Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Apr 10 2012

Quite a few movements in the market with no setups; happens when the market becomes nervous. It also makes for a little follow-through. Some trades worked very nicely but there were more stops than I'd like. Even though tightly controlled, they have about balanced
 winning trades. 

Session Time: Tue Apr 10 00:00:00 2012
[09:11] {ese} morning
[09:12] {Threei}  morning ese
[09:13] {dino} gm
[09:13] {MigC}  good morning
[09:13] {Threei}  dino, migc :)
[09:13] {ese} dino vad M
[09:15] {ese} almost tweeted you last night vad but couldn't do it.......no facebook no nothing for me.....this board is as public as i get sorry bout that
[09:15] {dptl} good morning
[09:15] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:16] {Threei}  nothing to be sorry about... if not for business necessity, I'd be right there with you
[09:16] {ese} dp
[09:16] {Threei}  and if Facebook I do more or less. my tweets ate one a week I think
[09:16] {Threei}  are
[09:23] {thomcbell} hi everyone 
[09:23] {Threei}  tbell :)
[09:23] {ese} TB
[09:24] {Beau} good morning you all
[09:24] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:25] {rambler} gm..
[09:25] {Threei}  rambler :)
[09:27] {Threei}  hope you guys found the market outlook summary useful
[09:29] {andj} MG...I liked it
[09:29] {andj} GM
[09:29] {Threei}  andj :)
[09:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .45 break hl
[09:32] {Threei}  stop under .35
[09:32] {Threei}  1:1
[09:33] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .60 break
[09:33] {Threei}  hl
[09:33] {Threei}  if stays above .50
[09:34] {nemo} theres your stop on lvs
[09:36] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .70 break
[09:37] {Threei}  1:1
[09:39] {Threei} Short Setup: X  .60 break
[09:41] {dino} wprt sm l .50
[09:44] {Threei} Short Setup: RIG  .30 break
[09:44] {Threei}  1:1
[09:44] {Threei}  1:2, out
[09:45] {dino} out wprt .80, +.30
[09:45] {Threei}  gj
[09:46] {dino} ty
[09:47] {Threei} Long Setup:  HD  .85 break
[09:48] {Threei}  if stays above .80
[09:53] {Threei} Long Setup:  HD  .80 break
[09:53] {Threei}  if stays above .75
[09:54] {Threei} Long Setup:  X  .60 break
[09:55] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:55] {Threei}  change to .55 break
[09:55] {Threei}  if holding .50
[09:56] {Threei}  target .75
[09:57] {Threei}  half out .65
[09:57] {Threei}  stop to .54
[09:57] {ese} good job vad
[09:57] {Threei}  ty
[09:58] {Threei}  HD is valid still
[09:58] {ese} ya just looking athat
[09:58] {nemo} numbers
[09:59] {Threei}  *(US) APR IBD/TIPP ECONOMIC OPTIMISM:49.3 V 48.5E
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) FEB WHOLESALE INVENTORIES: 0.9% V 0.5%E
[10:00] {ese} thats a hmmmmm
[10:01] {Threei}  IMF: Oil price to decline in 2012-13 period due to weak global economc outlook
[10:01] {Threei}  HD invalidated
[10:01] {ese} hd invalidated
[10:02] {ese} great minds
[10:02] {Threei}  (US) Feb JOLTs Job Openings: 3.498M v 3.459M prior
[10:03] {Threei}  hmmm
[10:03] {Threei}  where did this drop come from
[10:04] {ese} its a "whatever"......mrkt is tanking
[10:04] {dino} dxpe drop
[10:06] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .15 break
[10:06] {Threei}  stop under .05
[10:08] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .50 break hl
[10:08] {Threei}  if stays above .40
[10:09] {Threei}  invalid of course
[10:09] {Threei}  no go SLW
[10:10] {rambler} KORS tanking..
[10:11] {dino} dxpe sm l .89
[10:11] {dino} gappy
[10:15] {Threei}  something is seriously spooking the market
[10:16] {dino} stopped dxpe
[10:21] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .85 break hl
[10:22] {Threei}  .75 stop
[10:23] {Threei}  not yet
[10:24] {nemo} around here vad
[10:25] {Threei}  SPY looks too shaky for my taste...
[10:25] {nemo} it's at support
[10:25] {nemo} see
[10:26] {cipher} good read nemo
[10:26] {Threei}  not really
[10:26] {Threei}  .70 was just the same kind of support, and didn't hold
[10:26] {nemo} iwm bounced at monthly S1, and spy had subjective support at .59
[10:26] {Threei}  I don't see how to tell one from another
[10:27] {Threei}  this spike is just "out of nowhere" as a few drops before that
[10:27] {nemo} I have it at support for both IWM and SPY
[10:28] {nemo} spy bottom of gap from Mar 13
[10:30] {nemo} here's spy:  http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=703c4227-1a9d-4637-b168-fce988019e99
[10:31] {nemo} Here's monthly pivot view IWM: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=c16e66fc-a312-482a-bd5c-25481041b206
[10:33] {dino} panl sm l .75
[10:34] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .50 break
[10:34] {Threei}  hl
[10:34] {Threei}  if stays above .35
[10:36] {Beau} 35?
[10:36] {Threei}  102.35?
[10:38] {Beau} just first time I have seen you do a .15
[10:38] {nemo} did it earlier this morning youngin'
[10:38] {Threei}  hmmm
[10:38] {Beau} must have missed it. 
[10:39] {nemo} when you see HL=half lot, it's at least .15
[10:44] {Beau} not going to argue, but CAT at 9:08 was hl .10 as was TNA at 9:22.
[10:45] {nemo} there ya go
[10:45] {Beau} just trying to learn your pattern Vad. No offense meant
[10:45] {Threei}  just going with chart indications
[10:46] {Threei}  sometimes half lot is because of potential volaitlity, where slippage can add to a stop size
[10:46] {nemo} don't worry, your name isn't strider
[10:46] {Beau} understand. 
[10:49] {dino} panl stop -.31
[10:52] {Threei}  market feels like breakdown is coming
[10:52] {Threei} Short Setup: X  .35 break
[10:53] {Threei}  if stays under .45
[10:54] {Threei}  Titanic memorial cruise is delayed at sea due to high winds
[10:54] {Threei}  hmmm
[10:54] {Threei}  any reports of icebergs?...
[10:55] {Threei}  1:1 X
[10:55] {Threei}  if SPY loses .60, X can do a lot more
[10:56] {Threei}  here we go
[10:56] {Threei}  let the hell break loode
[10:56] {Threei}  1:2
[10:57] {Threei}  yesterday's low is .12
[10:57] {nemo} I think .25-.35, leaning toward .35
[10:57] {Threei}  for SPY?
[10:58] {Threei}  new low
[10:58] {Threei}  will try to cover around 1:3
[10:59] {Threei}  stop .26 for the last 1/4
[11:02] {Threei}  stop to .21
[11:07] {Threei}  out in full
[11:07] {Threei}  may have more in it but I feel I need good solid 1:3 win after all the volatility
[11:07] {Beau} very nice vad thx
[11:07] {Threei}  yw
[11:08] {Threei}  look at 1 min X from the trigger to now... very clean setup, great follow through
[11:09] {Threei}  White House says North Korea rocket launch would be 'clear and serious violation' of UN resolutions
[11:09] {Threei}  North Korea: duh
[11:13] {Threei}  waves of selling hit the market with no news
[11:13] {Threei}  while daily is still inconclusive, the character of this selling might be indicative of a serious market top
[11:17] {nemo} tna might be worth it here over the whole
[11:18] {Threei}  if so, it would be completely your read
[11:18] {Threei}  mine says another breakdown is more likely
[11:18] {nemo} I think spy is within .10 of it's bottom
[11:19] {Threei}  looks likely, but it can be bout 30 cents more downside for TNA
[11:19] {nemo} yep
[11:23] {Threei}  X
[11:23] {Threei}  ugh
[11:23] {Threei}  ok
[11:23] {Threei}  27 break long
[11:23] {Threei}  looks bottomed
[11:26] {nemo} Here's the composite view on spy/iwm:  http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=2d1096b5-fd37-45c2-aff2-d66434537d5e
[11:27] {nemo} oh, this is too obvious, spy bottomed at the spring 2011 high
[11:27] {dino} clne l .36
[11:28] {nemo} might be a tad extreme but spy could go to .76
[11:28] {Threei}  lol
[11:29] {Threei}  if missed X on that break, it's valid on this pullback
[11:29] {Threei}  (US) Reminder: three Fed speakers scheduled for this afternoon- 12:30 Fed's Fisher on the economy - 12:45 Fed's Lockhart at FRB Markets conference - 14:30 Fed's Kocherlakota in Minnesota
[11:32] {nemo} cat
[11:34] {Threei}  Spain 10yr back at 6%
[11:36] {Threei}  JPMorgan Chase and Co Reportedly planning to leave the student loan market
[11:36] {Threei}  good idea
[11:36] {thomcbell} kors - dino entry here
[11:36] {nemo} spy doesn't hold .25 area, we check the whole with 136.85 in range, below that 136.40 area
[11:38] {thomcbell} target 45.85 
[11:38] {thomcbell} on kors
[11:40] {Threei}  SPY feels like no bottom here yet either
[11:41] {nemo} has done alot of volume last 8 minutes
[11:49] {Threei}  new low
[11:49] {nemo} 136.85 next
[11:49] {Threei}  it's like everyone suddenly realized Europe never went anywhere
[11:50] {nemo} iwm 78.50 area
[11:50] {Threei}  Transgender women will be allowed to participate in the Miss Universe beauty pageant next year, officials say
[11:50] {Threei}  all is not lost
[11:50] {thomcbell} maybe we should have the reality trader conference there
[11:51] {nemo} oh, boy next is 136.40 area
[11:51] {Threei}  wow
[11:54] {Threei}  ok... starting to look at TNA
[11:54] {nemo} spy not there
[11:55] {Threei}  also, LVS
[11:55] {nemo} cat, wprt
[11:55] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .50 break
[11:56] {Threei}  disregard
[11:56] {Threei}  should give better trigger
[11:56] {nemo} looking for spy below .50
[11:57] {Threei}  hmm
[11:57] {nemo} something tells me we should look for a 2nd bottom or higher low
[11:57] {Threei}  missing entries
[11:57] {Threei}  too sudden s[ikes with no setups
[11:57] {Threei}  yes, need pullback with retests
[11:58] {Threei}  TNA near 53
[11:58] {nemo} yeah, we'll let Les go first
[11:58] {Threei}  and LVS near .45
[11:59] {Threei}  TNA decisively got away
[11:59] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .45 break
[12:01] {Threei}  if holding .35
[12:02] {nemo} no real bounce
[12:02] {nemo} oh oh
[12:04] {Threei}  invalidated of course
[12:05] {nemo} bounced at March lows, but I think spy might see lower
[12:07] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .05 break
[12:07] {Threei}  hl
[12:07] {Threei}  change to 53 break
[12:07] {dino} idcc gap fill
[12:07] {Threei}  stop under .90
[12:08] {nemo} spy not done
[12:09] {Threei}  no
[12:09] {Threei}  TNA was honestly trying
[12:09] {Threei}  alnost made it
[12:10] {nemo} we're at QPP this could be bad, AAPL puking, this will take the market down
[12:10] {nemo} could be bad, besides that Mrs Lincoln, how was the play?
[12:11] {nemo} iwm setting up, spy doesn't look good
[12:14] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .10 break
[12:15] {Threei}  if holding 59 of course
[12:15] {nemo} short below that .05?
[12:15] {Threei}  no... 59, maybe
[12:16] {nemo} see of .05 bid comes back
[12:16] {Threei}  target 1:3
[12:18] {Threei}  1:1
[12:22] {Threei}  scalpers win
[12:23] {nemo} tna l .01
[12:23] {nemo} stop under .90
[12:23] {nemo} oops .06 offer
[12:24] {dino} panl sm l .97
[12:24] {nemo} I'm out if it can't hit .07
[12:24] {nemo} phew
[12:25] {nemo} half .12
[12:25] {nemo} sto to .99
[12:26] {Threei}  good one
[12:26] {dino} stx sm l .80
[12:28] {dino} idcc sm l .87
[12:28] {nemo} 1/4 more .28
[12:29] {dino} gj
[12:30] {Threei}  very nice
[12:30] {nemo} when spy looked lik it had bottomed I looked for entry
[12:32] {nemo} out below .20
[12:33] {nemo} out
[12:33] {nemo} figures
[12:33] {nemo} should have set it to .09
[12:33] {Threei}  KVS lost its golden touch or what
[12:33] {_pepiolas} hi, i could not attend today bc had to deal with hedging portfolio all day...how was the day? nice winning day i missed?
[12:34] {Threei}  hi
[12:34] {Threei}  in profit but not stellar
[12:35] {_pepiolas} looks like good times will be back soon....ranges expanding in indexes and currencies
[12:35] {Threei}  yup
[12:36] {nemo} http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0aJJ6tzNrpY
[12:36] {Threei}  good thing is also, it happens as summer nears
[12:36] {Threei}  hopefully will aleviate summer doldrums
[12:37] {_pepiolas} after massive rally like we had we may get a last uplegg to spooke all the weak shorts and then may and sell away...lol
[12:38] {Threei}  Instagram has 13 employees
[12:38] {Threei}  lol
[12:38] {Threei}  I am still not sure what it is FB bought
[12:39] {Threei}  for 1B, no less
[12:42] {_pepiolas} FB will be remembered as the greatest stock investment when it debuts in the market...not! lol....Next to groupon one of the most overvalued IPOs in history 
[12:43] {dino} wpz sm l .61
[12:43] {dino} meli sm l .55
[12:43] {Threei}  well, they all have competition... VONE, the most disatstrous IPO,
[12:43] {Threei}  and AONE, winner in a contest of the nost stupid CEO comment on the IPO day
[12:44] {_pepiolas} dont remember what he said ....make me laugh....
[12:45] {Threei}  he mused publicly about issuing secondaries
[12:45] {Threei}  on day
[12:45] {Threei}  on IPO day
[12:46] {_pepiolas} lol....genius...that was quick
[12:46] {Threei}  looking at stock performance, one doesn't have to wonder much
[12:48] {_pepiolas} right, ppl who bought at 28 must be chilling in Bahamas ...lol
[12:49] {Threei}  then again we have BATS IPO fiasco
[12:50] {Threei}  its public life continued for what, two minutes?
[12:51] {Threei}  as far as GRPN conerned, I still can't believe they rejected Google offer at, I think 9B
[12:52] {_pepiolas} YHOO equally crazy when rejecting MSFT offer....thought they were googlre
[12:52] {Threei}  yeah, anothe good example of corporate arrogance
[12:53] {Threei}  notice gold today guys
[12:53] {dino} meli stopped
[12:53] {Threei}  instead of dropping with market, it acts as safe haven today
[12:54] {Threei}  it behaves differently depending on the reason for a drop
[12:54] {Threei}  drop caused by
[12:54] {Threei}  normal" economic weakness influences gold negatively
[12:55] {_pepiolas} near 1600 level is too yummy for the smart fund managers not to buy, plus indian gold buy strike over
[12:55] {Threei}  but the weakness caused by Europe troubles often causes opposite reaction
[12:55] {Threei}  as gold joins USD as safe narbor for Euro escapists
[12:56] {Threei}  not always, but often
[13:01] {dino} meli sm l .25
[13:02] {dino} evep drop
[13:03] {dino} sm l .39
[13:05] {Threei}  I dont have a feeling that we found bottom
[13:06] {_pepiolas}  Threei, may i ask you what has been your best day and worst day in chatroom , assuming 1000 shares per call
[13:07] {Threei}  gosh... the room is running from 2000
[13:07] {Threei}  I've no idea
[13:07] {nemo} best day?

[13:07] {Threei}  it would be an easy question for someone whi does it for a year or two
[13:08] {dino} lol
[13:08] {nemo} well, there was that 2+ month stretch in 2008 with no losing days
[13:08] {Threei}  that was nice, lol
[13:08] {nemo} even on the limit down open days
[13:09] {_pepiolas} k, let me put it this way, did u ever make/lose above 1000 a day ....imagining u trade 1000 shares per call since 2010....
[13:10] {Threei}  I am sure
[13:10] {Threei}  but why sinve 2010?
[13:10] {dino} of course
[13:10] {_pepiolas} so its easier to remember ...lol
[13:11] {Threei}  on a losing side, probably not,
[13:12] {Threei}  when we are having rough daym we tend to cut down activity and size
[13:12] {Threei}  so we keep losses to a minimum
[13:12] {_pepiolas} k, i like that...it was to adjust my risk tolerance which is around 1k per day
[13:12] {_pepiolas} a lil less
[13:12] {Threei}  (direct opposite to what many do, btw, trying to dig out of a hioloe and increasing their position size)
[13:13] {_pepiolas} k, thanks
[13:13] {dino} out evep .74, +.35
[13:14] {dino} out panl .25, +.28
[13:14] {Threei}  (US) Fed's Fisher: There is too much liquidity in the US financial system, no bankers are happy with current interest rates- Growth in US jobs is not sufficient.
[13:14] {Threei}  new low SPY
[13:15] {Threei} Short Setup: BBY  .60 break
[13:15] {Threei}  if holding under .70
[13:17] {Threei}  target 1:2
[13:18] {thomcbell} nice 10  minutes on lvs 
[13:18] {Threei}  1:1
[13:18] {Threei}  half out
[13:18] {Threei}  scalpers be free
[13:23] {thomcbell} long setup lvs 57.68 break if holding 57.50
[13:24] {Threei}  scalpers win
[13:24] {thomcbell} target 1:4
[13:33] {thomcbell} lvs invalidated 
[13:39] {nemo} GG
[13:51] {dino} fsin spike
[13:51] {Threei}  (US) Rick Santorum said be considering dropping out of Presidential race as early as tomorrow - financial press
[13:54] {thomcbell} OH HOGWASH LVS 
[13:56] {thomcbell} Vad i suppose with that type of drop my original entry was too aggressive 
[13:56] {thomcbell} second time was better 
[13:56] {thomcbell} obviously !
[13:56] {Threei}  yup
[14:00] {Threei}  second time is a better setup as well
[14:00] {Threei}  clear double bottom
[14:12] {nemo} anf
[14:21] {Threei}  APOL...
[14:22] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .70 break
[14:23] {Threei}  nah, disregard
[14:23] {Threei}  need a bit more consolidation
[14:24] {Threei}  (US) Fed's Kocherlakota: Reiterates that the Fed may begin exit strategy in late 2012 or early 2013
[14:24] {Threei}  'em are fightin' words
[14:25] {Threei}  market no like this kind of talk
[14:26] {Threei} Short Setup: APOL  .60 break
[14:26] {Threei}  if stasys under .70
[14:37] {Threei}  come on... 1 cent shy of 1:1?
[14:37] {Threei}  let's trail stop to .66
[14:38] {Threei}  SPY loses floor as forefelt
[14:38] {Threei}  is that a word?
[14:38] {nemo} NO
[14:38] {Threei}  sigh
[14:39] {Threei}  too badm I liked it
[14:54] {Threei}  half out APOL
[14:54] {Threei}  stop at .63
[15:03] {Threei}  1:1
[15:03] {Threei}  finally, lol
[15:03] {Threei}  can't believe how long it takes
[15:04] {Threei}  I feel like an inwestor
[15:04] {Threei}  and, nemo... inWestor IS a word!
[15:06] {Threei}  stop to .56
[15:07] {Threei}  panic is about to hit
[15:07] {Threei}  and that's after SPY -2.40
[15:08] {Threei}  and DJI -213
[15:11] {Threei}  closed APOL
[15:12] {Threei}  anyone's here?
[15:12] {Threei}  breathing?
[15:12] {rambler} still here...
[15:12] {Threei}  in coma?
[15:13] {Threei}  as lively bunch as nun convention after confiscation of sneaked-in liquor
[15:14] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .75 break
[15:14] {Threei}  if stays above .65
[15:15] {Threei}  Newt Gingrich pledges to stay in GOP presidential race until convention to give conservatives 'a real choice'
[15:15] {Threei}  that's a joke, right?
[15:16] {Threei} Short Setup: GS  115 break small shares
[15:16] {nemo} frickin fslr
[15:16] {Threei}  if stays under .15
[15:18] {Threei}  no gp FAZ
[15:28] {Threei}  no more feeling of further selloff here
[15:28] {Threei}  rather bounce is about to start
[15:29] {Threei} Long Setup:  GS  115 break
[15:29] {Threei}  stop under .90
[15:30] {Threei}  target 1:3
[15:30] {Threei}  1:1
[15:30] {Threei}  1:2
[15:33] {Threei}  out balance
[15:33] {Threei}  easy money
[15:33] {sciborg} argg I didnt get it in time
[15:34] {sciborg} give us 1 more :)
[15:34] {Threei}  looking
[15:34] {Threei}  want one more to finish the day but want a safe one
[15:35] {Threei} Long Setup:  X  .70 break
[15:35] {nemo} breakout oy, I hate breakouts
[15:36] {sciborg} here we go
[15:36] {Threei}  it's not breakout
[15:36] {Threei}  it's a bounce play
[15:37] {nemo} I see it as a breakout of the pullback
[15:37] {Threei}  .64 stop
[15:37] {Threei}  target closer to .80 for scalpers
[15:38] {Threei}  got market bounce right
[15:38] {Threei}  just need a bit of follow-through from X now
[15:41] {dptl} got to go...see ya tomorrow all
[15:43] {Threei}  no go
[15:43] {Threei}  take care dp
[15:43] {sciborg} dang lost a bundle on nthat 1
[15:44] {Threei}  bundle?
[15:44] {Threei}  6 cents stop
[15:44] {sciborg} 12 cents on 5K shares
[15:44] {sciborg} my fault
[15:44] {Threei}  ummm
[15:44] {sciborg} I am dummy :(
[15:44] {sciborg} oh well
[15:44] {sciborg} next :)
[15:44] {Threei}  12 cents??
[15:44] {sciborg} .72 got in
[15:44] {sciborg} sold at 60
[15:45] {Threei}  but stop was .64
[15:45] {sciborg} i know I had it in at .64
[15:45] {sciborg} ddidnt execute on das
[15:45] {sciborg} cost me an extra 200$
[15:47] {Threei}  das?
[15:56] {Threei}  darn thing did it
[15:56] {Threei}  lol
[15:59] {Threei}  OK guys, thank you all
[15:59] {Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow
[15:59] {rambler} cya tomorrow..