That was quite an eventful day with a lot of trades, and nicely profitable. Read through the log to track it all, and there are few highlights to show. 3 of them - so you can see how busy it has been!
This is a quick update to a video on SPY daily chart from Aug 19 to show where we are and what levels and developments to watch as significant. Posted first thing in the morning.
Had another nice play soon after opening, read the log from 10:07 to 10:18 for a somewhat unusual way to control the risk:
Finally, Catch of the Day is this nice FCX reversal after early morning bounce, and this was the first play for us:
Session Time: Tue Sep 06 00:00:01 2011
[08:43] {Threei} http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=130130730419211
[08:50] {dino} gm all
[08:50] {Threei} dino :)
[08:54] {Z} gm :)
[08:55] {Threei} Z :)
[09:11] {Threei} guys, does this link open fine?
[09:11] {Threei} http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=130130730419211
[09:13] {Z} says content unavailable for me
[09:13] {Threei} huh
[09:14] {Threei} maybe it's for facebook users only
[09:16] {Threei} try this instead
[09:16] {Threei} http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2011/09/sep-06-2011.html
[09:17] {RonS} gm...opened just fine for me
[09:18] {Threei} ty Ron
[09:18] {Z} that one worked threei
[09:18] {Threei} cool
[09:20] {Threei} previous video, of which this one is continuation, is available at http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2011/08/aug-19-2011.html
[09:26] {Threei} ok, if you viwed this video you know what levels are critical,
[09:26] {larisa} gm :)
[09:26] {Threei} larisa :)
[09:26] {Threei} and as for the opening, well, we will definitely skip first minutes, volatility will be a killer
[09:27] {Threei} then will ry to determine what comes first, bounce or consolidation-breakdown
[09:27] {Threei} and play accordingly
[09:27] {nemo} slw short on open...hehehehhe
[09:27] {Threei} overall, this morning is one of those when you have to remember about pilots
[09:27] {Threei} lol
[09:27] {Threei} ythere are old pilots...there bold pilots... there are no old bold pilots
[09:27] {nemo} faz has pulled back
[09:28] {nemo} or blind ones
[09:28] {Threei} I have a joke about those... but Ron is going to strangle me if I tell it
[09:31] {dino} gaps ndx 2044, s/p 1120
[09:32] {Threei} if you watch FCX just now, you could see why I want to skip these first minutes
[09:32] {Threei} 30 cents teleportation both ways faster than you could blink
[09:34] {Threei} put RIMM on your screen
[09:34] {Threei} looking for short entry
[09:35] {dino} meli sm l ave .21
[09:35] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM .10 break
[09:37] {Threei} if stays under .25
[09:37] {Threei} not a scalp
[09:37] {Threei} should be capable of much more
[09:38] {ese} morning
[09:38] {Threei} ese :)
[09:39] {dino} joyg sm l .53
[09:39] {ese} how many times do you think the media can panic the market.....
[09:39] {dino} 1000x
[09:39] {Threei} let's trail to .21
[09:39] {ese} appears that way
[09:39] {Threei} media?
[09:39] {Threei} this is Europe falling apart
[09:41] {nemo} fcx
[09:43] {Threei} .short fcx 44 break
[09:43] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX 44 break
[09:43] {Threei} if stays under .10 of course
[09:43] {Threei} target .60
[09:44] {Threei} out RIMM
[09:46] {ese} nice dino......
[09:46] {dino} out joyg .22, +.69
[09:46] {Threei} wtg
[09:46] {ese} still goin
[09:46] {dino} untrusting
[09:47] {Threei} die already FCX
[09:47] {pragmatic} FCX and SLW in some kind of indecision. Flat chart
[09:48] {pragmatic} are there any numbers coming? or they are waiting for SPY's direction ?
[09:48] {nemo} ISM 10:00 am
[09:48] {RonS} non-mfg ism in 11 min
[09:49] {Threei} US) Preview: Aug ISM Non-Manufacturing Index due out at 10:00ET (14:00GMT)**Consensus expectation: 51.0e v 52.7 prior
[09:49] {ese} dino do you have a screen to find those gap fills
[09:49] {dino} just always watching them
[09:49] {Threei} (GE) Germany Junior Econ Min: There will be no eurobonds under the current government
[09:49] {ese} tks
[09:49] {dino} have a rotating 30 that i watch/play
[09:50] {pragmatic} RIMM double bottom ?
[09:51] {Threei} doesn't look right to me
[09:51] {Threei} FCX 1:1
[09:51] {Threei} 1:2
[09:52] {Threei} 1:3
[09:52] {Z} nice one threei :)
[09:52] {dino} gj
[09:52] {Threei} ty
[09:53] {Threei} (IT) Italy Govt will call for a confidence vote with regards to the austerity package
[09:53] {Threei} (UK) UK Chancellor Osborne: UK is not immune to the situation in the euro zone; UK will not participate in further euro zone fiscal integration
[09:53] {nemo} one more nail in the euro coffin
[09:54] {Threei} it's undead
[09:54] {Threei} kind of dead but still walking, sucking blood
[09:55] {Threei} wooden stake through the heart should do
[09:55] {dino} vampire-like
[09:55] {dino} need vad the impaler
[09:56] {Threei} lol
[09:56] {nemo} I'll take Kate Beckinsale myself
[09:56] {dino} ditto
[09:56] {nemo} not sharing
[09:56] {Threei} so many beautiful countries, getting suffocated under this dead weight
[09:57] {dino} holding well, tzoo, plcm, chk, gpor, csh, cyou, ovti (friday too)
[09:57] {Threei} RIMM was a fouble bottom
[09:58] {Threei} didn't like it then, and don't like it now, wouldn't play it
[09:58] {pragmatic} I thought you are friends with RIMM
[09:58] {Threei} well, it's a fickle friendship
[09:58] {Threei} I would say, case by case friendship
[09:59] {pragmatic} hmm
[09:59] {Threei} it stopped me out this morning, I am suspicious of it
[09:59] {pragmatic} don't mention it to RIMM though, it might be disappointed
[09:59] {Threei} FCX on the other hand...
[09:59] {Threei} still have 1/4 for that .60
[09:59] {Threei} with b/e stop
[10:00] {dino} 07 all green
[10:00] {Threei} *(US) AUG ISM NON-MANUFACTURING COMPOSITE: 53.3 V 51.0E
[10:00] {ese} LINTC .24
[10:00] {Threei} (GR) Slovakia Fin Min: Any sign that Greece reforms are lagging are cause for concern
[10:00] {Threei} lagging? lol
[10:01] {Threei} absent, call it a spade
[10:02] {Threei} target hit
[10:03] {Threei} out FCX in full
[10:04] {ese} good one chief......
[10:04] {Threei} ty
[10:04] {Threei} I have my moments... :)
[10:05] {dino} csh sm l .11
[10:05] {Threei} I am doubly careful this morning
[10:05] {Threei} have to say, bounce is very anemic so far
[10:06] {Threei} for such substantial gap down, trading is quite subdued and bounce doesn't look enthusiastic
[10:06] {Threei} I suspect we are to see a bout of selling soon
[10:07] {Threei} Long Setup: TZA 44 break
[10:07] {Threei} stop under .85
[10:07] {nemo} ?
[10:07] {nemo} 50 break?
[10:07] {Threei} 50... grr
[10:07] {ese} out 1/2 intc .32 +.07
[10:07] {ese} I see signs of market not buying media negitvety hype
[10:07] {ese} out intc balance even
[10:07] {ese} .24 +/-.00
[10:08] {Threei} target about 50.70
[10:08] {Threei} 1:1
[10:08] {Threei} stop to .95
[10:09] {Threei} balance stopped
[10:10] {dino} meli stopped
[10:10] {_thomcbell} Vad - i dont understand the TZA trade
[10:10] {Threei} looking for another entry
[10:10] {Threei} Long Setup: TZA 50 break again
[10:11] {Threei} same stop, under .85
[10:11] {Threei} not a scalp again
[10:11] {Threei} trying to nail that big move
[10:11] {Threei} 1:1
[10:11] {Threei} 1:2
[10:11] {nemo} .75 should be target area
[10:12] {Threei} :)
[10:12] {Threei} 1:3
[10:12] {Threei} last piece if for the .70 target
[10:13] {Threei} 1:4
[10:13] {Threei} direct hit
[10:13] {Threei} can I go home?
[10:13] {nemo} nfw
[10:13] {Threei} sigh
[10:14] {Threei} nemo is as always, succinct and rude
[10:14] {Threei} just as we come to know and love him
[10:14] {pragmatic} congrat on TZA. Beautiful play
[10:15] {_thomcbell} what was the setup Vad
[10:15] {Threei} hmmm
[10:15] {Threei} I can qualify it in tertospect, but that would be a lie
[10:16] {Threei} what it essentially is:
[10:16] {Threei} strong feeling of market reversal coming,
[10:16] {Threei} watching TZA for a micro-resistance to break,
[10:16] {nemo} yeah, and after that spike below the BBs everything else was inside
[10:16] {Threei} where 50 was a cool nice thing to trigger
[10:17] {Threei} yes, bujt hinestly, I see it in retrospect only
[10:17] {Threei} didn't pay atention to it at the time of the call
[10:17] {Threei} you can see this from the way I played it
[10:17] {Threei} twice,
[10:17] {Threei} first one with partial and b/e stop,
[10:17] {Threei} retrying it again
[10:17] {Threei} kind of:
[10:18] {Threei} I believe this is what is going to happen, and I want to utilizxe this,
[10:18] {_thomcbell} ok got it
[10:18] {Threei} but I am a trader first and foremost,
[10:18] {nemo} on the retry you also had higher lows
[10:18] {Threei} and as a tader, my first and overriding objective is...
[10:18] {Threei} what?
[10:18] {_thomcbell} risk
[10:18] {nemo} on the second try
[10:18] {Threei} :)
[10:18] {Threei} risk control
[10:24] {Threei} OK, everyone can see this one please?
[10:24] {Threei} http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=256445007723515&set=a.237133656321317.63196.235739863127363&type=1
[10:26] {_jonnyquesada} wow...congrats
[10:27] {ese} good trade
[10:27] {Threei} :)
[10:28] {Threei} nemo... are we in to repeat the performance of the fall of 2008? :)
[10:29] {nemo} oh yeah
[10:29] {dino} half way thru it, imo, dax -30% in august alone
[10:30] {nemo} I think this goes until the Euro collapses
[10:30] {Threei} quite possibly...
[10:30] {dino} comes down to default or monitizing
[10:30] {Threei} remembering how we played that fall to perfection, I want to repeat that
[10:31] {Threei} to have a perfect record of killing the market during turmoil times
[10:31] {nemo} yeah, you laughed all the way through the minefield
[10:31] {nemo} I love the smell of limit down in the morning....
[10:31] {Threei} dino, yes... but monetizing in Europe is quite complicated ting to undertake,
[10:31] {Threei} political divides won't allow to do it easily
[10:32] {Threei} even in US it's not easy anymore
[10:32] {Threei} and US cohesiveness is way stronger
[10:32] {nemo} the markets will when bonds collapse, they'll have no choice
[10:32] {Threei} hmmm
[10:32] {Threei} look at FCX
[10:33] {dino} but, 3i, w/o out monitization, most of european banks are dead
[10:33] {Threei} that .60 was a great secondary entry
[10:33] {Threei} yes... and that's what needs to happen
[10:33] {pragmatic} X ss .50 ?
[10:33] {Threei} US banks would have been dead, and it would be better if they let them die back then
[10:33] {Threei} no, X
[10:34] {Threei} or rather:
[10:34] {nemo} fcx might be a long here
[10:34] {Threei} risk is higher than acceptable on this play
[10:34] {pragmatic} a7 .60 ?
[10:34] {Threei} .60 is more like it, yes
[10:34] {Threei} if bounces in there and stalls
[10:35] {pragmatic} yup, look like it found a support at 49-50
[10:35] {Threei} watch SPY
[10:36] {Threei} don't pay X as a standaloine stock
[10:36] {pragmatic} ok
[10:36] {nemo} fcx, this low important level
[10:37] {Threei} mystery for me:
[10:37] {nemo} hourly chart to 26th
[10:37] {Threei} 3 people register for a trial over the weekend, trading day comes - they never even try to connect
[10:37] {Threei} why people do that, I'll never understand
[10:38] {nemo} blew up their trading accounts in the futures and fx markets
[10:38] {Threei} I mean never trying to connect the room part
[10:38] {nemo} yeah, they committed suicide
[10:38] {Threei} why do you apply for a trial if you don't intend to use it
[10:39] {nemo} short .03
[10:39] {Threei} FCX?
[10:39] {nemo} if it drops 43, gonna be nice
[10:39] {nemo} yep
[10:39] {nemo} keep flashing bid at .00
[10:39] {nemo} but pulling it
[10:39] {Threei} canadian dollar is my favorite thing this fine morning
[10:40] {nemo} out
[10:40] {nemo} watch...rinse coming
[10:40] {Threei} quite possible...
[10:41] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX 43 break
[10:41] {nemo} you bastid
[10:41] {Threei} if stays under .10
[10:41] {nemo} spike was .15
[10:41] {Threei} no... I am just not a fan of odd triggers
[10:41] {Threei} like .03
[10:41] {dino} meli sm l .60
[10:41] {nemo} yeah, but I figure it'll be a jailbreak below 43, might not be able to get shares
[10:42] {dino} tkr sm l .90
[10:42] {Threei} I understand, but going for aggressive entry would be more sensible around .10
[10:42] {nemo} yes, spy looking long here
[10:42] {dino} ovti sm l .89
[10:43] {Threei} invalidated, but on a radar for new consolidation
[10:43] {Threei} no, invalidated totally
[10:43] {nemo} spy to 114.90
[10:51] {Threei} look how things narroed down
[10:52] {Threei} after such huge gap, no big action, no buyers jumping in?
[10:52] {Threei} I say seloff is not over
[10:57] {dino} brk/b sm l .90
[10:57] {RonS} have a finviz page open screening for -5%...started at 6 pages...now 15...
[10:58] {RonS} 16
[10:58] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX .40 break if stays under .50
[10:58] {Threei} interesting Ron... increasing while SPY bounces?
[10:58] {nemo} nice volume doji
[10:58] {Threei} or it's delayed?
[10:58] {RonS} yep
[10:59] {RonS} well it is delayed
[10:59] {nemo} nex test for spy around .20 area
[10:59] {RonS} but still it did increase on the initial run
[11:02] {RonS} so, ubs detailed how the eur needs to go away and stock hit -12%
[11:02] {ese} L intc .25
[11:03] {RonS} -5% now 18 pages
[11:03] {RonS} 19
[11:04] {Threei} violense time?
06[11:04] * Threei hits fcx over the head with 2x4
[11:04] {ese} lol
[11:04] {Threei} hey, it works
[11:04] {RonS} eur lod
[11:04] {ese} I know.....thats the funny thing
[11:04] {Threei} hehe
[11:05] {Threei} well, as old saying goes...
[11:05] {Threei} kind word and a gun is way more effective than just kind word
[11:05] {Threei} 1:1
[11:06] {_thomcbell} Al Capone in Untouchables?
[11:07] {Threei} not sure about origin
[11:09] {Threei} yup, you are right
[11:09] {Threei} google says so
[11:10] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM 30 break
[11:10] {Threei} let's test our frienship once again
[11:11] {ese} L tna .92
[11:11] {RonS} lol...German foreign minister says we have a debt crisis, not a crisis of Euro
[11:11] {Threei} lol
[11:11] {ese} sm
[11:11] {nemo} frickin' moron
[11:12] {Threei} EUR/USD Drops below $1.400 for the first time since July 13
[11:12] {ese} you mean "more off"
[11:12] {ese} not on
[11:15] {Threei} nope, still not friends
[11:16] {ese} out tna .30 +.38
[11:16] {Threei} wtg
[11:16] {Threei} very nice
[11:16] {dino} out meli .18, +.58
[11:16] {dino} out brk/b .27, +.37
[11:17] {ese} tks
[11:17] {dino} out tkr .23, +.34
[11:17] {Threei} lol... beautiful tyriple play
[11:17] {dino} out csh .42, +.31
[11:17] {Threei} quadruple
[11:18] {dino} lucky
[11:18] {Threei} someone stop dino, he won't leave any money in the market for the rest of us
[11:18] {ese} whoa dino.....slow down buddy slow down!!!!!!!!
[11:18] {dino} too soon on all
[11:18] {ese} nice
[11:18] {Threei} oh come on
[11:18] {Threei} "too soon..."
[11:19] {Threei} leave some money in the pit, otherwise no one will come out to play with you tomorrow
[11:19] {ese} exactly.......thats what i say
[11:23] {Threei} while no clear play aroundf, let me entertain you a little
[11:24] {Threei} http://photography.realitytrader.com/2011/09/flamingo-with-difference.html
[11:24] {Threei} and
[11:24] {Threei} http://photography.realitytrader.com/2011/09/on-another-visit-to-church-and-state.html
[11:25] {RonS} terrific falcon shots 3i
[11:25] {Threei} ty
[11:26] {Threei} hard to even keep this thing in the frame, so fast it moves
[11:26] {Threei} wow SLW
[11:27] {dino} tzoo sm l .65
[11:31] {Threei} SPY forms break... I am not really keen on playing it
[11:31] {Threei} bscking off until something more definite appears
[11:31] {Threei} backing
[11:40] {ese} out intc 1/2 .32 +.07
[11:46] {ese} out intc balance .30 +.05
[11:46] {ese} am outta here.......first day of school....cya tomorrow
[11:47] {dino} cya
[11:48] {Threei} take care ese
[11:52] {Threei} http://www.businessinsider.com/josef-ackermann-euro-banks-speech-frankfurt-2011-9
[11:58] {dino} pretty much what we've been saying
[11:59] {Threei} takes a while for them to admit it eh
[11:59] {Threei} and notice how all of sudden and with no any kind of connection stub at HFT is thrown in
[11:59] {Threei} heh
[12:01] {dino} yeah, lot of good banning shorts did
[12:01] {dino} idiots
[12:02] {nemo} they need a demon
[12:02] {dino} correct. and it is always the evil speculators.
[12:02] {nemo} he's from the Black Forest area
[12:05] {nemo} tna looking long here off of spy
[12:06] {nemo} DF me didn't want to play the break at lunch
[12:23] {dino} out tzoo .11, +.46
[12:59] {_thomcbell} check
[13:02] {dino} .
[13:03] {Threei} Short Setup: X .80 break
[13:09] {Threei} let's scratch it
[13:09] {Threei} SPY is not helping
[13:09] {Threei} out .82
[13:09] {Threei} minimal damage
[13:11] {dino} plcm sm l .95
[13:13] {Threei} good scratch
[13:33] {Threei} VRSN
[13:36] {RonS} cancelled out of citi conference w/ no reason
[13:36] {Threei} yeah
[13:49] {dino} idcc sm l .98
[13:49] {nemo} this is incredible
[13:49] {dino} what?
[13:49] {Threei} what is?
[13:49] {nemo} this much of a rcovery
[13:50] {dino} classic 300 pt range day
[13:50] {larisa} when we were -250, i wanted to say "positive" close? but did not want to look like an idiot :)
[13:50] {larisa} may be not to late :)
[13:50] {Threei} great.. leave me alone feel and look like one
[13:51] {larisa} ok :)
[13:51] {Threei} sure... NOW she agrees with me
[13:54] {dino} brk/b sm l .20
[14:08] {Threei} Long Setup: X .20 break
[14:10] {dino} 07 green
[14:11] {dino} cat, joyg green
[14:12] {dino} out plcm .32, +.37
[14:12] {Threei} wtg
[14:14] {dino} ty
[14:15] {dino} larisa may be right
[14:15] {Threei} 1:1
[14:17] {dino} out idcc .28, +.30
[14:25] {Threei} (GE) Bundesbank's Dombret: Wary of giving more power or funding to the IMF, would not be in favor of expanding the IMF's reach
[14:26] {Threei} 1:2
[14:26] {Threei} I am out in full
[14:26] {Threei} not hanging out for more, this long play was kind of against my liking as it is
[14:29] {dino} kind of the theme for me today
[14:35] {_thomcbell} iwm failed right at Friday low
[14:37] {dino} chk sm l .75
[14:43] {Threei} so, little illustrations to the theme of jobs leaving US and whether they even come back
[14:44] {Threei} I am at the electronic store, asking about optical audio cable
[14:44] {Threei} "sure, here it is" - $24.99
[14:44] {Threei} say what?
[14:44] {Threei} yeah, this is sophisticated cable, not a cheap thing to make
[14:44] {Threei} ok, thank you
[14:44] {Threei} coming back home, going to ebay
[14:45] {Threei} $.99 +.25 shipment
[14:45] {Threei} from China, where else
[14:45] {Threei} $1.24
[14:45] {Threei} will I pay 24.99 out of patriotism?
[14:46] {Threei} and what kind of patriotism would that be, if I asm absolutely sure that the one in the store is produced in that same china, and my money will go to supply chain, not to domestic manufacturer
[14:48] {larisa} same thing with window shades.. $2500 to cover 3 windows/doors with beautiful shades.. $200 to do the same using internet
[14:49] {Threei} oh boy
[14:49] {Threei} globalization my a**
[14:51] {Threei} (GR) Dutch Fin Min de Jager: Still no deal on Greek collateral for Finland; Greece needs to meet its targets to receive 2nd package
[14:51] {Threei} - Still very concerned about Greek pledges in regards to the current aid program.
[14:51] {Threei} - The Greek program is not on track currently, Troika needs to decide whether there is full compliance. Without compliance, Greece will not get next aid tranche.
[14:51] {Threei} - Collateral solution will only be implemented if all EU nations agree.
[14:51] {Threei} - Need enforceable EU rules with automatic sanctions.
[14:53] {Threei} (CH) House Minority Whip Hoyer (D-MD): China is a currency manipulator
[14:53] {Threei} China: and you are a House Minority Whip Hoyer (D-MD)
[14:54] {dino} as if usa doesn't do same, or japan, swiss, etc
[14:55] {Threei} well, not through direct peg
[14:55] {dino} what do you call their govt's selling to lower their currency values
[14:56] {dino} happens every week
[14:56] {Threei} manipulation
[14:56] {Threei} lol
[14:56] {Threei} but they work to manipulate
[14:56] {Threei} while china doesn't want to do any work, they just say "our currency worth this much, period"
[14:57] {dino} china pegged to dollar
[14:57] {Threei} right
[15:20] {dino} prx
[15:22] {dino} sm l .75
[15:23] {dino} out .16, +.41
[15:23] {dino} damn
[15:35] {Threei} looking for one last play
[15:35] {Threei} I guess green close is not on menu today eh?
[15:35] {larisa} sigh
[15:35] {Threei} and larisa... may I consider this an overnight panic?
[15:35] {Threei} or over-weekend?
[15:35] {larisa} no
[15:36] {Threei} ok...
[15:36] {patience} i don't see capitulation...don't understand why not...but there you go
[15:40] {Threei} just don't tale it as positive sign for the market
[15:41] {Threei} most likely absence of capitulation means more selling ahead
[15:41] {patience} nope, i'm in cash waiting...did quite well this morning.....
[15:46] {Threei} Long Setup: TZAS .50 break
[15:46] {Threei} last scalp attempt
[15:46] {Threei} if holding above .35
[15:46] {Threei} OK... invalidated
[15:47] {Threei} TZA that was
[15:48] {nemo} I guess the question is do we end up on the day's highs
[15:49] {larisa} positive or noFing ! :)
[15:50] {Threei} well... then I guess we know the outcome :)
[15:51] {Threei} 134 points in 10 min? I am willing to bet against that
[15:51] {Threei} stranger things hapened of course but nonetheless
[15:51] {nemo} .18 to the high on the spy
[15:56] {Threei} (PO) Portgual Finance Minister Gaspar: notes country's fiscal situation is "grave"- Hiking tax rates is a necessity.
[15:56] {Threei} (EU) IMF agrees to a significantly lower initial estimate for EU banking sector capital needs
[15:56] {Threei} - Private sector expected to meet bank recapitalization needs.
[15:56] {Threei} - No plans for public support for banks beyond the baiout funds for Greece/Ireland/Portugal.
[16:00] {Threei} Ok guys
[16:00] {Threei} hjave a great evening, we are in for an interesting week
[16:00] {Threei} see you tomorrow
[16:01] {patience} ty vad, excellent day
[16:02] {larisa} bye :)
