Monday, August 15, 2011

Aug 15 2011

Very boring and largely flat day, as stops and wins balanced each other out. One trade though was interesting.

How do you trade when you have low level of confidence in the setup? This example shows just that. Let's start with 46.20 level - you can see how it shapes up as breakout setup up to 10:21. The market however is not very conducive to breakouts. To control the risk tighter, my method in this case was:

- enter half lot on pullback to 46.11, stop under 46
- add another half at .21, stop for full lot at .05
- exit half at .28 and 1/4 at .37;
- trail stop to .15 (low of the last pullback, and where the last 1/4 got stopped and stock went down ever since).

Playing it this way, you keep risk small until setup confirms itself. This is also perfect fit to the idea: play small when uncertain, add when certainty increases. Breakout of 46.20 is a confirmation of strength, thus a reason to increase shares; initial entry is done in a very uncertain moment, thus initial size is small.

Session Time: Mon Aug 15 00:00:00 2011
[09:17] {Threei}
[09:19] {larisa} gm :)
[09:19] {Threei}  larisa :)
[09:20] {larisa} vad :)
[09:24] {RonS} icahn hit a home run or what...30 mil sh mmi
[09:24] {Threei}  Ron :)
[09:24] {Threei}  good for him
[09:26] {RonS} i think i read mmi has 17k patents and 7k in pipeline...this is what carl unlock the vlaue in those...
[09:30] {Threei}  TIMM
[09:30] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .80 break
[09:30] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .30 break
[09:31] {nemo} gonna' gap close today
[09:31] {Threei}  SLW stop above .40 or .45
[09:32] {Threei}  RIMM got away
[09:33] {Threei}  RIMM same setup again
[09:33] {Threei}  .80 break short
[09:33] {Threei}  1:1
[09:34] {Threei}  SLW stop .41
[09:34] {Threei}  out RIMM in full here, 1:3
[09:35] {Threei}  SLW half out
[09:35] {Threei}  stop to .32
[09:35] {Threei}  1/4 out 1:2
[09:36] {Threei}  stop to .26
[09:36] {Threei}  1:3, out
[09:37] {Threei}  wow, everyone's asleep this fine morning
[09:41] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .20 break
[09:41] {Threei}  stop above .30
[09:41] {nemo} slw spready this morning
[09:42] {Threei}  a bit above the usual, yeah
[09:42] {nemo} .10 to spy gap close
[09:42] {Threei}  dino answered the alarm clock call
[09:43] {dino} gm, back in 30 or so
[09:43] {Threei}  morning
[09:44] {Threei}  out SLW
[09:47] {RonS} eur went nuts
[09:47] {RonS} gotta be a squeeze
[09:47] {Threei}  expecting eurobonds to get a nod tomorrow, I'd think
[09:48] {Threei}  only to crash hard if no nod
[09:48] {dino} agree
[09:48] {Threei}  Euro lives in the land of total delusion, IMO
[09:48] {RonS} means today is a winkin and blinkin?
[09:49] {Threei}  it's so far from reality that no real laws of real world longer apply
[09:49] {Threei}  fantasy land
[09:49] {Threei}  at some point reality hits hard,m
[09:49] {Threei}  and that's when a lot of lives and fortunes will be ruined
[09:50] {Threei}  just like it happened with RE
[09:50] {Threei}  FCX
[09:50] {Threei}  looking to short this bounce
[09:52] {Threei}  no clear entry yet
[09:52] {Threei}  thought of .90 but that was iffy
[09:52] {Threei}  worked nonetheless...
[10:04] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .30 break
[10:05] {Threei}  no go
[10:08] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .75 break
[10:08] {Threei}  .86 stop, not a scalp, targeting .40 or so
[10:09] {Threei}  touched 1:1, I was abit too slow on partial
[10:10] {Threei}  out
[10:10] {nemo} not a day for break plays
[10:10] {Threei}  screwed up this one, didn't have order in
[10:20] {Threei}  FCX forms breakout...
[10:21] {nemo} spy isn't
[10:21] {dino} .
[10:22] {Threei}  in FCX aggressively
[10:22] {Threei}  half lot
[10:22] {Threei}  either stop under 46 or adding second half on .20 break
[10:25] {Threei}  let's go FCX
[10:25] {Threei}  break that .20
[10:25] {Threei}  good boy
[10:25] {Threei}  stop for the whole lot is .05
[10:29] {Threei}  half out
[10:29] {Threei}  .28
[10:29] {Threei}  stop to .14
[10:30] {Threei}  1/4 more out
[10:30] {Threei}  .37
[10:43] {Threei}  out last piece
[10:53] {RonS} sbh l .22
[11:06] {RonS} out sbh .34 +.12
[11:07] {dino} gj
[11:10] {RonS} ty mini-ese on a thinny...
[11:11] {Threei}  mini-ese, lol
[11:11] {Threei}
[11:14] {dino} sm l el .00
[11:21] {dino} stop -.33
[11:38] {dino} el sm l .57
[11:39] {dino} out el .11, +.55
[11:39] {dino} .54
[12:08] {dino}  sm l idcc .54 ave
[12:25] {Threei}  market is very unconfident
[12:37] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .90 break
[12:37] {Threei}  half lot
[12:38] {Threei}  stop is self-evident
[12:38] {RonS} bidu down on fraud link rumors...
[12:42] {Threei}  so far so good FCX, refuses to go up with market
[12:43] {Threei}  with half lot, stop is negligible, willing to give it a chance
[12:47] {Threei}  no go
[12:47] {Threei}  whole day today is mostly wating for tomorrow
[12:48] {Threei}  Europe is where the next market move is being decided
[12:50] {RonS} means a continental move?
[12:50] {Threei}  Merkel and Sarkozy meet tomorrow,
[12:51] {RonS} fi one is bearish does that make you a putin?
[12:51] {Threei}  and Eurobonds issuing is a major matter of discussion
[12:51] {RonS} if
[12:51] {Threei}  hmmm
[12:51] {Threei}  that's too deep
[12:52] {Threei}  market at tis point is in deep denial
[12:52] {RonS} ask nemo...not,,,maybe, too corny...
[12:52] {Threei}  no one wants to admit that no matter what they do, EU is doome
[12:52] {Threei}  doomed
[12:53] {Threei}  the only thing that matters for the next move is whether they kick the can down the road now
[12:53] {Threei}  or give up
[12:53] {RonS} hard to understand the fascination with it all
[12:53] {Threei}  postpone the collapse, market shoots up
[12:53] {RonS} are they really that afraid of warring with each other still?
[12:54] {Threei}  very much
[12:55] {dino} they will kick it down road w/bonds, aka brady type. give up will be out of ther control
[12:55] {Threei}  that's how I feel too
[12:56] {Threei}  collapse tomorrow is better than collapse today, and maybe something happens and helps prevent it, let's grab at each straw we can find
[12:56] {dino} think about it, those in charge, politicians, are out of job on give up
[12:56] {Threei}  right
[12:56] {Threei}  they bet their entire life and career on this thing
[12:56] {Threei}  not in their worst nightmare could they imagine such unraveling
[12:57] {nemo} good thing for them no guillotine
[12:57] {nemo} their egos would collapse
[13:11] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .50 break
[13:11] {nemo} that's a frickin' chopfest
[13:12] {Threei}  it is... but as we near the end of day, fear should overtake...
[13:12] {Threei}  barring new soundbites of course
[13:12] {nemo} overtook me already
[13:12] {Threei}  oh, man up
[13:16] {Threei}  invalidated by loomking for another entry
[13:16] {Threei}  ummm
[13:16] {Threei}  invalidated but looking for another entry
[13:17] {Threei}  ok, will try .60 break
[13:25] {Threei}  nah
[13:29] {nemo} wlaking up the spy trendline
[13:30] {nemo} not sure, but odds seem to favor another run above the highs
[13:30] {nemo} have to be a bunch of stops in the 121.50 area
[13:32] {dino} out idcc .23, +.69
[13:32] {Threei}  wtg
[13:32] {dino} ty, took awhile
[13:33] {Threei}  I dunno nemo... SPY looks to me like bounce exhausting itse;f
[13:33] {Threei}  daily I mean
[13:33] {Threei}  intraday is very vague
[13:33] {dino} coh sm l .40
[13:38] {dino} stop is .24
[13:45] {Threei}  120 is about t be broken
[14:00] {Threei}  what the deuce, RIMM
[14:07] {dino} coh rinsed
[14:07] {Threei}  going to try and short RIMM .50 bvreak
[14:08] {Threei}  double top hunt
[14:08] {Threei}  stop is self-evident
[14:08] {Threei}  target's 26.10 or so, three partials
[14:11] {Threei}  1:1
[14:12] {Threei}  stop to .55 for the lanace
[14:14] {Threei}  oh well
[14:14] {Threei}  wanted more out of it
[14:15] {dino} idcc sm l .51
[14:19] {dino} out idcc .91, +.40
[14:42] {dino} wow thing went to 61
[15:04] {Threei}  sheesh
[15:04] {Threei}  RIMM
[15:06] {dino} sheesh idcc 62s
[15:06] {RonS} shees .spx 1201.26
[15:07] {dino} lol
[15:52] {dino} 65s ugh
[15:57] {Threei}  seems fear dissipated
[15:58] {Threei}  there is no such thing as bear anymore... only bulls roam the orairies
[15:58] {Threei}  prairies
[15:58] {Threei}  not for very long, I suspect
[15:58] {Threei}  OK guys, have a good evening, see you tomorrow
[15:58] {larisa} bye :)
[16:01] {dino} gn all