Friday, September 23, 2011

Sep 23 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

From the market point of view, pretty much "skipped" day - wait-and-see position with both sides remaining non-committal. Somewhat boring day for us, positive but nothing to drum one's chest about. Overall, nice way to handle what was a very nervous and ugly week for the markets. One trade deserved a quick screenshot' clean sample of bottom-fishing, arrow marks the long entry:

Session Time: Fri Sep 23 00:00:00 2011
[08:57] {Threei}  (GE) Official German debt figures may be understated by as much as 5T (update) - German press
[08:57] {Threei}  - Public debt in Germany may be significantly higher than what is officially stated.
[08:57] {Threei}  - According to Professor of Economics Bernd Raffelhueschen at Freiburg University, in addition to the public debt of 2T, there may be additional liabilities of 5T due to shortfalls in the social security, pensions
[09:22] {Threei}  OK... whether we want it or not, probably will have to open at least one eye
[09:22] {larisa} gm :)
[09:22] {Threei}  larisa :)
[09:23] {larisa} vad :)
[09:25] {Threei}  watching FCX
[09:27] {Threei}  first trade half lot, morning volatility as always
[09:28] {Threei}  market attempts snapback rally
[09:28] {Threei}  with previous two days being almost perfect, let's be on conservative side today
[09:29] {Threei}  The We Wont Pay Movement Gathers Momentum in Greece
[09:29] {Threei}  good
[09:30] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .40 break half lot
[09:31] {Threei}  if stays under .55
[09:31] {Threei}  lol, invalidated before I finished typing
[09:31] {Threei}  how about this volatility

[09:34] {Threei}  crap... great time to lose connection
[09:35] {dino} gm
[09:35] {pragmatic} hmm, mirc misbehaving
[09:35] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:35] {Threei}  same here, not sure it was mirc
[09:36] {Threei}  could be central server
[09:36] {pragmatic} that is what I meant
[09:36] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .50 break
[09:36] {dino} nvda l .60
[09:36] {Threei}  if stays under .60
[09:37] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .10 break
[09:37] {Threei}  half lot
[09:38] {Threei}  if stays above .95
[09:38] {Threei}  target .40 - .45
[09:38] {Threei}  two partials
[09:45] {Threei} Long Setup:  HPQ  .20 break half lot
[09:45] {dino} cyou sm l .16 ave
[09:46] {Threei}  stop under .05
[09:46] {nemo} took .15
[09:47] {Threei}  no go
[09:47] {nemo} that was fun
[09:47] {Threei}  looks like rinse but...
[09:48] {Threei}  FCX, can't believe the alert got lost in disconnection
[09:48] {Threei}  look at the perfect cangaroo tail
[09:49] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  22 break half lot
[09:50] {Threei}  if stays above .85
[09:51] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:51] {Threei}  two partials
[09:57] {Threei}  back
[09:58] {dino} out nvda .72, +.12
[09:59] {dino} out cyou .76, +.60
[09:59] {Threei}  wtg
[09:59] {dino} ty
[10:01] {nemo} finl
[10:02] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .90 break
[10:03] {Threei}  if stays under 33 for scalpers, 33.05 day traders
[10:03] {Threei}  scalpers 1:1
[10:04] {Threei}  day traders 1:1
[10:04] {Threei}  1:2
[10:04] {Threei}  someone breathe a word so I know this one did go through
[10:04] {z} yes
[10:04] {nemo} went trhough
[10:04] {Threei}  whew
[10:06] {Threei}  1:3, over and out
[10:08] {Threei} Long Setup:  HPQ  .80 break half lot
[10:08] {Threei}  .65 stop
[10:08] {nemo} oops
[10:08] {Threei}  ?
[10:09] {nemo} already gone
[10:09] {Threei}  it's right here
[10:09] {nemo} now it's back
[10:09] {Threei}  pulled back for your entry pleasure
[10:09] {Threei}  only let's make a stop .69 now
[10:10] {dino} cyou sm l .21 ave
[10:13] {Threei}  HPQ becomes insufferable
[10:14] {Threei}  trailing stop to .74
[10:14] {Threei}  almost want to scratch it
[10:15] {Threei}  ese and patience throw stones at each other windows today or what
[10:16] {Threei}  out
[10:17] {Threei}  good out eh?
[10:21] {RonS} wow, hpq screwed someone...
[10:21] {Threei}  ?
[10:22] {RonS} spike down to 19.92
[10:22] {Threei}  huh... I don't see it
[10:22] {Threei}  I see a priont on level 1
[10:22] {Threei}  but not on chart
[10:22] {Threei}  weird
[10:24] {nemo} BATS exchange down
[10:26] {thomcbell} yhoo
[10:27] {Threei}  so, excitmement of new CEO was worth a whole day rally on HPQ, lol
[10:29] {dino} chk ; .50
[10:30] {Threei}  feels to me, if no new headlines coming, next move is down
[10:30] {Threei}  market looks heavy and uninspired
[10:31] {Threei}  watching TZA for entry
[10:31] {Threei}  half lot
[10:31] {Threei}  .50 break
[10:31] {Threei}  ifstays above .35
[10:32] {Threei}  in
[10:32] {Threei}  nah, no go
[10:33] {Threei}  SPY has another leg up in it it seems
[10:33] {Threei}  half lot was right way to try it
[10:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .50 break
[10:37] {dino} out mw .12, +.38
[10:38] {Threei}  gj
[10:38] {dino} ty
[10:39] {dino} out aaww .68, +.38
[10:39] {Threei}  I can't trade this symbol
[10:39] {Threei}  too sentimental
[10:39] {dino} ?
[10:39] {Threei}  aaww? :)
[10:40] {Threei}  stop under .40 FCX
[10:40] {dino} ahh
[10:40] {Threei}  neither ahh
[10:40] {Threei}  eeww maybe
[10:40] {Threei}  or eeck
[10:40] {dino} out chk .63, +.13
[10:41] {Threei}  say, if you were a company... how much would ou have paid your analyst for this analysis:
[10:41] {Threei}  Ford Motor Co Company sales analyst: Sales may not decline much further
[10:42] {Threei}  ugh TZA
[10:44] {Threei}  market is patterness at the moment
[10:44] {Threei}  waiting game
[10:46] {dino} 07 all green
[10:49] {dino} brk/b l .26
[10:49] {dino} sm
[11:06] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .50 break
[11:06] {Threei}  if stays under .60
[11:07] {nemo} vwap at .38
[11:08] {Threei}  invalidated anyway
[11:12] {Threei}  slow climb... great
[11:12] {Threei}  my least favorite market
[11:13] {dino} gaps above 11122, 2258, 1166
[11:22] {patience} good morning, have i missed much?
[11:22] {Threei}  not really
[11:25] {RonS} qotd:  The Mayans were wrong! Sign of the Apocalypse is when $FCX has a positive day! Say goodbye to your loved ones before it's too late!
[11:28] {Threei}  I dunno Ron... HOQ seems to be more reliable indicator
[11:28] {Threei}  KPQ
[11:33] {Threei}  isn't it fascinating... I can't type the symbol of this stock for the world of me
[11:34] {nemo} have a few shots...get rid of the dt's
[11:34] {Threei}  dt's?
[11:34] {nemo} delirium tremors
[11:34] {Threei}  oh
[11:34] {nemo} the shakes
[11:52] {nemo} iwm at pivot, vwap 08 below, spy .20 above vwap
[11:57] {thomcbell} dull tape
[11:57] {thomcbell} what do u think here vad?
[11:58] {Threei}  you are flattering me thinking I think
[11:58] {Threei}  it is dull... and slow, with no oace changes
[11:59] {Threei}  if you lok at pure price chart, FCX for instance, you'll see that double top and reversal looks clear
[11:59] {Threei}  but that's in retrospect only
[11:59] {Threei}  in reality, absence of pace changes makes it all but impossible to trade
[11:59] {thomcbell} right
[12:00] {Threei}  just one of those days that are not really favorable for trading
[12:00] {Threei}  kind of normal after two very hectic days
[12:03] {Threei}  my hope is, closer to eod people will want to define how they go into the weekend
[12:04] {Threei}  and that will lead to something readable
[12:10] {nemo} pot
[12:11] {nemo}
[12:14] {RonS} MOS - Price Fixing dismissed
[12:37] {dino}  zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
[12:38] {Threei}  SLW collapse
[12:46] {Threei}  lookie here guys
[12:47] {Threei}  analogy with 1929, by Cashin
[12:47] {Threei}  The classic Thursday/Monday syndrome starts with the kind of action we saw yesterday. The markets open under pressure and selling accelerates in swelling volume. By early afternoon, there is a virtual stampede of selling. Then, later in the session, stocks stabilize a bit based on some reassurance.
[12:47] {dino} spike
[12:47] {Threei}  so far, looks like yesterday, right?
[12:47] {Threei}  now:
[12:47] {Threei}  The action on Friday (and Saturday in the case of 1929) is uneven, often ending choppily steady or somewhat weaker.
[12:47] {Threei}  so far, looks like today, right?
[12:48] {Threei}  and:
[12:48] {Threei}  Then on Monday, the trapdoor opens with liquidation and margin calls bringing tsunamis of selling.
[12:48] {Threei}  if nothing else, interesting historic parallel
[12:48] {dino} gut bet, close +100 today, c;ose +300 monday
[12:48] {Threei}  this spike is caused by this nonsenese headline:
[12:49] {Threei}  (GR) EU is said to be planning Greek debt buyback program open to all debt instruments and all investors - financial press
[12:49] {Threei}  idiots
[12:50] {Threei}  also:
[12:50] {Threei}  (GR) EU"s Barnier: It is possible for Greece to avoid default scenario; aiming to cut down the role of ratings agencies
[12:50] {Threei}  yeah, rating angencies is a problem
[12:50] {Threei}  go ahead and break your thermometer when it shows fever
[12:55] {Threei}  dino... trying to try on your gut feel... quite possible about today,
[12:55] {Threei}  buit when it comes to monday, my gut refuses to give any signal
[12:55] {Threei}  says, wait to see what happens over the weekend,
[12:56] {Threei}  with G7/G20/EU/EMU/AllOtherAbbreviations speaking
[12:58] {dino} agree its a coin toss, but with -900 pts in two days, looking for upside
[13:01] {Threei}  my gut feels a bit differently
[13:01] {Threei}  kind of:
[13:01] {Threei}  if market was ready to stage counter-rally,
[13:01] {Threei}  we would have seen much more decisive action today
[13:02] {Threei}  this reluctance doesn't bode well
[13:02] {Threei}  a lot of fear is around still,
[13:02] {Threei}  look how that headline failed to provide anything beyond 3 min of upward
[13:04] {dino} maybe, but my gut says up
[13:05] {Threei}  cool
[13:06] {Threei}  monday will be tagged as battle of the Guts
[13:06] {dino} lol
[13:07] {Threei}  wow SLW
[13:07] {Threei}  bounce time soon
[13:08] {dino} slv -4+
[13:08] {dino} agq -45
[13:09] {dino} hmmmm maybe i'm way off and today we close -100
[13:09] {dino} brb
[13:10] {nemo} gdx coming into Yearly Pivot, may see a bounce there for SLW
[13:15] {nemo} anybody notice on the multi-time frame charts where spy bottomed yesterday?
[13:16] {nemo} anybody notice where it topped out so far today?
[13:17] {patience} are these skill testing questions nemo?  on a friday...not a hope  :)
[13:18] {nemo} not if you call looking at a chart I provided a skill
[13:27] {dino} chk l .38
[13:28] {Threei}  SLW, one last leg down I think, befor it becomes finally bounce-ready
[13:31] {dino} wow, i did not realize the s/p is -18% from july highs
[13:32] {nemo} mercy
[13:32] {dino} 1355-1114
[13:39] {nemo} big cup and handle forming on the 15 minute spy
[13:39] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .65 break
[13:39] {Threei}  half lot let's do OK?
[13:40] {Threei}  if holding above .50
[13:41] {nemo} two sided I think
[13:41] {dino} out chk .52, +.14
[13:44] {Threei}  ok SLW... have spine?
[13:45] {Threei}  move your behind finally
[13:45] {nemo} market gonna' rip
[13:46] {Threei}  good boy, give us a few cents more
[13:46] {nemo} ehhh...wussed at the roof
[13:46] {Threei}  ok, first partial here
[13:46] {Threei}  1:1
[13:47] {Threei}  1:2
[13:47] {Threei}  told ya we will gte a good one when dust settles
[13:50] {Threei}  1:3 but without me
[13:50] {Threei}  oh well
[13:50] {Threei}  now, look at the chart and see where we got this thing
[13:50] {Threei}  isn't it perfect?
[13:53] {Threei}  yet no one is peaking to me...
[13:53] {Threei}  speaking
[13:53] {z} nice call, got me to green :)
[13:53] {Threei}  cool :)
[13:53] {Threei}  nice patience
[13:54] {Threei}  don't overtrade now, go only for the best of the best trades, and most of all:
[13:54] {Threei}  make sure that your stops and position sizes are calculated so you do NOT go home negative
[13:54] {Threei}  breakeven is worst case scenario
[13:54] {Threei}  I mean, it's Friday,
[13:55] {Threei}  your weekend mood is important
[13:55] {Threei}  negative Monday, whatever - whole week ahead to fix it
[13:55] {z} true T, good advice, thx
[13:55] {Threei}  negative Friday, well... weekend should be relaxing and pleasant
[13:56] {Threei}  fit trading as natural part in your life, so it doesn't become an aggravating experience
[13:56] {z} small shares + tight stops rest of way
[13:57] {dino} meli sm l ave .17
[14:24] {dino} stopped
[14:26] {nemo} .11 long tna?
[14:28] {nemo} spy might have to tag vwap first at .10
[14:32] {nemo} sfsg
[14:35] {dino} las t try meli sm l .09
[14:54] {dino} cern
[15:22] {nemo} slw
[15:23] {patience} still in it
[15:30] {dino}  out meli .29, +.20
[15:30] {patience} nice
[15:30] {dino} calling it a week, thx all
[15:30] {patience} have a good one
[15:30] {dino} u2
[15:31] {Threei}  take care dino
[15:42] {Threei}  from the daily chart point of view, pretty much "skipped day"
[15:42] {Threei}  market is in wait-and-see mode
[15:49] {thomcbell} so much for rrc
[15:50] {patience} ty vad, a very interesting week
[15:53] {Threei}  thank you all
[15:53] {Threei}  have a great weekend, see you Monday for another rather interesting week :)