Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Mar 27 2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html)  

Not only did we hit 12 wins out of 14 trades today, we also got nice juicy Catch of the Day to put an icing on a cake. Nice DBI with stop above .30 and 1:3 r/r. 

Changed our morning strategy somewhat, adjusting to changing market, the change boosted winning ratio nicely while cutting risk down. Read the comment a few min before open.

Session Time: Tue Mar 27 00:00:00 2012
[08:57] {nemo} my head hurts
[08:57] {Les} a drink will fix that
[08:57] {nemo} that's what did it
[08:57] {Les} a bullet will fix that
[08:58] {nemo} you're not close enough to shoot
[08:58] {Les} hehehe
[08:58] {Threei}  lol
[08:59] {nemo} got the perfect bullet for you too
[09:00] {dptl} good morning all
[09:00] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:02] {dino} gm
[09:05] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:10] {ese} morning
[09:10] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:11] {nemo} the top is in...my brother, a construction guy, just told me that the market looks good to go higher and that he thinks it's safe to invest in more risk
[09:11] {Threei}  not yet
[09:11] {Threei}  wait for a shoeshine boy
[09:11] {Threei}  and before him, a cab driver should chime in
[09:12] {Threei}  there is a traditional pecking order, you know
[09:13] {nemo} got his info from CNBC squawkbox
[09:13] {Beau} good morning you all
[09:13] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:13] {nemo} I can't take the optimism
[09:16] {MigC}  good morning
[09:16] {Threei}  migc :)
[09:16] {nemo} I can't take it
[09:17] {Threei}  tough life, I know
[09:21] {Threei}  dino has gremlins again
[09:21] {rambler} gm
[09:21] {Threei}  rambler :)
[09:23] {rambler} no trading platform...gotta reboot
[09:26] {Threei}  let�s change our morning routine a little
[09:26] {Threei}  since we start getting better follow-through in the midday, there is less need to cram most plays in first minutes where the risk is the highest,
[09:26] {Threei}  so let�s hunt for extreme moves to fade
[09:27] {Threei}  and wait a few min before going for consolidation-break type of plays
[09:27] {Threei}  sounds good?
[09:27] {Les} yeh was thinking same in post trade analysis this morn
[09:27] {Threei}  we may miss something but we carry less risk of catching disorderly ones which we have to recover from later on
[09:33] {nemo} fcx
[09:33] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  39 break
[09:34] {Threei}  if stays under .10
[09:36] {Threei}  1:1
[09:37] {Les} TZA here
[09:37] {Les} ?
[09:37] {Threei}  SLW on watch for bounce
[09:38] {Threei}  can�t tell TZA
[09:38] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .85 break if stays above .75
[09:39] {Les} MACD lining up on IWM  reversal
[09:39] {nemo} is the market trading?
[09:41] {Threei}  1:3 target SLW
[09:42] {dino} expe sm l .40
[09:42] {nemo} clear as mud this morning
[09:42] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .40 break half lot
[09:42] {Threei}  stop under .30
[09:43] {Threei}  target 1:4
[09:44] {Threei}  SLW 1:1
[09:44] {nemo} iwm spy lower highs?
[09:46] {Threei}  TNA 1:1
[09:46] {Threei}  SLW scalpers win
[09:47] {Threei}  TNA 1:2
[09:47] {Threei}  so far so good, 3 for 3
[09:48] {Les} FDX not joining the party
[09:48] {Threei}  missed FCX reversal
[09:48] {Threei}  had .95 break in mind but SLW and TNA took all the attention
[09:49] {Threei}  FDX, yes, short candidate if SPY reverses back down
[09:49] {cipher} ibm l .90
[09:49] {Threei}  .40 break trigger
[09:49] {Threei} Short Setup: X  30 break
[09:50] {Threei}  if stays under .10
[09:50] {Threei}  target 1:3
[09:50] {Threei}  play by the book
[09:51] {nemo} mos might be a short under .60
[09:51] {Threei}  no room for creativity on this one
[09:51] {Threei}  1:1
[09:51] {nemo} long if it breaks .75
[09:52] {rambler} took the scalp on X...tks V
[09:52] {Threei}  why .75... .70 break should be enough to launch this one
[09:52] {Threei}  sure thing rambler
[09:52] {ese} interesting struggle watching this mrkt try to go higher
[09:53] {nemo} no selling catalyst until earnings
[09:53] {Threei}  there you go, 1:1 for .70 break on MOS
[09:53] {ese} good point
[09:53] {Threei}  shoeshine boy hasn�t said his word yet
[09:53] {Threei}  thus, we go higher
[09:54] {Threei}  scalpers win on X
[09:54] {Les} do I count as a shoe shine boy?
[09:54] {Threei}  no
[09:54] {Threei}  you are too well read
[09:56] {Threei}  SLW nears original target
[09:56] {Threei}  must have rinsed our second half, eh?
[09:57] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .65 break
[09:57] {Threei}  if stays above .60
[09:57] {nemo} jcp .51
[09:57] {dino} wnc sm s .00
[09:57] {Threei}  not counting on much on this one, 1�2 max
[09:58] {Threei}  1:2
[09:58] {nemo} stop .44
[09:58] {ese} L Driv .85
[09:59] {nemo} partial at .60
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) MAR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 70.2 V 70.1E
[10:00] {Threei}  TZA 1:2
[10:00] {Les} out ty
[10:00] {Threei}  on triple lot too
[10:00] {Threei}  that�s 5:5 this fine morning
[10:01] {Les} yeh I maxed on that one. TZA proves reliable for short moves
[10:01] {ese} man...how do you judge something like that.....one up one dn......sheeesh
[10:02] {Threei}  hmm?
[10:02] {Threei}  you go long on for up
[10:02] {Threei}  short for down
[10:02] {ese} which is the most important here vad...confidence or manu....
[10:02] {Threei}  profit oln both
[10:02] {Threei}  and go drinking
[10:03] {Threei}  confidence weighs more
[10:03] {ese} tks
[10:04] {Threei}  those regional manufacturing numbers were pouring ijn all day yesterday, all were bad, none stopped market from climbing
[10:04] {Les} fine afternoons trading. banking coin and going to Aikido. c u's tomorrow
[10:05] {nemo} don't get your pajamas dirty
[10:05] {Threei}  take care Les
[10:05] {dino} sina sm l .29 pulp
[10:05] {Threei}  OK, to relax a little:
[10:05] {Threei}  A chart reader has a heart attack and lays recovering in his hospital bed. While still heavily under sedation, the doctor comes in and shows him his EKG chart in detail. After the doc leaves the room, the patient picks up the phone, calls his broker and tells him "Get me 1,000 shares of EKG. Make it market order!".
[10:06] {dino} out sina .69, +.40
[10:07] {dino} lol
[10:07] {Threei}  my guess is, gas prices supress confidence numbers
[10:08] {dino} wnc stop -.15
[10:08] {ese} lol........thought the punch line was gonna be sell........that would have been funnier
[10:09] {cipher} meli l .43
[10:09] {dino} sina sm l .99 out .35 pulp
[10:11] {Threei}  a bit unclear here, waiting a few min before looking for the next trade
[10:13] {nemo} stx might be a short
[10:15] {nemo} jcp another quarter .81
[10:17] {nemo} stop is under the whole
[10:19] {nemo} looks like it'll be .94
[10:21] {nemo} s pay .49
[10:21] {nemo} stop is .61
[10:21] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .10 break
[10:21] {Threei}  half lot
[10:21] {Threei}  if stays above 109
[10:22] {Threei}  target 1:3
[10:22] {Threei}  if invalidates, look for double bottom setup 108.90 - 109
[10:26] {Threei}  (EU) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble: There will be no need for more euro zone bailout in the next three months, rest of EFSF funds will not be shifted to ESM
[10:26] {Threei}  no go CAT
[10:26] {Threei}  first stop today
[10:27] {dino} affy drop
[10:27] {nemo} jcp stop to 37.09
[10:27] {nemo} took 1/2 pay at .41
[10:29] {cipher} +.53 affy thx dino
[10:30] {dino} affy sm l .35
[10:30] {rambler} SIGA L .41  stop .31
[10:30] {Threei}  lol, rambler found new ATM
[10:31] {rambler} wouldn't that be nice...lol
[10:31] {rambler} in my dreams...
[10:32] {nemo} scratching pay here
[10:35] {nemo} out remainder jcp .19
[10:35] {Threei}  48% Say Feds Should Drop Gas Tax Until Prices Come Down
[10:36] {Threei}  yeah, like that is going to happen
[10:36] {nemo} Obama and company want gas prices as high as possible
[10:36] {dino} out affy .65, +.30
[10:36] {Threei}  well, maybe not for an election day
[10:36] {Threei}  but the next morning, sure
[10:48] {nemo} arguably tna long here with tight stop worth it, but no strong catalyst visible
[10:48] {nemo} target would be vwap on spy and/or iwm
[10:49] {Threei}  catn�t really chose between TNA bounce or TZA break
[10:49] {Threei}  seems 50/50
[10:49] {nemo} yeah
[10:50] {nemo} lvs, sheesh
[10:51] {dino} out expe .50, +.10
[10:52] {Threei}  TZA win
[10:55] {nemo} tna might be ready for a bounce here
[10:56] {nemo} .71
[10:56] {nemo} small
[10:57] {nemo} don't like it scratch
[10:57] {nemo} wait until iwm hit's pivoto
[10:57] {nemo} pivot
[10:58] {nemo} me=wuss
[11:00] {andj} Hey Vad...
[11:00] {andj} Do you think you could email me a copy of my intelliscan login information?
[11:00] {nemo} 1;1 without me
[11:00] {andj} I can't find it.
[11:01] {ese} outta here....cya tomorow
[11:02] {dino} cya
[11:02] {Threei}  take care ese
[11:02] {Threei}  andj, see private message
[11:03] {dino} qre sm l .20
[11:05] {nemo} trip
[11:12] {Threei}  LVS on watch for long on pullback
[11:13] {Threei}  ideally, near 59, with stop under 58.90
[11:13] {Threei}  if dives under 59, here is alert in advance, so I can fall asleep:
[11:13] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  59 recross is stays above .90
[11:14] {Threei}  is = if
[11:16] {nemo} mpc
[11:17] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .80 break if stays above .70
[11:18] {Threei}  anyone caught LVS?
[11:18] {Threei}  that was lightening fast dive
[11:18] {Threei}  TNA 1:1
[11:19] {Threei}  I assume the answer is no
[11:20] {Threei}  *(ES) SPAIN FEB YTD BUDGET BALANCE: -�20.7B V -�9.3B PRIOR
[11:20] {Threei}  changing the question: anyone�s awake?
[11:20] {dino} y
[11:21] {Threei}  TNA 1:2close enough, out
[11:21] {dino} gj
[11:21] {Threei}  it�s either 6 out of 7 or 7 out of 8
[11:21] {Threei}  my math becomes fuzzy
[11:22] {rambler} beauty trade Vad....tks
[11:22] {dino} mapp? fda rejects and its flat
[11:22] {Threei}  welcome sirt
[11:22] {Threei}  -t
[11:22] {rambler} lol
[11:23] {Threei}  it�s not downright rejection dino
[11:23] {Threei}  a bit more nuanced
[11:23] {Threei}  here is full text:
[11:24] {Threei}  MAP Pharmaceuticals MAP Pharmaceuticals Receives Complete Response Letter from FDA for LEVADEX� (dihydroergotamine) NDA- In the Complete Response letter, the FDA requested that the Company address issues relating to chemistry, manufacturing and controls (CMC) and observations from a recent facility inspection of a third party manufacturer. The FDA also indicated that it had not been able to complete review of inhaler usability information requested late in the review cycle by the FDA. - The FDA did not cite any clinical safety or efficacy issues, nor did the FDA request that any additional clinical studies be conducted prior to approval. The Company is pleased with the FDA-provided revisions to product labeling and packaging, including correct use of the LEVADEX trade name. The Company continues to pursue approval of LEVADEX for the acute treatment of migraine in adults. - MAP Pharmaceuticals plans to request a meeting with the FDA to discuss the issues raised in the Complete Response letter.
[11:25] {dino} thx
[11:28] {Threei}  X on watch for bounce
[11:29] {Threei} Long Setup:  X  .75 break
[11:29] {Threei}  .65 stop
[11:29] {Threei}  just a scalp most likely
[11:31] {Threei}  1:1
[11:31] {Threei}  feel free to be out
[11:31] {Threei}  lunch time scalp
[11:32] {Threei}  easy money
[11:32] {dino} sm s mapp .88
[11:40] {Threei}  market strtas looking like breakdown
[11:40] {Threei}  if you concur,
[11:40] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .90
[11:40] {Threei}  if stays above .80
[11:40] {nemo} .14 pivot on iwm  .25 on spy
[11:42] {nemo} gs IC&H
[11:42] {Threei}  for hardcore scalpers stop can be at .84
[11:45] {nemo} A
[11:45] {dino} out qre .335, +.135
[11:46] {dino} oks drop affy spike
[11:47] {nemo} .91 long on a vad?
[11:48] {Threei}  either .91 or last shares at .90
[11:48] {Threei}  often the way to go with TZA
[11:48] {nemo} iwm bounced at pivot
[11:48] {Threei}  although this pullback makes me think of possible aggressive entry
[11:49] {Threei}  lwt�s see if we can get it near .80
[11:49] {nemo} iwm at pivot going into lunch
[11:55] {dino} cov mapp .68, +.20
[11:56] {rambler} got MAPP...tks dino..
[11:56] {dino} gj
[11:57] {Threei}  nice
[11:59] {nemo} pot coming into bounce time
[12:00] {Threei}  TZA invalidated
[12:00] {Threei}  change of plan
[12:00] {nemo} told ya...iwm pivot bounce
[12:00] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .80 break if stays aove .75
[12:00] {nemo} pot  long
[12:00] {nemo} .91
[12:04] {nemo} 1:
[12:04] {nemo} 1:1
[12:04] {Threei}  nice
[12:04] {nemo} not expecting much more
[12:07] {dino} gj
[12:11] {Threei}  stop to .77
[12:11] {Threei}  risk is next to non-existent
[12:12] {dino} panl sm l .53
[12:24] {Threei}  I�ll be penny-pinching pig and trail stop to .79
[12:28] {Threei}  1:1
[12:37] {Threei}  10 calls, 9 wins, 1 stop today
[12:37] {Threei}  can I go home?
[12:37] {dino} nsh spike
[12:44] {nemo} BHI
[12:45] {rambler} I guess that's a no...!
[12:46] {Threei}  what is?
[12:46] {rambler} on another note...prawn season opens soon....:D
[12:47] {rambler} no to you going home..
[12:47] {rambler} but you are home so forgedaboutit...
[12:48] {Threei}  oh
[12:48] {Threei}  that�s OK, I didn�t really expect the answer... no one is talking to me anyway, including wifey
[12:48] {nemo} stx
[12:48] {rambler} that could be a good thing...
[12:49] {Threei}  certainly
[12:49] {nemo} wife not talking to you?  be thankful
[12:49] {Threei}  I am
[12:49] {Threei}  this way I don�t have to pretend I listen
[12:50] {Threei}  1:2
[12:50] {Threei}  out in full
[12:50] {Threei}  triple lot
[12:51] {rambler} nice
[12:51] {Threei}  aggressive entry was right idea
[12:51] {Threei}  took patience but this is taken care of by falling into coma
[12:52] {Threei}  (US) Fed Chairman Bernanke: Threat of second great depression was very real; Great Depression was much more severe than the recent recession
[12:52] {Threei}  oh boy
[12:52] {rambler} what a moron..
[12:54] {rambler} they think we'll come out of this without major surgery...
[12:54] {rambler} a little snip here, adjustment there and all is well...lol
[13:00] {Threei}  unfortunately, it�s not a matter of science... it�s a matter of ideology
[13:00] {Threei}  keynesianism is ideology
[13:00] {Threei}  european style economics is ideology
[13:01] {Threei}  they are based on �doing the right thing� thinking, not �doing what works�
[13:01] {dino} sm l pot .98
[13:01] {Threei}  and what they consider �right� think is not necessary the same that we conside
[13:03] {nemo} oh shit, Les might be back soon
03[13:08] * Looking up dannyboy user info...
[13:12] {nemo} gmcr should be in for a bounce
[13:19] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .25 break
[13:19] {Threei}  if stays above .20
[13:22] {Threei}  1:1
[13:24] {dino} panl stop -.25
[13:25] {Threei} Short Setup: JPM  .20 break
[13:26] {Threei}  if stays under .25
[13:26] {nemo} can you explain that one to me ?
[13:27] {Threei}  rathwr GS/FAZ following play than on its own merits
[13:27] {nemo} ahhhh
[13:28] {Threei}  leading indicator/sheep
[13:29] {Threei}  invalidated anyway
[13:29] {Threei}  at least for now
[13:45] {nemo} dang
[14:04] {nemo} you see a setup long in GS here?
[14:05] {Threei}  50/50
[14:06] {nemo} iwas thinking break of .55 with stop under .48
[14:06] {Threei}  can go either way with the same odds
[14:09] {nemo} think it goest to 127
[14:10] {dino} nbix sm l .85
[14:23] {dino} oks sm l .25
[14:27] {Threei}  good call on 127
[14:40] {dino} affy open
[14:41] {nemo} hehehehe
[14:42] {Threei}  hmmm... never seen someone getting that entertaineed by symbol AFFY
[14:42] {Threei}  nemo, how much should I drink to be that easy to please?
[14:42] {dino} nbix stop -.07
[14:50] {Beau} vad, educate me  double bottom on X?
[14:50] {Threei}  could very well be
[14:50] {Threei}  .60 break
[14:50] {Threei}  if SPY helps, it�s a play
[14:51] {nemo} pivot at .68, not much room overhead in a dull market
[14:53] {Beau} nemo pivot?
[14:53] {Beau} you all use but not what it is
[14:53] {Beau} not sure 
[14:58] {dino} beau, go to freestockcharts.com for pivot, r & s
[14:58] {dino} scor sm l .20
[14:58] {dptl} good night all....see ya tomorrow...
[14:58] {dino} gn dp
[14:59] {Threei}  take care dp
[15:01] {Threei}  loss of .50 will invalidate X
[15:01] {nemo} sorry, beau Iwalked away.  Pivot points are calculated price levels that floor traders have used for a long time. 
[15:02] {Threei}  and in fact is a short triger
[15:02] {Threei}  with stop above .60
[15:02] {Threei}  late alert?
[15:02] {Threei}  see if gives second chance
[15:03] {Threei}  here we go
[15:03] {Threei}  same setup
[15:03] {Threei}  in
[15:04] {rambler} you short X Vad...?
[15:04] {Threei}  yes
[15:04] {rambler} k
[15:04] {nemo} that's a lot of volume
[15:06] {nemo} anf .26 long
[15:06] {nemo} got .26 and .27s
[15:06] {Threei}  SPY doesn�t really cooperate with my short
[15:08] {Threei}  stop to .56
[15:08] {nemo} frickin indexes
[15:08] {Threei}  indices too
[15:08] {Threei}  out
[15:09] {Threei}  second stop for the day
[15:09] {dino} afternoons are dead lately
[15:10] {nemo} no sellers because there's no place else for the money to go
[15:10] {nemo} earnings will tell
[15:10] {Threei}  OK guys, do I have a nugget of wisdom from high above for you
[15:10] {Threei}  are you ready to absorb it?
[15:10] {nemo} Vad, you're not supposed to share our conversations
[15:10] {Threei}  are you ready to admire it?
[15:11] {nemo} don't short a dull market?
[15:11] {Threei}  do you feel worthy enough to be touched by the golden hand of the sage?
[15:11] {Threei}  here goes:
[15:11] {Threei}  (US) Fed's Bernanke: Having 'too big to fail' banks is bad for the system - Q&A- Would be "great accomplishment" to do away with "too big to fail" for banks.
[15:11] {Threei}  who knew?
[15:12] {nemo} jeez, I might get 1:1 out of this
[15:13] {Threei}  especially funny (and sad) that the guy who says it is one of those who did everything possible to allow big banks to entrench in their TBTF position
[15:14] {nemo} i'm out
[15:30] {Threei}  awww
[15:30] {Threei}  X works now
[15:30] {Threei}  lesson in wu wei
[15:30] {Threei}  shouldn�t have adjusted stop
[15:38] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .20 break
[15:38] {Threei}  if stays under .30
[15:39] {dino} healthcare getting whacked
[15:39] {nemo} I would go long, spy bouncing likely here
[15:40] {nemo} whoa, 22 bid
[15:41] {nemo} frickin dow guys
[15:42] {nemo} let's see what's behind that .24 bid
[15:42] {nemo} nyse keeps raising the bid
[15:43] {Threei}  np, that big one stays in place
[15:44] {nemo} yeah, interesting set up just above .20 drop and rebid
[15:45] {Threei}  will get taken out now
[15:45] {nemo} this is nasty action
[15:45] {Threei}  die
[15:45] {Threei}  good boy
[15:45] {Threei}  1:1
[15:45] {nemo} yeha nyse got out of the way when the indexes let go
[15:46] {nemo} .04 S1 support
[15:47] {Threei}  beautiful trade to end the day with
[15:47] {nemo} take some here
[15:47] {Threei}  1:2 baby
[15:48] {Threei}  1:3, over and out
[15:48] {nemo} cat should be nice short tomorrow down to 106
[15:49] {Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
[15:49] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:50] {rambler} cya Vad...TKS
[15:51] {Beau} nemo seem to be several points used to calculate pivot.what do you use?
[15:51] {nemo} High Low Close
[15:51] {nemo} I use the basic pivots and FSC
[15:51] {nemo} there are different types, but those work fine
[15:52] {Beau} 3 from yesterday
[15:52] {nemo} their probablility levels for price movement
[15:52] {nemo} today's High low and Close will be the levels for tomorrow
[15:52] {nemo} there is a Pivot and 3 levels of Support and 3 of Resistance
[15:53] {nemo} Plenty of info out there in the either
[15:53] {nemo} ether
[15:53] {Beau} yep. thanks
[15:53] {nemo} the stuff I post for Vad is multi-time frame
[15:54] {nemo} weekly, monthly, etc pivots
[15:54] {nemo} multiple levels coinciding provide stronger support or resistance.
[15:55] {Beau} I'll play with it.  slow learner but you all help a bunch
[15:56] {nemo} once you learn the concepts, it's all screen time
[15:57] {nemo} we're at Weekly R1 on spy right now
[15:57] {Beau} looks like I need another monitor or maybe 2 more
[15:58] {nemo} how many you have?
[15:58] {Beau} just 1 right now