Friday, November 4, 2011

Nov 04 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)


Nice end to the week. Started out a bit shaky, with couple stops, but then trade after trade went right, fixing the morning and taking us firmly in positive territory. Would hate to go on the weekend without profitable day.  Oh, and check out phenomenal trade on JEF done by one of our members around 14:40 and on - discussed and coached through by a few. Perfect sample of cooperation in the room.

Session Time: Fri Nov 04 00:00:00 2011
[09:13] {swill} morning
[09:15] {Threei}  (FR) French President Sarkozy: EU taking firm action towards Greece and developments to be discussed at the upcoming Euro Area meeting on Nov 7th - G20 press conference- Welcomes Italy measures to restore confidence
[09:15] {Threei}  good morning swill
[09:16] {jakob} good morning all
[09:18] {Threei}  jakob :)
[09:18] {nemo} what about me?
[09:18] {RonS} howdy y'all...
[09:18] {Threei}  nemo, ron :)
[09:19] {RonS} sorry to read about the job losses up north...
[09:20] {RonS} reading italian 10 yr yield to 6.63%
[09:20] {Threei}  uh
[09:20] {Threei}  that's nasty
[09:21] {Threei}  The best description of EU happenings I could think of:
[09:21] {Threei}  "This neurotic pursuit of sanity is driving us all crazy."
[09:21] {Threei}  (I am sure nemo can relate)\
[09:22] {nemo} I did see the word "homicide" in there, so no, I can't
[09:22] {Threei}  but... neurotic, crazy?
[09:23] {Threei}  come on, 2 out of 3 isn't bad
[09:24] {dino} gm all
[09:24] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:24] {_dustin12} good morning....
[09:25] {Threei}  dustin :)
[09:26] {Threei}  two opening ideas:
[09:26] {Threei}  RIMM short .50 break
[09:26] {Threei}  FXC short .70 break
[09:26] {nemo} fxc or fcx?
[09:26] {Threei}  FCX, sorry
[09:26] {nemo} doesn't matter to me...no account
[09:26] {Threei}  FCX half lot of course, gotta respect its opening volatility
[09:27] {Threei}  desirably if stays under .85
[09:27] {Threei}  if spikes at the open, will look for different trigger
[09:27] {Threei}  RIMM, too high, looking for different stup too
[09:29] {nemo} iwm at yesterday pivot, spy at vwap
[09:30] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .60 break
[09:30] {Threei}  if stays under .70
[09:30] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .80 break half lot
[09:30] {Threei}  stop above .95
[09:32] {Threei}  no go
[09:32] {Threei}  RIMM invalidated for now
[09:33] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .60 break
[09:34] {Threei}  if stays under .70
[09:34] {ese} gm
[09:34] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:35] {Threei}  invaliated
[09:36] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .80 break
[09:36] {Threei}  half lot
[09:37] {Threei}  if stays above .65
[09:37] {ese} in
[09:37] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:37] {Threei}  two partials
[09:39] {Threei}  no go
[09:39] {Threei}  not delighted
[09:40] {ese} buggar....stopped
[09:40] {ese} .66
[09:43] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .85 break
[09:43] {Threei}  if stays above .75
[09:44] {Threei}  target 36.20, three partials
[09:44] {Threei}  LVS rinsed
[09:45] {nemo} slw support .68
[09:46] {nemo} pivot at .60
06[09:48] * Threei kicks SLW in the rear
[09:49] {Threei}  need SPY to go through .50 finally
[09:49] {dino} iart sm l .50
[09:50] {Threei}  trailing SLW to .79
[09:50] {Threei}  it had its chance
[09:51] {Threei}  1:1
[09:51] {Threei}  half out
[09:52] {dino} out slw .90, +.05
[09:52] {Threei}  scalpers win
[09:53] {Threei}  no news for this SPY drop
[09:54] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .40 break
[09:54] {Threei}  if stays under .50
[09:54] {Threei}  target 19.10 - .15
[09:55] {Threei}  formally, .45 high and you could say .46 is legitimate stop
[09:55] {Threei}  but it's just too close, easy to get shaken out
[09:55] {Threei}  1:1
[09:55] {Threei}  now stop to .46
[09:56] {dino} auxl sm l .65
[09:58] {Threei}  1:2 close enough for another partial
[09:58] {Threei}  and stop to .41 for the balance
[10:02] {dino} gj rimm
[10:02] {Threei}  target hit
[10:02] {Threei}  out
[10:02] {Threei}  ty
[10:02] {Threei}  breathing easier
[10:08] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .40 break
[10:08] {Threei}  if stays under .50
[10:09] {dino} keyn sm l .50 break
[10:09] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:14] {dino} keyn stop -.22
[10:14] {dino} .22
[10:15] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .70 break
[10:15] {Threei}  if stays under .80
[10:17] {dino} auxl stop .39, -.26
[10:18] {Threei}  SPY feels like crashing thorugh the floor any second now
[10:18] {Threei}  FCX target about .40
[10:19] {Threei}  if triggers finally
[10:20] {Threei}  1:1
[10:24] {dino} cov fcx +.10
[10:25] {Threei}  you are not fooling around eh dino? :)
[10:25] {dino} odd morning
[10:25] {Threei}  scalpers winm again
[10:25] {dino} fcx seems srong imo, considering mkt -150
[10:26] {dino} strongh
[10:26] {Threei}  anyway, this trade took back in green
[10:26] {dino} strong, sheesh
[10:26] {Threei}  lol
[10:26] {Threei}  don't resist this... it's conversation with us that rubs off of you and makes your typing misrable
[10:26] {dino} type one handed w/o looking
Session Close: Fri Nov 04 10:27:45 2011

Session Start: Fri Nov 04 10:27:45 2011
Session Ident: #discussions
02[10:27] * Disconnected
02[10:27] * Attempting to rejoin channel #discussions
03[10:27] * Rejoined channel #discussions
[10:30] {dino} 07 red
[10:30] {Threei} Short Setup: ADBE  .65 break
[10:31] {Threei}  big shares, small scalp
[10:31] {Threei}  if stays under .70
[10:36] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .60 break
[10:36] {Threei}  if stays under .70
[10:37] {RonS} dino, chk
[10:38] {dino} hmmm
[10:38] {dino} sm l .01
[10:40] {Threei}  1:1, half out
[10:40] {Threei}  scalpers know what to do
[10:41] {RonS} chk sm l .89
[10:41] {dino} nihd sm l .25
[10:49] {RonS} this statement unconfirmed but this guy makes me want to puke:  Obama on TV at G20 .... says the summit just caused us to avoid another depression
[10:50] {Threei}  ADBE invalidated
[10:50] {dino} he's the biggest idiot i can think of
[10:51] {RonS} well, 3i says les is coming back...
[10:51] {RonS} :)
[10:51] {dino} lol
[10:52] {swill} back in 45
[10:53] {thomcbell} obama will get re-elected
[10:53] {thomcbell} the electorate is insane
[10:53] {Threei}  thmc... very likely unless republocans find the way to run Generic Republican {G}
[10:53] {Threei}  all polls show that that guy is the only one who beats him reliably
[10:54] {dino} you think he's bad now, just imagine him re-elected. he will call himself a god
[10:56] {dino} veco spike
[10:56] {RonS} hearing china led push...
[10:57] {dino} thx
Session Close: Fri Nov 04 10:59:32 2011

Session Start: Fri Nov 04 10:59:32 2011
Session Ident: #discussions
02[10:59] * Disconnected
02[10:59] * Attempting to rejoin channel #discussions
03[10:59] * Rejoined channel #discussions
[11:01] {Threei}  OK, let's try and find couple more to add to green\
[11:01] {Threei}  SLW, forms long setup,
[11:01] {Threei}  but I'd like to get in on a pubbacl,
[11:02] {Threei}  desirably just under .20
[11:02] {dino} is that a pub?
[11:02] {Threei}  sigh
[11:02] {Threei}  it's a pullback typed with fins
[11:03] {dino} keyn sm l .40
[11:03] {Threei}  no pullback
[11:06] {RonS} chk trail stop to .45
[11:07] {Threei}  SLW really got way
[11:07] {Threei}  shouldn't try to be cute
[11:07] {Threei}  not my forte {G}
[11:07] {RonS} out chk .89 to .45  +.56
[11:07] {Threei}  wtg ron
[11:07] {dino} gj
[11:07] {thomcbell} very nice Ron
[11:09] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .80 break
[11:09] {Threei}  if stays above .70 for scalpers, .65 for day traders
[11:10] {Threei}  can easily turn into milk trade
[11:10] {Threei}  SPY has a look and feel of resuming its daily slow creep-up
[11:10] {Threei}  in absence of another Greece referendum of course
[11:15] {RonS} auxl sm l .08 s/l lod
[11:15] {thomcbell} vrus defended at citi about a bukc ago
[11:15] {thomcbell} no discernable pattern
[11:15] {thomcbell} but watching
[11:15] {thomcbell} u can take credit for that Vad
[11:16] {dino} out chk .41, +.40
[11:17] {Threei}  hmm
[11:17] {Threei}  ok, if you insist... not sure how it works, but credit is credit :)
[11:17] {Threei}  FCX is invalidated
[11:18] {thomcbell} trade valid setups only....
[11:19] {thomcbell} and sit until they present themselves
[11:19] {RonS} wow, and i thought it was trade vad setups only...
[11:19] {dino} vad=valid
[11:19] {RonS} :D
[11:19] {Threei}  you guys are mean
[11:20] {dino} auxl sm l .10
[11:20] {Threei}  I am proud to be associated with you
[11:22] {thomcbell} i got ur back Vad !
[11:22] {Threei}  thank you
[11:23] {dino} open spike
[11:23] {Threei}  just watch yours... for nemo, every back has a target painted on it by default :)
[11:24] {Threei}  OPEN Morgan Stanley discloses a 5.9% passive stake in the company - filing
[11:25] {dino} chk
[11:26] {dino} sm l .60
[11:27] {RonS} jef sm l .42  s/l .29
[11:27] {dino} lng l .27
[11:29] {Threei}  I am tryign to under stand here one thing:
[11:29] {Threei}  this pullback to day's low from 124.60s,
[11:29] {RonS} ...know one of the founders of lng...jewish guy from denver...named smith no less...truth stranger than fiction
[11:29] {Threei}  it broke the uptrend for the rest of the day, or it was just a shakeout
[11:30] {dino} gut says shakeout
[11:30] {Threei}  mine does too
[11:30] {RonS} jef trail stop .37
[11:30] {dino} market feels like it wants up
[11:34] {Threei}  I didn't realize Groupon IPO was today
[11:34] {thomcbell} fcx vad?
[11:34] {thomcbell} thru 39.82?
[11:34] {Threei}  .80
[11:35] {Threei}  good enough as a trigger
[11:35] {Threei}  and SLW, .65
[11:37] {dino} out keyn .79, +.39
[11:37] {RonS} out jef .46 +.04  too thick
[11:46] {thomcbell} what are u showing vwap on spy -
[11:46] {thomcbell} dont have my usu setup today
[11:46] {thomcbell} power out in nj all week
[11:47] {swill} back
[11:48] {dino} 124.78
[11:51] {dino} chk to b/e
[11:53] {Threei}  I hate it
[11:53] {Threei}  things stalled
[11:53] {Threei}  nothing happens
[11:53] {Threei}  and I stringly intend to make it a good Friday
[11:53] {Threei}  well... better one at least
[11:54] {dino} out chk +.04
[11:56] {dino} iart to flat, stuck
[11:56] {thomcbell} slw still looks interesting
[11:57] {thomcbell} nice volume bar a few back on 5 min
[11:57] {Threei}  yes
[11:57] {Threei}  neds market help to resolvew
[11:57] {RonS} ya, at least auxl moving...hehe
[11:58] {dino} roflol
[11:58] {dino} just tried to sell nihd and realized it hard stopped out earlier
[11:59] {RonS} ya, putting nihd in the "dead to me" category
[11:59] {dino} another story?
[12:00] {dino} out iart flat
[12:00] {RonS} when i take 3 losses..."dead to me"...now about through half the board
[12:00] {RonS} :)
[12:00] {dino} ahhh
[12:01] {dino} vwap
[12:01] {RonS} keyn target 21.60
[12:02] {RonS} needs to go pulp
[12:02] {dino} out at .79 here
[12:02] {patience} good morning
[12:03] {Threei}  patience :)
[12:03] {RonS} you must be gorgeous...
[12:03] {patience} you talking to vad or me
[12:03] {RonS} ...got lots of beauty sleep...
[12:04] {patience} made $14k yesterday....thought I could back off today
[12:05] {dino} wow and i was happy w/$800
[12:05] {patience} my experience has been
[12:05] {patience} i'm either making my daily
[12:05] {patience} then i start making around 5k a day
[12:06] {patience} then market changes, i make around 10k a day
[12:06] {dino} awesome
[12:06] {patience} when it hit like yestesterday
[12:06] {patience} i take the money and run
[12:06] {patience} i'm in cash
[12:06] {patience} because everytime this has happened to me
[12:06] {patience} market that i trade
[12:06] {patience} meaning this time it is gold and silver
[12:06] {patience} tanks hard
[12:07] {patience} i  think silver will tank hard first
[12:07] {patience} but
[12:07] {dino} ahhh
[12:07] {patience} i trade what i see
[12:07] {patience} :)
[12:07] {patience} right vad
[12:07] {dino} you're a rock star patience
[12:07] {patience} another thing i learnt about my style of trading
[12:08] {patience} i tend to trade the one favourite of the sector that it is on fire
[12:08] {patience} i look for the one that just does it consistantly upwards, slowly, no rockets, no hft target
[12:08] {patience} so in this instance i trade hg
[12:08] {patience} hgu
[12:08] {patience} and i trade big lots
[12:11] {RonS} out auxl -.04
[12:11] {dino} its a dog
[12:12] {RonS} bill murray in ghostbusters:  "my girlfriend's a dog..."
[12:13] {dino} i'm a mog, half man half dog. i'm my own best friend - john candy spaceballs
[12:19] {Threei}  I am out SLW here
[12:19] {Threei}  thomc, you?
[12:20] {thomcbell} i didnt play
[12:21] {Threei}  oh
[12:21] {thomcbell} y - i have no positions and dealing with some stuff off line
[12:21] {jakob} i got in at .66 and got rinsed .53
[12:22] {Threei}  yeah, it did that first time
[12:22] {Threei}  took some mental effort to go for a second
[12:22] {Threei}  and felt like being stubborn
[12:22] {Threei}  which it probabkly was, lol
[12:22] {dino} auxl stop -.11
[12:30] {RonS} out keyn .48 to .76  +.28 weakened...
[12:31] {patience} in anr, reported yesteday (coal)
[12:31] {dino} lng to .39
[12:34] {dino} out +.12
[12:35] {RonS} gj
[12:35] {dino} ty
[12:36] {RonS} even though patience is thinking "you suck"...
[12:36] {dino} jazz blood
[12:36] {RonS} :D
[12:36] {dino} lol ron
[12:36] {patience} ron bad
[12:37] {dino} no worries, i am one of 5, so thick skin
[12:37] {RonS} 200 day at 33.38
[12:39] {dino} fio spike
[12:40] {dino} damn can't borrow
[12:42] {dino} auxl gap fill
[12:44] {dino} chk
[12:46] {MigC} chk
[12:47] {RonS} i'll bite...chk
[12:47] {RonS} w/ the post not buying here...
[12:47] {dino} would like to see closer to lod
[12:48] {RonS} dino...hearing mcp ceo on cnbc in 10 minutes for an hour...if there is a short covering spike it could be a good short...i cannot short
[12:50] {dino} nor i
[12:52] {dino} sm l chk .15
[12:53] {RonS} check that mcp ceo appearance scheduled for 1:30 edt
[13:03] {Threei}  you should hear the comment my wife made seeing that 85 people like me on facebook
[13:03] {dino} lng l .48
[13:04] {RonS} well...
[13:04] {dino} surprised i take it
[13:04] {Threei}  "I am married to you, I kind of have to... what's their excuse??"
[13:04] {RonS} lol..."i kind of have to"...
[13:05] {dino} auxl l .91
[13:09] {RonS} ha, took mcp on squeeze expectation... .86 to 39.40  +.54
[13:09] {Threei}  nice
[13:09] {Threei}  and didn't share with us
[13:10] {Threei}  not nice
[13:10] {Threei}  and christmas is coming... what list are you going to be on, nice or...??
[13:10] {dino} gj
[13:10] {RonS} 10:54  RonS  check that mcp ceo appearance scheduled for 1:30 edt
[13:11] {Threei}  hmmm
[13:11] {Threei}  (US) Fed's Tarullo: There is a need to deal with foreign bank reliance on Dollar funding; must do more to help cut risk of runs on financial institutions- 2012 priority should be with handling the larger financial institutions
[13:11] {Threei}  I thought it was part of being a reserve currency
[13:12] {dino} they need to just shut up
[13:17] {dino} chk stop .25, +.10
[13:20] {dino} stop lng .44, -.04
[13:25] {dino} auxl stop .99, +.08
[13:31] {thomcbell} adsk lng setup 35.01 VAD?
[13:31] {Threei}  I think sop
[13:31] {Threei}  so
[13:36] {RonS} nuts jef...
[13:41] {RonS} cedc sm l .22
[13:43] {dino}  what a fall cedc
[13:43] {Threei}  good boy ADSK
[13:43] {thomcbell} spy pivot 125.43?
[13:44] {Threei}  took it thom?
[13:44] {thomcbell} yes adsk
[13:44] {thomcbell} 1:1
[13:44] {thomcbell} lol
[13:44] {dino} out adsk .13, +.12 ty tbell/vad
[13:45] {Threei}  :)
[13:45] {Threei}  day slowly turns into fairly solid
[13:45] {thomcbell} yw
[13:45] {Threei}  despite shaky start
[13:45] {thomcbell} anything out there for this strength
[13:45] {thomcbell} fcx damn
[13:45] {thomcbell} good tell with it down 0.30 cents most of the day
[13:46] {Threei}  gut was right about that pullback being last shakeout befor slow cree-up
[13:46] {dino} going for open gaps
[13:49] {RonS} cedc trail stop .25
[13:52] {RonS} out cedc +.04
[13:52] {dino} chk lod
[13:54] {dino} l .95
[13:56] {RonS} hearing some kind of news conference in 3 min...
[13:57] {dino} for who? chk?
[13:58] {RonS} no europe or some other bs...
[13:58] {dino} ok
[14:01] {RonS} Leucadia Buys Another 500k Shrs of $JEF; Bought 1m Shrs Yesterday
[14:03] {RonS} oops iart...
[14:09] {Threei}  (GR) Greece PM Papandreou to propose Fin Min Venizelos as the replacement PM for the caretaker Govt - financial press
[14:12] {dino} out chk .09, +.14
[14:22] {RonS} ok, something for the weekend but be forwarned...not all may enjoy it :  http://tinyurl.com/3dj5s3o
[14:23] {RonS} btw the ending is freakin hilarious...
[14:25] {Threei}  is whle world watching it? buffering forever
[14:26] {Threei}  I saw a few references to this video, can't get to watch it
[14:27] {patience} won't get past buffering for me either
[14:27] {RonS} ...works fine for me through the link...and loads instantaneously...nsa prob monitoring canuckian access...
[14:27] {RonS} :)
[14:28] {Threei}  could be
[14:29] {Threei}  some content has this label sometimes, not for outside of USA due to licensing limitations
[14:29] {Threei}  but this one simply won't play, no warnng
[14:32] {Threei}  even news stopped
[14:37] {thomcbell} this jef is interesting me now
[14:37] {thomcbell} lot of volume on that spike and not retracing
[14:37] {thomcbell} much
[14:37] {thomcbell} no pattern vad!
[14:41] {thomcbell} JEF is a hostage just like the rest of the market
[14:41] {Threei}  kind of trying to frm upward move
[14:41] {Threei}  but not very reliable
[14:42] {thomcbell} im still long a partial from 11.80ish level and using a 11.98 stop
[14:43] {dino} on jef? why stop so far away?
[14:43] {Threei}  latest low is 12.10
[14:43] {Threei}  I'd trail under it
[14:44] {dino} put that sucker at .19
[14:44] {thomcbell} ok thanks
[14:44] {dino} now .24
[14:44] {dino} now .29 imo
[14:44] {dino} keep it .06 away
[14:45] {dino} .35 imo
[14:45] {Threei}  dino keeps leash really really short :)
[14:45] {dino} nice trade btw
[14:46] {Threei}  "you bite, bad dog, or don't even think of barking"
[14:46] {dino} i'd be out, w/.60 gain
[14:48] {dino} you know vad, it's not that i bite, it's just that the one thing that really gets me mad is giving back gains. "it grinds my gears"
[14:48] {Threei}  I am right there with you
[14:49] {dino} see in this case, up .50+, why give .30 back?
[14:49] {Threei}  didn't mean you by that dog... meant your attitude toward stock, ala dogs
[14:49] {dino} well, some would see it differently, :D
[14:52] {thomcbell} 2/3 sold on jef
[14:52] {thomcbell} 12.28 stop on rest
[14:52] {dino} gj, thats another way to do it
[14:55] {Threei}  the best
[14:56] {thomcbell} breaking out of a nice pattern now on 2 day chart
[14:56] {dino} took chk .00 to ,09 too fast to post
[14:56] {thomcbell} nice cup and handle
[14:56] {thomcbell} jef
[14:57] {dino} where's your stop now if i can ask?
[14:58] {dino} .57?
[14:58] {thomcbell} 0.48
[14:58] {thomcbell} only have 20% left
[14:58] {dino} i'd hide behind those .58 bids
[14:58] {dino} but i am stingy.
[14:58] {thomcbell} dont have level 2 - right now
[14:59] {dino} great trade thomcbell
[14:59] {thomcbell} tu
[14:59] {dino} wow, how can you trade w/o
[14:59] {thomcbell} Vad and the rest of u been HUGE HELP
[14:59] {dino} 5k at .61
[14:59] {dino} hide there
[14:59] {dino} glad to help
[15:00] {dino} big bids .71 hide
[15:00] {dino} .76 now
[15:00] {dino} you da man on that trade, wtFg
[15:01] {Threei}  beuatiful
[15:01] {dino} big bids .84
[15:03] {thomcbell} 12.80 stop on balance
[15:04] {thomcbell} i need lessons on that
[15:04] {thomcbell} out thanks for the assist dino
[15:05] {RonS} gj...hearing now that they will detail all of their positions after the bell
[15:06] {dino} great trade
[15:07] {thomcbell} i thought they did already
[15:07] {dino} pretty good drop off
[15:07] {RonS} they did but they were the positions at the end of august i think
[15:07] {dino} yeah, they did earlier 2:45 cyber had it
[15:08] {dino} falling hard
[15:08] {dino} keyn drop
[15:13] {swill} back from driving
[15:14] {RonS} car or golf ball?
[15:14] {swill} lol car
[15:18] {dino} keyn sm l74
[15:18] {dino} .74
[15:22] {thomcbell} watching osk for a rinse
[15:22] {thomcbell} maybe around 20.70 level
[15:23] {dino} ican 6 board members osk
[15:27] {dino} out keyn .94, +.20
[15:29] {dino} have to get my daughter, maybe back for close.
[15:29] {dino} good week for me, thx vad, ron, and others'
[15:29] {swill} are you taking golden?
[15:29] {dino} yes
[15:29] {swill} have a good one
[15:30] {RonS} cya dino
[15:30] {dino} she's slowing down, 13 1/2 yrs old
[15:30] {dino} :)
[15:30] {Threei}  take care dino
[15:35] {RonS} outta here too...good weekend to all...
[15:36] {swill} cy ron
[15:46] {Threei}  OK guys, I am pretty sure we deserved a relaxing weekend
[15:47] {Threei}  wasn't the easiest week, and we managed to make a) profitable and b) boring
[15:47] {Threei}  which is not a small feat
[15:47] {swill} thank you very much vad
[15:47] {Threei}  very welcome
[15:47] {Threei}  have a great weekend, see you all Monday morning
[15:47] {thomcbell} take care - good stuff all of you
[15:48] {swill} houston out
[15:48] {_dustin12} thanks
[15:48] {_dustin12} bye,great weekend
[15:49] {Threei}  tae care dustin
[15:49] {patience} ty vad, great week, one trade for me today, positive and modest   :)
[15:49] {Threei}  see you Monday
[15:49] {jakob} bye all, see you Monday
[15:49] {swill} fall back spring forward