Friday, November 18, 2011

Nov 18 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

Decent day with solid profits. Second half of the day was a bit too boring but such is Friday.

Session Time: Fri Nov 18 00:00:00 2011
[08:56] {dino} gm all
[08:59] {Threei}  morning dino
[08:59] {Threei}  early video for you:
[09:11] {dino}  cramer ultra bear this a.m.
[09:11] {Threei}  hmmm
[09:12] {Threei}  that makes me rethink my initial "short into strength" idea
[09:12] {dino} he was ultra bull last week, contrary indicator
[09:12] {Threei}  never fails
[09:13] {Threei}  his consistency is nothing short of spectacular
[09:14] {RonS} gm...fwiw hearing max pain spy 1240
[09:14] {Threei}  ron :)
[09:14] {Threei}  looked at that video?
[09:15] {RonS} yes, the brits are stunning in their elocution...and the look of the other guys is pure constipation
[09:15] {Threei}  farage is my hero
[09:19] {Threei}  (EU) Germany's Commerzbank CEO Blessing: Euro zone stability pact has failed in its current form
[09:19] {Threei}  - Sees insufficient investors for the euro zone bonds; has seen this lead to two separate investor classes
[09:19] {Threei}  - Government debt at this time cannot be effectively insured against default
[09:19] {Threei}  - Unlimited ECB bond purchases is 'very problematic'
[09:20] {Threei}  this piece of news from yesterday is absolutely unbelieavable:
[09:20] {Threei}
[09:20] {Threei}  this sounds to me like WWIII stuff
[09:21] {jakob} good morning
[09:21] {Threei}  jakob :)
[09:22] {Threei}  btw, dino... I am likely to finally watch Altas Shrugged over the weekend... will report Monday
[09:23] {Threei}  well... Cramer or not, but market still looks like short the bounces to me at this point
[09:24] {dino} let me know
[09:29] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .50 break half lot
[09:30] {Threei}  if stays under .60
[09:30] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .50 break
[09:30] {dino} tdg sm l .99
[09:31] {Threei}  FCX 1:1
[09:32] {Threei}  1:2
[09:32] {Threei}  out
[09:32] {dino} gj
[09:32] {Threei}  SLW if stays under .65
[09:34] {Threei}  SLW, trail to .61
[09:34] {pragmatic} anyone in slw? Not in short list for me
[09:34] {Threei}  to .56
[09:35] {swill} not on my list either
[09:36] {Threei}  to .51
[09:37] {Threei}  1;1
[09:38] {Threei} Short Setup: SLV  .95
[09:38] {Threei}  aww, late
[09:38] {Threei}  SLW 1:2, cover in full
[09:39] {RonS} siro sm l .00
[09:39] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  46 break half lot
[09:41] {Threei}  stop .12
[09:43] {Threei}  daily chart OMG looks like it sounds
[09:43] {Threei}  LVS 1:1
[09:46] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .65 break
[09:46] {Threei}  LVS 1:2
[09:46] {Threei}  out in full .65
[09:46] {Threei}  RIMM stop above .70
[09:46] {Threei}  very tight
[09:48] {Threei}  no go
[09:48] {Threei}  wow LVS
[09:48] {Threei}  can I have some back?
[09:51] {pragmatic} tx LVS +.10
[09:51] {Threei}  humble...
[09:51] {Threei}  what do you know, for once Cramer was right
[09:52] {pragmatic} what? isn't he the most knowledgeable man in market ?
[09:54] {dino} pega sm l .75
[09:56] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .05 break
[09:56] {Threei}  if stays above .95
[09:57] {Threei}  still valid
[09:57] {Threei}  target .25
[09:59] {Threei}  lets trail to .99
[09:59] {Threei}  was 1 cent to 1;1
[10:00] {Threei}  1:1
[10:00] {Threei}  half out
[10:01] {Threei}  stop to .04
[10:01] {RonS} Leading Indicators: Prior 0.2%, Market Expects 0.6%, Actual +0.9%
[10:02] {Threei}  out
[10:08] {dino} sohu sm l .30 ave
[10:13] {RonS} out siro 42.00 +1.00
[10:14] {Threei}  wtg
[10:14] {RonS} ty
[10:18] {dino} gj
[10:18] {Threei}  Euro vs US Dollar (GE) German Foreign Ministry said to have confirmed details of leaked memo; confirms it has been considering permitting more euro zone orderly defaults beyond that of Greece - financial press
[10:18] {Threei}  ***Reminder: Overnight the UK Telegraph published a German memo that revealed plans for deeper European integration. The Telegraph reported that, according to the leaked document, a European body with the authority to take over struggling states should be established to deal with the current crisis.
[10:18] {Threei}  - The proposals urge the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) should be changed into an IMF for the EU.
[10:18] {Threei}  - The European Monetary Fund (EMF) would be able to take full fiscal control of a failing nations, incl taking them into receivership.
[10:19] {Threei}  I can hardly believe that
[10:19] {RonS} when did sovereign rights go out the window?
[10:20] {Threei}  on the good news front: Playbook tablet can be had for 199, $300 sale
[10:22] {_jbb2011} EU countries will love hearing about the new German ambitions of control...
[10:22] {Threei}  they already do
[10:22] {RonS} ...and tim tebow stunk it up for 55 minutes, then won the game in the last 5...for the third time in a row
[10:22] {Threei}  saw that video of Nigel's speech?
[10:23] {Threei}  oh the irony worth the Taoist tale: EU was supposed to prevent exactly this, hegemony of any single state, speifically Germany
[10:23] {Threei}  and led right to that
[10:25] {Threei}  I am telling you... either EU falls apart quickly with mutual unhappiness, or they try to keep it together for longer and end up in bloody conflict
[10:26] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .15 break
[10:26] {Threei}  if stays under .25
[10:29] {Threei}  no go
[10:30] {Threei}  we had a nice morning, and I want to go to weekend profitable, so let's apply this to the rest of the day:
[10:30] {Threei}
[10:36] {pragmatic} guess dino read your blog and quit :)
[10:38] {swill} driving for a bit.  money in trunk
[10:39] {Threei}  hmmm
[10:39] {Threei}  let us know details of your route pls
[10:39] {swill} straight back to market
[10:40] {dino} csh sm l .40
[10:46] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .45 break
[10:46] {dino} dgit sm l .50
[10:46] {Threei}  if stays above .35
[10:48] {Threei}  playing for 1:2, maybe more
[10:48] {Threei}  with normal partials
[10:50] {Threei}  if you look at SPY, you'll see that this FCX play is actually a play for SPY break of 122.50
[10:50] {Threei}  1:1
[10:50] {Threei}  play by the book
[10:50] {Threei}  stop for the balance to .44
[10:51] {Threei}  changing target to 1:3, want to sell 1/4 at 1:2
[10:52] {Threei}  resistance at .60 is powerful enough, if broken - should rpovide great momentum
[10:55] {Threei}  out second half
[10:56] {Threei}  ugh... rinse
[10:57] {Threei}  discipline is a bitch sometimes
[11:00] {dino} out sohu .71, +.41
[11:02] {RonS} gj
[11:03] {Threei}  nice one
[11:03] {dino} ty
[11:08] {RonS} arba breakdown
[11:12] {Threei}  the weirdest headline of the day:
[11:12] {Threei}  77% Have Unfavorable Opinion of Freddie Mac, 73% Say Same of Fannie Mae
[11:12] {Threei}  seriously? in someone's eyes one is preferable over the other?
[11:15] {Threei}  watching TZA for entry on pullback
[11:20] {dino} cpsi drop
[11:22] {dino} cpsi vsm l .24 ave
[11:27] {_nocki} Hello everybody, nocki is here watching and try to find out what criteria do you look for that a trade come in near consideration
[11:27] {Threei}  hi nocki
[11:28] {Threei}  our approasch is simply hunting for the setups we play
[11:28] {Threei}  there are several chart configurations that create foundation of our system,
[11:28] {Threei}  scanner spits out stocks that match those setups,
[11:28] {Threei}  plus we play a few usual suspects
[11:29] {Threei}  behavior of which we know from extended tracking
[11:29] {Threei}  as soon as setup is formed, we have our play,
[11:30] {Threei}  setup comes iwht standard procedure of how it has to be played
[11:30] {Threei}  and we simply follow that procedure, with results that are predictable on average
[11:31] {_nocki} The rules are very clear, but are the setups explained somewhere on your site? Because it looks for me that there are special setups for different marketconditions.
[11:32] {dino} cpsi stop
[11:32] {thomcbell} it takes several days to get in gear with the tempo
[11:32] {Threei}  setups are discussed in great details in books and courses
[11:32] {Threei}  TTR, MPP, video course
[11:33] {thomcbell} highly recommended btw
[11:33] {Threei}  and one more is coming, fully devoted to pattern recognition, with each and every setup analyzed in great details with over a hundred examples taken from actual trades
[11:34] {Threei}  with videos where a viewer will train his eye to recognize the setup as it forms
[11:34] {RonS}   these guys are worse than bad
[11:35] {Threei}  oh boy
[11:36] {RonS} atw sm l .90
[11:36] {Threei}  also, nocki, whole educational blog contains a lot of details about our trading approach
[11:36] {Threei}  use blog summary for easy navigation
[11:36] {Threei}
[11:45] {RonS} atw s/l to .20
[11:46] {cipher} s atw .33
[11:47] {cipher} out .27 +.06 not working
[11:48] {_nocki} Ok, thanks a lot. The blog have great quality. But for my understanding, how much clear defined Setups do you have and are them structured for different marketconditions?
[11:49] {Threei}  about 4-5 setups, with some variations about how exactly to play them depending on various factors
[11:50] {Threei}  JBE, DBI, C&H, DB, DT
[11:50] {RonS} atw stop .21 +.31
[11:51] {dino} gj
[11:53] {RonS} nope, rinsed
[11:55] {thomcbell} slw short setup?
[11:56] {dino} cpsi sm l .33 ave
[11:58] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .55 break
[11:58] {Threei}  which is to say, yes :)
[12:00] {Threei}  .65 stop
[12:04] {Threei}  1:1
[12:04] {Threei}  nocki... that was JBE setup )
[12:04] {Threei}  oops, DBI
[12:04] {Threei}  forgive my Friday-related brain fart
[12:05] {Threei}  1:2
[12:07] {_nocki} JBE+DBI is Jump-Base Explosion + Drop-Base Implosion? So, you are not watching everyday  a special number of stocks, you trade what is coming to the scanner, indifferent low/high price stocks, just a minimum of daily average volume?
[12:07] {Threei}  JBE and DBI, yes
[12:07] {Threei}  watching both, usual suspcets and whatever scanner spits out
[12:08] {Threei}  scanner has certain conditions set, so it doesn't offer me too low volume, too wide sporead etc
[12:08] {thomcbell} 1/3 left on slw 32.34 stop
[12:10] {thomcbell} flat slw
[12:13] {RonS} csh...stb...
[12:14] {_nocki} Thanks a lot. Think i have now an idea how you look at the market. PS: nice call
[12:14] {dino} tdg sm l .25
[12:15] {dino} csh destroyed last few days
[12:17] {cipher} csh l .12 sm
[12:18] {RonS} tried .10  missed
[12:19] {dino} ntap sm l .00
[12:19] {cipher} ibm l .95
[12:20] {RonS} ann sm l .68
[12:22] {Threei}  if I tried to plot the fastest, most effective and cheap way, it would be this:
[12:22] {Threei}  get TTR in the library,
[12:22] {Threei}  get Best Value Offer, using free two months room access
[12:22] {Threei}  while on that, get the new course with 50% discount as room member,
[12:22] {cipher} ibm stop -.15
[12:23] {Threei}  and then down the road, in a few months, when practical things become clear, get Taoist Trader, as an ultimate jewel in your educational crown
[12:26] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .40 break
[12:26] {Threei}  risky one
[12:26] {Threei}  let's do half lot
[12:26] {Threei}  this is play for SPY break of .50
[12:27] {Threei}  invalidated for now
[12:30] {RonS} out ann .89  +.21
[12:32] {cipher} l tza 00
[12:38] {_nocki} TTR cannot find, what means that? Why you determine stops in most cases with 10 cent?  Why not 5, 20 or 30? You don't get in problems because of HFT-trading?
[12:38] {Threei}  TTR = Techniques of Tape Reading
[12:38] {dino} out tdg .32, +1.07
[12:39] {Threei}  I don't determine them in 10 cents, I determine stop location by the chart - it's just that I try to pick mostly charts that offer such stop placement
[12:39] {RonS} wtg
[12:39] {dino} thx
[12:40] {Threei}  and no, HFT has zero bearing on our or anyone else's trading
[12:40] {cipher} nice dino
[12:40] {dino} ty
[12:40] {Threei}  but it serves as a great excuse for those who can't trade
[12:40] {RonS} i.e. hft ate my lunch?
[12:41] {Threei}  uhhu
[12:41] {Threei}  and my homework
[12:42] {Threei}  it's also great promotional vehicle for those who seek cheap popularity
[12:42] {Threei}  start swearing about HFT, and your popularity grows exponentially
[12:42] {Threei}  thousands of followers flock in and love your every word
[12:43] {Threei}  say that HFT is harmless to one's trading, and they hate you with scorching passion
[12:44] {Threei}  guess what kind of hate mail this article earned me:
[12:44] {Threei}
[12:45] {Threei}  this too btw:
[12:48] {cipher} tza stop -.08
[13:05] {dino} dds sm l .01
[13:06] {Threei}  (EU) CNBC's Liseman (citing sources): The idea of having the ECB lend money to the IMF in order to fund euro zone bailouts is "long dead"
[13:06] {Threei}  it was stillborn, you idiots
[13:07] {Threei}  (IA) White House: Will continue pressure on Iran unilaterally or otherwise through sanctions
[13:07] {Threei}  Iran: sanctions? sanctions?? oh no!! anything but that!!
[13:08] {dino} csh sm l .03
[13:11] {RonS} pulp today...
[13:11] {dino} nope
[13:12] {dino} scanners not moving
[13:13] {Threei}  i just poked mine
[13:13] {Threei}  like poking an amoeba
[13:20] {_nocki} intersting point of view in your blog. sounds logical to me.
[13:22] {Threei}  15 years of trading... one thing never changes:
[13:22] {Threei}  no matter what kind of market we have, people complain that it's impossible to tarde
[13:22] {RonS} nemo?
[13:22] {Threei}  lol
[13:22] {Threei}  lolthere is always new thing to blame
[13:23] {Threei}  program trading ruining the markets - hear that from about 2001
[13:23] {Threei}  yet my setups are still the same
[13:23] {Threei}  and work the same
[13:24] {Threei}  it used to be "darn market makers"
[13:24] {dino} sm l sohu .75
[13:25] {Threei}  mantra of 1998: ah, GS is at the offer, everyone sell faster
[13:25] {RonS} lol...nemo pronounces name a la "name-o"...first time i heard i thought oh sh*t he's eastern european too
[13:26] {RonS} pulling teeth got csh .87 to 48.12
[13:27] {dino} better than i
[13:29] {RonS} way to end housing glut?...Reno fire update: 9,500 evacuated, at least 20 homes destroyed
[13:32] {Threei}  (IR) Ireland Fin Min Noonan: Would prefer not to raise the income tax, sees no further VAT tax increases after planned 2012 hik
[13:32] {Threei}  - Tax policy will focus on indirect methods of taxation.
[13:32] {Threei}  everyone is tax-happy
[13:32] {Threei}  direct or indirect, it's a tax
[13:32] {Threei}  and you tax population that barely makes ends meet
[13:42] {Threei}  B.C. Supreme Court grants City of Victoria injunction to clear Occupy Victoria protesters from Centennial Square
[13:42] {Threei}  haleluja
[13:45] {dino} out csh +.30
[13:46] {RonS} gj
[13:47] {dino} ty
[13:49] {dino} out dds .31, +.30
[13:50] {dino} tdg sm l .00 break
[13:56] {swill} going for a little drive
[14:07] {dino} out tdg .38 ave, +.37
[14:08] {dino} too soon
[14:09] {Threei}  nice anyway
[14:10] {dino} thx
[14:17] {thomcbell} fcx 37.51 Vad?
[14:18] {thomcbell} im not confused here i was confused 50 handles higher
[14:19] {Threei}  I can't tell
[14:21] {thomcbell} that last sentence was for another box - sorry guys
[14:29] {RonS} qotd:  Twenty or 25 below is tolerable, but past 30 below it’s a whole different ball of wax
[14:29] {RonS} some guy commenting on the -41 f in fairbanks
[14:30] {Threei}  heh
[14:30] {Threei}  reminds me my reaction when I learned that -40 is the point where F and C meet
[14:30] {Threei}  I asekd what about below that
[14:31] {Threei}  and got answer: who cares, it's impossible to tolerate anyway
[14:35] {RonS} holy smokes:
[14:38] {Threei}  sigh
[14:49] {Threei}  close to eod market should unfreeze...
[14:49] {Threei}  which way is the question
[14:49] {Threei}  I think down...
[14:49] {Threei}  but I always think that, lol
[14:53] {dino} value added, credit suisse cuts cedc to 3 from 12. stock currently trades at 3.23
[14:54] {Threei}  rofl
[14:57] {thomcbell} thnks for the heads up Credit Suisse
[14:57] {thomcbell} nice job
[14:57] {Threei}  I don't get it
[14:57] {Threei}  no one needs vodka anymore?
[14:57] {dino} thats why they get the big bucks
[14:57] {Threei}  you'd think with all these crises this stock should fly
[14:58] {dino} yeah, drink your sorrows away
[15:00] {Threei}  every russian knows, world looks bleak only until you put away frist bottle
[15:00] {Threei}  after second it's a sky encrusted with diamonds
[15:01] {Threei}  after third everyone loves you and you love everyone
[15:01] {Threei}  but be careful not to get a food poisoning from oatmeal cookie... you may feel bad then after fourth bottle
[15:02] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .95 break
[15:03] {Threei}  .06 stop
[15:09] {Threei}  let's trail to .03
[15:10] {Threei}  out
[15:13] {swill} Vad, how is the new coarse coming?
[15:14] {Threei}  1/3 ready
[15:15] {swill} I'm looking forward to it
[15:15] {Threei}  pushing to have it done in a month
[15:15] {swill} fast. wow
[15:16] {Threei}  well... it's execution
[15:16] {dino} sprd drop
[15:16] {Threei}  slow part is gathering material, structuring it, organizing
[15:16] {Threei}  outting together the idea
[15:16] {Threei}  whe it all is ready, execution goes rapidly
[15:16] {dino} sm l .75
[15:20] {swill} true. what for will it be in.
[15:20] {swill} from
[15:20] {swill} form
[15:21] {Threei}  two parts,
[15:21] {dino} out ntap -.03, out dgit +.03, out suhu flat
[15:21] {Threei}  one is screenshots and text with explanations, will be done in the same form as Taoist Trader
[15:21] {Threei}  another is training videos
[15:21] {Threei}  in a form of videos :)
[15:22] {swill} I love those videos
[15:22] {Threei}  these will be diferent a bit
[15:22] {Threei}  no narration,
[15:22] {Threei}  idea is:
[15:22] {Threei}  t show a screenshot where chart formation takes shape, leaving a few soconds for you to see it and identify it
[15:23] {Threei}  then show next one- the same with with arrows and lines and annotations, so you can see whether you identified it correctly
[15:23] {Threei}  move to another pairt
[15:23] {Threei}  pair
[15:23] {Threei}  a few of such videos, with accelerating pace
[15:24] {Threei}  so when you are done with them you can recognize the setup from a single glance
[15:24] {Threei}  which is exactly the purpose... visual recognition
[15:25] {swill} cool
[15:26] {Threei}  eventually, the purpose is to move you from "thinking" part to "seeing"
[15:27] {Threei}  my chess experience with worl class grandmaster, I think I told the story
[15:27] {swill} yes
[15:27] {Threei}
[15:27] {Threei}  he was a hero of it
[15:31] {swill} interesting
[15:35] {swill} thanks for the update.  have you worked out the cost yet?
[15:37] {Threei}  same as Taoist Trader, with the same 50% discount for room members
[15:37] {Threei}  market stays frozen...
[15:42] {RonS} have a good weekend everyone...
[15:42] {Threei}  have a good one ron
[15:42] {Threei}  I am still hoping to catch last short
[15:43] {Threei}  (US) DOE's Chu: Solar market to "explode" in the coming decades - financial press
[15:43] {Threei}  which is why he showers money on various solyndras now
[15:52] {dino}   sprd stop -.30
[15:57] {Threei}  ok, probably too late
[15:57] {Threei}  no decisive movwe, everything remained locked in narrow range
[15:57] {Threei}  thank you all, have a great weekend
[15:57] {Threei}  see you Monday
[15:57] {swill} thank you
[16:03] {_nocki} thank you
[16:04] {Threei}  welcome, see you monday