Slightly negative for the day, as gap'n'stall defines the session. Ended with nice win that alnost took the day to b/e
Session Time: Thu Jan 08 00:00:01 2015
[09:14] {nemo} sheesh it was -6f when I got up
01[09:14] {@Threei} I need permanent F-C translator...
[09:15] {Raven} -7F here in SW Michigan
[09:16] {RonS} unreal +48 here in Denver
01[09:17] {@Threei} OK... around 50 here
[09:17] {Raven} shaddup
01[09:17] {@Threei} yes sir
[09:17] {Raven} like frickin' Winnipeg here
01[09:17] {@Threei} but you can always look up Winnipeg to feel better
01[09:17] {@Threei} lol
[09:18] {dptl} gm
01[09:18] {@Threei} dp :)
[09:18] {cosmo} 56F :)
[09:19] {Raven} oh please cosmo
[09:19] {cosmo} =13C
[09:19] {nemo} this guy was an awesome writer: http://goo.gl/tpLrp3
[09:24] {cosmo} Deep freeze sends market bears into hibernation
01[09:26] {@Threei} Upside:
01[09:26] {@Threei} -BIND +51% (updates Phase 2 BIND-014 trial & outlined '15 strategic overview)
01[09:26] {@Threei} -NBIX +24% (Phase 3 study of Elagolix)
01[09:26] {@Threei} -RECN +7% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei} -S +6.9% (prelim Q3 platform net adds 967K v. 827K)
01[09:26] {@Threei} -ARO +6.2% (raised Q4 guidance)
01[09:26] {@Threei} -MNKD +6.2% (earned $50M milestone payment from SNY)
01[09:26] {@Threei} -URBN +6% (Dec/holiday SSS)
01[09:26] {@Threei} -SMRT +5% (Dec SSS)
01[09:26] {@Threei} -ISIS +3.8% (guided FY14 pro forma net operating loss in mid-high teens)
01[09:26] {@Threei} -NVS +2.1% (FDA panel unanimously supports EP2006 for preventing infections during chemotherapy)
01[09:26] {@Threei} -CYTR +22% (phase 2 data)
01[09:26] {@Threei} -CONN +8% (Dec SSS)
[09:26] {nemo} yeah ISIS went up after the Paris shootings
01[09:27] {@Threei} Downside:
01[09:27] {@Threei} -INFI -14% (Phase 2 study of Duvelisib missed primary endpoint)
01[09:27] {@Threei} -PODD -8 (guided Q4 lower)
01[09:27] {@Threei} -AFSI -5% (priced 3M share offering for net proceeds at $150M - implies price of $50)
01[09:27] {@Threei} -STML -5% (offering common stock of indeterminate amount & licensing deal of small molecule reversible inhibitor of Exportin-1 (XPO1))
01[09:27] {@Threei} -GWPH -4.8% (first of three Sativex Phase 3 pain trials failed to meet endpoint)
01[09:27] {@Threei} -ALXN -3.7% (Phase 2 trial of Eculizumab did not meet primary endpoints)
01[09:27] {@Threei} -WDFC -3% (earnings)
01[09:31] {@Threei} Long Setup: VXX .55 break
01[09:31] {@Threei} If holds .50
01[09:34] {@Threei} meh
[09:34] {nemo} going for the overnight high in the futes
01[09:36] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB .35 break
01[09:36] {@Threei} If holds .45
01[09:36] {@Threei} Invalidated
[09:38] {dptl} wll 29 break short?
[09:39] {dptl} inval
[09:39] {nemo} they're driving the futures
01[09:39] {@Threei} Long Setup: FB .55 break
01[09:39] {@Threei} If holds .45
01[09:40] {@Threei} change to .50
[09:40] {nemo} two way
01[09:40] {@Threei} If holds .40
[09:42] {nemo} short .44
01[09:42] {@Threei} Invalidated
[09:42] {nemo} stop above .50
[09:42] {nemo} 1:1
[09:42] {nemo} stop to .40
01[09:43] {@Threei} Long Setup: TWTR .30 break
01[09:43] {@Threei} If holds .20
01[09:43] {@Threei} 1:1
[09:43] {dptl} lol
01[09:45] {@Threei} Long Setup: VXX .60 break
01[09:45] {@Threei} If holds .50
[09:46] {nemo} out
[09:46] {nemo} should stop just above .50
01[09:49] {@Threei} come on already SPY, gravity exists
[09:50] {nemo} shoulda' held my original stop
[09:50] {nemo} spy likely to test R3 @.90 which puts it in spitting distance to 205
01[09:52] {@Threei} there is so much air under it, should let some out first
01[09:52] {@Threei} 1:1
[09:53] {dptl} twtr .10 break short?
[09:54] {dptl} no..inv
01[09:54] {@Threei} dp, not first 30 min
[09:58] {dino} pcrx smr l .86
01[10:00] {@Threei} Long Setup: TWTR .35 break
01[10:00] {@Threei} If holds .25
01[10:01] {@Threei} trail to .29 after .40 break
01[10:02] {@Threei} 1:1
01[10:05] {@Threei} Long Setup: C .80 break
01[10:06] {@Threei} If holds .70
01[10:10] {@Threei} no go
[10:10] {dptl} out
[10:10] {JoebiWan} out twtr, ty
[10:10] {nemo} spy 61.8 retrace right here
01[10:10] {@Threei} yw
01[10:11] {@Threei} dp, have you taken VXX and TWTR?
[10:11] {dptl} no, just took c
01[10:11] {@Threei} pray tell why
01[10:12] {@Threei} neither was difficult to get in
01[10:13] {@Threei} we spoke about 200 times that your picking and choosing ruins the system
01[10:13] {@Threei} then you complain about having bad day
01[10:13] {@Threei} and then do the same thing next day
[10:15] {nemo} spy gap close coming BTFD!!!
[10:18] {nemo} not a single red stock on the algo 44 strong/44green
01[10:18] {@Threei} Long Setup: FB .85 break
01[10:18] {@Threei} If holds .75
01[10:18] {@Threei} 1:1
[10:19] {dptl} turn up stock and its at .93
01[10:21] {@Threei} of course
01[10:21] {@Threei} why have you skipped those two cvalls?
01[10:21] {@Threei} -v
01[10:21] {@Threei} you even asked me about another stock while VXX was in play
01[10:22] {@Threei} are you firmly determined to continue self-sabotage to the bitter end?
[10:22] {dptl} twtr i just symply missed....and vxx i just didt understand
01[10:23] {@Threei} TWTR was slow enough for entry
01[10:23] {@Threei} and we have made an agreement
01[10:23] {@Threei} I don't care what you understand, you promised to take trades called
01[10:23] {@Threei} and to ask about yor own, and take them only on confirmation
[10:26] {dptl} yes, will do that now....i just want to understand the reason for trade, and when i dont understand i just have hard time to press that button
01[10:27] {@Threei} Long Setup: TNA .20 break hl
01[10:27] {@Threei} sorry, I am not launching into that discussion for upteenth time
01[10:27] {@Threei} I thought we were done with that
01[10:28] {@Threei} Invalidated
[10:32] {dptl} vlo .80 brak short?
[10:32] {dino} out pcrx 87.36, +1.50
[10:32] {JoebiWan} nice
01[10:32] {@Threei} wtg
[10:32] {RonS} gj
[10:32] {dino} ty
[10:39] {dptl} dal .60 break short?
01[10:41] {@Threei} yes
[10:45] {dptl} stopped
01[10:45] {@Threei} of course
[10:45] {nemo} shorting today, sheesh...gap close .43 spy, then maybe
[10:48] {nemo} gap close now let's see if they're serious
[10:48] {nemo} DP, you need to look at the bigger picture...you were pissing into the wind on that short
[10:54] {nemo} CAT weak
[11:08] {JoebiWan} xom .10 break?
01[11:08] {@Threei} nah
01[11:08] {@Threei} 50 cents run up
01[11:09] {@Threei} with just one red bar
[11:13] {nemo} waiting on 11:30 europe close
01[11:16] {@Threei} revresal should be close
[11:18] {dptl} yhoo?
01[11:18] {@Threei} Long Setup: VXX 31 break
01[11:18] {@Threei} If holds .90
01[11:20] {@Threei} Invalidated
01[11:20] {@Threei} for now
01[11:21] {@Threei} WASHINGTON - Facing tight budgets and a shrinking military, the Pentagon said on Jan. 8 it was ending operations at an air base in Britain and handing it and 14 other sites in Europe back to their home governments in a move projected to save $500 million annually.
01[11:24] {@Threei} valid again
[11:25] {dino} just what putin wants
01[11:25] {@Threei} remind me again, how many billions fed was pouring in every month during QE3?
01[11:26] {@Threei} but now haklf billion a year is so important that we withdraw from Europe, right when it's under war threat first time since WW2?
01[11:39] {@Threei} let's trail to .94
01[11:39] {@Threei} long stall
01[11:41] {@Threei} lose that .45 already SPY
01[11:41] {@Threei} and crash
01[11:41] {@Threei} 1:1
[11:42] {nemo} It is inherently difficult to organize anarchists. - Will Spencer
01[11:43] {@Threei} tell me you took it dp
[11:43] {dptl} yes out some at 1:1 ty
01[11:43] {@Threei} wow
01[11:43] {@Threei} I am impressed
01[11:44] {@Threei} I disagree nemo
01[11:44] {@Threei} it's easy - just tell them that their orders are to remain disorganized
[11:46] {dino} afsi sm l .01
[11:51] {RonS} afsi secondary today at $50
[11:52] {dino} yeah, saw that
[11:57] {RonS} ulta looks toppy
[11:59] {RonS} volume too low to do much
01[12:01] {@Threei} http://www.cbc.ca/fifth/episodes/2014-2015/putins-long-shadow
[12:08] {dino} out afsi .25, +.24
01[12:11] {@Threei} 1:2
01[12:11] {@Threei} wow... took its sweet time
01[12:11] {@Threei} 30 min between 1:1 and 1:2
01[12:13] {@Threei} will try for 1:4
01[12:13] {@Threei} 1:3
[12:13] {dptl} all out ty
01[12:14] {@Threei} yw
01[12:21] {@Threei} The lower weekly jobless claims numbers plus hopes for another ~250K print in the December non-farm payrolls report tomorrow are helping sustain today's rally. In Europe, signs of deflation in the November PPI data and poor German factory orders may have assisted the run higher, placing even more pressure on the ECB to launch QE right away. With risk on, the 10-year yield is back above 2.0% as yield curve steepens
01[12:21] {@Threei} WTI crude is just shy of $49, just below the level seen over the last 24 hours. Analysts continue to predict a recovery in prices in 2015. BoA said WTI would close out the year at $82 and Brent at $87, although the firm was saying just yesterday that Brent could test $40 in near term and WTI could test $35.
01[12:37] {@Threei} Long Setup: YHOO 50 break
01[12:37] {@Threei} If holds .90
01[12:42] {@Threei} 1:1
[12:50] {dptl} out on trail yhoo
[12:53] {dptl} jpm .45 break short?
01[12:54] {@Threei} not here not there
[12:54] {dptl} ok
[12:55] {dptl} what about wmt?
[12:56] {dptl} .25 break sh ?
01[12:56] {@Threei} are you ao eager to take the trade after trade after trade when market is frozen?
01[12:56] {@Threei} why are you in this hyperactive trade search mode at this time of the day?
01[12:57] {@Threei} YHOO was impossible to resist C&H, clean as a whistle, one of the best chart patterns out there
01[12:58] {@Threei} all these you list are mediocre setups at best, having beetter than average chance to work only in a very strong trend
01[12:58] {@Threei} during lunch time on a large gap up day, during market stall?
[12:58] {dptl} ye you right...
01[12:59] {@Threei} hell, you'd have to hit my fingers with a hummer to make me take any of these
01[13:00] {@Threei} look how both of them do absolutely nothing
[13:00] {dptl} yes
[13:05] {RonS} kate spanked
01[13:06] {@Threei} lol
01[13:14] {@Threei} Long Setup: JPM .55 break
01[13:14] {@Threei} If holds .45
01[13:18] {@Threei} https://fbcdn-sphotos-g-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xaf1/v/t1.0-9/10376739_681485841898450_9589814516565067_n.jpg?oh=000fccfc94db8d3f922bdde930b05611&oe=552957B2&__gda__=1429408237_2e5b36fecdf199d914be987a06cd5d30
[13:19] {JoebiWan} lol Ron, just saw that
[13:19] {RonS} lol 3i...perfect
01[13:19] {@Threei} :)
[13:34] {nathan} hi gents
01[13:34] {@Threei} hey nathan
[13:34] {nathan} how was it?
01[13:34] {@Threei} decent
[13:34] {nathan} nice rally this morning
01[13:39] {@Threei} got good 1:3 on VXX too when SPY pulled back
01[13:40] {@Threei} hat, private message please
[13:40] {nathan} gj men
[13:44] {nathan} why vxx is not shortable?
01[13:46] {@Threei} hat, asnwer private message
[13:50] {nemo} use xiv nathan
[13:51] {nathan} vxx is the ETN inverse of xiv?
01[13:51] {@Threei} rather XIV is inverse of VXX
[13:52] {nathan} right
[13:53] {RonS} true story...when younger knew an older guy named Hatton so went by Hat...a real character who had been a barnstormer in the '20's... one night he got up to go to the bathroom... the wife's cat had crapped on the floor and he stepped in it... hat got a gun and shot the cat...
01[13:54] {@Threei} tell me wife got a gun and shot him
[13:55] {RonS} she told the story to me and laughed about it...
01[13:55] {@Threei} now I want to shoot both
[13:56] {RonS} well, both have passed so you will have to wait...
01[13:56] {@Threei} oh well
01[13:57] {@Threei} at least I hope that cat was the first to greet them there, with a good smack on the head
[13:57] {nathan} hat didnt answer?
01[13:57] {@Threei} did
01[13:58] {@Threei} don't see news for this sharp selling
[13:59] {dptl} stopped jp
[13:59] {RonS} oil crashing again sub 48
[14:02] {RonS} rtrx gone pulp
[14:03] {RonS} $RTRX gets FDA Orphan Designation for Sparsentan for treatment of Focal Segmental Glomerulosclerosis http://stks.co/j1X4Y
01[14:04] {@Threei} Long Setup: VXX .35 break
01[14:04] {@Threei} If holds .25
01[14:05] {@Threei} Invalidated
[14:08] {dptl} .20 break ?vxx
01[14:08] {@Threei} can't tell
[14:09] {dptl} ok
[14:17] {RonS} pic.twitter.com/Q1BKUrwh6J
01[14:18] {@Threei} lol
01[14:26] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .65 break
01[14:26] {@Threei} .c .55
01[14:27] {@Threei} If holds .55
01[14:28] {@Threei} SPY looks to me like going to day high
[14:29] {RonS} crude back to 49ish
01[14:32] {@Threei} 1:1
[14:32] {dino} feels that way 3i
[14:32] {dino} can't take it down, so up it goes
01[14:33] {@Threei} yeah, gravoty has been canceled
01[14:33] {@Threei} gravity
[14:35] {dptl} out trail iwm
01[14:43] {@Threei} divergence IWM/SPY
01[14:43] {@Threei} too bad... SPY new highs
[14:51] {nemo} so, is this a setup for NFP numbers tomorrow
[14:57] {dino} boring afternoon. 2 trades positive in am, nothing else
[14:57] {dino} no spikes, no drops
01[14:57] {@Threei} Short Setup: DAL 48 break
[14:58] {dino} zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
01[14:58] {@Threei} If holds .10
01[14:58] {@Threei} large gap day, and no news, dino...
[14:58] {dino} i understand
[14:58] {nemo} typical V bottom
[14:58] {nemo} higher low
01[14:59] {@Threei} *(US) NOV CONSUMER CREDIT: $14.08B V $15.0BE
01[15:00] {@Threei} no go
[15:01] {dptl} stopped dal
[15:02] {nathan} gents have a good night
[15:02] {nemo} vaya con pollo
01[15:03] {@Threei} take care nathan
[15:03] {dino} pollo?
[15:03] {RonS} lol
[15:03] {nathan} con pollo?
[15:03] {nathan} wtf??? ;-)
[15:03] {nemo} already used diablo, first thing that came to mind
[15:03] {dino} why not chicas
[15:03] {nemo} what no se gusta pollo?
[15:03] {dptl} cop .10 break short?
01[15:04] {@Threei} no
[15:04] {dptl} ok
01[15:04] {@Threei} it's a long of anything
[15:05] {dino} dp, "be water"
[15:05] {nemo} oh jeez
[15:05] {nemo} don't get me started
01[15:05] {@Threei} nemo: be vodka
[15:05] {RonS} go take a leak?
[15:05] {nemo} Bruce Lee and his pop Taoism
[15:06] {dino} c'mon, he's fighting the current
[15:06] {nemo} who is
[15:06] {dino} dp
[15:07] {dptl} you know...i just ..again... dont know what to be...killing myself slowly again...
[15:08] {dino} you remind me of magoo. always have to have a trade on.
[15:09] {dptl} i am doing about 50percent less trades now...
01[15:09] {@Threei} day after day, same story. You follow our agreement, you do much better. You break it, it's a train wreck
[15:09] {dino} wait for your edge, cut your tading in half or more, take yuor high percentage trades
[15:09] {nemo} you also don't see the bigger picture of the market and it's implications
01[15:09] {@Threei} why the hell do you "not know what to do," is beyond me
[15:09] {nemo} we ground up, and stayed in a relatively tight range.
01[15:09] {@Threei} do what we discussed and agreeed you do
01[15:10] {@Threei} why is it always "I took all losing trades, I skipped all winning ones??"
[15:10] {nemo} only index to drop to vwap today were the finnies
[15:10] {dino} no point in pushing a stuck gap up market. just relax, sit back and wait
[15:10] {RonS} ande used to be andes...
[15:10] {nemo} so basically should be long trades only
[15:11] {nemo} on top of that grind up days tend to give fewer good setups
[15:11] {dptl} i took 7 of your trades today Vad...didt trade anything mine
01[15:11] {@Threei} didn't you say you skipped some?
01[15:11] {@Threei} so did yesterday
[15:11] {nemo} early ones
01[15:11] {@Threei} "I don';t know why I didnt"
[15:12] {dptl} missed couple, but stayed with yours till the end
[15:14] {dptl} i even turned everything off, left only two charts on my screen
[15:19] {RonS} kate says: wtf? who ever paid any attention to BMO?
01[15:19] {@Threei} Long Setup: JPM .60 break
01[15:20] {@Threei} If holds .52
01[15:21] {@Threei} change to .55 break
01[15:21] {@Threei} If holds .50
[15:29] {nemo} these new bunny treats taste pretty good
01[15:30] {@Threei} you incur from her reaction or taste them yourself?
[15:31] {nemo} myself
01[15:32] {@Threei} well... someone took advice "be vodka" literally
[15:32] {nemo} be the bunny
[15:32] {RonS} lol
01[15:33] {@Threei} have to disappoint you - there was no successful attempt to replace all the blood in one's body by vodka in history of a mankind
01[15:33] {@Threei} partial successes, yes... Russian experimentators cam as close as possible
[15:33] {nemo} chop chop chop into the close
01[15:34] {@Threei} yeah, that's why I am try for aggressive entries with tight stops only
[15:34] {nemo} I had a couple of successful vxx scalps this afternoon, that's it
01[15:34] {@Threei} meh
01[15:45] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .55 break
01[15:45] {@Threei} If holds .50
01[15:47] {@Threei} half out
01[15:47] {@Threei} stop to .54
01[15:51] {@Threei} thank you all, have a great evening
01[15:51] {@Threei} see you tomorrow
[15:53] {dino} gn all
[15:53] {JoebiWan} gn
[15:53] {dptl} gn all
[15:53] {dino} gn all
[15:53] {JoebiWan} gn
[15:53] {dptl} gn all
[15:57] {dptl} out more iwm ty
[15:59] {dptl} all out .74
Thursday, January 8, 2015
Wednesday, January 7, 2015
Jan 07 2015
Started the day in back and forth manner, with wins and rinses ahead of FOMC minutes. After the release however things became more orderly and 4 winning trades in a row fixed the day right up.
Session Start: Wed Jan 07 03:17:16 2015
[09:06] {dino} gm
01[09:07] {@Threei} dino :)
[09:14] {dptl} gm
01[09:14] {@Threei} dp :)
[09:17] {JoebiWan} gm
01[09:17] {@Threei} jw :)
01[09:25] {@Threei} Upside:
01[09:25] {@Threei} -GALT +38% (positive Phase 1 trial results on GR-MD-02)
01[09:25] {@Threei} -PKT +23% (Q4 guidance)
01[09:25] {@Threei} -ARNA +14% (reports positive Phase 1b clinical trial evaluating APD334 for autoimmune disease)
01[09:25] {@Threei} -SONC +8.2% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei} -SVU +5% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei} -PEP +2.7% (3G Capital reportedly eying targets in food & beverage sector with $5B fund; BUD & CPB also up marginally on the news)
01[09:25] {@Threei} -HALO +2.4% (FY15 guidance)
01[09:25] {@Threei} -GMCR +2.2% (confirmed deal with DPS to bring products to Keurig Cold System)
01[09:25] {@Threei} -JCP +22% (strong SSS)
01[09:25] {@Threei} Downside:
01[09:25] {@Threei} -KBIO -68% (discontinued KN001-A in cystic fibrosis - failed to meet primary endpoint)
01[09:25] {@Threei} -MU -2.7% (Q2 guidance)
01[09:25] {@Threei} -MERU -2.7% (Q4 guidance)
[09:26] {ese} gm
01[09:27] {@Threei} ese :)
[09:27] {ese} mornin vad
[09:31] {dino} out ual from yesterday 63.76 to 65.12, +1.36
[09:31] {JoebiWan} gj
[09:32] {dino} ty
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup: VXX .80 break
01[09:32] {@Threei} If holds .70
01[09:33] {@Threei} trail to .74
[09:34] {ese} eeeeeeeouuuuuuuuuuuuuzzzaaaaaaa dino nice
[09:34] {nemo} FED @2 today
01[09:34] {@Threei} out
01[09:35] {@Threei} minutes?
[09:35] {nemo} 2:00 PM
[09:35] {nemo} minutes
[09:36] {nemo} car explosion just went off in Paris in front of a Synagogue
01[09:41] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM 116 break
01[09:41] {@Threei} If holds .90
01[09:42] {@Threei} 1:1
[09:42] {nemo} sheesh
01[09:47] {@Threei} Long Setup: COP .85 break
01[09:47] {@Threei} If holds .75
[09:48] {ese} was a shooting in Paris.....executions of a magaine staff that lampoons Mohamid alot
[09:48] {ese} ad
01[09:49] {@Threei} 1:1
[09:49] {dino} my god better than your god nonsense
[09:49] {cosmo} omg
[09:49] {ese} really pisses me off
[09:49] {nemo} Putin has the right solution for that shit
[09:50] {dino} yes, bury them in pig skins
[09:50] {ese} I hate to say it but yes
[09:50] {dino} world would be a better place without religion
[09:51] {ese} sad to say but yes
[09:51] {nemo} no...he finds out who the perpetrators are then kills them and as many relatives of theirs as he can find. He wants them to know their extended family will be joining them in Paradise
[09:51] {nemo} remember the Chechen attack on the Moscow theater a few years back?
[09:51] {dino} y
[09:51] {nemo} Haven't heard much about Moslem problems over there have you?
[09:52] {nemo} Sent the Speznaz into Chechnya
[09:52] {nemo} wiped out entire villages
[09:52] {dino} the west is too soft, too much of this "feelings" crap
[09:52] {nemo} rule of law crap
[09:53] {dino} "dick your neighbor" rule
[09:54] {cosmo} is there a natural law rule?
[09:54] {nemo} yeah...survival of the fittest
[09:54] {cosmo} live and let live?
01[09:54] {@Threei} Long Setup: MCD .50 break
01[09:54] {@Threei} If holds .40
[09:55] {cosmo} And that 'live and let live" answer got me sent out to the hall once
[09:55] {nemo} not really cosmo, the world is one big food chain
[09:56] {cosmo} got it
[09:56] {nemo} Antelopes tried that on the tigers...didn't go over so well
[09:56] {dino} yes, as soon as you relax somebody hits you
01[09:56] {@Threei} I find North Dakotians a bit too chewy
[09:56] {nemo} marinade them longer
01[09:56] {@Threei} oh
[09:57] {dino} sort of like cannibals not liking clowns....they taste funny
01[09:57] {@Threei} I thought they spent too much time in the freezer
[09:57] {nemo} depends on what they've been eating...you want to hunt around corn country
01[09:57] {@Threei} 1:1
[09:57] {dptl} wheredid you get in mcd Vad?
[09:57] {nemo} city humans often filled with junk food and soda....taste like shit
01[09:58] {@Threei} .52
[09:58] {dptl} i couldnt
[09:58] {nemo} best thing to do is wound them, take them home and feed them for a few days then butcher them
[09:58] {dptl} didnt even see it trade...went to .57
01[10:02] {@Threei} Short Setup: GLD .35 break
01[10:02] {@Threei} If holds .45
[10:02] {nemo} no surprise after such a down run, only strong stocks on algo
[10:08] {ese} Goldman Sach Ceo Blankfein interview still bullish on the mrkt......CNBC
[10:09] {RonS} how can he be otherwise?
01[10:11] {@Threei} no go
[10:12] {cosmo} when he's covering shorts
[10:13] {RonS} ahem, when you are covering shorts you are bullish...
[10:17] {nemo} he's talking his book so his traders can unload on the sheep
01[10:20] {@Threei} Long Setup: WMT .85 break
01[10:20] {@Threei} If holds .75
[10:23] {ese} as much as it pains to to say it......i'm in nemos court....anytime somebody says something like bullish on the mrkt....ya gotta think otherwise...don't think theres any question....at least in my mind the retail and institutional guys are gonna dump into the mrkt
01[10:24] {@Threei} no go
[10:24] {dptl} out
[10:24] {dptl} taking break
01[10:31] {Threei} did my VXX 33 call go through??
[10:31] {dino} vxx l .11
[10:31] {JoebiWan} no
01[10:31] {Threei} was right about disconnect time
01[10:32] {Threei} crrrrrap
01[10:32] {Threei} was waiting for pullback
[10:32] {dino} out vxx .23, +.12
[10:32] {ese} sheesh......terminated
01[10:34] {Threei} Long Setup: VXX .10 break
01[10:34] {Threei} If holds 33
[10:35] {dptl} wich stock? disconected
01[10:35] {Threei} VXX
[10:36] {dptl} was it .10 break?
01[10:36] {Threei} stop to .04
01[10:37] {Threei} out
01[10:37] {Threei} 1 cent to 1:1
[10:38] {dptl} twtr .90 long?
[10:39] {RonS} somg
01[10:39] {Threei} not if loses .85
01[10:40] {Threei} no kidding
01[10:40] {Threei} grrr
[10:40] {dptl} ok..ye was thinking with .84 stop
01[10:41] {Threei} crap VXX, what a rinse
01[10:44] {Threei} Short Setup: JPM .05 break
01[10:44] {Threei} If holds .10
01[10:45] {Threei} Invalidated
01[10:54] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .15 break
01[10:54] {@Threei} If holds .05
01[10:55] {@Threei} not getting rhythm
[10:56] {nemo} FED day
[10:56] {dptl} out
01[11:01] {@Threei} JNPR Hearing takeover chatter circulating- IBM rumored as a potential acquirer \
02[11:01] * Disconnected
03[11:07] * Rejoined channel #discussions
01[11:07] {Threei} what the deuce today
01[11:08] {Threei} Ukraine separatists claim cyber attack on German sites
[11:08] {dptl} dis .65 short?
01[11:08] {Threei} hit our server in the process or what
01[11:08] {Threei} yes
[11:10] {nemo} JOY
01[11:11] {Threei} we are happy for you
01[11:11] {Threei} what exactly did you do to achieve this state?
[11:11] {nemo} see that volume spike
[11:11] {nemo} copious amounts of vodka
01[11:11] {Threei} ah
[11:12] {nemo} Hey DP, still drinking Hangar 1?
[11:12] {dptl} ?
[11:12] {nemo} short JOY stop above .25
[11:15] {nemo} thought you did, must be somebody else
01[11:18] {Threei} Long Setup: VXX .50 break
01[11:18] {Threei} If holds .40
01[11:18] {Threei} Invalidated
[11:19] {nemo} SPY going back to vwap
01[11:19] {Threei} sheesh
01[11:19] {Threei} ok, valid again
[11:19] {nemo} EBAY
[11:20] {nemo} frickin JOY is chinese water torture
[11:22] {nemo} stop to .20
01[11:22] {Threei} 1:1 DIS
[11:22] {nemo} EBAY
01[11:23] {Threei} lose that 201 SPY
01[11:23] {Threei} and crash
01[11:26] {Threei} 1:1 VXX
[11:26] {nemo} I'm scratching JOY
01[11:26] {Threei} ummmm
01[11:26] {Threei} ron... not a word
01[11:26] {Threei} (although I know how difficult it is to refrain)
[11:27] {nemo} yeah, JOY was jerking me
01[11:31] {Threei} 1:2 DIS
[11:32] {dptl} out dis on trail
[11:35] {dptl} wll .15 break short?
[11:36] {dptl} or .20 better?
[11:37] {dptl} got away
01[11:37] {Threei} yeah
01[11:37] {Threei} shot through the whole range
[11:37] {dptl} oops i got .13
[11:38] {ese} mmmm terminated again
[11:38] {dptl} will keep .26 stop
01[11:38] {Threei} you missed nemo having real JOY, ese
[11:40] {ese} Scwarzenegar has nothing on me....thats twice this morning
[11:40] {ese} lol
01[11:40] {Threei} start covering dp
[11:40] {ese} for some reason i have a very vivid picture of that and his joy
01[11:40] {Threei} it can jump back up quickly
[11:40] {dptl} out..small shares
[11:41] {nemo} could argue ebay short here, but FED lunchtime
[11:43] {dptl} dal .05 break long?
[11:43] {nemo} next short area for ebay would be .95ish
01[11:43] {Threei} DAL, yes
[11:45] {dptl} .94 stop
06[11:50] * Threei kicks DAL in the turbine
[11:51] {nemo} you'll lose ur foot that way
01[11:53] {Threei} see what sacrifice I am willing to make for dp's profits?
01[11:55] {Threei} 1:1
06[11:55] * Threei slaps dptl around a bit with a large roll of cash
[11:55] {ese} gotta go...cya tomorrow
01[11:55] {Threei} take care ese
[12:00] {dptl} i'll trail under .10 now
01[12:01] {Threei} 1:2
[12:01] {dptl} .14 now
[12:02] {JoebiWan} gdx .20 short?
01[12:03] {Threei} chart's right
01[12:03] {Threei} .27 would be invalidation
01[12:03] {Threei} nah, invalid
[12:04] {dptl} out dal
[12:05] {dptl} need two more like that one to be in black
[12:06] {dptl} but no time, have to catch a plane back home in a couple of hours
[12:08] {@dino} dks spike
[12:08] {@dino} halt
01[12:12] {Threei} DKS Said to be holding early stage LBO talks
01[12:12] {Threei} dino, dcc pls
01[12:14] {Threei} Crude prices fell further during the European session, with the front-month WTI contract touching fresh 5.5 year lows around $47. Rumors made the rounds as US traders were coming into the market that Saudi King Abdullah may have died, goosing WTI up to nearly $49.50, although there was no substance to the talk.
01[12:14] {Threei} The latest polls out of Greece show Syriza with a three-point lead over the New Democracy. Meanwhile, the Eurozone December CPI data suggested that disinflation has deepened in Europe. The euro continues to take on water, with EUR/USD at nine-year lows around 1.1820.
01[12:16] {Threei} http://www.arrestinglight.com/blog/2015/1/christmas-lights
[12:18] {dptl} may be another dal .25 break long?
[12:19] {dptl} what do you think Vad?
01[12:19] {@Threei} nah
01[12:19] {@Threei} 50/50
[12:19] {dptl} ok
[12:21] {dptl} vlo?
[12:23] {dptl} oh ...twtr short .90 break?
[12:27] {@dino} dks sm s .71
[12:30] {dptl} ok.. well have to leave.....see ya tomorrow all
[12:31] {RonS} cya dp
[12:31] {@dino} cov dks .11, +.60
[12:31] {JoebiWan} gj
[12:36] {dino} still btfd
01[13:26] {@Threei} At the December meeting, the Fed made its long await language tweak, from "considerable time" to "patient", that was meant to signify the start of a new phase in which the central bank will begin contemplating the path to policy normalization. Much of the focus on today's minutes will be on how the members arrived at this choice of words and what other language might have been considered. At the December press conference Chair Yellen indicated that "patient" means no tightening for at least the next two meetings. The minutes will continue to stress that rate policy is data dependent, and thus can evolve either faster or slower depending on upcoming trends in the data.
01[13:27] {@Threei} There were 3 dissents (2 hawkish and 1 dovish) at the meeting so there is clearly a hot debate going on about the timing and pace of scaling back accommodative policy, but it's not clear if much new will be learned about this in today's minutes. Based on comments from FOMC member speeches, the general consensus appears to be that once rate lift off occurs they will not put rate hikes on autopilot, and most members believe that rates will rise more slowly this time than they have in the past.
[13:27] {dino} juno drop
01[14:00] {@Threei} *(US) MINUTES OF THE DEC 16-17TH FOMC MEETING: NEAR TERM INFLATION DECLINE REFLECTED FALLING ENERGY PRICES AND STRONGER USD; FALL IN ENERGY TO SHOW NET POSITIVE TO JOBS GROWTH AND ECONOMY
01[14:04] {@Threei} hectic
01[14:07] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .20 break
01[14:07] {@Threei} If holds .10
01[14:08] {@Threei} 1:1
01[14:31] {@Threei} looks like breakout is coming
01[14:32] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .30 break
01[14:32] {@Threei} If holds .20
01[14:33] {@Threei} 1:1
01[14:33] {@Threei} 1:2
01[14:36] {@Threei} 1:3
01[14:37] {@Threei} good call 3i
01[14:37] {@Threei} why thank you
01[14:37] {@Threei} be back in 30
[14:38] {dino} aldr spike
[14:39] {RonS} aldr spikes like it's bamboo?
[14:40] {dino} damn, missed it, waiting at .15, never came back
[15:00] {dino} aldr spikes again
[15:02] {RonS} aldr laying some wood?
[15:03] {dino} 2ndary few days ago, odd
[15:03] {dino} break of .00 will trig short
[15:05] {dino} wide
01[15:05] {@Threei} lol ron
[15:06] {dino} alks spike
[15:10] {RonS} small biotech popping like they are firecrackers...chain reaction
[15:11] {dino} just need yellen to yell about them again
[15:13] {dino} good girl aldr, covered .48, +.50
[15:13] {dino} opps, cov .38, +.60, my bad
[15:14] {dino} in any case, too soon
[15:14] {RonS} glad you cleared that up, was looking at t&s thinking wtf? gj
[15:15] {RonS} hlf ripping
[15:15] {dino} ty, had .58, changed the buy/cov to .38, just mind f#ck on the .48
[15:15] {dino} but incredibly early, dropped another .50
[15:17] {dino} too many distractions lately, things should calm down next week for me. just had bid accepted for another foreclosure.
[15:18] {dino} awwwww aldr
01[15:19] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .40 break
01[15:19] {@Threei} .c .30
01[15:19] {@Threei} If holds .30
[15:20] {RonS} ya well, better than having aldr burn you :)
01[15:20] {@Threei} I like poultry smoked with alrd
[15:20] {RonS} lol just thinking being in PA you have no idea what alder is...
[15:21] {RonS} grows like a weed in the northwest...
01[15:21] {@Threei} appl, chrry and pear work well too
[15:21] {nemo} VXX anybody
01[15:21] {@Threei} hmmm
[15:22] {dino} aldr...clueless
01[15:22] {@Threei} feels like spike and run into eod to me...
[15:22] {RonS} http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alder
01[15:22] {@Threei} kind of tree on the west coast, dino :)
01[15:23] {@Threei} change IWM to .35 break
[15:23] {RonS} biotech runs coming in...
[15:23] {dino} ok
01[15:25] {@Threei} change IWM to .30 break
01[15:26] {@Threei} If holds .20
01[15:29] {@Threei} 1:1
[15:36] {RonS} 3i, did i ever tell you about the origina refuseniks who live around Mt. Angel Oregon?
[15:36] {RonS} +l
01[15:36] {@Threei} no... where are they from?
[15:37] {RonS} they are the guys that Peter the great banished to Siberia
01[15:37] {@Threei} wow... long ago
[15:37] {RonS} thrived there but moved to China in 1917 due to the commies
[15:38] {RonS} then went to Brazil when China fell
01[15:38] {@Threei} sheesh... some like to travel
[15:38] {RonS} then to Clevelan Ohio..then to Mt. Angel
[15:39] {RonS} here i was...a young salesman calling on the town's 100 year old general store...
[15:40] {RonS} coming into the town this hot rod Camaro pulss up at a light...look over...it is a young woman driving in a full blow babooshka
[15:40] {RonS} blon
[15:40] {RonS} blown
01[15:40] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .40 break
01[15:40] {@Threei} If holds .30
[15:40] {RonS} talk about wtf...
01[15:40] {@Threei} hehe
01[15:41] {@Threei} must have been a sight to behold
[15:41] {RonS} funny thing is that the town is all German Catholics with a monastery on the mountain and everything
[15:43] {RonS} Blackie, my customer introduced me to his sister: "this is my sister, sister... she is a nun... lol
01[15:43] {@Threei} meanwhile on another side of the globe:
01[15:43] {@Threei} Lithuania publishes survival manual in case of Russian invasion
01[15:43] {@Threei} Lithuania's national defence minister Juozas Olekas unveiled a new public information book entitled 'How to act in extreme situations or instances of war' at a press conference on Jan. 6, prompted by the threat of a Russian invasion
[15:44] {RonS} illustation of how to kiss your ass goodbye?
01[15:44] {@Threei} 1:1
01[15:44] {@Threei} lol
01[15:44] {@Threei} pretty much
[15:46] {RonS} anyway, blacke's stor, Boschler hardware sold 10X 25 cubic foot chest freezers than anyone else in the state... i asked him why?
[15:46] {RonS} ...he said "the Russians use them for coffins"
01[15:47] {@Threei} wow
01[15:47] {@Threei} never heard that
[15:47] {RonS} me...really...him...no, iam just bullshitting you...
01[15:47] {@Threei} ok... so, they just prefer to have large stock of food for rainy day?
[15:48] {RonS} many deer hunters there...
01[15:48] {@Threei} ah, OK
01[15:48] {@Threei} makes sense
[15:48] {RonS} thought of this whole thing because the Russians did contract with the state to thin the alder forests
01[15:48] {@Threei} nemo eats them at the spot, carass and all, so he needs no freezer
[15:49] {RonS} lol
01[15:49] {@Threei} these 3 concluding IWM trades pretty much righted the day
01[15:49] {@Threei} ok guys, thank you all, have a good evening
01[15:49] {@Threei} see yopu tomorrow
Session Start: Wed Jan 07 03:17:16 2015
[09:06] {dino} gm
01[09:07] {@Threei} dino :)
[09:14] {dptl} gm
01[09:14] {@Threei} dp :)
[09:17] {JoebiWan} gm
01[09:17] {@Threei} jw :)
01[09:25] {@Threei} Upside:
01[09:25] {@Threei} -GALT +38% (positive Phase 1 trial results on GR-MD-02)
01[09:25] {@Threei} -PKT +23% (Q4 guidance)
01[09:25] {@Threei} -ARNA +14% (reports positive Phase 1b clinical trial evaluating APD334 for autoimmune disease)
01[09:25] {@Threei} -SONC +8.2% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei} -SVU +5% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei} -PEP +2.7% (3G Capital reportedly eying targets in food & beverage sector with $5B fund; BUD & CPB also up marginally on the news)
01[09:25] {@Threei} -HALO +2.4% (FY15 guidance)
01[09:25] {@Threei} -GMCR +2.2% (confirmed deal with DPS to bring products to Keurig Cold System)
01[09:25] {@Threei} -JCP +22% (strong SSS)
01[09:25] {@Threei} Downside:
01[09:25] {@Threei} -KBIO -68% (discontinued KN001-A in cystic fibrosis - failed to meet primary endpoint)
01[09:25] {@Threei} -MU -2.7% (Q2 guidance)
01[09:25] {@Threei} -MERU -2.7% (Q4 guidance)
[09:26] {ese} gm
01[09:27] {@Threei} ese :)
[09:27] {ese} mornin vad
[09:31] {dino} out ual from yesterday 63.76 to 65.12, +1.36
[09:31] {JoebiWan} gj
[09:32] {dino} ty
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup: VXX .80 break
01[09:32] {@Threei} If holds .70
01[09:33] {@Threei} trail to .74
[09:34] {ese} eeeeeeeouuuuuuuuuuuuuzzzaaaaaaa dino nice
[09:34] {nemo} FED @2 today
01[09:34] {@Threei} out
01[09:35] {@Threei} minutes?
[09:35] {nemo} 2:00 PM
[09:35] {nemo} minutes
[09:36] {nemo} car explosion just went off in Paris in front of a Synagogue
01[09:41] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM 116 break
01[09:41] {@Threei} If holds .90
01[09:42] {@Threei} 1:1
[09:42] {nemo} sheesh
01[09:47] {@Threei} Long Setup: COP .85 break
01[09:47] {@Threei} If holds .75
[09:48] {ese} was a shooting in Paris.....executions of a magaine staff that lampoons Mohamid alot
[09:48] {ese} ad
01[09:49] {@Threei} 1:1
[09:49] {dino} my god better than your god nonsense
[09:49] {cosmo} omg
[09:49] {ese} really pisses me off
[09:49] {nemo} Putin has the right solution for that shit
[09:50] {dino} yes, bury them in pig skins
[09:50] {ese} I hate to say it but yes
[09:50] {dino} world would be a better place without religion
[09:51] {ese} sad to say but yes
[09:51] {nemo} no...he finds out who the perpetrators are then kills them and as many relatives of theirs as he can find. He wants them to know their extended family will be joining them in Paradise
[09:51] {nemo} remember the Chechen attack on the Moscow theater a few years back?
[09:51] {dino} y
[09:51] {nemo} Haven't heard much about Moslem problems over there have you?
[09:52] {nemo} Sent the Speznaz into Chechnya
[09:52] {nemo} wiped out entire villages
[09:52] {dino} the west is too soft, too much of this "feelings" crap
[09:52] {nemo} rule of law crap
[09:53] {dino} "dick your neighbor" rule
[09:54] {cosmo} is there a natural law rule?
[09:54] {nemo} yeah...survival of the fittest
[09:54] {cosmo} live and let live?
01[09:54] {@Threei} Long Setup: MCD .50 break
01[09:54] {@Threei} If holds .40
[09:55] {cosmo} And that 'live and let live" answer got me sent out to the hall once
[09:55] {nemo} not really cosmo, the world is one big food chain
[09:56] {cosmo} got it
[09:56] {nemo} Antelopes tried that on the tigers...didn't go over so well
[09:56] {dino} yes, as soon as you relax somebody hits you
01[09:56] {@Threei} I find North Dakotians a bit too chewy
[09:56] {nemo} marinade them longer
01[09:56] {@Threei} oh
[09:57] {dino} sort of like cannibals not liking clowns....they taste funny
01[09:57] {@Threei} I thought they spent too much time in the freezer
[09:57] {nemo} depends on what they've been eating...you want to hunt around corn country
01[09:57] {@Threei} 1:1
[09:57] {dptl} wheredid you get in mcd Vad?
[09:57] {nemo} city humans often filled with junk food and soda....taste like shit
01[09:58] {@Threei} .52
[09:58] {dptl} i couldnt
[09:58] {nemo} best thing to do is wound them, take them home and feed them for a few days then butcher them
[09:58] {dptl} didnt even see it trade...went to .57
01[10:02] {@Threei} Short Setup: GLD .35 break
01[10:02] {@Threei} If holds .45
[10:02] {nemo} no surprise after such a down run, only strong stocks on algo
[10:08] {ese} Goldman Sach Ceo Blankfein interview still bullish on the mrkt......CNBC
[10:09] {RonS} how can he be otherwise?
01[10:11] {@Threei} no go
[10:12] {cosmo} when he's covering shorts
[10:13] {RonS} ahem, when you are covering shorts you are bullish...
[10:17] {nemo} he's talking his book so his traders can unload on the sheep
01[10:20] {@Threei} Long Setup: WMT .85 break
01[10:20] {@Threei} If holds .75
[10:23] {ese} as much as it pains to to say it......i'm in nemos court....anytime somebody says something like bullish on the mrkt....ya gotta think otherwise...don't think theres any question....at least in my mind the retail and institutional guys are gonna dump into the mrkt
01[10:24] {@Threei} no go
[10:24] {dptl} out
[10:24] {dptl} taking break
01[10:31] {Threei} did my VXX 33 call go through??
[10:31] {dino} vxx l .11
[10:31] {JoebiWan} no
01[10:31] {Threei} was right about disconnect time
01[10:32] {Threei} crrrrrap
01[10:32] {Threei} was waiting for pullback
[10:32] {dino} out vxx .23, +.12
[10:32] {ese} sheesh......terminated
01[10:34] {Threei} Long Setup: VXX .10 break
01[10:34] {Threei} If holds 33
[10:35] {dptl} wich stock? disconected
01[10:35] {Threei} VXX
[10:36] {dptl} was it .10 break?
01[10:36] {Threei} stop to .04
01[10:37] {Threei} out
01[10:37] {Threei} 1 cent to 1:1
[10:38] {dptl} twtr .90 long?
[10:39] {RonS} somg
01[10:39] {Threei} not if loses .85
01[10:40] {Threei} no kidding
01[10:40] {Threei} grrr
[10:40] {dptl} ok..ye was thinking with .84 stop
01[10:41] {Threei} crap VXX, what a rinse
01[10:44] {Threei} Short Setup: JPM .05 break
01[10:44] {Threei} If holds .10
01[10:45] {Threei} Invalidated
01[10:54] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .15 break
01[10:54] {@Threei} If holds .05
01[10:55] {@Threei} not getting rhythm
[10:56] {nemo} FED day
[10:56] {dptl} out
01[11:01] {@Threei} JNPR Hearing takeover chatter circulating- IBM rumored as a potential acquirer \
02[11:01] * Disconnected
03[11:07] * Rejoined channel #discussions
01[11:07] {Threei} what the deuce today
01[11:08] {Threei} Ukraine separatists claim cyber attack on German sites
[11:08] {dptl} dis .65 short?
01[11:08] {Threei} hit our server in the process or what
01[11:08] {Threei} yes
[11:10] {nemo} JOY
01[11:11] {Threei} we are happy for you
01[11:11] {Threei} what exactly did you do to achieve this state?
[11:11] {nemo} see that volume spike
[11:11] {nemo} copious amounts of vodka
01[11:11] {Threei} ah
[11:12] {nemo} Hey DP, still drinking Hangar 1?
[11:12] {dptl} ?
[11:12] {nemo} short JOY stop above .25
[11:15] {nemo} thought you did, must be somebody else
01[11:18] {Threei} Long Setup: VXX .50 break
01[11:18] {Threei} If holds .40
01[11:18] {Threei} Invalidated
[11:19] {nemo} SPY going back to vwap
01[11:19] {Threei} sheesh
01[11:19] {Threei} ok, valid again
[11:19] {nemo} EBAY
[11:20] {nemo} frickin JOY is chinese water torture
[11:22] {nemo} stop to .20
01[11:22] {Threei} 1:1 DIS
[11:22] {nemo} EBAY
01[11:23] {Threei} lose that 201 SPY
01[11:23] {Threei} and crash
01[11:26] {Threei} 1:1 VXX
[11:26] {nemo} I'm scratching JOY
01[11:26] {Threei} ummmm
01[11:26] {Threei} ron... not a word
01[11:26] {Threei} (although I know how difficult it is to refrain)
[11:27] {nemo} yeah, JOY was jerking me
01[11:31] {Threei} 1:2 DIS
[11:32] {dptl} out dis on trail
[11:35] {dptl} wll .15 break short?
[11:36] {dptl} or .20 better?
[11:37] {dptl} got away
01[11:37] {Threei} yeah
01[11:37] {Threei} shot through the whole range
[11:37] {dptl} oops i got .13
[11:38] {ese} mmmm terminated again
[11:38] {dptl} will keep .26 stop
01[11:38] {Threei} you missed nemo having real JOY, ese
[11:40] {ese} Scwarzenegar has nothing on me....thats twice this morning
[11:40] {ese} lol
01[11:40] {Threei} start covering dp
[11:40] {ese} for some reason i have a very vivid picture of that and his joy
01[11:40] {Threei} it can jump back up quickly
[11:40] {dptl} out..small shares
[11:41] {nemo} could argue ebay short here, but FED lunchtime
[11:43] {dptl} dal .05 break long?
[11:43] {nemo} next short area for ebay would be .95ish
01[11:43] {Threei} DAL, yes
[11:45] {dptl} .94 stop
06[11:50] * Threei kicks DAL in the turbine
[11:51] {nemo} you'll lose ur foot that way
01[11:53] {Threei} see what sacrifice I am willing to make for dp's profits?
01[11:55] {Threei} 1:1
06[11:55] * Threei slaps dptl around a bit with a large roll of cash
[11:55] {ese} gotta go...cya tomorrow
01[11:55] {Threei} take care ese
[12:00] {dptl} i'll trail under .10 now
01[12:01] {Threei} 1:2
[12:01] {dptl} .14 now
[12:02] {JoebiWan} gdx .20 short?
01[12:03] {Threei} chart's right
01[12:03] {Threei} .27 would be invalidation
01[12:03] {Threei} nah, invalid
[12:04] {dptl} out dal
[12:05] {dptl} need two more like that one to be in black
[12:06] {dptl} but no time, have to catch a plane back home in a couple of hours
[12:08] {@dino} dks spike
[12:08] {@dino} halt
01[12:12] {Threei} DKS Said to be holding early stage LBO talks
01[12:12] {Threei} dino, dcc pls
01[12:14] {Threei} Crude prices fell further during the European session, with the front-month WTI contract touching fresh 5.5 year lows around $47. Rumors made the rounds as US traders were coming into the market that Saudi King Abdullah may have died, goosing WTI up to nearly $49.50, although there was no substance to the talk.
01[12:14] {Threei} The latest polls out of Greece show Syriza with a three-point lead over the New Democracy. Meanwhile, the Eurozone December CPI data suggested that disinflation has deepened in Europe. The euro continues to take on water, with EUR/USD at nine-year lows around 1.1820.
01[12:16] {Threei} http://www.arrestinglight.com/blog/2015/1/christmas-lights
[12:18] {dptl} may be another dal .25 break long?
[12:19] {dptl} what do you think Vad?
01[12:19] {@Threei} nah
01[12:19] {@Threei} 50/50
[12:19] {dptl} ok
[12:21] {dptl} vlo?
[12:23] {dptl} oh ...twtr short .90 break?
[12:27] {@dino} dks sm s .71
[12:30] {dptl} ok.. well have to leave.....see ya tomorrow all
[12:31] {RonS} cya dp
[12:31] {@dino} cov dks .11, +.60
[12:31] {JoebiWan} gj
[12:36] {dino} still btfd
01[13:26] {@Threei} At the December meeting, the Fed made its long await language tweak, from "considerable time" to "patient", that was meant to signify the start of a new phase in which the central bank will begin contemplating the path to policy normalization. Much of the focus on today's minutes will be on how the members arrived at this choice of words and what other language might have been considered. At the December press conference Chair Yellen indicated that "patient" means no tightening for at least the next two meetings. The minutes will continue to stress that rate policy is data dependent, and thus can evolve either faster or slower depending on upcoming trends in the data.
01[13:27] {@Threei} There were 3 dissents (2 hawkish and 1 dovish) at the meeting so there is clearly a hot debate going on about the timing and pace of scaling back accommodative policy, but it's not clear if much new will be learned about this in today's minutes. Based on comments from FOMC member speeches, the general consensus appears to be that once rate lift off occurs they will not put rate hikes on autopilot, and most members believe that rates will rise more slowly this time than they have in the past.
[13:27] {dino} juno drop
01[14:00] {@Threei} *(US) MINUTES OF THE DEC 16-17TH FOMC MEETING: NEAR TERM INFLATION DECLINE REFLECTED FALLING ENERGY PRICES AND STRONGER USD; FALL IN ENERGY TO SHOW NET POSITIVE TO JOBS GROWTH AND ECONOMY
01[14:04] {@Threei} hectic
01[14:07] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .20 break
01[14:07] {@Threei} If holds .10
01[14:08] {@Threei} 1:1
01[14:31] {@Threei} looks like breakout is coming
01[14:32] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .30 break
01[14:32] {@Threei} If holds .20
01[14:33] {@Threei} 1:1
01[14:33] {@Threei} 1:2
01[14:36] {@Threei} 1:3
01[14:37] {@Threei} good call 3i
01[14:37] {@Threei} why thank you
01[14:37] {@Threei} be back in 30
[14:38] {dino} aldr spike
[14:39] {RonS} aldr spikes like it's bamboo?
[14:40] {dino} damn, missed it, waiting at .15, never came back
[15:00] {dino} aldr spikes again
[15:02] {RonS} aldr laying some wood?
[15:03] {dino} 2ndary few days ago, odd
[15:03] {dino} break of .00 will trig short
[15:05] {dino} wide
01[15:05] {@Threei} lol ron
[15:06] {dino} alks spike
[15:10] {RonS} small biotech popping like they are firecrackers...chain reaction
[15:11] {dino} just need yellen to yell about them again
[15:13] {dino} good girl aldr, covered .48, +.50
[15:13] {dino} opps, cov .38, +.60, my bad
[15:14] {dino} in any case, too soon
[15:14] {RonS} glad you cleared that up, was looking at t&s thinking wtf? gj
[15:15] {RonS} hlf ripping
[15:15] {dino} ty, had .58, changed the buy/cov to .38, just mind f#ck on the .48
[15:15] {dino} but incredibly early, dropped another .50
[15:17] {dino} too many distractions lately, things should calm down next week for me. just had bid accepted for another foreclosure.
[15:18] {dino} awwwww aldr
01[15:19] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .40 break
01[15:19] {@Threei} .c .30
01[15:19] {@Threei} If holds .30
[15:20] {RonS} ya well, better than having aldr burn you :)
01[15:20] {@Threei} I like poultry smoked with alrd
[15:20] {RonS} lol just thinking being in PA you have no idea what alder is...
[15:21] {RonS} grows like a weed in the northwest...
01[15:21] {@Threei} appl, chrry and pear work well too
[15:21] {nemo} VXX anybody
01[15:21] {@Threei} hmmm
[15:22] {dino} aldr...clueless
01[15:22] {@Threei} feels like spike and run into eod to me...
[15:22] {RonS} http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alder
01[15:22] {@Threei} kind of tree on the west coast, dino :)
01[15:23] {@Threei} change IWM to .35 break
[15:23] {RonS} biotech runs coming in...
[15:23] {dino} ok
01[15:25] {@Threei} change IWM to .30 break
01[15:26] {@Threei} If holds .20
01[15:29] {@Threei} 1:1
[15:36] {RonS} 3i, did i ever tell you about the origina refuseniks who live around Mt. Angel Oregon?
[15:36] {RonS} +l
01[15:36] {@Threei} no... where are they from?
[15:37] {RonS} they are the guys that Peter the great banished to Siberia
01[15:37] {@Threei} wow... long ago
[15:37] {RonS} thrived there but moved to China in 1917 due to the commies
[15:38] {RonS} then went to Brazil when China fell
01[15:38] {@Threei} sheesh... some like to travel
[15:38] {RonS} then to Clevelan Ohio..then to Mt. Angel
[15:39] {RonS} here i was...a young salesman calling on the town's 100 year old general store...
[15:40] {RonS} coming into the town this hot rod Camaro pulss up at a light...look over...it is a young woman driving in a full blow babooshka
[15:40] {RonS} blon
[15:40] {RonS} blown
01[15:40] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .40 break
01[15:40] {@Threei} If holds .30
[15:40] {RonS} talk about wtf...
01[15:40] {@Threei} hehe
01[15:41] {@Threei} must have been a sight to behold
[15:41] {RonS} funny thing is that the town is all German Catholics with a monastery on the mountain and everything
[15:43] {RonS} Blackie, my customer introduced me to his sister: "this is my sister, sister... she is a nun... lol
01[15:43] {@Threei} meanwhile on another side of the globe:
01[15:43] {@Threei} Lithuania publishes survival manual in case of Russian invasion
01[15:43] {@Threei} Lithuania's national defence minister Juozas Olekas unveiled a new public information book entitled 'How to act in extreme situations or instances of war' at a press conference on Jan. 6, prompted by the threat of a Russian invasion
[15:44] {RonS} illustation of how to kiss your ass goodbye?
01[15:44] {@Threei} 1:1
01[15:44] {@Threei} lol
01[15:44] {@Threei} pretty much
[15:46] {RonS} anyway, blacke's stor, Boschler hardware sold 10X 25 cubic foot chest freezers than anyone else in the state... i asked him why?
[15:46] {RonS} ...he said "the Russians use them for coffins"
01[15:47] {@Threei} wow
01[15:47] {@Threei} never heard that
[15:47] {RonS} me...really...him...no, iam just bullshitting you...
01[15:47] {@Threei} ok... so, they just prefer to have large stock of food for rainy day?
[15:48] {RonS} many deer hunters there...
01[15:48] {@Threei} ah, OK
01[15:48] {@Threei} makes sense
[15:48] {RonS} thought of this whole thing because the Russians did contract with the state to thin the alder forests
01[15:48] {@Threei} nemo eats them at the spot, carass and all, so he needs no freezer
[15:49] {RonS} lol
01[15:49] {@Threei} these 3 concluding IWM trades pretty much righted the day
01[15:49] {@Threei} ok guys, thank you all, have a good evening
01[15:49] {@Threei} see yopu tomorrow
Tuesday, January 6, 2015
January February 2015 Market Outlook
TradeTheNews.com January
February 2015 Outlook: Hamlet Economics
Tue, 06 Jan 2015 22:28 PM EST
"Brevity is the soul of wit" as Shakespeare wrote. In the context of present day monetary policy one could wish that the top caliber minds behind central bank policies had the knack for keeping their efforts clear, concise, and finite. Instead, going into the seventh year since the financial crisis erupted, the policy makers at the forefront of responding to the economic malaise are still hemming and hawing like Hamlet, offering up soliloquies when action is demanded. After waiting through most of 2014 for the Fed to wrap up its quantitative easing program and turn toward contemplating normalization, markets are now lining up to see the same show again in Europe.
The drama for the global economy has only been heightened by the plays within the play Greece's latest political crisis, Russia's land grab and the resulting sanctions, Saudi Arabia's high stakes game of chicken with rival oil producers, and the two top Asian economies still struggling to restore their former glory. How these stories play out in the months ahead will ultimately help determine whether or not this period in time will be regarded as a tragedy.
To QE or not to QE
The question of whether the last resort of quantitative easing is needed has already been answered in the affirmative by the Fed and the Bank of Japan, and now it looks like the European Central Bank will soon join the club. The euro currency has broken below the $1.20 mark, its weakest since 2006, on the growing expectation that the ECB will foray into QE and on reports that ejecting Greece from the euro zone may now be a palatable alternative.
The ECB has taken its time laying the groundwork for a full blown QE program, announcing last fall it had started the technical work for a possible program, even as it took other measures in the form of its ABS purchase program (dubbed "QE light"), refreshing its long term repo operation, and cutting rates to the zero bound. At the December policy meeting, ECB President Draghi said they were still assessing the success of these programs and signaled a decision on QE would likely come in Q1 though probably not until the second meeting under the new bank schedule, meaning early March.
Incoming inflation data may cause him to step up the timetable for the initial QE announcement to the January 22 meeting, as deflation fears might overcome worries about giving member governments more slack to avoid making tough fiscal choices. Adding oil market weakness into the mix, the upcoming December euro zone CPI data (Jan 7) could fall into negative territory after hitting a 5-year low in November. This would put more pressure on even the most reluctant ECB council members to act sooner rather than later on QE. Even if it was entirely driven by depressed oil prices, any negative inflation readings could break the fragile psychology of the European recovery thesis.
One formality that needs to be cleared for QE to launch is getting the go-ahead from the European Court of Justice, which said a few months back it would render its official opinion regarding the ECB Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) program in mid-January (ruling to be issued Jan 14). Formulated in 2012, the OMT program undertakes outright transactions in secondary, sovereign bond markets, aimed "at safeguarding an appropriate monetary policy transmission and the singleness of the monetary policy." German officials, including the ECB's Weidmann have argued that the OMT blurs role of economic and monetary policy, but a stamp of approval from the high court may stifle those objections and by extension clear the path for quantitative easing.
The implementation details of QE will be closely scrutinized and the latest reports indicate that three main options are being considered. The first and most straightforward option would be for the ECB to buy government bonds in quantities proportionate to each euro zone member state's shareholding in the central bank. The second option would be for the ECB to stick with buying only AAA-rated government bonds in the hopes that it would inspire investors to then buy riskier sovereign and corporate debt. The third option would empower national central banks to purchase their own bonds at their own risk, a move that might placate Germany's concerns about QE.
How the Greek situation plays out this month may help determine which route QE takes. The latest political crisis in Athens has come down to a snap election on January 25, and has some euro zone leaders up in arms. The leftist opposition Syriza Party, which is leading in the polls, has paid lip service to remaining in the euro zone, while simultaneously bashing austerity measures that have helped the country restore its standing within the common currency zone. Meanwhile newspaper reports say that, even though the refrain during the first Greek crisis in 2010 was that the euro zone is "irreversible," this time around Germany is willing to countenance a Greek exit from the euro. Both positions are likely negotiating tactics. If thrust into power, Syriza's leader may find he has to take a more pragmatic approach to governing that would keep Greece in the euro, while the Germans can't be thrilled about a "Grexit" eroding their goal of "more Europe" and creating a precedent for other peripheral nations to throw in the towel on the euro experiment.
As the polls narrow into the election, the worst outcome might be a stalemate that leads to a second election and keeps Greece in the spotlight. The IMF has temporarily suspended its financial aid to Greece pending the formation of a new government and should that process drag on it could impede ECB plans to start buying sovereign debt as long as it is unclear if the euro zone will have 19 or 18 members going forward.
Words, Words, Words
What's in a word? Going into the last rounds of QE3, Fed watchers waited months for a sign that policy has turned a corner toward rate lift off in 2015. Finally in December, the Fed policy statement substituted the word "patient" for the phrase "considerable time." And that was it. The change was meant to indicate a shift away from a calendar based concept of rate tightening policy (that was assumed to be about six months after the end of QE3), but then the Fed went right on to say that patient is consistent with its considerable time language and explained that patient means no action for at least two more meetings.
This explanation did have the effect of easing concerns about any early action by the Fed as the hawks have been urging. But it opens up a new question for Fed policy regarding how the word patient carries forward. If the January 28 FOMC statement still says the central bank is "patient," then does that signal an all clear for no policy action for an additional two meetings? Indications are yes. It may be the eventual removal of that word that tells us the Fed is ready to act within the next couple of meetings, but the central bank will have to clarify this through future communications.
The FOMC voting rotation will see 2014's two hawkish dissenters, Fisher and Plosser, not only move out of the voting membership of the committee but also step down from the Fed entirely. The new more decidedly dovish slate of FOMC voters should give Yellen the latitude to conduct monetary policy the way she deems fit without putting her feet to the fire on the close calls between action and waiting that may be ahead.
What could cement or even accelerate Fed rate liftoff would be evidence of wage inflation. Payroll gains have averaged above 220 thousand for the last year, but the latest reading hit a four year high at 321 thousand, perhaps portending a breakout. If the US can post more job gains like this it could quickly take unemployment down to its natural level around five to five and a half percent, and more importantly ignite some wage growth, which is one of the missing pieces of a healthy US economy. This will be helped somewhat by 21 states enacting minimum wage increases this year, though for the most part they are modest stepping stones toward the $10.10 minimum wage that the Obama Administration has proposed. Countering that may be the loss of many high paying shale oil jobs in Western states as the fracking industry contends with the precipitous drop in oil prices.
Something is Rotten in the State of...
Analysts continue to debate the impact of lower oil prices on the national and global economies. The majority view is that though the price drop has been unnervingly sudden, it will ultimately be a boon for consumers, acting as a tax cut as pump prices drop.
The counter arguments consist of stability concerns. The drop in energy prices was so fast that it begs these questions: where is the demand, and could it be the sign of a fresh global slowdown that is being masked by the robust US economy? The oil plunge is already affecting high yield bonds linked to energy investments and there are concerns this could spread contagion to other asset classes.
Russia is the poster child for the destabilizing effects of the oil plunge. The double whammy of lower oil prices and western sanctions extinguished growth prospects for Russia, sent the ruble spinning lower, and forced the central bank into a large emergency rate hike.
If President Putin, who has thus far shown his foreign policy can be unpredictable and capricious, feels backed into a corner with no chance of saving face, he may see his best path forward as pursuing the notion of restoring "Novorossiya," a process already started with the seizure of Crimea. The latest actions from the Kremlin naming NATO as Russia's greatest threat and the increasing incidents of Russia military planes violating neighboring airspace don't point to de-escalation any time soon. Lately, however, Russia's foreign ministry has been stepping up its diplomatic profile, volunteering to act as an arbitrator for the conflict in Syria between the Assad regime and rebel groups. This tactic may suggest that President Putin might be looking for an opportune moment to extract himself from the Ukraine conflict in a way that would allow him to claim the mantle of "peace broker" and could lead to destructive sanctions being lifted (while keeping Crimea as his prize).
The oil market's supply side issues begin and end with Saudi Arabia, whose policy has become to use its low production costs to try and force out higher cost competitors while maintaining its own market share. The Saudis haven't made this a secret after strong arming OPEC into maintaining current production targets, the Saudis basically said that it is up to North American producers to deal with the glut in the market. Some gulf oil producers have stated they expected oil to stabilize at around $60/bbl for Brent crude, though they have also made it clear they will leave that determination up to the market, at least for now. A slide toward $40/bbl as some market mavens are squawking about could change the Saudi perspective as even their high margins turn razor thin, and a February meeting with a working group of three other large producers (Mexico, Russia and Venezuela) may be a window for reconsidering production policy.
Creating a wrinkle in this situation are reports that Saudi King Abdullah is in poor health again after a bout with pneumonia. Though the kingdom has a solid succession protocol in place should the 90 year old monarch become incapacitated, a change in leadership can always create some uncertainty, and there is the question of whether Crown Price Salman will stick with the policies of his half brother Abdullah. There is also always the outside chance that a regime change will create an opening for the Arab Spring to finally reach the Arabian Peninsula (the regime helped quell a nascent movement in 2011 by liberally spreading money around).
Suffering the Slings and Arrows
Asian two powerhouse economies have continued to spread their own money around, but stimulus has met with mixed results. Chinese trade flagged during late 2014, as indicated by lower than expected exports in November and negative year over year imports. The Ministry of Commerce let the cat out of the bag when it erroneously published its year end 2014 trade forecast, showing slower than expected growth. Trade officials tried to paper over the mistake by announcing a list of qualitative goals, but the implication is that the PRC might miss its 7.5% GDP forecast for the year.
In contrast, Chinese stocks rocketed higher in the last six weeks of 2014 after the PBOC cut its key rates and regulators opened the Shanghai-Hong Kong connect, providing domestic investors much greater access to the stock market. The latter move was also aimed at luring more foreign capital in China's latest effort to reshape its economy. If the central government ventures more bold reform efforts like this and its year-long crackdown on corruption, the markets may be more forgiving of its fabled growth engine easing back on the throttle.
China will be the first of the major economies to report Q4 GDP results (Jan 19). The report will need to be fairly strong to raise the 7.4% average for the first three quarters of the year by one tenth. A slight miss of the 7.5% target would not be a devastating blow, however, as all signs are that the official forecast for 2015 growth will be stepped down to around 7% at the spring party plenum in March. Growth readings in Q1 may be dampened somewhat by the Chinese New Year on February 19, kicking off the Spring Festival Golden Week, a period when economic activity grinds to a near halt. In light of slower growth, many analysts are expecting Chinese institutions to provide liberal stimulus this year, and one should not discount the chances of another PBOC rate cut as early as in Q1.
In Japan, the springtime tax increase hurt growth more than expected and pushed the economy into a fresh recession. To counteract it, the government just approved a slightly larger than expected $29 billion stimulus package for the next fiscal year that is forecast to boost the GDP by 0.7%, mostly by providing money for local projects.
This may be the make or break year for Abenomics. It provided some early success, and optimism was demonstrated by a revitalized stock market, but the latest data are calling into question whether the three arrows hit their mark. In late January the BOJ will issue new economic predictions, which are increasingly expected to include a cut in price forecasts. If the country cannot beat off deflation and pull out of its present recession even with the additional stimulus being provided, Mr. Abe could quickly end up as just another name on the list of failed Japanese PMs of the 21st century.
The yen may be the best barometer for predicting Japan's near future. So far, the weakening Japanese currency has been a helpful side effect of the implementation of Abenomics, boosting exports. But prosperity through currency debasement can only work for so long, and some analysts are now positing that if the yen moves past the decade low of 123 against the greenback, it could create a panic that would erode confidence in the JGBs that undergird Japan's QE strategy. While this is an outside scenario, it has to be contemplated given the jarring 10% move in the yen during the last quarter.
Methinks She Doth Protest Too Much
For all the hand wringing going on over the present situation it helps to recall how much progress has been made. A global depression was avoided even if at the expense of an extensive stimulus structure that may be difficult to dismantle. Stock markets in the US, Japan, and China had a great 2014, and even European bourses posted modest gains.
The Fed is now contemplating the first move toward reversing the global stimulus apparatus, though it will be tricky with other central banks in the midst of expanding their own accommodation programs. The first part of the year will be full of speculation about whether the Fed will finally start tightening rates mid-year or if global economic headwinds will be strong enough to keep Chair Yellen vacillating about rate policy. Good news as bad news sentiment may arise in the US if the jobs picture continues to improve and wage inflation emerges clearly enough to justify accelerating rate lift off.
It is as yet unclear if US economic strength is a harbinger for the rest of the world or if it will capitulate to the global weakness. The compression in government bond markets argues for the latter. The German government debt curve has compressed so much that yields are now negative up through the 5-year bund, which has bad implications for deflation alarmists, and the US 10-year yield is back below 2%.
The behavior of the forex market may be the best leading indicator for the months ahead. After the recent powerful move in the yen and the scary gyrations in the ruble, greater stability in currency markets would be a blessing. Dollar strength may not end until crude finds a bottom, which means the euro and yen could fall further in the months ahead as BOJ and ECB pump money into QE programs. The stronger dollar will result in lower prices for US imports, which could delay progress toward the Fed's 2% inflation target, and could also take the wind out of US earnings as Q4 results start to come in during January. Along with the fear of deflation, Europe still has growth concerns, but euro weakness will provide a tailwind and along with lower energy prices could get investors more excited about continental markets in the months ahead if they believe QE will instill some new confidence and that Grexit worries will fade.
On the other hand, markets have already baked in expectations that European QE is imminent so more market turmoil could be in store if the new ECB measures are delayed for any reason. For the ECB, the time for jawboning and deliberation is over. Draghi needs to heed the admonition "more matter with less art."
CALENDAR
January
5: Germany CPI
6: US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; US Factory Orders
7: Euro Zone CPI Estimate, Euro Zone Unemployment; US Trade Balance; FOMC Minutes
8: Euro Zone Retail Sales; BOE policy decision; China CPI & PPI; China Trade Balance (tentative)
9: UK Manufacturing Production; US Unemployment and Payrolls
12: Japan Current Account
13: China New Loans (tentative); UK CPI & PPI; US Jolts Job Openings
14: ECJ ruling on legality of OMT; Euro Zone Industrial Production; US Advance Retail Sales
15: US PPI
16: US CPI; US Industrial Production; Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
18: China Industrial Production
19: China Q4 GDP; China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
20: Euro Zone Flash Manufacturing PMI; Germany Zew Economic Sentiment; Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index;BOJ policy statement
21: UK Claimant Count & Unemployment; BOE Minutes; US Housing Starts & Building Permits
22: ECB policy statement
23: UK Retail Sales; US Existing Home Sales
25: BOJ Minutes; Japan Trade Balance; Greece snap election
26: German Ifo Business Climate
27: UK Prelim Q4 GDP; US Durable Goods Orders; US Consumer Confidence; US New Home Sales
28: FOMC policy statement; Japan Industrial Production; Japan Retail Sales
29: Germany Prelim CPI; Tokyo CPI
30: Euro Zone Flash CPI Estimate; Euro Zone Unemployment; US Advance Q4 GDP; Chicago PMI
31: China Manufacturing PMI
February
1: China HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI
2: US ISM Manufacturing PMI
3: US Factory Orders
4: Euro Zone Retail Sales; ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
5: BOE policy statement; US Trade Balance
6: UK Trade Balance; US Unemployment & Payrolls
8: Japan Current Account
9: China CPI & PPI; China Trade Balance (tentative)
10: UK Manufacturing Production; US JOLTS Job Openings
11: China New Loans; BOE Inflation Report
12: Euro Zone Industrial Production; US Advance Retail Sales
13: Various EU Prelim Q4 GDP readings; Prelim University of Michigan Confidence
15: Japan Prelim Q4 GDP
16:
17: UK CPI & PPI; German Zew Economic Sentiment; BOJ policy statement
18: UK Claimant Count & Unemployment; BOE minutes; US Housing Starts & Building Permits; US PPI; FOMC minutes; Japan Trade Balance
19: Chinese New Year, start of Golden Week; Euro Zone Flash Q4 GDP; China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
20: Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI
22: BOJ Minutes
23: German Ifo Business Climate; US Existing Homes Sales
24: Euro Zone Final Q4 GDP; Updated EU Forecasts; US Consumer Confidence; Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index; G20 meetings begin (tentative)
25: US New Home Sales; Japan Industrial Production; Japan Retail Sales
26: German Prelim CPI; Targeted LTRO announcement; US CPI; Tokyo CPI
27: US Prelim Q4 GDP (2nd reading); Chicago PMI
28: China Manufacturing PMI
Tue, 06 Jan 2015 22:28 PM EST
"Brevity is the soul of wit" as Shakespeare wrote. In the context of present day monetary policy one could wish that the top caliber minds behind central bank policies had the knack for keeping their efforts clear, concise, and finite. Instead, going into the seventh year since the financial crisis erupted, the policy makers at the forefront of responding to the economic malaise are still hemming and hawing like Hamlet, offering up soliloquies when action is demanded. After waiting through most of 2014 for the Fed to wrap up its quantitative easing program and turn toward contemplating normalization, markets are now lining up to see the same show again in Europe.
The drama for the global economy has only been heightened by the plays within the play Greece's latest political crisis, Russia's land grab and the resulting sanctions, Saudi Arabia's high stakes game of chicken with rival oil producers, and the two top Asian economies still struggling to restore their former glory. How these stories play out in the months ahead will ultimately help determine whether or not this period in time will be regarded as a tragedy.
To QE or not to QE
The question of whether the last resort of quantitative easing is needed has already been answered in the affirmative by the Fed and the Bank of Japan, and now it looks like the European Central Bank will soon join the club. The euro currency has broken below the $1.20 mark, its weakest since 2006, on the growing expectation that the ECB will foray into QE and on reports that ejecting Greece from the euro zone may now be a palatable alternative.
The ECB has taken its time laying the groundwork for a full blown QE program, announcing last fall it had started the technical work for a possible program, even as it took other measures in the form of its ABS purchase program (dubbed "QE light"), refreshing its long term repo operation, and cutting rates to the zero bound. At the December policy meeting, ECB President Draghi said they were still assessing the success of these programs and signaled a decision on QE would likely come in Q1 though probably not until the second meeting under the new bank schedule, meaning early March.
Incoming inflation data may cause him to step up the timetable for the initial QE announcement to the January 22 meeting, as deflation fears might overcome worries about giving member governments more slack to avoid making tough fiscal choices. Adding oil market weakness into the mix, the upcoming December euro zone CPI data (Jan 7) could fall into negative territory after hitting a 5-year low in November. This would put more pressure on even the most reluctant ECB council members to act sooner rather than later on QE. Even if it was entirely driven by depressed oil prices, any negative inflation readings could break the fragile psychology of the European recovery thesis.
One formality that needs to be cleared for QE to launch is getting the go-ahead from the European Court of Justice, which said a few months back it would render its official opinion regarding the ECB Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) program in mid-January (ruling to be issued Jan 14). Formulated in 2012, the OMT program undertakes outright transactions in secondary, sovereign bond markets, aimed "at safeguarding an appropriate monetary policy transmission and the singleness of the monetary policy." German officials, including the ECB's Weidmann have argued that the OMT blurs role of economic and monetary policy, but a stamp of approval from the high court may stifle those objections and by extension clear the path for quantitative easing.
The implementation details of QE will be closely scrutinized and the latest reports indicate that three main options are being considered. The first and most straightforward option would be for the ECB to buy government bonds in quantities proportionate to each euro zone member state's shareholding in the central bank. The second option would be for the ECB to stick with buying only AAA-rated government bonds in the hopes that it would inspire investors to then buy riskier sovereign and corporate debt. The third option would empower national central banks to purchase their own bonds at their own risk, a move that might placate Germany's concerns about QE.
How the Greek situation plays out this month may help determine which route QE takes. The latest political crisis in Athens has come down to a snap election on January 25, and has some euro zone leaders up in arms. The leftist opposition Syriza Party, which is leading in the polls, has paid lip service to remaining in the euro zone, while simultaneously bashing austerity measures that have helped the country restore its standing within the common currency zone. Meanwhile newspaper reports say that, even though the refrain during the first Greek crisis in 2010 was that the euro zone is "irreversible," this time around Germany is willing to countenance a Greek exit from the euro. Both positions are likely negotiating tactics. If thrust into power, Syriza's leader may find he has to take a more pragmatic approach to governing that would keep Greece in the euro, while the Germans can't be thrilled about a "Grexit" eroding their goal of "more Europe" and creating a precedent for other peripheral nations to throw in the towel on the euro experiment.
As the polls narrow into the election, the worst outcome might be a stalemate that leads to a second election and keeps Greece in the spotlight. The IMF has temporarily suspended its financial aid to Greece pending the formation of a new government and should that process drag on it could impede ECB plans to start buying sovereign debt as long as it is unclear if the euro zone will have 19 or 18 members going forward.
Words, Words, Words
What's in a word? Going into the last rounds of QE3, Fed watchers waited months for a sign that policy has turned a corner toward rate lift off in 2015. Finally in December, the Fed policy statement substituted the word "patient" for the phrase "considerable time." And that was it. The change was meant to indicate a shift away from a calendar based concept of rate tightening policy (that was assumed to be about six months after the end of QE3), but then the Fed went right on to say that patient is consistent with its considerable time language and explained that patient means no action for at least two more meetings.
This explanation did have the effect of easing concerns about any early action by the Fed as the hawks have been urging. But it opens up a new question for Fed policy regarding how the word patient carries forward. If the January 28 FOMC statement still says the central bank is "patient," then does that signal an all clear for no policy action for an additional two meetings? Indications are yes. It may be the eventual removal of that word that tells us the Fed is ready to act within the next couple of meetings, but the central bank will have to clarify this through future communications.
The FOMC voting rotation will see 2014's two hawkish dissenters, Fisher and Plosser, not only move out of the voting membership of the committee but also step down from the Fed entirely. The new more decidedly dovish slate of FOMC voters should give Yellen the latitude to conduct monetary policy the way she deems fit without putting her feet to the fire on the close calls between action and waiting that may be ahead.
What could cement or even accelerate Fed rate liftoff would be evidence of wage inflation. Payroll gains have averaged above 220 thousand for the last year, but the latest reading hit a four year high at 321 thousand, perhaps portending a breakout. If the US can post more job gains like this it could quickly take unemployment down to its natural level around five to five and a half percent, and more importantly ignite some wage growth, which is one of the missing pieces of a healthy US economy. This will be helped somewhat by 21 states enacting minimum wage increases this year, though for the most part they are modest stepping stones toward the $10.10 minimum wage that the Obama Administration has proposed. Countering that may be the loss of many high paying shale oil jobs in Western states as the fracking industry contends with the precipitous drop in oil prices.
Something is Rotten in the State of...
Analysts continue to debate the impact of lower oil prices on the national and global economies. The majority view is that though the price drop has been unnervingly sudden, it will ultimately be a boon for consumers, acting as a tax cut as pump prices drop.
The counter arguments consist of stability concerns. The drop in energy prices was so fast that it begs these questions: where is the demand, and could it be the sign of a fresh global slowdown that is being masked by the robust US economy? The oil plunge is already affecting high yield bonds linked to energy investments and there are concerns this could spread contagion to other asset classes.
Russia is the poster child for the destabilizing effects of the oil plunge. The double whammy of lower oil prices and western sanctions extinguished growth prospects for Russia, sent the ruble spinning lower, and forced the central bank into a large emergency rate hike.
If President Putin, who has thus far shown his foreign policy can be unpredictable and capricious, feels backed into a corner with no chance of saving face, he may see his best path forward as pursuing the notion of restoring "Novorossiya," a process already started with the seizure of Crimea. The latest actions from the Kremlin naming NATO as Russia's greatest threat and the increasing incidents of Russia military planes violating neighboring airspace don't point to de-escalation any time soon. Lately, however, Russia's foreign ministry has been stepping up its diplomatic profile, volunteering to act as an arbitrator for the conflict in Syria between the Assad regime and rebel groups. This tactic may suggest that President Putin might be looking for an opportune moment to extract himself from the Ukraine conflict in a way that would allow him to claim the mantle of "peace broker" and could lead to destructive sanctions being lifted (while keeping Crimea as his prize).
The oil market's supply side issues begin and end with Saudi Arabia, whose policy has become to use its low production costs to try and force out higher cost competitors while maintaining its own market share. The Saudis haven't made this a secret after strong arming OPEC into maintaining current production targets, the Saudis basically said that it is up to North American producers to deal with the glut in the market. Some gulf oil producers have stated they expected oil to stabilize at around $60/bbl for Brent crude, though they have also made it clear they will leave that determination up to the market, at least for now. A slide toward $40/bbl as some market mavens are squawking about could change the Saudi perspective as even their high margins turn razor thin, and a February meeting with a working group of three other large producers (Mexico, Russia and Venezuela) may be a window for reconsidering production policy.
Creating a wrinkle in this situation are reports that Saudi King Abdullah is in poor health again after a bout with pneumonia. Though the kingdom has a solid succession protocol in place should the 90 year old monarch become incapacitated, a change in leadership can always create some uncertainty, and there is the question of whether Crown Price Salman will stick with the policies of his half brother Abdullah. There is also always the outside chance that a regime change will create an opening for the Arab Spring to finally reach the Arabian Peninsula (the regime helped quell a nascent movement in 2011 by liberally spreading money around).
Suffering the Slings and Arrows
Asian two powerhouse economies have continued to spread their own money around, but stimulus has met with mixed results. Chinese trade flagged during late 2014, as indicated by lower than expected exports in November and negative year over year imports. The Ministry of Commerce let the cat out of the bag when it erroneously published its year end 2014 trade forecast, showing slower than expected growth. Trade officials tried to paper over the mistake by announcing a list of qualitative goals, but the implication is that the PRC might miss its 7.5% GDP forecast for the year.
In contrast, Chinese stocks rocketed higher in the last six weeks of 2014 after the PBOC cut its key rates and regulators opened the Shanghai-Hong Kong connect, providing domestic investors much greater access to the stock market. The latter move was also aimed at luring more foreign capital in China's latest effort to reshape its economy. If the central government ventures more bold reform efforts like this and its year-long crackdown on corruption, the markets may be more forgiving of its fabled growth engine easing back on the throttle.
China will be the first of the major economies to report Q4 GDP results (Jan 19). The report will need to be fairly strong to raise the 7.4% average for the first three quarters of the year by one tenth. A slight miss of the 7.5% target would not be a devastating blow, however, as all signs are that the official forecast for 2015 growth will be stepped down to around 7% at the spring party plenum in March. Growth readings in Q1 may be dampened somewhat by the Chinese New Year on February 19, kicking off the Spring Festival Golden Week, a period when economic activity grinds to a near halt. In light of slower growth, many analysts are expecting Chinese institutions to provide liberal stimulus this year, and one should not discount the chances of another PBOC rate cut as early as in Q1.
In Japan, the springtime tax increase hurt growth more than expected and pushed the economy into a fresh recession. To counteract it, the government just approved a slightly larger than expected $29 billion stimulus package for the next fiscal year that is forecast to boost the GDP by 0.7%, mostly by providing money for local projects.
This may be the make or break year for Abenomics. It provided some early success, and optimism was demonstrated by a revitalized stock market, but the latest data are calling into question whether the three arrows hit their mark. In late January the BOJ will issue new economic predictions, which are increasingly expected to include a cut in price forecasts. If the country cannot beat off deflation and pull out of its present recession even with the additional stimulus being provided, Mr. Abe could quickly end up as just another name on the list of failed Japanese PMs of the 21st century.
The yen may be the best barometer for predicting Japan's near future. So far, the weakening Japanese currency has been a helpful side effect of the implementation of Abenomics, boosting exports. But prosperity through currency debasement can only work for so long, and some analysts are now positing that if the yen moves past the decade low of 123 against the greenback, it could create a panic that would erode confidence in the JGBs that undergird Japan's QE strategy. While this is an outside scenario, it has to be contemplated given the jarring 10% move in the yen during the last quarter.
Methinks She Doth Protest Too Much
For all the hand wringing going on over the present situation it helps to recall how much progress has been made. A global depression was avoided even if at the expense of an extensive stimulus structure that may be difficult to dismantle. Stock markets in the US, Japan, and China had a great 2014, and even European bourses posted modest gains.
The Fed is now contemplating the first move toward reversing the global stimulus apparatus, though it will be tricky with other central banks in the midst of expanding their own accommodation programs. The first part of the year will be full of speculation about whether the Fed will finally start tightening rates mid-year or if global economic headwinds will be strong enough to keep Chair Yellen vacillating about rate policy. Good news as bad news sentiment may arise in the US if the jobs picture continues to improve and wage inflation emerges clearly enough to justify accelerating rate lift off.
It is as yet unclear if US economic strength is a harbinger for the rest of the world or if it will capitulate to the global weakness. The compression in government bond markets argues for the latter. The German government debt curve has compressed so much that yields are now negative up through the 5-year bund, which has bad implications for deflation alarmists, and the US 10-year yield is back below 2%.
The behavior of the forex market may be the best leading indicator for the months ahead. After the recent powerful move in the yen and the scary gyrations in the ruble, greater stability in currency markets would be a blessing. Dollar strength may not end until crude finds a bottom, which means the euro and yen could fall further in the months ahead as BOJ and ECB pump money into QE programs. The stronger dollar will result in lower prices for US imports, which could delay progress toward the Fed's 2% inflation target, and could also take the wind out of US earnings as Q4 results start to come in during January. Along with the fear of deflation, Europe still has growth concerns, but euro weakness will provide a tailwind and along with lower energy prices could get investors more excited about continental markets in the months ahead if they believe QE will instill some new confidence and that Grexit worries will fade.
On the other hand, markets have already baked in expectations that European QE is imminent so more market turmoil could be in store if the new ECB measures are delayed for any reason. For the ECB, the time for jawboning and deliberation is over. Draghi needs to heed the admonition "more matter with less art."
CALENDAR
January
5: Germany CPI
6: US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; US Factory Orders
7: Euro Zone CPI Estimate, Euro Zone Unemployment; US Trade Balance; FOMC Minutes
8: Euro Zone Retail Sales; BOE policy decision; China CPI & PPI; China Trade Balance (tentative)
9: UK Manufacturing Production; US Unemployment and Payrolls
12: Japan Current Account
13: China New Loans (tentative); UK CPI & PPI; US Jolts Job Openings
14: ECJ ruling on legality of OMT; Euro Zone Industrial Production; US Advance Retail Sales
15: US PPI
16: US CPI; US Industrial Production; Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
18: China Industrial Production
19: China Q4 GDP; China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
20: Euro Zone Flash Manufacturing PMI; Germany Zew Economic Sentiment; Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index;BOJ policy statement
21: UK Claimant Count & Unemployment; BOE Minutes; US Housing Starts & Building Permits
22: ECB policy statement
23: UK Retail Sales; US Existing Home Sales
25: BOJ Minutes; Japan Trade Balance; Greece snap election
26: German Ifo Business Climate
27: UK Prelim Q4 GDP; US Durable Goods Orders; US Consumer Confidence; US New Home Sales
28: FOMC policy statement; Japan Industrial Production; Japan Retail Sales
29: Germany Prelim CPI; Tokyo CPI
30: Euro Zone Flash CPI Estimate; Euro Zone Unemployment; US Advance Q4 GDP; Chicago PMI
31: China Manufacturing PMI
February
1: China HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI
2: US ISM Manufacturing PMI
3: US Factory Orders
4: Euro Zone Retail Sales; ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
5: BOE policy statement; US Trade Balance
6: UK Trade Balance; US Unemployment & Payrolls
8: Japan Current Account
9: China CPI & PPI; China Trade Balance (tentative)
10: UK Manufacturing Production; US JOLTS Job Openings
11: China New Loans; BOE Inflation Report
12: Euro Zone Industrial Production; US Advance Retail Sales
13: Various EU Prelim Q4 GDP readings; Prelim University of Michigan Confidence
15: Japan Prelim Q4 GDP
16:
17: UK CPI & PPI; German Zew Economic Sentiment; BOJ policy statement
18: UK Claimant Count & Unemployment; BOE minutes; US Housing Starts & Building Permits; US PPI; FOMC minutes; Japan Trade Balance
19: Chinese New Year, start of Golden Week; Euro Zone Flash Q4 GDP; China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
20: Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI
22: BOJ Minutes
23: German Ifo Business Climate; US Existing Homes Sales
24: Euro Zone Final Q4 GDP; Updated EU Forecasts; US Consumer Confidence; Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index; G20 meetings begin (tentative)
25: US New Home Sales; Japan Industrial Production; Japan Retail Sales
26: German Prelim CPI; Targeted LTRO announcement; US CPI; Tokyo CPI
27: US Prelim Q4 GDP (2nd reading); Chicago PMI
28: China Manufacturing PMI
Jan 06 2015
Corrections are made as planned, and the results are as expected. Very strong day with winners ranging from 1:1 to 1:5, with a few 1:3ers inbetween.
Session Time: Tue Jan 06 00:00:00 2015
[08:51] {dino} gm 3i
01[08:51] {@Threei} dino :)
[09:16] {dptl} gm
01[09:16] {@Threei} dp :)
[09:17] {RonS} hi guys
01[09:18] {@Threei} ron :)
01[09:27] {@Threei} Upside:
01[09:27] {@Threei} -NERV +60% (positive data showing analog of MN-301 compound improves symptoms of Parkinson's disease)
01[09:27] {@Threei} -RNN +19% (preclinical data for RX-3117 demonstrating effectiveness against Gemcitabine resistant human cancer cells)
01[09:27] {@Threei} -FRO +15% (continue to see solid demand for crude tankers - more tankers are being used for floating storage)
01[09:27] {@Threei} -EBIX +10% (resolution of IRS audit)
01[09:27] {@Threei} -NQ +10% (update on Management stock purchases)
01[09:27] {@Threei} -AOL +4.5% (VZ said to be interested in AOL's programmatic ad tech)
01[09:27] {@Threei} -TASR +2.2% (LAPD to deploy more than 3K TASER Smart Weapons)
01[09:27] {@Threei} Downside:
01[09:27] {@Threei} -CMC -6.2% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei} -XOOM -6% (determined to have been victim of criminal fraud, sees charge of $30.8M & raises Q4 Rev v. prior guidance)
01[09:27] {@Threei} -ARMH -2.2% (no news seen; put activity)
01[09:31] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .40 break
01[09:31] {@Threei} 1:1
01[09:31] {@Threei} lol
[09:31] {nemo} right
01[09:34] {@Threei} Long Setup: VXX .80 break
01[09:34] {@Threei} late
01[09:35] {@Threei} valid again
01[09:35] {@Threei} If holds .70
01[09:35] {@Threei} to .74
01[09:35] {@Threei} 1:1
01[09:36] {@Threei} again, same setup
01[09:36] {@Threei} If holds .75
01[09:36] {@Threei} Invalidated
01[09:37] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .60 break
01[09:37] {@Threei} If holds .50
[09:37] {dino} sap sm l .92
01[09:38] {@Threei} Long Setup: DAL .50 break
01[09:38] {@Threei} If holds .40
01[09:39] {@Threei} Invalidated
01[09:40] {@Threei} X Reportedly planning to lay off more than 600 workers (approx 1.5% of workforce) at Ohio steel plant, citing low oil prices - press -
[09:41] {dptl} vlo .70 break long?
[09:41] {cosmo} they must make rigs at that plant
01[09:42] {@Threei} VLO, not yet
[09:43] {dptl} ok
[09:44] {dino} pipes i think
[09:44] {nemo} VLO is a refiner
[09:44] {nemo} X makes alot of the pipes for drillers
[09:44] {dino} yes
[09:44] {nemo} not gonna' be much drilling for a while
01[09:45] {@Threei} *(US) DEC FINAL MARKIT SERVICES PMI: 53.3 V 53.7E
01[09:47] {@Threei} TWTR Hearing chatter Carl Icahn may be interested in Twitter
[09:47] {nemo} aapl took out yesterday's lows
01[09:47] {@Threei} Long Setup: FB .40 break
01[09:47] {@Threei} .50
[09:47] {ese} gm
01[09:47] {@Threei} If holds .40
01[09:48] {@Threei} ese :)
[09:48] {nemo} Stalinist
[09:49] {ese} out mack .87 +.12
01[09:49] {@Threei} no go
[09:49] {dino} gj
[09:49] {ese} L hct ..4029
01[09:51] {@Threei} Long Setup: TWTR .10 break
01[09:51] {@Threei} If holds 37
01[09:54] {@Threei} 1:1
01[09:54] {@Threei} looks 1:3-ready
01[09:55] {@Threei} nah, just a scalp
01[09:57] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .20 break
01[09:57] {@Threei} If holds .10
[09:57] {nemo} numbers @10
01[09:58] {@Threei} Invalidated
[09:59] {ese} otals Revenue HCT 2014 $194,367(t) 2013 $125,353(t) 2012 $35,738(t)
01[10:00] {@Threei} *(US) NOV FACTORY ORDERS: -0.7% V -0.5%E
[10:00] {ese} Rev stream powering hct
01[10:00] {@Threei} *(US) DEC ISM NON-MANUFACTURING COMPOSITE: 56.2 V 58.0E
[10:00] {ese} hasn't reported Dec for last year yet
[10:00] {ese} sell on news deal
[10:03] {ese} Free money hct sell stop break even .41
01[10:04] {@Threei} Long Setup: VXX .40 break
01[10:04] {@Threei} If holds .30
[10:05] {nemo} JPM
01[10:06] {@Threei} Long Setup: VXX .30 break
01[10:06] {@Threei} If holds .20
01[10:06] {@Threei} 1:1
01[10:06] {@Threei} Short Setup: JPM 60 break
01[10:07] {@Threei} If holds .10
01[10:07] {@Threei} 1:2
[10:08] {dino} sap to b/e
01[10:08] {@Threei} closed on a trail
01[10:08] {@Threei} 1:1 JPM
01[10:09] {@Threei} thanks for bringing it to attention, nemo
[10:09] {nemo} URI TRIP SPWR NXPI JPM IBM GS C URI AMGN DAL UAL GOOGL LNKD COF all weak
[10:10] {ese} hct stop to .50
[10:10] {nemo} only GG strong
[10:11] {ese} stopped .51 +.10
[10:11] {nemo} lotta' red on algo, not much price decline...foreshadowing a bounce or range day
[10:11] {nemo} could be bear trap...duh
[10:12] {nemo} IWM bounced 50 day
[10:13] {nemo} GG KSS APA HUM APC MNST now strong
[10:13] {ese} thats kinda what i'm thinkin nemo....bear trap
[10:14] {nemo} don't hurt yourself ese
[10:14] {ese} take small profit get the heck out
[10:14] {dino} sap to .22
[10:14] {ese} ha ha
[10:14] {nemo} no....by thinking
[10:16] {dino} to .32
[10:18] {dino} out sap .32, +.40
[10:18] {RonS} gj
[10:19] {dino} ty
01[10:22] {@Threei} frikin TWTR
01[10:26] {@Threei} Long Setup: CAT .90 break
01[10:26] {@Threei} If holds .80
01[10:26] {@Threei} change to .80 break
[10:26] {dino} ual drop
01[10:27] {@Threei} If holds .70
[10:27] {dino} sm l .30
01[10:27] {@Threei} change to .70 break
01[10:27] {@Threei} If holds .60
01[10:28] {@Threei} 1:1
01[10:30] {@Threei} 1:2
01[10:30] {@Threei} 1:3
01[10:30] {@Threei} out
[10:31] {JoebiWan} gj
[10:31] {dino} ual stop .96 -.34
[10:31] {dino} wtf
[10:32] {dptl} dal .80 break long?
[10:32] {ese} hmmmmm....i sure like the daily on ual though
[10:33] {dino} stopped me and bounced .20 in blink
01[10:33] {@Threei} .70 rather
01[10:33] {@Threei} with tight .65 stop
[10:34] {dino} things feel weak
[10:36] {dptl} nope out
[10:37] {ese} well after a 300 pt drop in the dow yesterday....
[10:38] {ese} mrkt has to correct 20%...it might as well just start and get it over with
[10:39] {nemo} typical liberal, telling the world what it has to do
[10:40] {ese} lol
[10:41] {dino} lol
01[10:41] {@Threei} Long Setup: TWTR .75 break
01[10:42] {@Threei} If holds .65
[10:43] {RonS} hey ese, how is you rfmd doing?
[10:43] {ese} wow...just listened to "Crazy" by Patsie Cline.......what an awesome voice......regret not being able to see her perform
01[10:44] {@Threei} valid
[10:44] {nemo} I can arrange that for you ese
[10:44] {nemo} Vad...send me a ticket
[10:44] {RonS} guessing no youtube in canada...
01[10:44] {@Threei} no go
[10:45] {ese} ...itunes....
[10:45] {ese} actually some of my favorite country comes from the "Nashville" TV show
[10:46] {RonS} omg
[10:46] {ese} right now
[10:47] {ese} all original material written fro the show and performed by those actual artists......no overdubbing....no lip sync......fabulous
[10:47] {ese} for the show
[10:47] {dino} cybr sm l .45
[10:48] {nemo} FB
[10:48] {RonS} so rfmd merges w/ triquint...and trades under qrvo or quorvo.... what could go wrong? look at the chart!
01[10:49] {@Threei} what the deuce
01[10:49] {@Threei} no news
[10:49] {nemo} no buyers
01[10:50] {@Threei} HAIN Financial blog makes cautious comments, draws parallel to HLF problems
[10:50] {nemo} big spy volume spike though
[10:50] {RonS} it's the name... the naming consultants must have been witches
[10:50] {nemo} they're being sued
01[10:51] {@Threei} Long Setup: VXX .50 break
[10:51] {RonS} who?
01[10:51] {@Threei} If holds ,40
[10:51] {ese} heres one of my favs by Lennon and Maisy....couple of Canadian kids at the Grand Ole Opry https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPTr5FO-ALg
[10:53] {dptl} dis .80 break long?
01[10:54] {@Threei} can't tell
[10:59] {nemo} see if spy makes another atempt at vwap
01[11:00] {@Threei} VXX iksplozhion
[11:00] {nemo} elevator down?
[11:01] {ese} hmmmm am liken the look of HCT as the spyders tank here.....it's movin nowhere
[11:02] {dino} out cyber .20 -.25
[11:07] {RonS} crude 48.44
[11:09] {dptl} long hal .21 stop .14
[11:11] {ese} iksplozhion.......ok....I give up.....whats it mean?
01[11:12] {@Threei} wow
01[11:12] {@Threei} I am deeply saddedned
[11:13] {ese} explosion?
01[11:13] {@Threei} years of tireless work promoting real English... in vain
[11:13] {ese} lol
[11:13] {nemo} he's a musician...wtf
01[11:14] {@Threei} and that's not even my best effort... could have used "eeqsplozheeon"
[11:16] {ese} ok now THAT!!!.....i would have understood
01[11:16] {@Threei} whew
[11:17] {nemo} sso short here
[11:17] {nemo} aapl too
[11:19] {nemo} beautiful bear flags
[11:19] {nemo} SPY bottomed S2
01[11:19] {@Threei} Short Setup: JPM .45 break
01[11:20] {@Threei} If holds .55
[11:20] {dptl} out hal
[11:21] {dino} adding bokf puts
[11:22] {RonS} bok 'em dino?
[11:23] {dino} :). big oil exposure loan book
[11:23] {dino} back min 30 or so
[11:23] {RonS} if bok goes bk, do they come back as rebok?
01[11:24] {@Threei} lol
[11:25] {RonS} crude 48.22 wow
01[11:25] {@Threei} the speed of decline is really something
01[11:27] {@Threei} 1:1
01[11:33] {@Threei} 1:2
[11:34] {dptl} got jp ty
01[11:36] {@Threei} yw
01[11:38] {@Threei} 1:3
01[11:39] {@Threei} my a$$ is out
[11:39] {JoebiWan} nice one vad
06[11:39] * @Threei weighing responces: "ty" or "I know?"
[11:40] {dptl} or sure dude...lol
01[11:40] {@Threei} nah, "sure dude" is a proper response to "ty"
[11:41] {dptl} oh...i see lol
01[11:41] {@Threei} don't mix your dudeisms
01[11:41] {@Threei} dudeness is art... take time to master
[11:42] {dptl} taking notes :)
01[11:42] {@Threei} and watch the movie once a week, as a religion
01[11:43] {@Threei} for the first 2-3 months of dudeness course
[11:43] {dptl} lol...ok
[11:45] {RonS} crude 47.89
01[11:49] {@Threei} really remarkable
01[11:49] {@Threei} putin is having heart attack
01[11:50] {@Threei} (one can hope)
[11:57] {nathan} hi gents
[11:57] {nathan} how was the morning? like yesterdays?
01[11:58] {@Threei} hi nathan
[11:58] {ese} gotta go...cya tomorow
01[11:58] {@Threei} have to upset you, very good
[11:58] {RonS} cya ese
01[11:58] {@Threei} take care ese
[11:58] {nathan} :-(
01[11:58] {@Threei} wow... he really got upset
[11:58] {nathan} happy for u
[11:58] {nathan} :-)
[12:02] {dptl} vlo.50 long?
01[12:04] {@Threei} nah
[12:05] {nathan} dal .80 long?
[12:06] {nathan} nah
[12:21] {@dino} tna l .15
01[12:21] {Threei} dcc dino
01[12:22] {@Threei} so far no confident reversal
[12:23] {dino} stop tna
[12:24] {dino} 16100 gap area oct
[12:24] {nathan} no reversal? seem to be a freefall...
[12:27] {dino} tna rinsed
01[12:28] {@Threei} yeah, IWM too
01[12:28] {@Threei} waiting for pulback
01[12:30] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .70 break
01[12:31] {@Threei} If holds .60
01[12:36] {@Threei} half out
01[12:36] {@Threei} 1:1
01[12:36] {@Threei} 1:2
01[12:38] {@Threei} 1:3
01[12:38] {@Threei} can do more
01[12:38] {@Threei} keeping last piece
[12:38] {dino} gj
01[12:38] {@Threei} ty
[12:38] {nathan} gj 3i
[12:38] {JoebiWan} nice dude
01[12:39] {@Threei} I know
[12:39] {dino} ual sm l .76
01[12:40] {@Threei} (coolness factor = 10)
01[12:40] {@Threei} 1:4
[12:40] {nemo} should get to .25ish
01[12:42] {@Threei} 1:5
01[12:43] {@Threei} ok, I am out
01[12:43] {@Threei} nailed that reversal
[12:47] {dptl} vlo .70 long?
01[12:49] {@Threei} if holds .64
[12:58] {dptl} finaly
[13:04] {dptl} out ..thats all it was
01[13:07] {@Threei} relax... scalping time at best
01[13:08] {@Threei} good day, don't spoil it by overpushing
[13:19] {RonS} Z knocked out
[13:26] {dptl} dal short?
[13:26] {dptl} and luv short looks like
[13:27] {dptl} or .20 long?
[13:27] {dptl} luv
01[13:27] {@Threei} I am confused
01[13:29] {@Threei} as soon as I don't get to answer one question, I already don't get to answer another
[13:30] {RonS} sounds like a trend...
[13:38] {dptl} do you like bhp short Vad? .30 break
01[13:38] {@Threei} nah
[13:41] {dptl} how about vlo .50 break short?
01[13:41] {@Threei} no
[13:41] {dptl} ok
[13:52] {nathan} c u tomorrow
[13:57] {RonS} crude 47.55
01[13:58] {@Threei} beautiful
01[14:00] {@Threei} (US) Boehner re-elected Speaker of the House by the membership, his third 2-year term
[14:01] {dptl} cop .60 long?
01[14:01] {@Threei} White House say Obama would veto Keystone pipeline bill
01[14:01] {@Threei} yes
[14:02] {cosmo} congress will overide
01[14:02] {@Threei} I don't think they have votes to override veto
01[14:02] {@Threei} do they?
[14:03] {cosmo} apparently the Reps are working on it
[14:03] {RonS} senate the key...so to speak...
[14:04] {dptl} stopped cop
[14:04] {cosmo} the resulting tar sand oil spills should really do the trick
[14:05] {nemo} PSX looks short
[14:05] {nemo} SLB
01[14:06] {@Threei} man... green propaganda really did number on you environmentally conscious...
01[14:06] {@Threei} tar sands are as cleen or as dirty as any other oil
[14:06] {cosmo} its the sloppiest technology avilable
[14:06] {nemo} not really, lots of sludge
01[14:06] {@Threei} who told you that?
[14:07] {cosmo} available
01[14:07] {@Threei} have you even been to areas that have been exploited, then restored?
[14:07] {nemo} petroleum engineer friend of mine...lots of scorched earth
01[14:07] {@Threei} know anything about latest technologies they use?
01[14:07] {@Threei} go there and see for yourself
[14:07] {RonS} never worked on nemo's girlfriends...
[14:08] {cosmo} I did environmental work for 30 years...
01[14:08] {@Threei} don't just eat the national geographic propaganda
[14:08] {nemo} ahhh, that explains it
[14:08] {nemo} I don't Vad
[14:11] {nemo} APA below .80 looks short
[14:12] {nemo} shouldn't get above .95
[14:13] {cosmo} hmm...Boehner again. What a tear jerker...
01[14:14] {@Threei} his suntan really gets on my nerves
[14:15] {cosmo} envy?
[14:15] {cosmo} nah
[14:15] {dptl} fb .85 long Vad?
01[14:16] {@Threei} late... but if pulls back, yes
[14:17] {dptl} didt get it
01[14:18] {@Threei} huh?
01[14:18] {@Threei} it spent enough time there to get it three times
[14:18] {dptl} dont ask
[14:18] {dptl} i dont know why
01[14:19] {@Threei} take a look, cosmo, and this is old one, there were many developments since then: http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericagies/2011/11/29/albertas-tar-sands-not-so-bad/
[14:19] {dptl} just couldnt press that button
01[14:19] {@Threei} 1:1
[14:20] {cosmo} k...reading now
01[14:21] {@Threei} notice two sources referred in there
01[14:21] {@Threei} they are most significant
01[14:21] {@Threei} 1:2
01[14:21] {@Threei} if I can find on the fly a few developments since then, I'll add
[14:23] {dptl} cop .20 long ?
01[14:24] {@Threei} yes
[14:25] {JoebiWan} out fb ty dp
[14:25] {dptl} sure
01[14:26] {@Threei} 1:3
01[14:28] {@Threei} 2013 story... couple big hollywood celebrities come to alberta with their anti-tar sands rhetorics
[14:28] {dptl} still valid cop
[14:28] {dptl} ?
01[14:28] {@Threei} yes
01[14:28] {@Threei} 1/4
01[14:29] {@Threei} provincial govt guys offer them tour over current work areas and some of old ones that wernt or go through remediation process
01[14:29] {@Threei} they take their invitation, go and see with their own eyes, talk to people that work on all this stuff
01[14:30] {@Threei} return totally stumped
01[14:30] {@Threei} 1:5
01[14:30] {@Threei} I am out
01[14:30] {@Threei} thanks dp
06[14:30] * @Threei slaps dptl around a bit with a large roll of cash
01[14:31] {@Threei} their final interview is banished from all the leftist/green sites
01[14:31] {@Threei} 1:6
[14:34] {cosmo} Sorry...but this time I'm with the celebrities. It has already been shown that its just to dangerous to trasport that sludge long distance through pipes that will break and thereby pollute the watersheds...permanately.
01[14:35] {@Threei} you are with them before or after they've seen what actually happens?
01[14:35] {@Threei} because you know... thise were two very different tales
01[14:36] {@Threei} one inspired by propaganda and another by reality
[14:36] {cosmo} what I'm think of will happen in the American (US) mid west.
[14:36] {dptl} gn all see you tomorrow
[14:36] {cosmo} Why can't Canada refine it and send out final product?
01[14:37] {@Threei} you are aware that USA official assessment is that it's safe to transport that oil by the pipeline, right?
01[14:38] {@Threei} by your own government
01[14:38] {@Threei} which at the moment is as left and green as it gets
[14:38] {cosmo} I am aware they say such things
[14:39] {cosmo} Political scientists are not true scientists
01[14:39] {@Threei} so you just elect to dismiss assessments that are not in line with your views :)
01[14:39] {@Threei} excuse me... but those are LEFT and GREEN guys
01[14:39] {@Threei} if anything, you'd expect their assessment to be on your side
01[14:40] {@Threei} yet they can't bring themselves to lie in official repprts
[14:40] {cosmo} I see what decisions would have been made 25 years ago. And back then it would definately be a no go for the industry.
01[14:41] {@Threei} let me throw in just one more thing to ponder
01[14:41] {@Threei} have you ever heard this expression:
01[14:42] {@Threei} recruit under false flag?
[14:44] {cosmo} The problem with tar sands crude is what happens during long distance transport, the nature of which will stress the pipes until they break, as has already been demonstrated a year ago along the Mississippi.
01[14:45] {@Threei} so... false flag?
01[14:45] {@Threei} or you are not interested?
[14:46] {cosmo} false flag oil?
[14:46] {cosmo} confused
01[14:46] {@Threei} recruit under false flag
[14:46] {cosmo} for oil?
01[14:46] {@Threei} do you know this expression and its meaning?
[14:47] {cosmo} nope, i guess
01[14:48] {@Threei} one of the way opf recruiting by secret sevice is not direct "work for us, betray your country"
01[14:48] {@Threei} it's based on financing and promoting certain movement that is politically and ecomically benefitting to the country of said service
01[14:49] {@Threei} recruits have no idea whose interests are behind the idea they are being involved in
01[14:49] {@Threei} they take it at face value
01[14:50] {@Threei} one of such examples is anti-fracking movement,
01[14:50] {@Threei} more broadly, many environmental movements,
[14:50] {cosmo} I'm an anti fracker for sure
01[14:50] {@Threei} all aimed at making oil and gas as expensive as possible
01[14:51] {@Threei} know which exactly intelligence is behind this?
[14:51] {cosmo} ugh...no
01[14:51] {@Threei} come on
01[14:51] {@Threei} who benefits?
[14:52] {cosmo} I'm just a scientist
[14:52] {cosmo} X?
01[14:52] {@Threei} which country is the most interested in stopping fracking, keystone, making oil price go up?
[14:52] {cosmo} Saudi
[14:52] {RonS} Arrests in New York dropped more than 50% last week after last month's cop killings
01[14:52] {@Threei} nope
[14:53] {cosmo} that's why they are killing it
[14:53] {cosmo} makeing oil cheap temporily
01[14:54] {@Threei} it's not saudis that prhanize and finance green movements
01[14:54] {@Threei} organize
[14:54] {cosmo} k
[14:57] {cosmo} sigh ...US?
01[14:58] {@Threei} oh come on
01[14:58] {@Threei} it' can't be that complicated :)
01[14:59] {@Threei} who is suffering the most right now from oil price drop?? :)
[14:59] {cosmo} venezuela
01[15:00] {@Threei} too small to really influence much
[15:00] {RonS} the horse refuses to go to the water...
01[15:00] {@Threei} whose state revenue are coming from oil over 50%
01[15:01] {@Threei} who secret service really has teeth, experience, brioad network?
01[15:01] {@Threei} whose
[15:01] {nemo} FSB
01[15:01] {@Threei} finally
[15:26] {JoebiWan} iwm?
01[15:26] {@Threei} watching
01[15:27] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .80 break
01[15:27] {@Threei} If holds .70
01[15:27] {@Threei} 1:1
[15:29] {JoebiWan} lets break 116
01[15:29] {@Threei} that's the idea
01[15:29] {@Threei} aggressive C&H entry
01[15:31] {@Threei} nah
01[15:31] {@Threei} just a scalp
01[15:36] {@Threei} OK guys, don't want to spoil great day
01[15:36] {@Threei} thank you, have a great evening
01[15:37] {@Threei} see you tomorrow
[15:37] {JoebiWan} cya vad
Session Time: Tue Jan 06 00:00:00 2015
[08:51] {dino} gm 3i
01[08:51] {@Threei} dino :)
[09:16] {dptl} gm
01[09:16] {@Threei} dp :)
[09:17] {RonS} hi guys
01[09:18] {@Threei} ron :)
01[09:27] {@Threei} Upside:
01[09:27] {@Threei} -NERV +60% (positive data showing analog of MN-301 compound improves symptoms of Parkinson's disease)
01[09:27] {@Threei} -RNN +19% (preclinical data for RX-3117 demonstrating effectiveness against Gemcitabine resistant human cancer cells)
01[09:27] {@Threei} -FRO +15% (continue to see solid demand for crude tankers - more tankers are being used for floating storage)
01[09:27] {@Threei} -EBIX +10% (resolution of IRS audit)
01[09:27] {@Threei} -NQ +10% (update on Management stock purchases)
01[09:27] {@Threei} -AOL +4.5% (VZ said to be interested in AOL's programmatic ad tech)
01[09:27] {@Threei} -TASR +2.2% (LAPD to deploy more than 3K TASER Smart Weapons)
01[09:27] {@Threei} Downside:
01[09:27] {@Threei} -CMC -6.2% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei} -XOOM -6% (determined to have been victim of criminal fraud, sees charge of $30.8M & raises Q4 Rev v. prior guidance)
01[09:27] {@Threei} -ARMH -2.2% (no news seen; put activity)
01[09:31] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .40 break
01[09:31] {@Threei} 1:1
01[09:31] {@Threei} lol
[09:31] {nemo} right
01[09:34] {@Threei} Long Setup: VXX .80 break
01[09:34] {@Threei} late
01[09:35] {@Threei} valid again
01[09:35] {@Threei} If holds .70
01[09:35] {@Threei} to .74
01[09:35] {@Threei} 1:1
01[09:36] {@Threei} again, same setup
01[09:36] {@Threei} If holds .75
01[09:36] {@Threei} Invalidated
01[09:37] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .60 break
01[09:37] {@Threei} If holds .50
[09:37] {dino} sap sm l .92
01[09:38] {@Threei} Long Setup: DAL .50 break
01[09:38] {@Threei} If holds .40
01[09:39] {@Threei} Invalidated
01[09:40] {@Threei} X Reportedly planning to lay off more than 600 workers (approx 1.5% of workforce) at Ohio steel plant, citing low oil prices - press -
[09:41] {dptl} vlo .70 break long?
[09:41] {cosmo} they must make rigs at that plant
01[09:42] {@Threei} VLO, not yet
[09:43] {dptl} ok
[09:44] {dino} pipes i think
[09:44] {nemo} VLO is a refiner
[09:44] {nemo} X makes alot of the pipes for drillers
[09:44] {dino} yes
[09:44] {nemo} not gonna' be much drilling for a while
01[09:45] {@Threei} *(US) DEC FINAL MARKIT SERVICES PMI: 53.3 V 53.7E
01[09:47] {@Threei} TWTR Hearing chatter Carl Icahn may be interested in Twitter
[09:47] {nemo} aapl took out yesterday's lows
01[09:47] {@Threei} Long Setup: FB .40 break
01[09:47] {@Threei} .50
[09:47] {ese} gm
01[09:47] {@Threei} If holds .40
01[09:48] {@Threei} ese :)
[09:48] {nemo} Stalinist
[09:49] {ese} out mack .87 +.12
01[09:49] {@Threei} no go
[09:49] {dino} gj
[09:49] {ese} L hct ..4029
01[09:51] {@Threei} Long Setup: TWTR .10 break
01[09:51] {@Threei} If holds 37
01[09:54] {@Threei} 1:1
01[09:54] {@Threei} looks 1:3-ready
01[09:55] {@Threei} nah, just a scalp
01[09:57] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .20 break
01[09:57] {@Threei} If holds .10
[09:57] {nemo} numbers @10
01[09:58] {@Threei} Invalidated
[09:59] {ese} otals Revenue HCT 2014 $194,367(t) 2013 $125,353(t) 2012 $35,738(t)
01[10:00] {@Threei} *(US) NOV FACTORY ORDERS: -0.7% V -0.5%E
[10:00] {ese} Rev stream powering hct
01[10:00] {@Threei} *(US) DEC ISM NON-MANUFACTURING COMPOSITE: 56.2 V 58.0E
[10:00] {ese} hasn't reported Dec for last year yet
[10:00] {ese} sell on news deal
[10:03] {ese} Free money hct sell stop break even .41
01[10:04] {@Threei} Long Setup: VXX .40 break
01[10:04] {@Threei} If holds .30
[10:05] {nemo} JPM
01[10:06] {@Threei} Long Setup: VXX .30 break
01[10:06] {@Threei} If holds .20
01[10:06] {@Threei} 1:1
01[10:06] {@Threei} Short Setup: JPM 60 break
01[10:07] {@Threei} If holds .10
01[10:07] {@Threei} 1:2
[10:08] {dino} sap to b/e
01[10:08] {@Threei} closed on a trail
01[10:08] {@Threei} 1:1 JPM
01[10:09] {@Threei} thanks for bringing it to attention, nemo
[10:09] {nemo} URI TRIP SPWR NXPI JPM IBM GS C URI AMGN DAL UAL GOOGL LNKD COF all weak
[10:10] {ese} hct stop to .50
[10:10] {nemo} only GG strong
[10:11] {ese} stopped .51 +.10
[10:11] {nemo} lotta' red on algo, not much price decline...foreshadowing a bounce or range day
[10:11] {nemo} could be bear trap...duh
[10:12] {nemo} IWM bounced 50 day
[10:13] {nemo} GG KSS APA HUM APC MNST now strong
[10:13] {ese} thats kinda what i'm thinkin nemo....bear trap
[10:14] {nemo} don't hurt yourself ese
[10:14] {ese} take small profit get the heck out
[10:14] {dino} sap to .22
[10:14] {ese} ha ha
[10:14] {nemo} no....by thinking
[10:16] {dino} to .32
[10:18] {dino} out sap .32, +.40
[10:18] {RonS} gj
[10:19] {dino} ty
01[10:22] {@Threei} frikin TWTR
01[10:26] {@Threei} Long Setup: CAT .90 break
01[10:26] {@Threei} If holds .80
01[10:26] {@Threei} change to .80 break
[10:26] {dino} ual drop
01[10:27] {@Threei} If holds .70
[10:27] {dino} sm l .30
01[10:27] {@Threei} change to .70 break
01[10:27] {@Threei} If holds .60
01[10:28] {@Threei} 1:1
01[10:30] {@Threei} 1:2
01[10:30] {@Threei} 1:3
01[10:30] {@Threei} out
[10:31] {JoebiWan} gj
[10:31] {dino} ual stop .96 -.34
[10:31] {dino} wtf
[10:32] {dptl} dal .80 break long?
[10:32] {ese} hmmmmm....i sure like the daily on ual though
[10:33] {dino} stopped me and bounced .20 in blink
01[10:33] {@Threei} .70 rather
01[10:33] {@Threei} with tight .65 stop
[10:34] {dino} things feel weak
[10:36] {dptl} nope out
[10:37] {ese} well after a 300 pt drop in the dow yesterday....
[10:38] {ese} mrkt has to correct 20%...it might as well just start and get it over with
[10:39] {nemo} typical liberal, telling the world what it has to do
[10:40] {ese} lol
[10:41] {dino} lol
01[10:41] {@Threei} Long Setup: TWTR .75 break
01[10:42] {@Threei} If holds .65
[10:43] {RonS} hey ese, how is you rfmd doing?
[10:43] {ese} wow...just listened to "Crazy" by Patsie Cline.......what an awesome voice......regret not being able to see her perform
01[10:44] {@Threei} valid
[10:44] {nemo} I can arrange that for you ese
[10:44] {nemo} Vad...send me a ticket
[10:44] {RonS} guessing no youtube in canada...
01[10:44] {@Threei} no go
[10:45] {ese} ...itunes....
[10:45] {ese} actually some of my favorite country comes from the "Nashville" TV show
[10:46] {RonS} omg
[10:46] {ese} right now
[10:47] {ese} all original material written fro the show and performed by those actual artists......no overdubbing....no lip sync......fabulous
[10:47] {ese} for the show
[10:47] {dino} cybr sm l .45
[10:48] {nemo} FB
[10:48] {RonS} so rfmd merges w/ triquint...and trades under qrvo or quorvo.... what could go wrong? look at the chart!
01[10:49] {@Threei} what the deuce
01[10:49] {@Threei} no news
[10:49] {nemo} no buyers
01[10:50] {@Threei} HAIN Financial blog makes cautious comments, draws parallel to HLF problems
[10:50] {nemo} big spy volume spike though
[10:50] {RonS} it's the name... the naming consultants must have been witches
[10:50] {nemo} they're being sued
01[10:51] {@Threei} Long Setup: VXX .50 break
[10:51] {RonS} who?
01[10:51] {@Threei} If holds ,40
[10:51] {ese} heres one of my favs by Lennon and Maisy....couple of Canadian kids at the Grand Ole Opry https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPTr5FO-ALg
[10:53] {dptl} dis .80 break long?
01[10:54] {@Threei} can't tell
[10:59] {nemo} see if spy makes another atempt at vwap
01[11:00] {@Threei} VXX iksplozhion
[11:00] {nemo} elevator down?
[11:01] {ese} hmmmm am liken the look of HCT as the spyders tank here.....it's movin nowhere
[11:02] {dino} out cyber .20 -.25
[11:07] {RonS} crude 48.44
[11:09] {dptl} long hal .21 stop .14
[11:11] {ese} iksplozhion.......ok....I give up.....whats it mean?
01[11:12] {@Threei} wow
01[11:12] {@Threei} I am deeply saddedned
[11:13] {ese} explosion?
01[11:13] {@Threei} years of tireless work promoting real English... in vain
[11:13] {ese} lol
[11:13] {nemo} he's a musician...wtf
01[11:14] {@Threei} and that's not even my best effort... could have used "eeqsplozheeon"
[11:16] {ese} ok now THAT!!!.....i would have understood
01[11:16] {@Threei} whew
[11:17] {nemo} sso short here
[11:17] {nemo} aapl too
[11:19] {nemo} beautiful bear flags
[11:19] {nemo} SPY bottomed S2
01[11:19] {@Threei} Short Setup: JPM .45 break
01[11:20] {@Threei} If holds .55
[11:20] {dptl} out hal
[11:21] {dino} adding bokf puts
[11:22] {RonS} bok 'em dino?
[11:23] {dino} :). big oil exposure loan book
[11:23] {dino} back min 30 or so
[11:23] {RonS} if bok goes bk, do they come back as rebok?
01[11:24] {@Threei} lol
[11:25] {RonS} crude 48.22 wow
01[11:25] {@Threei} the speed of decline is really something
01[11:27] {@Threei} 1:1
01[11:33] {@Threei} 1:2
[11:34] {dptl} got jp ty
01[11:36] {@Threei} yw
01[11:38] {@Threei} 1:3
01[11:39] {@Threei} my a$$ is out
[11:39] {JoebiWan} nice one vad
06[11:39] * @Threei weighing responces: "ty" or "I know?"
[11:40] {dptl} or sure dude...lol
01[11:40] {@Threei} nah, "sure dude" is a proper response to "ty"
[11:41] {dptl} oh...i see lol
01[11:41] {@Threei} don't mix your dudeisms
01[11:41] {@Threei} dudeness is art... take time to master
[11:42] {dptl} taking notes :)
01[11:42] {@Threei} and watch the movie once a week, as a religion
01[11:43] {@Threei} for the first 2-3 months of dudeness course
[11:43] {dptl} lol...ok
[11:45] {RonS} crude 47.89
01[11:49] {@Threei} really remarkable
01[11:49] {@Threei} putin is having heart attack
01[11:50] {@Threei} (one can hope)
[11:57] {nathan} hi gents
[11:57] {nathan} how was the morning? like yesterdays?
01[11:58] {@Threei} hi nathan
[11:58] {ese} gotta go...cya tomorow
01[11:58] {@Threei} have to upset you, very good
[11:58] {RonS} cya ese
01[11:58] {@Threei} take care ese
[11:58] {nathan} :-(
01[11:58] {@Threei} wow... he really got upset
[11:58] {nathan} happy for u
[11:58] {nathan} :-)
[12:02] {dptl} vlo.50 long?
01[12:04] {@Threei} nah
[12:05] {nathan} dal .80 long?
[12:06] {nathan} nah
[12:21] {@dino} tna l .15
01[12:21] {Threei} dcc dino
01[12:22] {@Threei} so far no confident reversal
[12:23] {dino} stop tna
[12:24] {dino} 16100 gap area oct
[12:24] {nathan} no reversal? seem to be a freefall...
[12:27] {dino} tna rinsed
01[12:28] {@Threei} yeah, IWM too
01[12:28] {@Threei} waiting for pulback
01[12:30] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .70 break
01[12:31] {@Threei} If holds .60
01[12:36] {@Threei} half out
01[12:36] {@Threei} 1:1
01[12:36] {@Threei} 1:2
01[12:38] {@Threei} 1:3
01[12:38] {@Threei} can do more
01[12:38] {@Threei} keeping last piece
[12:38] {dino} gj
01[12:38] {@Threei} ty
[12:38] {nathan} gj 3i
[12:38] {JoebiWan} nice dude
01[12:39] {@Threei} I know
[12:39] {dino} ual sm l .76
01[12:40] {@Threei} (coolness factor = 10)
01[12:40] {@Threei} 1:4
[12:40] {nemo} should get to .25ish
01[12:42] {@Threei} 1:5
01[12:43] {@Threei} ok, I am out
01[12:43] {@Threei} nailed that reversal
[12:47] {dptl} vlo .70 long?
01[12:49] {@Threei} if holds .64
[12:58] {dptl} finaly
[13:04] {dptl} out ..thats all it was
01[13:07] {@Threei} relax... scalping time at best
01[13:08] {@Threei} good day, don't spoil it by overpushing
[13:19] {RonS} Z knocked out
[13:26] {dptl} dal short?
[13:26] {dptl} and luv short looks like
[13:27] {dptl} or .20 long?
[13:27] {dptl} luv
01[13:27] {@Threei} I am confused
01[13:29] {@Threei} as soon as I don't get to answer one question, I already don't get to answer another
[13:30] {RonS} sounds like a trend...
[13:38] {dptl} do you like bhp short Vad? .30 break
01[13:38] {@Threei} nah
[13:41] {dptl} how about vlo .50 break short?
01[13:41] {@Threei} no
[13:41] {dptl} ok
[13:52] {nathan} c u tomorrow
[13:57] {RonS} crude 47.55
01[13:58] {@Threei} beautiful
01[14:00] {@Threei} (US) Boehner re-elected Speaker of the House by the membership, his third 2-year term
[14:01] {dptl} cop .60 long?
01[14:01] {@Threei} White House say Obama would veto Keystone pipeline bill
01[14:01] {@Threei} yes
[14:02] {cosmo} congress will overide
01[14:02] {@Threei} I don't think they have votes to override veto
01[14:02] {@Threei} do they?
[14:03] {cosmo} apparently the Reps are working on it
[14:03] {RonS} senate the key...so to speak...
[14:04] {dptl} stopped cop
[14:04] {cosmo} the resulting tar sand oil spills should really do the trick
[14:05] {nemo} PSX looks short
[14:05] {nemo} SLB
01[14:06] {@Threei} man... green propaganda really did number on you environmentally conscious...
01[14:06] {@Threei} tar sands are as cleen or as dirty as any other oil
[14:06] {cosmo} its the sloppiest technology avilable
[14:06] {nemo} not really, lots of sludge
01[14:06] {@Threei} who told you that?
[14:07] {cosmo} available
01[14:07] {@Threei} have you even been to areas that have been exploited, then restored?
[14:07] {nemo} petroleum engineer friend of mine...lots of scorched earth
01[14:07] {@Threei} know anything about latest technologies they use?
01[14:07] {@Threei} go there and see for yourself
[14:07] {RonS} never worked on nemo's girlfriends...
[14:08] {cosmo} I did environmental work for 30 years...
01[14:08] {@Threei} don't just eat the national geographic propaganda
[14:08] {nemo} ahhh, that explains it
[14:08] {nemo} I don't Vad
[14:11] {nemo} APA below .80 looks short
[14:12] {nemo} shouldn't get above .95
[14:13] {cosmo} hmm...Boehner again. What a tear jerker...
01[14:14] {@Threei} his suntan really gets on my nerves
[14:15] {cosmo} envy?
[14:15] {cosmo} nah
[14:15] {dptl} fb .85 long Vad?
01[14:16] {@Threei} late... but if pulls back, yes
[14:17] {dptl} didt get it
01[14:18] {@Threei} huh?
01[14:18] {@Threei} it spent enough time there to get it three times
[14:18] {dptl} dont ask
[14:18] {dptl} i dont know why
01[14:19] {@Threei} take a look, cosmo, and this is old one, there were many developments since then: http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericagies/2011/11/29/albertas-tar-sands-not-so-bad/
[14:19] {dptl} just couldnt press that button
01[14:19] {@Threei} 1:1
[14:20] {cosmo} k...reading now
01[14:21] {@Threei} notice two sources referred in there
01[14:21] {@Threei} they are most significant
01[14:21] {@Threei} 1:2
01[14:21] {@Threei} if I can find on the fly a few developments since then, I'll add
[14:23] {dptl} cop .20 long ?
01[14:24] {@Threei} yes
[14:25] {JoebiWan} out fb ty dp
[14:25] {dptl} sure
01[14:26] {@Threei} 1:3
01[14:28] {@Threei} 2013 story... couple big hollywood celebrities come to alberta with their anti-tar sands rhetorics
[14:28] {dptl} still valid cop
[14:28] {dptl} ?
01[14:28] {@Threei} yes
01[14:28] {@Threei} 1/4
01[14:29] {@Threei} provincial govt guys offer them tour over current work areas and some of old ones that wernt or go through remediation process
01[14:29] {@Threei} they take their invitation, go and see with their own eyes, talk to people that work on all this stuff
01[14:30] {@Threei} return totally stumped
01[14:30] {@Threei} 1:5
01[14:30] {@Threei} I am out
01[14:30] {@Threei} thanks dp
06[14:30] * @Threei slaps dptl around a bit with a large roll of cash
01[14:31] {@Threei} their final interview is banished from all the leftist/green sites
01[14:31] {@Threei} 1:6
[14:34] {cosmo} Sorry...but this time I'm with the celebrities. It has already been shown that its just to dangerous to trasport that sludge long distance through pipes that will break and thereby pollute the watersheds...permanately.
01[14:35] {@Threei} you are with them before or after they've seen what actually happens?
01[14:35] {@Threei} because you know... thise were two very different tales
01[14:36] {@Threei} one inspired by propaganda and another by reality
[14:36] {cosmo} what I'm think of will happen in the American (US) mid west.
[14:36] {dptl} gn all see you tomorrow
[14:36] {cosmo} Why can't Canada refine it and send out final product?
01[14:37] {@Threei} you are aware that USA official assessment is that it's safe to transport that oil by the pipeline, right?
01[14:38] {@Threei} by your own government
01[14:38] {@Threei} which at the moment is as left and green as it gets
[14:38] {cosmo} I am aware they say such things
[14:39] {cosmo} Political scientists are not true scientists
01[14:39] {@Threei} so you just elect to dismiss assessments that are not in line with your views :)
01[14:39] {@Threei} excuse me... but those are LEFT and GREEN guys
01[14:39] {@Threei} if anything, you'd expect their assessment to be on your side
01[14:40] {@Threei} yet they can't bring themselves to lie in official repprts
[14:40] {cosmo} I see what decisions would have been made 25 years ago. And back then it would definately be a no go for the industry.
01[14:41] {@Threei} let me throw in just one more thing to ponder
01[14:41] {@Threei} have you ever heard this expression:
01[14:42] {@Threei} recruit under false flag?
[14:44] {cosmo} The problem with tar sands crude is what happens during long distance transport, the nature of which will stress the pipes until they break, as has already been demonstrated a year ago along the Mississippi.
01[14:45] {@Threei} so... false flag?
01[14:45] {@Threei} or you are not interested?
[14:46] {cosmo} false flag oil?
[14:46] {cosmo} confused
01[14:46] {@Threei} recruit under false flag
[14:46] {cosmo} for oil?
01[14:46] {@Threei} do you know this expression and its meaning?
[14:47] {cosmo} nope, i guess
01[14:48] {@Threei} one of the way opf recruiting by secret sevice is not direct "work for us, betray your country"
01[14:48] {@Threei} it's based on financing and promoting certain movement that is politically and ecomically benefitting to the country of said service
01[14:49] {@Threei} recruits have no idea whose interests are behind the idea they are being involved in
01[14:49] {@Threei} they take it at face value
01[14:50] {@Threei} one of such examples is anti-fracking movement,
01[14:50] {@Threei} more broadly, many environmental movements,
[14:50] {cosmo} I'm an anti fracker for sure
01[14:50] {@Threei} all aimed at making oil and gas as expensive as possible
01[14:51] {@Threei} know which exactly intelligence is behind this?
[14:51] {cosmo} ugh...no
01[14:51] {@Threei} come on
01[14:51] {@Threei} who benefits?
[14:52] {cosmo} I'm just a scientist
[14:52] {cosmo} X?
01[14:52] {@Threei} which country is the most interested in stopping fracking, keystone, making oil price go up?
[14:52] {cosmo} Saudi
[14:52] {RonS} Arrests in New York dropped more than 50% last week after last month's cop killings
01[14:52] {@Threei} nope
[14:53] {cosmo} that's why they are killing it
[14:53] {cosmo} makeing oil cheap temporily
01[14:54] {@Threei} it's not saudis that prhanize and finance green movements
01[14:54] {@Threei} organize
[14:54] {cosmo} k
[14:57] {cosmo} sigh ...US?
01[14:58] {@Threei} oh come on
01[14:58] {@Threei} it' can't be that complicated :)
01[14:59] {@Threei} who is suffering the most right now from oil price drop?? :)
[14:59] {cosmo} venezuela
01[15:00] {@Threei} too small to really influence much
[15:00] {RonS} the horse refuses to go to the water...
01[15:00] {@Threei} whose state revenue are coming from oil over 50%
01[15:01] {@Threei} who secret service really has teeth, experience, brioad network?
01[15:01] {@Threei} whose
[15:01] {nemo} FSB
01[15:01] {@Threei} finally
[15:26] {JoebiWan} iwm?
01[15:26] {@Threei} watching
01[15:27] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .80 break
01[15:27] {@Threei} If holds .70
01[15:27] {@Threei} 1:1
[15:29] {JoebiWan} lets break 116
01[15:29] {@Threei} that's the idea
01[15:29] {@Threei} aggressive C&H entry
01[15:31] {@Threei} nah
01[15:31] {@Threei} just a scalp
01[15:36] {@Threei} OK guys, don't want to spoil great day
01[15:36] {@Threei} thank you, have a great evening
01[15:37] {@Threei} see you tomorrow
[15:37] {JoebiWan} cya vad
Monday, January 5, 2015
Jan 05 2015
Somewhat jerky day with a few too many rinses. Several nice wins, especially closer to end of day, mostly fixed the total but obviously gotta make some corrections tomorrow.
Session Time: Mon Jan 05 00:00:00 2015
01[09:08] {@Threei} [DAL] Reports Dec load factor 83.7% v 85.2% y/y; raises Q4 op margin to 12-13% (prior 11.5-12.5%) - PRASM -4.5% y/y
[09:11] {nathan} gm gents
01[09:12] {@Threei} nathan :)
[09:14] {RonS} greetings euro captives and looney lovers
[09:15] {nathan} :-)
01[09:15] {@Threei} ron :)
01[09:15] {@Threei} euro 9 year lows
01[09:15] {@Threei} loonie is welcome to follow the suit
[09:16] {RonS} gasoline $1.88 here
[09:18] {dptl} gm
[09:18] {RonS} unreal to me diesel $1.20 higher... for decades it was always cheaper
01[09:19] {@Threei} dp :)
01[09:19] {@Threei} it was always a tad higher here
01[09:20] {@Threei} not that much though
[09:22] {dino} gm
01[09:23] {@Threei} dino :)
[09:23] {nemo} had momentary power outage. pc reboots but logix says I'm still logged in. can't get into the system and nobody home at support
[09:24] {RonS} natty looking spiffy
[09:25] {pamsv} hi everyone
01[09:25] {@Threei} pam :)
01[09:26] {@Threei} - (EU) German Chancellor Merkel said to be prepared to allow Greece to leave the eurozone if it elected an anti-austerity govt
01[09:26] {@Threei} - (UK) PM Cameron: Prefers to move forward the planned referendum on UK's membership in EU from 2017 if possible
01[09:27] {@Threei} I think all these folks are short Euro
[09:27] {RonS} lol
01[09:28] {@Threei} Upside:
01[09:28] {@Threei} -CNAT +35% (will report top-line results from 3 ACLF and organ impairment clinical trials on Emricasan after market close on 1/8)
01[09:28] {@Threei} -CEMP +14% (Phase 3 clinical trial of solithromycin oral capsules (Solitaire-Oral) in the treatment of patients with community acquired bacterial pneumonia)
01[09:28] {@Threei} -KITE +5.6% (enters cancer immunotherapy agreement with AMGN)
01[09:28] {@Threei} -CERS +5.3% (Phase 3 trial of intercept red blood cells met primary & secondary endpoints)
01[09:28] {@Threei} -ISIS +5% (enters collaboration with Janssen for RNA Therapeutics for GI Autoimmune diseases)
01[09:28] {@Threei} -IMMU +5.4% (awarded fast track designation by FDA for Sacituzumab)
01[09:29] {@Threei} Downside:
01[09:29] {@Threei} -BCLI -15% (Phase 2a trial NurOwn data)
01[09:29] {@Threei} -RIO -3.4% (buyback of as much as A$5B as early as next month)
01[09:29] {@Threei} -FCX -2.3% (lower copper prices)
01[09:29] {@Threei} -SBUX -1.6% (negative broker commentary)
01[09:29] {@Threei} -FCAU -1.5% (Dec sales)
[09:30] {ese} gm
01[09:30] {@Threei} nice clkmb DAL
01[09:30] {@Threei} ese :)
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup: DAL .20 break
01[09:32] {@Threei} If holds .17
01[09:32] {@Threei} .10
01[09:32] {@Threei} change to .15 break
01[09:32] {@Threei} If holds .05
01[09:33] {@Threei} Invalidated
01[09:34] {@Threei} got away
01[09:35] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .35 break
01[09:35] {@Threei} If holds .25
01[09:37] {@Threei} no go
01[09:38] {@Threei} Short Setup: WMT .75 break
01[09:38] {@Threei} If holds .85
01[09:39] {@Threei} Invalidated
01[09:42] {@Threei} Long Setup: MCD .40 break
01[09:43] {@Threei} If holds .30
01[09:46] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .20 break
01[09:46] {@Threei} If holds .10
01[09:48] {@Threei} 1:1
01[09:51] {@Threei} Long Setup: VXX .50 break
01[09:51] {@Threei} If holds .40
01[09:53] {@Threei} stop to .44
01[09:53] {@Threei} out
01[09:54] {@Threei} rinse
[09:55] {dptl} rig .10 br short?
01[09:55] {@Threei} yup
01[09:56] {@Threei} frikin VXX
01[10:01] {@Threei} Short Setup: CAT .60 break
01[10:01] {@Threei} If holds .70
01[10:02] {@Threei} fast...
01[10:03] {@Threei} 1:1
01[10:04] {@Threei} 1:2
[10:04] {dino} uot slb puts from wednesdale, +.90/24%
01[10:05] {@Threei} 1:3
01[10:05] {@Threei} out
01[10:07] {@Threei} Long Setup: LUV .20 break
01[10:07] {@Threei} If holds .15
[10:10] {ese} spyders filling a gap looks like.....on my charts anyway
[10:11] {ese} 202.34 to 203.92
[10:11] {ese} ?
[10:11] {ese} anyone else seeing that
01[10:13] {@Threei} quite possible
01[10:13] {@Threei} meh LUV
[10:14] {nemo} bottom of gap is 201.79
[10:16] {RonS} hearing...Italian Banks being halted in Milan
[10:16] {ese} L mack .74
[10:17] {ese} all of them ron?
01[10:17] {@Threei} Long Setup: VXX .50 break
01[10:18] {@Threei} If holds .40
[10:18] {nathan} Me out for today. See u tomorrow at the usual lunch-time
01[10:18] {@Threei} 1:1
[10:18] {RonS} re-post ese ergo "hearing"...dunno
01[10:19] {@Threei} VXX target 1:5 if goes
01[10:22] {@Threei} nah, just scalp
[10:25] {dino} cybr sm l ave .27
01[10:32] {@Threei} now VXX goes, after rinsing balance
01[10:33] {@Threei} 1:1 RIG
[10:34] {ese} yep....my italian bank shs aren't trading......have 50 shs of BPMLY otc at 2.83 forgot all about them.....in my RB bank account forgot all about them
[10:35] {ese} bought them 4 years ago after the wife and I went to italy
[10:35] {ese} figured the italian economy couldn't get much worse
[10:36] {ese} Banca Popolare di Milano Scarl
[10:37] {ese} this is dumb...time to ditch em...I look at that acct once in a blue moon
01[10:38] {@Threei} well... let's say that investment decision wasn't made based on sound strategy
[10:38] {ese} lol
[10:39] {ese} since i got on with you vad...forgot I had that acct with Royal bank
01[10:41] {@Threei} I need to look into that... if I have the ability to make people forget about their bank accounts, maybe I can also make then transfer ownership of said accounts to me?...
01[10:41] {@Threei} 1:2 RIG
01[10:42] {@Threei} VXX at 1:4.... grrrrrrr
[10:42] {ese} I still have the acct its my regular one but there is an ianvestment side that I used to use...it's free....it's gotta be 2 years since i looked at it
[10:43] {ese} saw rons post and I went.....huh....oh ya......
01[10:51] {@Threei} Short Setup: USO .10 break
01[10:51] {@Threei} If holds .20
[10:52] {ese} anybody on this board live close to Memphis TN......am gonna be there April 17th to 26th
[10:58] {RonS} so, no volunteers?
[10:59] {RonS} nemo here?
01[10:59] {@Threei} he is buying tickets to memphis
[11:00] {RonS} hilarious
[11:02] {dptl} lvs .40 break long?
[11:02] {nemo} yeah, have a gunsmith friend down there who has a Class 7 license...he'll fabricate a suppressor for me
[11:03] {RonS} 3i, ese: tennessean nickname "volunteers"...
01[11:03] {@Threei} LVS no
[11:03] {nemo} the "vols"
[11:03] {RonS} nemo, the Lions really got jobbed by the refs...
01[11:04] {@Threei} USO stop to .16
[11:04] {nemo} maybe, but the thought of Suh having success galls me...he's such an asshole
[11:05] {RonS} no bigger than jerry jones...galls me that the League is doing all they can to put the "boys in the Super Bowl
[11:07] {RonS} 3i, American lexicon: "jobbed" from inside job...refers to a fix during a sporting event
[11:07] {nemo} Well, I'd rather the Pats face the Cowboys then Seattle
[11:09] {dptl} vlo .50 break short?
01[11:10] {@Threei} ron, I might even learn English some day... :)
01[11:10] {@Threei} VLO, yes
[11:11] {ese} trying to find a highlight to see what you guys are talking about
[11:14] {RonS} ese: a ref called this foul, that has beed on 999 times out of 1000 in the past five seasons...then picked up the flag and ruled "no foul"...critical momemtum changer in the game: http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/overturned-call-helps-cowboys-edge-lions/ar-BBhwlb1?ocid=iehp
[11:14] {RonS} been one
[11:20] {ese} wow
[11:20] {ese} that looks like interference if i ever saw it
[11:21] {ese} back to the guy...pushes him.....
01[11:21] {@Threei} cover half USO
[11:21] {ese} and what was the reson for reversing the call
[11:22] {RonS} the rule is that if the defender never turns his head to play the ball, it is interference...
[11:22] {ese} yup
01[11:22] {@Threei} 1:1
[11:22] {ese} why'd the ref reverse the call
[11:23] {RonS} imo, the League wanted the Cowboys to win... higher ratings, more money: it was a fix
[11:24] {ese} ouuuuu....tough to prove that one
[11:25] {RonS} the ref could not have been acting alone...the League reviews every call, and fires guys for crap like that
[11:28] {ese} you mean fines the refs
[11:28] {RonS} no, they lose their job...
01[11:28] {@Threei} good boy USO
[11:29] {ese} hmmmm...didn't know that......i guess he better have a good reason
[11:29] {RonS} yep, oil trying to bust $50
01[11:30] {@Threei} I can't even start listing the reasons it pleases me
[11:31] {JoebiWan} please do
01[11:31] {@Threei} taking teeth out of russian military being not the last of them
[11:31] {JoebiWan} ty vlo dp
[11:32] {dptl} yw
01[11:34] {@Threei} dp masters the craft of dudeness
[11:38] {dptl} out vlo
01[11:43] {@Threei} closed last piece of USO on a trail
[11:50] {RonS} GILD + CVS Health Corp. Gives Preferred Formulary Status to Gilead Sciences' Drugs Harvoni and Sovald
[11:52] {Raven} hello?
[11:52] {JoebiWan} hi
[11:53] {Raven} anybody else?
01[11:53] {Threei} no
01[11:53] {Threei} why?
[11:53] {Raven} stupid server belch
01[11:54] {Threei} Long Setup: IWM .55 break
01[11:54] {Threei} If holds .45
01[11:58] {Threei} no go
[11:59] {RonS} icahn working at gs now? Goldman says JPMorgan should break itself into pieces http://bloom.bg/1wQ7OAY
[11:59] {dptl} hal.05 long ?
[12:00] {dptl} late
[12:00] {dptl} that was wll actually
01[12:01] {Threei} lol
[12:01] {dptl} was looking at wll but thinking about hal..lol
01[12:03] {Threei} need to be a mind reader to communicate with you
01[12:03] {Threei} 'cause HAL .05 long is really late... by days {G}
[12:04] {dptl} lol yeah..
01[12:05] {Threei} DAX down 2.7%, the CAC off more than 3% and the FTSE down 1.7% after some weekend saber-rattling by German Chancellor Merkel, who said in a Der Spiegel interview that Europe needs to be prepared to let Greece leave the euro zone if it elects an anti-austerity government.
01[12:05] {Threei} WTI crude is poised to see a four handle, with the front-month contract trading around $50.20 or so as of writing, down 2.4% on the session.
01[12:06] {Threei} Note that traders say open interest for $40-$50 strike puts are rising, while $20-$30 puts for June 2015 have traded.
[12:07] {dptl} dal.50 long?
01[12:08] {Threei} can't tell
[12:08] {dptl} ok
[12:11] {dptl} how about dis .30 break short?
01[12:13] {Threei} no read
01[12:21] {Threei} Long Setup: DAL .40 break
01[12:21] {Threei} If holds .30
01[12:23] {Threei} grr
01[12:27] {Threei} Long Setup: VXX .40 break
01[12:28] {Threei} If holds .30
01[12:29] {Threei} 1:1
01[12:30] {Threei} 1:2
[12:31] {JoebiWan} ty vad
01[12:31] {Threei} yw
01[12:32] {Threei} 1:3
[12:39] {dptl} cop .60 break long?
01[12:39] {Threei} not really delighted by longs yet
[12:40] {dptl} ok
01[12:40] {Threei} ugh pam... missed 1:3
[12:42] {dino} dplo drop
01[12:42] {Threei} BABA Seeing call activity17K Mar 140 calls trade at the ask
[12:43] {dino} thats a heck of a ways away
01[12:51] {Threei} Long Setup: IWM .85 break
01[12:51] {Threei} If holds .75
01[12:53] {Threei} if this is double bottom, should get 1:3
01[12:54] {Threei} come on IWM, faster
[12:55] {dptl} where is it now ? iwm?at .84?
[12:55] {nemo} no algo all red
[12:56] {dptl} i think my quotes are slow
[12:56] {nemo} check your TTR
[12:56] {dptl} 79
01[12:56] {Threei} nah
01[12:57] {Threei} no bottom yet
[12:57] {dptl} when i saw post it was like 7c away
01[12:59] {Threei} Long Setup: IWM .75 break
01[12:59] {Threei} If holds .65
[13:00] {nemo} nah no bounce
01[13:00] {Threei} very close
[13:00] {nemo} they held the iwm up and sunk the spy, now they'll hold the spy and sink the iwm
01[13:01] {Threei} Long Setup: IWM .70 break
01[13:01] {Threei} If holds .60
01[13:02] {Threei} ok IWM, it's time
[13:03] {dptl} long wll .76
01[13:06] {Threei} sigh
01[13:09] {Threei} jeez
01[13:09] {Threei} switching to DKTK
[13:10] {nemo} trend down day
[13:10] {dptl} out wll ..just a scalp
[13:10] {nemo} knife catching trying to find bottoms today
[13:27] {nemo} we're very likely have a serious flush today
[13:27] {nemo} there is weekly pivot support on spy @.40ish
01[13:44] {Threei} (US) Senator Hoeven (R-ND): Expects President Obama to veto the keystone bill, which has 63 votes so far - Backers can't beat the veto without changes to the bill- Bill has 63 votes so far- White House Press Secretary Earnest: President Obama believes the Keystone pipeline would have little impact on gas prices, but no comment on whether the President would veto the bill.
01[14:03] {Threei} Long Setup: VXX .35 break
01[14:03] {Threei} If holds .25
01[14:06] {Threei} great, now it's IWM time
[14:06] {@nemo} I wouldn't be sure about that
01[14:12] {@Threei} rinse after rinse
[14:13] {nemo} yeah, but trend is down
01[14:13] {@Threei} VXX on pullback
01[14:13] {@Threei} ideally frpom under .40
[14:13] {nemo} .40 is support for spy, below that get's elevatorish down
01[14:14] {@Threei} come on VXX
01[14:15] {@Threei} return to pick us up
[14:15] {dptl} hal .60 break short?
01[14:16] {@Threei} nah
[14:16] {nemo} shouldn't drop below .30 if indexes going lower
01[14:16] {@Threei} Long Setup: VXX .45 break
01[14:17] {@Threei} If holds .35
01[14:17] {@Threei} nope
01[14:17] {@Threei} too hectic
[14:18] {nemo} I was wrong, it hit .29
[14:26] {dptl} wll .50 break short?
01[14:26] {@Threei} yes
[14:28] {dptl} too fast
[14:28] {nemo} spy and finnies looking a bit ominous here
[14:28] {nemo} but both close to convergent support
[14:30] {nemo} crude below 50
[14:31] {nathan} short DAL 48 break?
[14:32] {dptl} 72 degrees...21c..i am in the summer again...lol
[14:33] {nemo} shut up dp
[14:33] {dptl} lol
[14:34] {dino} cold here, 22 f
[14:34] {RonS} 48 here, feels like summer...
[14:34] {RonS} oil 49.91
[14:38] {RonS} uri dumpage
[14:38] {dino} taking cybr off -.32
[14:38] {dptl} i am gonna finish early....see ya tomorrow all
[14:38] {dino} all things considered, secuity holds well, cybr, feye, vdsi
01[14:44] {@Threei} Long Setup: VXX .60 break
[14:45] {dino} uri sm l .40
01[14:45] {@Threei} If holds .50
[14:50] {dino} uri stop .15, -.25
01[14:58] {@Threei} Long Setup: VXX .50 break
01[14:58] {@Threei} If holds .40
01[14:59] {@Threei} 1:1
01[15:01] {@Threei} 1:2
01[15:02] {@Threei} closed on a trail
[15:07] {dino} uri sm l .40
[15:07] {RonS} only thing i see uri is evercore downgrade... don't they make batteries?
[15:12] {dino} construction stuff
01[15:13] {@Threei} [URI] Evercore ISI Institutional Equities Cuts URI to Sell from Buy, price target: $87 - citing exposure to energy/commodities and construction contagion
[15:14] {RonS} must be ebola...
01[15:14] {@Threei} Long Setup: DAL .35 break
01[15:15] {@Threei} If holds .25
[15:15] {dino} out uri .03, +.63
01[15:15] {@Threei} wtg
[15:15] {dino} ty
01[15:21] {@Threei} Invalidated
[15:23] {dino} aal sm l .84
01[15:26] {@Threei} Long Setup: DAL .25 breakj
01[15:26] {@Threei} If holds .20
01[15:31] {@Threei} meh
01[15:38] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .20 break
01[15:38] {@Threei} If holds .10
01[15:38] {@Threei} last try
01[15:40] {@Threei} 1:1
01[15:40] {@Threei} frikin DAL
[15:40] {nemo} treacherous day
[15:40] {nemo} off to doctor c u
[15:41] {JoebiWan} cya nemo
01[15:49] {@Threei} 1:2
[15:52] {JoebiWan} out, ty
01[15:52] {@Threei} 1:3
01[15:52] {@Threei} yw
[15:52] {JoebiWan} almosted stopped for the day..
01[15:52] {@Threei} glad to finish with this
[15:53] {JoebiWan} finished about even
01[15:54] {@Threei} thank you all, have a good evening
01[15:54] {@Threei} see you tomorrow
[15:54] {JoebiWan} gn
[15:54] {dino} out aal .96, +.11
[15:57] {dino} gn
[15:57] {pamsv} see you - thanks
Session Time: Mon Jan 05 00:00:00 2015
01[09:08] {@Threei} [DAL] Reports Dec load factor 83.7% v 85.2% y/y; raises Q4 op margin to 12-13% (prior 11.5-12.5%) - PRASM -4.5% y/y
[09:11] {nathan} gm gents
01[09:12] {@Threei} nathan :)
[09:14] {RonS} greetings euro captives and looney lovers
[09:15] {nathan} :-)
01[09:15] {@Threei} ron :)
01[09:15] {@Threei} euro 9 year lows
01[09:15] {@Threei} loonie is welcome to follow the suit
[09:16] {RonS} gasoline $1.88 here
[09:18] {dptl} gm
[09:18] {RonS} unreal to me diesel $1.20 higher... for decades it was always cheaper
01[09:19] {@Threei} dp :)
01[09:19] {@Threei} it was always a tad higher here
01[09:20] {@Threei} not that much though
[09:22] {dino} gm
01[09:23] {@Threei} dino :)
[09:23] {nemo} had momentary power outage. pc reboots but logix says I'm still logged in. can't get into the system and nobody home at support
[09:24] {RonS} natty looking spiffy
[09:25] {pamsv} hi everyone
01[09:25] {@Threei} pam :)
01[09:26] {@Threei} - (EU) German Chancellor Merkel said to be prepared to allow Greece to leave the eurozone if it elected an anti-austerity govt
01[09:26] {@Threei} - (UK) PM Cameron: Prefers to move forward the planned referendum on UK's membership in EU from 2017 if possible
01[09:27] {@Threei} I think all these folks are short Euro
[09:27] {RonS} lol
01[09:28] {@Threei} Upside:
01[09:28] {@Threei} -CNAT +35% (will report top-line results from 3 ACLF and organ impairment clinical trials on Emricasan after market close on 1/8)
01[09:28] {@Threei} -CEMP +14% (Phase 3 clinical trial of solithromycin oral capsules (Solitaire-Oral) in the treatment of patients with community acquired bacterial pneumonia)
01[09:28] {@Threei} -KITE +5.6% (enters cancer immunotherapy agreement with AMGN)
01[09:28] {@Threei} -CERS +5.3% (Phase 3 trial of intercept red blood cells met primary & secondary endpoints)
01[09:28] {@Threei} -ISIS +5% (enters collaboration with Janssen for RNA Therapeutics for GI Autoimmune diseases)
01[09:28] {@Threei} -IMMU +5.4% (awarded fast track designation by FDA for Sacituzumab)
01[09:29] {@Threei} Downside:
01[09:29] {@Threei} -BCLI -15% (Phase 2a trial NurOwn data)
01[09:29] {@Threei} -RIO -3.4% (buyback of as much as A$5B as early as next month)
01[09:29] {@Threei} -FCX -2.3% (lower copper prices)
01[09:29] {@Threei} -SBUX -1.6% (negative broker commentary)
01[09:29] {@Threei} -FCAU -1.5% (Dec sales)
[09:30] {ese} gm
01[09:30] {@Threei} nice clkmb DAL
01[09:30] {@Threei} ese :)
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup: DAL .20 break
01[09:32] {@Threei} If holds .17
01[09:32] {@Threei} .10
01[09:32] {@Threei} change to .15 break
01[09:32] {@Threei} If holds .05
01[09:33] {@Threei} Invalidated
01[09:34] {@Threei} got away
01[09:35] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .35 break
01[09:35] {@Threei} If holds .25
01[09:37] {@Threei} no go
01[09:38] {@Threei} Short Setup: WMT .75 break
01[09:38] {@Threei} If holds .85
01[09:39] {@Threei} Invalidated
01[09:42] {@Threei} Long Setup: MCD .40 break
01[09:43] {@Threei} If holds .30
01[09:46] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .20 break
01[09:46] {@Threei} If holds .10
01[09:48] {@Threei} 1:1
01[09:51] {@Threei} Long Setup: VXX .50 break
01[09:51] {@Threei} If holds .40
01[09:53] {@Threei} stop to .44
01[09:53] {@Threei} out
01[09:54] {@Threei} rinse
[09:55] {dptl} rig .10 br short?
01[09:55] {@Threei} yup
01[09:56] {@Threei} frikin VXX
01[10:01] {@Threei} Short Setup: CAT .60 break
01[10:01] {@Threei} If holds .70
01[10:02] {@Threei} fast...
01[10:03] {@Threei} 1:1
01[10:04] {@Threei} 1:2
[10:04] {dino} uot slb puts from wednesdale, +.90/24%
01[10:05] {@Threei} 1:3
01[10:05] {@Threei} out
01[10:07] {@Threei} Long Setup: LUV .20 break
01[10:07] {@Threei} If holds .15
[10:10] {ese} spyders filling a gap looks like.....on my charts anyway
[10:11] {ese} 202.34 to 203.92
[10:11] {ese} ?
[10:11] {ese} anyone else seeing that
01[10:13] {@Threei} quite possible
01[10:13] {@Threei} meh LUV
[10:14] {nemo} bottom of gap is 201.79
[10:16] {RonS} hearing...Italian Banks being halted in Milan
[10:16] {ese} L mack .74
[10:17] {ese} all of them ron?
01[10:17] {@Threei} Long Setup: VXX .50 break
01[10:18] {@Threei} If holds .40
[10:18] {nathan} Me out for today. See u tomorrow at the usual lunch-time
01[10:18] {@Threei} 1:1
[10:18] {RonS} re-post ese ergo "hearing"...dunno
01[10:19] {@Threei} VXX target 1:5 if goes
01[10:22] {@Threei} nah, just scalp
[10:25] {dino} cybr sm l ave .27
01[10:32] {@Threei} now VXX goes, after rinsing balance
01[10:33] {@Threei} 1:1 RIG
[10:34] {ese} yep....my italian bank shs aren't trading......have 50 shs of BPMLY otc at 2.83 forgot all about them.....in my RB bank account forgot all about them
[10:35] {ese} bought them 4 years ago after the wife and I went to italy
[10:35] {ese} figured the italian economy couldn't get much worse
[10:36] {ese} Banca Popolare di Milano Scarl
[10:37] {ese} this is dumb...time to ditch em...I look at that acct once in a blue moon
01[10:38] {@Threei} well... let's say that investment decision wasn't made based on sound strategy
[10:38] {ese} lol
[10:39] {ese} since i got on with you vad...forgot I had that acct with Royal bank
01[10:41] {@Threei} I need to look into that... if I have the ability to make people forget about their bank accounts, maybe I can also make then transfer ownership of said accounts to me?...
01[10:41] {@Threei} 1:2 RIG
01[10:42] {@Threei} VXX at 1:4.... grrrrrrr
[10:42] {ese} I still have the acct its my regular one but there is an ianvestment side that I used to use...it's free....it's gotta be 2 years since i looked at it
[10:43] {ese} saw rons post and I went.....huh....oh ya......
01[10:51] {@Threei} Short Setup: USO .10 break
01[10:51] {@Threei} If holds .20
[10:52] {ese} anybody on this board live close to Memphis TN......am gonna be there April 17th to 26th
[10:58] {RonS} so, no volunteers?
[10:59] {RonS} nemo here?
01[10:59] {@Threei} he is buying tickets to memphis
[11:00] {RonS} hilarious
[11:02] {dptl} lvs .40 break long?
[11:02] {nemo} yeah, have a gunsmith friend down there who has a Class 7 license...he'll fabricate a suppressor for me
[11:03] {RonS} 3i, ese: tennessean nickname "volunteers"...
01[11:03] {@Threei} LVS no
[11:03] {nemo} the "vols"
[11:03] {RonS} nemo, the Lions really got jobbed by the refs...
01[11:04] {@Threei} USO stop to .16
[11:04] {nemo} maybe, but the thought of Suh having success galls me...he's such an asshole
[11:05] {RonS} no bigger than jerry jones...galls me that the League is doing all they can to put the "boys in the Super Bowl
[11:07] {RonS} 3i, American lexicon: "jobbed" from inside job...refers to a fix during a sporting event
[11:07] {nemo} Well, I'd rather the Pats face the Cowboys then Seattle
[11:09] {dptl} vlo .50 break short?
01[11:10] {@Threei} ron, I might even learn English some day... :)
01[11:10] {@Threei} VLO, yes
[11:11] {ese} trying to find a highlight to see what you guys are talking about
[11:14] {RonS} ese: a ref called this foul, that has beed on 999 times out of 1000 in the past five seasons...then picked up the flag and ruled "no foul"...critical momemtum changer in the game: http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/overturned-call-helps-cowboys-edge-lions/ar-BBhwlb1?ocid=iehp
[11:14] {RonS} been one
[11:20] {ese} wow
[11:20] {ese} that looks like interference if i ever saw it
[11:21] {ese} back to the guy...pushes him.....
01[11:21] {@Threei} cover half USO
[11:21] {ese} and what was the reson for reversing the call
[11:22] {RonS} the rule is that if the defender never turns his head to play the ball, it is interference...
[11:22] {ese} yup
01[11:22] {@Threei} 1:1
[11:22] {ese} why'd the ref reverse the call
[11:23] {RonS} imo, the League wanted the Cowboys to win... higher ratings, more money: it was a fix
[11:24] {ese} ouuuuu....tough to prove that one
[11:25] {RonS} the ref could not have been acting alone...the League reviews every call, and fires guys for crap like that
[11:28] {ese} you mean fines the refs
[11:28] {RonS} no, they lose their job...
01[11:28] {@Threei} good boy USO
[11:29] {ese} hmmmm...didn't know that......i guess he better have a good reason
[11:29] {RonS} yep, oil trying to bust $50
01[11:30] {@Threei} I can't even start listing the reasons it pleases me
[11:31] {JoebiWan} please do
01[11:31] {@Threei} taking teeth out of russian military being not the last of them
[11:31] {JoebiWan} ty vlo dp
[11:32] {dptl} yw
01[11:34] {@Threei} dp masters the craft of dudeness
[11:38] {dptl} out vlo
01[11:43] {@Threei} closed last piece of USO on a trail
[11:50] {RonS} GILD + CVS Health Corp. Gives Preferred Formulary Status to Gilead Sciences' Drugs Harvoni and Sovald
[11:52] {Raven} hello?
[11:52] {JoebiWan} hi
[11:53] {Raven} anybody else?
01[11:53] {Threei} no
01[11:53] {Threei} why?
[11:53] {Raven} stupid server belch
01[11:54] {Threei} Long Setup: IWM .55 break
01[11:54] {Threei} If holds .45
01[11:58] {Threei} no go
[11:59] {RonS} icahn working at gs now? Goldman says JPMorgan should break itself into pieces http://bloom.bg/1wQ7OAY
[11:59] {dptl} hal.05 long ?
[12:00] {dptl} late
[12:00] {dptl} that was wll actually
01[12:01] {Threei} lol
[12:01] {dptl} was looking at wll but thinking about hal..lol
01[12:03] {Threei} need to be a mind reader to communicate with you
01[12:03] {Threei} 'cause HAL .05 long is really late... by days {G}
[12:04] {dptl} lol yeah..
01[12:05] {Threei} DAX down 2.7%, the CAC off more than 3% and the FTSE down 1.7% after some weekend saber-rattling by German Chancellor Merkel, who said in a Der Spiegel interview that Europe needs to be prepared to let Greece leave the euro zone if it elects an anti-austerity government.
01[12:05] {Threei} WTI crude is poised to see a four handle, with the front-month contract trading around $50.20 or so as of writing, down 2.4% on the session.
01[12:06] {Threei} Note that traders say open interest for $40-$50 strike puts are rising, while $20-$30 puts for June 2015 have traded.
[12:07] {dptl} dal.50 long?
01[12:08] {Threei} can't tell
[12:08] {dptl} ok
[12:11] {dptl} how about dis .30 break short?
01[12:13] {Threei} no read
01[12:21] {Threei} Long Setup: DAL .40 break
01[12:21] {Threei} If holds .30
01[12:23] {Threei} grr
01[12:27] {Threei} Long Setup: VXX .40 break
01[12:28] {Threei} If holds .30
01[12:29] {Threei} 1:1
01[12:30] {Threei} 1:2
[12:31] {JoebiWan} ty vad
01[12:31] {Threei} yw
01[12:32] {Threei} 1:3
[12:39] {dptl} cop .60 break long?
01[12:39] {Threei} not really delighted by longs yet
[12:40] {dptl} ok
01[12:40] {Threei} ugh pam... missed 1:3
[12:42] {dino} dplo drop
01[12:42] {Threei} BABA Seeing call activity17K Mar 140 calls trade at the ask
[12:43] {dino} thats a heck of a ways away
01[12:51] {Threei} Long Setup: IWM .85 break
01[12:51] {Threei} If holds .75
01[12:53] {Threei} if this is double bottom, should get 1:3
01[12:54] {Threei} come on IWM, faster
[12:55] {dptl} where is it now ? iwm?at .84?
[12:55] {nemo} no algo all red
[12:56] {dptl} i think my quotes are slow
[12:56] {nemo} check your TTR
[12:56] {dptl} 79
01[12:56] {Threei} nah
01[12:57] {Threei} no bottom yet
[12:57] {dptl} when i saw post it was like 7c away
01[12:59] {Threei} Long Setup: IWM .75 break
01[12:59] {Threei} If holds .65
[13:00] {nemo} nah no bounce
01[13:00] {Threei} very close
[13:00] {nemo} they held the iwm up and sunk the spy, now they'll hold the spy and sink the iwm
01[13:01] {Threei} Long Setup: IWM .70 break
01[13:01] {Threei} If holds .60
01[13:02] {Threei} ok IWM, it's time
[13:03] {dptl} long wll .76
01[13:06] {Threei} sigh
01[13:09] {Threei} jeez
01[13:09] {Threei} switching to DKTK
[13:10] {nemo} trend down day
[13:10] {dptl} out wll ..just a scalp
[13:10] {nemo} knife catching trying to find bottoms today
[13:27] {nemo} we're very likely have a serious flush today
[13:27] {nemo} there is weekly pivot support on spy @.40ish
01[13:44] {Threei} (US) Senator Hoeven (R-ND): Expects President Obama to veto the keystone bill, which has 63 votes so far - Backers can't beat the veto without changes to the bill- Bill has 63 votes so far- White House Press Secretary Earnest: President Obama believes the Keystone pipeline would have little impact on gas prices, but no comment on whether the President would veto the bill.
01[14:03] {Threei} Long Setup: VXX .35 break
01[14:03] {Threei} If holds .25
01[14:06] {Threei} great, now it's IWM time
[14:06] {@nemo} I wouldn't be sure about that
01[14:12] {@Threei} rinse after rinse
[14:13] {nemo} yeah, but trend is down
01[14:13] {@Threei} VXX on pullback
01[14:13] {@Threei} ideally frpom under .40
[14:13] {nemo} .40 is support for spy, below that get's elevatorish down
01[14:14] {@Threei} come on VXX
01[14:15] {@Threei} return to pick us up
[14:15] {dptl} hal .60 break short?
01[14:16] {@Threei} nah
[14:16] {nemo} shouldn't drop below .30 if indexes going lower
01[14:16] {@Threei} Long Setup: VXX .45 break
01[14:17] {@Threei} If holds .35
01[14:17] {@Threei} nope
01[14:17] {@Threei} too hectic
[14:18] {nemo} I was wrong, it hit .29
[14:26] {dptl} wll .50 break short?
01[14:26] {@Threei} yes
[14:28] {dptl} too fast
[14:28] {nemo} spy and finnies looking a bit ominous here
[14:28] {nemo} but both close to convergent support
[14:30] {nemo} crude below 50
[14:31] {nathan} short DAL 48 break?
[14:32] {dptl} 72 degrees...21c..i am in the summer again...lol
[14:33] {nemo} shut up dp
[14:33] {dptl} lol
[14:34] {dino} cold here, 22 f
[14:34] {RonS} 48 here, feels like summer...
[14:34] {RonS} oil 49.91
[14:38] {RonS} uri dumpage
[14:38] {dino} taking cybr off -.32
[14:38] {dptl} i am gonna finish early....see ya tomorrow all
[14:38] {dino} all things considered, secuity holds well, cybr, feye, vdsi
01[14:44] {@Threei} Long Setup: VXX .60 break
[14:45] {dino} uri sm l .40
01[14:45] {@Threei} If holds .50
[14:50] {dino} uri stop .15, -.25
01[14:58] {@Threei} Long Setup: VXX .50 break
01[14:58] {@Threei} If holds .40
01[14:59] {@Threei} 1:1
01[15:01] {@Threei} 1:2
01[15:02] {@Threei} closed on a trail
[15:07] {dino} uri sm l .40
[15:07] {RonS} only thing i see uri is evercore downgrade... don't they make batteries?
[15:12] {dino} construction stuff
01[15:13] {@Threei} [URI] Evercore ISI Institutional Equities Cuts URI to Sell from Buy, price target: $87 - citing exposure to energy/commodities and construction contagion
[15:14] {RonS} must be ebola...
01[15:14] {@Threei} Long Setup: DAL .35 break
01[15:15] {@Threei} If holds .25
[15:15] {dino} out uri .03, +.63
01[15:15] {@Threei} wtg
[15:15] {dino} ty
01[15:21] {@Threei} Invalidated
[15:23] {dino} aal sm l .84
01[15:26] {@Threei} Long Setup: DAL .25 breakj
01[15:26] {@Threei} If holds .20
01[15:31] {@Threei} meh
01[15:38] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .20 break
01[15:38] {@Threei} If holds .10
01[15:38] {@Threei} last try
01[15:40] {@Threei} 1:1
01[15:40] {@Threei} frikin DAL
[15:40] {nemo} treacherous day
[15:40] {nemo} off to doctor c u
[15:41] {JoebiWan} cya nemo
01[15:49] {@Threei} 1:2
[15:52] {JoebiWan} out, ty
01[15:52] {@Threei} 1:3
01[15:52] {@Threei} yw
[15:52] {JoebiWan} almosted stopped for the day..
01[15:52] {@Threei} glad to finish with this
[15:53] {JoebiWan} finished about even
01[15:54] {@Threei} thank you all, have a good evening
01[15:54] {@Threei} see you tomorrow
[15:54] {JoebiWan} gn
[15:54] {dino} out aal .96, +.11
[15:57] {dino} gn
[15:57] {pamsv} see you - thanks
Friday, January 2, 2015
Market Week Wrap-up
TradeTheNews.com: :
New Year's Blues
Fri, 02 Jan 2015 16:04 PM EST
Trading volumes were very light in the New Year's holiday week. Global equity markets dipped during the final session of 2014 and then fell lower on the first day of trading in the New Year as weak data and jitters about upcoming Fed and ECB action drove risk appetite into the deep freeze. Manufacturing industry data from around the globe out this week was not especially positive, adding to the tepid atmosphere.
Looking back, 2014 was very good for major US equities: the S&P 500 rose 11% to 2,059, its sixth year of positive returns and its third straight year of double-digit gains. The DJIA added 7.5% to 17,823 after slipping below 18,000 on the final two days of trading, and the Nasdaq advanced 13%. Small-cap stocks were not quite as solid: the Russell 2000 climbed 3.5%. Europe's EuroStoxx 600 Index gained 3.9% on the year and Germany's DAX Index added 2.7%, although France's CAC40 dropped 1.2%. Chinese equities had their best performance since 2009 even as overall emerging-market shares posted the first back-to-back annual loss in 12 years.
US housing market data out this week remained tepid. The S&P/CaseShiller October home price survey showed that real estate price gains slowing a bit. The y/y gain dropped to +4.5% from +4.8% in September. Yale economist Shiller commented that the housing market is fragile and is still reliant on low interest rates. The November pending home sales m/m figure beat expectations and returned to positive territory after October's contraction. The December Chicago Purchasing Manager survey and the ISM Manufacturing Index missed expectations, hitting their lowest levels since mid-2014.
Oil prices sagged to fresh five-year lows, with front-month WTI dropping from the mid-$55 area on Monday as low as $52.50 on Wednesday. The contract bounced off the lows but by Friday came very close to the $52 level. Brent crude bottomed around $55.50 but closed out the week around $56. Interestingly the oil equities themselves continue hold up better. The OIH and XLE remain above their mid-December lows which expedited the latest move to fresh all-time highs for US stock indices.
Comments from ECB President Draghi and ECB Chief Economist Praet left little doubt that quantitative easing is imminent. On Tuesday, Praet said euro zone inflation was below 0% and would stay there for an extended period. The official December euro zone CPI reading is out next week could cement expectations for European QE after the November reading matched a 4-year low at 0.3%. Praet argued that sovereign bonds were the only asset class with enough volume to make an impact on the inflation issue. Draghi was less sanguine, but highlighted that the risk of deflation in euro zone cannot be ruled out. Unsurprisingly, various German figures refuted these assertions. Germany's 'wisemen' said there was no deflation while the CDU Deputy party Chairman Fuchs said the euro zone was no longer obligated to rescue Greece as they were no longer systemically important. Between imminent QE and the Greek situation, EUR/USD gravitated toward the psychological 1.2000 level (though did not break through) and the 10-year bund yield fell to fresh all-time lows of 0.49% while the 5-year now offers a negative yield for the first time ever.
The Greek political crisis helped push yield spreads to fresh record levels as the Greek 10-year yield approached 10% even as most other EU government bonds are at or near record low yields. After lawmakers rejected the government's candidate for president last weekend, Greek PM Samaras was forced to dissolve the parliament and call a general election on January 25th. Polls showed Syriza, the leftist, anti-bailout opposition party of Alexis Tsipras, to be the frontrunner in the race. Tsipras has promised to get a better deal from the Troika on Greece's bailout payments. The EU has sternly warned that any new government must abide by prior obligations, suggesting that in the event of a Syriza victory irreconcilable differences could lead to a "Grexit."
China's official December Manufacturing PMI survey hit its lowest level since mid-2013, even as the non-manufacturing survey recovered to a four-month high. Manufacturing PMI components New Orders and Output were at 2014 lows, and inventories and employment were at 10-month lows. November industrial profits data fell by 4.2%, the largest y/y decline in 27 months. The PBoC published a report confirming that the government would change the rules on loan-to-deposit ratio calculations in 2015 to inject further liquidity into the system. The new rules would allow the inclusion of savings held by banks for non-deposit-taking financial institutions in banks' deposits, expanding the ratios and boosting lending capacity.
In Japan, Prime Minister Abe continues to fine-tune his efforts to extinguish deflation and jumpstart the economy. The government said it is planning a $29B (¥3.5T) fiscal stimulus package, featuring subsidies for households to help stimulate consumption along with more relief for earthquake-hit areas. The plan is estimated to add 0.7% to 2015 GDP growth. The government also announced it would aim to cut the corporate tax rate to below 30% over the next several years. The FY15/16 tax reform will cut the corporate rate to 32.1% from 34.6%.
Fri, 02 Jan 2015 16:04 PM EST
Trading volumes were very light in the New Year's holiday week. Global equity markets dipped during the final session of 2014 and then fell lower on the first day of trading in the New Year as weak data and jitters about upcoming Fed and ECB action drove risk appetite into the deep freeze. Manufacturing industry data from around the globe out this week was not especially positive, adding to the tepid atmosphere.
Looking back, 2014 was very good for major US equities: the S&P 500 rose 11% to 2,059, its sixth year of positive returns and its third straight year of double-digit gains. The DJIA added 7.5% to 17,823 after slipping below 18,000 on the final two days of trading, and the Nasdaq advanced 13%. Small-cap stocks were not quite as solid: the Russell 2000 climbed 3.5%. Europe's EuroStoxx 600 Index gained 3.9% on the year and Germany's DAX Index added 2.7%, although France's CAC40 dropped 1.2%. Chinese equities had their best performance since 2009 even as overall emerging-market shares posted the first back-to-back annual loss in 12 years.
US housing market data out this week remained tepid. The S&P/CaseShiller October home price survey showed that real estate price gains slowing a bit. The y/y gain dropped to +4.5% from +4.8% in September. Yale economist Shiller commented that the housing market is fragile and is still reliant on low interest rates. The November pending home sales m/m figure beat expectations and returned to positive territory after October's contraction. The December Chicago Purchasing Manager survey and the ISM Manufacturing Index missed expectations, hitting their lowest levels since mid-2014.
Oil prices sagged to fresh five-year lows, with front-month WTI dropping from the mid-$55 area on Monday as low as $52.50 on Wednesday. The contract bounced off the lows but by Friday came very close to the $52 level. Brent crude bottomed around $55.50 but closed out the week around $56. Interestingly the oil equities themselves continue hold up better. The OIH and XLE remain above their mid-December lows which expedited the latest move to fresh all-time highs for US stock indices.
Comments from ECB President Draghi and ECB Chief Economist Praet left little doubt that quantitative easing is imminent. On Tuesday, Praet said euro zone inflation was below 0% and would stay there for an extended period. The official December euro zone CPI reading is out next week could cement expectations for European QE after the November reading matched a 4-year low at 0.3%. Praet argued that sovereign bonds were the only asset class with enough volume to make an impact on the inflation issue. Draghi was less sanguine, but highlighted that the risk of deflation in euro zone cannot be ruled out. Unsurprisingly, various German figures refuted these assertions. Germany's 'wisemen' said there was no deflation while the CDU Deputy party Chairman Fuchs said the euro zone was no longer obligated to rescue Greece as they were no longer systemically important. Between imminent QE and the Greek situation, EUR/USD gravitated toward the psychological 1.2000 level (though did not break through) and the 10-year bund yield fell to fresh all-time lows of 0.49% while the 5-year now offers a negative yield for the first time ever.
The Greek political crisis helped push yield spreads to fresh record levels as the Greek 10-year yield approached 10% even as most other EU government bonds are at or near record low yields. After lawmakers rejected the government's candidate for president last weekend, Greek PM Samaras was forced to dissolve the parliament and call a general election on January 25th. Polls showed Syriza, the leftist, anti-bailout opposition party of Alexis Tsipras, to be the frontrunner in the race. Tsipras has promised to get a better deal from the Troika on Greece's bailout payments. The EU has sternly warned that any new government must abide by prior obligations, suggesting that in the event of a Syriza victory irreconcilable differences could lead to a "Grexit."
China's official December Manufacturing PMI survey hit its lowest level since mid-2013, even as the non-manufacturing survey recovered to a four-month high. Manufacturing PMI components New Orders and Output were at 2014 lows, and inventories and employment were at 10-month lows. November industrial profits data fell by 4.2%, the largest y/y decline in 27 months. The PBoC published a report confirming that the government would change the rules on loan-to-deposit ratio calculations in 2015 to inject further liquidity into the system. The new rules would allow the inclusion of savings held by banks for non-deposit-taking financial institutions in banks' deposits, expanding the ratios and boosting lending capacity.
In Japan, Prime Minister Abe continues to fine-tune his efforts to extinguish deflation and jumpstart the economy. The government said it is planning a $29B (¥3.5T) fiscal stimulus package, featuring subsidies for households to help stimulate consumption along with more relief for earthquake-hit areas. The plan is estimated to add 0.7% to 2015 GDP growth. The government also announced it would aim to cut the corporate tax rate to below 30% over the next several years. The FY15/16 tax reform will cut the corporate rate to 32.1% from 34.6%.
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