Market pressures intensify on fears of stagflation and ahead of pivotal Fed meeting next week

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Weekly Market Update: Market pressures intensify on fears of stagflation and ahead of pivotal Fed meeting next week

2022-04-29T16:24:17.82

Investors can only hope that April showers will bring May flowers after enduring another exceedingly difficult week. The NASDAQ finished off its worst month since late 2008, and the S&P saw its worst monthly performance since March 2020. Bond funds offered little solace as rates rose significantly as the Federal Reserve and other central banks embarked on increasingly aggressive designs to tame inflation. The VIX surged back above 30 as the S&P tested below 4200 on several occasions. After a dip in US Treasury yields early in the week amid sharp risk-off trading, rates steadily rose into Friday. The US Dollar Index notched a new 2 decade high after briefly surpassing 2020 and 2017 highs. WTI crude prices rose for the final 4 trading sessions to finish up around 9% on the week following a report Germany has dropped opposition to a full EU embargo of Russian oil. For the week, the S&P lost 3.3%, the DJIA was off 2.5%, and the Nasdaq tumbled 3.9%.

Coming into the week, Russian President Putin’s rhetoric that any country trying to intervene Ukraine could be on the receiving end of a nuclear strike seemed to cast a general pall over risk appetite. China’s zero-Covid policies also continued to weigh on sentiment. Reports that manufacturing activity was slowly returning to Shanghai were offset by an opposing report the government has no intention on backtracking from its zero tolerance policies. Economic data did little to provide much in way of relief. April Richmond Fed data saw both the backlog and volume of new orders drop while wages continued to rise. The US Q1 advanced GDP print was negative, but that softness was mostly attributed to trade, inventories, and government spending. EU inflation readings offered little hope that prices were likely to backtrack anytime soon. The US March PCE data did offer some glimmers that could support the narrative that "inflation may have peaked". Nevertheless, Friday also saw a record jump in the Q1 Employment Cost Index which may have helped push rates higher into week’s end. Inflation remained the key underlying theme across nearly all quarterly earnings reports which saw many firms report solid organic revenue growth, but struggle to hold the line on gross margins.

In corporate news this week, Apple reported beats on its top and bottom line, alongside its annual share buyback and dividend increase announcements, but those results were sandbagged by executives noting that June quarter results will be negatively impacted by $4-8B due to supply constraints. Amazon missed expectations amid a massive writedown on its stake in EV maker Rivian and said it would no longer be ‘chasing physical or staffing capacity,’ and also offered lighter-than-expected revenue guidance for next quarter. Alphabet notched an EPS miss, though its revenue was inline, as its YouTube business saw some negative effects following its exit from Russia. Facebook Q2 revenue guidance came in short of expectations, but DAU numbers and tempering of expense growth expectations sparked a relief rally. Microsoft was a bright spot among the largecap tech firms reporting this week, announcing a further rise in its earnings and revenue amid continued demand in cloud services and software sectors.

In M&A news, Twitter accepted Elon Musk’s $44B takeover offer after no white knight offers materialized, though there are already reports the deal will face close scrutiny from regulators and Congress. The owners of JCPenney reportedly offered $68/share for Kohl’s valuing the chain at $8.6B.



SUN 4/24
(EU) ECB chief Lagarde: "high probability" asset purchases end early Q3; "Strong chance" rates will rise this year; Not seeing any stagflation
(UR) Ukraine President Zelenskiy: Announces visit by US Sec State Blinken and Sec Def Austin; Peace talks would be over if soldiers in Mariupol were killed or pseudo-referendum is announced as part of the creation of new pro-Russian pseudo-republics
(RU) Russia Pres Putin said to have lost interest in peace agreement with Ukraine and moving to strategy which implies occupying as many Ukrainian land as possible - FT
(RU) Russia Defense Ministry official: Accusing US of "staging provocations" to accuse Russia of using biological, chemical or nuclear weapons in Ukraine in response to successes of Russian military operation
(EU) Reportedly EU's 6th sanctions package against Russia may be presented as soon as Monday, Apr 25th and could be adopted by Friday, Apr 29th; Set to include some form of ban on Russian oil imports - press
(EU) ECB members reportedly keen to end APP (conventional QE) program at the earliest possible moment and raise interest rates as soon as July but certainly no later than Sept 2022 - financial press
(US) Pres Biden tweets: We will continue to support Ukrainians in their fight to defend their homeland
(AU) Australia PM Morrison: China naval base in Solomon Islands a 'red line' - press
MON 4/25
005380.KR Reports Q1 (KRW) Net 1.58T v 1.52T y/y, Op 1.93T v 1.66T y/y, Rev 30.3T v 27.4T y/y; Expects global chip shortage to ease gradually
ROG.CH Reports Q1 (CHF) Rev 16.4B v 14.9B y/y
(UR) US Sec of State Blinken: Russia is failing in its war aims, Ukraine is succeeding - comments after visiting Kyiv
*(DE) GERMANY APR IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE SURVEY: 91.8 V 89.0E
6502.JP Reportedly CVC and KKR to consider bids for Toshiba - press
*(CN) CHINA PBOC CUTS FOREX RESERVE RATIO REQUIREMENT (RRR) BY 100BPS TO 8.0%; Effective May 15th
CVNA To sell $2.28B in Sr unsecured notes due 2030, to finance ADESA US Auction acquisition
*(US) APR DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY INDEX: 1.1 V 4.8E
BAYN.DE CEO: Affirms FY22 Core EPS €7.00 , adj Rev ~€46B v €45.4Be, EBITDA €12B, EBITDA Margin 26% - AGM speech
KSS Reportedly JCPenney owners said to have offered $68/shr valued at $8.6B - press
(RU) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Russia will continue contacts with Ukraine Pres Zelenskiy's team; The danger of nuclear war is serious, it is real, it should not be underestimated, but Russia's strong position is that nuclear war is unacceptable
PKG Reports Q1 $2.72 v $2.53e, Rev $2.14B v $2.07Be; Expect demand in our Packaging segment to remain very strong
(HK) Hong Kong Chief Exec Lam: No new plans to relax border controls and flights
TUES 4/26
5.HK Reports Q1 Net $2.8B v $3.9B y/y, adj Pretax $4.71B v $6.4B y/y, Rev $12.6B v $13.3B y/y; to initiate further $1.0B share buyback
UBSG.CH Reports Q1 Net $2.1B v $1.8B y/y, Adj Pretax $2.7B v $2.3B y/y, Rev $9.4B v $8.7B y/y
NOVN.CH Reports Q1 Core EPS $1.46 v $1.44e, Rev $12.5B v $12.8Be
MAERSKB.DK Reports prelim Q1 EBITDA $9.2B v $8.11Be, Rev $19.3B v $18.6Be; Raises FY22 guidance
(DE) Germany said to approve delivery of Gepard* self-propelled anti-aircraft cannons (tanks) to Ukraine - German press
(RU) Donbas separatists leader Pushilin: It is necessary to commence next stage of military operation after reaching borders of Donetsk region
EUR/USD Trades below 1.07 level per US dollar (1st time since Mar 2020) amid overall dollar strength
(DE) German Defense Min Lambrecht: To increase support for Ukraine to €2B; Confirms to send 50 Gepard tanks to Ukraine
(RU) Russia and Belarus forces to hold joint drills of air forces and anti-missile forces in Belarus - Russian press
(RU) Reportedly pro-Russian Transnistrian leadership will soon take decisions for defense of Moldova's breakaway region of Transnistria interests - Russian press
ROSN.UK Received no offers for its 5.1Mt of Urals crude oil tender - press
UPS Reports Q1 $3.05 v $2.87e, Rev $24.4B v $23.9Be; Doubles FY22 buyback target by $1B to $2B
GE Reports Q1 $0.24 v $0.20e, Rev $17.0B v $17.5Be; Recognized $230M in Russia/Ukraine was charges in Q1; Currently trending toward the low end of its guidance range
DHI Reports Q2 $4.03 v $3.37e, Rev $8.00B v $7.66Be; Homebuyer demand that exceeds our pace of supply
MMM Reports Q1 $2.65 v $2.33e, Rev $8.83B v $8.74Be; Raises FY22 outlook
VLO Reports Q1 $2.31 v $1.61e, Rev $38.5B v $32.1Be
GPK Reports Q1 $0.48 adj v $0.39e, Rev $2.25B v $2.10Be
RTX Reports Q1 $1.15 v $1.01e, Rev $15.7B v $15.8Be; Cuts FY22 Rev outlook citing sanctions on Russia
ADM Reports Q1 $1.90 v $1.35e, Rev $23.7B v $19.1Be; Expect reduced crop supplies "for the next few years"
GLW Reports Q1 $0.54 v $0.49e, Rev $3.68B v $3.56Be; Demand for Corning content has never been greater
PCAR Reports Q1 $1.72 v $1.51e, Rev $6.47B v $5.79Be
(DE) Germany Econ Min Habeck: Germany is very close to independence from Russian oil; Sees Germany prepared for a halt to Russian oil supplies
DHI Guides Q3 Rev $8.6-9.0B v $10Be, homes closed 21.5-22.5K, gross margin 29-29.5% - conf call comments
*(US) APR RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: 14 V 9E
*(US) MAR NEW HOME SALES: 763K V 768KE
*(US) APR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 107.3 V 108.2E
(PL) Reportedly Russia suspended gas supplies to Poland under the Yamal contract - Polish press
ML.FR Reports Q1 Rev €6.48B v €6.3Be
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Cuts Q1 GDP forecast to 0.4% from 1.3%
(US) Vice President Kamala Harris tests positive for COVID; Has not been in contact with Pres Biden due to recent travel schedules
(PL) Polish gas firm PGNIG: Russia to halt gas deliveries beginning Apr 27th; Halt is a breach of Yamal contract
TXN Reports Q1 $2.35 v $2.17e, Rev $4.91B v $4.71Be; Guides Q2 well below ests
MSFT Reports Q3 $2.22 adj v $2.18e, Rev $49.4B v $49.0Be
GOOGL Reports Q1 $24.62 v $25.69e, Rev $56.0B v $56.0Be; Announces additional up to $70B Class A and Class C share buyback
GM Reports Q1 $2.09 v $1.56e, Rev $36.0B v $36.3Be
V Reports Q2 $1.79 adj v $1.65e, Rev $7.19B v $6.84Be
*(AU) AUSTRALIA Q1 CPI Q/Q: 2.1% V 1.7%E; Y/Y: 5.1% V 4.6%E; Trimmed mean annual pace rises above target
WED 4/27
CSGN.CH Reports Q1 (CHF) Net -273M v -252M y/y, Pretax -428M v -757M y/y, Rev 4.41B v 7.57B y/y
DBK.DE Reports Q1 Net €1.06B v €0.91B y/y, Rev €7.33B v €7.23B y/y; CEO sees Ukraine crisis impacting FY results
MBG.DE Reports Q1 adj EBIT €5.3B v €4.8Be, Rev €34.9B v €33.6Be; Booked €709M in charges related to Russia in Q1
GSK.UK Reports Q1 Adj EPS £0.33 v £0.61e, Rev £9.78B v £9.43Be; Affirms guidance
(PL) Polish gas firm PGNIG: Reiterates Russian gas supply halt is a breach of Yamal contract
(RU) Russia's speaker of the State Duma Volodin: Russia should make other unfriendly countries pay for gas in RUB currency (ruble) and cut supplies if they refuse to do so
BG Reports Q1 $4.26 v $3.24e, Rev $15.9B v $15.9Be; Raises guidance
ADP Reports Q3 $2.21 v $2.07e, Rev $4.51B v $4.46Be; Raises FY22 outlook
GD Reports Q1 $2.61 v $2.49e, Rev $9.39B v $8.98Be
FISV Reports Q1 $1.40 v $1.35e, Rev $4.14B v $3.84Be
BA Reports Q1 -$2.75 v -$0.26e, Rev $14.0B v $16.0Be; Remains on track to generate positive cash flow for 2022; Confirms to delay of 777X production; Submitted 787 Dreamliner certification plan to FAA
*(US) MAR PRELIMINARY WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M: 2.3% V 1.5%E
(IN) Indonesia confirms ban on palm oil exports to begin April 28th
*(US) MAR PENDING HOME SALES M/M: -1.2% V -1.0%E; Y/Y: -8.9% V -8.1%E
*(US) DOE CRUDE: +0.7M V +0.5ME; GASOLINE: -1.6M V 0ME; DISTILLATE: -1.4M V 0ME
(RU) Russia reportedly planning referendums on the official accession of the self-proclaimed republics in Eastern Ukraine to Russian Federation in mid-May - Meduza
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Maintains Q1 GDP forecast at 0.4%
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Apr 23rd: 498K total units, -7.4% y/y
FB Reports Q1 $2.72 v $2.54e, Rev $27.9B v $28.2Be
F Reports Q1 $0.38 v $0.39e, Rev $34.5B v $28.9Be
URI Reports Q1 $5.73 v $5.28e, Rev $2.52B v $2.47Be
005930.KR Reports final Q1 (KRW) Net 11.3T v 7.09T y/y; Op 14.1T v 14.1T prelim (v 9.4T y/y); Rev 77.8T v 77.0T prelim (v 65.4T y/y)
THURS 4/28
*(DE) GERMANY APR CPI NORTH RHINE WESTPHALIA M/M: 0.6% V 2.7% PRIOR; Y/Y: 7.7% V 7.6% PRIOR
NOKIA.FI Reports Q1 non- IFRS EPS €0.07 v €0.07 y/y, Rev €5.35B v €5.27Be; Demand in end markets remains high
066570.KR Reports final Q1 (KRW) Net 1.23T v 998B y/y; Op1.88T v 1.88T prelim; Rev 21.1T v 21.1T prelim
SAN.FR Reports Q4 Business EPS €1.94 v €1.80e, Business Net €3.07B v €2.28Be, Rev €9.67B v €9.60Be
UNA.NL Reports Q1 Rev €13.8B v €12.33B y/y; Affirms FY22 guidance
TTE.FR Reports Q1 adj Net $9.0B v $6.8B y/y, Rev $68.6B v $43.8B y/y
(CN) China govt cuts coal import tariffs to zero; effective from May 1st 2022 to end-Mar 2023 - press
*(SE) SWEDEN CENTRAL BANK (RIKSBANK) RAISES REPO RATE BY 25BPS TO 0.25%; NOT EXPECTED; raises rate path outlook
(EU) Germany’s Uniper and Austria’s OMV reportedly plan to use Russian rouble (RUB) accounts for gas payments; Italy's Eni weighs options - FT
NOKIA.FI CEO: Supply chains are tight, but reason to hope there is an improvement in situation H2. Don't expect it to hit FY performance - post earnings comments
(UR) Ukraine adviser and negotiator Podolyak: Reiterates Ukraine will defend itself in any way, including strikes on the warehouses and bases of the killers in Russia; The world recognizes this right
TMO Reports Q1 $7.25 v $6.17e, Rev $11.8B v $10.6Be
LIN.DE Reports Q1 $2.93 v $2.78e, Rev $8.2B v $8.06Be; May incur impairment or other charges over Russia/Ukraine
MRK Reports Q1 $2.14 v $1.81e, Rev $15.9B v $15.0Be
CAT Reports Q1 $2.88 v $2.66e, Rev $13.6B v $13.5Be
PHM Reports Q1 $1.83 v $1.70e, Rev $3.19B v $3.05Be
CAT Guides Q2 Rev higher q/q, citing strong end user demand and pricing - earnings slides
LUV Reports Q1 -$0.32 v -$0.34e, Rev $4.7B v $4.66Be; Expects to be solidly profitable during remainder of 2022
IRM Reports FFO Q1 $0.91 v $0.70e, Rev $1.25B v $1.23Be
MCD Reports Q1 $2.28 v $2.18e, Rev $5.67B v $5.55Be
CMCSA Reports Q1 $0.86 v $0.80e, Rev $31.0B v $30.5Be
DPZ Reports Q1 $2.50 v $3.07e, Rev $1.01B v $1.02Be
*(DE) GERMANY APR PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.8% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 7.4% V 7.2%E
GWW Reports Q1 $7.07 v $6.17e, Rev $3.6B v $3.52Be; Raises FY guidance
TWTR Reports Q1 $0.90* v $0.04e, Rev $1.20B v $1.21Be; Will not provide outlook
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 180K V 180KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.41M V 1.40ME
*(US) Q1 ADVANCE GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: -1.4% V +1.0%E (below all analysts estimates); PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 2.7% V 3.5%E
*(US) Q1 ADVANCE GDP PRICE INDEX: 8.0% V 7.2%E; CORE PCE Q/Q: 5.2% V 5.5%E (Highest since 1981)
(US) Nevada reports Mar casino gaming Rev $1.36B, +26.8% y/y; Las Vegas strip Rev $746.2M, +48.8% y/y
HLAG.DE Reports prelim Q1 EBIT €4.3B, EBITDA €4.7B; Avg freight rate increased by ~80%; Raises FY22 outlook
(RU) Reportedly Germany has dropped opposition to EU embargo of Russian oil; Embargo now seen as imminent but no target date has been set - press
(UR) White House requests further $33B in additional aid for Ukraine through Sept
(US) Apr Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index: 25 v 35e
INTC Reports Q1 $0.87 v $0.80e, Rev $18.4B v $18.3Be; Affirms FY22 guidance
AMZN Reports Q1 -$7.56** (incl Rivian loss) v +$8.73e, Rev $116.4B v $117.0Be; Notes this year Prime Day to take place in July 2022
AAPL Reports Q2 $1.52 v $1.43e, Rev $97.3B v $94.5Be; Authorizes $90B increase to its share buyback program; Raises Quarterly dividend 4.5% to $0.23 from $0.22
AAPL CEO Cook: Supply constraints significantly lower in Q2 than in Q1 - press interview
FRI 4/29
(CN) China Politburo: Will prevent 'black swan' and 'grey rhino' events; Reiterates that domestic economy is facing increasing uncertainties and complexities; Striving to attain full year social and economic targets - China Press
BAS.DE Reports final Q1 Net €1.22B v €1.72B y/y, adj EBIT €2.82B v €2.32B y/y, Rev €23.1B v €19.4B y/y
*(FR) FRANCE Q1 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.0% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 5.3% V 5.5%E
ENI.IT Reports Q1 adj Net €3.27B v €270M y/y, adj Op €5.19B v €1.32B y/y, Rev €32.1B v €14.5B y/y
*(FR) FRANCE APR PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.4% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 4.8% V 4.6%E
*(ES) SPAIN Q1 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.3% V 0.6%E; Y/Y: 6.4% V 6.7%E
(CN) China said to end regulatory scrutiny over Big Tech and give sector bigger role in boosting slowing economy - SCMP
*(DE) GERMANY Q1 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.2% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 3.7% V 3.6%E (avoids a technical recession)
*(IT) ITALY Q1 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: -0.2% V -0.2%E; Y/Y: 5.8% V 5.8%E
3328.HK Reports Q1 (CNY) Net 23.3B v 22.0B y/y, Rev 73.7B v 68.4B y/y
*(EU) EURO ZONE APR ADVANCE CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: 7.5% V 7.5%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 3.5% V 3.2%E (annual pace matches the record high since Euro's launch)
CVX Reports Q1 $3.36 v $3.44e, Rev $54.4B v $47.0Be; To increase FY22 Capex by 50% or ~$1.5B
HON Reports Q1 $1.91 v $1.86e, Rev $8.38B v $8.35Be
(RU) Russia govt spokesperson Peskov: Considering idea of pegging the rouble (RUB) rate to gold prices
(RU) Russian govt spokesperson: Have considered pegging RUB currency (Ruble) to gold (**Note: response to question)
BMY Reports Q1 $1.96 v $1.92e, Rev $11.6B v $11.3Be; Cuts guidance
PSX Reports Q1 $1.32 v $1.14e; Saw substantially improved financial results from our operations in March and expect continued strong performance in Q2
(CN) China regulators reportedly plan to hold off rules limiting users' activity on mobile platforms - US financial press
*(US) Q1 EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX (ECI): 1.4% V 1.1%E
*(US) MAR PERSONAL INCOME: 0.5% V 0.4%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: 1.1% V 0.6%E
*(US) MAR PCE DEFLATOR M/M: 0.9% V 0.9%E; Y/Y: 6.6% V 6.7%E
(RU) Russia Finance Min Siluanov: Channeled $564.8M in US dollars to pay coupons on 2022 and 2042 eurobonds via London branch of Citibank
*(US) APR FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 65.2 V 65.7E
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Initial Q2 GDP forecast at 1.9%
(EU) EU countries reportedly likely to approve phased embargo on Russia oil as soon as next week - NY Times
(US) Mar Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE +3.1% v +4.0% m/m

Amid Central Bank Jawboning Stocks Falter Badly, Led By the NASDAQ

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Amid Central Bank Jawboning Stocks Falter Badly, Led By the NASDAQ

2022-04-22T16:03:28.65

US stock markets came out of the Easter holiday break on fairly solid footing, perhaps boosted by the end of tax season selling. Also, early season earnings reports provided some optimism, particularly among the industrials and other sectors closely attuned to the economic environment. Many firms posted surprisingly strong revenue beats, spurred by price increases, but remained cautious in terms of EPS, margins, and their near-term outlooks, despite highlighting a very robust demand environment. Sentiment was also potentially helped by a federal court ruling that cleared the way for the CDC to take down mask mandates, serving as major sign post that the US, at least, continues to move past the pandemic stage of Covid-19. Momentum reversed though, quite abruptly, following a debacle of an earnings report from Netflix which, along with another surge in global interest rates, brought about a significant sell-off in the NASDAQ that was never really able to regain any stability.

Another leg higher for global bond yields weighed on risk appetite heavily through the latter half of the week. The US 10-year yield approached 3% on a few occasions but was unsuccessful in breaching that mark for the first time since 2018. Nevertheless, rising inflation expectations spurred another bout of hawkish central bank speak on both sides of the Atlantic. Some ECB officials suggested a rate hike could be in the cards as early as July, signaling a hawkish shift, while the BOE opened the door to debating a 50 bps move at their next meeting. Fed officials, most notably Chairman Powell, remained vociferous ahead of their quiet period to take effect next week. By Friday, futures markets were pricing in three 50 basis point hikes at the next three consecutive FOMC meetings, while pundits begun to talk up the possibility of a 75bps move in May. Inflation expectations remained on the rise, signified by the US 10-year breakeven rate hitting another record high above 3%. The S&P fell back into correction territory and Dow dropped more than 1000 points on Friday as the VIX jumped more than 20% back above 25. The surge in volatility came after a particularly wild US trading session on Thursday, which saw S&P futures trade both above and below each of the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages. The last time this occurred was in late 2007 in the lead-up to the Great Recession. For the week, the S&P fell 2.75%, the Dow lost 1.9%, and the NASDAQ slumped 3.8%.

In corporate news this week, Bank of America saw a Q1 profit drop but an increase in loan demand across all segments and a boost in card customer travel spend. American Express saw a similar boost to T&E spending in the quarter after the Omicron variant faded away, as the credit card provider posted a beat on its Q1 top and bottom line. Netflix shares were crushed after the streaming giant projected losing customers in the Q2, with executives pointing to account-sharing and the departure from Russia as headwinds. Tesla once again posted record profits as the EV maker was able to outflank supply chain issues that have hampered the auto sector overall.

United Airlines shares lifted after the company said it’s seeing the strongest demand environment in decades. Snap reported weaker than expected profit as its leadership warned forward visibility is ‘as difficult today, or perhaps more difficult, than at any point in recent memory.’ Gap weighed on the retail sector after cutting its Q1 sales growth outlook and announcing changes at its Old Navy unit.

SUN 4/17
(EU) EU Commission President Von der Leyen: 6th package of sanctions against Russia to include oil sanctions and additional measures against Russian banking sector, in particular Sberbank - German press interview
(RU) Traders circulating video fragments from Russian state TV political shows that included some criticism of Russian Defense Ministry actions (including flagship Moskva sinking) and voiced calls not to prolong the war for the first time since invasion began on Feb 24th
(UR) Ukraine President Zelenskiy: Any Ukraine-Russia peace talks will end if Moscow eliminates Mariupol city fighters; Ukraine can fight Russia even for 10 years
(US) US and European countries working on new long-term strategy on relationship with Russia actively seeking its isolation and weakening - US press
(US) Interior Department Announces Significantly Reformed Onshore Oil and Gas Lease Sales; Raises royalty rate to 19% for first time in decades
(JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Gov Kuroda: Recent drop in JPY currency (Yen) has been 'very rapid'; Weak Yen is positive for the economy as a whole, rapid weakness drives negative effects

MON 4/18
(RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) Gov Nabiullina: We should be able to lower the key rate faster; Gradually easing capital controls, may ease rules for mandatory FX sales by exporters** by softening timing and volume of mandatory FX revenue sales
(RU) Austria Chancellor Nehammer: Pres Putin believes he is winning the war; Putin said it would be better the war ended earlier than later - interview
BAC Reports Q1 $0.80 v $0.76e, Rev $23.2B v $23.2Be
(LY) Libya official: 535Kbpd of domestic oil production is currently shut down
*(US) APR NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX: 77 V 77E
(US) Fed’s Bullard (voter, hawkish dissenter): Won't rule out 75 bps hike but not my base case; Hopeful balance sheet runoff can start at the coming meeting; Inflation is far too high for comfort
JBHT Reports Q1 $2.29 v $1.91e, Rev $3.49B v $3.26Be
(UR) Ukraine President Zelenskiy: Confirms active phase of the Russian offensive in Donbas began
CDC mask mandate overturned by federal court ruling, DHS will no longer require masks for air travel; Various companies have stopped mask mandate on domestic flights
(KR) Bank of Korea (BOK) Gov Nominee Rhee: Rate hikes should continue unless an issue for growth

TUES 4/19
(PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) member Wnorowski: See no end to rate hikes in coming months; Base Rate may rise to 7.50%
(FR) France Fin Min Le Maire: Embargo on Russian oil in the works; Hope to convince EU partners to stop importing Russian oil
(RU) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Confirms another stage of special military operation is beginning; Russia will only use conventional arms in Ukraine during this stage - Indian tv interview
(RU) Russian Defense Min Shoigu: Events in recent months show how important it is for Russia to continue to perfect its army
TRV Reports Q1 $4.22 v $3.70e, Rev $8.81B v $8.93Be; Raises Quarterly dividend 5.7% to $0.93 from $0.88 (indicated yield 2.01%)
MAN Reports Q1 $1.88 v $1.56e, Rev $5.14B v $5.11Be
ACC Confirms to be acquired by Blackstone for $65.47/shr in ~$12.8B deal; Suspends payment of its quarterly dividend, effective immediately
PLD Reports FFO Q1 $1.09 v $1.08e, Rev $1.22B v $1.09Be
*(US) MAR HOUSING STARTS: 1.793M V 1.740ME; BUILDING PERMITS: 1.873M V 1.820ME
*IMF WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK (WEO): CUTS 2022 GLOBAL GDP GROWTH FROM 4.4% TO 3.6%
(NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction Dairy Trade price index: -3.6% v -1.0% prior
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Raises Q1 GDP forecast to 1.3% from 1.1%
NFLX Reports Q1 $3.53 v $2.92e, Rev $7.87B v $7.94Be; Plans to accelerate viewing and Rev growth; To present proposal to declassify board in June meeting for Netflix to evolve to a more standard large cap company governance structure
RIO.AU Reports Q1 Pilbara iron ore shipments 71.5Mt v 73.1Mte (v 77.8Mt y/y); Pilbara iron production 71.7Mt v 76.4Mt y/y
*(CN) CHINA PBOC MONTHLY LOAN PRIME RATE (LPR) SETTING: LEAVES BOTH 1-YEAR AND 5-YEAR RATES UNCHANGED AT 3.70% AND 4.60% RESPECTIVELY [not expected]

WEDS 4/20
ASML.NL Reports Q1 Net €1.73 v €1.60e, Rev €3.53B v €3.48Be; Guides Q2 below consensus
BN.FR Reports Q1 Rev €6.24B v €5.66B y/y
BN.FR CEO: supply chain issues in North America are stabilizing - post earnings commnets
(RU) Reportedly some Kremlin elites realize the Ukraine war is a catastrophic mistake and worry Pres Putin could order a tactical nuclear strike - press
(JP) BOJ reportedly set to look past the weakening Japanese yen (JPY) and leave its forward guidance unchanged at the Apr 27-28 policy meeting - MNI News
(RU) Russia Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova: Russia has lost confidence in Ukrainian negotiators
ANTM Reports Q1 $8.25 v $7.81e, Rev $38.1B v $37.4Be
PG Reports Q3 $1.33 v $1.29e, Rev $19.4B v $18.7Be; Sees repurchasing of $10B of shares during FY22
(RU) Reportedly EU preparing impact assessment on Russia oil embargo, talking to suppliers; Germany remains the key opponent to oil ban, suggesting nuclear fuel embargo instead for 6th EU sanction package against Russia - financial press
ABT Reports Q1 $1.73 v $1.47e, Rev $11.9B v $11.1Be
(DE) ECB's Nagel (Germany, hawk): ECB could raise rates early in Q3; Stagflation scenario must be avoided
TATA.IN European unit to stop doing business with Russia; Says they have sourced alternative supplies of raw materials - press
*(US) MAR EXISTING HOME SALES: 5.77M V 5.77ME
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -8.0M V +2ME; GASOLINE: -0.8M V -1ME; DISTILLATE: -2.7M V -1ME
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Apr 16th: 490K total units, -8.1% y/y
*(US) TREASURY $16B 20-YEAR BOND REOPENING DRAWS 3.095% V 2.651% PRIOR, BID-TO-COVER 2.80 V 2.72 PRIOR AND 2.44 OVER LAST 8 REOPENINGS
RAD Reportedly rejected a $14.60/shr takeover bid this month from Spear Point Capital; Spear Point now mulling launching hostile tender offer directly to shareholders - NY Post
AA Reports Q1 $3.06 v $2.99e, Rev $3.29B v $3.50Be
UAL Reports Q1 -$4.24 v -$4.19e, Rev $7.57B v $7.68Be; Sees strongest demand environment in decades
(CN) China President Xi: China to push for free trade agreements with more countries; Global Economic recovery is weak; Calls for coordinated macroeconomic and coronavirus policies among countries - Boao forum comments

THURS 4/21
ABBN.CH Reports Q1 $0.31 v $0.29e, Rev $6.97B v $7.09Be
NESN.CH Reports Q1 (CHF) Rev 22.2B v 21.7Be
(RU) Russia Defense Min Shoigu: Russian forces have captured Mariupol but there are still more than 2,000 Ukrainian fighters in Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol; Agree with Pres Putin to cancel plans to storm the Azovstal plant - meeting with Putin
(RU) Austria and its main oil firm OMV stopped importing and refining oil from Russia in Mar - Russian press
CON.DE Reports Q1 Rev €9.3B v €8.7Be y/y; Cuts FY22 adj EBIT outlook citing cost inflation
*(EU) EURO ZONE MAR FINAL CPI Y/Y: 7.4% V 7.5%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 2.9% V 3.0%E
DOW Reports Q1 $2.32 v $2.02e, Rev $15.3B v $14.4Be
(DE) German Foreign Min Baerbock: There are no taboos for Germany with regard to weapons and heavy weaponry which Ukraine needs
T Reports Q1 (Ex WarnerMedia) $0.63 v $0.61e, Rev $29.7B v $29.0Be
WSO Reports Q1 $2.90 v $1.82e, Rev $1.52B v $1.38Be
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 184K V 180KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.42M V 1.46ME
*(US) APR PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK: 17.6 V 21.4E
(UK) BOE's Mann (hawkish): Looking at whether a larger than 25bps move is necessary; Key for May meeting is assessing drag on economy
TWTR Elon Musk (9.1% holder) discloses has received commitment letters committing to provide an aggregate of ~$46.5B for takeover; Has not commenced or determined to commence any tender offer for shares of Twitter; May take additional steps as appropriate - 13D/A filing
(US) Pres Biden: New $800M aid package to Ukraine includes dozens of Howitzers, ammunition, drones, and heavy artillery; Putin will never succeed in occupying Ukraine
(US) Fed Chair Powell: Volcker understood role played by price expectations, understood importance of Fed independence
(US) Fed's Daly (non-voter, dove): Reiterates rates expeditiously marching towards neutral; Sees likely hiking by 50bps at "couple of meetings"
KER.FR Reports Q1 Rev €4.96B v €4.6Be
(RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR): Extends measures to soften FX currency controls to all export-focused companies
(US) Fed Chair Powell: 50bps hike will be on the table for May meeting; It is appropriate to be moving quickly - IMF panel comments
(CA) Canada PM Trudeau to implement two-year ban on foreign home-buying; Also to raise taxes for people who sell their home within a year
(UK) Apr GfK Consumer Confidence: -38 v -33e (lowest since July 2008)
(CN) Shanghai reports 403 [out of 666] key businesses have resumed production; lockdown will be lifted in batches once zero-COVID is reached at the community level
(CN) Reportedly China Securities Regulator (CSRC) has encouraged larger investors in China to purchase more equities in an effort to prop up the market during the sell off; Comments came during a meeting held on Apr 21st - Press

FRI 4/22
(JP) Japan Fin Min Suzuki and US Treasury Sec Yellen said to have likely to have discussed coordinated currency intervention during talks; Sounded as if the US side would consider idea positively - Japanese press
RNO.FR Reports Q1 Rev €9.75B v €9.20Be; To provide update to strategy at CMD in fall 2022
SAP.DE Reports prelim Q1 (Non-IFRS) EPS €1.00 v €1.13e, Op profit €1.68B v €1.74B y/y, Cloud Rev +31%, Rev €7.08B v €6.92Be
*(UK) MAR RETAIL SALES (EX-AUTO/FUEL) M/M: -1.1% V -0.4%E; Y/Y: -0.6% V +0.8%E
*(FR) FRANCE APR PRELIMINARY PMI MANUFACTURING: 55.4 V 53.7E (17th month of expansion)
*(DE) GERMANY APR PRELIMINARY PMI MANUFACTURING: 54.1 V 54.5E (22nd month of expansion but lowest since Aug 2020)
*(EU) EURO ZONE APR PRELIMINARY PMI MANUFACTURING: 55.3 V 54.9E (22nd month of expansion)
(RU) Russia Defense Min Deputy Head Minnekayev: Plan to take full control of Donbas and Southern Ukraine** as part of second phase of military operation; Planning to secure land passage to Crimea
*(UK) APR PRELIMINARY PMI MANUFACTURING: 55.3 V 54.0E (23rd month of expansion)
(EU) ECB chief Lagarde said to have told Council members to hold back on 'personal dissenting' views on decisions until the Monday after the decisions are published - financial press
(CN) China Apr gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel consumption said to have dropped 20% y/y (biggest decline since pandemic) - press
SLB Reports Q1 $0.34 v $0.32e, Rev $5.96B v $5.89Be; Sees positive outlook extends further into 2023; Raises Quarterly dividend 40% to $0.175 from $0.125 (indicated yield 1.72%)
AXP Reports Q1 $2.73 v $2.44e, Rev $11.74B v $11.7Be

Ukraine war and Fed policy minutes keep markets under pressure

TradeTheNews.com 

 Weekly Market Update: Ukraine war and Fed policy minutes keep markets under pressure

2022-04-08T16:04:26.217

Markets opened the week unsettled amid ongoing consternation surrounding the Ukraine war as well as US Federal Reserve policy. Crude oil prices rose in the early part of the week as another round of Western sanctions on Russia was being contemplated following the unearthing of atrocities committed by Russian forces in Bucha. Europeans openly discussed a mandatory phase out of imported coal to go along with additional measures to strength energy sanctions. Western officials also stepped up their rhetoric surrounding President Putin reiterating their belief that war crimes, and potential genocide is being committed by Russia. The pressure seemed to have little baring on the ground though. By Friday, reports circulated that dozens has been killed in Russia missile attack on Ukraine railway station in Kramatorsk which was being used as an evacuation center.

US Treasury yields were jolted higher on Tuesday when Vice Chair nominee Brainard’s hawkish commentary caught investors’ attention, presaging the March FOMC minutes. Wednesday’s minutes essentially supported what we have heard from a full throated chorus of Fed officials of late. Namely, a 50 bps cut remains firmly on the table and is possible in May when the Fed is likely to begin cutting back on the balance sheet as well. According to the minutes, the monthly cap on drawdowns will likely rise to $95B by this summer, but to date officials have not decided the target size for the balance sheet at the end of the process. Increasingly aggressive calls by both Fed officials and forecasters on rates continued to push yields higher as the week progressed. By Friday, US 10-year Treasury yield rose for a sixth consecutive day, notching a new three-year high above 2.7% which resulted in an unwind in the recent curve inversion for the benchmark 2/10 year spread. Oil prices ended the week only modestly higher, with WTI below $100/bbl. For the week, the S&P fell 1.3%, the DJIA slipped 0.3%, and the Nasdaq was dove 3.9%.

In corporate news this week, newly reinstated Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz announced he would halt stock buybacks in order to invest in employees and stores, as unionization efforts accelerate at some of its locations. Costco shares hit a new 52-week high after the store chain announced double digit growth in March same store sales. Twitter added Elon Musk to its board of directors after the Tesla CEO disclosed a large position earlier in the week, though Musk will be limited to taking a 14.9% stake while he serves on the social media giant’s board. Spirit Airlines confirmed receipt of an unsolicited $33/share all-cash takeover offer from JetBlue Airways, throwing a wrench in its planned merger with Frontier Airlines.


SUN 4/3
(EU) Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania stopped imports of Russian gas from Apr 1st - press
(RU) Russian Pres Putin said to be under pressure to achieve victory in eastern Ukraine by Russian holiday Victory Day on May 9th - CNN
(RU) Russia govt spokesman Peskov: Russia will demand Rouble (RUB) payments for other goods; Russia does not want to make life difficult for Western purchasers of Russian gas
MON 4/4
(UK) FCA: To review LME approach on suspension and resumption in Nickel Trading; sees exchange remaining vigilant until situation resolved
SBUX Founder and incoming CEO Howard Schultz decides to suspend stock repurchasing program, effectively immediately
TWTR Tesla CEO Musk reports 9.2% passive stake - 13G filing
(US) US to seek Russia's suspension from UN Human Rights Council - press
(UK) Chancellor of the Exchequer (Fin Min) Sunak: It is my ambition to make the UK a global hub for cryptoasset technology
CCL Reports one-week period of March 28-April 3 was its busiest booking week in the company's history (double-digit increase from the previous record 7-day booking total)
TUES 4/5
(PE) Peru President Castillo declares state of emergency in Lima and Callao; to enforce curfew on Apr 6th due to inflation protests
(EU) EU's Dombrovskis: Sanction discussions on Russia to include energy sector with oil, coal sanctions as an option
(UR) EU's Foreign Policy Chief Borrell and EU Commission President Von der Leyen to travel to Kyiv this week - press
(RU) EU reportedly to ban Russian trucks and vessels from entering the EU; To block all transactions with VTB bank and other three Russian banks already excluded from SWIFT messaging system - press
(DE) Germany Finance Min Lindner: EU did Not find deal on corporate tax today; Poland vetoed 15% min tax implementation by 2023
(CN) Reportedly China urges Shanghai to ensure port, shipping operations - press
(UR) Czech Republic reportedly sent several T-72 tanks and BVP-1 infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine - Czech TV
TWTR Adds Elon Musk to board of directors; To limit Musk stake to 14.9% while he serves on Board (currently 9.2% stake)
*(US) MAR ISM SERVICES INDEX: 58.3 V 58.5E
(US) Fed’s Brainard (vice chair nominee): Expects balance sheet to shrink considerably more rapidly than prior recovery; Fed ready to take stronger action if inflation and inflation expectations indicators suggest need for such action
(US) Fed's George (FOMC voter, hawk): A 50bps hike will be an option we have to consider; Fed may have to go above neutral to bring inflation down - TV interview
(NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction Dairy Trade price index: -1.0% v -0.9% prior
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Cuts Q1 GDP forecast to 0.9% from 1.5%
SAVE Confirms receipt of unsolicited $33/shr all-cash proposal from JetBlue Airways
*(CN) CHINA MAR CAIXIN PMI SERVICES: 42.0 V 49.7E (1st contraction in 7 months and lowest level in two years)
WEDS 4/6
(RU) Russia govt spokesman Peskov: If there is to be a successful negotiation between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations, there will have to be a meeting between Putin and Zelensky at the highest level - French tv interview
(RU) Russia Finance Min Siluanov: Had to pay Roubles (RUB) to holders of 2022 and 2042 eurobonds as foreign bank rejected to process FX payment in amount of $649.2M
(CN) China oil firms Sinopec, CNOOC and Petrochina reportedly stay away from trading new Russian cargoes for May loadings; Some independent refiners continue ESPO** crude imports - press
(CN) China vows use of monetary policy tools to aid domestic economy at the proper time and in a flexible way - Chinese media
(DE) German Chancellor Scholz: Confidentially discussing possible security guarantees with Ukraine; Not making any preparations to postpone exit from nuclear power - speaking in Berlin
(RU) UN to vote on suspending Russia from United Nations Human Rights council - press
Reportedly US banks, including Wells Fargo and Bank of America debating a plan to use Zelle to challenge Visa and Mastercard; Plan to expand Zelle to merchant payments - press
TM North America sales exec: See US sales of 15.5M units in 2022 vs 16.5M y/y, citing supply chain headwinds
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Apr 2nd: 502.2K total units, -2.7% y/y
(US) USPS raises price of First-Class Mail Forever stamp by 6.5% from 58 cents to 60 cents, effective July 10th
*(US) FOMC MAR MINUTES: OFFICIALS GENERALLY EYED MONTHLY $60B CAP FOR TREASURY DRAWDOWN AND $35B FOR MBS DRAWDOWN; MANY ON FED WOULD HAVE SOUGHT 50BPS MARCH HIKE IF NOT FOR UKRAINE WAR
COST Reports Mar total SSS +12.2% (ex-gas and FX)
005930.KR Reports Prelim Q1 (KRW) Op 14.1T v 13.4Te (highest Q1 Op since 2018); Rev 77.0T v 75.0Te (Rev record high)
HPQ Berkshire Hathaway files Form 3, reports purchase of ~121M shares in the co.[~11.4% stake]
(US) Reportedly House speaker Pelosi in talks to visit Taiwan [would be the first US House Speaker to visit Taiwan in 25 years] - press
THURS 4/7
066570.KR Reports Q1 (KRW) Op 1.88T v 1.52T y/y; Rev 21.1T v 18.81T y/y
(CN) China Foreign Min spokesperson Zhao Lijian: US House Speaker Pelosi should immediately cancel her trip plan to Taiwan
(RU) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Ukraine presented new proposals and new draft agreement on Apr 6th, different from Istanbul ones; Ukraine proposes to discuss Crimea, Donbas status which is unacceptable
STZ Reports Q4 $2.37 adj v $2.15e, Rev $2.10B v $2.02Be; Plans $500M share repurchases in Q1
CAG Reports Q3 $0.58 v $0.57e, Rev $2.90B v $2.84Be; Guides Q4 gross inflation* 16%
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 166K V 200KE (lowest since 1968); CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.523M V 1.302ME
(US) Speaker Pelosi tests positive for COVID-19, trip to Asia postponed to a later date
(RU) Russia govt spokesperson Peskov: We have had significant losses of troops in Ukraine, its a tragedy - TV interview
(US) Senate confirms Biden nominee Ketanji Brown Jackson to Supreme Court by 53-47 vote (as expected)
(EU) EU reportedly to support Russian coal embargo in fifth round of sanctions - press
*(US) FEB CONSUMER CREDIT: $41.8B V $18.1BE (record level)
TSLA CEO Musk: Trailing 12-month deliveries >1.0M; Tesla seeking to produce 500K Model Y at Texas factory, to start Cybertruck production next year
AAPL Reportedly orders for the 5G iPhone SE and AirPods are stable - Digitimes
FRI 4/8
(DE) German Chancellor Scholz reportedly delaying a final decision over whether to give Ukraine high-end tanks for its battle against Russia. initially expected this week - Politico
MAERSKB.DK Launches Maersk Air Cargo unit; Expected to be fully operational as of H2 2022
*(RU) RUSSIA CENTRAL BANK (CBR) CUTS KEY 1-WEEK AUCTION RATE BY 300BPS TO 17.00% (INTRA-POLICY MOVE); Says further rate cuts possible during upcoming meetings
(EU) EU adopts 5th round of sanctions against Russia, including ban on Russian coal import from Aug 2022 and banning Russian vessels from EU ports
(EU) Reportedly EU has already started working on the 6th package of sanctions against Russia; Next objectives could be uranium and/or oil sanctions via monthly reductions, tariffs or escrow accounts, or a combination - press
(UR) Slovakia PM: Delivered its sole S-300 air defence system to Ukraine
*(CA) CANADA MAR NET CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT: +72.5K V +79.9KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 5.3% V 5.4%

Equities churn sideways while yield curve sees more inversions

TradeTheNews.com 

 Weekly Market Update: Equities churn sideways while yield curve sees more inversions

2022-04-01T16:11:25.14

US indices came into the final week of Q1 riding momentum. Investors have looked past concerns about inflation, Ukraine, and increasingly hawkish global central banks by adding to beaten down stock portfolios heading into quarter end. That momentum waned though, as the VIX pushed back above 20 and Treasury yields remained elevated. The US yield curve saw inversions spread and deepen into and after another strong US employment report on Friday. The March jobs report showed labor demand remained strong, and wage growth continued to run above the Fed’s comfort zone. The participation rate ticked up for the second straight month while the unemployment rate fell to a new post-pandemic low. Fed watchers were quick reiterate calls that front loaded rate hikes will be required in the current Fed tightening cycle. Also, hot inflation readings across Europe prompted multiple ECB officials to talk about the increased likelihood of rate hikes later this year putting upward pressure on yields across the EU. By Friday, the closely watched US Treasury 2/10 year spread yield inverted by 7 basis points resulting in a growing number of Wall Street analysts forecasting a possible recession.

Global crude oil prices fell back towards $100/barrel amid continued back and forth reporting on ongoing peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. Russia officials indicated that they would drastically cut military activity near Kyiv and Chernihiv after getting a new security proposal from Ukraine that would keep them from joining NATO. But any good will from those talks dissipated quickly as the week progressed with no direct commentary from President Putin and continued discontent expressed by the West. Also a game of chicken drew on as European officials remained adamant they would not bend to President Putin’s demand that EU countries find a way to pay for Russian gas supplies in rubles. Russia appeared to blink, or at least punt, after spokesman Peskov said any payments on gas deliveries due after Apr 1st won’t be necessary until the second half of April and May. For the week, the S&P edged up 0.1%, the DJIA slipped 0.1%, and the Nasdaq added 0.7%.

In corporate news this week, Micron shares were volatile after reporting a top and bottom line beat of expectations but warning that chip shortages could extend into next year. FedEx shares gained some ground on the announcement that Raj Subramaniam will become CEO, though shares sold off after the initial bump, even though one report said that activists could still get involved after the management change. China tech ADRs gained ground on Friday after reports that China will consider giving US regulators full access to audits of most Chinese firms by mid-year.

In M&A news, ratings expert Nielsen agreed to be bought by private equity for $16B, subject to a 45 day ‘go shop’ period. In-home patient-focused healthcare provider LHC Group was acquired by UnitedHealth in a $5.4B cash deal. Workplace collaboration solutions provider Poly agreed to merge with HP in a $3.3B deal. GM and other auto makers reported double digit y/y declines in March vehicle sales.


SUN 3/27
(US) Biden administration to call for new minimum tax on billionaires including tax on unrealized gains – press
(CN) Shanghai Port [largest port in the world based on cargo throughput] will maintain 24 hour ops during lockdown - Press
MON 3/28
(RU) Russia Pres Putin orders Russian govt, Gazprom and Russian Central Bank to report on the change in the currency of payment for gas supplies to Rubles (RUB) by Mar 31st - Russian press
(JP) YEN BRIEFLY WEAKENED AGAINST USD TO TEST KEY 125 LEVEL (1st test of this level in 7 years)
(UR) Ukrainian and Russian negotiators reportedly discussing pause in hostilities as part of deal along with Ukraine abandoning NATO
Fedex Raj Subramaniam promoted to President and CEO, effective June 1st; Frederick Smith to serve as Exec Chairman
TUES 3/29
(UR) Ukraine negotiators: Ukraine suggested new security guarantee system at today's talks with Russia; Sees Turkey as key security guarantor; Reiterates referendum will be needed, offers Russia to discuss Crimea
(RU) Russia negotiator Medinskiy: To 'drastically, cardinally' cut military activity near Kyiv and Chernihiv; Putin-Zelenskiy meeting is possible after pact approved by Foreign Ministers ready; Talks were constructive and now in practical phase - statement on peace talks with Ukraine
(US) MAR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 107.2 V 107.0E
MU Reports Q2 $2.14 v $1.95e, Rev $7.79B v $7.51Be
WED 3/30
(DE) GERMANY MAR CPI NORTH RHINE WESTPHALIA M/M: 2.7% V 1.0% PRIOR; Y/Y: 7.6% V 5.3% PRIOR
TSM Chairman: Will not revise down sales forecast and Capex for 2022; China consumer electronics demand impacted by lockdown; to rearrange production priorities amid new demand profile; affirms still maintains production in Shanghai despite lockdown
(US) White House reportedly considering using Emergency Production Act to develop battery metal supplies – press
(CN) CHINA MAR PMI MANUFACTURING (GOVT OFFICIAL): 49.5 V 49.8E (First contraction in 5 months)
THRS 3/31
(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 202K V 196KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.31M V 1.34ME
(RU) Russia President Putin: Signed decree on gas for Rouble trade, payments for gas supplies to start from April 1st
(US) Biden Adminstration confirms largest oil reserve release in US history, to release 1M bbl/day over the next six months

FRI 4/1
(EU) EURO ZONE MAR ADVANCE CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: 7.5% V 6.7%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 3.0% V 3.1%E
(CN) China reportedly considers to give US full access to audits of most US-listed Chinese firms in mid-2022 – press
(RU) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Russia is preparing a response to Ukraine's proposals, there is a movement forward - speaking in India
(RU) Russia govt spokesman Peskov: Payments on gas deliveries due after Apr 1st come in second half of April and May
(US) MAR CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: +431K V +490KE
(US) MAR UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 3.6% V 3.7%E (post-pandemic low)
(US) MAR AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M: 0.4% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 5.6% V 5.5%E
GM Reports Q1 sales 512.8K vehicles, -14.7% y/y
AMZN

Fed clarity and China policy changes trigger market reversal into options expiry

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Fed clarity and China policy changes trigger market reversal into options expiry

2022-03-18T16:09:48.05

Stock markets built on the momentum coming out of last week despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Ukraine conflict. A continued easing in commodity prices, most notably crude appeared to underscore improving sentiment early on. Also, Chinese stocks saw a dramatic bounce after Premier Liu He, in a speech, promised to keep equity markets stable while also opening the door to additional stimulus measures for the Chinese economy (though specific policy changes are yet to be announced). Early in the week a narrative held that Ukraine and Russian negotiators were both giving positive assessments on progress being made in difficult peace talks. That narrative began to take on water as the week progressed in light of continued developments on the ground and, in particular, a defiant and bellicose address from President Putin. On Friday, Presidents Biden and Xi discussed Ukraine and Taiwan in a 2-hour call that, according to both sides, went well but offered little in terms of deliverables. Gold prices retreated and the US dollar softened as the week progressed.

As expected, on Wednesday the US Federal Reserve commenced a tightening cycle with a 25 basis point hike. Importantly, updated Fed forecasts now have the median FOMC official projecting the Fed Funds rate to rise to nearly 2% by the end of this year and exceeding the neutral rate of around 2.5% for both 2023 and 2024. In his press conference, Chairman Powell seemed to indicate that the balance sheet reduction plan will be announced at the May meeting, while emphasizing the FOMC is “acutely aware of” and “determined” to contain inflation. The clearly hawkish signal may have been blunted by the fact futures markets had already priced in 6 or 7 rate hikes this year while others noted with the Fed’s path now clearer much of the message may have already been priced into stocks. Following the Fed announcement the NASDAQ rebound gained momentum and the US yield curve flattened, highlighted by a brief inversions in the 5/10 year spread. Also on the Central Bank beat, the BOE raised rates, as expected, but the announcement included one dovish dissenter who wanted to see rates stay pat which put modest downward pressure on Gilt yields. For the week, the S&P rebounded 6.2%, the DJIA gained 5.5%, and the Nasdaq surged 8.2%.

In corporate news this week, Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson announced he would step down, with former CEO Shultz returning to serve as interim CEO in early April. Toyota cut its April global production estimates by 17% and said it was uncertain how many vehicles would be impacted by Japan’s recent earthquake that caused power outages. Ford reportedly told dealers it sees lighter deliveries through May as suppliers are not providing parts on time. Both Uber and Lyft announced new fuel charges to ease the load on drivers as gas prices spike, while FedEx implement a fuel surcharge increase to offset higher fuel costs. FedEx also reported a miss on its top line as profit margins were hit from delivery network expansion and new customer intake, while labor costs continued to rise and the peak shipping season was lighter than anticipated.

Pfizer and BioNTech sought Emergency Use Authorization for an additional booster dose of their COVID-19 vaccine for older adults, while Moderna asked the FDA to authorize a second booster for adults of all ages. Netflix moved closer to shutting down the ability to share passwords across households, as it launches a pilot program in some Latin American countries that would force such users to pay an ‘extra member’ fee. In M&A news, the bidding for Kohl’s heated up with reports that Sycamore and Hudson Bay could make an offer in the high $60's. Nielsen shares jumped after reports that a consortium including Elliott is in late stage talks to acquire it for around $15B including debt.


SUN 3/13
(IQ) Iran launches salvo of missiles into Iraq; 12 reportedly land near US consulate in Erbil, Kurdistan province of Iraq; no injuries reported
(RU) Russia Central Bank says trading on MOEX will not resume for week of March 14-18th
(IN) Reportedly US ready to seek nuclear agreement without Russia; Will not rule out interim or replica deal; Scope of differences on Iran deal are sanctions relief on Iran - financial press
F Reportedly informed dealers that its deliveries will be lighter until end-May citing 37 suppliers which failed to provide parts as scheduled; Expects FY22 deliveries at 1.66M v 1.9M y/y - press
*(RU) RUSSIA NEGOTIATOR SLUTSKY: ACCORDING TO MY PERSONAL EXPECTATIONS, IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, PROGRESS IN RUSSIA-UKRAINE TALKS MAY DEVELOP INTO A JOINT POSITION OF THE DELEGATIONS AND INTO DOCUMENTS TO SIGN
(CN) China reports 3,122 new COVID-19 cases on Mar 13th (highest in nearly 2 years) - press
(UR) Lviv governor Kozytzskyi: 35 people were killed and 134 injured in the Russian air strike on Yavoriv, western Ukraine on Mar 13th (**Note: Yavoriv is ~25km from Poland-Ukraine border)
(DE) Germany Econ Min Habeck: Germany would stop most Russian oil imports by end-2022, Russian coal imports by fall 2022; It’s hard to halt imports of Russian gas - press interview
(RU) Russia Fin Min Siluanov: Nearly half (~$300B) of Russia's gold and FX reserves were frozen due to Western sanctions
(CN) China places city of Shenzhen (17.5M of residents, major tech hub, 4th world's largest container port) into a lockdown to last until Mar 20 - press
*(RU) According to US officials, Russia had asked China for military equipment and other assistance since the start of Ukraine's invasion; Reportedly there were signs that Russia was running out of some kinds of weaponry - FT
(US) White House National Sec Adviser Sullivan to meet China’s top foreign policy official Yang Jiechi in Rome, Italy on Monday, Mar 14th - press
TSLA CEO Musk: Tesla and SpaceX seeing significant inflation pressure; Inflation pressure being seen in Logistics and materials
2354.TW Suspends production in Shenzhen; resumption of business depends on Govt approval; attempting to mitigate the effects of the lockdown by reassigning production to other sites - press
MON 3/14
VOW3.DE Exec: suspended production at plants in China's city Changchun from Mar 14th to Mar 17th due to COVID-19 outbreaks
(RU) Ukraine Presidential adviser: To discuss peace, ceasefire, immediate withdrawal of troops and security guarantees during next round of talks with Russia; Ukraine's position is unchanged
(IN) India said to be considering to accept Russian offer to buy its crude oil and other commodities at discounted prices with payment via an Indian rupee-Russian ruble (INR-RUB) transaction - press
(UK) Omicron sub-variant 'Deltacron' BA.2 variant said to be almost as infectious as measles (one of the most contagious diseases in human history) - UK press
(IL) Israel Foreign Min Lapid: Israel won't be used as a means to bypass the sanctions on Russia - press
Reportedly Chinese tycoon nearing loan to backstop short Nickel trade - press
(RU) Russia Pres Putin signs law on registering rights to foreign planes being leased by Russian companies - Russian press
(RU) Russia govt spokesperson Peskov: All the plans of Russia in Ukraine will be fulfilled in full and the time frames outlined; Russia did not request China military aid for operation
(EU) EU to place new sanctions on Rosneft, Gazprom Neft, and Transneft to block their investments in fossil fuels but new rules still allow EU to buy oil from Russian oil companies - press
(RU) Russia may suspend grain exports until June 30th - Russian press
(US) Small but growing number of Californians reportedly going 'off the grid' amid wildfires and higher electricity bills - NYT
(US) Sen Manchin (D-WV): Unable to support nomination of Sarah Bloom Raskin to Federal Reserve
(US) Treasury Dep Sec: US options still on the table for Russia include a full trade embargo, blocking access to international waterways, prohibitions on nickel, uranium, titanium, and crypto - CNBC
(US) US nears agreement to allow Venezuelan oil-for-debt swaps by Chevron, ENI, Repsol, with further action by Venezuela; New license would allow Chevron a 'more active role' in Venezuela - press
LME Statement: Nickel contracts to resume trading on March 16th at 02:00 EST (06:00AM GMT); To impose 15% limit on daily price moves across all metals
(CN) China confirms total 3,602 coronavirus cases v 1,437 prior
(RU) Estonia said to be the first NATO member nation to have a body formally call for the implementation of a no-fly zone amid Russia’s war on Ukraine
TSLA Said to have increased prices for certain China made Model 3 and Model Y vehicles by up to CNY20K in China; Increases prices of 'all' models in US, second increase in 1-week - press
TUES 3/15
(UR) Ukraine Presidential Advisor Arestovich: Think an agreement between Russia and Ukraine can be concluded within one to two weeks, in other case in early May when Russia runs out of resources
GAZP.RU Reportedly Russia's Yamal-Europe gas pipeline suspends flows - press
(IR) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: An agreement of revival of Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) is on the finishing path; Received written assurances from US that sanctions will not hinder cooperation within framework of nuclear deal
*(DE) GERMANY MAR ZEW CURRENT SITUATION SURVEY: -21.4 V -22.5E; EXPECTATIONS SURVEY: -39.3 V +5.0E
ECL Announces a temporary global 8%-12% energy surcharge; Effective Apr 1st, 2022; Took a wide range of productivity actions to improve our efficiency and reduce its costs to help offset the strong inflationary challenges and subsequent pricing
MAERSKB.DK CEO: Maersk is no longer buying Russian shipping fuel; Expects to finish last bookings to Russia by end-Apr 2022
*(US) MAR EMPIRE MANUFACTURING: -11.8 V +6.1E (moves back into negative readings and lowest reading since May 2020)
*(US) FEB PPI FINAL DEMAND M/M: 0.8% V 0.9%E; Y/Y: 10.0% V 10.0%E
(CN) Saudi Arabia said to be in talks to price oil sales to China in CNY currency (Yuan) - press
(NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction Dairy Trade price index: -0.9% v +5.1% prior
(RU) Russia Pres Putin: Kyiv is not serious about finding a mutually acceptable solution
WEDS 3/16
*(CN) China Vice Premier Liu He: Promises to keep equity markets stable; Will continue to support overseas share listings - Xinhua
(SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Gov Ingves: Rate hike to come sooner than 2024; inflation is far too high at this time and likely to gap further
(UR) Ukraine Presidential Advisor: Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in several operational areas, radically changing situation
EQNR.NO Announces new measures to maintain high gas exports to Europe; Increased production permits allow the high gas production from the Troll, Oseberg and Heidrun fields to be maintained through the summer months
(RU) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Peace talks with Ukraine are not easy, but there are certain hope for compromise; Some formulation of agreements with Ukraine are close to being agreed
(RU) Russian delegation member: negotiations with Ukraine are difficult and slow, but Russia wants peace as soon as possible
(UK) US and UK said to launch bilateral trade and investment dialogues next week - US financial press
(DE) German Bundesbank Gov Nagel (hawk): Does not expect stagflation nor see any wage-price spiral - financial press
(US) US said to be considering to provide Ukraine with guided missiles, including drones such as AeroVironment's Switchblades - press
JBL Reports Q2 $1.67 v $1.47e, Rev $7.55B v $7.41Be; Guides Q3 and initial FY22 strong
SBUX CEO Keven Johnson to step down; Founder and former CEO Shultz to serve as interim CEO; effective April 4th - ahead of Annual Meeting
*(US) FEB ADVANCE RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.3% V 0.4%E; RETAIL SALES (EX-AUTO) M/M: 0.2% V 0.9%E
*(US) MAR NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX: 79 V 81E
(JP) Earthquake reported off coast of Japan near Fukushima; Earthquake said to shake buildings in Tokyo - press
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: raises Q1 GDP forecast to 1.2% from 0.5%
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Mar 12th: 496K total units, -4.7% y/y
NFLX To pilot program that would force subscribers who share account outside their households to pay more; Will be initially tested in Central and South America - Variety
(US) Pres Biden: New assistance to Ukraine will include armed drones
*(US) FOMC RAISES TARGET RANGE 25 BPS TO 0.25-0.50% (AS EXPECTED) (1st rate hike since Dec 2018); TO BEGIN CUTTING HOLDINGS OF TREASURY SECURITIES AND AGENCY DEBT AND AGENCY MORTGAGE BACKED SECURITIES AT A 'COMING MEETING'
STLD Guides Q1 $5.85-5.89 (ex-item) v $5.27e
THURS 3/17
(CN) China plans to establish red light/green light audit system for US listed Chinese companies to open up financial information - FT
TM Cuts Apr global production 17% to 750K units (prior guided average global production for Ar-June at 800K); Notes number of vehicles impacted by Japan's earthquake in uncertain
JPMorgan analysts raise forecast for Q3 2022 Brent oil price to $120/bbl (prior $100/bbl)
*(TW) TAIWAN CENTRAL BANK (CBC) RAISES BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE BY 25BPS to 1.375% (NOT EXPECTED)
(RU) Russia Finance Ministry: Eurobond coupon payment was made to correspondent bank
(RU) Moldova President Sandu: Calling for complete and unconditional withdrawal of Russian forces from Transnistria
(UR) China's ambassador to Ukraine Fan Xianrong: China would never attack Ukraine; China will help, especially economically - Ukrainian press
*(EU) EURO ZONE FEB FINAL CPI Y/Y: 5.9% (record high) V 5.8%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 2.7% V 2.7%E
(RU) Russia govt spokesperson Peskov: Reports of major progress in talks is wrong; Elements or progress are correct
(UR) Ukraine Presidential advisor: Ukraine's position is unchanged that Ukraine's borders as of 1991 must be recognized
(EU) ECB’s Lane (Ireland, chief economist): Calibration of net purchases in Q3 to be data dependent
(CN) China reportedly studies virus control measures; Vows more effective measures on COVID-19 control - China TV
*(UK) BANK OF ENGLAND (BOE) RAISES BANK RATE BY 25BPS TO 0.75%; AS EXPECTED; Says further rate rises might be needed in coming months
*(UK) BOE MAR MINUTES: VOTED 8-1 TO RAISE INTEREST RATES (Cunliffe sought for steady policy)
NUE Adjusts Q1 $7.20-7.30 v $7.46e (prior Net slightly reduced q/q)
(NL) ECB’s Knot (Netherlands): Not ruling out possible two hikes in 2022; To depend on incoming inflation data
(US) Pres Biden to hold call with China Pres Xi on Mar 18th to discuss Russia-Ukraine war and managing competition - press
*(US) FEB HOUSING STARTS: 1.67M V 1.700ME; BUILDING PERMITS: 1.86M V 1.850ME
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 214K V 220KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.42M V 1.48ME
*(US) MAR PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK: 27.4 V 14.8E (highest reading since Nov 2021)
Credit Suisse Raises China Equities to Overweight
*(US) FEB INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 0.5% V 0.5%E
(CN) China market regulator: Will focus on boosting market expectations and confidence; Will help to unblock domestic circulation
(UR) Ukraine spokesperson Podolyak: Pres Zelensky and Pres Putin could meet in the coming weeks, but only after the completion of work on ceasefire agreement - Russian press
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: raises Q1 GDP forecast to 1.3% from 1.2%
FDX Reports Q3 $4.59 v $4.69e, Rev $23.6B v $23.6Be
(CN) Shenzhen reopens 5 districts that achieved 'Zero Covid' goals, resuming factory production and subways in those districts
MRNA Said to have asked the US FDA to authorize a second booster for adults - press
FRI 3/18
(UR) Blasts said to have been heard in Lviv [largest city in Western Ukraine] - Ukraine media
(RU) Russia said to have set up a no fly over Donbass separatists region in Ukraine - Russia press
(JP) BOJ Gov Kuroda: Domestic economy picking up as a trend; reiterates stance that appropriate to continue with easing - post rate decision press conference
(UR) Ukraine Presidential advisor Zhovkva: Ukraine-Russia talks are progressing only slowly; Ukraine needs hard security guarantees in deal; Will not negotiate an inch of Ukrainian territory
(NL) ECB’s Knot (Netherlands): Concern that if Euro exchange rate weakens too much it aggravates our problems with the high energy inflation in the very short term - press
(RU) Russia govt spokesperson Peskov: Russian delegation to Ukraine peace talks has expressed readiness to work much faster than now
*(RU) RUSSIA CENTRAL BANK (CBR) LEAVES KEY ONE-WEEK KEY AUCTION RATE UNCHANGED AT 20.00%; AS EXPECTED
*(US) FED'S BULLARD (VOTER, HAWK; DISSENTER): FOMC SHOULD HAVE IMPLEMENTED BALANCE SHEET PLAN AND RAISED RATES BY 50 BPS - STATEMENT
(UR) Turkey Presidential spokesperson Kalin: Russian Pres Putin wanted Ukraine to complete a disarmament process, protect the Russian language in the country and engage in a "de-Nazi" operation - BBC interview
(US) Fed's Waller (Hawk, Voter): Data is screaming at us to go 50bps increase but geopolitical events call for caution; Favors front-loading rate hikes; Would favor 50bps hikes at 'one or multiple meetings' in the near future - CNBC
*(US) FEB EXISTING HOME SALES: 6.02M V 6.10ME
(RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) Gov Nabiullina: Raised rates last month to withstand the risks to financial stability; Russia banking system and payments infrastructure is working flawlessly

War and stagflation fears keep market sentiment downbeat

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: War and stagflation fears keep market sentiment downbeat

2022-03-11T16:05:56.583

Trading this week commenced with the Russia’s Ukraine invasion holding a firm grip on markets. Oil prices spiked, to perhaps a crescendo, around the Biden announcement that the US would ban all Russian energy from US markets. Crude broke out to levels not seen since 2014, but prices did roll over in the wake of the Administration’s unilateral announcement and news of additional coordinated SPR releases. As oil prices attempted to stabilize, investors risk appetite improved, putting a floor under global equity markets. Gold prices backed off, the dollar softened and US Treasury yields moved up amid some unwinding or recent safe haven bets. Russian attacks continued across eastern Ukraine while the rhetoric and propaganda remained intense, but sentiment seemed to marginally improve leading into Thursday’s meeting between the Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers. That meeting offered little in terms of concrete progress towards a ceasefire, but both sides did acknowledge they broached the subject of a future Putin-Zelenskiy meeting. Uncertainty remained extremely high heading into the weekend despite a somewhat softer tone from President Putin who noted there had been certain “positive shifts” in the Ukraine talks. Western officials remained under no illusions though, emphasizing Putin has shown no signs of engaging in serious diplomacy, while planning for additional sanctions against Russia.

Thursday’s trade also saw EU yields rise after the ECB indicated it will halt asset purchases in Q3 despite the ongoing uncertainty around Ukraine, while also affirming it will hike the key rate sometime after that. The ECB also raised its CPI outlook while cutting GDP forecasts in the latest staff projections. US February CPI data largely met market expectations, but some noted the composition was less than encouraging citing rent pressures, in particular. Friday’s March preliminary University of Michigan sentiment reading plumbed to more than a decade low while the 1-year inflation expectation, at 5.4%, touched the highest reading since 1981. This week’s developments seemed to only fan fears around a growing narrative that the global economy is careening towards a difficult period of stagflation. For the week, the S&P lost 2.9%, the DJIA was off 2%, and the Nasdaq fell 3.5%.

In corporate news this week, Amazon announced a 20-for-1 stock split in a move that could pave the way for the tech giant to enter the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Oracle earnings came in below expectations, though the company reported progress on its shift to the cloud software market, despite still lagging sector leaders Amazon and Microsoft. Uber gave some upbeat guidance this week, noting its mobility businesses is bouncing back from the effects of Omicron much faster than it had anticipated. DocuSign shares plunged to erase any COVID-era gains after forecasting below consensus for 2023 amid decelerating subscription revenue growth. Didi Global’s ADR sunk 15% after reports late in the week that its planned Hong Kong stock listing had been halted.

Major US companies such as McDonald’s, Starbucks, Pepsi, Coca-Cola, and American Express joined the throng of firms pausing their operations within Russia. Goldman Sachs said it would be the first Wall Street firm to do the same, and JPMorgan followed suit later in the week. Google announced it would acquire cybersecurity firm Mandiant (formerly FireEye) for $5B and would incorporate the company into its Cloud division. Rival North Dakota shale drillers Whiting Petroleum and Oasis Petroleum said they would merge in a cash-and-stock transaction creating a $6B entity.


SUN 3/6
(RU) Banks in Russia are rapidly trying to move to Chinese UnionPay card operator's system and its own Mir network, after Visa and MasterCard suspended operations - press
(US) US said to be in talks with Venezuela on possible easing of oil sanctions, the two countries are said to not be close to any deal - press
(RU) Russia President Putin issued decree to allow companies to use Rubles (RUB) to pay foreign creditors [relates to debt payments to creditors in countries that engage in hostile activities against Russia]; Russia Central Bank to also ease reporting requirements for domestic lenders, commercial banks will no longer have to publish their monthly accounts on their websites - US financial press
*(CN) CHINA JAN-FEB TRADE BALANCE: $115.9B V $95.0BE
*(US) US SAID TO BE CONSIDERING ACTING WITHOUT ALLIES ON BAN OF OIL IMPORTS FROM RUSSIA, no decision has been made as of yet - US financial press
MON 3/7
(RU) Russia Military to hold cease fire and open humanitarian corridors in several Ukraine cities [Kyiv, Mariupol, Kharkiv, Sumy] at 10:00 Moscow time - Russian press
(CN) China Foreign Min Wang Yi: Taiwan to eventually return to embrace of motherland; Russia-China cooperation is good for world peace and stability
TTF European benchmark Dutch front-month gas futures move above €310/MWh (record high) amid gas supply concerns and oil price rise
(CN) China FX regulator reportedly surveyed banks about their ties with Russia - financial press
(RU) Reportedly Russia is recruiting Syrians skilled in urban combat to fight in Ukrainian cities - US financial press
(EU) Daily 3-month Euribor Fixing: -0.498% v -0.520% prior (above ECB deposit rate and highest since Sept 2020)
BA Said to have suspended purchasing Russian titanium; Reportedly has sufficient supply for airplane production due to supplier diversity and inventory - US financial press
(RU) Russia govt spokesperson Peskov: Reiterates stance to finish demilitarization of Ukraine, and secure two breakaway regions*; Military action will stop once conditions are met
UBER Raises Q1 Adj EBITDA $130-150M (prior $100-130M); Mobility business is bouncing back from Omicron "much faster than we expected"
(RU) Russian Ministry of Digital Development refutes rumors about plans to disconnect Russia from the global internet - Russian press
WLL Confirms to be acquired by Oasis Petroleum in cash and stock transaction, combined Co valued at EV ~$6.0B
(RU) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov said to meet Ukraine Foreign Min Kuleba on Thursday, Mar 10th in Turkey - press
AXP Suspends operations in Russia and Belarus
(RU) Ernst & Young said to announce plans to leave Russia as soon as today (to follow KPMG and PwC) - UK press
(UR) Ukraine spokesperson Podolyak: Third round of talks with Russia has finished, There are small positive developments in improving the logistics of humanitarian corridors
(RU) Russia Dep PM Novak: Europe is pushing us towards an embargo on gas deliveries through Nord Stream 1 but we are not taking this decision yet; No one would benefit from that embargo
*(US) JAN CONSUMER CREDIT: $6.8B V $24.5BE
(UR) Ukraine reportedly received 5,000 AT4* anti-tank weapons, 5,000 helmets and 5,000 bullet-proof vests from Sweden - press
TUES 3/8
ORA.FR Orange and MASMOVIL confirm exclusive discussions to combine their operations in Spain; Potential deal valued at up to €19.6B
(EU) EU said to consider joint bond issuance to help fund energy and defense to cope with the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - financial press
Goldman Sachs analysts raise forecast for 2022 Brent spot price from $98/bbl to $135/bbl
(UK) London Metal Exchange said to have suspended trading in nickel after price for three-month contract rose about 100% in less than 48 hours - press
(IT) Italy Energy Transition Min: Italy aims to become independent from Russian gas imports within 24-30 months
SHEL.UK To withdraw from Russian oil and gas; Will stop all spot purchases of Russian crude oil, effective immediately; Will shut its service stations, aviation fuels and lubricants operations in Russia, effective as fast as possible
(CN) China President Xi: Sanctions over Russia to hurt global economy; Ukraine situation is "worrying"; China willing to coordinate with Europe on Ukraine
(EU) Reportedly Russian gas flows through Ukraine to Slovakia decreased sharply - press
VOW3.DE Said to temporarily halt orders for hybrid models citing chip shortage and Ukraine war
- German press
MNDT Confirms to be acquired by Google for $23.00/shr in $5.4B all-cash deal
DKS Reports Q4 $3.64 v $3.54e, Rev $3.35B v $3.30Be; Raises Quarterly dividend 11.4% to $0.4875 from $0.4375 (indicated yield 1.96%)
*(US) US PRESIDENT BIDEN SET TO BAN RUSSIAN OIL, LNG AND COAL AS SOON AS TODAY, MAR 8TH - PRESS
VOW3.DE CEO said to warn that economic damage from war risks being worse than pandemic; Europe faced threat of higher inflation from prolonged conflict in Ukraine - press
(UK) UK reportedly will move toward ban on Russian oil with phased-in approach over months to let markets adjust - UK Politico
(US) President Biden: Confirms ban on imports of Russian Oil, Gas and Energy, understands many allies may not be able to join US
(UK) BBC spokesperson: Will resume English-language reporting from within Russia beginning this evening
(UR) Ukraine President Zelenskiy said to have 'cooled down' regarding question of Ukraine joining NATO - financial press
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: raises Q1 GDP forecast to 0.5% from 0.0%
MCD To temporarily close all of its 847 stores in Russia due to Ukraine invasion
(RU) President Putin signs decree on 'special economic measures' restricting imports and exports 'to protect Russia's security'; To include 'a ban on the export of products and raw materials' the list of which to be determined by Russian govt by Dec 31st - Russia press
(PL) Poland Foreign Min: Prepared to transfer all MiG-29 warplanes to US air base at Ramstein. Germany
(UK) London Metal Exchange: Does not consider it appropriate to announce trading resumption date for nickel given continued uncertainties in the market; Doesn't see restarting nickel trading before Mar 11th
PEP Reportedly exploring options for Russian assets, including writing off business in Russia entirely - press
SBUX To pause all business activity in Russia
KO Suspends its business in Russia; To continue to monitor and assess the situation as circumstances evolve
(US) Commerce Sec Raimondo: Any Chinese companies that aid Russia could be shut down; US could essentially shut down semiconductor -manufacturing international corp or any Chinese companies that defy US sanctions - NYT
XPO To create two standalone, publicly traded companies in LTL and tech-enabled brokered transportation; To divest European operations; affirms all guidance
(RU) Russia Central Bank to limit foreign exchange cash withdrawals from individuals FX accounts until Sept 2022 - press
(RU) US President Biden tweets: This much is already clear: Ukraine will never be a victory for Putin. Putin may be able to take a city, but he will never be able to hold the country
WED 3/9
ADS.DE Reports FY21 €1.05 v €0.77 y/y, Op €66M v €105Me, Rev €5.14B v €5.24Be; Raises FY21 dividend 10% to €3.30/shr
(UR) Ukraine govt bans exports of rye, barley, buckwheat, millet, sugar, salt and meat - financial press
*IEA TO RELEASE 62.7M BARRELS (45.7M OF CRUDE OIL AND 16.9MBBL OF OIL PRODUCTS) - PRESS
TM Exec: To lower production plan for Apr-Jun quarter
(RU) Russia Foreign Ministry: Ukraine operation going strictly in line with plan; It is better for Russian goals in Ukraine to be achieved through talks
(EU) EU Presidency office (held by France): Member States have agreed to new sanctions against Russian leaders and oligarchs
(RU) Russia Gov Spokesperson Peskov: Reiterates govt interested in continuing talks with Ukraine; US has declared economic war on Russia; Country may rethink its energy commitments after sanctions
(RU) Russia PM Mishustin: Russia to approve trade ban details in near future; Russian govt will shortly define list of goods subject to import and export bans, no details yet
ZIM Reports Q4 $14.17 v $3.49 y/y, Rev $3.47B v $3.44Be; Declares FY21 dividend $17.00/shr
AMZN Reportedly House Judiciary Committee asking DOJ to commence criminal probe of Amazon over Amazon's use of seller data and illegal obstruction of Congress - US financial press
(UR) Kyiv mayor Klichko: If Russians encircle Kyiv, we have resources for a week
PM Suspends investment and activates plans to scale down manufacturing ops in Russia (~10% of total cigarette and heated tobacco unit shipment volume and ~6% of total net revenues)
*(US) JAN JOLTS JOB OPENINGS: 11.263M V 10.950ME
(US) Atlanta Fed's Wu-Xia Shadow Federal Funds Rate at +0.21 v -0.20 in Jan (first positive reading since Oct 2020)
(RU) Russia Defense Ministry: Admits participation of conscript soldiers in Ukraine operation; Exhaustive measures are being taken to prevent conscript soldiers from being sent to combat areas
(RU) Russia Feb CPI M/M: 1.2% v 1.2%e; Y/Y: 9.2% v 9.2%e
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Mar 5th: 505K total units, -1.9% y/y
(KR) Conservative candidate Yoon Suk-yeol projected to win South Korea presidential election - Korean press
(RU) Russia negotiator Slutsky: Delegation at peace talks with Ukraine will Not concede anything, not a single negotiating point
AMZN Approves a 20-for-1 split of the Company’s common stock, effective June 6th; Authorizes $10B buyback (1% of market cap) - filing
UAE Energy Minister: UAE is committed to the OPEC+ agreement and its existing monthly production adjustment mechanism
THURS 3/10
(UK) Conservative MP Heappey: NATO could intervene in Ukraine if Russia uses chemical weapons - press
*(RU) RUSSIA GOV SPOKESPERSON PESKOV: MEETING OF FOREIGN MINS IN TURKEY MAY OPEN WAY FOR TALKS BETWEEN PUTIN AND ZELENSKIY; awaiting outcome of talks between Lavrov and Kuleba
(CN) China said to have widened the trading band between the CNY currency (Yuan) and RUB currency (Ruble) from 5% to 10% - press
(UK) UK adds Russian oligarch and former Chelsea FC owner Roman Abramovich to sanction list and asset freeze list - press
(UR) Ukraine Foreign Min Kuleba: No progress on ceasefire; Russia conveyed impression to continue its attack until demands met - comments after meeting Russian Foreign Min Lavrov
(RU) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Possible Putin-Zelenskiy summit was discussed; Mainly spoke about humanitarian corridors with Ukraine; Want serious talks with Ukraine in Belarus
RUALR.RU Rio Tinto said to halt shipments to Rusal's Alumina refinery in Ireland; Looking to stop bauxite shipments to key Rusal plant - press
DBK.DE Targets FY25 Post-tax ROTE >10%, Rev +3.5-4.5% CAGR through FY25 reaching €30B by FY25
(RU) Russia Economy Ministry to ban some forestry exports to 'unfriendly' States until end-2022- Russian press
*(EU) ECB LEAVES 7-DAY MAIN REFINANCING RATE UNCHANGED AT 0.00%; AS EXPECTED
*(EU) ECB AMENDS ITS BOND BUYING PLAN; Brings forward planned conclusion of APP bond buying program (Conventional QE) to Q3 if the incoming data support the expectation that the medium-term inflation outlook will not weaken
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 227K V 217KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.494M V 1.45ME
*(US) FEB CPI M/M: 0.8% V 0.8%E; Y/Y: 7.9% V 7.9%E
(EU) ECB chief Lagarde: Had very intense discussion on economic situation; Had different views on issues - Q&A
GS Plans to close ops in Russia, the first Wall Street bank to do so - press
V Reports Feb US Spending Momentum Index at 109.33, +6.8% m/m
(EU) Reportedly only a few ECB policymakers favored keeping APP open-ended at today's meeting; Agreed that 1.9% inflation expected in 2024 is at target - press
(UK) London Metal Exchange reportedly to keep nickel market shut until at least next week - press
(RU) Russia Fin Min Siluanov: If FX reserves frozen, Russia to repay debt in Rubles
*(US) TREASURY $20B 30-YEAR BOND REOPENING DRAWS 2.375% V 2.075% PRIOR; BID TO COVER 2.46 V 2.35 PRIOR AND 2.33 OVER LAST 8 REOPENINGS
(RU) Russia Pres Putin endorses proposal to allow govt to request court order to impose external management on facilities and factories that departing companies leave behind - press
London Metal Exchange confirms nickel market will not reopen tomorrow
JPM To actively unwind Russia business; Has not been pursuing any new business in Russia - press
ORCL Reports Q3 $1.13 v $1.17e, Rev $10.5B v $10.5Be
DOCU Reports Q4 $0.48 v $0.48e, Rev $580.8M v $561Me; Guides FY23 Rev light; Authorizes $200M stock buyback (1% of market cap)
OPFI Reports Q4 $0.13 v $0.13e, Adj Rev $96.0M v $98.4Me
(CN) China regulator says confident can resolve audit issues related to US-listed Chinese cos. - financial press
(CN) China reports 1.1K coronavirus cases, highest amount in ~2-years
(CN) China Premier Li: Hitting 5.5% GDP target will not be easy; Low rate of inflation in China shows right policies are being used; China lowered the deficit rate and macro leveraging ratio in 2021
(RU) Russia said to be looking into ways to resume stock trading next week - Press
FRI 3/11
*(DE) GERMANY FEB FINAL CPI M/M: 0.9% V 0.9%E; Y/Y: 5.1% V 5.1%E
(RU) Russian Defense Min Shoigu said to have told Russian Pres Putin about 16,000 'volunteers' from the Middle East who want to fight in Ukraine; Putin ordered to help them get into the war zone - Russian press
(IR) EU's Foreign Policy Chief Borrell: A pause in Vienna nuclear talks is needed due to external factors
(CN) China President Xi reportedly considers to tap He Lifeng as China's next Vice Premier to have broad control over economic, financial and industrial policy - US financial press
*(RU) RUSSIAN PRES PUTIN: THERE ARE CERTAIN POSITIVE SHIFTS IN TALKS WITH UKRAINE WHICH TAKE PLACE ALMOST DAILY - COMMENTS FROM MEETING BELARUS PRES LUKASHENKO
BLK Said to be hit by $17B of losses on Russian exposure - FT
(UR) Ukraine President Zelenskiy: Have reached a strategic turning point in war; Time and patience is still needed to achieve victory
(CN) China said to stick to current exiting 'zero tolerance' policy to COVID - press
(UR) Ukraine presidential adviser: No new Russian advances during last 24 hours
*(CA) CANADA FEB NET CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT: +336.6K V +127.5KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 5.5% V 6.2%E
(US) MAR PRELIMINARY UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 59.7 V 61.0E (lowest since 2011)
(US) Pres Biden: Confirms US and allies will revoke Russia's Most Favored Nation trade status
(RU) EU Commission President Von der Leyen: will present 4th package of measures against Russia tomorrow, on Mar 12th
(UR) Ukraine Foreign Min Kuleba: Repeats no progress was made during yesterday's talks with Lavrov
(US) Pres Biden: Ending normal trade is a 'crushing blow' to Russia
(US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count: 663 v 650 w/w (+2% w/w)