Very nice day with solid gains, calm trading without hectic movements. "Another day in the office" type.
Session Time: Tue Nov 04 00:00:00 2014
[09:00] {dino} gm 3i, glad i dumped those kors calls last week
01[09:00] {@Threei} morning dino
01[09:00] {@Threei} no kidding
[09:15] {nemo} These guys were an institution on NPR for 25 years and were always hilarious. You might find there commencement address worth listening to: http://goo.gl/7xtlih
[09:17] {Jenh} gm
01[09:18] {@Threei} jen :)
[09:18] {nemo} twtr dropping
[09:19] {Jenh} sad news re car talk
[09:19] {Jenh} they were a great team
[09:19] {JoebiWan} yup. used to listen all the time
[09:20] {nemo} yeah, makes sense why they stopped it a couple of years ago now
[09:21] {nemo} I didn't realize, when I was standing in Harvard Square, looking up at the window that said "Dewey, Cheatem & Howe" that those were their offices
[09:22] {Jenh} o cool
[09:22] {nemo} Cracked me up, actually made me think of The Three Stooges
[09:23] {ese} gm
01[09:23] {@Threei} ese :)
01[09:24] {@Threei} Upside:
01[09:24] {@Threei} -VSR +10% (awarded $5.1M chemical splash protective suit framework contract from UK Govt)
01[09:24] {@Threei} -MWW +7% (earnings)
01[09:24] {@Threei} -THC +4% (earnings)
01[09:24] {@Threei} -ALLT +3.7% (earnings)
01[09:24] {@Threei} -WNR +2.8% (earnings)
01[09:24] {@Threei} Downside:
01[09:24] {@Threei} -SALE -24% (earnings)
01[09:24] {@Threei} -HLF -14% (earnings)
01[09:24] {@Threei} -RMTI -14% (FDA concerned by high dropout rate for the Trimeric studies)
01[09:24] {@Threei} -S -14% (earnings)
01[09:24] {@Threei} -KORS -10% (earnings; lowered SSS guidance)
01[09:24] {@Threei} -CHGG -10% (earnings)
01[09:24] {@Threei} -PCLN -6% (earnings)
01[09:24] {@Threei} -REGN -5.6% (earnings)
01[09:30] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB .20 break
01[09:30] {@Threei} too fast
01[09:30] {@Threei} disregard
01[09:31] {@Threei} lol... 1L1 if you got in on bounce
01[09:31] {@Threei} 1:1
[09:32] {Jfjf64} Mornin
01[09:32] {@Threei} jf :)
01[09:32] {@Threei} sheesh TWTR
[09:33] {Jfjf64} Dal
01[09:33] {@Threei} Long Setup: CCL .10 break
01[09:33] {@Threei} If holds 40
01[09:34] {@Threei} Invalidated
01[09:35] {@Threei} Long Setup: MGM .65 break
01[09:35] {@Threei} If holds .60
01[09:37] {@Threei} Invalidated
01[09:38] {@Threei} Long Setup: TWTR .25 break
01[09:38] {@Threei} If holds .15
01[09:39] {@Threei} 1:1
01[09:39] {@Threei} 1:2
01[09:40] {@Threei} going for 1:4
01[09:40] {@Threei} 1:3
01[09:41] {@Threei} nope, that's ot
01[09:41] {@Threei} it
[09:41] {JoebiWan} sweet trade. ty
01[09:41] {@Threei} yw
[09:41] {nemo} indexes coming in
[09:41] {Jenh} thx 3i!
01[09:41] {@Threei} SPY rug pull
01[09:42] {@Threei} yw jen
[09:42] {Jenh} .15!
01[09:43] {@Threei} Raven is back on his perch
01[09:43] {@Threei} cosmo is still lost in the cyberspace
[09:43] {nemo} hope he shits on ese
[09:43] {RonS} sheesh
[09:43] {JoebiWan} phaha
[09:44] {ese} whaaaaaaaaa.........wha'd I ever do to you
[09:44] {nemo} you were born
[09:45] {ese} ouch
[09:45] {Raven} lol
[09:45] {ese} greatest saying in the world...."don't get mad...get even"......
[09:45] {nemo} yep...and you've been saying that since I got here
[09:46] {Raven} {--- circling ese
[09:46] {nemo} wow...we got a rise out of Raven
[09:46] {Jenh} nooooo!
01[09:46] {@Threei} Long Setup: TZA .70 break
[09:46] {Raven} {--- circling nemo
06[09:46] * nemo loads goose gun
01[09:46] {@Threei} change to .60 break
01[09:47] {@Threei} If holds .55
[09:47] {nemo} How Raven sees the world: http://goo.gl/5dQFve
[09:47] {Raven} goose this!
[09:47] {ese} lol
01[09:47] {@Threei} lol
[09:47] {Jenh} lol
[09:47] {nemo} I use motion guided rounds
[09:48] {nemo} they have a 24' proximity trigger, with a 20 yard blast radius
[09:48] {ese} Raven...buddy......we got some business to take of in Boston I can see.......I'll pick you up on the way down.......and ahhhh...lets take care of this sooner than later
[09:48] {Raven} {--- uses drones
[09:49] {Raven} and does not ride in car with Communists
06[09:50] * nemo pees pants
[09:50] {dino} wlk?
[09:50] {RonS} wlk met
01[09:50] {@Threei} (US) Preview: Nov IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism expected at 10:00 ET
01[09:54] {@Threei} oversat TZA... .68 - .69 was a good moment to partial out
[09:56] {Jenh} twtr?
[09:57] {Jenh} dal
[09:57] {Jenh} sorry meant to write twtr but not dal
01[09:57] {@Threei} numbers in 3
[09:57] {Jenh} ?
[09:57] {Jfjf64} Question my computer not letting me into trading room. Microsoft security essentials blocked content on this website any suggestions I'm on iPad now
01[09:58] {@Threei} 10:00, a few economic numbers are coming
[09:58] {Jenh} o thx
[09:58] {nemo} I have a suggestion JF: VODKA
01[09:58] {@Threei} block microsoft securoty essentials
[09:58] {nemo} yeah, they suck
[09:59] {Jfjf64} Seems like that memo yesterday disaster today starting off
01[09:59] {@Threei} it blocks mirc??
[09:59] {Jfjf64} Yes vg
[09:59] {Jfjf64} First time
01[09:59] {@Threei} lol... imbecilic software
[09:59] {RonS} use it here never had a problem...
[10:00] {nemo} it's JF Ron
01[10:00] {@Threei} *(US) NOV IBD/TIPP ECONOMIC OPTIMISM: 46.4 V 46.5E
01[10:00] {@Threei} 09:00 *(US) SEPT FACTORY ORDERS: -0.6% V -0.6%E
01[10:00] {@Threei} stop to .57
[10:01] {dino} wlk sm l .51 gappy, wider
[10:03] {jfjf64} nemo if we didn't hv women in room I would tell yo wher to stick ya finger hit not ya nose
06[10:03] * nemo quivers with fear
[10:03] {jfjf64} im back
[10:03] {jfjf64} lol
[10:04] {jfjf64} turned on fire wall
[10:04] {nemo} It didn't work jf
[10:04] {nemo} you're still here
[10:04] {jfjf64} now hv to turn off for logix
[10:04] {jfjf64} lol
[10:07] {nemo} very little on algo so far
01[10:08] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB .55 break
01[10:09] {@Threei} If holds .65
[10:11] {nemo} volume patterns on spy very weird
01[10:13] {@Threei} rorshach spots
[10:13] {nemo} it's the numbers of shares being traded, the counts very odd
[10:13] {nemo} the sub 100 odd numbers
01[10:13] {@Threei} no go
[10:14] {JoebiWan} brb
[10:14] {nemo} IWM leading the way here stealthily
[10:17] {nemo} FB
[10:23] {nemo} wow only 19mil spy volume
[10:24] {jfjf64} what is avg for this time
[10:25] {nemo} hard to say because it rotates, but multiply that by 6.5 and that gives you the day
[10:25] {nemo} put it this way, the last 20 days have seen 173.46 mill, you're headed for about 120 today so far
[10:26] {jfjf64} ty
[10:26] {jfjf64} a lot traders out at the polls
[10:26] {nemo} FB looks short
[10:27] {ese} L kors .90
[10:29] {nemo} FB looks short under .70
[10:29] {nemo} stop would be above .80
01[10:29] {@Threei} frikin TZA
01[10:30] {@Threei} self-inflicted wound, shouldn't have to rush to tighten stop
[10:31] {ese} dino you following kors at all
[10:31] {jfjf64} ty nemo
[10:31] {jfjf64} 1:2
[10:32] {jfjf64} lets get to vwap
[10:33] {jfjf64} 1;3
[10:33] {jfjf64} go nemo
[10:34] {nemo} broken clock moment
[10:34] {jfjf64} funny how bounced right off vwap
01[10:35] {@Threei} watching VXX for pullback entry
[10:35] {jfjf64} lets go vg
[10:35] {ese} there we go.....come on...let the short covering begin
[10:35] {ese} daaaaaaaaaaa
[10:36] {ese} come on kors ya turd
[10:38] {jfjf64} .20 vg wd be nice
[10:38] {ese} kors sell stop .45
[10:39] {ese} stop rather .45
[10:45] {dino} wlk gap fill, may
[10:46] {nemo} HFC
[10:46] {nemo} spready though
[10:47] {ese} Almost stopped …ya two bit no good fur nuttin crawlin lower than a snakes belly in a wagon rut stock ya…..
[10:47] {nemo} relative of yours?
[10:48] {ese} in a manner of speakin
[10:48] {Jenh} lol
01[10:48] {@Threei} missed VXX... too shallow pullback
[10:48] {jfjf64} yes
01[10:49] {@Threei} was counting for something under .30
[10:51] {ese} daaaaaa stopped .46 -.44
[10:51] {Jenh} sorry about that ese
[10:52] {dino} wlk sm l .16
[10:52] {ese} not a prob.......dino size shs 400
[10:52] {dino} nxst sm l .00
[10:52] {dino} stop .68
[10:52] {ese} was trying to channel dino but it didn't work.......he closed his mind off to me
[10:53] {dino} sorry ese, sidetracked
[10:53] {ese} lol
[10:53] {Jenh} lol
[10:53] {ese} you watch though.......this is going to bump up to about 70.75 or so........
[10:54] {ese} look at that flippin thing now
[10:54] {Jenh} anyone who plays shares with $1 spreads is probably quite sidetracked :)
[10:55] {dino} ;)
[10:55] {dino} nxst stop -.32
[10:55] {ese} i'm blaming everybody....everywhere....even vads book....when a stock mainlines up against a price like that it's suppose to go up.......and I believed in that book
[10:55] {ese} i'm destroyed
[10:56] {JoebiWan} dino, whats ur stop on wlk?
[10:56] {dino} lod break, only 300
[10:57] {ese} L kors .88
[10:57] {JoebiWan} ok... only 100 shrs here
[10:57] {Jenh} ese, u r right with hors
[10:57] {Jenh} *kors
[10:57] {dino} if no stop, should do 66+
[10:57] {JoebiWan} ty
[10:57] {ese} tks
[10:58] {ese} i'll be right when this things hits 71.00
[10:58] {dino} jenh,talking to ese did you mean to put a w in front?
[10:58] {Jenh} no!
[10:58] {dino} lol
[10:58] {Jenh} only meant kors. darn spell check
[10:59] {dino} wlk, trades wicked
[11:00] {ese} ohhhh. just noticed the H........lol
[11:04] {ese} dino what da ya think about kors
[11:04] {nemo} looks long
[11:04] {nemo} but seller at 72
[11:04] {dino} buy vwap sell here
[11:04] {nemo} forming C&H
[11:04] {dino} that could be breakout, hihger high
01[11:05] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .50 break
[11:05] {nemo} as I said, long
01[11:05] {@Threei} If holds .40
[11:06] {nemo} this .50 level resistance for kors
[11:06] {ese} out kors .47 +.60
[11:06] {dino} gj
[11:06] {Jenh} gj
[11:06] {ese} sorry +.59
[11:06] {dino} well then that sucks
[11:06] {Jenh} still great
01[11:07] {@Threei} lol
[11:07] {dino} :)
[11:07] {ese} ya 3/4 lot to make up for the loss
01[11:07] {@Threei} don't encourage him jen, 1 cent short today, 2 tomorrow... ina year he will brag about losses
[11:07] {Jenh} lol
[11:08] {ese} excuse me!!!!! I represent that statement
01[11:08] {@Threei} Invalidated
[11:08] {ese} the statement?
01[11:08] {@Threei} not you ese, IWM
[11:09] {dino} 07 fast scroll red
[11:09] {ese} ya sure......I've heard that one before
[11:09] {nemo} bounce time indexes
[11:10] {nemo} S3 .08 on SPY natural whole number support too
[11:10] {nemo} wouldn't be surprised if they check the other side
01[11:10] {@Threei} man... cosmo is in tech hell
01[11:10] {@Threei} bounce is close
[11:11] {ese} i must be missin something....what news came out today that has made the mrkts tank
[11:11] {nemo} well, at least he's not with ese
01[11:11] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .35 break
01[11:11] {@Threei} If holds .25
[11:11] {ese} huh
[11:11] {RonS} NATO saying Russian troops approaching Ukraine border
[11:11] {nemo} tech hell is better
[11:11] {ese} oh.......ha ha ha........
01[11:12] {@Threei} approaching? they are inside, lol
[11:12] {dino} all putin needs to do is shut off the gas pipeline and its his
[11:13] {RonS} just posting what crossed news feed for the guy who refuses to read anything then asks what the hell is going on... :)
01[11:13] {@Threei} hehe
[11:13] {dino} thanks ron, appreciate it
01[11:14] {@Threei} not really dino, it's no longer that simple
01[11:15] {@Threei} 1:1
01[11:15] {@Threei} his war turned Ukraine into absolute pool of hatred for him and Russia
[11:16] {Jenh} 3i, how did you see this happening?
01[11:16] {@Threei} turn off gas to Ukraine, they will start siphoning it from european pipe
[11:16] {Jenh} iwm not russia and ukraine
01[11:17] {@Threei} turn off that, you break all your pobligations and lose trading partners you depend on for survival
01[11:17] {@Threei} and their economy is at the brink as it is
01[11:17] {@Threei} I didn't jen
01[11:17] {@Threei} that's not how I trade
01[11:17] {@Threei} I don't look in the future, guess or predict
01[11:17] {@Threei} I simply take valid setups
[11:18] {ese} exactly....thats old news.....Russians have never left Ukraine.....
[11:18] {Jenh} how did you see the set up then because I didn't see anything there
01[11:18] {@Threei} lose some, win some, but as long as setups are valid, statistically I am ahead
[11:18] {Jenh} what did i miss
[11:18] {dino} he has a third eye
[11:18] {Jenh} i think this is true
01[11:18] {@Threei} it's a trend reversal setup, BMR in 111 Trades
[11:18] {nemo} thank god only one mouth
[11:18] {Jenh} thx
[11:19] {Jenh} y can't i read faster
[11:19] {nemo} does your family tree have branches?
01[11:20] {@Threei} and yes, I do have third eye, but I had the cosmetic surgery to hide it. Double benefit: no one knows I see them through, and I am just a tad less ugly
01[11:20] {@Threei} no single word nemo
01[11:20] {@Threei} just don't
[11:20] {nemo} hehehehehehe
01[11:20] {@Threei} :)
[11:20] {nemo} wow, was just loading the barrel
[11:20] {Jenh} arg it's at the end of the book
01[11:20] {@Threei} I could just see him trying to chose from 15 responses
[11:20] {dino} we call it making snowballs
[11:21] {nemo} yeah, that's why I was so slow
01[11:21] {@Threei} see? third eye
[11:21] {ese} am outta here....wife has made cookies for my calculus class.....don't want to be late
01[11:21] {@Threei} take care ese
[11:21] {ese} actually....have an interesting story about that class
[11:21] {nemo} hemp cookies?
[11:21] {Jenh} bye ese
01[11:21] {@Threei} lol
[11:21] {Jenh} lol
[11:21] {dino} cya ese
01[11:22] {@Threei} ok IWM, let's do it
[11:22] {jfjf64} holding nicely
[11:22] {ese} no not hemp cookies....2 years a go there was a young lady who put in my class and she was from Afghanistan
[11:22] {dino} joebi, wlk
[11:22] {nemo} ahhhh....poppy cookies
[11:23] {ese} she showed me this picture of her in a militia holding an AK47
[11:23] {dino} vwap 66.40
[11:23] {nemo} kors 72 seller came back
[11:24] {ese} My class was her first day in a Canadian school and it just happened to be the day that my wife had made cookies for the class....she couldn't believe it was happening to her
[11:24] {JoebiWan} yeah, didn't trigger my .99 order
[11:24] {dino} thought you had 100
[11:24] {dino} oh, sell you mean
[11:24] {JoebiWan} correct
[11:24] {ese} so...2 years later....she is back in my class and one of the big things she remember was the kindness of my wife
[11:24] {JoebiWan} still holding?
[11:24] {Jenh} aw, ese that's so nice
[11:24] {dino} pretty cool ese
[11:24] {dino} yes
[11:25] {dino} it wants vwap imo
01[11:25] {@Threei} 1:2
[11:25] {ese} she wrote my wife a note a week ago....it was an awesome note asking very politely if my wife woudl do cokies for them again
01[11:26] {@Threei} quite a story ese
[11:26] {nemo} http://goo.gl/UcGOqW
[11:26] {Jenh} (can't cry in trading)
01[11:26] {@Threei} thanks for sharing
[11:26] {dino} s3 ultimate
[11:26] {ese} talk about some of the crap that goes on in this world....there is no way on gods green earth that a 16 year old kid should ever have to have an AK47
[11:26] {dino} for sporting fun
[11:27] {ese} not even
01[11:27] {@Threei} by the way, speaking of Ukraine... where is Alex?? he owes me a 6-pack
[11:27] {ese} make a great day all...cya tomorrow
[11:27] {dino} cya
[11:27] {Jenh} thx for the story ese. bye
[11:27] {nemo} ese lucky grew up in a greenhouse
01[11:27] {@Threei} Ukraine's territorial integrity is no more, ad he waged 6-pack of beer of my choice
[11:27] {Jenh} nemo!
01[11:28] {@Threei} good boy IWM
[11:28] {nemo} what?
01[11:28] {@Threei} 1:3
01[11:28] {@Threei} out
[11:28] {Jenh} to say he grew up in a greenhouse
[11:28] {Jenh} after his touching story
[11:28] {nemo} he did, a social greenhouse.
[11:28] {Jenh} i can't...
01[11:29] {@Threei} actually no, I know for the fact ese used to live is Saskatchewan
[11:29] {nemo} jenh you're about 6 years into a conversation here
01[11:29] {@Threei} and that's as far from greenhouse as it gets, with exception of Manitoba
[11:29] {dino} and remember jen, nemo and i are trading 3 hours ahead of you
[11:29] {nemo} hahahaha
01[11:29] {@Threei} lol
[11:30] {Jenh} wait he actually grew up in a greenhouse? i thought this was like when you said i lived in a trailer
[11:30] {nemo} trailer park, double wide
[11:30] {Jenh} sorry if the greenhouse thing was true
[11:30] {RonS} lol
[11:30] {nemo} we all do here
[11:30] {Jenh} ok. but i still don't live in a trailer
[11:30] {nemo} fine
[11:30] {JoebiWan} out WLK +1.00 thanks Dino!!
[11:30] {RonS} flamingo...
01[11:30] {@Threei} it's nemo jen... all he says you need to divide by 3, or multiply by 3, and you have to guess which case is which
[11:30] {dino} don't think too many traders do live in trailers
01[11:31] {@Threei} wtg joebi
[11:31] {dino} joebi, np, gj
[11:31] {nemo} kors treacherous
01[11:31] {@Threei} hold on, let me show you my house...
01[11:31] {@Threei} http://www.realitytrader.com/vad/h.jpg
[11:32] {nemo} I can guess
[11:32] {JoebiWan} lol
01[11:32] {@Threei} with amazing view and very airy
[11:32] {nemo} yep
[11:32] {Jenh} i was just about to say the view is spectacular
[11:32] {nemo} yeah, when he pulls his head out
[11:32] {dino} cmge drop
[11:39] {JoebiWan} do you know where that picture was taken, Vad?
01[11:40] {@Threei} no :)
[11:56] {nemo} indexes look lower
[12:01] {dino} out wlk 66.46, +1.30
[12:01] {Jenh} gj
[12:01] {JoebiWan} Nice
[12:01] {dino} ty
[12:01] {nemo} ahhh well, vwap on tap?
[12:15] {dino} agn spike
[12:21] {nemo} SNDK could be a nice short soon
[12:21] {nemo} a bit spready though
[12:35] {nemo} SSO looks short here
[12:36] {JoebiWan} .90 break?
[12:36] {nemo} yep
[12:44] {nemo} sheesh 1:1
[12:44] {nemo} and that's it
[12:44] {nemo} frickin' bull market
[12:44] {jfjf64} don't quit ya day job
[12:45] {jfjf64} common a joke
[12:45] {jfjf64} lol
01[12:46] {@Threei} hear that sound of rifle racked jf? That's nemo's sense of humor
01[12:47] {@Threei} he smiles into the laser aim
[12:47] {nemo} nah, I'll wait...up close and personal for jf...I want to hear him breathe
01[12:57] {@Threei} Long Setup: CAT .40 break
01[12:57] {@Threei} If holds .30
01[13:04] {@Threei} 1:1
01[13:10] {@Threei} 1:2
[13:16] {nemo} VXX
[13:16] {jfjf64} .40
[13:20] {JoebiWan} +.15 vxx thnks
01[13:20] {@Threei} gj guys
[13:20] {jfjf64} ty nemo
[13:20] {nemo} I would try to hold a piece
[13:21] {Jenh} +.15! ty 3i!
[13:21] {nemo} watch spy, if it can't get above vwap, keep the last piece
01[13:21] {@Threei} jen :)
[13:21] {JoebiWan} ty vad
[13:22] {JoebiWan} cat
01[13:22] {@Threei} yw
[13:23] {dino} gj
[13:29] {jfjf64} fb spike
[13:30] {nemo} dino sndk short
[13:32] {dino} lod break maybe
[13:37] {jfjf64} fb
[13:37] {jfjf64} hod
[13:39] {Jenh} nice call on fb jf
[13:40] {jfjf64} ty
[13:40] {jfjf64} will keep my day job
[13:40] {jfjf64} lol
[13:40] {Jenh} lol
[13:40] {Jenh} pls do
01[13:40] {@Threei} what is this "job" word you use periodically?
[13:41] {jfjf64} this is not j o b
[13:41] {nemo} it's very unpopular around liberals
01[13:41] {@Threei} hmmm... I guess I do have something in common with them after all then
[13:42] {JoebiWan} lo
[13:42] {JoebiWan} l
[13:42] {jfjf64} vol fb
[13:54] {jfjf64} vxx
[13:59] {nemo} might bounce here JF
[13:59] {jfjf64} why
[14:00] {nemo} close to open two day vwap
[14:00] {jfjf64} hmm
[14:00] {nemo} iwm @vwap spy @ resistance
01[14:00] {@Threei} still... looks breakish and rallyish
[14:01] {jfjf64} here comes vol
[14:01] {jfjf64} spy dtop breakdown
[14:04] {jfjf64} in.86
[14:07] {jfjf64} 1;1
[14:09] {nemo} think that was the top for the day
01[14:09] {@Threei} no way
01[14:10] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .75 break
01[14:10] {@Threei} If holds .68
01[14:22] {@Threei} meh
01[14:23] {@Threei} pains me to say but... nemo was right
[14:23] {nemo} well, maybe not, I said high for the day
[14:24] {nemo} this is bounce area
[14:38] {dino} asps drop
[14:40] {dino} asps sm l .49
01[14:40] {@Threei} Long Setup: FB .30 break
01[14:40] {@Threei} If holds .20
[14:41] {nemo} indexes in no man's land
[14:41] {nemo} leaning short though
[14:42] {nemo} 201.10 and swing low here big deal
[14:43] {nemo} oh oh
[14:43] {nemo} roof on spy now 201
[14:51] {nemo} bounce off vwap
01[14:52] {@Threei} Internationally unrecognised 'elections' held on Nov. 2 in the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics (DNR and LNR) have entrenched Russia's annexation of the eastern Donbas region and established a de facto new border with Ukraine.
01[14:52] {@Threei} and that's far from over, expansion is next
[14:55] {jfjf64} just steped out miss anything
01[14:55] {@Threei} FB just triggered
01[14:56] {@Threei} oh, and it's almost "it's barely after halloween and they are putting up Christmas things for sale already" complaints season
[14:57] {dino} xmas this saturday for me on wifes' side
01[14:59] {@Threei} anyone else is scared to even ask what that means?
[14:59] {nemo} it's Dino
[14:59] {Jenh} that sounds nice dino
[14:59] {RonS} nail on the head...frightens me...
01[14:59] {@Threei} jen assumes the best as always :)
[15:01] {dino} mother-in-law heads to florida for winter, so we have xmas early for her
[15:01] {RonS} lol...whew...
06[15:01] * @Threei sighs with relief
[15:01] {dino} re:jen, seems like a good egg
[15:02] {jfjf64} fb holdin nice
[15:02] {Jenh} thanks dino
[15:02] {dino} i seem to have froze asps
[15:03] {Jenh} nice that you do that for your mother-inlaw
[15:03] {nemo} somewhat un natural
[15:03] {dino} all of that side of family gets together. good time
[15:03] {dino} trgp drop
01[15:07] {@Threei} 1:1
01[15:08] {@Threei} https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B1nrQaoIIAA3YTP.png:large
01[15:08] {@Threei} scary chart if you are Putin
01[15:13] {@Threei} 1:2
[15:13] {nemo} elections making it a bit cloudy today
[15:19] {nemo} VXX
[15:19] {Jenh} thx 3i for fb!
[15:19] {jfjf64} bounce
[15:20] {nemo} should be a little buying into the close with elections
[15:20] {JoebiWan} long .70?
[15:21] {nemo} a strong candle here would validate that
[15:21] {dino} strong drink would be better
[15:21] {JoebiWan} sounds good to me
[15:21] {nemo} that's a given
[15:21] {jfjf64} cheers
[15:24] {nemo} nope, looks like running higher into the close
01[15:25] {@Threei} trying for 1:4
[15:25] {Jenh} wow. darn i got out of fb on last dip
01[15:25] {@Threei} 1:3
01[15:25] {@Threei} why? treailing stop wasn't hit
01[15:26] {@Threei} don't be creative... trading is about following the procedure ina disciplined fashion, not about inventing things on the go
[15:27] {nemo} whoa rug pull.
01[15:27] {@Threei} if there is a reason to deviate from standard guideline, I'll alert
01[15:27] {@Threei} otherwise just let things work
01[15:27] {@Threei} as some wise people say, apply principle Wu Wei
01[15:28] {@Threei} which is wise speak for non-intrusion
01[15:28] {@Threei} non-interference
[15:28] {Jenh} sorry. got out when thought a cancel had been a real trade so just took money and ran
01[15:28] {@Threei} cancel?
[15:28] {Jenh} but got out at 50 so very happy
01[15:28] {@Threei} out last peice on a trail btw
[15:29] {JoebiWan} ty vad
[15:29] {Jenh} :( i'm still getting used to program
[15:29] {JoebiWan} good one
01[15:29] {@Threei} yw
[15:29] {Jenh} my trading system said i was holding when i thought i was out so i just left
[15:29] {Jenh} completely
[15:30] {Jenh} if it's any help i did mostly stick to the system until the program scared me
01[15:30] {@Threei} I don't get it but then again... there are so many things I don't get :)
[15:30] {Jenh} :)
[15:31] {dino} scared? remember... money lives on the other side of fear
[15:31] {Jenh} but i live here, in fear, constantly :)
[15:33] {Jenh} still i am calmer than i was so i guess that really is saying something
[15:33] {dino} as long as you keep your stops, whats to fear?
[15:34] {Jenh} very true
[15:34] {Jenh} the stops do keep me calmer
[15:35] {JoebiWan} uhhh, ebola, dino
01[15:35] {@Threei} jen, here is quote from the Techniques of Tape Reading, one of the mantras:
[15:35] {dino} use them and never forget rule #1
01[15:35] {@Threei} I don’t know what the market will do next. I don’t have to know. I know how I will react to anything the market does. I am confident in my ability to react correctly. I have a strategy that works and the discipline to carry it out. I am independent-minded. I don’t trade to please others. I am self-reliant. I question any trade I take, but I don’t question my ability to make the right decisions. I trade effortlessly and automatically. I manage risk and assume losses. I trust myself.
[15:35] {Jenh} long story short: i always wanted to trade and then i did and lost $1500 in 5 min so i guess i have some residual fear
[15:35] {nemo} wow, you got off cheap
[15:36] {dino} lol, with respect jen, losing 1500 is nothing
[15:36] {jfjf64} exactly
[15:36] {Jenh} thanks 3i! that's a good quote
01[15:36] {@Threei} there is much more where it came from :)
[15:36] {Jenh} well to me it was like the world had ended for a sec
[15:36] {jfjf64} don't quitn ya day job
[15:36] {jfjf64} lol
[15:36] {Jenh} thanks guys i really appreciate the encouragement and perspective
[15:37] {Jenh} thnx. will stay in
[15:37] {jfjf64} GO SLOW
01[15:37] {@Threei} what is that day job you speak of with such reverence
[15:37] {dino} trading
[15:37] {jfjf64} lol
[15:37] {JoebiWan} can someone help me with my fear?
[15:37] {nemo} well, we know jf isn't a gigolo
[15:37] {dino} joebi, use the force
[15:37] {nemo} nor a rocket sccientist
01[15:37] {@Threei} ok, one more:
01[15:37] {@Threei} Fear of Trading, Hesitating to Pull the Trigger
01[15:37] {@Threei} Trading is a game of probabilities. I don’t have to be right every time. I just have to follow my rules. I know my system works. Every trade is either a profit or a stop. Any given trade is not of significance. The results over a certain time period are what matter. Trading within my proven system puts the odds on my side. I have to play to allow opportunities to materialize. I know I can trade by my rules. All I do is react to signals— a signal to enter and a signal to exit—that are generated by my system. They take me in and out with no hesitation. I can observe the market and emotionally detach from it. Any stock movement is simply numbers that change following certain patterns. I know how to read those patterns. I am totally focused on what the market is telling me. I can hear it and react to it.
[15:38] {dino} joebi, try using hard stops
[15:38] {JoebiWan} i fear running out of booze
[15:39] {dino} oh, well, try buying in volume
[15:39] {JoebiWan} lol
01[15:39] {@Threei} Sam Club might help?
[15:39] {nemo} oh gawd....I have to go get Guiness for one of my father's recipe's...he only needs one bottle...
[15:40] {jfjf64} watchin vxx
[15:40] {JoebiWan} not in Utah... state run liquor stores
[15:40] {nemo} ahhhh the Mormon mafia
[15:40] {jfjf64} spy break vwap
[15:40] {dino} i like guiness
[15:40] {JoebiWan} correct, nemo
[15:40] {dino} actually, i pretty much like all beer
[15:41] {nemo} Never read the book of Mormon
[15:41] {JoebiWan} i read it when i need to fall asleep
[15:45] {jairoc17} Hi, what is a good broker for someone who is not US resident and lives in aruba?
01[15:45] {@Threei} FB is trying again but we are pretty much at the eod
01[15:45] {@Threei} if you had not enough yet and want to get really grteedy, try .60 break
[15:45] {nemo} wish we were at eo ese
01[15:46] {@Threei} jairoc, http://www.realitytrader.com/laser.html
01[15:46] {@Threei} fill the form, they'll get basck to you with all the information
[15:46] {nemo} hate him already
[15:47] {JoebiWan} why, cause he lives in Aruba? lol
[15:47] {nemo} yep
[15:47] {nemo} I basically hate everybody though
[15:47] {nemo} like bunny
[15:48] {jairoc17} Thanks
[15:48] {nemo} yw
[15:48] {jfjf64} good night all
01[15:49] {@Threei} take care jf
[15:49] {nemo} day job jf?
01[15:49] {@Threei} lol
[15:49] {Jenh} bye jf
[15:49] {dino} cya
[15:49] {jfjf64} you bet
[15:49] {JoebiWan} nice day, TY everyone
01[15:49] {@Threei} yw
[15:49] {dino} gj
[15:49] {Jenh} bye joebi
[15:50] {Jenh} i think i might go too
01[15:50] {@Threei} who took FB, feel free to take scalp
[15:50] {Jenh} thanks everyone for today's trading and therapy session
[15:50] {Jenh} really appreciate it!
01[15:50] {@Threei} thank you all, have a good evening
[15:50] {dino} lol, gn jen
[15:50] {Jenh} gn
01[15:50] {@Threei} see you tomorrow
[15:57] dino out asps .76, +.27
Tuesday, November 4, 2014
November-December 2014 Outlook: The Relay
TradeTheNews.com November-December
2014 Outlook: The Relay
This past Sunday, New York City hosted its annual marathon amid extremely blustery conditions that brought recent market activity to mind. The extraordinary events of late October reintroduced a concept that was lost on the markets for three years - volatility. With everything but the proverbial kitchen sink thrown at sentiment, US equity markets took a nearly ten percent dip, threatening one of the longest bull runs without a correction in history. An existential crisis in Iraq, sudden visions of an Ebola pandemic, and the uncertainties around the end of the Fed's bond buying program combined to alter the trajectory of markets, if only briefly. But to the delight of risk-on market participants, just two days after the Fed announced the end of QE3, Japan launched a new flight of stimulus-tipped arrows, announcing its giant public pension fund would shift to more aggressive investment while the BOJ expanded its asset purchases. The popular image that immediately took hold in the financial community was that of the Fed handing off the quantitative easing baton to the BOJ (with hopes that the ECB will run the next leg in 2015). Though it is dubious that there was any coordination here, a smooth hand off of that baton will be needed to keep the markets from stumbling.
Fed Finishes the First Leg
At its late October meeting the Fed followed through as promised and tapered the last $15 billion of its monthly quantitative easing program. The QE program was effective in buying time for the economy to heal, and its end should probably be taken as a vote of confidence in US economy. In reality the end of QE3 is just the equivalent of scraping the froth off the top of the stein-full of accommodation the central bank is still providing: A four trillion dollar balance sheet and near zero rates abide.
The withdrawal of the two dissenting votes at the October FOMC meeting indicates that the hawks on the committee are satisfied that the end of QE3 is the first step in the long process of unwinding accommodation that will next move to rate tightening some time in 2015. The hawks are rooting for 'rate lift off' in the early part of next year, while Fed Funds Futures show the markets see it in the latter part of 2015.
Though the Fed is now looking out toward normalization on the horizon, it has been increasingly stressing that policy decisions are strictly data dependent. This principle was important enough that it was written into the October monetary policy statement: "if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee's employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated. Conversely, if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range are likely to occur later than currently anticipated." This leaves wiggle room on both sides of the equation, but the data has been trending better since the spring. Indeed, one development that could accelerate the liftoff schedule would be the materialization of an as yet elusive pick-up in wage inflation.
The next leg of the race for the Fed will start at the December 17 FOMC meeting, when it is expected to address the forward guidance statement that says rates will stay low for a "considerable time following the end of its asset purchase program." New language is in order to further emphasize data dependence and to move away from any calendar-based notions about when rate tightening will begin.
Thus the Fed is giving itself a broad timeframe for when rates might start rising and even when it does begin, the central bank has told us that rates will likely keep rates below normal for "some time" (a clause that has been in the FOMC statement since March). Markets may soon start to dread rate lift off, but it is not likely to lift far off of zero. Though the US economy appears to be ahead of most of the developed world in the recovery cycle, the fact that Europe and Japan have just launched new stimulus packages and are hinting at more could keep the Fed chained to low rates for the foreseeable future, even if a token rate hike comes next year.
In the meantime, the specter of a currency war could arise again as the BOJ and ECB policy actions weaken their respective currencies against the dollar. Since the BOJ surprise announcement on October 31, the USD/JPY has weakened from 108 to 114, while the euro is plumbing a 2-year low against the dollar. While the Fed does not officially consider the currency level, the Yellen team may start to fret about US exports if the dollar continues to surge based on the actions of foreign central banks.
The Handoff
Interestingly the latest risk on rally is built on the premise that the end of the Fed's QE3 has signaled other central banks to step in and do their part for global stimulus. Seemingly on cue, Japan stepped in with another 20 trillion yen from the BOJ and confirmed that the GPIF, the world's largest pension fund, would significantly increase allocations to riskier assets, including nearly doubling its holdings of foreign securities. While the GPIF announcement had been anticipated for weeks, the new BOJ stimulus was a genuine surprise. At the same time, press reports made it clear that PM Abe's government is working on another 3 to 4 trillion yen spending package of its own.
All told it is an impressive effort, and the multi-trillion yen government package may continue to be teased in the press for weeks to come, but that said, this may be the last gasp of stimulus from Japan. The unexpected BOJ stimulus increase was the main driver of the October 31 risk-on rally, but it came in a tight 5 to 4 vote, indicating the policy committee is not entirely comfortable with the plan and that there is little chance of another expansion in the future.
The next signpost for Japan will be its preliminary Q3 GDP data on November 16. The BOJ just cut its fiscal year GDP forecast in half to 0.5% growth, as well as trimming its CPI outlook, acknowledging that reaching the inflation target that is the key yardstick of Abenomics will be more difficult to achieve than previously thought. More discouraging growth data could weigh on the impending decision about whether to go ahead with the second stage of a consumption tax increase in April. The IMF has urged the government to move forward with the tax hike to maintain the credibility of its fiscal framework, but the slower growth seen since the first bite of the tax increase this past spring will give Tokyo much to think about. The decision is slated for December and may be counterbalanced by the fruition of the government spending package.
With Japan seemingly extending itself to its fullest, it may not be long before stimulus addicted markets turn their eyes to the ECB looking for more fuel. In short succession over the summer, ECB President Draghi announced two new major stimulative efforts - the Targeted Long Term Repo Operations (TLTRO) and an ABS/covered bond purchase program dubbed by some as "QE light." Even as these programs are still just getting off the ground, the ECB is feeling definite pressure from markets to go further with a full blown QE program, but that may be stymied by legal limitations preventing the central bank from supporting member nations through direct sovereign bond purchases and the objections of the euro zone's most fiscally prudent members, led by Germany. Those who are waiting for this final and most emphatic manifestation of the 'Draghi Put' may be disappointed, as most indications are that there will not be any ECB QE this year (but maybe in 2015). In the meantime the ECB may tinker with the terms of its TLTRO to improve the results at its next operation (December 11), after a disappointing take-up it is inaugural offering.
Will China Rejoin the Relay?
If Japan and Europe have breathed their last stimulus into the global economy, accommodation junkies may still have a white knight swoop in from other quarters. Since the single major stimulus plan it launched in the early days of the global financial crisis, China has been content to run a series of mini-stimulus programs to keep its growth trajectory right on the 7.5% GDP target. But lately, hitting that target has been getting tougher amid slower industrial growth, a cooling real estate sector, and a relentless anti-corruption campaign that has shaken up business-as-usual.
Through the first three quarters of 2014, Chinese GDP growth is running at 7.4%, just below the official target rate, though the Q3 reading was the slowest quarter since early 2009, suggesting the government's targeted stimulus measures have not yielded the expected results. Officially the China Statistics Bureau is forecasting a stronger Q4 to make up the difference and is still of the belief that growth and inflation figures are close enough to targets that the government can get by with merely fine tuning fiscal policy.
Some deteriorating data may militate against that belief. China's slowdown appears to be concentrated in the real estate sector, which accounts for about 10% of GDP or 20% if you add in related industries. In the last few months, home price appreciation has stalled for the first time in two years and the pace of property sales has slowed markedly (year-to-date total value of property sales are down about 9% year over year through September). Coupled with this, fresh multi-month lows recorded in the latest manufacturing and services PMI readings could bring the People's Bank of China back into action. The PBoC has been relatively quiet in the last two years but if the data continues to decay the central bank could examine a rate cut, which would be the first such easing since mid-2012, the last time it used rate policy to address a perceived slowdown in the rate of economic growth.
The Race Is On
The Fed is done adding stimulus, but the US political landscape may deliver some good mojo to the markets (instead of its usual drag), at least in the short term. The November 4 mid-term elections could put both houses of Congress in the hands of Republicans for the first time since 2006. Given low turn-out in non-Presidential election years and a number of close races, pundits are giving the GOP a better than 70% chance of winning the six additional seats they need to take control of the Senate. Initially markets would probably take this outcome as a positive, and the generally pro-business, pro-energy agenda of the Republicans may give a psychological boost to beleaguered energy stocks in particular, which have been suffering of late due to the swoon in oil prices. A Republican Congress could push through legislation on the Keystone Pipeline, legalization of US oil exports, and a tax amnesty for companies to repatriate overseas earnings, putting the onus on President Obama to use his veto. No matter what happens in the election, the US will still have a divided government for at least two more years, and the pundits will immediately move on to analysis of the 2016 Presidential race while Mr. Obama serves out his lame duck years.
Elsewhere in politics, Europe will face another secession vote, this time in Spain. The rhetoric of the Catalan independence movement has been somewhat blunted after the independence movement was scotched in the UK, but the enclave is still forging ahead with a non-binding reference vote on independence on November 9. A yes vote in the Catalonia referendum could revive concerns about balkanization in Europe, an unneeded distraction for a continent already facing difficult political and economic challenges.
A Slippery Path for Oil
In its own way, OPEC may have made a grab for the stimulus baton too. The steady strengthening of the greenback has had an outsized impact on the commodity markets, leaving WTI crude trading around $80/barrel and Brent crude about $5 higher, the lowest levels since the early days of the global economic crisis. The rapid 20% decline in oil prices is a cause for panic in some smaller OPEC producing countries. Venezuela, fearing the price drop in the commodity that accounts for almost all of its exports could lead to a debt default, clamored for an emergency meeting of the cartel to address the issue, but its call fell on deaf ears. Saudi Arabia -- the powerhouse of OPEC and the only member with enough spare capacity to move the needle -- appears to be content with the current situation. At least one Saudi diplomat suggested that this might be his country's means of providing some global stimulus. Analysts say that if the 20% drop in oil prices sticks, it would boost global consumption and amount to more than $1 trillion in annual stimulus, which in turn would create demand for another half million barrels per day of oil.
The Saudis could have other motives as well. Though current the current price of oil is near Saudi Arabia's budgeted break-even point, rival producers have higher production costs per barrel. The Saudis recently offered price discounts to large Asian customers, indicating that they are less concerned about price than about protecting market share from producers like Russia (which in the face of Ukraine-related sanctions has made strides to ship more crude to East Asia), and Iran, the Saudis religious and political rival. Weaker energy prices have also squeezed the North American fracking industry which has boomed with oil above $100/barrel, but now may have to reevaluate the economic viability of some higher cost wells.
The intentions of the Saudis may be made clear at the November 27 regular meeting of OPEC oil ministers in Vienna. An increasing number of energy analysts are forecasting that Saudi Arabia will relent and agree to a 500 thousand to 1.5 million barrel reduction in the OPEC production ceiling, which might send crude prices back toward the $100 mark, if not above it. The decision may be hinted at in OPEC's Annual World Oil Outlook released on November 6.
Iran could turn out to be another wildcard for energy markets. Negotiations over restraining Iran's nuclear program have been grinding on, with the latest extension in talks setting a November 24 deadline for an agreement. The chief diplomats for both sides have maintained a cautious outlook as this date approaches, indicating that a lot of work still needs to be done to achieve a viable deal. A major sticking point appears to be that Tehran wants sanctions lifted immediately while the US and its allies are proposing a gradual withdrawal. If a deal can be struck, more Iranian oil will eventually get to market, but failure to reach terms might lead the major powers to put more pressure on Iran's oil customers in Asia to reduce their consumption. In addition, Israel, which is already on a short fuse after its most serious confrontation with Hamas in years this summer, might see failed nuclear talks as the signal for it to take military action against nuclear sites in Iran.
Among other commodities, precious metals are also at multiyear lows. Even amidst the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Ukraine, and Hong Kong this year gold has not gained an ounce of traction. The chart of the yellow metal is indicating a technical breakdown may be imminent, but things might be looking up for the gold bugs as Switzerland prepares for a referendum on the issue of its gold reserves. If the referendum passes on November 30, the Swiss National Bank will be required to stop selling gold and to increase its gold reserves to 20% of its assets (from the current 7.8%). This would force the central bank to buy over 1,500 tons of gold, or sell close to half of its fiat money reserves, or some combination of the two to boost the percentage weight of gold on its balance sheet. Such drastic changes might imperil the 1.20 ceiling the SNB has imposed on the franc, which nearly reached parity with the euro in mid-2011 just before the currency cap was put in place. The latest polling shows the yes vote has a slight edge.
Far From the Last Mile
QE is not over, it is just evolving. Japan has grabbed the baton, and the BOJ bonanza reignited the risk-on rally. Many are hoping that the ECB will take up QE next, but don't count on it in the near term. However, more stimulus could come from other quarters, ranging from the US Senate to the Saudi oil princes, or China may even pick up the baton again. In all it may be enough to propel a melt up of risk assets into the New Year (though the jury is still l out on whether QE has been as beneficial for Main Street as it has been for the markets).
So what could go wrong? The doomsayers assert that we are bound for a situation where QE becomes a permanent fixture or that all this stimulus is really just 'pushing on a string' and will eventually lead to a calamity that will eclipse the worst days of 2008. The strong dollar trend looks ready to continue, but if it goes too far too fast, it could erode the gains made in the US economic recovery, and further compress oil prices. More importantly, if the ECB and BOJ extraordinary measures don't turn things around soon, it could set up a global deflationary spiral.
Even if the outcomes are not that extreme, the recent bout of market volatility showed things can move quickly, illustrated by disturbingly rapid whoosh lower seen in government bonds and oil. Markets may get unsettled again by a resurgence of the issues that caused the October gyrations. As 2015 creeps closer, thoughts will turn to Fed tightening, especially if improving employment data is met with wage inflation. The geopolitical upsets in Ukraine and Iraq are not fully resolved either, not to mention that the impending flu season will send every hypochondriac in the western world to the hospital screaming Ebola.
In this holiday season, here's to your health, and to hoping the central banks execute a smooth handoff of that baton for at least few more laps.
CALENDAR
NOVEMBER
2: China Non-Manufacturing PMI; China HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI
3: US ISM Manufacturing PMI
4: UK Construction PMI; US Trade Balance; US Factory Orders; US Election Day
5: Various EU Services PMIs; US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; BOJ Minutes
6: German Factory Orders; BOE policy statement; ECB policy statement and press conf; OPEC Annual World Oil Outlook
7: US Payrolls and Unemployment
8: China Trade Balance
9: China CPI and PPI
10: China New Loans; UK Manufacturing Production
11: UK Trade Balance
12: EU Industrial Production; BOE Inflation Report
13: China Industrial Production; UK Claimant Count and Unemployment
14: UK CPI and PPI; Euro Zone flash Q3 GDP; US Retail Sales, Prelim University of Michigan Confidence
16: Japan Prelim Q3 GDP
17: US Industrial Production
18: UK Retail Sales; German ZEW Economic Sentiment; US PPI; BOJ Policy Statement (tentative date)
19: BOE Minutes; US Housing Starts & Building Permits; Oct FOMC Minutes; Japan Trade Balance
20: US CPI; US Philly Fed Index; US Existing Home Sales
21:
24: BOJ Minutes; China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI; Deadline for Iran Nuclear Deal with Major Powers
25: Various EU Flash Manufacturing PMIs; UK Q3 GDP (2nd reading); German Ifo Business Climate; US Prelim Q3 GDP (2nd reading); US Consumer Confidence
26: German Prelim CPI; US Durable Goods; US New Home Sales
27: German Unemployment; Japan Retail Sales; Tokyo CPI; OPEC Regular Meeting; US CLOSED FOR THANKSGIVING
28: German Retail Sales; Euro Zone Flash CPI Estimate; Euro Zone Unemployment; Chicago PMI
30: China Manufacturing PMI; China HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI; Swiss referendum on gold reserves and immigration issues
DECEMBER:
1: US ISM Manufacturing PMI
2: UK Construction PMI; China Non-Manufacturing PMI
3: UK Construction PMI; Euro Zone Retail Sales; US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
4: BOE policy statement; ECB policy statement and press conf
5: German Factory Orders; US Payrolls and Unemployment; US Factory Orders
8: China Trade Balance (tentative); Japan Final Q3 GDP
9: UK Trade Balance; China CPI and PPI
10: China New Loans; UK Manufacturing Production
11: ECB Targeted LTRO announcement; US Retail Sales
12: China Industrial Production; Euro Zone Industrial Production; Prelim University of Michigan Confidence
15: UK CPI and PPI; US Industrial Production
16: UK Claimant Count and Unemployment; German ZEW Economic Sentiment; BOE Financial Stability Report; US Housing Starts & Building Permits; Japan Trade Balance
17: BOE Minutes; Euro Zone Final CPI; US CPI; FOMC Policy Statement and Press Conference
18: UK Retail Sales; US Philly Fed Index; BOJ Policy Statement (tentative)
19:
22: German Unemployment; US Existing Home Sales; China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
23: German Retail Sales; Various EU Flash Manufacturing PMIs; German Ifo Business Climate; US Final Q3 GDP; US Durable Goods Orders; US New Home Sales
24: BOJ Minutes
25: Tokyo CPI; CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY
26:
29: German Prelim CPI; Japan Retail Sales
30: US Chicago PMI; US Consumer Confidence
31: China Manufacturing PMI
TradeTheNews.com
This past Sunday, New York City hosted its annual marathon amid extremely blustery conditions that brought recent market activity to mind. The extraordinary events of late October reintroduced a concept that was lost on the markets for three years - volatility. With everything but the proverbial kitchen sink thrown at sentiment, US equity markets took a nearly ten percent dip, threatening one of the longest bull runs without a correction in history. An existential crisis in Iraq, sudden visions of an Ebola pandemic, and the uncertainties around the end of the Fed's bond buying program combined to alter the trajectory of markets, if only briefly. But to the delight of risk-on market participants, just two days after the Fed announced the end of QE3, Japan launched a new flight of stimulus-tipped arrows, announcing its giant public pension fund would shift to more aggressive investment while the BOJ expanded its asset purchases. The popular image that immediately took hold in the financial community was that of the Fed handing off the quantitative easing baton to the BOJ (with hopes that the ECB will run the next leg in 2015). Though it is dubious that there was any coordination here, a smooth hand off of that baton will be needed to keep the markets from stumbling.
Fed Finishes the First Leg
At its late October meeting the Fed followed through as promised and tapered the last $15 billion of its monthly quantitative easing program. The QE program was effective in buying time for the economy to heal, and its end should probably be taken as a vote of confidence in US economy. In reality the end of QE3 is just the equivalent of scraping the froth off the top of the stein-full of accommodation the central bank is still providing: A four trillion dollar balance sheet and near zero rates abide.
The withdrawal of the two dissenting votes at the October FOMC meeting indicates that the hawks on the committee are satisfied that the end of QE3 is the first step in the long process of unwinding accommodation that will next move to rate tightening some time in 2015. The hawks are rooting for 'rate lift off' in the early part of next year, while Fed Funds Futures show the markets see it in the latter part of 2015.
Though the Fed is now looking out toward normalization on the horizon, it has been increasingly stressing that policy decisions are strictly data dependent. This principle was important enough that it was written into the October monetary policy statement: "if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee's employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated. Conversely, if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range are likely to occur later than currently anticipated." This leaves wiggle room on both sides of the equation, but the data has been trending better since the spring. Indeed, one development that could accelerate the liftoff schedule would be the materialization of an as yet elusive pick-up in wage inflation.
The next leg of the race for the Fed will start at the December 17 FOMC meeting, when it is expected to address the forward guidance statement that says rates will stay low for a "considerable time following the end of its asset purchase program." New language is in order to further emphasize data dependence and to move away from any calendar-based notions about when rate tightening will begin.
Thus the Fed is giving itself a broad timeframe for when rates might start rising and even when it does begin, the central bank has told us that rates will likely keep rates below normal for "some time" (a clause that has been in the FOMC statement since March). Markets may soon start to dread rate lift off, but it is not likely to lift far off of zero. Though the US economy appears to be ahead of most of the developed world in the recovery cycle, the fact that Europe and Japan have just launched new stimulus packages and are hinting at more could keep the Fed chained to low rates for the foreseeable future, even if a token rate hike comes next year.
In the meantime, the specter of a currency war could arise again as the BOJ and ECB policy actions weaken their respective currencies against the dollar. Since the BOJ surprise announcement on October 31, the USD/JPY has weakened from 108 to 114, while the euro is plumbing a 2-year low against the dollar. While the Fed does not officially consider the currency level, the Yellen team may start to fret about US exports if the dollar continues to surge based on the actions of foreign central banks.
The Handoff
Interestingly the latest risk on rally is built on the premise that the end of the Fed's QE3 has signaled other central banks to step in and do their part for global stimulus. Seemingly on cue, Japan stepped in with another 20 trillion yen from the BOJ and confirmed that the GPIF, the world's largest pension fund, would significantly increase allocations to riskier assets, including nearly doubling its holdings of foreign securities. While the GPIF announcement had been anticipated for weeks, the new BOJ stimulus was a genuine surprise. At the same time, press reports made it clear that PM Abe's government is working on another 3 to 4 trillion yen spending package of its own.
All told it is an impressive effort, and the multi-trillion yen government package may continue to be teased in the press for weeks to come, but that said, this may be the last gasp of stimulus from Japan. The unexpected BOJ stimulus increase was the main driver of the October 31 risk-on rally, but it came in a tight 5 to 4 vote, indicating the policy committee is not entirely comfortable with the plan and that there is little chance of another expansion in the future.
The next signpost for Japan will be its preliminary Q3 GDP data on November 16. The BOJ just cut its fiscal year GDP forecast in half to 0.5% growth, as well as trimming its CPI outlook, acknowledging that reaching the inflation target that is the key yardstick of Abenomics will be more difficult to achieve than previously thought. More discouraging growth data could weigh on the impending decision about whether to go ahead with the second stage of a consumption tax increase in April. The IMF has urged the government to move forward with the tax hike to maintain the credibility of its fiscal framework, but the slower growth seen since the first bite of the tax increase this past spring will give Tokyo much to think about. The decision is slated for December and may be counterbalanced by the fruition of the government spending package.
With Japan seemingly extending itself to its fullest, it may not be long before stimulus addicted markets turn their eyes to the ECB looking for more fuel. In short succession over the summer, ECB President Draghi announced two new major stimulative efforts - the Targeted Long Term Repo Operations (TLTRO) and an ABS/covered bond purchase program dubbed by some as "QE light." Even as these programs are still just getting off the ground, the ECB is feeling definite pressure from markets to go further with a full blown QE program, but that may be stymied by legal limitations preventing the central bank from supporting member nations through direct sovereign bond purchases and the objections of the euro zone's most fiscally prudent members, led by Germany. Those who are waiting for this final and most emphatic manifestation of the 'Draghi Put' may be disappointed, as most indications are that there will not be any ECB QE this year (but maybe in 2015). In the meantime the ECB may tinker with the terms of its TLTRO to improve the results at its next operation (December 11), after a disappointing take-up it is inaugural offering.
Will China Rejoin the Relay?
If Japan and Europe have breathed their last stimulus into the global economy, accommodation junkies may still have a white knight swoop in from other quarters. Since the single major stimulus plan it launched in the early days of the global financial crisis, China has been content to run a series of mini-stimulus programs to keep its growth trajectory right on the 7.5% GDP target. But lately, hitting that target has been getting tougher amid slower industrial growth, a cooling real estate sector, and a relentless anti-corruption campaign that has shaken up business-as-usual.
Through the first three quarters of 2014, Chinese GDP growth is running at 7.4%, just below the official target rate, though the Q3 reading was the slowest quarter since early 2009, suggesting the government's targeted stimulus measures have not yielded the expected results. Officially the China Statistics Bureau is forecasting a stronger Q4 to make up the difference and is still of the belief that growth and inflation figures are close enough to targets that the government can get by with merely fine tuning fiscal policy.
Some deteriorating data may militate against that belief. China's slowdown appears to be concentrated in the real estate sector, which accounts for about 10% of GDP or 20% if you add in related industries. In the last few months, home price appreciation has stalled for the first time in two years and the pace of property sales has slowed markedly (year-to-date total value of property sales are down about 9% year over year through September). Coupled with this, fresh multi-month lows recorded in the latest manufacturing and services PMI readings could bring the People's Bank of China back into action. The PBoC has been relatively quiet in the last two years but if the data continues to decay the central bank could examine a rate cut, which would be the first such easing since mid-2012, the last time it used rate policy to address a perceived slowdown in the rate of economic growth.
The Race Is On
The Fed is done adding stimulus, but the US political landscape may deliver some good mojo to the markets (instead of its usual drag), at least in the short term. The November 4 mid-term elections could put both houses of Congress in the hands of Republicans for the first time since 2006. Given low turn-out in non-Presidential election years and a number of close races, pundits are giving the GOP a better than 70% chance of winning the six additional seats they need to take control of the Senate. Initially markets would probably take this outcome as a positive, and the generally pro-business, pro-energy agenda of the Republicans may give a psychological boost to beleaguered energy stocks in particular, which have been suffering of late due to the swoon in oil prices. A Republican Congress could push through legislation on the Keystone Pipeline, legalization of US oil exports, and a tax amnesty for companies to repatriate overseas earnings, putting the onus on President Obama to use his veto. No matter what happens in the election, the US will still have a divided government for at least two more years, and the pundits will immediately move on to analysis of the 2016 Presidential race while Mr. Obama serves out his lame duck years.
Elsewhere in politics, Europe will face another secession vote, this time in Spain. The rhetoric of the Catalan independence movement has been somewhat blunted after the independence movement was scotched in the UK, but the enclave is still forging ahead with a non-binding reference vote on independence on November 9. A yes vote in the Catalonia referendum could revive concerns about balkanization in Europe, an unneeded distraction for a continent already facing difficult political and economic challenges.
A Slippery Path for Oil
In its own way, OPEC may have made a grab for the stimulus baton too. The steady strengthening of the greenback has had an outsized impact on the commodity markets, leaving WTI crude trading around $80/barrel and Brent crude about $5 higher, the lowest levels since the early days of the global economic crisis. The rapid 20% decline in oil prices is a cause for panic in some smaller OPEC producing countries. Venezuela, fearing the price drop in the commodity that accounts for almost all of its exports could lead to a debt default, clamored for an emergency meeting of the cartel to address the issue, but its call fell on deaf ears. Saudi Arabia -- the powerhouse of OPEC and the only member with enough spare capacity to move the needle -- appears to be content with the current situation. At least one Saudi diplomat suggested that this might be his country's means of providing some global stimulus. Analysts say that if the 20% drop in oil prices sticks, it would boost global consumption and amount to more than $1 trillion in annual stimulus, which in turn would create demand for another half million barrels per day of oil.
The Saudis could have other motives as well. Though current the current price of oil is near Saudi Arabia's budgeted break-even point, rival producers have higher production costs per barrel. The Saudis recently offered price discounts to large Asian customers, indicating that they are less concerned about price than about protecting market share from producers like Russia (which in the face of Ukraine-related sanctions has made strides to ship more crude to East Asia), and Iran, the Saudis religious and political rival. Weaker energy prices have also squeezed the North American fracking industry which has boomed with oil above $100/barrel, but now may have to reevaluate the economic viability of some higher cost wells.
The intentions of the Saudis may be made clear at the November 27 regular meeting of OPEC oil ministers in Vienna. An increasing number of energy analysts are forecasting that Saudi Arabia will relent and agree to a 500 thousand to 1.5 million barrel reduction in the OPEC production ceiling, which might send crude prices back toward the $100 mark, if not above it. The decision may be hinted at in OPEC's Annual World Oil Outlook released on November 6.
Iran could turn out to be another wildcard for energy markets. Negotiations over restraining Iran's nuclear program have been grinding on, with the latest extension in talks setting a November 24 deadline for an agreement. The chief diplomats for both sides have maintained a cautious outlook as this date approaches, indicating that a lot of work still needs to be done to achieve a viable deal. A major sticking point appears to be that Tehran wants sanctions lifted immediately while the US and its allies are proposing a gradual withdrawal. If a deal can be struck, more Iranian oil will eventually get to market, but failure to reach terms might lead the major powers to put more pressure on Iran's oil customers in Asia to reduce their consumption. In addition, Israel, which is already on a short fuse after its most serious confrontation with Hamas in years this summer, might see failed nuclear talks as the signal for it to take military action against nuclear sites in Iran.
Among other commodities, precious metals are also at multiyear lows. Even amidst the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Ukraine, and Hong Kong this year gold has not gained an ounce of traction. The chart of the yellow metal is indicating a technical breakdown may be imminent, but things might be looking up for the gold bugs as Switzerland prepares for a referendum on the issue of its gold reserves. If the referendum passes on November 30, the Swiss National Bank will be required to stop selling gold and to increase its gold reserves to 20% of its assets (from the current 7.8%). This would force the central bank to buy over 1,500 tons of gold, or sell close to half of its fiat money reserves, or some combination of the two to boost the percentage weight of gold on its balance sheet. Such drastic changes might imperil the 1.20 ceiling the SNB has imposed on the franc, which nearly reached parity with the euro in mid-2011 just before the currency cap was put in place. The latest polling shows the yes vote has a slight edge.
Far From the Last Mile
QE is not over, it is just evolving. Japan has grabbed the baton, and the BOJ bonanza reignited the risk-on rally. Many are hoping that the ECB will take up QE next, but don't count on it in the near term. However, more stimulus could come from other quarters, ranging from the US Senate to the Saudi oil princes, or China may even pick up the baton again. In all it may be enough to propel a melt up of risk assets into the New Year (though the jury is still l out on whether QE has been as beneficial for Main Street as it has been for the markets).
So what could go wrong? The doomsayers assert that we are bound for a situation where QE becomes a permanent fixture or that all this stimulus is really just 'pushing on a string' and will eventually lead to a calamity that will eclipse the worst days of 2008. The strong dollar trend looks ready to continue, but if it goes too far too fast, it could erode the gains made in the US economic recovery, and further compress oil prices. More importantly, if the ECB and BOJ extraordinary measures don't turn things around soon, it could set up a global deflationary spiral.
Even if the outcomes are not that extreme, the recent bout of market volatility showed things can move quickly, illustrated by disturbingly rapid whoosh lower seen in government bonds and oil. Markets may get unsettled again by a resurgence of the issues that caused the October gyrations. As 2015 creeps closer, thoughts will turn to Fed tightening, especially if improving employment data is met with wage inflation. The geopolitical upsets in Ukraine and Iraq are not fully resolved either, not to mention that the impending flu season will send every hypochondriac in the western world to the hospital screaming Ebola.
In this holiday season, here's to your health, and to hoping the central banks execute a smooth handoff of that baton for at least few more laps.
CALENDAR
NOVEMBER
2: China Non-Manufacturing PMI; China HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI
3: US ISM Manufacturing PMI
4: UK Construction PMI; US Trade Balance; US Factory Orders; US Election Day
5: Various EU Services PMIs; US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; BOJ Minutes
6: German Factory Orders; BOE policy statement; ECB policy statement and press conf; OPEC Annual World Oil Outlook
7: US Payrolls and Unemployment
8: China Trade Balance
9: China CPI and PPI
10: China New Loans; UK Manufacturing Production
11: UK Trade Balance
12: EU Industrial Production; BOE Inflation Report
13: China Industrial Production; UK Claimant Count and Unemployment
14: UK CPI and PPI; Euro Zone flash Q3 GDP; US Retail Sales, Prelim University of Michigan Confidence
16: Japan Prelim Q3 GDP
17: US Industrial Production
18: UK Retail Sales; German ZEW Economic Sentiment; US PPI; BOJ Policy Statement (tentative date)
19: BOE Minutes; US Housing Starts & Building Permits; Oct FOMC Minutes; Japan Trade Balance
20: US CPI; US Philly Fed Index; US Existing Home Sales
21:
24: BOJ Minutes; China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI; Deadline for Iran Nuclear Deal with Major Powers
25: Various EU Flash Manufacturing PMIs; UK Q3 GDP (2nd reading); German Ifo Business Climate; US Prelim Q3 GDP (2nd reading); US Consumer Confidence
26: German Prelim CPI; US Durable Goods; US New Home Sales
27: German Unemployment; Japan Retail Sales; Tokyo CPI; OPEC Regular Meeting; US CLOSED FOR THANKSGIVING
28: German Retail Sales; Euro Zone Flash CPI Estimate; Euro Zone Unemployment; Chicago PMI
30: China Manufacturing PMI; China HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI; Swiss referendum on gold reserves and immigration issues
DECEMBER:
1: US ISM Manufacturing PMI
2: UK Construction PMI; China Non-Manufacturing PMI
3: UK Construction PMI; Euro Zone Retail Sales; US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
4: BOE policy statement; ECB policy statement and press conf
5: German Factory Orders; US Payrolls and Unemployment; US Factory Orders
8: China Trade Balance (tentative); Japan Final Q3 GDP
9: UK Trade Balance; China CPI and PPI
10: China New Loans; UK Manufacturing Production
11: ECB Targeted LTRO announcement; US Retail Sales
12: China Industrial Production; Euro Zone Industrial Production; Prelim University of Michigan Confidence
15: UK CPI and PPI; US Industrial Production
16: UK Claimant Count and Unemployment; German ZEW Economic Sentiment; BOE Financial Stability Report; US Housing Starts & Building Permits; Japan Trade Balance
17: BOE Minutes; Euro Zone Final CPI; US CPI; FOMC Policy Statement and Press Conference
18: UK Retail Sales; US Philly Fed Index; BOJ Policy Statement (tentative)
19:
22: German Unemployment; US Existing Home Sales; China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
23: German Retail Sales; Various EU Flash Manufacturing PMIs; German Ifo Business Climate; US Final Q3 GDP; US Durable Goods Orders; US New Home Sales
24: BOJ Minutes
25: Tokyo CPI; CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY
26:
29: German Prelim CPI; Japan Retail Sales
30: US Chicago PMI; US Consumer Confidence
31: China Manufacturing PMI
TradeTheNews.com
Monday, November 3, 2014
Nov 03 2014
Started with 2 juicy wins, then took a few stops (a few too many I'd say), then finished with a few nice wins again. Still ended slightly negative - that "a few too many" part.
Session Time: Mon Nov 03 00:00:01 2014
[08:56] {dino} gm 3i
01[08:56] {@Threei} morning dino
[09:12] {Jenh} gm
01[09:12] {@Threei} jen :)
[09:13] {RonS} hi everyone
01[09:15] {@Threei} ron :)
[09:19] {RonS} 40 and raining here...wasted weekend painting hail damage...
01[09:20] {@Threei} well, it's +40... some parts are about to get hit with -40
[09:20] {Jenh} ouch. sorry to hear to that
[09:20] {RonS} $56 for a gallon of paint, i hate the epa...
[09:21] {RonS} Mercedes is quietly using Tesla technology in its first mainstream plug-in: http://bloom.bg/1wYgedT
[09:26] {jfjf64} mornin
01[09:26] {@Threei} jf :)
01[09:26] {@Threei} to air another grievance, I passionately hate time change
[09:26] {RonS} me too
01[09:27] {@Threei} as much as it pains me to say so, but here is one thing Putin's done well, doing away with this nonsense
[09:28] {ese} gm
01[09:28] {@Threei} ese :)
01[09:32] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB .30 break
01[09:32] {@Threei} If holds .40
01[09:32] {@Threei} 1:1
01[09:34] {@Threei} Upside:
01[09:34] {@Threei} -SAPE +42% (being acquired by Publicis Groupe)
01[09:34] {@Threei} -GERN +30% (clinical hold on Imetelsat removed by FDA)
01[09:34] {@Threei} -COV +27% (Stellarex assets being acquired by Spectranetics)
01[09:34] {@Threei} -AMRE +6% (being acquired by EDENS)
01[09:34] {@Threei} -SPCB +5.2% (earnings)
01[09:34] {@Threei} Downside:
01[09:34] {@Threei} -ARCP -16% (momentum from Friday's criminal probe & RCAP terminates agreement to acquire Cole Capital)
01[09:34] {@Threei} -RCAP -2% (terminates agreement to acquire Cole Capital)
01[09:36] {@Threei} Long Setup: VXX .35 break
01[09:36] {@Threei} If holds .25
01[09:36] {@Threei} .1
01[09:36] {@Threei} 1:1
01[09:37] {@Threei} 1:2
01[09:38] {@Threei} 1:2 FB
01[09:43] {@Threei} if loses 75, will try for 1:4
01[09:44] {@Threei} *(US) OCT FINAL MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 55.9 V 56.2E
01[09:47] {@Threei} 1:3
[09:48] {dino} mbly sm l .01 hooker
01[09:50] {@Threei} thought VXX had 1:3 in it
01[09:53] {@Threei} 1:4 FB close enough, out
[09:53] {jfjf64} good job
[09:53] {dino} out mbly .40, +.39
[09:54] {jfjf64} dal
[09:54] {jfjf64} dtop
[09:54] {jfjf64} ?
01[09:55] {@Threei} let it form better chart
01[09:55] {@Threei} can turn into C&H easy
[09:55] {jfjf64} k
[09:55] {jfjf64} will keep i
01[09:56] {@Threei} cross over .50, holding under .55 and loss of .45 would be nice setup
01[09:56] {@Threei} Short Setup: DAL .45
01[09:56] {@Threei} If holds .55
01[09:57] {@Threei} Invalidated
[09:57] {jfjf64} looked good for sec
01[10:00] {@Threei} *(US) OCT ISM MANUFACTURING: 59.0 V 56.2E; PRICES PAID: 53.5 V 58.0E
01[10:00] {@Threei} *(US) SEPT CONSTRUCTION SPENDING M/M: -0.4 % V 0.7%E
[10:04] {dino} rcpt smr s .01 wide
01[10:06] {@Threei} Long Setup: CAT .90 break
01[10:07] {@Threei} Invalidated
[10:14] {nemo} cat
01[10:15] {@Threei} Long Setup: FB 75 break
01[10:15] {@Threei} If holds .90
01[10:22] {@Threei} struggle
01[10:27] {@Threei} no go
[10:28] {dino} out crus calls last week, flat
[10:29] {jfjf64} logix can draw tred lines new upgrade
[10:31] {jfjf64} dal .50 break
[10:31] {jfjf64} watchin
01[10:35] {@Threei} Long Setup: CAT .65 break
01[10:35] {@Threei} If holds .55
[10:36] {JoebiWan} hey gang
01[10:36] {@Threei} hi joebi
01[10:37] {@Threei} welcome back
[10:37] {JoebiWan} ty
01[10:37] {@Threei} been a while since you trialed
[10:38] {JoebiWan} it has
[10:40] {dino} ingn spike
[10:42] {Jenh} dino, the spreads on the stocks you trade are insane. especially rcpt. I haven't seen spreads that wide outside of a text book
[10:42] {Jenh} you're very brave
01[10:43] {@Threei} this is his trademark
[10:44] {Jenh} ic
01[10:44] {@Threei} CAT vakid
01[10:44] {@Threei} valid too
01[10:44] {@Threei} they require different approach Jen
01[10:45] {@Threei} not for newer traders
[10:46] {Jenh} or maybe never for me :) i can't stomach those kinds of volume numbers
[10:46] {dino} jen, do not trade what i trade. ron is about the only one here who sees what i see
01[10:47] {@Threei} I see it too dino but every time I do I wish I could unsee it {G}
[10:47] {Jenh} don't worry. never thought to trade what you trade. :)
[10:47] {Jenh} watching you trade is nerve wracking enough
01[10:48] {@Threei} pampers trade
[10:48] {jfjf64} lol
[10:48] {Jenh} lol
[10:48] {dino} control spread thru size
01[10:49] {@Threei} Invalidated CAT
01[10:49] {@Threei} and through entry/wxits imitating marketmaking
[10:49] {dino} yes
01[10:52] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB .80 break
01[10:52] {@Threei} If holds .90
01[10:55] {@Threei} no go
[11:07] {dino} added small amt baba calls w/time into earnings
[11:07] {dino} rcpt stop ave -.38
01[11:09] {@Threei} frozen market
[11:09] {nemo} damn HFTs
[11:09] {nemo} hey dino, watch Pats yesterday?
01[11:11] {@Threei} Long Setup: TWTR .20 break
01[11:11] {@Threei} If holds .10
01[11:11] {@Threei} Invalidated
[11:12] {dino} no, had enough after watching penn state blow it saturday and the jets stink it up on sunday
01[11:12] {@Threei} change to 41 break
01[11:12] {@Threei} If holds .90
[11:12] {RonS} watched Steelers/Ravens...that was the game...what a slugfest
[11:13] {dino} pcrx smr l .15
01[11:14] {@Threei} hmmm
01[11:14] {@Threei} patterns disappeared
01[11:26] {@Threei} Long Setup: VXX .65 break
01[11:32] {@Threei} let's go VXX
[11:32] {jfjf64} lets doit
01[11:32] {@Threei} held nicely on pullback, now break .70 and fly
01[11:43] {@Threei} nope
01[11:43] {@Threei} OK, I officially dislike today
01[11:44] {@Threei} opening was good, after that movements became random
[11:47] {dino} ditto
[11:47] {Jenh} i think we should make a formal complaint
01[11:48] {@Threei} I agree but to whom?
[11:48] {jfjf64} nemo
[11:49] {Jenh} nemo and nyse
[11:49] {Jenh} cover all bases
01[11:49] {@Threei} {Nemo} hmm, new role... usually I am a subject of commplaints
01[11:50] {@Threei} Long Setup: FB .70 break
[11:50] {jfjf64} he has been very quiet today
01[11:50] {@Threei} If holds .60
01[11:50] {@Threei} he is one hour behind
01[11:50] {@Threei} cosmo can't install mirc on his spare laptop... Raven fell of his perch... I am telling you, this time change is horrible
[11:53] {dino} lol
[11:57] {RonS} true story...very few trick & treaters here and elsewhere in neighborhood...neighbor lady said "could not believe how many I had...record number...guy standing there "what were you giving out?" ...full sized candy bars... guys says "the kids probably have an app for that"...
[11:58] {Jenh} lol
01[11:59] {@Threei} lol
01[11:59] {@Threei} sheesh
01[12:00] {@Threei} come on
[12:07] {jfjf64} twtr
[12:07] {jfjf64} lk lower
[12:09] {jfjf64} lol
01[12:27] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR .50 break
01[12:28] {@Threei} If holds .60
[12:28] {dino} out pcrx .85, +.70
01[12:31] {@Threei} wtg
[12:32] {dino} ty
[12:32] {RonS} out pcrx 91.15 from 90.14 +1.01 thanks dino
[12:34] {jfjf64} wtg boys
[12:35] {Jenh} congratulations guys!
[12:39] {Jenh} just looked at pcrx. over .40 spread at one point. better than $1 earlier but still....
[12:39] {Jenh} too hard to watch
[12:39] {Jenh} you guys really know what you're doing
01[12:40] {@Threei} Jen, they have this secret... don't tell anyone but it's chicken entrails hung on dartboard
[12:40] {Jenh} I KNEW IT!
01[12:40] {@Threei} and they use a bat's collarbone as a dart
[12:41] {Jenh} of course. it all makes sense now
01[12:41] {@Threei} almost... there is one more little thing not many know
[12:41] {Jenh} bat collarbone is the best technical there is
01[12:42] {@Threei} a bat must be caught at the full moon, and the intersection of Main Str and 2st Ave
01[12:42] {@Threei} 1st
01[12:42] {@Threei} and wrapped in tea leaves for three day
01[12:42] {@Threei} only after that collarbone is extracted
[12:42] {dino} and if you can catch an albino bat, you have to go all in
[12:43] {Jenh} i guess i have to get my net out and start brewing some tea
[12:45] {nemo} Politics and Humor @PoliticalLaughs
[12:45] {nemo} Relying on the government to protect your privacy is like asking a peeping tom to install your window blinds. - John Perry Barlow
01[12:46] {@Threei} sounds about right
01[12:46] {@Threei} and as relevant to trading as bat hunting
[12:47] {Jenh} lol
01[12:48] {@Threei} break down already TWTR
[12:48] {jfjf64} step aside.50
01[12:51] {@Threei} this time
[12:52] {jfjf64} spy must die
01[12:53] {@Threei} FB looks breakdownish too
[12:53] {jfjf64} .10
01[12:55] {@Threei} no news
01[12:55] {@Threei} spike out of nowhere
01[12:56] {@Threei} Invalidated
01[12:58] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB .10 break
01[12:58] {@Threei} If holds .20
01[13:00] {@Threei} 1:1
01[13:03] {@Threei} 1:2
01[13:04] {@Threei} 1:3
01[13:04] {@Threei} out
01[13:04] {@Threei} finally decent one, after two morning wins
01[13:05] {@Threei} Saudi Aramco raises December official selling price (OSP) for Arab light crude to Asia by 95 cents; raises prices to Europe, and lowers US prices - press
[13:10] {jfjf64} twtr
[13:20] {jfjf64} im gonna skip
[13:20] {jfjf64} see all tommorrow
[13:20] {Jenh} bye jf
[13:20] {Jenh} have a great day
01[13:22] {@Threei} take care jf
[13:28] {nemo} IWM
[13:47] {dino} added fxy puts
01[13:55] {@Threei} Long Setup: VXX .25 break
01[13:55] {@Threei} If holds .15
[13:59] {dino} ncmi drop
01[14:05] {@Threei} 1:1
[14:06] {dino} ncmi smr l .84
[14:09] {RonS} feds suing ncmi to stop some sort of merger...ohhh need to protect everyone from the evil cinema advertising monopoly ad empire
[14:10] {dino} hard stop at .66, lets see if it can run
[14:17] {dino} to .54
[14:18] {dino} to .74
[14:19] {dino} to .77
[14:19] {dino} slip, out .74, +.90 mcmi
[14:19] {dino} ncmi
[14:20] {dino} ron, you get that?
[14:20] {Jenh} gj dino
[14:20] {RonS} nah, distracted w/ grandkids raising hell... gj
[14:21] {dino} ty
[14:21] {nemo} velcro and superglue
[14:21] {dino} now jen, admit it, that one was a lot of fun
[14:21] {Jenh} didn't even look yet
[14:22] {dino} pull up the daily chart
[14:23] {JoebiWan} how do you gauge when to enter a trade like that, Dino?
[14:23] {Jenh} i feel sick. and did it not trade at all from 11:30-2?
[14:24] {Jenh} that's just scary to me
[14:24] {dino} higher lows/higher highs
[14:24] {Jenh} great job tho
[14:24] {Jenh} stomach of steel
[14:24] {JoebiWan} 1min chart?
[14:24] {dino} yes
[14:25] {Jenh} did you use regular bat or albino?
[14:25] {dino} baseball bat
[14:25] {Jenh} ah. wise move
[14:25] {RonS} half-breed?
01[14:27] {@Threei} 1:2
[14:29] {dino} gj
01[14:29] {@Threei} 1:3
01[14:30] {@Threei} ty
01[14:30] {@Threei} second 1:3er makes it better
01[14:30] {@Threei} not positive yet but takes the sting out
[14:32] {dino} sleeper type day
01[14:32] {@Threei} 1:4
01[14:32] {@Threei} out
[14:33] {Jenh} gj
01[14:54] {@Threei} VXX had more in it
[15:02] {RonS} off to a meeting...later all...
01[15:03] {@Threei} take care ron
[15:05] {Jenh} bye Ron
[15:18] {dino} xlrn drop
01[15:22] {@Threei} Long Setup: TZA .70 break
01[15:22] {@Threei} If holds .65
01[15:29] {@Threei} half out
01[15:29] {@Threei} balance stop to .69
01[15:41] {@Threei} Long Setup: VXX .05 break
01[15:41] {@Threei} If holds .98
01[15:43] {@Threei} nah
01[15:44] {@Threei} a few too many stops today, finishing slightly negative despite nice comeback
01[15:47] {@Threei} thank you all, have a good evening'see you tomorrow
[15:47] {Jenh} thanks 3i! good night everyone
[15:50] {JoebiWan} bye all
[15:51] {dino} gn all
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