Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Jan 31 2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  

Nice steady day with enough good trades to make it worth our while.

Session Time: Tue Jan 31 00:00:00 2012
[08:48] {dino} gm
[08:49] {dino} problem w/mibbit yesterday, seems ok today
[08:49] {Threei}  morning dino
[08:49] {Threei}  yeah, mibbit went down for about an hour
[08:50] {Threei}  came bacl online at about 3:35
[08:50] {Threei}  mirc connection was fine so our server was OK
[09:02] {Threei}  my feel is, market is highly confused and, not being able to figure out distant future (beyond couple days), makes short term gyrations on the latest headline. This will continue until EU situation clears up
[09:02] {nemo} I can identify
[09:02] {nemo} with it
[09:02] {Threei}  the great battle of "it all goes to hell in a handbasket" vs. "they will print their way out of it anyway"
[09:03] {Threei}  but you don't gyrate, do you
[09:03] {dino} printing
[09:03] {Threei}  please tell me you don't
[09:03] {Threei}  dancer's hip is painful I hear
[09:15] {stewy} good morning Vad and crew
[09:15] {Threei}  stewy :)
[09:15] {nemo} stewster
[09:16] {stewy} looks like I missed a few scalps yesterday afternoon
[09:16] {Threei}  yeah, a few of them worked fine, especially if one kept expectations low and took sure scalps
[09:21] {rambler} gm...
[09:21] {Threei}  rambler :)
[09:21] {Threei}  SLW is interesting for breakout
[09:25] {Threei}  I'd really prefer a pullback
[09:30] {Threei}  yeah right
[09:30] {ese} gm
[09:30] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:30] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .40 break
[09:30] {Threei}  if stays under .50
[09:31] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .50 break
[09:32] {Threei}  if stays under .60
[09:33] {Threei}  if SPY drops fast, take aggressive .55 break
[09:33] {ese} L ree .38
[09:35] {ese} out ree .59 +.21
[09:35] {Threei}  not ready yet
[09:36] {ese} nahhhhhh   I was totally ready
[09:36] {Threei}  lol
[09:37] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .80 break
[09:37] {Threei}  half lot
[09:38] {Threei}  change to .85 break if stays under .95
[09:40] {Threei}  in
[09:40] {Threei}  target .65
[09:41] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .68 break
[09:41] {Threei}  stop above .75 scalpers, .80 day traders
[09:42] {Threei}  wow
[09:42] {Threei}  1:1
[09:42] {Threei}  1:2
[09:42] {Threei}  FCX, you blind?
[09:42] {Threei}  out SLW in full
[09:43] {Threei}  +.28
[09:43] {Threei}  cover FCX if breaks .90
[09:43] {Threei}  what the deuce... no news for such drop
[09:44] {RonS} chi pmi
[09:44] {Threei}  argh... forgot about them
[09:44] {Threei}  ty
[09:45] {Threei}  *(US) JAN CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER: 60.2 V 63.0E
[09:45] {Threei}  FCX 1"1
[09:46] {Threei}  stop to .86
[09:47] {Threei}  covered S LW too soon
[09:47] {Threei}  FCX, scalpers win
[09:49] {Threei}  watching SLW for bounce
[09:49] {Threei}  around .10 - .15 will be interested
[09:52] {Threei}  bottomed out at .16, lol
[09:53] {Threei}  changing my view on FCX to potential long
[09:53] {Threei}  amazing stamina in face of such market drop
[09:54] {Threei}  not anymore
[09:54] {Threei}  scratch that
[09:55] {pragmatic} :)
[09:55] {Threei}  watching MON
[09:56] {Threei}  long, half lot, looking for entry
[09:57] {Threei} Long Setup:  MON  .70 break
[09:57] {Threei}  ugh, late by 1 microsecond
[09:57] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .25 break
[09:57] {Threei}  if stays above .15
[09:58] {Threei}  if you got MON, a) you are from planet Krypton and b) feel free to exit
[09:59] {stewy} no chance
[09:59] {Threei}  only earthlings here
[10:00] {Threei}  cons conf 61.1 vs 68E
[10:00] {dino} slw stopped
[10:00] {Threei}  no go SLW
[10:01] {Threei}  what happened to all shining economic numbers
[10:01] {Threei}  ok MON, this could be second chance
[10:01] {Threei}  remember, half lot
[10:01] {Threei}  .55 break
[10:02] {Threei} Long Setup:  MON  .55 break
[10:02] {Threei}  stop under .45
[10:02] {Threei}  1:1
[10:03] {stewy} geez no fill
[10:03] {Threei}  huh? .56 and .57 were easy
[10:03] {stewy} nope
[10:03] {stewy} .57 and not filled
[10:05] {Threei}  either something is misconfigured so your orders are not routing out so they don't sweep all books,
[10:05] {Threei}  or your connection is a bit slow
[10:05] {Threei}  make suree route out is checked
[10:05] {stewy} ok. I'm using arca
[10:05] {Threei}  providing you are using Laser
[10:06] {stewy} no, LS
[10:06] {Threei}  oh... sorry, don't know about that
[10:06] {cc_8} i recommended nasdaq
[10:06] {Threei}  yeah
[10:06] {cc_8} if you are having trouble with fills
[10:06] {cc_8} a tad more expensive, but if your worried about good fills, nasdaq would be your best bet
[10:06] {stewy} yeah, it's not been a good morning!
[10:10] {Threei}  watching LVS for shiort into bounce
[10:10] {Threei}  also MON
[10:10] {Threei} Long Setup:  MON  .25 break half lot
[10:11] {Threei}  if stays above .15
[10:11] {dino} wab sm l .22
[10:11] {Threei}  over 1:1
[10:12] {stewy} ahh a fill, a scalp, a smile
[10:12] {Threei}  whew
[10:12] {Threei}  I was afraid to ask
[10:12] {Threei}  :)
[10:12] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .20 break
[10:17] {Threei}  no go
[10:18] {Threei}  rinse
[10:18] {Threei}  bastard
[10:19] {Threei}  &^%#(^
[10:20] {ese} lol
[10:20] {Threei} Long Setup:  MON  .20 break
[10:21] {Threei}  if stays above .10
[10:22] {Threei}  hmmm
[10:22] {Threei}  let's trail to .15
[10:22] {Threei}  this thing usually moves faster than this
[10:24] {Threei}  1:1
[10:24] {Threei}  1:1
[10:25] {Threei}  1:2 that was
[10:25] {Threei}  out
[10:25] {stewy} wow nice scalp
[10:25] {Threei}  life looks brighter stewy?
[10:25] {stewy} sun always shine above darkest clouds :)
[10:26] {Threei}  yes chairman mao
[10:26] {stewy} i guess i took brevity a bit too far, eh?
[10:26] {RonS} got mon for .21 thanks 3i  and lol re mao...
[10:27] {Threei}  :)
[10:27] {ese} cool bstop l ree .73
[10:28] {Threei}  that's ok stewy, let a hundred flowers bloom
[10:29] {ese} out ree .91 +.18
[10:29] {stewy} i also stopped looking at the P & L every minute
[10:29] {stewy} this doesn't help. i recall it from taoist.
[10:29] {Threei}  (if you look up the source of quote, you'll fully expect Lenin next)
[10:29] {Threei}  this is very good idea
[10:30] {Threei}  P/L keeps you focused on a wrong thing
[10:30] {ese} am outta here.......have an 8:30 class this term so it will be quick in the morning...cya tomorow
[10:30] {Threei}  take care ese
[10:31] {ese} cya vad
[10:33] {Threei}  http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/ron-paul/failed-fed-policies-prolong-the-agony
[10:34] {dino} ceva sm l .38
[10:34] {dino} gappy
[10:35] {Threei}  rofl
[10:36] {Threei}  *Alert** S&P MUST TAKE OUT 1325 IF IT'S GOING TO GET TO 1330
[10:36] {Threei}  no &^$%
[10:39] {thomcbell} that quote is shocking Vad
[10:42] {stewy} nice catch on ceva, dino
[10:43] {dino} mnro spike
[10:46] {dino} ty
[10:48] {thomcbell} gdx in pivot zone here
[10:51] {Threei}  quite rekentless selling
[10:55] {dino} feels like selling is almost done to me
[10:55] {nemo} tna long here
[11:00] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  49 break
[11:01] {Threei}  stop under .90
[11:05] {Threei}  stop to .04
[11:05] {Threei}  .04
[11:05] {Threei}  .94
[11:05] {Threei}  sheesh
[11:05] {Threei}  don't like this tail topping out at 49.07
[11:07] {dino} klac sm l .65
[11:07] {dino} vrtx crazy
[11:07] {dino} hp drop
[11:08] {Threei}  out
[11:09] {thomcbell} qcom 58.84 short entry half lot
[11:10] {thomcbell} if holds 59
[11:11] {Threei}  what now?
[11:11] {Threei}  new wave of selling
[11:12] {Threei}  gkad I tightened LVS, look at it
[11:14] {thomcbell} qcom 1:1
[11:14] {dino} hp vsm l .40 wide
[11:17] {thomcbell} 58.85 stop on balance qcom
[11:17] {Threei}  wtg
[11:18] {dino} gj
[11:22] {thomcbell} qcom out
[11:25] {dino} out hp.06, +.66
[11:26] {Threei}  wtg
[11:26] {dino} ty
[11:39] {dino} out klac .96, +.31
[11:42] {stewy} vad, do you see strength in a wfc breakout?
[11:42] {Threei}  very much depends on broader market
[11:42] {Threei}  and SPY is like a jellyfish with brone spine
[11:42] {Threei}  broken
[11:44] {stewy} ok,
[11:44] {dino} etr drop
[11:46] {dino} gap 68.35
[11:49] {dino} filled
[11:49] {dino} hmmm maybe not, other chrt shows 67.90s
[11:50] {Threei}  67.90s here too
[11:52] {dino} that settles it
[11:54] {dino} ppo blood
[11:58] {dino} amcx spike
[11:59] {RonS} ppo sm l .06
[12:00] {dino} ugh aqmcx missed s by .02
[12:01] {RonS} out ppo .80 +.74  thanks dino
[12:01] {dino} wow, wtg
[12:02] {Threei}  nice
[12:02] {dino} bit of pulp, huh?
[12:02] {dino} csgp drop
[12:02] {RonS} the cue was that capitulatory volume bar
[12:04] {dino} yes, amcx sidetracked me
[12:05] {dino} ceva to .90
[12:07] {dino} out ceva .94, +.56
[12:13] {dino} out wab .94, +.72
[12:13] {RonS} gj
[12:14] {dino} ty taking a break
[12:16] {stewy} wfc not taken.  now 1;1
[12:21] {RonS} halts are criminal...vrtx has news it trades and then halted for news...you know the thing is trading off market...
[12:24] {Threei}  how?
[12:25] {RonS} direct placement
[12:26] {Threei}  not sure i understand
[12:26] {Threei}  who is counterpart?
[12:27] {RonS} people making phone calls...ppo sm l .60
[12:32] {RonS} Vertex Pharmaceuticals to host a conference call
[12:33] {Threei}  Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc FDA discloses approval for Kalydeco to treat rare form of cystic fibrosis
[12:34] {dino} news ppo?
[12:35] {Threei}  nothing fresh
[12:35] {dino} two day death fall
[12:36] {Threei}  initiated with sell yesterday
[12:36] {Threei}  by Axiom Capital
[12:36] {dino} by who, god
[12:36] {Threei}  lol
[12:36] {Threei}  judging from reaction, no less
[12:37] {RonS} 'jus ax me...
[12:41] {RonS} ppo l .01 ave
[12:42] {dino} nice
[12:52] {dino} that ppo is a mess
[12:52] {nemo} RIG HA
[12:52] {nemo} HAL
[12:53] {stewy} this rimm breakout reminds me of yesterday's rip
[12:56] {dino} kors spike
[13:03] {andj} Good morning...
[13:04] {Threei}  morning andj
[13:04] {Threei}  OK, I fon't get HAL
[13:04] {Threei}  don't
[13:04] {Threei}  Halliburton Co US judge rules BP is not required to indemnify HAL from punitive damage claim and penalties related to clean water act in the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill - financial press
[13:05] {dino} also says they are required, two different news artocles'
[13:05] {andj} Hey Vad and nemo I was reading about direxionshares last night...sounds like they are trying to create volitility...
[13:05] {Threei}  mine says RIG is, HAL i not
[13:05] {andj} what does the 3x leverage and 3x short really mean?
[13:06] {Threei}  the higher number the more volatilty
[13:06] {Threei}  3x will move more than 2x
[13:07] {dino} required on cpmpensation claims not punitive claims
[13:12] {andj} Threei do you know what the 3x really means?
[13:12] {Threei}  leverage
[13:12] {Threei}  margin
[13:13] {nemo} plus they use calls and puts to create it
[13:13] {Threei}  underlying tool moves $1, derivative moves $3
[13:13] {nemo} in theory, not always exact
[13:13] {nemo} but....
[13:13] {nemo} ...it's more predictable then women
[13:13] {andj} so their portfolio is options
[13:14] {nemo} stock and options
[13:15] {andj} women...that's a totally different chat room...
[13:16] {nemo} hal
[13:16] {nemo} No....
[13:16] {nemo} that's a minefield
[13:16] {nemo} a bouncing betty minefield
[13:16] {nemo} you know what those are andj?
[13:17] {Threei}  (GR) Greece Fin Min Venizelos: Net prevent value (NPV) losses in debt swap deal could exceed 70% - financial press
[13:17] {Threei}  - Reminder: In recent days the PSI deal has involved discussions of implied 70% haircut to debt
[13:17] {Threei}  lol
[13:18] {nemo} what
[13:18] {Threei}  we spoke about 70% being beheading rather than haircut... now turns out even that is not enough
[13:18] {Threei}  when will they call it default, at 100% only?
[13:20] {dino} well why officially default when they discount it 70%
[13:20] {dino} whole things a joke and germans got suckered bad
[13:24] {andj} what is a bouncing betty minefield?
[13:26] {Threei}  something very nemo-specific I guess
[13:28] {nemo} when you trip it, it bounces to crotch level and explodes
[13:28] {nemo} German invention
[13:28] {nemo} what's up with PPO
[13:30] {andj} this must be a guys only chat room...
[13:30] {andj} kind of like the locker room at 24 hour fitness
[13:30] {Threei}  at the moment, yes
[13:30] {Threei}  but nemo is rarely stopped by such nuances anyway
[13:31] {nemo} yeah, everybody can sit back and chuckle at my breaches of decorum
[13:31] {RonS} hearing vrtx opens in 3 min
[13:31] {nemo} You guys think it, Isay it, and take the heat
[13:32] {Threei}  http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.aspx?id=TradeHalts, ron
[13:34] {dino} pcar sm l .85
[13:36] {andj} I doubt any one is really mad nemo
[13:36] {Threei}  and if anyone us, do not think for a second it would give nemo a pause
[13:37] {Threei}  us = is
[13:37] {dino} wow ppo on a simple downgrade
[13:37] {nemo} hehehehehe
[13:40] {andj} So Threei...do you pull stocks off the Intelliscanner or are you only trading the direxionshares?
[13:41] {Threei}  no, many alerts are from scanner
[13:41] {Threei}  our morning plays on MON came from there
[13:42] {andj} Do you have any material on how to use the scanner better?
[13:43] {Threei}  I wouldn't know what to write in it, honestly... :)
[13:43] {Threei}  it's just a common sense:
[13:43] {nemo} and you don't want him typing anything out for you
[13:43] {Threei}  alets are coming in, look at the charts
[13:44] {Threei}  when setup is there, you got your trade
[13:44] {nemo} jeez...I sold ppo short at 42.19, it dropped $2 in 30 seconds
[13:45] {nemo} Merry Frickin' Xmas to me
[13:45] {andj} It's just that there is so much stuff coming through the scanner that I don't know where to start...
[13:46] {Threei}  well, first of all, you may want to tighten citeria
[13:47] {Threei}  for instance, I keep spread setting at 10 cents, to cover any risk tolerance of difference users,
[13:47] {andj} I can do that
[13:47] {Threei}  but if you don't play stpocks with spread exceeding 3 cents, you correct that and boom, number of alerts goes down multifold
[13:47] {Threei}  same for volume
[13:48] {Threei}  next step is determining which alerts you play in what kind of market
[13:48] {Threei}  but that's more about your strategy than scanner itself
[13:49] {Threei}  to give you an example
[13:49] {Threei}  in a strong upward market, one trader will p[lay breakouts
[13:50] {Threei}  thus he will monitor windows JBE, 2 days high break
[13:50] {Threei}  another one will want to find the weakest stocks to short them on market reversal or pullback
[13:50] {Threei}  so he will be interested in DBI
[13:50] {andj} That's what I need to know...which window for which situation
[13:50] {Threei}  and 2 day's breakdwon
[13:51] {Threei}  and divergence
[13:51] {nemo} spend some time watching...screen time andj...SCREEN TIME!!!
[13:51] {Threei}  but I can't tell you that
[13:51] {Threei}  I can only give you an idea how to approach it
[13:51] {nemo} Blood Sweat Tears Vaseline Time
[13:51] {Threei}  it's you who designs your strategy
[13:51] {Threei}  and yes, however painful it is to admit
[13:52] {Threei}  but nemo's right
[13:52] {Threei}  remember 10000 hours rule?
[13:52] {nemo} Yeah, I thought it was simple
[13:52] {nemo} I came into the room, I'll just follow Vad
[13:52] {Threei}  well, it is
[13:52] {nemo} Then the mirror that is the monitor starts teaching you about yourself
[13:52] {andj} I had been looking for JBE in upwards market and DBI in downwards markets
[13:52] {Threei}  but simple and easy are very different animals
[13:53] {nemo} Trading is simple...it's just not easy
[13:53] {andj} but how do you use capitulation and euphoria?  Aren't they after the fact a bit?
[13:53] {Threei}  of course
[13:53] {Threei}  you use them to look for reversals
[13:54] {Threei}  they are exhaustion moves
[13:54] {andj} Now I  get you...
[13:54] {Threei}  wait, let me show it to my wife
[13:55] {nemo} it's a signpost to show you to pay attention
[13:55] {Threei}  she says no one would ever...
[[13:56] {Threei}  reversals is dino's specialty
[13:56] {dino} pcar to .20
[14:00] {dino} out pcar .25, +.40
[14:01] {Threei}  lol
[14:01] {Threei}  Today: the 1st McDonald's opened in Soviet Union; 2 years later the Soviet Union was no more.
[14:02] {Threei}  now we know what did USSR in
[14:03] {andj} So you use the scanner to find a chart...then do you look at the level 2?
[14:04] {Threei}  sure
[14:04] {Threei}  level 2 is a good way to evaluate risk
[14:04] {Threei}  and fine tune entry point
[14:09] {andj} So chart patterns are the main decision making tool.
[14:10] {Threei}  korreqt
[14:14] {dino} wab sm l .00
[14:16] {andj} So when you see a chart pattern setting up do you save it somewhere for later...or do you just keep going back to the scanner ? (kind of a time management question)
[14:18] {Threei}  if it's complteted pattern and I only need a trigger, I prepare a rade and wait
[14:18] {Threei}  if it's in the process of shaping up, I'll kreep haklf eye on it
[14:19] {Threei}  and watch for another
[14:21] {Threei}  (GR) Writedown on Greece debt swap deal may come on Wednesday along with requirements from an official body beyond the private sector - financial press
[14:33] {andj} So do you have chart patterns you trust more than others?
[14:34] {Threei}  I don't know if I think of it in these temrs... I just have a few I use
[14:35] {dino} waqb to .30
[14:35] {dino} wab
[14:39] {dino} starting to think ppo wants oct ,10 gap at 36.25 area
[14:40] {dino} out wab .34, +.34
[14:40] {RonS} gj
[14:40] {dino} ty
[14:56] {dino} jll spike
[14:56] {Threei}  this will never end
[14:56] {Threei}  (GR) Greek negotiators said to be attacking EU and IMF behind the scenes in reaction to demands for more concessions - Guardian
[14:56] {Threei}  - Papademos said to be planning a crisis meeting on Thursday to respond to the joint negotiators from the EU that have been demanding stronger austerity before release of next bailout funds
[15:19] {dino} gotta hop, thx all for ideas
[15:19] {Threei}  take care dino
[15:22] {stewy} cya dino
[15:22] {Threei}  I have a feeling of market drop coming
[15:26] {Threei}  one try to use it
[15:26] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .20 break
[15:26] {Threei}  if stays above .10
[15:37] {Threei}  stop to .15
[15:39] {Threei}  like watched pot, lol
[15:39] {Threei}  out with small scalp
[15:40] {Threei}  ok guys, thank you all
[15:40] {Threei}  have a good evening, see you tonmorrow
[15:40] {stewy} me too  nice scalp. thanks
[15:41] {stewy} gd night all