Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Dec 21 2011

ATTENTION: new course on chart patterns is available now:

Decent day with two stops and 5 wins - have to sit through the traditional afternoon boredom.

Session Time: Wed Dec 21 00:00:00 2011
[09:00] {Threei}  I guess it's time to start looking around...
[09:10] {dino} gm
[09:11] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:14] {Threei}  poor ORCL
[09:17] {JK13} gm
[09:17] {Threei}  jk :)
[09:20] {Threei}  uncertain pre-market
[09:21] {Threei}  a bit down, a bit up
[09:23] {Threei}  total mystery: strong demand for LTRO is taken as positive?
[09:23] {Threei}  if anything, it demonstrates how badly EU financial system is damanged
[09:25] {Threei}  RIMM sees strength on afer-market reports on a few bids considered by AMZN and MSFT+Nok
[09:25] {Threei}  none of them proceeded with actual bids though
[09:27] {nemo} Is anyone going to greet me?
06[09:27] * Threei slaps nemo around a bit with a large trout
[09:27] {thomcbell} NEMO!
[09:27] {Threei}  will that do?
[09:27] {nemo} do I have a choice?
[09:27] {dino} side track day for me, buying forclosure, and hopefully selling a couple lots
[09:27] {Threei}  good luck dino
[09:28] {dino} ty
[09:30] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  14 break half lot
[09:30] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:30] {Threei}  on radar but let's let it calm down a little
[09:31] {Threei}  valid again
[09:32] {Threei}  in
[09:32] {Threei}  half out
[09:32] {Threei}  stop to .05
[09:33] {thomcbell} lvs nasty
[09:33] {Threei}  out RIMM in full
[09:33] {Threei}  +.19
[09:34] {JK13} tks Vad  +.12
[09:34] {Threei}  welcome
[09:35] {nemo} SPY pivot 123.41
[09:35] {Threei}  prepare smaller shares on RHT long
[09:35] {Threei}  if dives to 40.10
[09:36] {Threei}  ok
[09:36] {Threei}  recross is long
[09:36] {nemo} watch for tna bounce play off spy
[09:36] {Threei}  in
[09:36] {Threei}  .95 stop
[09:36] {Threei}  1:1
[09:36] {Threei}  pulp... dino stock
[09:37] {JK13} tks Vad +.10
[09:37] {Threei}  :)
[09:38] {thomcbell} qcom short the retrace back up to 53.95 Vad
[09:38] {thomcbell} nasty bar on qcom and klac
[09:39] {Threei}  if gets there, sure will be interesting
[09:40] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .50 break
[09:40] {Threei}  stop above .60
[09:40] {Threei}  target 1:3
[09:41] {Threei}  1:1
[09:42] {Threei}  1:2
[09:43] {Threei}  stop .45 for the balance
[09:43] {JK13} tks  Vad +.14
[09:44] {Threei}  not fooling around today eh jk :)
[09:44] {JK13} yap
[09:49] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .70 break
[09:49] {Threei}  if stays above .60
[09:49] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:52] {nemo} CHKP took a tumble
[09:53] {cipher} +.28 chkp thx nemo
[09:54] {Threei}  nice
[09:55] {nemo} yw
[09:55] {nemo} watch for a move towards 52.75
[09:56] {Threei}  this is one bizarre headline:
[09:56] {Threei}  CN) US Treasury Official: Sec Geithner and China Vice Premier Wang earlier discussed the global economic situation and the US and China economies- CNBC notes the call comes after a report that Chinese hackers allegedly tried to break into the databases of the US Chamber of Commerce.
[09:56] {Threei}  numbers in 4 min, let's take a breather
[09:57] {nemo} there oes chkp
[09:58] {nemo} please tell me somebody took it?
[09:58] {thomcbell} slw defending pivot nicely
[09:58] {nemo} is it after noon somewhere?
[09:59] {nemo} spy at 2010 bottom retracement, these have been significant
[10:00] {cipher} i'm in nemo
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) NOV EXISTING HOME SALES: 4.42M V 5.05ME- Prior revised lower from 4.97M to 4.25M
[10:00] {Threei}  wow
[10:00] {nemo} oh shit
[10:00] {Threei}  big revision
[10:01] {nemo} we're at weekly pivot on spy
[10:02] {Threei}  (EU) France Fin Min Baroin: The ECB LTRO operation has been a success, these liquidity operations comprise a powerful tool
[10:02] {Threei}  seriously?
[10:02] {nemo} wtf
[10:02] {Threei}  these guys worry about nice soundbite above all
[10:04] {RonS} NAR revises 2010 Home Sales by 4 million homes, admits they are mainly keeping data at this point "for tradition"
[10:04] {RonS} ...think it means "we have lied before and expect to do so again"
[10:07] {nemo} chkp acting well bids coming through in spy futures
[10:14] {thomcbell} lvs - angry today
[10:15] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  .45 break
[10:15] {Threei}  if stays above .35
[10:18] {Threei}  target 1:2
[10:24] {Threei}  no go
[10:30] {Threei}  *(US) DOE CRUDE: -10.6M V -3ME; GASOLINE: -410K V +500KE; DISTILLATE: -2.3M V -500KE
[10:40] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .60 break
[10:40] {Threei}  if stays under .70
[10:41] {Threei}  target 1:2
[10:42] {Threei}  1:1
[10:47] {Threei}  scalpers win
[10:51] {Threei}  now LVS is at 1:2
[11:02] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .20 break
[11:06] {Threei}  1:1
[11:17] {Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .60 break half lot
[11:18] {Threei}  if stays under .70
[11:19] {Threei}  correct to .65 break and .75 stop
[11:22] {Threei}  no worky
[11:24] {Threei}  rinse
[11:28] {cipher} cat l .14
[11:29] {Threei}  nice entry
[11:29] {cipher} out 1/3 .@30
[11:39] {RonS} what happens to free money:
[11:40] {cipher} cat stopped @.20 +.06
[11:41] {RonS} a new computer and finally have the damn thing set up how i want
[11:43] {RonS} tibx
[11:43] {Threei}  I am trying to uinderstand the implications of this article
[11:44] {Threei}  so, they essentially printed new and "temporary" money
[11:44] {Threei}  correct?
[11:45] {RonS} cnbc calling it a backdoor bazooka QE
[11:45] {RonS} so, yes...
[11:45] {Threei}  their hope that it's temporary is based on an assumption that in a course of three years banks will be able to right themselves and return the loans
[11:45] {Threei}  but the problem isn't so much the banks themselves
[11:45] {RonS} fosters a carry trade so will help short term
[11:46] {Threei}  problem is sovereign states debt, and it's a big question whether banks will use this money to help with that
[11:46] {Threei}  if they don't nothing changed
[11:46] {Threei}  if they do, they simply took the risk on themselves
[11:46] {Threei}  either way, I hgihly doubt that newly minted money will be easy to withdraw
[11:47] {RonS} the other way to look at it is that it takes the funding pressure off the banks
[11:47] {Threei}  right
[11:47] {Threei}  but nothing changed with states
[11:47] {Threei}  their fear was that if states go bust, banks will do too
[11:48] {Threei}  this funding might take that pressure off,
[11:48] {RonS} but kind of a first step towards restoring confidence
[11:48] {Threei}  but at the same time it means that this money won't be withdrawn
[11:48] {Threei}  so it's essentially permanent money printing, something they denied all along
[11:49] {Threei}  fine, let's assume they found the way around legal obstacles on the way of money printing by ECB,
[11:49] {Threei}  ten the next question is: is 600B enough?
[11:50] {RonS} lol...Isolated compound, private air transportation, toy factory ownership...oh shit! Santa's in the 1%
[11:50] {Threei}  'cause there are plenty of sources putting the umbers in a few T
[11:50] {Threei}  lol
[11:56] {RonS} this guy did not even need a nickname:  GM Said to Hire Hackett to Identify Job Cuts
[11:56] {Threei}  rofl
[11:56] {dino} 3tneeded  is number i'm hearing
[11:56] {cipher} news ibm?
[11:56] {RonS} oracle missed...
[11:57] {Threei}  nothing fresh on IBM
[11:57] {cipher} thx
[11:59] {dino} ceg drop
[12:01] {dino} news?
[12:01] {Threei}  yes
[12:02] {Threei}  CEG US Govt files lawsuit to prevent merger with Exelon - financial press - Note: In November Shareholders approved merger with Exelon where Constellations
[12:02] {Threei}  shareholders will receive 0.930 shares of Exelon common stock in exchange for each share of Constellation common stock (implied $38.59/shr in stock)
[12:03] {dino} ty
[12:07] {RonS} DOJ Clears Exelon-Constellation Energy Merger, With Conditions       12/21 10:06 AM
[12:07] {RonS} DOJ: Companies To Divest Three Electricity Generating Plants In Maryland       12/21 10:06 AM
[12:09] {RonS} can you spell flush?...
[12:09] {dino} wow
[12:09] {dino} f-job more like it
[12:16] {Threei}  look at this:
[12:16] {Threei}  Constellation Energy Group Inc US Govt will approve Exelon merger with conditions - financial press (corrected)- Approval conditions will require divestiture three electricity generation plans in Maryland. - Note: the initial financial press report made it appear as though regulators were preparing to file a lawsuit to prevent the merger.
[12:21] {RonS} thanks dave...
[12:21] {RonS} :)
[12:28] {Threei}  EU) S&P comments on EU rescue funds; sees capacity possibility declined by a third following any possible downgrade of France
[12:29] {Threei}  Estimates decline of fund to approx �295B
[12:32] {RonS} things that make you go hmmm:
[12:44] {Threei}  Iowa: Romney 25% Paul 20% Gingrich 17%
[13:49] {RonS} simon & garfunkel?
[13:49] {Threei}  umm?
[13:49] {RonS} sounds of silence
[13:50] {RonS} so, would you call btu a c&h?
[13:51] {Threei}  the ugliest one I've ever seen
[13:52] {RonS} ok, will keep looking for one uglier...
[13:53] {Threei}  hehe
[13:59] {RonS} lol...Larry Ellison is now only part of the 1.25% today
[14:00] {RonS} The person I feel really bad for is Larry Ellison. Wait, a second. No I don't.
[14:05] {Threei}  heh
[14:05] {Threei}  that "99%" crap really took life on its own, eh
[14:43] {RonS} of so how bored am i?  heard sp downgraded hungary to junk and thought of this:
[14:44] {Threei}  lol
[14:45] {RonS} classic...right up there w/ "drop kick me jesus through the goal posts of life"
[14:48] {Threei}  there is a confidence vote in Italy tomorrow re: austerity measures
[14:49] {Threei}  I guess non-event
[14:49] {RonS} a case for summary execution imo:
[14:51] {Threei}  (US) Fitch: Updates fiscal projections for US
[14:51] {Threei}  I wait in trepidation
[14:54] {Threei}  - failure of the Congressional Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction (the so-called Super Committee) to agree on at least USD1.2 trillion of deficit reduction measures underlines the challenge of securing broad-based consensus on how to reduce the outsize budget deficit and contain the rise in federal debt.
[14:54] {Threei}  By postponing the difficult decisions on tax and spending until after the forthcoming Congressional and Presidential elections, the scale and pace of required deficit reduction will consequently be greater. Even under optimistic economic and fiscal policy assumptions, Fitch believes that at least USD3.5 trillion of additional deficit reduction measures will be required to stabilise federal debt (held by the public) at around 90% of GDP in the latter half of the current decade.
[14:55] {Threei}  Fitch's latest fiscal and economic projections imply that federal debt held by the public will exceed 90% of GDP by the end of the decade. Federal debt will rise in the absence of expenditure and tax reforms that would address the challenges of rising health and social security spending as the population ages. The high and rising federal and general government debt burden is not consistent with the U.S. retaining its 'AAA' status despite its other fundamental sovereign credit strengths.
[14:55] {Threei}  The Rating Outlook on the U.S. 'AAA' sovereign rating was revised to Negative from Stable on Nov. 28, 2011 in light of revisions to Fitch's medium-term fiscal projections following the failure of the Super Committee to reach an agreement. This reflects Fitch's declining confidence that timely fiscal measures necessary to place U.S. public finances on a sustainable path and secure the 'AAA' sovereign rating will be forthcoming.
[14:55] {Threei}  In the absence of material shocks, Fitch does not expect to resolve the Rating Outlook until 2013.
[14:55] {Threei}  A key task of an incoming Congress and Administration in 2013 is to formulate a credible plan to reduce the budget deficit and stabilise the federal debt burden. Without such a strategy, the sovereign rating will likely be lowered by the end of 2013. Agreement will also have to be reached on raising the federal debt ceiling, which is expected to become binding in the first half of 2013.
[15:00] {RonS} Merry Christmas to all...out until next wednesday...little california trip to the beach
[15:00] {RonS} ;)
[15:00] {Threei}  nice
[15:00] {Threei}  have fun'
[15:01] {Threei}  Merry Christmas
[15:01] {RonS} ty
[15:01] {Threei}  volume less and less ever day
[15:01] {Threei}  holiday trading at its best
[15:33] {Threei}  ETR Reports that it has discovered a small amount of Tritium (radioactive substance) in a Connecticut river near the Vermont Yankee nuclear reactor - financial press
[15:33] {Threei}  gret... just what we need
[15:43] {JK13} Thanks and have a nice evening Vad
[15:43] {Threei}  have a good one jk
[15:44] {Threei}  I too vcan't stand all the excitement anymore
[15:44] {Threei}  thank you all, have a good evning guys
[15:44] {Threei}  let's continue tomorrow