Monday, October 13, 2014

Oct 13 2014

Pullback entry on DAL hit by Ebola.


Could have cited many more plays as they were abundant. Beautiful trading day, with 1:2s and 1:4s all over. Bear market, as usual, works best for us, and October is traditionally our strongest month. 


Ahead of the Close Market Snapshot
Mon, 13 Oct 2014 15:46 PM EST

US Indices:
- Dow Jones -1.0%
- S&P500 -0.7%
- Nasdaq -1.1%

- Utilities, Financials, and select Basic Materials sectors are outperforming at the expense of Healthcare and Services. PGN is outperforming in Utilities, while Financials are on deck in the Q3 reporting season with C and JPM reporting Tues AM. CLF is sharply higher on China trade data, while NEM is tracking modestly higher gold prices with a 2% rise. Airlines DAL and UAL are down 6% and 8% respectively as Ebola worries predictably weigh on the travel sector.

Fixed-Income: US bond markets closed for holiday

Energy:
- WTI Nov crude oil $85.58; Front-month contract is off the morning lows after the bears made another run at the $84/brl mark. Diminishing pessimism over China growth in the wake of better than expected imports component of September trade data has sparked some short covering.

Metals:
- Spot Gold $1,232/oz; Week-long correction in precious metals is tracking the reversal in USD strength, with gold hitting a 4-week high above $1,237 in morning trade.
- Spot Silver $17.40/oz; Rebound in silver is slightly less pronounced, with last week's high of $17.70 remaining untested.
- Dec Copper $3.05/lb; Copper is up a modest 0.3%, adding to overnight gains that followed impressive China imports. Traders are watching last week's high / Sept low around $3.06.

Key Earnings at the close:
- none seen

Looking ahead to Asia session:
- Singapore GDP 20:00ET
- Australia NAB Business Confidence 20:30ET

TradeTheNews.com


Session Time: Mon Oct 13 00:00:00 2014

[09:02] {dino} gm
01[09:02] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:15] {jfjf64} gm
01[09:16] {@Threei}  jf :)
[09:17] {RonS} good morning everyone
01[09:18] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:20] {troub} good morning
01[09:21] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  [HLF] Herbalife moving to stop US distributors from using their own web sites to promote products - NY Post (update) Diet shake seller being probed over pyramid scheme accusations is banning independent websites run by its U.S. distributors and migrating distributors businesses to a corporate-controlled online hub (goherbalife.com).
[09:24] {nemo} should be a bit mellower today with bond market closed
01[09:24] {@Threei}  and Canada digesting turkeys
[09:25] {nemo} sounds like cannabilism to me
01[09:25] {@Threei}  lol
06[09:26] * nemo pats himself on the back
[09:26] {jfjf64} speakin canna any walkin dead fans
[09:26] {nemo} Where's the Bolshevik
[09:26] {nemo} I hate that zombie shit
[09:27] {jfjf64} I hated that shit to
[09:27] {jfjf64} now hooked
[09:27] {RonS} got bit?
[09:28] {nemo} hahahaha
[09:28] {jfjf64} y
06[09:28] * @Threei loads silver bullets while slanting at jf
[09:28] {jfjf64} lol
06[09:29] * nemo loads silver ball bearings in claymores
06[09:29] * @Threei hand garic over his neck and keeps wooden stakes near
01[09:30] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -IBIO +85% (Ebola momentum)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -DRL +60% (won $230M in Puerto Rico tax case)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -ATLS +25% (being acquired by TRGP in connection with APL/TRGP deal)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -LAKE +15% (Ebola momentum)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -APL +14% (being acquired by TRGP for $5.8B)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -ALNY +12% (reported 6-month Patisiran Phase II OLE study data)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -CSX +11% (rebuffed merger proposal from CP)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -JCP +6.2% (named Marvin Ellison CEO designate, effective Nov. 1)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -TKMR +5.4% (Ebola momentum)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -WLT +5.3% (iron ore price bounce following Chinese data)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -HIVE -18% (cuts Q3 EPS & Rev estimates)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -GPRO -2% (Silicon Valley Community Foundation disclosed 22% stake, could sell some shares in 2015)
06[09:30] * nemo puts garlic juice in chemical warheads
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  33 break
01[09:33] {@Threei}  fast...
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:1  
01[09:33] {@Threei}  sheesh IBIO
01[09:36] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CCL  .65 break
01[09:36] {@Threei}  If holds  .55 
01[09:38] {@Threei}  wow DAL
01[09:42] {@Threei}  Invalidated  
01[09:43] {@Threei}  If holds  FCX  .20 break
01[09:43] {@Threei}  If holds  .30 
01[09:43] {@Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .20 break
01[09:48] {@Threei}  1:1  
01[09:50] {@Threei}  1:2  
01[09:52] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .20 break
01[09:52] {@Threei}  change to .10
01[09:53] {@Threei}  If holds  32 
01[09:54] {@Threei}  Invalidated  
01[09:56] {@Threei}  got away
[09:56] {jfjf64} grrr
01[09:56] {@Threei}  a bit too hectic for a confident read
[09:57] {jfjf64} shack it off
01[09:57] {@Threei}  let's see if it goves us nice pullback and readable entry
01[09:58] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .10 break
01[09:58] {@Threei}  If holds  32 
01[09:58] {@Threei}  1:1  
01[10:00] {@Threei}  1:2 close enough
01[10:00] {@Threei}  trying for 1:3
01[10:00] {@Threei}  1:4
01[10:01] {@Threei}  1:3  
01[10:01] {@Threei}  hooked good entry :)
01[10:01] {@Threei}  1:4 baby
01[10:01] {@Threei}  out
[10:01] {jfjf64} nicely done
[10:04] {ese} morning...slept in just a little...too much wine yesterday
01[10:04] {@Threei}  hey ese
01[10:04] {@Threei}  missed couple good plays
[10:04] {nemo} wino bolshevik
[10:05] {ese} vad nemo
[10:05] {dino} emes sm l .01
[10:05] {nemo} I feel like that every morning ese
[10:05] {ese} i'll have you know nemo....i represent that remark
[10:06] {nemo} ese the "poster boy"
[10:08] {nemo} these he took near where I live.  too cute:  http://rockycrowe.zenfolio.com/p741443909
[10:10] {ese} cute....the five of them
[10:10] {nemo} where did you learn to count, Math teacher
[10:11] {ese} from vad....why
[10:11] {nemo} I see as many as 7
[10:11] {nemo} http://rockycrowe.zenfolio.com/p741443909/h20fba648#h20fba648
[10:12] {ese} bottom picture.....only five
[10:12] {nemo} not much on the algo yet.  What is is red
[10:13] {nemo} You guys can celebrate:  I'll be gone later this week
[10:14] {ese} clearer on that one......can see 7 now
[10:14] {nemo} iwm looks short if it stays below .90
[10:15] {jfjf64} nice nemo
[10:18] {jfjf64} heat is on
[10:19] {dino} out emes .99 -.02
[10:20] {dino} friday markets down -12 of last 16 trading days
[10:21] {jfjf64} ccl
[10:21] {dino} emes sm l .10
[10:22] {troub} Dino, big thanks emes in79.01 out 80.30
01[10:22] {@Threei}  wtg
[10:22] {dino} wtg
[10:27] {dino} emes stop
01[10:28] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .75 break
01[10:29] {@Threei}  If holds  .65 
01[10:29] {@Threei}  1:1  
[10:38] {dino} emes sm l .17
01[10:49] {@Threei} Short Setup: DAL  .80 break
01[10:49] {@Threei}  wow
01[10:49] {@Threei}  lol
01[10:49] {@Threei}  nevermind
[10:50] {jfjf64} too much tukey yest
01[10:50] {@Threei}  (RU) Russia President Putin meeting with WHO and reportedly pledges support for anti-smoking efforts
01[10:50] {@Threei}  oh good
[10:51] {RonS} artillery smoke?
01[10:51] {@Threei}  that one is fine
[10:57] {dino} out emes 80.28, +2.11
01[10:57] {@Threei}  gj
[10:58] {troub} excellent dino
[10:58] {dino} ty
[11:00] {dino} panw sm l .52
[11:09] {dino} out panw 90.00, +1.48
[11:15] {nemo} algo basically flat
01[11:19] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .10 break
01[11:19] {@Threei}  If holds  32 
01[11:24] {@Threei}  1:1  
[11:25] {ese} rdnt doin what it's suppose to +.08 so far
[11:25] {nemo} is that your blood/alcohol level?
[11:25] {ese} that too.......
[11:25] {nemo} lightweight
[11:25] {ese} lol
01[11:26] {@Threei}  lol
01[11:26] {@Threei}  1:2  
[11:26] {ese} need some help here though.....assigning a price target for this this......
[11:27] {nemo} you're such a paradox ese
01[11:27] {@Threei}  this rodent?
[11:27] {ese} 10.00 seems reasonable to me for this one....last swing low on it was approx 4
[11:27] {nemo} a bolshevik that walks pickets lines to get a raise, and plays the stockmarket
[11:27] {ese} lol
[11:27] {RonS} and goes rad...
[11:28] {ese} keeps you on your toes man
01[11:28] {@Threei}  plays mean drum too
[11:28] {ese} oh ya!!!!1
01[11:28] {@Threei}  and takes his coffee intravenously
01[11:28] {@Threei}  beat that, nemo
[11:29] {ese} and chocolate with a hypodermic needle
01[11:29] {@Threei}  and runs a band where male audince freezes on a spot when sees his female singers
01[11:29] {@Threei}  just ask dptl
[11:30] {ese} lol
01[11:30] {@Threei}  I mean, http://www.themidnights.com/images/gallery-new-large/A7148335.jpg
01[11:31] {@Threei}  or http://www.themidnights.com/images/gallery-new-large/A7148365.jpg
[11:31] {nemo} is that still the lineup?
01[11:31] {@Threei}  man, I am a good photographer... :)
01[11:31] {@Threei}  (when I have such models)
[11:31] {nemo} who's the fat guy at the end?
[11:32] {RonS} lol
[11:32] {ese} magazine article comin out on me and my band in Nevember with Cella Magazine
[11:32] {ese} http://www.cellamagazine.com
[11:32] {nemo} cool
[11:32] {ese} as it cycles through it's the last 2 frames...Vic High band then the Midnights
01[11:33] {@Threei}  btw, ese... take a look at the photo at the top of your page
[11:33] {RonS} ese, watch rdnt for a rollover...
01[11:33] {@Threei}  see anything suspicious?
[11:34] {ese} on my band website?
01[11:34] {@Threei}  yes
[11:34] {ese} tks Ron
01[11:34] {@Threei}  the panoramic one
01[11:34] {@Threei}  The volatility continues this morning in heavy trading volume. More positive and less flattering news has clashed over the Asia and Europeans sessions, with markets jibing in the wake of the strong China September export data, soft German wholesale prices and the first person-to-person Ebola transmission in the US.
[11:35] {ese} yes....you photo shopped the lead singer in if i remember 
01[11:35] {@Threei}  yup... at no point all 4 were on the scene at the same time :)
01[11:35] {@Threei}  but the task was to present the whole band
01[11:35] {@Threei}  so I combined a few
[11:36] {ese} looks great
[11:40] {ese} Hey Ron....what are you looking at technically thats giving you that roll over feeling with rdnt
[11:41] {RonS} was seeing it hit the new highs...last time it did it gave it up....
[11:41] {ese} ya
[11:41] {RonS} they take pictures fer chissakes...
[11:42] {RonS} +r
01[11:46] {@Threei} Short Setup: DAL  32 break
01[11:46] {@Threei}  If holds  .10 
01[11:48] {@Threei}  stop .06
01[11:48] {@Threei}  1 cent from 1:1
[11:49] {RonS} horseshoes now?
01[11:49] {@Threei}  hmm?
[11:50] {ese} out ½ rdnt .05 +.20 
[11:50] {RonS} gj
[11:50] {ese} tks....thought i'd heed your roll over advice
[11:51] {RonS} lol...opens at $10 tomorrow...
[11:51] {ese} lol....always....never go broke though taking a profit
01[11:53] {@Threei}  1:1  
[11:58] {jfjf64} die already
01[12:02] {@Threei}  1:2  
[12:07] {jfjf64} common vg stomp it
01[12:07] {@Threei}  1:3  
01[12:09] {@Threei}  almost 1:4
01[12:09] {@Threei}  I am out
[12:10] {jfjf64} ty
01[12:10] {@Threei}  yw
01[12:10] {@Threei}  100% day so far?
[12:10] {jfjf64} shhh
01[12:17] {@Threei}  was that a perfectly timed exit or what
[12:17] {jfjf64} you bet
[12:50] {RonS} KIEV: Russian troops pull back from Ukraine's border: http://bloom.bg/1sxKUkx
[12:51] {RonS} ...gone looking for smokes?
01[12:51] {@Threei}  they do that for a third time
01[12:51] {@Threei}  most of it is just rotation
01[12:52] {@Threei}  some of it is pretending tension is off
01[12:57] {@Threei}  overall, Putin has so far what he wanted - frozen conflict, instability in Ukraine and nearing winter with his hand on gas spigot
01[12:58] {@Threei}  he can afford some pause now, to try and take off the sting of sanctions
[13:17] {nemo} interesting on algo...nothing really on red side, but as soon as buying dried up, indexes head down
[13:48] {nathan} hi gents
01[13:48] {@Threei}  hey nathan
[13:48] {nemo} hombre
[13:48] {nathan} que pasa nemo!
[13:48] {nemo} Yo soy bueno
[13:48] {nemo} y tu?
[13:49] {nathan} bien, bien
[13:56] {nathan} how was the morning?
01[13:57] {@Threei}  you don't want to know
01[13:57] {@Threei}  100%, 1:4s and 1:3s
[13:57] {nathan} yeah better not to ask
[13:57] {nathan} same i tell to my wife
[13:57] {jfjf64} bueno
[13:58] {nathan} wow
01[13:58] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  36 break
01[13:58] {@Threei}  If holds  .90 
01[13:59] {@Threei}  Invalidated  
[14:01] {jfjf64} .95
[14:01] {jfjf64} }?:
01[14:01] {@Threei}  nah
01[14:01] {@Threei}  no clear setup
[14:01] {jfjf64} k
01[14:02] {@Threei}  maybe on pullback now
01[14:02] {@Threei}  .80 was good but way too fast
01[14:02] {@Threei}  wouldn't be able to alert in time
[14:02] {nathan} what PORDER mean?
[14:03] {nemo} must be vad speak
[14:03] {nathan} i got it in the message console when i send the order
[14:03] {nemo} don't know
[14:04] {nathan} weird, i'll ask mr know it all
[14:04] {nemo} might mean "pending"
[14:04] {nemo} P Order
[14:05] {nathan} might be
01[14:13] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .50 break
01[14:14] {@Threei}  If holds  .40 
01[14:16] {@Threei}  (EU) France Fin Min: Europe faces the risk of a Japan-style period of deflation
01[14:20] {@Threei}  1:1  
01[14:58] {@Threei}  eod should be panicky
01[14:58] {@Threei}  watching for bounce to short
[14:59] {jfjf64} dal getting hit
01[15:06] {@Threei} Short Setup: CCL  .40 break
01[15:06] {@Threei}  If holds  .50 
01[15:15] {@Threei} Short Setup: IWM  105 break
01[15:15] {@Threei}  If holds  .10 
01[15:17] {@Threei}  1:1  CCL 
01[15:18] {@Threei}  1:1  IWM 
[15:18] {dino} tllp drop
[15:19] {dino} sm l .40
01[15:22] {@Threei}  1:2  CCL 
[15:22] {jfjf64} bueno
01[15:22] {@Threei}  1:2  IWM 
01[15:23] {@Threei}  bear market, how I love thee
01[15:23] {@Threei}  (I sound horribly nemo-like, don't I?)
[15:23] {jfjf64} never
[15:24] {jfjf64} that wd be horrible
01[15:24] {@Threei}  scares me too
[15:24] {jfjf64} he must be sllepin
[15:24] {jfjf64} no comment
01[15:25] {@Threei}  he is jujst reloading those silver bullets
01[15:26] {@Threei}  putting cross on his neck... pours holy water in the bottles...
[15:26] {RonS} picturing nemo pouring in to several silver shot glasses...
[15:26] {nathan} cya tomorrow
[15:26] {jfjf64} lake
01[15:26] {@Threei}  happy nathan?
[15:26] {jfjf64} big pop
[15:26] {nathan} yeah
01[15:26] {@Threei}  :)
[15:26] {nathan} happy ending
[15:26] {nathan} :-)
[15:27] {jfjf64} ahh
[15:27] {jfjf64} yes bueno ending
[15:27] {nathan} hehehehe
[15:27] {nathan} have fun
[15:28] {ese} catch ya'll tamara......vad cya later
01[15:28] {@Threei}  yes :)
[15:30] {dino} looks like down 13 of 17 in the making
[15:30] {jfjf64} twtr
[15:30] {jfjf64} getting hit
01[15:30] {@Threei}  panic :)
[15:31] {jfjf64} yes
[15:32] {jfjf64} wow
[15:32] {jfjf64} Columbus day sale
[15:32] {dino} tllp stop
[15:43] {dino} call me crazy, but w/dji -5.4%, s/p -6.5%, naz -8.2% gut says snap bake coming soon
01[15:43] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .40 break
01[15:43] {@Threei}  I agree
[15:43] {dino} snap back too
01[15:43] {@Threei}  If holds  .30 
01[15:44] {@Threei}  nope, not yet
[15:44] {cosmo} Columbus was a fraud...that's why the sell off...:)
01[15:44] {@Threei}  ah
01[15:44] {@Threei}  makes sense
[15:45] {cosmo} people waking up ya know...
01[15:45] {@Threei}  good thing they do it so timely
[15:46] {RonS} ...carried the first ebola to the new world...
01[15:46] {@Threei}  lol
[15:46] {cosmo} took back stuff too
[15:46] {nemo} got 10 people on a plane at Logan with flu like symptoms
01[15:46] {@Threei}  Ebola: thank you Columbus, how wpuld I find the new land to spread on without you
[15:46] {dino} dji gap around 16242
[15:47] {dino} s/p 1844
01[15:47] {@Threei}  (US) Air Emirates plane surrounded at Boston's Logan Airport, reportedly up to ten passengers experiencing flu-like symptoms (possible Ebola) - local press @MassCommNetwork: "Boston, MA - Hazmat - Boston Logan Airport Terminal E, U/D Hazmat called for 6-7 people who were or became sick on an United Emirates flight"
[15:47] {cosmo} gotta keep the global geen pool strong
01[15:47] {@Threei}  - Officials do not think anyone on Emirates flight 237 recently visited West Africa, but are still taking Ebola precautions - CDC has been notified, no one is being allowed on or off the flight, which is not pulling up to the jetway
[15:48] {nemo} western civilization is anti-evolutionary
[15:48] {nemo} it weakens the gene pool
[15:48] {dino} technically, yeah
[15:48] {nemo} then it's a simple, "yes" dino
[15:49] {dino} agreed
[15:49] {nemo} western medicine is anti-evolutionary
[15:49] {dino} except for intelligence, seems the gap is getting wider
01[15:49] {@Threei}  lol
[15:49] {nemo} no, intelligence is gapping...smart people breed together, dumb people breed more
[15:50] {nemo} 84% of the population is of average to less than average intelligence
01[15:50] {@Threei}  and wise do not breed at all
[15:50] {dino} what i said
[15:50] {dino} the dumb are getting dumber
[15:50] {dino} smart/smarter
[15:50] {nemo} that "except" threw me off
[15:50] {cosmo} those doing the dumbing are getting dumber too
[15:51] {dino} indeed cosmo, indeed
[15:51] {dino} heck of a last hour drop
01[15:51] {@Threei}  and dumb down the dumbing down techniques
[15:52] {dino} yes, the politicians want to make them even more dumb. its all about getting elected
[15:54] {jfjf64} good night all
[15:54] {jfjf64} ty vg
[15:55] {nemo} we're flirting with the lower channel line going back to end of 2013
[15:55] {nemo} 2013
[15:55] {nemo} 2012
[15:55] {nemo} shees
[15:55] {nemo} sheesh
[15:56] {dino} which is it, 13 or 12, shees or sheesh?
[15:56] {dino} :)
[15:56] {jfjf64} get silver bullets ready
[15:56] {jfjf64} walkers coming
[15:56] {nemo} 2012 sheesh
[15:56] {nemo} no jf...it's worse than that
[15:56] {jfjf64} agree
01[15:56] {@Threei}  OK guys, thank you all
[15:57] {nemo} at least zombies have brains

01[15:57] {@Threei}  have a great evening, see you tomorrow

Friday, October 10, 2014

Market Week Wrap-up

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Volatility Roller Coaster

Volatility shook global markets this week, severely testing the long equity rally. Wednesday saw the biggest one-day gain of the year in the S&P500 and Thursday marked the biggest decline in the index since April. The VIX volatility index moved sharply higher, topping 20 for the first time since February. The downside ramp got underway thanks to disastrous German industrial data published on Monday and Tuesday. German August factory orders data declined 5.7% m/m (the biggest m/m drop since early 2009), led lower by a big slide in overseas orders. German August industrial production declined 4% m/m, much more than expected. In addition, the IMF cut its 2014 global growth forecast to from +3.4% to +3.3% and its 2015 forecast from +4.0% to +3.8%. The DJIA and S&P500 were down 2.5% a piece by Wednesday morning, and participants read deeply between the lines of the FOMC minutes to uncover the possibility of the Fed holding off on rate hikes longer, driving a sharp reversal. The sugar high didn't last, and markets closed at the lows of the week (or much lower, in the case of the Nasdaq, which is right at its 200-day moving average). Ebola fear spread to new corners of the globe all week - the first confirmed transmission of the virus outside of Africa struck a nurse in Madrid - but nearly all the reports were false alarms. For the week, the DJIA dropped 2.7%, the S&P500 fell 3.1% and the Nasdaq lost 4.5%, the worst week for the tech index since May 2012. After the cash close on Friday, S&P futures saw another spike in volatility around the 1900 mark, rallying 6 handles before falling nearly 10 points in the final minute of index futures trade to close on the lows, portending more volatility in stock trading Monday, when the bond market is closed for Columbus Day.

The FOMC minutes were the real catalyst for Wednesday's short-lived rally, although the absence of any surprises in the report may have been the real good news. Many observers were drawn to comments in the minutes about the possible downside risks from dollar appreciation and weak global growth, although more savvy analysts pointed out that Fed Chair Yellen had also cited these as possible downside risks at her post-decision press conference at the September FOMC meeting. While it is true that explicit comments about the impact of dollar FX movements are somewhat rare for Fed officials, it's also worth noting that the moves in the dollar have been rather sharp recently. On Thursday, Fed Vice Chair Fischer said that the central bank must take into account the impact of the dollar on aggregate demand, and also said the issue would be discussed at the next FOMC meeting.

As portended last week, the IMF cut its 2014 global growth forecast to from +3.4% to +3.3% and its 2015 forecast from +4.0% to +3.8%, citing eurozone recession risks and emerging market slowdown. The outlook for the global economy has darkened and the IMF sees a more than one-in-three chance the eurozone will slide into its third recession since the financial crisis. The IMF maintained its China 2014 GDP forecast at +7.4% (nearly in line with China's official 7.5% forecast), and raised the US 2014 forecast from +1.7% to +2.2%.

On Thursday, WTI crude was drilled down to $83.55, its lowest level since last June and Brent tested lows last seen in late 2011, near $88/barrel. The slide continues to be driven by oversupply concerns and the possibility of flagging demand from battered economies, exacerbated by dollar strength. More proximate catalysts included the weekly API inventory report, which showed the biggest weekly build in crude inventories since April. Further analysis regarding Saudi Arabia's price reductions last week suggested the moves were aimed at boosting refinery margins in Asia and were not the opening move in an OPEC price war. Additionally, there was a report that crude priced below $90 a barrel would render drilling for oil in some shale formations uneconomical, starting with the Bakken region.

The crisis in Hong Kong dimmed considerably after the authorities in the enclave agreed to hold talks on Friday with student protestors over changes to the local election laws that had sparked the unrest. Just a day before talks were to begin, Hong Kong Chief Secretary Carrie Lam cancelled the negotiations claiming they had been undermined by attempts to start a new civil disobedience campaign to pressure the Hong Kong anti-graft agency to probe a payment of $6.4M to Hong Kong's leader C.Y. Leung. By Friday, large crowds of students were back out on the streets of Hong Kong.

Alcoa started the earnings season off on a positive note, reporting strong third-quarter earnings, boosted by higher aluminum prices. Both earnings and revenue widely topped expectations - EPS gained 70% y/y - while margins and operating income were up significantly. Most components of the firm's FY14 outlook were unchanged, although it notably brightened its forecast for North America commercial transport market.

Samsung Electronics disclosed ugly preliminary third quarter results. Samsung warned operating profits would fall 60% y/y as the company's smartphone sector struggles to cope with increased competition. Sales guidance was down more than 20% y/y. Mobile devices are the key driver of the company's profits, and its second quarter profit fell 20% y/y for much the same reasons.

Semi names were short circuited on Friday after Microchip Technology reportedly preliminary second quarter revenue results that fell short of both consensus expectations and the company's own guidance. The company said September is usually strong, but this year expected sales did not materialize. The revenue miss was led by China, where the September quarter is traditionally the strongest. Microchip CEO Sanghi said "We believe that another industry correction has begun and that this correction will be seen more broadly across the industry in the near future."

Shares of Sears Holding declined 13% this week on reports that insurance firms were cutting coverage of Sears trade credits, prompting at least one suppler to halt shipments to the company. Sears would neither confirm nor deny the report, and emphasized its significant financial flexibility. Elsewhere in the annals of insolvency, GT Advanced Technologies filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The firm is exiting its sapphire manufacturing operation after a failed effort to produce the material for Apple's smartphone screens.

Activist investors made a splash this week in shares of Darden and Apple. Carl Icahn renewed his call for Apple to launch a $100B tender offer for shares, as part of a long, rambling letter to Tim Cook that read mostly like fan fiction. Icahn said he had not sold a single share of his stake. Just a month after releasing its infamous slide deck detailing Olive Garden's corporate and culinary failures (too many breadsticks, no salt in the pasta pots), activist fund Starboard won its proxy fight with Darden and replaced all 12 of the company's directors with its own nominees.

After closing in on 1.2500 last week, the dollar eased up through Thursday morning, with EUR/USD trading almost back to the 1.2800 handle. The pair turned around and closed out the week around 1.2620. The 1.2400 level is a key psychological point for EUR/USD, as it was there that ECB President Draghi made his famous "whatever it takes" pledge back in July 2012.

The monetary policy statement from the Bank of Japan reiterated its overall economic assessment of "moderate recovery as a trend", but also lowered its view of industrial production. The BOJ cited inventory adjustment among the reasons for output "showing some weakness". One of the BOJ's more dovish voters, Sayuri Shirai, also added a dissent on the inflation component of the statement, calling for greater acknowledgement of an increasing number of price indicators turning flat. The dissent is symbolic in that this week's decision serves as a precursor to the late-October meeting, when the central bank will offer its semi-annual revisions to near-medium term projections for growth and inflation. Also of note in Japan, the government's economic officials have turned more mixed on the rapid depreciation of the Yen, citing more limited positive impact on exports against the negative implications for some of the domestic industries. USD/JPY has certainly heeded that change in sentiment, falling by its biggest weekly margin in over a year.

The Shanghai Composite returned from an extended break and finished the week flat. The mainland property sector remained supported by the latest PBoC measures to ease eligibility criteria for preferential "first home mortgages", but the focus next week will turn to September trade, lending, and inflation data. As Beijing prepares for the 4th party Plenum, the government's official 7.5% GDP target for 2014 is coming into question. Just this week, the World Bank lowered its China 2014 growth estimate to 7.4%, matching the forecast maintained by the latest IMF projections. China Academy of Social Sciences think tank also warned that 2014 GDP could slow to 7.3%, as the government accelerates "various reforms to move toward healthier growth." The latest Q3 GDP figures are scheduled to be released later this month on October 20th.

TradeTheNews.com

Oct 10 2014

A few stops, a few nice wins - last VXX trade for 1:5 saved the day making it profitable one. Overall, very nice week. Then again, October was always our strongest month.






[09:00] {cosmo} pre market healing into the open...
[09:00] {cosmo} me thinks
01[09:01] {@Threei}  so far...
[09:17] {dino} gm
[09:17] {troub} good morning
01[09:18] {@Threei}  dino, troub :)
[09:24] {RonS} ohayou gozaimasu...a little nippy out there...
01[09:24] {@Threei}  which language is that?
[09:24] {RonS} japanese
01[09:25] {@Threei}  cool... I need to learn that
[09:25] {cosmo} Formula 1 is in Russia this weekend...fwiw
01[09:26] {@Threei}  on tanks?
[09:26] {jfjf64} morning all
01[09:27] {@Threei}  jf :)
[09:27] {cosmo} They almost sound like tanks this year...
01[09:28] {@Threei}  SPY tried to gap and slid back to close
01[09:28] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -APT +35% (Ebola momentum)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -EXAS +34% (reimbursement pricing for Cologuard at high-end of expected range)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -SCMP +20% (settled patent litigation in US over AMITIZA)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -LAKE +17% (Ebola momentum)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -ALXA +17% (updated ADASUVE US commercial progress)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -OBCI +17% (Ebola momentum)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -CVEO +9% (Greenlight Capital disclosed 9.99% active stake)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -INFY +6% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -ISIS +5% (reported ISIS-SMN Rx Phase 2 studies in infants & childen)
[09:28] {RonS} mtw man it got whacked
01[09:29] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -PKY -25% (lowered H2 FY14 guidance)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -SZMK -14% (issued Q3 guidance and announced management changes)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -MTW -14% (cut guidance)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -VOXX -12% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -MCHP -10% (announced prelim Q2 numbers)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -MBLY -6.6% (in sympathy with TSLA announcement downturn)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -TSLA -5.5% (Model D announcement)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -JNPR -5% (guided Q3 lower)
01[09:30] {@Threei} Short Setup: DAL  .70 break
01[09:30] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[09:31] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:2
[09:34] {ese} mornin
01[09:34] {@Threei}  ese :)
[09:38] {nemo} nothing like a .45 1 min bar in the spy
[09:38] {dino} wow sndk
[09:38] {nemo} look intc
01[09:39] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .20 break
01[09:39] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
[09:40] {RonS} sndk prob off mchp report...
01[09:41] {@Threei}  no go
01[09:43] {@Threei} Short Setup: CCL  .20 break
01[09:43] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:43] {@Threei}  disregard
01[09:44] {@Threei}  wriong symbol
01[09:44] {@Threei} Short Setup: RCL  .90 break
01[09:44] {@Threei}  If holds  50
[09:45] {dino} sndk sm l .92
[09:45] {nemo} right at the 16 minute mark dino
[09:45] {jfjf64} .50
01[09:45] {@Threei}  59
[09:46] {dino} :)
01[09:46] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:46] {jfjf64} check the coffee
01[09:46] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:47] {@Threei}  1:3
01[09:48] {@Threei}  1:4
01[09:48] {@Threei}  I am so out
[09:48] {jfjf64} nice ty
01[09:48] {@Threei}  yw
[09:49] {dino} gj
01[09:50] {@Threei}  ty
[09:51] {dino} out sndk .52, +.60
01[09:53] {@Threei}  nice one
01[09:54] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MTW  .35 break hl
01[09:55] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
[09:55] {dino} wow emes in 40 days from 145 to 80
[09:56] {nemo} DAX building a bear flag
[09:57] {nemo} finiies strong
01[09:57] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:04] {dino} spy may want the 200 dma
01[10:10] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .40 break
01[10:11] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[10:11] {@Threei}  not yet
[10:11] {nemo} 74 test
01[10:19] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .50 break
01[10:19] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[10:20] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:27] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .10 break
01[10:28] {@Threei}  come on
01[10:29] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .20 break
01[10:29] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[10:30] {@Threei}  ok, we will never reverse
[10:30] {nemo} SPY gonna test 191
[10:31] {dino} this oil is funny, wait until putin cuts europe off of gas next month
01[10:34] {@Threei}  crap FB
[10:34] {dino} emes is a blood bath
[10:35] {nemo} too funny SPY bottom was the 23.6 retrace from the break of the 2008 high and this year's high
[10:37] {RonS} took fb small when it ticked over .20...at .18   sold .95  +.77  thanks 3i
[10:38] {dino} wtfg
01[10:38] {@Threei}  :)
[10:38] {dino} avgo blood
[10:38] {RonS} thing was pulp...no way was gonna go full lot
[10:39] {nemo} reshort in .50s nobody likely paying above vwap today
[10:39] {dino} avgo sm l .90
[10:40] {dino} sndk sm l .70
[10:41] {dino} for markets only down about 5%, lots of stock are down 20-40%
[10:42] {nemo} trannies been killed by oil
[10:42] {nemo} so much gets transported by rails
[10:50] {RonS} use Udderly Smooth here... it's greaseless
[10:51] {nemo} that may be a swing bottom
[10:52] {dino} out sndk .32, +.62
[10:53] {dino} feye sm l .55
[10:53] {dino} out avgo .01, +1.11
[10:55] {troub} excellent on all of them dino
[10:57] {dino} thx
[11:02] {dino} out feye .85, +.30
[11:03] {RonS} took avgo 69.85 out 71.45 +1.60  figured it would get close to vwap...
[11:03] {dino} wtg
[11:04] {RonS} thanks and thanks...
[11:04] {dino} i chickened out on the break down break at 71
[11:04] {nemo} this is the 23.6 on avgo
[11:05] {dino} intc l .01
[11:06] {dino} calls too, intc
01[11:07] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .55 break
01[11:07] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
01[11:08] {@Threei}  ok, "they" must be watching over my shoulder today
[11:08] {nemo} algo basically flat
[11:13] {nemo} ADBE
01[11:22] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .60 breal
01[11:22] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[11:25] {@Threei}  With storage facilities nearly full across Western Europe, the European Union’s major economies are unlikely to face a serious energy crisis.
01[11:29] {@Threei}  valid again
01[11:30] {@Threei}  I probably better go to sleep
[11:30] {jfjf64} lol
[11:31] {RonS} "unlikely"  Dusty Springfield statement?
[11:31] {RonS} https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAdTsAKvVTU
[11:31] {dino} out intc .22, +.21
[11:31] {RonS} gj, that thing is thicker than Aretha Franklin
[11:32] {dino} lol, yeah, don't usually trade the thick gals
[11:32] {jfjf64} funny ronnie
[11:32] {RonS} friend i had called them "flower girls"...
[11:33] {dino} ugh, i think i get that
[11:33] {RonS} lol, ya if any really need to know need to pm me...
[11:35] {RonS} dino ptct first secondary in a long time that is not recapturing the price:  36.25
[11:38] {dino} ok, on screen
01[11:38] {@Threei}  It's been a wild ride today as US equities dip into and out of negative territory. With volatility running very hot, the VIX has popped above 20 for the first time since early February. Utilities and consumer staples names are among the only names holding up as traders seek safe havens. Conversely, momentum tech names have been hammered, with TWTR and FB down 8% and 4%, respectively, at their worst levels earlier this morning
01[11:38] {@Threei}  The greenback has recovered most of the losses that followed the FOMC minutes and continues to gain ground, with EUR/USD headed right back toward the 1.2500 handle. Despite comments in the minutes, many analysts are saying it would be hard to make the case that the dollar was overvalued at this stage.
[11:54] {ese} Have a great thanksgiving weekend all.....catch you on the flip side....am still holdin on to my position in rdnt....I smell money here....average is now .85
01[11:54] {@Threei}  wait ese
[11:54] {dino} cya ese
01[11:55] {@Threei}  see dcc
[11:55] {ese} cya dino
[12:10] {nemo} nothing on weak side, only strong side
01[13:01] {@Threei}  [OIH] Oil service holders recoup losses as oil futures rebound - WTI is now up more than $2 from the recent 2-year lows and Brent is back above $90- Refiners, drillers, integrated names all seeing some buying
01[13:15] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .85 break
01[13:15] {@Threei}  .c .75
01[13:15] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
01[13:17] {@Threei}  1:1
01[13:19] {@Threei}  1:2
01[13:19] {@Threei}  1:3
01[13:23] {@Threei}  1:4 close enough
01[13:23] {@Threei}  out .23
01[13:23] {@Threei}  just when you thought I was completely useless
[13:27] {nathan} hi gentelmen
01[13:27] {@Threei}  hey nathan
[13:27] {dino} whippy again
01[13:27] {@Threei}  couldn't you connect 15 min earlier?
[13:28] {nathan} i wished
01[13:28] {@Threei}  just got VXXfrom 32.85
[13:28] {nathan} did u left something
[13:28] {nathan} really?
01[13:28] {@Threei}  [13:15] {@Threei} Long Setup: VXX .85 break
[13:28] {nathan} nice breakout
[13:38] {nathan} look u took vxx now?
01[13:41] {@Threei}  ?
[13:42] {nathan} nevermind
01[13:58] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .10 break
01[13:58] {@Threei}  If holds  106
01[14:00] {@Threei}  valid
01[14:03] {@Threei}  sigh
[14:08] {nathan} c'mon IWM
[14:11] {RonS} outta here early...good weekend to all...ciao
01[14:11] {@Threei}  take care ron
[14:11] {nathan} cio Rons
01[14:13] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .20 break
01[14:13] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[14:18] {@Threei}  1:1
[14:18] {nathan} thx 3i
01[14:19] {@Threei}  yw... not over yet
01[14:19] {@Threei}  this might turn into nice panic
01[14:19] {@Threei}  1:2
[14:22] {dino} out vxx +.20, ty vad
01[14:22] {@Threei}  :)
[14:23] {jfjf64} ty vg see all Monday great week
01[14:23] {@Threei}  take care jf
[14:29] {dino} lll spike
[14:29] {dino} sm s .55
[14:30] {dino} cov flat
[14:31] {dino} sm s 114.12
[14:31] {dino} f#@k
[14:32] {dino} ok cov 113.50, +.62
[14:32] {dino} pulp
[14:34] {dino} smr s 114.22
[14:35] {dino} stop -.60
[14:36] {dino} smr s 115.98
[14:36] {dino} cov .80, +.18 things all over the tape
01[14:36] {@Threei}  no kidding
[14:38] {dino} last try smr s 115.61
01[14:39] {@Threei}  ISIS is a few miles from Bagdad
[14:39] {dino} all those years and work for nothing because obummer wanted to totally pull out
[14:41] {dino} stop lll .20 -.59
[14:43] {dino} calling it a week, thx all
01[15:04] {@Threei}  eod if likely to produce more panic
01[15:04] {@Threei}  watching for pullback entry, VXX
01[15:04] {@Threei}  if = is
[15:07] {nemo} not gonna get it
01[15:07] {@Threei}  of course we will
01[15:07] {@Threei}  50 min still, think it's going to be 50 min of uniterrupted selling?
[15:08] {nemo} very possibly
[15:08] {nemo} who is gonna' buy going into Ebola weekend?
[15:08] {nemo} Fed?
01[15:08] {@Threei}  (US) Reportedly a plane has been quarantined at McCarran Airport
01[15:08] {@Threei}  well, with a fewe more news headlines like this, lol
01[15:09] {@Threei}  Six ambulances have surrounded a plane this morning at McCarran International Airport amid reports that a passenger on a Delta flight from New York is showing symptoms similar to Ebola.
[15:09] {nemo} where is McCarran
01[15:10] {@Threei}  las vegas
[15:10] {nemo} ahhhh....sin city how appropos
[15:13] {nemo} there was your pullback
[15:13] {nathan} have a nice weekend
[15:13] {nathan} cya next week
01[15:13] {@Threei}  you too nathan
01[15:29] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .45 break
01[15:29] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[15:32] {nemo} pukage?
[15:32] {nemo} Oh Black Monday you be comin'
01[15:39] {@Threei}  ok... trying here
01[15:41] {@Threei}  1:1
[15:41] {nemo} what?
01[15:41] {@Threei}  VXX
01[15:41] {@Threei}  [15:39] {@Threei} ok... trying here
[15:41] {nemo} oh
01[15:41] {@Threei}  45 on pullback
01[15:41] {@Threei}  .45
[15:46] {nemo} on that note..enough for today
01[15:46] {@Threei}  1:3
01[15:46] {@Threei}  1:4
01[15:47] {@Threei}  nice panic
01[15:48] {@Threei}  1:5
01[15:48] {@Threei}  on this note, yes, enough is enough :)
01[15:48] {@Threei}  1:6
01[15:48] {@Threei}  have a great weekend, see you Monday