Stocks continue to climb the ‘wall of worry’ despite flattening yield curve and some notable earnings misses

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Weekly Market Update: Stocks continue to climb the ‘wall of worry’ despite flattening yield curve and some notable earnings misses

2021-10-29T16:08:14.08

US stock markets continued probe new all-time highs this week as earnings season reached a crescendo. Equities remained in favor in spite of several notable Q3 disappoints that revealed supply-chain problems and tight labor markets have hit even some of the leading corporations quite hard. Investors were also forced to factor in an escalating central bank pivot away from emergency policy measures that will eventually open the door for rate normalization. Worries about the pandemic lingered as portions of Eastern Europe and Asia revisited lockdowns but future US vaccination rates may be heading substantially higher after the FDA approved the Pfizer/Biontech Covid-19 vaccine for use in children as young as five years old.

US housing and manufacturing data largely rebounded from prior months while inflation figures globally continued to run hot. Following meetings by the Bank of Canada and ECB, market based rate hike expectations continued to get pulled forward on the 2022 calendar. ECB President Lagarde even pushed back on that notion specifically at her press conference, but traders clearly favored her incrementally more hawkish view for the 2022 inflation horizon. Some EU sovereign yields returned to levels not seen since July 2020 while the US Treasury curve flattened noticeably amid continued upward pressure on short rates alongside solid demand for Treasury bonds. Washington remained a source of uncertainty as President Biden went off to Europe for key G20 and climate meetings without a vote on his infrastructure spending package. For the week, the S&P gained 1.3%, the DJIA added 0.4%, and the Nasdaq was up 2.7%.

In corporate news this week, a slew of major earnings made headlines. Apple shares fell as the company failed to meet profit expectations for the first time since 2016, as CEO Cook said supply chain constraints crimped revenues by $6B and that the impact would be even greater in the next quarter. Amazon posted a big miss on its top and bottom line as labor costs and supply chain hiccups weighed on the retail giant's outlook. Microsoft’s stronger than expected earnings pushed its market cap up enough to overtake Apple's amid growth in its cloud computing division. Facebook missed consensus estimates and cut its guidance as Apple restrictions on consumer data hurt its ad revenue. Alphabet’s Google on the other hand posted strong growth as small businesses continued to buy digital ads on its various platforms. Twitter missed on its top and bottom lines, though the social media company said the impact from Apple’s data curbs had been less than anticipated. Western Digital was negatively affected this quarter by supply chain troubles, leading it to guide Q2 below analyst expectations. Ford posted a beat and raised guidance, sending shares to their highest levels since late 2014. UPS also had a positive quarter, notching a higher than expected increase in profit amid strong e-commerce demand. On the M&A front, PayPal confirmed it will not be pursuing an acquisition of Pinterest at this time.

SUN 10/24
BMPS.IT UniCredit and Italy's Ministry of Economy and Finance confirm decision to cease the negotiations on potential acquisition of Monte dei Paschi
(US) Treasury Sec Yellen: Do not think we are about to lose control of inflation; Inflation will remain high until next year; Expects improvement in inflation rate in H2 2022
(TR) Turkey President Erdogan said to have ordered 10 foreign envoys be ousted, including envoys from US, France and Germany - press
(CN) China to launch pilot property tax schemes in some regions; the specific regions and other details will be determined by the State Council - Xinhua

MON 10/25
5.HK Reports Q3 Net $3.54B v $1.36B y/y, adj Pretax $6.00B v $4.4B y/y ($4.87Be), Rev $12.0B v $11.9B y/y ($12.3Be); To buy back up to $2.0B in shares
(US) US Senator Manchin (D-WV) said to be 'agreeable' to wealth tax for President Biden plan - US press
PINS PayPal confirms it is not pursuing an acquisition of Pinterest at this time
*(DE) GERMANY OCT IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE SURVEY: 97.7 V 98.0E (4th straight lower reading)
KMB Reports Q3 $1.62 v $1.66e, Rev $5.01B v $5.00Be; Cuts FY21 outlook citing significantly higher input cost inflation
MU Spokesperson: Taiwan earthquake on Oct 24th caused impact to production
*(US) OCT DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY: 14.6 V 6.2E
ML.FR Reports 9M Rev €17.20B v €14.9B y/y
MRNA Spikevax: EMA recommendation on booster; EMA’s human medicines committee (CHMP) concludes booster dose of COVID-19 vaccine Spikevax may be considered in people aged 18 years and above
UNP Takes additional action to alleviate supply chain congestion; To offer $60/container refund for containers in-gated on Saturdays and Sundays
FB Reports Q3 $3.22 v $3.20e, Rev $29.0B v $29.6Be; Increases share repurchase program by $50B; Notes significant uncertainty ahead of Q4 and continued headwinds from Apple's iOS 14 changes
(HK) Hong Kong Chief Exec Lam: To remove most coronavirus quarantine exemptions

TUES 10/26
UBSG.CH Reports Q3 Net $2.28B v $2.1B y/y; Rev $9.13B v $8.94B y/y, To give strategic update Feb 1, 2022
NOVN.CH Reports Q3 Core EPS $1.71 v $1.65e, Rev $13.0B v $13.0Be; Commences review of options for Sandoz unit
Carmakers and other users of aluminium could be forced to halt production within weeks amid a “catastrophic” shortage of magnesium across Europe - financial press
LEN To partner with Icon to build community of 100 3D-printed homes - US financial press
UPS Reports Q3 $2.71 v $2.52e, Rev $23.2B v $22.6Be; Raises FY21 outlook
GE Reports Q3 $0.57 v $0.41e, Rev $18.4B v $19.1Be; Cuts FY21 Rev outlook, but raises FY21 profit outlook
MMM Reports Q3 $2.45 v $2.18e, Rev $8.94B v $8.67Be
HAS Reports Q3 $1.96 v $1.73e, Rev $1.97B v $1.96Be; Says it has orders to support the high end of the Rev growth range
RTX Reports Q3 $1.26 v $1.07e, Rev $17.0B v $16.5Be
SHW Reports Q3 $2.09 v $2.07e, Rev $5.15B v $5.11Be; Do not expect any moderation in raw material inflation any sooner than next year
WM Reports Q3 $1.26 v $1.33e, Rev $4.67B v $4.55Be; Cites additional labor costs and other inflationary cost pressures
GLW Reports Q3 $0.56 v $0.58e, Rev $3.60B v $3.66Be
LMT Guides initial FY22 Rev ~$66B** v $70.2Be, segment Op margin ~11% - earnings slides
*(US) OCT RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: 12 V 5E
*(US) OCT CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 113.8 V 108.3E
*(US) SEPT NEW HOME SALES: 800K V 759KE
0728.HK FCC votes to revoke China Telecom America's authority to provide telecom services within the US - press
MSFT Reports Q1 $2.27 adj v $2.06e, Rev $45.3B v $43.9Be
GOOGL Reports Q3 $27.99 v $23.13e, Rev $53.6B (ex TAC) v $51.8Be
V Reports Q4 $1.62 v $1.53e, Rev $6.6B v $6.48Be; Raises Quarterly dividend 17.2% to $0.375 from $0.32 (indicated yield 0.65%)
AMD Reports Q3 $0.73 v $0.67e, Rev $4.31B v $4.12Be; 3rd Gen EPYC processor shipments ramped significantly in Q3
(US) Puerto Rico Senate and House have approved the debt restructuring bond bill; the final vote in the Senate was 14 to 13 - press
PFE VRBPAC Panel Votes In Favor (17 Yes; 0 No; 1 Abstain) that based on the totality of scientific evidence available, the benefits of PFE-BNTX COVID-19 Vaccine when administered as a 2-dose series (10 µg each dose, 3 weeks apart) outweigh risks for use in children 5-11 years of age - VRBPAC Meeting

WEDS 10/27
DBK.DE Reports Q3 Net €194M v €812M y/y, Rev €6.04B v €5.8Be; Rev performance developing in line with or better than previous 2022 ambitions
BAS.DE Reports Q3 Net €1.25B v €1.30Be, Adj EBITDA €2.77B v €2.69Be, Rev €19.7B v €17.8Be; Raises FY21 outlook
(DK) GERMANY NOV GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: +0.9 V -0.5E (2nd straight month of positive readings)
HEIA.NL Issues Q3 Trading Update: Organic Beer volume -5.1% y/y
MCD Reports Q3 $2.76 v $2.46e, Rev $6.20B v $6.02Be
IP Reports Q3 $1.35 v $1.46e, Rev $5.71B v $5.84Be; Expect this inflationary environment to continue for the foreseeable future
GSK.UK Reports Q3 Adj EPS 36.6p v 29.1pe, Rev £9.08B v £8.8Be
GM Reports Q3 $1.52 v $0.89e, Rev $26.8B v $26.5Be; Raises guidance
(FR) France govt spokesperson Attal: Sanctions against UK will come into effect on Mon, Nov 1st; Announcement could come tomorrow
*(US) SEPT PRELIMINARY WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M: 1.1% V 1.0%E
*(UK) DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE (DMO) UPDATES ITS FINANCING REMIT: Gross issuance for FY21/22 at £194.8B
(US) Nevada reports Sept casino gaming Rev $1.16B, +41.1% y/y; Las Vegas strip Rev $640.6M, +80.6% y/y
*(CA) BANK OF CANADA (BOC) LEAVES INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED AT 0.25%; AS EXPECTED; Ending QE and moving into reinvestment phase
*(US) DOE CRUDE: +4.3M V +0.5ME; GASOLINE: -2.0M V -2ME; DISTILLATE: -0.4M V -2ME
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: cuts Q3 GDP forecast to 0.2% from 0.5%
COST Reportedly raised its minimum wage to $17/hr (had raised it to $16/hr in Feb) - CNN
F Reports Q3 $0.51 v $0.29e, Rev $35.7B v $34.2Be; Raises FY21 outlook; Says Ford has momentum from and expects to build on its strong performance in 2021
005930.KR Reports final Q3 (KRW) Net 12.3T v 9.36T y/y; Op 15.8T v 12.4T y/y, Rev 74.0T v 67.0T y/y

THURS 10/28
AIR.FR Reports Q3 adj Net €404M v -€767M y/y, Adj EBIT €666M v €820M y/y, Rev €10.5B v €11.2B y/y
NOKIA.FI Reports Q3 €0.08 v €0.05 y/y, Op €633M v €486M y/y, Rev €5.40B v €5.29B y/y; Works to mitigate the unprecedented component cost inflation the industry faces
ABI.BE Reports Q3 $0.85 v $0.64e, EBITDA $5.21B v $4.9Be; Rev $14.27B v $13.6Be
VOW3.DE Reports Q3 Net €2.90B v €2.75B y/y, Op €2.80B v €3.18B y/y, Rev €56.9B v €59.4B y/y; Says operating business in Q3 noticeably down due to semiconductor bottlenecks; Cuts FY21 deliveries outlook
SAN.FR Reports Q3 Business EPS €1.85 v €1.55 y/y, Op €3.04B v €2.52B y/y, Rev €10.4B v €9.48B y/y
066570.KR Reports final Q3 (KRW) Net 384.9B v 626.1B y/y; Op 540.7B v 959B y/y, Rev 18.8BT v 16.9T y/y
RDSA.NL Reports Q3 $0.53 v $0.12 y/y, Rev $61.6B (total Rev and other income) v $44.7B y/y
STLA Reports Q3 Rev €32.6B v €37.7B y/y; CFO says chip supplies improving in Oct and Sept
6758.JP Reports H1 Net ¥424.9B v ¥652.2B y/y, Pretax ¥566.3B v ¥572.3B y/y, Op ¥598.5B v ¥537.0B y/y, Rev ¥4.6T v ¥4.1T y/y
(FR) France EU Affairs Min Beaune: UK could face higher electricity prices
VOW3.DE CEO: Cuts FY21 Rev growth +10% (prior: +15%); Chip supplies should be much better in Q4 and to improve further in coming quarters despite some constraints persisting in 2022 - post earnings comments
(DE) German day-ahead baseload power price at €122.0/MWh -21.4% d/d
*(DE) GERMANY OCT NET UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -39.0K V -20.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS RATE: 5.4% V 5.4%E
RDS.A CFO: energy supply shortage to be mostly resolved over 2022 - post earnings comments
CAT Reports Q3 $2.66 v $2.26e, Rev $12.4B v $12.6Be; Says it is working to mitigate supply chain issues
MRK Reports Q3 $1.75 v $1.54e, Rev $13.2B v $12.4Be
AVNT Reports Q3 $0.70 adj v $0.68e, Rev $1.22B v $1.17Be; Notes unprecedented combination of inflation, supply chain disruptions, and labor shortages
HSY Reports Q3 $2.10 v $2.00e, Rev $2.36B v $2.31Be; Raises FY21 outlook to reflect elevated consumer demand across markets, an improved tax outlook and optimized brand investment
LH Reports Q3 $6.82 v $4.77e, Rev $4.06B v $3.58Be
MO Reports Q3 $1.22 v $1.26e, Rev $6.79B v $5.77Be; Expands share buyback program to $3.5B from $2B
RFL AVENGER 500 Phase 3 clinical trial for CPI-613 (devimistat) in Metastatic Pancreatic did NOT meet primary endpoint; Independent Data Monitoring Committee recommends Phase 3 clinical trial in relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukemia be stopped due to lack of efficacy
*(EU) ECB LEAVES 7-DAY MAIN REFINANCING RATE UNCHANGED AT 0.00%; AS EXPECTED; Reiterates forward guidance on rates and QE program pace
CAT CFO: Sees supply-chain impacts lasting into 2022; Sees China demand falling in Q4, full year demand flat - media call
*(DE) GERMANY OCT PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.5% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 4.5% V 4.4%E (highest annual pace since 1993 reunification)
MA Reports Q3 $2.37 v $2.18e, Rev $5.0B v $4.96Be
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 281K V 288KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 2.243M V 2.42ME
*(US) Q3 ADVANCE GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: 2.0% V 2.6%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 1.6% V 0.9%E
*(US) Q3 ADVANCE GDP PRICE INDEX: 5.7% V 5.3%E; CORE PCE Q/Q: 4.5% V 4.5%E
(EU) ECB chief Lagarde: Recovery continues but has "Moderated"; Inflation expected to rise further but ease during course of 2022 - prepared remarks
(EU) ECB chief Lagarde: Analysis does not support market-based lift-off expectations
(EU) ECB chief Lagarde: In her view the PEPP will end next March (as scheduled) - Q&A
*(US) SEPT PENDING HOME SALES M/M: -2.3% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: -7.2% V -3.1%E
(EU) ECB Policymakers said to be split about second round effect of inflation, some doubt CPI will ease below 2% in 2023 - press
HPE Guides initial FY22 $1.96-2.10 v $2.00e, Rev growth 3-4% (cc) y/y; Targets FY22-24 annual Rev CAGR 2-4% (prior 3-yr view 1-3%)
FB Rebranding company name to 'Meta' to reflect our full breadth of products and focus on Metaverse - Facebook Connect
AMZN Reports Q3 $6.12 v $8.71e, Rev $110.8B v $111.8Be
X Reports Q3 $5.36 v $4.85e, Rev $5.96B v $5.73Be; Raises dividend to $0.05 from $0.01; Announces $300M share repurchase program
AAPL Reports Q4 $1.24 v $1.24e, Rev $83.4B v $85.5Be; Supply chain constraints hurt sales by $6B in Q4; Expects continued supply constraints in Q1 resulting in larger headwinds
AAPL CEO Cook: Supply constraints now affecting ALL of Apple's product lines, but have seen improvement in disruptions in Southeast Asia as of late Oct - post earnings comments
KO Reportedly near deal to buy controlling stake in sports drink maker BodyArmor, valuing company at $8B - press

FRI 10/29
DAI.DE CFO: volume should come back in Q4; Market demand is so high, could expect higher passenger car sales in 2022 - post earnings comments
*(FR) FRANCE OCT PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.4% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 2.6% V 2.5%E
(DE) German day-ahead baseload power price at €82.0/MWh -32.2% d/d
*(DE) GERMANY Q3 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 1.8% V 2.2%E; Y/Y: 2.5% V 2.6%E
3328.HK Reports Q3 (CNY) Net 22.3B v 16.2B y/y, NII 40.8B v 40.2B y/y
*(EU) EURO ZONE OCT ADVANCE CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: 4.1% V 3.7%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 2.1% V 1.9%E (4th month above target and highest annual pace since 2008)
*(EU) EURO ZONE Q3 ADVANCE GDP Q/Q: 2.2% V 2.1%E; Y/Y: 3.7% V 3.5%E
CVX Reports Q3 $2.96 v $2.21e, Rev $44.7B v $42.5Be; Notes Q3 FCF was best ever reported
X Guides Q4 flat rolled segment EBITDA to be near the Q3 record level - earnings call
*(US) SEPT PERSONAL INCOME: -1.0% V -0.3%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: 0.6% V 0.6%E
XOM Reports Q3 $1.58 v $1.57e, Rev $73.8B v $73.3Be; Expects up to $10B share buyback over 12-24 months, starting in 2022
CCJ Reports Q3 -C$0.14 v -C$0.20 y/y, Rev C$361M v C$379M y/y
FDA approves PFE-BNTX Covid-19 Vaccine, BNT162b2 (Comirnaty), for use in children 5 through 11 years of age

Markets remain calm as central banks take steps to unwind stimulus with a backdrop of rising inflation

TradeTheNews.com 

 Weekly Market Update: Markets remain calm as central banks take steps to unwind stimulus with a backdrop of rising inflation

2021-10-22T16:14:52.097

US stock markets rode winning streaks this week to new all-time highs for both the Dow and S&P. Boosted in part by strong Q3 earnings reports, while shaking off concerns about inflation and supply-chain problems that have threatened the post-pandemic economic recovery. Volatility edged lower as investors looked to add risk while continuing to migrate away from US Treasuries. The CBOE Volatility Index closed at 15.01 Thursday, its lowest close since February 2020. Bitcoin surged above $66K for the first time ever before backing off late in the week, marking the launch of the first Bitcoin futures ETF. Crude prices continued to march higher hitting fresh 7-year highs fanning inflation worries.

Inflation remained the key theme in both earnings conference call discussions and for Central bankers globally. Implied market inflation expectations rose noticeably. The US 10-year TIPS break-even rate moved above 2.6%, its highest level since 2011, and well above the Federal Reserve’s long-run inflation target. The five-year break-even tested 3.0% for the first time ever, prompting one Fed official to opine they preferred survey based inflation expectation indicators over market based ones. Meanwhile, central bankers continue to take steps toward unwinding their massive stimulus programs. The Russian Central Bank raised rates 75bps and debated going by 100bps, which was more than expected to fight what they referred to as potentially “dangerous” inflation situation. Market watchers are looking for the UK central bank to raise rates next month as the BOE’s chief economist said that November is a “live” meeting and forecasted inflation to rise to 5% or even slightly higher. Stocks dipped midway through Friday’s session after Fed Chairmen Powell all but confirmed tapering would start next month while acknowledging they will react if they see serious risks of higher inflation expectations. The US curve continued to flatten as traders brought forward rate liftoff expectations for next year. For the week, the S&P gained 1.6%, the DJIA added 1.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.3%.

In corporate news this week, earnings season shifted into high gear and results have been largely positive, with JPMorgan noting almost 9 out of 10 companies have beaten expectations so far. Netflix profits came in higher than anticipated, adding more users than predicted amid the global appetite for drama series ‘Squid Game.’ Tesla successfully navigated rough supply chain waters to notch another record quarterly profit amid an uptick in EV sales in China. American Express stock was boosted after the credit card company reported stronger than expected profit as more of its customers dine out.

Notable earnings misses included IBM, which saw shares fall after its 3Q revenues missed consensus as the tech giant struggled with its cloud business and a slowdown in client spending. Intel also moved lower on weaker than expected revenue, blaming supply shortages for its PC division struggles. Snap shares had their biggest ever one-day decline, falling back almost 25% after the social media platform posted disappointing results and guidance, warning that it expects growth to slow because changes to the Apple iOS have crimped its ad business. Twitter and Facebook fell in sympathy ahead of their earnings next week.


SUN 10/17
Z Reportedly paused purchasing US houses as it is now working through a backlog of properties already acquired in its pipeline - press
(UK) BOE Gov Bailey: have already signaled that we will have to act to fight inflation; Action to come in our monetary policy meetings
3333.HK Will officially be in default on Oct 23rd, the end of grace period on first non-payment
(CN) China PBOC Gov Yi Gang: China is able to contain risk from Evergrande; Domestic economy is doing well, but faces challenges such as default risks for certain firms due to mismanagement
(CN) China has tested its first hyper-sonic missile with nuclear capabilities in August - FT

MON 10/18
STLA.IT Forms JV with LG Energy to build 40GW factory in NA, planning to invest €30B through 2025 in electrification and software development
(CN) China Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian: recent test was not a missile but a spacecraft test
(UK) UK reported +45,140 new coronavirus cases (biggest daily increase in 3 months)
GAZP.RU Natural gas exports to non-CIS countries at 152.2B CM between Jan and mid-Oct
*(US) OCT NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX: 80 V 75E (highest since July)
STLD Reports Q3 $4.96 v $0.51 y/y, Rev $5.09B v $2.33B y/y
(HK) Macau Q3 Casino Rev (MOP) 5.96B, +155% y/y; Mass Market gaming Rev 12.8B, +403% y/y
BHP.AU Reports Q1 Waio Iron Ore Production: 70.6Mt v 74.0Mt y/y; Shipments 70.8Mt v 71.0Mte
(US) FDA reportedly will allow 'mix and match' vaccine booster regimens - NY Times

TUES 10/19
(CN) Zhuhai, China lifts quarantine requirement for people traveling from Macau, effective today - press
(FR) France said to set a two-week deadline for Britain and Jersey to give French fisherman more licences or risk retaliatory measures - financial press
(DE) German day-ahead baseload power price at €61.0/MWH v €152.5/MWh d/d
(RU) Russia govt said to have signaled no extra gas for Europe without Nord Stream 2 approval
JNJ Reports Q3 $2.60 v $2.37e, Rev $23.3B v $23.6Be
HAL Reports Q3 $0.28 v $0.28e, Rev $3.86B v $3.93Be; Says it sees a multi-year upcycle unfolding with increased demand for its services
TRV Reports Q3 $2.60 v $2.04e, Rev $8.81B v $8.52Be
PM Reports Q3 $1.58 v $1.54e, Rev $8.12B v $7.85Be; Sees device constraints could persist into H1 2022, with temporarily lower IQOS user growth rates
AVIR Phase 2 MOONSONG trial evaluating AT-527 in the outpatient setting did not meet the primary endpoint in in reducing virus in mild to moderate COVID-19 in overall study population; Now anticipate Phase 3 MORNINGSKY data in 2H22
PG Reports Q1 $1.61 v $1.59e, Rev $20.3B v $19.8Be
MAN Reports Q3 $1.93 adj v $1.90e, Rev $5.14B v $5.30Be
KSU Suspending previously provided guidance due to lack of visibility on impact of auto plant shutdowns, Lazaro Cardenas service interruptions, and refined fuel product supply chain disruptions - earnings slides
(US) SEC Chair Gensler: Bitcoin futures have been regulated by CFTC for 4 -years now and major reason we felt comfortable allowing an ETF to begin trading - CNBC
(CN) Reportedly China to scale down test of property tax plan after Pres Xi saw largely negative feedback and resistance from within the Party - press
(NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction Dairy Trade price index: +2.2% v +0.0% prior
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: cuts Q3 GDP forecast to 0.5% from 1.2%
EAT Reports prelim Q1 $0.34 v $0.69e, Rev $859.6M v $877Me amid COVID surge
*(CN) CHINA SEPT NEW HOMES PRICES M/M: -0.1% V +0.2% PRIOR; Y/Y: 3.8% V 4.2% PRIOR (first decline since 2015)
FB Reportedly to change its name this week to better reflect its focus on building the metaverse - The Verge
NVAX According to internal sources methods used to test the purity of COVID vaccine have fallen short of regulators’ standards and has not been able to prove that it can produce a shot that is consistently correct - Politico
(PR) Puerto Rico House of representatives approves bill to restructure debt, Senate to vote on measure Thursday

WEDS 10/20
2354.TW Chairman Yong Liu: To set up EV plants in Europe, India and South America by 2024
(UK) Road Haulage Association: UK supply chain crisis to last until at least 2023; Truck driver shortages looking to continue for another year - FT
ASML.NL Reports Q3 Net €1.74B v €1.6B y/y, Rev €5.24B v €5.27Be; Raises Quarterly dividend 12.3% to €1.80 from €1.603 (indicated yield 0.9%); Sees chip shortage continuing into 2022
ROG.CH Reports Q3 (CHF) Rev 16.0B v 15.5Be; Raises FY21 outlook
NESN.CH Reports 9M (CHF) Rev 63.3B v 62.9Be; Raises FY21 Organic Rev outlook
*(UK) SEPT CPI M/M: 0.3% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 3.1% V 3.2%E (2nd month above target)
(DE) German day-ahead baseload power price at €45.0/MWh v €61.0/MWh d/d v €152.5/MWh prior
NESN.CH CEO: sees inflation situation to worsen - post earnings comments
(CN) Chinese property developer Sinic Holdings Group Co's said to have officially defaulted after interest payment missed on Oct 18th - press
*(DE) ECB’S WEIDMANN (HAWK, GERMANY) SUBMITTED RESIGNATION FROM BUNDESBANK CITING PERSONAL REASONS; EFFECTIVE AT END-2021
*(EU) EURO ZONE SEPT FINAL CPI Y/Y: 3.4% V 3.4%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 1.9% V 1.9%E
MU Announces over $150B in global manufacturing and R&D investments over next 10 years to meet demand; Sees chip shortage could remain until 2023
BIIB Reports Q3 $4.77 v $4.15e, Rev $2.78B v $2.68Be; Raises FY21 outlook assuming minimal ADUHELM Rev in 2021, ramping thereafter
ABT Reports Q3 $1.40 adj v $0.92e, Rev $10.9B v $9.48Be; Raises FY21 guidance
MGA Cuts FY21 Rev $35.4-36.4B (prior $38.0-39.5B) citing declines in anticipated 2021 light vehicle production; Notes a provision on engineering service contracts with Evergrande
RNO.FR Said to produce at least 300K fewer vehicles in 2021 (prior anticipated ~220K fewer) due to chip shortage - press
BPOP Reports Q3 $3.09 v $2.00 y/y, Rev $658.7M v $589.8M y/y
(US) CDC Director Walensky: There is no sign that AY4.2 COVID variant affects the efficacy of vaccine shots; New AY4.2 variant has been found in the US but not in any clusters
KNX Reports Q3 $1.30 v $1.07e, Rev $1.64B v $1.55Be; Raises guidance
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -0.4M V +1ME; GASOLINE: -5.4M V -1ME; DISTILLATE: -3.9M V -1ME
(US) TREASURY $24B 20-YEAR BOND REOPENING DRAWS 2.100%, BID-TO-COVER 2.25 v 2.36 PRIOR
TSLA Reports Q3 $1.86 v $1.35e, Rev $13.8B v $13.2Be; Continues to ramp up Gigafactory Shanghai; Still expect final permit approval for Gigafactory Berlin by end-2021
MRNA Moderna and JNJ Covid vaccine booster shots receive FDA approval; EUA's amended to permit “mix and match”
HPQ Guides initial FY22 $4.07-4.27 v $3.74e, FCF 'at least' $4.5B - investor day
MRNA Confirms FDA authorization of a booster dose of COVID-19 vaccine (mRNA-1273 "Spikevax") in the U.S.

THURS 10/21
SAP.DE Reports final Q3 €1.74 v €1.32 y/y, adj EBIT €1.25B v €1.47B y/y, Rev €6.85B v €6.54B y/y
UNA.NL Reports Q3 Rev €13.5B v €12.9B y/y; Sees cost inflation to continue into 2022
UNA.NL CFO: we think inflation to continue in the rest of 2021 and into 2022; Expect next year '22 inflation to be higher y/y - post earnings comments
(DE) German day-ahead baseload power price at €69.0/MWh v €45.0/MWh d/d
(RU) Moscow confirms lockdown measures from Oct 28th to Nov 7th due to COVID-19 situation - press
(TW) Reportedly automotive IDMs plan 10-20% price increases for their chips starting 2022 - DigiTimes
DOW Reports Q3 $2.75 v $2.59e, Rev $14.8B v $14.4Be; Sees robust end-market demand that is expected to extend into 2022
DWAC Confirms Trump Media to go public through SPAC transaction with Digital World Acquisition Corp valued at EV of $875M
T Reports Q3 adj $0.87 v $0.78e, Rev $39.9B v $40.5Be
DOW Guides Q4 Rev ~$14.0-14.5B v $13.6Be - earnings slides
LUV Reports Q3 -$0.23 v -$0.27e, Rev $4.68B v $4.55Be; In OCT bookings for holiday travel trending in-line with 2019 levels
VLO Reports Q3 $1.22 v $0.87e, Rev $29.5B v $26.0Be
PFE Phase 3 trial data shows high efficacy of a booster dose of their COVID-19 vaccine; 95.6% against disease during a period when Delta was the prevalent strain
SON Reports Q3 $0.91 v $0.90e, Rev $1.42B v $1.39Be; Projects certain raw materials, energy, freight, packaging and other costs pressures will continue well into 2022
*(TR) TURKEY CENTRAL BANK (CBRT) CUTS ONE-WEEK REPO RATE BY 200BPS TO 16.00%; MORE-THAN-EXPECTED
NUE Reports Q3 $7.28 v $7.46e, Rev $10.3B v $10.1Be; Current demand trends expected to continue "well into" 2022
AMZN (US) Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) said to probe Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Google and other firms over their consumer data practices - press
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 290K V 297KE (new post-pandemic low); CONTINUING CLAIMS: 2.48M V 2.55ME
WMT CEO: Wage rates are going to keep rising - investor conf comments
AMZN Launches new local selling capabilities to help small businesses grow by reaching more customers in their area
INTC CEO: Semiconductor shortage will continue until 2023
GOOGL Reportedly plans to cut commissions from subscriptions on Play Store to 15% from 30%, beginning Jan 1st - press
(US) Fed to limit active trading and have timelier reporting of trades for Fed officials
INTC Reports Q3 $1.71 v $1.11e, Rev $18.1B v $18.2Be
MRNA (US) CDC Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) votes (15 yes; 0 No), in favor of Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine (mRNA-1273 "Spikevax") for use under EUA as a booster dose
*(AU) RBA OFFERS TO BUY A$1.0B IN GOVT SECURITIES IN UNSCHEDULED OPERATIONS (1st purchase since Feb to defend Yield Curve)
3333.HK *SAID TO HAVE PAID $83.5M IN INTEREST DUE ON SEPT 23RD; GRACE PERIOD WOULD HAVE ENDED ON OCT 23RD - China Securities Times

FRI 10/22
AAPL Reportedly Apple's EV battery talks with CATL and BYD mostly stalled; Now considering to partner with Panasonic - press
*(FR) FRANCE OCT PRELIMINARY PMI MANUFACTURING: 53.5 V 54.0E (11th month of expansion and lowest reading since Jan 2021)
*(DE) GERMANY OCT PRELIMINARY PMI MANUFACTURING: 58.2 V 56.6E (16th month of expansion and lowest reading Jan 2021)
*(EU) EURO ZONE OCT PRELIMINARY PMI MANUFACTURING: 58.5 V 57.1E (16th month of expansion but lowest reading Feb 2021)
*(UK) OCT PRELIMINARY PMI MANUFACTURING: 57.7 V 56.0E (17th straight expansion)
3333.HK Main unit Hengda Exec: no significant progress in Evergrande asset sales, cannot guarantee it will be able to continue to meet financial obligations under contracts
HON Reports Q3 $2.02 adj v $2.01e, Rev $8.47B v $8.72Be; Cuts FY21 Rev outlook for 1st time citing persistent effects of the macro-challenged environment
SON Sonoco-Alcore to increase Tube & Core Prices in the EMEA Region by €50/£50 per ton due to continued inflationary pressure
SLB Reports Q3 $0.36 adj v $0.36e, Rev $5.85B v $5.94Be; Sees Q4 as another quarter of growth; Expect to close 2021 with strong momentum
VFC Reports Q2 $1.11 adj v $1.17e, Rev $3.20B v $3.50Be; Raises Quarterly dividend 2% to $0.50/shr
HCA Reports Q3 $4.57 (adj) v $4.10e, Rev $15.3B v $14.6Be; Raises guidance
(RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) Gov Nabiullina: We may consider raising rate again by 100bps; Inflation situation potentially dangerous; No signs of easing inflationary pressures in Oct - post rate decision press conference
STX Reports Q1 $2.35 v $2.21e, Rev $3.12B v $3.10Be; Raises Quarterly dividend 4.5% to $0.70 from $0.67 (indicated yield 3.4%)
*(US) OCT PRELIMINARY MARKIT PMI MANUFACTURING: 59.2 V 60.5E (16th consecutive month of expansion)
(US) Fed Chair Powell: Fed on track to begin taper and complete it by mid-2022; Will raise rates if we see serious risks of higher inflation expectations - SARB virtual event
(US) SEPT MONTHLY BUDGET STATEMENT: -$62B V -$60BE

Debt ceiling truce gives markets some relief, though energy crunch and supply chain problems still loom

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Debt ceiling truce gives markets some relief, though energy crunch and supply chain problems still loom

2021-10-08T16:16:51.193

Stock volatility remained elevated coming into this week as a surge in global energy prices compounded inflationary concerns that could stall the economy's post-pandemic recovery. The Atlanta Fed cut is Q3 GDP forecast to a paltry 1.3%. With oil prices trading at the highest levels in seven years, thanks in part to price spikes in coal and natural gas, benchmark government bond yields moved higher in response to the anticipated inflationary effects of the growing energy crunch. In the UK, where the nation's power grid relies heavily on natural gas imports, prices surged by 37% on Wednesday alone to a fresh record high of more than $40 per British Thermal Units, a level that is around eight times higher than spot prices in the United States. Inflation and supply chain concerns were further aggravated by Beijing stepping up rhetorical threats toward Taiwan alone with its now daily military incursions into Taiwanese airspace.

Worries over whether the US Treasury would be able to raise money to pay its bills also weighed heavily on investors this week. By Thursday though, Democrats and Republicans reached a truce that would extend the debt ceiling into December. That news along with a roll over in natural gas prices, and other key input costs measures like freight benchmarks convinced investors to get more aggressive ahead of the September employment report. Friday’s payroll number was the second disappointing reading in a row, though still robust enough to keep expectations on track for the Fed to launch its QE tapering plan in November. With relief rallies in the latter part of the week, the S&P gained 0.8%, the DJIA rose 1.2%, and the Nasdaq edged up 0.1%.

In corporate news this week, ongoing global distribution hitches continued to weigh on outlooks. Home construction firm Hovnanian cuts its full year outlook amid supply chain delays. Marvell’s CEO forecast that the semiconductor shortage could extend through 2022. Defense manufacturer Oshkosh cut its outlook following significant materials and logistics disruptions. For the airline sector, Delta’s CEO affirmed its Q3 earnings guidance and noted that bookings bottomed out in September and have been improving. Kellogg workers announced they would go on strike at all US cereal facilities, though later in the week the company countered it was readying to restart plant operations with salaried employees and third-party workers. Sweden paused its Moderna COVID-19 vaccine rollout for people under 30, citing rare side effects from the injection. Shares in pharma company ChemoCentryx ripped almost 90% higher after the FDA approved the first drug in a decade to treat the autoimmune disease vasculitis. Twitter agreed to sell its MoPub monetization solution for app publishers to AppLovin for $1.1B in cash.

SUN 10/3
TSLA Reports Q3 deliveries 241.3K v 221Ke v 201.3K q/q
DAL CEO Bastian: Affirms Q3 earnings to be within guidance; bookings bottomed out in Sept and have been improving
(HK) Hong Kong Govt adviser David Hui: Reopening border with China will take 4-5 months of talks - SCMP
(UK) Brexit Min Frost said to be planning to issue a threat that the UK was prepared to trigger Article 16 unless the EU agreed to replace the Northern Ireland Protocol; Talk of early NOV deadline - UK press
(TW) China sent 77 warplanes into Taiwan defense zone over the past 2 days - Taiwan press citing Govt
(HK) Macau halts border resumption plan with China Zhuhai city (Guangdong Province)
6666.HK Hopson Development to acquire 51% stake in Evergrande's Property management unit Evergrande Real Estate for HK$40B (~$5.0B) - Chinese press

MON 10/4
BNTX CEO: a new COVID-19 vaccine version is likely to be needed by mid-2022 to protect against potential virus mutations - FT interview
(TR) Turkey Sept CPI M/M: 1.3% v 1.3%e; Y/Y: 19.6% v 19.7%e
(ES) ECB's De Guindos (Spain): Forward looking indicators shows that expansion has lost some momentum due to supply constraints, higher energy costs and bottlenecks
(UK) Brexit Min Frost: Northern Ireland protocol is not working and needs to change; cannot wait forever; Triggering Article 16 may be only way to protect UK (in line with speculation)
MRVL CEO: Chip shortage could extend through 2022 - press interview
DVAX Collaborates with US DoD to develop an adjuvanted plague vaccine using CpG 1018 adjuvant; Anticipates Phase 2 trial will commence in 2022
KRT Raises Q3 sales $102-103M (prior $100-102M) v $101Me, initial FY21 sales $365-368M v $368Me; Cites strong SEP demand
Reportedly OPEC+ ministers agree to maintain existing policy of increasing production by 400K bpd in Nov, in line with the JMMC recommendation – press
(CN) China Foreign Min: China will take all necessary measures to resolutely crush any Taiwan independence plots
1777.HK Misses $206M principal payment on 2021 notes due Oct 4th; shares halted until further notice
(US) Fed's Bullard (non-voter, hawk): Inflation is higher than the US has seen for a decade; Concerned about inflation risks are to the upside
(TW) China again sent 56 warplanes into Taiwan air defense zone Monday, Taiwan called on China to stop "irresponsible provocative actions"

TUES 10/5
(JP) Japan Fin Min Suzuki: PM has instructed me to be flexible on policy; will seek a new type of capitalism and peruse fiscal health and growth at the same time
(FR) FRANCE SEPT FINAL PMI SERVICES: 56.2 V 56.0E (confirms 5th straight expansion but lowest reading since Apr 2021)
(DE) GERMANY SEPT FINAL PMI SERVICES: 56.2 V 56.0E (confirms 5th month of expansion but lowest reading since May 2021)
(UK) SEPT FINAL PMI SERVICES: 55.4 V 54.6E (confirms 7th month of expansion)
(US) SEPT ISM SERVICES INDEX: 61.9 V 59.9E
(NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction Dairy Trade price index: +0.0% v +1.0% prior
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Cuts Q3 GDP forecast to 1.3% from 2.3%
K Workers go on strike at All US cereal facilities - press
(US) SEC Chair Gensler: US will not follow China in banning crypto tokens; Does not answer whether the SEC is examining Federal Reserve members' stock trading - press
HOV Cuts FY21 outlook amid supply chain delays; Cuts Q4 Rev $780-830M v $683M y/y, adj EBITDA $85-100M v $84.5M y/y (prior: Rev $830-880M, adj EBITDA $100-115M)
(UK) PM Johnson reportedly plans to announce a 'significant' boost to minimum wage within next few weeks - UK's Times
*(NZ) NEW ZEALAND CENTRAL BANK (RBNZ) RAISES OFFICIAL CASH RATE (OCR) 25BPS TO 0.50%; AS EXPECTED
(TW) Taiwan Ministry of National Defense (MND): China is unsure if an attack on Taiwan would succeed, could be ready for full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025 – Taiwanese

WED 10/6
(FR) France govt to present retaliatory measure on UK fishing soon
DOW Outlines investment plan: Targets underlying EBITDA >$3.0B, ROIC >13%, adj debt/EBITDA 2.0-2.5x over investment cycle - PR ahead of investor day
RPM Reports Q1 $1.04 v $1.00e, Rev $1.65B v $1.66Be; Cuts Q2 adj EBIT outlook; Expects raw material, freight and wage inflation to persist in Q2
MRNA Reportedly Sweden pauses Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine rollout for people born in 1991 and later citing rare side effects - press
(RU) Russia Pres Putin: Country is a reliable gas supplier to Europe and Asia; Russia is increasing its gas supplies to Europe; Have increased transit via Ukraine
(US) SEPT ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +568K V +430KE; Current bottlenecks in hiring should fade as the health conditions tied to the COVID-19 variant continue to improve
(PL) POLAND CENTRAL BANK (NBP) RAISES BASE RATE BY 40BPS TO 0.50%; NOT EXPECTED (1st hike since May 2012)
SAFM Increased pay rates for hourly employees to $16.70/hr; Effective Sept 26th
(US) DOE CRUDE: +2.3M V 0ME; GASOLINE: +3.3M V 0ME; DISTILLATE: -0.4M V -1ME
(US) Fed's Barkin (FOMC voter, hawk): Demand very strong, consumers spending and profits high
GM Announces Ultra Cruise, enabling true hands-free driving across 95% of driving scenarios
NIH's Fauci: Confirms US FDA examining data on mixing and matching boosters (as announced on 10/1)
(US) GOP Sen Leader McConnell reportedly just told a closed meeting of Senate Republicans that he would offer a short-term debt ceiling extension today (Defined & fixed Dollar amount) - press
(EU) ECB reportedly studying new bond buying plan for when PEPP ends, plan to prevent widening of spreads - press
(US) Energy Sec Granholm: Release of crude oil from Strategic Petroleum Reserve is a 'tool that's under consideration' to tame fuel price rises; Does not rule out a ban on crude oil exports - FT interview
K Spokesperson: Company is preparing to begin plant operations again amid strike; To use salaried employees and third-party workers to restart facilities
COST Reports Sep total SSS +9.4% (ex-gas and FX) vs 5.6% in 2019
TWTR Enters into definitive agreement to sell MoPub to AppLovin for $1.05B cash

THRS 10/7
NG.UK Reportedly sees UK has enough gas supply capacity to meet demand, but warns of tight electricity supplies this winter - financial press
SON Implementing 5th price increase of 2021 of $60/Ton for uncoated recycled paperboard; Cites continued inflationary pressures
CAG Reports Q1 $0.50 v $0.48e, Rev $2.65B v $2.55Be
UAL Reportedly plans >3.5K domestic flights in Dec (largest domestic schedule since the pandemic star and 91% of 2019 rate) - press
(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 326K V 348KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 2.71M V 2.76ME
(US) Sen Maj Leader Schumer: Deal has been reached with GOP Leader McConnell on short-term debt ceiling raise until early Dec
(US) Energy Dept spokesperson: We are not planning to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve or to pursue a ban on crude exports - press
(US) AUG CONSUMER CREDIT: $14.4B V $17.5BE
TSLA CEO Musk: hopeful chip shortage will resolve soon; To volume produce Tesla Semi trucks and Roadster in 2023; No stock split expected any time soon - Annual Meeting
005930.KR Reports prelim Q3 (KRW) Op 15.8T v 12.4T y/y (16.1Te), Rev 73.0T v 67.0T y/y (73.5Te)
(US) Senate votes 50-48 to increase debt ceiling until early Dec 2021; the measure will now move to the US House; White House has said that President Biden would sign the bill

FRI 10/8
(HU) Hungary Fin Min Varga: Govt has accepted OECD global minimum tax agreement (**Note: move follows Ireland recently)
OSK Cuts outlook following significant supply chain and logistics disruptions; Guides Q4 $0.90-0.95 v $1.77e; Cuts Q4 Rev ~$2.05B v $2.15Be (prior ~$2.10B); Approves FY change
(CN) Global Times' Editorial article: We must resolutely define the US troops deployment in Taiwan as an invasion; The mainland has the right to carry out military strikes against them at any time
(US) SEPT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.8% V 5.1%E
(US) SEPT AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M: 0.6% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 4.6% V 4.6%E
(US) White House reportedly considering wide-ranging effort on oversight of crypto assets - press

Markets grow more skittish amid inflation pressures

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Markets grow more skittish amid inflation pressures

2021-10-01T17:51:13.653

The third quarter drew to a close with many cautionary factors weighing on the investor outlook after a rally in stock markets for much of the year. In recent weeks, the US Federal Reserve and other global central banks have tilted toward reining in pandemic-era stimulus measures. A recent surge in natural gas prices in Europe and Asia raised concerns that the current bout of inflation pressures will last longer than many market participants and central bankers had expected. Rising energy costs could also be expected to take a toll on growth in the world economy with the Northern Hemisphere head towards winter. Corporate updates remained mired in commentary about supply chain constraints that are not only not improving, but in some areas getting worse. That cocktail of pessimism, along with potential technical factors related to month and quarter end resulted in a significant three day sell off for US equity markets. The major indices finally fell 5% from the recent highs and US Treasury yields moved up to levels not seen since June, with the 10-year yield spending much of the week above 1.50%. The NASDAQ saw lingering relative weakness in part due the persistent upward pressure on rates. WTI crude prices neared levels not seen since 2008 and Brent topped $80 a barrel with host of analysts calling for $100+ oil this winter. For the week, the S&P fell 2.2%, the DJIA lost 1.4%, and the Nasdaq was down 3.2%.

Price pressures and supply chain bottlenecks continued to dominate corporate news this week. Bed, Bath and Beyond shares slid almost 20% after cutting guidance as traffic slowed significantly in August while supply chain and inflation challenges also weighed on the name. Micron Q1 earnings outlook disappointed the Street while analysts worried about a decline in memory pricing. Meanwhile AMD executives said demand for chips has not cooled down, and supply is expected to remain tight into the first half of next year. Automaker BMW boosted its FY guidance, saying it expects that the continuing positive pricing effects for vehicles will overcompensate the negative sales volume effects it has seen in the industry. Merck announced data for a promising new Covid treatment on Friday sending its shares higher while vaccine makers saw their stocks tumble. Merck also entered a deal to acquire Acceleron this week in order to bolster its rare disease drug portfolio.


SUN 9/26
(DE) German Social Democrats (SPD) leads Merkel's CDU/CSU coalition by 2 points in federal elections - ZDF exit polls
(US) Speaker Pelosi sets Thursday (Sept 30th) to vote on $1.0T infrastructure bill (v prior vote was scheduled for Monday, Sept 27th)
BP.UK Updates on shortage of deliver drivers in UK: 30% of UK fuel stations have nearly no gas to supply, 1.2K locations are running out of the 2 main fuel types
(DE) Germany Election Final Results: Social Democrats (SPD) Scholz 25.7%; CDU/CSU Laschet 24.1%; Greens Baerbock 14.8% (Greens best results in national election) - Federal Returning Officer

MON 9/27
(CN) Guangdong, China has asked people to turn off lights they don't need and use their air conditioning less as energy crisis spreads from the factories to homes - press
(CN) Reportedly some Apple and Tesla suppliers halted production at certain Chinese plants to comply with new tighter energy consumption rules - Nikkei
ENOB Successfully completes FDA Pre-IND for a Potential Cure for Hepatitis B virus infection; Company encouraged by clear path following review of FDA’s CBER written comments
(US) Fed's Rosengren (non-voter) said to retire on Sept 30th - press
*(US) SEPT DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY INDEX: 4.6 V 11.0E
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Cuts Q3 GDP forecast to 3.2% from 3.7%
(US) Dallas Fed's Kaplan to retire on Oct 8th
HUN Activist Starboard reportedly builds over 8% stake - press
AMD President and CEO: H1 2022 will still likely see tight supply; demand for chips has not 'cooled down'; Sees chip shortage 'less severe' in H2 2022 - US financial press interview
F Announces Electric Vehicles Mega Campus in Tennessee and Twin Battery Plants in Kentucky; $11.4B Investment to Create 11,000 Jobs and Power New Lineup of Advanced EVs

TUES 9/28
Jefferies Cuts U.S. Real Estate to Market Weight from Overweight
*(DE) GERMANY OCT GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: +0.3 V -1.5E (1st positive reading in 19 months)
THO Reports Q4 $4.12 v $2.91e, Rev $3.59B v $3.33Be; Says demand for our RV products remains very robust, continuing to exceed production output; Affirms positive long-term outlook for the RV industry
PFE Confirms submission of initial data from Phase 2/3 to US FDA from pivotal trial of COVID-19 vaccine in children 5 to <12 years of age; The 10 µg dose was carefully selected as preferred dose for safety, tolerability and immunogenicity in children 5 to <12 years of age; Expect Topline immunogenicity and safety readouts for children 2 to <5 years of age and children 6 months to <2 years of age by Q4
TTE.FR To increase energy production by 30% from now to 2030; Cuts higher-end Capex target to $13-15B/yr (prior $13-16B/yr); To buy back $1.5B in shares in Q4 - investor meeting
*(US) AUG PRELIMINARY WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M: 1.2% V 0.8%E
*(US) SEPT RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: -3 V 10E; New Orders -19
*(US) SEPT CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 109.3 V 115.0E
BYTEDANCE.IPO Confirms introduction of Tiktok shopping, a suite of solutions, features and advertising tools
(US) Senate GOP officially blocks vote to suspend debt ceiling - press
PFE Pfizer and BioNTech reportedly may not complete Emergency Use Authorization for COVID-19 vaccine for children until mid-Oct; Authorization may not come until Nov (previously anticipated by end of October) - press
MU Reports Q4 $2.42 v $2.33e, Rev $8.27B v $8.11Be; Guides Q1 below consensus; Confirms initiates a quarterly dividend (announced in August)
SHW Cuts outlook for second time this month: Q3 $1.80-1.90 v $2.42e, Net sales flat to down slightly y/y; Cites escalating raw material availability challenges and inflation headwinds
MU Exec: Shortages are causing adjustments in memory orders; Our outlook is similar to how we viewed Q4. - earnings call and slides
2066.HK Evergrande disposes of 1.75B shares in company for CNY10B (~$1.55B) to Shenyang Shengjing Finance Investment Group [subsidiary of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Shenyang People’s Government (“Shenyang SASAC”)]
MRNA Reportedly FDA is leaning towards an authorization of coronavirus booster shot at half dose (50-micrograms) - US financial press
005935.KR Said to be near picking Williamson County in Texas a site for US Chip Plant worth ~$17B - Press

WEDS 9/29
ASML.NL Targets FY25 Rev €24-30B, gross margin 54-56%; Says significant opportunities are beyond - Investor day
*(JP) JAPAN LDP ELECTION 1ST ROUND RESULTS: TO HEAD INTO RUNOFF BETWEEN KISHIDA AND KONO (as expected)
*(JP) JAPAN ELECTION RESULTS: KISHIDA TO BECOME NEXT JAPAN PM AFTER VOTE RUNOFF
*(ES) SPAIN SEPT PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.8% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 4.0% V 3.5%E (highest annual pace since Sept 2008)
(DE) German Greens Co-leader Baerbock: Aiming for swift coalition talks, should not have a repeat of 2017 lengthy coalition negotiations
*(US) AUG PENDING HOME SALES M/M: 8.1% V 1.3%E; Y/Y: -6.3% V -13.8%E
*(US) DOE CRUDE: +4.6M V -2.5ME; GASOLINE: +0.2M V +1ME; DISTILLATE: +0.4M V -1.5ME
*(CN) CHINA SEPT MANUFACTURING PMI (GOVT OFFICIAL): 49.6 V 50.0E (1st contraction in 18 months)

THURS 9/30
(US) Sen Maj Leader Schumer (D-NY) says he has agreement with Republicans for stopgap funding bill vote on Thursday
(UK) Britain’s biggest retailers said to warn shoppers to expect a “nightmare” Christmas with limited stock on the shelves and higher prices amid labor shortages and shipping problems - financial press
*(UK) Q2 FINAL GDP Q/Q: 5.5% V 4.8%E; Y/Y: 23.6% V 22.2%E
DGE.UK Issues Q1 Trading Update: strong start to FY22, organic net sales momentum across all regions
*(FR) FRANCE SEPT PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: -0.2% V -0.1%E; Y/Y: 2.1% V 2.2%E
*(DE) GERMANY SEPT NET UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -30.0K V -37.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS RATE: 5.5% V 5.5%E
*(EU) EURO ZONE AUG UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 7.5% V 7.5%E
*(IT) ITALY SEPT PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: -0.1% V -0.3%E; Y/Y: 2.6% V 2.4%E
MKC Reports Q3 $0.80 v $0.73e, Rev $1.55B v $1.56Be; Cuts FY21 guidance citing primarily reflects higher inflation and industry-wide logistics challenges
XLRN To be acquired by Merck for $180/shr in $11.5B cash deal
BBBY Reports Q2 $0.04 v $0.53e, Rev $1.99B v $2.06Be; Guides Q3 weak and cuts FY21 outlook citing Aug traffic slowed significantly
*(DE) GERMANY SEPT PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.0% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 4.1% V 4.2%E
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 362K V 330KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 2.80M V 2.79ME
*(CZ) CZECH CENTRAL BANK (CNB) RAISES 2-WEEK REPURCHASE RATE BY 75BPS TO 1.50%; MORE-THAN-EXPECTED
*(US) Q2 FINAL GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: 6.7% V 6.6%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 12.0% V 11.9%E
(US) Nevada reports Aug casino gaming Rev $1.17B, +57% y/y; Las Vegas strip Rev $625.7M, +97.2% y/y
*(US) SEPT CHICAGO PURCHASE MANAGERS INDEX (PMI): 64.7 V 65.0E
(US) Fed Chair Powell: Fed finds itself in difficult situation in regards to tension between inflation and employment; Inflation is well above target but we are still far away from full employment - House testimony
(DK) Denmark Central Bank (Nationalbanken) cuts certificate of deposit rate due to sale of foreign currency; Cuts Certificate of Deposit rate 10bps to -0.60% from -0.50%, Cuts lending rate to -0.45% from -0.35%; Keeps all other rates unchanged
(US) NY Fed takes $1.61T in RRP program (record high) at 0.05%; 92 participating and accepted counterparties

FRI 10/1
(EU) EURO ZONE SEPT ADVANCE CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: 3.4% V 3.3%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 1.9% V 1.9%E (3rd month above target and (highest annual pace since 2008)
Merck and Ridgeback’s Investigational Oral (Pill) Antiviral Molnupiravir reduced risk of hospitalization or death by ~50% compared to placebo for patients with mild or moderate COVID-19 in positive interim analysis of Phase 3 study; Expects to produce 10M courses of treatment by end of 2021, with more doses expected to be produced in 2022 and expects to seek EUA as soon as possible
(US) SEPT ISM MANUFACTURING: 61.1 V 59.5E; PRICES PAID: 81.2 V 78.5E
GM Reports Q3 deliveries 447.0K, -32.8% y/y v -31.5%e; Affirms FY21 outlook: Semiconductor supply disruptions that impacted Q3 wholesale and customer deliveries are improving
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Cuts Q3 GDP forecast to 2.3% from 3.2%
(US) Fed's Mester (non-voter, hawk): Current supply-demand situation is pandemic linked, Expects interest rate lift off in 2022
(US) FDA to hold Oct 14-15th advisory committee meetings to discuss EUA for booster doses; Oct 26th meeting scheduled vaccines for younger children - press

Evergrande worries roil markets, while Fed confident tapering can start soon

TradeTheNews.com 

Weekly Market Update: Evergrande worries roil markets, while Fed confident tapering can start soon

2021-09-24T16:05:17.003

Trading commenced this week with a thud, as worries about contagion from a potential debt default by China’s Evergrande caused a flight from risk assets, notably stocks. At one point on Monday the Dow lost nearly 1,000 points and US equity markets saw a roughly 5% drawdown from the recent highs intraday. Adding to the consternation, conservative Democratic Senator Machin noted he thought Congress should take a “strategic pause” until 2022 before taking up President Biden’s $3.5T social spending package, casting doubts on the fate of the infrastructure bill that is being moved in parallel. Simultaneously, time was running out for a deal to raise the debt ceiling leaving a potential US government shutdown looming. Stocks rebounded somewhat late in Monday’s session and steadied as investors turned their attention the mid-week FOMC meeting.

On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve signaled it could start reversing its pandemic stimulus programs in November and affirmed market expectations that the central bank could also begin raising interest rates next year. Chairman Powell’s tone was somewhat more hawkish than previous as he seemed to downplay emphasizing the transitory nature of rising inflation while noting it was his view that the taper test had been “all but met”. The next day the BOE statement acknowledged some recent developments have strengthened the case for modest tightening. Global treasury yields started to track significantly higher and stock markets roared back. News that the FDA formally authorized a booster dose of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine for expanded populations may have aided the sharp rebound in sentiment. Before the opening bell on Friday US indices were up on the week and US Treasury yields had broken above key levels that had served as resistance throughout the summer. Commodity prices had come back from Monday’s weakness and the US dollar held at firmer levels. Crypto markets experienced modest downside pressure, hurt in part by concerned concerns about Chinese regulation. For the week, the S&P gained 0.5% and the DJIA added 0.6%, while the Nasdaq was flat.

In corporate news this week, Nike’s Q1 results weighed on the Dow after management indicated they expect to continue to struggle with supply chain constraints through the holiday season. Shares of FedEx also dropped as higher wages hit its Q1 earnings, and the shipping giant said it planned to further increase US prices. Carnival Cruises said it would likely be able to restart over 50% of its fleet capacity by Oct and that its cumulative bookings for H2’22 were ahead of its 2019 pace. Uber upgraded its outlook, saying it will hit positive adj EBITDA in July and August and was tracking positive for Q3, ahead of its prior guidance. Pfizer released encouraging topline results from the trial of its COVID-19 vaccine in children 5 to 11 years, and expects data from 2-5 year old and 6 months-to-2 year old cohorts as soon as Q4’21.


SUN 9/19
3333.HK Next interest payments due Thursday, Sept 23rd, to be closely watched for possible default and spillover
(US) US investigating 30M vehicles over possible Takata airbag defects - press

MON 9/20
(US) Reportedly Senator Manchin (D-WV) believes Congress should take a "strategic pause" until 2022 before voting on Pres Biden’s $3.5T social-spending package - Axios
(UK) UK meat industry said to have warned about carbon dioxide (CO2) shortage; some meat firms have 5 days of available CO2 supply - press
PFE Announces positive topline results from pivotal trial of COVID-19 vaccine in children 5 to 11 Years; Data from children 2-5 years of age and children 6 months to 2 years of age expected as soon as Q4-2021
DHI Cuts Q4 Rev $7.7-7.9B v $8.23Be (prior $7.9-8.4B), homes closed 21.3-21.7K (prior 23-24.5K), raises home sales gross margin 26.5-26.8% (prior 26.0-26.3%)
*(US) SEPT NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX: 76 V 74E
(US) White House Covid adviser Zients: Confirms U.S to reopen travel to fully vaccinated foreign nationals, CDC to determine what will be deemed fully vaccinated
APD Announces N.A. price increase for liquid and bulk industrial gas products for merchant customers, effective Oct 1
FDX Shipping rates to increase on average by 5.9% for US domestic, US export, US import services; Effective Jan 3 ,2022
LEN Reports Q3 $3.27 v $3.24e, Rev $6.94B v $7.27Be; Q4 guidance implies FY21 deliveries 60K (guided 62-64K)
RDSA.UK Signs agreement to sell Permian interest for $9.5B to ConocoPhillips
(US) Senators Durbin and Cantwell sent letters to DOJ and FAA urging them to take tougher action on dangerous airline passengers
(CA) Canada PM Trudeau projected to win 3rd term; Liberal party to form Govt (minority) - CTV

TUES 9/21
(CN) Due to concerns on Evergrande debt repayment, Ashmore, BlackRock and Pacific Investment Management said to be selling property sector holdings in China - US financial press
(CZ) Czech Central Bank's Holub (chief economist): likely to support a 50bps hike at Sept 30's meeting
UBER Narrows Q3 gross bookings $22.8-23.2B (prior $22-24B); Says achieved positive adj EBITDA in July and Aug and tracking positive for Q3 (ahead of prior guidance)
ENT.UK Confirms cash and stock proposal from DraftKings
(NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction Dairy Trade price index: +1.0% v +4.0% prior
(US) SEC Chair Gensler: Securities rules give the SEC great authority over crypto assets; Do NOT see much long-term viability for cryptocurrencies - WSJ
(US) TREASURY $24B 20-YEAR BOND REOPENING DRAWS 1.795%, BID-TO-COVER 2.36 v 2.33 PRIOR
COIN CEO: Confirms plans to submit proposals to regulators by next month - Techcrunch conf comments
(US) House of representatives agrees on bill to suspend debt ceiling through 2022 via date method only, funds Govt through Dec 3rd; the final vote was 217 to 207

WEDS 9/22
HUN Implements €125/t Natural Gas Surcharge on MDI Sales in Europe, effective Oct 1st
(CN) Morgan Stanley analysts see China to potentially initiate a managed debt restructuring of Evergrande next week
PFE PFE-BNTX expands collaboration with US to provide 500M additional COVID-19 vaccine doses, for a total of 1.0B doses, at not-for-profit price for donation to poorest countries
*(US) AUG EXISTING HOME SALES: 5.88M V 5.89ME
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -3.5M V -2.5ME; GASOLINE: +3.5M V -1ME; DISTILLATE: -2.6M V -1ME
*(US) FOMC LEAVES TARGET RANGE UNCHANGED BETWEEN 0.00-0.25% (AS EXPECTED); POLICYMAKERS EXPECT FIRST RATE HIKE IN 2022; BOND TAPER MAY SOON BE WARRANTED
(US) Fed Chief Powell: We discussed pace of tapering and generally agreed that if economy plays out as expected we could finish tapering by middle of next year - post rate decision press conference
(US) Fed Chief Powell: We could reach conclusion that both tests have been met for tapering as soon as the next meeting; Taper test is 'all but met'- rate decision Q&A
PFE FDA Authorizes Booster Dose of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine for Certain Populations

THURS 9/23
EO.FR Cuts FY21 Rev €15.5B (prior >€16.5B) cites major cut by IHS Markit of global auto production forecast for H2 2021
MRNA CEO: COVID-19 pandemic could be over in a year with increased vaccine production ensures global supplies - Swiss press interview
*(FR) FRANCE SEPT PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 55.2 V 57.0E (10th month of expansion but lowest reading since Jan 2021)
*(DE) GERMANY SEPT PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 58.5 V 61.4E (15th month of expansion but lowest reading since Jan 2021)
*(CH) SWISS NATIONAL BANK (SNB) LEAVES KEY RATES UNCHANGED AT -0.75%; AS EXPECTED
*(EU) EURO ZONE SEPT PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 58.7 V 60.3E (15th month of expansion but lowest reading since Feb 2021)
*(NO) NORWAY CENTRAL BANK (NORGES) RAISES DEPOSIT RATES BY 25BPS TO 0.25%; AS EXPECTED; Most likely to raise Deposit Rate further in Dec; First G10 to hike post-pandemic
*(UK) SEPT PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 56.3 V 59.0E (16th straight expansion but lowest reading since Feb 2021)
3333.HK China's financial regulators said to have given instructions to Evergrande in order to avoid near-term dollar bond default - press
3333.HK (CN) China authorities said to have asked local governments to prepare for potential fall of Evergrande Group - US financial press
(EU) ECB members reportedly see risk of inflation exceeding projections; Some said to be open to increasing APP buying (conventional QE) temporarily to avoid cliff effect - press
3333.HK (CN) Evergrande dollar bondholders said to still have not received interest payment on 5-year bond due Thursday, Sept 23rd - press
*(UK) BANK OF ENGLAND (BOE) LEAVES INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED AT 0.10%; AS EXPECTED
*(TR) TURKEY CENTRAL BANK (CBRT) CUTS ONE-WEEK REPO RATE BY 100BPS TO 18.00%; NOT EXPECTED
*(UK) BOE SEPT MINUTES: VOTED 9-0 TO LEAVE INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED AT 0.10%
AAPL Reportedly iPhones may need to be redesigned following push from the EU on a common USB-C charger - press
CRM Raises again FY22 Rev $26.3-26.4B (prior $26.2-26.3B) - PR ahead of investor day
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 351K V 320KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 2.85M V 2.60ME
CCL Reports on pace to restart over 50% of fleet capacity by Oct; Plans for additional ship restarts to reach overall goal to return 65% of capacity by Dec 31st
*(US) SEPT PRELIMINARY MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 60.5 V 61.0E
(US) NY Fed takes $1.35T in RRP program (record high) at 0.05%; 77 participating and accepted counterparties
PFE (US) CDC Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) votes unanimously (15 votes yes; 0 votes No; 0 votes to Abstain) unanimously, in favor of a single PFE-BNTX COVID-19 vaccine booster dose being recommended for persons aged >= 65 years, and LTCF* residents, at least 6 months after the primary series under the FDA's Emergency Use Authorization (EUA)
NKE Reports Q1 $1.16 v $1.12e, Rev $12.2B v $12.5Be\
COST Reports Q4 $3.76 v $3.55e, Rev $62.7B v $62.8Be
NKE CFO: Expects Q2 Rev growth to be flat to down low single digits as factory closures impact production and delivery for the holiday and spring seasons; Expect all geographies to be affected by supply chain issues - earnings call comments
3333.HK *USD BONDHOLDERS SAY HAVE NOT YET RECEIVED INTEREST PAYMENTS [in line with report that circulated during the NY morning on Thurs]

FRI 9/24
*(DE) GERMANY SEPT IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE SURVEY: 98.8 V 99.0E
(CN) China State Planner NDRC: Declares all crypto related activities and transactions illegal; To strictly prohibit financial support for new cryptocurrency mining projects
(US) Fed's Mester (non-voter, hawk): Supports QE tapering in Nov and concluding over H1 2022; See conditions for rate liftoff met by end of 2022
CCL Reports cumulative advanced bookings for H2'22 are ahead of a very strong 2019
(US) AUG NEW HOME SALES: 740K V 715KE

Inflation, supply chain, and Delta continue to trouble markets, but some hopeful signs emerge

TradeTheNews.com 

 Weekly Market Update: Inflation, supply chain, and Delta continue to trouble markets, but some hopeful signs emerge

2021-09-17T16:06:54.073

Markets see-sawed this week and treasury yields backed up as investors grappled with mixed US and China economic data as well as the continued spread of the Delta variant. US August CPI data offered some of the first signs that inflation may be easing as Fed Chairman Powell has remained steadfast in forecasting. An unexpectedly strong rebound in August retail sales, alongside robust September manufacturing readings, offset decelerating economic readings out of China. Friday saw the PBOC undertake a significant liquidity add in an attempt to sooth market nerves frayed by quarter-end funding needs and China Evergrande Group’s mounting debt crisis.

Concerns about global stagnation lingered, amplified by a surge in energy prices in Europe. Natural gas and power prices spiked and EU government officials took notice as winter fast approaches. Rising prices in Europe forced US natural gas prices to the highest level since 2018. On the other hand iron ore prices dropped nearly 20%, the worst week since the financial crisis in 2008. Interest rates rose, highlighted by the highest US 10-year Treasury and Bund yields seen since early July. The greenback firmed up resulting in a 2-month low print for the Euro. By Friday, the S&P 500 was near testing its 50-day moving average, which has served as significant support on multiple occasions through 2021. For the week, the S&P fell 0.6%, the DJIA slipped 0.1%, and the Nasdaq gave up 0.5%.

In corporate news, Oracle’s Q1 earnings report disappointed investors as revenue growth was not as impressive as some hoped. Trading in Pfizer and Moderna was volatile as the companies shared more data and an FDA advisory panel debated the merits of Pfizer’s Covid booster shot for the general population. Automobile producers announced more plants would be temporarily idled amid the ongoing global shortage of semiconductor chips. Steel Dynamics and Nucor both raised guidance driven by higher selling prices and robust order books for steel. In M&A, Intuit announced it would acquire marketing platform Mailchimp for about $12B in cash and shares. Major pigment manufacturer Tronox reportedly received a $4.3B takeover approach from Apollo Global.


SUN 9/12
6688.HK Said that China is seeking to break up Alipay from company - FT

MON 9/13
OPEC Monthly Oil Report: Raises 2022 global oil demand growth
(US) Aug NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations: Survey shows improvement in expectations; Average reservation wage increases y/y
TROX Apollo reportedly makes $27/shr offer to acquire Tronox in $4.3B all-cash deal - press
(US) SEC Chair Gensler: SEC staff are examining 5 market structure projects
(US) AUG MONTHLY BUDGET STATEMENT: -$170.6B V -$177.5BE
- Receipts: $268B, +20% y/y
ORCL Reports Q1 $1.03 v $0.97e, Rev $9.73B v $9.77Be
INTU Confirms to acquire marketing platform for growing small and mid-market businesses Mailchimp for ~$12B in cash and shares
(CN) New delta variant COVID cases in Fujian province in China 59 v 22 yesterday, total now 102 since outbreak first started; Xiamen halts outbound bus services after outbreak

TUES 9/14
(DE) German 2022 baseload power price rises 2.1% to €101.1/MWh v €91.4/MWh w/w (highest ever)
BA Slightly raises 20-year jet deliveries expectations to 43.6K jets (prior 43.1K); full International recovery not till 2024 (US) AUG AUG CPI M/M: 0.3% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 5.3% V 5.3%E (lowest annual pace since May 2021's print); CPI (ex-food/energy) M/M: 0.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 4.0% v 4.2%e
(US) Three House Democrats announce they do not plan to support Biden drug pricing proposal - press

WEDS 9/15
Evergrande China said to have told banks that company will not pay interest [related to bank loans] that is Due on Mon, Sept 20th
(UK) AUG CPI M/M: 0.7% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 3.2% V 2.9%E (moves back above target; highest level since Apr 2012, biggest jump in annual pace since 1997)
(UK) Reportedly fire hit key electricity converter station in UK shutting down a major 2,000 MW IFA cable linking UK to France – press
F Ford, Argo AI, and Walmart partner to launch Autonomous Vehicle delivery service in three US cities
STLD Guides Q3 adj $4.88-4.92 v $4.29e; Order entry continues to be robust
(US) SEPT EMPIRE MANUFACTURING: 34.3 V 17.9E; New Orders surge back to prior highs
Colonial Pipeline: Lines 1 and 2 are restored to normal operations after storm
(US) DOE CRUDE: -6.4M V -2.5ME; GASOLINE: -1.9M V -2.5ME; DISTILLATE: -1.7M V -1.5ME (Crude stocks fall to lowest since Sept 2019)
MRNA Highlights new clinical data on its COVID-19 vaccine; Believes data support benefit of an mRNA-1273 booster dose; mRNA-1273 remains highly effective against COVID-19 in real-world effectiveness study during surge in Delta cases
3333.HK All onshore bonds to suspend trading on the session; Unit Hengda Real Estate adjusts trading mechanism of bonds

THURS 9/16
(US) SEPT PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK: 30.7 V 19.0E
(US) AUG ADVANCE RETAIL SALES M/M: +0.7% V -0.7%E; RETAIL SALES (EX-AUTO) M/M: 1.8% V 0.0%E
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 332K V 322KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 2.67M V 2.74ME
(EU) An unpublished ECB inflation estimate said to raise the chance of a interest rate rise in just over 2-years; Expects to hit 2% inflation target by 2025 - Financial Times
NUE Guides Q3 $7.30-7.40 v $6.52e (Record earnings)
IVZ.UK Invesco reportedly in discussions to merge with State Street's asset management division - press

FRI 9/17
(EU) EURO ZONE AUG FINAL CPI Y/Y: 3.0% V 3.0%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 1.6% V 1.6%E (confirms highest annual pace since 2011)
(US) Treasury said to be planning sanction to target ransomware crypto payments - press
GM Reportedly set to idle some of its North American plants for longer amid chip shortage - press
(US) SEPT PRELIMINARY UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 71.0 V 72.0E
STLA Jefferson North Assembly plant in Detroit to be idled week of Sept 20th due to the global chip shortage – press
PFE US FDA Advisory Committee votes against (2 votes Yes; 16 votes No; 0 vote to Abstain) of support of approval of a COMIRNATY booster dose