North Korea and Mother Nature Menace Market Sentiment

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: North Korea and Mother Nature Menace Market Sentiment
Fri, 08 Sep 2017 16:04 PM EST

Many investors returned from summer breaks to find a host of issues weighing upon the market. The holiday-shortened week began with traders aggressively paring back risk in light of the escalating tensions in North Korea surrounding its latest nuclear test. With the post-hurricane recovery in Texas still just getting underway, the potentially catastrophic hurricane Irma barreled towards Florida. Economists began to downgrade Q3 growth forecasts, believing near term business activity and productivity will surely be depressed by these two historic storms, though the Fed's Dudley noted that hurricane effects are transitory and likely to reverse by early 2018 as reconstruction gets underway.



Treasury markets surged, pushing yields to the lowest levels of the year, while the US Dollar slumped to the lowest levels since early 2015. Stock prices recovered from Monday’s lows on surprise word that President Trump cut a deal with the Democrats to keep the government open, fund hurricane recovery efforts, and raise the debt ceiling. The Euro moved to a new high above 1.2070 after the ECB left rates and QE unchanged on Thursday. ECB President Draghi did not alter expectations, indicating the central bank would likely unveil its plans on exiting the asset purchase program in October. The Chinese Yuan surged to the highs of the year, testing the 200-week moving average, sparking speculation officials in Beijing were stepping in and attempting to stabilize the currency at these levels. By Friday, investors' jitteriness was only exacerbated by disclosure of an enormous data breach at credit giant Equifax, and solidifying forecasts for a direct hit in South Florida with a path that will take Irma straight up the spine of the entire state. Gold prices drifted higher, ending the week at levels not seen since right after the November election. Oil prices recovered some of last week’s losses related to Harvey, while gasoline prices retreated. For the week, the DJIA lost 0.9%, the S&P500 dipped 0.6%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.2%.



In corporate news this week, insurance stocks, notably Aspen Insurance Holdings and Everest Re, were hit as the clean-up in Texas from Hurricane Harvey continued and Irma ravaged the Caribbean, threatening a weekend landing in south Florida. A swath of regulators and politicians announced plans to probe the causes of and reaction to Equifax’s massive data breach that may have affected up to 143 million American consumers. And United Technologies announced plans to acquire manufacturer Rockwell Collins for $140/share in a $30B cash and stock deal, one of the biggest mergers in aerospace industry history.



MONDAY 9/4

(UK) PM May set to approve a politically explosive Brexit bill of up to £50B after the Conservative Party conference in October - financial press

*(EU) EURO ZONE SEPT SENTIX INVESTOR CONFIDENCE: 28.2 V 27.0E



TUESDAY 9/5

*(AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) LEAVES CASH RATE TARGET UNCHANGED AT 1.50%; AS EXPECTED

*(UK) AUG SERVICES PMI: 53.2 V 53.5E (13th month of expansion)



WEDNESDAY 9/6

(PL) POLAND CENTRAL BANK (NBP) LEAVES BASE RATE UNCHANGED AT 1.50%; AS EXPECTED

*(US) JULY TRADE BALANCE: -$43.7B V -$44.7BE

(US) AUG FINAL MARKIT SERVICES PMI: 56.0 V 56.9E

(US) Fed Vice Chair Fischer to step down on or around Oct 13th, cites personal reasons - letter to President Trump

(US) Democrats say President Trump and Congressional leaders have agreed to pass Harvey aid along with a short term debt limit and govt funding bill - press

(US) Reportedly Pres Trump is unlikely to nominate Gary Cohn as next Fed Chairman - financial press

(BR) BRAZIL CENTRAL BANK (BCB) CUTS SELIC TARGET RATE BY 100BPS TO 8.25%; AS EXPECTED

USD/CNY *(CN) PBOC SETS YUAN REFERENCE RATE AT: 6.5269 V 6.5311 PRIOR (9th consecutive stronger setting, longest run since 2011)

(AU) AUSTRALIA JULY TRADE BALANCE (A$): 460M V 1.0BE



THURSDAY 9/7

*(SE) SWEDEN CENTRAL BANK (RIKSBANK) LEAVES REPO RATE UNCHANGED AT -0.50%; maintains Repo Rate Path (as expected)

*(CN) CHINA AUG FOREIGN RESERVES: $3.0915 V $3.095TE (7th month of increase)

(EU) EURO ZONE Q2 FINAL GDP Q/Q: 0.6% V 0.6%E; Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.2%E&NBSP

FAST Reports Aug Net Rev $411.5M +12.8% y/y

(EU) ECB LEAVES MAIN 7-DAY REFINANCE RATE UNCHANGED AT 0.00%; AS EXPECTED

*(US) Q2 FINAL NONFARM PRODUCTIVITY: 1.5% V 1.3%E; UNIT LABOR COSTS: 0.2% V 0.3%E

(EU) ECB Chief Draghi: Reiterates that interest rates to remain present level well past end of QE; medium term outlook broadly for both growth and inflation

(EU) ECB Chief Draghi: Meeting did discuss growth, inflation and exchange rate - Q&A

AAPL New iPhone reportedly experienced some production problems earlier this summer; could affect supply chain and may delay shipping - press

EFX Announces cybersecurity incident involving consumer information; potentially impacts 143M US consumers; credit card numbers for 209K consumers were accessed

(JP) JAPAN Q2 FINAL GDP SA Q/Q: 0.6% V 0.7%E; ANNUALIZED: 2.5% V 2.9%E

(CN) CHINA AUG TRADE BALANCE (CNY): 286.5B V 335.7BE

(CN) CHINA AUG TRADE BALANCE: $42.0B V $48.5BE



FRIDAY 9/8

(FR) FRANCE JULY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 0.5% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 3.7% V 3.6%E

*(UK) JULY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 0.2% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 0.4% V 0.4%E

(CA) CANADA AUG NET CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT: +22.2K V +15.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 6.2% V 6.3%E

(US) Fed's Dudley (dove, FOMC voter): hurricanes push down economic activity, but those effects are transitory; longer term effect is actually an economic positive on the rebuilding activity

(US) New York Fed Nowcast: cuts Q3 GDP forecast to 2.1% from 2.2% on 9/1; sees Q4 GDP forecast at 2.6%

TGT Lowering prices on thousands of items - corporate blog

(US) Atlanta Fed raises Q3 GDP to 3.0% from 2.9% on 9/6

Barrons weekend summary:

Barrons weekend summary:  Cover article argues that the bull market may continue, but interest-rate backdrop combined with high valuations suggest risk to bull market is higher now versus any time in the past 8 years 

- Cover Story: Suggests most bull markets are derailed by recessions, as opposed to valuations or political issues; Suggests while Fed policy will not lead to a bear market, if rates are hiked more or faster than expected it could weigh on markets; Allen Root, Baird senior analyst said some think the next bear market will come from some form of central bank liquidation. 

- Does not expect Harvey impact will be large enough to ‘meaningfully’ change commercial and reinsurance pricing and hurt the large capital bases of P&C insurers. Suggests insurance companies could start providing preliminary loss estimates in the coming weeks. KBW analyst reiterated positive comments on Chubb (CB). Says companies includingAllstate (ALL), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) andProgressive (PGR) can all comfortably absorb auto-related losses.

 Nathan’s Famous (NATH) mentioned positively by Gravity Capital Management. Suggests the company may not be being properly understood given its low analyst coverage. Suggests the stock is trading below intrinsic asset value. Positive on the value of Nathan’s trademarks and royalty business. Has a failure value estimate of $80-85/share (current price: $56.95) 

Barons Capital is positive on Gartner (IT), Priceline (PCLN), Verisk Analytics (VRSK), FactSet Research (FDS), Vail Resorts (MTN) and TransUnion (TRU). 

- Tech Trader: Suggests in the future artificial-intelligence (AI) could be used to help in the development of products, which could benefit software-tool makers such as New Relic (NEWR) and Ansys (ANSS) and manufacturer Flex (FLEX). Says the next wave will be using smart software to test and refine products before humans are involved. 

Speaking of Dividends: Kian Salehizadeh, sr analyst at Reality Shares, suggests retailers TJX (TJX) and Home Depot (HD) have the ability to sustain dividend payments amid their ratios of free cash flow to annualized dividend payments. Suggests Ross Stores (ROST), Costco (COST) and Wal-Mart (WMT) have also sustainable dividends; Salehizadeh suggests Macy’s (M) dividend carries risks. Macy’s has a dividend yield of over 6% 

Finding Opportunity in High Yield Bonds: Mainstay High Yield Corporate Bond Fund is positive on Netflix (NFLX) corporate bonds, cites high market cap versus outstanding debt level and strategic value from its large global customer base. The fund did not purchase the bonds most recently issued by Tesla (TSLA) because of factors including the company’s lack of free cash flow and the lack of covenants related to the bonds. Did not purchase any of the bonds recently issued by Staples (SPLS). 

- European Trader: Suggests it could be time to consider taking profits in Antofagasta (ANTO.UK) which has risen over 50% in 2017, outperforming BHP and Fresnillo, as some bears are cautious on outlook for copper prices amid some questions over whether gains in the metal have been more driven by fundamentals or speculation. Liberum believes copper prices need to rise sharply vs current levels in order to justify Antofagasta’s current price. The firm has a sell rating on the copper miner with a price target of 420p (current price is 1,058p) 

- Asian Trader: Believes Japanese equities are ‘cheap’ based on forward earnings vs equites in Europe and the US. Chief strategist at Nomura believes Japanese corporate earnings may grow faster than US earnings. The strategist favors Japanese REITs, cites loose monetary policy and yield demand. He also says Japanese automakers are increasing their global market shares. 

- Emerging Markets: Co-manager at Henderson Global Equity Income Fund says the dividend trend for large emerging market companies seems to be improving. Notes various EM tech companies have raised dividends including Tencent (700.HK), Samsung Electronics (005930.KR) and Taiwan Semi (2330.TW). Other companies that have either restored or increased dividends include Vale, Sberbank, Wal-Mart de Mexico and Thailand’s PTT. 

Commodities: Comments on the strength in industrial metals in 2017, driven by factors including the weaker US dollar, supply cuts by miners, production reductions in China, and an overall rise in demand. S&P GSCI Industrial Metals spot index has risen 22%YTD (vs. ~19% rise in 2016). Palladium prices have risen over 40% YTD amid growth in auto production and supply deficit, says Edward Egilinsky (managing director, Direxion Investments). Prices of the metal in the future could be weighed down by move to electric cars, suggests Christopher Ecclestone (mining strategist, Hallgarten & Co). Copper has risen ~24% this year. Expects additional, although more limited, gains for certain industrial metals on concerns about tight supplies and more optimism regarding global growth. China’s proposed ban on the import of scrap metal will increase demand for copper concentrate, also prices could gradually rise as finding additional copper supplies becomes more costly, says Nico Pantelis (head of research, Secular Investor); Zinc prices on the LME recently hit close to 10-year high, as China reduced capacity and various large mines have shut down over past few years. Zinc prices longer term could have more upward than downward pressure, positive on Galway Metals (GWM.CA) and Tinka Resources (TK.CA), says Brent Cook (co-author of Exploration Insights). Iron-ore -3.2% YTD near $77.10/mt amid recent decline in steel prices, which could temporarily cap further gains, suggests prices could remain in the $70s if China’s steel production remains relatively strong.

Stocks shrug off biblical floods and North Korean hostility, helped by weaker US dollar

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Stocks shrug off biblical floods and North Korean hostility, helped by weaker US dollar
Fri, 01 Sep 2017 16:10 PM EST

Stock markets moved higher this week in continued thin, late summer trading conditions. Investors once again quickly looked past the concerning escalation of hostility by the North Korean regime, and catastrophic floods in the Houston area brought about by the historic rains of Hurricane Harvey. A narrative emerged that politicians in Washington would be more likely to come together and pass legislation in order to support Texas in its hour of need, rather than bicker over raising the debt ceiling when they return to work next week. Wednesday, the President kicked off what is expected to be an all-out press to get major tax reform signed into law by the end of the year at a address in Missouri. By Friday reports circulated that Trump was going to request $5.9B in Harvey aid while also pulling back on a threat of a forced government shutdown over border wall funding. Major US indices rose back to within striking distance of all time highs, lead by the NASDAQ, while the VIX fell 10% to sit just above 10 once again. For the week the S&P rose 1.4%, the Dow added 0.8% and the NASDAQ gained 2.7%.

The US Dollar fell to fresh two-year lows, leading to a print above 1.20 in the Euro which rekindled speculation the ECB could hold back when they lay out expected plans to start moving away from QE. The economic data remained solid, headlined by a Q2 GDP print of 3% and a host of robust manufacturing PMIs, while inflation readings remained soft but within recent ranges. Friday's jobs report caused a little bit of indigestion when most components came in below expectations. The markets response though quickly indicated few were expecting the Aug data to have a material impact on the Fed’s economic outlook. Metals markets moved to fresh multi-year highs, in many cases helped by the softer Greenback and healthy growth prospects. Energy markets were pushed around by refinery/pipeline outages resulting from flooding in Texas and Louisiana. Gasoline futures rose on expected shortages in refined product coming to markets east of the Rockies, while crude prices remained heavy on the notion that a crude glut would grow as Permian and Eagle Ford shale oil would have to find storage until flows into key Gulf refineries could be reopened.

In corporate news, the week started off with the announcement that Gilead would acquire Kite Pharma for $180/shr in an $11B deal to bolster its cancer treatment portfolio. Best Buy posted a solid earnings report and raised its revenue outlook, but shares fell after it warned that the bounce in margins seen this period would moderate in coming quarters. Building material names were buoyed for the week on predicted upcoming reconstruction funds for the Texas region post-Hurricane Harvey.

MONDAY 8/28
*(EU) EURO ZONE JULY M3 MONEY SUPPLY Y/Y: 4.5% V 4.9%E
(JP) JAPAN GOVT ISSUES WARNING TO PEOPLE IN NORTHERN PART OF COUNTRY OVER POSSIBLE INCOMING MISSILE LAUNCHED FROM NORTH KOREA - Japan press

TUESDAY 8/29
(DE) GERMANY SEPT GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 10.9 V 10.8E (highest since Oct 2001)
(FR) FRANCE Q2 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.5% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 1.7% V 1.8%E
BBY Reports Q2 $0.69 v $0.63e, Rev $8.94B v $8.66Be
(US) AUG CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 122.9 V 120.7E
(KR) UN Security Council: Condemned North Korea's firing of a ballistic missile over Japan as an "outrageous" act and demanded that Pyongyang not launch any more missiles and abandon all nuclear weapons and programs

WEDNESDAY 8/30
1398.HK Reports H1 (CNY) Net 153B v 153Be, Net Interest Income 250.9B
3988.HK Reports H1 (CNY) Net 103.7B v 94.7Be, Total Op Income 248.4B v 262.6B y/y
(EU) EURO ZONE AUG BUSINESS CLIMATE INDICATOR: 1.09 V 1.05E; FINAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: -1.5 V -1.5E
939.HK Reports H1 (CNY) Net 138.3B v 133.4B y/y; Op Income 303.1B v 295.7B y/y
(DE) GERMANY AUG PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.1% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 1.8% V 1.8%E
(US) AUG ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +237K V +185KE
(US) Q2 PRELIMINARY GDP PRICE INDEX: 1.0% V 1.0%E; CORE PCE Q/Q: 0.9% V 0.9%E
(US) Q2 PRELIMINARY GDP ANNUALIZED (2nd reading) Q/Q: 3.0% V 2.7%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 3.3% V 3.0%E
(US) President Trump tweets: "The US has been talking to North Korea, and paying them extortion money, for 25 years. Talking is not the answer!"
CA.FR Reports H1 adj net €154.0M v €235.0M y/y, EBIT €621M v €675Me, Net Rev €38.5B v €36.3B y/y
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Aug 26th: 551.8K carloads and intermodal units, +2.3% y/y (33rd straight week of gains)
(US) Colonial Pipeline update: Main gasoline line from Gulf Coast to US northeast to shut Thursday
(CN) CHINA AUG OFFICIAL GOVT MANUFACTURING PMI: 51.7 V 51.3E (13th month of expansion)
(KR) BANK OF KOREA (BOK) LEAVES REPO RATE UNCHANGED AT 1.25%; AS EXPECTED (14th straight pause in the current easing cycle)
COST Reports Aug Total SSS (ex gas) 5.9%; US SSS (ex gas) +6.1% v +3.9%e

THURSDAY 8/31
(FR) FRANCE AUG PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.5% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 0.9% V 0.9%E
(DE) GERMANY AUG NET UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -5K V -6KE ; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 5.7% V 5.7%E
(EU) EURO ZONE AUG ADVANCE CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: 1.5% V 1.4%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 1.2% V 1.2%E
(EU) EURO ZONE JULY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 9.1% V 9.1%E (matches lowest level from Feb 2009)
EUR/USD (EU) Euro currency strength concerns said to be a growing concern among ECB members thus raising the chance its asset purchases will be phased out only slowly - financial press citing several sources familiar with discussions
(US) JULY PERSONAL INCOME: 0.4% V 0.3%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: 0.3% V 0.4%E
(US) JULY PCE DEFLATOR M/M: 0.1% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 1.4% V 1.4%E
(US) JULY PCE CORE M/M: 0.1% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 1.4% V 1.4%E
(US) AUG CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER: 58.9 V 58.5E
(US) JULY PENDING HOME SALES M/M: -0.8% V +0.3%E; Y/Y: -0.5% V +0.5%E
(US) Atlanta Fed cuts Q3 GDP to 3.3% from 3.4% on 8/25
(CN) CHINA AUG CAIXIN PMI MANUFACTURING 51.6 V 51.0E (Highest since Feb)

FRIDAY 9/1
(IN) INDIA AUG MANUFACTURING PMI: 51.2 V 47.9 PRIOR
(HK) Macau Aug Gaming Rev MOP22.7B, +20.4% y/y
(UK) AUG PMI MANUFACTURING: 56.9 V 55.0E (13th month of expansion)
(US) AUG UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.4% V 4.3%E
(US) AUG AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M: 0.1% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 2.5% V 2.6%E; AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS: 34.4 V 34.5E
(US) AUG CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: +156K V +180KE
(EU) ECB said to see chance of QE plan not fully ready until Dec - financial press
GM Reports Aug US vehicle sales +7.5% y/y, at 275.6K units v 261.2Ke

Barrons weekend summary

Barrons weekend summary: Cover story positive on suppliers for military space tech; positive features on PYPL, MDT, YUMC, VNO, SLG 

Cover story: With rocket launch costs falling during the past decade and tech billionaires pouring money into space ventures, a “new space age” is here; Private startups such as Arianespace, Blue Origin, OneWeb, and SpaceX pose a risk to incumbent satellite companies, but companies that cater to the military, such as BA, LMT, OA, and VSAT, are safer bets for investors. 

Features: 

1) Positive on VNO, SLG: Continued growth in commercial real estate development in Manhattan has dinged the shares of the two REITs, but industry pressure is already priced in, and each looks inexpensive; 

2) Positive on MDT: Shares are down amid investor skepticism about the medical-device company’s ability to deliver continued growth, but the concern seems overblown, and new product launches should boost margins; 

3) Positive on YUMC: As China’s middle-class population continues to grow the company is set to add 15,000 locations during the next 15 years, boosting profit growth and creating the possibility for a 30% return over the next year or two; 

4) Positive on PYPL: Payment company’s deals with V and MA and its Choice feature have paid off, and new innovations it plans to release could send shares up by another 16%.

Tech Trader: Positive on INTC: Sectors in which the tech giant once dominated, including servers and personal computers, have slowed down, but after missing the mobile revolution it could still gain ground in the computer-networking area dominated by CAVM, NXPI, QCOM, and Imagination Technologies. 

Trader: The upcoming U.S. payrolls report could go a long way toward determining whether the Fed will raise rates, as the futures market is predicting, or keep tightening; Value stocks have lagged so badly during the past 10 years that may now be time to buy them; Canadian Tire—“a blend of SHLD, WMT, and TGT rolled into one”—has so far avoided being disrupted by AMZN, partly because Canada is a low-density market. 

Profile: Mike Buckius and Paul Stewart of Gateway fund, one of the largest and oldest alternative mutual funds, employ an options strategy to get around high asset prices and geopolitical tension. 

Interview: Doug Ramsey of Leuthold Group believes a short-term downturn is ahead, to be followed by an uptick in 2018 that could be the bull market’s last. 

Follow-Up: Positive on AVGO: Shares still have room to run as the chipmaker benefits from AAPL’s new iPhone and ANET’s ongoing success, and for now the shares are reasonably priced. 

European Trader: The rally in Polish stocks doesn’t seem likely to end yet; valuations remain attractive and the country’s economic and monetary policy backdrop is helping. 

Asian Trader: Shares of South Korean stocks have taken a hit amid growing tensions between the U.S. and North Korea, presenting a buying opportunity for investors who can look past the situation. 

Emerging Markets: Positive on INFY: Despite the recent board shakeup, company’s shares are “too cheap to ignore,” and several catalysts—including a major buyback—could push them higher. 

Commodities: “When it comes to major oil producers’ market-share struggle against their U.S. shale rivals, there has been no clear winner—and that could keep prices stuck between $40 and $50 a barrel for the rest of the year.” 

Streetwise: Fundstrat’s Thomas Lee expects companies to respond to tightening labor markets by spending more on technology and automation, and suggests investors look at “wage insensitive” companies with large market caps and sales per employee (Positive on Liberty Media, FB, OLED, AAPL, SBAC, ABMD)

Markets Stabilize on European Strength; Harvey Looms Over Energy

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update:  Markets Stabilize on European Strength; Harvey Looms Over Energy
Fri, 25 Aug 2017 16:06 PM EST

US stock markets commenced the week testing more than one month lows in most cases. The S&P found support just above the 100-day moving average on Tuesday. As Washington looked to put the controversy surrounding the President and his reaction to Charlottesville in the rear view mirror, rekindled hopes for genuine tax reform along with thin summer trading conditions were widely cited as fostering the turnaround. A host of late season retail earnings reports surpassed expectations which provided a boost to investor sentiment. The Russel 2000 led the way higher as investors placed bets small cap US centric businesses would get the most benefit from tax relief. For the week, the DJIA gained 0.7%, the S&P500 added 0.7%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.8%.

The greenback retreated further led by strength in the Euro. The economic data, Europe’s in particular, continued to signal building economic momentum. By Friday when neither Fed Chair Yellen nor ECB President Draghi directly addressed monetary policy at the Jackson Hole symposium, the Euro hit fresh one and half year highs above 1.1920. Gasoline prices moved up late in the week as it became clear Hurricane Harvey would make landfall in southern Texas and bring with it up to 30 inches of rain.

MONDAY, AUG 21
BHP.AU Reports FY17 underlying Net $6.73B v $7.3Be; Rev $38.3B v $38.3Be; to exit US onshore assets

TUESDAY, AUG 22
*(DE) GERMANY AUG ZEW CURRENT SITUATION SURVEY: 86.7 V 85.2E; EXPECTATION SURVEY: 10.0 V 15.0E
(UK) AUG CBI INDUSTRIAL TRENDS TOTAL ORDERS: 13 V 8E
(US) AUG RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: 14 V 10E
CRM Reports Q2 $0.33 v $0.31e, Rev $2.56B v $2.51Be

WEDNESDAY, AUG 23RD
(FR) FRANCE AUG PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 55.8 V 54.5E (10th month of expansion)
(EU) ECB's Draghi: Research helps us decide whether a change in facts deserves a policy response or look through it - comments from Lindau
(DE) GERMANY AUG PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 59.4 V 57.6E (33rd month of expansion)
(EU) EURO ZONE AUG PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 57.4 V 56.3E (49th month of expansion)
WMT Partners with Google on voice shopping in a challenge to Amazon’s Alexa - Recode
*(US) JULY NEW HOME SALES: 571K V 610KE
(EU) EURO ZONE AUG ADVANCE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: -1.5 V -1.8E
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Aug 19th: 554.0K carloads and intermodal units, +4.4% y/y (32nd straight week of gains)
(HK) According to Nomura, Macau typhoon to impact casino Aug rev by up to 700bps - financial press

THURSDAY, AUG 24TH
(FR) FRANCE AUG BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 109 V 108E ; MANUFACTURING CONFIDENCE: 111 V 108E
(UK) Q2 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.3% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 1.7% V 1.7%E
494.HK Reports H1 Net $101M v $72M y/y, adj Op $172M v $152N y/y, Rev $7.26B v $7.42B y/y
TIF Reports Q2 $0.92 v $0.88e, Rev $960M v $933Me
(US) JULY EXISTING HOME SALES: 5.44M V 5.55ME
WFM Amazon and Whole Foods announce acquisition to close this Monday; Prime Members to get discounts at Whole Foods

FRIDAY, AUG 25TH
(US) JULY PRELIMINARY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: -6.8% V -6.0%E; DURABLES EX TRANSPORTATION: 0.5% V 0.4%E
(US) Fed Chair Yellen: core reforms boosted financial system; open to reviewing Volcker rule - comments from Jackson Hole; does not discuss monetary policy
(EU) ECB Draghi: Global recovery is firming up; does not comment on ECB policy directly or foreign exchange - comments from Jackson Hole
(US) NHC: Hurricane Harvey strengthens to a category 2 storm; dangerously approaching the Texas Coast

Barron’s weekend summary

Barron’s weekend summary: Positive cover story on SBUX; positive features on LMT, GDI; cautious on MSI 

Cover story: Positive on SBUX: Coffee chain’s mobile order-and-pay feature has become a major hit, forcing the company to rethink store layouts and hire preorder specialists to manage the greater demand; As rival services from PYPL and AAPL languish, Starbucks’ pay app could help send shares up 20%. 

Features: 

1) Positive on LMT: The top American defense contractor could see more gains ahead as U.S. military spending increases amid growing global tensions, making it a safe bet in tumultuous times; 

2) Cautious on MSI: As FirstNet—a multibillion-dollar broadband network that links the country’s police, fire, and emergency officers—is rolled out, demand for Motorola’s radios could plummet; 

3) Positive on GDI: Under owner KKR, the maker of pumps, compressors, and flow-control devices has hired new talent, accelerated growth, and allocated capital more wisely, giving shares a 40% upside. 

Tech Trader: Positive on VERI: As artificial intelligence continues to evolve, the company is leading the way in bringing it to the enterprise with a platform that can run AI to manage a range of tasks for businesses of all sizes. 

Trader: The recent market drop ended the S&P 500’s streak of 196 days without registering as oversold, based on its proximity to its 50-day moving average, according to Bespoke Investment Group; Ongoing turmoil “could be the new normal for retail stocks, but for intrepid investors with the stomach for it, the market’s sudden swings could provide opportunity”; Imperial Capital analyst Michael Derchin says the lower reaches of the airline sector could see a wave of consolidation. 

Interview: Henry Ellenbogen of the T. Rowe Price New Horizons fund “invests in a winning mix of public and private growth companies,” many of which apply technology in innovative ways (picks: MTN, GWRE, Liberty Expedia, GRUB). 

Profile: Nevin Chitkara, portfolio manager of MFS Value, looks for durable companies that can stand the test of time, generate cash, and maintain a strong balance sheet (top 10 holdings: JPM, PM, JNJ, WFC, ACN, MDT, USB, JCI, MMM, PFE). 

Follow-Up: Positive on AAP: Though shares are down on second-quarter results amid industry softness, the company’s turnaround and future prospects remain intact; Dana Telsey of Yardeni Research says retail investors should focus on high end and general retailers and avoid the apparel sector (positive on LVMH, Kering, EL, ULTA, TGT). 

European Trader: Positive on Pandora: Investors have sent the Danish jewelry maker’s shares down, but they look like a deal for bargain hunters, and the company is set to deliver solid growth. 

Asian Trader: The “mixed ownership” paradigm in which the Chinese government had private companies invest in China Unicom will eventually be found in energy and transportation. 

Emerging Markets: The emerging markets technology sector continues to expand rapidly, making some investors nervous, but a correction probably wouldn’t lead to another dot-com bust. 

Commodities: The drop in spring wheat production has eaten into supplies, but wheat overall isn’t in short supply, and prices aren’t likely to keep rising. 

Streetwise: “The fervor with which we seize prevailing narratives points to market in which liquidity is abundant, valuations are rich, and investors are increasingly nervous about festering risks,” says Kopin Tan.

Markets Made Queasy by Mounting White House Chaos and Spain Terror Attack

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Markets Made Queasy by Mounting White House Chaos and Spain Terror Attack
Fri, 18 Aug 2017 16:18 PM EST

The week began in the fog of the latest Trump controversy, as voices from all sides chastised the President for not denouncing white supremacy more forcefully after the terrible events in Virginia last weekend. Markets didn’t really seem to notice though, as seemingly insatiable demand for higher yielding, higher profile bond offerings including those from Tesla and Amazon resulted in a bounce back in equity markets. The VIX dropped back sharply yet again as the “fire and fury” volatility of last week quickly dissipated. Market perceptions began to shift again after Tuesday’s angry press conference during which the President doubled down on what most perceived as highly divisive and inflammatory rhetoric in the wake of the disturbing images out of Charlottesville. By Wednesday, White House advisory councils that included some of the most prominent and influential US business leaders had agreed to disband in attempt to distance themselves from Trump. Thursday saw concerns that the President’s window to reach tax reform had already closed, which were exacerbated by rumors that White House economic adviser Gary Cohn was set to resign. Risk-averse flows picked up momentum after details of another disturbing terrorist ramming attack trickled out from Barcelona, Spain. Friday saw stock indices test below last Thursday’s low and US Treasury yields also reach the lowest levels since June before news broke that the White House had decided to relieve advisor Bannon from his role, stabilizing risk sentiment.

The US economic data largely surpassed expectations throughout the week, helping the Greenback consolidate the post July jobs report move for much of the first half of the week. Wednesday’s Fed minutes and Thursday’s ECB minutes were both greeted as somewhat dovish and lowered expectations heading into Jackson Hole next week. Gold, which saw prices test $1,300 for the third time this year, the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc all benefited from risk averse trading flows. Crude futures rallied on Friday, recouping nearly all the week’s losses, helped by a decline in the Baker Hughes rig count. The NASDAQ registered its fourth straight down week, while the small cap Russel 2000 has now dropped more than 6% from the recent high. For the week, the DJIA fell 0.8%, the S&P500 lost 0.7%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.6%.

In corporate news this week, the focus was on retailer results as earnings season wound down. Target was boosted after reporting an increase in traffic and raising its guidance, while Dick’s shares fell on an earnings miss and increased promotional activity. Foot Locker lowered its outlook on poor results due to a shift in the retail landscape, and Limited Brands missed on same store comps and cut its full year guidance as Victoria's Secret continued to struggle. Alibaba shares lifted following a big earnings beat, boosted by steady growth in its e-commerce revenue. Amazon shares were hit after President Trump tweeted that the internet giant is “doing great damage to tax-paying retailers.”

SUNDAY 8/13
(HK) Hong Kong Financial Services Chief Chan: No plan to ease anti-property cooling steps
(CN) CHINA JUL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 6.4% V 7.1%E; YTD Y/Y: 6.8% V 6.9%E

MONDAY 8/14
(IN) INDIA JULY CPI Y/Y: 2.4% V 2.1%E
(CN) China National Energy Administration (NEA): China Jul power consumption: 607.2B KWH, +9.9% y/y (4th consecutive rise)

TUESDAY 8/15
(CN) PBOC Adviser Sheng Songcheng: Cut of RRR is not in line with China's policy, more likely to use SLF, MLF and PSL
(DE) GERMANY Q2 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.6% V 0.7%E; Y/Y: 2.1% V 1.9%E; GDP NSA Y/Y: 0.8% V 0.6%E
(CN) CHINA JULY NEW YUAN LOANS (CNY): 825.5B V 800BE
(UK) JULY CPI M/M: -0.1% V 0.0%E; Y/Y: 2.6% V 2.7%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 2.4% V 2.5%E
HD Reports Q2 $2.25 v $2.21e, Rev $28.1B v $27.8Be
(US) JULY ADVANCE RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.6% V 0.3%E; RETAIL SALES EX AUTO M/M: 0.5% V 0.3%E
(US) JULY IMPORT PRICE INDEX M/M: 0.1% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 1.5% V 1.5%E
(US) AUG EMPIRE MANUFACTURING: 25.2 V 10.0E (highest since Sept 2014)
(US) AUG NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX: 68 V 64E (3 month high)
AMZN Launches $16B seven-part debt offering (upsized from around $15B) - press
(US) JUN TOTAL NET TIC FLOWS: $7.7B V $57.3B PRIOR; NET LONG-TERM TIC FLOWS: $34.4B V $91.9B PRIOR
(BR) Brazil Govt confirms to increase 2017 and 2018 fiscal deficit targets to BRL159B (from deficits of BRL139B and BRL129B respecitvely) citing decline in government revenues.

WEDNESDAY 8/16
CARLB.DK Reports H1 (DKK) adj EBIT 4.13B v 3.85Be, Rev 31.8B v 32.2Be
MAERSKB.DK Reports Q2 Net -$264M v +$507Me, EBIT $302M v $896Me, R$9.6B v $9.6Be
*(TH) THAILAND CENTRAL BANK (BOT) LEAVES BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE UNCHANGED AT 1.50% (as expected)
(IT) ITALY Q2 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.4% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 1.5% V 1.4%E
(UK) JUN AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS 3M/Y: 2.1% V 1.8%E; WEEKLY EARNINGS EX BONUS 3M/Y: 2.1% V 2.0%E
(UK) JULY JOBLESS CLAIMS CHANGE: -4.2K V +3.5K PRIOR; CLAIMANT COUNT RATE: 2.3% V 2.3% PRIOR
(UK) JUN ILO UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.4% V 4.5%E (lowest since 1975)
(EU) EURO ZONE Q2 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.6% V 0.6%E; Y/Y: 2.2% V 2.1%E
700.HK Reports Q2 (CNY) Net 18.2B v 13.5Be, Rev 56.6B v 52.9Be
TGT Reports Q2 $1.23 v $1.20e, Rev $16.4B v $16.2Be
(US) JULY HOUSING STARTS: 1.16M V 1.22ME; BUILDING PERMITS: 1.22M V 1.25ME
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Aug 12th: 548.8K carloads and intermodal units, % y/y (31st straight week of gains)
(US) Trump Strategy and Policy Council reportedly to disband - press
(US) FOMC MINUTES FROM JUNE 14 MEETING: SEVERAL PARTICIPANTS READY TO MOVE ON BALANCE SHEET IN JULY; OTHERS SEEKING CONFIRMATION WEAK INFLATION IS TRANSITORY BEFORE NEXT HIKE
CSCO Reports Q4 $0.61 v $0.61e, Rev $12.1B v $12.1Be
TLS.AU Reports FY17 Net A$3.89B v A$3.82Be; EBITDA A$10.7B v A$10.5B y/y; Rev A$26.0B v A$26.7B y/y; Revises dividend policy to pay out of 70-90% of underlying earnings as of FY18 v ‘almost 100% of profits prior’; Guides FY18 dividend A$0.22 , -29% y/y (new implied yield ~5.5%) suspends dividend reinvestment plan
(AU) AUSTRALIA JULY EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +27.9K V +20.0KE (5th straight increase); UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 5.6% V 5.6%E

THURSDAY 8/17
(UK) JULY RETAIL SALES (EX AUTO/FUEL ) M/M: 0.5% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 1.5% V 1.2%E
(EU) EURO ZONE JULY FINAL CPI Y/Y: 1.3% V 1.3%E ; CPI CORE Y/Y: 1.2% V 1.2%E
(EU) ECB ACCOUNT OF THE MONETARY POLICY MEETING (JULY MINUTES): Officials expressed concern over risk of Euro overshoot
(US) AUG PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK: 18.9 V 18.0E (lowest since Nov)
(US) JULY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 0.2% V 0.3%E; CAPACITY UTILIZATION: 76.7% V 76.7%E
(US) JULY LEADING INDEX: 0.3% V 0.3%E
AMAT Reports Q3 $0.86 v $0.83e, Rev $3.74B v $3.69Be
GPS Reports Q2 $0.68 v $0.52e, Rev $3.80B v $3.77Be
(CH) CHILE CENTRAL BANK (BCCH) LEAVES OVERNIGHT RATE TARGET UNCHANGED AT 2.50%, AS EXPECTED
992.HK Reports Q1 Net loss $72M v profit $33Me; Rev $10.0B v $9.9Be
(CN) CHINA JUL PROPERTY PRICES M/M: RISE IN 56 OUT OF 70 CITES VS 60 PRIOR; Y/Y RISE IN 70 OUT OF 70 CITIES VS 70 PRIOR
(CN) Chinese Expert: US won’t win and cannot afford trade war against China - People’s Daily (Opinion piece)

FRIDAY 8/18
DE Reports Q3 $1.97 v $1.93e, Rev $6.83B v $6.88Be
(US) AUG PRELIMINARY UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 97.6 V 94.0E
(US) White House officials reportedly expect Trump adviser Bannon to be fired - Axios
(US) New York Fed Nowcast: raises Q3 GDP forecast to 2.1% from 2.0% on 8/11
(US) Weekly Baker Hughes US Rig Count: 946 v 949 w/w (-0.3% w/w)

Barron’s weekend update

Barron’s weekend update: Cautious cover story on NFLX; positive feature on VOW3.DE 

Cover story: NFLX, which helped create the streaming movie business, “has a plot flaw, one that could cut its share price by more than half by the end of the decade”: It doesn’t own content—even its Netflix Originals are licensed—while companies such as DIS and FB are increasingly turning into competitors. 

Features: 

1) Excerpt from Joel Tillinghast’s new book, “Big Money Thinks Small,” in which the author says the best investment risks are those that can be analyzed clearly and that offer favorable odds; 

2) Positive on Volkswagen: Automaker has the lowest price/earnings ratio in the industry, while its luxury brands—Porsche and Audi—are undervalued; as its emissions scandal recedes, shares could rise by 50%. 

Tech Trader: Positive on MSFT: Tech giant has deftly managed a transformation into cloud computing without denting its profit margins, while its computer game division and LNKD acquisition add to the success story; Shares could rise by more than 20% during the next year. 

Trader: Geopolitics can create anxiety in markets, says Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg, but they aren’t going to bring the U.S. economy down; The S&P 500’s forward price/earnings ratio is higher than it was three years ago, meaning a lot of good news is already priced into shares; Positive on DKS: Sporting goods chain should benefit as rivals shutter stores because of AMZN, leaving it to gain market share while finding ways to fend off the e-commerce giant. 

Interviews: 

1) Joel Tillinghast, manager of the Fidelity Low-Priced Stock fund, which has returned 13.8% a year since its launch in 1989 (picks: Japan: Dvx, Central Automotive Products; Korea: Nice Info & Telecommunications, Korea Electric Terminal; Ireland: Abbey; Norway: Sparebank 1 Oestlandet); 

2) Andy Rothman, strategist at Matthews Asia, talks about China’s economic prospects and says investors could have a great buying opportunity if the Trump administration goes after Chinese exports. 

Profile: Jenna Barnard and John Pattullo, co-managers of the Janus Henderson Strategic Income fund, generally don’t own cyclicals because of unpredictable cash flow, with the exception of financials (top 10 sectors: corporate high yield, corporate investment grade, Treasuries, bank loans, credit default swaps, ABS, government related, commercial mortgage-backed securities, short credit default swaps, cash & equivalents). 

International Trader: Cautious on Paddy Power Betfair: Analysts see double-digit percentage growth in profits and revenue during the next few years, but valuation remains a concern for some. 

Asian Trader: Hong Kong’s weakening currency could derail this year’s rally on the local Hang Seng Index, among the world’s top performing markets to date. 

Emerging Markets: The broad case for Africa isn’t as strong as it once was, says Scott Thomas of the Wasatch Frontier Emerging Small Countries fund; investors should hold diversified funds or global funds with African exposure. 

Commodities: “Oil’s recent rally has run out of steam, and the path of last resistance continues to be lower for the beleaguered market.” 

Streetwise: Ulf Lindahl, chief executive of currency management firm A.G. Bisset, believes the dollar’s decline has only begun, a situation that when combined with high stock prices creates a risky environment.

North Korea Tensions Sap Risk Appetite

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update:  North Korea Tensions Sap Risk Appetite
Fri, 11 Aug 2017 16:22 PM EST

US equities had their worst week in months as global markets took a risk-off tone in response to increasingly bellicose rhetoric between President Trump and North Korea. European bourses were also hit by the multi-day selloff, with the Stoxx 600 headed for its worst week since November. Traditional safe haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc rose, increasing volatility sent the VIX up 49% by Friday, and gold shot up to a two-month high. The Greenback had strengthened Tuesday on the back of another record high in the US JOLTS job openings data, but the dollar weakened later in the week after PPI data came in lower than expected and Fed's Dudley made remarks that sounded more cautious about the inflation outlook than he did just a couple of months ago. CPI data on Friday also came in below consensus, lowering the probability on futures markets for a Fed December rate hike to 40%, which helped to put a floor under US markets' downward drop. In South Africa, Pres Zuma survived yet another ‘no-confidence’ vote, sending the Rand sliding. For the week, the DJIA lost 1.1%, the S&P500 dropped 1.4%, and the Nasdaq dipped 1.5%.

In corporate news, earnings season wound down with a few more surprises. Disney weighed on the Dow as investors appeared reluctant to look past another quarter of disappointing results, particularly for ESPN and the media division, even as management tried to put focus on the upcoming launch of a branded streaming service. Snap breached a new low after reporting disappointing earnings, lower than expected daily usage numbers, and a slowdown in Spectacles sales. Macy’s and JC Penney’s earnings showed the woes for retailers aren’t over: shares of both mall anchors hit new 52-week lows after reporting more grim numbers weighed on by heavy promotional activity and the digestion of store closures. Meanwhile, reports emerged that Amazon is entering another new sector, this time the venue ticketing market, hitting shares of Live Nation and Stubhub’s parent eBay. Rockwell Collins was lifted on speculation that UTX is working towards a bid.


SUNDAY AUG 6
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q3 INFLATION EXPECTATION SURVEY: 2-YEAR INFLATION EXPECTATION 2.09% V 2.17% PRIOR

MONDAY AUG 7
TSLA Files to sell $1.5B 2025 unsecured notes (2.6% of market cap)
(CN) CHINA JULY FOREIGN RESERVES: $3.081T V $3.075TE (6th straight increase and 9-month high)
(EU) EURO ZONE AUG SENTIX INVESTOR CONFIDENCE: 27.7 V 27.6E
TATA.IN Reports Q1 (INR) Net 9.18B v 11.4Be, Rev 308B v 284.7Be
(ZA) South Africa Parliamentary speaker Mbete: parliament to hold secret ballot on Pres Zuma no-confidence vote - press
(CN) CHINA JULY TRADE BALANCE (CNY): 321.2B V 297.4BE
(CN) CHINA JULY TRADE BALANCE: $46.7B V $45.0BE

TUESDAY AUG 8
(CN) China Passenger Car Association (PCA): Jul vehicle sales 1.7M units, +5.5% y/y; YTD sales 12.5M units, +0.6% y/y
DPW.DE Reports Q2 Net €602M v €595Me, EBIT €841M v €752M y/y, Rev €14.8B v €14.2B y/y
VRX Reports Q2 (GAAP) -$0.11 v -$0.88 y/y, Rev $2.23B v $2.24Be
(US) JUN JOLTS JOB OPENINGS: 6.16M V 5.70ME (record high)
(KR) North Korea is said to have produced a miniaturized nuclear warhead that could fit inside a missile, according to US intel assessment - Wash Post
(ZA) SOUTH AFRICA PRESIDENT ZUMA SURVIVES NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE; Parliament votes against no confidence motion via secret ballot
(US) President Trump: North Korea should not make any further threats against the US, it would "be met with fire and fury"
DIS Reports Q3 $1.58 v $1.53e, Rev $14.24B v $14.4Be
(KR) North Korea state media: US war hysteria will bring a miserable end; North Korea could strike before any preemptive attack by the US, could strike Guam with mid-to-long range missiles
(CN) CHINA JULY CPI Y/Y: 1.4% V 1.5%E; PPI Y/Y: 5.5% V 5.6%E

WEDNESDAY AUG 9
(FR) BANK OF FRANCE JULY BUSINESS SENTIMENT: 105 V 103E
(US) Q2 PRELIMINARY NONFARM PRODUCTIVITY: 0.9% V 0.7%E ; UNIT LABOR COSTS: 0.6% V 1.1%E
(US) Atlanta Fed cuts Q3 GDP to 3.5% from 3.7% on 8/4
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Aug 5th: 554.8K carloads and intermodal units, +4.3% y/y (30th straight week of gains)
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND CENTRAL BANK (RBNZ) LEAVES OFFICIAL CASH RATE (OCR) UNCHANGED AT 1.75%; AS EXPECTED
(CN) PBOC SETS YUAN REFERENCE RATE AT: 6.6770 V 6.7075 PRIOR (strongest setting since Sept 29th)

THURSDAY AUG 10
TKA.DE Reports Q3 adj Net €120M v €130M y/y, adj EBIT €620M v €441M y/y, Rev €10.9B v €10.5Be
(FR) FRANCE JUN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: -1.1% V -0.6%E; Y/Y: 2.6% V 3.1%E
(PH) PHILIPPINES CENTRAL BANK (BSP) LEAVES OVERNIGHT BORROWING RATE UNCHANGED AT 3.00%; AS EXPECTED
(UK) JUN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 0.5% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: +0.3% V -0.1%E
M Reports Q2 $0.48 adj v $0.44e, Rev $5.55B v $5.50Be
(US) JULY PPI FINAL DEMAND M/M: -0.1% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 1.9% V 2.2%E
(MX) MEXICO CENTRAL BANK (BANXICO) LEAVES OVERNIGHT RATE UNCHANGED AT 7.00%; AS EXPECTED
(KR) President Trump: Maybe my 'fire and fury' warning statement to North Korea wasn't tough enough - comments in Bridgewater, NJ
LYV Amazon reportedly has sought partner with venue owners to enter event ticketing market in the US; Amazon previously held talks with Live Nation's Ticketmaster but those conversations have stalled - press
SNAP Reports Q2 -$0.16 v -$0.14e, Rev $181.7M v $187Me
NVDA Reports Q2 $1.01 v $0.69e, Rev $2.23B v $1.95Be
(AU) RBA Gov Lowe: Not prepared to intervene at moment, but prepared to intervene in A$ in 'extreme' situations

FRIDAY AUG 11
(US) JULY CPI M/M: 0.1% V 0.2%E; CPI EX FOOD AND ENERGY M/M: 0.1% V 0.2%E; CPI INDEX NSA: 244,786 V 244.925E
(US) Weekly Baker Hughes US Rig Count: 949 v 954 w/w (-0.5% w/w)

Barron’s cover story

Barron’s cover story looks at tech giants threat to old media names; Positive features on VOYA and DAL 

Cover story: With their deep pockets, tech giants such as AMZN, FB, and GOOGL could begin to threaten the dominance of TV networks that broadcast football and other major sports; In a changing media landscape, the major broadcast networks—ABC, CBS, NBC, and Fox—are better positioned than cable rivals because of their strong in-house production operations. 

Features: 

1) A panel of experts—Jenny Van Leeuwen Harrington of Gillman Hill Asset Management, Richard Daskin of RSD Advisors, Maury Fertig of Relative Value Partners, and Michael Terwilliger of Resource Credit Income—discuss income investing and offer picks (HYD, BAB, BLW, EVG, DRA, Chimera Preferred Series B, MMP, SKT, HASI, WHF, AJX, BJ Wholesale Club Loans); 

2) Positive on DAL: Shares are inexpensive for a carrier seeking to post double-digit earnings growth in coming years, and could rise by 35% in the next year or two; 

3) Positive on VOYA: The company’s disappointing numbers mask the fact its core retirement and investment business is growing, and that management is taking steps to reduce risk. 

Tech Trader: Positive on FNSR, LITE, IIVI, VIAV: Companies are among those that stand to benefit from the next version of AAPL’s iPhone, which is expected to include new technology such as augmented reality. 

Trader: One stock, especially a high-priced one, can have an outsized impact on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, meaning it isn’t really a valid reflection of the market; Positive on SO: Shares haven’t done well this year, but the company’s nuclear reactor projects could make it a good bet for investors willing to take on more risk following the Westinghouse bankruptcy; The energy sector faces problems, but certain stocks should do well for investors despite industry turmoil (Positive on SU, CVX, CNQ, HCLP). 

Profile: Todd Beiley, co-manager of the Virtus KAR Small-Cap Growth fund, seeks companies with durable businesses and significant competitive barriers (top 10 holdings: OLLI, ATHM, FOXF, IBKR, Heico, ODFL, MELI, Natonal Research, ABAX, CPRT). 

Follow-Up: Cautious on TSLA: The company’s cars may be good investments, but investors should be wary of the shares, “which have outrun most analysts’ reasoned cases for buying.” 

European Trader: San Diego-based Brandes Investment Partners consider Brexit fears overdone, and are investing in British retailers and property-services companies (Positive on TSCO, SBRY, MRW, MKS, DEB, KGF, LSL CWD). 

Asian Trader: London-based, Asia-focused banks Standard Chartered and HSBC pose different opportunities for investors, but the latter’s immediate prospects look better, and its business is more profitable. 

Emerging Markets: Individual investors are increasingly moving into bonds that emerging markets issue in their own currencies, which offer strong yields but come with risk because of the dollar’s volatility. 

Commodities: Copper is enjoying its biggest rally in months amid growing global confidence and a weaker U.S. dollar, but some investors suggest waiting to see if the optimism is justified. 

Streetwise: Mike O’Rourke of Jones Trading says that “Failing to recognize the structural shift in the U.S. economy at the turn of the century, the Fed has been mistakenly chasing 20th century 3.5% GDP growth in a 2% GDP growth economy.”

Dollar Weakens Again, Then Reverses After Strong Jobs Report; Earnings Remain Solid

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update:  Dollar Weakens Again, Then Reverses After Strong Jobs Report; Earnings Remain Solid
Fri, 04 Aug 2017 16:03 PM EST

The Dow and the S&P spent much of the week chopping wood at or just below all-time highs, while -- similar to July’s action -- the Transports, Russel 2000 and Nasdaq languish behind. Earnings season made the turn and the back nine revealed similar corporate themes to what has been seen prior. More firms have been beating top line growth expectations, and managements remain upbeat on second half growth even if it is becoming more difficult to squeeze out further margin improvement.

The greenback also served as a tailwind with the Dollar Index falling to fresh 14-month lows led by broad strength in the Euro. Rates dipped led by Treasury yields as the data continued fall in line with a goldilocks scenario: Strong enough growth to support a healthy employment market and rising equity valuations, but benign enough inflation readings allow central banks remain on extremely gradual paths toward normalizing policy. Similar to last week’s ECB policy statement, the BOE announcement on Thursday surprised markets to some degree by revealing an unwillingness of a majority of policy makers to change course yet on rates. Friday’s stronger than expected July US jobs print did little to change the overall narrative but it did produce a bounce in the greenback. Gold prices came off $1,275 while crude oil prices have consolidated the recent run up to $50. For the week the DJIA gained 1.2%, the S&P500 added 0.2%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.4%.

In corporate news this week, Yelp and Grubhub shares surged after announcing a new tie-up that would see Grubhub acquire the Eat24 business and see Yelp integrate online ordering onto its platform. Discovery confirmed it would acquire Scripps for $14.6B in cash and stock to form a television content behemoth that would potentially control 20% of the ad-supported pay TV audience in the US. Apple shares ran up on a top and bottom line earnings beat that noted strong service revenue growth ahead of the iPhone 8 launch. Tesla charged up 6% post earnings and after CEO Elon Musk commented that there is no doubt they will reach 10K/units week production goals by the end of next year. Sprint shares rallied on raised guidance and renewed M&A hopes. And auto makers moved lower on weaker than expected July sales reports.

SUNDAY 7/30
(CN) CHINA JULY MANUFACTURING PMI (Govt Official): 51.4 V 51.5E (12th month of expansion)

MONDAY 7/31
HEIA.NL Reports H1 Net €1.04B v €1.03Be, Op €1.81B v €1.76Be, Rev €10.5B v €10.5Be
SAN.FR Reports Q2 Business EPS €1.35 v €1.31e, Business Net €1.70B v €1.55B y/y, Rev €8.66B v €8.14B y/y
(EU) EURO ZONE JULY ADVANCE CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: 1.3% V 1.3%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 1.2% V 1.1%E
(EU) EURO ZONE JUN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 9.1% V 9.2%E (lowest level since 2009)
(EU) EU Commission said to consider measures in draft policy proposal dated July 10th which would allow banks to temporarily stop withdrawals to prevent bank runs - financial press (UPDATE)
SNI To be acquired by Discovery Comms for $90/shr valued at $14.6B, inline w speculation last week(s)
(US) JULY CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER: 58.9 V 60.0E
(US) JUN PENDING HOME SALES M/M: 1.5% V 1.0%E; Y/Y: 0.7% V 0.5% PRIOR
(US) Fed Q2 senior loan officer survey: demand for commercial and industrial loans weakened in Q2, demand for residential real estate loans grew in Q2
(US) President Trump reportedly removes Anthony Scaramucci from Communications Director position at the request of new White House Chief of Staff Kelly - press

TUESDAY 8/1
(AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) LEAVES CASH RATE TARGET UNCHANGED AT 1.50%; AS EXPECTED
(HK) Macau July Gaming Rev MOP23.0B v MOP19.99B prior; 29.2% y/y v 22.8%e
(IN) INDIA JULY MANUFACTURING PMI: 47.9 V 50.9 PRIOR 1st contraction in 7 months and (lowest since Feb 2009)
BP.UK Reports Q2 Net $144M v -$1.42B y/y, Underlying replacement cost profit $684M v $518Me, Total Rev $57.4B v $47.3B y/y
(DE) GERMANY JULY NET UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -9K V -5KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 5.7% V 5.7%E
(DE) GERMANY JULY FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI: 58.1 V 58.3E (confirms 32nd month of expansion)
(UK) PMI JULY PMI MANUFACTURING: 55.1 V 54.5E (12th month of expansion)
(EU) EURO ZONE Q2 ADVANCE GDP Q/Q: 0.6% V 0.6%E; Y/Y: 2.1% V 2.1%E
(US) JUN PERSONAL INCOME: 0.0% V 0.4%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: 0.1% V 0.1%E
(US) JUN PCE CORE M/M: 0.1% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 1.5% V 1.4%E
(US) JUN PCE DEFLATOR M/M: 0.0% V 0.0%E; Y/Y: 1.4% V 1.3%E
(US) S&P announces companies with multiple share classes will no longer be able to join S&P 500 index; existing constituents will be able to remain - press
GM Reports July US sales -15% y/y, 226.1K units v 238.5Ke; Expect H2 to be stronger than H1
AAPL Reports Q3 $1.67 v $1.57e, Rev $45.4B v $44.7Be
(HK) Hong Kong Chief Exec Lam: H1 property prices +9.3% y/y; to set up panel to discuss land supply

WEDNESDAY 8/2
GLE.FR Reports Q2 Net €1.06B v €1.06Be, Op €1.52B v €2.4B y/y, Adj Rev €5.20B v €5.50Be; to take additional €300M charge for disputes
BA.UK Reports H1 Underlying EPS 19.8p v 19.1pe, EBITA £945M v £849M y/y, Rev £9.57B v £8.71B y/y
RIO.UK Reports H1 Underlying profit $3.94B v $4.26Be, underlying EBITDA $9.04B v $5.37B y/y, Rev $19.3B v $15.5B y/y; Announces additional $1.0B share buyback; Raises dividend 144% to $1.10
STAN.UK Reports H1 adj pretax profit $1.92B v $1.81Be, op income $7.2B v $7.23Be; Declares no dividend
(IN) INDIA CENTRAL BANK (RBI) CUTS REPURCHASE RATE BY 25BPS TO 6.00%; AS EXPECTED
(US) JULY ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +178K V +190KE
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending July 29th: 550.4K carloads and intermodal units, +2.5% y/y (29th straight week of gains)
(RU) Russia PM Medvedev: Trump signing new sanctions was tantamount to full-scale trade war; means an end to hopes for better ties with Trump administration
TSLA Reports Q2 -$1.33 v -$1.94e, Rev $2.79B v $2.55Be
(AU) AUSTRALIA JUN TRADE BALANCE (AUD): 856M V 1.8BE (8TH CONSECUTIVE SURPLUS)

THURSDAY 8/3
ACA.FR Reports Q2 Net €1.35B v €1.02Be; Rev €4.71B v €4.74B y/y
DTE.DE Reports Q2 adj Net €1.20B v €1.25Be, adj EBITA €5.94B v €5.81Be, Rev €18.9B v €18.7Be
SIE.DE Reports Q3 net profit €1.46B v €1.36Be, industrial business profit €2.25B v €2.33Be, Rev €21.4B v €21.8Be; Extends CEO Joe Kaeser contract to 2021
BMW.DE Reports Q2 Net €2.21B v €1.95B y/y, EBIT €2.93B v €2.81Be, Rev €25.8B v €25.9Be
(UK) BANK OF ENGLAND (BOE) QUARTERLY INFLATION REPORT (QIR)
(UK) BANK OF ENGLAND (BOE) LEAVES INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED AT 0.25%; AS EXPECTED
(UK) BOE AUG MINUTES: VOTED 6-2 TO LEAVE INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED AT 0.25% (McCafferty and Saunders dissent)
(CZ) CZECH CENTRAL BANK (CNB) RAISES 2-WEEK REPURCHASE RATE BY 20BPS TO 0.25%; AS EXPECTED (1st rate hike since 2008)
TEVA CFO: expect generics drug price erosion to accelerate through rest of FY17 (expect high single digits) - earnings call comments
FDX Announces holiday season surcharge for oversized shipments (follows UPS surcharge)
(US) JULY FINAL MARKIT SERVICES PMI: 54.7 V 54.2E (Highest since Jan)
(US) JUN FINAL DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: 6.4% V 0.0%E; DURABLES EX TRANSPORTATION: 0.1% V 0.2% PRELIM
(US) SHRM Jul New-Hire Compensation Index (Services): 25.6% v 23.6% y/y (all time high)
(US) Atlanta Fed initial Q3 GDP estimate 4.0%
(AU) RBA QUARTERLY STATEMENT ON MONETARY POLICY: REITERATES RECENT AUD (A$) RISE HAD MODEST EFFECT ON GDP FORECASTS
YELP Grubhub to acquire Yelp's Eat24 business for $287.5M in cash; Yelp to integrate online ordering from all Grubhub restaurants

FRIDAY 8/4
RBS.UK Reports Q2 Net £680M v -£1.08B y/y, adj Op £1.69B v £1.04Be, Rev £3,71B v £3.00B y/y; Affirms will not make profit in FY17
FAST Reports July Net Sales $350.0M +12.9% y/y*
(US) JULY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.3% V 4.3%E
(US) JULY AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M: 0.3% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 2.5% V 2.4%E; AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS: 34.5 V 34.5E
(CA) CANADA JULY NET CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT: +10.9K V +12.5KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 6.3% V 6.5%E
(US) JUN TRADE BALANCE: -$43.6 V -$44.5BE
(US) JULY CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: +209K V +180KE
(US) Atlanta Fed cuts Q3 GDP to 3.7% from 4.0% on 8/3
(US) Weekly Baker Hughes US Rig Count: 954 v 958 w/w (-0.4% w/w)

Barrons weekend update

Barrons weekend update: positive on Citigroup, AAP, HON; cautious on TWTR 

Cover story: The robo-advisory business is maturing, and it’s hard to underestimate the impact upstarts such as Betterment have had on wealth management; Firms such as SCHW, Fidelity, Merrill Lynch, AMTD, ETFC, GS, JPM, and MS are either already in the game or planning to get in. 

Features: 

1) Positive on C: Shares could rise by 50 percent, because the bank “offers the combination of a low valuation and what could be the highest earnings growth rate among its peers in the years to come”; 

2) Positive on HON: Under new chief executive Darius Adamczyk, shares could return 15% during the next year, backed by a rising P/E ratio and the industrial giant’s big bet on software; 

3) Positive on AAP: Shares of the auto-parts retailer are down on fears AMZN may disrupt the sector, but the stock’s valuation already takes into account bad news, and ignores the potential for a boost in profit margins and earnings; 

4) Cautious on TWTR: Shares are nearly as expensive as those of FB, where revenue and profit are growing, meaning Twitter must improve its situation, be acquired, or suffer further stock declines—the most likely outcome. 

Tech Trader: Cautious on GOOGL, AMZN: Alphabet has failed to diversity its business away from advertising, while Amazon faces political pressure over its dire effect on Main Street commerce; Investors should “take a breather on both these stocks despite the companies’ phenomenal achievements.” 

Trader: June payroll data and AAPL’s earnings could shake up the market, though Ian Winer of Wedbush Securities says it “appears bulletproof”; Positive on UTX, LII, MMM, IR, BA, DE: The economic environment remains conducive for industrials, says Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research, and the sector could continue to rally this year; Investors should be wary of merger deals made by companies under intense pressure to make structural changes to their businesses, some of which come with high price tags.

 ETF Special Report: Choosing between active and passive funds doesn’t have to be an an all-or-nothing decision; certain funds are the best option for certain asset classes—bonds, for example, are best handled by an actively managed fund. 

Follow-Up: Positive on FB: Though the social site may soon struggle to keep growing its ad-based business, likely by stealing business from AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT, and AMZN, shares could rise to $200 in a year, a 16% gain. 

European Trader: Cautious on Ryanair: Carrier has done well for its investors, but as it sheds some of its no-frills elements, it could face growing pains as it pushes to reach 200M passengers, leading to a drop in share price. 

Asian Trader: Reliance Industries’ launch of the low-price JioPhone will be a loss leader, but gives the company a foothold in a key sector in what will eventually be the world’s second-biggest economy. 

Emerging Markets: “Emboldened after the failed coup one year ago and a referendum giving the president sweeping power this spring, Turkey’s government is drifting from democracy,” damping the economy. 

Commodities: The natural-gas rally is slowing down, and the bull case rests on the fact the market has been undersupplied this year. 

Streetwise: Story digs into three key questions for investors: Are crude-oil prices finally turning up? Are regulators breathing down the neck of big tech companies? Will the global arms race peak?

Earnings Season Shakes Up Big Tech; Data Strengthens Euro

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update:  Earnings Season Shakes Up Big Tech; Data Strengthens Euro
Fri, 28 Jul 2017 16:10 PM EST

Despite an extremely eventful week of news flow, the S&P finished largely flat, with volatility retrenching to the lowest levels in more than two decades before bouncing. Outside of latest failure on healthcare reform in Washington DC, most of the fireworks occurred in the NASDAQ, which remained prone to market moving swings emanating out from the mega-cap ‘FANG’ names. Q2 earnings season hit its high watermark on Thursday with a deluge of European and US corporate reports. European economic data continued to largely overshadow that of the US, and combined with a perceived relatively dovish FOMC statement, both perpetuated an emerging narrative that the ECB will look to play catch-up by joining the Fed in commencing and exit from QE in the second half. To that end, the Dollar index dropped to the lowest level since April 2016, with the Euro briefly trading above the 2015 high. Rates moved up on a global basis, helped by an early move into risk assets after the IMF raised its China growth outlook on Sunday. Copper broke out to the best levels since early 2015. Oil prices pressed higher, helped by continued drawdowns in stockpiles, with Brent gaining a foothold above $50 for the first time since late May. For the week the S&P500 was about flat, the DJIA added 1.2%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.2%.

In corporate news, as earnings season shifted into top gear, a few of the high-flying names sold off on decent earnings, having been seemingly priced to perfection. Investors in tech took profits off the table this week despite strong earnings reports from Alphabet and Facebook. Twitter plunged after reporting flat monthly active user growth, while Amazon was hit by a big earnings miss. Roughly three-quarters of earnings reports beat on the top line, which is higher than normal, but this occurred amid disturbing macro trends continuing to eat away at many brick-and-mortar companies. A notable example was Starbucks, which saw its shares drop 10% after earnings. In addition to issuing cautious financial guidance, Starbucks reported slowing growth in membership for its rewards card program and announced it would close all of its nearly 400 Teavana retail stores. Meanwhile, cigarette makers got rolled on Friday as the FDA announced plans for a ‘dialogue’ about lowering nicotine to non-addictive levelsin tobacco products.On the M&A front, Michael Kors announced it would acquire accessory fashion house Jimmy Choo for nearly $1.2B, and Scripps reportedly came to agreement with Discovery on an offer to be acquired for at least $90/share, mostly in cash.


SUNDAY 7/23
(HK) Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) said to have checked property developers' loans
IMF updates its World Economic Outlook (WEO): Maintains both 2017 and 2018 global GDP growth forecasts

MONDAY 7/24
*(FR) FRANCE JULY PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 55.4 V 54.6E (9th month of expansion and highest since Apr 2011)
*(DE) GERMANY JULY PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 58.3 V 59.2E (32nd month of expansion)
*(EU) EURO ZONE JULY PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 56.8 V 57.2E (48th month of expansion)
(US) JULY PRELIMINARY MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 53.2 V 52.3E (highest since March)
(US) JUN EXISTING HOME SALES: 5.52M V 5.57ME
GOOGL Reports Q2 $8.90* v $8.15e, Rev $26.0B* (includes $5.09B in TAC) v $25.6Be
000660.KR Reports Q2 (KRW) Net 2.47T v 2.32Te; Op 3.05T v 2.93Te; Rev 6.69T v 6.82Te

TUESDAY 7/25
(FR) FRANCE JULY BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 108 V 106E; MANUFACTURING CONFIDENCE: 109 V 108E
(DE) GERMANY JULY IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE: 116.0 V 114.9E (post-German reunification high); CURRENT ASSESSMENT: 125.4 V 123.8E
(UK) JULY CBI INDUSTRIAL TRENDS TOTAL ORDERS: 10 V 12E
C Targets 2020 EPS CAGR 15-20%, Rev CAGR 3%+/-, ROTCE ~11%; ROTCE ex-DTA around 13% - comments ahead of analyst day
GM Reports Q2 $1.89 v $1.72e, Net Rev $37.0B v $37.4B y/y
CAT Reports Q2 $1.49 v $1.26e, Rev $11.3B v $10.9Be
GM Exec: Will cut Q3 and Q4 North America production by 150K vehicles compared to H1 - media call
FCX Reports Q2 $0.17 v $0.20e, Rev $3.71B v $3.68Be
C CEO: Believe have crossed inflection point on path to growth and stronger returns - analyst day
(US) JULY RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: 14 V 7E
*(US) JULY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 121.1 V 116.5E
(US) Senate has sufficient votes to approve motion to proceed on GOP healthcare legislation
TXN Reports Q2 $1.03 v $0.95e, Rev $3.69B v $3.55Be
(US) Pres Trump: steel dumping measures are coming 'fairly soon'; steel tariffs may be waiting until we finish up health care, taxes and infrastructure - financial press interview (update)
(AU) AUSTRALIA Q2 CONSUMER PRICES (CPI) Q/Q: 0.2% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 1.9% V 2.2%E; TRIMMED MEAN Q/Q: 0.5% V 0.5%E ; Y/Y: 1.8% V 1.8%E

WEDNESDAY 7/26
PTR Guides H1 (CNY) Net 9-11B v 528M y/y
(UK) Q2 ADVANCE GDP Q/Q: 0.3% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 1.7% V 1.7%E
F Reports Q2 $0.56 v $0.44e, Rev $39.9B v $37.9Be
*(US) JUN NEW HOME SALES: 610K V 615KE
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending July 22nd: 534.2K carloads and intermodal units, +1.1% y/y (28th straight week of gains)
*(US) FOMC HOLDS TARGET RATE RANGE AT 1.00-1.25%, AS EXPECTED; BALANCE SHEET UNWIND TO START 'RELATIVELY SOON'
FB Reports Q2 $1.32 v $1.14e, Rev $9.32B v $9.17Be
*(BR) BRAZIL CENTRAL BANK (BCB) CUTS SELIC TARGET RATE BY 100BPS TO 9.25%; AS EXPECTED
005930.KR Reports final Q2 (KRW) Net 10.8T v 9.8Te; Op 14.07T v 14.0T prelim; Rev 61.0T v 60.0T prelim; to buy back KRW1.67T of shares

THURS 7/27
ROG.CH Reports 1H (CHF) Net 5.58B v 5.47B y/y; Core Op 10.1B v 9.86Be, Rev 26.3B v 26.1Be
BAS.DE Reports Q2 EPS €1.63 v €1.19 y/y, EBIT (before items) €2.25B v €2.20Be, Rev €16.3B v €16.3Be
NOK1V.FI Reports Q2 adj Net €441M v €171M y/y, adj Op €574M v €460Me, Rev €5.63B v €5.62Be
MT.NL Reports Q2 Net $1.32B v $1.11B y/y, EBITDA $2.11B v $2.20Be, R$17.2B v $16.9Be
ABI.BE Reports Q2 $0.95 adj v $1.14e, EBITDA $5.35B v $5.28Be, R$14.2B v $14.5Be
AIR.FR Reports Q2 EPS €1.16 v €0.76e; Adj EBIT €859M v €878Me, Rev €15.72B v €15.99Be
ORA.FR Reports Q2 EBITDA €3.38B v €3.3Be, Rev €10.21B v €10.1Be
BAYN.DE Reports Q2 Net €1.22B (adj) v €1.38B y/y, EBITDA adj €3.06B v €2.99Be, Rev €12.2B v €12.6Be
BN.FR Reports H1 Net €1.05B v €935M y/y, Op Profit €1.72B v €1.48B y/y, Rev €12.13B v €11.1B y/y
SU.FR Reports H1 adj EBITA €1.72B v €1.67Be; Rev €12.17B v €12.2Be
(DE) AUG GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 10.8 V 10.6E (highest since Oct 2001)
RDSA.NL Reports Q2 adj Profit $3.71B v $3.36Be, basic CCS EPS $0.44 v $0.40e, Rev $72.1B v $58.4B y/y
AZN.UK Reports Q2 Core EPS $ 0.87 v $0.80e, Rev $5.05B v $5.00Be
LLOY.UK Reports Q2 PBT £2.41B v £1.98Be, Underlying profit £4.9B v £4.16B y/y, Total Income £9.30B v £8.87B y/y
DGE.UK Reports FY17 EPS 108.5p v 89.4p y/y, EBIT £3.60B v £3.60Be, Rev £12.1B v £11.96Be; Approves £1.5B sharebuyback; Raises final dividend 5% to 62.2p/shr
(EU) EURO ZONE JUN M3 MONEY SUPPLY Y/Y:5.0 % V 5.0%E
POT Reports Q2 $0.16 adj* v $0.17e, Rev $1.12B v $936Me
DOW Reports Q2 $1.08 v $1.01e, Rev $13.8B v $13.7Be
*(TR) TURKEY CENTRAL BANK (CBRT) LEAVES BENCHMARK REPURCHASE UNCHANGED AT 8.00%; AS EXPECTED
TWTR Reports Q2 $0.08 v $0.05e, Rev $573.9M v $537Me
UPS Reports Q2 $1.58 v $1.47e, Rev $15.8.B v $15.5Be
(UK) BOE names David Ramsden as Dep Gov for Markets and Banking
NESN.CH Exec:Seeing week consumer environment in NA and Europe - analyst call
*(US) JUN PRELIMINARY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: 6.5% V 3.7%E; DURABLES EX TRANSPORTATION: 0.2% V 0.4%E
NYT Reports Q2 $0.18 v $0.13e, Rev $407.1M v $394Me
(US) Atlanta Fed raises Q2 GDP to 2.8% from 2.5% on 7/19
AMZN Reports Q2 $0.40 v $1.40e, Rev $38.0B v $37.2Be
BIDU Reports Q2 $2.36 adj v $1.42e, Rev $3.08B v $2.78Be
SBUX Cuts FY17 $2.05-2.06 adj v $2.10e, Rev to low end of 8-10% y/y, implies low end of R$23-23.4B v $22.7Be (prior 2.08-2.12, Rev +8-10%) - earnings call
(US) US House Speaker Ryan: Prepared to go to conference on healthcare bill; Senate must vote first on any conference agreement produced
(CN) China banks said to be increasing rates on mortgages - Economic Information Daily

FRI 7/28
(US) Senate votes on amendment to healthcare bill; lacks vote on Skinny repeal plan - financial press
BNP.FR Reports Q2 Net €2.4B v €1.91Be, Rev €10.9B v €11.3B y/y
*(FR) FRANCE Q2 ADVANCE GDP Q/Q: 0.5% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 1.8% V 1.6%E
BARC.UK Reports Q2 adj net £354M v £803M y/y, adj pretax £1.4B* v £1.2Be, Core Net rev £5.1B v £5.23Be
(FR) FRANCE JULY PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: -0.3% V -0.4%E; Y/Y: 0.7% V 0.7%E
(DE) GERMANY JULY CPI SAXONY M/M: 0.3% V 0.2% PRIOR; Y/Y: 1.7% V 1.7% PRIOR
(DE) GERMANY JULY CPI NORTH RHINE WESTPHALIA M/M: 0.4% V 0.1% PRIOR; Y/Y: 1.8% V 1.6% PRIOR
*(EU) EURO ZONE JULY BUSINESS CLIMATE INDICATOR: 1.05 V 1.14E; CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: -1.7 V -1.7E
(DE) GERMANY JULY PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.4% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 1.7% V 1.5%E
(RU) RUSSIA CENTRAL BANK (CBR) LEAVES 1-WEEK AUCTION RATE UNCHANGED AT 9.00%; AS EXPECTED
MRK Reports Q2 $1.01 v $0.87e, Rev $9.93B v $9.79Be; Cyber attack from June still impacting operations
*(US) Q2 EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX (ECI): 0.5% V 0.6%E
(US) Q2 ADVANCE GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: 2.6% V 2.7%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 2.8% V 2.8%E
*(US) Q2 ADVANCE GDP PRICE INDEX: 1.0% V 1.3%E; CORE PCE Q/Q: 0.9% V 0.7%E
(US) FDA plans to begin dialogue about lowering nicotine levels in combustible cigarettes to non-addictive levels; new enforcements to also affect newly-regulated tobacco products such as cigars and e-cigarettes
*(US) JULY FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 93.4 V 93.2E
(US) New York Fed Nowcast: raises Q2 GDP forecast to 2.1% from 2.0% on 7/21; cuts Q3 GDP forecast to 1.9% from 2.0% on 7/21
(US) Weekly Baker Hughes US Rig Count: 958 v 950 w/w (+0.8% w/w)
(KR) US military spokesman: Joint Chiefs and head of Pacific Command spoke to South Korean counterparts, discussed military response optionsto North Korea ICBM test