Saturday, March 17, 2018

Barrons weekend summary

Barrons weekend summary: positive features on AGN, GPS 
Cover story: Short-term approaches to elderly caregiving can “stretch into years, upending lives, taking family dysfunction to new levels, and blowing up otherwise solid retirement plans,” making long-term care one of the biggest challenges of aging; Barron’s provides an overview of the stages of care to help people craft a plan that works best for all family members. 

Features: 1) Positive on AGN: Growing competition for Botox and the surprise loss of patent exclusivity for dry-eye treatment Restasis have prompted worry, but the concerns are overdone, and the stock “is ready for a major face-lift”; 2) Positive on GPS: Retailer’s Old Navy brand is seeing fast sales growth and plump profit margins, has exposure to strong areas such as activewear—and could end up boosting Gap shares by 25%; 3) Interview with Hedgeye Risk Management healthcare analyst Tom Tobin, who says medical costs could begin falling for the first time in more than half a century. 

Tech Trader: Now that the Trump administration has thwarted AVGO’s plan to acquire QCOM, Wall Street is focusing on what chief Hock Tan’s plan B deals will be; the two most likely targets are XLNX and MU, but others are conceivable, including MCHP, MRVL, MXIM, and ADI. 

Trader: There’s a good chance that if the market tumbles even more, it won’t be because of higher bond yields and concerns about inflation, says Michael Shaoul of Marketfield Asset Management; Investors shouldn’t be surprised if there are more highs ahead for banks, because the current environment seems right for a rally. 

The Financial Crisis 10 Years Later: 1) Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital, one of the few experts who predicted the financial crisis, doesn’t see any disasters in the offing, unmitigated or otherwise—but says that’s no reason to relax; 2) Ten years after the collapse of Bear Stearns, it’s clear that “no regulatory apparatus can be erected against complacency or the normal ebb and glow of the business cycle.” 

Follow-Up: GS, recently humbled by a trading slump, has created something of a hedge with its apparent choice of David Solomon, a lender and investment banker, to replace chief Lloyd Blankfein; The SEC’s recent action against Theranos is an attempt to address the Silicon Valley hype machine, and could begin to foster more truth and accountability among startups. 

European Trader: Positive on Umicore: For investors looking for a promising bet on the rising demand for electric vehicles, the Belgium-based battery-materials company could fit the bill. 

Asian Trader: Many investors see the potential meeting between Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un as a turning point for South Korea and its perennially cheap stock market. 

Emerging Markets: Investors concerned about the long-term outlook for emerging markets can compromise by seeking out funds that dampen the volatility of the asset class. 

Commodities: “Import tariffs announced by the Trump administration threaten to spark a global trade war that could put a dent in the U.S. agricultural market, and domestic soybean prices could suffer the most.” 

Streetwise: The Trump administration’s move to block the AVGO-QCOM deal may have been misguided, because Broadcom is really a collection of U.S. businesses, but what was more troubling was that it came without any signal government policy had changed.

Friday, March 16, 2018

Political Uncertainty and Weak Data Stall Markets

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Political Uncertainty and Weak Data Stall Markets
Fri, 16 Mar 2018 16:05 PM EST

Equity markets had a tough time getting out of their own way this week as headlines coming out of Washington DC continued to keep investors unsettled. The week began with news that the President blocked Broadcom from acquiring Qualcomm on national security grounds, sending a chill over potential M&A activity going forward. There was also another bout of turnover at the White House as Trump finally sacked Secretary of State Rex Tillerson as it was long speculated he would. The abrupt manner in which the firing transpired led to litany of rumors handicapping the odds of more changes to the President’s inner circle in the near future. Trump formally added Larry Kudlow to his economic advisory council replacing Gary Cohen, but that failed to squelch trade war worries on speculation that another round of broad ranging Chinese tariffs could be announced as soon as next week. Adding to the geopolitical cocktail, the poisoning of a former Russian spy in England was laid at the feet of Russian President Putin by western intelligence agencies, leading to tit for tat sanctions between the UK and Russia.

The economic data was generally unable to offset much of the uneasiness emanating from geopolitics. European data, particularly out of Germany, softened, while US retail sales and housing starts missed expectations, leading many forecasters to revise their Q1 GDP estimates below 2%. Commentary from the BOJ and ECB largely held the current line of thinking suggesting neither Central Bank was rushing towards accelerating normalization time tables ahead of the FOMC and its expected rate hike next week. Rates moved lower for much of the week and yield curves flattened as the inflationary data held firm, keeping upward pressure on short rates, while buying at the long end pushed those yields lower. The US 2-10 year spread dipped back below 55 basis points bringing into view the decade lows seen in January. For the week the S&P500 lost 1%, the DJIA fell 1.6%, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.3%.

In corporate news, the week started off with the announcement that President Trump will block Broadcom’s attempted takeover of Qualcomm, citing national security grounds, leading Broadcom to abandon its bid. Optical names saw some strength Monday when Lumentum announced it would acquire Oclaro for $9.99/share in a $1.8B deal. Master Limited Partnership names fell on Thursday after FERC said it would no longer allow MLPs natural gas and oil pipelines to recover an income tax allowance in their cost of service. Toys R Us confirmed it would seek to wind down its US business and informed its 31K employees that it would liquidate or close all of its 790 stores.


SUNDAY 3/11
(US) White House expected to later today make announcement related to gun proposals – US press

MONDAY 3/12
QCOM White House announces President Trump will not allow Broadcom takeover of Qualcomm - press

TUESDAY 3/13
VOW3.DE Reports FY17 Net €11.4B v €11.4B prelim , adj op €17.0B v €17.0B prelim, Rev €230.7B v €230.7B prelim
HDS Reports Q4 $0.49 v $0.44e, Rev $1.18B v $1.16Be; Feb prelim net daily sales +11.7%
*(US) FEB CPI M/M: 0.2% V 0.2%E; CPI EX FOOD AND ENERGY M/M: 0.2% V 0.2%E; CPI NSA: 248.991 V 248.933E
*(US) Pres Trump has removed US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson; nominates current CIA Director Mike Pompeo to be new Secretary of State - press
CAT Reports Feb dealer statistics: Total Machines +33% y/y
(US) Business Roundtable CEO Q1 Economic Outlook Index at 118.6 v 96.9 q/q (highest level since 2002)
(BR) Reportedly Brazil is preparing response to US metals tariffs; tariffs could threaten deal between Boeing and Embraer - press
(CN) Trump admin reportedly considering imposing $60B in tariffs on Chinese goods - press (earlier reports said Trump wanted over $30B in tariffs)

WEDNESDAY 3/14
(US) JAN ADVANCE RETAIL SALES M/M: -0.1% V +0.3%E; RETAIL SALES EX AUTO M/M: 0.2% V 0.4%E
(US) FEB PPI FINAL DEMAND M/M: 0.2% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 2.8% V 2.8%E
(RU) UK PM May: Russia is yet to give satisfactory response to poisoning of Russian agent; Russia's action must be met with a 'robust response'

THURSDAY 3/15
(CH) SWISS NATIONAL BANK (SNB) LEAVES SIGHT DEPOSIT INTEREST RATE UNCHANGED AT -0.75%; AS EXPECTED
(NO) NORWAY CENTRAL BANK (NORGES) LEAVES DEPOSIT RATES UNCHANGED AT 0.50%; AS EXPECTED; brings forward its 1st potential rate hike
(US) MAR EMPIRE MANUFACTURING: 22.5 V 15.0E
(US) FEB IMPORT PRICE INDEX M/M: 0.4% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 3.5% V 3.5%E
(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 226K V 228KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.879M V 1.903ME
*(US) MAR PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK 22.3 V 23.0E
(US) FERC to ban tax allowance cost recovery in master limited partnership (MLP) pipeline rates
(US) Special Counsel Mueller subpoenas Trump Organization demanding documents about Russia - NYT
(UK) UK and EU officials agree to take part in 'intensive talks' to resolve Irish border issue - financial press
(US) JAN TOTAL NET TIC FLOWS: +$119.7B V -$122.5B PRIOR; NET LONG-TERM TIC FLOWS: $62.1B V $23.3B PRIOR
*(CN) PBOC CONDUCTS 1-YEAR CNY327B MEDIUM TERM LENDING FACILITY (MLF) AT UNCHANGED INTEREST RATE OF 3.25%

FRIDAY 3/16
(JP) Japan Lower and Upper Houses of Diet approve BoJ Gov Kuroda to additional 5-year term; also approve Amamiya and Wakatabe as Dep Governors
SHL.DE IPO opens for trade at €29.10/shr; IPO Price €28/shr
TIF Reports Q4 $1.67 v $1.63e, Rev $1.33B v $1.30Be
*(US) FEB HOUSING STARTS: 1.24M V 1.29ME; BUILDING PERMITS: 1.30M V 1.32ME
*(US) FEB INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 1.1% V 0.4%E; CAPACITY UTILIZATION: 78.1% V 77.7%E
*(US) MAR PRELIMINARY UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 102.0 V 99.3E
ZS IPO opens for trade at $27.50; priced at $16/shr


Sunday, March 11, 2018

Barrons weekend update

Barrons weekend update: positive feature on CCE 
Cover story: As employers scramble to rebuild their workforces in the wake of the recession, industries as varied as trucking, construction, retailing, fast food, oil drilling, technology, and manufacturing are having difficulty finding qualified help. 

Features: 1) Automation is revolutionizing industries from trucking to medicine and will eliminate jobs, but other positions will be created by the need to handle higher-level work that robots can’t perform; 2) Barron’s Best Fund Families of 2017 list is topped by Natixis Investment Managers, Vanguard Group, T. Rowe Price, TIAA Investments, and Fidelity Management & Research; 3) Cautious on MTW, CAT, OSK, NAV, TEX, GM, F: Companies are among those that could lose some percentage of earnings next year if they can’t pass along to customers a rise in steel prices that are the result of Trump administration tariffs; 4) Positive on CCE: Company’s success in the low-growth beverage business, where it has emphasized drinks with few or no calories, isn’t reflected in its stock price. 

Tech Trader: Companies such as IBM and ADSK are taking a cue from younger tech firms such as CRM by increasingly using financial jargon that isn’t found in traditional accounting—and the lingo is leading to sometimes startling effects, including share price pops. 

Trader: A heavy weighting in technology and a lack of exposure to the sectors such as utilities and staples have given the Nasdaq a boost, but the S&P 500 and the Dow are likely to climb higher as well; Consumer staples in the S&P 500 are expected to grow earnings by 11.4% this year, but investors need to be selective, given fundamental risks—STZ is better positioned than many others; “Good things may come in small packages, but small-company stocks still don’t have the heft necessary for their recent outperformance to continue.” 

Interview: Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research discusses insights from his long career, bitcoin—which he thinks face greater regulation—and why he’s still bullish. 

Advisor Ranking: Most of the advisors in Barron’s Top 1,200 Financial Advisors ranking “see a bull market that, in its ninth year, is getting long on the tooth, but they aren’t concerned about a bear market or a recession in the near future.” 

European Trader: Bullish investors say Portugal still offers a good deal, because the country is benefiting from a greatly improved economic backdrop and stocks are cheap relative to global peers. 

Asian Trader: Asia has been reducing its reliance on trade as it boosts domestic demand; intraregional trade accounts for 60% of all Asian trade and is growing faster than commerce with the rest of the world. 

Emerging Markets: “If lithium, the metal used in electric-car batteries, is the new oil, then Chile is pushing to be its Saudi Arabia,” a process that could prove difficult. 

Commodities: U.S. steel prices have already gotten a boost from the Trump administration’s proposed tariffs, which should keep prices high and domestic demand strong this year. 

Streetwise: The regime of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro will eventually falter as the country continues to deteriorate, leading to the possibility the military may intervene.

Markets Sanguine on Strong US Jobs Data, Cooling Trade Rhetoric, and North Korean Overture

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Markets Sanguine on Strong US Jobs Data, Cooling Trade Rhetoric, and North Korean Overture
Fri, 09 Mar 2018 16:05 PM EST

It was another eventful week for US markets culminating in a goldilocks Feb employment report that catalyzed investors’ willingness to move into risk assets, namely stocks. Stocks indices were already moving higher Monday on indications the President was walking back some of the tough trade rhetoric aimed at North American neighbors last week. By Thursday his decision to exempt both Canada and Mexico from the hotly debated steel and aluminum tariffs breathed a sense of relief into overall sentiment and offset protectionist concerns that had been exacerbated by the Tuesday announcement that Gary Cohn was leaving the White House. The BOJ and ECB held policy meetings this week and each central bank avoided spooking markets by indicating improving growth and inflation prospects have not yet moved up their timetables for removing accommodation.

Friday’s February employment report was the catalyst that accelerated equity markets, sending the NASDAQ composite back to all-time highs. The economy generated more than 300K job gains last month with a large boost from the retailing segment, but also showed solid gains across most sectors. The participation rate moved up three-tenths of a percent while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% as more people came off the sidelines to look for work. Wage gains moderated including a January revision lower, quelling some concerns about overheating, but total hours improved. The overall tone of the report was decidedly positive, giving the Fed plenty of scope for tightening this month even though the softness in wages suggested there is no particular urgency about doing so. Treasury yields rose modestly but still have not closed above 2.9% on a weekly basis since 2014. The Peso and Loonie rose late in the week basking in the President's decision to exempt them from steel and aluminum tariffs while the Yen softened on the surprise news that President Trump accepted an offer to meet with North Korea's Kim Jong Un. Doctor copper neared the February low before the move into risk assets pushed up a host of commodities late in the week. For the week the S&P500 gained 3.5%, the DJIA added 3.3%, and the Nasdaq climbed 4.2%.

In corporate news this week, Nordstrom shares were volatile on Monday after the board rejected an initial $50/share offer from the founding family and a subsequent report that said that the family was having trouble raising funds for an improved bid. Amazon was reported to be in early-stage discussions to offer a checking-account-like product with JP Morgan, aiming to reach new customers and to potentially shake up the financial industry. Shares of big box retailer Target slipped after it saw expenses rise and margins get squeezed in the fourth quarter. Reports that Toys R Us may liquidate its US operations weighed on toy-makers Hasbro and Mattel. Express Scripts confirmed it would be acquired by Cigna in a cash and stock deal worth $67B, as the healthcare industry continues its wave of consolidations.


SUNDAY 3/4
(CN) China Premier Li: Set 2018 GDP growth target around 6.5% (compared to 6.9% growth rate in 2017; as speculated); Leaves CPI at ~3%, to maintain 'prudent and neutral' monetary policy and 'proactive' fiscal policy in 2018 - China National People's Congress

MONDAY 3/5
*(EU) EURO ZONE MAR SENTIX INVESTOR CONFIDENCE: 24.0 V 30.9E
(UK) FEB SERVICES PMI: 54.5 V 53.3E (19th month of expansion)
AMZN Reportedly in talks with JPMorgan over checking accounts (targeting younger customers and those without bank accounts) - press
(US) FEB ISM NON-MANUFACTURING COMPOSITE: 59.5 V 59.0E
JWN Special Committee announces receipt and rejection of $50/shr indicative proposal from Nordstrom family; price proposed is inadequate
(AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) LEAVES CASH RATE TARGET UNCHANGED AT 1.50%; AS EXPECTED

TUESDAY 3/6
(KR) North and South Korea to hold 3rd summit in late April at the border; North Korea said to be open to denuclearize if regime safety is guaranteed
TGT Reports Q4 $1.37 v $1.39e, Rev $22.8B v $22.5Be
(US) JAN FACTORY ORDERS: -1.4% V -1.4%E
(CN) China regulators confirm lowering bad loan coverage requirement - Chinese press
(US) White House economic adviser Gary Cohn to resign (long speculated) - NYT

WEDNESDAY 3/7
DPW.DE Reports Q4 Net €837M v €841M y/y, EBIT €1.18B v €1.11B y/y, Rev €16.1B v €16.2Be; Raises dividend 9.5% to €1.15/shr
(UK) FEB HALIFAX HOUSE PRICES M/M: 0.4% V 0.4%E; 3M/Y: 1.8% V 1.6%E (slowest annual pace in 5 years)
(EU) EURO ZONE Q4 FINAL GDP Q/Q: 0.6% V 0.6%E; Y/Y: 2.7% V 2.7%E
(TR) TURKEY CENTRAL BANK (CBRT) LEAVES BENCHMARK REPURCHASE RATE UNCHANGED AT 8.00%; AS EXPECTED
(EU) EU Trade Min Malmstrom: Alarming that Trump is targeting allies with tariffs; EU will react if US enacts steel tariffs
*(US) FEB ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +235K V +200KE
XOM Guides initial FY18 Capex $24B ,+9.1% y/y; FY19 $28B +17% y/y - analyst meeting comments
(US) Q4 FINAL NONFARM PRODUCTIVITY: 0.0% V -0.1%E; UNIT LABOR COSTS: 2.5% V 2.1%E
(US) JAN TRADE BALANCE: -$56.6B V -$55.0BE (widest deficit since Oct 2008)
(CA) BANK OF CANADA (BOC) LEAVES INTEREST RATE UNCHANGED AT 1.25%; AS EXPECTED
(US) Conference Board Feb Total online job ads 4.72M v 4.90M m/m v 4.55M y/y; New ads 2.02M v 2.15M m/m v 1.95M y/y
(US) Atlanta Fed cuts Q1 GDP estimate to 2.8% from 3.5% on 3/1
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending March 3rd: 544.2K, +5.8%
(US) FEDERAL RESERVE BEIGE BOOK: EMPLOYMENT GREW AT MODERATE PACE SINCE PREVIOUS BEIGE BOOK
(US) White House spokesperson Sanders: there could be potential carve outs for Canada and Mexico, and could extend to other countries as determined on a national security basis
*(US) JAN CONSUMER CREDIT: $13.9B V $17.7BE
COST Reports Q2 $1.42* (ex $0.17 tax benefit) v $1.45e, Rev $33.0B v $32.7Be
(US) Lawmakers in Florida pass bill to raise legal age for buying rifles; The bill also imposes a 3-day waiting period for all gun sales and permits the arming of certain school personnel.
(CN) CHINA FEB TRADE BALANCE (CNY): +224.9B V -68.9BE
*(CN) CHINA FEB TRADE BALANCE (USD): +$33.7B V -$5.7BE

THURSDAY 3/8
ESRX Confirms to be acquired by Cigna in cash and stock deal worth $67B
(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 231K V 220KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.870M V 1.92ME
(EU) ECB’s Draghi: Reinvestment will help to deliver the appropriate stance - Prepared remarks
(EU) ECB’s Draghi: Decision on language regarding change on QE expansion was unanimous; not much discussion on other policy shifts - Q&A
(US) Fed reports Q4 Financial Accounts: Household Change in Net Worth: $2.076T v $1.645T prior
(US) Pres Trump steel and aluminum tariffs reportedly to take effect in 15 days, with Mexico and Canada exempted indefinitely - AP
(UK) UK govt officials reportedly don't see reaching a Brexit deal until next year - press
Toys R Us reportedly may liquidate US operations - CNBC
(KR) North Korea Leader Kim Jong Un said to invite US President Trump to meeting - Fox News
(KR) South Korea Envoy Chung-Eui-Yong: North Korea to 'refrain further missile tests'; US President Trump and North Korea leader Kim Jong Un to meet by May
(CN) CHINA FEB M2 MONEY SUPPLY Y/Y: 8.8% V 8.7%E; M1 MONEY SUPPLY M1 Y/Y: 8.5% V 11.0%E
*(CN) CHINA FEB CPI Y/Y: 2.9% V 2.5%E (highest reading since Dec 2013* but attributed to Lunar New Year distortions)
*(JP) BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) LEAVES INTEREST RATE ON EXCESS RESERVES (IOER) UNCHANGED AT -0.10%; AS EXPECTED

FRIDAY 3/9
UBSG.CH Publishes FY17 Annual Report: Reports final FY17 (CHF) Net 1.05 v 3.2B y/y (inc further CHF112M in provisions), Op 5.27B v 4.09B y/y, Op Income 29.1B v 28.3B y/y
(JP) BOJ Gov Kuroda: Reiterates view that expects inflation to move towards the 2% target; to make adjustments as needed - post rate decision press conference
*(UK) JAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 1.3% V 1.5%E; Y/Y: 1.6% V 1.9%E
*(CA) CANADA FEB NET CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT: 15.4K V +21.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 5.8% V 5.9%E
(US) FEB CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: +313K V +205KE


Tuesday, March 6, 2018

March-April 2018 Outlook: The Shape of Water

TradeTheNews.com March-April 2018 Outlook: The Shape of Water
Mon, 05 Mar 2018 23:21 PM EST

For two years, equity markets rose steadily, matching the longest streak ever without a correction. This extended one-way market was devoid of volatility and became very predictable. That period ended abruptly in February when global stock indices tumbled into a correction brought on by worries about higher interest rates and exacerbated by complacency (manifested in a complete malfunction in some of the financial instruments used to bet on volatility). Before last month, the markets were like a flood tide steadily inching higher and raising all boats, but now predicting the market is suddenly like describing the shape of water: amorphous and inconstant.

The prospect of a trade war has prolonged the volatility into March and may wash over market sentiment for months to come, potentially sending ripples through the delicate negotiations over NAFTA and the Brexit. Further, the threat of a wider trade war or even a shooting war with North Korea may alter the calculus of central banks as they plot their return to normalized policy. These political challenges along with concerns about rising interest rates will continue to churn markets for the foreseeable future.

Monetary Policy: “Get Out”

The Fed and other central banks have patiently waited for the moment when they could begin to get out of their extraordinarily accommodative stance and finally normalize monetary policy. After a decade of near- or sub-zero rates and an array of experimental quantitative easing measures, we are entering the era of 'quantitative tightening' (as dubbed by bond baron Jeffrey Gundlach). The Fed has started to shrink its balance sheet and has been raising rates for more than a year, while the ECB and BOE are starting to plan their own exit strategies. In the years ahead, the great unwind of government bond holdings by central banks will distort yield curves as central banks reduce their holdings of global sovereign bonds from the current 33% back toward a pre-crisis sovereign holdings that were less than half that percentage.

The Fed is leading the cycle and as its new Chairman Jay Powell takes office, he faces the task of removing accommodation in such a way as to lift inflation back to the 2% target level without extinguishing growth prospects (by raising rates too fast) or letting the economy overheat (by raising too slowly). In his first appearance before Congress, the plain speaking Fed Chair unnerved markets with his hawkish demeanor (relative to former Chair Yellen). Powell said he has no concern about the flattening yield curve and sees little chance of a recession in the next two years. Further, he stated that the data and fiscal stimulus enacted since December made him more confident that inflation is moving to target and that the Fed now must “strike a balance between avoiding an overheated economy and bringing PCE price inflation to 2 percent on a sustained basis.” The choice of the word “overheated” firmed up market expectations for three Fed rate hikes this year (as reflected in Fed funds futures), and got some market participants thinking about a four-hike year.

Better growth, higher wages, and firming oil prices could collaborate to spark faster inflation in 2018, presenting a challenge for Fed policy. GDP forecasts from the New York and Atlanta Fed Banks both see 3% or better growth in the first quarter. Average hourly earnings were better than expected in January, rising 2.9% year on year, matching the highest wage inflation since 2009. And there is growing demand for commodities: Copper and WTI crude prices have recently touched 3-year highs. Outside of exogenous events, a Fed overreaction to these improving trends could be the biggest risk to the building economic cycle. If inflation makes a sudden resurgence it could spook the Fed into raising rates faster to blunt it. Markets that have gotten so used to cheap credit could tighten up as borrowing rates hit milestones not seen in a decade.

Fed fund futures show the markets are anticipating rate hikes in March, June and then December. The persistent weakness in the greenback confirms that this rate path is baked in and at this point any monetary policy surprises will probably come from the other global central banks. For the most part, those other central banks are holding their policy steady, with only minor tweaks to lessen accommodation. The European Central Bank is debating whether it should clarify when rates will rise (likely not till 2019), the Bank of England could raise a second time in May, and the Bank of Japan remains committed to ultra-loose policy even though economic conditions have improved.

The demise of the deflationary threat to Japan has some market watchers thinking about when the Bank of Japan will start to unwind its extraordinary accommodation. A surprise cutback in Japanese government bond purchases in early January sparked some speculation that the BOJ was preparing its exit strategy. Contributing to that sense, there have also been a few BOJ policy board members questioning the necessity of the BOJ’s buying of exchange traded funds (ETFs) in the midst of a global rally in stocks. These notions were quashed in a recent speech by BOJ Governor Kuroda. Having secured a second 5-year term, Kuroda stood his ground, emphatically stating that the BOJ will continue “powerful monetary easing” to achieve its price goal. Though headline CPI hit its highest level in nearly three years at 1.4% in January, it remains well short of the target. Still Kuroda does have an eye toward the future, saying that easing will not continue once CPI reaches 2% in “stable manner,” and that normalization, once it begins, will be very gradual.

The BOE took back one 25 basis point cut last November, lifting the base rate to 0.50%. At the same meeting the BOE established that future rate hikes would be “gradual and limited,” now a familiar phrase from central banks. Then in February, after some better than expected growth data, the BOE took a more hawkish lean, hinting that more rate hikes may necessarily occur earlier and to “a greater extent” than envisioned just three months ago. That reckoning sent the pound sterling to its strongest level against the dollar since the June 2016 Brexit vote. In the days since the BOE’s February statement, the bank’s chief economist Haldane has put a finer point on the policy. Haldane noted the central bank is in “no rush” to raise rates, and that rates won't remotely go back to levels seen in the past, but any inflationary threat to the cost of living will be met with more rate hikes. With that said markets are now betting that the next 25 basis point hike will arrive in May.

In the euro zone, the ECB remains satisfied with the effects of its policy on improving growth and investment. As for normalization, the governing council is unanimous in its view of policy sequencing, saying that interest rates will not be hiked before the bond buying (QE) program is completed. The devil is always in the details as members are now debating whether to clarify the current interest rate guidance that rates will stay at current levels “well past” the end of the QE program, which would be in September at the earliest, and is likely to stretch to year end. Some board members see the “well past” language as too vague and worry that it will generate unwanted volatility. The counterargument is that setting a clearer date for rate liftoff in Europe could stifle the economic progress that’s been made, as industry and markets worry about a date certain for higher rates. Whatever the decision, the ECB has to be cautious about constructing its exit strategy because it must account for a scenario in which the Brexit is not well managed.

Brexit Talks: “Dunkirk”

It’s not certain that this is another Dunkirk moment for the UK, but many Britons already feel regrets about the referendum that began the nation’s 21st century retreat from continental Europe. Though not under direct fire from the Germans this time around, Britain looks indecisive at times and the exit talks are getting bogged down. This may have contributed to the February market correction that saw European bourses post their worst month since June 2016, when Brexit referendum shocked the world.

A Eurogroup meeting on March 12 will be a key moment for the Brexit negotiations. At this meeting the Europeans will set the guidelines for their transition-period discussions with the UK, aiming for a fully crafted withdrawal agreement by October or November. Both sides are still talking tough: the European’s chief negotiator has said that a transition is NOT a given if disagreements persist, while the UK Brexit Minister’s refrain continues to be that “no deal is better than a bad deal.” Substantial differences do remain on trade issues such as the arbitration mechanism, and the thorny Irish border issue is still not fully resolved.

Even the length of the Brexit transition period remains in dispute, and this may be the next milestone to watch for in the talks. So far, the Europeans have argued for the transition period to be as short as possible, favoring a 21 month stretch ending after 2020, which coincides with the end of a multi-year budget round, simplifying financial matters. On the other side of the table, the Britons are pushing for a more flexible Brexit implementation period of two-years or more to ensure they can make all the necessary preparations, including an overhaul of physical port infrastructure to cope with a dramatic increase in customs checks (work that has not begun yet, nearly two years after the referendum). The EU has signaled it may grant some flexibility on this issue, but that will require the UK to give some concessions such as withholding restrictions on free movement of EU citizens in the country during the transition. If dealmakers can’t forge an acceptable agreement on this timing issue, it will undoubtedly set back the even more complex trade talks that need to take place.

Trade War: “Phantom Thread”

The ‘invisible hand’ in economic theory that brings markets into equilibrium has been manipulated for the last ten years by central banks showering the global economy with massive stimulus packages. But just as that era is beginning to end, a very visible hand is tugging at a phantom thread that could unravel the entire global trade apparatus that has been painstakingly woven together over the last seven decades.

Since entering office over a year ago, President Trump has railed against “unfair” trade deals, but there was little action beyond lip service. In February, however, the Commerce Department issued its long awaited analysis on industrial metals trade, and the President pounced. Without much apparent consultation with advisors or Congressional leaders, Trump announced tariffs on steel and aluminum that were even higher than the Commerce Department’s minimum recommendations (at 25% and 10% versus the proposed 24% and 7.7%). Notably Trump chose a global tariff scheme over other proposals that would have set import quotas or used more targeted tariffs to punish problem producers. Commerce Secretary Ross defended the plan, saying the tariffs need to be global to ensure the worst offenders get squeezed and arguing the impact on consumer prices will be negligible, perhaps raisings costs by 1% on products from cans to cars.

President Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on industrial metal imports was a boon for the US steel and aluminum industry, but it has already sent a chill through in the broader markets on worries about higher basic materials costs and the threat of a trade war. The plan has been panned by many economists who equate tariffs with taxes, the WSJ described it as “folly”, and the stock market that Trump uses as his personal performance indicator dropped markedly. Shortly after President Trump cavalierly leaked his decision on tariffs, senior officials from the EU, Canada and other trading partners condemned the plan and assured there will be consequences if the US follows through. The EU indicated that it would impose duties on popular US brands such as Levi’s and Harley Davidson as well as on bourbon, a major export from Senate majority leader McConnell’s home state.

The new tariffs could be the last nail in the coffin of the North American Free Trade Agreement. The seventh round of NAFTA trade talks is underway in early March, and the negotiations remain tense amid reports the US is making onerous demands that Canada and Mexico seem unwilling to concede to. The imposition of a flat global tariff on steel and aluminum from the US’ two closest trading partners could be enough to extinguish hopes for a NAFTA renegotiation.

There may still be a glimmer of hope if the Trump administration shows some flexibility. Already industry voices ranging from Alcoa to the United Steelworkers Union are calling on the White House to exempt Canada from the new tariffs. An exemption would not be unprecedented as Canada and Mexico were spared from steel tariffs the last time the US resorted to the tactic in 2002, during the Bush administration. The auto industry is applying pressure too, worried about higher materials costs, but more importantly concerned that its longstanding and intricate cross border supply chain won’t be disrupted. Senior Republicans in Congress, including Speaker Ryan, as well as some major campaign donors are also urging the President to reverse or modify his decision.

But it may be hard to deter Trump as he pursues his vision of revitalizing the US steel industry. His initial reaction to the criticism was to tweet "trade wars are good, and easy to win." Trump may be gambling that corporations will absorb higher costs from their tax cut profits and that trading partners will fear losing access to the world’s biggest market. Unfortunately it appears other nations are ready to call his bluff, and Trump has responded to this by threatening to raise duties on automobiles shipped from Europe. A worst case scenario would be a trade war escalating to the point where the Trump administration withdraws from the WTO, an organization whose members largely comply with its rules, which are the cornerstone for most global trade agreements. Unraveling the WTO would lead to major disruptions in global trade that could set off a new recession.

Geopolitics: “Darkest Hour”

The darkest hour for the global economy and markets is not likely to come in disputes between the US and its allies, but in confrontations with enemies and rival powers. So far, President Trump has not applied that same bravado toward conventional wars as in trade wars, but he does seem bent on finding adversaries to measure himself against. Conflicts with China, North Korea, Iran and Venezuela all have the potential to disrupt orderly global markets.

So far China has taken a typically understated tone in response to the US tariff threat, responding that it may take measures to protect its own interests. The new metals tariffs won’t put a dent in the US trade deficit with China, which directly supplies less than 3% of US steel imports. Critics of the President’s plan say it should be more targeted, aimed squarely at China’s exports and its violations of intellectual property. Even though China does not want a trade war, if it finds itself singled out in this way, it is likely to retaliate. One option for China could be to slow purchases of US treasuries, which have already become less attractive assets as the face a bear market (with the 10-year yield approaching the a key 3.00% level and the 30-year testing major resistance at 3.22%). But whatever the response, it would invite further tit for tat escalations between the world’s two largest economies, an unwelcome scenario for the global outlook.

Tangling with China on trade is also counterproductive to contending with the nuclear threat from North Korea. The spectacular Winter Games in PyongChang brought with it a period of détente, as athletes and delegates from the North joined the festivities. Skeptics see the easing of tensions as the same old script from the North: conducting provocative tests of its WMD programs until sanctions are enacted, and then making conciliatory gestures in an effort to gain relief. The South Korean government is taking the lead for the moment, exploring talks with Pyongyang. But as the aura of the Olympic moment fades, chances for a political breakthrough dim along with it. Annual joint military exercises between the US and South Korea that were postponed as a good faith gesture for the Olympics will resume sometime after the Paralympic Games end on March 18. Meanwhile the Pentagon continues to refine plans for a potential military strike on the North’s weapons facilities.

The other remaining member of the once so-called “Axis of Evil,” Iran, will also be getting new attention from the White House in the months ahead. In mid-January President Trump signed another 90-day waiver on Iran sanctions, but stated that it would be the last time he will extend the waiver. To keep the US as a participant in the nuclear accord the White House is demanding that the deal be reopened to make the terms tougher and permanent with no sunset clause. Having set a countdown clock, President Trump says he will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal immediately if he believes a revised agreement is not within reach. US officials say they are working with European partners on new provisions for the nuclear deal but there are no signs that any real progress is being made or that any allies want to revisit the nuclear agreement at this time. The Trump Administration’s end game appears to be goading the Iranians into tearing up the treaty and restarting their weapons program, giving the US an opportunity to confront Iran, but Tehran is more likely to use the US move as a talking point and perhaps as an excuse to cheat around the edges of the accord.

Venezuela may also become a political flashpoint as long-simmering tensions could come to a head around the April 22 presidential election. The political opposition has already said it will not participate in what it considers a sham election after President Maduro reorganized the government to ensure he would hold on to power. The violent protests seen last year may flair up again around the election, which could lead to disruptions in Venezuela’s two million barrels-per-day supply of oil. Recent reports citing unnamed US officials say the White House is mulling sanctions aimed at pressuring Maduro. This could involve restricting insurance on oil shipments or even a complete US embargo on Venezuelan oil – a measure that would cause at least a short term oil market shock.

President Trump also imagines enemies within US borders. His original deadline to end DACA renewals for the so-called “Dreamers” was set for March 5, but a federal court has blocked that move, ordering renewals to continue. In the meantime Congress has made no visible progress on a broader immigration deal after the President torpedoed a bipartisan effort last month. The issue continues to be entangled with government funding measures and the latest stopgap spending bill will run out on March 22. If the administration and the Democrats can’t come to terms on immigration before then, a longer government shutdown may result. Estimates are that each week of a shutdown can shave a tenth of a percent off of quarterly GDP. That would squander much of any effect from the tax cut that is so far Trump’s signature political achievement.


CALENDAR
MARCH
4: China Caixin Services PMI
5: UK Services PMI; ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
6:
7: UK Annual Budget Release; China Trade Balance
8: ECB Policy Decision & Press Conf; BOJ Policy Decision
9: UK Manufacturing Production; US Payrolls & Unemployment

12: Eurogroup March Meeting
13: German ZEW Economic Sentiment; US CPI; China Industrial Production
14: US Retail Sales; US PPI
15: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
16: Euro Zone Final CPI; US Housing Starts & Building Permits; US Industrial Production; Preliminary Univ of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

19:
20: UK CPI & PPI
21: UK Claimant Count & Unemployment; US Existing Home Sales; FOMC Policy Statement & Press Conf
22: Euro Zone Manufacturing & Services PMIs; German Ifo Business Climate; UK Retail Sales; BOE Policy Statement
23: US Durable Goods Orders; US New Home Sales; US stopgap spending measure expires

26:
27: US Consumer Confidence
28: US Final Q4 GDP
29: German Preliminary CPI; UK Current Account; UK Final Q4 GDP; US Personal Income & Spending
30: Chicago PMI; China Manufacturing & Non-manufacturing PMIs

APRIL
1: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI
2: UK Manufacturing PMI; US ISM Manufacturing PMI
3: German Retail Sales; UK Construction PMI; China Caixin Service PMI
4: UK Services PMI; Euro Zone CPI Estimate; US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
5: ECB Minutes
6: US Payrolls & Unemployment

9:
10: German ZEW Economic Sentiment; US PPI; China CPI & PPI; China Trade Balance
11: UK Manufacturing Production; US CPI; FOMC Minutes
12: BOE Credit Conditions Survey; US Import Prices
13: Preliminary Univ of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

16: US Retail Sales
17: UK CPI & PPI; US Housing Starts & Building Permits; US Industrial Production; China Q1 GDP; China Industrial Production
18: UK Claimant Count & Unemployment; Euro Zone Final CPO
19: UK Retail Sales; Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

22: Venezuela presidential election
23: Euro Zone Flash Manufacturing & Services PMIs; US Existing Home Sales
24: German Ifo Business Climate; US Consumer Confidence; US New Home Sales
25:
26: ECB Policy Decision & Press Conf; Durable Goods Orders; BOJ Policy Decision
27: UK Prelim Q1 GDP; US Advance Q1 GDP

30: German Retail Sales; US Personal Income & Spending; Chicago PMI; China Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs; China Caixin Manufacturing PMI


Saturday, March 3, 2018

Barrons weekend update

Barrons weekend update: positive feature on IVZ; cautious on VMW 
Cover story: “Abetted by a robust job market, low interest rates, and beneficial demographics, the nation’s housing market has been enjoying a Goldilocks sort of recovery—neither too cold nor too hot (with the exception of several coastal markets), but just about right”—and the rebound is far from over. 

Features: 1) The high end of the housing market has excess inventory, but demand for less-expensive homes remains strong, and the Southeast is likely to see some of the largest price gains; 2) Strong Q4 results from some retailers, including KSS and M, have given investors hope, but a full rebound in the sector could take a few more quarters, says Brian Tunick of RBC Capital Markets; 3) Positive on IVZ: Company could be a long-term beneficiary of the next bear market because of the firm’s “bread-and-butter” factor investing strategy, and its penchant for buying weaker players during downturns; 4) Cautious on VMW: VMware investors aren’t happy about a potential deal with DVMT, because it would link a thriving, cash-rich company with a highly leveraged one, and the move is likely to generate strong opposition from shareholders; 5) Greg Fleming of Rockefeller Capital Management turned a small family office into a modern, independent financial services company, which for the first time will offer advisory services on corporate transactions. 

Tech Trader: The big battle between the U.S. and China won’t be over tariffs, but over the future of wireless technology—more specifically, so-called 5G—with Chinese giant Huawei poised to dominate the wireless network sector. 

Trader: Brian Nick of TIAA Investments sees the S&P 500 closing the year somewhere between 2800 and 2900 as earnings continue to rise but P/E ratios fall; Cautious on LB: Company reported better-than-expected Q4 earnings, but it still faces a number of problems, including changing shopping trends, and shares could drop further; Cautious on Spotify: Aside from greater competition from AAPL’s streaming service, Spotify’s new family plan poses a risk, and growth is coming at an increased cost. 

Interview: Former FDIC chairman Sheila Bair shares her views on China’s large debt, trouble spots in the U.S. financial system and economy, and what regulators should do about bitcoin. 

Profile: Bill Costello, co-manager of the Westwood SmallCap fund, looks for growth contributors that the market has underestimated (top 10 holdings: APOG, MCS, AIN, TWNK, CPE, INN, DEA, KMPR, FIX, SSB). 

European Trader: In Italy’s elections, the worst case scenario would be an anti-euro coalition government, but the most likely one will be a traditional coalition government with a weak mandate. 

Asian Trader: Investors remain skeptical about Japan’s slow-growth economy, but 25 years after its stock market bubble burst, things are looking up for Japanese equities. 

Emerging Markets: When Kenya, which faces a host of political problems, recently issued bonds, it had seven times the demand it needed—and it’s among several exotic sovereigns finding favor in the markets. 

Commodities: Many of the key drivers that led investors to be bullish on silver last year are still in play for 2018, especially rising inflationary pressures and a weaker U.S. dollar. 

Streetwise: For investors, the possibility that Chinese president Xi Jinping will extend his reign and modernize the country is a good thing, and he appears to be steering the Chinese economy in the right direction.

Friday, March 2, 2018

Hawkish Fed Chair and Trade War Scare Overshadow Solid Earnings and Data

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Hawkish Fed Chair and Trade War Scare Overshadow Solid Earnings and Data
Fri, 02 Mar 2018 16:04 PM EST

The week opened up with the spotlight clearly focused on Fed Chairman Powell’s first crack at testimony on Capitol Hill, but ended with markets fixated on President Trump’s trade policy. Equity markets came under pressure on Tuesday after Chairman Powell outlined his view that the economy has improved since December, increasing his confidence that inflation is moving back towards the 2% target level. A blowout February Richmond Fed reading and another extremely robust February ISM manufacturing report only bolstered that case. The US dollar firmed to better than a 1-month high though US Treasury yields never moved back to the recent highs and actually edged lower.

Indices continued to swing quite aggressively on an intraday basis and volatility picked up late in the week. President Trump’s Thursday announcement that he will introduce significant tariffs on all global imports of steel and aluminum next week set off a bout of risk off trading into Friday’s trading session. Condemnation was swift and loud from leaders around the world and many at home who feared the move could ignite a global trade war and cause the NAFTA renegotiation talks to collapse. Gold prices rose and bond yields lifted into the final bell on concerns that the trade policy will exacerbate inflation. The VIX briefly topped 25 on Friday before equity buyers stepped in through the European close. For the week the S&P dropped 2%, the DJIA lost 3%, and the Nasdaq slipped 1%.

In corporate news, this week’s Q4 earning reports were highlighted by improvement among bricks and mortar retailers. Macy’s shareholders were pleasantly surprised by an earnings beat and strong guidance including a return to same store sales growth. Electronics showroom Best Buy and denim specialist Gap also reported better than expected results for the holiday quarter. On the M&A front, Amazon expanded into another consumer sector, spending a $1B to acquire home security video company Ring.com, and putting immediate pressure on established home security names like ADT. Another household technology firm, Tivo, saw its shares rise sharply after management announced it would explore strategic alternatives.


SUNDAY 2/25
(CN) Communist Party has moved to repeal language from the constitution that says the head of state “shall serve no more than two consecutive terms”, which would allow China President Xi to stay in power indefinitely - Chinese press (as speculated)

MONDAY 2/26
SPB Spectrum Brands Holdings to combine with HRG Group in deal valued at $10B
*(US) JAN NEW HOME SALES: 593K V 647KE
(US) FEB DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY: 37.2 V 30.0E
(ZA) South Africa Pres Ramaphosa: confirms naming Nhlanhla Nene as South Africa Fin Min
FIT Reports Q4 -$0.02 v -$0.00e, Rev $571M v $587Me
STAN.UK Reports FY17 adj Pretax $3.0B v $3.1Be; Op $14.3B v $13.8B y/y; Resumes dividend of $0.11

TUESDAY 2/27
BAS.DE Reports final Q4 Adj €1.29 v €1.43e, EBIT €1.86B v €1.75Be, Rev €16.1B v €16.0Be
AAPL Said to be launching primary care clinics called AC Wellness for employees this spring - CNBC
(DE) GERMANY FEB CPI SAXONY M/M: +0.4% V -0.8% PRIOR; Y/Y: 1.3% V 1.4% PRIOR
(EU) EURO ZONE FEB FINAL BUSINESS CLIMATE INDICATOR: 1.48 V 1.47E; CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (FINAL): 0.1 V 0.1E
(DE) German federal administrative court judge: German cities ordered to develop diesel ban further; refuses to overturn diesel car bans
JPM Guides FY18 core loan growth 6-7%; Medium-term pretax $44-47B, ROTCE ~17% - ahead of analyst day
M Reports Q4 $2.82 v $2.69e, Rev $8.67B v $8.71Be
(DE) GERMANY FEB CPI M/M: 0.5% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 1.4% V 1.5%E
(US) Fed Chair Powell text of testimony released: Must strike balance to avoid overheating, lift inflation
*(US) JAN PRELIMINARY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: -3.7% V -2.0%E; DURABLES EX TRANSPORTATION: -0.3% V +0.4%E
(US) FEB RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: 28 V 15E (second highest value on record)
(US) FEB CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 130.8 V 126.5E
(US) Atlanta Fed cuts Q1 GDP estimate to 2.6% from 3.2% on 2/16
(US) Fed Chair Powell: IOER's place in long run operating framework has not been decided but it has served us well since crisis and will continue to use it - testimony to House Financial Services Committee
(US) Aluminum Association applauds Commerce Dept final ruling on aluminum foil import duties of up to 106.1% from China
AMZN To acquire home security video company Ring.com, valued at over $1B - press
TIVO Reports Q4 $0.15 v $0.39e, Rev $214.2M v $212Me; plans to explore all alternatives to maximize shareholder value

WEDS 2/28
BAYN.DE Reports Q4 Net €148M (adj) v €745Me, EBITDA adj €1.78B v €1.80Be, Rev €8.60B v €8.88Be; aims to close Monsanto transaction in Q2
(DE) GERMANY MAR GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 10.8 V 10.9E
(FR) FRANCE Q4 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.6% V 0.6%E; Y/Y: 2.5% V 2.4%E
(FR) FRANCE FEB PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: -0.1% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 1.2% V 1.4%E
(DE) GERMANY FEB UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -22K V -15KE; UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS RATE: 5.4% V 5.4%E
(DE) GERMANY SELLS €2.413B VS. €3.0B INDICATED IN 0.5% FEB 2028 BUNDS; AVG YIELD: 0.67% V 0.69%% PRIOR; BID-TO-COVER: 1.2X (technically uncovered) V 1.5X PRIOR
(EU) EU published first draft of Brexit treaty: Northern Ireland could stay within customs union; Transitions period to end on Dec 31st 2020
VRX Reports Q4 GAAP $1.45 v $0.99e, Rev $2.16B v $2.18Be
(IN) INDIA Q4 GDP Y/Y: 7.2% V 7.0%E
DKS Immediately ending sales of all assault-style rifles in its stores- NYT
(US) Q4 PRELIMINARY GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: 2.5% V 2.5%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 3.8% V 3.6%E
(US) Q4 PRELIMINARY GDP PRICE INDEX: 2.3% V 2.4%E; CORE PCE Q/Q: 1.9% V 1.9%E
(US) Nevada reports Jan casino gaming Rev $1.02B, -2.1% y/y; Las Vegas strip rev $554.8M, -8.9% y/y
(US) JAN PENDING HOME SALES M/M: -4.7% V +0.5%E; Y/Y: -1.7% V -1.8% PRIOR (lowest M/M in more than three years)
CA.FR Reports FY17 Adj Net €773M v €1.03B y/y, EBITDA €3.64B v €3.59Be, Gross Rev €88.2B v €85.7B y/y; Cuts dividend 34% to €0.46/shr
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Feb 24th: 528.4K carloads and intermodal units, +2.8% y/y
(US) Special Counsel Mueller reportedly investigating whether Pres Trump was aware of DNC hack and whether he was involved in its release - NBC News
CRM Reports Q4 $0.35 v $0.33e, Rev $2.85B v $2.81Be

THURS 3/1
ABI.BE Reports Q4 $1.04 v $0.98e, EBITDA $6.19B v $6.03Be, Rev $14.6B v $14.5Be
(UK) FEB MANUFACTURING PMI: 55.2 V 55.0E (19th month of expansion but lowest since Jun)
BBY Reports Q4 $2.42 v $2.04e, Rev $15.4B v $14.5Be; Raises Quarterly dividend 32.4% to $0.45 from $0.34 (indicated yield 2.48%)
(BR) BRAZIL Q4 GDP Q/Q: 0.1% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 2.1% V 2.5%E (4th straight quarter of growth)
*(US) JAN PERSONAL INCOME: 0.4% V 0.3%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: 0.2% V 0.2%E
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 210K (lowest since 1969) V 225KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.93M V 1.92ME
KR To stop selling guns to people younger than 21 via its Fred Meyer locations (3rd major retailer to tighten policies) - press
(US) Fed Chair Powell: there's no strong evidence of a decisive move higher in wages - Senate testimony
(US) Fed's Dudley (dove, FOMC voter): trade protectionism is not the answer
(US) Atlanta Fed raises Q1 GDP estimate to 3.5% from 2.6% on 2/27
(US) Pres Trump: US will institute tariffs next week; will impose 25% tariffs on steel and 10% on aluminum imports - comments at White House
(EU) EU's Juncker: EU will "react firmly" to Trump administration tariffs; will bring forward countermeasures
GPS Reports Q4 $0.61 v $0.59e, Rev $4.78B v $4.68Be

FRI 3/2
(US) White House Economic Advisor Cohn said to be again rumored to be on the brink of leaving the White House - financial press
(US) President Trump tweets "trade wars are good, and easy to win"
(CA) CANADA DEC GDP M/M: 0.1% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 3.3% V 3.3%E
(UK) PM May: Agreement with EU must respect referendum; listening carefully to the many voices on future - Brexit speech
EU said to target duties on up to $3.5B on imports for trade retaliation following Trump announcement on tariffs - press

Sunday, February 25, 2018

Barrons weekend summary

Barrons weekend summary: cautious on advertising industry 
Cover story: Barron’s 2018 Energy Roundtable featured four experts discussing oil, natural gas, and other energy stocks, as well as MLPs,with three of the four offering picks: Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets,Charles Robertson of Cowen (APC, NBL), John Dowd of Fidelity Select EnergyPortfolio (EOG, HAL, PXD) and Gregory Reid of Salient MLP Complex (GEL, TRGP,SHLX). 

Features: 1) In a previously unreported legal fight, TCI Fund Management andentities of TPG-Axon Management have sued private equity firm IREO, claiming ithasn’t been a proper guardian of their capital; 2) AMZN: Story says that economic experts, city planners, and laborleaders warn there may be a downside for the city in which the retailer buildsits second headquarters, partly because of the subsidies offered and housingshortages; 3) Cautious on Dentsu, IPG, OMC, PUB.FR, WPP, HAV.FR: Advertising giants are strugglingto improve their standing with investors, many of whom believe the agencies arelikely to be the next victims of Internet disruption.

Tech Trader: Positive on MSFT, INTC, NVDA, MU, GOOGL, AMZN: Microsoft is developing a practical quantum computer that could arrive in five years,affecting the chip, software, and cloud computing sectors. 

Trader: Positive on AABA: Company could get a boost Tuesday when it announces astrategic update related to its stakes in BABA and Yahoo Japan, and RobSanderson of MKM Partners expects aggressive action; Positive on TWX: Shares ofthe media giant look attractive, and its strong profit outlook could limitdownside if antitrust authorities scuttle the deal with T; Positive on Stelco Holdings:After emerging from bankruptcy in November, the Canadian steel company could beone of the more compelling plays in North American steel. 

Profile: Edward Silverstein, manager of the MacKay Shields MainStay Convertiblefund, offers investors the potential upside of owning stock with less risk byrelying on convertible securities (top 10 holdings: DISH, DHR, MCHP, WFT, BAC,LRCX, AL, NICE, PCLN, XPO); James Moriarty of Moriarty & Co. sees flat performance ahead for U.S. stocks this year, but plenty of opportunity in overseas markets. 

Follow-Up: If in its initial public offering Dropbox seeks a valuation in line with its private-market one, the number would be about nine times trailing sales; it is also likely to emphasize certain non-GAAP financials. 

European Trader: Bridgewater Associates’ move to increase its short positions inEuropean equities in recent weeks could founder—and might not be what it seems.

Asian Trader: Howard Wang of JPM Asset Management in Hong Kong says investorswill likely shift back toward growth areas like tech, healthcare, and consumerdiscretionary stocks this year ( Positive on Haier, Jiangsu Hengrui, ChinaResources Phoenix, Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical). 

Emerging Markets: Investors are looking for more gains in South Africa now thatnewly elected president Cyril Ramaphosa has released a budget blueprintfocusing on restoring fiscal discipline. 

Commodities: An upcoming election in Venezuela and the possibility of U.S.sanctions could send the country’s energy sector into a tailspin. 

Streetwise: Many school pension funds own stock in gun companies, as doindexing giants Vanguard and BLK, which are “treading carefully” in the wake ofthe recent school shooting in Florida.

Friday, February 23, 2018

Markets Mixed, Treasury Yields Probe Highs, Ahead of FedTestimony Next Week

TradeTheNews.com WeeklyMarket Update: Markets Mixed, Treasury Yields Probe Highs, Ahead of FedTestimony Next Week
Fri, 23 Feb 2018 16:03 PM EST

The holiday shortened trading week was largely uneventful in terms of major market moving headlines.Investors did return to find volatility holding near the higher levels seen over the last month. Intraday swings of 100 points or more in the Dow continued, though volumes retreated back to more normal levels and indices largely moved sideways. Earnings season wound down with retailers taking center stage, and overall the positive tone from executives extended despite a few key misses. The US 10-year yield hit a 4-year high above 2.94% after the release of Wednesday’s FOMC minutes led to speculation about the tone Fed Chair Powell may take when he testifies on Capitol Hill early next week. The Greenback bounced, garnering modest momentum when stocks sold off midweek, and then ebbed when equity buyers reemerged on Friday.

In corporate news thisweek, Rite-Aid announced it would merge with Albertsons in a cash-and-stockdeal, aiming to deliver $375M in cost synergies. Qualcomm raised its offer forNXP Semiconductor to $127.50/share, which caused Broadcom to lower its Qualcommoffer to $79/share if the higher bid goes through. Blue Buffalo confirmed itwould be acquired by General Mills for $40/share in an $8B deal in whichGeneral Mills would be paying 22x EBITDA for the natural pet food company.China's Geely disclosed a 9.7% stake in Daimler worth around $9B, making Geely’sChairman Li Shufu the biggest Daimler shareholder. Walmart weighed on the Dow,falling more than 9% following a disappointing earnings report with lowered revenueguidance early in the week. For the week the DJIA gained 0.4%, the S&P500added 0.6%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.4%.


MONDAY 2/19
(EU) Spanish EconomyMinister de Guindos chosen as ECB vice president to succeed Vitor Constancio;effective in May - financial press
(HK) Macau Feb 19thGolden Week visitors from China +12.3% y/y
HSBA.UK Reports FY17 Adjpretax $20.99B v $19.3B y/y, Adj Rev $51.5B v $50.2B y/y; To issue $5.0-7.0B intier 1 capital in H1

TUESDAY 2/20
BHP.AU Reports H1 Net$2.0B v $3.2B y/y; underlying Pretax $4.05B v $3.24B y/y, Rev $21.78B v $18.8By/y
(DE) GERMAN FEB ZEWCURRENT SITUATION SURVEY: 92.3 V 93.9E; EXPECTATIONS SURVEY: 17.8 V 16.0E
HD Reports Q4 adj $1.69v $1.62e, Rev $23.9B v $23.7Be; Raises Quarterly dividend 15.7% to $1.03 from$0.89 (indicated yield 2.2%)
RAD Confirms merger withAlbertsons in cash and stock deal; To deliver $375M in cost synergies
(HK) Macau Feb 20thGolden Week visitors from China +6.5% y/y

WEDNESDAY 2/21
ORA.FR Reports FY17EBITDA €12.8B v €12.8Be, Rev €41.1B v €41.1Be
LLOY.UK Reports Q4 PBT£780M v £877Me, Underlying Profit £1.93B v £1.79B y/y, Total Income £4.63B v£4.35B y/y; announces strategic update and £1B buyback, to invest £3B instrategy
(FR) FRANCE FEB PRELIMINARYMANUFACTURING PMI: 56.1 V 58.0E (17th month of expansion)
(DE) GERMANY FEBPRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 60.3 V 60.5E (38th month of expansion)
(EU) EURO ZONE FEBPRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 58.5 V 59.2E (55th month of expansion)
(UK) DEC AVERAGE WEEKLYEARNINGS 3M/Y: 2.5% V 2.5%E; WEEKLY EARNINGS (EX BONUS) 3M/Y: 2.5% V 2.4%E
*(UK) JAN JOBLESS CLAIMSCHANGE: -7.2K V +6.2K PRIOR; CLAIMANT COUNT RATE: 2.3% V 2.4% PRIOR
*(UK) DEC ILOUNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.4% V 4.3%E
SLCA Reports Q4 $0.52 v$0.55e, Rev $360.6M v $360Me; See's February pickup in business activity
(US) President Trumpsaid to be open on raising the purchase age for some guns - financial press
(US) Association ofAmerican Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Feb 17th: 540Kcarloads and intermodal units, +3.1% y/y
(CN) According to ChinaNational Tourism Administration (CNTA) Lunar New year tourism totaled CNY475B,+12.6% y/y - Xinhua

THURSDAY 2/22
DTE.DE Reports Q4 adjNet +€1.3B v -€2.1B y/y, adj EBITDA €5.0B v €5.3Be, Rev €19.2B v €19.2Be
BARC.UK Reports Q4 Net-£1.29B v +£99M y/y, adj Pretax £93M v £330M y/y, Core Net Rev £5.02B v £4.99By/y
BA.UK Reports FY17 EPS43.5p v 42.3pe, adj EBITA £2.03B v £2.0Be, Rev £19.6B v £19.5Be
*(FR) FRANCE FEBBUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 109 V 110E; MANUFACTURING CONFIDENCE: 112 V 113E
(DE) GERMAN FEB IFOBUSINESS CLIMATE: 115.4 V 117.0E; CURRENT ASSESSMENT: 126.3 V 127.0E
(UK) Q4 PRELIMINARY GDPQ/Q: 0.4% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 1.4% V 1.5%E (slowest annual pace since 2012)
*(EU) ECB ACCOUNT OF THEMONETARY POLICY MEETING (JAN MINUTES): Broadly agree that policy stance wasappropriate; premature to alter policy mix
(JP) JAPAN JAN NATIONALCPI Y/Y: 1.4% V 1.3%E (Highest since March 2015*); CPI EX-FRESH FOOD (CORE)Y/Y: 0.9% V 0.8%E
(US) US Treasury SecMnuchin: President Trump's policies will raise wages without inflation

FRIDAY 2/23
(DE) GERMANY Q4 FINALGDP Q/Q: 0.6% V 0.6%E; Y/Y: 2.9% V 2.9%E; GDP NSA Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.3%E
RBS.UK Reports Q4 Net-£579M v -£4.44B y/y, Adj Op £512M v £1.25B y/y, Rev £3.06B v £3.22B y/y;Affirms Medium-term outlook
VOW3.DE Reports prelimFY17 net €11.4B, adj op profit €17.0B v €17.3Be, Rev €230.7B v €231Be
DAI.DE China's Geelyreportedly building nearly 10% stake in Daimler worth $9B - press
(US) Weekly Baker HughesUS Rig Count: 978 v 975 w/w (+0.3%)


Saturday, February 17, 2018

Barrons weekend summary

Barrons weekend summary: cautious cover story on GE; positive feature on GOOGL, LRCX, C, CMI and REITS 
Cover story: After a series of problems, GE has been attracting attention fromvalue-oriented investors; It has strong competitive positions in some sectors,and trades for a seemingly reasonable 15 times projected 2018 earnings—but the stockisn’t a bargain and could drop another 10% or more. 

Features:1) Positive on GOOGL, LRCX, C, CMI:As the bull market draws to an end, investors should consider these fourstocks—financials will benefit from rising interest rates, industrials will geta boost from inflation, and tech still looks attractive; 2) Positive on BXP, DEI, SLG, SPG, TCO, VNQ, RQI: Fundamentals in the REIT sector aregenerally healthy, and the sector could benefit from strong economic activitythat boosts demand for apartments, office, and retail space; 3) Cautious on AMTD, SCHW, MS, MerrillLynch: Vanguard is becoming a vertically integrated business that needs nooutside distributors, raising questions about its objectivity—though the dynamicsof the industry may make neutrality impossible. 

Tech Trader: “Tech firms, long known for plowing their wealth into research anddevelopment, have increasingly become shining examples of enterprises returningmoney to shareholders”—and there’s evidence the trend is shifting investorallegiances. 

Trader: More volatility wouldn’t be a surprise, or out of the ordinary, saysInstinet’s Frank Cappelleri, and doesn’t have to be a death knell for the bullmarket; RBC Capital Markets strategist Lori Calvasina worries too manyinvestors are betting on a weak dollar, and that stock prices in sectors suchas healthcare and consumer discretionary are rising with the dollar’s value;Positive on BAC, COF, JPM: After reaching highs last summer, some financial-sectorpreferred shares are now down to levels that make them well-suited forincome-oriented investors, according to Ulland Investment. 

Interview: Jay Bowen of Atlanta-based Bowen Hanes, which oversees the TampaFire and Police Pension fund, talks about where stocks are headedpost-correction and the impending Fed overhaul (picks: ATI, ABB, IBM). 

Follow-Up: A recent boost in UA shares after strong Q4 earnings may havethwarted short sellers, but it’s hard to tell whether the revenue upside marksa real turning point for the apparel company. 

European Trader: Positive on G4S, Loomis, Prosegur Compania de Seguridad,BCO: The rush to cash during recent market turmoil may have helped createbargains in the cash-handling industry, where some companies are moving intohigh-end services. 

Asian Trader: Investors ready to look beyond big Asian tech companies may findrelative bargains at much lower entry points, including Panasonic, Line, andFanuc. 

Emerging Markets: Latin America has begun to outperform amid market turmoil,offering a heavily commodity-linked investor proposition prone to politicalupheaval and supported by free-spending consumers. 

Commodities: “After years of decline, milk prices look ready to rally—morefrigid winters, lower production in some parts of the world, and more Chinesedemand will lead to higher prices.” 

Streetwise: As sexual harassment claims continue to rattle Hollywood and otherindustries, the structures that upheld and protected serial abusers arebreaking down—making finance’s 1990s-era detente look dated.

Friday, February 16, 2018

Markets Rebound As Inflation Fears Ease

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Markets Rebound As Inflation Fears Ease 
Fri, 16 Feb 2018 16:12 PM EST

Stock indices began the week riding the momentum of the sharp technical reversal of the S&P 200-day moving average last Friday. Stock markets gapped up on Monday and rode the winning streak to 6 sessions by week’s end. The narrative that inflation concerns and higher rates were at theroot of the extreme volatility experienced earlier this month largely dissipated. The US 10-year yield reached a fresh 4-year high midweek in the midst burgeoning US Treasury coupon sales and a string of significantly hotter than expected inflation readings, headlined by the Jan CPI data. The US Dollar stayed soft, perplexing some market watchers by not reacting to the move up in Treasury yields, but leading others to theorize it may be signaling are calibration to higher than expected future inflation levels. By Friday,Treasury yields backed off the recent highs, the dollar bounced after making fresh multiyear lows, and the VIX retreated back below 20 while stocks made back more than half of the recent losses off the top. For the week, the S&P500 and DJIA each rebounded 4.3% and the Nasdaq rose 5.3%.

In corporate news this week, US metals producers rallied on Commerce Department recommendations for actions to protect US steel and aluminum makers as part of its Section 232 probe, though no final decision has been made yet by President Trump. Investors cheered Chipotle for naming former Taco Bell CEO Brian Niccol as its new chief,noting his expertise in digital technologies, restaurant ops and branding.Cisco Systems lifted on a bottom-line beat and shareholder return plans. Fossil Group surged 90% after earnings came in higher than anticipated, with the company pointing to improved wearable sales. AmerisourceBergen shares rose on a report that Walgreens was in early stage talks to acquire the drug wholesaler.IT solutions provider CSRA also popped on news it would be acquired by General Dynamics for $40.75/share in cash.


MONDAY 2/12
HEIA.NL Reports FY17 Net(beia) €2.25B v €2.10B y/y, Op €3.76B v €3.65Be, Rev €21.9B v €20.8B y/y;Raises dividend 9.7% to €1.47/shr
CSRA To be acquired byGeneral Dynamics for $40.75/shr valued at $9.6B inc debt
ABC Walgreens said to bein early stage talks to acquire the company - US financial press

TUESDAY 2/13
*(UK) JAN CPI M/M: -0.5%V -0.6%E; Y/Y: 3.0% V 2.9%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 2.7% V 2.6%E
CAT Reports Jan dealerstatistics: Total Machines +34% y/y
(US) Pres Trump: Willprobably not end up having a 'reciprocal tax'
BIDU Reports Q4 $2.29 v$2.05e, Rev $3.62B v $3.56Be; Submits F-1 for iQIYI Video unit IPO
CMG Names Taco Bell CEOBrian Niccol as new CEO, effective March 5th; Chairman, CEO and Founder SteveElls, will become executive chairman
FOSL Reports Q4 $0.64adj v $0.39e, Rev $921M v $890Me

WEDNESDAY 2/14
TKA.DE Reports Q1 Net€91M v -€6M y/y, adj EBIT €444M v €438Me, Rev €9.82B v €10.2Be
ACA.FR Reports Q4underlying Net €878M v €737Me, Rev €4.65B v €4.65Be
*(DE) GERMANY Q4PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.6% V 0.6%E; Y/Y: 2.9% V 3.0%E; GDP NSA Y/Y:2.3% V 2.2%E
*(SE) SWEDEN CENTRALBANK (RIKSBANK) LEAVES REPO RATE UNCHANGED AT -0.50%; AS EXPECTED; maintainsrepo rate path outlook
(IT) ITALY Q4PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.3% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 1.6% V 1.7%E
(EU) EURO ZONE Q4PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.6% V 0.6%E; Y/Y: 2.7% V 2.7%E
(US) JAN CPI M/M: 0.5% V0.3%E; CPI EX FOOD AND ENERGY M/M: 0.3% V 0.2%E; CPI INDEX NSA: 247.867 V247.551E
*(US) JAN ADVANCE RETAILSALES M/M: -0.3% V +0.2%E; RETAIL SALES EX AUTO M/M: 0.0% V 0.5%E
(US) Treasury SecMnuchin: IRS will ban hedge fund tax loophole on carried interest
(US) Association ofAmerican Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Feb 10th: 519.5Kcarloads and intermodal units, +1.6% y/y
AMAT Reports Q1 $1.06 v$0.97e, Rev $4.20B v $4.10Be; Raises Quarterly dividend 100% to $0.20 from$0.10 (indicated yield 1.54%); increases share repurchase authorization by$6.0B (11% of market cap)
CSCO Reports Q2 $0.63 v$0.59e, Rev $11.9B v $11.8Be; Raises Quarterly dividend 13.8% to $0.33 from$0.29 (indicated yield 3.14%); approves $25B stock buyback increase (12% ofmarket cap)
(JP) Japan Fin Min Aso:JPY currency (Yen) strength was NOT strong enough to require intervention -parliament

THURSDAY 2/15
AIR.FR Reports FY17 Net€2.87B v €995M y/y, Adj EBIT €4.25B v €4.00Be, Rev €67.0B v €67.1Be
SU.FR Reports FY17 Net€2.15B v €2.10Be, adj EBITA €3.65B v €3.66Be; Rev €24.7B v €24.8Be
NESN.CH Reports FY17(CHF) Net 7.2B v 8.5B y/y, Op 14.7B v 13.3Be, Rev 89.8B v 90.1Be; Raisesdividend 2.2% to CHF2.35/shr
(ZA) South Africaformally declares Ramaphosa as its new President - financial press
(US) FEB EMPIREMANUFACTURING: 13.1 V 18.0E
(US) JAN FINAL PPIDEMAND M/M: 0.4% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 2.7% V 2.4%E
(US) FEB PHILADELPHIAFED BUSINESS OUTLOOK: 25.8 V 21.6E
(US) JAN INDUSTRIALPRODUCTION M/M: -0.1% V +0.2%E; CAPACITY UTILIZATION: 77.5% V 78.0%E
(US) Treasury to sell$$28B 2-year, $35B 5-year and $29B 7-year notes
(US) DEC TOTAL NET TICFLOWS: -$119.3B V +$33.5B PRIOR; NET LONG-TERM TIC FLOWS: $27.3B V $57.5B PRIOR
PNB.IN Notifies exchangeabout fraud equal to INR113.9B; India Finance Ministry discloses probe intoformer bank officials; other Indian banks comment on exposures

FRIDAY 2/16
*(UK) JAN RETAIL SALES(EX AUTO/FUEL) M/M: 0.1% V 0.6%E; Y/Y: 1.5% V 2.4%E
DE Reports Q1 $1.31 v$1.16e, Total Net Sales and Rev $6.91B v $6.40Be
(US) JAN IMPORT PRICEINDEX M/M: 1.0% V 0.6%E; Y/Y: 3.6% V 3.0%E
*(US) JAN HOUSINGSTARTS: 1.326M V 1.234ME; BUILDING PERMITS: 1.396M V 1.300ME
(US) Atlanta Fedmaintains Q1 GDP estimate at 3.2%, unchanged from Feb 14th
GOOGL Waymo unitreportedly developing ride hailing service to directly compete with Uber;approved to operate as transportation network company in Arizona - Quartz Media
(US) Commerce Deptformerly releases steel and aluminum recommendations on official website,confirming earlier reports
(US) Weekly Baker HughesUS Rig Count: 975 v 975 w/w (unchanged w/w)