Thursday, December 22, 2011

Dec 22 2011

ATTENTION: new course on chart patterns is available now: 

Small profit day. Things worked for the most part but boredom worked to a greater degree.

Session Time: Thu Dec 22 00:00:00 2011
[09:11] {JK13} good morning
[09:11] {Threei}  morning jk
[09:12] {Threei}  I thought everyone's on strike, and forgot to tell me
[09:14] {swill} i don't know.  morning
[09:14] {JK13} strange
[09:14] {Threei}  hi swill
[09:14] {Threei}  holidays...
[09:15] {swill} i'm hoping for gap down
[09:16] {JK13} europe is up for now
[09:16] {swill} oh well
[09:16] {Threei}  there was a sharp drop at 8:39, no news to warrant it
[09:17] {Threei}  overall, this thin trading is not very indicative of anything
[09:17] {Threei}  even hard-boiled traders feel exhausted of this barrage of news and abnormal volatility, market becomes numb to another one, lol
[09:17] {Threei}  I have to say, this is probably the most news-sensitive market I've ever seen
[09:18] {Threei}  or more exact experession would probably be news=driven
[09:18] {JK13} Is this a sign og bottoming out?
[09:18] {Threei}  remember the difference between two kinds of news?
[09:18] {Threei}  no, not necessary
[09:19] {Threei}  it's a sign of great uncertainty
[09:19] {Threei}  reread the article about two kinds of news first, then I'll add to it
[09:20] {Threei}
[09:20] {JK13} As per Daily Telegraph, Europe is in verge  of QE
[09:21] {Threei}  if that materializes, we are likely to see a big rally
[09:22] {Threei}  whether it improves general economic situation or adds to the troubles is tottally different matter of course
[09:24] {JK13} GN, and be nimble and light
[09:25] {Threei}  totally
[09:25] {Threei}  see, when we deal with FSN, this is normal trading environment
[09:25] {Threei}  laypeople have troubles with this concept,
[09:25] {Threei}  but for traders it's like watyer for the fish
[09:26] {Threei}  GN is introducing huge uncertainty,
[09:26] {Threei}  instead of moving accoeding to streetsigns, traders have to wait for new temporary streetsigns to be erected
[09:27] {Threei}  so iinstead of smooth flow we have lurching movements, stop-and-go
[09:27] {Threei}  this is the best analogy I can think of
[09:28] {Threei}  I guess I need to add to that article
[09:28] {JK13} understood
[09:31] {Threei}  FCX
[09:31] {ese} jmorning
[09:31] {Threei}  if bounces into .95 zone should be a short
[09:31] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:32] {Threei}  ugh... no bounce so far, dropping right out of the gate
[09:32] {Threei}  will have to tgry to scalp a bounce I guess
[09:33] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .65 break
[09:33] {Threei}  if stays above .60
[09:33] {Threei}  very tight
[09:33] {Threei}  target .80 - .85
[09:35] {Threei}  first exit .75
[09:35] {Threei}  out in full
[09:35] {Threei}  that was pleasant
[09:36] {JK13} tks Vad +.13
[09:36] {Threei}  how often do you get first morning trade with 5 cents risk?
[09:36] {Threei}  welcome
[09:36] {Threei}  waitch for possible DB if dives into .60 - .65 zone again
[09:37] {ese} nice one vad......a watching akam
[09:37] {Threei}  SLW another candidate for DB
[09:37] {Threei}  if dives under .10 but holds 29
[09:37] {Threei}  ty ese
[09:37] {ese} am watching.......
[09:38] {Threei}  oh ese, do I have something entertaining to show you... look at AONE
[09:38] {Threei}  AKAM eh...
[09:38] {ese} will in a minute
[09:38] {ese} ya looking for pullback
[09:39] {Threei}  broke out instesad, and volatile like hell
[09:39] {Threei}  QCOM
[09:39] {Threei}  this thing looks ready tp be shorted
[09:39] {ese} spread is nuts
[09:39] {Threei} Short Setup: QCOM  .20 break
[09:39] {Threei}  if stays under .25
[09:40] {Threei}  target .95
[09:42] {Threei}  see how weakness starts showing up, stalling while market advances? Just needs market to downtick now
[09:42] {Threei}  risk is minimal, reward is lucrative
[09:43] {ese} S sm akam .01
[09:43] {Threei}  and here comes market help
[09:43] {Threei}  first partial
[09:43] {Threei}  stop to .21
[09:44] {Threei}  scalpers win this one
[09:45] {Threei}  another easy and pleasant trade
[09:45] {ese} out akam .03 -.02
[09:46] {ese} ahhhhhhhhhhh
[09:48] {Threei}  two sided setup:
[09:48] {Threei}  FCX .20 - .30
[09:48] {Threei}  half lot this time
[09:50] {ese} AONE at a 1.68.......this is the brilliant CEO who on the day of the IPO announced he was going to dilute shares.....smooth move right
[09:50] {Threei}  thought you'd remember that :)
[09:51] {Threei}  I don't think performance of this POS is fully CEO's fault, but...
[09:52] {Threei}  short it is
[09:53] {Threei}  there was an article yesterday claiming that each Volt costs taxpayers 200-250K, through various subsidies and givt programs
[09:54] {ese} volt?
[09:54] {ese} battery volt?
[09:55] {Threei}  no go FCX
[09:55] {Threei}  Chevy Volt
[09:55] {Threei}  electric car by GM
[09:55] {ese} hmmmmmm.......i can see that
[09:56] {Threei}  AONE was a part of that program initially
[09:57] {ese} I remember looking at their web looked good......
[09:58] {ese} although during crash testing........batteries started on fire I think......
[09:58] {Threei}  crash dummies refused to climb in the car
[09:59] {ese} rotflol
[09:59] {ese} that was a good one
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) OCT HOUSE PRICE INDEX M/M: -0.2% V 0.2%E
[10:06] {Threei}  rinse FCX
[10:09] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  29 break
[10:09] {Threei}  that was fast... 1:1
[10:14] {ese} AKAM....ever batteryready
[10:15] {ese} ever ready battery
[10:18] {Threei}  quick poll of financial advisors with a minimum of 15 years experience
[10:18] {Threei}  A majority of advisors called 2011 �The Year of Volatility� or �The Year of Uncertainty�
[10:18] {Threei}  A majority of advisors communicated with clients more frequently in 2011 than 2010
[10:18] {Threei}  More than half of advisors said their clients� mindset was �apprehensive�
[10:18] {Threei}  Majority of advisors are more worried about eurozone than US or China
[10:18] {Threei}  Advisors were evenly divided on what kept them up at night: running the business, the markets and keeping clients happy
[10:18] {Threei}  Only one-quarter of advisors said they slept well in 2011
[10:18] {Threei}  40 percent of firms grew by more than 10 percent in net new assets
[10:20] {ese} what was the poll for?
[10:20] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .30 break half lot
[10:21] {Threei}  financial advisors estimation of 2001
[10:21] {Threei}  2011
[10:21] {pragmatic} FCX ?
[10:22] {Threei}  never mind, wrong stock
[10:22] {Threei}  and invalidated anyway
[10:23] {pragmatic} how about FCX ss .38 ?
[10:23] {cipher} too much vodka this early? :-)
[10:23] {Threei}  fingers type familiar symbols almost like a horse that knows the road home
[10:23] {pragmatic} nice
[10:23] {Threei}  just the opposite cipher... not enough :)
[10:23] {cipher} lol
[10:23] {Threei}  FCX looks good here
[10:23] {Threei}  for 38 break short
[10:24] {Threei}  nice kangaroo tail
[10:24] {Threei}  half lot
[10:26] {Threei}  no go
[10:26] {Threei}  no news for this spike
[10:27] {Threei}  spasmatic market
[10:28] {Threei}  PIMCO forecasts 2012 world GDP growht at 1-1.5%; sees EMU entering a recession for 2012- Calls on the ECB to become the lender of last resort for the Eurozone; Eurozone economy cannot handle bank deleveraging sovereign debt issues simultaneously - Sees 2012 China GDP at 7%
[10:34] {Threei}  two falase breaks on FCX, let's ry to adjust to it:
[10:34] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  38 recross half lot
[10:35] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:35] {Threei}  oh, and in case you wondered:
[10:35] {Threei}  no news for this sharp red bar
[10:37] {Threei}  let's try .85 break
[10:37] {Threei}  with stop under .80
[10:38] {Threei}  target between .95 and 38
[10:40] {Threei}  out of bounds print at .95?
[10:40] {Threei}  I didn't see price actually going there
[10:41] {Threei} Short Setup: NVS  .15 break
[10:41] {Threei}  if stays under .25
[10:41] {Threei}  just a scalp
[10:46] {Threei}  nervous thin market
[10:47] {Threei}  no go FCX... should have just taken it off above .90
[10:49] {JK13} tks Vad NVS +.10
[10:49] {Threei}  :)
[10:49] {Threei}  shorted it aggressively?
[10:49] {JK13} yes
[10:50] {JK13} in @ .20
[10:50] {cipher} me too sorry out @.10
[10:50] {Threei}  gj
[10:50] {ese} well done gents
[10:58] {Threei}  totally chaotic market movements
[10:58] {Threei}  sharp down, sharp up
[10:58] {pragmatic} Xmas shopping
[11:25] {Threei}  wow PHH
[11:29] {ese} ya no kidding.....dive dive they say in the submarine world
[11:29] {ese} what was the news there
[11:30] {Threei}  cut by rating agency, unsuccessful bond issuing
[11:34] {ese} still tanking......seems a little severe....but.....thats the way of the modern investor......panic til you puke
[11:34] {Threei}  acts as if it goers out of business
[11:34] {ese} i'll say
[11:35] {Threei}  halt candidate
[11:35] {ese} speaking of how things are was the markt yesterday......was playing but couldn't converse with you all....this computer was in the shop
[11:35] {Threei}  not bad
[11:36] {Threei}  not superstellar but profitable
[11:36] {ese} it should be
[11:37] {ese} you going anywhere for christmas.........siberia maybe for the real snowy christmas  effect
[11:37] {Threei}  lol
[11:38] {Threei}  believe me, after 10 years of living in Winnipeg I've seen all the snow I ever need
[11:38] {Threei}  for the next 30 years I need no single snowflake
[11:38] {ese} ya...been there...except for only 5 yrs
[11:38] {nemo} I'm waiting...
[11:38] {ese} for?
[11:39] {Threei}  hello nemo,m we are glad to see you
[11:39] {ese} good morning by the way
[11:39] {nemo} thank you...nice to see you also, hope you're having a wonderful day
[11:40] {ese} ahhhh......ya win some......ya loose some......tried to read AMAM to no avail
[11:41] {nemo} Vad must have fainted
[11:41] {Threei}  we did... then you came in
[11:41] {Threei}  there... I am back!!
[11:41] {ese} lol
[11:41] {Threei}  your turn
[11:42] {ese} what are you up to for christmas nemo?
[11:42] {nemo} drinking and writing...can't hunt on Sundays around here, else I'd be out trying to kill something
[11:43] {ese} way da's thursday
[11:43] {nemo} your point?
[11:44] {ese} you said you can't hunt on sundays
[11:44] {nemo} Oh geez...
[11:44] {ese} you could be ou there
[11:44] {nemo} frickin' musicians...
[11:44] {ese} lol
[11:44] {nemo} you asked me what I was doing for Christmas, which is on Sunday!!!
[11:44] {nemo} Just came back in
[11:45] {JK13} Vad , do you think  NVS short at these levels?
[11:45] {ese} ohhhhhhhhhh.........i was drinkin on tuesday......still haven't recovered
[11:45] {ese} pardon moi miseur
[11:45] {nemo} this action looking potentially bull flaggish, however spy is at weekly R1
[11:46] {nemo} IWM the same
[11:46] {nemo} coincidence?
[11:47] {nemo} btw...weekly R1 coincides with the April 2010 high
[11:47] {ese} you saying weekly spyders lookin bullish?
[11:48] {ese} gotta break above 125 imo
[11:50] {Threei}  not sujre JK...
[11:51] {Threei}  the more I look at it the less I am sure
[11:51] {JK13} Thank you
[11:52] {dino} how goes it today/ still sidetracked on r.e. 
[11:53] {Threei}  back and forth...
[11:53] {Threei}  a bit in the profit but nothing to write home about
[11:53] {dino} so not missing too much, huh
[11:54] {dino} then it was good timing on the r.e. stuff
[11:54] {dino} you want to hear something crazy?
[11:54] {nemo} from you?
[11:54] {dino} yes
[11:55] {nemo} ok, I'm sitting
[11:55] {dino} i just bought a 3 bedroom, 1150 sq ft house for 27k
[11:55] {JK13} where about Dino if I may ask
[11:55] {nemo} yeah, there are some unbelievable deals out there
[11:56] {dino} northern poconos, ne pa
[11:56] {nemo} $42k for a 2200 sq ft townhouse 25 miles south of Boston
[11:56] {dino} thing has two separate lots with the deal
[11:56] {dino} wow nemo
[11:57] {dino} at these levels i must go back into rental business
[11:57] {nemo} yeah, some of the short sales sneaking by are unbelievable...that's not the norm, but you can find them
[11:58] {dino} good starting point,, for foreclosures
[11:58] {Threei}  seriosuly... good thing I was sitting
[11:58] {Threei}  come to BC for a price shock
[11:59] {dino} crazy huh. in my area this house will rent at $900/month. it needs about 10k in fix up, but do the numbers
[11:59] {Threei}  haven't checked in a while but I don't think you can find a house in victoria for under 300K
[12:00] {JK13} with Vancouver prices it is like reverse splitting 10:1
[12:01] {dino} years ago i had 10 rentals going, my rule of tghumb was you must do 20%. this baby will do 36%, time to start renting them again for 3-5 years
[12:01] {dino} the other rule i had was when a house cost less than average car, you buy the house
[12:02] {dino} opps, typo 25%
[12:03] {ese} congrats this still Philly area?
[12:03] {dino} no, 20 minutes from scranton
[12:04] {ese} hmmmmmm...ya got me...sheres that?
[12:04] {ese} wheres
[12:04] {ese} Ohio?
[12:04] {dino} northeast pa, the show "the office" is based on it
[12:05] {ese} pa? Pennslyvania
[12:05] {dino} y
[12:05] {ese} cool
[12:06] {ese} we rent out other house here for $2500.00
[12:06] {dino} wow
[12:07] {ese} mortgage is $300,000  assessment $820,000
[12:08] {dino} nice
[12:08] {ese} it's nuts
[12:08] {ese} property rich cash poor basically
[12:09] {dino} i understand that
[12:10] {ese} I want to remortgage it.....pull some equity out and golf Mertle Beach for 3 months
[12:10] {ese} like my wife will go for that the way!
[12:10] {ese} oh can dream
[12:11] {dino} you'd enjoy it, and so would she, it's a fun area
[12:11] {nemo} then you start the mortgage all over again
[12:12] {ese} yup
[12:12] {nemo} not a good idea
[12:12] {ese} ya figur
[12:13] {nemo} no, I said it because I hate the thought of you having a good time
[12:13] {dino} lol
[12:14] {ese} lol
[12:14] {Threei}  NVS cvontinues climbinh, jk
[12:14] {nemo} GS too
[12:14] {JK13} I am watching it 
[12:15] {ese} is JK on hide what he writes mode.......haven't seen anything he's written
[12:15] {nemo} you like to watch JK?
[12:15] {JK13} market wants to go up it seems
[12:15] {nemo} volume vacuum
[12:15] {ese} ahhhhhhh there you are
[12:15] {nemo} ?
[12:16] {ese} as Toni Turner says....."the market wants to go up....except when it doesn't"
[12:17] {ese} and conversely..."the market likes to go down....except when it doesn't"
[12:17] {dino} sort of like ghost busters, "where do those stairs go?" "up"
[12:17] {ese} lol
[12:17] {ese} yup
[12:17] {dino} showing my age on that one
[12:17] {nemo} joke among my hunter friends.  "where are the deer?"  "In the woods."
[12:17] {ese} and me for recognizing it
[12:18] {nemo} o.k. Stay puff...
[12:18] {ese} lol
[12:19] {dino} lol
[12:20] {ese} this conversation reminds me of some great conversation"my don't the walls look perpendicular tonight"
[12:21] {ese} or......"went out yesterday and bought me some luxuries....fur covered sink.....electric dog polisher......
[12:21] {nemo} of course, you were saying that in a round room, right
[12:21] {ese} lol
[12:22] {nemo} did you put in a ceeeement pond in the back yard?
[12:22] {nemo} now THAT'S dating myself...
[12:22] {ese} and of course who can forget this luxury.......the underwater barbecue!!!
[12:22] {nemo} anybody get the reference?
[12:23] {ese} ya....Beverly Hillbillies?
[12:23] {nemo} this bottle of rum won't make it till Xmas
[12:23] {nemo} oh yeah, ur old, I forgot
[12:23] {ese} lol
[12:23] {nemo} Ellie Mae ain't lookin' so good these days
[12:24] {ese} tere a recent picture?
[12:24] {nemo} within the last couple of Donna Douglas...I think that was her name...can't believe I remember
[12:25] {ese} gonna do that right now
[12:43] {ese} hmmmmmm wonder why the movie career didn't take off.......I guess back in those days there was no cross over between  movie and tv celebs
[12:43] {nemo} maybe she wasn't good enough on the casting couch
[12:45] {ese} hmmmmmm does pause one to wonder......she seems to have christian background
[12:45] {ese} ahhhhhh its a good life for her
[12:46] {nemo} that's the best anyone can hope for
[12:46] {ese} yup
[12:53] {ese} just reading about Max Baer Jr...Jethro
[12:53] {ese} degree in Business and Philosophy
[13:10] {ese} Those were good lives...Buddy Ebson, Nancy Kulp, Irene Ryan, Donna Douglas. and Max Baer jr......nothing like the over the top celeb stuff thats going on now....I remember watching the Beverly Hillbillies every week.......ya didn't want to miss it
[13:11] {ese} thats my bio reading for the day
[13:21] {Threei}  One-in-Four Americans Prefers Reading on Electronic Device Like Kindle
[13:22] {Threei}  I for one will feel sad about the end of actual paper books
[13:24] {Threei}  judging by what various offials say over the last days, US is gearing up for military actions in Iran
[13:34] {ese} really......for crying out loud.....let isreal do it
[13:35] {Threei}  that's one of the options
[13:35] {ese} "I'm mad at my jeans"  thats his name right......needs to be slapped for sure but it's time to take a break
[13:36] {Threei}  well, they feel they can't let him have nules
[13:36] {Threei}  nukes
[13:37] {Threei}  (EU) ECB's Bini Smaghi: Cannot see a reason why the ECB couldnt use quantitative easing if deemed necessary; Impact of the ECB's new liquidity measures will be felt gradually - FT interview- Euro Zone has no current need for QE because the ECB sees no risk of deflation. - The interest shown in the 3-year refi operation (LTRO) could be a sign that confidence is improving; will have to see if it helps to narrow spreads. - Reiterates that a euro zone breakup would be a disaster for everyone. - Euro bonds may not be the most efficient solution for Europe in the long run.
[13:37] {ese} Ahmadinejad........ya thats it......I like "I'm mad at my jeans better".....ya no for sure.....he's pretty stupid...can't really allow a goof like that to be in charge of anything major like nukes
[14:07] {Threei}  NWSA Softbank is planning to liquidate JV with Myspace
[14:07] {Threei}  Myspace still exists??
[14:08] {Threei}  amazing.. superpopular thing went deserted overnight
[14:21] {JK13} .
[14:23] {Threei}  interesting point
[14:24] {JK13} :)
[14:26] {ese} signing off all...cya tomorrow
[14:26] {Threei}  take care ese, but please,
[14:26] {Threei}  whatever you - do not invest your life savings in AONE
[14:27] {Threei}  promise?
[14:27] {Threei}  he decided to think it over till tomorrow
[14:49] {dino}  lre crazy, another fjob halt
[14:49] {Threei}  circuit breaker
[14:49] {Threei}  don't see actual news
[15:15] {dino} calling it a week, merry xmas all
[15:15] {JK13} merry xmas Dino
[15:15] {Threei}  taje care dino, merry christmas
[15:15] {Threei}  see you tuesday?
[15:15] {Threei}  you know Mon is day off
[15:16] {dino} yes
[15:17] {Threei}  OK... some don't
[15:17] {Threei}  then again, some try to talk in the room at 3 am and send resentful e-mails "why no one answers"
[15:18] {dino} :)
[15:24] {JK13} took FCX from .33 to .54
[15:24] {Threei}  good it worked
[15:24] {Threei}  I looked at it,
[15:25] {Threei}  and was tempted,
[15:25] {Threei}  then remembered how many times this kind of setup failed over last couple days
[15:25] {Threei}  and decided not to push it
[15:25] {JK13} if you dont mind, what was the reason to not take it chart wise
[15:26] {Threei}  chart was right
[15:26] {Threei}  simply the fact that this kind of trades failed more oftebn than usually this week
[15:59] {Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening, see you tomorrow
[16:01] {JK13} thanks Vad have a great evening