Thursday, April 5, 2012

Apr 05 2012

Very boring but profitable day. Or profitable but very boring. Take your pick.

Session Time: Thu Apr 05 00:00:01 2012
[08:41] {Threei}  *(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 357K V 355KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.338M V 3.350ME- Prior Initial Claims revised higher from 359K to 363K - Prior Continuing Claims higher from 3.340M to 3.354M
[08:57] {dino} gm
[08:58] {Les} afternoon all
[08:58] {Threei}  dino, les :)
[08:59] {andj} gm all
[08:59] {Threei}  andj :)
[09:03] {_pepiolas} gm
[09:03] {Threei}  pepiolas :)
[09:05] {Threei}  in its jesuit logic, market spiked up in response to bad numbers
[09:06] {Threei}  reminds me famous Lenin�s remark, �the worse the better�
[09:06] {Threei}  in this case it�s a logic of �the worse economix conditions are, the more probable more QE is�
[09:08] {dptl} good morning all
[09:08] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:10] {nemo} 1 man's death a tragedy, 20 million, merely a statistic -Stalin
[09:12] {Beau} good morning you all
[09:12] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:13] {nemo}
[09:13] {Threei}  Soanish bonds are at it again
[09:13] {Threei}  Spanish
[09:15] {Threei}  Spanish 10-year gov't yield tested the 5.75% which was back above pre-3-year lending LTRO levels
[09:16] {Threei}  so, with renewed worry about Europe, and the last trading day of a negative week before the long weekend... selling throughout the day would be the most logical thing to expect, no?
[09:19] {dino} no idea
[09:19] {ese} morning
[09:20] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:21] {ese} morning vad........
[09:22] {Les} sounds too logical
[09:22] {ese} thats gotta be one of the funniest articles I've ever seen nemo
[09:23] {rambler} gm..
[09:23] {ese} unsafe working conditions
[09:23] {Threei}  rambler :)
[09:23] {ese} rambler
[09:24] {ese} speaking of unsafe working conditions......vad I need to file a complaint with you staring at these screens daily.......?
[09:24] {ese} this is dangerous
[09:24] {ese} what are ya gonna do about it eh?
[09:24] {Threei}  easy helped - put a curtain over monitors
[09:25] {Threei}  thick black fabric
[09:25] {ese} lol
[09:25] {Threei}  I did
[09:25] {Threei}  it helps
[09:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .05 break hl
[09:30] {Threei}  if stays above .95
[09:32] {Threei}  1:1
[09:33] {_pepiolas} nice
[09:33] {_pepiolas} took 4:1 but
[09:33] {_pepiolas} still
[09:33] {Threei}  4:1? what�s that? :)
[09:34] {_pepiolas} tool 20 cents risking 5 cents
[09:34] {nemo} wow bbby
[09:34] {Threei}  kept .99 stop?
[09:34] {_pepiolas} sorry u are right 2:1 or 1:2
[09:35] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .65 break
[09:35] {thomcbell} looking for long entry qcom
[09:35] {nemo} .55 pivot
[09:35] {thomcbell} long setup 67.39 break if holding 67.29
[09:36] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:36] {thomcbell} invalidated qcom
[09:36] {thomcbell} in angry fashion
[09:37] {Threei}  lol
[09:38] {ese} L CLNT .00
[09:38] {Les} TZA entry on market bounce?
[09:38] {ese} whoa......out 1/2 .23
[09:38] {Threei}  at some point yes, that�s the idea
[09:39] {Threei}  not its time yet
[09:39] {ese} stop to .15
[09:40] {ese} out in full .58
[09:40] {rambler} gl ese
[09:40] {rambler} gj
[09:40] {ese} +.23, +.58
[09:41] {ese} that thing was bouncing around
[09:41] {ese} 1/2 lot 1/2 lot...nothing big
[09:41] {Threei}  nice
[09:42] {Threei}  good risk control too, it�s a pulp stock
[09:42] {ese} boy was it ever a pulp stock...a bit of bs luck there
[09:42] {dino} wpz l .10 stop .98
[09:44] {dino} clnt crazy yesterday too
[09:45] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .65 break if holding below .70
[09:46] {Threei}  very tight stop
[09:46] {Threei}  no go
[09:46] {nemo} indexes running no shorts
[09:47] {Threei}  volume lowr and lower with each uptick
[09:47] {Threei}  I don�t view it as sustainable rally
[09:47] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .80 break
[09:47] {Les} so tza setup
[09:48] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .35 break
[09:48] {Threei}  stop under .30
[09:49] {Threei}  target closer to .50
[09:50] {Threei}  LVS invalidated
[09:50] {nemo} nephew out the door
[09:50] {Les} that good or bad?
[09:50] {Threei}  two partials, one between .40 and .45, another between .45 and .50
[09:51] {nemo} good, kinda' on his way to surgery
[09:51] {Threei}  SPY kangaroo tail
[09:52] {Threei}  need it to stay under .80 and proceed to .60 for TZA to work
[09:53] {Threei}  while we are seeking the top, picking the safest trades with togthest stops
[09:53] {thomcbell} lvs is the best - look at that volatility this am
[09:53] {thomcbell} unreal
[09:53] {Threei}  58 break short is tempting
[09:54] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  58 break hl
[09:54] {Threei}  if stays under .10
[09:54] {thomcbell} target 1:3 vad?
[09:54] {Threei}  about that, yes
[09:55] {Threei}  first partial TZA, .44
[09:55] {Threei}  .42, sorry
[09:55] {Threei}  stop to .33
[09:56] {Threei}  roll over already SPY
[09:56] {dino} wants up
[09:57] {Threei}  aren�t we all.. but this darn gravity
[09:57] {Threei}  sir Newton is biggest party pooper in history
[09:58] {cipher} SLW cooperating
[09:59] {dino} i'm wrong, going down
[09:59] {Threei}  here comes next push TZA
[09:59] {Threei}  gravity, I am telling you...
[09:59] {Threei}  now, LVS needs to remember about it too
[09:59] {Les} doesn't seem to be affecting TZA :)
[10:00] {Threei}  *(HU) HUNGARY MAR YTD BUDGET BALANCE (HUF): -517.5BB V -286.6B PRIOR
[10:00] {Threei}  not that we care much, but I liked the numbers
[10:01] {Threei}  ok, violence time
06[10:01] * Threei hits LVS over the head with 2x4
[10:01] {nemo} big offerr lvs
[10:01] {nemo} flashed
[10:02] {nemo} gone
[10:03] {Threei}  (KR) North Korea Govt notes that any interception of its planned satellite launch would be considered an 'act of war'
[10:03] {nemo} careful here lvs, could be bull flag above 58
[10:04] {Threei}  second part TZA lacked couple cents
[10:04] {Threei}  LVS, violence works... as always
[10:04] {Threei}  1:1
[10:06] {Threei}  Nicolas Sarkozy says he will seek to freeze France's contribution to the EU budget if he is re-elected president
[10:07] {Les} frikin snake tongued prick
[10:07] {Threei}  lol
[10:07] {nemo} shorts will be getting out today with the long weekend
[10:07] {dino} and it was up
[10:08] {Threei}  lol
[10:09] {thomcbell} qcom - bull  move favorite flaccid today
[10:11] {Les} tza
[10:11] {Les} crap. .30 entry on bullish divergences looked good
[10:12] {Threei}  whoa
[10:13] {Threei}  interesting volatility today...
[10:13] {Les} I exited TZA flat cause 3 min wasn't lined up. Now 1/3/15 MACD lined up
[10:13] {Les} but .30 was it
[10:15] {Threei}  watch X for short into bounce
[10:15] {Threei}  most likely above .25
[10:15] {Threei}  if stays under .35
[10:17] {Threei}  no bounce
[10:20] {Les} CAT reversal setup?
[10:21] {Threei}  unclear
[10:22] {dino} everything feels thin
[10:22] {nemo} ya think?
[10:26] {cipher} meli l .10
[10:28] {cipher} out .43 +.33
[10:28] {dino} gj
[10:29] {cipher} thx yesterdays support held
[10:29] {Les} RIG vad. db with a 2nd bottom at .95 here?
[10:30] {Threei}  hmmm
[10:30] {Threei}  doesn�t5 look right
[10:31] {Threei}  mama... look at UNG
[10:31] {Threei}  natural gas players won�t win on this one until they all extinct
[10:31] {Les} potential db in daily?
[10:31] {Threei}  on UNG?
[10:31] {Threei}  nah
[10:34] {Threei} Short Setup: X  29 break
[10:34] {Threei}  if stays under .10
[10:35] {nemo} cog short, thinking
[10:35] {nemo} sort .24
[10:36] {nemo} stop above the high
[10:36] {thomcbell} long setup tgt - 58.11 break if holding 58
[10:37] {thomcbell} could even do 58.01 but using the big number as stop
[10:39] {nemo} out cog
[10:39] {nemo} everything gonna run
[10:39] {Threei}  no go X
[10:40] {rambler} stop X   -,11
[10:40] {thomcbell} tgt 1:1
[10:40] {rambler} durn
[10:40] {rambler} that was quick...
[10:41] {Les} bullish divergence on x
[10:41] {thomcbell} sold 1/3 58.24
[10:41] {Les} didn't take it
[10:41] {Threei}  that sudden spike in SPY is the only reason for X spike
[10:42] {thomcbell} using a stop on 1/3 of tgt at 58.19
[10:42] {thomcbell} break even on last 1/3
[10:42] {Les}
[10:43] {Threei}  nice one tbell
[10:43] {nemo} geez, where'd you get that Les?
[10:43] {Les} ?
[10:44] {Les} show me your chart for X
[10:44] {thomcbell} selling another 1/3 on tgt
[10:45] {thomcbell} 58.27 - keeping 58.20 stop on balance
[10:45] {nemo} when I imported that link it brought in my panel format
[10:46] {Les} skype me a screenshot
[10:46] {Les} or a link
[10:47] {nemo} yep
[10:48] {thomcbell} tgt:1:2
[10:48] {thomcbell} out tgt 58.35
[10:52] {ese} am outta here cya tomorrow
[10:52] {Threei}  no trading tomorrow ese
[10:52] {Threei}  Monday
[10:52] {_pepiolas} is it better to let price break a level for example 29 and let it go to 28.99 and then put a limit order at 29 or just put a stop sell order at 28.99?
[10:53] {Les} pyjama time. c u's for close
[10:53] {Threei}  I prefer limit sell order couple cents beyond the trigger
[10:54] {Threei}  in this case .98 limit sell, clicked as soon as 29 is broken
[10:54] {_pepiolas} so like 29.01 or sth...i like it too, better risk/reward and no slippage....but wanted to make sure
[10:54] {Threei}  we are talking short?
[10:54] {_pepiolas} yes,
[10:54] {Threei}  then it�s 28.98, not 29.01
[10:55] {Threei}  if you try offering at 29 after the break, there is a good chance of not getting a fill at all
[10:55] {Threei}  if stock just drops and never looks back
[10:56] {Threei}  if there is enough shares at .99, your .98 order will sweep them
[10:56] {cipher} is there still an uptick rule in effect?
[10:57] {_pepiolas} k, so 1:1 would be cover .88
[10:57] {Threei}  it was canceled on pilot bunch of stocks at first,
[10:57] {Threei}  then broadened to wider circle,
[10:57] {Threei}  then I lost the track altogether, doesn�t seem to influence anything anymore
[10:57] {nemo} they'll hold spy above 140 today, lowest would be 139.85
[10:57] {cipher} ok
[10:58] {Threei}  don�t remember a rejection of a short order for that reason in a good while
[10:58] {nemo} hard drive makers getting killed
[11:00] {_pepiolas} why two cents and not one , any reason for that....excusi i am a euro futures trader so slippage is somewhat new to me
[11:01] {Threei}  there is a balance between chasing too much on one side and missing a trade on another
[11:01] {Threei}  to me, such balance is a couple cents on normal thick stocks and 3-4 cents on thin fluid ones where we play lesser shares
[11:02] {nemo} dino stx for you
[11:02] {Threei}  the nature of limit orders beyond inside msrket is such that they sweep shares at better prices first,
[11:02] {dino} hmmm
[11:02] {Threei}  and only if there is not enough shares, then they go to the next level
[11:02] {nemo} thought you'd look for a bounce play here
[11:03] {Threei}  So, shorting at .98, you may get all your shares at .99 in best case scenario
[11:03] {_pepiolas} thanks
[11:03] {Threei}  mix of .99 and .98 in average
[11:03] {Threei}  and all at .98 in worst
[11:04] {_pepiolas} grazie
[11:05] {dino} stx sm l .14
[11:05] {nemo} thought so
[11:05] {nemo} not as dumb as I look
[11:09] {dino} ;)
[11:10] {_pepiolas} one thing still not clear: do you put a limit order sell at .98 or astop sell at .98
[11:11] {dino} mine is a short stop
[11:14] {nemo} didn't know you play baseball dino
[11:15] {dino} roflol. but yeah i was a short stop on high school team
[11:15] {dino} now just coach kids
[11:16] {Threei}  to me, it�s a simple sell limit order
[11:17] {Threei}  stop sell limit would require entering two prices
[11:17] {Threei}  trigger and limit
[11:17] {Threei}  usual limit is just one click
[11:17] {Threei}  I am lazy
[11:17] {Threei}  I pick the simplest way
[11:18] {Threei}  and frikin X rinsed our short
[11:18] {dino} pepi, depends on your platform i guess, i use buy stops and short stops for entries w/triggers
[11:21] {_pepiolas} no Threei, i mean a stop sell only, lol. dont want to be too persistent but a sell stop is different from a stop limit . sorry, lol, just want to make the most out of
[11:22] {_pepiolas} k, got it. thanks
[11:23] {dino} out wpz .29, +.19
[11:26] {Threei}  (US) PIMCO's Gross: sees Portugal and Spain as potential problems, debt crisises cannot be solved through austerity and additional debt - twitter
[11:27] {Threei}  On 4/3 Gross tweeted that Portugal was likely headed for haircut, and a 'voluntary exchange' by the private market was inevitable
[11:28] {Threei}  so, if he is right, Geece scenario will repeat in Portugal
[11:28] {Threei}  which in turn will make Spain more likely to follow
[11:29] {Threei}  and if Spain goes, EU is done like roast after 6 hours in oven
[11:29] {Threei}  at least that how it looks from this side of the pond... pepiolas may have different perspective
[11:30] {Threei}  share if so... always glad to have a view from the ground
[11:30] {Threei}  migc too
[11:32] {Threei}  X is the main regret of the day
[11:33] {dino} imo, they will open the printing presses. politicians fear deflation
[11:37] {dino} out stx .55, +.41. thx for heads up nemo
[11:37] {nemo} had your name written all over it
[11:37] {nemo} gonna get a spy/iwm bounce by 139.85
[11:38] {_pepiolas} yep X was  f
[11:39] {nemo} all the traders should be heading out for drinks to watch the masters
[11:39] {nemo} tna .91 long
[11:40] {nemo} scalp
[11:40] {nemo} 1/2 at .00
[11:42] {cipher} took a scalp on tna thx nemo
[11:42] {Threei}  easy money
[11:42] {Threei}  love it
[11:42] {nemo} stop is .84
[11:44] {nemo} stop to .89
[11:50] {nemo} new entry would be if spy breaks this downtrend line
[11:50] {nemo} which would likely put tna entry at .01
[11:55] {nemo} cat watch for long here
[12:02] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .35 break
[12:07] {Beau} target 1:1 or more?
[12:09] {Threei}  I�d think 1:1, but let�s not get stopped out first :)
[12:09] {Threei}  grrr
[12:09] {Threei}  stopped
[12:10] {thomcbell} vad r u doing nay conferences?
[12:11] {thomcbell} any
[12:11] {thomcbell} i invalidated my own question
[12:11] {dino} lol
[12:12] {Threei}  conferences?
[12:13] {thomcbell} trading stuff - want to meet you guys
[12:13] {Threei}  you mean like one I did in whistler?
[12:13] {Threei}  oh
[12:13] {thomcbell} y - i couldnt swing that one
[12:13] {Threei}  there is one in planning in Toronto for Sept
[12:13] {thomcbell} nice ill make that one
[12:13] {Threei}  but I am not sure what stage its at
[12:14] {Threei}  not even sure it�s Toronto, last I heard it was toss between Toronto and Florida
[12:15] {Threei}  I�d prefer Hawaii personally
[12:15] {Threei}  loved doing this seminar thing on Bahamas
[12:15] {nemo} except for hiliday lunch, tna spy might be long here
[12:17] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .40 break
[12:17] {thomcbell} lets do that
[12:18] {Threei}  in my eyes, it has room to .55 - .60
[12:19] {nemo} iwm fwap at .72, spy pivot .85 with vwap at .80
[12:19] {dptl} .40?...
[12:19] {Threei}  grrr
[12:20] {Threei}  not TZA
[12:20] {Threei}  FAZ
[12:20] {Threei}  sigh
[12:20] {Threei}  haven�t even started drinking yet
[12:20] {Threei}  it�s there anywhere
[12:20] {Threei}  anyway
[12:20] {Threei}  .41 is still avaible
[12:20] {rambler} got it...
[12:21] {dptl} stop?
[12:21] {Threei}  two versions
[12:21] {Threei}  .34 and .29, depending on your objectives and size
[12:22] {Threei}  SPY looks ready to fall off a cliff, if losing .85
[12:23] {Threei}  question is, does it fall now or pulls X on us, stopping us out and then proceeding
[12:24] {nemo} take partial on tna here
[12:25] {nemo} .36 would be next target if it breaks .25
[12:27] {nemo} mos might be a db here s1 at .48
[12:30] {Threei}  die SPY
[12:37] {Threei}  ok... one more push and first partial can be taken
[12:39] {Threei}  here comes the bri... err FAZ
[12:39] {Threei}  half out .49
[12:39] {Threei}  stop to .39
[12:44] {rambler} I just put in an ordewr to sell another bit FAZ at 21.55 and it filled....
[12:45] {rambler} says it filled at .55 but got .47
[12:45] {nemo} that's weird
[12:45] {rambler} wierd...
[12:45] {nemo} you must have hit market
[12:45] {rambler} lol....
[12:46] {rambler} thats what I did....crap...
[12:46] {nemo} you get the Les award
[12:46] {rambler} I was playing with the
[12:55] {Threei}  anyone has feeling we may get cascading selloff into eod?
[13:21] {dptl} x .30 break?
[13:22] {Threei}  I am not delighted
[13:22] {Threei}  50/50
[13:23] {Threei}  may work, may fail with the same odds
[13:23] {dptl} ok
[13:29] {gen} have a good day
[13:29] {gen} gotta go
[13:29] {gen} :)
[13:29] {Threei}  take care gen
[13:43] {Threei}  bored to tears yet?
[13:43] {Threei}  X would have chewed you up and spit you out btw
[13:44] {dptl} ye
[13:50] {Threei}  hehe
[13:50] {Threei}  finally
[13:50] {Threei}  1/4 more out FAZ
[13:51] {Threei}  started feekling like long-term investment
[13:51] {rambler} Vad the
[13:51] {Threei}  only I spell it with w
[13:51] {Threei}  inwestor
[13:51] {rambler} as opposed to the Impaler...
[13:52] {Threei}  lol
[13:52] {Threei}  [12:55] {Threei} anyone has feeling we may get cascading selloff into eod?
[13:52] {Threei}  if you haven�t answered yes, I win
[13:55] {Threei}  stop to .49 for the last portion
[13:58] {Threei}  seriously... almost 2 hours since entry... how many times we hold them this long?
[14:13] {rambler} RT L .22
[14:13] {rambler} stop .14
[14:18] {Threei}  pbviously I am bored out of my mind, so look where I founf entertainment... quote from Alan Greenspan:
[14:18] {Threei}  try to tell whether he says economy will strengthen or slow down
[14:18] {dino} .
[14:18] {Threei}  "The members of the Board of Governors and the Reserve Bank presidents foresee an implicit strengthening of activity after the current rebalancing is over, although the central tendency of their individual forecasts for real GDP still shows a substantial slowdown, on balance, for the year as a whole."
[14:19] {Threei}  ain�t it a beauty of communication?
[14:33] {rambler} out RT flat..
[14:33] {nemo} I gotta run, talk to ya Monday
[14:34] {Threei}  take cre nemo
[14:42] {dino}  cya
[15:04] {Les} what are we in?
[15:05] {Threei}  nothing right now
[15:05] {Threei}  finished nice FAZ recently
[15:07] {andj} .
[15:08] {Threei}  trying to get a feel for the last trade
[15:12] {Threei}  ok, still feels to me like selling into end of day
[15:13] {Threei}  let�s try FAZ one more time
[15:13] {Threei}  desirably on pullback under .40
[15:14] {Threei}  target again .55 - .60, just like last time
[15:14] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .40 break
[15:14] {Threei}  if stays above .35
[15:15] {dptl} got to go....see ya monday
[15:15] {Threei}  take care dp
[15:16] {dino} cya dp
[15:16] {Threei}  not dure is ese saw the alert about no trading tomorrow... I�ll have a look if he drops by and asks in shock where everyone is
[15:18] {dino} wpz l .06
[15:23] {Threei}  roll over already SPY
[15:26] {Threei}  53% Say Obama is Governing Like a Partisan Democrat
[15:26] {Les} that means something?
[15:26] {Threei}  hmmm... the remaining 47% never wake up I guess
[15:27] {Les} well he ain't governing like a President, at least in this outsider's view
[15:29] {Threei}  as far as I am concerned, he is not governing at all - he runs neverending election campaign
[15:29] {Les} gift of the gab
[15:30] {dino} i agree les
[15:30] {dino} acts like a baby when facts are thrown at him
[15:30] {Les} GS nice looking short
[15:31] {Threei}  if GS drops, FAZ is just the right thing to be in
[15:31] {dino} can't take them down, then gut says up
[15:44] {Threei}  market says: whatever direction I elect, someone will be happy. So I�;ll just stay here wnd frustrate all of you
[15:47] {Threei}  ther most boring day in a good while
[15:47] {Threei}  whatever money we made today, feels like pulling teeth
[15:48] {Threei}  move yout butt already FAZ, will ya?
[15:50] {dino} amln spike
[15:50] {Threei}  with blazing speed of a cent per hour, we may get blisters on our skin
[15:50] {thomcbell} good weekend all
[15:51] {Threei}  Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc Bristol still said to be considering acquisition of the company - financial press- Reminder: on 3/28 reports indicated that AMLN had rejected the offer from Bristol valued at $22/shr
[15:51] {Threei}  that�s AMLN
[15:51] {Threei}  take care tbell, havbea great one
[15:52] {dino} cya tbell
[15:52] {dino} ty vad
[15:55] {Threei}  ok guys, scratching FAZ
[15:55] {Threei}  market skillfully remained in place, finding the way to rid both sides of profit
[15:56] {rambler} thanks all, have a great weekend....cya monday
[15:56] {Threei}  not the most fun but profitable week
[15:56] {Threei}  we will have more fun next one I believe
[15:56] {Threei}  have a great long weekend
[15:56] {Les} c u the week after next. taking a week off
[15:56] {Threei}  come back well rested Monday morning
[15:57] {andj} Have a happy Easter!
[15:57] {Threei}  trialers who run into short week, just add a day next week
[15:57] {dino} out wpz -.02
[15:58] {Threei}  take care everyone, see you Monday
[15:58] {dino} gn, ty, and take care all