Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Jun 23 2010

We did squeeze a profitable day but with FOMC meeting looming it was boring, with little action. No good chart to show today, pretty standard stuff.

Session Time: Wed Jun 23 00:00:00 2010

[08:47] {Threei}  Euro vs US Dollar (GE) German VDMA head: Current level of EUR/USD is satisfactory; Does NOT want a weak Euro
[08:47] {Threei}  - China's Yuan currency revaluation is very positive development.
[08:47] {Threei}  - Reiterates view that there is no risk of credit crunch in Germany.
[08:48] {Les} Good morning. why wouldn't Germany want a weak euro?
[08:49] {nemo} lying
[08:49] {Les} Too many don't want to see a strong dollar right now?
[08:50] {Threei}  they've no idea what they want and don't want
[08:50] {Threei}  this whole thing is too complicated to comprehend
[08:50] {Les} oh. well that's explains a lot
[08:51] {Threei}  no one really understands all the consequences of various developmments
[08:51] {Threei}  just look at the record of majority forecasters over last, say, 3 years
[08:51] {Threei}  in both matket and economy
[08:52] {Les} yeh I guess Europe wasn't front page news 3 years ago
[08:52] {Threei}  people want to hold some of their favorite gurus dear, so they overlook their disastrous record
[08:53] {Les} did you read that Mauldin link?
[08:53] {Threei}  there is one highly regarded commodities guru for instance,
[08:53] {Threei}  who is widely credited with being exceptionally prophetic
[08:53] {Threei}  Well, if you look closely, what you see is:
[08:53] {Threei}  he is exceptionally intelligent and knowledgeable
[08:54] {Threei}  writes very eloquently
[08:54] {Threei}  but his actual record over those few years I wacthed was absolutely miserable,
[08:54] {Threei}  particularly, I remember vividly call on livestock prices
[08:55] {Threei}  where he proved and explained with amazing clarity and convincing detal
[08:55] {Threei}  why those prices were to skyrocket
[08:55] {Threei}  well... they crashed,
[08:55] {Threei}  bounced a little,
[08:55] {Threei}  crashed again,
[08:55] {Threei}  strabilized
[08:55] {Threei}  and never went anywhere
[08:56] {Threei}  yet, all the components he described as reasions for imminent rise were in place
[08:56] {Threei}  crowd of fans totally forgot that call, and many others like this
[08:56] {Threei}  but eloquence is still there, so they are happy
[08:58] {Les} that's what I like about you as guru vad
[08:58] {Threei}  So... don't expect any of these folks to really understand what's happening and express it in their soundbites
[08:58] {Les} no elequence
[08:58] {Les} just  the beef :)
[08:58] {Threei}  umm... thank you, I guess {G}
[08:58] {Threei}  they simply reflect political expediency of the moment
[08:59] {Threei}  even the practical and direct ones often simply lose the vision of the big picture, beoing submerged in minutae analysis
[08:59] {Threei}  great example form the article I was sent today,
[09:00] {Threei}  where authr discusses how an individual trader should survive in HFT era
[09:00] {Threei}  after much trhis and that, he says:
[09:01] {Threei}  In order for traders to succeed in a highly quant-driven tape they must develop a feel for the overall market and understand the ebb and flow of particular stocks and markets.
[09:01] {Threei}  ...there are two particular daily activities I believe traders can do to help significantly shorten the learning curve. First, follow prices. Making a purposeful effort to memorize prices will allow you to contextualize any movement over time. This includes internalizing charts in order to know the history of prices. Second, read read read. The only way to understand the prevailing psychology is to gauge price reactions against headlines.
[09:01] {Threei}  does it sound familiar to you?
[09:02] {Les} hmmm
[09:02] {nemo} wow, people sending you email....
[09:02] {Les} Ritholz?
[09:02] {Threei}  internalize charts, understand patterns, compare price vs headlines
[09:02] {Threei}  isn't it what I teach for many years now?
[09:02] {Threei}  my point is,
[09:02] {Les} yeh yeh sure it is
[09:02] {Threei}  this is what worked ALWAYS
[09:02] {Threei}  it has absolutrely nothing to do with HFT
[09:03] {Threei}  it's not something that arose as the way to trade in HFT era
[09:03] {Threei}  so, yes, he is right in describing what to do,
[09:03] {Threei}  but he attributes it to something irrelevant
[09:04] {Threei}  If I were to write about this, my way to frame it would be:
[09:04] {Threei}  this worked before HFT,
[09:04] {Threei}  this wrks during HFT,
[09:04] {Threei}  this will work after HFT.
[09:04] {Threei}  This is Eternal Law
[09:04] {Les} well happily not too many catch on to this
[09:04] {Threei}  it doesn't matter
[09:05] {Threei}  I teach it for years,
[09:05] {Threei}  I wrote books and numerous articles about this,
[09:05] {Threei}  and on top of it all, I am alone
[09:05] {Threei}  nor first to write about this
[09:05] {Threei}  and? :)
[09:06] {Threei}  % of thise who take it to heart,
[09:06] {Threei}  internalize it,
[09:06] {Threei}  and apply it in practice
[09:06] {Threei}  simply doesn't change
[09:06] {Threei}  Think of it this way:
[09:07] {dptl} good morning
[09:07] {Threei}  a lot of my understanbd was derived from, for instance, Reminiscences
[09:07] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:07] {Threei}  understanding that was
[09:08] {Threei}  adn a few other books I read over time
[09:08] {Threei}  was any of them a secret one?
[09:08] {Threei}  weren't they available to anyone?
[09:08] {Threei}  Reminiscenses particularly, louded as the most popular trading book ever
[09:09] {Threei}  while it influenced this or that individual,
[09:09] {Threei}  did it significantly change to % of those who understand market?
[09:10] {hawk} good morning
[09:10] {Les} from what the NYT would tell us, no...
[09:10] {Threei}  hawk :)
[09:10] {Threei}  Euro vs US Dollar (FR) Dealers reviving rumors of potential sovereign action against France
[09:10] {Threei}  - Today's rumor suggests that Fitch to lower outlok on France to "Watch negative'
[09:10] {Threei}  *** Insight: On May 31st France budget minister Baroin commented in the weekend TV interview that France must carry our planned spending cuts to maintain Sovereign "AAA" rating
[09:10] {Threei}  ***Reminder: On May 14th Fitch affirmed no change has been made to the France debt rating at AAA; stable outlook following rumors during that session.
[09:11] {RonS} The ostensible father of artificial intelligence, Herbert A. Simon, stated that a minimum of 1 million patterns need to be internalized before you become proficient, in, for instance chess.  Further, he said that 2 million are needed to become a master.  Typically this takes ten years.
[09:12] {Threei}  I don't know where he got those exact numbers... but the idea is right
[09:12] {Threei}  that same author continues:
[09:12] {Threei}  In general traders need to understand trend and volatility.
[09:12] {Threei}  no comment
[09:12] {RonS} oh, and gm all :)
[09:12] {Threei}  ron :)
[09:12] {magoo} hey
[09:12] {Threei}  mags :)
[09:13] {Threei}  I can quote all right sentences from there,
[09:13] {Threei}  and each of them will make sense in any year or context
[09:13] {Threei}  with no relation to the topic it all framed in, HFT
[09:14] {Threei}  Volatility is absolutely crucial in predicting the possible reward scenarios.
[09:14] {Threei}  yeah
[09:14] {Threei}  While reward is measured in a pure dollar or percentage sense, traders must also appraise the probability of that reward coming to fruition.
[09:14] {Threei}  sure
[09:14] {Les} you got the link there?
[09:14] {Threei}  Lower volatility times yield lower returns and therefore require tighter stops.
[09:14] {Threei}  ummm
[09:14] {Threei}  no
[09:15] {RonS} amen, and pass the potatoes
[09:15] {Threei}  last:
[09:15] {Threei}  Trading plans must be arranged well before the stock hits the buy or sell points.
[09:15] {dino} gm all
[09:15] {Threei}  I mean, I don't want to put the author down, he says right things
[09:16] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:16] {ese} morning
[09:16] {Threei}  but the point is, it was always the right way to approach the market
[09:16] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:16] {Threei}  why tie it into HFT context and sell it as "new way to survive in today's environment"?
[09:17] {Les} cause it sells I guess
[09:17] {Threei}  either that,
[09:17] {ese} how was everyone yesterday......had an exam yesterday to supervise
[09:17] {ese} gonna test you all next
[09:17] {Threei}  or he simply doesn't notice that he made a full loop
[09:17] {dino} decent day es
[09:17] {Threei}  in his attempt to ponder how to adjust to "new world"
[09:18] {RonS} writing is one thing, doing by illustration in real time, which you do 3i, is exceptional.  Thanks for that, and let's get to work.  :D
[09:18] {dino} agree ron
[09:18] {dino} if you can't do it, teach/write it
[09:18] {Threei}  ok ok Ron, I got the hint {G}
[09:19] {Threei}  but you all who joined later and don't see whole discussion, make sure to read it in trading log later
[09:19] {ese} what book are you reffering too
[09:19] {Les} TZA just popped over 7. market says down
[09:19] {Threei}  not a book ese
[09:19] {Threei}  long story, look trading log after market
[09:19] {nemo} so, basically the article boils down to "Plu cest  change, plu cest le meme chose"
[09:20] {shorty} morning
[09:20] {nemo} time for the Grey Goose
[09:20] {Threei}  shorty :)
[09:20] {RonS} sacre blue
[09:20] {Threei}  yes nemo, without author realizing it :)
[09:21] {nemo} mmmhhh spy retraced to the close
[09:23] {larisa} gm:)
[09:24] {lasertrev} morning
[09:25] {Threei}  larisa, trev :)
[09:26] {Threei}  G-20 related arrest made in Toronto
[09:26] {shorty} The RBC bombing?
[09:26] {RonS} which one?
[09:26] {Threei}  no, new one
[09:26] {Threei}  today
[09:27] {RonS} which one, of the G20?...they should all be arrested
[09:27] {Threei}  rofl
[09:28] {Les} hehehe good one
[09:28] {Threei}  remember, FOMC today
[09:29] {RonS} ya, and new housing sales at top of hour...
[09:30] {jfjf64} mornin
[09:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  BP  .10 break
[09:31] {Threei}  if stays above 30
[09:31] {Threei}  two-sided setup
[09:32] {magoo} rather find bottom in my o
[09:32] {magoo} or break out
[09:33] {Les} l tza .01 stop under .95
[09:33] {Les} 1:1
[09:33] {Les} half out
[09:34] {ese} L fitb .55
[09:34] {Les} 1/4 more .10
[09:35] {magoo} ADBE smoked vad
[09:35] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  on pullback to .30
[09:35] {Les} last quarter stopped flat
[09:36] {ese} out fitb .74 +.19
[09:37] {dino} hl l ful .80
[09:37] {dino} well that entry sucked
[09:37] {dino} stop is .49
[09:37] {Threei}  LVS, want dive under .30, for bounce hunt
[09:38] {Threei}  BP 1:1, half out
[09:38] {Les} bp covered +.09 ty
[09:38] {shorty} out bp
[09:38] {Threei}  too gast LVS
[09:38] {Threei}  fast
[09:38] {Threei}  or was distracted by BP at the moment...
[09:38] {dino} stopped
[09:38] {Les} in and out lvs ty
[09:39] {Les} +.09
[09:39] {Threei}  :)
[09:39] {Les} SHOW ME THE MONEY!
[09:39] {Threei}  argh
[09:39] {Les} sorry
06[09:39] * Threei slaps Les around a bit with a large roll of cash
[09:39] {Threei}  here it is
[09:39] {nemo} here's what?
[09:39] {jfjf64} slap  me TOO$$$$$$
[09:39] {Threei}  my argh was about me missing entry, lol
[09:40] {nemo} oh, thought it was your pirate impression
[09:40] {magoo} ADBE bounce read vad?
[09:40] {Threei}  no, that I do only in the middle of second vodka bottle
[09:40] {jfjf64} +24 CENTS   TY
[09:40] {Threei}  wtg jf
[09:40] {Threei}  and...
06[09:40] * Threei slaps jfjf64 around a bit with a large roll of cash
[09:41] {Threei}  not yet mags
[09:41] {Threei}  IMO, goes lower
[09:41] {jfjf64} uso  short
[09:41] {nemo} watch for bounce at .30 mags
[09:42] {magoo} good read
[09:43] {dino} ful hyl l .00
[09:46] {jfjf64} when  ya  get  chance  pls  explain lvs   thought  process
[09:47] {jfjf64} i took it
[09:47] {jfjf64} ty
[09:47] {Threei}  thought? you are flattering me
[09:48] {magoo} how u hold the dart vad
[09:48] {jfjf64} hard for  me  to  see set up
[09:48] {nemo} hah, recross .30 woulda' worked on ADBE
[09:48] {jfjf64} .30   from  yest
[09:48] {Threei}  jf, simple double bottom, exaggerated by opening volatility
[09:49] {Threei}  SQNM Hearing strength attributed to presentation by Doctors on positive feedback on certain tests (6.16, +0.20, 3.36%)
[09:49] {nemo} yeah, simple
[09:50] {jfjf64} thanks  nemo  for  ya  2 cents
[09:51] {nemo} PCX vad?
[09:51] {magoo} q server please vad
[09:51] {magoo} stuck quotes
[09:51] {Threei}  6
[09:51] {magoo} ty
[09:51] {Threei}  PCX looks double-toppish to me
[09:51] {nemo} my thinking
[09:52] {nemo} support at .65
[09:52] {Threei}  can turn into break if market strenghens but I'd not play it
[09:52] {Threei}  reversal, I would
[09:52] {nemo} yes, short
[09:52] {Threei}  13.80 break
[09:52] {nemo} I was thinking .85 myself
[09:52] {nemo} oh, damn...thinking again
[09:52] {Threei}  could be, but need a little more consolidation
[09:53] {magoo} news AAPL vad?
[09:53] {Threei}  just couple more moves up and down,
[09:53] {Threei}  between .85 and high
[09:53] {Threei}  not fresh
[09:53] {Threei}  00:47 AAPL WSJ Mossberg is positive on iPhone4
[09:53] {Threei}  - Says the device is a "major leap" over the iPhone 3GS
[09:53] {RonS} aapl losing it...
[09:54] {Threei} Short Setup: PCX  .85 break
[09:55] {nemo} numbers in 5
[09:57] {nemo} do we want out of this before the numbers?
[09:57] {Threei}  maybe half?
[09:57] {Threei}  to be prudent
[09:57] {nemo} Well, me chicken
[09:57] {nemo} out .79
[09:58] {nemo} pucker factor got to me
[09:58] {nemo} stop 2nd half
[09:58] {Threei}  well... it proved you right
[09:59] {dino} fcx sm l .25
[09:59] {nemo} mmmmhhh...I have a long term support resistance line in at .10 on PCX
[09:59] {nemo} wonder when I put that there
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) MAY NEW HOME SALES: 300K V 410KE
[10:00] {nemo} ow
[10:00] {dino} out ful .79, +.70
[10:00] {Threei}  (-33% M/M)
[10:00] {Les} tza for +.05 on the news
[10:00] {Les} sold too early
[10:00] {Threei}  LVS
[10:00] {Threei}  bounce time very soon
[10:00] {nemo} frickin pcx
[10:01] {nemo} did you mean short on FCX dino
[10:01] {nemo} ?
[10:01] {Threei}  - Prior revised lower from 504K to 446K
[10:01] {Threei}  - Median price $200.9K v $K in April (revised from $198.4K), $222.3K y/y (% m/m; -9.6% y/y)
[10:01] {Threei}  - Months supply: 8.5 v 5.06 in April
[10:01] {Threei}  - Homes for sale: 213K v 211K in April
[10:01] {dino} unfortunately no, dumb move should've waited forgot #s
[10:03] {Threei}  EUR/USD Risk aversion flows increase following 'poor' US New Homes data
[10:04] {dino} fxe at lod tho
[10:04] {Threei}  LVS bounce hunt is on
[10:04] {RonS} eur/jpy lost 110.0...113.0 on Monday
[10:05] {Threei}  missed .21 LVS while typed, LOL
[10:05] {Threei}  anyone got it?
[10:05] {magoo} l lvs .28
[10:05] {RonS} Les, mkove to $ and Yen = risk aversion
[10:06] {magoo} crap
[10:06] {Threei}  wow
[10:06] {Threei}  .28??
[10:06] {RonS} ?
[10:06] {magoo} went after first strendghth
[10:06] {Les} I am short pcx .89
[10:07] {Threei}  yes, but way too far from bottom
[10:07] {RonS} aapl -5.50
[10:07] {Les} dunno why $ = strength with crappy housing Ron, but i getcha
[10:07] {bellowsbunch} bidu?
[10:07] {nemo} Euro weakness Les
[10:07] {Les} yeh crappy alternative
[10:07] {Threei}  bellows, you trade anything else?
[10:08] {nemo} might get bounce on BIDU here Bellows
[10:08] {Threei}  why pick such volatile stock at such volatile moment
[10:08] {nemo} nope
[10:08] {dino} s/p gap 1089 filled from 6/14
[10:08] {Threei}  risk is impossible to control on it right now
[10:08] {bellowsbunch} im just watching it. chill
[10:08] {nemo} he's on prozac?
[10:08] {Threei}  chill?
[10:08] {Les} lol
[10:08] {Les} cover pcx +.09
[10:09] {bellowsbunch} whats the play on lvs
[10:10] {Threei}  long on pullback to between .10 and .15
[10:10] {magoo} i have to say..hope no pllbk:)
[10:10] {nemo} fcx
[10:11] {Threei}  if no pullback, no new play for now
[10:11] {nemo} FCX l break .10 stop
[10:11] {nemo} .95
[10:11] {dino} in
[10:11] {Threei}  WAVX UPDATE: MDB Capital Group Initiates WAVX with Buy, price target: $6
[10:12] {nemo} frig .02 away from 1:1
[10:12] {Threei}  get out LVS mags
[10:12] {dino} ful hl l .48
[10:12] {dino} nemo, v?
[10:13] {dino} break of .50 think
[10:13] {nemo} volatile one
[10:13] {nemo} I'd want to see it hold .50 a bit
[10:13] {nemo} volume drops
[10:13] {RonS} dino, cstr is pretty strong considering
[10:13] {nemo} 1:1 fcx
[10:14] {dino} merriman, buy
[10:14] {Threei}  BIDU, watch for dive under .50 for long entry
[10:14] {nemo} chill vad
[10:14] {nemo} 1:2 fcx
[10:14] {RonS} vodka on ice?
[10:15] {jfjf64} nice nemo
[10:15] {nemo} stop to 23 fcx
[10:15] {nemo} .23
[10:15] {dino} ugh v
[10:15] {nemo} yeah, sorry Dino, volatility scared me
[10:15] {nemo} needed a .50 stop
[10:15] {Threei}  BIDU recross,
[10:15] {Threei}  stop under .25
[10:16] {Threei}  so smallish shares
[10:16] {dino} would work w/300
[10:16] {nemo} for you, apologies
[10:16] {nemo} stopped fcx
[10:17] {Threei}  in .47
[10:17] {dino} no worries dude
[10:17] {dino} i am responsible for my inaction
[10:17] {Threei}  lol
[10:17] {nemo} is that wu or wei?
[10:17] {Threei}  Preview: DOE (EIA) Petroleum Inventories due at 10:30ET
[10:17] {Threei}  **consensus expectations:
[10:17] {Threei}  Crude: -1Me
[10:17] {Threei}  Gasoline: +250Ke
[10:17] {Threei}  Distillate: +1.4Me
[10:18] {Threei}  BIDU 1:1 roughly
[10:19] {Les} ty out
[10:19] {jfjf64} ditto
[10:19] {jfjf64} t
[10:19] {Les} I love the smell of volatility in the morning
[10:19] {nemo} Dino V back
[10:19] {jfjf64} y
[10:19] {nemo} smells like napalm
[10:19] {ese} my trading broker is down  questrade.......anybody else
[10:20] {nemo} must be that virus I sent you
[10:20] {ese} lol
[10:20] {jfjf64} dont  mes  with  nemo  today
[10:21] {nemo} what makes today different :)?
[10:21] {ese} appears that way........who peed in your cornflakes this morning nemo?
[10:21] {jfjf64} lol
[10:21] {Threei}  what a visual
[10:21] {Threei}  you guys in rare shape today, lol
[10:21] {jfjf64} exacyly
[10:22] {Threei}  you need quotes for something ese?
[10:23] {jfjf64} one  more  W so i cd  go  watch  soccor
[10:23] {ese} no ...tks
[10:24] {ese} was watching fitb but i can wait
[10:24] {Threei}  .45 x .46
[10:24] {ese} will tune into world cup and watch Eng and Slovenia
[10:27] {dino} so can heaven ese
[10:27] {jfjf64} me too
[10:27] {jfjf64} after  i short  pcx
[10:27] {jfjf64} lol
[10:28] {dino} v sm l .50
[10:28] {nemo} pcx should have trouble between .10-16
[10:28] {magoo} anyones laser quotes sticking?
[10:28] {nemo} nice C&H reak at 14 though
[10:28] {jfjf64} thought it  wd  hv problem.02
[10:29] {Les} charts are
[10:29] {Les} sticking
[10:29] {magoo} les, u east ?coast
[10:29] {lasertrev} magoo, quoteserver 13 is good
[10:29] {Les} yeh mags
[10:30] {magoo} ok ty trev
[10:30] {Threei}  *DOE CRUDE: +2.01M V -1ME; GASOLINE: -760K V +250KE; DISTILLATE: +300K V +1.4ME; UTILIZATION: 89.4% V 88.2%E
[10:30] {Threei}  wow RIG
[10:31] {Threei}  btw, for all those loonie promoters yesterday: nyanya nyanyanya
[10:31] {dptl} lol
[10:32] {dino} itri sm l .80
[10:32] {dino} your looney
[10:32] {ese} too funny
[10:32] {RonS} loonie tunes...daffie duck
[10:33] {RonS} daffie = daffy
[10:33] {dino} wabbits
[10:33] {magoo} looking for rip in BP...l .06
[10:33] {magoo} .90 area thought
[10:33] {Les} wow pcx on the rampage
[10:34] {Les}
[10:34] {magoo} stop is .94 bp
[10:35] {Les} something to read during quiet moment
[10:37] {nemo} still in FCX dino
[10:37] {dino} y
[10:38] {dino} \sm
[10:38] {nemo} yes
[10:38] {dino} jumpy today, back to 3s
[10:42] {nemo} wonder if we'll be relatively quiet until fomc
[10:44] {ese} L fitb .51
[10:44] {magoo} my target BP is way too optimistic the way its acting, better to scalp it
[10:45] {nemo} whoa, fcx better than 1:3
[10:45] {nemo} although, I wussed out
[10:45] {Threei}  mags, FOMC day...
[10:46] {nemo} 1:4
[10:46] {magoo} yea vad...i was looking for a bounce with RIG...didnt develope
[10:47] {nemo} that .75 level has me concerned Dino
[10:47] {dino} me too
[10:47] {dino} too many open, plus have to leave in 10, for hour
[10:48] {ese} out fitb .60 +.09
[10:49] {dino} out .60, +.50 fcx, ty nemo
[10:49] {nemo} I owe you for V
[10:49] {dino} out itri .25, +.45
[10:49] {ese} nice dino....was that sm shs or full lot
[10:49] {dino} sm
[10:49] {ese} fcx
[10:49] {dino} were even, btw
[10:50] {dino} :D
[10:50] {ese} nice
[10:50] {dino} fcx sm too
[10:52] {RonS} rimm, blocks of July 75 calls are going off near the offer...28000 so far w/ OI at 4500
[10:53] {RonS} earnings tomorrow i think
[10:55] {magoo} LVS launched
[10:57] {dino} mkts calming down
[10:58] {Threei}  US House and Senate agree to remove provision for resolution authority fund as part of FINREG
[10:58] {Threei}  - Note: Previous arguments against the fund (which called for financial companies to prepay in case of failure) surrounded possible moral hazard and potential for increased risk taking
[10:58] {Threei}  I agree with those arguments
[10:58] {Threei}  so what is it that they removed?
[11:01] {jfjf64} vz  triple bott
[11:11] {dino} cstr dropping
[11:11] {dino} have to leave for hour. stops in
[11:14] {magoo} RIG pllbk vad
[11:15] {magoo} ADBE lows
[11:18] {Threei}  ADBE maybe getting ready
[11:18] {Threei} Long Setup:  ADBE  .80 break
[11:19] {Threei}  stop under .70
[11:20] {Threei}  GR) Greece's IMF representative notes will discuss 2nd tranche of Greek aid at Sept 10 meeting
[11:20] {Threei}  - Highlights that there is no alternative to the EU-IMF plan other than exiting the EuroZone
[11:20] {magoo} in
[11:21] {shorty} same
[11:23] {magoo} thinkin .07 area
[11:28] {Threei}  BP (US) US Interior Dept Chief Salazar: BP could eventually be capturing 60-80bpd from the leaking well
[11:28] {Threei}  out of 15 that leaks out, right?
[11:29] {Threei}  USD/CNY (FR) France Official: There are no specific plans to discuss the Yuan at the G-20 meeting this weekend
[11:29] {Threei}  no? why do you even gather?
[11:29] {shorty} for tea
[11:30] {Threei}  for Canada to waste 1B on hosting?
[11:30] {RonS} really?
[11:30] {shorty} yup
[11:30] {Threei}  1.2 to be exact
[11:30] {RonS} unreal
[11:30] {Threei}  on both summits back to back, G8 and G20
[11:31] {magoo} was ADBE news bad?
[11:31] {RonS} no
[11:31] {Threei}  major part beiing security spending
[11:31] {magoo} donkey
[11:31] {RonS} ?
[11:32] {magoo} down 2 bux
[11:32] {Les} its backdoor stimulus vad
[11:33] {Threei}  it's so backdoor, it redefines the very concept of a door
[11:33] {RonS} especially in San Francisco
[11:34] {Threei}  I'll pretend I haven't seen this, OK?
[11:34] {RonS} lol
[11:34] {Threei}  :)
[11:35] {hawk} ADBE earnings mags, soft guidance i think
[11:37] {magoo} thanx cant even bounce
[11:38] {Threei}  it was almost at 1:1 twice, and we are moving closer and closer to FOMC
[11:38] {magoo} vad, c'mon
[11:38] {dino} back
[11:38] {magoo} 2,50 off top
[11:38] {magoo} .07 cent bounce???
[11:38] {Threei}  I am explaining why it has so little activity
[11:39] {Threei}  despite big drop
[11:39] {Threei}  what is it today, abuse vad day?
[11:39] {magoo} im the one who originally mentioned just now saying it really is weak
[11:39] {Threei}  one tellls me to chill
[11:39] {Threei}  two actually
[11:39] {Threei}  another c'mons me
[11:40] {hawk} lol
06[11:40] * Threei removes himself to a monastery
06[11:40] * Threei removes himself to a Tibet monastery
06[11:40] * Threei removes himself to a Tibet monastery to ponder the meaning of life
06[11:40] * Threei removes himself to an all-female Tibet monastery to ponder the meaning of life
[11:41] {RonS} that's the ticket...
[11:41] {Threei}  yeah, I was narrowing down to it
[11:41] {larisa} it is too cold there, you will be too chilled to be interested in women
[11:41] {Threei}  I think it works just the opposite
[11:42] {dino} miss anything?
[11:42] {larisa} all women covered with 3 inches of ice.. it so does not
[11:42] {Threei}  no dino, action stalled
[11:42] {Les} what larisa?
[11:42] {Les} I was thinking harem with bed full of women on cold day
[11:42] {Threei}  makes things interesting larisa... warm up the snow queen, you know
[11:43] {Les} stop ruining male fantasies
[11:43] {larisa} chill
[11:46] {magoo} imagine tibet winter fest wet t shirt contest
[11:47] {dino} roflol
[11:47] {Threei}  don't... my vivid imagination makes it almost unbearable
[11:47] {Les} hmmm
[11:51] {larisa}
[11:51] {larisa} Realm of Hungry Ghosts from Kalachakra or Wheel Of Time mural painting
[11:51] {larisa} to help you with your imagination
[11:52] {Les} s pcx .14
[11:53] {larisa} so better stick with us vad :)
[11:53] {Threei}  oh god
[11:53] {Threei}  why, why did you do this to me
[11:57] {nemo} sins of past lives
[11:58] {nemo} frickin' typical FOMC day
[11:59] {nemo} might be getting an IH&S on ADBE
[11:59] {nemo} lunchtime of course
[12:07] {nemo} ADBE
[12:07] {Les} pcx stopped .21
[12:08] {Les} outta here. got exam in the morning. c u's tomorrow
[12:09] {Threei}  take care les
[12:10] {nemo} how far will ADBE go?
[12:13] {magoo} could see 31.20 arrea
[12:14] {nemo} yeah, just hit 1:1
[12:17] {Threei}  BP Comments that oil collection temporarily stopped due to gas detected in one of the collection ships
[12:20] {magoo} any interest in RIG vad
[12:20] {nemo} bull flag PCX?
[12:23] {Threei}  RIG, I'd look for long on pullback to .60
[12:24] {dino} out v .84, +.34
[12:26] {nemo} dino, that was the fcx bottom
[12:26] {dino} yes, good hit
[12:27] {nemo} in adbe .70
[12:29] {dino} ugh v
[12:29] {dino} too chicken
[12:36] {nemo} stopped 2nd half adbe
[12:46] {nemo} adbe 2nd half rinse
[12:46] {magoo} mkts moving
[12:48] {ese} L fitb .52
[12:56] {dino} pgp spike
[13:04] {magoo} .
[13:10] {RonS} 5 yr auction not so good?
[13:10] {magoo} wicked spike BP
[13:10] {Threei}  (CH) Commerce Sec Locke: Concerned China's commercial direction is bad for US companies; will monitor China's moves on Yuan currency - prepared comments
[13:10] {Threei}  - Notes what is key is how far and fast China will move with regards to its currency
[13:10] {Threei}  - Currently evaluating whether the currency policy is considered a subsidy for trade (in line with prior comments)
[13:11] {RonS} US unveils more flexible oil drilling moratorium       06/23 11:08 AM
[13:11] {RonS} US Coast Guard: Snag Could Delay BP's Oil Collection Ramp-Up       06/23 11:11 AM
[13:12] {Threei}  - indirect bidders take 34.56% of competitive bids with 18.36% allotted at the high.
[13:12] {Threei}  - direct bidders take 10.68%, primary dealers 54.76%.
[13:12] {Threei}  - median 1.925%, low 1.8%.
[13:19] {RonS} hearing McChrystal got the boot...
[13:21] {Threei}  yes
[13:28] {RonS} O on TV in 1 minute
[13:29] {RonS} ...what do we short?...
[13:31] {RonS} ...must have scared him of w/ that q...
[13:31] {Threei}  lol
[13:32] {shorty} lol
[13:33] {dino} zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz\
[13:33] {Threei}  CNN says "any moment"
[13:34] {RonS} ...can a day go by without seeing this guy?
[13:35] {RonS} ...makes you pine for "silent Cal".
[13:35] {Threei}  in (lime)light of last year and half, I take it as a rhetorical question
[13:37] {Threei}  (US) Preview: FOMC rate decision and statement due out around 14:15ET
[13:37] {Threei}  **Expectations are for the rate to remain unchanged at 0.25% with some minor revisions to the statement to reflect recent deterioration of data (including today's weak New Home Sales data) and the economic uncertainty that persists globally, particularly in Europe. Given the environment, the FOMC is unlikely to revise the "extended period" language at this meeting. Hoenig is expected to continue his dissent against the extended period language and may further elaborate on his stance in the statement.
[13:38] {Threei} Long Setup:  BP  .10 break
[13:38] {Threei}  if stays above 30
[13:40] {RonS} US House Panel Votes To Issue Subpoenas To BP For Claims Process Documents       06/23 11:38 AM
[13:42] {dino} fcx flat wow
[13:43] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIG  53 break
[13:43] {Threei}  if stays above .90
[13:43] {Threei}  ron, quick
[13:43] {Threei}  watch TV
[13:43] {Threei}  lest you miss any word
[13:47] {Threei}  RIG will be valid again in a min
[13:47] {Threei}  if holding .90 this time
[13:47] {dino} i think we just had a tremor
[13:47] {Threei}  BP, I doubt it
[13:47] {Threei}  seriously dino?
[13:48] {dino} \yeah, my desk and magoos' were just swaying
[13:48] {RonS} US House Panel Passes Oil-Spill Liability Bill       06/23 11:31 AM
[13:48] {RonS} WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--A U.S. House panel approved legislation Wednesday that would repeal a century-and-a-half-old law that Transocean Ltd. (RIG:$52.9500,$0.4600,0.88%) has sought to use to limit its liability in the Gulf oil-spill disaster.
[13:48] {RonS} The bill would apply to both pending and future cases. The House Judiciary Committee passed the bill on a 16-11 vote, sending the measure to the full House for consideration.
[13:49] {Threei}  pending eh
[13:51] {dino} i understand the frustratrion, but going back in time should not be allowed, sets bad precedent
[13:52] {Threei}  bad is understatement
[13:52] {Threei}  it's a destruction of the foundation of law-obiding society
[13:52] {dino} kills rule of law
[13:53] {shorty} Earth quake in Toronto
[13:53] {magoo} we really had one
[13:53] {shorty} Earthquake
[13:53] {Threei}  you must be able to rely on law as it's stated at the moment in question
[13:53] {magoo} so big upset my balance
[13:53] {dino} it felt like it
[13:53] {Threei}  RIG 1:1
[13:53] {magoo} in rig btw
[13:53] {nemo} so, since it's been a positive day since this morning, do we tank after the fomc
[13:54] {RonS} you reading the same indices as me?
[13:54] {magoo} been red all morn
[13:54] {nemo} since 10:30 it's been moving up
[13:55] {Threei}  you guys... don't you know to make a correction to "nemo's world"?
[13:55] {nemo} so might not be green, but movement has been positive
[13:55] {Threei}  finding nemo so to speak
[13:55] {nemo} gag
[13:56] {RonS} ...his is a George Jefferson world...
[13:56] {nemo} o.k. weezie
[13:57] {RonS} ...Lennie Kravitz's mother...
[13:57] {nemo} no
[13:57] {Threei}  mags, don't oversit RIG, we are closing in on FOMC time
[13:57] {nemo} Lennie's mother was the black woman married to the white guy in the show
[13:58] {dino} moving on up...
[13:58] {RonS} I know...she said when she went to the audition, they aked her if she would be comfortable i that role.  She told them that she had be married to a white guy for more than ten years, so she hoped so...
[13:59] {Threei}  the scariest part of my day today:
[13:59] {Threei}  I acrually know what nemo means and am agree with him
[14:00] {Threei}  -am
[14:00] {nemo} ?
[14:00] {RonS} many, many times the kneejerk reaction, reverses
[14:00] {Threei}  never mind... I know you already forgot what you said 3 min ago
[14:00] {larisa} [13:55] {nemo} so might not be green, but movement has been positive
[14:00] {larisa} this one?
[14:00] {Threei}  yes, that
[14:00] {nemo} :)
[14:01] {nemo} yeah, had I stayed in FCX...oy vay
[14:01] {Threei}  wipe that smirk off your face, will ya... it scares me to death that I understand you and agree wot you {G}
[14:01] {dino} up 100, down to flat, finish up 60
[14:01] {dino} or reverse
[14:02] {dino} or none of the above\
[14:02] {RonS} or not
[14:03] {RonS} ...feerings...:P
[14:04] {magoo} out .17 vad, TY
[14:04] {Threei}  :)
[14:05] {RonS} yes, w/ this reaction off potentially bad news this could run...
[14:05] {magoo} weird mkts pushing up
[14:05] {nemo} duh
[14:05] {RonS} ...i'm talkin dino type change...
[14:06] {dino} big?
[14:07] {Threei}  Apple Inc White iPhone 4 may not be available until latter half of July due to manufacturing issues
[14:07] {Threei}  - White models of Apple's new iPhone4 have proven more challenging to manufacture than expected, and as a result they will not be available until the second half of July. The availability of the more popular iPhone 4 black models is not affected.
[14:07] {RonS} nuts, and that's what i wanted...
[14:09] {RonS} actually, something is wrong with that.  in my experiece in consumer electronics black was always more difficult to produce than white...
[14:10] {RonS} black shows belmishes and defects easier...
[14:10] {RonS} may be different source vendor...
[14:11] {dino} you can have any clor you want as long as its black
[14:11] {RonS} ok henry...
[14:11] {dino} ;)
[14:12] {Threei}  lol
[14:12] {ese} am back.......biked downtown......
[14:13] {Threei}  why??
[14:13] {RonS} living dangerously...
[14:13] {ese} still long fitb i see....stop loss not triggered....i'm good
[14:13] {Threei}  earthquake in Toronto, and you biking carelessly in Victoria
[14:13] {Threei}  shoulds be hunkering down
[14:13] {ese} my high school rhythm and blues band is playing in Centennial square vad
[14:14] {Threei}  today?
[14:14] {ese} went to pick up there performer passes at the Jazz society office
[14:14] {ese} no July 4th  in the afternoon......come on down
[14:15] {ese} day after shiskabob lparty
[14:15] {ese} at your place
[14:15] {Threei}  kidding? I intend to stay drunk for 3 days after that
[14:15] {dino} good boy 3i, glad to see priorities
[14:15] {Threei}  you and the band are welcome to come to my place though
[14:15] {dino} \unchanged
[14:15] {ese} thats possible with the bodka that dp brings
[14:16] {Threei}  lol dino.. if you saw his band, yopu'd know why I invite them over so eagerly :)
[14:16] {ese} hmmmmmmm nahhhhhhh trying to keep up my reputation of abstainer
[14:16] {Threei}  - Vote 9-1 (Hoenig again dissents
[14:17] {Threei}  - Household spending is increasing but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software has risen significantly; however, investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls
[14:17] {Threei}  Housing starts remain at a depressed level. Financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth on balance, largely reflecting developments abroad. Bank lending has continued to contract in recent months.
[14:17] {Threei}  the pace of economic recovery is likely to be moderate for a time.
[14:18] {Threei}  - Underlying inflation has trended lower. With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.
[14:18] {Threei}  5.5 earthquake
[14:18] {RonS} wimpy
[14:19] {Threei}  and they say we are in danger on west coast
[14:19] {Threei}  we'll see who's first
[14:20] {magoo} im telling u,. so big we felt it in pa
[14:22] {magoo} vad, AIG bouncer?
[14:22] {shorty} Apparently, in Calgary we are siting close to one big f'n volcano.
[14:22] {RonS} Yellowstone
[14:22] {Threei}  not yet mags
[14:23] {Threei}  Yellowstone is a so-called supervolcano
[14:23] {shorty} yup RonS
[14:23] {Threei}  if that one goes off...
[14:23] {nemo} caldera
[14:23] {Threei}  we may stop worrying about killing the planet, it will surely kill us first
[14:24] {shorty} Safe to say I might land in Victoria Threei.
[14:24] {RonS} ...will make Krakatoa look like a firecracker
[14:24] {Threei}  pretty much
[14:24] {hawk} as long as it doesn't happen during market hours
[14:25] {Threei}  lol
[14:25] {Threei}  that's devotion
[14:25] {Threei}  let's go over priorities:
[14:25] {Threei}  {dptl} just no tremors while the vodka glass is being inhaled, OK??
[14:26] {dptl} lol
[14:27] {Threei}  {me} hey hey, what's with that crack in the ground my bacon is about to gall into??
[14:27] {RonS} Jesse Livermore made $3 million shorting the Union Pacific big the day before the SF quake.  In 1906 that was kind of a lot of dough.
[14:27] {Threei}  fall
[14:27] {RonS} ...and there were no taxes...
[14:29] {Threei}  AIG,
[14:29] {Threei}  watch for small pullback, holding .40, then break of .50
[14:29] {Threei}  not buying herte
[14:29] {Threei}  pullback first
[14:30] {Threei}  if it's gone, it's gone
[14:31] {Threei}  Fannie Mae Increases Penalties for Borrowers Who Walk Away
[14:31] {Threei}  huh??
[14:31] {Threei}  is there such thing as contract anymore?
[14:31] {magoo} really?
[14:32] {dino} lol, they can't pay so how can they pay more
[14:32] {Threei}  2:22:05 PM
[14:32] {Threei}  Fannie Mae Increases Penalties for Borrowers Who Walk Away
[14:32] {Threei}  - Policy changes designed to encourage borrowers to work with their servicers and pursue alternatives to foreclosure.
[14:32] {Threei}  - Defaulting borrowers who walk-away and had the capacity to pay or did not complete a workout alternative in good faith will be ineligible for a new Fannie Mae-backed mortgage loan for a period of seven years from the date of foreclosure. Borrowers who have extenuating circumstances may be eligible for new loan in a shorter timeframe.
[14:32] {Threei}  - Exec: "Walking away from a mortgage is bad for borrowers and bad for communities and our approach is meant to deter the disturbing trend toward strategic defaulting. On the flip side, borrowers facing hardship who make a good faith effort to resolve their situation with their servicer will preserve the option to be considered for a future Fannie Mae loan in a shorter period of time."
[14:32] {Threei}  - Fannie Mae will also take legal action to recoup the outstanding mortgage debt from borrowers who strategically default on their loans in jurisdictions that allow for deficiency judgments. In an announcement next month, the company will be instructing its servicers to monitor delinquent loans facing foreclosure and put forth recommendations for cases that warrant the pursuit of deficiency judgments.
[14:37] {Threei}  The biggest change to the economy paragraph is "Financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth on balance, largely reflecting developments abroad" (revised from "conditions remain supportive of economic growth."
[14:44] {nemo} oh oh
[14:44] {Threei}  what?
[14:44] {nemo} nuthin'
[14:44] {Threei}  okay
[14:44] {nemo} welll.....
[14:44] {nemo} nah...
[14:45] {dino} wow, no rea reaction at all, dare i say "dull"
[14:45] {Threei}  thought so
[14:45] {Threei}  to what dino?
[14:45] {Threei}  FOMC?
[14:45] {nemo} give the guy a prize
[14:46] {Threei}  AIG, .50 - .60 zone for long entry
[14:46] {RonS} ...took 'em down, bounced them higher, and selling off...plenty of movement
[14:50] {Threei}  finger ion the trigger, AIG
[14:57] {dino} yeah, fomc
[14:58] {RonS} gs acting heavy...
[14:58] {dino} v hl l.75
[15:00] {RonS} bp a dime from lod
[15:01] {nemo} that's interesting
[15:01] {nemo} looks good ron
[15:03] {Threei} Long Setup:  AIG  .60
[15:03] {Threei}  if stays abive .50
[15:04] {Threei} Long Setup:  BP  .65 break
[15:05] {Threei}  US) Reportedly Senators agree on strengthening limits on prop trading by banks and bank holding companies
[15:05] {Threei}  invalidated AIG
[15:05] {Threei}  can form new setup, but a bit lower
[15:06] {Threei}  - Proposal would allow Fed to impose a 15-to-1 leverage limit larger financial institutions
[15:07] {Threei}  for Barney fans:
[15:07] {Threei}  - US Rep Frank may propose a bank financial tax on firms with over $50B in assets as part of FINREG
[15:07] {nemo} Down goes market! Down goes Market!
[15:07] {nemo} I'm hearing Howard Cosell in my head
[15:07] {nemo} that dates me
[15:08] {dino} he dates you
[15:08] {nemo} "that"  you see a pronoun anywhere?
[15:08] {Threei}  BP is valid still
[15:09] {dino} :D
[15:09] {dino} whippy now
[15:10] {nemo} fas might be good long here
[15:10] {nemo} 35 is pivot support
[15:10] {nemo} .35
[15:10] {nemo} lookie lookie
[15:10] {Threei}  wanted AIG under .40... waited too long I guess
[15:11] {magoo} how about RIG?
[15:11] {Threei}  not sure
[15:11] {nemo} bounced off the close at .50
[15:11] {nemo} looks good if you can find an entry
[15:12] {bellowsbunch} bp
[15:14] {Threei}  no go BP
[15:14] {nemo} gotta' go
[15:14] {RonS} cya nemo
[15:15] {nemo} been so peaceful, the I realized Les isn't here
[15:16] {shorty} lol
[15:17] {bellowsbunch} choppy
[15:18] {RonS} sm l adbe .40
[15:19] {dino} cya nemo
[15:19] {bellowsbunch} anything going on
[15:19] {Threei}  HOS Requests along with other oil firms that the US Judge enforce injunction to block the Federal Govt's 6 month moratorium
[15:20] {Threei}  not right now bellows, narrow and choppy
[15:20] {dino} hos, wasn't he on bonanzza
[15:20] {RonS} hos is fighting for its life
[15:20] {Threei}  business at war with govt
[15:29] {dino} what will atlas do?
[15:29] {Threei}  as always
[15:29] {Threei}  shrug
[15:30] {dino} indeed
[15:30] {dino} mr reardon
[15:30] {ese} exam supervision......see ya tomorrow
[15:30] {Threei}  take care ese
[15:30] {dino} cya
[15:30] {shorty} cya ese
[15:30] {RonS} cya ese
[15:30] {ese} cya vad dino
[15:30] {ese} ron
[15:31] {Threei}  with FOMC behind us, tomorrow is hopefully normal trading day
[15:31] {Threei}  whatever normal is these days
[15:33] {magoo} look LTBR vad
[15:33] {Threei}  well
[15:33] {Threei}  you saw ts news?
[15:34] {magoo} no
[15:34] {Threei}  1:06:51 PM
[15:34] {Threei}  Lightbridge, Inc Higher after announcing a new nuclear fuel technology that could increase reactor output by up to 30%
[15:34] {Threei}  - Lightbridge"s new fuel technology based on a proprietary all-metal fuel assembly design could reduce both initial capital costs per megawatt and annual operating costs per kilowatt-hour of nuclear power.It is expected that Lightbridge"s all-metal fuel technology could be applied to currently operating or new light water reactors as well as small modular reactors which provide the same benefits as in larger commercial nuclear power plants. One of the key benefits of the Lightbridge-designed all-metal fuel technology is a potential 30% increase in power output per reactor compared to reactors using standard oxide nuclear fuel. This could translate into additional revenue for a 1,600-MWe light water reactor of up to $250M or more per year, or nearly $16B over a 60-year expected lifetime of such reactors.
[15:34] {Threei}  - This increased power output is expected to lower operating costs on a per kilowatt-hour basis and strengthen the economics of nuclear power versus other forms of power generation. In addition, currently operating light water reactors could also take advantage of this power uprate by switching to Lightbridge"s all-metal fuel design.
[15:34] {Threei}  - The Lightbridge-designed all-metal fuel design would provide enhanced proliferation resistance and result in up to 23% less volume of used fuel per kilowatt-hour of electricity generated and is expected to have improved fuel operation compared to standard oxide fuel.
[15:37] {Threei}  to me, this sounds like short the sucker
[15:37] {Threei}  for multipoint drop
[15:37] {Threei}  risk however is enormous, very thin tradert
[15:38] {magoo} yea..could print 10 too
[15:39] {Threei}  or 7
[15:41] {dino} cyber, none avail
[15:41] {Threei}  none here either
[15:42] {dino} but short was right so far
[15:42] {shorty} cyber dino?
[15:43] {dino} schawb, bgt cybertrader years ago, now cyber st smartpro
[15:43] {dino} direct access
[15:43] {shorty} cool
[15:44] {dino} yes and no. laser better executions, more margin, cyber imo better charts, news
[15:46] {dino} out v .98, +.23
[15:48] {dptl} have a good evening all
[15:49] {RonS} cya dp
[15:49] {shorty} cya dp
[15:50] {Threei}  take care dp
[15:52] {dino} cya dp
[15:53] {shorty} good night all
[15:53] {RonS} cya shorty
[15:53] {Threei}  thank you all
[15:53] {Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow
[15:53] {hawk} nite all
[15:54] {RonS} same to you...
[15:54] {dino} cya 3i
[15:54] {larisa} bye :)
[15:54] {dino} cya shorty
[15:57] {dino} calling it a day, tee time in 40, cya
[15:58] {dino} and thx for ideas