Thursday, October 20, 2011

Oct 20 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

Another nicely profitable but not very active day, 3 nice wins out of 4 trades. Aside of that, make sure to read this article; discussion in the room triggered an idea to put this frequently discussed topic in writing.

Session Time: Thu Oct 20 00:00:00 2011
[08:06] {cipher} morning
[08:06] {Threei}  morning cipher... insomnia here, what's your excuse?
[08:06] {cipher} I'm an early riser
[08:07] {cipher} btw got the package yesterday, thanks!
[08:07] {Threei}  :)
[08:30] {Threei}  *(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 403K V 400KE;
[08:31] {Threei}  CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.719M V 3.69ME
[08:31] {Threei}  - Prior Initial Claims revised higher from 404K to 409K
[08:31] {Threei}  - Prior Continuing Claims higher from 3.67M to 3.69M
[09:15] {Threei}  (EU) German govt said to consider delaying the Oct 23 EU summit if necessary to give more time to negotiate - German press
[09:15] {Threei}  **REMINDER: yesterday reports said intensive talks were still ongoing, particularly between the French and German leaders with some sticking points still impeding a deal. French Pres Sarkozy flew to Frankfort yesterday afternoon for an unscheduled meeting with Merkel and other senior EU officials.
[09:17] {dino} gm all
[09:17] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:18] {dino} sheesh they've been talking since june
[09:18] {swill} :)morning
[09:18] {Threei}  well, they like talking... and each summit is a lot of wine and cheese
[09:18] {Threei}  swill :)
[09:22] {Threei}  Deutsche Bank AG Co-CEO Fitschen: to fight Tobin tax by passing on costs to customers
[09:22] {Threei}  sure thing... as if it was hard to predict
[09:24] {Threei}  this gap up looks destined to be faded
[09:25] {Threei}  and FCX begs to be a first short target
[09:27] {Threei}  with copper trading much lower, FCX should follow
[09:27] {Threei}  remember, it's a half lot play at the open
[09:27] {nemo} yeah, like transaction costs won't be passed on dumb bastards
[09:27] {Threei}  yeah
[09:28] {nemo} taxpayers don't realize they are the only taxpayers
[09:28] {Threei}  ironically enough, those same dumb ones are likely to embrace the idea of this tax
[09:28] {nemo} distribution of intelligence across the bell curve
[09:29] {Threei}  hehe
[09:29] {nemo} the common "herd" of man
[09:29] {nemo} tempted to take tna long here
[09:30] {nemo} shulda
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .40 break
[09:31] {Threei}  if stays under .55
[09:32] {Threei}  nope
[09:33] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .20 break
[09:34] {Threei}  if stays under .30
[09:35] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:35] {Threei}  FCX is getting ahead of itself
[09:36] {Threei}  no clear signal for reversal
[09:38] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .40 break half lot
[09:38] {RonS} gm...philly fed report top of hour
[09:38] {Threei}  .25 stop
[09:38] {Threei}  .30 for scalpers
[09:39] {Threei}  but worth a shot for more
[09:39] {Threei}  IMO
[09:39] {nemo} GMCR continuing to get killed
[09:39] {Threei}  scalpers 1:1
[09:39] {Threei}  day traders 1:1
[09:39] {Threei}  stop to .35 for balance
[09:39] {Threei}  1:2, out
[09:40] {Threei}  nice and easy
[09:50] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  35 break
[09:51] {Threei}  stop above .10 and .15
[09:51] {Threei}  target about 34.60
[09:51] {Threei}  maybe more
[09:51] {Threei}  scalpers 1:1
[09:51] {Threei}  day traders 1:1
[09:53] {Threei}  1:2
[09:53] {cipher} awesome thx!
[09:53] {Threei}  :)
[09:54] {cipher} looks strong and yed drops like a rock
[09:54] {nemo} fcx bounced at vwap
[09:54] {Threei}  .65 you mean?
[09:54] {Threei}  .68
[09:58] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .90 break
[09:58] {nemo} numbers in 2
[09:58] {Threei}  stop is obvious, above 35
[09:59] {Threei}  ty, forgot about those
[09:59] {Threei}  with half lot, willing to let it happen either way
[10:00] {Threei}  okay
[10:00] {Threei}  mixed bag
[10:00] {Threei}  good Phil fed
[10:00] {Threei}  bad confidence
[10:01] {Threei}  flar leading
[10:01] {Threei}  flat
[10:01] {Threei}  nut the scale is mind boggling, look:
[10:01] {Threei}  *(US) OCT PHILADELPHIA FED: +8.7 V -9.6E
[10:01] {Threei}  how on earth can estimate be that far off??
[10:02] {cipher} shorted the spike on FCX
[10:02] {Threei}  that's gutsy
[10:02] {cipher} covered at .10 +27
[10:02] {cipher} half lot
[10:03] {cipher} felt like euforia to me
[10:03] {Threei}  nice... but be careful with this kind of trades, they offer huge potential, and the trade-off is... :)
[10:03] {nemo} BOHICA!!!
[10:04] {cipher} ok
[10:04] {cipher} i'll behave
[10:04] {Threei}  lol
[10:04] {cipher} already up on the day
[10:05] {cipher} was testing order entry pre market and got lucky
[10:05] {Threei}  let me offer you advice on how to manage the day from this point on
[10:05] {Threei}  determine the minimum profit you go home today with;
[10:06] {Threei}  measure your position sizes and stops in a way that you never go under that;
[10:06] {Threei}  if you hit that level, stop trading for the day, switch to paper
[10:06] {Threei}  if you make more, trail your profit limit up by half of new profit
[10:06] {cipher} thx, excellent advice 3i
[10:06] {Threei}  kind of trailing stop on your account
[10:07] {cipher} I need to learn all these tricks :-)
[10:07] {Threei}  this is great way to make sure you preserve profits, give them chance to increase and never find yourelf in that extremely frustrating situation:
[10:07] {thomcbell} pretty decent pivot fail there on spy
[10:08] {nemo} 120.90 is WPP
[10:08] {Threei}  I made such nice money in the morning, then overextended myself, lost it all, tried to get it back and eneded in red
[10:08] {thomcbell} 121.67
[10:08] {thomcbell} 121.67 is pivot based on yest range
[10:09] {Threei}  in facvt, this topic surfaces often enough to write a blog post on it
[10:09] {cipher} yes I know what you mean - it's called human psychology
[10:09] {nemo} I have .43
[10:09] {Threei}  so I could just give a link instead of typing it
[10:09] {Threei}  {--- conforming to my own laziness
[10:09] {cipher} i'll take it if u have it handy
[10:16] {nemo} short covering in GMCR
[10:20] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .30 break
[10:21] {Threei}  stop has two versions again, .40 and .45
[10:21] {Threei}  let's trail to it .41 for everyone now
[10:22] {Threei}  tested .40 and retreated, good reason to cut down risk
[10:22] {Threei}  come on... just couple cents to 1:1?
[10:23] {Threei}  OK
[10:23] {Threei}  1:1
[10:24] {Threei}  1:2, out
[10:24] {Threei}  that's 3 out of 4
[10:24] {Threei}  me happy
[10:26] {Threei}  anyone shares that feeling?
[10:26] {Threei}  or I can go home?
[10:27] {cipher} excellent calls 3i
[10:27] {Threei}  ty
[10:28] {Threei}  I have my moments, although they become further apart {G}
[10:28] {cipher} i bought SLW by mistake when trying to cover
[10:29] {cipher} +.18 extra bonus
[10:29] {Threei}  well... that worked too, lol
[10:29] {Threei}  some days are likel that
[10:31] {thomcbell} dont count on it
[10:36] {Threei}  lol
[10:36] {Threei}  (GR) IMF Spokesperson: There are no divergences between IMF, the EU and the ECB over the sustainability of Greece's debt
[10:36] {Threei}  meaning, all three agree it's unsustaiable?
[10:37] {RonS} w/ your indulgence 3i... everyone over the age of 18 should listen to it:
[10:39] {RonS} try again...
[10:43] {RonS} penn blood
[10:44] {nemo} grinding upward trend on dia and spy
[10:45] {RonS} Penn Gaming getting pasted during the ccal - Todd Jordan strikes again
[10:46] {Threei}  I agree ron
[10:46] {Threei}  good exchange
[10:46] {Threei}  who posted this?
[10:47] {RonS} wish i had the power to make this go viral...
[10:47] {dino} wynn's good, he gets it
[10:47] {Threei}  I think it was posted on twitter
[10:48] {Threei}  I didn't watch it then, but remember the reference to Wynn
[10:48] {nemo} yes
[10:49] {RonS} this is the only verbal post i have seen...the other reports have been written and not as impactful
[10:50] {RonS} penn v sm l .86
[10:53] {Threei}  British Columbia has huge practice for the big earthquake citizen response today... Isay they are playing with fire by teaasing gods :)
[10:54] {RonS} out penn 36.90 +1.04
[10:56] {Threei}  wtg
[10:56] {RonS} ty
[10:57] {Threei}  thomd... missed beautiful morning :(
[10:57] {dino} gj ron
[10:59] {swill} beautiful. ty
[11:00] {RonS} careful swill...i am not dino....
[11:00] {swill} right
[11:01] {RonS} just a dino wannabe...
[11:01] {RonS} :)
[11:02] {Threei}  we all are something wannabees
[11:02] {Threei}  larisa for instance is dolphin wannabe
[11:02] {dino} nvda?
[11:03] {Threei}  don't see anything ffresh on it
[11:03] {RonS} leaders looking amzn, etc right now
[11:03] {dino} 2294 filled
[11:04] {dino} next down 11103, 2202, 1155
[11:05] {RonS} euro down a penny since open...italian yields marching higher
[11:06] {RonS} .vix hod
[11:08] {dino} nvda sm l .95
[11:10] {cipher} PENN S SM .90
[11:12] {cipher} coverd 36.01 +.89
[11:12] {RonS} wow...gj
[11:12] {cipher} wow
[11:12] {cipher} beginners luck
[11:13] {Threei}  well, you deal in extremely volatile stock with huge spread
[11:13] {Threei}  only natural that it produces huge mives
[11:13] {Threei}  good setup
[11:13] {dino} gj
[11:13] {Threei}  trail that stop on your account
[11:14] {RonS} anyone heard of/use gunnar computer eyeglasses?
[11:15] {nemo} I use them
[11:15] {RonS} like 'em? eye dr suggested them....oakley guys who broke off and just sold biz to carl zeiss...
[11:16] {nemo} yes
[11:16] {RonS} thanks
[11:16] {nemo} Got mine off ebay for $35
[11:17] {RonS} the bunny frame?
[11:17] {dino} lol
[11:18] {Threei}  they have magnification?
[11:18] {RonS} slight
[11:18] {RonS} yellow tinted to reduce glate
[11:18] {RonS} glare
[11:20] {dino} apkt sm l .50, stop lod
[11:21] {Threei}  I'd have to go with crystaline version
[11:21] {cipher} l penn sm .50
[11:22] {cipher} out 36 +.50
[11:23] {Threei}  ok cipher stop this... you gotta leave some m oney in the market for other players
[11:23] {cipher} sorry
[11:23] {Threei}  otherwise none will come out to play with you tomorrow
[11:23] {dino} you keep going cipher
[11:26] {dino} nxpi sm l .89
[11:26] {cipher} ok record day today, quitting while ahead
[11:26] {cipher} thanks all c u tomorrow
[11:28] {dino} wtg
[11:28] {Threei}  wtg
[11:33] {RonS} sm l plcm .90
[11:39] {RonS} out plcm .18  +.28
[11:39] {Threei}  nice
[11:39] {Threei}  why are we looking at Lybian streets at every TV channel in existence?
[11:40] {RonS} ...bacause the greeks are boring?
[11:40] {RonS} because
[11:40] {Threei}  oh
[11:40] {RonS} ...everyone like camels?
[11:40] {RonS} likes
[11:41] {Threei}  hmmm... count me out
[11:48] {nemo} dcc ron
[11:53] {dino}  out nvda .27, +.32
[11:54] {RonS} gj
[11:54] {dino} thx
[11:57] {Threei}  rapid negative growth is coming
[11:58] {RonS} good to know, george...
[11:59] {nemo} constanza?
[12:00] {Threei}  :)
[12:03] {RonS} in orwell...
[12:04] {dino} out apkt .80, +.30
[12:07] {RonS} lol...seal of approval, eh?:  Venezuela's Chavez says cancer tests in Cuba showed no malignant cells left in his body
[12:08] {Threei}
[12:09] {Threei}  seal of approval before I tweet it?
[12:09] {RonS} the failure?
[12:09] {Threei}  :)
[12:13] {RonS} writeup on this topic you have done so thinking your incentive of bigger audience is making you a better writer...congrats
[12:14] {Threei}  thank you
[12:14] {dino} hbio
[12:14] {Threei}  tweeting
[12:15] {Threei}  who can help make it viral, please do
[12:19] {Threei}  if need a post for retweet, it's at!/RealityTrader/status/127055135728865280
[12:19] {RonS} HBIO up 9% on buyout rumors
[12:21] {Threei}  (EU) European officials are said to be considering a second summit meeting next week to discuss technical details of leveraging EFSF and private sector haircuts on Greek debt - financial press
[12:21] {Threei}  **REMINDER: reports today confirmed the EU summit will go ahead as planned on Oct 23, shooting down a report in the German press that said it might be delayed due to a lack of agreement on implementation issues. German Chancellor Merkel canceled a parliamentary speech on Friday because of the lack of EFSF details. The G20 has demanded that Europe have a final plan for rescuing the euro zone ready by the Cannes G20 leadership summit on Nov 3-4.
[12:21] {Threei}  (GR) A Greece ruling party member intends to vote against the labor portion of the austerity program
[12:21] {Threei}  one?
[12:22] {Threei}  unless their vote balance is that tight, how does it make news?
[12:23] {Threei}  (GR) Greece PM Papandreou: July 21 agreement proposals have proven to be insufficient; negotiations ongoing with regards to the decisions taken at the July 21 meeting
[12:23] {Threei}  - Have serious doubts about reaching decisions at the summit this weekend on Oct 23; decisions are necessary and definitive
[12:27] {dino} i wish greece would just default so we could move on
[12:27] {Threei}  amen to that
[12:31] {RonS} so, 3i, why are you not on twitter...your stocktwits posts would automatically post there as well...
[12:31] {Threei}  I am
[12:31] {Threei}  on both
[12:31] {Threei}  link I posted is from twitter
[12:32] {Threei}  @Realitytrader
[12:32] {Threei}  stocktwist link is
[12:33] {Threei}  try this:!/RealityTrader
[12:33] {Threei}  works?
[12:34] {Threei}  if not, the simplest way is to go to RT homepage and use the Follow button
[12:35] {RonS} ok, gotcha now...
[12:35] {Threei}  :)
[12:40] {RonS} ...great...Obama to speak at 2 pm EDT, White House announces -
[12:41] {Threei}  13:30 German govt spokesperson makes statement
[12:44] {RonS} geez, admitting lateness already:  Update: The White House press briefing has been delayed until later today. Please disregard earlier post pointing to live video.
[12:44] {Threei}  lol
[13:16] {RonS} $RIMM chatter
[13:21] {RonS} guy is a joke...obama speaking
[13:22] {RonS} this has moved into the top five lies kFLASH: SarKozy and Merkel Agree ESFS Needs Leverage and A Decision Will Be Made No Later Than Next Wednesday nown to mankind:  
[13:23] {RonS} ...lies know to mankind...
[13:23] {RonS} known
[13:27] {Threei}  lol
[13:46] {Threei}  Business Council survey indicates CEOs feel conditions for business has been worsening; skepticism that US can reach 3% GDP over the next three years
[13:46] {Threei}  how much money did they spend for that survey? I could tell them for half of it
[13:47] {Threei}  no news that I see for this spike a min ago
[13:47] {nemo} vwap bounce
[13:47] {nemo} both spy and IWM
[13:47] {Threei}  a bit too sharp and sudden for just a technical bounce
[13:48] {Threei}  normslly you see this thanks to new headline
[13:48] {nemo} well, I hear ya, but...both were right on the vwap when it happened...just reporting
[13:48] {Threei}  right
[13:49] {nemo} btw...120.90 is the weekly pivot on spy, e've been oscillating around it this week
[13:50] {Threei}  fascinating how it happens
[13:53] {nemo} spy bottom was the 76.8 retracement of the recent range swing low, which was w/in .20 of S1 support and .10 of the Quraterly pivot point...go figure
[13:54] {nemo} .02 of S1 support
[14:06] {RonS} hey, nemo did the retweet...
[14:09] {Threei}  ty guys, much appreciated
[14:11] {Threei}  (GR) Greece PM has now expelled the dissenting ruling party member from the party after a vote against the party on portion of austerity
[14:11] {Threei}  - Voting continues, with 100 Yes votes against 94 No votes; 151 votes needed to pass.
[14:11] {Threei}  this expelled member is the future PM of Greece I assume
[14:15] {RonS} qotd:  Somewhere in Libya, there's a tombstone engraver looking at 14 different spellings of Gaddafi & crapping his pants.
[14:15] {nemo} hey folks my firm shutting down tomorrow...I'll be out of commission for at least a few weeks
[14:16] {RonS} sad to hear nemo...will look forward to your return...
[14:17] {RonS} hearing greek vote passed
[14:18] {Threei}  lol
[14:18] {Threei}  I feel deeply ignored
[14:23] {dino} nemo, will miss you, like the pivots, support, and vwap stuff
[14:23] {nemo} I'll still post it, just won't be live with it
[14:28] {dino} ok
[14:30] {dino} we missed csh ron, gap down slow all day up
[14:31] {dino} aef, aed, aeh drop
[14:40] {Threei}  oh boy
[14:40] {Threei}  Senators say Fed's Bernanke will submit proposals to Congress next week on how to help housing market
[14:42] {RonS} idiocy...exactly where has he been for he past three years?
[14:43] {Threei}  look at the market merrily hopping at that
[14:44] {dino} out nxpi .24, +.35
[14:45] {Threei}  (EU) Said to be considering up to five options for revising the Greek debt exchange - financial press
[14:45] {RonS} gj
[14:45] {Threei}  they mean 5 names for the same thing
[14:57] {RonS} sheesh, freakin woodpecker pecking my house
[15:00] {RonS}
[15:02] {Threei}  cool-looking bird
[15:03] {RonS} yeah, it usually works on my aspens...diligent worker
[15:05] {RonS} look bp
[15:19] {dino} i get one pecking my rain gutters
[15:28] {nemo} o.k.  see you guys at some point.  I'll post levels have 16 points so far this week on spy alone, there were others that keyed off of IWM....take care
[15:28] {dino} take care nemo
[15:29] {swill} Look forward to you return and postings
[15:35] {RonS} syna blood
[15:36] {RonS} amr pop
[15:42] {Threei}  listless ending
[15:43] {RonS} had a second great dya here. the concepts you put forth in that article are finally sinking in for me.  thanks.
[15:43] {RonS} day
[15:43] {Threei}  :)
[15:44] {swill} ty Vad
[15:44] {Threei}  spiking now... no news
[15:48] {Threei}  OK guys, let's have a good evening
[15:48] {Threei}  thank you all
[15:48] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:55] {larisa} bye :)
[15:56] {dino} gn all, thx for ideas