Thursday, June 3, 2010

Jun 03 2010

Having to replace my harddrive today, publishing this bit so far and hope to be back before close.

Countertrend play for bounce after the sharp drop with deployment of our "mini-range recross" method. Chart with annotations is pretty much self-explanatory. In a few min we repeated close setup with LVS.

Session Start: Thu Jun 03 08:18:28 2010
Session Ident: #discussions
03[08:18] * Now talking in #discussions
[08:18] {nemo} AWIAV?
[08:26] {magoo} making my eading and chart rounds
[08:27] {magoo} reading
[08:27] {Threei} *(US) MAY ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: 55K V 70KE
[08:30] {Threei} *(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 453K V 455KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4.666M V 4.61ME
[08:30] {Threei} *(US) Q1 FINAL NONFARM PRODUCTIVITY 2.8% V 3.4%E; UNIT LABOR COSTS: -1.3% V -1.4%E
[08:38] {magoo} i like the FAs and FAZ trade vad, been doing well with thm
[08:39] {Threei} yeah, I kept awat from them after first split, second made them playable again
[08:46] {magoo} mkts have NOT closed green 2 days in a row since april 22 & 23
[08:46] {magoo} S&P 500
[08:46] {Threei} after that relentless rally, only fair :)
[08:51] {Threei} (HU) EU's Barroso: Hungary needs to implement more structural reforms (related EUR/HUF CE4FX )
[08:51] {Threei} HungaryL look who is talking
[08:56] {dptl} morning
[08:57] {Threei} dp :)
[09:09] {dino} gm all
[09:09] {Threei} dino :)
[09:11] {Threei} why is BP happy
[09:11] {Threei} well, less happy than hour ago, but atill
[09:11] {nemo} oversold bounce....for now
[09:11] {Threei} nothing but troubles
[09:11] {larisa} gm :)
[09:11] {Threei} larisa :)
[09:12] {larisa} :)
[09:14] {RonS} gm all
[09:14] {Threei} Ron :)
[09:15] {Threei} British Petroleum plc Moody's downgrades ratings by one notch to Aa2 from Aa1; on review for further possible downgrade
[09:15] {Threei} - Affects $25.1B in debt
[09:15] {Threei} - Cites: Today's downgrade of BP's long-term debt ratings reflects Moody's expectation that the protracted oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, caused by the explosion on the Transocean Deepwater Horizon drilling rig, will result in significant containment and clean-up costs as well as litigation costs. Moody's expects these costs to weigh significantly on BP's free cash flow generating capacity and to constrain its ability to focus on other key areas of the company's business in the near to intermediate term
[09:15] {Threei} ** Earlier in the session Fitch downgraded rating by one notch to "AA" from "AA+"; Placed on watch negative
[09:18] {RonS} hmmm...why is Europe up so much when their retail sales came in at the Oct 2008 level?
[09:18] {nemo} oversold bounce
[09:18] {Threei} yeah
[09:18] {Threei} no particular reason beyond that
[09:19] {shorty} morning all
[09:19] {Threei} shorty :)
[09:20] {RonS} did ya hear?...Obama became the first President in history to pre-announce the employment number...
[09:20] {nemo} short stuff
[09:20] {nemo} yeah, I put the link up yesterday
[09:20] {Threei} guys, my overnight attempts to save harddrive gave no result, so will have to replace it
[09:20] {Threei} thankfully, full backup is in place
[09:21] {Threei} will have to leave for a few hours at around 11 am
[09:21] {Threei} and if everything goes as planned, will be back before close
[09:21] {RonS} bummer...i hate that stuff...
[09:21] {Threei} yeah
[09:21] {Threei} second time within a year
[09:22] {Threei} I don't know what seagate makes them of
[09:22] {Threei} I am familiar with signs now, and keep backup regularly updated
[09:23] {Threei} those three disconnects yesterday, that was my computer rebooting itself
[09:25] {dino} s/p has not been up two days in row since april 22 and 23
[09:26] {nemo} is there an echo?
[09:26] {Threei} [08:46] {magoo} mkts have NOT closed green 2 days in a row since april 22 & 23
[09:26] {Threei} [08:46] {magoo} S&P 500
[09:26] {Threei} [08:46] {Threei} after that relentless rally, only fair :)
[09:26] {ese} god back from Abbotsford
[09:26] {nemo} today will be the first
[09:26] {nemo} sounds like a Jane Austen novel ese
[09:26] {lasertrev} morning all
[09:26] {ese} hmmmmm now that you mention it
[09:26] {dino} lol, opps
[09:27] {ese} learned something about Abbotsford though...........
[09:27] {Threei} ese, trev :)
[09:27] {nemo} I thought today was awful Les
[09:27] {ese} murder capitol of Canada
[09:27] {RonS} ...was wondering where the pester Lester was...
[09:27] {Threei} seriously?
[09:27] {Threei} that title was firmly help by winnipeg for many years
[09:27] {ese} yup
[09:28] {RonS} ese, where is it?
[09:28] {Threei} held
[09:28] {ese} very serious
[09:28] {ese} more dope smuggling across the border there than anywhere else in the country
[09:28] {shorty} wow, never would have thought that ese.
[09:28] {ese} me either
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: BP .80 break half lot
[09:31] {Threei} if stays under .95
[09:31] {Threei} not in a short list
[09:32] {Threei} oh well
[09:32] {nemo} wonder why
[09:32] {shorty} In .79
[09:32] {nemo} what's with cstr?
[09:32] {Threei} GLDD Strength attributed to company benefiting from the construction of sand berms on Louisiana coast line (6.71, +0.76, 12.77%)
[09:32] {nemo} wow
[09:32] {nemo} 3 points two minutes
[09:33] {Threei} ?
[09:33] {nemo} cstr
[09:34] {Threei} - GLDD provides marine dredging services in the Gulf
[09:34] {jfjf64} f
[09:35] {Threei} BP 1:1
[09:35] {nemo} fas just spiked down
[09:35] {magoo} faz spike
[09:35] {nemo} really?
[09:35] {shorty} out 1:1 BP ty Threei
[09:35] {Threei} :)
[09:35] {nemo} shorty got a good "Short" list
[09:35] {jfjf64} late to party
[09:36] {jfjf64} grrrrrrr
[09:36] {jfjf64} hd problems server
[09:36] {shorty} nope
[09:36] {nemo} spy should bounce here
[09:37] {Threei} watching HAL for bounce
[09:37] {Threei} half lot
[09:37] {Threei} .70 break
[09:37] {Threei} if stays above .60
[09:38] {Threei} invalidated
[09:38] {Threei} not off radar
[09:39] {Threei} watching for double bottom if dives closer to .60 again
[09:39] {Threei} ok, 65 break
[09:39] {Threei} if stays above .55
[09:40] {nemo} in
[09:41] {Threei} no go
[09:42] {Threei} .55 break
[09:42] {Threei} if holding .50
[09:43] {jfjf64} uaua has feel momo
[09:43] {Threei} 1:2
[09:43] {Threei} half out
[09:43] {Threei} 1:3
[09:44] {ese} L mu .43
[09:46] {jfjf64} uaua l .41
[09:49] {nemo} .
[09:49] {Threei} 1:4, 1/4 more out
[09:49] {Threei} stop to under .60
[09:50] {Threei} 1:6, out in full
[09:50] {Threei} +.30
[09:50] {jfjf64} 1/1 uaua
[09:51] {jfjf64} half out
[09:52] {jfjf64} stop at .45 remainder
[09:53] {ese} out mu even......hmmmmmmm
[09:53] {jfjf64} gone
[09:53] {ese} goin nowhere fast
[09:54] {Threei} BP just can't raise its head
[09:54] {Threei} too bad short's unavailable
[09:54] {Threei} this is bound to become the best comic line of the day:
[09:54] {Threei} (EU) EU's Juncker: There is a clear need for a European credit rating agency
[09:55] {ese} what on your radar dino?
[09:55] {Threei} yours are no good, we want our own that will keep our marks high
[09:55] {magoo} look LVS vad
[09:56] {Threei} LVS needs good pullback
[09:56] {Threei} to aboput .80 - .90
[09:57] {jfjf64} rimm got some giddy up
[09:57] {RonS} ...reports in 2 minutes...
[09:57] {shorty} Feel free to call BP short calls for me Threei....
[09:59] {dino} ese, nothing yet, searching.... bj, jngw?
[09:59] {jfjf64} xom 5 min
[09:59] {nemo} fas pulled back (slightly to support)
[10:00] {ese} tks
[10:00] {Threei} US) APRIL FACTORY ORDERS: 1.2% V 1.8%E
[10:00] {Threei} *(US) MAY ISM NON-MANUFACTURING: 55.4 V 55.6E
[10:00] {Threei} LVS becomes interesting
[10:01] {Threei} one more leg down please
[10:02] {nemo} market didn't like those
[10:02] {Threei} ok
[10:03] {Threei} .90 break
[10:03] {Threei} if stays above .85
[10:03] {Les} give me something to kill!!
[10:04] {Les} mrongin
[10:04] {Threei} should be good for more than 1:1
[10:04] {nemo} 1/2 out
[10:05] {Threei} 1:2, half out
[10:05] {Les} half out ty
[10:06] {Threei} vene vidi vici
[10:06] {dino} pot, mos, cf, fcx, clf
[10:06] {Les} ty dino
[10:06] {shorty} Out full...ty again Threei.
[10:06] {Threei} :)
[10:06] {jfjf64} ty 3i
[10:06] {Les} absolutely. or as your american soldiers like to scream in bootcamp "kill, kill, kill, with cold blue steel"
[10:06] {nemo} ?
[10:06] {nemo} moron
[10:07] {Les} but vene vidi vici has a touch of class
[10:07] {nemo} we sing "singing in the rain" as we kick heads across the field
[10:07] {Les} ooh now you really worry me nemo
[10:07] {shorty} lol
[10:07] {Threei} CROX Hearing takeover chatter circulating
[10:07] {Threei} - Deckers named as interested in company (10.56, +0.26, 2.52%) (related DECK )
[10:07] {nemo} Full Metal Jacket
[10:08] {shorty} Poor Pile
[10:08] {dino} good flick
[10:08] {Threei} offering 1/4 .05
[10:08] {dino} rino luv
[10:09] {nemo} I feel like having a glass of wine
[10:10] {Threei} 1/4 more out
[10:10] {Threei} offering last part .11
[10:10] {dino} lol nemo
[10:10] {nemo} ?
[10:11] {nemo} Well, it's well afternoon at Les'
[10:11] {dino} bucy should folow joyg more
[10:11] {dino} sm l .25
[10:11] {nemo} fcx looks like might be forming Inverse H&S
[10:11] {nemo} sm l .25 what?
[10:12] {dino} bucy
[10:12] {nemo} ty
[10:12] {Threei} stop to under .95 for the last piece
[10:13] {Les} stopped .94
[10:13] {dino} rino rockin'
[10:13] {nemo} dino...opinion fcx
[10:14] {dino} break of 00 l
[10:14] {nemo} or bottom around .80?
[10:14] {jfjf64} 3i ya charts showing up very nice in blog
[10:14] {dino} yes
[10:15] {Threei} :)
[10:15] {jfjf64} a streanger wd think ya know what ya doing
[10:15] {Les} nice compliment jf, but they'll still ask "why no skype?"
[10:16] {jfjf64} lol
[10:16] {nemo} can't understand vad's accent anyway
[10:16] {jfjf64} ya must be from austrilia
[10:16] {dino} why not dino?
[10:17] {nemo} glad didn't play that break on fcx
[10:17] {dino} bucy stopped -.33
[10:18] {Les} l faz .51 stop .45
[10:18] {dino} you are lucky nemo
[10:18] {nemo} not really, broken clock moment
[10:19] {Threei} BP Coast Guard affirms the cut of the riser pipe has been completed; now must place the cap on to the leaking well (38.27, +0.61, 1.62%)
[10:19] {dino} all red
[10:20] {RonS} the oil and gas report at 10:30 or 10:35?
[10:20] {nemo} :30
[10:20] {RonS} thxs
[10:20] {Threei} Preview: DOE (EIA) Petroleum Inventories due at 11:00ET (delayed from Wed due to US holiday on Monday)
[10:20] {Threei} **consensus expectations:
[10:20] {Threei} Crude: -250Ke
[10:20] {Threei} Gasoline: -500Ke
[10:20] {Threei} Distillate: +250Ke
[10:20] {nemo} are they counting what's in the Gulf?
[10:21] {Les} hehe
[10:21] {Threei} lol
[10:21] {RonS} w/ the census workers
[10:21] {shorty} lol
[10:22] {dino} roflol
[10:23] {Les} 1:2 FAZ half out
[10:23] {nemo} yeah, every time they hire fire then rehire a census worker it counts as a new job...go figure
[10:24] {dino} 400k+ hired in this jobs report, such bs, as they will be unemployed at end of summer
[10:24] {RonS} ...some guys in NYC say they have been hired/fired/rehired 8 times
[10:24] {Les} 1:3 FAZ 1/4 more
[10:24] {nemo} rimm 200 coming up at .95
[10:27] {RonS} bucy sm l 3.40
[10:27] {dino} pot sm l .65
[10:28] {Threei} Short Setup: BP .90 break
[10:28] {Threei} if stays under 38
[10:28] {nemo} we can't
[10:29] {Threei} for those who can
[10:29] {Threei} noticed, therer are other people around?
[10:29] {nemo} they don't count
[10:29] {nemo} it's all about me
[10:29] {shorty} :)
[10:30] {dino} stopped pot -.19
[10:30] {Threei} IMF Planning to present a new banking tax proposal at the upcoming G-20 meeting
[10:31] {Threei} f****in imbeciles
[10:31] {nemo} in' or add a "g"
[10:31] {Threei} - Note: Both US Treasury Sec Geithner and EU's Barroso yesterday called for discussion of banking tax
[10:32] {dino} and john galt says, "get out of the way"
[10:32] {nemo} mmmmhhhhhh...I wonder if that's why they didn't restore the Volcker Rule Glass Steagal
[10:33] {nemo} Then they wouldn't have any reason to tax....This way, they can tax different types of financial entities differently
[10:33] {nemo} and bring in revenue
[10:33] {Threei} the only reason I can think of is, too many powerful folks would have to admit being dead wrong abolosihing it
[10:33] {Threei} and opening door to being called the reason for the whole debacle
[10:33] {shorty} stopped BP
[10:34] {dino} pot sm l .51 last try
[10:35] {dino} give 3i the prize, think barney frank
[10:35] {nemo} I'd rather not
[10:36] {ese} L stld .73 .70 to .75 range so agressive entry waiting for break above .75
[10:36] {dino} he's one who said lower the standards at fre, fnm
[10:36] {Threei} and who was that one that yelled at GS guys
[10:36] {nemo} yep
[10:36] {Threei} he was another one standing behind abolishing glass-steagal
[10:37] {Threei} summers too if I remember correct
[10:37] {dino} "they (fre,fnm)will do whatever i tell them"
[10:38] {Les} yeh whichever way the wind blows smart guys try to look smart
[10:38] {Les} pithy little tao thought for the day
[10:40] {dino} bucy sm l .12
[10:41] {ese} vad correct me if i'm wrong......the longer the stock hangs in a range the stronger the breakout correct....
[10:41] {jfjf64} left us
[10:41] {Threei} well, to certain degree
[10:41] {Threei} after some moment it becomes to long, and is likely to fizzle out
[10:41] {ese} can't recall what you said in your book
[10:41] {Threei} psychology under this phenomenon is:
[10:42] {Threei} some of folks waiing for a break get tired
[10:42] {ese} hmmmm like right now as i look back at the chart
[10:42] {Les} miners tankning
[10:42] {Threei} and use it as a chance to exit not waiting for a run
[10:42] {dino} rino sm l .30
[10:42] {ese} tks
[10:43] {Les} you quitting us in our hour of need?
[10:43] {nemo} grow a set will ya'?
[10:44] {ese} yaaaaa what les said
[10:44] {Threei} 09:20] {Threei} guys, my overnight attempts to save harddrive gave no result, so will have to replace it
[10:44] {Threei} [09:20] {Threei} thankfully, full backup is in place
[10:44] {Threei} [09:21] {Threei} will have to leave for a few hours at around 11 am
[10:44] {Threei} [09:21] {Threei} and if everything goes as planned, will be back before close
[10:44] {ese} it's our darkest hour!!!!!
[10:44] {Les} christ vad didn't leave you in charge did he nemo?
[10:44] {ese} no wait a minute.....thats was Churchill
[10:44] {nemo} nop3
[10:45] {nemo} nope
[10:45] {nemo} I'm the court jester
[10:45] {nemo} dino's the man
[10:45] {Les} tenacious market. don't wanna give up
[10:46] {Les} stopped out last quarter FAZ .55
[10:46] {ese} i'll say
[10:49] {Threei} (GR) Economist Paul Krugman: see a 50/50 chance that Greece will leave Eurozone (related EUR/USD )
[10:49] {ese} whip saw city Les
[10:49] {dino} funny i see 50/50 chance they won't leave
[10:49] {nemo} Keynsian Asshole
[10:49] {dino} esi sm l .00
[10:49] {nemo} keynesian
[10:50] {ese} right after they get bailout money ....and then they don't have to pay it back.......
[10:50] {Threei} I see 100% chance there will be nothing left to leave
[10:50] {Threei} Hearing Goldman Sachs raises forecast for US Non-farm Payrolls to 600K from 500K
[10:50] {Threei} - Note: consensus expectation is currently 520Ke
[10:50] {ese} get get your own Greek island for free
[10:51] {Threei} so, GS took a hint from president or the other way around?
[10:51] {Les} hmmm or its a trap
[10:51] {Threei} yeah ese, only you will have to shoot your way through to get there
[10:51] {magoo} great so expectations are raised so high now, sell the news reaction
[10:53] {dino} bucy stopped again
[10:54] {magoo} read RIMM here vad?
[10:54] {dino} joyg wants open gap imo
[10:54] {Threei} 50/50, either .50 break short or .60 break long