Barrons weekend summary

Barrons weekend summary: positive on AMZN, NVS, TJX, ROST, BURL, GM, Ford 

Cover story: Barron's list of the best ETFs for income was chosen by Michael Arone of State Street Global Advisors (IEF, CWB, SRLN, ITE, FCVT), Jay Hatfield of Infrastructure Capital Management (PFF, SDY, AMLP, AMZA, PFFR), Putri Pascualy of Paamco (EMB, BKLN, SJNK, SHYG), and Fran Rodilosso of VanEck (FLOT, EMLC, FLRN, FLTR). 

Features: 

1) Positive on AMZN: Shares could reach $1,000 by summer and $1,100 within a year, for a gain of close to 20%; By the end of the decade, the company's profits will balloon as revenues overwhelm costs and investments; 

2) Positive on TJX, ROST, BURL: Companies have managed to avoid being trounced by AMZN because they are in the off-price clothing business, and they stock stores opportunistically; 

3) Positive on NVS: "After a period of weak financial performance, Novartis could be poised for a multiyear run of earnings gains starting in 2018," driven by new drugs and a promising pipeline; 

4) Positive on GM, F: Shares are among the cheapest on a price/earnings basis in the S&P 500, but their valuations could rise in a turnaround, while TSLA's may drop if its Model 3 doesn't live up to expectations. 

Tech Trader: With AAPL, Wall Street is betting on momentum heading toward the next iPhone release, part of trend in which investors focus on a theme or narrative instead of how well the business is doing. 

Trader: Jason Pride of Glenmede says the final healthcare bill won't likely resemble what came out of the House, which passed by only the narrowest of margins; The stock buyback trend seems to be slowing, with $146B from S&P 500 companies through April 27, down 15% from the same period a year ago; Positive on REGN: Two issues face the company's investors: its valuation is high, and and it has been trading in a range for much of the year. 

Profile: Andy Johnson, manager of the Neuberger Berman Strategic Income fund, looks for stable income in a low-yield environment (top 10 sectors: mortgage-backed securities, U.S. investment grade credit, U.S. high yield, non-agency RMBS, U.S. nominal Treasury, U.S. TIPS, bank loans, global Treasuries, emerging market). 

Small Caps: Positive on OCFC: In a sector that offers less value than in the past, OceanFirst is worth considering because of an attractive, low-cost deposit base, modest credit costs, and good profitability. 

Follow-Up: Positive on MHK: Shares of world's largest flooring company are down following second-quarter results, a pullback that offers a fresh opportunity to buy. 

European Trader: Large integrated oil majors such as BP, Royal Dutch Shell, and Statoil have had a tough few years, but strong Q1 results are a sign cost-cutting and streamlining efforts are bearing fruit. 

Asian Trader: The upcoming presidential election in South Korea could boost inexpensive stocks, based on the winner's policies toward China, North Korea, and local chaebols. 

Emerging Markets: Greece's recent deal with the IMF for debt relief suggest it could be time for investors to consider the country's equities again. 

Commodities: "A cocoa glut has driven prices down near the lowest levels in 10 years, but analysts think prices need to weaken further to win back chocolate lovers." 

Streetwise: Stephanie Pomboy of MacroMavens thinks it's remarkable that AMZN is moving into the grocery business, since groceries as a percentage of retail sales are declining-has Jeff Bezos "run out of frontiers to conquer, or is it a hedge against what's to come?" 

Despite commodity softness stocks hold at lofty levels heading into the French election

TradeTheNews.com  Weekly Market Update:  Despite commodity softness stocks hold at lofty levels heading into the French election

Fri, 05 May 2017 16:12 PM EST

The week opened on a sleepy note, with many markets outside the US closed for the Mayday holiday. Washington DC stayed on the front lines, as White House administration officials continued to push the President's agenda. Congress came together and reached a tentative deal on a $1.1T omnibus spending bill to fund the govt through Sept 30th. By Thursday, House Republicans finally pushed through its bill repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act as had been promised repeatedly during the election. European politics also may have aided sentiment after the final French presidential debate ahead of Sunday's runoff appeared to solidify the prospects for an Emmanual Macron victory.

The US economic data generally came in a bit softer than expected and lagged that of what we saw of out of Europe and Asia. The Euro moved up to a 5-month high, while the Dollar gained ground against the Yen, reaching a 1-month high. Wednesday's FOMC statement and Friday's jobs report largely affirmed the notion the Fed can and will stay on a path of gradually raising interest rates. Futures markets have continued to price in two more hikes this year, most likely starting in June. A chorus of Fed officials vocalized that same belief in speeches on Friday, as well. Assuming the French election goes as planned, ECB officials also hinted that they could steer the market towards their plans to withdraw stimulus in the near future. Treasury yields drifted higher following Wednesday's FOMC statement.

Commodities saw a wave of selling throughout much of the week that temporarily spooked equity markets. WTI crude prices dropped below the Nov low of $45.90 Wednesday to trade at levels not seen since last summer. The selling was exacerbated by technical levels but largely attributed to lingering concerns about steadily increasing NA supply and lackluster demand growth. Cooper, iron ore, and aluminum also declined, hurt by reports that the Chinese continue to crack down on a host of financing vehicles. Prices appeared to have stabilized late in the week, potentially helped by readthroughs from Q1 earnings season. A third of the S&P reported this week and executives from across an array of sectors talked confidently about growth they were seeing across both business lines and geographies. Many even talked about their belief that they can raise prices to offset input costs and painted an even more encouraging picture than the economic data has shown. For the week the Dow added 0.3%, S&P gained 0.6% and the NASDAQ rose 0.9%.

In corporate news this week, Apple shares were hit after disclosing some iPhone sales softness in its quarterly results, but the tech giant pared its losses as the market digested CEO Cook’s defense that it is likely just a pause in purchases while customers gear up to buy the new phone launching this fall. Tesla reported its revenue doubled y/y on record deliveries, but posted a larger loss than anticipated, and the automaker expressed some worry that the cheaper Model 3 model may be eating into sales of the pricier Model S. Facebook beat on the top and bottom line as its ad revenue jumped 51% y/y, and the social media behemoth told investors it will use GAAP figures instead of non-GAAP from now on so that it can include stock-based compensation in its calculations.

SUNDAY 4/30
04/30 (US) Congress negotiators from both parties said to have reached a tentative deal on $1.1T omnibus spending bill to fund the govt through Sept 30th - financial press

MONDAY 5/1
(HK) Macau Apr Gaming Rev MOP20.2B v MOP21.23B prior; +16.3% y/y v 14.0%e
05/01 *(US) MAR PCE DEFLATOR M/M: -0.2% V -0.2%E; Y/Y: 1.8% V 1.9%E
(US) MAR PERSONAL INCOME: 0.2% V 0.3%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: 0.0% V 0.2%E
*(US) MAR PCE CORE M/M: -0.1% V -0.1%E; Y/Y: 1.6% V 1.6%E
(US) APR FINAL MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 52.8 V 52.8E (lowest since Sept)
*(US) APR ISM MANUFACTURING: 54.8 V 56.5E; PRICES PAID: 68.5 V 67.5E
(US) Atlanta Fed forecasts initial Q2 GDP growth at 4.3%
*(CN) CHINA APR CAIXIN PMI MANUFACTURING: 50.3 V 51.3E; 7-month low; 10th straight month of expansion

TUESDAY 5/2
(AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) LEAVES CASH RATE TARGET UNCHANGED AT 1.50% (AS EXPECTED)
BP.UK Reports Q1 adj Net $1.45B v $1.21Be, Underlying replacement cost profit $1.51B v $0.5B y/y, Total Rev $56.4B v $53.5Be
*(DE) GERMANY APR FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI: 58.2 V 58.2E (confirms its 29th month of expansion)
*(UK) APR PMI MANUFACTURING: 57.3 V 54.0E (9th month of expansion and highest since Apr 2014)
(EU) EURO ZONE MAR UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 9.5% V 9.4%E (matches lowest level since 2009)
MRK Reports Q1 $0.88 v $0.83e, R$9.43B v $9.29Be
(CZ) Czech PM Sobotka: To submit government resignation to President and possible prepare for early election
(US) Pres Trump tweets: "Our country needs a good 'shutdown' in September to fix mess!"
AAPL Reports Q2 $2.10 v $2.02e, R$52.9B v $52.6Be; raises dividend 10.5% to $0.63 from $0.57 (indicated yield 1.71%); increases buyback program by $35B (4.4% of market cap) to $210B

WEDNESDAY 5/3
BNP.FR Reports Q1 Net €1.89B v €1.81B y/y, Rev €11.3B v €10.8B y/y
(UK) EU said to have raised Brexit bill to an upfront payment between €91-113B over 10 years would net to ~€55bn-€75B as Britain received share of EU spending and repaid loans - financial press
(DE) GERMANY APR UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -15K V -11KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 5.8% V 5.8%E
(EU) EURO ZONE Q1 ADVANCE GDP Q/Q: 0.5% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 1.7% V 1.7%E
(US) APR ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +177K V +175KE (lowest since Oct)
NYT Reports Q1 $0.11 v $0.06e, R$398.8M v $385Me; Digital subscribers surge
(US) APR FINAL MARKIT SERVICES PMI: 53.1 V 52.5E
(US) Puerto Rico Gov announces restructuring of $70B debt; to advance plan for bankruptcy-like case - press
(IR) Iran reportedly attempts missile launch from a mini submarine, 14 days prior to Sanctions trigger
(US) FOMC HOLDS TARGET RATE RANGE AT 0.75-1.00%, AS EXPECTED; GROWTH SLOWDOWN IN Q1 IS LIKELY TO BE TRANSITORY; EXPECTS ECONOMY TO WARRANT GRADUAL RATE HIKES
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending April 29th: 527.8K carloads and intermodal units, +5.1% y/y (16th straight week of gains)
TSLA Reports Q1 -$1.33 v -$0.55e, R$2.70B v $2.56Be
FB Reports Q1 $1.04 v $1.10e, R$8.03B v $7.85Be
(AU) AUSTRALIA MAR TRADE BALANCE (A$): +3.1B V +3.3BE (5th consecutive surplus)
(CN) CHINA APR CAIXIN PMI SERVICES: 51.5 V 52.2 PRIOR; 4th month of sequential decline and weakest level since May 2016

THURSDAY 5/4
HSBA.UK Reports Q1 Pretax profit (adj) $5.94B v $5.3Be, Underlying Rev $12.8B v $12.5B y/y
CARLB.DK Reports Q1 (DKK) Rev 13.7B v 13.4Be
SIE.DE Reports Q1 Net profit €1.45B v €1.44Be, Industrial Business profit €2.49B v €2.12Be, Rev €20.2B v €19.7Be
GLE.FR Reports Q1 Net €747M* v €863.2Me, Op €1.20B v €1.37B y/y, Rev €6.47B v €6.18Be
ABI.BE Reports Q1 $0.74 v $1.00e, EBITDA $4.49B v $4.90Be, R$12.9B v $12.9Be
BMW.DE Reports Q1 Net €2.15B v €1.64B y/y, EBIT €2.65B v €2.65B prelim, Rev €23.45B v €23.4B prelim; affirms forecast
RDSA.NL Reports Q1 adj Profit $3.75B v $3.01Be, Basic CCS EPS $0.41 v $0.13 y/y, R$71.8B v $64.8B y/y
*(NO) NORWAY CENTRAL BANK (NORGES) LEAVES DEPOSIT RATES UNCHANGED AT 0.50%; AS EXPECTED
USCR Reports Q1 $0.42 v $0.17e, R$299.1M v $282Me
FAST Reports Apr Net Sales $343.8M, +3.7% y/y
(CZ) CZECH CENTRAL BANK (CNB) LEAVES REPURCHASE RATE UNCHANGED AT 0.05%; AS EXPECTED
*(US) Q1 PRELIMINARY NONFARM PRODUCTIVITY: -0.6% V -0.1%E; LABOR COSTS: +3.0% V 2.7%E
(BR) Brazil Apr PMI Services: 50.3 v 47.7 prior (1st expansion in 26 months)
*(US) MAR FINAL DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: 0.9% V 0.7%E; DURABLES EX TRANSPORTATION: 0.0% V -0.2% PRELIM
WTI Crude breaks Nov low below $46.00 (lowest level since April 2016)
(US) Atlanta Fed cuts Q2 GDP to 4.2% from 4.3% on 5/1
(US) House of Representatives passes ACHA Obamacare healthcare replacement bill
IBM Buffett said to have sold 33% of IBM stake in Q1 and Q2, but has stopped selling shares - CNBC
(HK) HONG KONG APR COMPOSITE PMI: 51.1 V 49.9 PRIOR; 1st expansion in 4 months, 3-year high
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q2 INFLATION EXPECTATION SURVEY: 2-YEAR INFLATION EXPECTATION 2.17% (highest since Q3 of 2014) V 1.92% PRIOR

FRIDAY 5/5
(CZ) Czech PM Sobotka changes mind and will NOT submit his resignation (withdraws offer); proposes to dismiss his finance minister
(US) APR UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.4% V 4.6%E (lowest since May 2007)
(CA) CANADA APR NET CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT: 3.2K V +10.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 6.5% V 6.7%E
(US) APR CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: +211K V+190KE
(US) APR AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M: 0.3% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 2.5% V 2.7%E; AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS: 34.4 V 34.4E
(US) New York Fed Nowcast: cuts Q2 GDP forecast to 1.8% from 2.3% from 4/28

Barron's Saturday summary

Barron's Saturday summary: Positive CAT, NEE, COH; Cautious ESRX, CMG 

Cover story: Positive on CAT; Company has taken a hit from a drop in commodity prices and a number of ill-fated acquisitions, but is getting back on track; Few companies are likely to benefit as much as Caterpillar from Trump administration policies, and shares are likely to rebound. 

Tech Trader: Fiber-optic stocks rose during the dot-com bubble and have since imploded, but a new generation of them—including OCLR, ACIA, NPTN and LITE—stand to benefit from trends such as cloud computing, even though their shares are currently down. 

Trader: If the GOP can push a tax plan through, it will probably mean a further boost for corporate earnings, especially if the border-adjusted tax remains sidelined; Despite recent gains in tech stocks such as GOOGL, MSFT, and AMZN, their valuations don’t seem worrisome; Positive on COH: Shares are down amid slumping retail sales, but they’re set to reverse course because of the company’s strong brand and wide range of products. 

Profile: Philippe Langham of RBC Global Asset Management looks for companies around the world that can produce sustainable, long-term growth (top 10 holdings: Housing Development Finance, Samsung Electronics, Naspers, TWM, AIA Group, DRY, UL, Antofagasta, BBD, SM Investments). 

Interview: Paul Wick, manager of the Columbia Seligman Communications and Information fund, thinks tech stocks aren’t in a bubble and that fundamentals appear to be in excellent shape (picks: LRCX, MU, WDC; pans: IBM, NFLX, TSLA). 

Features: 

1) Donald Trump’s tax plan would likely benefit banks, restaurants, retailers, telecoms, and health insurers, industries that have a domestic focus; The plan includes good ideas, such as cutting corporate taxes, but could cost too much revenue; 

2) Positive on NEE: Even if the company fails to acquire Texas-based Oncor Electric, it remains well-positioned in the energy sector, with a balanced portfolio of stable and growing businesses and a strong dividend yield; 

3) Barron’s annual Big Money poll found that top money managers favor the tech and finance sectors, and more are bullish about the outlook for stocks than in the prior two polls; 

4) Large money managers “are upbeat about the global economy, and see U.S. economic growth accelerating modestly in coming months” amid higher interest rates and tax cuts. 

Follow Up: Cautious on ESRX: Shares of the pharmacy benefit manager will probably continue to drop because of ongoing problems related to ANTM and the growing strength of lower-cost rivals; Cautious on CMG: Shares of the food chain have risen, but it needs to keep spending on food safety and advertising to return to growth, and investors for now should stay away; Cautious on Home Capital: Even at C$8.00, the risk in the troubled company’s shares is to the downside, and they could eventually hit zero. 

European Trader: “Old-World markets rebounded last week as fears of a European Union breakup eased, and investors focused instead on the region’s generally improved economic outlook.” 

Asian Trader: The Hong Kong market is up 200% since the financial crisis, but amid the euphoria some experts think the good times are about to end. 

Emerging Markets: “Venezuela has about $10B left, mostly gold, to pay its debts as inflation mounts, imports dwindle, and basic supplies disappear from shelves.” 

Commodities Corner: Rice is set for a rally because of a combination of low levels of usable inventory and the light likelihood that poor growing conditions could cause futures prices to go up. 

Streetwise: Real estate stocks can serve as an inflation hedge and as an income source, especially if weak economic growth keeps interest rates lower for longer. 

French Election and Solid Earnings Restore Reflation Trade

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: French Election and Solid Earnings Restore Reflation Trade
Fri, 28 Apr 2017 16:08 PM EST

The week opened with a bang as markets breathed a sigh of relief that the polls accurately predicted Emmanuel Macron’s win in the first round of the French election, sparking a global scramble for risk assets. Global indices surged Monday and into Tuesday, Treasury yields moved up, and gold prices backed down from the $1,300 level. The VIX careened back down to briefly touch the lowest level since 2007 as traders unwound hedging trades from last week. The NASDAQ crossed above 6K for the first time ever, as the technology sector took center stage during earnings season, while other indices got back within striking distance of their all-time highs. For the week, the DJIA gained 1.9%, the S&P added 1.5%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.3%.

By Wednesday, focus shifted back to Washington DC, as speculation of a revived healthcare agreement picked up and the Trump administration unveiled an outline for its massive tax cut plans. But the winds coming from Washington were not entirely helpful to sentiment when the Trump administration repeatedly struck an aggressive posture on foreign trade, including setting tariffs on Canadian timber, initiating a trade investigation of the aluminum market, and a threat to withdraw from NAFTA. Equity trading leveled off into week's end, and Treasury yields made little headway to the upside.

In corporate news this week, tech names seemed to be the big winner on earnings boosted by the cloud. Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet all said that their cloud computing divisions were growing faster than their larger, mainline businesses, with Amazon notably making most of its profits from its AWS unit. Twitter reported a reassuring beat on its top and bottom line, as its user numbers spiked surprisingly, and the social media giant noted it’s seeing less abuse reported across the service. General Motors posted its highest profits since emerging from bankruptcy in 2009, thanks partly to an increase in North American sales, while Ford saw a 35% drop in profit due to the effects of recalls and rising material prices, and it warned about pricing falling for new and used cars. Caterpillar reported surprisingly strong results and raised guidance, but did caution that geopolitical and market uncertainty along with volatility in commodity prices continue to present risks for the rest of the year.

SUNDAY 4/23
BCR: BD to acquire Bard for $317.00/shr in cash and stock in a $24B deal

MONDAY 4/24
(DE) GERMANY APR IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE: 112.9 V 112.4E (highest since summer 2011); CURRENT ASSESSMENT: 121.1 V 119.2E
(UK) APR CBI INDUSTRIAL TRENDS TOTAL ORDERS: 4 V 6E
AA Reports Q1 $0.63 v $0.55e, R$2.7B v $2.97Be; Raises 17 demand outlook
(CA) US President Trump warns may put import tax on Canada dairy products - financial press
Hynix Semiconductor Reports Q1 Net KRW1.9T v KRW1.8Te; Op KRW2.5T v KRW2.4Te; Rev KRW6.3T v KRW6.0Te

TUESDAY 4/25
NOVN.CH Reports Q1 $1.13 v $1.10e, Core Op profit $3.01B v $3.26B y/y, R$11.54B v $11.6Be
SAP.DE Reports Q1 Non-IFRS Net €887M v €886Me, non-IFRS Op profit €1.20B v €1.23Be, Rev €5.29B v €5.18Be
(FR) FRANCE APR BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 104 V 104E; MANUFACTURING CONFIDENCE: 108 V 105E
LMT Reports Q1 $2.61 v $2.76e, R$11.1B v $11.3Be
CAT Reports Q1 $1.28 v $0.62e, R$9.8B v $9.36Be
FCX Reports Q1 $0.15 adj v $0.17e, R$3.34B v $3.52Be
(US) Apr Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing General Regional Business Conditions: 30.1 v 35.4 prior
(US) APR RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: 20 V 16E
(US) MAR NEW HOME SALES: 621K V 584KE
(US) APR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 120.3 V 122.5E
(US) Goldman Sachs chief economist Hatzius: not expecting US to reach 3% GDP growth in 2017 or 2018
TXN Reports Q1 $0.97 v $0.83e, R$3.40B v $3.30Be
(US) Trump administration drops support for border adjustment tax (BAT) on imports - NYT
BHP.AU Reports Q3 iron ore production 54.0Mt v 57.0Mte; Updates on US shale asset sale
(AU) AUSTRALIA Q1 CONSUMER PRICES (CPI) Q/Q: 0.5% V 0.6%E; Y/Y: 2.1% (highest since Q2 of 2014) V 2.2%E; TRIMMED MEAN Q/Q: 0.5% V 0.5%E ; Y/Y: 1.9% (5-quarter high) V 1.8%E

WEDNESDAY 4/26
SAN.ES Reports Q1 Net €1.87B v €1.73Be, Rev €12.0B v €11.1B q/q
CSGN.CH Reports Q1 Net CHF596M v CHF336.1Me, Pretax profit CHF889M v CHF648Me, Rev CHF5.5B v CHF5.39Be; Announces CHF4B rights offering, to retain full ownership of Swiss Bank
(FR) FRANCE APR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 100 V 100E
STAN.UK Reports Q1 Adj Pretax profit $1.05B v $850Me, Op Income $3.61B v $3.64Be
TWTR Reports Q1 $0.11 v $0.02e, R$548M v $512Me; DAU +14% y/y, +11% q/q
(TR) TURKEY CENTRAL BANK (CBRT) LEAVES BENCHMARK REPURCHASE RATE UNCHANGED AT 8.00%; AS EXPECTED
(US) Freedom Caucus says group is now in support of House Obamacare replacement bill following modifications - press
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending April 22nd: 515.1K carloads and intermodal units, +4.7% y/y (15th straight week of gains)
(US) White House econ adviser Cohn: look forward to working with House and Senate on tax proposal in weeks ahead; in agreement on the core principles
(US) White House: President Trump agrees to not terminate NAFTA at this time after conversations with Mexico's Nieto and Canada's Trudeau
(JP) BOJ LEAVES INTEREST RATE ON EXCESS RESERVES (IOER) UNCHANGED AT -0.10% AND 10-YEAR JGB YIELD TARGET AT AROUND 0.0%; AS EXPECTED

THURSDAY 4/27
AIR.FR Reports Q1 Adj EBIT €240M v €326Me, Rev €13.0B v €12.2B y/y
BAS.DE Reports Q1 EPS €1.97 v €1.81e, EBIT (before items) €2.46B v €2.38Be, Rev €16.9B v €15.7Be
ROG.CH Reports Q1 Rev CHF12.9B v CHF12.7Be
NOK1V.FI Reports Q1 adj Net €203M v €164Me, adj Op €341M v €329.5Me, Rev €5.39B v €5.28e
DBK.DE Reports Q1 Net €575M v €475Me, Pretax €878M v €579M y/y, Rev €7.34B v €8.07B y/y
BAYN.DE Reports Q1 Net profit €2.08B (adj) v €1.51M y/y, EBITDA adj €3.89B v €3.67Be, Rev €13.2B v €12.7Be; CFO Johannes Dietch to leave company effective end of May, 2018
ORA.FR Reports Q1 EBITDA €2.60B v €2.55B y/y, Rev €10.1B v €9.99B y/y
(DE) GERMANY APR GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 10.2 V 9.9E (matches highest level since Oct 2001)
RMS.FR Reports Q1 Rev €1.35B v €1.32Be
AZN.UK Reports Q1 Core EPS $0.99 v $0.82e, Rev $5.41B v $5.41Be
LLOY.UK Reports Q1 PBT £1.30B v £654M y/y, Underlying profit £2.08B v £1.96Be, Total Income £4.41B v £4.38B y/y
(DE) GERMANY APR CPI SAXONY M/M: -0.1% V +0.2% PRIOR; Y/Y: 2.1% V 1.8% PRIOR
(SE) SWEDEN CENTRAL BANK (RIKSBANK) LEAVES REPO RATE UNCHANGED AT -0.50%; AS EXPECTED
(SE) SWEDEN CENTRAL BANK (RIKSBANK) AMENDS QE BOND BUYING SCHEME; extends QE by SEK15B during H2 of 2017
(EU) EURO ZONE APR BUSINESS CLIMATE INDICATOR: 1.09 V 0.82E; CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (FINAL): -3.6 V -3.6E
(IT) ITALY DEBT AGENCY (TESORO) SELLS TOTAL €5.25B VS. €4.25-5.25B INDICATED RANGE IN 5-YEAR AND 10-YEAR BTP BONDS
POT Reports Q1 $0.18 v $0.10e, R$1.11B v $928Me
DOW Reports Q1 $1.04 v $0.99e, R$13.2B v $12.4Be
F Reports Q1 $0.39 v $0.34e, R$39.1B v $34.7Be
(EU) ECB LEAVES MAIN 7-DAY REFINANCING RATE UNCHANGED AT 0.00%; AS EXPECTED
UPS Reports Q1 $1.32 v $1.30e, R$15.3B v $15.2Be
(DE) GERMANY APR PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.0% V -0.1%E; Y/Y: 2.0% V 1.9%E
(US) MAR PRELIMINARY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: 0.7% V 1.3%E; DURABLES EX-TRANSPORTATION:-0.2 % V +0.4%E
(EU) ECB chief Draghi: Reiterates forward guidance that rates to stay low or lower for an extended period beyond the end of QE until ECB sees a sustain pick up in inflation - Prepared remarks
(EU) ECB chief Draghi: Things are going better but did not discuss any exit strategy at today's meeting- Q&A
(US) Atlanta Fed cuts Q1 GDP to 0.2% from 0.5% on 4/18
AMZN Reports Q1 $1.48 v $1.03e, R$35.7B v $35.4Be
GOOGL Reports Q1 $7.73 v $7.48e, R$24.8B (includes $4.6B TAC) v $19.7Be
INTC Reports Q1 $0.66 v $0.65e, R$14.8B v $14.8Be; approves $10B increase to buyback program (5.7% of market cap)
MSFT Reports Q3 $0.73 v $0.69e, R$22.1B v $23.6Be
BIDU Reports Q1 $1.00 v $0.85e, R$2.45B v $2.32Be; CFO to step down, effective on appointment of successor
(JP) JAPAN MAR JOBLESS RATE: 2.8% V 2.9%E (matches lowest rate since Jun 1994)
(US) President Trump: North Korea is my biggest worry; Would love to resolve situation diplomatically, but it's "very difficult" - press interview

FRIDAY 4/28
UBSN.CH Reports Q1 Net CHF1.27B v CHF953Me, Adj Pretax profit CHF1.93B v CHF1.37B y/y, Adj Op Rev CHF7.53B v CHF7.06B y/y
(FR) FRANCE Q1 ADVANCE GDP Q/Q: 0.3% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 0.8% V 0.9%E
SAN.FR Reports Q1 Business EPS €1.42 v €1.26e, Business Op €2.44B v €2.12B y/y, Rev €8.65B v €8.38Be
(UK) APR NATIONWIDE HOUSE PRICES M/M: -0.4% V +0.1%E; Y/Y: 2.6% V 3.3%E
RBS.UK Reports Q1 Net profit £259M v loss £968M y/y, adj Op £1.37B v £931M y/y, Rev £3.21B v £3.06B y/y
BARC.UK Reports Q1 Net £190M* v £433M y/y, adj Pretax £1.68B v £793M y/y, Core Net Rev £5.82B v £5.04B y/y
(FR) FRANCE APR PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.1% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 1.2% V 1.2%E
(EU) EURO ZONE MAR M3 MONEY SUPPLY Y/Y: 5.3% V 4.7%E
(UK) Q1 ADVANCE GDP Q/Q: 0.3% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 2.1% V 2.2%E
(EU) EURO ZONE APR ADVANCE CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: 1.9% V 1.8%E (returns to ECB target); CPI CORE Y/Y: 1.2% V 1.0%E (highest level since mid-2013)
GM Reports Q1 $1.70 v $1.45e, R$41.2B v $40.3Be
(US) Q1 EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX (ECI): 0.8% V 0.6%E
(US) Q1 ADVANCE GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: 0.7% V 1.0%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 0.3% V 0.9%E
(US) Q1 Advance GDP Price Index: 2.3% v 2.0%e; Core PCE Q/Q: 2.0% v 2.0%e
(US) APR CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER: 58.3 V 56.2E
(US) APR FINAL MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 97.0 V 98.0E
(US) New York Fed Nowcast: maintains Q1 GDP forecast at 2.7%, unchanged from 4/21; raises Q2 GDP forecast to 2.3% from 2.1% from 4/21

Barrons weekend summary

Barrons weekend summary: Positive on top US banks, JNJ, MGM, SRPT, SRG, ORLY; Cautious on ARNC, HOG, INFY 

Cover story: MORN has exerted an outsize influence on the mutual fund industry for 30 years, but under new chief executive Kunal Kapoor it will continue to undergo a transition with a move beyond data and research as passive investing grows more dominant. 

Tech Trader: Tiernan Ray talks about the growing trend among tech companies of delivering products in beta form, so that “the future is not delivered anymore so much as teased,” as with GOOGL’s Google Glass or FB’s recent announcement about augmented reality. 

Trader: The results of the French election could have a major effect on markets this week, says MS strategist Michael Wilson; Positive on JNJ: Company’s “revenue miss could be a buying opportunity now that its shares look more reasonably priced”; Positive on MGM: When the gaming giant reports earnings Thursday it won’t likely miss, and a drop in share price presents an opportunity for investors. 

Features: 

1) Positive on BAC, C, GS, JPM, MS, WFC: Six major banks trade at a discount to the S&P 500 after a selloff sparked by economic and political concerns, but their profit outlook is improving and the shares look like buys; 

2) Positive on SRPT: Shares should appeal to investors because there’s a good chance company’s Duchenne muscular dystrophy drug, Exondys 51, will ramp up this year, making Sarepta an acquisition target; 

3) Positive on SRG: The REIT spun off from SHLD is signing on new tenants who pay substantially more than shuttered Sears stores, and it offers the opportunity for significant long-term growth; 

4) Positive on ORLY: Shares are down on an earnings miss and concerns about a move into auto parts by AMZN, but the company should be able to get past its problems, and cheap shares are a good long-term bet. 

Profile: David Brown of Hawk Ridge Fund monitors companies carefully for catalysts, such as a change in regulation or a division with unseen promise (long: AAN, EHTH, RACE, FOGO, Opera Software; short: CVGW). 

Interview: Paul Hickey and Justin Walters of Bespoke talk about their ten years in business and what they think about the bull market (picks: SOM, TRVG, ZTS; pans: BURL, P). 

Follow-Up: Cautious on ARNC: The ouster of chief Klaus Kleinfeld and an upcoming proxy fight make shares of sister company AA a better bet for now; Cautious HOG: Iconic motorcycle maker faces declining ridership and an aging consumer base, making shares a risky bet despite their recent uptick. 

European Trader: France’s presidential election is the most important European vote in years, more critical than the Brexit referendum, and it could dictate the future of the EU and the euro. 

Asian Trader: Cautious on INFY, Tata Consultancy Services: Donald Trump’s executive order on H-1B work visas is more bad news for struggling Indian infotech outsourcers. 

Emerging Markets: “Fixed-income investment in emerging markets has traditionally been dominated by sovereign Eurobonds, but yield-hungry investors are widening their horizons to corporate debt, with good results.” 

Commodities: Gold has regained strength after a drop, reflecting concerns about the U.S. economy and worries about the European elections. 

Streetwise: “An April survey of global money managers by Bank of America Merrill Lynch showed 83% of respondents consider U.S. stocks overvalued, the highest on record.” 

Risk-On Returns as Leaders Jawbone Reform Efforts

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Risk-On Returns as Leaders Jawbone Reform Efforts
Fri, 21 Apr 2017 16:04 PM EST

Trading resumed this week with investors looking to add back some of the risk taken out of their portfolios ahead of the long Easter break. A lack of escalation surrounding the Korean Peninsula and renewed hopes of forthcoming Congressional reform legislation spurred some early buying in equities and helped put a floor in bond yields. The IMF modestly raised its global growth outlook for 2017 to 3.5% as G20 finance ministers and central bankers met in Washington and produced mostly upbeat commentary about diminishing risks. The surprise move by UK PM May to call snap elections and the impending French election kept sentiment muted. Cable moved up roughly 2.5% and held most of those gains after the election announcement. For the week the DJIA rose 0.5%, the S&P gained 0.9%, and the Nasdaq added 1.8%.

US economic readings retreated from the recent higher levels and largely came up short of expectations. Overseas data, with the exception of the UK, revealed some relative strength which helped pressure the US Dollar Index to the its lowest levels in nearly a month. US Treasury yields hovered near their lowest levels since November and gold prices made a run at $1,300 early on before consolidating. On Friday, WTI crude slipped back below the $50 mark to levels not seen since March on what traders largely attributed to technical selling pressures. Regardless, US rig counts and total NA production continued to rise, overshadowing reports that OPEC is likely headed towards a six month extension of coordinated production cuts.

In corporate news this week, earnings season commenced with some big financial names. Goldman disappointed investors with a first quarter sales and earnings miss, sending the stock on its biggest one-day post-earnings selloff since going public in 1999. Morgan Stanley delivered a rebuke to its rival’s quarter, reporting a Q1 beat on both top and bottom lines, helped by a boost in bond trading revenue following the Fed's interest rate hike. Bank of America reported solid results, but they, along with several regional banks, exhibited slower loan growth in the quarter. American Express led the Dow higher on Thursday after its earnings beat indicated it might be finding ways to overcome last year’s Costco portfolio loss. In tech names, Netflix beat on earnings but missed on revenues, as streaming net new additions came in below management’s own guidance. IBM revenues came in below expectations, but its CFO said that was mostly due to increasing forex headwinds, and the hardware giant affirmed its full year outlook. On Friday Honeywell and Visa put up outstanding quarters yet again leading to new 52-week highs while GE meandered lower after missing quarterly cash flow projections.


SUNDAY 4/16
(TR) Turkey passes referendum on changing the constitution to replace its parliamentary system with the executive presidency with 51.5% v 48.7%; opposition to challenge result
(CN) CHINA Q1 GDP Y/Y: 6.9% V 6.8%E (fastest growth since the third quarter of 2015)
(CN) CHINA MAR RETAIL SALES Y/Y: 10.9% (3-month high) V 9.7%E; YTD Y/Y: 10.0% V 9.6%E
(CN) CHINA MAR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 7.6% (highest since Dec 2014) V 6.3%E; YTD 6.8% V 6.3%E
(CN) CHINA MAR FIXED ASSETS EX RURAL YTD Y/Y: 9.2% (10-month high) V 8.8%E

MONDAY 4/17
US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) reportedly considering lifting a ban on telecoms companies engaging in merger talks - financial press
(US) APR EMPIRE MANUFACTURING: 5.2 V 15.0E
(US) APR NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX: 68 V 70E
(US) FEB TOTAL NET TIC FLOWS: $19.3B V $121.2B PRIOR; NET LONG-TERM TIC FLOWS: $53.4B V $5.9B PRIOR
NFLX Reports Q1 $0.40 v $0.38e, R$2.64B v $2.64Be
UAL Reports Q1 $0.41 (adj) v $0.37e, R$8.42B v $8.36Be
(CN) CHINA MAR PROPERTY PRICES M/M: RISE IN 62 OUT OF 70 CITIES VS 56 PRIOR; Y/Y: RISE IN 68 OUT OF 70 CITIES V 67 PRIOR
(JP) Japan nominates Goshi Kataoka and Hitoshi Suzuki to BOJ board; will replace BOJ dissenters Sato and Kiuchi

TUESDAY 4/18
(UK) PM MAY STATEMENT: CALLS FOR GENERAL ELECTION JUNE 8TH (as speculated); needs a stronger mandate to negotiate Brexit with EU
BAC Reports Q1 $0.41 v $0.35e, R$22.2B v $21.5Be
GS Reports Q1 $5.15 v $5.38e, R$8.03B v $8.37Be; Increases dividend 15% to $0.75/shr (implied yield 1.3%); authorizes additional $50M share buyback (0.6% of market cap)
*IMF UPDATES WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK (WEO): Raises 2017 global growth forecast from 3.4% to 3.5%
*(US) MAR HOUSING STARTS: 1.22M V 1.25ME; BUILDING PERMITS: 1.26M V 1.25ME
(US) MAR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 0.5% V 0.4%E; CAPACITY UTILIZATION: 76.1% V 76.1%E
(US) Atlanta Fed maintains Q1 GDP at 0.5%, unchanged from 4/14
IBM Reports Q1 $2.38 v $2.34e, R$18.2B v $18.5Be

WEDNESDAY 4/19
(HK) Macau reports Easter Weekend visitors 427K, +5.6% y/y
ASML.NL Reports Q1 Net €452M v €403Me, Rev €1.94B v €1.82Be
BRBY.UK Reports H2 Rev £1.61B v £1.61Be; SSS +3% v +3.8%e
HEIA.NL Reports Q1 Net €293M v €265M y/y
(EU) EURO ZONE MAR CPI M/M: 0.8% V 0.8%E; Y/Y (FINAL READING): 1.5% V 1.5%E; CPI CORE Y/Y(FINAL READING): 0.7% V 0.7%E
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending April 15th: 519.3K carloads and intermodal units, +3.9% y/y (14th straight week of gains)
CP Reports Q1 C$2.50 adj v C$2.50 y/y, rev C$1.6B v C$1.59B y/y
CSX Reports Q1 $0.51 v $0.43e, R$2.87B v $2.73Be
RIO.AU Reports Q1 global iron ore production 66.2Mt, -2% y/y, -10% q/q; Shipments 80.8Mt, +11% y/y

THURSDAY 4/20
NESN.CH Reports Q1 Rev CHF21.0B v CHF21.3Be
SU.FR Reports Q1 Rev €5.84B v €5.84Be, organic sales 3.1% y/y
UNA.NL Reports Q1 Rev €13.3B v €13.2Be; raises dividend 12% to €0.3585/shr
BMW.DE Reports prelim Q1 PBT €3.0B v €2.37B y/y, EBIT €2.65B v €2.46B y/y, Rev €23.4B v €20.9B y/y
*(ID) INDONESIA CENTRAL BANK (BI) LEAVES 7-DAY REVERSE REPO RATE UNCHANGED AT 4.75%; AS EXPECTED (6th straight pause in current easing cycle)
(US) APR PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK: 22.0 V 25.5E (lowest since Dec)
(US) MAR LEADING INDEX: 0.4% V 0.2%E
BN.FR Reports Q1 Rev €5.46B v €5.31B y/y; raises FY outlook
KND Reportedly considering sale of nursing division, but also getting M&A interest for the whole company - M&A blog
V Reports Q2 $0.86 v $0.79e, R$4.48B v $4.30Be; announces $5B buyback (2% of market cap)
(JP) JAPAN APR PRELIMINARY PMI MANUFACTURING: 52.8 V 52.4 PRIOR (8th month of expansion)

FRIDAY 4/21
(FR) FRANCE APR PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 55.1 V 53.1E (7th month of expansion and and highest since Apr 2011)
*(DE) GERMANY APR PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 58.2 V 58.0E (29th month of expansion)
(EU) EURO ZONE APR PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 56.8 V 56.0E (46th month of expansion and highest since Apr 2011)
(UK) MAR RETAIL SALES (EX AUTO FUEL) M/M: -1.5% V -0.5%E; Y/Y: 2.6% V 3.8%E
GE Reports Q1 $0.21 v $0.17e, R$27.7B v $26.4Be
SLB Reports Q1 $0.25 v $0.25e, R$6.89B v $7.01Be
(US) APR PRELIMINARY MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 52.8 V 53.8E
(US) MAR EXISTING HOME SALES: 5.71M V 5.60ME

Barrons weekend summary

Barrons weekend summary: Cover story features REGN, VRTX; positive on HBI, WAB 

Cover story: Drug-price increases are likely to ease because of market-based forces and government policy tweaks; Investors should focus on companies that are increasing revenue through new drugs and growing customer bases, such as REGN and VRTX, and not on serial price hikers such as ABBV, AMGN, and BIIB. 

Features: 

1) Positive on HBI: Demand for undergarments remains strong, and as retail inventories stabilize and Hanes sees cost savings from debt reduction and acquisitions, shares could rise 25%; 

2) Positive on WAB: Company has completed about 50 acquisitions during the past decade, creating a diverse and less volatile business; shares could rise 20% in a year. 

Tech Trader: Some people on Wall Street think AAPL should buy DIS to create a tech and media powerhouse, but it's a terrible idea, says columnist Tiernan Ray, since the companies are pursuing vastly different missions. 

Trader: "The rally impetus from the so-called Trump trade seems depleted," and investors are worried the president will be unable to implement his economic policies; Positive in F: The stock's recent weakness reflects several concerns, but the automaker is sitting on a strong balance sheet, shares look cheap, and the company has a secure high dividend; Cautious on DAL: Carrier, considered the best-managed among top American rivals, could see its shares move higher if it can demonstrate earnings consistency and growth. 

Advisor Rankings: Top 100: Barron's list of the top 100 financial advisors is topped by Andy Chase, Gregory Vaughan, Lyon Polk, and Brian Pfeifler of Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management and Mark Curtis of Graystone Consulting; Barron's list of the top consultants to institutional investors is led by Graystone, UBS International Consulting Group, and Sheridan Road Financial. 

Small Caps: Positive in Linamar (LNR.CA): Canadian company is well-positioned in a slowing auto market, and its engine and transmission components are poised to grow well above the market clip. 

Profile: Rob Lanphier and Karl Brewer of the William Blair

 Small-Mid Cap fund look for companies with a market value of $500M to $10B in sectors with double-digit weightings in the Russell 2500 Growth Index (top 10 holdings: CPRT, CSGP, LGND, SIX, TSCO, JCOM, MMS, BWXT, VEEV, BAH). 

Interview: Michael Hartner, investment strategist at Merrill Lynch, discusses the "Icarus trade"-the idea that stocks will return to normal after years of monetary policy. 

Follow-Up: 

1) Positive in WFM: Shares could rise if grocer heeds advice from activist hedge fund Jana Partners to improve operations, shake up the board, and consider a sale; 

2) Cautious on P: Internet radio station is struggling to remake its streaming business, but the brand has value and the worst could be over for shares. 

European Trader: Investors want to know what strategies Akzo Nobel will employ to deliver more value as it faces increasing pressure to accept an acquisition bid from PPG. 

Asian Trader: China's next business and commercial hub, the city of Xiong'an in Hebei province, could attract up to $350B in investment in the coming years, says Morgan Stanley.

Emerging Markets: "Long term, South Africa has little to cheer about," with president Jacob Zuma the target of corruption probes and his party moving toward more populist polices that will foster economic stagnation. 

Commodities: Strong demand for cotton from abroad led to higher prices last year, but higher plantings this year should put downward pressure on them. 

Streetwise: The autopilot approach of passive investing may be fine for young people, but retirees who need to navigate turbulent markets may prefer a skilled advisor. 

Risk Assets Fall Out of Favor During Holiday Shortened Week

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Risk Assets Fall Out of Favor During Holiday Shortened Week
Thu, 13 Apr 2017 16:03 PM EST

Investors' risk appetite faded this week. Traders didn't necessarily attribute the change in sentiment to one headline; re-positioning ahead of Q2 earnings season and the French election, enhanced geopolitical concerns surrounding North Korea and Syria, combined with waning confidence in Washington DC's ability to deliver on promised economic reforms remained underlying themes. Volumes were noticeably muted, with the Easter calendar providing a bit of a lull in terms of both trader participation and likely catalysts. Against that backdrop the VIX jumped more than 20% touching levels not seen since the US election. For the week the Dow finished down 1%, the S&P lost 1.1%, and the NASDAQ slipped 1.2%.

Treasuries rallied throughout the week, and stocks fell out of favor. Today the US 10-year note yield fell to its lowest level this year at 2.21% before closing slightly higher. Medium term notes and long bonds auctioned over the week also saw average yields decline significantly from previous tenders. Gold and the Yen were also in high demand as alternative havens to fixed income. Gold moved up to levels not seen since November rising 2.6% over the week. The Yen surged to highest level against the US dollar since the November election after President Trump commented he was concerned about the Greenback getting too strong globally.

In corporate news for this shortened week, AT&T announced Monday it would acquire Straight Path for $95.63/share in a $1.6B all-stock deal. The telecom giant is aiming to strengthen its 5G service potential, as Straight Path is one of the largest holders of 28 GHz and 39 GHz millimeter wave spectrum, bands which have received FCC approval to carry 5G. AT&T and other telecoms, acquired additional spectrum for their 5G build out via a $20B FCC-run auction on Thursday. T-mobile spent just under $8B to capture about 45% of the low band spectrum being sold off by broadcasters. Swift Transportation acquired Knight Transportation in an all-stock transaction that will create the industry's largest full truckload company, with a combined EV of $6B. The deal would be the largest in the trucking sector since the $3B Con-way/XPO merger in 2015. Tesla may soon be supplying those truckers with autonomous semi-trucks, announcing that it will unveil its version of the big rig in September. Tesla also hit a financial milestone this week, surpassing General Motors in market cap to become the most valuable U.S. automaker. Late in the week, steel stocks were pressured after the US Commerce Department imposed preliminary duties on South Korean steel that were lower than had been anticipated.

SUNDAY APRIL 9TH
04/09 (HK) Macau’s biggest junket operator Suncity reports 1st half of March was +40% y/y

MONDAY APRIL 10th
(FR) BANK OF FRANCE MAR BUSINESS SENTIMENT: 103 V 104E
(EU) EURO ZONE APR SENTIX INVESTOR CONFIDENCE: 23.9 V 21.0E
Gartner: Cuts 2017 global IT spending forecast +1.4% y/y (prior 2.7%)
STRP To be acquired by AT&T for $95.63/shr in $1.6B all-stock deal
(US) Mar Labor Market Conditions Index Change: 0.4 v 1.0e
(US) Fed Chair Yellen: US economy now is pretty healthy - comments in Michigan

TUESDAY APRIL 11TH
(UK) MAR CPI M/M: 0.4% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.3%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 1.8% V 1.9%E
(DE) GERMANY APR ZEW CURRENT SITUATION SURVEY: 80.1 V 77.5E; EXPECTATIONS SURVEY: 19.5 V 14.8E
(SA) Saudi Arabia said to push for extension of OPEC production cuts - press
(CN) CHINA MAR CPI M/M: -0.3% (2nd straight decline) v -0.2% PRIOR; Y/Y: 0.9% V 1.0%E
(CN) CHINA MAR PPI Y/Y: 7.6% V 7.5%E; 7th consecutive increase
(KR) US Commerce Dept found South Korean steel producers have been dumping tubular steel, imposes preliminary duties of 2.76% to 24.9%

WEDNESDAY APRIL 12TH
TSCO.UK Reports FY16/17 adj PBT £729M v £335M y/y, adj Op £1.28B v £1.26Be, Rev (Inc Fuel) £55.9B v £55.7Be
(UK) FEB AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS 3M/Y: 2.3% V 2.2%E; WEEKLY EARNINGS (EX BONUS) 3M/Y: 2.2% V 2.1%E
(UK) FEB ILO UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 3M/3M: 4.7% V 4.7%E
(UK) MAR JOBLESS CLAIMS CHANGE: +25.5K V -6.1K PRIOR; CLAIMANT COUNT RATE: 2.2% V 2.1% PRIOR
OPEC MONTHLY REPORT: OPEC oil production at 31.928M bpd, -153K bpd m/m
DAL Reports Q1 $0.77 v $0.73e, R$9.15B v $9.16Be
(US) MAR IMPORT PRICE INDEX M/M: -0.2% V -0.2%E; Y/Y: 4.2% V 4.0%E
(CA) BANK OF CANADA (BOC) LEAVES INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED AT 0.50%; AS EXPECTED
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending April 8th: 513.0K carloads and intermodal units, +7.1% y/y (13th straight week of gains)
(US) Pres Trump: US dollar is getting too strong; Will not label China a currency manipulator - press interview

THURSDAY APRIL 13th
CA.FR Reports Q1 Rev €21.3B v €21.3Be
JP Morgan Reports Q1 $1.65 v $1.51e, R$25.6B (managed) v $24.6Be; core loans +9% y/y, +1% q/q
Citigroup Reports Q1 $1.35 v $1.24e, R$18.1B v $17.8Be
(US) MAR PPI FINAL DEMAND M/M: -0.1% V 0.0%E; Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.4%E
(US) APR PRELIMINARY UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 98 V 96.5E
(US) Forces in Afghanistan struck ISIS tunnels with "the mother of all bombs", largest conventional bomb ever used by the US military – press
(US) FCC announces preliminary results of $19.8B spectrum auction; largest winners include T-Mobile, Dish, Comcast, U.S. Cellular
TSLA Elon Musk tweets: "Tesla Semi truck unveil set for September."

Barrons weekend summary

Barrons weekend summary: Positive on STX and select energy names; cautious on GKOS 

Cover story: Roger Ferguson, chief executive of TIAA-CREF, has taken a number of steps to reinvent the company, including hiring Vijay Advani to run the asset-management side, which has been rebranded as Nuveen, and consolidating a variety of businesses. 

Features: 

1) Positive on LNGG, Ultra Petroleum, SD, HK, MPO, GDPP: After emerging from bankruptcy, these energy companies reduced debt levels, have stronger balance sheets than many rivals, and are attracting interest from value-oriented investors; 

2) Cautious on GKOS: Medical device maker has had a strong run, but faces increased competition from NCS and AGN; shares carry a high valuation, and a minor setback could send them down 30%; 

3) The outlook for gold is stronger, with overproduction no longer an issue despite growing demand, especially in Asia; any whiff of stagflation could send the precious metal higher (Positive on GLD, GDX, GDXJ, ABX).

Tech Trader: Positive on STX: Chief Steve Luczo says investors misunderstand the company, one of three that make hard drives, and that it should be judged not by how many units its ships, but by the power and efficiency of each drive and their underlying technology. 

Trader: Not all investors are confident about the market's resilience, and it may be necessary to tamp down confidence in an economic acceleration in the near term; Maxim analyst Stephen Anderson says the availability of cheap debt and strong cash-flow generation at restaurants make chains such as DNKN good acquisition targets; "Bank stocks have suffered with the death of the Trump trade. But that doesn't mean it's time to bail on the group." 

Small Caps: Positive on JLL: Worries about the commercial real estate market have weighed on shares, but the stock already reflects pessimism and is trading at a substantial discount-shares could rise 40%. 

Mutual Fund Quarterly: 

1) Hersh Cohen of ClearBridge shares his top dividend picks, including MRK, SLB, IP, and PSX; 

2) A look at how to use smart beta strategies to build stronger bond indexes, a problematic area for investors; 

3) "Behavioral-finance fund managers capitalize on the errors investors routinely make," and some do it quite well, though not always at a low cost; 

4) During the first quarter, growth mutual funds beat top value funds amid a strong stock rally based on hopes of economic growth, while foreign funds had the best performance. 

Follow-Up: Positive on CELG: Trading at 17 times earnings, drug company is the rare case in its sector with rapid revenue growth, and shares could see a 12% gain, says Carter Gould of UBS; Cautious on AFSI: "The quality of the New York-based insurer's reserve practices remains questionable."

European Trader: Positive on Bayer, Novo Nordisk: U.S. investors can benefit from a valuation gap between the American and European markets that has created a price advantage for investors in the pharma giants. 

Asian Trader: Investors need to be more vigilant about China's big bank stocks, which have seen a rally despite having near-nonexistent earnings growth and shrinking net-interest margins. 

Emerging Markets: The Turkish market is likely to rally regardless of the outcome of a vote on 18 proposed constitutional amendments, because the result will put an end to uncertainty. 

Commodities: Outages at three of the world's largest copper mines have erased what was expected to be a surplus, prompting analysts to forecast higher prices. 

Streetwise: "Trillions from global central banks have already lifted stocks and bonds to giddy heights, but haven't animated the economy to quite the same extent." 

Markets Directionless Amid Conflicting Data and Geopolitical Maneuvers

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Markets Directionless Amid Conflicting Data and Geopolitical Maneuvers
Fri, 07 Apr 2017 16:09 PM EST

Equities remained within a fairly narrow range throughout most of the week as markets focused on events in Syria, as well as President Trump's highly anticipated meeting with China President Xi and congressional attempts to enact some part of the White House agenda. US stock markets traded mostly sideways, and for the week the DJIA was about flat, the S&P500 slipped 0.3%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.6%.

Stronger than expected ADP employment data pushed the Dow back up near 20,900 on Wednesday, but stocks to close down on the day after Speaker Ryan admitted that Republican factions were not yet “on the same page” on tax reform, and the FOMC minutes showed the Fed aiming to start shrinking its balance sheet in late 2017. The forecast for NFP had been raised to 180k after strong ADP data, so Friday's 98K top-line reading was surprising, sending 10-year notes to a low of 2.27%. That reaction was wiped out as New York Fed President Dudley reinforced the idea that the Fed may pause its rate hike schedule at the outset of the balance sheet runoff. 10-year yields rose again to close the day at 2.37% as the reflation trade remained intact.

The ECB faced continued pressure from German officials, most notably the Bundesbank. ECB President Draghi made comments dismissing the need to reduce the size of its QE program, despite many calling for it. Germany in particular is seeing rising inflation, while for other EU countries CPI remains subdued. There is likely to be more pressure as the Fed continues to hike rates. India hiked its key Reverse Repo rate this week in an attempt to defend the economy from rising inflation and maintain the spread to US dollar assets.

In corporate news, Tesla started the week off by posting Q1 deliveries above analyst estimates, which boosted investor confidence in 50K deliveries for the first half and bolstered the automaker’s effort as it starts production of the Model 3. Hospital stocks were volatile most of the week, as GOP members of Congress held meetings to potentially revive its Obamacare repeal endeavor, but the exercise was largely fruitless and the repeal bill remains in congressional purgatory as legislators start a two week recess. On the M&A front, a report indicated Staples is in early stage talks for a potential sale to private equity, in a deal that could be worth $7B. Bakery chain Panera Bread was acquired by investor JAB Holding -- owner of Krispy Kreme, Keurig, and various coffee retailers -- for $315/share in cash, in a deal valued at $7.5B. The $43B Syngenta-ChemChina merger received FTC approval, though some divestitures of US assets would be required.



SUNDAY APR 2
TSLA Reports Q1 deliveries just over 25.0K (~13.5K Model S; ~11.6K Model X), +69% y/y; Production 25.4K (deliveries and production fresh record highs)
(HK) Macau Mar Gaming Rev MOP21.23B v MOP22.99B prior; y/y: 18.1% v +11%e

MONDAY APR 3
(DE) GERMANY MAR FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI: 58.3 V 58.3E (confirms its 28th month of expansion and highest since Apr 2011)
(UK) MAR PMI MANUFACTURING: 54.2 V 55.0E (8th month of expansion)
(EU) EURO ZONE FEB UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 9.5% V 9.5%E (lowest level since 2009)
(US) MAR ISM MANUFACTURING: 57.2 V 57.2E; PRICES PAID: 70.5 V 66.0E (prices paid highest since May 2011)
(US) Atlanta Fed raises Q1 GDP to 1.2% from 0.9% on 3/31
(ZA) S&P cuts South Africa sovereign credit rating to junk status, cuts one notch to BB+ from BBB-; outlook Negative
(US) Senate Democrats now have 41 votes against cloture, sufficient to filibuster nomination of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court - press
(AU) AUSTRALIA FEB TRADE BALANCE (A$): +3.6B V +1.9BE (4TH CONSECUTIVE SURPLUS)

TUESDAY APR 4
(AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) LEAVES CASH RATE TARGET UNCHANGED AT 1.50% (AS EXPECTED)
SPLS Reportedly in early stage talks with private equity over potential sale of the company; could be valued at $7B - press
(US) FEB FINAL DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: 1.8% V 1.7%E; DURABLES EX-TRANSPORTATION : 0.5% V 0.4% PRELIM
(US) Atlanta Fed maintains Q1 GDP at 1.2%, unchanged from 4/3
(US) Richmond Fed President Lacker to resign effective today over improper disclosure of confidential FOMC information, earlier than planned - press
SYT FTC approves $43B merger with ChemChina; to require divestiture of US asset as a condition for merger approval
PNRA JAB Holding reportedly in advanced talks to acquire Panera - press

WEDNESDAY APR 5
PNRA Confirms to be acquired by investor JAB for $315/shr in cash valued at $7.5B; Q1 SSS +5.3%
(PL) POLAND CENTRAL BANK (NBP) LEAVES BASE RATE UNCHANGED AT 1.50%; AS EXPECTED
(US) MAR ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +263K V +185KE
(US) MAR FINAL MARKIT SERVICES PMI: 52.8 V 53.1E (lowest since Sept)
(US) GOP leaders and conservative factions reportedly likely to take break on healthcare talks - Axios
(US) House Speaker Ryan: House, Senate and White House are not yet on the same page regarding tax reform
(US) FOMC MINUTES FROM MARCH 15 MEETING: MOST PARTICIPANTS SEE CHANGE TO BALANCE SHEET POLICY LATER THIS YEAR
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending April 1st: 527.7K carloads and intermodal units, +7.2% y/y (12th straight week of gains)
BBBY Reports Q4 $1.84 v $1.77e, R$3.53B v $3.50Be; Raises dividend 20% to $0.15/shr (indicated yield 1.6%)
2202.HK Reports Mar contracted sales CNY63.6B v CNY33.6B y/y
(HK) HONG KONG MAR COMPOSITE PMI: 49.9 V 49.6 PRIOR; 3rd straight contraction
(CN) CHINA MAR CAIXIN PMI SERVICES: 52.2 V 52.6 PRIOR (6-month low and 3rd straight sequential decline)

THURSDAY APR 6
(IN) INDIA CENTRAL BANK (RBI) LEAVES REPURCHASE RATE UNCHANGED AT 6.25%; AS EXPECTED; narrow rate corridor
(CZ) CZECH CENTRAL BANK (CNB) REMOVES FX FLOOR (allows the currency to float to stronger levels) - Extraordinary monetary policy meeting
(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 234K V 250KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 2.03M V 2.03ME
(US) Senate Republicans pass "nuclear option" rule change that will allow for approval of Gorsuch Supreme Court nomination on a majority vote basis (as expected)
(CN) US Sec of State Tillerson: Has no doubt Syria is responsible for chemical attack this week; the chemical weapons attack requires a serious response
(PE) PERU CENTRAL BANK (BRCP) LEAVES REFERENCE RATE UNCHANGED AT 4.25%; AS EXPECTED
005930.KR Reports prelim Q1 Op profit KRW9.9T v KRW9.2Te, Rev KRW50T v KRW49.5Te
(SY) US LAUNCHED CRUISE MISSILES AGAINST AIRFIELD TARGETS IN SYRIA

FRIDAY APR 7
(CN) CHINA MAR FOREIGN RESERVES: $3.009T V $3.011TE (2nd straight month of increase)
(UK) FEB INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: -0.7% V +0.2%E; Y/Y: 2.8% V 3.7%E
(GR) Eurogroup Chief Dijsselbloem: making significant progress on Greece; have an agreement on main Greek policy elements
(US) MAR UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.5% V 4.7%E (lowest since April 2007)
(CA) CANADA MAR NET CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT: +19.4K V +5.7KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 6.7% V 6.7%E
(US) MAR AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M: 0.2% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 2.7% V 2.7%E; AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS: 34.3 V 34.4E
(US) MAR CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: +98K V +180KE (lowest since May 2016)

Brexit Begins, Washington Resets

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Brexit Begins, Washington Resets
Fri, 31 Mar 2017 16:08 PM EST

Equities returned to their bull trend this week on positive economic data and talk of tax reform from the Trump administration. Markets shook off concerns about the Trump legislative agenda after the failed effort at healthcare reform, as the prospects of moving on to economic policy implementation starting with tax cuts re-galvanized investors' interest in stocks. For the week, the Dow gained 0.3%, the S&P added 0.8% and the Nasdaq rose 1.4%.

Talk from various Fed officials of three rate hikes for 2017 and maintaining a prudent pace kept the reflation trade muted. The economy is seen as being on track, warranting another couple of hikes this year. However, the bond market had been looking for evidence there might be a total of four. 10-Year Treasuries maintained their yield within a tight range throughout the week; most price action kept yield between a month low of 2.37% and 2.41%. WTI crude bounced from last week's low at $47, to close the week above $50 a barrel, as EIA reported an unexpected drop in supply and traders' judged OPEC cuts in a different light.

The UK Prime Minister May sent a letter to the EU council formally initiating the Brexit process by triggering Article 50 of the EU constitution. The text of the letter was conciliatory, but also advised that it was in both parties' interest to reach an agreement. It also warned that security would be undermined if a deal was not reached and called for simultaneous negotiations of Brexit terms along with a future trade deal. The EU answered that trade negotiations can only happen once Brexit terms are at a well advanced point, and EU officials reiterated calls for a £50B divorce bill. The British government has not made any official comments so far as to the size of the divorce bill request. Less than two days after invoking Article 50, the UK reported Q4 final GDP at 1.9%, its worst annual growth pace in nearly four years and potentially a bad omen as the Brexit begins.

In corporate news, with earnings season past us, hospital names led the week off buoyed by the scuttling of the Republican healthcare plan. Greenlight's Einhorn pushed GM to boost its share value by splitting common stock into two separate classes, but management rejected the plan on grounds it could harm the carmaker’s investment-grade rating. On the M&A front, the EU formally blocked Deutsche Boerse’s plan to acquire London Stock Exchange, citing competition concerns. Semiconductor company Maxlinear acquired Exar Group for $13.00/shr in cash in a $700M transaction, seeking to build scale and boost growth. Cenovus agreed to acquire ConocoPhillips' 50% interest in the FCCL Partnership for $17.7B in cash and shares, as Conoco aims to accelerate its debt reduction plan. And FMC announced it would buy parts of Dupont's Crop protection business, and Dupont would acquire FMC Health and Nutrition, as part of a strategy to win EU approval for the Dow-Dupont merger.

SUNDAY 3/26
386.HK Reports Q4 Net CNY46.4B v CNY32.3B y/y; Op CNY77.2B v CNY56.8B y/y; Rev CNY1.93T v CNY2.02T y/y
2202.HK Reports FY16 Net CNY21.0B v CNY18.1B y/y, Rev CNY228.9B v CNY184.3B y/y

MONDAY 3/27
(EU) EURO ZONE FEB M3 MONEY SUPPLY Y/Y: 4.7% V 4.9%E
(DE) GERMANY MAR IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE: 112.3 V 111.1E (highest since July 2011); CURRENT ASSESSMENT: 119.3 V 118.3E

TUESDAY 3/28
3328.HK Reports FY16 Net CNY67.2B v CNY65.4Be, NII CNY134.9B v CNY144.2B y/y
(US) MAR RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: 22 V 15E
- Volume of new orders 26 v 24 prior
(US) MAR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 125.6 V 114.0E (highest since Dec 2000)

WEDNESDAY 3/29
(FR) FRANCE MAR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 100 V 100E
(TH)THAILAND CENTRAL BANK (BOT) LEAVES BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE UNCHANGED AT 1.50%; AS EXPECTED
494.HK Reports FY16 Net $223M v $283.5Me, Op profit $412M v $512M y/y, Rev $16.8B v $17.6Be
(UK) UK FORMALLY BEGINS BREXIT PROCESS WITH TRANSFER OF SIGNED ARTICLE 50 LETTER TO EU'S PRESIDENT TUSK
(UK) PM May presents content of Article 50 letter: Confirm beginning of Brexit process; no turning back from this historic moment to shape the future
(EU) ECB said to be wary of making any fresh-policy shift in its communication at its April meeting - financial press
(US) Fed’s Evans (dove, voter): there has been good progress towards Fed goals; supports one or two more rate hikes this year
(US) Fed's Rosengren (moderate, non-voter): Fed should raise rates four times in 2017; raises should only be delayed if data disappoints - remarks in Boston
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending March 25th: 526.4K carloads and intermodal units, +12% y/y (11th straight week of gains)

THURSDAY 3/30
(DE) GERMANY MAR CPI SAXONY M/M: 0.2% V 0.5% PRIOR; Y/Y: 1.8% V 2.4% PRIOR
1398.HK Reports FY16 Net CNY278.2B v CNY275.3Be, Net interest income CNY471.8B v CNY508B y/y
(EU) EURO ZONE MAR BUSINESS CLIMATE INDICATOR: 0.82 V 0.87E; CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (FINAL): -5.0 V -5.0E
(CZ) CZECH CENTRAL BANK (CNB) LEAVES REPURCHASE RATE UNCHANGED AT 0.05%; AS EXPECTED
(DE) GERMANY MAR PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.2% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 1.6% V 1.8%E
(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 258K V 247KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 2.05M V 2.03ME
(US) Q4 FINAL GDP PRICE INDEX: 2.1% V 2.0%E; CORE PCE Q/Q: 1.3% V 1.2%E
(US) Q4 FINAL GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: 2.1% V 2.0%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 3.5% V 3.0%E
(ZA) SOUTH AFRICA CENTRAL BANK (SARB) LEAVES INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED AT 7.00%; AS EXPECTED
(US) Trump administration draft letter seeks changes to NAFTA, but not scrapping deal altogether - Washington Post
(EU) ECB's Knot (Netherlands): rate hike in early 2018 is closer to my own expectations - Dutch press interview
(UK) Scotland First Min Sturgeon sends letter (section 30) to UK govt formally requesting 2nd Scottish independence referendum - financial press
(MX) MEXICO CENTRAL BANK (BANXICO) RAISES OVERNIGHT RATE BY 25BPS TO 6.50%; AS EXPECTED
(ZA) South Africa President Zuma reportedly to make major cabinet reshuffle; Fin Min Gordhan will be affected by overhaul - press
(US) Fed's Dudley (dove, FOMC voter): Rate rises are needed to keep expansion on track; economic risks may be tilting toward the upside - comments in Florida
(JP) JAPAN FEB JOBLESS RATE: 2.8% V 3.0%E; lowest since June 1994
(CN) CHINA MAR MANUFACTURING PMI (GOVT OFFICIAL): 51.8 (highest since Apr 2012) V 51.7E; NON-MANUFACTURING PMI: 55.1 (highest since May 2014) V 54.2 PRIOR

FRIDAY 3/31
(EU) EU Brexit negotiation guidelines said to ban bilateral talks between UK and EU member States - financial press
(EU) EU President Tusk formally present Brexit negotiation guidelines: Will visit London with talks with PM May ahead of the Apr 29th summit; reiterates that UK must fulfill its financial obligation to EU
(UK) Q4 FINAL GDP Q/Q: 0.7% V 0.7%E; Y/Y: 1.9% V 2.0%E (lowest annual pace since Q1 2013)
3988.HK Reports FY16 Net CNY164.6B v CNY167.1Be, Op Rev CNY485.7B v CNY473.9B y/y
(EU) EURO ZONE MAR ADVANCE CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: 1.5% V 1.8%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 0.7% V 0.8%E
(US) FEB PERSONAL INCOME: 0.4% V 0.4%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: 0.1% V 0.2%E
(US) FEB PCE DEFLATOR M/M: 0.1% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 2.1% V 2.1%E
(US) FEB PCE CORE M/M: 0.2% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 1.8% V 1.7%E
(US) MAR CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER: 57.7 V 56.9E
(US) MAR FINAL MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 96.9 V 97.6E
(US) Atlanta Fed cuts Q1 GDP to 0.9% from 1.0% on 3/24
(US) New York Fed Nowcast: cuts Q1 GDP forecast to 2.9% from 3.0% on 3/24; cuts Q2 GDP forecast to 2.6% from 2.7%

Barrons weekend update

Barrons weekend update: Positive on VIA, SIVB; cautious on SEDG 

Cover story: Barron's list of the World's Best CEOs includes newcomers Mary Barra of GM, Satya Nadella of MSFT, and Stephen Hensley of UNH. 

Features: 

1) Positive on VIA: The media company's shares are up since Bob Bakish became CEO, and his plan to reorganize programming, revive reality TV, and create more content for MTV could give shares a 40% upside; 

2) Cautious on SEDG: Shares of company that makes residential and commercial solar-power systems have taken a hit along with those of other firms in the sector, but shares are underpriced and could rally if sales targets are hit this year; 

3) Positive on SIVB: Lender to venture capitalists and start-up founders expects strong earnings growth in the years ahead, and shares could move 25% or more higher.

Tech Trader: Tiernan Ray says the good times for MU aren't likely to last, since DRAM and flash memory chips "haven't become any less of a commodity since the stock bottomed out roughly a year ago." 

Trader: Jason Trennert of Strategas Research Partners says that of nine factors that precede a market top, only one-slowing upward earnings revisions-is of concern; Robert Sluymer of Fundstrat Global Advisors says the number of energy stocks making new relative lows is no longer growing; Mall REITs have historically outperformed other real estate investments when rates are rising, a trend that should continue this year. 

Interview: Mariko Gordon of small-cap specialist Daruma Capital looks for a positive rate of change in a company's fundamentals and for risks and rewards that aren't reflected in the valuation (picks: ABM, FCB, OMCL, NPO). 

Profile: Jim Dondero of Highland Capital Management makes bets on alternative investments by focusing strongly on debt deals, turnarounds, and trends (top holdings: VSTE, CLO, TWTR, TRGP, LRN, PAGP, EPD, TerreStar, Argentina sovereign debt). 

Follow-Up: Positive on YHOO: Company's shares trade at a discount to its likely asset value; assuming no change in its BABA stake, investors could realize a 20% return during the next year; Cautious on GME: Shares could rally if the company gains time for its transition to selling a wider range of merchandise, and strong sales on new products from Nintendo and MSFT. 

European Trader: Positive on TOT: French oil major "could again find favor with investors after emerging from the recent oil-price collapse in better shape than many rivals." 

Asian Trader: Positive on BABA, Tencent: With fintech set to be a major trend in China, tech giants have the potential to generate an estimated $65B in sales by 2020 from the technology, and add 60% to their current valuations. 

Emerging Markets: Poland, Korea, and Mexico are the best-performing emerging-market countries so far this year, while Greece, Russia, and Qatar/UAE have performed the worst. 

Commodities: Lumber prices are set to rise because of a small trade war under way between the U.S. and Canada related to the price Canadian foresters charge to cut down a tree. 

Streetwise: "With the dollar's rise stalling and Americans balking at potential border adjustments that make imports pricier, investors looking to walk back their Trump trades could find NKE an increasingly comfortable fit."