Friday, March 20, 2015

Market Week Wrap-up

TradeTheNews.comWeekly Market Update: Fed's patience is gone but not forgotten
Fri, 20 Mar 2015 16:05 PM EST

As expected, the FOMC altered its forward guidance this week, replacing the "patient" line with broad language that emphasized its core policy principle of remaining data dependent. Fed Chair Yellen couched the change in pretty stark terms: "just because we removed the word patient from the statement doesn't mean we're going to be impatient." The FOMC also lowered its economic forecast for 2015-16, hinting that the data might not be as rosy as required for a normalization of interest rates. Nearly every global asset class saw big moves on the decision: equities soared, the euro saw an astonishing move across five big-figures (EUR/USD made a round trip from 1.0580 to 1.1050 and back to 1.0650, the second broadest one-day range seen since 2000), and the 10-year UST yield dropped as low as 1.90% and remained below 2% through the end of the week. By Friday, the Shanghai Composite posted a fresh multi-year high, the FTSE index surged above 7,000 for the first time ever, while the Nasdaq approached its all-time closing high of 5048 set in March 2000. For the week, the DJIA added 2.1%, the S&P500 rose 2.7% and the Nasdaq gained 3.2%.

The FOMC replaced patient with a statement that policy tightening would be appropriate when the Fed "has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term." Maybe more importantly though the updated economic forecasts revealed officials now foresee the rising US Dollar serving as a significant headwind to exports and thus a potential drag on growth as well as inflation. Officials also adjusted their outlook for remaining slack in the labor market; forecasts for the long-run level of the unemployment rate shifted down a couple of tenths of a percent. Yellen affirmed that every meeting starting in June will be a "live" meeting for considering rate lift off, but indicated a number of reservations about wage growth, low inflation, and the strong dollar, leaving most analysts saying she was more dovish than they had hoped.

The impact of the brutal winter weather in the US showed up in housing data this week. February housing starts dropped 17% from January to an annualize rate of 897K, while building permits hit a nine-month low of 1.09M. Permits grew slightly over the January rate, although the bulk of permits were for multi-family units, with continued softness in single-family permits. Homebuilder confidence dipped lower than expected in March. The NAHB index of homebuilder sentiment fell for the third straight month and missed expectations. Despite the data homebuilders KB Home and Lennar reported solid Q1 results and suggested the spring selling season is getting off to a solid start.

Greece and its European patrons remain locked in contentious negotiations. Greece is at the very edge of solvency, a position the Europeans appear to be using for maximum advantage to squeeze more reforms out of Athens and beat back Syriza's electoral pledges to end austerity. Right now the consensus is that Greece has enough funds to pay debt coming due in March but may run out of cash in April, though it may unlock a few billion more euros at next week's Eurogroup meeting. On Friday, German press sources were reporting that German Finance Minister Schaeuble expected Greece to be ultimately forced out of the Eurozone even as Chancellor Merkel still wanted to keep Greece in the monetary union for political reasons.

On Monday Russian President Putin appeared at a press conference with Kyrgyz President Atambayev, breaking an 11-day absence from public life. During the period, wild conspiracy theories circulated in media and the internet about a possible power struggle among the various political factions in the Russian leadership, with some analysts suggesting that a slow-motion coup was underway. Responding briefly to the chatter, Putin noted "without gossip, life would be boring."

Iran and the P5+1 group appeared to edge closer to a nuclear deal. Diplomats suggest the two sides should iron out most of their remaining differences over weekend, but another round of talks likely will be needed to seal any deal. Despite the prospect of Iranian oil spilling back onto the market, Brent moved higher this week, from lows around $55 as high as $56.80 on dollar weakness stemming from the Fed decision. WTI slipped into the low $40's on Tuesday but closed out the week at around $46/barrel.

Scandinavian central banks behaved unpredictably this week in rate actions. On Wednesday, Sweden's Riksbank delivered an unscheduled interest rate cut and expanded its QE bond purchase plan. The Riksbank cut its benchmark repo rate to -0.25% from -0.10% and expanded its bond-buying program by 30 billion kronor, adding to the 10 billion kronor in purchases that started last month. Norway's central bank arrested the slide in its currency by refraining from an expected 25 basis point rate cut on Thursday. Governor Olsen explained that the economy has performed better than was feared, and while rates could still be cut if needed, the central bank has not considered any additional measures beyond a rate action.

Valeant clinched its deal to acquire Salix Pharmaceuticals, raising its offer by about a billion dollars in a new deal that knocked out rival bidder Endo International. Valeant hiked its all-cash bid to $173/share, or about $11.1 billion total, up from its original offer of $158/share. Mall operator Simon Property raised its offer for Macerich to $95.50 from $91 just three days after it rejected Simon's earlier offer and adopted measures to prevent a hostile takeover. Analysts had suggested Macerich would not be satisfied with much less than $100/share, and shares of MAC fell as low as $84 as investors doubted the board would embrace Simon's "best and final" offer.

The Shanghai Composite had its best week of the year, rising over 7% to close above 3,600, the highest level in nearly 7 years. China Premier Li helped spark the rally at a press conference on Monday, promising more substantial fiscal support if the economy slows too much, especially given that recent measures were not considered very potent. February power consumption, which is one of Premier Li's favored economic indicators, slowed to just 2.5% from 3.3% last month and 3.8% in 2014. The Premier's promise to build more affordable housing was also particularly timely as this week's price data showed growing imbalances in the property sector - across the top 70 cities, February prices fell m/m for the 10th straight time and the y/y decline widened by 0.6pts to -5.7%.

In Japan, the BOJ policy statement was largely a reiteration of the prior month, maintaining annual rate of monetary base increase at ¥80T, and reiterating the economic assessment as continuing a moderate recovery trend. The biggest change in the statement pertained to inflation, as the BOJ scaled back its current CPI view to 0.0-0.5% from around 0.5% and the outlook for inflation to around 0% from prior assessment of "slow for time being." On Friday, Governor Kuroda reiterated his more optimistic stance that inflation will achieve the 2% target by the end of the intended FY15/16 period, just as the minutes from last month's meeting showed some growing concern related to the sustainability of the central bank's monthly JGB purchases. On Monday, the cabinet office is set to release its monthly economic assessment which local press speculated will show the first upgrade 8 months.


Mar 20 2015

To finish a good trading week on a just as pleasant note:


Very nice day with a lot of winning trades and just one stop, ending the good week.

Session Time: Fri Mar 20 00:00:00 2015
[09:22] {dino} gm
[09:22] {RonS} hi guys
[09:22] {dino} 3-6" snow coming my way (again)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  dino, ron :)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  sheesh
01[09:24] {@Threei}  all that snow ceased to be funny long ago
01[09:25] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -PRTA +40% (Phase 1 trial of PRX-002 shows positive results)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -SPEX +26% (update on litigation with VTech & Uniden)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -CTRP +20% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -ICLD +10% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -ICPT +8% (positive FLINT Phase 2b trial results for obeticholic acid)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -GMAN +7.5% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -BIIB +7.5% (positive Phase 1b BIIB037 Alzheimer's treatment)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -NKE +5% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -DRI +4.2% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -CMCM +3.6% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -MAC -8% (SPG increased offer to best and final at $95.50/shr vs. $91 prior)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -THRX -5.4% (momentum from yesterday's FDA decision on Breo Ellipta for children's asthma)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -YOKU -5% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -AKS -4.5% (guidance)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -TIF -3.6% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -ARG -2% (cut Q4 guidance)
[09:27] {RonS} mac knifed
[09:28] {dino} missing something, raised bid to 95 and drop?
[09:28] {RonS} 4/1 drop dead date after poison pills initiated...
01[09:30] {@Threei}  PRTA, some gap
[09:30] {dino} ty
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .30 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[09:32] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:34] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .65 break
01[09:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
[09:41] {dino} mac sm l .00
01[09:41] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .50 break
01[09:41] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[09:42] {@Threei}  to .56
01[09:45] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:46] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:46] {@Threei}  meh VXX
01[09:47] {@Threei}  1:3
01[09:47] {@Threei}  out .22
01[09:47] {@Threei}  1:4
[09:49] {dino} mac stop -.32
[09:50] {dino} cmcm sm l .62
[09:54] {dino} mac sm l .40
[09:55] {dino} prta nuts on p1
01[09:58] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .80 break
01[09:58] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[10:00] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:01] {@Threei}  PRTA CNBC's Cramer indicates will have the CEO on Mad Money later today
01[10:01] {@Threei}  that's when it drops dead
[10:02] {RonS} heard he said "wait for pullback", then it dropped
[10:02] {dino} phase 1, gut says buy puts
[10:03] {dino} out mac .81, +.41
[10:03] {RonS} what?  no big mac?
[10:04] {dino} vxx new 52 week low
01[10:04] {@Threei}  no, it's Royale with Cheese
[10:04] {dino} lol
[10:04] {dino} could go for quarter pounder w/cheese
01[10:05] {@Threei}  "Well, a Big Mac's a Big Mac, but they call it le Big-Mac"
[10:15] {RonS} sqm spike
[10:15] {RonS} biotech weak
[10:17] {dino} ?
[10:17] {RonS} ibb near day's lows...
[10:17] {RonS} Israel Chemicals say that they could be interested in SQM
[10:19] {RonS} IBB buyer of April 355x/340x put spread. 5,000 contracts for a net debit of about 3.05.
[10:22] {dino} cmcm stop .30 -.32
[10:23] {dino} anip drop
01[10:29] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .80 break
01[10:29] {@Threei}  .c .70
01[10:29] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[10:37] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:52] {dino} hate these gap up big opens
01[10:56] {@Threei}  phrase you'd be considered insane had you said it in 1994:
01[10:56] {@Threei}  Yelp says to try the gluten-free bison burger with kale and quinoa.
[10:57] {dino} tot spike
01[10:57] {@Threei}  I uploaded all my family pics to a cloud so I won't have to worry about data loss.
[10:58] {RonS} what happens when clouds rains?
01[10:59] {@Threei}  I have angry birds on my phone.
01[10:59] {@Threei}  The Queen of England photobombed a selfie.
[10:59] {RonS} sorry...compulsion...peckers in the hand, eh?
01[11:00] {@Threei}  lol
[11:02] {RonS} Market Internals update at 10:30ET - NYSE volume 440M shares, about 163% above its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 4.2:1.- NASDAQ volume 540M shares, about 36% above its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 2.1:1
01[11:02] {@Threei}  Equity markets are on a tear higher this morning, with European indices points off their highs and US indices seeing good gains in heavy volume (today is quad witching).
01[11:03] {@Threei}  . The Greece meeting has ended without any further resolutions, although there were mildly positive comments out of Chancellor Merkel, who seemed optimistic that Greece's new proposals would arrive next week and said she would have nothing to do with talk about a Greek EMU exit.
01[11:22] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .90 break
01[11:22] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[11:29] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:45] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .40 break
01[11:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[11:50] {@Threei}  1:1
[11:55] {dino} prta lower high lower lows
[12:07] {dino} nviv hl l .85
[12:21] {dino} prta lower low
01[12:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .60 break
01[12:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
[12:40] {dino} this prta, get to 35?
[12:40] {dino} riding puts
01[12:42] {@Threei}  looks like
01[12:43] {@Threei}  change to .50 break
01[12:52] {@Threei}  nah
[12:52] {dino} infa spike
[12:54] {RonS} infa takeover rumors
01[12:55] {@Threei}  INFA PE firms said to be preparing offers for the firm - financial press- Bidders said to include a consortium of Silver and Hellman & Friedman.
01[12:56] {@Threei}  [HLF] HLF Pershing's Ackman comments on L.A. court dismissal of shareholder suit this week, says the dismissal does not exonerate the firm or prove it is not a pyramid scheme
01[12:57] {@Threei}  (RU) US State Dept Spokesperson calls on Russia to halt sending weapons over the border into Ukraine
01[12:57] {@Threei}  Russia: well, if you won't, then who but us?
[13:00] {dino} infa sm s .67
[13:05] {dino} cov infa .30, +.37
01[13:06] {@Threei}  nice
[13:07] {dino} ty
01[13:08] {@Threei}  .40 was right entry to TWTR reversal
[13:09] {dino} ron, you finding many trades? you're not posting much lately
01[13:11] {@Threei} Short Setup: CELG  .70 break hl
[13:11] {RonS} not really
01[13:11] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
01[13:12] {@Threei}  1:1
[13:15] {RonS} gets tough for me when the scanner gets overrun by energy and biotech names
01[13:20] {@Threei}  rise up to challenge and buy some restaurant
01[13:20] {@Threei}  or the whole chain
01[13:20] {@Threei}  like MCD
[13:20] {dino} i was going to say quit whining
[13:20] {dino} vxx hit 24s
01[13:20] {@Threei} Short Setup: MCD  .40
01[13:20] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
[13:29] {dino} out fcx calls from yesterday, +.60 / 60%
[13:30] {RonS} gj... follow some guy on twitter that made $11k today on fcx calls from yesterday
[13:31] {dino} too bad it wasn't me, only 10 of those buggers
[13:31] {RonS} the dude swings a crazy heavy book in options
[13:31] {dino} indeed
[13:33] {dino} i'm trying to add 30% to my stock day trades, thru options
[13:33] {dino} in feb i blew that away, $10k
[13:34] {dino} right now in march, half way there, {1,500
[13:36] {RonS} he bot 400 may 20's for .57...partialed 50 @ .65, 50 @ .79, 50 @ .86....still holding the rest for now
[13:38] {dino} swinging a bigger account than i, most of my cash goesright back into forclosures. bidding a 25 acre lot w/house this weekend, should get it for around $80k. will break it up, the house land alone is worth $100k
[13:39] {dino} the land is wprth $100k, house probably $80k on 2 acres
[13:39] {RonS} unreal
[13:40] {dino} yeah, still crazy up here, lots of opportunities in foreclosures, should carry on for two more years
[13:40] {dino} if i get this one, it will be house #30 in 10 years
[13:41] {dino} want 100 flipped by time i turn 65, another 15 years
[13:43] {dino} best part is, i now have a gc who handles everything, most i do is send my son to mow the lawns
[13:43] {RonS} lol...the pro's around here do 6-15 at a time and turn them 3-4x every year...but there are years when they stop and walk away
[13:44] {dino} two at a time my max, tough to keep my head clear for trading above that number (worry about cash out there)
[13:45] {dino} but yeah, some of thoses pros are inbredible
[13:45] {dino} incredible
[13:45] {dino} those
[13:53] {RonS} they still make mistakes...guy bot house on next block...had to have put $50k into it...marked it up $130k...was going to get full price 2 days after went on merket...buyers wanted (and it needed) a new roof...seller said no...buyers walked... 2 weeks later interest rates moved up, and market softened...seller put on new roof and later cut his price $50k
01[13:55] {@Threei}  yikes
[13:56] {dino} yeah, its all a game. timing and luck play big part. i don't use the banks. i buy cash, but still hate to have it out there too long. typically i bi as is, cash, 20 close, clear tutle. it bumps a lot of theothers out right away
[13:56] {dino} bi=bid; tutly=title
[13:57] {dino} but yeah, every nowand then you get stuck, when that happens i go to a one year rental, then re-list after that. rental business here is brutal
[13:58] {cosmo} I like to be in cash at the end of the day
[13:58] {dino} with stocks, me too cosmo
[14:00] {cosmo} :) ...I've told that to realators though, with a streight face
[14:01] {dino} lol
01[14:01] {@Threei}  lol
01[14:02] {@Threei}  got a buddy in SD... man, I would love to have him trading stocks and being in sight all the time
01[14:03] {@Threei}  guy bought anfd sold two houses over last 9 years - both buys are at exact tops, sell at exact bottom
01[14:03] {@Threei}  perfect contrarian indicators
01[14:03] {@Threei}  -s
01[14:03] {@Threei}  just go against him, you'll never lose
[14:04] {dino} lol, thats my attorney, whenever he's getting back into stocks i know its time to get nervous
01[14:04] {@Threei}  and the amount of research he does to time his buys and sells, and confidence he has in them is beyond belief
[14:04] {cosmo} i can emphasize
[14:05] {cosmo} ...make it in stocks: loose it in RE
01[14:05] {@Threei}  I got married with less thinking than he puts into which website to open today for another step in research
01[14:05] {@Threei}  (with better success too)
01[14:11] {@Threei}  1:2  MCD
[14:11] {dino} gj
01[14:11] {@Threei}  decent day shapes up
01[14:11] {@Threei}  ty
[14:12] {dino} if i get out of these prta puts right, then yes
[14:18] {dino} friday afternoons, slowwwww
01[14:20] {@Threei}  1:3
01[14:20] {@Threei}  slowly climbing market... alqways like this
01[14:23] {@Threei}  1:4
[14:26] {dino} nice
01[14:27] {@Threei}  ty
[14:39] {RonS} crox spike
[15:03] {RonS} hey dino...
[15:04] {dino} yes
[15:06] {RonS} son-in-law works for dva in a fairly senior postion for a 33 yr old... he told me the day after earnings the ceo underplayed what they were doing... w/ the neg reaction in the stock i felt he did it on purpose so Buffet could increase his stake...
[15:07] {RonS} ...when buffet's holdings came out he in fact had increased them and dva got the run you see...
[15:08] {dino} stuff like that happens all the time i bet
[15:08] {RonS} ...today someone bought nearly 8000 apr 80 puts... possible could see some weakness here... fwiw
01[15:18] {@Threei}  no news that I see for this market retreat
[15:19] {RonS} "Reigning Boredom Causes Market Selloff"
01[15:20] {@Threei}  pretty good
[15:21] {dino} indeed
[15:22] {RonS} what upsets me is that the vxx made its move early and i see no play there...
[15:22] {dino} 30 or 60 day calls
[15:23] {RonS} ?
[15:23] {dino} just saying, if you think it goes up buy calls
[15:24] {RonS} was talking day trade...
[15:24] {dino} opps
[15:26] {RonS} $54 million bet:  http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2015/03/20/whopper-options-bet-against-vix-etf/
[15:31] {RonS} pulling the plug here... good weekend to all... it is 70 and sunny out there...   :)
[15:31] {dino} cya ron
01[15:33] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .60 break
01[15:34] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
[15:36] {dino} out prta puts from this morning, +1.20 / 36%
[15:39] {dino} with that trade, caling it a week, gn all
01[15:40] {@Threei}  me too
01[15:40] {@Threei}  have a great weekend
01[15:40] {@Threei}  see you Monday

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Mar 19 2015

Nicely positive day, even though on a slowish side - but that's kind of normal lately. FCX was particularly good to us.

Session Time: Thu Mar 19 00:00:00 2015
[09:03] {dino} gm
01[09:03] {@Threei}  dino :)
01[09:17] {@Threei}  dino fell asleep
[09:19] {RonS} gm...apparently
01[09:19] {@Threei}  ron :)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -FOLD +26% (global regulatory update from EMA & FDA for Migalastat Fabry Monotherapy)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -HRTX +11% (disclosed positive Phase 1 HTX-11 data in post-op pain)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -GES +10% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -CBMX +9.5% (wins payor contract with InterWest HealthAddition)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -SMLR +8% (announced FDA clearance for next generation PAD testing system)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -NQ +7.5% (earnings; appointed Chun Ding new independent director)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -SCVL +7.3% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -RMGN -15% (signed non-binding LOI to sell airline media network business for $5.5M)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -APPS -8% (FY16 guidance & registered $400M mixed shelf)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -CNCE -6% (priced 3.3M share offering at $15.15/shr)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -POT -4.3% (Saskatchewan govt made changes to Potash taxation & initiates review; FY15 earnings cut by C$75-100M)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -HRZN -4% (priced 2.38M share offering at $13.95/shr)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -RTRX -3% (priced 6.8M share offering at $19/shr)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -WSM -3% (earnings)
01[09:33] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .50 break
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:37] {dino} rs sm l .24
01[09:38] {@Threei} Short Setup: MCD  .90 break
01[09:38] {@Threei}  ugh... late
01[09:43] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .60 break
01[09:44] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[09:46] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .55 break
01[09:46] {@Threei}  If holds  ,45
01[09:48] {@Threei}  FB got away
01[09:51] {@Threei}  no go VXX
[09:53] {dino} added some aug fcx calls
01[09:54] {@Threei} Short Setup: MCD  .75 break
01[09:54] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
01[09:58] {@Threei}  [FCX] Seeing early put activity following reports that production has been halted at Grasberg - 2100 weekly 16.5 puts trade at $0.31- Press reports have indicated workers have blocked access to the Indonesia unit for a fourth straight day
[09:59] {dino} ty, saw that
01[09:59] {@Threei} Long Setup:  JPM  .50 break
01[09:59] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[10:00] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:03] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .85 break
01[10:03] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
01[10:05] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:06] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:14] {@Threei}  nice run TWTR
01[10:15] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .33 break
01[10:15] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
[10:16] {dino} ll sm l .70
01[10:17] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:17] {@Threei}  (close enough
[10:29] {dino} not seeing much
[10:34] {dino} espr rocking again
01[10:34] {@Threei}  that's some move
[10:34] {RonS} unreal
01[10:43] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:43] {@Threei}  slow but sure
[10:56] {RonS} Diageo says it will put nutritional labels on beverages such as Smirnoff vodka, Tanqueray gin, and Guinness stout. http://bloom.bg/1I1zPxu
[10:59] {dino} blue spike
01[11:00] {@Threei}  nutritional label on vodka?
[11:01] {cosmo} Guinness makes sense though
01[11:02] {@Threei}  "Oh my, all these calories... I gotta quit drinking"
[11:06] {RonS} cndo becoming a house
[11:14] {RonS} hifr pulp
01[11:14] {@Threei}  Equities are trading lower this morning as market participants re-evaluate the macro picture in the wake of the Fed's new stance.
01[11:14] {@Threei}  what new stance?
[11:14] {RonS} lol
01[11:15] {@Threei}  "we are removing "patient" but that doesn't mean we are impatient"?
01[11:15] {@Threei}  give me that vodka bottle with new nutrition information on it...
01[11:16] {@Threei}  OK, next paragraph is about to trigger a bout of epilepsy:
01[11:16] {@Threei}  Markets are endlessly rehashing the FOMC statement and Fed Chair Yellen's words from yesterday. Yellen couched the removal of the patient language in pretty clear terms: "just because we removed the word patient from the statement doesn't mean we're going to be impatient."
[11:16] {dino} talking heads
01[11:16] {@Threei}  somebody shoot me
[11:17] {cosmo} vodka shooter
01[11:17] {@Threei}  The gargantuan five big-figure move in EUR/USD (a round trip from 1.0650 to 1.1050 and back again, the second broadest one-day range seen since 2000) continues to echo through FX markets this morning. Analysts suggest the huge move, sparked by the Fed tempering its enthusiasm for US growth and imminent policy changes, was a bit of a one-off event given the late US afternoon usually has pretty thin FX liquidity conditions.
01[11:18] {@Threei}  WTI crude jumped from below $42.50 to above $45 at the close of cash equity trading yesterday afternoon. But like the euro rally, oil prices retraced the gains. Brent rose from $54 to nearly $57 and has also retraced nearly all its post-FOMC gains. As of writing, WTI is around $43.17 and Brent is around $54.40.
01[11:18] {@Threei}  lol
[11:20] {dino} going to the 30s
01[11:22] {@Threei}  chart sure says so
[11:29] {RonS} Islamic State says it is behind deadly attack on Tunisia museum in online recording
[11:29] {dino} shocking
[11:55] {dino} oled drop
[11:57] {dino} espr up another 2 bucks
[12:00] {dino} taking a lunch break
01[12:22] {@Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .30 break
01[12:22] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[12:38] {@Threei}  1:1
01[13:07] {@Threei}  hah... blast from the past
[13:07] {RonS} ye olde boat dude...
01[13:12] {@Threei}  he is content with letting us see him, but talking to us is beneath him {GGG}
[13:13] {RonS} must be on moot...
[13:13] {RonS} ...doesn't want to become relevant...
01[13:14] {@Threei}  maybe he is a ghost?
[13:15] {RonS} figures...given where he works...
01[13:15] {@Threei}  yeah, short distance to cross
[13:16] {Chaeron} HI EVERYBODY!
01[13:16] {@Threei}  not a ghost
01[13:16] {@Threei}  hey :)
[13:16] {Chaeron} sorry... had a call... someone actually to talk to
[13:16] {Chaeron} don't let me interrupt :)
01[13:16] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .60 break
01[13:16] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[13:17] {@Threei}  no, that's OK... we understand the striking difference between ourselves and someone to actually talk to :)
01[13:18] {@Threei}  see private message chaeron
01[13:20] {@Threei}  1:1
[13:55] {dino} adpt spike
01[13:57] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .50 break
[14:07] {dino} they can't take it down, my gut says up
01[14:09] {@Threei}  yeah
01[14:09] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[14:09] {dino} spxl sm l .54
01[14:15] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .80 break
[14:18] {dino} tsla drop
[14:21] {dino}  agio spike
[14:21] {dino} spxl stop .24 -.30
01[14:28] {@Threei}  IWM is valid
[14:32] {dino} rinsed
[14:38] {Chaeron} 3i kicked me?
[14:40] {Chaeron} just when I was going to say bye all... keep countin' the benjamins... make the stacks so phat the rubberband breaks, yo....
01[14:40] {@Threei}  lol
01[14:41] {@Threei}  no kicking:
01[14:41] {@Threei}  [14:38] * Chaeron (Mibbit@jas-EE75B5F4.public.wayport.net) Quit
01[14:41] {@Threei}  see?
01[14:41] {@Threei}  on your own volition
01[14:51] {@Threei}  1:1
[15:12] {RonS} unreal:  White House: US 'to reevaluate' backing for Israel at UN
01[15:12] {@Threei}  eeck
01[15:13] {@Threei}  (IL) Israel's Netanyahu: A two state solution is possible, just not now - Reminder: Ahead of the recent elections Netanyahu claimed that if he were reelected, he would not allow a two state solution under his watch
01[15:13] {@Threei}  so, this is Obama's reaction on Bibi's re-election?
01[15:14] {@Threei}  unbelievable
[15:14] {RonS} yep, childish temper tantrum
01[15:15] {@Threei}  such vindictiveness for a statesman
[15:16] {RonS} meantime kowtow to every despot on the planet...
[15:21] {dino} idiot obummer
01[15:26] {@Threei}  wow... only in Victoria: https://www.facebook.com/ilovedowntownvictoria/photos/a.134780149874999.20063.123641760988838/953242428028763/?type=1&theater
01[15:28] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .85 break
01[15:28] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
01[15:29] {@Threei}  change to .80
01[15:30] {@Threei}  If holds  .73
01[15:33] {@Threei}  1:1
01[15:46] {@Threei}  ok, ending on this
01[15:46] {@Threei}  positive day again
01[15:46] {@Threei}  thank you, have a good evening
01[15:46] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Mar 18 2015

That was a very unusual day. Started with a few stops, and it seemed like waiting for FOMC made it untradable. Every trade after the Fed was profitable though, from 1:2 to 1:4, and finished the day positive. No complaints.


Session Time: Wed Mar 18 00:00:00 2015
01[09:11] {@Threei}  morning guys
01[09:12] {@Threei}  we managed to finish mini-vacation on Fed day, lol
[09:12] {RonS} hello...ya...
[09:13] {RonS} dino is a bad planner...
01[09:14] {@Threei}  unless it's all a part of a bigger plan, and he decided to stay on Jamaica forever
01[09:19] {@Threei}  maybe sending him a booklet Expats in Jamaica was not the best idea
[09:21] {cosmo} hmm, maybe Jamaica needs a good NFL team
[09:21] {cosmo} they can have the Chargers, btw
01[09:28] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -RTRX +38% (FDA approved Cholbam for rare bile acid synthesis disorders)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -VTSS +37% (being acquired by MSCC for $5.28/shr)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -ZQK +9% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -EJ +5% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -HLF +4% (LA Federal judge dismissed shareholders' pyramid scheme suit)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -ORCL +2.6% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -MU +1.7% (positive broker commentary)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -NKTR -15% (NKTR-102 Phase 3 study showed no statistical significance in survivability)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -ADBE -5% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -CYTX -4.5% (amended securities purchase agreement)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -ANTH -3.4% (priced 5.55M shares at $4.50/shr)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -FDX -2% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -DRYS -1.5% (filed $1B mixed securities shelf and $180M secondary offering)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -STJ -1% (negative broker commentary)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  dino... suntan must be an inch deep by now!
[09:31] {dino} lol, gm all, back at my turret. hope you did well while i was away
01[09:31] {@Threei}  we took vacation too
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .55 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
[09:33] {dino} see my veev calls sold while away, +.60/34%
01[09:34] {@Threei}  sheesh... he gets suntan and makes money
01[09:34] {@Threei}  borders with total indecency
[09:38] {dino} lucky
01[09:39] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .80 break
01[09:39] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[09:39] {@Threei}  no go VXX
01[09:42] {@Threei}  grrr
01[09:44] {@Threei} Short Setup: JPM  .40 break
01[09:44] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[09:49] {@Threei}  stop to .46
[09:52] {dino} irbt sm l .31
[09:56] {dino} lcrx sm l .95
01[09:56] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MCD  .55 break
01[09:56] {@Threei}  that was too fast
[09:56] {dino} why is nktr holding
01[09:56] {@Threei}  teleported to above 1:1
[09:57] {dino} lrcx that was
01[10:04] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .50 break
01[10:04] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[10:10] {@Threei}  not getting rhythm right
[10:10] {dino} ;lrcx stop .65 -.30
01[10:15] {@Threei} Long Setup:  BP  .30 break
01[10:15] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
[10:16] {RonS} unconfirmed chatter from london desks cvx to buy bp for $48/sh
01[10:19] {@Threei}  (SA) Saudi prince Turki al-Faisal: Saudi Arabia won't interfere in the oil market any time soon
01[10:19] {@Threei}  Putin: you bastard...
01[10:30] {@Threei}  *(US) DOE CRUDE: +9.6M V +4.0ME
[10:32] {dino} mmi drop
[10:32] {dino} sm l .86
01[10:39] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .50 break
01[10:39] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[10:42] {@Threei}  General Motors will slash production in Russia and pull its mass-market Opel brand completely in the face of plummeting sales in the economically troubled country.
01[10:43] {@Threei}  ok, this is sad... I say let's sell as many GM cars over there as possible
[10:43] {dino} out mmi .20, +.34
[10:43] {cosmo} Why GM?
01[10:44] {@Threei}  because they are crap?
[10:45] {cosmo} ...and russia could be like cuba
[10:45] {cosmo} about cars anyway
01[10:45] {@Threei}  sans palm trees
[10:46] {cosmo} = cell phone tower trees maybe?
01[10:47] {@Threei}  masked as birch trees
01[10:47] {@Threei}  Invalidated  VXX
[10:53] {RonS} dino, look at that espr...been crazy and today really unreal as they announced coming w/ secondary last night w/ no price set...never seen anything like it
[10:53] {dino} ok
[10:53] {dino} wow +30 in 5 dats
[10:54] {RonS} not really suggesting you trade it...just interesting
[10:54] {dino} days
[10:55] {dino} phase 2 pos results
[10:56] {RonS} hearing pac crest defending lrcx...prob getting this late...
01[11:00] {@Threei}  no, 10:55
01[11:00] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .60 break
01[11:01] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
[11:01] {dino} spxl sm l .87
[11:02] {dino} espr just up, not trading it
01[11:04] {@Threei}  WLL Hearing chatter that WLL receiving strong bids as it explores options
01[11:04] {@Threei}  no go
01[11:04] {@Threei}  this fed day is not mine
[11:11] {RonS} hearing China Times reporting fb approval imminent by govt
01[11:12] {@Threei}  FB Reportedly Chinese regulators are preparing to approve Facebook in China
01[11:12] {@Threei}  Link: http://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20150318002326-260407
[11:13] {RonS} lol...it's in Chinese
01[11:13] {@Threei}  sorry... :)
[11:13] {RonS} Homer Simpson...Doh!
01[11:14] {@Threei}  hehe
01[11:15] {@Threei}  FB is running
[11:15] {dino} stop spxl .68 -.19
[11:15] {dino} took .01 fb off your comment
01[11:16] {@Threei}  wtg
[11:16] {dino} fb to .49
[11:17] {dino} to .56
[11:17] {dino} out .55, +.54
[11:17] {dino} ty 3i
01[11:18] {@Threei}  :)
[11:20] {dino} taking a break
[11:30] {RonS} ocn halt...news pending
01[11:54] {@Threei}  [OCN] Intends to Sell $9.6B Portfolio of Mortgage Servicing Rights to Green Tree (WAC) - WAC signed an agreement in principle for the sale by Ocwen of residential mortgage servicing rights on a portfolio consisting of approximately 55,500 largely performing loans owned by Freddie Mac with a total principal balance of approximately $9.6 billion.
01[11:55] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .60 break
01[11:55] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[12:07] {@Threei}  Equity trading volumes are subdued this morning and equities are in the red as participants await the Fed statement and Yellen's press conference later this afternoon.
01[12:08] {@Threei}  WTI crude stabbed toward $42 before ahead of the DoE inventory report this morning, and trading was volatile on release of the data. Inventories builds were more than twice the expected amount. Last night the API report disclosed the biggest build in inventories in four weeks. Brent has edged higher during the US session, rising to around $54.50 from below $53 earlier.
01[12:13] {@Threei}  I severely dislike today
01[12:29] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  80 break
01[12:29] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[12:33] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[12:44] {@Threei}  valid again
01[12:47] {@Threei}  sheesh... bid held
01[12:48] {@Threei}  A NATO patrol intercepted Russian fighter jets over the Baltic Sea, Lithuanian authorities said on March 18
01[12:50] {@Threei}  (CA) Canada PM Harper: Very carefully observing lending levels in housing market, not planning any immediate action right now - Canadian banks remain well capitalized
01[12:50] {@Threei}  what is the best 5 years fixed rate from major banks in US right now?
[12:51] {RonS} about 2.2%
01[12:55] {@Threei}  that's low... our best is 2.79
01[13:07] {@Threei}  took scalp on FB
01[13:07] {@Threei}  needed something to qork
01[13:07] {@Threei}  work too
[13:30] {dino} .
[13:32] {RonS} ll jiggy...sbux up on 2:1 split announcement
[13:35] {dino} was just looking at ll
[13:41] {dino} out irbt .77, +.47
01[13:44] {@Threei}  wtg
[13:44] {dino} ty, took all day
01[13:45] {@Threei}  (IS) White House is reportedly planning to re-evaluate peace strategy for the Middle East
01[13:45] {@Threei}  as in, get some?
[13:45] {dino} lol
[13:49] {RonS} gawd, can you imagine Hillary as Prez?...she looks so tired and old...ugliest thing since Golda Meir but Golda never looked tired
[13:50] {dino} she looks like she could be on the walking dead
[13:50] {RonS} lol
[13:50] {RonS} perfect
01[13:53] {@Threei}  well... will reps come up with someone who could win?
[13:55] {RonS} import Bibi?
01[13:55] {@Threei}  lol
01[13:55] {@Threei}  or at leats hire him as a campaign manager
[13:56] {dino} 3i, i don't think they can get anybod that can beat the liberal media coverage
01[13:59] {@Threei}  so... we are doomed for another 8 years?
01[13:59] {@Threei}  TSLA New Jersey Gov Christie to sign bill authorizing Tesla direct sales
01[14:00] {@Threei}  *(US) FOMC HOLDS FED FUNDS TARGET AT 0.25%: REMOVES "PATIENT" LANGUAGE
01[14:01] {@Threei}  The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.
01[14:02] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .60 break
01[14:03] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[14:03] {@Threei}  1:1
01[14:04] {@Threei}  1:2
[14:04] {dino} w/you
[14:05] {dino} 8 years, no, hillary won't live that long, looks like shes 90 now
[14:05] {dino} out vxx .85, +.24
01[14:05] {@Threei}  1:3
01[14:06] {@Threei}  finally something decent
[14:09] {dino} wow 250 point swing
[14:09] {RonS} now that she has been removed, where will Patience go?
01[14:13] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .50 break
01[14:13] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[14:13] {@Threei}  change to .40 break
[14:14] {dino} vxx banging s3
[14:15] {RonS} tick +1341
01[14:16] {@Threei}  change to .30 break
01[14:16] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[14:19] {@Threei}  Janus' Bill Gross: New key word in Fed policy statement is "prudence"; Somewhat surprised by the more dovish statement - CNBC
[14:20] {RonS} isn't that patience sister?
[14:20] {dino} thats just gross
01[14:20] {@Threei}  lol
01[14:20] {@Threei}  Comparative analysis of current vs Jan FOMC statements: Drops "patient", rates now dependent on employment and inflation data; Revises down economic growth language; gives nod to strong dollar by noting weaker exports; indicates inflation has likely bottomed out; says explicitly no rate hike in April
01[14:21] {@Threei}  gravity time, SPY
01[14:21] {@Threei}  IMO, this whole "language change" thing is overestimated
[14:22] {dino} vxx l .35
[14:22] {RonS} ya think...amazing after 2000 years we still listen to an Oracle of Delphi
01[14:23] {@Threei}  lol
01[14:23] {@Threei}  1:1
01[14:23] {@Threei}  1:2
[14:23] {dino} out vxx .49, +.14
[14:24] {dino} strong $ and every other country weakening, how can they raise
[14:24] {RonS} crude explede to $46.65, now .35
[14:24] {dino} will put us out of business
01[14:24] {@Threei}  doubt they will
[14:29] {RonS} someone bought $3 mil of UUP puts yesterday...getting paid in spades with this $ weakness
[14:30] {RonS} yellen commences
[14:31] {RonS} wow espr 106
[14:32] {RonS} lol...oh no..."says removing patient does't mean fed to ne impatient"
[14:32] {RonS} -n +b
01[14:33] {@Threei}  lol
[14:34] {RonS} poor Greeks...went to Oracle...always came back sayin...wtf?
[14:34] {dino} lol
01[14:36] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  81 break
01[14:36] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
[14:38] {RonS} hearing large call buying now vix in apr 17 calls
01[14:41] {@Threei}  1:1
01[14:42] {@Threei}  that's one weird day... usually things work before Fed, become unreadable after. Today is just thwe opposite
[14:44] {dino} gotta hop for 45, back around 3:30
01[14:45] {@Threei}  some suntan touch-up?
01[14:49] {@Threei}  1:2
[14:55] {RonS} good one
[14:58] {RonS} wow espr new hod 108.50
01[14:58] {@Threei}  ty'
01[15:01] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .50 break
01[15:02] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[15:04] {@Threei}  1:1
01[15:05] {@Threei}  1:2
01[15:05] {@Threei}  (close enough)
01[15:05] {@Threei}  fixed the day, lol
01[15:12] {@Threei}  out .95
01[15:15] {@Threei}  too soon
[15:15] {RonS} wow
[15:24] {dino} .
[15:25] {cosmo} good point
01[15:26] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .05 break
01[15:32] {@Threei}  half out
01[15:33] {@Threei}  1:1
01[15:38] {@Threei}  1:2
[15:38] {dino} vxx hit 52 week low today
[15:38] {RonS} good enough, out...thanks 3i
01[15:39] {@Threei}  :)
[15:39] {RonS} hearing more vix call buying apr and june 16 and 17
[15:40] {RonS} need to leave...see all tomorrow
[15:41] {dino} ron leaves so fast, its like he's skipping out on a dinner check
01[15:41] {@Threei}  lol
01[15:41] {@Threei}  OK, finishing here
01[15:42] {@Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow



Friday, March 13, 2015

Market Week Wrap-up

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: ECB QE Stretches Markets
Fri, 13 Mar 2015 16:11 PM EST

The ECB officially kicked off its QE purchases on Monday, driving the euro toward parity with the dollar and inspiring wild action in European sovereign bond yields. US equities slipped lower as continental European indices headed higher, implying a continuing rotation into European stocks. The dollar index continued to test 12-year highs, and crude prices fell under the foot of the strong dollar (plus more worries about inventories). China published jumbled economic data, distorted by the Lunar New Year holiday: a record trade surplus was undercut by imports showing their worst decline in six years, while PPI continued to contract even as CPI was hotter than expected. With Europe easing and the US on the verge of rate lift off, the Bank of Korea was the latest of nearly two dozen central banks to add to policy accommodation in recent months, surprising the markets with its first rate cut in five months, setting policy at a record low of 1.75%. The German DAX and French CAC notched fresh record highs, while US stocks were volatile and gave up ground. For the week, the Nasdaq dropped 1.1%, the DJIA lost 0.6%, and the S&P500 fell 0.9%.

There were some big misses in US January and February sales data out this week. Jan wholesale trade sales contracted more than 3%, far more than expected, for the biggest drop since early 2009. Feb retail sales declined 0.6%, missing expectations for a slight gain, auto sales declined 2.5%, ex autos and gas sales fell by 0.2%. Broad-based declines were seen across all categories in the reports, lending credence to analysts blaming the brutal winter weather. PPI data continued to drag, with another negative reading that could be a cautionary counterpoint to the higher than expected core CPI reading in February. Meanwhile the January JOLTS job openings report - Fed Chair Yellen's favorite gauge of employment demand - were not far off the 14-year highs seen in January.

The ECB bought €9.8 billion of bonds with an average maturity of nine years in the first three days of its new QE program. Recall that the ECB said it would buy a total of €60 billion a month in government and private debt through to September 2016. EUR/USD dropped from 1.0850 on Monday to fresh 12-year lows below 1.0500 on Friday, inspiring tons of analyst commentary that dollar parity was inevitable in 2015. With the start of QE, yields on sovereign debt fell dramatically, with the German 10-year bund testing record lows around 0.187% even as German 2-year and 5-year yields sank deeper into negative territory. There was talk that the ECB bought 5-year German debt at negative rates, although keep in mind that the bank said it would only buy sovereign debt down to a -0.20% negative rate.

Crude prices slipped lower this week, giving up the gains seen over the course of February. WTI ticked back below $50 early on in the week and was around $45 as of Friday, while Brent dropped away from the $60 handle back into the mid-$50's. Overall dollar strength is making life difficult for the so-called recovery in oil prices even as the giant inventory builds seen over recent weeks moderate ever so slightly. The API inventory data showed the first drawdown in crude stocks seen in two months and the DoE inventory build was somewhat smaller than ones seen in recent weeks. Nevertheless, Genscape data suggest current inventories in Cushing, OK are within 3 million barrels of the record high, which occurred in April 2013 due to a lack of outbound pipeline capacity.

All 31 major banks passed the Fed's annual stress test, but the Fed took issue with some of the banks' capital plans. The Fed rejected capital plans of the US units of Deutsche Bank and Santander "on qualitative concerns." It was the second year in a row Santander's capital plans failed. Capital plans from Goldman, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley only got a greenlight after the Fed forced the three to readjust their initial requests. Bank of America's CCAR plan was approved with the stipulation that it resubmit the plan by September to address certain weaknesses identified in the company's capital planning process. There were also reports this week that the Basel Committee was working on a plan to ask big global banks to boost capital levels in order to prepare for a possible interest rate spike. Reports suggest the committee will announce the proposal later in March.

Intel cut its first quarter guidance due to lower chip inventories at PC manufacturers and the slowing desktop PC upgrade cycle. Intel also cited macroeconomic and currency effects. The day after Intel's guidance cut, IDC cut its forecast for 2015 worldwide PC shipments to -4.9% from -3.3% prior, citing the ongoing shift to mobile devices and the strong dollar. But IDC also had bad news for tablets: the first y/y decline in worldwide tablet shipments was seen in the final quarter of 2014, and IDC lowered its five-year forecast for the category.

In deal news, Salix Pharmaceuticals has ignited a bidding war, as Endo Pharma sought to outdo the $158/share all cash offer Salix had already accepted from Valeant. Endo's unsolicited offer was nominally at $175/share, but its 75% stock component reduced the value as Endo's shares slipped on the announcement. Reports indicated that the Endo bid was enough to force Valeant to call in its major investors including Pershing Square to put together an improved bid that Salix will consider this weekend. Elsewhere, Alcoa reached an agreement to acquire RTI International Metals for $41/share in cash. Alcoa noted it expected to contribute $1.2 billion in revenues in 2019 and reach profitability of 25% EBITDA margin. After weeks of rumors, Simon Property formally bid $91/share cash and stock for Macerich, valuing the firm around $22.5 billion. In what may lead next week's M&A news, Whiting Petroleum, the largest producer in North Dakota's Bakken shale, has reportedly put itself up for sale and is attracting attention from Exxon and Hess, whose bids are due next week.

The Shanghai Composite traded within a whisker of its 6-year highs, rising to just shy of the key 3,400 level. A broad set of January-February economic data was decidedly mixed, though the general consensus appears to be on the side of continued policy easing by the PBoC to counter an apparent slowdown. On the plus side, February trade balance hit a record high surplus of $60B, accentuated by off-month Lunar New Year volatility in exports and imports. Feb CPI bounced off its 5-year lows of last month to reach 1.4%, topping consensus 1.0%, while M2 money supply hit a 4-month high of 12.5% - above expected 11% and the overall 2015 target of 12%. Alternatively, YTD Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Fixed Asset Investment all hit multi-year lows, reminding investors that Q1 conditions on the mainland are quite weak and, as speculated by ANZ, could result in a sub-7% GDP.

Elsewhere in Asia-Pacific, the Bank of Korea surprised with a 25 basis point rate cut to a record low 1.75%. Two board members opposed the easing, though Governor Lee erred on the side of caution, citing lower than expected inflation, a persistent output gap, and external risks related to the China slowdown. The RBNZ policy announcement was notably more even-keeled, producing a 130pip spike in the Kiwi dollar. After January's surprise introduction of a potential easing, traders re-priced expectations based on RBNZ's view of recovering growth next year and continued property inflation. Australia's February unemployment rate ticked down from January's 12-year high and aggregate working hours rose, but the labor participation rate slowed to a 4-month low, prompting further calls that the job market will continue to struggle under the weight of a mining slowdown adjustment.

Thursday, March 12, 2015

Mar 12 2015

Quite boring day, as many of these slow climb sessions tend to be. For the most part of the day market remained flatlined. Finished positive, but without any fireworks. Taking a short break for a few days, so next trading session is going to be on Wed, March 18.


Session Time: Thu Mar 12 00:00:00 2015
[09:03] {dino} gm
01[09:03] {@Threei}  dino :)
01[09:03] {@Threei}  you are off tomorrow, and back on Wed, right?
[09:05] {dino} yes
[09:06] {dino} that doesn't mean you guys are off, i expect you to work hard while i'm away. no slacking!
01[09:06] {@Threei}  nope, we fully intend to use it as an excuse to slack off
01[09:07] {@Threei}  konoby, look private message please
[09:08] {RonS} mu smacked off intc lowered sales guidance
[09:08] {RonS} gm btw
01[09:08] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:09] {konoby} gm
01[09:11] {@Threei}  konoby :)
01[09:11] {@Threei}  double-click on my name to read the private message
[09:13] {konoby} trying
01[09:14] {@Threei}  new window should pop up when you do
[09:15] {konoby} its not
01[09:16] {@Threei}  see on top, where $discussions and #floor are, there should be one more with Threei on it
01[09:16] {@Threei}  left-click that
[09:17] {konoby} got it,just pm you back
[09:23] {dino} welcome konoby
01[09:24] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -JASO +7% (earnings)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -LL +6% (company issues Q1 guidance)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -ZOES +5.5% (earnings)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -PQ +3.6% (elects not to proceed with public offering of common stock)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -MS +3.4% (CCAR results)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -AZN +3% (PhaseBio raises $40M Series C financing led by AZN)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -UTX +2.2% (confirmed exploration of strategic alternatives for Sikorsky aircraft business)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -ACAD -21% (delayed NUPLAXIDTM NDA to 2H '15 and the CEO retired effective immediately)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -BOX -17% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -KKD -8% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -SHAK -8% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -CYBR -7% (priced 4M shares at $51/shr)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -INTC -4% (guided Q1 lower)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -CUR -3.7% (Phase 2 trial of NSI-566 met primary endpoint)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -XOMA -3.2% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -MSFT -2.3% (sympathy move from INTC comments on demand for desktop PC weakness)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -HPQ -1.7% (negative broker commentary; INTC comments on PC demand)
01[09:30] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  78 break
01[09:30] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:31] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:31] {@Threei}  tough for execution though
01[09:31] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:32] {@Threei}  1:3
01[09:32] {@Threei}  out
01[09:32] {@Threei}  got only 600
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .70 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[09:34] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:34] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .60 break
01[09:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[09:36] {@Threei}  nope
01[09:42] {@Threei} Short Setup: MCD  .55 break
01[09:42] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[09:43] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:45] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .15 break
01[09:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
[09:47] {dino} acad sm l .60
01[09:47] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:47] {dino} stopped -.30
01[09:48] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:51] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .60 break
01[09:51] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[09:52] {@Threei}  nice bid to break
01[09:54] {@Threei}  no go
01[09:56] {@Threei} Short Setup: JPM  .25 break
01[09:57] {@Threei}  If holds  .35
01[09:57] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) JAN BUSINESS INVENTORIES: 0.0% V 0.1%E
01[10:01] {@Threei} Short Setup: JPM  .30 break
01[10:01] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[10:01] {@Threei}  FB rinsed
[10:08] {dino} acad sm l .71
01[10:09] {@Threei}  no go
[10:10] {dino} acad stopped again, tricky
01[10:18] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .45 break
01[10:18] {@Threei}  If holds  .35
01[10:30] {@Threei}  (PL) Poland National Security Bureau's Koziej: Poland is already a target of coordinated Russian information war; to organize nationwide military drills in the second half of 2015
01[10:31] {@Threei}  [LL] CEO: we remain confident in the safety of our products - conf call Call volume to customer centers rose after the 60 Minutes broadcast but is now starting to normalize. To reassure our customers, we have implemented an air quality testing program at no cost to the customer. The testing is done by an independent third-party lab for an initial screening.
01[10:32] {@Threei}  no go VXX
01[10:32] {@Threei}  not liking today very much
01[10:32] {@Threei}  trading jabs
01[10:35] {@Threei}  LL explosion
01[10:35] {@Threei}  followed by implosion
01[10:35] {@Threei}  someone was slow to read news?
[11:05] {dino} wynn drop
[11:06] {RonS} day 5 or 6?
[11:14] {dino} ?
01[11:15] {@Threei}  float up again
01[11:15] {@Threei}  watching IWM for pullback entry
01[11:20] {@Threei}  wow
01[11:20] {@Threei}  Mexican authorities say a 35-year-old Canadian woman died from injuries suffered when a surfacing gray whale crashed onto a tourist boat.
01[11:21] {@Threei}  seeing those things up close, I wonder how anyone survived in that boat
[11:21] {RonS} ..."but the picture she shot was amazing..."
01[11:21] {@Threei}  lol
01[11:24] {@Threei}  US equities have broken two days of losses and are making good gains in the first half of the trading day
01[11:24] {@Threei}  February retail sales declined 0.6%, missing expectations for a slight gain, with broad-based declines blamed on the coldest February in nearly 20 years. Auto sales declined 2.5%, ex autos and gas sales fell by 0.2%, electronics sales were down 1.2%, building materials sales fell 2.3%, and department store sales fell 1.4%. The initial weekly claims numbers fell to a three-week low.
01[11:24] {@Threei}  The euro crept below 1.0500 to the dollar during the Asia session for fresh 12-year lows while the dollar index briefly tested the 100 level for the first time since 2003.
01[11:25] {@Threei}  All major banks passed the Fed's CCAR capital review, although the Fed also did not approve two out of the 31 capital plans submitted. The Fed rejected capital plans of the US units of Deutsche Bank and Santander "on qualitative concerns."
01[11:26] {@Threei}  Intel cut its first quarter guidance thanks to lower chip inventories at PC manufacturers and the slowing desktop PC upgrade cycle. Intel also cited macroeconomic and currency effects. A broad swath of names were down 3% or more on the news; HPQ and STX both regained losses, while AMD and INTC were both still off 3% as of writing. Note also that there is speculation Intel may supply the LTE wireless modem chip for the iPhone in 2016, replacing a Qualcomm chip.
[11:32] {RonS} hotr busting a move
[11:46] {RonS} tough crowd...hotr is Hooters...
01[11:46] {@Threei}  lol
01[11:54] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .30 break
01[11:54] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
01[11:54] {@Threei}  very tight stop, lunch time
01[11:55] {@Threei}  meh
[11:57] {dino} acad sm l .14
01[12:03] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .70 break
01[12:03] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[12:08] {@Threei}  1:1
01[12:15] {@Threei}  Russia's relations with many Western nations, including the United States, may be at their worst levels since the Cold War, but its relationship with North Korea is blooming fast
01[12:15] {@Threei}  pssst... make sure you invite Zimbabwe to that union
[12:19] {dino} acad stop -.32
01[12:38] {@Threei}  LL Kase Capital (Tilson, short the name) calls comments made today by the company a continuation of their tactics of distraction and deception
01[13:12] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .45 break
01[13:12] {@Threei}  If holds  .35
01[13:19] {@Threei}  1:1
01[13:26] {@Threei}  market is glued to flat line
02[13:36] * Disconnected
Session Close: Thu Mar 12 13:36:02 2015

Session Start: Thu Mar 12 13:36:02 2015
Session Ident: #discussions
02[13:38] * Attempting to rejoin channel #discussions
03[13:38] * Rejoined channel #discussions
01[13:38] {Threei}  Lost internet
01[13:39] {Threei}  all of it
[13:39] {RonS} wow
01[13:39] {Threei}  but worry not... found it again
01[13:39] {Threei}  and I have spare one somewhere in the closet
01[13:49] {Threei}  Radio Liberty: The Internet thinks Putin is dead
01[13:49] {Threei}  I say Internet is overly optimistic
01[13:50] {Threei}  Russian President Vladimir Putin has not been seen in public since March 5.
01[13:50] {Threei}  And with little further information to go by -- his press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, said simply that there is "no reason to worry" and "everything is fine" -- some have naturally assumed the most drastic possible thing that could have happened is what did happen.
01[13:52] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .60 break
01[13:52] {Threei}  If holds  .50
01[13:53] {Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .70 break
01[13:53] {Threei}  If holds  .60
01[13:54] {Threei}  Twitter is merciless:
01[13:54] {Threei}  -Putin can't die.
01[13:54] {Threei}  -Why?
01[13:54] {Threei}  -It's not profitable.
01[13:56] {Threei}  FB is aggressive for all-out .80 break
01[13:58] {Threei}  SPY 3 cents from day high
01[13:58] {Threei}  ugh... stop this pullback nonsense, just break it
01[13:59] {Threei}  (US) Preview: Jan Monthly Budget Statement due out at 14:00ET (18:00 GMT)- Consensus expectations: -$191.0Be v -$193.5B prior
01[13:59] {Threei}  *(US) FEB MONTHLY BUDGET STATEMENT: -$192.3B V -$191.0BE
01[14:00] {Threei}  1:1  FB
01[14:15] {Threei}  JUST NOW: The minimum wage in BC will increase to $10.45 in September, up from $10.25.
01[14:15] {Threei}  yay...
01[14:16] {Threei}  wait... no one pays me
01[14:26] {Threei}  1:1  IWM
[14:30] {dino} zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
01[14:30] {Threei}  amazingly boring day
01[14:30] {Threei}  every trade is like pulling teeth
01[14:31] {Threei}  I like those down days much more... this slow grind-up is painfully, well, slow
[14:34] {dino} same here 3i, my best days are big gap downs
[14:39] {dino} nemo would have told me at open to go back to bed
01[14:41] {Threei}  to be fair, he tells it to everyone, and then lets males out
01[15:00] {Threei}  FB really goes now
01[15:08] {Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .80 break
01[15:08] {Threei}  If holds  .75
01[15:10] {Threei}  Invalidated
01[15:10] {Threei}  for now
01[15:19] {Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .75 break
01[15:19] {Threei}  If holds  .65
01[15:26] {Threei}  Invalidated
01[15:28] {Threei}  there has to be some pullback here
01[15:33] {Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .90 break
01[15:34] {Threei}  If holds  .80
01[15:39] {Threei}  let's go FB, give us last trade of the day
01[15:39] {Threei}  and make it a good one
01[15:44] {Threei}  1:1
[15:45] {RonS} good enough for me...so...taking tomorrow and monday off still?
01[15:46] {Threei}  and tues, as dino is back on wexd
01[15:46] {Threei}  wed
01[15:46] {Threei}  little vacation
[15:47] {RonS} ok...have fun dino and be safe
01[15:47] {Threei}  so... enjoy a few days off, and see you on Wed
01[15:47] {Threei}  dino, you have fun and safe trip
01[15:47] {Threei}  and get some suntan, this pasty look is unbecoming
06[15:48] * Threei kicks FB in the rear
[15:49] {dino} lol and thanks. see you on wednesday
01[15:49] {Threei}  :)
01[15:49] {Threei}  konoby, got any questions before we take a break till Wed?
01[15:56] {Threei}  OK, closing FB
01[15:56] {Threei}  slighly positive and horribly boring day
01[15:56] {Threei}  see you Wed!
[15:59] {dino} gn all

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Mar 11 2015

Very nice morning, nice closing, and a whole lot of invalidated trades inbetween, as market flopped around with no pattern. Decent day all in all.

Session Time: Wed Mar 11 00:00:00 2015
[09:13] {dino} gm
01[09:13] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:17] {RonS} hi guys
01[09:17] {@Threei}  ron :)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  dollar will never stop
01[09:23] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -MELA +66% (disclosed the AMA's CPT panel accepted additional codes applying to MelaFind system)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -GSAT +12% (successfully completes TLPS demonstration at the FCC)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -GCA +8% (earnings)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -ONVO +4% (clarifies launch of exVive3D has gone as expected)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -SNDK +3% (positive broker commentary)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -TSEM +2.5% (accelerating conversion of Series F convertible notes)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -PAY +2% (earnings)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -HABT -7% (earnings)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -WB -6% (earnings)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -SXL -5.2% (hearing 13.5M secondary priced at $41.76/shr)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -ZGNX -3.6% (earnings)
01[09:23] {@Threei}  -MA -2% (sells 12.8M shares in secondary offering)
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .60 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[09:32] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:2
[09:34] {RonS} good one out .85 ty
01[09:34] {@Threei}  :)
01[09:43] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MCD  .60 break
01[09:43] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[09:44] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:49] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MCD  .40 break
01[09:49] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:50] {@Threei}  to .34
01[09:51] {@Threei}  ,eh
01[09:51] {@Threei}  m
01[09:56] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .50 break
01[09:56] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
[09:57] {dino} safm sm l .12
[09:57] {dino} casy sm l ave .83
[09:59] {RonS} Suspected bird flu in Arkansas poultry threatens exports
01[09:59] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:01] {dino} ty ron, saw that
[10:02] {RonS} np
01[10:08] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .30 break
01[10:08] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
[10:14] {dino} tight range
01[10:18] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  78 break
01[10:18] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
[10:21] {dino} juno drop
01[10:21] {@Threei}  change to .90
01[10:21] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[10:22] {@Threei}  if loses .80, not interested until frops to .60
01[10:22] {@Threei}  d
01[10:25] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:26] {@Threei}  1:2
[10:27] {dino} bidu blood
01[10:29] {@Threei}  Merkel declines Putin's invite for World War Two commemoration in Moscow
01[10:29] {@Threei}  wow... that's serious rift
01[10:30] {@Threei}  70 years anniversary
[10:30] {dino} good
01[10:30] {@Threei}  yup... open slap in the face
01[10:31] {@Threei}  and from Germany who was their major ally in Europe for many years
[10:31] {cosmo} but they were on different sides then...right?
[10:31] {cosmo} WWII
01[10:32] {@Threei}  I am talking about Putin times
01[10:32] {@Threei}  in WW2, yes, lol
[10:32] {cosmo} yea... i was thinking 'tradition'
01[10:33] {@Threei}  but today's Germany doesn't take position "we were enemies" - rather it's "we were under insane ruler and are deeply ashamed"
01[10:33] {@Threei}  (GR) Greece said to face opposiiton at ECB on further ELA funding increases
01[10:34] {@Threei}  Russia says has right to deploy nuclear weapons in Crimea
[10:38] {dino} while obummer pulled them out
[10:39] {cosmo} ..of where?  
[10:39] {cosmo} Turkey?
[10:43] {dino} just saying he was caught on tape telling putin he would work on missle withdrawals after elections
[10:43] {cosmo} hmm
[10:44] {cosmo} he talks like that sometimes...
[10:48] {RonS} sm l tsn 38.07
01[10:51] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .10 break
01[10:51] {@Threei}  If holds  120
[10:53] {RonS} tsn stop +.02  serious distribution going on w/ the news tsn says no bird flu in their flocks
01[10:53] {@Threei}  1:1
[11:04] {RonS} sm l hfc 38.22
01[11:09] {@Threei}  1:2
01[11:09] {@Threei}  forgot to post, lol
[11:10] {RonS} hfc to .52
[11:15] {RonS} hfc stopped on trail .62 +.40
01[11:15] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  78 break
01[11:15] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
[11:16] {RonS} wow trn
[11:17] {RonS} TRN cleared of cover-up
[11:17] {RonS} never knew they were covered...
01[11:20] {@Threei}  lol
01[11:21] {@Threei}  ok... am I crazy or half of internet... everyone admires this guy and think he is so awesome... to me, he is in last stage of senile marasmic: https://scontent-sea.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/11010982_1200949696601148_1074481324815870218_n.jpg?oh=202fc6da3e39d6a342341ba1e6c9cfe0&oe=55766FA9
01[11:23] {@Threei}  change FB to .90 break if holds .80
01[11:24] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[11:29] {@Threei}  should have changed to .80
[11:30] {dino} out vxx calls from last week, +.40/14%
[11:32] {RonS} gj...but thinking too early...big bets came on yesterday that vix goes to 20
[11:32] {dino} maybe so, but in jamaica fri-tues, and qe europe starts monday.
[11:33] {RonS} yep
[11:33] {dino} but who knows, i figured book the gain
[11:36] {RonS} should change name to danno then? so we could say "book 'em danno"
[11:36] {dino} roflol
01[11:36] {@Threei}  lol
01[11:37] {@Threei}  fri-tues? that brief?
01[11:38] {@Threei}  ron, want to take a double-long weekend too while dino is getting his well-deserved suntan? :)
[11:38] {RonS} ya, one toke on the reefers they have down there and you will be asleep that long...
[11:38] {dino} yeah, unfortunately. my wife could only get 3 personal days off
[11:39] {dino} turning 50 down there
[11:39] {RonS} 3i, sounds good to me...
01[11:39] {@Threei}  cool... dino won't be jealous that we make all the money without him
[11:40] {dino} have at it
[11:40] {dino} would expect nothing less
01[11:44] {@Threei}  grrr... FB got away
01[11:47] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .30 break
01[11:47] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[11:52] {@Threei}  change to .40 break
01[11:52] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
01[11:53] {@Threei}  (UK) UK parliament approve laws banning branding on cigarette packs
01[11:54] {@Threei}  wow, really? Just "cigarettes"?
01[11:55] {@Threei}  "what are you smoking, mallboro or camel?" - "dunno, it says cigarettes"
[11:56] {RonS} cigs themselves will be branded...
[11:56] {RonS} ...and the cartons
01[11:56] {@Threei}  speaking of... 6 years this month since I quit
[11:58] {dino} wt5g
[11:58] {dino} wtg
01[11:58] {@Threei}  ty
01[11:58] {@Threei}  The euro has slipped futher this morning, with EUR/USD dropping to 1.0560 earlier, a fresh 12-year low. The euro has lost nearly 10% of its value versus the dollar since the ECB announced in January that it would undertake QE. EUR/GBP dropped through the key psychological level of 1.5000. With dollar parity only a matter of time, ECB's Nowotny said he was nervous there may be too much success with QE.
01[11:59] {@Threei}  Dollar strength is only making life harder for oil, even as inventory builds take a breather. WTI crude dipped below $47.50 in the wake of the DOE weekly inventory report mid-morning before rising back toward $48. The front month Brent contract was as low as $56.00 earlier today, bounced higher then dipped back toward $56.
01[12:00] {@Threei}  The fallout from the oil collapse is claiming yet another victim. Whiting Petroleum, the largest producer in North Dakota's Bakken shale, has reportedly put itself up for sale. This is only the first of what many analysts expect to be a wave of sector consolidation. Many suggest the likeliest takeover candidates include Continental, Apache, Devon Energy and Anadarko Petroleum.
01[12:05] {@Threei}  1:1
[12:15] {RonS} USDA announce that the earlier reports of a H5N2 strain of bird flu in Arkansas are true
[12:16] {RonS} fema sending kleenex?
01[12:19] {@Threei}  lol
01[12:20] {@Threei}  [BBRY] Ticking higher on renewed vague reports that Samsung remains interested in acquiring the company
[12:32] {RonS} CSU's Michelbach says Germany to defend itself if Greece confiscates assets -- Handelsblatt
01[12:38] {@Threei}  defend...
01[12:39] {@Threei}  words are wonderful thing eh?
[13:08] {RonS} slxp gone pulp over endo bid...affecting vrx too
01[13:08] {@Threei}  SLXP CNBC's Faber: Offer was recently provided to SLXP, and would be a combination of cash and stock; ENDP has committed financing from two banks
[13:08] {RonS} endp symbol
[13:10] {RonS}  CNBC's Faber says Endo (ENDP) has offered $165/shr for Salix Pharmaceuticals (SLXP) (sq)
[13:17] {dino} out casy .73, +.85
01[13:20] {@Threei}  wtg
[13:29] {dino} ty
01[13:31] {@Threei}  EUR/USD Sets fresh session lows at 1.0553
[13:42] {RonS} eur new lod
[13:44] {RonS} endp halt
[13:45] {RonS} slxp halt
01[13:45] {@Threei}  yeah, news pending
01[13:55] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .20 break
01[14:05] {@Threei}  nope
01[14:14] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .75 break
01[14:14] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
01[14:16] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[14:18] {RonS} anip spike
01[14:27] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .90 break
01[14:27] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[14:43] {@Threei}  mess... everything invalidates
[14:45] {RonS} hyh spike
[14:53] {dino} smr s .62
01[14:58] {@Threei}  .90 breask again, FB
01[14:58] {@Threei}  nice C&H shapes up
01[14:58] {@Threei}  if holds .80 of course
01[15:06] {@Threei}  come on already, break
01[15:06] {@Threei}  while dino is not 50
[15:07] {dino} hyh bs to be
01[15:09] {@Threei}  sigh... invalidated again
01[15:09] {@Threei}  anniying
01[15:09] {@Threei}  o
[15:10] {RonS} NSR ++ major cover up job by FCC  ------ Neustar claims FCC acted illegally in review of lucrative phone database contract & then tried to cover it up: POLITICO (source)
01[15:16] {@Threei}  they would never
01[15:16] {@Threei}  right?
01[15:20] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .22 break
01[15:20] {@Threei}  If holds  .13
01[15:24] {@Threei}  12,000 people leave Donbas since late January
01[15:24] {@Threei}  these are the slow ones
[15:28] {RonS} $TSN buyer on weakness, 4910 Mar15 $37 C  $1.15
01[15:28] {@Threei}  half out
01[15:28] {@Threei}  1:1
01[15:29] {@Threei}  got this one right :)
[15:30] {RonS} yep
01[15:31] {@Threei}  1:2
[15:38] {dino} gj
01[15:39] {@Threei}  ty
01[15:41] {@Threei}  Russian blogosphere is full of speculations about President Putin's state of health. His visit to Kazakhstan was canceled today with reference to temporary sickness, and online community realized that Putin hasn't been seen since March 6
01[15:41] {@Threei}  hmmm... can we be that lucky?
[15:42] {dino} no
01[15:46] {@Threei}  decent day, no more pushing
01[15:46] {@Threei}  have a great evening guys, see you tomorrow



Tuesday, March 10, 2015

Mar 10 2015

Positive day, slow for the most part. Mostly made by just couple nice trades, the rest was trading jabs.

Session Time: Tue Mar 10 00:00:00 2015
[09:22] {dino} gm
01[09:22] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:22] {RonS} ditto
01[09:22] {@Threei}  ron :)
01[09:33] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .50 break
01[09:33] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[09:33] {@Threei}  change to .40 break
01[09:33] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:35] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:37] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .90 break
01[09:37] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[09:38] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:38] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:38] {@Threei}  1:3
01[09:41] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:41] {@Threei}  -RESN +7% (announced engaged a second customer)
01[09:41] {@Threei}  -URBN +6.6% (earnings)
01[09:41] {@Threei}  -QIHU +3% (earnings)
01[09:41] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:41] {@Threei}  -ADHD -19% (MDX met primary endpoint in Phase 2 safety & tolerability study)
01[09:41] {@Threei}  -TITN -15% (guided Q4 down)
01[09:41] {@Threei}  -CLMT -8% (priced 6M unit secondary at $26.75/shr)
01[09:41] {@Threei}  -UNFI -8% (earnings)
01[09:41] {@Threei}  -AKRX -7% (reaffirms FY15 EPS, Rev; negative broker commentary)
01[09:41] {@Threei}  -CPE -6.8% (priced 9M shares for gross proceeds of $59M)
01[09:41] {@Threei}  -ROSE -6% (hearing 12M secondary priced at $17.20/shr)
01[09:41] {@Threei}  -XON -5% (earnings)
01[09:41] {@Threei}  -RMGN -5% (no news)
01[09:44] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .90 break
01[09:44] {@Threei}  deja vu
01[09:44] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:54] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .50 break
01[09:54] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[09:56] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:06] {RonS} silly mallard pair waddling up and down the cement sidewalk on the greenbelt next to my house...too cute
01[10:07] {@Threei}  lol
01[10:09] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .20 break
01[10:09] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[10:11] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:12] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .10 break
01[10:12] {@Threei}  If holds  120
01[10:13] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:15] {@Threei}  wow... market can't hold it together at all today
[10:20] {RonS} dino, missed casy early but they had an earnings beat w/ a rev miss which was gas... they sold more of the other crap...sheesh
01[10:25] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .10 break
01[10:25] {@Threei}  If holds  78
[10:27] {dino} on it
01[10:32] {@Threei}  IWM is valid again
01[10:33] {@Threei}  .20 break long
01[10:33] {@Threei}  very nice resistance to take, might be on and off a few times
01[10:34] {@Threei}  (UR) US DoD Official: US is still actively looking at ways to possibly provide Ukraine with weapons
01[10:34] {@Threei}  get a president with balls?
[10:34] {dino} really, how hard is it
01[10:37] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .75 break
01[10:37] {@Threei}  If holds  .65
01[10:40] {@Threei}  no go
01[10:44] {@Threei}  Poll: Russians believe relations with Ukraine to improve in several years
01[10:44] {@Threei}  You might want to stop shooting at them for that to start happening
[10:48] {dino} casy sm l .00 giving it some room
[10:50] {dino} 07 green
[10:54] {dino} added wday calls
01[10:55] {@Threei}  frikin IWM got away
01[10:55] {@Threei}  that same .20 break
[10:56] {dino} out casy 85.24, +2.24
[10:56] {RonS} wtg
[10:56] {dino} ty
01[10:56] {@Threei}  nice one
[10:56] {dino} things probably going green
[10:57] {RonS} well, maybe 88
[11:11] {dino} damn, continues up
[11:13] {RonS} less low margin gas, more high margin slim jims = 35% earnings beat
[11:14] {RonS} will leave to you dino to explain to 3i what the hell a slim jim is...
[11:15] {RonS} lol...http://www.slimjim.com/products/?utm_source=Bing&utm_medium=cpc&utm_content=Branded&utm_term=slim%2520jim&utm_campaign=Branded_Search_Branded_Exact
01[11:16] {@Threei}  hmmm
01[11:16] {@Threei}  that helps
[11:16] {dino} lol, meat (in a sense), more like parts
01[11:16] {@Threei}  yeah, googled it :)
[11:17] {RonS} big NASCAR sponsor
[11:18] {RonS} NASCAR generates the most loyal customer fan base on earth...statistical fact
01[11:20] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .40 breakj
01[11:20] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[11:40] {@Threei}  Dollar strength is a major theme this week, and today EUR/USD is testing 12-year lows around 1.0750 while USD/JPY hit an eight-year high above 122. The dollar index is above 98 and looking ready to pop right over 100.
01[11:41] {@Threei}  Crude briefly tested below $49.50 while European equities were down sharply on FX concerns. Sovereign yields in Germany, France, Italy and Spain fell to record lows, while the US 10-year yield fell five basis points to 2.142%.
01[11:55] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .70 break
01[11:55] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[12:00] {@Threei}  1:1
01[12:02] {@Threei}  1:2
[12:03] {RonS} good one
01[12:03] {@Threei}  ty
01[12:30] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .70 break
01[12:30] {@Threei}  If holds  .65
01[12:33] {@Threei}  1:1
[12:35] {RonS} acad squeeze
[12:43] {dino} wow
01[12:50] {@Threei}  (SA) Saudi Arabia King Salman: oil and gas exploration will continue even with decline in oil prices
01[12:54] {@Threei} Short Setup: USO  .85 break
01[12:54] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
[12:57] {RonS} stepped out...meantime casy 83.10 to 87.88 +4.78
[12:58] {dino} wtg
[12:59] {RonS} hit the 88 bingo but have habit of missing target by 12 cents...
[13:07] {RonS} Deutsche Bank says the euro is going to $0.85
01[13:08] {@Threei}  0 is more like it
[13:10] {RonS} DEUTSCHE BANK: The S&P could fall 9%
01[13:35] {@Threei}  OK... I give up
01[13:36] {@Threei}  why 9?
01[13:36] {@Threei}  why not 8 or 10?
[13:39] {RonS} Hearing ACAD canceled out of conference (unconfirmed)
01[13:39] {@Threei}  ACAD Hearing strength attributed to reports it cancelled from an upcoming conference appearance
[13:40] {RonS} confirmed
[13:45] {RonS} casy still swinging...
01[14:12] {@Threei}  -Sales of petroleum and petroleum products were down 13.5% from December
01[14:12] {@Threei}  even at these prices
01[14:12] {@Threei}  case for even lower ones is made, isn't it
[14:15] {dino} y
01[14:20] {@Threei}  Britain may broadcast the financial secrets of Russia's ruling elite as part of the information war against the Putin regime, the Foreign Secretary has indicated. Philip Hammond said he was interested by the idea of publicising the wealth of the Russian president’s inner circle in order to embarrass them in front of their people
[14:21] {RonS} how will they hear it?
[14:21] {RonS} zoes roughed up
01[14:21] {@Threei}  zoes?
[14:24] {RonS} restaurant stock
01[14:25] {@Threei}  oh, that was symbol
01[14:25] {@Threei}  lol... I connected second line to first
[14:26] {RonS} wix flaming
[14:40] {RonS} expr cruising
[14:41] {RonS} cybr springs leak
[14:43] {RonS} lol...Yup, #Zoolander made an appearance at Paris Fashion Week http://bloom.bg/1EScAGg
01[14:48] {@Threei}  sheesh
01[14:48] {@Threei}  how do I unsee that
01[14:49] {@Threei}  uh oh:
01[14:49] {@Threei}  (CA) Canada Fin Oliver: there is no housing bubble but the market will be continued to be monitored closely
[14:49] {RonS} rotflol
[14:50] {dino} odd, vxx +.94 only
01[15:00] {@Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .40 break
01[15:00] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[15:13] {@Threei}  valid
01[15:23] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .65 break
01[15:23] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
01[15:28] {@Threei}  ummm... .55 of course
01[15:34] {@Threei}  GLD invalidated, IWM no go
01[15:40] {@Threei}  GLD, .45 break short
01[15:40] {@Threei}  last scalp attempt
01[15:46] {@Threei}  lose .40 and die
01[15:48] {@Threei}  More Russian tanks, equipment cross Ukraine border - Nuland
01[15:48] {@Threei}  ceasefire is merely an opportunity to restock
[15:50] {RonS} always has been...
01[15:50] {@Threei}  yeah
01[15:51] {@Threei}  meanwhile, 120 US tanks are delivered in Latvia
01[15:51] {@Threei}  which has no need in that many on most scenarios
01[15:51] {@Threei}  so militry analysts say that's preparation for arming Ukraine
[15:51] {RonS} but a days supply w/ full invasion
01[15:52] {@Threei}  ROF, twitter
01[15:52] {@Threei}  "Hillary’s rap name is 2 Phonez"
01[15:54] {@Threei}  ok... scratching GLD
01[15:54] {@Threei}  have a good evening, guys, see you tomorrow
[15:56] {dino} gn all

Monday, March 9, 2015

Mar 09 2015

Decent day with enough of good trades to make one's peace with everything but the time change to DST. Other than that, no complaints.


Session Time: Mon Mar 09 00:00:00 2015
[09:16] {dino} gm
01[09:16] {@Threei}  dino :)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  can't tell you how much I hate this time change
[09:19] {RonS} gm...regardless any future snow or blizzards spring has started here...finally...
01[09:19] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:22] {dino} ron, , was -3 friday night, today a toasty 30
01[09:31] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .80 break
01[09:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:32] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:32] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:32] {@Threei}  1:4
01[09:32] {@Threei}  out
[09:32] {dino} gj
01[09:32] {@Threei}  ty
01[09:32] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:32] {@Threei}  -RTI +42% (being acquired by AA for $42/sh)
01[09:32] {@Threei}  -PNK +25% (received offer from GLPI to acquire real estate assets)
01[09:32] {@Threei}  -RMGN +14% (prelim earnings)
01[09:32] {@Threei}  -OPXA +11% (modified agreement with Merck Serono and received additional $3M payment to support ongoing development of Tcelna)
01[09:32] {@Threei}  -WLL +11% (reportedly seeking to sell itself following recent decline in oil)
01[09:32] {@Threei}  -CTIC +8% (announced positive results from Phase 3 Persist-1 trial of pacritinib)
01[09:32] {@Threei}  -MOBI +4.6% (earnings)
01[09:32] {@Threei}  -MAC +4.5% (SPG confirms offer to acquire company at $91/shr)
01[09:32] {@Threei}  -WUBA +4.2% (acquired minority stake in interior decoration service platform To8to)
01[09:33] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:33] {@Threei}  -ACRX -41% (regulatory update on Zalviso)
01[09:33] {@Threei}  -AA -4% (acquiring RTI for $41/sh)
01[09:33] {@Threei}  -MCD -1% (Feb sales)
[09:33] {RonS} bita pulp
01[09:36] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .30 break
01[09:36] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[09:39] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:42] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MCD  98 break
01[09:42] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:44] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[09:50] {dino} added bita calls
01[09:52] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .20 break
01[09:52] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:55] {@Threei}  no go
01[09:58] {@Threei}  no day is complete without Greece
01[09:58] {@Threei}  (EU) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble: Not a lot has happened recently with Greece though it will be a main topic at Eurogroup discussion - Dijsselbloem: France has not done much on economic reforms, will support Greece if it continues its reform efforts- will not be discussing Varoufakis' latest letter
01[09:58] {@Threei}  why, is there some indecent proposal in it?
01[09:59] {@Threei} Long Setup:  JPM  .10 break
01[09:59] {@Threei}  If holds  61
[10:00] {dino} bita sm l .80
01[10:05] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MCD  .90 break
01[10:05] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[10:08] {@Threei}  1:1  JPM
01[10:09] {@Threei}  to .84 MCD
01[10:09] {@Threei}  touched 1:1 for a sec
01[10:11] {@Threei}  half out MCD
01[10:11] {@Threei}  and stop to .89
01[10:11] {@Threei}  closed
01[10:11] {@Threei}  just in time
01[10:20] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .55 break
01[10:20] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
01[10:21] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:23] {@Threei}  valid again
01[10:29] {@Threei}  [FSLR] Hearing vague takeover chatter circulating
[10:31] {dino} out bita 62.74, +1.94
[10:31] {dino} ty ron for idea
01[10:31] {@Threei}  wtg
[10:31] {RonS} gj
[10:32] {dino} ty
01[10:34] {@Threei}  https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/78/4c/07/784c0738474eeae5527fec872741aeb4.jpg
[10:37] {RonS} jf +10?
01[10:37] {@Threei}  lol
01[10:38] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .10 break
01[10:38] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
[10:39] {RonS} may jf's older brother since he acts like jf...
[10:39] {RonS} +be
01[10:39] {@Threei}  or offspring of jf and dp
[10:39] {RonS} lol
01[10:39] {@Threei}  die FB
01[10:41] {@Threei}  no go
01[10:47] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .40 break
01[10:47] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[10:50] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:09] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .05 break
01[11:09] {@Threei}  If holds  .15
[11:11] {RonS} lol... Euro-area finance ministers to Greece: “We have to stop wasting time” http://bloom.bg/1BYGOH3
01[11:13] {@Threei}  Greece: "we?" WE have all the time WE need. Zeus will come to our help woth his lightings if needed
[11:13] {dino} nsr spike
01[11:16] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[11:19] {@Threei}  valid again
01[11:21] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:25] {@Threei}  - US stock markets looked to bounce back from Friday's sell off and have done so modestly in the early going. Various other assets classes have also either reversed course marginally or stabilized within recent trends. The Dollar Index is essentially flat after losing some ground in overnight trade while US Bond prices have stabilized.
01[11:25] {@Threei}  Gold prices have gained some ground on the pause in the Dollar rally. WTI crude continues to churn around the $50 mark.
01[11:45] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .50 break
01[11:46] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
[12:04] {dino} bita sm l .20
[12:08] {dino} out bita 60, +.40
01[12:08] {@Threei}  hmmm
01[12:08] {@Threei}  4 minutes work, 40 cents,
[12:08] {dino} pulp
01[12:08] {@Threei}  comes to 10 cents a minute
01[12:09] {@Threei}  or 600 cents an hour
[12:09] {dino} i wish
01[12:09] {@Threei}  by 500 shares, $300/h
01[12:09] {@Threei}  can you fo that for 8 hours straight? :)
01[12:10] {@Threei}  do
01[12:10] {@Threei}  with lunch break, about $2.000/day
01[12:11] {@Threei}  40,000 a month
01[12:11] {@Threei}  man... dino must be stopped
[12:15] {dino} lol
01[12:17] {@Threei}  frikin FB rinsed second half
01[12:17] {@Threei}  dropping like prom dress now
[12:21] {dino} cybr drop
01[12:42] {@Threei}  Vladimir Putin has described the moment he claims to have ordered the incorporation of Crimea into the Russian Federation. Details of the overnight meeting came to light in a forthcoming documentary.
01[12:43] {@Threei}  hmmm... so it's not "ah, they decided to join us and voted for that in referendum" anymore?
01[13:09] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .65 break
01[13:09] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[13:37] {@Threei}  for dino: 20 Signs You Desperately Need a Warm-Weather Vacation
01[13:37] {@Threei}  http://www.cosmopolitan.com/lifestyle/a37476/signs-you-need-holiday/
[13:40] {RonS} bita off more than it can chew...
01[13:40] {@Threei}  hehe
01[13:40] {@Threei}  not bad
[13:58] {dino} thats why i'm taking one
[13:58] {dino} bita sm l .12
01[14:09] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .55 break
01[14:17] {@Threei}  McDonald’s warned it faced an "urgent" need to change in an attempt to win back customers as it reported a drop in monthly sales that was much larger than expected.
01[14:18] {@Threei}  change comes from wihin... if there is nothing within but crappy burgers...
[14:18] {cosmo} vegiburgers would be nice...
[14:18] {cosmo} real vegies
[14:19] {cosmo} no cardboard, etc
[14:27] {dino} out bita 43, +.31
01[14:28] {@Threei}  1:1  VXX
01[14:28] {@Threei}  forgot to post at the time
[14:38] {RonS} appl cored
01[14:38] {@Threei}  lol
[14:39] {RonS} appl runs out of time...
[14:39] {dino} csiq drop
01[14:55] {@Threei}  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bU1QPtOZQZU
01[15:16] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .80 break
01[15:16] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[15:24] {@Threei}  change to .70 break
01[15:30] {@Threei}  stop .64
01[15:31] {@Threei}  1:1
01[15:36] {@Threei}  1:2
01[15:45] {@Threei}  I guss no need to push on last minutes, decent day as it is
01[15:45] {@Threei}  thank you, have a great evening
01[15:45] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:48] {dino} same here