Thursday, February 16, 2012

Feb 16 2012

Slow climb... our most hated environment. Slightly positive to flat at the end of the day. Bored to tears, too.

Session Time: Thu Feb 16 00:00:00 2012
[08:30] {Threei}  (US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 348K V 365KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.43M V 3.49ME
[08:30] {Threei}  *(US) JAN HOUSING STARTS: 699K V 675KE; BUILDING PERMITS: 676K V 680KE
[08:30] {nemo} let the rally continue
[08:30] {Threei}  everything is peachy-rosy again
[08:31] {nemo}
[08:34] {Threei}  wait... wasn't ethanol subcidy killed recently?
[08:34] {nemo} no...and it never will be  Tocqueville's nightmare
[09:04] {MigC}  good morning
[09:04] {Threei}  Migc :)
[09:05] {stewy} morning all
[09:05] {Threei}  stewy :)
[09:12] {beau} good morning all
[09:12] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:16] {stewy} watch out for exploding electronic cigarettes
[09:17] {Threei}  really?
[09:17] {Threei}  wow... used one three years ago to quit smoking
[09:17] {stewy} news from Floriduh: elec. cigarettes explodes in man's face
[09:18] {dino} gm
[09:18] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:18] {Threei}  well... I guess it's true then: there os no safe form of smoking
[09:26] {Les} LVS for a short?
[09:26] {Threei}  first guess is, pullback at the open, then reversal and climb
[09:26] {Threei}  for the market overall
[09:27] {Threei}  no read on LVS for now
[09:28] {Threei}  FCX is a short candidate
[09:29] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .10 break
[09:29] {Threei}  half lot of course
[09:29] {Threei}  stop above .20
[09:30] {Les} 2nd entry?
[09:30] {Threei}  won't give it
[09:30] {Threei}  1:1
[09:30] {Threei}  if spikes in there from her, wait
[09:31] {Threei}  second entry is likely to occur higher
[09:31] {Threei}  SLW
[09:31] {Threei}  double sided
[09:32] {Threei}  35 - 35.05
[09:32] {Threei}  short it is
[09:32] {Threei}  0.6 stop
[09:32] {Threei}  .06
[09:32] {nemo} long it is
[09:33] {dino} clf sm l .50
[09:33] {Threei}  ?
[09:33] {nemo} sorry...things look a bit couldy
[09:33] {nemo} cludy
[09:34] {nemo} cloudy
[09:34] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .30 break
[09:35] {Threei}  half lot
[09:35] {Threei}  if stays above .20
[09:35] {nemo} that's pivot
[09:35] {Threei}  SLW target around .80
[09:35] {Threei}  with first cover near .90
[09:37] {Threei}  first part out SLW
[09:37] {Threei}  stop to .01
[09:37] {dino} out clf .88, +.38
[09:37] {Threei}  wtg
[09:38] {Threei}  LVS target 1:2
[09:38] {dino} ty
[09:38] {Threei}  1:1
[09:38] {rambler} gm...
[09:38] {Threei}  stop to .28 for the balance
[09:38] {Threei}  rambler :)
[09:39] {dino} sncr sm l .51
[09:40] {thomcbell} fcx 
[09:40] {Threei}  SLW scalpers win
[09:40] {dino} mon sm l .26
[09:40] {nemo} sloppy open
[09:41] {Threei}  LVS 1:2, out
[09:43] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .50 break
[09:43] {Threei}  if stasys under .55
[09:43] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:45] {Threei}  valid again, only with .60 resistance
[09:49] {Threei}  trail to .56
[09:50] {Threei}  out
[09:50] {thomcbell} dvn 72.99 short entry
[09:50] {Threei}  first stop
[09:50] {Threei}  good tightening
[09:51] {thomcbell} i suppose too far vad?
[09:51] {Threei}  DVN? yeah, I think so
[09:51] {Threei}  aggressive should be better
[09:51] {thomcbell} ok 
[09:52] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .40 break
[09:52] {Threei}  if stays under .50
[09:53] {Threei}  target 1:3
[09:53] {Threei}  1:1
[09:53] {Threei}  1:2
[09:56] {Les} SLW setup you see vad?
[09:56] {Les} .90 b/d?
[09:56] {Threei}  I'd rather go for 35
[09:58] {Threei}  better yet .05 break
[09:58] {thomcbell} German Ministry of Finance: A bridge loan for Greece is off the table ....DJ reports...     also     Treasury Official said US banking sector has 'material exposure' to EU crisis           may have been reason for that last pullback in futures (but popping again since)     
[09:58] {Threei}  with stop above .10 for scalpers, .15 day traders
[09:59] {Threei}  very confusing wording:
[09:59] {Threei}  (GR) Press reports indicate that yesterday, following Eurogroup conf call, the German Finance Ministry felt a bridge loan for Greece was not an option and the bailout program could not be split up - financial press
[09:59] {Threei}  - PSI offer could start Feb 22nd and end March 9th
[09:59] {Threei}  *(US) FEB PHILADELPHIA FED: 10.2 V 9.0E
[10:01] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .35
[10:01] {Threei}  half lot
[10:02] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:03] {nemo} anf
[10:03] {dino} sncr stop -.31
[10:03] {thomcbell} market failing at pivot 
[10:03] {thomcbell} spy
[10:03] {Threei}  *(US) Q4 MORTGAGE DELINQUENCIES: 7.58% V 7.99% PRIOR (LOWEST SINCE Q3 2008);
[10:03] {nemo} Ive created a monster
[10:04] {Threei}  can you see second term being cemented?
[10:04] {Les} I think its all a big coincidence
[10:04] {nemo} only president not re-elected was Carter
[10:04] {Threei}  hmm?
[10:06] {Threei}  Bush sr, Ford, Hoover
[10:06] {nemo} last 50 years
[10:06] {nemo} Bush was because of Perot
[10:06] {stewy} still watching dvn tcell?
[10:06] {nemo} Ford, you don't count
[10:07] {nemo} When you had an election between the two parties without exigent circumstances...incumbent is always re-elected, except for Crter
[10:07] {Threei} Long Setup:  X  .80 break
[10:07] {Threei}  if stays above .70 of course
[10:09] {Threei}  no go
[10:10] {Threei}  rinse
[10:10] {Threei}  disgusting
[10:10] {nemo} very sloppy trading so far
[10:12] {Les} s MPEL .87 stop above .95
[10:13] {Les} cover half here
[10:16] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .50 break
[10:16] {Threei}  half lot
[10:16] {Threei}  .35 stop
[10:18] {Threei}  no go
[10:18] {Threei}  backing off longs
[10:18] {nemo} Op Ex Thursday...chop chop chop...fold...spindle...mutilate
[10:19] {Threei} Short Setup: X  .90 break if stays under .90
[10:19] {Threei}  C&H fade
[10:20] {Threei}  target 1:3
[10:20] {rahulprakash1} 0.8 break?
[10:20] {Threei}  yes
[10:20] {Threei}  sorry
[10:20] {Les} no can short
[10:20] {nemo} wow yeah
[10:21] {nemo} no borrow
[10:21] {stewy} i can and did
[10:24] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .95 break
[10:24] {Threei}  if stays under 52
[10:25] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:25] {Threei}  (IR) US Govt intelligence officials said to understand that Israel has not yet decided on whether or not they will attack Iran - press
[10:25] {Threei}  what a stupid statement
[10:26] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  52 break
[10:26] {Threei}  if stays under .10
[10:29] {nemo} trend day up
[10:31] {Threei}  X is ready to die
[10:33] {Threei}  LVS, not so sure
[10:33] {Threei}  need SPY to lose 135
[10:34] {Threei}  no go LVS
[10:35] {stewy} out x
[10:35] {Threei}  grrr
[10:37] {nemo} I wouldn't short in front of IWM SPY freight train
[10:37] {Les} watch me
[10:38] {nemo} nice knowing you
[10:38] {nemo} not really
[10:38] {dino} out mon .53, +.33
[10:51] {Threei} Short Setup: UWM  43 break
[10:51] {Threei}  half lot
[10:51] {Threei}  if stays under .10
[10:51] {nemo} you mean rwm long?
[10:52] {Threei}  or tat
[10:52] {Threei}  that
[10:53] {Threei}  if UWM is shortable I'd prefer it over RWM long
[10:53] {nemo} yeah, I took tza
[10:53] {Threei}  better volatility
[10:53] {nemo} the long ones are hard for me to short
[10:55] {Threei}  1:1
[10:57] {Threei}  (EU) Federal Reserve officials said to be evaluating a range of options to help protect against the Euro zone issues - financial press
[10:57] {Threei}  - Aiming to protect against worst case scenarios
[10:58] {nemo} in other words: Katy bar the door!  Throw the women and children overboard!!
[10:59] {Threei}  my strong suspicion is, Fed is salivating at the thought of Euro breakdown
[10:59] {nemo} yeah
[10:59] {nemo} gonna' be a problem, but one less currency to worry about
[10:59] {RonS} why?
[10:59] {Threei}  a few reasons
[10:59] {nemo} no threat to reserve status anymore
[11:00] {Threei}  first, because EUR downfall means huge demand for USD,
[11:00] {Threei}  and USD strength opens almost unlimited opportun ity to print new ones
[11:00] {Threei}  without causing too much weakness, merely keeping check on the strength
[11:01] {Threei}  second, what nemo said
[11:02] {Threei}  they will print their way out of debt without ruining the dollar - best of both worlds
[11:02] {Threei}  plus some added benefits, like drop in price of oil
[11:04] {nemo} why drop in price of oil?
[11:05] {nemo} not sure the $ strength will counteract expansion of world demand and the need for Saudi to get $100/bbl
[11:05] {Threei}  EU breakdown, drop in demand caused by their depression, USD spike... it all spells oil drop
[11:05] {Threei}  what expansion?
[11:05] {Threei}  EU demand will be down, China too
[11:06] {Threei}  and just wait for Iran tension to be resolved one way or another
[11:20] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .05 BREAK
[11:21] {Threei}  .95 stop
[11:21] {Threei}  target .45
[11:21] {Threei}  three partials
[11:21] {Threei}  first closer to .20
[11:22] {Threei}  stop to .99
[11:22] {Threei}  firsat partial
[11:22] {Threei}  .19
[11:22] {Threei}  second closer to .30
[11:22] {Threei}  here
[11:22] {Threei}  stop b/e
[11:22] {Threei}  offer the last one above .40
[11:23] {Threei}  talk about instant gratification
[11:27] {Threei}  trail stop to .09
[11:28] {Threei}  last push is coming
[11:29] {Threei}  here we go
[11:29] {Threei}  out
[11:29] {Threei}  +.35
[11:29] {Threei}  don't tell me no one took it
[11:29] {Threei}  easiest trade of the day
[11:30] {nemo} wsn't at my desk
[11:30] {Threei}  ok... monastery, here I come
[11:31] {thomcbell} nbl 103.50 half lot
[11:31] {nemo} Well, you're married, so that means you're already celibate
[11:34] {Threei}  how about that, TNA
[11:35] {Threei}  (GR) ECB said to be open to exchanging holdings of Greece bonds for new bonds in efforts to help the Greece debt deal - press
[11:37] {thomcbell} 103.3 stop on nbl
[11:37] {thomcbell} 1:2
[11:40] {Threei}  you out tbell?
[11:42] {thomcbell} no 
[11:42] {thomcbell} about to be 
[11:42] {Threei}  partial?
[11:43] {thomcbell} yes 1/4
[11:43] {Threei}  ok
[11:56] {Threei}  (GR) Greece Conservative Party Leader Samaras: Cautiously optimistic about results to be seen at the Eurogroup meeting scheduled for Monday, Feb 20- Notes that Greece has done what was needed to receive the rescue aid
[11:57] {thomcbell} sold another 1/4 nbl
[11:58] {thomcbell} stop to 103.55
[12:01] {thomcbell} selling another 1/4 nbl
[12:01] {thomcbell} energy seems to be stalling
[12:04] {thomcbell} out nbl
[12:04] {Threei}  nice trade
[12:05] {nemo} see the GDX wow
[12:11] {Threei}  impressive
[12:12] {nemo} I do the multi time frame on those too, but wasn't looking...bottomed at weekly S3 to the penny
[12:15] {Threei}  wow
[12:15] {nemo}
[12:20] {Threei}  watching TZA for double bottom
[12:20] {Threei}  if dives to or just under .50, and holding above .40
[12:20] {nemo} iwm coming into support, spy threatening to breakout of bull flag
[12:21] {nemo} ;pmg tna
[12:21] {nemo} .91
[12:21] {nemo} partial
[12:22] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .55 break
[12:22] {Threei}  if stays above .45 scalpers, .40 day traders
[12:22] {nemo} if spy breaks resistance we're going to 136.25
[12:25] {thomcbell} huge cup forming on 10 min chart from yest high
[12:27] {nemo} adding above .06
[12:27] {nemo} stop for remainder is .89
[12:29] {nemo} ok. I wussed at .98
[12:30] {nemo} figures, spy holding trend
[12:31] {thomcbell} lvs mentioned on seeking alpha
[12:31] {thomcbell} goldman positive etc etc
[12:32] {thomcbell} no pattern 
[12:39] {dino} clf wow, back to close area
[12:45] {Threei}  OK
[12:45] {Threei}  TZA is ready
[12:45] {Threei}  target is about .80
[12:54] {nemo} like gdx long here?
[12:54] {Threei}  not really
[12:56] {dino} ntgr s .99
[13:01] {dino} tlt drop
[13:02] {thomcbell} lvs 52.51 break 
[13:02] {thomcbell} tight stop 52.44 
[13:03] {nemo} hope nobody is shorting
[13:04] {dino} ntgr stop -.07 ave
[13:04] {nemo} see must be buying
[13:05] {thomcbell} nuts
[13:05] {thomcbell} no buyers in it for days
[13:06] {thomcbell} going normal way on this lvs 
[13:06] {thomcbell} stop 52.44
[13:07] {thomcbell} invalidated lvs
[13:07] {Les} TZA
[13:08] {nemo} O would stay away from shorts for now
[13:11] {Threei}  yeah, new bout of strength
[13:12] {nemo} 136.25
[13:12] {Les} Yep .50 TZA was a trap
[13:12] {Les} see I do listen to you sometimes
[13:12] {nemo} spy hadn't even come back to the shorts today
[13:14] {thomcbell} rose 51.43 break 1/2 lot
[13:14] {stewy} i'm going to look on the bright side.
[13:14] {stewy} this is an education today
[13:16] {Threei}  you guys make it sound like a tragedy day
[13:16] {Threei}  I am, looking at the trades and see nothing of sorts
[13:17] {Threei}  but of course if you fall asleep during +.35 trade and wake up for -.15...
[13:18] {stewy} not a tragedy; i refer to these pivot point nemos espouses that pop up around entries
[13:18] {stewy} you had some sweet calls today
[13:18] {nemo} btw, things looking a tad iffy now
[13:19] {nemo} Wall St probably taking the rest of the week off with the Monday holiday
[13:20] {Threei}  holiday?
[13:20] {nemo} yep
[13:20] {nemo} what frickin' planet u from?
[13:20] {Threei}  crap
[13:20] {Threei}  lol
[13:20] {Threei}  who can remember these weird US holidays
[13:20] {nemo} yeah, it's honor Obama day
[13:21] {Threei}  "presidents' day"
[13:21] {nemo} knew that would get you
[13:30] {Les} that's it, I'm heading to the cellar for a bottle
[13:32] {thomcbell} lvs something here long but not going back
[13:33] {thomcbell} what do u think Vad
[13:33] {Threei}  chart says long...
[13:33] {Threei}  not sure I can bring myself to do it
[13:34] {Threei}  to me, this situation feels like: stay inactive if market continues climbing, spring into action if it reverses
[13:38] {thomcbell} rose 1:2
[13:42] {thomcbell} rose another partial keeping a quarter with 51.45 stop
[13:49] {Les} MACD indicating potential spy turn here on 15 min chart
[13:49] {Threei}  feelsa tired to me too
[13:49] {Threei}  and TZA .50 break looks justified
[14:00] {dino} qcor l .00
[14:01] {dino} well that sucked, stopped
[14:05] {Threei}  (GR) Germany Deputy Fin Min Kampeter: Greece must deliver on its commitments or face consequences; EMU ministers face difficult decisions at the Feb 20 Eurogroup
[14:05] {Threei}  wow
[14:05] {Threei}  he barks
[14:05] {Threei}  can he bite too?
[14:06] {Threei}  I can't believe the tone they take when speak to a sovereign state
[14:06] {Les} Germany forgotten their own circumstances in the 50's
[14:07] {Les} how quickly politicians forget
[14:07] {Threei}  Greece should have told them off based on the tone alone
[14:07] {Les} Greek President been doing that.
[14:08] {Threei}  it's not like Greece alone benefited from all this debt largesse
[14:08] {Les} Ironically, the Greek President is German educated. Speaks the lingo fluently
[14:08] {Threei}  that same Germany celebrated new markets and jobs based on this debt for many years
[14:12] {Threei}  still keeping TZA .50 break on radar
[14:19] {dino} cvi pop
[14:22] {dino} sm s .40
[14:30] {RonS} BREAKING: Icahn offers to buy CVR Energy for $30/Shr; can withdraw bid if company puts itself up for sale
[14:31] {dino} thx
[14:37] {dino} cov .20, +.20
[14:50] {Les} FCX 44
[14:53] {nemo} spy coming into trend
[14:53] {Les} what, the intraday trend?
[14:54] {nemo} y
[14:55] {nemo} spy bounce here, not sure how much though things definitely weakening
[15:05] {dino} vvus drop
[15:06] {dino} sm l .50
[15:06] {RonS} VVUS analyst: The FDA Will Likely Require a Large Cardiovascular Safety Study of Qnexa Before Approval.
[15:08] {dino} out .80, vvus +.30
[15:08] {RonS} gj
[15:08] {dino} ty
[15:09] {dino} damn, missed it at .20
[15:10] {RonS} are the only guy i know who can survivie an open fiel run into a machine gun nest
[15:10] {RonS} field
[15:10] {dino} never looked at it that way
[15:10] {dino} sm l .50
[15:11] {dino} out ,53
[15:12] {dino} sm l .35
[15:12] {dino} out .69, +.34
[15:13] {dino} too soon
[15:14] {dino} awwww mannnnnnnnnnnn
[15:21] {RonS} lol...$VVUS I've lost weight just watching this for the last 20 minutes...who needs Qnexa
[15:21] {Threei}  there has to be one more good trade somewhere
[15:21] {Threei}  lol
[15:22] {Threei}  VVUS used to be a butt of endless jokes
[15:22] {Threei}  back then, when its main product was erectile disfunctions
[15:23] {Threei}  good to sewe that since it switched tio weight loss priducts it still serves well
[15:24] {Threei}  used to be $80 stock... then viagra happened
[15:28] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .80 break
[15:43] {Les} need sleeeeep. outta here.
[15:44] {nemo} here comes my push to .25
[15:44] {Threei}  hate the slow climb mode
[15:47] {nemo} CMON SPY!!!  Don't make a liar out of me
[15:52] {nemo} It's Les' fault
[15:53] {Threei}  last scalp atemplt
[15:53] {Threei}  FCX .90 break
[15:54] {Threei}  time's running out
[15:58] {Threei}  ok... with no time left, covered .87
[15:58] {Threei}  lol
[15:59] {Threei}  awww
[15:59] {nemo} did you add liquidity?
[15:59] {Threei}  could have had 2 cents more
[15:59] {Threei}  yes
[15:59] {nemo} so you made money then
[15:59] {Threei}  and shorted .83 aggressively
[15:59] {Threei}  so yes
[15:59] {Threei}  thank you all
[15:59] {Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow
[16:00] {stewy} good night everyone thanks