10:00] {@Threei}  10:00 *(US) AUG ISM MANUFACTURING: 59.0 V 57.0E; PRICES PAID: 58.0 V 58.5E
01[10:01] {@Threei}  1:5
[10:05] {ese} L acad .51
[10:06] {ese} 06:00 [ACAD] Receives FDA breakthrough therapy designation for NUPLAZID (Pimavanserin) for Parkinson’s Disease Psychosis The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has granted Breakthrough Therapy designation to NUPLAZID more... - Source TradeTheNews.com
[10:07] {ese} ½ .65 +.14
[10:08] {ese} stop to break even .51
[10:09] {ese} out full .84 +.33
01[10:09] {@Threei}  wtg
[10:09] {ese} tks
[10:09] {troub} well done ese                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        
[10:09] {troub}                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      
[10:09] {troub}                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      
[10:09] {troub}                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
[10:09] {dino} geva drop
[10:12] {nemo} LVS
[10:20] {ese} L sm nclh .08
[10:24] {ese} ½ .21 +.13
[10:26] {dino} gj
01[10:36] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .60 break
01[10:36] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[10:39] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:42] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .20 break
01[10:42] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
[10:43] {ese} out full .40 nclh +.32
01[10:43] {@Threei}  nice
01[10:43] {@Threei}  you are in good shaoe for september ese
01[10:43] {@Threei}  shape
[10:45] {ese} need to....still on strike ...big rally in front of the legislature this morning at 9am....
[10:45] {ese} am outta here in 20min
[10:45] {ese} bid you all good bye cya tomorrow
[10:48] {RonS} lol...if ese came here and traded he could have paid for the whole raise they are asking for...
01[10:48] {@Threei}  that's a matter fo social fairness, you see :)
[10:49] {dino} so true
01[10:49] {@Threei}  no go
01[10:50] {@Threei}  folks with the best salaries and benefit package are on strike because they haven't got any raise in last X years
[10:51] {nemo} it's all about the kids
01[10:51] {@Threei}  annual salary equals annual income of average household in the province
[10:51] {RonS} bet the bennies are 65% of the salary...
[10:52] {RonS} not to mention the freakin time off...
[10:58] {dino} athm sm l .75
01[10:59] {@Threei}  rinse
[11:03] {RonS} lol...  Will It Be September or Sep-timber
01[11:09] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .60 break
01[11:09] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[11:14] {@Threei}  come on already FB
01[11:14] {@Threei}  trigger and die
[11:24] {dino} out athm .45 ave, +.70
[11:26] {troub} great Dino
01[11:26] {@Threei}  wtg'
[11:27] {dino} ty
[11:27] {troub} tried to follow you but ran stop too tight.
[11:28] {dino} was down 12+ pts in 5 days, saw supp, so hit it
[11:28] {dino} got out too soon, but added calls w/common purchase
[11:29] {dino} gwph drop. pulp
[11:30] {dino} 80 has been strong supp
[11:31] {dino} showing gap around 77
[11:31] {dino} then 68
[11:37] {dino} out athm calls from earlier, +1.10/+25%
[11:37] {nemo} why don't you go play golf or something
[11:37] {nemo} play in traffic
[11:37] {nemo} diffuse some bombs
[11:37] {nemo} see how much voltage your body can handle
[11:37] {dino} :), lol
[11:38] {dino} that sob shot straight up
[11:38] {dino} look at that daily
01[11:46] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .35 break
01[11:46] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
[12:09] {dino} dsky spike
01[12:14] {@Threei}  let's trail VXX to .29
01[12:14] {@Threei}  no clarity in charts
[12:17] {nemo} indexes should come in a tad here
[12:17] {nemo} if not, look for vwap run
01[12:38] {@Threei}  grrr
01[12:45] {@Threei}  frikin VXX
01[12:56] {@Threei}  - NYSE volume 218M shares, about 2% below its three-month average; - NASDAQ volume 765M shares, about 4% above its three-month average
01[12:57] {@Threei}  volume starts picking up it seems
01[13:00] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .80 break
01[13:00] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[13:03] {@Threei}  change to .90 break
01[13:04] {@Threei}  If holds  51
[13:04] {dino} 07 red
01[13:12] {@Threei}  Justin Bieber faces assault, dangerous driving charges in Ontario
01[13:12] {@Threei}  Charges result after collision involving minivan and ATV on Friday
01[13:13] {@Threei}  maybe we still have a chance to reign this horrible creature?
[13:14] {RonS} lol...oil slipping, Brit sterling pounded...
01[13:22] {@Threei}  https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=4440241301975
01[13:23] {@Threei}  let's cover half TWTR
01[13:23] {@Threei}  .83
01[13:25] {@Threei}  1:1
[13:38] {nemo} I wouldn't expect them to let spy close under 200 today
[13:41] {RonS} hd hit on data breach
01[13:42] {@Threei}  [HD] Reportedly experienced an online security breach - Krebs Multiple banks say they are seeing evidence that Home Depot stores may be the source a massive new batch of stolen credit and debit cards that went on sale this morning in the cybercrime underground. Home Depot says that it is working with banks and law enforcement agencies to investigate reports of suspicious activity...There are signs that the perpetrators of this apparent breach may be the same group of Russian and Ukrainian hackers responsible for the data breaches at Target, Sally Beauty and P.F. Changs, among others.
01[13:45] {@Threei}  1/4 more TWTR
01[13:46] {@Threei}  1:2
01[13:46] {@Threei}  some things start working
01[14:18] {@Threei}  second journalist beheading by ISIS
[14:20] {nemo} adrenalin junkies
[14:21] {nemo} russians have the best solution for that stuff
[14:25] {nemo} Hey Dino you'll like this headline:  Tom Brady on How Long He'll Play Football: 'When I Suck, I'll Retire'
[14:29] {nemo} one could make an argument for fas short here stop above the high
[14:30] {nemo} nope spy going for vwap
01[14:30] {@Threei}  yeah
[14:30] {nemo} IWM gonna' test high of day
01[14:30] {@Threei}  not looking like short yet
[14:31] {dino} lol
[14:32] {dino} when he sucks, the jets will sign him
[14:33] {nemo} I don't think he'll ever play for the jets
[14:34] {RonS} unless giselle divorces him for a bunchen...
[14:34] {nemo} she's worth a helluva lot more than he is
[14:34] {nemo} short now brown cow?
[14:34] {nemo} wtf
[14:35] {nemo} summer trading cooked my brain
[14:36] {nemo} too much pressure sitting on it too
[14:38] {nemo} funny Ron, she spells it the German way, but pronounces it the French way
[14:38] {nemo} Gisele  is with a hard "G" like Gizele...Giselle is soft like "J"  jisselle
[14:51] {dino} adding sndk calls
[14:51] {dino} hclp interesting
[15:13] {nemo} FB
01[15:14] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .95 break
01[15:14] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
01[15:28] {@Threei}  ohmygodohmygodohmygod... teachers published the data about their poverty. They have had zero wage increase in 6 of the last 14 years
[15:28] {nemo} so in other words, they've had raises 8 of the last 14..wtf
01[15:29] {@Threei}  they put it online in all seriousness as an argument
[15:29] {nemo} they should all be shot
01[15:29] {@Threei}  I change my mind right away under the weight of this evidence
01[15:29] {@Threei}  https://scontent-a-sea.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpa1/v/l/t1.0-9/1620790_10152313237811860_4599977049428830106_n.jpg?oh=086eef61c297f810e3dcb8e35b4bc30a&oe=545E7EC8
01[15:14] {@Threei}  1:1
[15:32] {cosmo} hmm, minister...I could do that...
01[15:33] {@Threei}  absolutely
01[15:33] {@Threei}  deputy too
01[15:35] {@Threei}  just a scalp, TWTR... hoped for more
[15:35] {cosmo} ministers of funds maybe
01[15:35] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .35 break
01[15:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
01[15:48] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[15:48] {@Threei}  and no time for another one
[15:48] {nemo} bull market no fear
01[15:48] {@Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
01[15:48] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow
[16:01] {dino} gn