Tuesday, November 4, 2014

November-December 2014 Outlook: The Relay

TradeTheNews.com November-December 2014 Outlook: The Relay

This past Sunday, New York City hosted its annual marathon amid extremely blustery conditions that brought recent market activity to mind. The extraordinary events of late October reintroduced a concept that was lost on the markets for three years - volatility. With everything but the proverbial kitchen sink thrown at sentiment, US equity markets took a nearly ten percent dip, threatening one of the longest bull runs without a correction in history. An existential crisis in Iraq, sudden visions of an Ebola pandemic, and the uncertainties around the end of the Fed's bond buying program combined to alter the trajectory of markets, if only briefly. But to the delight of risk-on market participants, just two days after the Fed announced the end of QE3, Japan launched a new flight of stimulus-tipped arrows, announcing its giant public pension fund would shift to more aggressive investment while the BOJ expanded its asset purchases. The popular image that immediately took hold in the financial community was that of the Fed handing off the quantitative easing baton to the BOJ (with hopes that the ECB will run the next leg in 2015). Though it is dubious that there was any coordination here, a smooth hand off of that baton will be needed to keep the markets from stumbling.

Fed Finishes the First Leg

At its late October meeting the Fed followed through as promised and tapered the last $15 billion of its monthly quantitative easing program. The QE program was effective in buying time for the economy to heal, and its end should probably be taken as a vote of confidence in US economy. In reality the end of QE3 is just the equivalent of scraping the froth off the top of the stein-full of accommodation the central bank is still providing: A four trillion dollar balance sheet and near zero rates abide.

The withdrawal of the two dissenting votes at the October FOMC meeting indicates that the hawks on the committee are satisfied that the end of QE3 is the first step in the long process of unwinding accommodation that will next move to rate tightening some time in 2015. The hawks are rooting for 'rate lift off' in the early part of next year, while Fed Funds Futures show the markets see it in the latter part of 2015.

Though the Fed is now looking out toward normalization on the horizon, it has been increasingly stressing that policy decisions are strictly data dependent. This principle was important enough that it was written into the October monetary policy statement: "if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee's employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated. Conversely, if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range are likely to occur later than currently anticipated." This leaves wiggle room on both sides of the equation, but the data has been trending better since the spring. Indeed, one development that could accelerate the liftoff schedule would be the materialization of an as yet elusive pick-up in wage inflation.

The next leg of the race for the Fed will start at the December 17 FOMC meeting, when it is expected to address the forward guidance statement that says rates will stay low for a "considerable time following the end of its asset purchase program." New language is in order to further emphasize data dependence and to move away from any calendar-based notions about when rate tightening will begin.

Thus the Fed is giving itself a broad timeframe for when rates might start rising and even when it does begin, the central bank has told us that rates will likely keep rates below normal for "some time" (a clause that has been in the FOMC statement since March). Markets may soon start to dread rate lift off, but it is not likely to lift far off of zero. Though the US economy appears to be ahead of most of the developed world in the recovery cycle, the fact that Europe and Japan have just launched new stimulus packages and are hinting at more could keep the Fed chained to low rates for the foreseeable future, even if a token rate hike comes next year.

In the meantime, the specter of a currency war could arise again as the BOJ and ECB policy actions weaken their respective currencies against the dollar. Since the BOJ surprise announcement on October 31, the USD/JPY has weakened from 108 to 114, while the euro is plumbing a 2-year low against the dollar. While the Fed does not officially consider the currency level, the Yellen team may start to fret about US exports if the dollar continues to surge based on the actions of foreign central banks.

The Handoff

Interestingly the latest risk on rally is built on the premise that the end of the Fed's QE3 has signaled other central banks to step in and do their part for global stimulus. Seemingly on cue, Japan stepped in with another 20 trillion yen from the BOJ and confirmed that the GPIF, the world's largest pension fund, would significantly increase allocations to riskier assets, including nearly doubling its holdings of foreign securities. While the GPIF announcement had been anticipated for weeks, the new BOJ stimulus was a genuine surprise. At the same time, press reports made it clear that PM Abe's government is working on another 3 to 4 trillion yen spending package of its own.

All told it is an impressive effort, and the multi-trillion yen government package may continue to be teased in the press for weeks to come, but that said, this may be the last gasp of stimulus from Japan. The unexpected BOJ stimulus increase was the main driver of the October 31 risk-on rally, but it came in a tight 5 to 4 vote, indicating the policy committee is not entirely comfortable with the plan and that there is little chance of another expansion in the future.

The next signpost for Japan will be its preliminary Q3 GDP data on November 16. The BOJ just cut its fiscal year GDP forecast in half to 0.5% growth, as well as trimming its CPI outlook, acknowledging that reaching the inflation target that is the key yardstick of Abenomics will be more difficult to achieve than previously thought. More discouraging growth data could weigh on the impending decision about whether to go ahead with the second stage of a consumption tax increase in April. The IMF has urged the government to move forward with the tax hike to maintain the credibility of its fiscal framework, but the slower growth seen since the first bite of the tax increase this past spring will give Tokyo much to think about. The decision is slated for December and may be counterbalanced by the fruition of the government spending package.

With Japan seemingly extending itself to its fullest, it may not be long before stimulus addicted markets turn their eyes to the ECB looking for more fuel. In short succession over the summer, ECB President Draghi announced two new major stimulative efforts - the Targeted Long Term Repo Operations (TLTRO) and an ABS/covered bond purchase program dubbed by some as "QE light." Even as these programs are still just getting off the ground, the ECB is feeling definite pressure from markets to go further with a full blown QE program, but that may be stymied by legal limitations preventing the central bank from supporting member nations through direct sovereign bond purchases and the objections of the euro zone's most fiscally prudent members, led by Germany. Those who are waiting for this final and most emphatic manifestation of the 'Draghi Put' may be disappointed, as most indications are that there will not be any ECB QE this year (but maybe in 2015). In the meantime the ECB may tinker with the terms of its TLTRO to improve the results at its next operation (December 11), after a disappointing take-up it is inaugural offering.

Will China Rejoin the Relay?

If Japan and Europe have breathed their last stimulus into the global economy, accommodation junkies may still have a white knight swoop in from other quarters. Since the single major stimulus plan it launched in the early days of the global financial crisis, China has been content to run a series of mini-stimulus programs to keep its growth trajectory right on the 7.5% GDP target. But lately, hitting that target has been getting tougher amid slower industrial growth, a cooling real estate sector, and a relentless anti-corruption campaign that has shaken up business-as-usual.

Through the first three quarters of 2014, Chinese GDP growth is running at 7.4%, just below the official target rate, though the Q3 reading was the slowest quarter since early 2009, suggesting the government's targeted stimulus measures have not yielded the expected results. Officially the China Statistics Bureau is forecasting a stronger Q4 to make up the difference and is still of the belief that growth and inflation figures are close enough to targets that the government can get by with merely fine tuning fiscal policy.

Some deteriorating data may militate against that belief. China's slowdown appears to be concentrated in the real estate sector, which accounts for about 10% of GDP or 20% if you add in related industries. In the last few months, home price appreciation has stalled for the first time in two years and the pace of property sales has slowed markedly (year-to-date total value of property sales are down about 9% year over year through September). Coupled with this, fresh multi-month lows recorded in the latest manufacturing and services PMI readings could bring the People's Bank of China back into action. The PBoC has been relatively quiet in the last two years but if the data continues to decay the central bank could examine a rate cut, which would be the first such easing since mid-2012, the last time it used rate policy to address a perceived slowdown in the rate of economic growth.

The Race Is On

The Fed is done adding stimulus, but the US political landscape may deliver some good mojo to the markets (instead of its usual drag), at least in the short term. The November 4 mid-term elections could put both houses of Congress in the hands of Republicans for the first time since 2006. Given low turn-out in non-Presidential election years and a number of close races, pundits are giving the GOP a better than 70% chance of winning the six additional seats they need to take control of the Senate. Initially markets would probably take this outcome as a positive, and the generally pro-business, pro-energy agenda of the Republicans may give a psychological boost to beleaguered energy stocks in particular, which have been suffering of late due to the swoon in oil prices. A Republican Congress could push through legislation on the Keystone Pipeline, legalization of US oil exports, and a tax amnesty for companies to repatriate overseas earnings, putting the onus on President Obama to use his veto. No matter what happens in the election, the US will still have a divided government for at least two more years, and the pundits will immediately move on to analysis of the 2016 Presidential race while Mr. Obama serves out his lame duck years.

Elsewhere in politics, Europe will face another secession vote, this time in Spain. The rhetoric of the Catalan independence movement has been somewhat blunted after the independence movement was scotched in the UK, but the enclave is still forging ahead with a non-binding reference vote on independence on November 9. A yes vote in the Catalonia referendum could revive concerns about balkanization in Europe, an unneeded distraction for a continent already facing difficult political and economic challenges.

A Slippery Path for Oil

In its own way, OPEC may have made a grab for the stimulus baton too. The steady strengthening of the greenback has had an outsized impact on the commodity markets, leaving WTI crude trading around $80/barrel and Brent crude about $5 higher, the lowest levels since the early days of the global economic crisis. The rapid 20% decline in oil prices is a cause for panic in some smaller OPEC producing countries. Venezuela, fearing the price drop in the commodity that accounts for almost all of its exports could lead to a debt default, clamored for an emergency meeting of the cartel to address the issue, but its call fell on deaf ears. Saudi Arabia -- the powerhouse of OPEC and the only member with enough spare capacity to move the needle -- appears to be content with the current situation. At least one Saudi diplomat suggested that this might be his country's means of providing some global stimulus. Analysts say that if the 20% drop in oil prices sticks, it would boost global consumption and amount to more than $1 trillion in annual stimulus, which in turn would create demand for another half million barrels per day of oil.

The Saudis could have other motives as well. Though current the current price of oil is near Saudi Arabia's budgeted break-even point, rival producers have higher production costs per barrel. The Saudis recently offered price discounts to large Asian customers, indicating that they are less concerned about price than about protecting market share from producers like Russia (which in the face of Ukraine-related sanctions has made strides to ship more crude to East Asia), and Iran, the Saudis religious and political rival. Weaker energy prices have also squeezed the North American fracking industry which has boomed with oil above $100/barrel, but now may have to reevaluate the economic viability of some higher cost wells.

The intentions of the Saudis may be made clear at the November 27 regular meeting of OPEC oil ministers in Vienna. An increasing number of energy analysts are forecasting that Saudi Arabia will relent and agree to a 500 thousand to 1.5 million barrel reduction in the OPEC production ceiling, which might send crude prices back toward the $100 mark, if not above it. The decision may be hinted at in OPEC's Annual World Oil Outlook released on November 6.

Iran could turn out to be another wildcard for energy markets. Negotiations over restraining Iran's nuclear program have been grinding on, with the latest extension in talks setting a November 24 deadline for an agreement. The chief diplomats for both sides have maintained a cautious outlook as this date approaches, indicating that a lot of work still needs to be done to achieve a viable deal. A major sticking point appears to be that Tehran wants sanctions lifted immediately while the US and its allies are proposing a gradual withdrawal. If a deal can be struck, more Iranian oil will eventually get to market, but failure to reach terms might lead the major powers to put more pressure on Iran's oil customers in Asia to reduce their consumption. In addition, Israel, which is already on a short fuse after its most serious confrontation with Hamas in years this summer, might see failed nuclear talks as the signal for it to take military action against nuclear sites in Iran.

Among other commodities, precious metals are also at multiyear lows. Even amidst the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Ukraine, and Hong Kong this year gold has not gained an ounce of traction. The chart of the yellow metal is indicating a technical breakdown may be imminent, but things might be looking up for the gold bugs as Switzerland prepares for a referendum on the issue of its gold reserves. If the referendum passes on November 30, the Swiss National Bank will be required to stop selling gold and to increase its gold reserves to 20% of its assets (from the current 7.8%). This would force the central bank to buy over 1,500 tons of gold, or sell close to half of its fiat money reserves, or some combination of the two to boost the percentage weight of gold on its balance sheet. Such drastic changes might imperil the 1.20 ceiling the SNB has imposed on the franc, which nearly reached parity with the euro in mid-2011 just before the currency cap was put in place. The latest polling shows the yes vote has a slight edge.

Far From the Last Mile

QE is not over, it is just evolving. Japan has grabbed the baton, and the BOJ bonanza reignited the risk-on rally. Many are hoping that the ECB will take up QE next, but don't count on it in the near term. However, more stimulus could come from other quarters, ranging from the US Senate to the Saudi oil princes, or China may even pick up the baton again. In all it may be enough to propel a melt up of risk assets into the New Year (though the jury is still l out on whether QE has been as beneficial for Main Street as it has been for the markets).

So what could go wrong? The doomsayers assert that we are bound for a situation where QE becomes a permanent fixture or that all this stimulus is really just 'pushing on a string' and will eventually lead to a calamity that will eclipse the worst days of 2008. The strong dollar trend looks ready to continue, but if it goes too far too fast, it could erode the gains made in the US economic recovery, and further compress oil prices. More importantly, if the ECB and BOJ extraordinary measures don't turn things around soon, it could set up a global deflationary spiral.

Even if the outcomes are not that extreme, the recent bout of market volatility showed things can move quickly, illustrated by disturbingly rapid whoosh lower seen in government bonds and oil. Markets may get unsettled again by a resurgence of the issues that caused the October gyrations. As 2015 creeps closer, thoughts will turn to Fed tightening, especially if improving employment data is met with wage inflation. The geopolitical upsets in Ukraine and Iraq are not fully resolved either, not to mention that the impending flu season will send every hypochondriac in the western world to the hospital screaming Ebola.

In this holiday season, here's to your health, and to hoping the central banks execute a smooth handoff of that baton for at least few more laps.



CALENDAR

NOVEMBER
2: China Non-Manufacturing PMI; China HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI
3: US ISM Manufacturing PMI
4: UK Construction PMI; US Trade Balance; US Factory Orders; US Election Day
5: Various EU Services PMIs; US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; BOJ Minutes
6: German Factory Orders; BOE policy statement; ECB policy statement and press conf; OPEC Annual World Oil Outlook
7: US Payrolls and Unemployment
8: China Trade Balance

9: China CPI and PPI
10: China New Loans; UK Manufacturing Production
11: UK Trade Balance
12: EU Industrial Production; BOE Inflation Report
13: China Industrial Production; UK Claimant Count and Unemployment
14: UK CPI and PPI; Euro Zone flash Q3 GDP; US Retail Sales, Prelim University of Michigan Confidence

16: Japan Prelim Q3 GDP
17: US Industrial Production
18: UK Retail Sales; German ZEW Economic Sentiment; US PPI; BOJ Policy Statement (tentative date)
19: BOE Minutes; US Housing Starts & Building Permits; Oct FOMC Minutes; Japan Trade Balance
20: US CPI; US Philly Fed Index; US Existing Home Sales
21:

24: BOJ Minutes; China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI; Deadline for Iran Nuclear Deal with Major Powers
25: Various EU Flash Manufacturing PMIs; UK Q3 GDP (2nd reading); German Ifo Business Climate; US Prelim Q3 GDP (2nd reading); US Consumer Confidence
26: German Prelim CPI; US Durable Goods; US New Home Sales
27: German Unemployment; Japan Retail Sales; Tokyo CPI; OPEC Regular Meeting; US CLOSED FOR THANKSGIVING
28: German Retail Sales; Euro Zone Flash CPI Estimate; Euro Zone Unemployment; Chicago PMI

30: China Manufacturing PMI; China HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI; Swiss referendum on gold reserves and immigration issues
DECEMBER:
1: US ISM Manufacturing PMI
2: UK Construction PMI; China Non-Manufacturing PMI
3: UK Construction PMI; Euro Zone Retail Sales; US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
4: BOE policy statement; ECB policy statement and press conf
5: German Factory Orders; US Payrolls and Unemployment; US Factory Orders

8: China Trade Balance (tentative); Japan Final Q3 GDP
9: UK Trade Balance; China CPI and PPI
10: China New Loans; UK Manufacturing Production
11: ECB Targeted LTRO announcement; US Retail Sales
12: China Industrial Production; Euro Zone Industrial Production; Prelim University of Michigan Confidence

15: UK CPI and PPI; US Industrial Production
16: UK Claimant Count and Unemployment; German ZEW Economic Sentiment; BOE Financial Stability Report; US Housing Starts & Building Permits; Japan Trade Balance
17: BOE Minutes; Euro Zone Final CPI; US CPI; FOMC Policy Statement and Press Conference
18: UK Retail Sales; US Philly Fed Index; BOJ Policy Statement (tentative)
19:

22: German Unemployment; US Existing Home Sales; China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
23: German Retail Sales; Various EU Flash Manufacturing PMIs; German Ifo Business Climate; US Final Q3 GDP; US Durable Goods Orders; US New Home Sales
24: BOJ Minutes
25: Tokyo CPI; CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY
26:

29: German Prelim CPI; Japan Retail Sales
30: US Chicago PMI; US Consumer Confidence
31: China Manufacturing PMI

TradeTheNews.com


Monday, November 3, 2014

Nov 03 2014

Started with 2 juicy wins, then took a few stops (a few too many I'd say), then finished with a few nice wins again. Still ended slightly negative - that "a few too many" part.



Session Time: Mon Nov 03 00:00:01 2014
[08:56] {dino} gm 3i
01[08:56] {@Threei}  morning dino
[09:12] {Jenh} gm 
01[09:12] {@Threei}  jen :)
[09:13] {RonS} hi everyone
01[09:15] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:19] {RonS} 40 and raining here...wasted weekend painting hail damage...
01[09:20] {@Threei}  well, it's +40... some parts are about to get hit with -40
[09:20] {Jenh} ouch. sorry to hear to that 
[09:20] {RonS} $56 for a gallon of paint, i hate the epa...
[09:21] {RonS} Mercedes is quietly using Tesla technology in its first mainstream plug-in: http://bloom.bg/1wYgedT  
[09:26] {jfjf64} mornin
01[09:26] {@Threei}  jf :)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  to air another grievance, I passionately hate time change
[09:26] {RonS} me too
01[09:27] {@Threei}  as much as it pains me to say so, but here is one thing Putin's done well, doing away with this nonsense
[09:28] {ese} gm
01[09:28] {@Threei}  ese :)
01[09:32] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .30 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .40 
01[09:32] {@Threei}  1:1  
01[09:34] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:34] {@Threei}  -SAPE +42% (being acquired by Publicis Groupe)
01[09:34] {@Threei}  -GERN +30% (clinical hold on Imetelsat removed by FDA)
01[09:34] {@Threei}  -COV +27% (Stellarex assets being acquired by Spectranetics)
01[09:34] {@Threei}  -AMRE +6% (being acquired by EDENS)
01[09:34] {@Threei}  -SPCB +5.2% (earnings)
01[09:34] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:34] {@Threei}  -ARCP -16% (momentum from Friday's criminal probe & RCAP terminates agreement to acquire Cole Capital)
01[09:34] {@Threei}  -RCAP -2% (terminates agreement to acquire Cole Capital)
01[09:36] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .35 break
01[09:36] {@Threei}  If holds  .25 
01[09:36] {@Threei}  .1
01[09:36] {@Threei}  1:1  
01[09:37] {@Threei}  1:2  
01[09:38] {@Threei}  1:2  FB 
01[09:43] {@Threei}  if loses 75, will try for 1:4
01[09:44] {@Threei}  *(US) OCT FINAL MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 55.9 V 56.2E
01[09:47] {@Threei}  1:3  
[09:48] {dino} mbly sm l .01 hooker
01[09:50] {@Threei}  thought VXX had 1:3 in it
01[09:53] {@Threei}  1:4 FB close enough, out
[09:53] {jfjf64} good job
[09:53] {dino} out mbly .40, +.39
[09:54] {jfjf64} dal
[09:54] {jfjf64} dtop
[09:54] {jfjf64} ?
01[09:55] {@Threei}  let it form better chart
01[09:55] {@Threei}  can turn into C&H easy
[09:55] {jfjf64} k
[09:55] {jfjf64} will keep i
01[09:56] {@Threei}  cross over .50, holding under .55 and loss of .45 would be nice setup
01[09:56] {@Threei} Short Setup: DAL  .45
01[09:56] {@Threei}  If holds  .55 
01[09:57] {@Threei}  Invalidated  
[09:57] {jfjf64} looked good for sec
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) OCT ISM MANUFACTURING: 59.0 V 56.2E; PRICES PAID: 53.5 V 58.0E
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) SEPT CONSTRUCTION SPENDING M/M: -0.4 % V 0.7%E
[10:04] {dino} rcpt smr s .01 wide
01[10:06] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .90 break
01[10:07] {@Threei}  Invalidated  
[10:14] {nemo} cat
01[10:15] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  75 break
01[10:15] {@Threei}  If holds  .90 
01[10:22] {@Threei}  struggle
01[10:27] {@Threei}  no go
[10:28] {dino} out crus calls last week, flat
[10:29] {jfjf64} logix can draw tred lines new upgrade
[10:31] {jfjf64} dal .50 break
[10:31] {jfjf64} watchin
01[10:35] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .65 break
01[10:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .55 
[10:36] {JoebiWan} hey gang
01[10:36] {@Threei}  hi joebi
01[10:37] {@Threei}  welcome back
[10:37] {JoebiWan} ty
01[10:37] {@Threei}  been a while since you trialed
[10:38] {JoebiWan} it has
[10:40] {dino} ingn spike
[10:42] {Jenh} dino, the spreads on the stocks you trade are insane. especially rcpt. I haven't seen spreads that wide outside of a text book 
[10:42] {Jenh} you're very brave
01[10:43] {@Threei}  this is his trademark
[10:44] {Jenh} ic
01[10:44] {@Threei}  CAT vakid
01[10:44] {@Threei}  valid too
01[10:44] {@Threei}  they require different approach Jen
01[10:45] {@Threei}  not for newer traders
[10:46] {Jenh} or maybe never for me :) i can't stomach those kinds of volume numbers
[10:46] {dino} jen, do not trade what i trade. ron is about the only one here who sees what i see
01[10:47] {@Threei}  I see it too dino but every time I do I wish I could unsee it {G}
[10:47] {Jenh} don't worry. never thought to trade what you trade. :)
[10:47] {Jenh} watching you trade is nerve wracking enough 
01[10:48] {@Threei}  pampers trade
[10:48] {jfjf64} lol
[10:48] {Jenh} lol
[10:48] {dino} control spread thru size
01[10:49] {@Threei}  Invalidated  CAT 
01[10:49] {@Threei}  and through entry/wxits imitating marketmaking
[10:49] {dino} yes
01[10:52] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .80 break
01[10:52] {@Threei}  If holds  .90 
01[10:55] {@Threei}  no go
[11:07] {dino} added small amt baba calls w/time into earnings
[11:07] {dino} rcpt stop ave -.38
01[11:09] {@Threei}  frozen market
[11:09] {nemo} damn HFTs
[11:09] {nemo} hey dino, watch Pats yesterday?
01[11:11] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .20 break
01[11:11] {@Threei}  If holds  .10 
01[11:11] {@Threei}  Invalidated  
[11:12] {dino} no, had enough after watching penn state blow it saturday and the jets stink it up on sunday
01[11:12] {@Threei}  change to 41 break
01[11:12] {@Threei}  If holds  .90 
[11:12] {RonS} watched Steelers/Ravens...that was the game...what a slugfest
[11:13] {dino} pcrx smr l .15
01[11:14] {@Threei}  hmmm
01[11:14] {@Threei}  patterns disappeared
01[11:26] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .65 break
01[11:32] {@Threei}  let's go VXX
[11:32] {jfjf64} lets doit
01[11:32] {@Threei}  held nicely on pullback, now break .70 and fly
01[11:43] {@Threei}  nope
01[11:43] {@Threei}  OK, I officially dislike today
01[11:44] {@Threei}  opening was good, after that movements became random
[11:47] {dino} ditto
[11:47] {Jenh} i think we should make a formal complaint 
01[11:48] {@Threei}  I agree but to whom?
[11:48] {jfjf64} nemo
[11:49] {Jenh} nemo and nyse 
[11:49] {Jenh} cover all bases
01[11:49] {@Threei}  {Nemo} hmm, new role... usually I am a subject of commplaints
01[11:50] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .70 break
[11:50] {jfjf64} he has been very quiet today
01[11:50] {@Threei}  If holds  .60 
01[11:50] {@Threei}  he is one hour behind
01[11:50] {@Threei}  cosmo can't install mirc on his spare laptop... Raven fell of his perch... I am telling you, this time change is horrible
[11:53] {dino} lol
[11:57] {RonS} true story...very few trick & treaters here and elsewhere in neighborhood...neighbor lady said "could not believe how many I had...record number...guy standing there "what were you giving out?" ...full sized candy bars... guys says "the kids probably have an app for that"...
[11:58] {Jenh} lol
01[11:59] {@Threei}  lol
01[11:59] {@Threei}  sheesh
01[12:00] {@Threei}  come on
[12:07] {jfjf64} twtr
[12:07] {jfjf64} lk lower
[12:09] {jfjf64} lol
01[12:27] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .50 break
01[12:28] {@Threei}  If holds  .60 
[12:28] {dino} out pcrx .85, +.70
01[12:31] {@Threei}  wtg
[12:32] {dino} ty
[12:32] {RonS} out pcrx 91.15 from 90.14 +1.01  thanks dino
[12:34] {jfjf64} wtg boys
[12:35] {Jenh} congratulations guys!
[12:39] {Jenh} just looked at pcrx. over .40 spread at one point. better than $1 earlier but still....
[12:39] {Jenh} too hard to watch
[12:39] {Jenh} you guys really know what you're doing
01[12:40] {@Threei}  Jen, they have this secret... don't tell anyone but it's chicken entrails hung on dartboard
[12:40] {Jenh} I KNEW IT!
01[12:40] {@Threei}  and they use a bat's collarbone as a dart
[12:41] {Jenh} of course. it all makes sense now
01[12:41] {@Threei}  almost... there is one more little thing not many know
[12:41] {Jenh} bat collarbone is the best technical there is 
01[12:42] {@Threei}  a bat must be caught at the full moon, and the intersection of Main Str and 2st Ave
01[12:42] {@Threei}  1st
01[12:42] {@Threei}  and wrapped in tea leaves for three day
01[12:42] {@Threei}  only after that collarbone is extracted
[12:42] {dino} and if you can catch an albino bat, you have to go all in
[12:43] {Jenh} i guess i have to get my net out and start brewing some tea
[12:45] {nemo} Politics and Humor @PoliticalLaughs
[12:45] {nemo} Relying on the government to protect your privacy is like asking a peeping tom to install your window blinds. - John Perry Barlow
01[12:46] {@Threei}  sounds about right
01[12:46] {@Threei}  and as relevant to trading as bat hunting
[12:47] {Jenh} lol
01[12:48] {@Threei}  break down already TWTR
[12:48] {jfjf64} step aside.50
01[12:51] {@Threei}  this time
[12:52] {jfjf64} spy must die
01[12:53] {@Threei}  FB looks breakdownish too
[12:53] {jfjf64} .10
01[12:55] {@Threei}  no news
01[12:55] {@Threei}  spike out of nowhere
01[12:56] {@Threei}  Invalidated  
01[12:58] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .10 break
01[12:58] {@Threei}  If holds  .20 
01[13:00] {@Threei}  1:1  
01[13:03] {@Threei}  1:2  
01[13:04] {@Threei}  1:3  
01[13:04] {@Threei}  out
01[13:04] {@Threei}  finally decent one, after two morning wins
01[13:05] {@Threei}  Saudi Aramco raises December official selling price (OSP) for Arab light crude to Asia by 95 cents; raises prices to Europe, and lowers US prices - press
[13:10] {jfjf64} twtr
[13:20] {jfjf64} im gonna skip
[13:20] {jfjf64} see all tommorrow
[13:20] {Jenh} bye jf
[13:20] {Jenh} have a great day
01[13:22] {@Threei}  take care jf
[13:28] {nemo} IWM
[13:47] {dino} added fxy puts
01[13:55] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .25 break
01[13:55] {@Threei}  If holds  .15 
[13:59] {dino} ncmi drop
01[14:05] {@Threei}  1:1  
[14:06] {dino} ncmi smr l .84
[14:09] {RonS} feds suing ncmi to stop some sort of merger...ohhh need to protect everyone from the evil cinema advertising monopoly ad empire
[14:10] {dino} hard stop at .66, lets see if it can run
[14:17] {dino} to .54
[14:18] {dino} to .74
[14:19] {dino} to .77
[14:19] {dino} slip, out .74, +.90 mcmi
[14:19] {dino} ncmi
[14:20] {dino} ron, you get that?
[14:20] {Jenh} gj dino
[14:20] {RonS} nah, distracted w/ grandkids raising hell... gj
[14:21] {dino} ty
[14:21] {nemo} velcro and superglue
[14:21] {dino} now jen, admit it, that one was a lot of fun
[14:21] {Jenh} didn't even look yet 
[14:22] {dino} pull up the daily chart
[14:23] {JoebiWan} how do you gauge when to enter a trade like that, Dino?
[14:23] {Jenh} i feel sick. and did it not trade at all from 11:30-2? 
[14:24] {Jenh} that's just scary to me
[14:24] {dino} higher lows/higher highs
[14:24] {Jenh} great job tho
[14:24] {Jenh} stomach of steel
[14:24] {JoebiWan} 1min chart?
[14:24] {dino} yes
[14:25] {Jenh} did you use regular bat or albino?
[14:25] {dino} baseball bat
[14:25] {Jenh} ah. wise move
[14:25] {RonS} half-breed?
01[14:27] {@Threei}  1:2  
[14:29] {dino} gj
01[14:29] {@Threei}  1:3  
01[14:30] {@Threei}  ty
01[14:30] {@Threei}  second 1:3er makes it better
01[14:30] {@Threei}  not positive yet but takes the sting out
[14:32] {dino} sleeper type day
01[14:32] {@Threei}  1:4
01[14:32] {@Threei}  out
[14:33] {Jenh} gj
01[14:54] {@Threei}  VXX had more in it
[15:02] {RonS} off to a meeting...later all...
01[15:03] {@Threei}  take care ron
[15:05] {Jenh} bye Ron
[15:18] {dino} xlrn drop
01[15:22] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .70 break
01[15:22] {@Threei}  If holds  .65 
01[15:29] {@Threei}  half out
01[15:29] {@Threei}  balance stop to .69
01[15:41] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .05 break
01[15:41] {@Threei}  If holds  .98 
01[15:43] {@Threei}  nah
01[15:44] {@Threei}  a few too many stops today, finishing slightly negative despite nice comeback
01[15:47] {@Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening'see you tomorrow
[15:47] {Jenh} thanks 3i! good night everyone
[15:50] {JoebiWan} bye all
[15:51] {dino} gn all

Friday, October 31, 2014

Market Week Wrap-up

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Fed Passes the QE Baton to the BoJ
Fri, 31 Oct 2014 16:13 PM EST

The Fed ended QE3 this week, six years after beginning the extraordinary effort to ease monetary condition in the US, and just two days later the Bank of Japan doubled down on its own QE policies. Note that the Fed retained its language on keeping interest rates low for a "considerable time" but dropped its "significant" wording in regards to slack in the US labor market. In addition, the Q3 US GDP topped expectations and grew 3.5%, according to preliminary data. Global equity markets surged higher following the events, with both the DJIA and S&P500 back at all-time closing highs on Friday, the Nikkei up 5% and the Nasdaq at its best level since February 2000. Shanghai saw more modest gains after the flash manufacturing PMI for October gained a bit and Q3 GDP came in at +7.3%. For the week, the DJIA had its biggest gain since early 2013, rising 3.4%, the S&P500 rose 2.7%, and the Nasdaq added another 3.3%.

With progress in the battle for higher inflation slowing, the BoJ caved to pressure and expanded its asset buying program, raising its annual monetary base expansion target to ¥80T from ¥60-70T in a tightly split 5-4 decision. The bank cited "weak developments in demand following consumption tax hike and a substantial decline in crude prices". Annual JGB purchases will also rise to ¥80T from ¥50T prior, while the average maturity held would rise to 7-10 years from seven prior. Subsequently, the BOJ also lowered its FY14 GDP target to 0.5% from 1.0% and core CPI forecast to 1.2% from 1.3%. USD/JPY hit seven-year highs above 112 after the announcement.

The advance look at US third quarter GDP was pretty rosy (+3.5% v +3.0%e), with the headline figure much better than expected. However, analysts were quick to point out that a big gain in government spending was responsible for much of the outperformance, while the fixed investment, exports and imports all declined. Government spending broke a long string of declines and grew at a 10% rate in the quarter. The September durable goods was negative for the second consecutive month, however the decline was much less severe that the one seen in August, and the August data was revised slightly higher.

The Russian Central Bank tried and failed to stem the ongoing collapse of the ruble. USD/RUB has been probing fresh all-time lows day after day, hitting 44 to the dollar on Friday morning, while inflation hit 8% in September and capital outflows are not slowing down. At its scheduled policy meeting on Friday morning, the Bank Rossii raised its main interest rate 150 basis points to 9.5%, three times the expected amount. The ruble strengthened momentarily, with USD/RUB dropping back to 41.25, however it popped back up above 43.00 in no time. In Ukraine news, agreement seems to have been reached in tripartite negotiations with Russia and the EU to secure gas delivery through the winter and resolve some of Ukraine's gas debt.

Crude regained some value in the first half of the week, as WTI rose from $80.60 and topped out at $82.80. At a conference in London, OPEC Secretary General El-Badri said his organization was not seeing any big change in market fundamentals, asserted current prices should not cause alarm and claimed the market was currently oversupplied by about 1 million bpd. His comments corresponded with the top, and WTI was back around $80 by Friday as fresh dollar strength and more central bank easing beat the stuffing out of commodities, including crude. Societe Generale joined several other analysts in forecasting an OPEC production ceiling cut of 1.0-1.5 bpd at the upcoming November 27th meeting.

Hewlett-Packard announced this week that it would enter the 3D printing market in 2016 with a new product that is "10x faster than any product on the market today." Shares of 3D printing names DDD, SSYS and VJET took a big dip on the news. The firm also unveiled an "immersive computing" product with dual touchscreens and a 3D scanner that would work in concert with 3D printers and could reinvent computing.

The fall earnings season is well past the halfway mark, with around four-fifths of the S&P500 having already disclosed results from the July-September period. Data shows that about 80% of these companies have beat EPS expectations. Revenue gains have made modest progress, with the aggregate gains in top-line revenue slightly higher than the average over the last four quarters. Big Oil names, including Exxon and Shell, saw low crude prices cut both ways, as better downstream results made up for worse upstream results. Visa and MasterCard did very well as spending volumes surged. Twitter tanked as investors worried about user growth, while Facebook swooned on weak guidance.

The ECB's asset purchase program is set to begin in November and there has been talk the bank might greatly expand a program that has been widely criticized. The ECB never put a total monetary value on the program, and speculation on how much ABS the bank could buy has focused on remarks made by ECB President Dragh, who said balance sheet would grow back to 2012 levels. In 2012, the ECB's balance sheet was worth €3.0 trillion at its biggest, compared to a figure of €2.0 trillion today, suggesting an ABS purchase plan of up to €1.0 trillion. On Friday a report citing ECB sources suggested that the bank is not targeting a €3.0 trillion balance sheet, in an apparent attempt to tamp down expectations and push governments to continue fiscal reforms. The euro had been slowly strengthening in the first half of the week, in the upper half of the 1.2700 handle, but after the Fed and BoJ moves, the pair dipped below 1.2500 for the first time since August 2012.

The Brazilian Real looked ready for outsized losses following the re-election of President Dilma Rousseff. USD/BRL ended last week at 2.48 and initially tested 2.55 following the election. However, the Real managed to claw its way back as the government started talking about taking a new tack in its second term. Brazil equities have begun coming back a little bit: Petrobras lost nearly 45% between mid-October and early this week, but ticked slightly higher heading into the end of the week.

The Shanghai Composite was swept higher by the surging tide in global risk appetite, ending the week up over 5% at its highest level in 20 months. China's top state-owned banks' Q3 profits were generally in line with expectations, however all of them also saw troubling increases in non-performing loans, in part due to a slump in the property sector. The silver lining for the mainland was a hint from government officials that completion of the delayed Hong Kong-Shanghai trading link has now entered the "final stage." China Stats Bureau will unveil the official October manufacturing PMI figure later tonight, with consensus pointing to a marginal bump to 51.2.


Oct 31 2104

Slightly negative day, after largely boring day with some rinses and some wins. Considering how the whole month went, no reason to complain about last day.

 Session Time: Fri Oct 31 00:00:00 2014


[09:09] {dino} gm
01[09:09] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:13] {nemo} go back to sleep boys
[09:13] {nemo} or start drinking early on a Friday
[09:13] {nemo} There is an annual contest at Texas A&M University calling for the most
[09:13] {nemo} appropriate definition of a contemporary term. This year's term was
[09:13] {nemo} **- "Political Correctness."**
[09:13] {nemo} **The winner wrote:**** "Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a
[09:13] {nemo} delusional, illogical minority, and rabidly promoted by an unscrupulous
[09:13] {nemo} mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely
[09:13] {nemo} possible to pick up a piece of shit by the clean end."*
[09:15] {dino} roflol
[09:15] {RonS} gm...heard on the street: I woke up to a boj this morning...
[09:16] {nemo} good one
[09:16] {jfjf64} mornin
[09:17] {nemo} I figured a new SPY ATH was coming, didn't know it would be this way
01[09:17] {@Threei}  ron, jf :)
[09:19] {nemo} new SPY TH in premarket
[09:22] {dino} guess my lightening up on calls tuesday was a bit early
[09:22] {dino} crazy markets. world was coming to an end two weeks ago, now hits new highs
[09:22] {Jenh} gm everyone!
01[09:23] {@Threei}  jen :)
[09:23] {RonS} lms...
[09:23] {nemo} that was the Ebola one off DIno
01[09:25] {@Threei}  and another bout of EU disease
[09:26] {RonS} thought this was sort of middle eastern garb:  Protests resume after army seizes control of Burkina Faso
[09:27] {troub} good morning
01[09:27] {@Threei}  lol
01[09:27] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:35] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  ..80 break
01[09:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:35] {@Threei}  umh
01[09:35] {@Threei}  1:1 but good luck getting in
01[09:37] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .20 break
01[09:37] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[09:37] {@Threei}  change to .10 break
01[09:38] {@Threei}  If holds  42
01[09:39] {@Threei}  nope
01[09:44] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .70 break
01[09:44] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[09:45] {@Threei}  *(US) OCT CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER: 66.2 V 60.0E
01[09:46] {@Threei}  jerky...
[09:46] {nemo} ese here?
01[09:46] {@Threei}  FUEL Hearing takever chatter circulating- Google speculated as a suiter
01[09:50] {@Threei}  rinse FB
01[09:50] {@Threei}  somg
01[09:53] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .15 break
01[09:53] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
01[09:53] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:53] {nemo} yeah, right
01[09:54] {@Threei}  ?
[09:54] {nemo} no time to get it
01[09:54] {@Threei}  .17 here
01[09:54] {@Threei}  1:2
[09:54] {nemo} wow, my quotes must be off
01[09:55] {@Threei}  *(US) OCT FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 86.9 V 86.4E
[09:59] {dino} crus sm l .80
01[10:02] {@Threei} Long Setup:  WMT  .95 break
[10:02] {jfjf64} vxx
[10:02] {jfjf64} vg
01[10:02] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
[10:04] {nemo} very little showing up on algo as of yet
01[10:05] {@Threei}  stop to .89
[10:07] {dino} twm sm l .93
[10:13] {nemo} you need to have your stop above .40 in IWM
01[10:13] {@Threei}  meh
[10:14] {dino} twm stop .78 -.15
[10:15] {nemo} betting against central banks dino?
[10:17] {dino} :)
[10:20] {ese} morning ladies (nemo) and gents....am late show to prepare for tonight
[10:23] {nemo} SPY should go for 202 and take out the ATH
[10:23] {nemo} XLE straight up
01[10:24] {@Threei}  ese :)
[10:24] {ese} oh...there are people here.....thought for a moment that i'd missed something
01[10:25] {@Threei}  you thought you were entering empty space?
[10:26] {ese} just reading yesterdays trading blog......man vad....you take out all the insults I throw at nemo......thats no fun...nobody can read them
[10:26] {troub} bailing out for a month or two.  good luck to all.  and by the way nemo and vad, I'm one of those dastardly Democrats who voted for Pres. Obama. Oh, also female.
[10:26] {nemo} they're so bad ese, that's why
01[10:27] {@Threei}  good luck troub, we will be here
01[10:27] {@Threei}  and we don't holds it against you :)
[10:27] {nemo} who knows, one Carrington event, or misguided meteor, it's all over
01[10:27] {@Threei}  as famous line in the movie goes, nobody's perfect
[10:28] {ese} I like Obama troub.....i've taken a lickin from this crew as well
[10:28] {troub} glad to see you state your position vad.
[10:28] {nemo} He's a great orator
01[10:28] {@Threei}  the difference is, you like him on someone else's dime, ese {G}
[10:28] {ese} ouch
[10:29] {ese} what'd i tell ya troub
01[10:29] {@Threei}  troub pays for her preferences directly, lol
[10:29] {nemo} she left ese
[10:29] {dino} good luck troub
[10:31] {nemo} she left dino
[10:32] {nemo} @10:28
01[10:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .40 break
[10:32] {Jenh} oh no. just missed the one other female in the group
[10:32] {dino} damn dial up
01[10:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
[10:32] {Jenh} don't leave me alone with them troub
[10:32] {nemo} on that note: http://goo.gl/TP95lz
[10:33] {nemo} oh sheesh, it's not like we...I mean, they bite
[10:33] {Jenh} :)
[10:33] {nemo} I mean, I do...bit rip chew tear eviscerate
01[10:34] {@Threei}  stop to .34
01[10:35] {@Threei}  large gap up day... sigh
01[10:38] {@Threei}  watching CAT for pullback entry
[10:43] {dino} arii smr l .36
[10:43] {dino} for you ron
01[10:47] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .70 break
01[10:47] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[10:51] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:52] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:54] {@Threei}  will try for 1:5 if takes 102
01[11:05] {@Threei}  nah, out
[11:08] {nemo} they're slowly getting SPY to ATHs
[11:08] {dino} out arii .86, +.50
[11:09] {RonS} took arii .28 to .95 +.67  paying attention to vwap today...hehe  thanks dino
01[11:10] {@Threei}  wtg
[11:11] {jfjf64} 1:4 ty vg
[11:12] {dino} yw
01[11:12] {@Threei}  yw
01[11:12] {@Threei}  good patience
[11:13] {jfjf64} I never seen ya leave lk that
[11:13] {jfjf64} grrr
[11:13] {jfjf64} 1:5
01[11:14] {@Threei}  as foretold
[11:14] {jfjf64} yes sir
[11:18] {jfjf64} twtr look lower to ya
[11:18] {nemo} yeah, should head down towards Les's IQ
[11:19] {nemo} no, likely up to vwap
01[11:19] {@Threei}  can't tell
[11:19] {jfjf64} mr ds vwap 42.00
[11:34] {jfjf64} fu twtr
01[11:49] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .50 break
01[11:49] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[11:53] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:57] {@Threei}  Just two days after the Fed ended its QE program, the BoJ surprised everybody this morning by greatly expanding its existing QE program, rocking global markets. The Nikkei gained 4.8% on the session and Nikkei futures continued rising after the close of cash trading. European indices surged higher and look to close at their highs, with both the CAC and the DAX up more than 2% a piece.
01[11:57] {@Threei}  The S&P500 retook 2000 in the premarket and the DJIA is at fresh all-time highs.
01[12:21] {@Threei}  https://www.facebook.com/RealityTrader/posts/856305641070779
01[12:22] {@Threei}  VXX continues
01[12:22] {@Threei}  jf, you still in?
01[12:24] {@Threei}  jf is in coma
01[12:24] {@Threei}  or deep in the beer bottle
01[12:34] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .95 break
01[12:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
01[12:38] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[12:56] {dino} zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
01[12:56] {@Threei}  yeah
01[12:56] {@Threei}  well... end of this fireworks month, market can afford one boring day :)
[13:11] {nemo} anybody for iwm .40 short
01[13:13] {@Threei}  I like
[13:33] {jfjf64} hey vg
[13:33] {jfjf64} no coma
01[13:33] {@Threei}  yes?
01[13:33] {@Threei}  no?
01[13:33] {@Threei}  just some liquid sunshine?
[13:34] {jfjf64} pumpkin beer today
[13:34] {dino} had some stegmeier pumpkin ale last night
[13:36] {jfjf64} southern tier/pumpkin head
[13:36] {jfjf64} very nice
01[13:38] {@Threei} Short Setup: IWM  .35 break
[13:38] {jfjf64} cat short
01[13:38] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
[13:38] {nemo} might have to short tna
[13:38] {jfjf64} cant
01[13:39] {@Threei}  don't see setup on CAT
[13:39] {Jenh} me neither. too few shorts available?
[13:39] {nemo} he meant cat=can't
[13:39] {jfjf64} ty
[13:39] {jfjf64} nnemo
[13:39] {Jenh} (lol)
[13:39] {dino} jf, twm, srty
[13:40] {jfjf64} ty dino
[13:40] {dino} np
[13:41] {dino} srty sm l .93
01[13:41] {@Threei}  round-up of october photos should be posted today
01[13:42] {@Threei}  your last chance to be included in e-mail list for notification
01[13:42] {@Threei}  except nemo, him I will spam without his permission
[13:42] {Jenh} how do you have peacocks just roaming around? i've never heard or seen that before
[13:42] {Jenh} or is that a zoo/park
[13:43] {Jenh} ?
01[13:43] {@Threei}  not zoo... just city park
01[13:43] {@Threei}  a lot of them roaming around
[13:43] {Jenh} really? that's really nice
01[13:43] {@Threei}  I have some incredible shots from their mating season
[13:44] {dino} peacock porn?
01[13:44] {@Threei}  kind of, lol
[13:44] {Jenh} so there are little pea...chicks also just roaming the park without any protection from people?
[13:44] {Jenh} lol
[13:45] {Jenh} the area looked beautiful and with the birds it's almost like a fairytale
01[13:45] {@Threei}  yes
01[13:45] {@Threei}  they are callled peahens :)
01[13:45] {@Threei}  Victoria is epithomy of beauty
[13:45] {Jenh} at least to me. i just have squirrels, chipmunks and the occasional stray cat around my town's park
[13:46] {Jenh} oh peahens. that sounds better than peachicks :)
[13:46] {dino} squirrels, chipmunks, rabbits, deer, and bear roaming here
01[13:47] {@Threei}  we have all that of course, plus racoons and cougars
[13:47] {dino} want to see something funny, couple weeks ago my 35 lb mutt chased a 200 lb bear through my yard
[13:47] {Jenh} remember, no selfies with bears anymore
[13:47] {dino} how about w/beers then?
[13:47] {Jenh} oh wow. good dog!
[13:47] {Jenh} beers is still legal
01[13:47] {@Threei}  https://www.facebook.com/VadymGraiferPhotography/photos/pb.483178015095052.-2207520000.1414777703./660075390738646/?type=3&theater
[13:48] {dino} yeah, she thinks she's much bigger than she really is
[13:48] {nemo} where's the picture Dino?
01[13:49] {@Threei}  here is mating ritual moment: https://www.facebook.com/VadymGraiferPhotography/photos/pb.483178015095052.-2207520000.1414777739./636935383052647/?type=3&theater
[13:49] {nemo} VWAP magnet today
[13:49] {Jenh} very pretty. like peacock abbey road
01[13:49] {@Threei}  https://www.facebook.com/VadymGraiferPhotography/photos/pb.483178015095052.-2207520000.1414777753./633634390049413/?type=3&theater
[13:49] {dino} no pics
01[13:50] {@Threei}  scroll through my facebook feed Jen, you'll get an idea of what Victoria is like
01[13:50] {@Threei}  photoblog's even better, more focused
[13:51] {Jenh} yeah. i saw some of it. it looks beautiful.
01[13:51] {@Threei}  http://www.arrestinglight.com/blog
[13:53] {Jenh} yeah. i remember the bridge pic and the bushes. i thought they were photoshopped with all the colors. now i'm just jealous :)
[13:55] {RonS} on a clear day Victoria is more than beautiful, it is stunning
[13:56] {RonS} look one way see the Channel Islands...look another view Seattle actoss the Pugent Sound w/ Mt Ranier is the background
[13:56] {Jenh} you guys are making me want to move
01[13:57] {@Threei}  Mt Baker
01[13:57] {@Threei}  Ranier is not visible from here, gota go to Seattle for that one :)
[13:57] {RonS} cast a wide view and see 3 volcanoe mountain lined yp like soldiers...look dus sounth acorss the strait
[13:58] {RonS} gues had better put my glaases back on so i can see the keys :)
[14:01] {RonS} and how about watching the US nuclear subs going in and out on their six month missions...
01[14:01] {@Threei}  did see one :)
[14:02] {Jenh} nuclear subs do not sound peacock friendly
01[14:02] {@Threei}  here is gal doing just what you describe ron:
01[14:02] {@Threei}  https://www.facebook.com/VadymGraiferPhotography/photos/pb.483178015095052.-2207520000.1414778535./721459014600283/?type=3&theater
[14:02] {Jenh} didn't know there were nuclear things there in addition to the beautiful scenery
[14:03] {dino} well jen, canada rents our ships to keep putin away
[14:03] {RonS} all the while standing in a small city that is the closest thing to England without being there...plus the people are nicer
01[14:03] {@Threei}  except me
01[14:03] {@Threei}  I had too much time with nemo
[14:03] {RonS} Jen big sub base on the US side of the Sound...
[14:03] {Jenh} i learn so much more in this chat than just stock stuff :)
[14:04] {RonS} nemo ya there?
01[14:04] {@Threei}  this is Mt Baker in the background: https://www.facebook.com/VadymGraiferPhotography/photos/pb.483178015095052.-2207520000.1414778696./666303126782539/?type=3&theater
01[14:05] {@Threei}  and better view for the context: https://www.facebook.com/VadymGraiferPhotography/photos/pb.483178015095052.-2207520000.1414778737./652928181453367/?type=3&theater
[14:05] {Jenh} the pictures are like postcards!
[14:06] {Jenh} and this is just your every day surroundings
[14:06] {Jenh} ?
[14:06] {Jenh} my park seems dingy and stupid now :)
01[14:06] {@Threei}  yes
01[14:06] {@Threei}  this last one is a pier I visit almost daily, it's in a routine walk
[14:07] {Jenh} wow that is really nice
01[14:07] {@Threei}  but don't hate me because my surroundings are beautiful
[14:07] {Jenh} :)
01[14:07] {@Threei}  I paid my dues to live here, really... 10 years in Winnipeg!
[14:09] {Jenh} not familiar with winnipeg but i take it it's far from victoria standards
01[14:10] {@Threei}  6-7 months of cruel, probably harshest on the continent, winter, with temps routinely down to -40
01[14:10] {@Threei}  mountains of snow
01[14:10] {@Threei}  mosquito-infested summer
01[14:10] {@Threei}  with high humidity +30-35
01[14:10] {@Threei}  Celsius
[14:11] {Jenh} :( ic
01[14:11] {@Threei}  city itself is as bland as they get
01[14:11] {@Threei}  eith nice parks of coyrse - merely couple hours of driving :)
[14:12] {Jenh} well ty for the tips on Victoria. i have to visit one day
[14:12] {Jenh} and keep winnipeg of my travel list
01[14:12] {@Threei}  to sum it up... if Victoria is one of top destinations for thwe world tourism and mediterrarian climate, winnipeg has unenviaable nickname "armpti of Canada"
[14:13] {Jenh} ew. definitely will avoid. thanx
[14:13] {dino} srty stop .74 =.19
[14:13] {dino} -.19
[14:14] {RonS} ...must be worst places farther north :)
01[14:14] {@Threei}  sure, but they are not capotals of the provice :)
01[14:14] {@Threei}  capitals
01[14:15] {@Threei}  you can always find some hellhole for ten thousand people... but Winnipeg is 700K city
[14:15] {RonS} lol
[14:15] {Jenh} lol
[14:16] {RonS} thinking the Province should be re-named New Jersey
01[14:16] {@Threei}  I however is very thankful to it
01[14:16] {@Threei}  it gave me perfect basis for comparisons
[14:16] {Jenh} Hey! Me and my dingy park live in New Jersey!
[14:17] {Jenh} just bc you have the best doesn't mean u can dump on the others :)
[14:18] {nemo} where in Jersey?
01[14:18] {@Threei}  no... if I have the bout of foul mood and have to tak it on someone, I turn to nemo
[14:18] {RonS} sorry but when the nicest place in the State is Princeton you got a problem...
01[14:18] {@Threei}  he can take it, and pay back
[14:18] {Jenh} north where there are parks
[14:19] {nemo} ahhh
[14:19] {nemo} I have family in Cape May
[14:19] {RonS} hey nemo is that other major sub base in Maine or VA?
[14:20] {nemo} THey do repairs in Maine...Ct is the base
[14:20] {RonS} ah
[14:20] {nemo} near Mystic
[14:20] {RonS} surprise there is enough cover there...
[14:20] {RonS} +d
[14:20] {nemo} weirdo
[14:21] {Jenh} haven't been to princeton. just looked it up. no university but it's basically like that here so ha!
[14:21] {nemo} you live in a trailer park?
[14:21] {RonS} lol
[14:21] {Jenh} wow!
[14:21] {nemo} buddy of mine owns one in NJ
06[14:21] * @Threei hands Jen 2x4 with rusty nails, to slap nemo with
[14:21] {nemo} knowing him, it's probably a sitcom down there
[14:22] {Jenh} jen hits memo with rusty nail :)
[14:22] {Jenh} *nemo. memo doesn't deserve it
06[14:22] * nemo eats rusty nails for breakfast, and washes them down with turpentine
01[14:22] {@Threei}  just one? don't be shy, you whole whole 2x4
01[14:23] {@Threei}  *you have
01[14:23] {@Threei}  your dentist is lucky guy
[14:23] {Jenh} jen hits memo with box of rusty nails
06[14:23] * nemo deflects them with The Force
[14:24] {Jenh} i don't know why i keep writing memo but you know it's meant for you
[14:24] {Jenh} just saw the force. lol
[14:24] {nemo} you've been here to long you've become a grammatical miscreant
06[14:24] * @Threei (in deep voice): nemo, jf is your father
[14:25] {nemo} now that's frickin' low
01[14:25] {@Threei}  yes, very low voice
01[14:25] {@Threei}  I practiced it
[14:25] {Jenh} thnx 3i!
01[14:25] {@Threei}  sure thing
[14:25] {nemo} spy at VWAP again, what a surprise
[14:25] {nemo} gonna be a doji of a day
01[14:26] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .30 break
01[14:26] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
[14:26] {nemo} was just noticing that
01[14:29] {@Threei}  after .35 break stop to .24
[14:38] {nemo} slice and dice afternoon
[14:41] {nemo} so two days after the FED closes out QE3 Japan goes all in
[14:45] {jfjf64} giddie up
01[14:46] {@Threei}  yes please
[14:46] {jfjf64} sell mkt
01[14:47] {@Threei}  1:1
[14:47] {dino} heading out. have great weekend all
[14:48] {jfjf64} enjoy dino
01[14:48] {@Threei}  have fun dino, see you monday
[14:48] {Jenh} have a great weekend dino!
[14:55] {RonS} got .15 vxx thanks 3i
01[14:56] {@Threei}  :)
[14:56] {jfjf64} took .10 ty
01[14:56] {@Threei}  yw
[14:56] {Jenh} got .10 too! thnkx 3i!
01[14:56] {@Threei}  yw :)
[14:58] {RonS} outta here... good weekend to all... and as lms would say:  !
[14:58] {Jenh} bye Ron. have a great weekend!
[14:58] {Jenh} !!!!! :)
01[14:59] {@Threei}  take care ron :)
[15:16] {nemo} gap up above ATH Monday, or profit taking over the weekend?
[15:19] {nemo} don't seem to want to give up 201
01[15:21] {@Threei}  Jen, overview of Oct shots: http://www.arrestinglight.com/blog/2014/10/fall-in-bloom
[15:22] {nemo} easy on your shoulder, Vad
[15:22] {Jenh} thanks
[15:25] {Jenh} it's torture looking at the pics. my trailer looks so much worse now
[15:26] {nemo} you got a doublewide?
[15:26] {Jenh} duh :)
[15:26] {nemo} piece of work
[15:27] {Jenh} why ty
06[15:27] * nemo hears Jeff Foxworthy in his head
[15:30] {Jenh} usually when i meet someone who hasn't been to nj they just ask me about snookie and th jersey shore people.
[15:30] {Jenh} i think jeff is farther south but i could be wrong
[15:30] {nemo} yeah but the mobile home humor applies
[15:30] {Jenh} very true
[15:30] {nemo} especially down in the barrens
[15:31] {nemo} When I'd go through there I'd hear the theme song from Deliverance
[15:31] {Jenh} learning more about nj too. didn't know about the barrens
[15:31] {Jenh} :)
[15:34] {nemo} then of course there's the wilds of Newark and Jersey City
[15:35] {Jenh} been to newark. wouldn't recommend
[15:35] {nemo} nope
01[15:41] {@Threei}  OK guys, no more trades
01[15:41] {@Threei}  thank you all, let's have great relaxing weekend
[15:41] {Jenh} ok. thanks 3i!
01[15:41] {@Threei}  see you Monday
[15:41] {Jenh} have a great weekend everyone!
[15:41] {Jenh} and Happy Halloween!

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Oct 30 2014

Another solid day of nice gains, with this one taking the cake. 1:5, aggressive entry for the breakout on VXX.





Session Time: Thu Oct 30 00:00:00 2014
[09:04] {cosmo}  Bullion not happy without QE?
01[09:04] {@Threei}  who would have doubt that
01[09:05] {@Threei}  I said it long ago... 1000, then under
01[09:05] {@Threei}  then panic starts
[09:05] {cosmo} upward panic?
[09:07] {dino} gm
01[09:07] {@Threei}  dino :)
01[09:08] {@Threei}  downward first...
[09:08] {cosmo} k
[09:08] {RonS} hi guys
[09:08] {cosmo} I'll get the  hang of it...
01[09:08] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:10] {Jenh} gm everyone!
[09:11] {RonS} morning lms (little miss sunshine)
01[09:11] {@Threei}  jen :)
[09:12] {Jenh} gm Ron! thanks for the nickname
[09:12] {Jenh} if only you knew me :)
[09:12] {RonS} just be glad nemo comes on late...
[09:13] {RonS} he hates morning slautations...
[09:13] {RonS} salutations
[09:13] {Jenh} oh really? didn't realize 
[09:13] {Jenh} i hate mornings too
[09:14] {Jenh} not so much salutations but just the getting out of bed part 
[09:15] {dino} lol ron, lms
01[09:15] {@Threei}  wait... you guys are getting out of bed for trading??
01[09:15] {@Threei}  man... next thing I know you have to actually wake up too
[09:15] {dino} unfortunately yes. banned to the basement office for trading
[09:16] {Jenh} you can stay in bed for trading?! my world has changed
[09:16] {cosmo} a lazy boy is a good compromise
[09:19] {Jenh} that's a good thought too 
[09:21] {RonS} lol avp  they beat for what?...first time in 10 years?
01[09:21] {@Threei}  nemo comes in, I am going to make his morning absolute nightmare
[09:21] {cosmo} and there's the recumbent bike option for the more active among us
[09:21] {Jenh} lol
[09:29] {jfjf64} morin
01[09:29] {@Threei}  jf :)
[09:30] {dino} pcrx? earnings beat
[09:30] {ese} morning
01[09:30] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -V +4.4% (earnings)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -CRUS +1.6% (earnings)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -JDSU +3.8% (earnings)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -LOPE+10% (earnings)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -ALU+14% (earnings)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -LAKE +37% (provides bullish update on business activity re: Ebola crisis incl new gov't orders)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -LVLT +2.9% (to enter S&P500 Index on 11/4)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  ese :)
01[09:31] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:31] {@Threei}  -AKAM -2.3% (earnings)
01[09:31] {@Threei}  -GLUU -16% (earnings)
01[09:31] {@Threei}  -KRFT -3.0% (earnings)
01[09:31] {@Threei}  -WTW -8.9% (earnings)
01[09:31] {@Threei}  -RGR -9.0% (earnings)
01[09:31] {@Threei}  -OCN -1.3% (earnings)
01[09:31] {@Threei}  -PRXL -13% (earnings)
01[09:31] {@Threei}  -ARAY -11% (earnings)
01[09:31] {@Threei}  -TWTR -1.6% (VP of engineering said to be in plans to leave company along w/another key engineer)
01[09:31] {@Threei}  -WES -4.5% (prices 7.5M unit offering @$70.85/unit)
01[09:32] {@Threei} Short Setup: MGM  .40 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .50 
01[09:34] {@Threei}  nemo!! Greetings and salutations!! Our day finally makes sense with your entry, our morning beam of joy and the very first ray of smiling sun!!
[09:34] {RonS} shots fired...
[09:34] {RonS} and i guess you hit him...
01[09:35] {@Threei}  no go
[09:37] {cosmo} gee...the man sounds like a real inspiration...
01[09:37] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  75 break
01[09:37] {@Threei}  If holds  .90 
01[09:39] {@Threei}  1:2  
01[09:39] {@Threei}  1:3  
01[09:39] {@Threei}  1:1 was skipped
01[09:42] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .70 break
01[09:42] {@Threei}  If holds  .60 
01[09:45] {@Threei}  no go
[09:47] {dino} \what am i missing on wtw and pcrx?
[09:47] {dino} arii too
[09:47] {RonS} crus beat and raised
[09:50] {dino} sm l crus .15
[09:52] {dino} crus stop .98 -.17
01[09:53] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  74 break
01[09:53] {@Threei}  If holds  .90 
01[09:54] {@Threei}  change to .90
01[09:54] {@Threei}  If holds  .80 
01[09:55] {@Threei}  1:1  
01[09:56] {@Threei}  1:2  
[09:56] {nemo} you and your counter trend trades
[09:57] {dino} .00 trig crus
[09:57] {Jenh} is that it?
01[09:57] {@Threei}  well, I prefer trend but after dollar and half drop recversal is kind of a given thing to look for
[09:57] {Jenh} i was trying to figure out how these worked so well
[10:03] {nemo} It's amazing how u whistle through the minefield
01[10:14] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .20 break
01[10:14] {@Threei}  If holds  .30 
[10:15] {dino} pcrx smr l .73
01[10:16] {@Threei}  Invalidated  
[10:19] {dino} out pcrx 92.10, +1.37
[10:21] {dino} tough crowd
01[10:21] {@Threei}  we envy in grave silence
[10:22] {nemo} you're consistency gets boring
[10:22] {nemo} need to see you bleed heavily 
01[10:22] {@Threei}  you're???
[10:22] {nemo} your
[10:22] {nemo} sorry
[10:22] {Jenh} lol gj dino
06[10:22] * @Threei slaps nemo around a bit with a grammar book
[10:22] {nemo} haven't started drinking this morning
[10:22] {dino} ;)
[10:22] {dino} pcrx dropping back, maybe re-test in works
01[10:25] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .20 break
01[10:25] {@Threei}  If holds  .10 
01[10:28] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .60 break
01[10:28] {@Threei}  If holds  .70 
01[10:29] {@Threei}  Invalidated  FB 
01[10:30] {@Threei}  1:1  CAT 
[10:31] {nemo} ECB to start buying bonds in November
01[10:31] {@Threei}  1:2  
01[10:32] {@Threei}  FB valid again
[10:33] {nemo} jumped
01[10:33] {@Threei}  1:1  
01[10:37] {@Threei}  1:3  CAT 
01[10:37] {@Threei}  out
[10:42] {dino} pcrx wall at .00, keeps hitting and dropping. ranging 89.60s-90
[10:42] {dino} damn, missed it typing this
01[10:42] {@Threei}  grrr FB
01[10:47] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .20 break
01[10:47] {@Threei}  If holds  .30 
01[10:48] {@Threei}  1:1  
01[10:49] {@Threei}  see nemo... I go with trend when setup is there :)
01[10:49] {@Threei}  1:2  
01[10:49] {@Threei}  day looks brighter
[10:54] {nemo} FB going for gap close
[11:01] {dino} arii smr l .20
[11:04] {nemo} FB
01[11:05] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .70 break
01[11:05] {@Threei}  If holds  .60 
[11:09] {dino} amazing rcpt ph2 study keeps the stock up 40 pts
[11:13] {dino} adeed crus calls/time
01[11:13] {@Threei}  no go
[11:17] {dino} out arii .80, +.60
[11:17] {jfjf64} nice
[11:17] {dino} ty
[11:29] {jfjf64} gld
[11:30] {jfjf64} thinkin lower
[11:31] {ese} I am watching........looking for the absolute right moment and then I'm going to pounce with avengence
01[11:32] {@Threei}  I am scared to ask who you are going to pounce at
[11:32] {jfjf64} never heard ya lk that ese
[11:32] {ese}  a stock man!!!!!!!! a stock!!!!!!!!!!!
01[11:32] {@Threei}  drummers can be very dangerous people, jf
[11:32] {ese} hmmmmmm could be the new es jf
[11:32] {nemo} yeah, they think they're musicians
[11:33] {jfjf64} that snare drum went to ya head
[11:33] {ese} big show tomorrow night vad at the Armories ....Fright Night with The Midnights
[11:33] {jfjf64} put a little jjimmy Darren on relax
[11:35] {ese} http://www.marymanningcentre.com/blog/revving-fright-night-midnights
[11:35] {ese} Thats me trying to get the skeleton to sing on mic
[11:37] {ese} heres the poster: http://www.marymanningcentre.com/event/fright-night-midnights
01[11:37] {@Threei}  lol, funny shot ese
[11:42] {ese} tks
[11:43] {nemo} dcc ese
[11:47] {ese} opps sorry......that is actually nemo i'm trying to get to sing on the mic
[11:48] {nemo} mesodactyl
[11:48] {nemo} fb could be a short arund here
01[11:51] {@Threei}  Quantitative easing is officially over in the US and global markets are digesting the Fed's very well-telegraphed move. Meanwhile, US GDP may be good or not so good, depending on your analysis. German October CPI data suggest that Europe is nowhere near getting uninflation under control
[11:54] {nemo} that's probably  the bottom in FB, 76.8 retrace of that swing low to the recent ATH
[11:56] {dino} lol "un"inflation, they are afraid to speak the truth....deflation
[11:59] {nemo} There's no uninflation...I watch containers in the grocery store get smaller all the time...Electricity just went up 37%.  I see clothes prices going up..so much bullshit
[12:00] {cosmo} they once said: Dis-inflation....fwiw
[12:00] {nemo} FB @ inflection point
[12:01] {nemo} spy trying to get to resistance above 199
[12:01] {RonS} down south they say datinflation...
[12:05] {cosmo} so what would be the best deflation plays?
[12:06] {dino} don't think usa has that problem cosmo
[12:07] {nemo} Yeah, it's a lie of statistics
[12:07] {nemo} THere's no deflation
[12:07] {dino} but yuo would short hard assets, or mining stocks, etc
[12:10] {nemo} IWM looks like it's gonna break higher
[12:10] {cosmo} Silver wants $15, for example...
[12:20] {nemo} FB
01[12:21] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .15 break
[12:23] {nemo} finnies ready to break higher
[12:23] {Jenh} finnies?
[12:23] {nemo} financials
[12:23] {nemo} XLF
[12:23] {Jenh} ah thx
[12:23] {Jenh} thank you
[12:24] {ese} take care...make a great day all...cya tomorrow
01[12:25] {@Threei}  Invalidated  
[12:44] {nathan} Hi all
01[12:44] {@Threei}  hey nathan
01[12:49] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .30 break
01[12:49] {@Threei}  If holds  .40 
01[12:50] {@Threei}  1:1  
01[13:11] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .10 break
01[13:11] {@Threei}  If holds  114 
[13:12] {Jenh} +.20 on FB, thanks 3!
[13:13] {Jenh} *3i!
01[13:13] {@Threei}  :)
01[13:17] {@Threei}  1:1  
01[13:18] {@Threei}  1:2  
[13:19] {nemo} think that closed the spy gap
01[13:19] {@Threei}  1:3  
01[13:19] {@Threei}  out
01[13:20] {@Threei}  that cements the day as firmly and nicely positive
01[13:20] {@Threei}  whatever you do from this moment on, make sure that prodfit preservation procedure is followed religiously
[13:36] {nemo} boy those are some frickin strange candles
[13:36] {RonS} hearing goofy things happening in the options market...some stocks eg de
[13:38] {RonS} googl moved $3 and options did not budge
[13:38] {RonS} IB says CTA and OPRA report having issues disseminating market data in US stocks and options
[13:38] {dino} arii smr l .90
[13:39] {RonS} plug
[13:40] {RonS} whoa quote data went down on Fidelity
[13:42] {RonS} never seen it happen before...seems restored
01[13:46] {@Threei}  PLUG Ticks higher on chatter of a contract award
[13:47] {nemo} freestockcharts toast
[13:48] {dino} lol, plug, all .08
[13:48] {RonS} all?
[13:49] {nemo} NYSE out
[13:49] {RonS} out of what?
[13:49] {nemo} not functioning
01[13:49] {@Threei}  out of USA?
[13:50] {RonS} russian hack?
[13:51] {Jenh} odd charts on my end. 
[13:51] {Jenh} missing data for 10 min and then starting up again now
[13:51] {Jenh} only for spy tho
[13:53] {RonS} hearing nyse back...
[13:59] {RonS} dino, got any phone numbers?
[13:59] {dino} ???
[13:59] {RonS} ned to call someone to trade arii...
[13:59] {RonS} need
01[14:00] {@Threei}  hehe
[14:00] {dino} yeah, i froze that one
01[14:00] {@Threei}  "trades by appointment"
[14:00] {RonS} moving slower than a freakin train
[14:00] {dino} lol, freight cars
[14:01] {dino} but its up .28
[14:06] {dino} out arii .50, +.60; not bad for a slow og
[14:06] {dino} dog
[14:08] {dino} huh, expected a comment from you ron
[14:08] {RonS} still in
[14:10] {dino} no wonder you were complaining, gl
[14:10] {dino} .60 vwap area
[14:11] {RonS} with this volume those people don't care about vwap...
[14:12] {dino} good point, never considered that
[14:26] {dino} arii, back to 65.60s again imo
01[14:34] {@Threei}  gs!
01[14:34] {@Threei}  man, are you a rare bird these days
[14:35] {goinshort} Been busy with the new house
01[14:35] {@Threei}  gathered as much :)
01[14:35] {@Threei}  as dino says, "real estate distractions"
[14:35] {goinshort} yes it does
01[14:36] {@Threei}  (same justification of slackiness as any hobo)
01[14:37] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .95 break
01[14:37] {@Threei}  If holds  .85 
01[14:37] {@Threei}  aggressive for 31 break
[14:38] {dino} welcome gs
[14:39] {goinshort} hey dino
[14:40] {nemo} free stock charts starting to work again
[14:41] {jfjf64} wasn't wking
[14:41] {nemo} no shit sherlock
[14:42] {nemo} sheesh
[14:42] {nemo} VWAP trashed now
[14:42] {jfjf64} you don't use vwap on logix
01[14:43] {@Threei}  Invalidated  
[14:43] {nemo} yep, but with quotes across the system fubar, nothing right
[14:43] {RonS} V WAP'd eh?
01[14:45] {@Threei}  you summed nemo's life in 5 letters
01[14:45] {@Threei}  4 of them capitalized
01[14:45] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .90 break
[14:45] {jfjf64} nemo without vwap
01[14:46] {@Threei}  vwapless
01[14:46] {@Threei}  If holds  .80 
[14:46] {jfjf64} priceless
[14:47] {jfjf64} pricele$$
[14:47] {nemo} wow what a jump in vxx
[14:47] {nemo} wasn't expecting that
01[14:47] {@Threei}  but hey... if he can live lesless, he can overcome anything life throws at him
01[14:48] {@Threei}  1:1  
01[14:48] {@Threei}  1:2  
[14:48] {nemo} that one pissed me off
[14:48] {dino} back in 30 or so
01[14:48] {@Threei}  and that, you vwapless kiddies, how it's done
[14:49] {nemo} probably good to .30ish
[14:50] {jfjf64} 31.30 vwap
01[14:50] {@Threei}  1:3  
[14:50] {nemo} .50 resistance
01[14:51] {@Threei}  this one was for you gs
[14:51] {jfjf64} no shit sherlock
[14:51] {nemo} hehehehe
01[14:51] {@Threei}  lol
[14:51] {jfjf64} lol
[14:51] {nemo} we used to say that to each other as kids
[14:51] {jfjf64} some crew we got here
[14:51] {jfjf64} pricele$$
[14:51] {nemo} Les Le$$ too
[14:52] {jfjf64} le$$ for $ure
01[14:52] {@Threei}  btw, forgot to show you my bvest catch of the last weekend: https://www.facebook.com/VadymGraiferPhotography/photos/a.488848774527976.1073741828.483178015095052/736992696380248/?type=1&theater
[14:54] {Jenh} is that a peacock???
[14:54] {goinshort} Thanks V! nailed it good! 
[14:54] {jfjf64} that a keeper vg
01[14:54] {@Threei}  yes jen
01[14:54] {@Threei}  gs :)
01[14:54] {@Threei}  1:4
[14:54] {jfjf64} yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
01[14:54] {@Threei}  1:5
01[14:54] {@Threei}  out
[14:54] {jfjf64} out
[14:55] {nemo} nah, should have put stop under .30
[14:55] {jfjf64} nice vg ty
01[14:55] {@Threei}  :)
[14:56] {jfjf64} take picture that chart vg 
01[14:56] {@Threei}  walked right toward me and sverved last second to get around
01[14:57] {@Threei}  as if played game of chicken
[14:57] {jfjf64} give peacock run for money
01[14:57] {@Threei}  lol
[14:57] {jfjf64} ya liked aggressive entry also
[14:57] {nemo} see how VX holding .30
01[14:57] {@Threei}  my favorite
[14:57] {jfjf64} once hit .30  rocket
[14:58] {nemo} ahhh...vxx
[14:58] {nemo} looks iffy now though
[14:58] {jfjf64} im sorry 31.00
[14:59] {jfjf64} 1:5 got my blood going
[14:59] {nemo} and I thought it was your dog walking around naked in front of you
[14:59] {jfjf64} lol
[15:00] {nemo} Yep, I'm a coupla' sandwiches short of a picnic
[15:00] {jfjf64} ya dow syndrome really kickin in
[15:00] {nemo} "Down" syndrome
[15:00] {jfjf64} I like dow
[15:00] {jfjf64} .30
[15:00] {jfjf64} vxx
01[15:01] {@Threei}  jf, for you: http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2014/10/oct-30-2014.html
[15:02] {jfjf64} nice
[15:09] {jfjf64} is that default chart logix
01[15:10] {@Threei}  no
01[15:10] {@Threei}  reconfigured it to my liking
01[15:10] {@Threei}  added BBs with my parameters
[15:10] {jfjf64} I like
01[15:11] {@Threei}  I glad
[15:11] {jfjf64} lol
01[15:11] {@Threei}  :)
01[15:11] {@Threei}  when it comes to butchering english, I best
[15:24] {jfjf64} x
[15:27] {dino} .
[15:30] {dino} ron, you get out of arii?
[15:31] {RonS} ya at b/e...
[15:32] {nemo} so Doug Kass tweets:  Douglas Kass @DougKass
[15:32] {nemo} I am long of Tim Cook and short of Apple.
[15:32] {nemo}  thestreet.com/story/12876150…
[15:32] {nemo} and
[15:32] {nemo} thestreet.com/story/12876150…
[15:32] {nemo} Boy, talk about sticking your chin out
01[15:34] {@Threei}  IWM, looking to enter on pullback unfder .40
01[15:42] {@Threei}  nah, got away
[15:43] {jfjf64} fb
01[15:44] {@Threei}  shoudl have taken .45 instead of trying to be cute
01[15:44] {@Threei}  cute is not my forte anyway, lol
01[15:45] {@Threei}  ok guys, thank you all
[15:45] {jfjf64} ty
01[15:45] {@Threei}  have a great evening, see you tomorrow
[15:45] {Jenh} ty 
[15:45] {jfjf64} enjoy
[15:45] {Jenh} good night everyone!

[15:45] {dino} gn