Thursday, December 8, 2011

Dec 08 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership. Free trial is available)

6 calls, 6 wins - who said it's a tough market? As long as you pick your battles carefully... Tomorrow will be very interesting day.

Session Time: Thu Dec 08 00:00:00 2011
[08:33] {Threei}  (EU) ECB Draghi: To offer further liquidity measures
[08:34] {nemo}
[08:34] {nemo} kinda' what I've been thinking for quite a while
[08:43] {Threei}  *(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 381K V 395KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.583M V 3.70ME- Prior Initial Claims revised higher from 402K to 404K - Prior Continuing Claims higher from 3.74M to 3.757M
[08:43] {Threei}  (EU) Finland European Min: Many indications that Europe will find a solution
[08:44] {Threei}  translation: we may have located the can; we are arguing who will have to kick it
[09:01] {Threei}  entusiasm was not very long-lived
[09:06] {Threei}  funny enough, while politicians bicker how to save euro, banks prepare to exit it
[09:06] {Threei}  Some European Central Banks considering reviving currencies based on pre-euro currency notes - financial press
[09:06] {Threei}  - Some Europe Central Banks considering possible contingency plans for possible EU exit, entire break-up.
[09:06] {Threei}  - At least one Europe Central Bank thinking about securing more printing presses.
[09:06] {Threei}  - Several non-euro Europe Central Banks are thinking about possible replacements for euro external reference point.
[09:06] {Threei}  - Says the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is considering possible replacements for the euro as the external reference point (peg) it uses.
[09:06] {Threei}  - Ireland Central Bank officials have held early stage talks about whether they could have to buy additional printing capabilities if the EU falls apart.
[09:06] {Threei}  - Notes that the Bank of England (BoE) has taken steps to make sure that its ability to print currency is not comprised, if EU central banks rush to print currencies.
[09:10] {Threei}  EUR/USD Euro at session lows as dealers focus Draghi's comment treaty does not permit monetary financing of governments. (related
[09:10] {Threei}  (EU) UK PM Cameron: Will have no hesitation in vetoing 27-member treaty if deal is not good for Britain
[09:11] {Threei}  (IT) Italy 10-year gov't yields approach 6.20%, higher by almost 20bps
[09:11] {Threei}  reading EU headlines today and tomorrow may become a full time job
[09:14] {Threei}  Rasmusses figured out the way to calculate percentage of people who don't know the word "history":
[09:14] {Threei}  26% Prefer Government-Managed Economy
[09:14] {Threei}  the share of imbeciles is scary high, don't you think
[09:28] {nemo} hey folks..updated the post from Tuesday with a jpg of might like to take a look at it..hehehehehe
[09:29] {Threei}  make it easy on us and give us a link, will ya...
[09:30] {Threei}  keeping COST on a radar
[09:31] {Threei}  FCX, looking for bounce to short
[09:31] {Threei}  missed .40 break
[09:31] {Threei}  grr
[09:31] {Threei}  FCX, come back to pick us up
[09:33] {Threei}  SLW
[09:33] {Threei}  33 break short
[09:33] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  33 break if stays under .10
[09:34] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:35] {nemo} this better:
[09:36] {Threei} Short Setup: COST  85 break half lot
[09:36] {nemo} spy at significant support
[09:36] {Threei}  if stays under .15
[09:37] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:38] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .80 break
[09:38] {Threei}  stop .86
[09:39] {Threei}  target about .55, three partials
[09:41] {Threei}  cover first piece here, near .70
[09:41] {Threei}  don't trail stop yet for the balance
[09:42] {Threei}  worst case scenario, it will be a wash
[09:43] {Threei}  if missed first chance to cover, here it is again
[09:43] {Threei}  after .70 break trail stop to .81
[09:43] {Threei}  second partial here
[09:43] {Threei}  .62
[09:44] {Threei}  hit .56, 1 cent from target... I was a bit slow
[09:44] {Threei}  anyway, stop is still .81 for the last part
[09:45] {Threei}  out
[09:46] {Threei} Short Setup: JPM  33 break
[09:46] {Threei}  if stays under .10
[09:47] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:47] {Threei}  that's what, 3rd invalidation today?
[09:48] {Threei}  sign of listless trading
[09:48] {Threei} Short Setup: MON  .40 break half lot
[09:48] {Threei}  if stasys under .55
[09:49] {Threei}  call for you cipher
[09:49] {Threei}  1:1
[09:51] {Threei}  (FR) French/German Gov't bond spread at approx 120bps, wider by almost 10bps
[09:53] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  33 break
[09:54] {Threei}  if stays under .10
[09:55] {Threei}  MON gave second entry at the same price... looked away for a second
[09:56] {Threei}  see that doji just above .40?
[09:56] {Threei}  that was the entry signal... from the last section of the new course
[09:56] {Threei}  OK SLW, let's do it
[09:57] {Threei}  bees do it....
[09:58] {Threei}  this stall is not typical for this time of the day in down market
[09:58] {Threei}  should resolve violently
[09:58] {Threei}  my best guess is, to the downside
[09:59] {Threei}  SLW, target's 1:3
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) OCT WHOLESALE INVENTORIES: 1.6% V 0.3%E
[10:00] {Threei}  .95 is last line of defense
[10:00] {Threei}  Maginot line so to speak
[10:03] {Threei}  broken
[10:03] {nemo} french punted again?
[10:03] {Threei}  let's the panic begin
[10:03] {Threei}  1:1
[10:03] {Threei}  standard procedure
[10:04] {Threei}  1:2
[10:11] {Threei}  out last piece on a trail
[10:11] {Threei}  OK, you can breathe now...
[10:11] {Threei}  anyone is conscious?
[10:12] {Threei}  knock knock... is this thing on?
[10:12] {cipher} just came in.... got delayed
[10:12] {cipher} car service apptmt
[10:12] {Threei}  3 for 3, no single word for 40 min
[10:12] {Threei}  too bad... MON call was just for you
[10:13] {cipher} i saw... too bad i coudn't participate ;(
[10:16] {RonS} jwm sm s .38
[10:16] {RonS} jwn
[10:18] {Threei} Short Setup: JPM  33 break
[10:18] {Threei}  couple setups today are like deja vu
[10:20] {Threei}  (PO) Portugal PM: Reforms in Portugal will move beyond terms of the bailout program
[10:20] {Threei}  while Portugal itself will move to some other continent
[10:22] {dino} cov jwn .10, +.25 ty ron
[10:22] {Threei}  nice
[10:22] {Threei}  nice
[10:22] {Threei}  sorry double
[10:23] {Threei}  RE distractions again dino?
[10:23] {dino} yes
[10:23] {Threei}  (BR) Brazils Fin Min Mantega: Any aid to be provided towards the EU crisis is conditioned upon further action by the Governments in the EU
[10:23] {Threei}  there is something horribly wrong about the idea of Brasil helping EU
[10:25] {patience} good morning
[10:26] {Threei}  morning partience
[10:30] {Threei}  let's scratch JPM
[10:31] {Threei}  lost read on it, too jellyfishy
[10:31] {Threei}  (EU) EBA stress test said to put total capital shortfall at �114.7B
[10:31] {Threei}  peanuts
[10:32] {RonS} out jwn .08 +.30
[10:32] {Threei}  nice find
[10:33] {patience} nice Ron
[10:34] {RonS} ty...wanted more...
[10:34] {Threei}  don't we all
[10:34] {Threei}  yet we settle
[10:34] {Threei}  JPM scratch was a good idea
[10:35] {Threei}  normally I don't intervene in natural course of the trade letting it resoolve itself,
[10:35] {Threei}  but this one fell into category:
[10:35] {Threei}  do not short a dull market
[10:36] {Threei}  and it became just that
[10:37] {thomcbell} y - with that multiple day + intraday setup in slw with silver tanking and market getting whacked and we only got 30 cents
[10:47] {dino} hitk sm l .15
[10:47] {RonS} brilliant:  BANK OF CANADA: very high risks Canada to be hurt if debt crisis worsens
[10:48] {Threei}  value added
[10:49] {dino} lol
[11:01] {Threei}  shapeless market at this point... something needs to start happening
[11:02] {_michael} jpm made a double top at 10:53.  why no trade
[11:02] {Threei}  too narrow
[11:02] {_michael} K
[11:03] {Threei}  Merkel, Sarkozy to meet before summit dinner
[11:03] {Threei}  hmmm... what do they do Europe for appetizers , or pre-dinner drink?
[11:10] {Threei}  watching FAZ for pullback entry
[11:10] {Threei}  around .55 - .60
[11:15] {Threei}  (US) Senate Republicans block confirmation of Pres Obama's nominee for head of consumer protection bureau through filibuster- President Obama schedules statement to address blockage
[11:15] {Threei}  sigh
[11:23] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .75 break
[11:23] {Threei}  invalidated
[11:23] {Threei}  .70 break now
[11:24] {Threei}  stop under .60
[11:25] {Threei}  trail to .64
[11:25] {Threei}  1:1
[11:25] {Threei}  half out here
[11:25] {Threei}  scalpers be happy
[11:25] {Threei}  trail to balance to .68
[11:27] {Threei}  want to try for milk trade with this one
[11:27] {Threei}  offer 1/4 more around .95
[11:28] {Threei}  and trail for the rest for 40 break and sharp spike
[11:28] {Threei}  1/4 more out
[11:28] {Threei}  +.19
[11:28] {Threei}  u,,
[11:28] {Threei}  +.24
[11:29] {Threei}  stop b/e
[11:29] {Threei}  let's see if we can get real move out of this
[11:29] {Threei}  about 20-30 cents more
[11:30] {Threei}  1:3
[11:32] {RonS} dino, see an entry for IVC?
[11:32] {Threei}  anyone is in FAZ still?
[11:33] {Threei}  or was?
[11:33] {Threei}  why do I bother... bunch of sleepyheads
[11:34] {dino} no let me look
[11:34] {_michael} last 1/3 out at 39.98
[11:34] {Threei}  whew... someone listens
[11:34] {_michael} great trade
[11:34] {Threei}  ty
[11:36] {dino} ivc, gut around 15 as exp next week
[11:37] {dino} news not good
[11:37] {Threei}  good boy FAZ
[11:38] {dino} or maybe sm l break .60, that was recent r
[11:38] {Threei}  out .24
[11:38] {Threei}  +.48
[11:38] {dino} 07 red
[11:38] {Threei}  whe the plan comes together like this...
[11:38] {RonS} thnks dino
[11:38] {_michael} went back in at 40.02 FAZ is my buddy
[11:38] {Threei}  lol... you have a strange choice of friends but whatever works
[11:38] {Threei}  better than nemo's anyway
[11:38] {Threei}  he has a bunny for a friend
[11:39] {_michael} LOL
[11:39] {Threei}  so, according to some estimates
[11:40] {Threei}  about 700 B euros of EU debt maturities have to be rolled over in 2012,
[11:40] {Threei}  about 250 in firast Q alone,
[11:40] {Threei}  and all they could refinance last month was 9B
[11:41] {Threei}  this is so over..
[11:41] {RonS} simple really...have them call ese...
[11:42] {Threei}  I dunno.. 300B, maybe 500B he could help them with... 700, I am not sure
[11:43] {RonS} ya, i hear ya...
[11:44] {Threei}  president on TV, reminded me the words I grew to hate over last month or so:
[11:44] {Threei}  "fair share"
[11:45] {dino} the "looters" language
[11:46] {Threei}  looters and moochers
[11:46] {dino} who is john galt
[11:46] {Threei}  I am afraid we will find out...
[11:47] {RonS} lol...more summits...:
[11:57] {RonS} f  news halt
[12:01] {RonS} Ford Motor: Qtrly Div Begins At Level Sustainable Through Economic Cycles       12/08 10:01 AM
[12:01] {RonS} Ford Motor: Made Progress In Cutting Debt, Generating Consistent Positive Earnings, Cash Flow       12/08 10:01 AM
[12:01] {Threei}  F reinstated dividend
[12:02] {RonS} Ford Motor Resumes Dividend Of 5c }F       12/08 10:00 AM
[12:27] {Threei}  (GE) Germany Chancellor: Euro has lost credibility; EU must restore the credibility, EMU needs rules to be more binding; this will be a step by step process
[12:27] {Threei}  - Would like to see more powers from the EU commission and courts
[12:27] {Threei}  - Reiterates work towards a significant step towards a stable union
[12:36] {Threei}  who unplugged the market?
[12:37] {Threei}  did Merkozy trip over the power plug?
[12:39] {Threei}  sao, with many invalidated setups, those that triggered worked at 100%
[12:40] {Threei}  question is, will something happen without news,
[12:40] {Threei}  or we are to sit and wait for either news or for end of day activity as folks start position themselves for tomorrow
[12:41] {Threei}  anyone has anything to share, feel free
[12:41] {Threei}  anyone has any questions, ask them while nothing happens
[12:41] {Threei}  otherwise I am in deep coma
[13:26] {RonS} dino, ltd
[13:27] {Threei}  sheesh... woke me up
[13:27] {RonS} have a gong when someone posts?
[13:28] {Threei}  no, but it was so quiet, the sound of letters appearing on the screen spooked me
[13:31] {dino}  filled 12109 gap
[13:31] {dino} ltd12019 i mean
[13:32] {Threei}  want something delicious?
[13:32] {Threei}
[13:32] {Threei}  and
[13:32] {Threei}
[13:37] {dino} ltd looks like ex div $2
[13:38] {RonS} ah...
[13:38] {Threei}  isn't it amazing how white house is totally silent on the corzine issue?
[13:59] {Threei}  lol, number of solutions is equal to the number of those who open theor mouth:
[13:59] {Threei}  DK) Denmark PM: Prepared to contribute funds from the Central bank to the IMF to help deal with EMU crisis; could provide �5.4B under any such request- Sweden PM: No need to adjust treaty to fix crisis and Sweden wishes to be part of the crisis resolution; EFSF should be combined with the ESM to deal with the crisis. Would require too much time to change the EU treaty. - Finland PM: Supports stronger fiscal rules, could support adjustments to the treaty if deemed necessary
[14:27] {Threei}  market can stays in such narrow range for so long... wow
[14:49] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  29.05 break half lot
[14:49] {Threei}  stop under .95
[14:51] {Threei}  1:1
[14:53] {Threei}  1:2\
[14:53] {Threei}  like fish in a barrel
[14:53] {Threei}  5 out of 5
[14:54] {Threei}  aside of long perdios of inactivity, it's quite easy market, believe it or not
[14:56] {Threei}  I know everyone and their brother claim it's impossible to trade market, hardest in years, darn supercomputers etc etc... I have to call BS
[14:58] {patience} i agree with you Vad
[14:58] {patience} October and November have been good months
[14:58] {patience} I just had to trade when the market suited my style
[14:58] {Threei}  that's very unfamiliar place to be... no one agreed with me about anything for the last, umm, 40+ years
[14:59] {patience} looking at booze, cigarettes, dollar store stocks for volume/and momo to build once market direction re-establishes itself
[15:00] {Threei}  and guns if it doesn't
[15:00] {patience} forgot the defence sector
[15:00] {patience} but yes, last month gun sales were strong
[15:04] {nemo} watch these confluences coming up:
[15:12] {Threei}  I had to rteread it twice
[15:12] {Threei}  (US) Senate votes against move forward with Democrats proposal to extend payroll tax cut
[15:12] {Threei}  democratic senate blocks democtartic propsal
[15:12] {Threei}  OK... makes sense now
[15:13] {Threei}  but hey, they don't discriminate:
[15:13] {Threei}  (US) SEnate votes against move forward with Republican measure
[15:13] {Threei}  maybe they are just having "against" day
[15:13] {Threei}  now, this is something to decipher:
[15:13] {Threei}  (EU) EU Summit Draft: EU leaders determined to preserve integrity of the union; Moving forward toward "new fiscal compact"
[15:14] {Threei}  - Determined to bolster bailout mechanisms to address debt crisis challenges.
[15:14] {Threei}  if today is repetition of latest way to end the day, we will get some rumor or prtened news, some buying, then selloff on denial
[15:20] {nemo} anybody buy tna?
[15:24] {Threei}  kidding? no one taks to me, you expect them to ytalk to you, gun-touting bunny-friending pivot pointer?
[15:25] {cipher} lol
[15:25] {RonS} ohhh...the ultimate insult...pivot pointer
[15:25] {Threei}  lol
[15:26] {Threei}  (EU) EU Summit Draft: EU leaders determined to preserve integrity of the union; Moving forward toward "new fiscal compact"; Possibility of shift toward common eurozone debt issuance in LONG term should be considered
[15:26] {Threei}  - Confirms to bring forward introduction of permanent ESM mechanism to Jul 2012; Existing EFSF fund to remain active until mid-2013.
[15:26] {Threei}  - Permanent stability mechanism (ESM) to have maximum lending capacity of �500B.
[15:26] {Threei}  - Determined to bolster bailout mechanisms to address debt crisis challenges.
[15:26] {Threei}  - Evaluating new rule to make sure that budget deficits will not go above 0.5%/GDP.
[15:26] {Threei}  - Sanctions to be imposed automatically on violators unless opposed by qualified majority vote.
[15:28] {Threei}  isn't it amazing how bailouts became routine, and ESM became every day's necessity?
[15:28] {Threei}  new norm
[15:32] {nemo} that was a good insult Vad..having said the (expletive deletive) it's up $1.25 since I alerted
[15:33] {nemo} $1.50
[15:33] {Threei}  hey... I value good insult higher
[15:34] {nemo} Believe me, you should bring that one out again
[15:34] {nemo} gun-toting bunny-friending, FIBONACCI ASSED Pivot pointer?
[15:35] {RonS} dunno, never seen his or your rears...
[15:36] {nemo} oy frickin'
[15:36] {nemo}  vay
[15:36] {RonS} jus sayin....the rest we know is true...
[15:36] {RonS} :D
[15:38] {Threei}  ok... watching TZA for the last trade
[15:39] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .50 break
[15:39] {Threei}  half lot
[15:39] {Threei}  half out
[15:39] {Threei}  .64
[15:39] {Threei}  out in full
[15:39] {Threei}  .75
[15:40] {Threei}  how's that for instant gratification?
[15:40] {Threei}  news
[15:40] {Threei}  (GE) GErmany said to have rejected measure to provide the ESm with a banking license
[15:49] {Threei}  [15:14] {Threei} if today is repetition of latest way to end the day, we will get some rumor or prtened news, some buying, then selloff on denial
[15:49] {Threei}  to the letter'
[15:50] {_michael} Very impressive
[15:51] {Threei}  ty
[15:52] {nemo} O.K.  so I shut up about the short setup of SPY and IWM hitting their VWAPs simultaneously
[15:52] {Threei}  years of being in this day after day do count for something eh
[15:52] {Threei}  no... by all means provide those
[15:53] {Threei}  they are helpful
[15:53] {nemo} nobody listens...sniff sniff
[15:53] {Threei}  welcome to my world
[15:53] {nemo} guess I'll have to become a democrat
[15:53] {Threei}  let's call it Cassandra Syndrome
[15:53] {nemo} TZA for a buck
[15:54] {nemo} that's $2.50 on two trades in less than an HOUR!!!!!!
[15:54] {Threei}  hey, it was a good historic reference
[15:54] {nemo} yes, very nice
[15:54] {Threei}  and I havent made any single mistype in it
[15:55] {Threei}  wow. double achievement
[15:55] {Threei}  6:6... 100% day
[15:55] {Threei}  ok guys, tiomorrow promiszes to be very interesting
[15:55] {Threei}  looking forward, get a bag of popcorn
[15:55] {nemo} to the gun shop
[15:55] {Threei}  thank you all, jave a fgood evening
[15:55] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:55] {_michael} thanks for a great day
[15:55] {Threei}  very welcome