Market Week Wrap-up

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Payrolls Still Rolling, ECB Starts QE, China Slows Growth
Fri, 06 Mar 2015 16:21 PM EST

- The week hinged on big announcements out of top Chinese officials and the ECB, as well as the latest US jobs report. The PBoC started the week off with another unscheduled rate cut, which helped soften the blow of Premier Li confirming a lower GDP growth target for 2015. The ECB offered up operational details for its quantitative easing program and said it would begin next week. The dollar index, already at a decade high, gained more strength in the wake of another solid US employment report bringing Fed rate lift off closer to reality. US Treasury yields moved up across the curve, the 2-10 year spread widened 150 basis points, and the US benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is now up on the year at 2.24%. On Monday, the Nasdaq Composite crested the 5,000 mark for the first time since the year 2000 tech bubble popped, but that marked the top for the week as the Nasdaq dropped 0.7%, the DJIA lost 1.5%, and the S&P500 fell 1.6%.

- Heading into the trading week risk appetite was getting a tailwind from another surprise PBoC rate and the anticipation of the launch of ECB QE. Early on, the USD maintained a firm tone against most currencies with the Dollar Index hitting fresh 11-year highs. By Thursday the ECB confirmed that it would begin its QE purchases on March 9th and that the program would indeed purchase government bonds with negative yields, sending the Euro below 1.10 and European bond yields to fresh record lows.

- Another stellar US employment report Friday only fueled the USD rally. The USD/JPY approached 3-week highs and tested near the 121 handle. The Yen weakness encouraged some verbal intervention when a Japanese government advisor stated that the pair's present levels were in the "upper limit of comfort zone." Emerging market currencies also remained highly sensitive to US Fed expectations. The USD/BRL tested above 3.03 level (weakest Real level since 2004), and the South Africa Rand hit 13 year lows as USD/ZAR approached the 12 neighborhood.

- In announcing the details of the QE program, ECB President Draghi reiterated the €60B of monthly bond purchases will continue at least through September 2016, and until inflation approaches the target level of just under 2%. The ECB will buy government bonds with negative yields up to the Deposit Rate (which is presently -0.20%). ECB staff projections revised 2015 inflation forecasts to 0.0% from +0.7% prior (citing much lower oil), with 2016 revised up to 1.5% from 1.3% and initial 2017 projections set at 1.8%, right in line with Draghi's central objective for QE.

- Despite the bailout extension agreed upon last week, things are looking dire in Greece. Tax collection is lagging badly and some reports suggest the nation could run out of money in mid-to-late March, though officials in Athens vowed they will have no problems making their March debt payments. Despite repeated denials by European officials and Syriza's election promises, there has been talk about initial plans for a third Greek bailout package.

- The Fed released the results of its annual stress tests on major financial institutions and to the surprise of some analysts all 31 passed the initial hurdle, having adequate capital even in the greatest stress scenario. Zions Bancorp, the only bank that failed the stress test last year, scraped by with a capital ratio just above its required level. Surprisingly, Goldman Sachs also had a close call as its total risk based capital ratio in the stress scenario came in at just one-tenth of a percent higher than the minimum requirement, compared to other Wall Street Banks which had an average cushion of more than one percentage point. The greater test may come next week when the Fed announces whether it will accept the capital return plans of the banks (CCAR requests). Five banks had their CCAR plans rejected last year, most notably Citigroup, whose CEO has proclaimed his job is on the line this year.

- The February US jobs report on Friday backed up the spectacular January data with more solid results. Nonfarm payrolls added nearly 300 thousand net new jobs, keeping the four month average above that level. Unemployment fell to a seven year low of 5.5%, with a nice three-tenths drop in underemployment, though it was partly attributable to a fresh drop in the labor force participation rate. Wage inflation remains elusive; After a strong gain in last month's hourly earnings, February saw a meager 0.1% m/m rise in wages, half of the expected gain.

- WTI crude prices traded somewhat higher mid- week, rising as high as $52.40 from around $49 on Monday, but remained within the range seen over the course of February. Dollar strengthening brought WTI back to the low end of that range on Friday. Crude inventories are reaching critical levels: the weekly EIA report saw the eighth consecutive build in stockpiles and biggest weekly rise in 14 years. A Citibank commodities analyst warned the US is running out of oil storage capacity and said WTI could fall to $20 if storage limits were reached. Brent pivoted around $60, held back by the growing possibility that a US/Iran nuclear deal could result in sanctions being lifted against Iran, creating a fresh surge of crude exports.

- February US auto sales were very uneven, with some big misses being chalked up to severe winter weather. Ford's sales declined nearly 2% y/y, compared to expectations for a 3-5% gain. Executive said there was a pronounced slowdown in the second half of February, which lines up with the major East Coast blizzards. Volkswagen saw its sales contract more than 5%, while Nissan's sales were up 2.7% compared to the more than 7% gain expected. GM was curiously not impacted, with Feb sales up right in line with estimates, while Fiat Chrysler was a bit slower than expected.

- Friday morning, it was announced that Apple will be added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, replacing AT&T, a move that was facilitated by Apple's decision to conduct a 7-1 stock split last year, making it a viable choice for the price weighted Dow. Apple will join the DJIA after the close of trading on March 18, becoming its fifth highest weighted component.

- The last of the big US retailers reported quarterly earnings this week. American Eagle gained more than 9% after modestly topping expectations and beating its own expectations for declining comps with a flat SSS reading. Abercrombie & Fitch tanked 14% after missing on revenue, declining to offer much in the way of guidance and generally offering pessimistic commentary. Costco offered solid quarterly results and good comps. On the confernce call, executives said the impact of West Coast port strike is mostly over and suggested it will take 4-8 weeks to clear backlogs at those ports.

- In M&A news, AbbVie reached a deal to acquire biotech name Pharmacyclics for about $21 billion, buying access to what is expected to be one of the world's top-selling cancer drugs, Imbruvica. The firm was reportedly engaged in a fierce bidding war against Johnson & Johnson and analysts condemned AbbVie for overpaying. Moreover, J&J already owns half of the future cash flow from Imbruvica, via a partnership deal signed long ago. Chip maker NXP Semi agreed to buy Freescale Semiconductor in a cash and stock deal valuing it at $11.8 billion. Hewlett-Packard reached a deal to acquire network access firm Aruba Networks for $3 billion in cash.

- China Premier Li Keqiang unveiled official projections for 2015 at the start of the National People's Congress that largely reflected recent market assessments of slowing growth and inflation. GDP target was set as a softer estimate of "around" 7% from 7.5% in 2014, trade growth was lowered to 6.0% from 7.5%, CPI forecast was lowered to 3.0% from 3.5%, and the M2 money supply growth target was set at 12% vs 13% prior. Along with the economic framework, Beijing offered a vision of improvement in some of the well-known social shortcomings: China regulators intend to formalize a banking deposit insurance system, broaden regulation of shadow banking and real estate, invest some CNY1.6T in further rail and water infrastructure development, build an additional 7.4M units of public housing, and shutter some of outdated coal facilities to help reduce carbon dioxide intensity by over 3%. The China Standing Committee also pledged to push forward yuan convertibility on capital account, broaden the use of FX reserves, and allow the Yuan to float more freely, even though analysts are skeptical over the extent to which regulators will widen the Yuan trading band. The announcement followed a weekend decision by the PBoC to cut 1-year lending and deposit interest rates by another 25 basis points, the 2nd rate cut in 3 months, while also raising the maximum rate on bank deposits. For the week, USD/CNY pushed out above CNY6.28, the weakest level for the currency since late 2012, and Shanghai Composite pared its recent rebound with a 2% slide.

Mar 06 2015

Very nice day to finish strong week. Mostly empty afternoon, but first half of the day gave enough good plays to make it worth our while.



Session Time: Fri Mar 06 00:00:00 2015

[09:07] {RonS} gm...hearing loonie .80 v $
01[09:07] {@Threei}  hi Ron
01[09:07] {@Threei}  yes
[09:08] {RonS} $aapl replaces $t in the Dow
01[09:10] {@Threei}  .80 is better than parity... but worse than it used to be, around 1.55
[09:11] {dino} gm
01[09:11] {@Threei}  dino :)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  - EU Official: Choreography seems to point to 3rd Greek bailout
01[09:19] {@Threei}  lol
01[09:19] {@Threei}  what does music conducting point to?
[09:20] {dino} ron, you take fl into earnings?
[09:21] {RonS} no...mistake...
[09:25] {dino} nor i, don't like buying into earnings
[09:26] {RonS} the thing is nke report is a great read on fl...watched it qtr after qtr...and never do anything  :(
01[09:27] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -AVEO +17% (earnings & announcement of Phase 2 results Tivozanib)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -LTM +14% (premarket strength attributed to LBO speculation)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -YY +9% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -MSO +8% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -SKUL +7% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -FNSR +6% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -FL +5.2% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -TFM +4.7% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -THO +3.5% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -BAC +2.5% (stress test results; C also up marginally)
[09:27] {RonS} plus the call buying was substantial
01[09:27] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -SSH -30% (update on US study of C-Pulse Heart Assist System)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -OREX -16% (top FDA official says Contrave data showing heart benefit are unreliable)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -CKP -15% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -GENE -14.5% (announced A$18.6M capital raise)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -LULU -3.5% (negative broker commentary)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -SPLS -2.2% (earnings)
01[09:32] {@Threei}  .l fb 81 break
01[09:33] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  81 break
01[09:33] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:33] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:34] {@Threei}  valid again
01[09:34] {@Threei}  violent bounce
01[09:35] {@Threei}  heavy
01[09:37] {@Threei}  no go
01[09:46] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  27 break
01[09:46] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:51] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:57] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .40 break
01[09:57] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
[10:00] {dino} lulu sm l .00
01[10:02] {@Threei}  no go
[10:10] {dino} out lulu .43, +.43
01[10:11] {@Threei}  nice
[10:12] {dino} ty
01[10:14] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .80 break
01[10:15] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[10:18] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:20] {@Threei}  1:2
[10:21] {RonS} good one 3i, thanks
01[10:21] {@Threei}  :)
01[10:23] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:27] {@Threei}  1:4 close enough, out
[10:28] {RonS} wow, bailed too early gj
01[10:28] {@Threei}  ty
[10:28] {RonS} took lulu .04 out .76 +.72  good one dino and thanks
[10:32] {dino} yw, gj
01[10:40] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .70 break
01[10:41] {@Threei}  If holds  .63
01[10:46] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:48] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:48] {@Threei}  1:3
01[11:01] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .20 break
01[11:01] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[11:06] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:10] {@Threei}  1:2
[11:11] {RonS} a beaut...
01[11:11] {@Threei}  :)
[11:11] {RonS} tick -1445
[11:16] {dino} vxx barely moving
01[11:23] {@Threei}  1:3
01[11:23] {@Threei}  out
[11:24] {dino} gj
01[11:24] {@Threei}  ty
01[11:24] {@Threei}  sweet day
01[11:41] {@Threei}  Feb employment report stirred things up. Following the data the US Greenback extended to fresh multi year highs while US rates backed up to levels last seen when the calendar changed to 2015
01[11:42] {@Threei}  Gold and oil prices have dipped likely pressured by the Dollar's latest leg higher and in anticipation of higher rates. Similarly dividend dependent sectors such as REITS, utilities and home builders have all under performed while asset managers and insurance companies have rallied
01[11:45] {@Threei}  wow... still out VXX too soon
[11:54] {dino} what are your guts feeling?
[11:54] {dino} more down?
[11:56] {dino} what am i, invisable?
01[11:58] {@Threei}  waren't we all
01[11:58] {@Threei}  -w
[11:58] {RonS} limited downside...no upside...
01[11:58] {@Threei}  feels like bottom is found for the time being
01[12:12] {@Threei}  Associated Press: Russia imports drop by more than a third
01[12:17] {@Threei}  dino, try yourself here: http://www.xrite.com/online-color-test-challenge
[12:22] {dino} that will take hours
[12:23] {dino} any word on nemo?, whens he coming back
01[12:23] {@Threei}  takes 5 minutes
01[12:24] {@Threei}  per him, "when in-house situation sorts itself out"
[12:25] {RonS} but he needs to find items that look similar to him...then find wife w/ q:  what color is this?  :)
01[12:25] {@Threei}  no wife, just honest results :)
[12:26] {dino} you kidding, still on first row
01[12:27] {@Threei}  well, you are supposed just to move them around accordingly to how you see them... without painstaking comparisons :)
[12:29] {dino} score 129
[12:30] {dino} low color acuity
01[12:32] {@Threei}  that's low... but not catastrophic
[12:34] {dino} i've never known different, so normal for me
[12:40] {RonS} ain't no Hellen Keller except on the golf course eh dino?
01[12:40] {@Threei}  large plays are over, looking for a scalps for the lunch time
[12:42] {dino} taking a break
01[12:43] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .10 break
01[12:43] {@Threei}  If holds  80
01[12:43] {@Threei}  1:1
01[12:48] {@Threei}  1:2
[12:49] {RonS} good one
01[12:49] {@Threei}  ty
01[12:49] {@Threei}  whole morning like this, or better
01[13:25] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .05 break
01[13:40] {@Threei}  sheesh... drop already, SPY
01[13:47] {@Threei}  lose .60 already
01[13:47] {@Threei}  let's trail to .99
01[13:52] {@Threei}  meh
01[13:52] {@Threei}  30 min break
[14:15] {RonS} dino, you there?
[14:19] {dino} yes
[14:21] {dino} whoosh down coming
[14:21] {RonS} missed the $ufs short...
01[14:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MCD  .30 break
[14:32] {RonS} wow ufs round trippin
01[14:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[14:33] {@Threei}  1:1
[14:36] {dino} crazy chart ufs
[14:37] {RonS} rumor about an mlp...
01[14:38] {@Threei}  [UFS] Reportedly received positive prelim ruling in an International Trade Commission (ITC) case
[14:38] {dino} lod
01[14:44] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .10 break
01[14:44] {@Threei}  If holds  121
[14:48] {dino} hrtg spike
01[15:00] {@Threei}  *(US) JAN CONSUMER CREDIT: $11.56B V $14.8BE
01[15:04] {@Threei}  1:1
01[15:19] {@Threei}  (GR) Greece govt looking to hold immediate talks with lenders regarding reform plan - financial press citing Greek ministers' letter - Report noting the request marks a softening of Athens position; Govt previously rejected talks with Troika toward implementation of reform.
[15:20] {RonS} ...says will pursue a new strategy...booze then schmooze...
01[15:21] {@Threei}  lol
01[15:24] {@Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .80 break
01[15:25] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[15:25] {@Threei}  wth trail to .86 after loss of .75
01[15:26] {@Threei}  oh god... time change this weekend
01[15:26] {@Threei}  hate it with passion
[15:26] {RonS} your fave
[15:29] {RonS} Indiana has counties that goes both ways...do it or not... study shows that those that do have greater energy consumption...proves the whole thing is bogus
01[15:29] {@Threei}  lol
01[15:31] {@Threei} Long Setup:  SLW
01[15:32] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .90 break
01[15:32] {@Threei}  If holds  80
01[15:32] {@Threei}  sorry SLW wrong script
01[15:32] {@Threei}  Invalidated  SLW
01[15:32] {@Threei}  die FB
01[15:32] {@Threei}  die dead
01[15:37] {@Threei}  let's trail to .96
01[15:38] {@Threei}  last moves are likely to be hectic
01[15:38] {@Threei}  don't want to get acught
01[15:38] {@Threei}  caught either
01[15:42] {@Threei}  meh
01[15:43] {@Threei}  OK guys, good day finishing decent week
01[15:43] {@Threei}  thank you, have a great weekend
[15:43] {RonS} good weekend to all
01[15:43] {@Threei}  see you Monday, an hour earlier...grrr
[15:45] {dino} gn all, holding vxx calls through weekend

Mar 05 2015

No fireworks but decent day, with some stops and a few good wins placing it on a positive side.

Session Time: Thu Mar 05 00:00:00 2015
01[09:08] {@Threei}  EUR/USD Euro hits fresh 11-year lows below 1.1020
[09:09] {dino} gm
01[09:09] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:10] {RonS} howdy
01[09:10] {@Threei}  ron :)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -KYTH +25% (FDA staff notes show ATX-101 presents a consistent & favorable safety profile)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -BIOL +22% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -EYES +20% (first successful implantation of the Argus II retinal prosthesis system)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -MVIS +14% (licensed PicoP display tech to Fortune Global 100 partner)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -CLDN +14% (initiated with Buy at Roth; expected to announce pivotal trial results from CUPID-2 trial in April '15)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -ARWR +11% (acquired NVS's RNAi R&D portfolio)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -TEAR +11% (announced $35M term loan agreement with CRG)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -PCYC +10% (being acquired by ABBV)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -VSLR +8.5% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -MAC +7.3% (SPG said to have made takeover approach)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -MLR +7% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -GDOT +6.3% (raised to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -KR +5.3% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -RNDY +5.7% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  - CSIQ +5% (earnings, to form YieldCo)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -MBLY +4.4% (hearing strength attributed to introduction of the 4th generation system-on-chip the Eye4 engineering samples of EyeQ4 expected by Q4 FY15)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -ERJ -14% (earnings and FCF may be negative in FY15 due to heavy investment spending)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -VNDA -7% (announced Tradipitant Phase 2 proof of concept study results)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -JOY -6.7% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -ABBV -6% (acquiring PCYC)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -HRB -4.3% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -ACHN -4% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -ARI -3.8% (offering 10M shares of common stock)
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .55 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
01[09:32] {@Threei}  nah
01[09:33] {@Threei}  got away
01[09:35] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .10 break
01[09:35] {@Threei}  If holds  122
01[09:36] {@Threei}  hmm
[09:36] {dino} mkt feels heavy
01[09:37] {@Threei}  closed gap
01[09:38] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .45 break
01[09:39] {@Threei}  If holds  .35
01[09:40] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:41] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:46] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .20 break
01[09:47] {@Threei}  wow TWTR
01[09:47] {@Threei}  Invalidated  VXX
[09:50] {dino} out isis calls from 2/27, +2.23 / 53%
01[09:50] {@Threei}  wtg
01[09:51] {@Threei}  ZU Hearing some vague takeover chatter
[09:51] {dino} ty
01[09:51] {@Threei}  I bet isis wishes they chose another symbol
[09:52] {dino} no kidding
[09:53] {dino} need to be bought out just because of that
01[09:53] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .95 break
01[09:53] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[10:01] {@Threei}  *(US) JAN FACTORY ORDERS: -0.2% V 0.2%E
01[10:01] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:02] {jfjf64} Hey mornin all
[10:03] {dino} capn hl l .45
01[10:03] {@Threei}  hey jf
[10:03] {jfjf64} See off to good start
[10:03] {jfjf64} Good
01[10:04] {@Threei}  TWTR was nice
[10:05] {jfjf64} Yeah great chart
01[10:10] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .80 break
01[10:10] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[10:14] {@Threei}  jf, see private message
[10:24] {dino} capn stop .15 -.30
02[10:25] * Disconnected
Session Close: Thu Mar 05 10:25:07 2015

Session Start: Thu Mar 05 10:25:07 2015
Session Ident: #discussions
02[10:25] * Attempting to rejoin channel #discussions
03[10:25] * Rejoined channel #discussions
01[10:29] {Threei}  trail to .74
[10:36] {dino} capn hl l .95 last try
01[10:44] {Threei}  market stalled
01[10:46] {Threei}  1:1
[10:48] {jfjf64} Go capn Dino
[10:52] {jfjf64} Athm s here
[10:53] {dino} :)
[10:56] {jfjf64} You still in
[10:59] {dino} y
[10:59] {jfjf64} Good job
[10:59] {dino} didn't expect such violent vwap rejection
[11:00] {jfjf64} Athm shook me out
[11:10] {jfjf64} Twtr .90 break
[11:14] {dino} kicking you out again huh jf
[11:14] {jfjf64} Yup
01[11:14] {Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .30 break
[11:14] {jfjf64} Athm down 1.00
01[11:14] {Threei}  sorry jg... but I have to enetrtain myself somehow while market is slow
01[11:14] {Threei}  jf
[11:15] {jfjf64} R you gonna dance for us
01[11:15] {Threei}  I prefer kicking out those who make such suggestions
[11:16] {jfjf64} Lol
01[11:16] {Threei}  "real men don't dance. Does Arnold dance?"
01[11:16] {Threei}  "Hell, Arnold barely walks!"
01[11:16] {Threei}  1:1
[11:16] {jfjf64} Cap'n take $ and run Dino
[11:19] {jfjf64} Iwm .60
01[11:19] {Threei}  1:2
[11:19] {jfjf64} Break
[11:19] {jfjf64} Go fb
[11:21] {dino} out capn .72, +.77
[11:22] {RonS} kneecapn, eh?  gj
[11:22] {jfjf64} Gm
[11:22] {jfjf64} Gj
[11:24] {dino} ty
[11:28] {jfjf64} Not loosin money Iwm stop .60
[11:30] {jfjf64} Now it will go
[11:30] {jfjf64} Mf
[11:34] {dino} lol
[11:35] {jfjf64} Can't make this up today
[11:36] {jfjf64} Reads r  right
[11:36] {jfjf64} Mkt is mkt
01[11:46] {Threei}  The ECB outlined details of its shiny new QE program, helping European equities rack up very good gains today. US markets followed Europe higher, however they have given up gains as Europe closes.
01[11:46] {Threei}  ECB President Draghi outlined the details of the ECB's bond buying program at the post rate decision press conference this morning. Draghi said bond purchases would begin on March 9th and continue until at least September 2016, although he clarified that the central objective will be to get inflation to just under bank's 2.0% threshold. ECB staff projections revised 2015 inflation forecasts to 0.0% from +0.7% prior (citing much lower oil)
[11:54] {jfjf64} Hyh .10 break
[11:56] {RonS} gone to a typing lesson?
01[11:56] {Threei}  rofl
[11:57] {RonS} spelling tutorial?
[12:12] {dino} wow jf
[12:18] {dino} capn drop
01[12:24] {Threei}  EUR/USD Tests below 1.10 for first time since Sept 2003
01[12:25] {Threei}  parity on the horizon
[12:29] {jfjf64} Was lookin at 40 break Iwm
01[12:44] {Threei}  Russia had 2.2 percent inflation in February, annual rate hits 16.5 percent
[12:46] {RonS} dino, FL reports pre tomorrow...lots of call buying in the name yesterday but now selloff...stalking reversal here for an eod run
[12:50] {dino} ty, on screen
[12:50] {dino} 07 red
[13:30] {dino} slow
[13:33] {jfjf64} Hyh s .25
[13:35] {RonS} hyh jf .50
[13:36] {RonS} thinking he was saying hi to me w/ a quarter...returned the favor and doubled it...
[13:37] {jfjf64} Lol
01[13:38] {Threei}  hmmm
01[13:38] {Threei}  you guys are getting weirder by minute :)
[13:38] {RonS} boreder more like it...
01[13:38] {Threei}  that too
[13:41] {dino} is that a word?
01[13:42] {Threei}  boreder?
01[13:42] {Threei}  of course
01[13:43] {Threei}  you get bored, then boreder, then boredest
01[13:43] {Threei}  come on fino, get with the program.... get programer... then programest
01[13:43] {Threei}  dino
[13:44] {dino} lol
[13:44] {jfjf64} Dino stalking fl
[13:45] {dino} watching it
[13:45] {dino} doesn't move
[13:48] {jfjf64} Nothing going on but don't want to go outside and dig out. Snow    Snower   Snowiest
[13:49] {jfjf64} Drink  drink more.  Drink lots
[13:50] {dino} same here jf, too much snow....but as for te drink, i could be persuaded
[13:56] {RonS} omg, finally have something to do...
[13:57] {RonS} leftover spaghetti for lunch...now get to sit around and belch...
[13:57] {jfjf64} Drink
[13:57] {jfjf64} Lol
[14:02] {RonS} lol...I was offered sex today by a 26 year old woman.  In exchange i was supposed to advertise some sort of bathroom cleaner on my facebook.  of course i declined because of my morals and strong will power. Which is just as strong as Ajaz, the super stong bathroom cleaner.  Now available scented with lemon or vanilla.
[14:03] {jfjf64} Aapl .55 s
01[14:03] {Threei}  lol
[14:11] {RonS} 3i, if talk to ese...tell him about all he missed on mack...
01[14:14] {Threei}  avtually will talk to him next week
[14:14] {jfjf64} I'm gonna go shovel   Talk to all soon gonna take some time off   All be good.   Ty 3i for all    Ill be back
01[14:14] {Threei}  we have a local project to do together
01[14:15] {Threei}  as strange as it sounds, to do a business project with socialist musician :)
01[14:15] {Threei}  and unionized teacher
01[14:15] {Threei}  be safe jf
[14:16] {dino} cya jf
[14:17] {dino} when you coming back jf, days? weeks?
[14:18] {dino} 3i, heat wave here, 24 degrees f
01[14:18] {Threei}  wow
[14:18] {dino} only going to -2 tonight
01[14:18] {Threei}  need suscreen?
[14:18] {dino} next week i will
[14:18] {dino} jamaica
01[14:18] {Threei}  :)
[14:19] {dino} leave friday the 13th. going away for my 50th b-day. i am getting old
01[14:20] {Threei}  nah
01[14:20] {Threei}  50 is new 30
01[14:20] {Threei}  ok, 33
[14:20] {dino} well, then i guess i'm ok
01[14:21] {Threei}  you are... dunno about 30, but I am certainly in better shape than I was at, say 43
[14:22] {dino} thats great. i need to lose about 30 more pounds, down 15 since january 3rd
01[14:23] {Threei}  certainly doable
01[14:23] {Threei}  not easy but doable
[14:23] {dino} in 5th place out of 25 in that ymca weight loss contest where they publish your % loss/gain each week
[14:23] {RonS} tough in the winter...but myabe spring will happen...
01[14:24] {Threei}  let me throw one thing your way to look into, helps immendely with both weight loss and physical shape, and takes less time than many other ways... let me find a link
[14:24] {dino} well, goal is to be at 200 by july carribean cruise, so we will see. that would have me down 30 altogether
01[14:25] {Threei}  http://www.tabataprotocol.com/
[14:26] {dino} ok, on the site, i will read it
01[14:26] {Threei}  difficult to believe how effective this thing is... seeems easy but if you do it right, you feel like you are going to die... for about 5 min, then you are OK :)
[14:27] {dino} i will check it out.
[14:28] {dino} i have been doing the mens health bodyweight cardio burner 20 minute cd. exhausts me. of course i was never much of a cardio guy aside from walking dog
01[14:28] {Threei}  this is very different
[14:29] {dino} for past 22 years my exercise has been tossing steel around/free weights. just last fall i was benching 290 lbs, then hurt my shoulder in november
01[14:29] {Threei}  follow this protocol to the t, it's really very effective
[14:30] {dino} you did this?
01[14:30] {Threei}  yes, for 8 months already
01[14:30] {Threei}  I quit smoking, gained 30 lbs in a blink of eye
01[14:30] {Threei}  couldn't shake it off whatever I did
01[14:31] {Threei}  started stabilizing it slowly, then sliding down, paunfully slow
01[14:31] {Threei}  then a few drastic measures changed things for real,
01[14:32] {Threei}  one being dropping all the wheat, cereal etc, and replacing them with buckwheat, including baking my own buckwheat bread,
01[14:32] {Threei}  another - this tabata protocol,
[14:32] {dino} i'm low carbing now
01[14:32] {Threei}  plus light weight training and an hour to three a day of walking
01[14:33] {Threei}  shed 30 lbs, platooed,
01[14:33] {Threei}  now consolidating for a new breakdown
01[14:33] {Threei}  weight chart looks like total DBI :)
[14:33] {RonS} gonna short it?
01[14:33] {Threei}  aslready did :)
[14:34] {dino} lol
01[14:34] {Threei}  btw, when you do this thing, it's practically impossible to track time, you get fuzzy
01[14:34] {Threei}  so, I found and downloaded a free app
[14:35] {RonS} no shit, you have no oxygen...
01[14:35] {Threei}  that signals end and start of each 20 sec and 10 sec period
[14:35] {RonS} when i used to run the half mile i would see stars at the end of the races...
01[14:35] {Threei}  calls "round and workout timer"
01[14:35] {Threei}  tablet or phone
01[14:36] {Threei}  it's even worse in this case ron
01[14:36] {Threei}  because you pedal with all you've got
[14:37] {RonS} reminds me of track coaches workout of for the half mile...all out run 220...rest 20 seconds...all out run 220...rest 20 seconds...15 times
01[14:37] {Threei}  not slowing down to control breath, just pushing and pushingm if you can do any faster you do
01[14:37] {Threei}  it's amazing how much it draws out of you in just 8 20-second rounds
[14:37] {RonS} and the bastard put me in charge...couldn't screw the pooch...brutal
01[14:38] {Threei}  hehe
[14:38] {RonS} but first year out was 5th in the league...
01[14:38] {Threei}  well done
[14:38] {RonS} lol...i was a football player...
01[14:43] {Threei}  watching FB for pullback under .20 for entry
01[14:49] {Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .20 break
01[14:49] {Threei}  If holds  .10
01[14:51] {Threei}  1:1
01[14:51] {Threei}  1:2
01[14:53] {Threei}  1:3
[14:59] {dino} gj
01[14:59] {Threei}  :)
[15:12] {RonS} out fl 57.20 from 56.66 +.52
01[15:12] {Threei}  nice
[15:13] {RonS} should have found a better number...6.66...didn't think about it at the time...
[15:17] {RonS} sheesh thought jf left a long time ago
01[15:17] {Threei}  lol
01[15:17] {Threei}  people exit without saying bye and say bye but don't exit
01[15:17] {Threei}  I am telling you, people are the weirdest
[15:18] {RonS} long ago came to the conclusion that anyone can make a great case that the next guy is nuts...
[15:19] {RonS} hey dino...
01[15:20] {Threei}  yes, but I am the only one who would be right
[15:20] {RonS} at some point didn't dino say he trades in his basement?
01[15:21] {Threei}  yes... why?
[15:21] {RonS} wintertime in basement bitching about winter...but summertime...still in basement...wtf?
[15:22] {RonS} nuts i tell ya...
01[15:22] {Threei}  same but without bitching?
01[15:22] {Threei}  looks logical to me
01[15:29] {Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .30 break
01[15:29] {Threei}  If holds  .20
01[15:31] {Threei}  no go
[15:32] {RonS} ah well, the last one made up for it
01[15:32] {Threei}  yeah, but want to finish with a good one... looking still
01[15:33] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .60 break
[15:33] {dino} basement trading yes. mnot bad, its remodelled basement. my office is 10 x 10, carpeted with window.
[15:33] {dino} just outside my office door is 6 seat wet bar, pool table, free weights, heavy bag, and tv area
[15:34] {RonS} very nice...
[15:34] {dino} also, full bathroom in basement, so pretty cool setup
[15:35] {RonS} out my window is the banks of the Little Dry Creek River...
[15:35] {dino} used to trade downtown in my office building, but the three others that traded with me, blew up. so instead of sitting there alone (which i did for two months), i now rent it out
[15:36] {RonS} lol...which in PA you would call a ditch...but in Colorado it's a river that only has water about 30 days a year
[15:36] {dino} vad, i have printed the program and will give it a try
01[15:36] {Threei}  :)
[15:36] {dino} lol ron
01[15:36] {Threei}  1:1
[15:37] {dino} when i first moved home to trade, my wife asks "why not set up your trading office in our bedroom (it's big)?" i replied; "yeah, i want to spend 16 hours of my day locked in the bedroom"
01[15:39] {Threei}  hehe
[15:39] {dino} well guys not a lot of trades, but profittable (71% of goal)
01[15:40] {Threei}  on a plus side here as well
[15:40] {RonS} when we moved here from the relative banks of the Columbia River said to wife "see the South Platte River there?" she: where? me: over there?  she; that? me: yes, that's the largest river in the State east of the mountains  she; you're kidding me, that's not a river...
01[15:40] {Threei}  just waiting to see how this IWM resolves, scalp or more
[15:42] {dino} to funny ron
[15:42] {dino} too
[15:43] {dino} i'm bored, so think at the close i will hit my sisters pub for happy hour.
[15:43] {RonS} the Army Corps of Engineers actually turns the river on and off...true story
[15:44] {dino} lake wallenpaupack (near me) pp&l does the same for power generation, sometimes the ice is two feet above the water level
[15:46] {RonS} named for german/indian halfbreed?
[15:46] {dino} indian
01[15:48] {Threei}  ok closing this thing
01[15:48] {Threei}  thank you, have a good evening
01[15:49] {Threei}  see oui tomorrow
[15:49] {dino} i'm done too, gn all

Mar 04 2015

Nice strong day again, with 1:4s and 1:2s, and couple smallish stops.


Session Time: Wed Mar 04 00:00:00 2015
[09:10] {dino} gm, the cold weather continues. had 8 inches snow sunday, 6 inches last night, and calling for 4 inches tonight. we are over 70 inches this year, and we average 48 inches.
01[09:11] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:16] {RonS} gm...Feb broke snow record here 24 in, got another 3 last night...we average 60 but half of that usually comes mar/apr when the sun comes the next day...now cloudy and 11...
01[09:17] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:18] {dino} first day here above 20s since mid january
[09:18] {RonS} veev hooked a bunch...drilled over a purchase...no touch here
[09:27] {RonS} veev...might try around $26 if later in the day
01[09:29] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -CNDO +30% (entered collaboration agreement with TGTX)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -W +19% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -LXRX +13% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -SWHC +10% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -AEO +9% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -AMBA +8% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -TIVO +6.3% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -TSL +3.3% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -BOBE -20% (earnings; negative broker commentary)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -TNET -17% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -BV -15% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -VEEV -13% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -ANF -6.7% (earnings - comments on CEO search)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -CYTX -4% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -AA -2.7% (premarket downgrade)
01[09:31] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .80 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:32] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:32] {@Threei}  in a blink of eye
01[09:32] {@Threei}  1:2
[09:33] {jfjf64} Mornin
01[09:33] {@Threei}  jf :)
01[09:34] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .85 break
01[09:34] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:38] {jfjf64} Iwm 122 break
01[09:38] {@Threei}  nah
01[09:38] {@Threei}  VXX time still
01[09:39] {@Threei}  1:2
[09:39] {jfjf64} Yes
[09:39] {jfjf64} My bad there
01[09:39] {@Threei}  1:3
[09:39] {jfjf64} Nice
06[09:40] * @Threei slaps jfjf64 around a bit with a large roll of cash
[09:40] {jfjf64} Pls do
[09:41] {jfjf64} Sbux .40 break
[09:43] {jfjf64} Nope
01[09:45] {@Threei}  *(US) FEB FINAL MARKIT SERVICES PMI: 57.1 V 57.0E
01[09:46] {@Threei}  closed VXX at 1:4
01[09:46] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .90 break
01[09:46] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[09:47] {@Threei}  change to .85
01[09:47] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
01[09:47] {@Threei}  bounce time
[09:48] {jfjf64} Did I ever tell you I hate subs coffee
[09:48] {jfjf64} Sbux
01[09:48] {@Threei}  yes, and I violently agreed with you
[09:49] {jfjf64} Star Wars and sbux
[09:49] {jfjf64} New I liked ya vg
[09:50] {dino} added veev calls
01[09:50] {@Threei}  no go
[09:50] {jfjf64} Morni Dino
[09:51] {dino} gm
01[09:52] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MCD  40 break
01[09:52] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
[09:53] {jfjf64} Iwm .80
[09:56] {dino} f%#k, missed true gap fill
01[09:56] {@Threei}  IWM rinse
[09:59] {jfjf64} She got me early she owes me
01[09:59] {@Threei}  you in?
[10:00] {jfjf64} Y
01[10:00] {@Threei}  [EUR/USD] Moves below 1.1100 for a fresh 11 year low
[10:00] {jfjf64} Love mcd here
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) FEB ISM NON-MANUFACTURING COMPOSITE: 56.9 V 56.5E
[10:00] {jfjf64} .25
01[10:01] {@Threei}  [MCD] Confirms McDonald's USA Announces New Antibiotics Policy and Menu Sourcing Initiatives Actions Are Part of Company's Global Commitment to Address Customers' Changing Expectations and Preferences
[10:01] {jfjf64} Yikes
[10:01] {cosmo} they should buy out sbux
[10:02] {jfjf64} Out ism
[10:02] {jfjf64} Iwm
01[10:02] {@Threei}  wtg
[10:02] {jfjf64} In mcd 26
01[10:02] {@Threei}  to wash down crappy burger with crappy coffee?
[10:03] {jfjf64} Tight stop ofcours
[10:04] {cosmo} i hear sbux uses coconut milk now
01[10:05] {@Threei}  which changes nothing about coffee
01[10:05] {@Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .55 break
01[10:05] {@Threei}  If holds  .65
[10:05] {cosmo} i take mine at room temperature in an I.V.
[10:06] {cosmo} home made of course
[10:07] {jfjf64} Out mcd
01[10:07] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:08] {jfjf64} Was watching cce got caught up in shit burger
[10:10] {jfjf64} Fb s .75
[10:11] {jfjf64} No go
01[10:24] {@Threei}  die FCX
[10:25] {jfjf64} Die baby
[10:26] {jfjf64} Today you become teenager
01[10:26] {@Threei}  lol
01[10:26] {@Threei}  1:2
[10:26] {dino} lol
01[10:29] {@Threei}  oil inventories
01[10:30] {@Threei}  *(US) DOE CRUDE: +10.3M V +4.5ME
01[10:30] {@Threei}  oh boy
[10:32] {jfjf64} Cop
[10:32] {jfjf64} Xop
[10:33] {jfjf64} May be help FCC
[10:33] {jfjf64} Fcx
01[10:37] {@Threei}  jf switched into mode "drop by, share a nugget of wisdom, get out"
01[10:38] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:48] {@Threei}  1:4 baby
01[10:48] {@Threei}  I am out
[10:57] {dino} gj
01[10:57] {@Threei}  ty
01[10:58] {@Threei}  (US) Justice Kennedy comments that there is a serious constitutional problem with the legal challenge to Obamacare - press **NOTE: Kennedy votes center-right on the Court and is often a swing voter. The Supreme Court is hearing the case challenging aspects of the healthcare law today and a decision is expected mid-year
[11:00] {RonS} ...if there was a problem they would not have accepted the case
[11:01] {RonS} don't understand what he is saying
01[11:01] {@Threei}  neither do I
[11:05] {RonS} besides, they shouldn't be commenting on a live case, before the ruling
01[11:22] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .20 break
01[11:23] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:26] {@Threei}  Pessimist sleeps with a knife under the pillow. Optimist does, too - in case someone comes to visit with a cake
[11:27] {dino} i like the book one better
01[11:29] {@Threei}  book one?
[11:31] {dino} a pessimist sells books, the optimist makes money
01[11:31] {@Threei}  :)
[11:34] {dino} 07 fast green
01[11:46] {@Threei}  The February ADP report was pretty strong, with another reading over 200K, just shy of expectations, and a big revision of the January reading to 250K from 213K prior. The annual benchmark revisions significantly boosted the numbers from all of 2014. The consensus estimate for Friday's February non-farm payrolls is around 240K, and the average gap between the ADP and BLS readings has been around 37K, suggesting the jobs report will remain in line with recent readings.
[11:48] {dino} rhi drop
[11:49] {dino} sm l .28
[11:50] {RonS} which dollar?
01[11:51] {@Threei}  hehe
[11:51] {dino} 61
[11:52] {dino} stop .00 brk
01[11:58] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .80 break
01[11:58] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
[12:05] {dino} ocul spike
[12:05] {dino} out rhi flat, wont move
[12:11] {RonS} hearing that kennedy questioning came during the trial...all the hospital stocks rallied on it
[12:12] {RonS} ...as if he is the only person there...
01[12:32] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .0 breeak
01[12:32] {@Threei}  .10
01[12:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
[12:37] {RonS} wtf...they already observe all the Jewish and ChrisitanNew York City will close schools to observe 2 Muslim holidays http://bloom.bg/1aLwBDw   holidays...pretty soon...no school:
[12:38] {RonS} lol screwed that up
01[12:38] {@Threei}  add chinese new year, anfd half of scool year is gone
[12:54] {dino} ll drop
[12:55] {RonS} CNBC app has just reported top US senator has requested investigation in Lumber Liquidators"
[12:57] {RonS} tweet says: if it works on dead bodies, why not on flooring...
[12:59] {dino} lol
01[12:59] {@Threei}  lol
[13:08] {dino} ll again
[13:18] {RonS} Russia accuses U.S. of plot to oust Putin http://bloom.bg/1CwMyJn
01[13:19] {@Threei}  and Europe - of putting their library on fire
01[13:19] {@Threei}  and Ukraine - of killing Nemtsov, with help of "anglo-sax"
01[13:20] {@Threei}  they are in business of accusing
01[13:42] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VCC  .65 break
01[13:42] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[13:42] {@Threei}  VXX
01[13:56] {@Threei}  1:2
01[13:57] {@Threei}  forgot to post 1:1
[13:57] {RonS} good one
01[13:57] {@Threei}  but I believe you can forgive me for that
01[13:57] {@Threei}  or not
01[13:57] {@Threei}  if not, I'll go pout some ashes on my head
01[13:57] {@Threei}  pour
[14:01] {dino} dwti drop
[14:02] {RonS} crude busted through 51 now 51.52
[14:05] {dino} dwti vsm l .50
[14:08] {dino} no go, stop -.33
[14:08] {dino} wtf rinsed
[14:21] {dino} nsr drop
[14:25] {RonS} FCC Bureau has ruled against Neustar $NSR with the Co. set to lose a phone number management contract
[14:26] {dino} ty
[14:26] {dino} sm l .82
[14:30] {dino} out nsr 22.05, +1.22
01[14:30] {@Threei}  wiw
01[14:30] {@Threei}  i=o
[14:30] {dino} :)
01[14:30] {@Threei}  not bad reward for 4 min work
[14:30] {dino} was laying out, glad i was
01[14:30] {@Threei}  yeah
[14:31] {RonS} 42% float short...caught some of them covering... gj
[14:31] {dino} ty, re-load?
01[14:35] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .45 break
01[14:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .35
01[14:42] {@Threei}  jf is in 2 min connection mode
[14:43] {dino} that sucks
[14:47] {jfjf64} Hey hey
01[14:47] {@Threei}  lol
[14:48] {jfjf64} How was action earlier
01[14:48] {@Threei}  not bad
01[14:48] {@Threei}  got 1:2 on VXX
01[14:48] {@Threei}  small stop
[14:48] {jfjf64} Nice
01[14:49] {@Threei}  scalp on FB
01[14:49] {@Threei}  decent day
01[14:50] {@Threei}  1:1  IWM
[14:51] {jfjf64} Got that
01[14:55] {@Threei}  Senate fails to get the 67 votes needed to override Obama's veto of Keystone pipeline bill
01[14:56] {@Threei}  - vote: 62 to 37
01[14:56] {@Threei}  wow FB
01[14:57] {@Threei}  watching for reversal setup
01[14:57] {@Threei}  .s fb .80 break
01[14:57] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
01[14:58] {@Threei}  meh
[14:58] {jfjf64} I'm watching
[14:59] {jfjf64} Twtr too
[15:00] {jfjf64} Twtr.70
[15:02] {jfjf64} Fb.90
01[15:03] {@Threei}  yes
01[15:03] {@Threei}  upward tail
01[15:04] {@Threei}  and SPY helps
[15:04] {jfjf64} 1/1both
01[15:05] {@Threei}  1:1
[15:05] {jfjf64} 13 ma holds both up
[15:05] {jfjf64} Twtr breaks it
[15:20] {jfjf64} Vxx here ??
[15:21] {jfjf64} .30
01[15:21] {@Threei}  desirably on pullback under .30
01[15:21] {@Threei}  if holds .25
[15:22] {jfjf64} K
01[15:23] {@Threei}  Report: House committee to subpoena emails from Clinton's personal account, sources say
01[15:24] {@Threei}  VXX on recross
[15:24] {jfjf64}  Bill or hillory
01[15:24] {@Threei}  Hillary
01[15:24] {@Threei}  her friendship with Monika is about to come out...
[15:25] {jfjf64} Ugh
[15:27] {jfjf64} He we go
[15:28] {jfjf64} Kiss of death
[15:28] {jfjf64} I like better now
01[15:29] {@Threei}  from FOMC 2009 transcripts just published:
[15:29] {RonS} she used her personal email exclusively when she ran State...totally against the law
01[15:29] {@Threei}  ROSENGREN: ...I agree with Presidents Evans & Yeltsin—Yellen—[Laughter]
01[15:29] {@Threei}  FISHER. I’ve gone drinking with Janet. She’s no Yeltsin. [Laughter]
[15:29] {RonS} lol
01[15:30] {@Threei}  ugh VXX
[15:30] {RonS} ..."but her beard is heavier than Boris's"
01[15:30] {@Threei}  hehe
[15:33] {jfjf64} .20 break vxx
01[15:35] {@Threei}  not sure
[15:36] {jfjf64} I ook it
[15:37] {jfjf64} 13 ma .23 holdin down
[15:38] {jfjf64} I'm a big 13 ma guy now
[15:38] {jfjf64} Lol
01[15:38] {@Threei}  if you were big, it would be 93 MA
[15:38] {RonS} will stick with jack ma here...
01[15:38] {@Threei}  13 is not big
[15:39] {jfjf64} What is jack ma
[15:40] {dino} lol
[15:40] {jfjf64} Bam
[15:40] {RonS} lol
[15:42] {RonS} $shak spike
[15:51] {dino} calling it a day, gn all
01[15:51] {@Threei}  me too
01[15:51] {@Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
01[15:51] {@Threei}  see you tomorroe
01[15:51] {@Threei}  w
[15:52] {jfjf64} Good night all

Mar 03 2015

Boring and just very slightly positive day, with not much happening.


Session Time: Tue Mar 03 00:00:00 2015
01[09:01] {@Threei}  papillon, see private message
[09:07] {dino} gm
01[09:07] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:07] {RonS} gm...LL look at the bids
01[09:09] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:15] {RonS} kinda feels weird but miss nemo here...
01[09:15] {@Threei}  LOL: Spain govt advisor Nadel: Greece will need a 3rd bailout program
[09:24] {dino} same ron
[09:25] {dino} guy had some god insight
[09:25] {dino} good too
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  ,50 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[09:32] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:33] {@Threei}  valid again
01[09:33] {@Threei}  same setup
01[09:34] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .05 break
01[09:34] {@Threei}  If holds  .95
[09:37] {RonS} dks limp
01[09:41] {@Threei}  no go
01[09:41] {@Threei}  1 cent to 1:1
01[09:43] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:43] {@Threei}  -AMCO +36% (business update)
01[09:43] {@Threei}  -MDR +29% (earnings)
01[09:43] {@Threei}  -FNJN +17% (positive Markman ruling in patent trial)
01[09:43] {@Threei}  -TSEM +9% (begins mass production of Advanced IR Sensor for Intel in depth sensing tech)
01[09:43] {@Threei}  -XON +7.5% (earnings)
01[09:43] {@Threei}  -LL +5% (positive broker commentary & price attractiveness considering dramatic fall in value yesterday)
01[09:43] {@Threei}  -NAV +4% (earnings)
01[09:43] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:43] {@Threei}  -PRIM -18% (earnings)
01[09:43] {@Threei}  -CZR -9.3% (earnings)
01[09:43] {@Threei}  -MNKD -9.3% (negative broker commentary)
01[09:43] {@Threei}  -TEDU -9.5% (earnings)
01[09:43] {@Threei}  -PLUG -8% (files to delay 10-K)
01[09:43] {@Threei}  -SNN -3.8% (acquired Colombian distributor; SYK buyback)
01[09:43] {@Threei}  -DAL -2.5% (traffic)
01[09:45] {@Threei} Short Setup: DAL  .30 break
01[09:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
[09:45] {RonS} insy pulp
01[09:46] {@Threei}  change to .50 break
01[09:46] {@Threei}  too fast
01[09:46] {@Threei}  1:2... grr
01[09:49] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .10 break
01[09:49] {@Threei}  If holds  79
01[09:49] {@Threei}  wtf
01[09:52] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .20 break
01[09:52] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[09:54] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:54] {@Threei}  annoying morning
01[09:56] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .10 break
01[09:56] {@Threei}  If holds  45
01[09:56] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:58] {@Threei}  change to .90 break
01[09:58] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
[10:01] {RonS} sm l pcrx 87.60
01[10:02] {@Threei}  *(US) MAR IBD/TIPP ECONOMIC OPTIMISM: 49.1 V 47.5E
[10:04] {dino} insy sm l .57
01[10:05] {@Threei}  not liking this morning, nothing like yesterday
[10:06] {dino} ron, nice entry pcrx
[10:11] {RonS} out pcrx 89.45 +1.85
01[10:11] {@Threei}  wtg
[10:11] {RonS} ty
01[10:13] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .30 break
01[10:14] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
[10:14] {dino} gj
01[10:15] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:15] {@Threei}  DKTK setup... waited for a rinse after initial .40 break
[10:16] {dino} stop insy, not my week so far
01[10:16] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:17] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:18] {@Threei}  finally something decent
01[10:18] {@Threei}  1:4
01[10:18] {@Threei}  now we need jf to wake up and curse his luck
01[10:20] {@Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .10 break
01[10:20] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
[10:24] {dino} last try smr l insy .23
01[10:25] {@Threei}  frikin DAL got away
01[10:38] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:43] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:43] {@Threei}  day gets brighter
[10:45] {dino} gj
01[10:45] {@Threei}  ty
01[11:10] {@Threei} Short Setup: DAL  .60 break
01[11:10] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[11:14] {@Threei}  Netanyahu is trying to make good with Obama
[11:17] {RonS} COT not bunk
01[11:18] {@Threei}  no go
01[11:18] {@Threei}  no ron... this wasn't good
01[11:18] {@Threei}  I appreciate the intent but...
01[11:26] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .65 break
01[11:26] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[11:29] {@Threei}  change to .60 break
01[11:30] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[11:51] {dino} didn't realize vxx was in 26s
01[11:52] {@Threei}  amazing, isn't it
01[11:54] {@Threei}  The Nasdaq has backed away from 5000 today and the S&P500 has come off all-time highs. US equities have followed European stocks lower in the absence of any major catalysts.
01[11:54] {@Threei}  The US Dollar index rose above 95.50 this morning to its highest level in 11 years. EUR/USD crept closer to the YTD lows
01[12:18] {@Threei}  She: "Oh my God! You really ONLY hear what you want to hear!"
01[12:18] {@Threei}  Me: "Thanks! I've been working out!"
01[12:21] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .85 break
01[12:21] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
01[12:25] {@Threei}  1:1
[12:37] {dino} adding vxx calls
01[12:46] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .55 break
01[12:46] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[12:50] {@Threei}  1:1
01[12:59] {@Threei}  1:2
01[13:17] {@Threei}  UAL Seeing call activity5000 Mar 90 calls trade at the ask
01[14:27] {@Threei}  (RU) EU's Tusk: Prepared to implement further sanctions against Russia if Minsk agreement is violated
01[14:27] {@Threei}  IF?
01[14:27] {@Threei}  it was violated within hours after signing
[14:32] {dino} out insy .52, +1.29
01[14:34] {@Threei}  wtg
[14:35] {dino} ty
01[14:36] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .80 break
01[14:45] {@Threei}  nah
01[14:50] {@Threei}  rinse
01[14:50] {@Threei}  gotta get back to DKTK
[14:51] {dino} what is dktk?
01[14:53] {@Threei}  don't kid the kidder
[14:53] {dino} true working on that 16.70 area gap
01[14:53] {@Threei}  let break go, wait for a rinse, buy after stops are hit
[14:53] {dino} ahh
01[14:59] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .45 break
01[14:59] {@Threei}  If holds  .35
[15:34] {dino} oxlc drop
[15:40] {dino} sm l .85
01[15:41] {@Threei}  bpring day
01[15:42] {@Threei}  boring
01[15:44] {@Threei}  about breakeven, slightly positive
01[15:44] {@Threei}  no desire for any new postions
01[15:44] {@Threei}  than you, havbe a good evening
01[15:44] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:48] {dino} out oxlc .18, +.33
01[15:50] {@Threei}  nice finish
[15:53] {dino} ty
[15:53] {dino} gn

March April 2015 Outlook: Award Season

TradeTheNews.com March April 2015 Outlook: Award Season
Tue, 03 Mar 2015 14:25 PM EST

In the spirit of Hollywood's self-congratulatory award season, let's start with a pat on our own back for what we got right in our January-February outlook. The ECB did indeed step up the timetable for its Quantitative Easing program, announcing the go ahead in January. The risk-on appetite generated by the new plate of QE, however, was initially tempered by the demands of the newly elected leftist government in Greece. As predicted, after a brief flirtation with brinkmanship, the Syriza Party leadership sobered up to the realities of governing and accepted a deal to keep Greece in the euro zone. In Eastern Europe, President Putin played at peace maker again, as we suspected he might, but the result of reaffirming the Minsk accord is as yet inconclusive. Also as expected, China took another swing at stimulus, which could be just the beginning as the nation reshapes its economy toward a more sustainable long term growth model. And finally, the strengthened dollar crimped Q4 results for a number of US multinationals, and oil prices have found a near term bottom, which has helped ease forex volatility in the last few weeks.

Over the next two month period the path of four crucial economic issues will become clearer. First down the red carpet, the oil market will tip its hand, either recovering some ground in a sign of growth returning or hitting fresh lows if new demand does not materialize amid continued high output. The latter seems more likely at this point as Saudi King Abdullah finally succumbed to old age, but his new oil policy lives on - Saudi is unwilling to act as the swing producer anymore, weighing heavily on oil prices and dragging down global inflation with it. Second is that issue of weak inflation, which most policy experts believe will avoid morphing into a deflationary spiral once low oil prices start to exert a stimulative effect. The third issue is how impactful the latest round of global stimulus will be as Europe and Asia add more logs to the fire, and to what extent smaller central banks will be forced to play a supporting role. Lastly, by April we should have more clarity on when the Fed plans to finally start dismantling its extraordinary stimulus machine.

Dark Horse Upsets

Just like award ceremonies, not every outcome in the market is predictable. There have been some genuine surprises in the last few months that could set up a counterproductive current in 2015. The monumental easing programs of the world's biggest central banks have recently pushed smaller national banks to new policy extremes. The shocking move by the Swiss National Bank to abandon its tightly defended floor in the franc against the euro seemed to open the floodgates for other smaller central banks enlist in the currency war. After the SNB move, central bankers from Singapore to Australia to Israel surprised markets by cutting already low rates, and some, like Sweden, joined the Swiss in experimenting with negative rates. As pressure builds on policy makers to address declining inflation, sliding commodity prices, and softening growth expectations such moves may become more commonplace, if not the norm. And now that the Swiss, who are more dependent on the banking sector than anyone, have resorted to negative rates, more central banks may find this course necessary to prompt commercial banks to channel their money into investments that will stimulate the economy. The downside is that if such aggressive and unprecedented monetary policy moves do not yield demonstrable results, it could erode trust in the global central bank monetary regime that won some praise for averting a Great Depression in 2008.

The Early Favorites

For market prognosticators, the show gets off to a quick start in early March. The first week of the month will be highlighted by an ECB policy meeting detailing the launch of its quantitative easing program. Meanwhile in China, leaders will gather to do the accounting of last year's reform efforts and slowing growth and set new targets, and in the US banks will see their statutory stress test results aired in public.

China's Q4 GDP report confirmed that the PRC's economic growth has fallen to its slowest pace in 24 years, and missed the official annual target (7.5% for 2014) for the first time since 1998. The leadership is now expected to further reduce its growth goal to around 7% for this year, an announcement that will come at the spring party plenum in early March. There are even some predictions that amidst the very public anti-corruption and reform campaign that has been waged over the last year, Beijing may take this moment to deemphasize the numerical GDP target as it strives to improve the qualitative shape of its growth. This means aiming to reduce its dependence on credit-fueled investment and government spending, and putting more emphasis on spurring domestic consumer consumption. Indeed some progress on this front shone through in the latest GDP data which indicated that consumption accounted 51.2% of 2014 growth, a full three percentage point higher than the prior year.

China's policy makers are still worried about slower growth, however, as evidenced by the PBoC cutting rates twice in the last three months, while the government has promised to continue its official "proactive" fiscal policy stance which has been in place since the inception of the 2008 financial crisis. The latest 25 basis point cut went into effect on March 1 and some analysts expect more rate cuts in the months ahead, though that would belie the central bank's assertions that it is only "fine tuning" its policy. On the fiscal side, Premier Li has made it known that the government will step up the magnitude of its proactive policy, including plans to give tax breaks to small businesses. All told, these drops of new stimulus add up to substantive support for the economy and would suggest that Chinese policy makers are ready and willing to do more if the need is there.

The PBoC's European counterpart has not been shy about providing more accommodation. Final details of the new ECB quantitative easing program will be discussed at the central bank's March 5 policy meeting. In January, the ECB announced an expanded asset purchase program of €60 billion per month, about what was expected including the roll up of the existing ABS and covered bond programs. Surprisingly, instead of setting a specific overall size or duration for the program, the ECB left the program open ended, stating it will continue until the central bank observes a sustained adjustment in path of inflation.

Stimulus junkies took delight in this indefinite end point which some analysts already see stretching well past the September 2016 cut-off date that had been expected. However, the latest press coverage indicates that this estimated end date could be realistic after all. According to reports, thanks to the positive reaction to the QE announcement, the ECB's latest quarterly macroeconomic outlook could forecast inflation returning to the 'just under 2%' target in 2017, a signal that it may not be necessary to extend the sovereign bond buying program beyond the fall of 2016 after all. If this is indeed to baseline forecast, it will still be tempered by the short term inflation outlook, which ECB President Draghi has warned will involve a period of negative inflation driven by the collapse of oil prices.

The same day as the ECB press conference, the too big to fail banks subject to the Fed's stress test will tear open the envelops to find out if they are all winners. Six days after that (March 11) the related outcomes of the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) will be made public. Last year 29 of 30 banks passed the stress tests, with only Zions bank falling short of minimum capital levels required, but another four banks (Citigroup, HSBC North America, RBS Citizens, and Santander Holdings) joined Zions in having their CCAR requests denied by the Fed. The CCAR denial was particularly embarrassing for Citigroup, whose leaders will undoubted do everything they can this year to ensure they can raise their measly one cent dividend. Overall, the banks should disclose modest requests to increase their dividends in the CCAR announcements, a sign of normalization in the finance market and perhaps a hint that lending institutions believe higher interest rates are finally be on the way after six years of extraordinary low rates that have limited the profitability of traditional commercial banking.

Acceptance Speech

Assuming no surprise bank stress test failures, the biggest problem for Fed policy this year may be the global economy, which the Fed took pains to point out in its January policy statement by adding a phrase about monitoring international developments. The proper employment conditions for pulling back on accommodation have been in place for some time, so when solid evidence of movement toward the second mandate of steady and stable inflation materializes, the Fed would be justified in raising rates. The quandary is that this would put the Fed way out in front of other global central banks, moving US monetary policy toward normalization even while central banks in Europe and Asia are going to new and unprecedented extremes of accommodation.

Fed speakers have given every indication that if the US economy gets some healthier inflation in the months ahead, the Fed is ready to pull the trigger on rate lift off. However, Chair Yellen and her crew have made it clear that this cycle of rate tighten will not be on autopilot as it has so often been in the past. Prior cycles of tightening policy have tended to involve steady 25 basis point hikes at six week intervals, meeting after meeting. But taking the current global environment into account - with major trading partners still struggling with growth and teetering on deflation, and the dollar undeniably strong - the Fed has said rate hikes will likely come slower and the endgame will be at a lower level, perhaps a 3.75% Fed funds rate in the longer term.

Each economic data point this spring will be scrutinized for whether it will bring rate lift off sooner, or later. The earliest possible date for the tightening cycle to start is now seen as the mid-June Fed meeting. Speculation about such an early lift off will be dashed at the March 19 meeting if the Fed retains its "patient" stance, which has been defined as no action for at least the next two meetings. If the data cooperates, that might make the Fed's meeting at the end of April the right moment to signal the policy shift by dropping the patient language, opening the path for the first rate hike in September, though still retaining the flexibility to wait another meeting or two if global development continue to weigh on the committee's outlook.

And the Nominees Are

One less thing Chair Yellen will have contend with this year is the coterie of FOMC dissenters who spoke out in 2014. The dovish dissenter, Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota, has rotated out of the voting membership for the next two years. Meanwhile the two leading hawks of 2014, Dallas Fed President Fisher and Philadelphia Fed President Plosser will both step down in March. Heading into their retirement, Fisher and Plosser have both spent a significant time giving TV interviews, trying to leave a lasting impression, though Fisher acknowledged recently that he had lost the argument for a Q1 rate lift off.

Without these three dissenting voices, policy setting should be more united in 2015, as two of the new voters include Atlanta Fed President Lockhart, a moderate who will likely stick with the consensus, and San Francisco Fed President Williams who agrees that rate lift off will probably happen in the second half of the year. The leading hawk among the voters will now be Richmond Fed President Lacker, who has been a skeptic of easy-money policies, though not as stridently as Fisher and Plosser. The Dallas and Philly Fed boards have yet nominate new Presidents, but reports have indicated that Dallas is looking for a candidate that shares the policy views of Fisher while Philadelphia wants someone with a strong academic background, as Plosser had. In any case, new members tend to keep a low profile for the first year of their tenure and the two will not be voters until 2017 [*March 2 update: Philly Fed nominates Patrick Harker, current president of the University of Delaware].

It's All Political

While the Fed may see more unity this year, divisive political issues continue to wrack Europe. A Greek meltdown was averted again, at least for a few more months, while the next slow moving political crisis may emerge from the UK.

As expected, for all of its anti-bailout electioneering talk, the new left-wing Syriza government in Athens turned out to be more pragmatic once in power. Prime Minister Tsipras and his rock-star Finance Minister Varoufakis kept the euro zone on edge with their rhetoric and a long list of demands, but ultimately lost their swagger and settled for a few cosmetic changes to gain a 4-month extension of the rescue package. The key concession Athens got was an agreement to halt austerity measures for the rest of 2015 due to "economic circumstances." Relaxing the austerity measures that helped push unemployment up to 25% and ultimately brought Syriza to power this year, should put Greece on the road to a more durable solution in the months ahead. For now, the reaction on the Greek street must be watched closely, as the technical oversight of the hated 'Troika' was shed in name only (one of the concessions Tsipras got was to refer to the ECB, European Commission, and the IMF as "the institutions" rather than the "troika" as they continue to carry out their mission directing the bailout program). If easing austerity isn't felt fast enough, public sentiment could put pressure on Syriza to take a harder line in the next round of negotiations in the months ahead.

The next potentially jarring political event on the horizon for Europe is the UK election in May. The event has not gotten much attention outside of Britain, as the Greek drama and the ECB's QE decision stole the limelight. Prime Minister Cameron has pledged that if his party wins an outright majority in this year's election, allowing them to shed the Liberal Democrats as a coalition partner, then he will undertake a yes-no referendum on the UK's membership in the EU in 2017. After the paroxysms caused by Greece's feints toward the euro zone, the prospect of the UK spending the next two years discussing a break with the EU could deal a grave blow to the notion of greater European unity.

I'd Like to Thank...Oil

The price of oil seems to be at the heart of any assessment of the current economy. The precipitous drop in crude prices is indicative of weak global economic growth, while simultaneously exerting even more downward pressure on already low inflation resulting from that slow growth. A month ago WTI crude fell to below $45/barrel and then surged a quick ten dollars and now lies near the middle of that range. The volatility being seen of late has divided oil traders into two camps, with some declaring definite bottoming action here, while others expect another leg lower into the $30's. Who will ultimately be correct depends on a number of factors.

Arguing for more stable oil prices is the fact that E&P firms have already slashed capital expenditures for this year as they batten down the hatches. North American producers are taking wells offline at a rapid clip, as indicated by the weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count. Historically the rig count has mirrored the through-the-cycle price of oil, which was more than halved. At the current pace the rig count could reach a 50% drop from its September peak before the end of April. That would bring the US rig count to under 1,000 in operation, which could mark a turning point for the global energy market as the shale producers begin to report lower production from their leaner operations.

The rig count can be a deceptive indicator, however, as the camp predicting lower prices would note that oil firms are "high grading" their production, shutting down rigs in their least productive locations but maintaining all of their higher production wells. Until some of these more productive wells are taken out of service too, the glut of oil in storage will persist. This could be further exacerbated by a tricky negotiation with refinery workers across the US that has already led to some strike actions. A broader walk out at refineries could lead to some curtailment of those operations and put even more downward pressure on the price of the raw commodity. Furthermore, some analysts have suggested that existing physical crude oil storage could soon reach maximum capacity, backing up the oil supply at the wellhead.

Another factor to consider when reviewing the energy market is the potential for defaults on debt related to drilling operations. Goldman Sachs chief commodities analyst Currie recently predicted oil would dip to around $40/barrel for the next six months, and that staying at that level for a sustained period could unleash "real default probabilities."

The periodic rumors about OPEC taking action were refueled lately when the Nigerian oil minister suggested that she may ask for an emergency meeting in the next few weeks if the price of oil continues to slide. Convening a meeting is based on a murky procedure for reaching a consensus, and it is considered against diplomatic procedure for a member state to publically call for a special meeting that might be rejected by other members. Such extraordinary gatherings are rare, the last being December 2010 to discuss quota compliance, and Saudi Arabia has downplayed the idea of meeting outside of the normal bi-annual schedule (the next scheduled meeting is June 5).

For its part, the Saudi government has indicated that it thinks Brent oil could settle in at around $60/barrel, about where it has been hovering for the last month. Oil minister Naimi has said he will stick to his guns no matter how low the price falls, though this resolve may be tested if Saudi Aramco's margins erode much further.

Trouble in the Middle East forever remains a source of potential upset in the energy market. The Pentagon announced that Iraqi forces will launch a spring offensive against ISIS in Mosul, pitting over 20 thousand Iraqi soldiers with US advisors and air support against some two thousand dug in militants. The odds seem to be well in favor of the Iraqis liberating Mosul, but if the army falters again as it did last year, it may doom the country to the kind of fractioning experienced by Libya, and potentially put its substantial oil supply at risk.

The Iran nuclear talks will also come to a head in March. The US appears to be unwilling to grant yet another extension, so a solid outline for an agreement must be achieved in the next few weeks or negotiations will collapse, a probability that President Obama handicapped at over 50/50 as of January. If nuclear talks fail, the full sanction regime will be reapplied, not to mention that Tehran hardliners will likely assert themselves and hamstring the pragmatic President Rohani.

Best Supporting Actors

The swoon in oil prices has weighed on already too low inflation, and coupled with the jitters about Greece caused some real volatility in early 2015. Remarkably, equity markets have shaken off these concerns and many major indices are marking record highs, and may get pushed even higher when the expected tailwind from lower energy costs start to be felt. That could translate into healthier global growth and inflation figures in the spring.

Central banks are still handing out stimulus like statutes on Oscar night - there are more categories than you would care to imagine and the program always seems to run too long. The ECB has added QE to its array of ABS, covered bond, and TLTRO programs, and China seems ready to do more around the margins. The operational minutiae of European QE should put to rest questions about the program being too big for the amount of qualifying instruments, though it may stir the pot on Greece one more time as Athens will likely be put on probationary status during its four month renegotiation period.

Over the course of the next couple months, the Fed will have enough data to narrow the window on when rates should lift off the zero bound, most likely settling on autumn for the start of a gradual rate tightening cycle, though it hasn't lost its "patience" yet. With its eyes on the prize of policy normalization, that stance could shift pretty quickly if the economy starts putting up strong, consistent numbers, especially if it includes wage inflation and renewed vigor in the still listless housing market. Conversely, if low inflation remains a stubborn problem and global markets experience more turbulence it could deny the Fed its rate lift off, and leave them saying "maybe next year."



CALENDAR OF EVENTS
MARCH
1: China HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI
2: Various EU Manufacturing PMIs; Euro Zone Flash CPI Estimate; Euro Zone Unemployment; US Personal Spending; US ISM Manufacturing
3: German Retail Sales
4: Euro Zone Retail Sales; US ISM Non-Manufacturing
5: German Factory Orders; BOE policy decision; ECB policy decision and press conference; US Factory Orders; US bank stress test results
6: UK Construction PMI; US Payrolls & Unemployment; US Trade Balance

8: Japan Final Q4 GDP
9: China CPI & PPI; China Trade Balance (tentative)
10: US JOLTS Job Openings
11: China New Loans; UK Manufacturing Production; US banks CCAR results
12: China Industrial Production; US Retail Sales
13: US PPI; US Prelim University of Michigan Confidence

16: US Industrial Production; BOJ policy statement
17: German ZEW Economic Sentiment; Euro Zone Final CPI; US Housing Starts & Permits; Japan Trade Balance
18: BOE minutes; UK Annual Budget Release; FOMC Policy Statement & Press Conference
19: US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing; China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
20: Various EU Flash Manufacturing PMI readings

23: US Existing Home Sales
24: German Ifo Business Climate; US CPI; US Consumer Confidence; US New Home Sales
25: US Durable Goods Orders; Japan Industrial Production; japan Retail Sales
26: UK Retail Sales; Tokyo CPI
27: US Final Q4 GDP

30: German preliminary CPI; US Personal Spending
31: UK Final Q4 GDP; Euro Zone Flash CPI Estimate; Euro Zone Unemployment; US Chicago PMI; Japan Tankan Manufacturing Index; China Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI; China HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI
APRIL
1: Various EU Manufacturing PMIs; US ISM Manufacturing
2: US Trade Balance; US Factory Orders
3: US Payrolls & Unemployment

6:
7: BOJ policy statement; China Trade Balance
8: German Factory Orders; Euro Zone Retail Sales, FOMC minutes
9: China New Loans; BOE policy decision; China CPI & PPI
10: US University of Michigan Confidence

12: BOJ minutes
13:
14: US Retail Sales; US PPI
15: ECB policy decision and press conference; US Industrial Production; China Q1 GDP
16: US Housing Starts & Building Permits; US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
17: Euro Zone Final Q4 GDP; US CPI

19: China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
20: Euro Zone Flash Manufacturing PMI; US Flash Manufacturing PMI
21: German ZEW Economic Sentiment; Japan Trade Balance
22: BOE Minutes; US Existing Home Sales
23: German Ifo Business Climate; US New Home Sales
24: US Durable Goods Orders

27: Japan Household Spending
28: UK Preliminary Q1 GDP; US Consumer Confidence; Tokyo CPI; Japan Industrial Production; Japan Retail Sales
29: Euro Zone Preliminary CPI; US Q1 Advance GDP (1st reading); FOMC policy statement; BOJ policy statement
30: Euro Zone Flash CPI Estimate; Euro Zone Unemployment; US Personal Spending; US Chicago PMI; China Manufacturing PMI; China HSBC Manufacturing PMI
MAY
1: US ISM Manufacturing PMI

Mar 02 2015

Fastest and easiest 1:5 ever 

Day of fireworks, continuing as strongly as started, One of the best trading sessions this year, with win after win after win.



Session Time: Mon Mar 02 00:00:00 2015
[09:09] {dino} gm, its official, 3rd cldest february on record here, tied for 4th place as one of the coldest months on record. average temp this feb were 17.5 degrees . only two clder, 1901 & 1934. 2015 Averaged 11.3 degrees below the average feb temp. i guess what i'm trying to say, its f'ng cold up here
01[09:09] {@Threei}  morning dino
01[09:09] {@Threei}  yeah... and we are having record warm Feb... or secind warmest, don't remember
[09:10] {dino} trade you
01[09:11] {@Threei}  ummm
01[09:11] {@Threei}  I need to think about it
[09:13] {RonS} gm
01[09:14] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:22] {cosmo} Gee, maybe if it wasn't for global warming, those 1901 and 1934 lows would be have been exceded by now...
[09:23] {RonS} NOAA: 2,185 cold records broken or tied in last 7 days...
01[09:23] {@Threei}  and dino wouldn't be even online, since interenet would have froze?
[09:25] {dino} wow ll
[09:25] {cosmo} 11?
[09:26] {RonS} saw 60 minutes...someone is going to jail... LL
[09:27] {cosmo} oh
01[09:27] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -MVNR +20% (being acquired by Mitel in cash & stock deal worth $560M)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -CYCC +20% (no news seen)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -NXP +15% (merger with FSL)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -FSL +10% (merger agreement with NXP)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -SSYS +3.6% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -KITE +3% (expanded R&D collaboration with the National Cancer Institute)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -KFX +3% (acquired Aia Holding BV for $19.5M cash)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -ENDP +2.2% (selling American Medical Systems Urology portfolio for up to $1.68B)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -LL -25% (momentum from negative 60 Minutes report alleging that laminate flooring made in China doesn't meet CA safety codes)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -PCRX -14% (received complete response letter from FDA for sNDA seeking approval for EXPAREL)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -LPI -7% (offering 50M shares through Credit Suisse)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -EGO -6.5% (update on Greece)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -ISIS -3.7% (earned $15M milestone payment from GSK for advancing ISIS-TTR Rx & also received negative broker commentary)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -GPRO -3.5% (Chinese competition)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -WTW -3% (negative broker commentary)
[09:27] {RonS} 13-20X formaldyhide standard in laminated flooring...
01[09:31] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .30 break
01[09:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .36
01[09:32] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:5
01[09:33] {@Threei}  out
01[09:33] {@Threei}  what a beautiful rug pull
[09:40] {dino} pcrx blood
[09:41] {dino} gj
01[09:41] {@Threei}  ty
01[09:43] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .42 break
01[09:43] {@Threei}  If holds  .36
01[09:45] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:46] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .75 break
01[09:46] {@Threei}  If holds  .65
01[09:48] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:50] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .40 break
01[09:50] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:51] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:53] {jfjf64} Gmail all
01[09:53] {@Threei}  hey jf
[09:53] {jfjf64} Gm all
[09:54] {jfjf64} Lol
01[09:54] {@Threei}  missed 1:5
[09:54] {jfjf64} Oh shit
[09:54] {jfjf64} ?
01[09:54] {@Threei}  http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2015/03/mar-02-2015.html
01[09:56] {@Threei}  and CAT is at 1:1
01[09:56] {@Threei}  that'll teach you how to sleep in
01[09:57] {@Threei}  wait... you do that well without teaching
[09:57] {jfjf64} Had to shovel lots snow here
[09:57] {jfjf64} But that's on me should of started earlier
01[09:58] {@Threei}  reminds me my secretary back in old country...
01[09:58] {@Threei}  girl comes to work 30 min kate, asked why she says " left home too late,"
[09:58] {jfjf64} Lol
01[09:59] {@Threei}  asked why she didn't leave earlier, she said: ut was too late to leave earlier
01[09:59] {@Threei}  laughed so hard, that decided to let it go
01[10:00] {@Threei}  10:00 *(US) FEB ISM MANUFACTURING: 52.9 V 53.0E; ISM PRICES PAID: 35.0 V 37.0E
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) JAN CONSTRUCTION SPENDING M/M: -1.1% V 0.3%E
[10:00] {jfjf64} Like vxx here bounce
01[10:01] {@Threei}  1:2  CAT
[10:01] {jfjf64} .20
01[10:01] {@Threei}  not sure
[10:01] {dino} pcrx smr l .48
[10:08] {jfjf64} Mcd 101 s
01[10:08] {@Threei}  yup
01[10:09] {@Threei}  if holds .10
01[10:09] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:10] {jfjf64} We get to .74 no prob
[10:13] {jfjf64} Close to 1/2
01[10:19] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:28] {@Threei}  with this kind of morning we can go home already, lol
[10:28] {jfjf64} Shamed us out going down to .35
01[10:28] {@Threei}  1:5 and two 1:2ers
[10:28] {jfjf64} Shacked
[10:29] {jfjf64} Great mornin
[10:29] {dino} jf, 8" snow here last night
[10:30] {jfjf64} Got 7 inches here
[10:30] {jfjf64} 8 feet
01[10:30] {@Threei}  (US) Hearing strength in WTI crude futures attributed to circulation of Genscape report - Reportedly Genscape weekly estimates shows a smaller-than-expected build in Cushing inventories
01[10:30] {@Threei}  lol
01[10:30] {@Threei}  Nasdaq touches 5000
[10:31] {dino} inches
[10:31] {jfjf64} Lol
[10:31] {jfjf64} My snow blower gettin tired
[10:32] {jfjf64} More middle week
[10:33] {jfjf64} AAPL .65 long
[10:33] {jfjf64} 1/1
[10:34] {jfjf64} 1/2
[10:34] {jfjf64} Out
01[10:34] {@Threei}  wtg
[10:35] {jfjf64} Ty
[10:36] {jfjf64} These pullbacks I'm playin get to 13 ma then little res
[10:36] {jfjf64} I'm noticing
01[10:39] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MCD  .45 break
01[10:39] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[10:39] {@Threei}  tight risk control
[10:40] {jfjf64} Lov it
01[10:40] {@Threei}  wiith this kind of profits, no way I'd risk more than 20% of it till end of the day
[10:40] {jfjf64} .35 big support
[10:41] {jfjf64} Twtr .50 l
01[10:43] {@Threei}  meh
[10:43] {jfjf64} .35 bounce
[10:44] {jfjf64} Imo
[10:44] {jfjf64} No go twtr
[10:46] {jfjf64} .40 break will try mcd
[10:47] {RonS} dino, you there?
[10:51] {jfjf64} Close to 1/1  moving stop up will not loose money
[10:52] {RonS} if money is loose it is bound to be lost...
01[10:52] {@Threei}  lol
01[10:52] {@Threei}  dino can't see you ron, he keeps eyes closed, not to see all that snow
[10:53] {jfjf64} Ron ya starting to sound like vg
[10:53] {dino} sorry ron
[10:54] {jfjf64} Twtr stopped me out no goes
[10:54] {RonS} np...you need to see this week's Barrons and read the article :The liitle guy Wins"...
[10:54] {RonS} little
[10:54] {dino} online?
[10:55] {RonS} it details the price improvement i was speaking about last week...
[10:55] {dino} ahh
[10:55] {RonS} library?
[10:56] {jfjf64} Nxpi watchin
[11:01] {jfjf64} .40
[11:01] {jfjf64} Break
[11:10] {jfjf64} grr missed it
[11:12] {jfjf64} Bastard
01[11:13] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .20 break
01[11:13] {@Threei}  If holds  .13
[11:13] {RonS} long mifi 5.33
01[11:18] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[11:25] {@Threei} Short Setup: MCD  .10 break
01[11:25] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
[11:26] {RonS} out mifi +.07 ese size...it stalled
[11:28] {dino} nice
01[11:30] {@Threei}  YHOO Ticking higher on vague chatter CEO Marissa Mayer could be ousted
01[11:30] {@Threei}  must be nice feeling for her
01[11:31] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:58] {@Threei}  (GR) Eurogroup official refutes earlier comments from Guindos about whether a third bailout program for Greece was being discussed - press - Reminder: Earlier the Spain Econ Min Guindos commented that the EMU has had discussions on a third bailout program for Greece in the amount of €30-50B
01[11:58] {@Threei}  lol
01[11:58] {@Threei}  2035: 18th bailout for Greece is being discussed; Eurogoup denies rumors
01[11:59] {@Threei}  2040: Greece says this is going to be a year it finally leaves EU
01[12:00] {@Threei}  The Nasdaq Composite has climbed above 5,000 today for the first time since the dot-com bust of 2000-01
[12:07] {RonS} today's inspirational headline: "Buying pet health insurance? Sniff out the fine print"
[12:07] {jfjf64} Stx .10 break
01[12:09] {@Threei}  lol
[12:09] {jfjf64} No go
01[12:17] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .20 break
01[12:17] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[12:22] {@Threei}  to .14
01[12:31] {@Threei}  Lottery gives you a 1 in 60M chance of skipping work tomorrow...alcohol is 1 in 5.
01[12:31] {@Threei}  You play your game...I'll play mine
[12:31] {jfjf64} Lol
[12:32] {jfjf64} Ya like iwm
[12:32] {jfjf64} .80
01[12:32] {@Threei}  not sure, too random
01[12:33] {@Threei}  rofl
01[12:34] {@Threei}  police found strange tunnel dug out in the forest not far from Toronto,
01[12:34] {@Threei}  after a few days of investigation they announced: no criminal intent, no danger,
01[12:34] {@Threei}  two men dug it out "for personal reasons"
01[12:34] {@Threei}  Comment under the article in online paper:
01[12:35] {@Threei}  "Who of us hasn't dug a tunnel for personal reason at some point in our life"
01[12:38] {@Threei}  Putin now has the elite exactly where he wants them — terrified
01[12:38] {@Threei}  He rules Russia with three things: money, propaganda and terror.
[12:38] {jfjf64} Yes he does
[12:39] {jfjf64} AAPL .95 break
01[12:39] {@Threei}  CNN has apologized for a technical glitch that showed an image of Russian Preasident Vladimir Putin during a news segment on an alleged ISIS executioner 'Jihadi John'.
01[12:39] {@Threei}  lol
[12:41] {jfjf64} .65
[12:43] {jfjf64} in
[12:44] {jfjf64} 1/1
[12:47] {jfjf64} That's funny shit cnn
01[12:48] {@Threei}  I see no error there, not sure why they apologized
[12:49] {jfjf64} Vg were you in Russia /with Putin rule
[12:49] {RonS} they don't want to get whacked...
01[12:51] {@Threei}  no
01[12:51] {@Threei}  I left in 1996
01[12:51] {@Threei}  and in any case, I am from Ukraine, nor Russia
01[12:51] {@Threei}  not
01[12:52] {@Threei}  so, I observe this Stalin v.2 from outside
[12:53] {jfjf64} I'm sorry  big dif Ukraine you. Hate this sob
01[12:53] {@Threei}  at the risk of pissing off dino and jf, https://www.facebook.com/VadymGraiferPhotography/photos/a.488848774527976.1073741828.483178015095052/801485436597640/?type=1
[12:53] {RonS} pcrx more blood
[12:55] {jfjf64} .60 long pcrx
[12:55] {jfjf64} Missed it
[12:55] {jfjf64} Gotta get me them faster ronnie
[12:56] {RonS} you will get another chance...not enough volume yet...
[12:57] {jfjf64} I'm going to grab lunch
[12:57] {RonS} wife or girlfriend?
[12:57] {jfjf64} No 1/5 ers when gone vg
01[12:57] {@Threei}  can't promise
[12:58] {jfjf64} Always my wifey ronnie
[12:58] {RonS} vdsi set sail...
[12:59] {jfjf64} Pcrx goons go
[13:02] {RonS} ah gigi...when shirley maclaine was hot
[13:03] {RonS} lol...think i saw that at 8 and still thought so...
01[13:03] {@Threei}  lol
01[13:04] {@Threei}  was that gig also 5 min man?
01[13:04] {@Threei}  gigi
[13:04] {RonS} think been on and off all day...
[13:16] {RonS} LL defends:  $LL: Lumber Liquidators disclosed response to '60 Minutes' piece in 8K filing; says 'suppliers have confirmed that... http://bit.ly/1wKm7bR
01[13:16] {@Threei} Short Setup: MCD  .90 break
01[13:16] {@Threei}  If holds  100
01[13:21] {@Threei}  1:1
01[13:22] {@Threei}  1:2
01[13:22] {@Threei}  man, jf will be pissed
01[13:22] {@Threei}  touched 1:3 but I wasn't quick enough
[13:43] {dino} vdsi sm l .75 stop lod
01[13:48] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .15 break
01[13:48] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
[14:00] {dino} pcrx smr l .62
01[14:03] {@Threei}  18 minutes this time
01[14:03] {@Threei}  progress
[14:04] {RonS} lol
[14:08] {RonS} wow googl
01[14:18] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[14:24] {@Threei}  finally 1:3 on MCD
01[14:31] {@Threei}  1:4
01[14:37] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .10 break
01[14:37] {@Threei}  If holds  27
[14:40] {jfjf64} Ahh shit
[14:40] {jfjf64} Lol
01[14:40] {@Threei}  hehe
[14:41] {jfjf64} You like gettin me
01[14:41] {@Threei}  it kind of happens
01[14:42] {@Threei}  we are back to 5 min pattern, ron
01[14:53] {@Threei}  Invalidated  VXX
[14:53] {jfjf64} AAPL .45
[14:55] {jfjf64} 1/1
[14:57] {RonS} wow LL has traded 77% of the outstanding
[14:57] {jfjf64} 1/2
[14:58] {jfjf64} 1/3
[15:00] {dino} pcrx stop
01[15:01] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MCD  .70 break
[15:01] {jfjf64} 1/4
01[15:01] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
[15:02] {jfjf64} Out
[15:04] {jfjf64} Watchin pcrx for entry
[15:05] {RonS} $65?
[15:15] {jfjf64} Pcrx .30
[15:17] {jfjf64} Nailed that bitch
01[15:20] {@Threei}  {bitch} ouch...
[15:23] {jfjf64} Looks short now pcrx ??
[15:24] {jfjf64} 93 break
[15:24] {jfjf64} ??
01[15:29] {@Threei}  half out
01[15:29] {@Threei}  stop to .64
[15:34] {jfjf64} Cbs .55 break
01[15:34] {@Threei}  1:1
01[15:34] {@Threei}  stop to .69
01[15:35] {@Threei}  this is trading heaven of a day
01[15:37] {@Threei}  Toronto police says tunnel was dug by men who wanted a cave
01[15:37] {@Threei}  OK... I can officially die laughing now
01[15:38] {@Threei}  1/4 more out MCD
[15:38] {jfjf64} You really like that story
01[15:38] {@Threei}  well... digging a tunnel in the forest "for personal reasons?"
[15:39] {jfjf64} Agree
01[15:39] {@Threei}  you get a tatoo for personal reasons
[15:39] {jfjf64} Happy happy
01[15:39] {@Threei}  or a mistress
[15:39] {jfjf64} Half out cbs
[15:40] {RonS} LL going to L in a handbasket...
[15:41] {jfjf64} You short rs
[15:42] {RonS} nah
[15:46] {jfjf64} Good night all
01[15:47] {@Threei}  closing MCD
01[15:47] {@Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
01[15:47] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow