Friday, July 15, 2011

Jul 15 2011

Nice morning, extremely boring afternoon, with last winning scalp literally on last minutes... Time for the weekend

Session Time: Fri Jul 15 00:00:00 2011

[08:58] :dino} gm all
[08:59] :Threei}  morning dino
[09:06] :Threei}  LB) US Sec State Clinton has recognized the Libyan rebel council in Benghazi as the legitimate government of Libya
[09:14] :nemo} Nat gas companies through the roof becaus of HK takeover
[09:17] :RonS} volume thus far seems suspect...btw gm everyone
[09:17] :Threei}  Ron :)
[09:18] :Threei}  feels to me like this gap will be sold into
[09:18] :Threei}  I know larisa, I know
[09:20] :larisa} gm :)
[09:21] :Threei}  :)
Session Close: Fri Jul 15 09:23:31 2011

Session Start: Fri Jul 15 09:23:31 2011
Session Ident: #discussions
02[09:23] * Disconnected
02[09:27] * Attempting to rejoin channel #discussions
03[09:27] * Rejoined channel #discussions
[09:27] :Threei}  great time to lose connection
[09:28] :jfjf64} mornin
[09:28] :Threei}  jf :)
[09:30] :Threei}  watching for short truiggers
[09:31] :Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .40 break
[09:31] :Threei}  if stays under .55
[09:33] :dino} leftovers www to .60
[09:33] :Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .30 break
[09:34] :Threei}  if stays under .40
[09:35] :Threei}  no go SLW
[09:35] :nemo} wow
[09:35] :Threei}  (US) Preview: July Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence Index due out at 09:55ET (13:55 GMT)**Consensus expectation: 72.0e v 71.5 June Final
[09:36] :patience} good morning
[09:36] :Threei}  morning patience
[09:37] :dino} out www .61, +.31
[09:37] :Threei}  wtg
[09:37] :Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .15 break
[09:38] :Threei}  if stays under .25
[09:41] :Threei}  lose that .30 already RIMM
[09:41] :Threei}  covering half RIMM
[09:42] :Threei}  1:1
[09:42] :Threei}  stop to .45
[09:43] :Threei}  FCX if oartialing, trail stop to .21
[09:43] :Threei}  RIMM to .41
[09:47] :samire} internet
[09:47] :Threei}  RIMM to .36
[09:49] :samire} down rimm
[09:49] :Threei}  trail FCX to .16
[09:50] :Threei}  down boy, down
[09:50] :Threei}  both trades are protected
[09:50] :Threei}  no lose territory
[09:50] :dino} gj
[09:51] :Threei}  ty
[09:51] :jfjf64} ty
[09:51] :Threei}  done with RIMM
[09:51] :Threei}  FCX was 1 cent from 1:2, lol
[09:52] :Threei}  this meaningless news caused uptick in the market:
[09:52] :nemo} watch for fcx bounce around here
[09:52] :Threei}  and robbed us of further RIMM drop
[09:52] :nemo} vwap .92
[09:52] :Threei}  (US) US House to vote on $2.4T debt ceiling increase next week, will include balanced budget amendment with provisions to 'cup, cap, and balance' - financial press
[09:52] :Threei}  - Reminder: Yesterday the White House reiterated that President Obama does not support a constitutional amendment mandating a balanced budget
[09:53] :Threei}  of course not
[09:53] :Threei}  what a calamity, balanced budget
[09:54] :Threei}  ridiculous concept, really
[09:54] :Threei}  only mad republicans could come up with such nonsense
[09:54] :nemo} yeah, can you imagine only spending what you frickin' idiotic
[09:54] :Threei}  sarcasm mode off
[09:55] :Threei}  bad michigan numbers
[09:55] :Threei}  FCX 1:3
[09:55] :Threei}  me out
[09:55] :samire} great job
[09:56] :Threei}  ty kind sir
[09:56] :Threei}  look how RIMM misbehaves
[09:56] :Threei}  was a good stop trail
[09:57] :Threei}  cionfidence numbers are lowest since March 2009
[09:57] :nemo} clx
[10:00] :dino} nav sm l .75
[10:07] :jfjf64} chk
[10:07] :jfjf64} .19 break
[10:09] :ese} morning......gig until 2 am.....
[10:09] :Threei}  morning ese
[10:09] :ese} ouch
[10:10] :ese} hurts to read
[10:10] :Threei}  always
[10:10] :Threei}  write too
[10:10] :jfjf64} dieeeeeeee
[10:11] :samire} took fst hod
[10:11] :samire} .24
[10:13] :RonS} hearing europe bank stress test announcement due at 11:30 edt, coinciding w/ their mkt close
[10:14] :nemo} any bets on how many European banks fail the stress tests
[10:14] :dino} clx sm l .75
[10:14] :dino} zero, numbers fudge
[10:14] :nemo} I agree completely
[10:16] :RonS} ha! major German bank refuses to have its results published (seen as sort of a mutiny).  Landesbank Hessen-Thueringen (known as HELABA)
[10:18] :RonS} now hearing announcement at noon edt...5 pm London
[10:19] :RonS} ha!...The stress tests are NOT enforceable.  National regulators are the ones who could force a bank to increase its capital reserves
[10:22] :Threei}  (US) Court rules that the US Govt had improperly adopted the use of airport body scanners; use will continue during publc comment period
[10:26] :samire} sold second half of fst at BE
[10:28] :samire} slw
[10:32] :Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  .55 break
[10:32] :Threei}  if holding above .45
[10:33] :Threei}  (EU) Hearing SocGen analyst note from earlier that discussed possible "near fail" banks being recirculated in the last few minutes ahead of stress test results
[10:33] :Threei}  - SocGen note this morning identified Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank and Banco Popular as potential near fails in the EBA stress tests due out at 12:00ET
[10:36] :Threei}  25 30 min till president update on debt ceiling talks
[10:36] :ese} L sgen .50
[10:37] :ese} large
[10:37] :samire} invalid
[10:37] :samire} rimm
[10:39] :ese} out 1/2 .64 3 &1/2 K +.14
[10:41] :ese} out in full avg .66 +.16
[10:43] :ese} thats it for me today....back to bed i'll take me 1050 bucks and see you all monday
[10:43] :ese} have a great weekend
[10:45] :dino}   wtg ese, take care
[10:48] :RonS} rimm re-established 3i?
[10:49] :RonS} guess he hit the sack before ese...
[10:50] :Threei}  lol
[10:50] :Threei}  I think so
[10:58] :Threei}  invalidated again
[10:58] :Threei}  shrug
[11:02] :dino} arx sm l.90
[11:04] :RonS} Oprompta on tv...
[11:06] :dino} lol, "who's on the list" staged questions
[11:07] :RonS} dang...took my eye off rimm
[11:12] :Threei}  me too
[11:12] :dino} you 3
[11:12] :Threei}  that too
[11:16] :Threei}  (US) Pres Obama: Reiterates to general public that the debt ceiling is 'not an abstract issue'; we have the opportunity to stabilize finances for the next decade or two
[11:16] :Threei}  - Still pushing for the "biggest deal possible."
[11:16] :Threei}  - Fallback position would be to raise the debt ceiling but not make any progress on deficit reduction.
[11:16] :Threei}  - Congress needs to show us a plan on debt ceiling and a "serious" plan on deficit reduction in the next 24-36 hours.
[11:16] :Threei}  - Q&A: Asked about the House plan for $2.4T in cuts, says he has not seen it; expect the House Republicans will like take a few votes to make "political statements."
[11:17] :dino} bal bloodied again
[11:18] :RonS} ...and i thought cotton balls stoped bleeding...
[11:19] :RonS} w/ pressure of course...
[11:19] :dino} lol
[11:20] :RonS} hgsi is really curious...lupus drug gets apporved here and eur...52 week low
[11:22] :dino} gap 19.77 two years ago
[11:24] :Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .25
[11:25] :Threei}  .15 for a stop
[11:26] :dino} ghl pulp up/down
[11:27] :samire} i was away
[11:28] :samire} did fcx trigger ?
[11:28] :Threei}  yes
[11:35] :jfjf64} comon  fcx  mk  up  ya  mind
[11:38] :Threei}  no go
[11:44] :RonS} yum l .40
[11:53] :RonS} yum out .52 +.12  wanted to hold longer but too close to announcement
[11:57] :samire} Vad......I noticed that is the first 90 minutes is when you make most of your money ? Am I correct ?
[11:58] :Threei}  mostly yes, especially during these slow summer times
[11:58] :Threei}  it will change come fall
[11:58] :samire} ok
[11:58] :Threei}  if you look at intraday charts, you''ll see this clear pattern of useable movement in the morning,
[11:58] :Threei}  then long stall, or very slow move
[11:58] :RonS} but milk trades usually occur mid-day
[11:59] :Threei}  then activity resumes a bit into close
[11:59] :Threei}  so, I am simply following market pattern
[11:59] :dino}  gj yum ron
[11:59] :dino} what am i missing clx? buyout offer 76.50
[12:00] :RonS} it's usually does not want to involve him...
[12:00] :dino} but offer is on table
[12:01] :RonS} but golden parachutes need to be negotiated
[12:01] :dino} hmmmm
[12:03] :RonS} hearing 8 banks failed test...16 narowly passed...all italian banks passed
[12:03] :RonS} narrowly
[12:05] :dino} clx to .79
[12:05] :RonS} snagged yum .67 to .76
[12:06] :dino} to .85
[12:06] :dino} gj
[12:07] :dino} out clx .85, +1.10
[12:07] :RonS} gj
[12:07] :RonS} Italy austerity package passes
[12:08] :dino} ty, took coule hours
[12:08] :dino} couple
[12:09] :Threei}  - 1 of 3 austrian banks adverse scenario (Volksbank failed);two Greek banks, and 5 Spain banks fail (Banco Pastore failed, BBVA passed)
[12:09] :Threei}  - All portugal banks pass, all germany banks pass, all three ireland banks, all france banks pass, all Italy banks pass as of April 30
[12:09] :Threei}  - 20 banks would have passed as of Dec 31
[12:09] :Threei}  - 13 banks barely passed the test (7 Spain Banks, 2 Germany banks, 2 Greece banks, and 2 Portugal banks); 16 banks need to raise capital
[12:23] :samire} that is a good number of banks failed
[12:23] :RonS} ...but expected 16...
[12:24] :RonS} ...and is a made-up stress test...
[12:25] :RonS} 5 were spanish caja banks...guess cajas were cacka
[12:25] :RonS} :P
[12:28] :RonS} dino...Tom's just ace! Golfing great Watson delights crowds with hole in one at Open
[12:30] :dino} cool
[12:32] :nemo} Gizmo cacka
[12:43] :dino}  corn, sgg, bal all drop
[12:53] :samire} lunch slow down
[12:56] :Threei}  (US) House of Representatives votes to remove funding for renewable energy; removes $5.9B from energy spending bill
[12:56] :Threei}  - Note that these cuts are part of a bill that would fund the Energy Department and other agencies for 2012. The bill would reduce spending on solar energy research, energy efficiency programs, and loan guarantees for renewable energy projects.
[12:56] :Threei}  - Passed by a vote of 219 to 196, many provisions would have trouble passing the Democrat-controlled Senate.
[13:20] :nemo} COF might be a short
[13:30] :nemo} COG
[13:41] :dino}  .
[13:46] :Threei}  in case you woindered,
[13:46] :Threei}  (LB) Colonel Gaddafi: Will continue to fight despite US recognition of Libya rebel forces
[13:48] :dino} dead man walking
[13:55] :RonS} mystery?  why is the colonel not a general?
[13:57] :dino} ghl sm l .51
[13:57] :RonS} Greenhill & Co. puts active; shares approach five-year low on banker departure       07/15 11:24 AM
[13:58] :RonS} Timothy M. George, a member of the management committee, departing for Lazard
[13:59] :samire} stop dino on ghl  ?
[13:59] :dino} .23
[13:59] :dino} entry sucked
[13:59] :samire} thanx....with u
[14:00] :samire} market wen down when u entered
[14:00] :samire} went
[14:00] :dino} yeah, i see that
[14:06] :samire} out .56
[14:06] :samire} from ghl
[14:06] :samire} small profit
[14:06] :samire} thanks dino
[14:06] :dino}  gj
[14:06] :dino} wicked
[14:10] :dino} ghl stopped, good exit sami
[14:16] :samire} thanx
[14:16] :dino} my stop even a good exit, lol
[14:23] :RonS} rumor...ghl contemplating name change to sinkhole & co...
[14:24] :dino} gnat on the wall
[14:27] :RonS} sm l ghl .03
[14:27] :dino} gj
[14:27] :samire} are we going to have another end of theday sell off ?
[14:28] :Threei}  feels this way
[14:29] :nemo} looks like bounce here maybe
[14:30] :RonS} damn, missed my .45 exit by .02...scratched ghl
[14:38] :RonS} slow motion trainwreck...
[14:38] :dino}  indeed
[14:45] :dino} sm l clw .05 thinny
[14:56] :Threei}  (US) S&P analyst reiterates a downgrade of the US's AAA rating could come in the last week of July if risk of default increases; would move to selective default on Aug 4
[14:56] :Threei}  - Reminder: Earlier S&P commented that it would most likely downgrade the US's rating before the Aug 2 deadline if the issues persist
[15:00] :Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .60 break
[15:04] :Threei}  ok SPY, some pre-weekend panic would be welcome
[15:07] :Threei}  nope
[15:27] :dino}  pattern changing, buying into close
[15:27] :nemo} spy pivot .48 vwap .30 likely that area
[15:30] :nemo} huge offer .81 clx
[15:41] :samire} 20 more minute
[15:42] :Threei}  selling just has to come here
[15:42] :Threei}  taking TZA .20 break as last attempt
[15:43] :Threei}  correction, .10 break
[15:43] :Threei}  (US) Treasury Dept takes measures to suspend reinvestments of exchange stabilization funds as part of tools to maintain the US under the debt ceiling
[15:43] :Threei}  - Suspension part of previously announced methods to extend deadline to Aug 2; will take no other measures to extend the deadline
[15:47] :dino} arx stop -.20
[15:53] :Threei}  half out
[15:53] :Threei}  .19
[15:53] :Threei}  almost running out of time
[15:58] :Threei}  come on
[15:58] :Threei}  just a tad more
[15:58] :dino} out nav -.07
[15:59] :Threei}  ok
[15:59] :Threei}  no time for more
[15:59] :Threei}  done
[15:59] :Threei}  th8an you all, have a great relaxing weekend
[15:59] :dino} out clw .10, +.05
[15:59] :Threei}  see youi on Monday
[15:59] :larisa} bye :)