Hopes for vaccines and government deals fend off concerns about new global pandemic wave

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Hopes for vaccines and government deals fend off concerns about new global pandemic wave

Fri, 16 Oct 04:17 PM EST/09:17 PM GMT

Stocks rose out of the gate this week looking past rising coronavirus infection rates globally. Stay-at-home stocks continued to outperform the broader market, helped in part by fresh lockdown measures in several European nations intended to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 hotspots. Earnings season kicked off, with most of the mega banks topping earnings estimates, albeit largely on lower provisions for loan losses rather than an improving lending landscape. The US dollar moved up against the Chinese Yuan after officials in China took note of the recent strength when the PBOC cut the its FX risk reserve ratio, effectively making it easier to short the Yuan.

By midweek investors risk appetite receded. Worries surrounding forced closures in Europe alongside continued stalemates on both the Brexit and US fiscal stimulus fronts weighed on sentiment. The German 10-year government yield fell to its lowest level since March amid a chorus of ECB officials highlighting their growing concerns about too-low inflation. US inflation data largely met expectations, but CPI last month was clearly buoyed by rising used car prices and not much else. Stocks rebounded into the tail end of the week helped in part by hopes that a US coronavirus vaccine approval was getting closer. US economic data was also positive, headlined by a strong September retail sales report. For the week, the S&P gained 0.2%, the DJIA edged up 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.8%.

In corporate news this week, as earnings season kicked off, United Airlines reported a wider than anticipated Q3 profit loss, though it was able to reduce its cash burn to $25M/day from $40M/day in Q2. Delta reiterated it expects to reach breakeven by spring 2021, and noted it’s seeing ‘good bookings’ for Thanksgiving and Christmas. Fastly cut its outlook, citing regulatory pressure on its biggest customer, TikTok, as a headwind. Hewlett Packard Enterprises shares jumped after providing upbeat guidance at its analyst day. Both J&J and Lilly halted key coronavirus studies this week due to trial safety concerns. Traton reached an agreement in principle to acquire the remaining shares of Navistar at $44.50/share, though the deal is still subject to finalization of due diligence. Disney announced a major strategic reorganization of its media and entertainment businesses with the aim of bolstering its streaming platforms, Disney+, ESPN+, and Hulu. The FCC said it will 'move forward' on Section 230 rulemaking changes and Republicans in Congress called for big tech CEOs to testify after Twitter blocked recirculation of a New York Post article regarding Hunter Biden's Ukraine connections.

SUN 10/11
(CN) China PBOC to cut the FX risk reserve ratio to 0% [from 20%], effective from Monday (Oct 12th); The move relates to certain FX forwards trading by financial firms - financial press
(CN) China President Xi to visit Shenzhen this week [on Oct 14th]; Shenzhen to ease foreign investment entry limit related to high technology; China to support digital yuan trial in Shenzhen - SCMP

MON 10/12
(UK) Strict national lockdown may be the next step taken by UK Government - press
(US) Reportedly White House seeks Congressional approval for three separate arms packages to Taiwan
DIS Announces strategic reorganization of media and entertainment businesses
JNJ Coronavirus vaccine study has been halted due to unexplained illness in one of its participants - press

TUES 10/13
MAERSKB.DK Issues Q3 trading update: prelim Adj EBITDA $2.4B v $1.66B y/y, Rev $9.9B v $10.1B y/y; Raises FY20 outlook
*(DE) GERMANY OCT ZEW CURRENT SITUATION SURVEY: -59.5 V -60.0E; EXPECTATIONS SURVEY: 56.1 V 72.0E
JPM Reports Q3 $2.92 v $2.35e, Managed Rev $29.9B v $28.6Be; Extends buyback suspension at least through Q4
FAST Reports Sep net sales $478.6M +7.3% y/y
*IMF UPDATES ITS WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK (WEO)
*(US) SEPT CPI M/M: 0.2% V 0.2%E; CPI (EX-FOOD/ENERGY) M/M: 0.2% V 0.2%E; CPI NSA: 260.280 V 260.285E
DAL Reports Q3 -$3.30 v -$3.10e, Rev $2.65B v $3.09Be
LLY Lilly monoclonal antibody trial has been paused due to safety concerns - press
VZ CEO appears at the Apple 5G event; Verizon to double its fastest 5G wideband network launch across 1,800 US cities effective today

WEDS 10/14
BAC Reports Q3 $0.51 adj v $0.53e, Rev $20.3B v $20.6Be
(AT) ECB's Holzmann: More extensive containment measures likely to require more monetary and fiscal accommodation in the short run - financial press
*(US) SEPT PPI FINAL DEMAND M/M: 0.4% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 0.4% V 0.2%E
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Oct 10th: 520.5K, +1.9% y/y
(FR) France govt declares public health state of emergency beginning Saturday - Sky News
FSLY Cuts Q3 Rev $70.0-71M v $75Me (prior $73.5-75.5M), cites lower usage by TikTok
AA Reports Q3 -$1.17 v -$1.51e, Rev $2.37B v $2.22Be
UAL Reports Q3 -$8.16 v -$7.63e, Rev $2.49B v $2.57Be
Twitter and Facebook have limited user access to posts that linked to NY Post report that alleged Biden met with Ukrainian energy execs

THURS 10/15
ROG.CH Reports Q3 (CHF) Rev 14.7B v 15.4Be; Expects further dividend increase in 2020
2330.TW Reports Q3 (NT$) Net 137.3B v 124.9Be; Op 150B v 107.9B y/y; Rev 356.4B v 293.0B y/y
Guides Q4 Rev $12.4-12.7B; Gross Margin 51.5-53.5%; Forecasts based on NT$28.75/USD
(DE) Germany 10-year govt yield at -0.61% (lowest level since March)
*(US) OCT EMPIRE MANUFACTURING: 10.5 V 14.0E
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 898K V 825KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 10.02M V 10.55ME; highest level of initial claims since Aug; California jobless claims remain frozen at prior level
*(US) OCT PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK INDEX: 32.3 V 14.8E
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -3.8M V -2ME; GASOLINE: -1.6M V -1.5ME; DISTILLATE: -7.2M V -2ME
(US) FCC Chair Pai: FCC will 'move forward' on Section 230 with rulemaking to clarify its meaning; FCC general counsel has said agency has legal authority to interpret Section 230
DAI.DE Reports prelim Q3 adj EBIT €3.48B v €2.50Be; Expects a positive impact for the remainder of the year
HPE Guides initial FY21 $1.56-1.76 v $1.49e, FCF to grow at a 3-year CAGR of over 50% between FY20 and FY23
RIO.AU Reports Q3 Pilbara iron ore production 86.4Mt v 87.3Mt y/y; iron ore shipments 82.1Mt v 86.1Mt y/y
TWTR Twitter Lawyer Vijaya Gadde Tweets: Twitter will no longer remove hacked content unless directly shared by hackers or those acting in concert with hackers
(US) Pres Trump confirms he owes debts to 'normal banks' related to mortgages - debate comments

FRI 10/16
*(US) SEPT ADVANCE RETAIL SALES M/M: 1.9% V 0.8%E; RETAIL SALES (EX-AUTO) M/M: 1.5% V 0.4%E
(UK) PM Johnson: Prepared for no-deal exit and move to an Australia style deal; Still willing to discuss practicalities with EU - financial press
*(EU) EURO ZONE SEPT FINAL CPI Y/Y: -0.3% V -0.3%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 0.2% V 0.2%E
BA EU regulator EASA: Boeing 737 Max is safe, may return in 2020
PFE CEO: Could apply for emergency use of COVID-19 vaccine in late Nov (prior early Oct) - open letter
(US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count: 282 v 269 w/w (+5% w/w)

Hope still alive for stimulus and Brexit deals

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Hope still alive for stimulus and Brexit deals

2020-10-09T16:03:38.88

Stock markets forged higher this week despite a rising second wave of coronavirus infections globally. President Trump’s condition appeared to improve dramatically thanks to, in his opinion, a promising new antibody treatment which he described as a “cure.” Trump is set to resume attending campaign events next week. The drama in DC was not just confined to intrigue surrounding Trump’s Covid diagnosis but also the fate of a second fiscal stimulus package. Sentiment seesawed following a series of tweets from the President who called off the talks on Tuesday, only to do a complete reversal by Friday calling on negotiators to go big and find a much larger aid package than either side of Congress is currently offering. Regardless of the mixed signals coming out of Washington, markets and investors alike appear to holding out hope some sort of aid deal can be reached in the neighborhood of a $2T package.

Brexit talks continued but progress remained extremely limited ahead of next week’s UK-imposed EU summit deadline. Both sides agreed to intensify talks yet again, but the fisheries issue remains a key stumbling block. EU and French PMI services data fell back into contraction territory for the first time in several months while US weekly jobless claims remained elevated above 800K. The squishy data was reflected in a deluge of dovish remarks from central bank speakers. For example, Fed Chairman Powell reiterated that the FOMC was nowhere near worrying about overdoing it on the stimulus side given the current outlook. Treasury yields still managed to drift higher, helped in large part by another historic dose of coupon supply. The Greenback lost ground late in the week and WTI crude futures recouped a good portion of the recent weakness seen coming into the week. For the week, the S&P gained 3.8%, the DJIA rose 3.3%, and the Nasdaq added 4.6%.

In corporate news this week, Domino’s saw sales jump but pandemic-related costs crimp profits, sending shares lower. Levi’s blew away estimates and guided above consensus as its online sales surged. Morgan Stanley announced it would acquire investment manager Eaton Vance for $56.50/share in a $7B deal as the banking giant moves to buy up another fee-based business, following its E-Trade acquisition earlier this year. Bristol Myers Squibb agreed to pay $225.00/share in cash for Myokardia, in a deal valued at $13.1B, in order to acquire its pipeline of cardiovascular drugs. AMD reportedly is in late-stage talks to acquire Xilinx for over $30B, a deal that would be only the latest M&A in a rapidly consolidating sector. On the energy front, Fuelcell disclosed an $8M award from the Department of Energy to advance the commercialization of its solid oxide electrolysis high efficiency hydrogen generation technology.


MON 10/5
AIR.FR COO: Outlook for the aviation industry deteriorated again; expects at least 15,000 job cuts - press
CINE.UK Confirms to suspend operations at 536 theaters in US and 127 theaters in UK from Thursday, Oct 8th
*(FR) FRANCE SEPT FINAL SERVICES PMI: 47.5 V 47.5E (confirms 1st contraction in 4 months and lowest reading since May 2020)
*(DE) GERMANY SEPT FINAL SERVICES PMI: 50.6 V 49.1E (3rd month of expansion but lowest since June 2020)
*(EU) EURO ZONE SEPT FINAL SERVICES PMI: 48.0 V 47.6E (confirms 1st contraction in 3 months)
*(UK) SEPT FINAL SERVICES PMI: 56.1 V 55.1E (confirms 3rd month of expansion)
MYOK Confirms to be acquired by Bristol Myers Squibb for $225.00/shr in cash valued at $13.1B
*(US) SEPT FINAL MARKIT SERVICES PMI: 54.6 V 54.6E
(US) Said that the US House Panel will propose a break up of the US tech giants - press
*(US) SEP ISM SERVICES INDEX: 57.8 V 56.2E

TUES 10/6
(EU) EU Commission to allow budget rules to remain suspended in 2021 - financial press
(NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) Gov Olsen: Reiterates stance that willing to contemplate negative interest rates if financial markets are hit by a renewed wave of turmoil
(EU) ECB chief Lagarde: Reiterates stance that recovery is bumpy and uneven; prepared to add more monetary support, including cutting a key rate further below zero - CEO Summit comments
(US) Fed's Bullard (non-voter): Does not expect Fed to change policy stance through 2021; US Q3 GDP growth of 30% likely
*(US) PRESIDENT TRUMP: I HAVE DIRECTED REPUBLICANS TO STOP NEGOTIATING ON FISCAL STIMULUS UNTIL AFTER THE ELECTION
(US) House Antitrust Subcommittee Democratic report seeks break-up of giant internet platforms; calls for sweeping antitrust reforms for big tech
(US) Fed's Mester (FOMC voter): disappointed that fiscal talks have been halted; timing of fiscal stimulus is less important than approving a package; recovery will continue but it will be slower - CNBC interview

WEDS 10/7
(UK) UK intends to leave Brexit trade talks if there's no deal seen by Oct 15th, according to source familiar with UK Brexit position - press
*(US) DOE CRUDE: +0.5M V -1ME; GASOLINE: -1.4M V -1ME; DISTILLATE: -1.0M V -1ME
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Oct 3rd: 518.8K, +0.8% y/y
*(US) AUG CONSUMER CREDIT: -$7.2B v +$14.0Be
C Fed announces enforcement action against Citigroup that requires the firm to correct several longstanding deficiencies; cease and desist order requires Citigroup to enhance its firm-wide risk management and internal controls
(US) Pres Trump tweets recorded video message: says Regeneron antibody drug was 'the key' to feeling good again; mentions similar Lilly treatment being developed; wants Regeneron and Lilly drugs to be available free to Americans
005930.KR Reports Q3 prelim (KRW) Op 12.3T v 10.5Te, Rev 66.0T v 64.1Te (62.0T y/y)

THURS 10/8
066570.KR Reports Q3 prelim (KRW) Op 959.0B v 781.1B y/y, Rev 16.9T v 15.7T y/y
IBM To spin-off Managed Infrastructure Services Unit; Guides Q3 adj $2.58 v $2.55e, Rev $17.6B v $17.6B v $17.6Be
(DE) German Bundesrat (upper house) approves tax raise on greenhouse emission - press
(US) President Trump: feeling perfect; he will not participate in virtual debate against Biden following earlier Commission recommendation - Fox News interview
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 840K V 820KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 10.98M V 11.40ME
(CN) Pres Trump: I plan to use tariffs on China in a second term - Fox Business interview
(US) Treasury Sec Mnuchin reportedly floated the idea of restarting stimulus talks with Speaker Pelosi - Politico
(CN) SEC Chair Clayton: Directed staff to actively consider Trump's working group recommendations to strengthen protections for investors from EM risks, including investments in US-listed Chinese firms
(US) House Speaker Pelosi: there is no standalone airline bill without a bigger aid plan
*(US) TREASURY $23B 30-YEAR BOND REOPENING DRAWS 1.578%; BID TO COVER 2.29 V 2.31 PRIOR
(US) Pres Trump reportedly indicated he was worried by stock market reaction to his tweet calling off coronavirus relief talks; told House Min Leader McCarthy that he wanted a "big deal" with Speaker Nancy Pelosi - Axios
XLNX Speculated that co. is in advanced talks to be acquired by AMD, the deal could be worth over $30.0B [vs Xilinix's closing market cap of ~$25.9B] - US financial press

FRI 10/9
*(UK) AUG MONTHLY GDP M/M: 2.1% V 4.6%E
FCEL Discloses $8M DoE award to advance the demonstration and commercialization of FuelCell Energy’s solid oxide electrolysis high efficiency hydrogen generation technology
(US) Aug Final Wholesale Inventories M/M: 0.4% v 0.5%e

Markets stay calm despite US stimulus deadlock and Trump testing Covid positive

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Markets stay calm despite US stimulus deadlock and Trump testing Covid positive

2020-10-02T16:15:24.463

Trade commenced this week amid renewed hopefulness regarding US fiscal stimulus talks which came alongside several M&A announcement. A pronounced rebound in European banks also gained traction following a report Ping An acquired more shares of HSBC. Tuesday saw all eyes turn to the election in what could best be described as a wild, chaotic and decidedly unpresidential first debate. What was viewed by many as a poor showing for each candidate, appeared to result in little change in trajectory heading into next month’s vote. Focus quickly shifted back to DC, where, as the week progressed, hope waned that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and House Speaker Pelosi would be able to bridge a roughly $700B gap and find a way to a fiscal stimulus package compromise. Thursday evening the Democrats went ahead and pushed their $2.2T stimulus package through the House. Airlines did get a little boost on Friday as Pelosi said she was open to a separate deal to resume support for industry payrolls.

Ultimately Tuesday’s Presidential debate might just be the only one to occur after Friday’s bombshell announcement that the President and First Lady had tested positive for Covid-19, along with several other White House personnel. Initial reports indicated President Trump’s symptoms were mild but the news sent shockwaves through Washington and the nation. It also somewhat overshadowed a mixed September jobs report. Payroll figures missed expectations but the unemployment rate fell more than expected and the previous month’s job gains were revised higher. Particularly worrying though was the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), which increased by 781K to 2.4M, the single largest monthly increase since they started keeping records in 1948. For the week the S&P gained 1.5%, the DJIA added 1.9%, and the Nasdaq was up 1.5%.

In corporate news this week, airlines gained back some of their losses for the week after Speaker Pelosi said the House will pass standalone legislation to keep airline workers on payroll even if there is no broader agreement with the White House on COVID-19 relief, though any action by the House has been pushed to next week. Micron Q1 guidance disappointed, pushing shares lower, and the company couldn’t put a date on when it could sell to Huawei again. Bed Bath and Beyond posted a surprise blowout earnings number and notched its first comp sales gain since 2016 as it saw an upswing in e-commerce sales. Tesla reported a company record number of deliveries in Q3, setting the pace to reach its planned 500K total for the full year. Disney announced plans to cut 28K US theme park positions, 67% of which are part-time employees, as its California theme parks experience prolonged closures. Duke Energy reportedly rejected a takeover approach from NextEra Energy, though Next Era was said to still be interested in making a deal and Duke could be open to more discussions. Apollo's Covis reached an agreement to acquire AMAG Pharmaceuticals, which focuses on ‘underrecognized health conditions,’ at $13.75/share in cash, valuing it at $647M. Ford named John Lawler as CFO, effective immediately, as the auto industry enters the high-demand autumn selling season. Molson Coors signed an exclusive agreement with Coca-Cola to launch Mexico’s Topo Chico brand as a new hard seltzer product in the US.


SUN 9/27
981.HK US has imposed restrictions on exports to SMIC, the move by the US government said to be not as severe as blacklisting the co. - financial press
5.HK Ping An Insurance (largest shareholder) raised stake to 8% from 7.95%, purchased an additional 10.8M H-shares - update
MON 9/28
(US) White House plans to announce shipments of millions of rapid Covid tests to the states in an effort to get them to reopen schools - press
(UK) EU negotiators said to have indicated it was prepared to start writing a joint legal text of a post Brexit trade agreement with the UK - UK press
TUES 9/29
*(EU) EURO ZONE SEPT ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE: 91.1 V 89.0E
*(DE) GERMANY SEPT PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: -0.2% V -0.1%E; Y/Y: -0.2% V 0.0%E
*(US) SEPT CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 101.8 V 90.0E
(UK) Reportedly the UK has sent 5 new trade deal drafts to the EU in an effort to reach a breakthough in talks
(US) Dallas Fed Aug Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey: General Business Activity: 11.5 v 4.7 prior
(US) NYC test positivity rate registers at 3% today (tripling over last few days); if it remains at 3% for 7 days, all public schools close - press
(US) DOJ Antitrust Chief Delrahim: we are looking at controversy around data feeds from exchanges and data pricing - press interview
REGN REGN-COV2 Antibody Cocktail reduced Viral Levels and improved symptoms in Non-Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients in seamless Phase 1/2/3 trial
MU Reports Q4 $1.08 v $1.00e, Rev $6.06B v $5.91Be
*(CN) CHINA SEPT MANUFACTURING PMI (GOVT OFFICIAL): 51.5 V 51.3E (7th straight expansion)
WEDS 9/30
RDSA.NL Issues Q3 Update: Guides Q3 Integrated gas Production 820-860Kboe/d, LNG liquefaction volumes 7.9-8.3Mt, Adj Earnings $100-200M; Confirms to cut 9K jobs
*(DE) GERMANY SEPT NET UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -8.0K V -7.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS RATE: 6.3% V 6.4%E
*(US) SEPT ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +749K V +649KE; Strong gains in Manufacturing (4th month of improvement)
*(US) Q2 FINAL GDP PRICE INDEX: -1.8% V -2.0%E; CORE PCE Q/Q: -0.8% V -1.0%E
*(US) Q2 FINAL GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: -31.4% V -31.7%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: -33.2% V -34.1%E
(US) Nevada reports Aug casino gaming Rev $743.0M, -22.1% y/y; Las Vegas strip Rev $317.3M, -39.2% y/y
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -2.0M V +1ME; GASOLINE: +0.7M V -1ME; DISTILLATE: -3.2M V -1ME
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Sep 26th: 518.3K, -2.1% y/y
(US) Fed extends restrictions on large banks' dividends and buybacks into Q4 (for firms with over $100B in assets)
(JP) Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE): probing reports of network issues; JPX is halting trade of all shares due to network issues; Unsure when system will be restored.
(JP) Follow Up: JPX: Nikkei trading is halted for full day [Thursday] due to network issue [first time trading has been halted for an entire day]; To announce trading schedule tomorrow, will attempt to resume TSE trading on Friday (Oct 2nd)
THURS 10/1
(HK) Macau Sept Casino Rev (MOP): 2.2B v 1.3B prior; Y/Y: -90.0% v -94.5% prior
*(IT) ITALY SEPT MANUFACTURING PM: 53.2 V 53.5E (3rd month of expansion and highest since Jun 2018 )
*(EU) EURO ZONE AUG UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 8.1% V 8.1%E
F Names John Lawler (54) as CFO, effective immediately
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 837K V 850KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 11.8M V 12.20ME; California to not report claims for next 2 weeks
*(US) AUG PERSONAL INCOME: -2.7% V -2.5%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: 1.0% V 0.8%E
*(US) SEPT ISM MANUFACTURING: 55.4 V 56.4E; PRICES PAID: 62.8 V 58.8E
(UK) Bank of England (BOE): have reached target in corporate bond purchase program, no corporate bond operations will be conducted until further notice
(US) Fed extends temporary actions aimed at increasing the availability of intraday credit extended by Federal Reserve Banks to March 31st
(US) US President Trump: Will begin quarantine after aide Hicks tested positive for COVID-19, First Lady to also start the quarantine process
FRI 10/2
*(US) PRESIDENT TRUMP TWEETS: TESTED POSITIVE FOR CORONAVIRUS
*(EU) EURO ZONE SEPT ADVANCE CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: -0.3% V -0.2%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 0.2% (record low) V 0.4%E
TSLA Reports Q3 total production 145.0K v 82.3K q/q; deliveries 139.3K v 90.7K q/q v 140Ke; Says Q3 vehicle inventory declined further
*(US) SEPT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 7.9% V 8.2%E
*(US) SEPT CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: +661K V +875KE
*(US) SEPT AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M: 0.1% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 4.7% V 4.8%E; AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS: 34.7 V 34.6E
*(US) SEPT FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 80.4 V 79.0E
(US) House Speaker Pelosi: relief for airline workers is being advanced; calls on airlines to postpone job cuts; House will pass standalone legislation to keep airline workers on payroll if no broader agreement on COVID-19 relief is possible
(US) Pres Trump reportedly plans to empower Pence to take over some duties in the event his coronavirus symptoms worsen; national security is said to be a top priority - Fox News

Pandemic, Brexit and election uncertainties continue to chip away at market confidence

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Pandemic, Brexit and election uncertainties continue to chip away at market confidence

2020-09-25T16:10:20.163

US stock markets trended lower for the fourth straight week. Coronavirus worries in Europe were exported across the northern hemisphere as the flu season looms large, keeping a lid on investors’ willingness to add risk. Officials in Europe and Washington also showed little, if any, sense of urgency to reach a breakthrough in both Brexit and US fiscal stimulus talks. Adding to the uncertainty, President Trump continued to cast doubt on the potential authenticity of the upcoming election, forcing colleagues within the Republican party to avow that they will abide by the results and expect a peaceful transition of power in January. Banks in particular were soft globally amid a continued drift lower in rates and a report that accused several major banks of laundering over $2T in funds over the last 20 years. The US dollar benefited from several waves of safe haven trading while emerging market currencies lagged. The Euro tested fresh 7-week lows alongside gold prices. For the week, the S&P fell 0.6%, the DJIA dropped 1.7%, and the Nasdaq gained 1.1%.

In corporate news this week, Nike shares surged after blowing away Q1 expectations with large gains in online sales and a return to revenue growth in China. Embattled Nikola founder Trevor Milton voluntarily stepped down as Chairman as federal officials opened a probe into fraud claims against the electric vehicle company. Costco posted beats on its top and bottom line and reported comp sales +11%, but expectations got ahead of themselves and shares in the warehouse retailer moved lowed. Tesla held its Battery Day event, though investors were not so enthused by the focus on long-term vision and less on specifics and near-term deliverables. On the M&A front, Microsoft announced the acquisition of ZeniMax Media, the parent company of ‘Fallout’ and ‘Doom’ games publisher Bethesda Softworks, for $7.5B in cash. UK betting operator William Hill reportedly has been approached by Apollo and Caesars about a potential cash takeover. Illumina affirmed it would reacquire its former cancer detection spinoff Grail for $8B in a cash and stock deal. Scripps announced plans to acquire ION Media for $2.65B, and Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway will help finance the purchase with a $600M investment in preferred stock.


SUN 9/20
Several major global banks including Standard Chartered, JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank, Bank of New York Mellon and HSBC accused of laundering over $2.0T in funds over 20+ years in document filed by FinCEN

MON 9/21
NKLA Founder Trevor Milton proposes to voluntarily step down as Chairman and from the Board; Appoints former GM exec Stephen Girsky as successor; effective immediately
(US) Fed's Kaplan (FOMC dissenter): Sees rates near zero as appropriate for the coming 2.5-3.0 years
MSFT To acquire ZeniMax Media and its Game Publisher Bethesda Softworks for $7.5B in cash
*(US) FED Q2 FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS HOUSEHOLD CHANGE IN NET WORTH: +$7.61T V -$6.548T PRIOR

TUES 9/22
(UK) PM Johnson: Announces new restrictions to combat the spread of coronavirus; new restrictions likely to remain for six months (until Mar 2021) - comments in Parliament
(US) Senator Romney (R-UT) says will support vote this year on Trump's Supreme Court nominee - Politico
*(US) SEPT RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: 21 V 12E (highest since Sep 2018)
*(US) AUG EXISTING HOME SALES: 6.00M V 6.01ME (sales pace at 14-year high)
(US) FDA reportedly expected to release a new standard for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for coronavirus vaccine that may make it difficult to see approval before Election Day (Nov 3rd) - Wash Post
NKE Reports Q1 $0.95 v $0.46e, Rev $10.6B v $9.17Be
*(NZ) NEW ZEALAND CENTRAL BANK (RBNZ) LEAVES OFFICIAL CASH RATE (OCR) UNCHANGED AT 0.25%; (AS EXPECTED)

WEDS 9/23
*(FR) FRANCE SEPT PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.9 V 50.6E (moves back into expansion)
*(DE) GERMANY SEPT PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 56.6 V 52.5E (3rd straight expansion and highest reading since Jun 2018)
*(EU) EURO ZONE SEPT PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 53.7 V 51.9E (3rd month of expansion and highest reading since Aug 2018)
*(UK) SEPT PRELIMINARY PMI MANUFACTURING: 54.3 V 54.0E (4th straight expansion)
*(US) SEPT PRELIMINARY MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 53.5 V 53.5E
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -1.6M V -1.5ME; GASOLINE: -4.0M V -0.5ME; DISTILLATE: -3.4M V +1ME
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Sep 19th: 522K, -1.3% y/y
(US) Calif Gov Newsom signs exec order to ban sales of new automobiles with internal combustion engines in California beginning 2035 - press
(US) Pres Trump: believes the election will end up in the Supreme Court; that's why it's important to have nine justices seated
(US) President Trump: Going to have to see what happens on transfer of power

THURS 9/25
*(DE) GERMANY SEPT IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE SURVEY: 93.4 V 93.8E (5th straight month of improvement)
SSP Confirms to acquire ION Media for $2.65B cash-debt; Berkshire Hathaway to invest $600M PFD equity; To get warrant to buy up to 23.1M shares of Scripps
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 870K V 840KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 12.58M V 12.28ME
*(US) AUG NEW HOME SALES: 1.01M V 890KE (highest in 14 years)
(US) House Ways and Means Chair Neal (D-MA): confirms Democrats are drafting a new COVID response bill; could be voted on next week; likely to be at $2.2T
COST Reports Q4 $3.13 v $2.85e, Rev $52.3B v $52.5Be

FRI 9/26
WMH.UK Reportedly approached by Apollo for potential deal - press
*(US) AUG PRELIMINARY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: 0.4% V 1.4%E; DURABLES (EX-TRANSPORTATION): 0.4% V 1.0%E
(US) PRES TRUMP REPORTEDLY PLANS TO NOMINATE AMY CONEY BARRETT TO THE SUPREME COURT - CNN

Central banks reinforce commitments to prolonged easy policy in the face of uncertainty over new Covid spikes

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Central banks reinforce commitments to prolonged easy policy in the face of uncertainty over new Covid spikes

2020-09-18T16:06:20.493

US stock markets came under modest pressure this week. The NASDAQ led the way lower punching below its 50-day moving average and the S&P followed suit. The Transports and Russel 2000 experienced significantly better performance suggesting further rotation out of the big cap technology names that powered indices to fresh all-time highs this summer. Snowflake’s white hot IPO went down as the biggest software IPO in history by a wide margin, and may ultimately prove as the high water mark for investors’ frenzy into the cloud. Late in week sentiment was further damped by ongoing uncertainty related to President Trump’s TikTok saga and a growing belief that governments in Europe were mulling revisiting lockdown measures to stem resurgent Covid-19 infection rates.

We also heard from a host of central banks highlighted by the Fed. Chairman Powell discussed a sobering update of the FOMC’s outlook along with a heavily revised policy statement that included what he deemed as “powerful” forward guidance that should enable the Fed to meet its newly instituted average 2% inflation target. Meanwhile, the BOE acknowledged members specifically discussed the effectiveness of negative rates when they met on Thursday amid Brexit talks mired in stagnation following the House of Commons passage of PM Johnson’s internal markets bill. Overnight lending rates in Europe slipped further with Euribor falling below the ECB’s deposit rate for the first time and sovereign treasury yields remained capped. Crude oil prices moved up after OPEC+ producers met and made no mention of changes to oil output targets. For the week the S&P fell 0.7%, the DJIA slipped less than 0.1%, and the Nasdaq shed 0.6%.

In corporate news this week, after back-and-forth offers from multiple parties, reports indicated Oracle had reached a deal to partner with TikTok and bring its US operations under majority American ownership, but the White House had yet to sign off on the arrangement and set a Sunday deadline for its removal from app stores. FedEx posted an eye-popping quarter as COVID boosted deliveries and express margins, but the company refrained from offering FY guidance. Nvidia announced a deal to acquire Softbank’s chipmaker ARM for $40B, which would be the largest semiconductor deal in history, though regulatory hurdles still remain. Walmart confirmed its long-awaited Amazon Prime rival ‘Walmart+’ membership plan is now available, priced at $98/year or $12.95/month. Gilead Sciences announced a $21B deal for antibody therapy specialist Immunomedics at $88.00/share in cash, seeking to acquire its prized breast cancer treatment Trodelvy. Verizon bought Miami-based disposable phone service TracFone for $6.3B from America Movil as the telecom giant fortifies its position in the prepaid wireless space.


SUN 9/13
9984.JP Confirms it will sell ARM to NVIDIA for up to $40B [cash and stock transaction], $2.0B will be paid to Arm in cash; Softbank Group and Vision fund to receive $10B in cash; to receive $21.5B worth of NVIDIA shares
NVDA ARM transaction to be immediately accretive to non-GAAP gross margin and EPS

MON 9/14
(US) US Ambassador to China Branstad said to resign - CNN
DAL Cuts Q3 system capacity -60% y/y (prior -25% to -20% y/y) - filing
LEN Reports Q3 $2.12 v $1.51e, Rev $5.87B v $5.33Be; expect home sales to remain strong for the foreseeable future

TUES 9/15
*(DE) GERMANY SEPT ZEW CURRENT SITUATION SURVEY: -66.2 V -72.0E; EXPECTATIONS SURVEY: 77.4 V 69.5E
MMM Reports Aug Rev $2.7B +2% y/y; Guides Q3 Rev $8.2-8.3B v $8.0Be
WMT Confirms Walmart+ membership is now available costing $98/yr or $12.95/month
*(US) SEPT EMPIRE MANUFACTURING: 17.0 V 6.8E
*(US) AUG INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 0.4% V 1.0%E; CAPACITY UTILIZATION: 71.4% V 71.4%E
FDX Reports Q1 $4.87 v $2.54e, Rev $19.3B v $17.5Be

WEDS 9/16
*(UK) AUG CPI M/M: -0.4% V -0.6%E; Y/Y: 0.2% V 0.0%E (annual pace the slowest since Jan 2016)
*(US) AUG ADVANCE RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.6% V 1.0%E; RETAIL SALES (EX-AUTO) M/M: 0.7% V 1.0%E
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -4.4M V +1ME; GASOLINE: -0.4M V -1ME; DISTILLATE: +3.5M V +0.5ME
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Sep 12th: 509.6K, +8.6% y/y
SNOW IPO opens for trade at $245
(US) FOMC LEAVES TARGET RANGE UNCHANGED BETWEEN 0.00-0.25%; AS EXPECTED; FED WILL MAINTAIN LOW RATES UNTIL JOB AND INFLATION GOALS MET; 13 OF 17 MEMBERS PROJECT NO RATE RISE THROUGH AT LEAST 2023
(US) New York Fed: plans to continue to increase SOMA holdings of Treasury securities by approximately $80B/mo and to increase SOMA holdings of agency MBS by $40B/mo
*(JP) BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) LEAVES INTEREST RATE ON EXCESS RESERVES (IOER) UNCHANGED AT -0.10%, AS EXPECTED

THURS 9/17
*(EU) EURO ZONE AUG FINAL CPI Y/Y: -0.2% V -0.2%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 0.4% V 0.4%E
*(UK) BANK OF ENGLAND (BOE) LEAVES INTEREST RATE UNCHANGED AT 0.10%; AS EXPECTED; Discussed effectiveness of negative rates
*(UK) BOE SEPT MINUTES: VOTED 9-0 TO LEAVE INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED AT 0.10%
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 860K V 850KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 12.63M v 13.00ME
*(US) AUG HOUSING STARTS: 1.416M V 1.483ME; BUILDING PERMITS: 1.470M V 1.512ME
*(US) SEPT PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK:15.0 V 15.0E

FRI 9/18
*(UK) AUG RETAIL SALES (EX-AUTO/FUEL) M/M: 0.6% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 4.3% V 4.2%E
(US) Commerce Dept officials: confirm Americans will not be able to download WeChat or TikTok apps by Monday; US to ensure WeChat Pay will not be available in the US; WeChat ban prohibits replicating code in a new app; TikTok app will be removed from US app stores on Sunday
(US) SEPT PRELIMINARY UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 78.9 V 75.0E
(US) AUG LEADING INDEX: 1.2% V 1.3%E
MRNA Currently anticipates production of coronavirus vaccine mRNA-1273 will be 20M doses by end of 2020, anticipates total production of mRNA-1273 will be 0.5-1.0B doses during 2021

Volatility rises as tech momentum gets blunted; economic data continues to improve

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Volatility rises as tech momentum gets blunted; economic data continues to improve

2020-09-04T19:18:08.22

Equity markets continued to accelerate to the upside through mid-week, and then fell apart on Thursday as traders began to reassess the high flying valuations in the momentum names that have been the backbone of the rally since April. Highly anticipated stock splits in Apple and Tesla led the megacap stocks to new record highs as retail investors flooded into the ‘cheaper’ stocks post-split, but they were hit by a wave of steady selling on Thursday, and there was some rotation into long suffering sectors like banks and energy. By Friday, reports revealed that some of the froth in the tech sector over the last month has been driven by Softbank buying options in the tech sector tied to about $50B in equities. For the week, the S&P fell 2.3%, the DJIA lost 1.8%, and the Nasdaq plunged 3.3%.

Economic data continued to largely improve at a better than expected pace. China saw the sixth straight month of expansion in its Manufacturing PMI, while the Eurozone posted its seconds straight month of expansion in its manufacturing and services indices. A weak reading in the ADP employment change on Wednesday was quickly forgotten as the government’s employment data on Friday saw payrolls rises by nearly 1.4M jobs and unemployment fall to 8.4%, well below the 9.8% consensus estimate. The dollar index hit a fresh 2-year low on Monday and then rebounded slightly through the rest of the week, while gold saw a two-percent selloff. Treasury yields slipped throughout most of the week, but then reversed after the strong employment data on Friday.

In corporate news this week, Zoom blew away expectations in its quarterly report and guided well above what the market was looking for as the company expands its work-from-home client base. Sabre Corp saw its August air bookings drop 85% y/y, but the company in a mid-quarter statistics release noted net bookings moved positive in all regions for July, and that trend continued into August. The Department of Justice reportedly plans to file antitrust charges against Google in the coming weeks, despite pushback from DOJ lawyers who had sought more time to build a stronger case. Nestle announced it would purchase peanut allergy drug developer Aimmune Therapeutics in a $2.6B deal. Language learning tool maker Rosetta Stone said it would be acquired by Cambium Learnings for $30.00/share cash. AT&T is reportedly looking to divest its DirecTV satellite assets and was said to have been in talks with private equity names around a $20B valuation. Honda and General Motors signed an MOU toward establishing a strategic alliance to develop a range of cars in North America. The U.S. DOE selected Albemarle to take the lead on two new lithium research projects with the aim to enable nationwide lithium independence. Walmart announced it would finally launch its Walmart Plus subscription competitor to Amazon Prime on September 15th.

SUN 8/30
3328.HK Reports H1 Net -14.6% y/y
(JP) Berkshire Hathaway unit acquired 5% passive stakes in each of the 5 leading Japan trading companies (Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi Corp, Mitsui & Co and Sumitomo Corp)
*(CN) CHINA AUG MANUFACTURING PMI (GOVT OFFICIAL): 51.0 V 51.2E (6 straight expansion)

MON 8/31
*(DE) GERMANY AUG PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: -0.1% V 0.0%E; Y/Y:0.0% V 0.1%E
*(IN) INDIA Q2 GDP Y/Y: -23.9% V -18.0%E (record contraction)
(US) Fed Vice Chair Clarida: Fed would consider yield caps if circumstances changed markedly; forward guidance and large scale asset purchases are effective stimulus tools
*(US) AUG DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY: 8 V 0.0E
ZM Reports Q2 $0.92 v $0.45e, Rev $663.5M v $498Me; raises FY guidance

TUES 9/1
*(AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) LEAVES CASH RATE TARGET UNCHANGED AT 0.25%; AS EXPECTED; expands size and duration of term lending facility
(HK) Macau Aug Casino Rev (MOP): 1.3B; Y/Y: -94.5% v -93.0%e
*(IT) ITALY AUG MANUFACTURING PMI: 53.1 V 52.0E (2nd month of expansion and highest since Jun 2018)
*(FR) FRANCE AUG FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI: 49.8 V 49.0E (confirms 1st contraction in 3 months)
*(DE) GERMANY AUG FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI: 52.2 V 53.0E (confirms 2nd month of expansion)
*(DE) GERMANY AUG NET UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -9.0K V -2.0KE (2nd straight decline); UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS RATE: 6.4% V 6.4%E
*(EU) EURO ZONE AUG FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI: 51.7 V 51.7E (confirms 2nd month of expansion)
*(UK) AUG FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI: 55.2 V 55.3E (confirms its 3rd straight expansion)
*(EU) EURO ZONE AUG ADVANCE CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: -0.2% V +0.2%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 0.4% V 0.8%E (record low reading for core)
*(EU) EURO ZONE JULY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 7.9% V 8.0%E
*(US) AUG ISM MANUFACTURING: 56.0 V 54.8E; PRICE PAID: 59.5 V 54.0E (highest ISM since Jan 2019, highest prices paid since Nov 2018)
(US) Dallas Fed Aug Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey: General Business Activity: 4.7 v -26.7 prior
(IE) ECB’s Lane (Ireland, chief economist): We have seen a repricing in the Euro in recent weeks
V Reports Aug total US payments +7% y/y

WED 9/2
M Reports Q2 -$0.81 v -$1.78e, Rev $3.56B v $3.51Be
*(US) AUG ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +428K V +1.00ME (3rd straight month of increase)
CCA.CA Altice USA presents unsolicited offer to acquire Cogeco for $7.8B in order to own Atlantic Broadband; to sell Canadian assets to Rogers Communications upon completion of transaction
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -9.4M V -2ME; GASOLINE: -4.3M V -3ME; DISTILLATE: -1.7M V -1.5ME
*(US) FED BEIGE BOOK: EMPLOYMENT INCREASED OVERALL AMONG DISTRICTS, GAINS IN MANUFACTURING CITED MOST OFTEN
(US) CDC calls on states to be ready for potential vaccine by early November - NY Times
ALB Selected by U.S. DOE for Lithium Research Projects, one with ANL to "Enable Lithium Independence"
SABR Reports July/Aug Gross air bookings down ~85% y/y; Jul Net air bookings down ~ 90% and Aug down ~85% - filing

THURS 9/3
(FR) FRANCE AUG FINAL SERVICES PMI: 51.5 V 51.9E (confirms 3rd straight expansion)
*(DE) GERMANY AUG FINAL SERVICES PMI: 52.5 V 50.8E (confirms 2nd month of expansion)
*(EU) EURO ZONE AUG FINAL SERVICES PMI: 50.5 V 50.1E (confirms 2nd month of expansion)
*(UK) AUG FINAL SERVICES PMI: 58.8 V 60.1E (confirms 2nd straight expansion and highest since Apr 2015)
*(US) Q2 FINAL NONFARM PRODUCTIVITY: 10.1% V 7.5%E; UNIT LABOR COSTS: 9.0% V 12.0%E
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 881K V 950KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 13.25M V 14.00ME
CIEN Guides Q4 Rev $800-840M v $999Me, adj gross margin 46-48% - earnings call
*(US) AUG FINAL MARKIT SERVICES PMI: 55.0 V 54.7E
*(US) AUG ISM SERVICES INDEX: 56.9 V 57.0E
GOOGL Dept of Justice reportedly to file antitrust charges against Google in coming weeks; DOJ lawyers said to oppose move to expedite the case - New York Times
AVGO Reports Q3 $5.40 v $5.24e, Rev $5.82B v $5.78Be

FRI 9/4
*(US) AUG AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M: 0.4% V 0.0%E; Y/Y: 4.7% V 4.4%E; AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS: 34.6 V 34.5E
*(US) AUG UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 8.4% V 9.8%E
*(US) AUG CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: +1.37M V +1.35ME
Reportedly Softbank has been buying options in tech stocks over the last month - FT
MRNA To slow enrollment of COVID-19 vaccine trial to ensure diversity; trial could be delayed by a week due to the enrollment slowdown - CNBC

Stock run-up unabated; Fed formalizes view on inflation

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Stock run-up unabated; Fed formalizes view on inflation

2020-08-28T16:15:05.917

- US stock markets continued track higher this week despite a renewed round of US civil unrest and landfall of category 4 hurricane Laura in the Gulf of Mexico. By Friday the Dow managed to recoup all of it 2020 losses ahead of the implementation of historic composition changes set to take place Monday. The S&P rode a 5-day win streak of all-time highs testing 3500 for the first time, and the NASDAQ continued to ride the ongoing wave of nearly unprecedented momentum into technology shares. Covid-19 developments remained mostly positive following FDA approval for rapid coronavirus tests by Abbvie, as well as continued constructive reports surrounding various vaccine development. Case trends remained on downtrend in US and most of Asia, though EU showed some upward curve.
- The economic data turned a bit more constructive, once again led by strength in the housing market. The US Federal Reserved reiterated it is serious about keeping support flowing into this economy. By clarifying their long run goals after completing the long awaited policy review, Chairman Powell and others formally acknowledged that inflation will likely have to run above its 2% target for some time before they can be sure they achieved their mandated goal. The Dollar lost some ground following the announcement and gold prices lifted. The US yield curve also steepened after long dated debt underperformed. For the week the S&P rose 3.3%, the Dow added 2.6% and NASDAQ gained 3.4%.
- In corporate news this week, Salesforce reported a monster beat and raised its outlook by a wide margin, while also announcing it would lay off some of its workforce as part of a rebalancing. On the retail front, Best Buy saw a boost from the stay-at-home state of affairs, as online sales rose by over 200%, while it continues to weigh availability of inventory to match consumer demand. Dicks Sporting Goods saw record sales amid its own nearly 200% rise in e-commerce revenue. Nordstrom’s disappointed, notching a drop in digital sales on a year-on-year basis. Ulta Beauty smashed EPS estimates and noted sales trends have continued to improve. Amazon unveiled a new service dubbed ‘Amazon Halo,' along with the Amazon Halo Band, a health and wellness device which can purportedly also track a user’s moods. Google said it would invest $100M into telehealth provider Amwell as part of its multi-year plan to improve patient and clinician telehealth experiences. Walmart announced it is teaming up with Microsoft on a bid for TikTok’s US operations, while Oracle and its consortium was said to still be interested in the social media asset. Moderna confirmed it would supply Europe with 80M doses of its mRNA vaccine against COVID-19, while Sanofi’s CEO said recent data has increased confidence in the success of its two coronavirus vaccine candidates.

MON 8/24
2317.TW Reportedly Foxconn and Pegatron likely to relocate some facilities to Mexico due to continued US China trade war - press
GOOGL Reportedly plans $100M investment in telehealth provider Amwell - CNBC
CRM Amgen, Salesforce, Honeywell to join Dow Jones Industrial Average Index; to replace Exxon, Pfizer, and Raytheon; effective prior to the open on Aug 31st; prompted by Apple's 4:1 stock split reducing technology sector weighting

TUES 8/25
*(DE) GERMANY AUG IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE SURVEY: 92.6 V 92.1E (4th straight month of improvement)
BBY Reports Q2 $1.75 v $1.05e, Rev $9.91B v $9.69Be; continues to weigh availability of inventory to match consumer demand
*(US) AUG CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 84.8 V 93.0E
*(US) JULY NEW HOME SALES: 901K V 790KE
*(US) AUG RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: 18 V 10E

WEDS 8/26
*(US) JULY PRELIMINARY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: 11.2% V 4.7%E; DURABLES (EX-TRANSPORTATION): 2.4% V 2.0%E
(US) Nevada reports July casino gaming Rev $756.8M, -26.2% y/y; Las Vegas strip Rev $330.1M, -39.2% y/y
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -4.7M V -3ME; GASOLINE: -4.6M V -1.5ME; DISTILLATE: +1.4M V 0ME
MRNA Reports Covid-19 vaccine induces immune responses in small trial of older adults; produces similar antibody levels in seniors as in younger people
(US) National Hurricane Center (NHC): Hurricane Laura has become 'extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane'

THURS 8/27
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 1.01M V 1.00ME; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 14.54M V 14.40ME
*(US) Q2 PRELIMINARY GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: -31.7% V -32.5%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: -34.1% V -34.6%E
*(US) Q2 PRELIMINARY GDP PRICE INDEX: -2.0% V -1.8%E; CORE PCE Q/Q: -1.0% V -1.1%E
AMZN Introducing Amazon Halo and Amazon Halo Band, new service that helps customers improve their health and wellness
(US) Fed's Powell formally clarifies long run goals following policy review: Fed will now target 2% inflation on average; long run goal remains to achieve 2% inflation; would not be appropriate to specify a fixed goal for employment
(US) Fed's Powell: important to communicate to the public that any inflation overshoots will be moderate and not go on for long periods of time - Jackson Hole Q&A

FRI 8/28
*(JP) PM ABE SAID PLANNING TO RESIGN CITING HEALTH CONCERNS - NHK
3328.HK Reports H1 (CNY) Net 36.5B v 42.7B y/y, NII 73.8B v 70.1B y/y
*(EU) EURO ZONE AUG ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE: 87.7 V 85.0E
*(US) JULY PERSONAL INCOME: +0.4% V -0.3%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: 1.9% V 1.6%E
*(US) AUG CHICAGO PURCHASE MANAGERS INDEX: 51.2 V 52.6E
(US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count: 254 v 254 w/w (flat w/w)

Markets continue to climb the wall of worry, betting on large cap tech and big box retail

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Markets continue to climb the wall of worry, betting on large cap tech and big box retail

2020-08-21T16:09:09.323

The markets opened the week still under the influence of many of the same underlying cross currents that have been driving the action in recent weeks. The White House added another 38 Huawei affiliates to the economic blacklist while President Trump announced that he had postponed the six-month review of the Sino-US phase one trade deal, citing his unhappiness with China’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak. Trump also continued to raise concerns about the integrity of the upcoming US election, while Democrats raised a stink about the activities of the Postmaster General and hammered Trump for his pandemic record as they officially nominated Joe Biden at a virtual convention. Covid-19 infections picked up in Europe and parts of Asia but positive incremental news on vaccines and therapeutics continued to trickle out. Earnings season focus shifted to retailers, amongst whom the big box and home improvement names blew away analyst expectations. The often incredible growth came clearly at the expense of department stores and smaller players illustrating the tailwinds generated by forced closures related to the pandemic. The US data was mixed with housing holding up strong, but weekly initial jobless claims jumped back above the one million mark.

For much of the week stock indices climbed, powered by big gains in select mega-cap tech names masking broader softness. On Friday, decliners led advancers by nearly 3:1 margin across all major US stock markets but the indices still gained, illustrating the continued divergence exacerbated by the skewed index weighting towards select big cap tech. The Greenback bounced along 2-year lows before bouncing late in the week and rates moved lower amid a flattening yield curve. For the week, the S&P gained 0.7% and hit new all-time highs, while the DJIA was flat and the Nasdaq powered up 2.7%.

Corporate news this week was largely dominated by earnings reports from retailers. Home Depot blew away estimates, notching strong operating margins and a 25% jump in comp sales. Lowe’s fared even better, with revenue well above expectations and comp sales up 34%. Walmart posted beats along with 9% US SSS growth, and also noted its Sam’s Club new member count increased more than 60%. Target saw 24% comp sales growth and said it has continued to see strength across its portfolio into August. Kohl’s Q2 was not as weak as feared, but the department store chain said it was planning for the crisis to continue to impact its business in the near term. TJX disappointed with a surprise earnings miss to the downside. Nvidia posted an earnings beat amid strong data center business growth, and the company said it expects a strong second half for gaming. Oracle was said to have entered the bidding war for TikTok US, though Microsoft reportedly still remains in the pole position to acquire the social media assets. Apple's market cap reached the $2 trillion level, while Tesla shares pushed through $2,000 a share, both assisted by impending stock splits.


MON 8/17
(US) US Commerce Department to add another 38 Huawei affiliates in 21 countries to economic blacklist - press
*(US) AUG EMPIRE MANUFACTURING: 3.7 V 15.0E

TUES 8/18
HD Reports Q2 $4.02 v $3.71e, Rev $38.1B v $34.9Be; Maintains dividend
WMT Reports Q2 $1.56 v $1.20e, Rev $137.7B v $134.2Be
*(US) JULY HOUSING STARTS: 1.50M V 1.25ME; BUILDING PERMITS: 1.50M V 1.33ME
(US) State Dept asks college endowment funds to divest from Chinese companies
(US) Pres Trump: I have postponed trade talks with China; I don't want to talk to China right now

WEDS 8/19
*(UK) JULY CPI M/M: +0.4% V -0.1%E; Y/Y: 1.0% V 0.6%E
*(EU) EURO ZONE JULY FINAL CPI Y/Y: 0.4% V 0.4%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 1.2% V 1.2%E
LOW Reports Q2 $3.75 v $2.94e, Rev $27.3B v $24.7Be; Sales momentum continues in Aug
TGT Reports Q2 $3.38 v $1.64e, Rev $23.0B v $20.2Be
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -1.6M V -2.5ME; GASOLINE: -3.3M V -1ME; DISTILLATE: +0.2M V -0.5ME
MNTA To be acquired by JNJ for $52.50/shr valued at $6.5B in cash; Affirms FY20 $7.75-7.95 and expects incremental investment in R&D to have EPS impact worth ~$0.10-0.15 in 2021, Expects nipocalimab to contribute to goal of achieving above-market growth over the mid and long term
AAPL Reaches $2T market cap
OPEC+ JMMC technical meeting draft communique: plans next JMMC meeting for Sept 17th
(US) US and China officials reportedly plan to hold video conference in coming days to discuss progress fulfilling terms of 'Phase 1' trade agreement - press
NVDA Reports Q2 $2.18 v $1.95e, Rev $3.87B v $3.65Be

THURS 8/20
Several central banks to reduce frequency of 7-day USD liquidity operations from 3x to 1x per week; effective Sept 1st
*(US) AUG PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK: 17.2 V 20.8E
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 1.11M V 920KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 14.84M V 15.00ME
*(US) JULY LEADING INDEX: 1.4% V 1.1%E

FRI 8/21
*(UK) JULY RETAIL SALES (EX-AUTO/FUEL) M/M: 2.0% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 3.1% V 1.5%E
*(FR) FRANCE AUG PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 49.0 V 53.0E (1st contraction in 3 months)
*(TR) Turkey President Erdogan: Found 320B CM in Black Sea gas discovery; will not stop until we become a next exporter of energy
*(US) JULY EXISTING HOME SALES: 5.86M V 5.41ME (2nd straight highest monthly gain on record)

Markets pause awaiting better signals on the direction of the recovery and stimulus plans

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Markets pause awaiting better signals on the direction of the recovery and stimulus plans

2020-08-14T16:05:53.3

US stock markets pushed higher this week and the move included a welcomed expansion of leadership. The gains came despite rising concerns about the resurgence of Covid-19 infections globally and a hardening of the Washington stalemate over new financial stimulus. The Senate went on recess after President Trump passed executive orders that are expected to result in a deferral of payroll tax withholdings, and both sides spent the week outlining a significant gulf in demands that has only widened. The S&P neared its mid-February all-time highs while the Transports and small caps rode extended winning streets. The NASDSAQ took a step back, especially early in the week, as money appeared to rotate away from large cap tech/growth into areas more traditionally deemed as value like banks and other more deep cyclical sectors. Treasury yields backed up and the curve steepened alongside that rotation spurred by hotter than expected US July inflation readings and a deluge of UST supply which culminated in a very poorly received 30-year bond auction on Thursday. The US dollar was unable to garner any momentum as the discord in DC likely served as a headwind. Hopes that a Sino-US teleconference this weekend might ease tensions over sharping White House rhetoric on the virus origins and Chinese social media firms’ position in the US market were dashed after the meeting was postponed indefinitely on Friday. For the week, the S&P gained 0.6%, the DJIA added 1.8%, and the Nasdaq edged up 0.1%.

In corporate news this week, 3M shares rose after posting solid July numbers, noting ‘broad-based improvements’ in sales trends. Cisco stock slid after reporting a drop in revenue and offering downbeat guidance for next quarter amid caution from enterprise customers. Tesla followed Apple’s lead and announced a 5-for-1 stock split, effective at the end of August. Epic Games filed antitrust suits against Apple and Google after both banned the ‘Fortnite’ game from their app stores because of unsanctioned in-game payments. After its recent IPO, Rocket Companies’ shares surged after reporting jaw-dropping growth in preliminary earnings as the company said it was positioned to capture further market share. Simon Property was said to be in talks with Amazon over turning certain department store spaces into Amazon fulfillment centers. Twitter reportedly held preliminary talks about taking over TikTok, after Microsoft confirmed last week it had held discussions about acquiring the controversial social media company. Barry Diller’s IAC announced it invested $1B to take a 12% stake in gaming giant MGM, adding it is particularly interested in online gaming. The White House announced it had reached a $1.5B supply agreement with Moderna for an initial 100M doses of their COVID-19 vaccine, while Novavax announced a more modest vaccine collaboration with the UK government.


MON 8/10
*(US) JUN JOLTS JOB OPENINGS: 5.889M V 5.300ME
(US) FCC plans auction for 100 megahertz of spectrum that had been previously reserved for military radar; sale could begin in Dec 2021 - press

TUES 8/11
*(DE) GERMANY AUG ZEW CURRENT SITUATION SURVEY: -81.3 V -69.5E; EXPECTATIONS SURVEY: 71.5 V 55.8E
MSTR Adopts 21.5K Bitcoin (~$250M) as primary treasury reserve asset
*(US) JULY PPI FINAL DEMAND M/M: 0.6% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: -0.4% V -0.7%E
TSLA Announces a 5-for-1 stock split, effective Aug 31st
(US) Fed to modify pricing for Municipal Liquidity Facility (MLF); cuts interest rate spread on tax-exempt notes by 50bps
*(NZ) NEW ZEALAND CENTRAL BANK (RBNZ) LEAVES OFFICIAL CASH RATE (OCR) UNCHANGED AT 0.25%; (AS EXPECTED) EXPANDS QE BOND BUYING PROGRAM

WEDS 8/12
*(UK) Q2 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: -20.4% V -20.7%E; Y/Y: % V -22.3%E
700.HK Reports Q2 (CNY) Net 30.2B v 29.2Be, Rev 114.9B v 88.8B y/y; does not provide interim dividend
*(US) JULY CPI M/M: 0.6% V 0.3%E; CPI (EX-FOOD/ENERGY) M/M: 0.6% V 0.2%E; CPI NSA: 259.101 V 258.543E
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -4.5M V -2ME; GASOLINE: -0.7M V -1ME; DISTILLATE: -2.3M V +0.5ME
(US) House Speaker Pelosi: we are still 'miles apart' from any deal on coronavirus aid; there's no use in continuing talks if Republicans don't come to the table - MSNBC interview
(US) NJ Gov Murphy: signing Executive Order officially clearing both our public and nonpublic pre-K through 12 schools and our colleges and universities to reopen for upcoming academic year in New Jersey
*(US) JULY MONTHLY BUDGET STATEMENT: -$63B V -$137.5BE

THURS 8/13
MMM Reports July Rev $2.8B +6% y/y
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 963K V 1.10ME (lowest level since mid-Mar); CONTINUING CLAIMS: 15.49M V 15.80ME
*(US) TREASURY $26B 30-YEAR BOND AUCTION DRAWS 1.406%; BID TO COVER 2.14 V 2.30 PRIOR AND 2.30 OVER LAST 4 AUCTIONS
AAPL Epic Games files civil antitrust suit against Apple after Fortnite removal from the App Store - press
BIDU Reports Q2 $1.46 v $1.39e, Rev $3.69B v $3.66Be

FRI 8/14
*(EU) EURO ZONE Q2 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: -12.1% V -12.1%E V -12.1% ADVANCE; Y/Y: -15.0% V -15.0%E
RKT Reports Prelim Q2 adj Net $2.8B +995% y/y; Rev $5.0B, +437% y/y
*(US) Q2 PRELIMINARY NONFARM PRODUCTIVITY: 7.3% V 1.5%E; UNIT LABOR COSTS: 12.2% V 6.9%E
*(US) JULY ADVANCE RETAIL SALES M/M: 1.2% V 2.1%E; RETAIL SALES (EX-AUTO) M/M: 1.9% V 1.3%E
(CN) US-China six-month review of trade agreement reportedly postponed due to a scheduling issue; had been planned for tomorrow; parties have not set new date yet - press

TradeTheNews.com 

 Strong tech earnings stoke optimism despite slow-moving US stimulus talks and COVID flare ups

2020-07-31T16:06:57.227

Investors had a litany of potential catalysts to navigate this week. Earnings season surged, while four high-profile US tech executives testified in front of a Senate panel the day before their firms reported astonishing quarterly numbers. The FOMC meeting concluded without and changes to policy, as expected. Chairman Powell explicitly expressed yet again that officials had no intention of even entertaining a discussion on raising rates anytime soon. There were some signs that US hotspots were seeing coronavirus infection rates start to slow, while other parts of the country, and various pockets outside the US were forced to confront resurgent Covid-19 numbers. Interest rates moved lower globally exacerbated by benign inflation readings in Europe and continued worries about the trajectory of the US economy. Adding to the unease was continued bickering in Washington D.C. Republican and Democratic leaders showed little inclination to find middle ground in the ongoing coronavirus stimulus talks. The US dollar continued to break lower while metals and bitcoin made new cycle highs. For the week, the S&P gained 1.7%, the DJIA lost 0.2%, and the Nasdaq surged 3.7%.

In corporate news this week, earnings season ramped into overdrive as reports from the big tech firms and over a third of the S&P 500 came in. Amazon blew away estimates again, guiding well above top-line consensus with improving margins, as spending flooded in from pandemic online shopping. Apple soared higher after posting its own monster third quarter and announcing a 4-for-1 stock split. Google shares fell after posting a decline in ad business and operating margin. Facebook advertising revenue topped expectations, as the social media giant continued to grow amid the pandemic and despite a boycott by many large advertisers. EBay beat on the top and bottom line and guided ahead of consensus as volumes spiked amid the pandemic spending influx. AMD posted an earnings beat and raised its revenue forecast as it gained semiconductor market share at the expense of Intel. Starbucks posted further coronavirus-induced losses but the coffee chain noted positive US SSS in July. McDonalds reported a weak quarter, posting a miss on EPS, though it, too, saw positive US comps in July. UPS notched a big beat on both its top and bottom line though it said it expects US Q3 demand growth to be lower sequentially. Exxon and Chevron results were disappointing, highlighting current difficulties in the oil patch environment. Enova announced it would acquire online lender OnDeck in a $90M deal, about 94% below its peak market valuation in 2015. Reports late in the week indicated Nvidia is in advanced talks to acquire Softbank’s semiconductor design company Arm for over $32B. On the regulatory front, a bipartisan duo of congressmen, Senators Blumenthal (D-CT) and Hawley (R-MO), called on the Department of Justice to probe Zoom and TikTok. And on Friday, the Trump administration was said to be preparing to order China’s ByteDance to sell its US TikTok operations.


SUN 7/26
TSM Receives order from Intel for 180K units with 7nm optimized version of the 6nm process; AMD also increased its 7nm order with TSMC to 200K units - Taiwanese press

MON 7/27
SAP.DE Reports final Q2 Non-IFRS Op €1.96B v €1.96B prelim, Rev €6.74B v €6.74B prelim; Affirms FY20 Rev outlook and Raises FCF
Morgan Stanley Cuts U.S. Software Industry View to In-Line from Attractive
(CN) China Foreign Ministry: reiterates US allegations of Houston spying are groundless
*(DE) GERMANY JULY IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE SURVEY: 90.5 V 89.3E
*(US) JUN PRELIMINARY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: 7.3% V 7.0%E; DURABLES (EX-TRANSPORTATION): 3.3% V 3.6%E
GOOGL Reportedly Google extends its work from home order to Summer 2021 - press
LECO Reports Jul MTD order rates trending down high-teens to low 20% - earnings slides
TUES 7/28
MMM Reports Q2 $1.78 v $1.77e, Rev $7.18B v $7.27Be; On track for ~2B global respirators production
(US) Fed extends emergency lending programs by 3 months through Dec 31st to provide certainty to borrowers
*(US) JUL RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: 10 V 5E
*(US) JULY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 92.6 V 95.0E
(US) Dallas Fed July Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey: General Business Activity: -26.7 v +2.1 prior
EBAY Reports Q2 $1.08 v $1.06e, Rev $2.87B v $2.80Be
ONDK Enova to acquire OnDeck in $90M deal for $1.38/shr ($8M to be paid in cash)
SHOP Files $7.5B mixed securities shelf (7% of market cap)
LB Confirms to cut home office headcount by 15%; updates on progress in executing go-forward strategy; most Bath & Body Works and Victoria’s Secret stores in North America have reopened

WEDS 7/29
DBK.DE Reports Q2 Net -€77M v -€3.2B y/y, Pretax +€158M v -€946M y/y, Net Rev €6.29B v €6.20B y/y; Transformation is fully on track, raises FY20 Rev guidance
SAN.FR Reports Q2 Business EPS €1.28 v €1.31 y/y, Business Net €1.60B v €1.64B y/y, Rev €8.21B v €8.4Be; Raises Business EPS guidance
RIO.AU Reports H1 Underlying Net $4.75B v $4.3Be; underlying EBITDA $9.64B v $9.14Be; Rev $19.4B (consolidated sales) v $20.7B y/y; Affirms FY20 output guidance
RIO.AU CFO: China's recovery is amazing, elsewhere is very weak - post earnings comments
GE Reports Q2 -$0.15 v -$0.14e, Rev $17.8B v $17.0Be; Sees positive Industrial FCF in FY21
SMG Reports Q3 $3.80 v $3.35e, Rev $1.49B v $1.32Be; Consumer purchases entering August are up 23% at our largest four retail partners and we’ve seen increases in every product category
BA Reports Q2 -$4.79 v -$2.93e, Rev $11.8B v $12.6Be; has close to $10B untapped credit
GM Reports Q2 -$0.50 v -$1.72e, Rev $16.8B v $20.5Be
R Reports Q2 -$0.95 v -$1.44e, Rev $1.90B v $2.00Be; now expects the recovery in the used vehicle market will be delayed beyond the company's prior expectation of mid-2021
INTU Introduces QuickBooks Cash & Payments, a New Business Bank Account With a 1% Rate (Using GDOT Banking Lic)
(US) Nevada reports June casino gaming Rev $567M, -45.6% y/y; Las Vegas strip Rev $238.3M, -31.4% y/y
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -10.6M V -0.5ME; GASOLINE: +0.7M V -1.5ME; DISTILLATE: +0.5M V +0.5ME
DB1.DE Reports Q2 Net €288M v €288M y/y, adj EBITDA €483.1M v €482Me, Rev €778M v €724.8M y/y
005930.KR Reports Q2 Final (KRW) Net 5.5T v 5.18T y/y; Op 8.15T v 6.6T y/y (vs 8.10T prelim); Rev 52.97T v 56.13T y/y (vs 52.0T prelim)
*(US) FOMC LEAVES TARGET RANGE UNCHANGED BETWEEN 0.00-0.25%; AS EXPECTED; economy has picked up in recent months but still below pre-pandemic levels

THURS 7/30
AIR.FR Reports H1 Net -€1.9B v +€1.2B y/y, Adj EBIT -€945M* v +€2.5B y/y; Rev €18.9B v €20.27Be
RDSA.NL Reports Q2 -$2.33* v -$0.31e, Rev $32.5B v $91.8B y/y; Affirms dividend cut to $0.16/share [in line with announcement from April 30th]
BA.UK Reports H1 adj EPS 16.7p v 25.0p y/y, adj EBITA £895M v £999M y/y, Rev £9.87B v £9.42B y/y
066570.KR Reports final Q2 (KRW) Net 65.6B v 106B y/y; Op 495.4B v 652B y/y (493B prelim), Rev 12.8T v 15.6T y/y (12.8T prelim)
AZN.UK Reports Q2 Core EPS $0.96 v $0.93e, Rev $6.28B v $6.3Be
*(DE) GERMANY JULY NET UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -18.0K V +41.0KE (1st decline in 4 months); UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS RATE: 6.4% V 6.5%E
*(DE) GERMANY Q2 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: -10.1% V -9.0%E; Y/Y: -11.7% V -11.5%E (largest contraction since 1970)
*(EU) EURO ZONE JULY ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE: 82.3 V 81.4E
*(EU) EURO ZONE JUN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 7.8% V 7.7%E
JNJ Single dose of Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine candidate demonstrates robust protection in pre-clinical studies on non-human primates (NHPs) as demonstrated by 'neutralizing antibodies'; Ad26.COV2.S Phase 3 trial to start in Sept to evaluate both one- and two-dose regimens of Ad26.COV2.S in parallel studies
UPS Reports Q2 $2.13 v $1.06e, Rev $20.5B v $17.3Be
PG Reports Q4 $1.16 v $1.01e, Rev $17.7B v $17.0Be
*(DE) GERMANY JULY PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: -0.5% V -0.3%E; Y/Y: -0.1% V +0.1%E
Z Launches nationwide strategic existing home selling partnership with D.R. Horton
*(US) Q2 ADVANCE GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: -32.9% (record decline) V -34.5%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: -34.6% V -34.5%E
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 1.43M V 1.45ME; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 17.02M V 16.20ME
*(US) Q2 ADVANCE GDP PRICE INDEX: -1.8% V 0.0%E; CORE PCE Q/Q: -1.1% V -0.9%E
(US) Pres Trump questions whether the election should be delayed until it can be done 'properly, securely and safely'
ZM Sen Blumenthal (D-CT) and Sen Hawley (R-MO) call on Dept of Justice to probe Zoom and Tiktok - press
AMZN Reports Q2 $10.30 v $1.74e, Rev $88.9B v $81.6Be
GOOGL Reports Q2 $10.13 v $8.43e, Rev $31.6B (ex $6.7B of TAC) v $30.6Be
*(CN) CHINA JULY MANUFACTURING PMI (GOVT OFFICIAL): 51.1 V 50.8E (5th straight expansion)

FRI
NOKIA.FI Reports Q2 non- IFRS Net €316M v €258M y/y, Rev €5.1B v €5.24Be
*(FR) FRANCE Q2 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: -13.8% V -15.2%E; Y/Y: -19.0% V -20.0%E
*(EU) EURO ZONE Q2 ADVANCE GDP Q/Q: -12.1% V -12.1%E; Y/Y: -15.0% V -14.5%E
*(EU) EURO ZONE JULY ADVANCE CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: 0.4% V 0.2%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 1.2% V 0.8%E
NVDA Reportedly in advanced talks to acquire Softbank chip company arm - press
CAT Reports Q2 $1.03 v $0.66e, Rev $10.0B v $9.20Be; Not providing FY20 outlook
*(US) JUN PERSONAL INCOME: -1.1% V -0.6%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: 5.6% V 5.2%E
*(US) JULY FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 72.5 V 72.9E
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecasts initial Q3 GDP growth at +11.9%
(US) NJ Gov Murphy: New Jersey transmission rate rises to 1.35; these numbers are 'setting off alarms'
KSU PE firms reportedly discussing bid for KSU, could fetch $21B with debt - press