Monday, October 10, 2011

Oct 10 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

Nice start to the week, especially considering that big gap up days don't really constitute our trading environment. 5 trades, 4 wins. No complaints. 

Session Time: Mon Oct 10 00:00:00 2011
[08:24] {nemo} spy hit .02 above the yearly pivot this morning and then retraced
[09:10] {Threei}  sooo... today NYSE is to be hacked, around afterrnoon, right?
[09:11] {nemo} oh yeah, forgot about that
[09:14] {Threei}  I can't shake off feeling that this rally is nothing but denial
[09:29] {Threei}  I think let's skip opening
[09:29] {larisa} gm :)
[09:29] {Threei}  first playes are questionable lately
[09:29] {Threei}  larisa :)
[09:29] {nemo} slw short
[09:29] {Threei}  then things get more stable and we find our plays
[09:31] {Threei}  watching FCX for half lot short
[09:31] {Threei}  ummm
[09:31] {Threei}  lol
[09:33] {nemo} spy regained the price channel from last week 50 sma just about 118
[09:34] {nemo} IWM hit resistance at monthly pivot
[09:34] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLV  .15 break
[09:34] {nemo} slv or slw
[09:34] {Threei}  if stays above .05
[09:35] {Threei}  V
[09:37] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:37] {Threei}  2 partials
[09:38] {Threei}  1:1
[09:38] {Threei}  standard procedure, half out and stop to under b/e
[09:41] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .70 break
[09:41] {Threei}  half lot
[09:41] {Threei}  stop above .85
[09:41] {Threei}  target about .30
[09:44] {Threei}  out second half SLV
[09:44] {Threei}  FCX 1:1
[09:45] {z} nice calls 3i, thx.
[09:45] {Threei}  1:2
[09:45] {Threei}  welcome
[09:45] {Threei}  out .35
[09:49] {Threei} Short Setup: SLV  31 break
[09:50] {Threei}  if stays under .10
[09:51] {Threei}  invalidated but still on radar for reestablishment
[09:52] {Threei}  valid again
[09:54] {Threei}  stop .13
[09:57] {nemo} gap and grind
[09:57] {Threei}  my least favorable environment
[09:57] {Threei}  well, aside of Jupiter atmosphere
[10:03] {swill} at least I'm green so far
[10:03] {nemo} we'll call you kermit
[10:04] {Threei}  lemme look at myself in the mirror
[10:04] {nemo} you'll turn to stone
[10:04] {swill} lol
[10:04] {Threei}  hehe
[10:09] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  24 brealk
[10:09] {Threei}  stop above .10
[10:11] {Threei}  (IR) Ireland Deputy Prime Minister: It would be difficult for the EU treaty to be changed
[10:11] {Threei}  - Reminder: Earlier reports circulated that Germany and France were evaluating possible changes in the EU treaty
[10:20] {Threei}  question of these days,
[10:20] {Threei}  I'd even say THE question:
[10:21] {Threei}  was a market drop a trap for bears, or is this climb is a trap for bulls?
[10:21] {Threei}  1L1 RIMM
[10:21] {Threei}  1:1
[10:22] {Threei}  so far, 3 out of 4
[10:22] {Threei}  not bad for a large gap up day
[10:22] {swill} the fish don;t have a chance
[10:22] {nemo} I haven't even taken a trade yet..would have to do a support play
[10:22] {Threei}  no, not in this barrel
[10:23] {Threei}  1:2
[10:23] {swill} lol
[10:23] {Threei}  notice RIMM does that against market trend
[10:25] {swill} interesting
[10:25] {Threei}  one nterestibg thing about this chart:
[10:26] {Threei}  if I looked at it a few mon earlier, I'd have called .05 break,
[10:26] {Threei}  because it was a failed C&H
[10:26] {swill} I missed that
[10:26] {Threei}  see the cup from 9:33 to 9:56,
[10:27] {Threei}  handel bottomed at .05 at 9:59
[10:27] {Threei}  handle
[10:27] {Threei}  proce never retested the rim at .25
[10:27] {Threei}  and then lost handle support
[10:27] {Threei}  which was perfect short entry
[10:28] {Threei}  not much diference price wise, but it would have been a very aestetically pleasing clean entry
[10:31] {swill} as nemo says, good enough for government work
[10:32] {nemo} heheheh, spy at trend
[10:34] {nemo} lvs
[10:34] {nemo} sorry little late
[10:37] {swill} good job vad, thank you
[10:40] {Threei}  welcome sir
[10:41] {swill} lol. I'll get the hang of this
[10:42] {thomcbell} Vad what do u show for vwap on spy?
[10:42] {Threei}  wrong guy to ask
[10:42] {thomcbell} nemo
[10:42] {thomcbell} bring it
[10:42] {Threei}  nemo is vwap expert
[10:43] {Threei}  to me vwap is misspelled wasp, and I syart looking for the threat of bing stung when hear it
[10:46] {Threei}  (US) House Rep Bachus (R-AL): Govt may continue to have a role in the mortgage market in the future, but the private market must take a larger role than it has in the past
[10:46] {Threei}  heh
[10:46] {Threei}  nothing teaches them
[10:52] {ese} good morning...... coming to you from not so sunny north vancouver island
[10:53] {Threei}  ese!!
[10:53] {ese} bizzare week last week.......
[10:53] {nemo} fitting for you
[10:53] {ese} my school blows up thursday and were outta work on friday
[10:53] {Threei}  we thought it was yopu
[10:54] {ese} it was......
[10:54] {Threei}  to break free from school and be able to tarde
[10:54] {nemo} hey ese, you ever see the youtube video of Neil Peart on Letterman? or his tribute to Buddy Rich?
[10:54] {ese} no....send me the link
[10:55] {ese} vad ...some idiot went digging before he looked at the electrical schematics.......pounded a metal post into the ground and cut through a 10 to 20 thousand volt cable
[10:56] {nemo} is he dead?
[10:56] {Threei}  no... darwin was wrong
[10:56] {nemo} bummer
[10:56] {ese} no........doctors can't explain it....was in hospital
[10:56] {Threei}  we had fantastic trading week, ese
[10:56] {Threei}  and started this one well
[10:57] {ese} wish i could have been there.......but this new building and schedule is making my trading very sporadic
[10:58] {ese} who knows what the hell is going to happen tomorrow without power
[10:58] {Threei}  I tried to send patience, swill or pragmatic to throw stones in your window
[10:58] {Threei}  but they are all so "ah, that would be against the law, wouldn't it"
[10:58] {ese} lol
[10:59] {Threei}  as if fun can be lawful
[10:59] {ese} eggzactilly
[10:59] {swill} this is fun, shat do you mean
[11:00] {swill} what
[11:00] {Threei}  yes but not as much fun as throwing stones in the windows...
[11:00] {swill} lol
[11:01] {Threei}  so, read this:
[11:01] {Threei}  - Investors are diving head first into risk this morning as major equity indices rack up close to 3% gains in the first hour of trading. Once again the Europeans are promising another "comprehensive solution" to the euro zone debt crisis, with details to arrive later this month.
[11:01] {ese} the power surge blew up something in the new electrical room and sent flames shooting 20 to 40 feet in the air.......but was oddly contained in the room (new room with one window) all cement
[11:01] {Threei}  two points I must make here
[11:02] {Threei}  1. this market is, as I said before, is an addict waiting for its next fix of a bailout
[11:02] {Threei}  2. this rally is based on denial
[11:03] {nemo} what'll be interesting is if this Wall Street sitin expands to the point that people just decide they're not going to pay their debts
[11:03] {nemo} that's the little seed that could grow
[11:04] {ese} am outta here... might catch you all later this morning will be on the road in 30min.......2 and a 1/2 hour drive back to victoria....cya
[11:04] {Threei}  take care ese, drive safely
[11:05] {ese} indeed.......don't plan on hitting any electrical cables
[11:05] {swill} thanks for the laughs
[11:09] {swill} vad, what about the old adage, the market climbs a wall of worry, I guess that's denial, perhaps
[11:09] {Threei}  no
[11:09] {Threei}  it's a different situation a bit
[11:09] {swill} ok
[11:10] {Threei}  climbing the wall of worry is a very valid,
[11:10] {Threei}  but it refers to a situation where troubles are largely resolved or about to, and it's not obvious to regular people yet
[11:11] {Threei}  so, while they still live in fear of troubles, market starts discuounting future relief
[11:11] {swill} like smart money?
[11:11] {Threei}  right'
[11:11] {Threei}  today's situation looks very different to me
[11:11] {Threei}  more like:
[11:12] {Threei}  real troubles are here and in the future, but market lives in denial, pretending there is easy eay to solve it
[11:13] {swill} I see
[11:13] {swill} funny way to run finances
[11:13] {nemo} standard way humans go through life
[11:14] {Threei}  well, no one "runs" them at the moment
[11:14] {Threei}  they run wild
[11:14] {swill} lol
[11:30] {swill} c and h slv?
[11:31] {Threei}  .30 break... yeah
[12:16] {swill} Vad, how are the picture coming?
[12:16] {swill} pictures
[12:17] {Threei}  recovering them from weekend computer troublesa
[12:18] {Threei}  thankfully, there are programs allowing to restore deleted photos right from the memory card
[12:19] {swill} saving grace
[12:20] {Threei}  run into nasty crash this weekend, still don't know what caused it
[12:22] {swill} didn't like crashes mutch
[12:29] {Threei}  dino!
[12:30] {dino} :D
[12:31] {Threei}  how was it?
[12:31] {dino} i missed quite the rally i see. getting to resistance areas again, or going for upper gaps?
[12:32] {Threei}  gaps so far... tomorrow, who knows
[12:32] {Threei}  situation is very fluid
[12:32] {dino} great trip as always. lots of golf, too much tequila and beer
[12:32] {Threei}  :)
[12:32] {Threei}  look at these two fresh headlines to evaluate how deep the cracks are in euroland:
[12:32] {Threei}  (EU) ECB is said to oppose German efforts to alter the July 21st summit agreements - financial press ***Reminder: On Oct 9th, German Fin Min Schaeuble warned that the EU may have underestimated required haircut for Greece in July when agreement was reached on 21% adjustment. This came after reports late last week that parts of the July 21st agreement that could be modified include interest rates and maturities, as well as size of haircuts.
[12:33] {Threei}  (EU) ECB's Nowotny: The priority is implementing the current Greek package, doubts it is a good idea to propose new arrangements for Greece
[12:33] {Threei}  - Pledges that the EFSF will not be leveraged with ECB funds.
[12:33] {Threei}  this kind of things coming from there makes me think market is in total denial, thinking that some solution is going to emerge soon
[12:33] {Threei}  there is no solution
[12:34] {Threei}  it's crash now or rash later, with bigger debt
[12:34] {Threei}  mrket just bets on crash later
[12:34] {dino} hmmmm, but what do you make of it, i was news silent all week. what gets me are the lower gaps
[12:36] {Threei}  anyway, we had great trading week
[12:36] {dino} this market has been gap filling w/lower highs and lower lows like mad
[12:37] {dino} glad to hear that
[12:37] {Threei}  whistler recharged me
[12:38] {dino} even better to hear
[12:41] {swill} Vad, make a recharge every weekend
[12:43] {Threei}  hmmm
[12:43] {Threei}  I'd be happy to but I'd have to find one more income stream {G}
[12:44] {swill} roger that
[12:45] {nemo} amazing, except for a brief excursion to the R3, spy been riding just under the Jul'10 50% retracement
[12:45] {Threei}  so, use of cellphones durinbg driving is prohibited in BC
[12:46] {nemo} even hands free?
[12:46] {Threei}  they just published top ten excuses people give when stopped
[12:46] {Threei}  no, handsfreee is fine'
[12:46] {Threei}  to me tis one takes the cherry:
[12:46] {Threei}  I wasnt using it  I just like to hold it.
[12:47] {swill} i love it
[12:47] {Threei}  and close second:
[12:47] {Threei}  Sorry officer, I didnt see you trying to pull me over because I was on my phone.
[12:48] {swill} wife is laughing too
[12:52] {swill} C and handles failing today
[12:55] {dino} 9/21 highs before big drop 11447, 2321, 1206 imo, big areas
[13:24] {Threei}  SLV?
[13:24] {Threei}  what the deuce has happened there
[13:26] {Threei}  no news
[13:27] {dino} hod
[13:28] {z} vad, isn't there some vote in eurpoe at 2pm regarding efsf plan?  thought i heard something on news earlier...
[13:28] {Threei}  some of smaller countries
[13:28] {z} ah ok, thx.
[13:29] {dino} i think the 18th is the big vote
[13:33] {swill} the market isn't having  a "market reality moment" is it
[13:34] {Threei}  well, right now denial is its reality :)
[13:34] {Threei}  see, the thing with the markets from trader's point of view is, they are very existential
[13:35] {Threei}  whatever happens is the reality you as atrader gotta deal with
[13:38] {swill} just getting my head around that
[13:40] {swill} and the current denial if false hope?
[13:40] {Threei}  well, false in a long run, as no new bailout will change anything,
[13:40] {Threei}  but ikn a short run, bailout will prop the market
[13:41] {Threei}  and that's what current buyers are counting on
[13:41] {Threei}  in fact it's a political bet rather than financial right niow
[13:41] {Threei}  bet that politicians will push this thing through
[13:43] {swill} I guess the public is pushing the polititions, don't know
[13:44] {Threei}  trying....
[13:44] {Threei}  in many places it's public vs politicians right now
[13:44] {Threei}  public wants no bailouts (well, at least thinking part of it),
[13:44] {Threei}  politians do
[13:47] {swill} glad I'm a scalper
[13:51] {swill} db on slv?
[13:51] {Threei}  way too narrow... not tradeable, IMO
[13:52] {swill} k
[13:58] {Threei}  egyptian thugs to christians:
[13:58] {Threei}  you have a choice, convert to islam or die
[13:58] {Threei}  and this is democratic revolution we supported? pushed out bad bad mubarak?
[14:06] {dino} serious?
[14:07] {nemo} spy at bottom trend channel
[14:08] {nemo} vap .65
[14:08] {Threei}  yes dino
[14:08] {dino} religion is ruining the world
[14:09] {nemo} what's new
[14:10] {nemo} holding channel
[14:26] {nemo}
[14:26] {Threei}  hehe
[14:26] {Threei}  that's BC for you
[14:27] {nemo} too funny...and the Italian parliament used to have a porn star in it
[14:40] {dino} this market hasn't moved 20 pts since i got in
[14:40] {Threei}  you paralyzed it
[14:41] {Threei}  but worry not
[14:41] {Threei}  the swings are incredible
[14:41] {dino} no thanks necessary
[14:41] {Threei}  hehe
[14:43] {thomcbell} interesting to me how the 10 min trin is trending nicely -
[14:43] {thomcbell} feels up at some point
[14:56] {Threei}
[14:56] {Threei}  (SL) Slovakia ruling coalition member Bugar (Most-Hid Party) no long expects to reach an agreement within the coalition on EFSF expansion - interview- Note: Earlier the ruling party ended negotiations on the EFSF deal with its SAS junior coalition partner without any agreement, and are expected to continue negotiations in the morning tommorow.
[15:00] {nemo} watch .65 level spy
[15:14] {Threei}  ok... let's see if we can increase the count
[15:14] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .90 break
[15:15] {Threei}  aggressive entry might be interesting
[15:15] {Threei}  around here
[15:18] {Threei}  cool beans... .97 was a good idea
[15:18] {Threei}  4 cents risk
[15:24] {swill} beauty
[15:24] {Threei}  aion't it beauty
[15:24] {Threei}  out
[15:24] {z} nice one 3i
[15:24] {Threei}  :)
[15:24] {Threei}  love aggressive entries
[15:25] {Threei}  especially in combination with conservative trading overall: we did 4 trades during morning activity, sat out a.. the period of a long stall, and sprang back to action when market returned to activity
[15:25] {Threei}  are we good or what
[15:26] {swill} at a boy
[15:26] {Threei}  yeah, but see nemo reminding me that patting myself on a back leads to dislocated shoulder
[15:27] {swill} lol
[15:27] {swill} better than a poke in the eye
[15:28] {Threei}  that would be my preference too
[15:46] {Threei}  (EU) ECB's Kranjec (Slovakia): Expecting the possibility of a Greece debt restructuring, but not a default
[15:46] {Threei}  buddy... wake up
[15:47] {Threei}  for all practical intentes and purposes, Greece HAS defaulted
[15:47] {Threei}  all you have left to doscuss is who takes the brunt, i what time and and to what degree
[15:49] {Threei}  ok guysd, no more trades today
[15:49] {Threei}  thank you all
[15:49] {Threei}  have a great evening
[15:49] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:49] {z} cya thx 3i
[15:50] {nemo} another gap up tomorrow
[15:53] {dino} lol, as if restructuring w/.21-.50% hit is not defaulting
[15:53] {Threei}  yeah, lol
[15:53] {Threei}  delusional folks
[15:54] {dino} just makes politicians sound better
[15:55] {Threei}  and bitter pill taste... no, still bitter