Friday, March 16, 2012

March 16 2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now:  

Very nice day, especially considering quadruple witching. Closed the day early to leave for  an weekend getaway up island.

Session Time: Fri Mar 16 00:00:00 2012
[09:00] {nemo}
[09:02] {Threei}  sigh
[09:04] {Threei}  this all makes very little sense to me
[09:14] {Beau} good morning
[09:14] {nemo} locker room talk
[09:14] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:14] {Les} deciding whether I wanna wake up...
[09:14] {nemo}'s after lunch where you are
[09:15] {nemo} well, this will likely be a rather boring day
[09:16] {Les} Aikido wipes me out. Friday arvo and I'm thinking of the bottle opener...
[09:17] {Les} big gardening weekend coming up. awesome weather outside
[09:20] {dino} gm
[09:20] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:22] {nemo}
[09:22] {nemo} oldie but goodie
[09:23] {nemo} bonds are cracking, tbt might be a good play today
[09:23] {MigC}  good morning
[09:23] {Les} I see AAPL upgrades this morn
[09:23] {Threei}  migc :)
[09:23] {rambler} gm..
[09:24] {Threei}  rambler :)
[09:25] {Threei}  so far no clear opening play
[09:25] {Threei}  let's wait couple min
[09:25] {nemo} big surprise today, huh?
[09:26] {nemo} yep, tlt keeps dropping
[09:27] {nemo} mmhhh, iwm moving a bit
[09:28] {dino} dji up 7 in row
[09:28] {thomcbell} ok in Vad - dont know what happened
[09:28] {nemo} wonder if they'll take sp down a bit over next few days before they rip it to 144
[09:28] {dino} my guess yes
[09:29] {Les} fcx 2 way play?
[09:29] {thomcbell} i thought there was no such thing as a "they"
[09:29] {Les} .75/.60
[09:29] {nemo} there goes Les projecting his sexual orientation again
[09:29] {Threei}  I'd prefer to fade sharp spike on it, Les
[09:29] {Threei}  much like we did yesterday for the opening play
[09:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .75 break half lot
[09:31] {Threei}  stop under .65 if you got it
[09:31] {rambler} woulda been nice...
[09:32] {Threei}  yeah, fast sucker
[09:32] {Les} half pivot resistance .88
[09:32] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .45 break
[09:32] {Threei}  hakf lot
[09:33] {nemo} fcx on the daily looks good to 40.00
[09:33] {Threei}  if anyone got lucky on FCX, be out here
[09:33] {Threei}  LVS, half out
[09:33] {Les} half out lvs
[09:34] {Threei}  scalpers win
[09:34] {Les} strange
[09:34] {Threei}  nah, they often win on quad witching day
[09:35] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .90 break
[09:35] {Threei}  if stays under 39
[09:35] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:42] {Threei}  stop to .96
[09:43] {Les} cut me risk in half
[09:43] {Threei}  1:1
[09:43] {Threei}  half out
[09:43] {Threei}  stop to .01
[09:43] {Threei}  .91
[09:45] {Les} tza .80 drat
[09:48] {Threei}  stop to .86
[09:48] {Threei}  let's choke it
[09:48] {nemo} l tna .36
[09:48] {nemo} stop .24
[09:49] {nemo} this not looking good
[09:50] {nemo} getting flat
[09:50] {nemo} spy driving the boat
[09:50] {nemo} thinking spy get's to .18
[09:51] {Les} 3/15 min macd pointing down
[09:52] {nemo} we're close
[09:52] {Threei}  (US) Preview: Mar Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence Index due out at 09:55ET*** Consensus expectations: 76.0e v 75.3 Feb final
[09:52] {Les} try pivot support
[09:52] {nemo} IWM at multi-time frame, spy almost
[09:52] {nemo} I'm looking for both to line up
[09:53] {nemo} o.k in .32
[09:53] {Les} ok
[09:53] {nemo} 1/2 out .42
[09:55] {Les} fcx vwap is .80
[09:55] {nemo} oy frickin vay, stop to entry
[09:55] {Threei}  bad number
[09:55] {nemo} make it .29
[09:55] {nemo} out
[09:55] {Threei}  74.3 vs 76E
[09:55] {nemo} that's not bad
[09:55] {nemo} just gonna' shake the tree I think
[09:55] {Threei}  should be enough to ve us our target on FCX
[09:56] {Threei}  and more
[09:56] {Les} all out .71 ty vad
[09:56] {Threei}  1/4 more out
[09:56] {Threei}  stop to .81
[09:56] {nemo} spy should bottom between here and the whole
[09:56] {Les} 3 min MACD getting steeper. IWM to .75?
[09:56] {Threei}  to .76
[09:56] {dino} 07 red
[09:57] {Threei}  1:3
[09:57] {Threei}  out in full
[09:57] {dino} gj
[09:57] {Threei}  ty
[09:57] {Les} scalpers usually win?
[09:57] {nemo} quad witching
[09:57] {Threei}  well, you'll have to agree, it was not your usual smooth fast trade... struggled for quite a while
[09:58] {Threei}  had troubles reaching 1:2 without help of bad number
[09:59] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .20 break
[09:59] {Threei}  half lot
[09:59] {nemo} yeah, that's a stop
[09:59] {Threei}  stop .05
[09:59] {dino} rail sm l .00
[09:59] {nemo} safer to play the double bottom here with pivot less than .10 away
[09:59] {Threei}  look to take scalp above .30
[10:00] {Threei}  stop to .09
[10:00] {Threei}  keeping it tight
[10:00] {Threei}  stop to .14
[10:01] {nemo} making you work for it today ;)
[10:01] {Threei}  out
[10:01] {Les} it works ty sir
[10:01] {Threei}  .33
[10:01] {rambler} out...tks V..
[10:01] {Threei}  welcome guys
[10:01] {Threei}  too soon
[10:01] {Threei}  but whatever
[10:02] {rambler} a bird in the hand...
[10:02] {Threei}  things are a bit too muddy today
[10:02] {nemo} yeah , should get to vwap
[10:02] {dino} rkt sm l .00
[10:03] {Threei}  the very speed with which we are switching from short to long and back tell you how listless market is so far
[10:04] {Les} but firmly in green, with good risk management. Not tempted for a lot more today
[10:04] {Threei}  we already changed three times... normally it takes us longer to change the bias than this
[10:04] {Les} that bottle looking better by the minute
[10:09] {dino} ges sm l .55
[10:10] {nemo} market in a downtrend so far
[10:14] {dino} stop rkt -.32
[10:16] {dino} ferts hot today, mos, pot
[10:16] {nemo} mmmhhhh...GS short?
[10:17] {Les} bullish divergences
[10:17] {Les} ok how about TNA here?
[10:18] {Threei}  .50 break looks right on GS but need a closer consolidation
[10:18] {Les} .90 pivot support
[10:18] {nemo} reasonable bet
[10:18] {nemo} all the ducks aren't lined up yet
[10:18] {Les} shit not stopping
[10:18] {nemo} spy is running the boat today
[10:18] {nemo} watch that for a turn
[10:18] {Threei}  Les... lady in the house
[10:18] {Les} SPY potential for bounce here
[10:19] {Les} really? scuse me
[10:19] {dino} rkt sm l .49
[10:19] {nemo} thus my comment about locker room talk early you wombat
[10:19] {Les} huh?
[10:19] {Les} oh right
[10:19] {Les} call me flash
[10:20] {cipher} tna l .75
[10:20] {nemo}'re giving New Zealanders a good name
[10:20] {Les} good one cipher
[10:20] {nemo} perfect cipher, but partial it
[10:21] {Les} decision time for spy here
[10:21] {nemo} I'm still not liking how spy is lining up optimally
[10:21] {Les} agreed
[10:21] {nemo} notice how spy did not break it's downward trend line
[10:21] {dino} out rkt .79, +.30
[10:22] {Les} 15 min macd getting steep trajectory
[10:22] {dino} rail sm l .35
[10:22] {Les} you sure IWM ain't in charge nemo?
[10:23] {nemo} at the moment it's not
[10:23] {dino} wsm sm l .73
[10:23] {Les} nice grab on TNA anyway
[10:23] {cipher} out 1/2 tna .05 +.30
[10:23] {nemo} look how spy is walking it's trendline, iwm is not
[10:24] {Les} can you pass me updated iwm/spy chart please
[10:24] {cipher} out rest .19 +.44
[10:24] {Threei}  wtg
[10:25] {rambler} beauty cipher...
[10:25] {cipher} thx
[10:25] {Threei}  GS worked but I never got clean setup
[10:25] {dino} gj cipher
[10:25] {nemo}
[10:28] {nemo} mmmh, see CAT short? then play bounce down at .77?
[10:28] {dino} rkt sm l .49
[10:28] {Threei}  not sure
[10:29] {Threei}  kind of jellyfishy
[10:29] {Les} That's a classic
[10:29] {Les} jellyfishy
[10:30] {dino} out rail .66, +.31
[10:31] {Threei}  nice one
[10:32] {dino} rkt tighten to .39, thing should've moved by now
[10:32] {dino} make it .45
[10:36] {_scottie} out GES +07, thanks dino
[10:37] {cipher} +.24 rkt thx dino
[10:43] {dino} gj
[10:46] {dino} out rkt .73, +.24
[10:56] {Les} CAT short setup here
[10:56] {nemo} at yesterday close and trend line,  good question
[10:56] {nemo} bi-play maybe
[10:56] {nemo} vwap at .79
[10:57] {Les} s .45 stop above .55 v sm
[10:57] {nemo} things usually get dicy around now on Quad witching
[10:57] {nemo} dicey
[10:58] {Les} no go
[10:58] {Les} multi time frame setup looks good
[10:58] {Les} just break that opening price support
[10:58] {nemo} to me it looked long, but I'm not sure how much there is in it given the overhead
[10:59] {nemo}
[11:00] {nemo} see what I mean WP
[11:00] {nemo} ?
[11:01] {Les} I see the trend support
[11:01] {thomcbell} lvs looks like a short here Vad
[11:02] {Les} ok added histogram to my 1 min. MACD. changes the story.
[11:02] {thomcbell} short setup lvs 56.99 break 
[11:02] {thomcbell} if holds 57.10
[11:02] {dino} out wsm .93, +.20
[11:03] {nemo} thom, looksl like setting up double bottom here
[11:05] {nemo} l .01 lvs
[11:05] {nemo} stop under .95
[11:13] {thomcbell} stopping lvs here
[11:13] {nemo} I partialed at .06
[11:14] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .40 half lot
[11:15] {nemo} out lvs
[11:15] {Threei}  if stays under .50
[11:16] {nemo} frickin LVS
[11:16] {nemo} tighten my stop again, oy vay
[11:19] {Threei}  1:1
[11:22] {Threei}  1:2, out
[11:22] {Les} ty sire
[11:22] {Les} sir
[11:23] {Threei}  sure thing
[11:23] {Threei}  easy does it today
[11:23] {Threei}  not pushing, staying nimble, taking surest setups
[11:23] {Les} bottle and house cleaning awaits before boss gets home. C u's monday
[11:23] {Threei}  have a good weekend Les
[11:23] {Les} u 2
[11:24] {Threei}  even 1:3
[11:24] {Threei}  without me
[11:27] {cipher} missed the short on cat but scalped it on the way up
[11:27] {cipher} thx for idea
[11:29] {Threei}  :)
[11:32] {nemo} oh damn, not noon yet
[11:32] {dino} rkt sm l .40
[11:37] {nemo} l fslr .91
[11:38] {nemo} just under vwap
[11:38] {nemo} 1/2 out .the whole
[11:39] {nemo} stop to b/e
[11:39] {nemo} almost lunch
[11:40] {_scottie} dino "rkt sm l .40" what is "sm"
[11:40] {nemo} sm=small
[11:40] {_scottie} thanks
[11:40] {nemo} but if you're Vad, it means somthing else
[11:40] {Threei}  hmmm
[11:40] {Threei}  I wanted to ask why but then thought what do I care...
[11:43] {_scottie} Gotta go for the weekend. will be back monday
[11:43] {_scottie} Thanks to all
[11:44] {Threei}  have a good one scottie
[11:45] {nemo} gonna' have to break him of those pleasantries
[11:45] {nemo} I'm out flsr
[11:45] {nemo} fslr
[11:45] {nemo} shouldn't have started drinking so early
[11:46] {cipher} fslr barely covered my comm but thx anyways nemo
[11:46] {nemo} sorry cipher...I didn't expect alot on Quad witching at lunchtime
[11:47] {nemo} I was playing the bounce near vwap, but it basically stopped at it's trend line and the 2 minute 20 sma
[11:47] {nemo} btw cipher...I have a habit of tightening my stops at the wrong time, so....
[11:47] {cipher} understood... was hoping to make some lunch money on it unfortunately barely enough for a happy meal :-)
[11:48] {nemo} es tut mir leid
[11:48] {nemo} mein europaische Freund
[11:49] {cipher} kein Problem mein Freund
[11:50] {vijay} FL short break .76 ? Any comments Vad?
[11:50] {nemo} Ct lawmakers mulling a digital download tax...
[11:51] {Threei}  chart itself is right vijay, just narrow and slow... don't count on much
[11:51] {nemo} wow, 25 states already do it...
[11:51] {nemo} ...back to the torrents
[11:51] {vijay} thanks Sir
[11:54] {nemo} see what i mean cipher
[11:55] {cipher} yeah freaking rinse
[11:55] {nemo} actually, had I just held my stop under .95
[11:56] {nemo} but today is quite unpredictable and then there's lunch
[11:56] {rambler} Vad, have you looked at the Market Delta site...?
[11:57] {rambler} make any sense to you...or usefull in any way..? 
[11:57] {nemo} it's another way to look at support and resistance rambler
[11:58] {nemo} it
[11:58] {Threei}  never saw it
[11:58] {nemo} it's cool
[11:58] {nemo} it puts the bid and ask data right on the chart vad
[11:58] {rambler} giving me a frickin' 
[11:58] {nemo} on transacted volume
[11:58] {nemo} it's better for trading futures
[12:00] {rambler} looks like it could be good info.....take some work I think...
[12:01] {nemo} like anything else, get used to it
[12:01] {nemo} if you use volume and volume at price on FSC that's basically the same thing
[12:02] {rambler} what is FSC...?
[12:02] {nemo}
[12:02] {rambler} o.k I see
[12:03] {nemo} the market delta stuff is more accurate, but for $300/mo? likely FSC is fine for equities.  For futures, might be worth it
[12:04] {rambler} helping me to understand the auction market better for sure, if nothing else...
[12:05] {Threei}  I don't believe it's worth 300/month
[12:05] {rambler} also how it shows you the vol at the bid and ask for each price level...
[12:06] {Threei}  isn't it what you see on Level 2?
[12:06] {Threei}  for 1/30 of a price
[12:06] {rambler} instructive anyway...
[12:06] {nemo} yeah, but if you use vol at price, Vad takes the word out of my LII you'll be fine
[12:07] {rambler} yup, but lets you look back at it....
[12:07] {nemo} vol at price does too
[12:07] {rambler} whether it helps you make money is the question...
[12:07] {nemo} always\
[12:07] {rambler} lol
[12:08] {Threei}  keep it simple
[12:08] {rambler} always looking around at different ideas....
[12:08] {Threei}  there are 1000 ways to overcomplicate trading
[12:08] {rambler} that's how I found you Vad....
[12:08] {Threei}  if you really wasnt to do it, you can do it much cheaper :)
[12:09] {rambler} looking for Level 2 info
[12:09] {rambler} hows that..
[12:09] {nemo} Frankly Rambler, we're always looking for the perfect indicator...what's inside the head is the biggest problem
[12:10] {rambler} I  agree 110 % on that....
[12:12] {Threei}  looking at 111 Trades course... ask yourself: have you seen anything simpler that that in the trading education arena?
[12:12] {rambler} point taken.....agree
[12:13] {nemo}
[12:13] {rambler} still good to kick tires ect,  always seem to learn something..
[12:15] {nemo} this is one strong market
[12:16] {rambler} lol....quick, somebody send the fruit fly info to David Suzuki....
[12:16] {rambler} Canadas Al Gore, with a PHD in fruit fly behavior 
[12:17] {nemo} I'm going to talk to bunny
[12:33] {Threei}  so, if we paint a grass and watch paint drying up while grass growing...
[12:34] {nemo} smoke it instead
[12:34] {andj} Hey Vad...I've got to ask you a question...
[12:34] {andj} Not about smoking things
[12:34] {Threei}  shoot
[12:35] {andj} share sizes  
[12:35] {nemo} I would, but he's not in range
[12:35] {Threei}  lol
[12:35] {andj} nice nemo
[12:35] {nemo} don't insult me like that andj
[12:35] {andj} I was just about to ask you where you live nemo
[12:36] {nemo} I hate visitors
[12:36] {andj} obviously too far to shoot vad
[12:36] {andj} it wasn't an offer...just curious
[12:36] {nemo} curiosity killed the cat
[12:36] {Threei}  so, the question?...
[12:36] {andj} you are curiosity then
[12:36] {andj} sorry
[12:37] {andj} how do you determine share sizes for each trade?
[12:37] {nemo} you take the entry point-stop
[12:37] {Threei}  it's decribed in details in MPP and in a blog article devoted to basics of a stop placenment
[12:37] {nemo} then decide how much you're willing to risk
[12:38] {Threei}  each tgrade should not put more than 1-2% of your trading capital at risk
[12:38] {Threei}  when you determine the size of a stop from chart,
[12:39] {Threei}  you know how many shares to play so the size of a loss doesn't exceed that amount
[12:39] {andj} are you referring to my total margin available? 
[12:39] {Threei}  no, your trading capital
[12:40] {andj} They way mine is set up with Nevis is that I have a set limit that I can use at one time
[12:41] {andj} then I have my own original capital that I used to fund the account...
[12:41] {Threei}  that's what you use to determine your max loss
[12:41] {andj} so trade size is connected to max loss
[12:42] {nemo} sheesh...vixx getting to summer numbers
[12:42] {andj} am I correct?
[12:42] {nemo} intimately 
[12:43] {andj} what do you mean nemo?
[12:43] {Threei}  yes
[12:43] {nemo} they're tied at the hip
[12:44] {andj} size and max loss are very much connected nemo?
[12:44] {nemo} yep
[12:44] {andj} So I should only take larger risks if I have more money?
[12:45] {nemo} if you can lose $100 bucks a trade and your stop is $.20 that means you can trade 500 shares
[12:45] {andj} Do you take a smaller risk after a loss?
[12:45] {nemo} $100 X .20=500
[12:45] {nemo} you shouldn't
[12:46] {andj} you take the same risk all the time then?
[12:47] {andj} nemo?
[12:47] {nemo} there is art in it, but as a rule use the same equation
[12:47] {nemo} if you have a .10 stop, you could take 1000 shares
[12:48] {dino} $ wise should be roughly the same. share size for me varies
[12:48] {andj} I guess I'm asking about the art
[12:48] {nemo} then, though you get in to time of day and liquidity
[12:48] {nemo} well, "art" is an acquired skill...and there is, unfortunately, no jumping through time on that one
[12:48] {andj} that makes sense dino
[12:50] {andj} because the factors with each trade also are a part of the decision but the money management keeps you in the game...right?
[12:50] {nemo} if your trading strategy is sound
[12:50] {dino} yes, if you do not manage your losses, they will do it for you
[12:51] {nemo} if your trading strategy has no edge, then the probabilities are not on your side and you will get to zero
[12:52] {andj} you have to win either way...
[12:52] {nemo} you need an "edge" and money management
[12:53] {andj} Vad is the 2% thing so that each trade is small enough that you could potentially do many stupid things and still stay in the game?
[12:53] {nemo} bingo
[12:54] {andj} I will try to avoid being stupid then...
[12:54] {andj} thanks guys
[12:55] {dino} np
[12:55] {nemo} I'm exhausted
[12:55] {andj} from what?
[12:55] {nemo} explaining
[12:55] {andj} I knew that...
[12:56] {andj} that's why i try not to ask you too many questions
[12:56] {nemo} ask questions, np...I'm just a curmudgeon
[12:56] {andj} But I know you know the answers:)
[12:56] {andj} I'm going to have to look that word up
[12:56] {nemo} that's enough dude, I'm in bare feet, I need to put my boots on
[12:56] {thomcbell} lol
[12:57] {andj} cur·mudg·eon/kərˈməjən/   Noun: A bad-tempered or surly person. 
[12:57] {nemo} picture is right under the definition
[12:57] {andj} and you're holding a bunny
[12:57] {andj} that's an oximoron
[12:58] {andj} sweet but evil..right
[12:58] {nemo} oxymoron
[12:59] {nemo} speaking of...tortilla chip time
[12:59] {andj} I said I would TRY not to be stupid
[12:59] {nemo} spy/iwm bounce coming
[13:00] {nemo} I'm hearing lines from Forrest Gump go through my head
[13:26] {Threei}  OK guys, with your permission I'll keave for my weekend getaway
[13:26] {Threei}  we did good for such a day
[13:27] {Threei}  anfd had a fairly nice week overall
[13:27] {Threei}  see you all on Monday
[13:27] {andj} Thanks for everything Vad...Enjoy yourself and get some rest...
[13:28] {rambler} cya monday Vad...
[13:28] {cipher} see ya vad