Mar 04 2015

Nice strong day again, with 1:4s and 1:2s, and couple smallish stops.


Session Time: Wed Mar 04 00:00:00 2015
[09:10] {dino} gm, the cold weather continues. had 8 inches snow sunday, 6 inches last night, and calling for 4 inches tonight. we are over 70 inches this year, and we average 48 inches.
01[09:11] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:16] {RonS} gm...Feb broke snow record here 24 in, got another 3 last night...we average 60 but half of that usually comes mar/apr when the sun comes the next day...now cloudy and 11...
01[09:17] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:18] {dino} first day here above 20s since mid january
[09:18] {RonS} veev hooked a bunch...drilled over a purchase...no touch here
[09:27] {RonS} veev...might try around $26 if later in the day
01[09:29] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -CNDO +30% (entered collaboration agreement with TGTX)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -W +19% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -LXRX +13% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -SWHC +10% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -AEO +9% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -AMBA +8% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -TIVO +6.3% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -TSL +3.3% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -BOBE -20% (earnings; negative broker commentary)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -TNET -17% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -BV -15% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -VEEV -13% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -ANF -6.7% (earnings - comments on CEO search)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -CYTX -4% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -AA -2.7% (premarket downgrade)
01[09:31] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .80 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:32] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:32] {@Threei}  in a blink of eye
01[09:32] {@Threei}  1:2
[09:33] {jfjf64} Mornin
01[09:33] {@Threei}  jf :)
01[09:34] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .85 break
01[09:34] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:38] {jfjf64} Iwm 122 break
01[09:38] {@Threei}  nah
01[09:38] {@Threei}  VXX time still
01[09:39] {@Threei}  1:2
[09:39] {jfjf64} Yes
[09:39] {jfjf64} My bad there
01[09:39] {@Threei}  1:3
[09:39] {jfjf64} Nice
06[09:40] * @Threei slaps jfjf64 around a bit with a large roll of cash
[09:40] {jfjf64} Pls do
[09:41] {jfjf64} Sbux .40 break
[09:43] {jfjf64} Nope
01[09:45] {@Threei}  *(US) FEB FINAL MARKIT SERVICES PMI: 57.1 V 57.0E
01[09:46] {@Threei}  closed VXX at 1:4
01[09:46] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .90 break
01[09:46] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[09:47] {@Threei}  change to .85
01[09:47] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
01[09:47] {@Threei}  bounce time
[09:48] {jfjf64} Did I ever tell you I hate subs coffee
[09:48] {jfjf64} Sbux
01[09:48] {@Threei}  yes, and I violently agreed with you
[09:49] {jfjf64} Star Wars and sbux
[09:49] {jfjf64} New I liked ya vg
[09:50] {dino} added veev calls
01[09:50] {@Threei}  no go
[09:50] {jfjf64} Morni Dino
[09:51] {dino} gm
01[09:52] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MCD  40 break
01[09:52] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
[09:53] {jfjf64} Iwm .80
[09:56] {dino} f%#k, missed true gap fill
01[09:56] {@Threei}  IWM rinse
[09:59] {jfjf64} She got me early she owes me
01[09:59] {@Threei}  you in?
[10:00] {jfjf64} Y
01[10:00] {@Threei}  [EUR/USD] Moves below 1.1100 for a fresh 11 year low
[10:00] {jfjf64} Love mcd here
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) FEB ISM NON-MANUFACTURING COMPOSITE: 56.9 V 56.5E
[10:00] {jfjf64} .25
01[10:01] {@Threei}  [MCD] Confirms McDonald's USA Announces New Antibiotics Policy and Menu Sourcing Initiatives Actions Are Part of Company's Global Commitment to Address Customers' Changing Expectations and Preferences
[10:01] {jfjf64} Yikes
[10:01] {cosmo} they should buy out sbux
[10:02] {jfjf64} Out ism
[10:02] {jfjf64} Iwm
01[10:02] {@Threei}  wtg
[10:02] {jfjf64} In mcd 26
01[10:02] {@Threei}  to wash down crappy burger with crappy coffee?
[10:03] {jfjf64} Tight stop ofcours
[10:04] {cosmo} i hear sbux uses coconut milk now
01[10:05] {@Threei}  which changes nothing about coffee
01[10:05] {@Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .55 break
01[10:05] {@Threei}  If holds  .65
[10:05] {cosmo} i take mine at room temperature in an I.V.
[10:06] {cosmo} home made of course
[10:07] {jfjf64} Out mcd
01[10:07] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:08] {jfjf64} Was watching cce got caught up in shit burger
[10:10] {jfjf64} Fb s .75
[10:11] {jfjf64} No go
01[10:24] {@Threei}  die FCX
[10:25] {jfjf64} Die baby
[10:26] {jfjf64} Today you become teenager
01[10:26] {@Threei}  lol
01[10:26] {@Threei}  1:2
[10:26] {dino} lol
01[10:29] {@Threei}  oil inventories
01[10:30] {@Threei}  *(US) DOE CRUDE: +10.3M V +4.5ME
01[10:30] {@Threei}  oh boy
[10:32] {jfjf64} Cop
[10:32] {jfjf64} Xop
[10:33] {jfjf64} May be help FCC
[10:33] {jfjf64} Fcx
01[10:37] {@Threei}  jf switched into mode "drop by, share a nugget of wisdom, get out"
01[10:38] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:48] {@Threei}  1:4 baby
01[10:48] {@Threei}  I am out
[10:57] {dino} gj
01[10:57] {@Threei}  ty
01[10:58] {@Threei}  (US) Justice Kennedy comments that there is a serious constitutional problem with the legal challenge to Obamacare - press **NOTE: Kennedy votes center-right on the Court and is often a swing voter. The Supreme Court is hearing the case challenging aspects of the healthcare law today and a decision is expected mid-year
[11:00] {RonS} ...if there was a problem they would not have accepted the case
[11:01] {RonS} don't understand what he is saying
01[11:01] {@Threei}  neither do I
[11:05] {RonS} besides, they shouldn't be commenting on a live case, before the ruling
01[11:22] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .20 break
01[11:23] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:26] {@Threei}  Pessimist sleeps with a knife under the pillow. Optimist does, too - in case someone comes to visit with a cake
[11:27] {dino} i like the book one better
01[11:29] {@Threei}  book one?
[11:31] {dino} a pessimist sells books, the optimist makes money
01[11:31] {@Threei}  :)
[11:34] {dino} 07 fast green
01[11:46] {@Threei}  The February ADP report was pretty strong, with another reading over 200K, just shy of expectations, and a big revision of the January reading to 250K from 213K prior. The annual benchmark revisions significantly boosted the numbers from all of 2014. The consensus estimate for Friday's February non-farm payrolls is around 240K, and the average gap between the ADP and BLS readings has been around 37K, suggesting the jobs report will remain in line with recent readings.
[11:48] {dino} rhi drop
[11:49] {dino} sm l .28
[11:50] {RonS} which dollar?
01[11:51] {@Threei}  hehe
[11:51] {dino} 61
[11:52] {dino} stop .00 brk
01[11:58] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .80 break
01[11:58] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
[12:05] {dino} ocul spike
[12:05] {dino} out rhi flat, wont move
[12:11] {RonS} hearing that kennedy questioning came during the trial...all the hospital stocks rallied on it
[12:12] {RonS} ...as if he is the only person there...
01[12:32] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .0 breeak
01[12:32] {@Threei}  .10
01[12:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
[12:37] {RonS} wtf...they already observe all the Jewish and ChrisitanNew York City will close schools to observe 2 Muslim holidays http://bloom.bg/1aLwBDw   holidays...pretty soon...no school:
[12:38] {RonS} lol screwed that up
01[12:38] {@Threei}  add chinese new year, anfd half of scool year is gone
[12:54] {dino} ll drop
[12:55] {RonS} CNBC app has just reported top US senator has requested investigation in Lumber Liquidators"
[12:57] {RonS} tweet says: if it works on dead bodies, why not on flooring...
[12:59] {dino} lol
01[12:59] {@Threei}  lol
[13:08] {dino} ll again
[13:18] {RonS} Russia accuses U.S. of plot to oust Putin http://bloom.bg/1CwMyJn
01[13:19] {@Threei}  and Europe - of putting their library on fire
01[13:19] {@Threei}  and Ukraine - of killing Nemtsov, with help of "anglo-sax"
01[13:20] {@Threei}  they are in business of accusing
01[13:42] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VCC  .65 break
01[13:42] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[13:42] {@Threei}  VXX
01[13:56] {@Threei}  1:2
01[13:57] {@Threei}  forgot to post 1:1
[13:57] {RonS} good one
01[13:57] {@Threei}  but I believe you can forgive me for that
01[13:57] {@Threei}  or not
01[13:57] {@Threei}  if not, I'll go pout some ashes on my head
01[13:57] {@Threei}  pour
[14:01] {dino} dwti drop
[14:02] {RonS} crude busted through 51 now 51.52
[14:05] {dino} dwti vsm l .50
[14:08] {dino} no go, stop -.33
[14:08] {dino} wtf rinsed
[14:21] {dino} nsr drop
[14:25] {RonS} FCC Bureau has ruled against Neustar $NSR with the Co. set to lose a phone number management contract
[14:26] {dino} ty
[14:26] {dino} sm l .82
[14:30] {dino} out nsr 22.05, +1.22
01[14:30] {@Threei}  wiw
01[14:30] {@Threei}  i=o
[14:30] {dino} :)
01[14:30] {@Threei}  not bad reward for 4 min work
[14:30] {dino} was laying out, glad i was
01[14:30] {@Threei}  yeah
[14:31] {RonS} 42% float short...caught some of them covering... gj
[14:31] {dino} ty, re-load?
01[14:35] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .45 break
01[14:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .35
01[14:42] {@Threei}  jf is in 2 min connection mode
[14:43] {dino} that sucks
[14:47] {jfjf64} Hey hey
01[14:47] {@Threei}  lol
[14:48] {jfjf64} How was action earlier
01[14:48] {@Threei}  not bad
01[14:48] {@Threei}  got 1:2 on VXX
01[14:48] {@Threei}  small stop
[14:48] {jfjf64} Nice
01[14:49] {@Threei}  scalp on FB
01[14:49] {@Threei}  decent day
01[14:50] {@Threei}  1:1  IWM
[14:51] {jfjf64} Got that
01[14:55] {@Threei}  Senate fails to get the 67 votes needed to override Obama's veto of Keystone pipeline bill
01[14:56] {@Threei}  - vote: 62 to 37
01[14:56] {@Threei}  wow FB
01[14:57] {@Threei}  watching for reversal setup
01[14:57] {@Threei}  .s fb .80 break
01[14:57] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
01[14:58] {@Threei}  meh
[14:58] {jfjf64} I'm watching
[14:59] {jfjf64} Twtr too
[15:00] {jfjf64} Twtr.70
[15:02] {jfjf64} Fb.90
01[15:03] {@Threei}  yes
01[15:03] {@Threei}  upward tail
01[15:04] {@Threei}  and SPY helps
[15:04] {jfjf64} 1/1both
01[15:05] {@Threei}  1:1
[15:05] {jfjf64} 13 ma holds both up
[15:05] {jfjf64} Twtr breaks it
[15:20] {jfjf64} Vxx here ??
[15:21] {jfjf64} .30
01[15:21] {@Threei}  desirably on pullback under .30
01[15:21] {@Threei}  if holds .25
[15:22] {jfjf64} K
01[15:23] {@Threei}  Report: House committee to subpoena emails from Clinton's personal account, sources say
01[15:24] {@Threei}  VXX on recross
[15:24] {jfjf64}  Bill or hillory
01[15:24] {@Threei}  Hillary
01[15:24] {@Threei}  her friendship with Monika is about to come out...
[15:25] {jfjf64} Ugh
[15:27] {jfjf64} He we go
[15:28] {jfjf64} Kiss of death
[15:28] {jfjf64} I like better now
01[15:29] {@Threei}  from FOMC 2009 transcripts just published:
[15:29] {RonS} she used her personal email exclusively when she ran State...totally against the law
01[15:29] {@Threei}  ROSENGREN: ...I agree with Presidents Evans & Yeltsin—Yellen—[Laughter]
01[15:29] {@Threei}  FISHER. I’ve gone drinking with Janet. She’s no Yeltsin. [Laughter]
[15:29] {RonS} lol
01[15:30] {@Threei}  ugh VXX
[15:30] {RonS} ..."but her beard is heavier than Boris's"
01[15:30] {@Threei}  hehe
[15:33] {jfjf64} .20 break vxx
01[15:35] {@Threei}  not sure
[15:36] {jfjf64} I ook it
[15:37] {jfjf64} 13 ma .23 holdin down
[15:38] {jfjf64} I'm a big 13 ma guy now
[15:38] {jfjf64} Lol
01[15:38] {@Threei}  if you were big, it would be 93 MA
[15:38] {RonS} will stick with jack ma here...
01[15:38] {@Threei}  13 is not big
[15:39] {jfjf64} What is jack ma
[15:40] {dino} lol
[15:40] {jfjf64} Bam
[15:40] {RonS} lol
[15:42] {RonS} $shak spike
[15:51] {dino} calling it a day, gn all
01[15:51] {@Threei}  me too
01[15:51] {@Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
01[15:51] {@Threei}  see you tomorroe
01[15:51] {@Threei}  w
[15:52] {jfjf64} Good night all

Mar 03 2015

Boring and just very slightly positive day, with not much happening.


Session Time: Tue Mar 03 00:00:00 2015
01[09:01] {@Threei}  papillon, see private message
[09:07] {dino} gm
01[09:07] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:07] {RonS} gm...LL look at the bids
01[09:09] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:15] {RonS} kinda feels weird but miss nemo here...
01[09:15] {@Threei}  LOL: Spain govt advisor Nadel: Greece will need a 3rd bailout program
[09:24] {dino} same ron
[09:25] {dino} guy had some god insight
[09:25] {dino} good too
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  ,50 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[09:32] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:33] {@Threei}  valid again
01[09:33] {@Threei}  same setup
01[09:34] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .05 break
01[09:34] {@Threei}  If holds  .95
[09:37] {RonS} dks limp
01[09:41] {@Threei}  no go
01[09:41] {@Threei}  1 cent to 1:1
01[09:43] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:43] {@Threei}  -AMCO +36% (business update)
01[09:43] {@Threei}  -MDR +29% (earnings)
01[09:43] {@Threei}  -FNJN +17% (positive Markman ruling in patent trial)
01[09:43] {@Threei}  -TSEM +9% (begins mass production of Advanced IR Sensor for Intel in depth sensing tech)
01[09:43] {@Threei}  -XON +7.5% (earnings)
01[09:43] {@Threei}  -LL +5% (positive broker commentary & price attractiveness considering dramatic fall in value yesterday)
01[09:43] {@Threei}  -NAV +4% (earnings)
01[09:43] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:43] {@Threei}  -PRIM -18% (earnings)
01[09:43] {@Threei}  -CZR -9.3% (earnings)
01[09:43] {@Threei}  -MNKD -9.3% (negative broker commentary)
01[09:43] {@Threei}  -TEDU -9.5% (earnings)
01[09:43] {@Threei}  -PLUG -8% (files to delay 10-K)
01[09:43] {@Threei}  -SNN -3.8% (acquired Colombian distributor; SYK buyback)
01[09:43] {@Threei}  -DAL -2.5% (traffic)
01[09:45] {@Threei} Short Setup: DAL  .30 break
01[09:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
[09:45] {RonS} insy pulp
01[09:46] {@Threei}  change to .50 break
01[09:46] {@Threei}  too fast
01[09:46] {@Threei}  1:2... grr
01[09:49] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .10 break
01[09:49] {@Threei}  If holds  79
01[09:49] {@Threei}  wtf
01[09:52] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .20 break
01[09:52] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[09:54] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:54] {@Threei}  annoying morning
01[09:56] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .10 break
01[09:56] {@Threei}  If holds  45
01[09:56] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:58] {@Threei}  change to .90 break
01[09:58] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
[10:01] {RonS} sm l pcrx 87.60
01[10:02] {@Threei}  *(US) MAR IBD/TIPP ECONOMIC OPTIMISM: 49.1 V 47.5E
[10:04] {dino} insy sm l .57
01[10:05] {@Threei}  not liking this morning, nothing like yesterday
[10:06] {dino} ron, nice entry pcrx
[10:11] {RonS} out pcrx 89.45 +1.85
01[10:11] {@Threei}  wtg
[10:11] {RonS} ty
01[10:13] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .30 break
01[10:14] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
[10:14] {dino} gj
01[10:15] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:15] {@Threei}  DKTK setup... waited for a rinse after initial .40 break
[10:16] {dino} stop insy, not my week so far
01[10:16] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:17] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:18] {@Threei}  finally something decent
01[10:18] {@Threei}  1:4
01[10:18] {@Threei}  now we need jf to wake up and curse his luck
01[10:20] {@Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .10 break
01[10:20] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
[10:24] {dino} last try smr l insy .23
01[10:25] {@Threei}  frikin DAL got away
01[10:38] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:43] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:43] {@Threei}  day gets brighter
[10:45] {dino} gj
01[10:45] {@Threei}  ty
01[11:10] {@Threei} Short Setup: DAL  .60 break
01[11:10] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[11:14] {@Threei}  Netanyahu is trying to make good with Obama
[11:17] {RonS} COT not bunk
01[11:18] {@Threei}  no go
01[11:18] {@Threei}  no ron... this wasn't good
01[11:18] {@Threei}  I appreciate the intent but...
01[11:26] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .65 break
01[11:26] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[11:29] {@Threei}  change to .60 break
01[11:30] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[11:51] {dino} didn't realize vxx was in 26s
01[11:52] {@Threei}  amazing, isn't it
01[11:54] {@Threei}  The Nasdaq has backed away from 5000 today and the S&P500 has come off all-time highs. US equities have followed European stocks lower in the absence of any major catalysts.
01[11:54] {@Threei}  The US Dollar index rose above 95.50 this morning to its highest level in 11 years. EUR/USD crept closer to the YTD lows
01[12:18] {@Threei}  She: "Oh my God! You really ONLY hear what you want to hear!"
01[12:18] {@Threei}  Me: "Thanks! I've been working out!"
01[12:21] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .85 break
01[12:21] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
01[12:25] {@Threei}  1:1
[12:37] {dino} adding vxx calls
01[12:46] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .55 break
01[12:46] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[12:50] {@Threei}  1:1
01[12:59] {@Threei}  1:2
01[13:17] {@Threei}  UAL Seeing call activity5000 Mar 90 calls trade at the ask
01[14:27] {@Threei}  (RU) EU's Tusk: Prepared to implement further sanctions against Russia if Minsk agreement is violated
01[14:27] {@Threei}  IF?
01[14:27] {@Threei}  it was violated within hours after signing
[14:32] {dino} out insy .52, +1.29
01[14:34] {@Threei}  wtg
[14:35] {dino} ty
01[14:36] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .80 break
01[14:45] {@Threei}  nah
01[14:50] {@Threei}  rinse
01[14:50] {@Threei}  gotta get back to DKTK
[14:51] {dino} what is dktk?
01[14:53] {@Threei}  don't kid the kidder
[14:53] {dino} true working on that 16.70 area gap
01[14:53] {@Threei}  let break go, wait for a rinse, buy after stops are hit
[14:53] {dino} ahh
01[14:59] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .45 break
01[14:59] {@Threei}  If holds  .35
[15:34] {dino} oxlc drop
[15:40] {dino} sm l .85
01[15:41] {@Threei}  bpring day
01[15:42] {@Threei}  boring
01[15:44] {@Threei}  about breakeven, slightly positive
01[15:44] {@Threei}  no desire for any new postions
01[15:44] {@Threei}  than you, havbe a good evening
01[15:44] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:48] {dino} out oxlc .18, +.33
01[15:50] {@Threei}  nice finish
[15:53] {dino} ty
[15:53] {dino} gn

March April 2015 Outlook: Award Season

TradeTheNews.com March April 2015 Outlook: Award Season
Tue, 03 Mar 2015 14:25 PM EST

In the spirit of Hollywood's self-congratulatory award season, let's start with a pat on our own back for what we got right in our January-February outlook. The ECB did indeed step up the timetable for its Quantitative Easing program, announcing the go ahead in January. The risk-on appetite generated by the new plate of QE, however, was initially tempered by the demands of the newly elected leftist government in Greece. As predicted, after a brief flirtation with brinkmanship, the Syriza Party leadership sobered up to the realities of governing and accepted a deal to keep Greece in the euro zone. In Eastern Europe, President Putin played at peace maker again, as we suspected he might, but the result of reaffirming the Minsk accord is as yet inconclusive. Also as expected, China took another swing at stimulus, which could be just the beginning as the nation reshapes its economy toward a more sustainable long term growth model. And finally, the strengthened dollar crimped Q4 results for a number of US multinationals, and oil prices have found a near term bottom, which has helped ease forex volatility in the last few weeks.

Over the next two month period the path of four crucial economic issues will become clearer. First down the red carpet, the oil market will tip its hand, either recovering some ground in a sign of growth returning or hitting fresh lows if new demand does not materialize amid continued high output. The latter seems more likely at this point as Saudi King Abdullah finally succumbed to old age, but his new oil policy lives on - Saudi is unwilling to act as the swing producer anymore, weighing heavily on oil prices and dragging down global inflation with it. Second is that issue of weak inflation, which most policy experts believe will avoid morphing into a deflationary spiral once low oil prices start to exert a stimulative effect. The third issue is how impactful the latest round of global stimulus will be as Europe and Asia add more logs to the fire, and to what extent smaller central banks will be forced to play a supporting role. Lastly, by April we should have more clarity on when the Fed plans to finally start dismantling its extraordinary stimulus machine.

Dark Horse Upsets

Just like award ceremonies, not every outcome in the market is predictable. There have been some genuine surprises in the last few months that could set up a counterproductive current in 2015. The monumental easing programs of the world's biggest central banks have recently pushed smaller national banks to new policy extremes. The shocking move by the Swiss National Bank to abandon its tightly defended floor in the franc against the euro seemed to open the floodgates for other smaller central banks enlist in the currency war. After the SNB move, central bankers from Singapore to Australia to Israel surprised markets by cutting already low rates, and some, like Sweden, joined the Swiss in experimenting with negative rates. As pressure builds on policy makers to address declining inflation, sliding commodity prices, and softening growth expectations such moves may become more commonplace, if not the norm. And now that the Swiss, who are more dependent on the banking sector than anyone, have resorted to negative rates, more central banks may find this course necessary to prompt commercial banks to channel their money into investments that will stimulate the economy. The downside is that if such aggressive and unprecedented monetary policy moves do not yield demonstrable results, it could erode trust in the global central bank monetary regime that won some praise for averting a Great Depression in 2008.

The Early Favorites

For market prognosticators, the show gets off to a quick start in early March. The first week of the month will be highlighted by an ECB policy meeting detailing the launch of its quantitative easing program. Meanwhile in China, leaders will gather to do the accounting of last year's reform efforts and slowing growth and set new targets, and in the US banks will see their statutory stress test results aired in public.

China's Q4 GDP report confirmed that the PRC's economic growth has fallen to its slowest pace in 24 years, and missed the official annual target (7.5% for 2014) for the first time since 1998. The leadership is now expected to further reduce its growth goal to around 7% for this year, an announcement that will come at the spring party plenum in early March. There are even some predictions that amidst the very public anti-corruption and reform campaign that has been waged over the last year, Beijing may take this moment to deemphasize the numerical GDP target as it strives to improve the qualitative shape of its growth. This means aiming to reduce its dependence on credit-fueled investment and government spending, and putting more emphasis on spurring domestic consumer consumption. Indeed some progress on this front shone through in the latest GDP data which indicated that consumption accounted 51.2% of 2014 growth, a full three percentage point higher than the prior year.

China's policy makers are still worried about slower growth, however, as evidenced by the PBoC cutting rates twice in the last three months, while the government has promised to continue its official "proactive" fiscal policy stance which has been in place since the inception of the 2008 financial crisis. The latest 25 basis point cut went into effect on March 1 and some analysts expect more rate cuts in the months ahead, though that would belie the central bank's assertions that it is only "fine tuning" its policy. On the fiscal side, Premier Li has made it known that the government will step up the magnitude of its proactive policy, including plans to give tax breaks to small businesses. All told, these drops of new stimulus add up to substantive support for the economy and would suggest that Chinese policy makers are ready and willing to do more if the need is there.

The PBoC's European counterpart has not been shy about providing more accommodation. Final details of the new ECB quantitative easing program will be discussed at the central bank's March 5 policy meeting. In January, the ECB announced an expanded asset purchase program of €60 billion per month, about what was expected including the roll up of the existing ABS and covered bond programs. Surprisingly, instead of setting a specific overall size or duration for the program, the ECB left the program open ended, stating it will continue until the central bank observes a sustained adjustment in path of inflation.

Stimulus junkies took delight in this indefinite end point which some analysts already see stretching well past the September 2016 cut-off date that had been expected. However, the latest press coverage indicates that this estimated end date could be realistic after all. According to reports, thanks to the positive reaction to the QE announcement, the ECB's latest quarterly macroeconomic outlook could forecast inflation returning to the 'just under 2%' target in 2017, a signal that it may not be necessary to extend the sovereign bond buying program beyond the fall of 2016 after all. If this is indeed to baseline forecast, it will still be tempered by the short term inflation outlook, which ECB President Draghi has warned will involve a period of negative inflation driven by the collapse of oil prices.

The same day as the ECB press conference, the too big to fail banks subject to the Fed's stress test will tear open the envelops to find out if they are all winners. Six days after that (March 11) the related outcomes of the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) will be made public. Last year 29 of 30 banks passed the stress tests, with only Zions bank falling short of minimum capital levels required, but another four banks (Citigroup, HSBC North America, RBS Citizens, and Santander Holdings) joined Zions in having their CCAR requests denied by the Fed. The CCAR denial was particularly embarrassing for Citigroup, whose leaders will undoubted do everything they can this year to ensure they can raise their measly one cent dividend. Overall, the banks should disclose modest requests to increase their dividends in the CCAR announcements, a sign of normalization in the finance market and perhaps a hint that lending institutions believe higher interest rates are finally be on the way after six years of extraordinary low rates that have limited the profitability of traditional commercial banking.

Acceptance Speech

Assuming no surprise bank stress test failures, the biggest problem for Fed policy this year may be the global economy, which the Fed took pains to point out in its January policy statement by adding a phrase about monitoring international developments. The proper employment conditions for pulling back on accommodation have been in place for some time, so when solid evidence of movement toward the second mandate of steady and stable inflation materializes, the Fed would be justified in raising rates. The quandary is that this would put the Fed way out in front of other global central banks, moving US monetary policy toward normalization even while central banks in Europe and Asia are going to new and unprecedented extremes of accommodation.

Fed speakers have given every indication that if the US economy gets some healthier inflation in the months ahead, the Fed is ready to pull the trigger on rate lift off. However, Chair Yellen and her crew have made it clear that this cycle of rate tighten will not be on autopilot as it has so often been in the past. Prior cycles of tightening policy have tended to involve steady 25 basis point hikes at six week intervals, meeting after meeting. But taking the current global environment into account - with major trading partners still struggling with growth and teetering on deflation, and the dollar undeniably strong - the Fed has said rate hikes will likely come slower and the endgame will be at a lower level, perhaps a 3.75% Fed funds rate in the longer term.

Each economic data point this spring will be scrutinized for whether it will bring rate lift off sooner, or later. The earliest possible date for the tightening cycle to start is now seen as the mid-June Fed meeting. Speculation about such an early lift off will be dashed at the March 19 meeting if the Fed retains its "patient" stance, which has been defined as no action for at least the next two meetings. If the data cooperates, that might make the Fed's meeting at the end of April the right moment to signal the policy shift by dropping the patient language, opening the path for the first rate hike in September, though still retaining the flexibility to wait another meeting or two if global development continue to weigh on the committee's outlook.

And the Nominees Are

One less thing Chair Yellen will have contend with this year is the coterie of FOMC dissenters who spoke out in 2014. The dovish dissenter, Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota, has rotated out of the voting membership for the next two years. Meanwhile the two leading hawks of 2014, Dallas Fed President Fisher and Philadelphia Fed President Plosser will both step down in March. Heading into their retirement, Fisher and Plosser have both spent a significant time giving TV interviews, trying to leave a lasting impression, though Fisher acknowledged recently that he had lost the argument for a Q1 rate lift off.

Without these three dissenting voices, policy setting should be more united in 2015, as two of the new voters include Atlanta Fed President Lockhart, a moderate who will likely stick with the consensus, and San Francisco Fed President Williams who agrees that rate lift off will probably happen in the second half of the year. The leading hawk among the voters will now be Richmond Fed President Lacker, who has been a skeptic of easy-money policies, though not as stridently as Fisher and Plosser. The Dallas and Philly Fed boards have yet nominate new Presidents, but reports have indicated that Dallas is looking for a candidate that shares the policy views of Fisher while Philadelphia wants someone with a strong academic background, as Plosser had. In any case, new members tend to keep a low profile for the first year of their tenure and the two will not be voters until 2017 [*March 2 update: Philly Fed nominates Patrick Harker, current president of the University of Delaware].

It's All Political

While the Fed may see more unity this year, divisive political issues continue to wrack Europe. A Greek meltdown was averted again, at least for a few more months, while the next slow moving political crisis may emerge from the UK.

As expected, for all of its anti-bailout electioneering talk, the new left-wing Syriza government in Athens turned out to be more pragmatic once in power. Prime Minister Tsipras and his rock-star Finance Minister Varoufakis kept the euro zone on edge with their rhetoric and a long list of demands, but ultimately lost their swagger and settled for a few cosmetic changes to gain a 4-month extension of the rescue package. The key concession Athens got was an agreement to halt austerity measures for the rest of 2015 due to "economic circumstances." Relaxing the austerity measures that helped push unemployment up to 25% and ultimately brought Syriza to power this year, should put Greece on the road to a more durable solution in the months ahead. For now, the reaction on the Greek street must be watched closely, as the technical oversight of the hated 'Troika' was shed in name only (one of the concessions Tsipras got was to refer to the ECB, European Commission, and the IMF as "the institutions" rather than the "troika" as they continue to carry out their mission directing the bailout program). If easing austerity isn't felt fast enough, public sentiment could put pressure on Syriza to take a harder line in the next round of negotiations in the months ahead.

The next potentially jarring political event on the horizon for Europe is the UK election in May. The event has not gotten much attention outside of Britain, as the Greek drama and the ECB's QE decision stole the limelight. Prime Minister Cameron has pledged that if his party wins an outright majority in this year's election, allowing them to shed the Liberal Democrats as a coalition partner, then he will undertake a yes-no referendum on the UK's membership in the EU in 2017. After the paroxysms caused by Greece's feints toward the euro zone, the prospect of the UK spending the next two years discussing a break with the EU could deal a grave blow to the notion of greater European unity.

I'd Like to Thank...Oil

The price of oil seems to be at the heart of any assessment of the current economy. The precipitous drop in crude prices is indicative of weak global economic growth, while simultaneously exerting even more downward pressure on already low inflation resulting from that slow growth. A month ago WTI crude fell to below $45/barrel and then surged a quick ten dollars and now lies near the middle of that range. The volatility being seen of late has divided oil traders into two camps, with some declaring definite bottoming action here, while others expect another leg lower into the $30's. Who will ultimately be correct depends on a number of factors.

Arguing for more stable oil prices is the fact that E&P firms have already slashed capital expenditures for this year as they batten down the hatches. North American producers are taking wells offline at a rapid clip, as indicated by the weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count. Historically the rig count has mirrored the through-the-cycle price of oil, which was more than halved. At the current pace the rig count could reach a 50% drop from its September peak before the end of April. That would bring the US rig count to under 1,000 in operation, which could mark a turning point for the global energy market as the shale producers begin to report lower production from their leaner operations.

The rig count can be a deceptive indicator, however, as the camp predicting lower prices would note that oil firms are "high grading" their production, shutting down rigs in their least productive locations but maintaining all of their higher production wells. Until some of these more productive wells are taken out of service too, the glut of oil in storage will persist. This could be further exacerbated by a tricky negotiation with refinery workers across the US that has already led to some strike actions. A broader walk out at refineries could lead to some curtailment of those operations and put even more downward pressure on the price of the raw commodity. Furthermore, some analysts have suggested that existing physical crude oil storage could soon reach maximum capacity, backing up the oil supply at the wellhead.

Another factor to consider when reviewing the energy market is the potential for defaults on debt related to drilling operations. Goldman Sachs chief commodities analyst Currie recently predicted oil would dip to around $40/barrel for the next six months, and that staying at that level for a sustained period could unleash "real default probabilities."

The periodic rumors about OPEC taking action were refueled lately when the Nigerian oil minister suggested that she may ask for an emergency meeting in the next few weeks if the price of oil continues to slide. Convening a meeting is based on a murky procedure for reaching a consensus, and it is considered against diplomatic procedure for a member state to publically call for a special meeting that might be rejected by other members. Such extraordinary gatherings are rare, the last being December 2010 to discuss quota compliance, and Saudi Arabia has downplayed the idea of meeting outside of the normal bi-annual schedule (the next scheduled meeting is June 5).

For its part, the Saudi government has indicated that it thinks Brent oil could settle in at around $60/barrel, about where it has been hovering for the last month. Oil minister Naimi has said he will stick to his guns no matter how low the price falls, though this resolve may be tested if Saudi Aramco's margins erode much further.

Trouble in the Middle East forever remains a source of potential upset in the energy market. The Pentagon announced that Iraqi forces will launch a spring offensive against ISIS in Mosul, pitting over 20 thousand Iraqi soldiers with US advisors and air support against some two thousand dug in militants. The odds seem to be well in favor of the Iraqis liberating Mosul, but if the army falters again as it did last year, it may doom the country to the kind of fractioning experienced by Libya, and potentially put its substantial oil supply at risk.

The Iran nuclear talks will also come to a head in March. The US appears to be unwilling to grant yet another extension, so a solid outline for an agreement must be achieved in the next few weeks or negotiations will collapse, a probability that President Obama handicapped at over 50/50 as of January. If nuclear talks fail, the full sanction regime will be reapplied, not to mention that Tehran hardliners will likely assert themselves and hamstring the pragmatic President Rohani.

Best Supporting Actors

The swoon in oil prices has weighed on already too low inflation, and coupled with the jitters about Greece caused some real volatility in early 2015. Remarkably, equity markets have shaken off these concerns and many major indices are marking record highs, and may get pushed even higher when the expected tailwind from lower energy costs start to be felt. That could translate into healthier global growth and inflation figures in the spring.

Central banks are still handing out stimulus like statutes on Oscar night - there are more categories than you would care to imagine and the program always seems to run too long. The ECB has added QE to its array of ABS, covered bond, and TLTRO programs, and China seems ready to do more around the margins. The operational minutiae of European QE should put to rest questions about the program being too big for the amount of qualifying instruments, though it may stir the pot on Greece one more time as Athens will likely be put on probationary status during its four month renegotiation period.

Over the course of the next couple months, the Fed will have enough data to narrow the window on when rates should lift off the zero bound, most likely settling on autumn for the start of a gradual rate tightening cycle, though it hasn't lost its "patience" yet. With its eyes on the prize of policy normalization, that stance could shift pretty quickly if the economy starts putting up strong, consistent numbers, especially if it includes wage inflation and renewed vigor in the still listless housing market. Conversely, if low inflation remains a stubborn problem and global markets experience more turbulence it could deny the Fed its rate lift off, and leave them saying "maybe next year."



CALENDAR OF EVENTS
MARCH
1: China HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI
2: Various EU Manufacturing PMIs; Euro Zone Flash CPI Estimate; Euro Zone Unemployment; US Personal Spending; US ISM Manufacturing
3: German Retail Sales
4: Euro Zone Retail Sales; US ISM Non-Manufacturing
5: German Factory Orders; BOE policy decision; ECB policy decision and press conference; US Factory Orders; US bank stress test results
6: UK Construction PMI; US Payrolls & Unemployment; US Trade Balance

8: Japan Final Q4 GDP
9: China CPI & PPI; China Trade Balance (tentative)
10: US JOLTS Job Openings
11: China New Loans; UK Manufacturing Production; US banks CCAR results
12: China Industrial Production; US Retail Sales
13: US PPI; US Prelim University of Michigan Confidence

16: US Industrial Production; BOJ policy statement
17: German ZEW Economic Sentiment; Euro Zone Final CPI; US Housing Starts & Permits; Japan Trade Balance
18: BOE minutes; UK Annual Budget Release; FOMC Policy Statement & Press Conference
19: US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing; China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
20: Various EU Flash Manufacturing PMI readings

23: US Existing Home Sales
24: German Ifo Business Climate; US CPI; US Consumer Confidence; US New Home Sales
25: US Durable Goods Orders; Japan Industrial Production; japan Retail Sales
26: UK Retail Sales; Tokyo CPI
27: US Final Q4 GDP

30: German preliminary CPI; US Personal Spending
31: UK Final Q4 GDP; Euro Zone Flash CPI Estimate; Euro Zone Unemployment; US Chicago PMI; Japan Tankan Manufacturing Index; China Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI; China HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI
APRIL
1: Various EU Manufacturing PMIs; US ISM Manufacturing
2: US Trade Balance; US Factory Orders
3: US Payrolls & Unemployment

6:
7: BOJ policy statement; China Trade Balance
8: German Factory Orders; Euro Zone Retail Sales, FOMC minutes
9: China New Loans; BOE policy decision; China CPI & PPI
10: US University of Michigan Confidence

12: BOJ minutes
13:
14: US Retail Sales; US PPI
15: ECB policy decision and press conference; US Industrial Production; China Q1 GDP
16: US Housing Starts & Building Permits; US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
17: Euro Zone Final Q4 GDP; US CPI

19: China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
20: Euro Zone Flash Manufacturing PMI; US Flash Manufacturing PMI
21: German ZEW Economic Sentiment; Japan Trade Balance
22: BOE Minutes; US Existing Home Sales
23: German Ifo Business Climate; US New Home Sales
24: US Durable Goods Orders

27: Japan Household Spending
28: UK Preliminary Q1 GDP; US Consumer Confidence; Tokyo CPI; Japan Industrial Production; Japan Retail Sales
29: Euro Zone Preliminary CPI; US Q1 Advance GDP (1st reading); FOMC policy statement; BOJ policy statement
30: Euro Zone Flash CPI Estimate; Euro Zone Unemployment; US Personal Spending; US Chicago PMI; China Manufacturing PMI; China HSBC Manufacturing PMI
MAY
1: US ISM Manufacturing PMI

Mar 02 2015

Fastest and easiest 1:5 ever 

Day of fireworks, continuing as strongly as started, One of the best trading sessions this year, with win after win after win.



Session Time: Mon Mar 02 00:00:00 2015
[09:09] {dino} gm, its official, 3rd cldest february on record here, tied for 4th place as one of the coldest months on record. average temp this feb were 17.5 degrees . only two clder, 1901 & 1934. 2015 Averaged 11.3 degrees below the average feb temp. i guess what i'm trying to say, its f'ng cold up here
01[09:09] {@Threei}  morning dino
01[09:09] {@Threei}  yeah... and we are having record warm Feb... or secind warmest, don't remember
[09:10] {dino} trade you
01[09:11] {@Threei}  ummm
01[09:11] {@Threei}  I need to think about it
[09:13] {RonS} gm
01[09:14] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:22] {cosmo} Gee, maybe if it wasn't for global warming, those 1901 and 1934 lows would be have been exceded by now...
[09:23] {RonS} NOAA: 2,185 cold records broken or tied in last 7 days...
01[09:23] {@Threei}  and dino wouldn't be even online, since interenet would have froze?
[09:25] {dino} wow ll
[09:25] {cosmo} 11?
[09:26] {RonS} saw 60 minutes...someone is going to jail... LL
[09:27] {cosmo} oh
01[09:27] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -MVNR +20% (being acquired by Mitel in cash & stock deal worth $560M)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -CYCC +20% (no news seen)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -NXP +15% (merger with FSL)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -FSL +10% (merger agreement with NXP)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -SSYS +3.6% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -KITE +3% (expanded R&D collaboration with the National Cancer Institute)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -KFX +3% (acquired Aia Holding BV for $19.5M cash)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -ENDP +2.2% (selling American Medical Systems Urology portfolio for up to $1.68B)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -LL -25% (momentum from negative 60 Minutes report alleging that laminate flooring made in China doesn't meet CA safety codes)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -PCRX -14% (received complete response letter from FDA for sNDA seeking approval for EXPAREL)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -LPI -7% (offering 50M shares through Credit Suisse)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -EGO -6.5% (update on Greece)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -ISIS -3.7% (earned $15M milestone payment from GSK for advancing ISIS-TTR Rx & also received negative broker commentary)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -GPRO -3.5% (Chinese competition)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -WTW -3% (negative broker commentary)
[09:27] {RonS} 13-20X formaldyhide standard in laminated flooring...
01[09:31] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .30 break
01[09:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .36
01[09:32] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:5
01[09:33] {@Threei}  out
01[09:33] {@Threei}  what a beautiful rug pull
[09:40] {dino} pcrx blood
[09:41] {dino} gj
01[09:41] {@Threei}  ty
01[09:43] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .42 break
01[09:43] {@Threei}  If holds  .36
01[09:45] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:46] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .75 break
01[09:46] {@Threei}  If holds  .65
01[09:48] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:50] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .40 break
01[09:50] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:51] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:53] {jfjf64} Gmail all
01[09:53] {@Threei}  hey jf
[09:53] {jfjf64} Gm all
[09:54] {jfjf64} Lol
01[09:54] {@Threei}  missed 1:5
[09:54] {jfjf64} Oh shit
[09:54] {jfjf64} ?
01[09:54] {@Threei}  http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2015/03/mar-02-2015.html
01[09:56] {@Threei}  and CAT is at 1:1
01[09:56] {@Threei}  that'll teach you how to sleep in
01[09:57] {@Threei}  wait... you do that well without teaching
[09:57] {jfjf64} Had to shovel lots snow here
[09:57] {jfjf64} But that's on me should of started earlier
01[09:58] {@Threei}  reminds me my secretary back in old country...
01[09:58] {@Threei}  girl comes to work 30 min kate, asked why she says " left home too late,"
[09:58] {jfjf64} Lol
01[09:59] {@Threei}  asked why she didn't leave earlier, she said: ut was too late to leave earlier
01[09:59] {@Threei}  laughed so hard, that decided to let it go
01[10:00] {@Threei}  10:00 *(US) FEB ISM MANUFACTURING: 52.9 V 53.0E; ISM PRICES PAID: 35.0 V 37.0E
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) JAN CONSTRUCTION SPENDING M/M: -1.1% V 0.3%E
[10:00] {jfjf64} Like vxx here bounce
01[10:01] {@Threei}  1:2  CAT
[10:01] {jfjf64} .20
01[10:01] {@Threei}  not sure
[10:01] {dino} pcrx smr l .48
[10:08] {jfjf64} Mcd 101 s
01[10:08] {@Threei}  yup
01[10:09] {@Threei}  if holds .10
01[10:09] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:10] {jfjf64} We get to .74 no prob
[10:13] {jfjf64} Close to 1/2
01[10:19] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:28] {@Threei}  with this kind of morning we can go home already, lol
[10:28] {jfjf64} Shamed us out going down to .35
01[10:28] {@Threei}  1:5 and two 1:2ers
[10:28] {jfjf64} Shacked
[10:29] {jfjf64} Great mornin
[10:29] {dino} jf, 8" snow here last night
[10:30] {jfjf64} Got 7 inches here
[10:30] {jfjf64} 8 feet
01[10:30] {@Threei}  (US) Hearing strength in WTI crude futures attributed to circulation of Genscape report - Reportedly Genscape weekly estimates shows a smaller-than-expected build in Cushing inventories
01[10:30] {@Threei}  lol
01[10:30] {@Threei}  Nasdaq touches 5000
[10:31] {dino} inches
[10:31] {jfjf64} Lol
[10:31] {jfjf64} My snow blower gettin tired
[10:32] {jfjf64} More middle week
[10:33] {jfjf64} AAPL .65 long
[10:33] {jfjf64} 1/1
[10:34] {jfjf64} 1/2
[10:34] {jfjf64} Out
01[10:34] {@Threei}  wtg
[10:35] {jfjf64} Ty
[10:36] {jfjf64} These pullbacks I'm playin get to 13 ma then little res
[10:36] {jfjf64} I'm noticing
01[10:39] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MCD  .45 break
01[10:39] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[10:39] {@Threei}  tight risk control
[10:40] {jfjf64} Lov it
01[10:40] {@Threei}  wiith this kind of profits, no way I'd risk more than 20% of it till end of the day
[10:40] {jfjf64} .35 big support
[10:41] {jfjf64} Twtr .50 l
01[10:43] {@Threei}  meh
[10:43] {jfjf64} .35 bounce
[10:44] {jfjf64} Imo
[10:44] {jfjf64} No go twtr
[10:46] {jfjf64} .40 break will try mcd
[10:47] {RonS} dino, you there?
[10:51] {jfjf64} Close to 1/1  moving stop up will not loose money
[10:52] {RonS} if money is loose it is bound to be lost...
01[10:52] {@Threei}  lol
01[10:52] {@Threei}  dino can't see you ron, he keeps eyes closed, not to see all that snow
[10:53] {jfjf64} Ron ya starting to sound like vg
[10:53] {dino} sorry ron
[10:54] {jfjf64} Twtr stopped me out no goes
[10:54] {RonS} np...you need to see this week's Barrons and read the article :The liitle guy Wins"...
[10:54] {RonS} little
[10:54] {dino} online?
[10:55] {RonS} it details the price improvement i was speaking about last week...
[10:55] {dino} ahh
[10:55] {RonS} library?
[10:56] {jfjf64} Nxpi watchin
[11:01] {jfjf64} .40
[11:01] {jfjf64} Break
[11:10] {jfjf64} grr missed it
[11:12] {jfjf64} Bastard
01[11:13] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .20 break
01[11:13] {@Threei}  If holds  .13
[11:13] {RonS} long mifi 5.33
01[11:18] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[11:25] {@Threei} Short Setup: MCD  .10 break
01[11:25] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
[11:26] {RonS} out mifi +.07 ese size...it stalled
[11:28] {dino} nice
01[11:30] {@Threei}  YHOO Ticking higher on vague chatter CEO Marissa Mayer could be ousted
01[11:30] {@Threei}  must be nice feeling for her
01[11:31] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:58] {@Threei}  (GR) Eurogroup official refutes earlier comments from Guindos about whether a third bailout program for Greece was being discussed - press - Reminder: Earlier the Spain Econ Min Guindos commented that the EMU has had discussions on a third bailout program for Greece in the amount of €30-50B
01[11:58] {@Threei}  lol
01[11:58] {@Threei}  2035: 18th bailout for Greece is being discussed; Eurogoup denies rumors
01[11:59] {@Threei}  2040: Greece says this is going to be a year it finally leaves EU
01[12:00] {@Threei}  The Nasdaq Composite has climbed above 5,000 today for the first time since the dot-com bust of 2000-01
[12:07] {RonS} today's inspirational headline: "Buying pet health insurance? Sniff out the fine print"
[12:07] {jfjf64} Stx .10 break
01[12:09] {@Threei}  lol
[12:09] {jfjf64} No go
01[12:17] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .20 break
01[12:17] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[12:22] {@Threei}  to .14
01[12:31] {@Threei}  Lottery gives you a 1 in 60M chance of skipping work tomorrow...alcohol is 1 in 5.
01[12:31] {@Threei}  You play your game...I'll play mine
[12:31] {jfjf64} Lol
[12:32] {jfjf64} Ya like iwm
[12:32] {jfjf64} .80
01[12:32] {@Threei}  not sure, too random
01[12:33] {@Threei}  rofl
01[12:34] {@Threei}  police found strange tunnel dug out in the forest not far from Toronto,
01[12:34] {@Threei}  after a few days of investigation they announced: no criminal intent, no danger,
01[12:34] {@Threei}  two men dug it out "for personal reasons"
01[12:34] {@Threei}  Comment under the article in online paper:
01[12:35] {@Threei}  "Who of us hasn't dug a tunnel for personal reason at some point in our life"
01[12:38] {@Threei}  Putin now has the elite exactly where he wants them — terrified
01[12:38] {@Threei}  He rules Russia with three things: money, propaganda and terror.
[12:38] {jfjf64} Yes he does
[12:39] {jfjf64} AAPL .95 break
01[12:39] {@Threei}  CNN has apologized for a technical glitch that showed an image of Russian Preasident Vladimir Putin during a news segment on an alleged ISIS executioner 'Jihadi John'.
01[12:39] {@Threei}  lol
[12:41] {jfjf64} .65
[12:43] {jfjf64} in
[12:44] {jfjf64} 1/1
[12:47] {jfjf64} That's funny shit cnn
01[12:48] {@Threei}  I see no error there, not sure why they apologized
[12:49] {jfjf64} Vg were you in Russia /with Putin rule
[12:49] {RonS} they don't want to get whacked...
01[12:51] {@Threei}  no
01[12:51] {@Threei}  I left in 1996
01[12:51] {@Threei}  and in any case, I am from Ukraine, nor Russia
01[12:51] {@Threei}  not
01[12:52] {@Threei}  so, I observe this Stalin v.2 from outside
[12:53] {jfjf64} I'm sorry  big dif Ukraine you. Hate this sob
01[12:53] {@Threei}  at the risk of pissing off dino and jf, https://www.facebook.com/VadymGraiferPhotography/photos/a.488848774527976.1073741828.483178015095052/801485436597640/?type=1
[12:53] {RonS} pcrx more blood
[12:55] {jfjf64} .60 long pcrx
[12:55] {jfjf64} Missed it
[12:55] {jfjf64} Gotta get me them faster ronnie
[12:56] {RonS} you will get another chance...not enough volume yet...
[12:57] {jfjf64} I'm going to grab lunch
[12:57] {RonS} wife or girlfriend?
[12:57] {jfjf64} No 1/5 ers when gone vg
01[12:57] {@Threei}  can't promise
[12:58] {jfjf64} Always my wifey ronnie
[12:58] {RonS} vdsi set sail...
[12:59] {jfjf64} Pcrx goons go
[13:02] {RonS} ah gigi...when shirley maclaine was hot
[13:03] {RonS} lol...think i saw that at 8 and still thought so...
01[13:03] {@Threei}  lol
01[13:04] {@Threei}  was that gig also 5 min man?
01[13:04] {@Threei}  gigi
[13:04] {RonS} think been on and off all day...
[13:16] {RonS} LL defends:  $LL: Lumber Liquidators disclosed response to '60 Minutes' piece in 8K filing; says 'suppliers have confirmed that... http://bit.ly/1wKm7bR
01[13:16] {@Threei} Short Setup: MCD  .90 break
01[13:16] {@Threei}  If holds  100
01[13:21] {@Threei}  1:1
01[13:22] {@Threei}  1:2
01[13:22] {@Threei}  man, jf will be pissed
01[13:22] {@Threei}  touched 1:3 but I wasn't quick enough
[13:43] {dino} vdsi sm l .75 stop lod
01[13:48] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .15 break
01[13:48] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
[14:00] {dino} pcrx smr l .62
01[14:03] {@Threei}  18 minutes this time
01[14:03] {@Threei}  progress
[14:04] {RonS} lol
[14:08] {RonS} wow googl
01[14:18] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[14:24] {@Threei}  finally 1:3 on MCD
01[14:31] {@Threei}  1:4
01[14:37] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .10 break
01[14:37] {@Threei}  If holds  27
[14:40] {jfjf64} Ahh shit
[14:40] {jfjf64} Lol
01[14:40] {@Threei}  hehe
[14:41] {jfjf64} You like gettin me
01[14:41] {@Threei}  it kind of happens
01[14:42] {@Threei}  we are back to 5 min pattern, ron
01[14:53] {@Threei}  Invalidated  VXX
[14:53] {jfjf64} AAPL .45
[14:55] {jfjf64} 1/1
[14:57] {RonS} wow LL has traded 77% of the outstanding
[14:57] {jfjf64} 1/2
[14:58] {jfjf64} 1/3
[15:00] {dino} pcrx stop
01[15:01] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MCD  .70 break
[15:01] {jfjf64} 1/4
01[15:01] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
[15:02] {jfjf64} Out
[15:04] {jfjf64} Watchin pcrx for entry
[15:05] {RonS} $65?
[15:15] {jfjf64} Pcrx .30
[15:17] {jfjf64} Nailed that bitch
01[15:20] {@Threei}  {bitch} ouch...
[15:23] {jfjf64} Looks short now pcrx ??
[15:24] {jfjf64} 93 break
[15:24] {jfjf64} ??
01[15:29] {@Threei}  half out
01[15:29] {@Threei}  stop to .64
[15:34] {jfjf64} Cbs .55 break
01[15:34] {@Threei}  1:1
01[15:34] {@Threei}  stop to .69
01[15:35] {@Threei}  this is trading heaven of a day
01[15:37] {@Threei}  Toronto police says tunnel was dug by men who wanted a cave
01[15:37] {@Threei}  OK... I can officially die laughing now
01[15:38] {@Threei}  1/4 more out MCD
[15:38] {jfjf64} You really like that story
01[15:38] {@Threei}  well... digging a tunnel in the forest "for personal reasons?"
[15:39] {jfjf64} Agree
01[15:39] {@Threei}  you get a tatoo for personal reasons
[15:39] {jfjf64} Happy happy
01[15:39] {@Threei}  or a mistress
[15:39] {jfjf64} Half out cbs
[15:40] {RonS} LL going to L in a handbasket...
[15:41] {jfjf64} You short rs
[15:42] {RonS} nah
[15:46] {jfjf64} Good night all
01[15:47] {@Threei}  closing MCD
01[15:47] {@Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
01[15:47] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow

Market Week Wrap-up

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Greek Crisis Averted (again), Fed Stays Flexible
Fri, 27 Feb 2015 16:26 PM EST

The seemingly inexorable rise in global equities continued this week, though US stocks took a pause, hovering just below all-time highs as the fourth-quarter earnings season draws to a close and US economic data remains pretty decent. The Shanghai Composite saw strong gains as China returned from the Lunar New Year holiday to more injections of PBoC liquidity. European equity indices surged to multi-year highs this week thanks to a glimmer of positive economic data and the upcoming launch of the ECB's quantitative easing program in March. More details on the program are expected at the ECB meeting next week. European and Greek officials kicked the can four months down the road while preliminary February German CPI inflation was +0.1%, after falling to -0.4% in January. US interest rates drifted lower led by the back end of the Treasury curve. The 10-year yield declined by more than 10 basis points on the week. A combination of mixed US economic data and Fed Chair Yellen's testimony on Capitol Hill failed to cement expectations that a June liftoff was definitely in the cards. For the week, the DJIA was about flat, the S&P500 fell 0.3% and the Nasdaq eked out a 0.2% gain.

Yellen's Congressional testimony largely reiterated the tone and content of the FOMC minutes from the January meeting. Yellen established more flexibility for rate lift off by emphasizing that changes to the forward guidance regarding the "patient" language would proceed hikes but would not necessarily indicate imminent tightening. Policy changes remain dependent on employment and inflation data, although Yellen reiterated there is no evidence inflation will move above 2% anytime soon. In a speech late in the week, Atlanta Fed Governor Dennis Lockhart framed the Fed's dilemma: it must weigh weak inflation data against good growth and continued employment gains. Fed moderate Bullard reiterated that if the Fed got too far behind the curve on rate hikes, financial markets could react violently to policy changes.

Another look at solid fourth quarter GDP and the January CPI readings underscored the Fed's dilemma: headline y/y CPI fell into negative territory for the first time since December 2009, with the -0.1% decline a big slip from the prior month's +0.8% reading. There's no mystery behind the reading, which was widely expected: depressed crude prices. The core reading, which strips out energy prices, was unchanged from the prior month at +1.6%, but was still well short of the Fed's 2.0% target. Meanwhile the second reading of fourth-quarter GDP was pretty good, declining less than expected to +2.2% from the +2.6% advance number and personal consumption slipped a bit to +4.2%. EUR/USD saw a major move lower after the US CPI data, dropping from 1.1380 to 1.1190 on Thursday, and then testing 1.1180 on Friday. Recall that the 1.1110 level seen in late January was the lowest level in the pair since 2003.

The January home sales numbers out this week indicated the housing sector continues to chug along at a modest pace. January new home sales were little changed from the six-year high seen in the December data, while median prices slipped a bit lower. January existing home sales slipped a bit lower from the December rate, but were still up 3.2% y/y. Homebuilder Toll Brothers crushed expectations in its fourth quarter report, with demand for its new homes up by double-digits y/y. The overriding concern heading into the spring selling season remains low inventories nationwide.

Greece and its European partners reached a deal to extend the current bailout plan for an additional four months, helping Athens cover bond payments due over the next several months. After weeks of pressure, the new Greek government agreed to certain vague "concessions" (pension liberalization, better tax collection, a promise not to roll back completed privatizations) in order to obtain the extension, although press reports suggested that the euro zone is skeptical that the Greeks will follow through on them. However weak, the concessions are seen in Greece as a retreat by Syriza from its election pledges to write off a big chunk of Greece's sovereign debt and end austerity. With close to €20 billion in deposit outflows from its banks, Greece remains in a precarious position, and negotiations will begin again for a more lasting solution to the nation's problems.

Brent and WTI crude futures diverged this week. After bouncing higher the first half of February, WTI weakened. The Baker Hughes weekly US total rig count continues to drop, though the steep rate of decline has eased in the last two weeks. The API and EIA weekly inventory reports featured more big builds in crude stocks, while the continuing refinery strike depressed demand, even as gasoline stocks have seen drawdowns. Meanwhile Brent sustained the gains seen earlier in the month as the moderately positive euro zone data and supply disruptions in Libya helped propel the contract back above $61.

The December quarter earnings season wrapped up with retail reports. Home Depot disclosed a very strong fourth-quarter report, with earnings and revenue above expectations and solid comps. Both The Gap and TJX met expectations, hiked dividends and topped up share buyback programs, although Gap's FY guidance was not great. Target's fourth-quarter numbers were satisfactory but its first-quarter guidance was a bit soft. Macy's met all expectations and offered flattish guidance.

On the M&A front, Valeant Pharmaceuticals nabbed a hot biotech name, helping it recover from the loss of Allergan. On Sunday Valeant reached a deal to acquire gastrointestinal drug firm Salix Pharmaceuticals in an all-cash deal valued at about $10 billion. The companies said the deal had an enterprise value of $14.5 billion, which would include Salix's debt and any cash on hand. Valeant will pay around $158/share.

China returned from a week-long holiday break to a surprise rebound in the February HSBC flash manufacturing PMI reading. The report popped back into expansion territory after two months in contraction, although the report featured a contraction in export orders for the first time since April of last year. The PBoC approved an additional 0.5% of RRR rate cuts for several urban banks that was estimated to release up to CNY100B of liquidity into the system. The central bank also injected another CNY38B through its regular open market operations via 14-day reverse repos. The Shanghai Composite rallied 2.5% on the week.

On balance, the February Japan economic data signaled that policymakers' cheerleading of the economy has yielded little progress. The jobless rate rose to a four-month high after falling to 17-year lows last month despite reports of tightening labor conditions ahead of spring wage talks. Household spending fell for the 10th straight month, while the drop in retail sales was worse than expected. CPI figures - the most closely monitored metric for its potential implication on BOJ policy - were similarly unimpressive. Nationwide, core CPI hit a 10-month low of 2.2%, and stripping away the tax increase impact core CPI fell to just 0.2% from 0.5% in December. There were press reports about an emerging rift between Prime Minister Abe and BOJ Governor Kuroda, and there is talk Kuroda is also uneasy about the government's plan to raise the sales tax in 2017.

Feb 27 2105

Not too active but still positive day, finishing almost perfect week and decent month. 


Session Time: Fri Feb 27 00:00:00 2015
[08:55] {dino> gm
01[08:55] {@Threei>  dino :)
[08:58] {dino> 3i, it's a heat wave, was only -3 f when i got up at 6 am, now a sweltering 6f
01[08:59] {@Threei>  wow
01[08:59] {@Threei>  lol
01[09:06] {@Threei>  allow me to start the day with exceptionally original, totally unexpected and really susprizing news:
01[09:06] {@Threei>  - (GR) Reportedly a third rescue package remains a possibility for Greece as it could need over €30B over the next 2 years
01[09:07] {@Threei>  who could have thought
[09:12] {cosmo> I was thinking interest free
[09:12] {dino> only 30b?
01[09:12] {@Threei>  it's a small country, dino :)
[09:13] {dino> heck, why doesn't germany just buy the country
01[09:14] {@Threei>  they already did, twice over
01[09:14] {@Threei>  now they just haggle over demand to pay thrid time for their purchase
[09:25] {dino> hawk down again
[09:25] {RonS> gm
01[09:25] {@Threei>  ron :)
01[09:29] {@Threei>  Upside:
01[09:29] {@Threei>  -ABTL +18% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei>  -SREV +18% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei>  -CLNE +14% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei>  -MNST +10% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei>  -SD +8.5% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei>  -ARUN +7% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei>  -TTPH +6% (momentum ahead of eps report)
01[09:29] {@Threei>  -ROST +5% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei>  -OVTI +5% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei>  Downside:
01[09:29] {@Threei>  -WTW -19% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei>  -JCP -15% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei>  -TUBE -15% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei>  -PBPB -8% (CFO resigns, moves to another company)
01[09:29] {@Threei>  -DFGR -7% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei>  -NVAX -5% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei>  -CYBR -3.3% (files registration statement for proposed secondary offering)
01[09:29] {@Threei>  -CROX -2.7% (earnings)
01[09:33] {@Threei> Short Setup: FB  .75 break
01[09:33] {@Threei>  If holds  .85
01[09:33] {@Threei>  Invalidated
01[09:35] {@Threei> Long Setup:  VXX  .70 break
01[09:35] {@Threei>  If holds  .65
01[09:39] {@Threei> Short Setup: FB  .10 break
01[09:40] {@Threei>  ugh... late
01[09:40] {@Threei>  meh VXX
01[09:40] {@Threei>  FB got away
01[09:45] {@Threei>  *(US) FEB CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER: 45.8 V 58.0E -
01[09:45] {@Threei> Long Setup:  FB  .50 break
01[09:45] {@Threei>  If holds  .40
01[09:46] {@Threei> Long Setup:  FB  .20 break
01[09:46] {@Threei>  If holds  .10
01[09:47] {@Threei>  1:1
[09:48] {RonS> Chicago PMI 45.8,  down from 59.4, LOWEST SINCE JULY 2009
01[09:49] {@Threei>  nice recovery
01[09:49] {@Threei>  FB same setup again
01[09:51] {@Threei>  heavy
01[09:52] {@Threei>  no go this time
[09:55] {jfjf64> Gm all
01[09:55] {@Threei>  jf :)
[09:57] {RonS> sndk spike
[09:58] {jfjf64> S .85 sndk
[09:59] {jfjf64> If holds
01[10:00] {@Threei>  *(US) FEB FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 95.4 V 94.0E
01[10:00] {@Threei>  10:00 *(US) JAN PENDING HOME SALES M/M: 1.7% V 2.0%E; Y/Y: 6.5% V 8.7%E
[10:04] {jfjf64> Nice find ronnie
[10:05] {dino> isis calls added
[10:05] {jfjf64> Kiss watchin
[10:05] {jfjf64> Kss
[10:07] {jfjf64> .70 break fb
[10:08] {jfjf64> 1/1
[10:09] {jfjf64> 1/2
01[10:12] {@Threei>  wtg
[10:12] {jfjf64> Ty
[10:13] {jfjf64> Missed kss
[10:13] {dino> gj
[10:13] {RonS> heavy call buying in the 3/6 strikes sndk...do not short this imo
[10:13] {jfjf64> .10 break
01[10:13] {@Threei>  that's OK jf, we all missed one or two ksses in our life
[10:13] {jfjf64> Lol
[10:14] {jfjf64> Sndk made nice base o pb looks higher
[10:16] {dino> data pulp
[10:17] {RonS> must be printed on paper?
01[10:17] {@Threei> Short Setup: FB  .70 break
01[10:17] {@Threei>  If holds  .80
01[10:17] {@Threei>  aggressive for .60 total breakdown
[10:17] {dino> sheesh
[10:17] {RonS> eyes bugging out
01[10:17] {@Threei>  that was actually good Ron
01[10:18] {@Threei>  I mean data pulp printed on paper
01[10:20] {@Threei>  Invalidated
[10:22] {RonS> asps ocn down again
[10:27] {dino> at some point i would think takeover on asps
[10:29] {RonS> akrx blowoff move?
01[10:29] {@Threei>  FB again
[10:29] {RonS> hmmm, akrx 12% float short
01[10:29] {@Threei>  same setup
01[10:29] {@Threei>  .70 break short
[10:30] {dino> data sm l .67
[10:30] {dino> .76
01[10:31] {@Threei>  invalidated again
01[10:31] {@Threei>  poor BBRY, even Russia doesn't want it anymore
01[10:31] {@Threei>  [BBRY] Vimpelcom reportedly intends to halt the connection of new Blackberry clients - Russia press - VIP also plans to double service costs for existing Blackberry users, effective March 2nd
01[10:32] {@Threei>  since Russia damned AAPL too when CEO came out of closet, they probably are going back to rotary phones
[10:33] {cosmo> I miss rotary dial btw
01[10:33] {@Threei>  I do too, especially ever since that joke came out
[10:34] {cosmo> its reality
01[10:34] {@Threei>  - hi, is this 555 -5555? could you please call 911 for me?
01[10:34] {@Threei>  - ????
01[10:34] {@Threei>  - well, my finger stuck in 5, I need paramedics...
01[10:35] {@Threei>  speaking of AAPL... AAPL CEO Cook: Apple Watch could bring about a tech revolution similar to the iPhone; asserts the battery will last all day
[10:35] {cosmo> just like the only time I ever went bowling
01[10:35] {@Threei>  lol
[10:36] {jfjf64> Twtr l.15
01[10:37] {@Threei> Short Setup: FB  .60 break
01[10:37] {@Threei>  If holds  .70
01[10:38] {@Threei>  that .70 idea was the right one, just never shaped up right
01[10:39] {@Threei>  1:1
[10:40] {jfjf64> .60 long I'm going
[10:40] {jfjf64> F with us
01[10:41] {@Threei>  what about GM?
[10:42] {jfjf64> Lol I'm sayin fb fu ked with us
[10:42] {jfjf64> Still is
01[10:43] {@Threei>  sorry, I just converse with Ron for too long
[10:43] {jfjf64> Lol
[10:51] {dino> wday sm l .08 stop lod
[10:51] {jfjf64> AAPL l .90 break
[10:51] {jfjf64> Invalid
[10:53] {jfjf64> Airs pushin up
[10:54] {jfjf64> Akrx
[10:55] {dino> bita drop
[10:56] {jfjf64> Yum pushin up
[10:58] {RonS> blox tackled
[10:59] {jfjf64> .50. S yum
[11:00] {dino> wday stopped
[11:01] {jfjf64> Invalid
[11:01] {jfjf64> Gonna nail one of these
[11:04] {jfjf64> Alex got away
[11:05] {jfjf64> Akrx
01[11:11] {@Threei> Short Setup: MCD  99 break
01[11:12] {@Threei>  If holds  .10
[11:13] {jfjf64> Yum s .70
[11:14] {jfjf64> Inv
[11:14] {dino> wday rinsed
[11:27] {RonS> bita not sweet
[11:27] {jfjf64> .30 l hlf
[11:29] {jfjf64> 1/1
01[11:29] {@Threei>  no Ron... just say no
[11:30] {jfjf64> 1/2
[11:30] {RonS> gj
[11:31] {jfjf64> I'm out
[11:31] {jfjf64> Ty
[11:33] {dino> gj
01[11:42] {@Threei>  1:1
[11:42] {jfjf64> McDonald's go heavy
[11:42] {jfjf64> Got heavy
[11:43] {jfjf64> Didn't realize ya were still in vg
01[11:43] {@Threei>  1:2
[11:43] {jfjf64> Dieeeeee
01[11:43] {@Threei>  why wouldn't I
01[11:43] {@Threei>  stop was never hit
01[11:44] {@Threei>  trade remained valid
[11:44] {jfjf64> .78 support
[11:44] {jfjf64> I know da rules boss
[11:44] {jfjf64> Lol
[11:47] {jfjf64> Boy .78 a wall
01[11:48] {@Threei>  closed last piece on a trail
[11:49] {jfjf64> Let's keep on radar
[11:49] {jfjf64> When that .78 breaks
[11:49] {jfjf64> Then lod then diee
[11:50] {jfjf64> Maybe
[11:50] {jfjf64> Lol
[11:51] {jfjf64> Hmm
[11:51] {jfjf64> .77 thinkin
[11:52] {jfjf64> ?
01[11:53] {@Threei>  nah
[11:54] {jfjf64> Fb.30 break l
[11:55] {jfjf64> 1/1
[12:06] {jfjf64> 1/2
01[12:07] {@Threei>  wtg
[12:07] {jfjf64> Ty
[12:08] {jfjf64> McDonald's .77 will try last trade day
[12:09] {jfjf64> Naa
[12:09] {jfjf64> All enjoy weekend ty
[12:09] {jfjf64> Vg
[12:10] {RonS> cya jf
01[12:10] {@Threei>  take care jf
[12:10] {jfjf64> See monday
[12:11] {jfjf64> Lod
[12:11] {jfjf64> I hate you mcd
01[12:20] {@Threei>  MCD won't accept jf in its shops anymore I guess
01[12:35] {@Threei> Short Setup: FB  .20 break
01[12:35] {@Threei>  If holds  .30
01[12:42] {@Threei>  Spock has died
[12:43] {RonS> ya
[12:44] {RonS> ...he was russian...heritage
[12:46] {RonS> saw him introduce the cd for Phillips in Seattle in 82 or 3...seemed like a nice guy...great voice
[12:51] {RonS> crox snappy
[12:53] {RonS> data bad
[12:56] {RonS> clne up on aisle 9
[12:56] {RonS> ocn bouncing
01[13:02] {@Threei> Short Setup: TWTR  .83 break
01[13:02] {@Threei>  a bit fast
01[13:02] {@Threei>  let's cancel and wait for bounce
[13:19] {RonS> crude -$ since rig report 48.61
[13:20] {RonS> -$1
01[13:21] {@Threei>  there was an exchange somwhere on the net couple days ago, coming to: plenty of tankers with oil are in various stages of delivery, delayed as much as possible, in hope for price recovery,
01[13:22] {@Threei>  and since it's very expensive to keep them, sooner rather than later all this glut will hit the market
01[13:22] {@Threei>  and 40, 30 and below is not out of question
01[13:22] {@Threei>  can't estimate how true that is of course
[13:23] {RonS> data keeps getting worse...
[13:26] {RonS> eyes blinding
[13:29] {dino> mygalloons.com
[13:29] {dino> mygallons.com
[13:31] {RonS> nutz, not a porn site... lol
01[13:31] {@Threei>  lol
[13:33] {RonS> anip dip
[14:22] {RonS> wow, now crude running to $50
[14:22] {dino> ttph blood
[14:26] {RonS> eyes poked
01[14:27] {@Threei>  lol
[14:29] {dino> ttph hl l .99
[14:37] {RonS> "Great minds discuss ideas. Average minds discuss events. Small minds discuss people." - Eleanor Roosevelt
01[14:38] {@Threei>  and who discusses Eleanor Roosevelt?
01[14:43] {@Threei>  no news
01[14:43] {@Threei>  sudden market drop
01[14:45] {@Threei>  watching VXX for enty on pullback, around .60
[14:45] {dino> out ttph .42, +.43
01[14:47] {@Threei>  wtg
[14:51] {dino> ty
[14:54] {RonS> dino, fwiw somehow Fidelity has been getting me market order fills on buys close to the bids and sells close to the offer...for instance i got ttph at .91 and sold at .55...between the two trades the spread was 14 cents...the buy .08 and the sell .06...they also only charge $7.95
[14:58] {RonS> ...also thinking both of us should review Options House... $4.95 stock trade charges and cheap options charges...they are now using the OptionMonster platform now that they are mereged with that company...again fwiw
01[15:00] {@Threei>  wow
01[15:01] {@Threei>  VXX
[15:01] {dino> not moving my stsmartpro, i like the free charts and free scanners. as for options, i use optionshouse/optionmonster
[15:02] {RonS> do they have directed options trading there?
[15:06] {dino> stsmart? yes
01[15:06] {@Threei>  messy chart... no clear entry yet
[15:07] {RonS> no...options house
[15:07] {RonS> ?
[15:08] {dino> its the former optionsmonster, they have directed services you can subscribe to if that is what you mean
[15:08] {dino> i don't use them, i trade my mind
[15:08] {RonS> why subscribe?  isn't it a platform feature?
[15:08] {dino> not sure
[15:08] {dino> i've seen sub services on it
[15:09] {RonS> directed options trading means directing your trade to a specific exchange...
[15:09] {dino> lol, sorry. not sure
[15:09] {RonS> same thing for stock, which is pretty standard...
[15:10] {dino> i rarely hit the ask am always near bid
[15:10] {dino> patience
01[15:15] {@Threei> Long Setup:  VXX  .80 break
01[15:15] {@Threei>  If holds  ,70
01[15:21] {@Threei>  nah
01[15:30] {@Threei>  if I hear about the color of that dress one more time, I will be drinking myself into oblivion for a month
01[15:30] {@Threei>  what is it, mass lapse of reason?
[15:31] {dino> you asking the wrong guy, color blind
01[15:31] {@Threei>  hehe
01[15:31] {@Threei>  you are not taking part in the greatest debate of 21 century then
[15:32] {dino> nope, hardly ever get colors right
[15:32] {dino> found out in 2nd grade, i was coloring my xmas trees brown. teacher thought there was a problem at home
01[15:32] {@Threei>  wow... lol
[15:33] {dino> during golf season, my daughters' always saying,"dad, you can't wear that shirt with those shorts"
[15:34] {dino> wow wtw
[15:34] {RonS> isn't that why Johnny Cash only wore black?
[15:35] {RonS> of course for golf you would burn up...
[15:36] {RonS> wtw get thinner?
[15:36] {RonS> +s
[15:37] {dino> its funny, when you see the world as i do, you don't notice things.
[15:37] {dino> for example, in summer the grass is orange to me, in fall/winter it is green
[15:37] {dino> world is pretty bright in the summer
[15:39] {dino> always thought geranimals for adults would be helpful
[15:39] {RonS> will take your word for it but if you see the wrong colors how do you know the color you are seeing?  just wondering...
[15:40] {dino> because i lose orange things in the grass (dogs frisbie, those orange golf balls)
[15:40] {RonS> ah
[15:41] {dino> whenever i get orange golf balls for a gift, i re-gift them. cannot find them in the grass
01[15:41] {@Threei>  wow
01[15:41] {@Threei> Short Setup: FB  .70 break
[15:41] {dino> i am red/green deficeint
01[15:41] {@Threei>  If holds  ,80
01[15:42] {@Threei>  last attempt
[15:48] {dino> ual drop
[15:50] {RonS> adios amigos...
01[15:50] {@Threei>  ok guys, have a great weekend
01[15:50] {@Threei>  see you monday

Feb 26 2015

Another strong day with many nice wins, from scalps to 1:4. Very steady week so far.

Session Time: Thu Feb 26 00:00:00 2015
[08:31] {dino} gm
01[08:48] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:11] {_dezus111} hy
01[09:12] {@Threei}  morning dezus
01[09:14] {@Threei}  09:01 *(US) DEC FHFA HOUSE PRICE INDEX M/M: 0.8% V 0.5%E; Q/Q: 1.4% V 0.9% PRIOR
[09:16] {RonS} gm...wow dodged a bullet on LL 60 minutes piece this sunday & a doj criminal investigation
01[09:16] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:21] {jfjf64} Mornin all
01[09:22] {@Threei}  jf :)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -ATOS +38% (HSIC to offer ATOS's full CYTE breast aspirator)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -ELX +25% (agreed to be acquired by Avago for $8/shr)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -CYBX +21% (earnings & merging with Sorin Group)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -OCAT +17% (received two new patents for immune-modulatory cell technology)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -LBIO +17% (prices 8M share offering at $18/shr)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -STXS +15% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -CRM +13% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -GOGO +7% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -CLRX -33% (priced 2.36M shares at $1.27/shr)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -LKQ -11% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -PAA -5.2% (priced 21M share offering at $50/shr)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -NBL -3.8% (priced 21M shares at $47.50/shr)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -SFM -2% (earnings)
01[09:35] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .40 break
01[09:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:35] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:35] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:36] {@Threei}  1:3
[09:37] {jfjf64} Go fb
[09:38] {jfjf64} Wher stop .50
01[09:38] {@Threei}  .59
[09:38] {dino} gj
01[09:38] {@Threei}  ty
[09:38] {jfjf64} Ty
[09:38] {jfjf64} Ty
01[09:39] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MCD  .90 break
01[09:39] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[09:41] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:41] {@Threei}  1:3
01[09:41] {@Threei}  out
[09:41] {jfjf64} Ty
01[09:41] {@Threei}  yw
01[09:42] {@Threei}  FB 1:4
01[09:42] {@Threei}  out
[09:44] {jfjf64} Fb s .75
[09:44] {dino} hawk
[09:46] {jfjf64} No go
01[09:47] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .90 break
01[09:47] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
[09:49] {Nesi} hi all
01[09:49] {@Threei}  hey nesi
[09:49] {jfjf64} Fb rinsed me
[09:52] {jfjf64} Hawk bounce here
[09:52] {jfjf64} IMO
01[09:52] {@Threei}  trail TWTR to .84
01[09:52] {@Threei}  taking too long
[09:53] {jfjf64} Here we go
01[09:53] {@Threei}  now or never
01[09:53] {@Threei}  opening plays should develop faster
[09:56] {dino} 07 red
01[09:56] {@Threei}  out
[09:58] {jfjf64} You long hawk Dino
[09:59] {dino} not yet
[09:59] {jfjf64} In.75
[10:00] {dino} nice
[10:02] {dino} added asps calls
[10:04] {jfjf64} Nice find Dino hawk Ty
[10:04] {dino} wtg, you were in 36.75?
[10:05] {jfjf64} .76 to .83
[10:05] {jfjf64} Ran 1.00
[10:05] {dino} nice
01[10:06] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  28 break
01[10:06] {@Threei}  If holds  .95
[10:07] {jfjf64} S mcd .24
[10:07] {jfjf64} Nope
[10:08] {jfjf64} You rat
01[10:13] {@Threei}  1/2 out
01[10:14] {@Threei}  stop .99
[10:16] {dino} hawk drop
[10:16] {RonS} sheesh, s/b hawk dive...
[10:18] {jfjf64} Missed entry paa
[10:18] {jfjf64} Was watching
[10:18] {dino} bpt crushola
01[10:19] {@Threei}  frikin TWTR
01[10:19] {@Threei}  got away
[10:20] {jfjf64} Yes
[10:21] {jfjf64} Paa wanna shoot myself
[10:23] {jfjf64} Kss watching
01[10:26] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .40 break
01[10:26] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[10:31] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:31] {@Threei}  forgot to post, lol
06[10:33] * dino slaps Threei around a bit with a large trout
01[10:34] {@Threei}  that'll wake me up
[10:35] {jfjf64} I had entry kiss 73.10 missed totally wife talkin to me. F  k
[10:36] {jfjf64} Kss
[10:41] {dino} lol jf, but i totally get the distraction
[10:41] {dino} summer time trading tough in my house
[10:42] {jfjf64} The one min day we talk cost me
[10:42] {jfjf64} Lol
01[10:45] {@Threei}  reminds me... last summer, dinner in my backyard, friends couple invited. During dessert, conversation weers into kinky matters, wife asks: have you ever paid for sex? Husband, musingly: I still do... dearly
[10:45] {dino} ltm spike
[10:46] {dino} lol
[10:46] {jfjf64} So true 100%
[10:48] {dino} adding wday calls
[10:56] {jfjf64} Wday l .35
[10:57] {jfjf64} Grrr
[11:05] {dino} out true calls from thursday, +1.05 / 40%
[11:07] {dino} ctrx drop
[11:07] {jfjf64} Stt.90 break
[11:12] {dino} ctrx sm l .21
[11:14] {dino} ctrx stop .99 -.22
[11:14] {RonS} ctrx hit rough seas...
[11:16] {dino} how about wday got fired?
01[11:17] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .10 break
[11:18] {RonS} lol
[11:19] {dino} re-load ctrx .95 sm
01[11:19] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
[11:19] {jfjf64} Out stt -6 cents
01[11:21] {@Threei}  1:1
[11:25] {jfjf64} Hawk old
[11:26] {dino} hawk drop
[11:26] {dino} opps
[11:26] {jfjf64} Lod
[11:26] {jfjf64} I'm on I pad
[11:26] {jfjf64} Typing
[11:26] {jfjf64} Lol
[11:27] {dino} nxst drop, hell of a daily
[11:30] {RonS} unreal ctrx approached my .65 offer and rolled back sob...
[11:31] {RonS} jesus...again
[11:32] {dino} nxst sm l .50
[11:33] {RonS} finally ctrx out .65 +.75 thanks for the idea dino
[11:34] {dino} there you go
[11:34] {dino} gj
[11:35] {jfjf64} Very nice
01[11:37] {@Threei}  wtg
[11:40] {RonS} sad, not funny:  you know its been a long, snowy winter when @Briefingcom is using the term "snowdrift" to describe market moves!
[11:40] {jfjf64} Hawk l .22
01[11:41] {@Threei}  nah, it's still funny
[11:43] {RonS} when you are on the outside... ya bastid  :)
01[11:43] {@Threei}  and enjoying every second of it
01[11:44] {@Threei}  after all, I paid for this right by living in Winnipeg for 10 years :)
01[11:44] {@Threei}  I mean, people were sent to this kind of climes for horrible crimes...
[11:45] {RonS} when i lived near Portland i can remember several 6-7 week periods in Feb-Mar when the sun never came out... even the natives were bitching
01[11:45] {@Threei}  yeah, that's Portland
01[11:46] {@Threei}  but scroll through my Jan and Feb photos of Victoria
01[11:46] {@Threei}  all the sun you want
[11:46] {RonS} so, Victoria weather more like Sequim?
01[11:46] {@Threei}  can't tell, not familiar with Sequim
01[11:47] {@Threei}  wa have about half of Vancouver rains
[11:47] {RonS} wtf, it's just across the Strait... lol
01[11:47] {@Threei}  and a few degrees warmer
01[11:47] {@Threei}  well, it's not that straightforward
01[11:47] {@Threei}  there is a warm current going right through the sound,
[11:48] {RonS} then Straitforward
01[11:48] {@Threei}  which creates a rain curtain of sorts
[11:48] {RonS} rain curtain?
01[11:48] {@Threei}  plus rain shadow from mountains on another side
01[11:48] {@Threei}  think warm air flow in the doorway
01[11:49] {@Threei}  creating a "curtain"
[11:49] {RonS} so, rain blocked then...that is what Sequim has...
01[11:49] {@Threei}  so, mountain on one side, warm air from current on another, and you have a nice microclimate zone for south end of the island
[11:50] {RonS} very nice...
[11:52] {dino} you trying to piss me off with the nice weather talk? was -5 f at 6 am this morning
01[11:52] {@Threei}  all that is enough for palm trees, rhododendrons, and we have cherry trees blooming for about two weeks already
[11:53] {RonS} Denver will break all time Feb snowfall this month...  has not been like Boston though...sheesh
01[11:55] {@Threei}  let's compare rain:
01[11:55] {@Threei}  Thanks to the rain shadow effect of the nearby Olympic Mountains, Victoria is the driest location on the British Columbia coast, with much lower rainfall than other nearby areas. Total annual precipitation is just 608 mm
01[11:55] {@Threei}  Sequim lies within the rain shadow of the Olympic Mountains and receives on average less than 16 inches (410 mm) of rain per year
01[11:55] {@Threei}  we have some more then
[11:55] {RonS} 3i, digested breakfast yet?
01[11:56] {@Threei}  yes, why?
[11:56] {RonS} The Kardashians Just Got the Largest Reality-TV Contract Ever http://vult.re/1FxtwQx
01[11:56] {@Threei}  oh god...
[11:56] {RonS} :)
[11:56] {RonS} lol
01[11:56] {@Threei}  vult.re?
01[11:56] {@Threei}  rather re.vult
[11:56] {RonS} lol  perfect
06[11:56] * @Threei takes a bow
01[12:14] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .80 break
01[12:15] {@Threei}  change to .70
01[12:15] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[12:18] {@Threei}  no go
[12:19] {dino} 07 red
01[12:51] {@Threei}  drops and bounces with no setups or news
[13:10] {dino} ctrx to .05
[13:12] {dino} out ctrx .09, +1.14
[13:15] {RonS} gj
01[13:16] {@Threei}  wtg
01[13:19] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .50 break
01[13:19] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[13:19] {@Threei}  1:1
[13:20] {dino} ty
01[13:20] {@Threei}  yw
[13:20] {dino} out nxst ave .79, +.29
01[13:21] {@Threei}  1:2
01[13:22] {@Threei}  perfect timing, if I may say so myself
01[13:22] {@Threei}  and even if I may not
01[13:38] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .50 break
01[13:38] {@Threei}  again, same setup
01[13:39] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .50 break
01[13:39] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[13:49] {@Threei}  1:1  FB
[13:55] {RonS} scanner crawling...
[14:07] {RonS} pvh zippered
01[14:12] {@Threei}  1:2  VXX
[14:13] {dino} gj
01[14:13] {@Threei}  ty
01[14:15] {@Threei}  1:3
[14:15] {RonS} gj
01[14:15] {@Threei}  )
01[14:15] {@Threei}  :
[14:16] {dino} -
01[14:16] {@Threei}  that was one crooked smile, lol
[14:16] {RonS} crude 47.88
01[14:19] {@Threei}  1:4
01[14:19] {@Threei}  out
01[14:21] {@Threei}  too bad FB rinsed second half
01[14:22] {@Threei}  would have been one more 1:3er
[14:40] {Nesi} vad, what does 1.4 1.2 etc ...means
[14:41] {RonS} loss risk 10 cents... 1:1 +.10, 1:2 +.20 etc...
01[14:42] {@Threei}  http://www.realitytrader.com/tradingroom/#instructions
[14:42] {Nesi} thx
01[14:42] {@Threei}  which I already gave you twice and you promised to read :)
[14:42] {Nesi} :s
01[14:42] {@Threei}  well, that's even more crooked smile than the one I displayed
[14:42] {dino} vad handing out home work
01[14:43] {@Threei}  hehe
01[15:26] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .25 break
01[15:26] {@Threei}  If holds  .15
01[15:28] {@Threei}  to .19
01[15:29] {@Threei}  1:1
01[15:36] {@Threei}  Ok guys, nice day, eneding it here
01[15:36] {@Threei}  thank you, have a greate evening
01[15:36] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow