One of those days when nothing works. Well, something did - 3 or 4 trades gave scalps, but the stops easily overwhelmed them. Some days you are a windshield, some days you are a bug. Today was a rare "bug" day.
Session Time: Thu Apr 12 00:00:00 2012
[09:02] {dino} gm
[09:02] {Threei} morning dino
[09:10] {dptl} morning
[09:10] {Threei} dp :)
[09:14] {rambler} gm..
[09:14] {Threei} rambler :)
[09:19] {Beau} good morning you all
[09:20] {Threei} beau :)
[09:20] {Threei} nemo sleeps in?
[09:20] {Threei} no one grunts seeing "ggod" morning
[09:20] {Threei} that's how you know nemo is not in the room :)
[09:21] {_pepiolas} gm
[09:21] {Threei} pepiolas :)
[09:22] {Threei} so far: weak gap up was met with slow selling, then bad unemployment numbers let to faster selling, then market stalled
[09:22] {Threei} first impression thus is, we are about to resume decline briefly interrupted by yesterday's reflex bounce
[09:23] {Threei} who thinks otherwise, speak now
[09:24] {Threei} one curious number, btw
[09:24] {Threei} unempl claims are at 380K this morning,
[09:24] {Threei} while trend suggested by a few months of "omprovement" would have us at around 250K if those numbers were realistic
[09:25] {Threei} quite difference
[09:25] {Threei} SLW is particularly weak
[09:26] {dino} gut says up
[09:27] {Threei} mine says down... beer bet is on!
[09:27] {dino} indeed
[09:28] {Threei} if we get a min or tweo of consolidation, FCX is a short on 36.10 break, half lot
[09:28] {Threei} SLW needs a few min to tighten the spread
[09:28] {Threei} then we will see
[09:29] {Threei} FCX, if stays under .20 of course
[09:29] {Threei} nemo... you missed 3 or 4 "good" mornings
[09:30] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX .10 break hl
[09:30] {Threei} if stays under .20
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW .50 break
[09:31] {Threei} if stays under .60
[09:31] {ese} morning...got side tracked reading an article why Guns and Roses split up....forgot to sign in
[09:32] {Threei} lol
[09:34] {ese} L ANR .96
[09:35] {Threei} no go FCX
[09:35] {ese} out 1/2 .06
[09:35] {Threei} SLW invalidated
[09:35] {ese} stop to break even balance
[09:36] {_pepiolas} i am out at .21
[09:36] {dino} sm s rds/a .75
[09:36] {ese} do it!
[09:37] {ese} out in full .18
[09:37] {rambler} gj ese..
[09:37] {ese} +.10 +.23 1 and a 1/2 K each
[09:37] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX .40 break
[09:37] {Threei} hl still
[09:38] {Threei} if stays under .50
[09:38] {ese} tks
[09:38] {ese} talk about your fast decisions
[09:38] {nemo} it's a long day
[09:38] {Threei} invalidated
[09:39] {Threei} but getting closer and c,loser to a good reversal
[09:40] {nemo} iwm probably to 80.30 at least
[09:41] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX .65 break
[09:41] {Threei} invalidated
[09:42] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX .80 break
[09:42] {Threei} change to .90
[09:43] {Threei} target .50
[09:43] {Threei} stop above 37
[09:45] {Threei} sheesh, that's one stubborn move
[09:45] {nemo} all longs all the time
[09:45] {Threei} good reason why we do half lot at the open
[09:46] {Threei} SPY nears premarket resistance
[09:46] {dino} rds/a stop -.32
[09:46] {nemo} iwm leading the way today, might get pause here but 80.30 the target
[09:47] {Threei} feels like one last spike left
[09:47] {nemo} yeah, 80.30 on iwm
[09:47] {Threei} TZA is getting ready for bounce too
[09:48] {nemo} another .30 or so
[09:49] {Threei} Long Setup: TZA .45 break
[09:49] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX .15 break
[09:51] {Threei} if stays under .25, with target 36.80
[09:52] {Threei} invalidated, looking for another trigger
[09:53] {Threei} TZA is still valid
[09:53] {Threei} .20 break FCX
[09:53] {nemo} d[y 137.86 then 138.50
[09:53] {Threei} if sdtays under .40
[09:53] {nemo} spy
[09:54] {Threei} under ,30, sorry
[09:54] {Threei} invalidated
[09:54] {Threei} so id TZA
[09:55] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX .30 break
[09:55] {Threei} if stays under .40
[09:56] {Threei} 10 cents doji
[09:56] {Threei} covering whole range
[09:57] {Threei} target 1:3
[09:58] {Threei} if this is not a reversal, I go to a monastery
[09:58] {nemo} might get to .10, today is a close the gap day
[09:59] {Threei} 1:1
[09:59] {_pepiolas} k, nice recovery
[10:00] {Threei} scalpers win
[10:00] {Threei} really wanted more from this one
[10:00] {Threei} let's see if it double-tops
[10:01] {Threei} same setup once again
[10:01] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX .30 break
[10:01] {Threei} if stays under .40
[10:01] {Threei} nope
[10:02] {Threei} TZA seems ready though
[10:02] {Threei} Long Setup: TZA .35 break
[10:03] {Threei} .25 stop, target closer to .60
[10:05] {dino} sm s mck .30
[10:06] {Threei} half out TZA
[10:07] {Threei} stop to .34
[10:08] {dino} cov mck .20, +.10
[10:08] {nemo} pay and pray day
[10:09] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX .30 break
[10:09] {Threei} this finally should be it
[10:10] {Threei} must be more than a scalp this time
[10:11] {Threei} oh come on
[10:12] {_pepiolas} shoot
[10:12] {Threei} no go
[10:13] {Threei} and TZA, scalpers win
[10:13] {Threei} fighting the trend
[10:16] {Threei} Long Setup: FAZ .30 break
[10:17] {_pepiolas} cant borrow it...
[10:17] {_pepiolas} shoot
[10:17] {Threei} ?
[10:17] {_pepiolas} k, my mistake...lol
[10:18] {Threei} it's long
[10:18] {Threei} offer half here
[10:18] {Threei} stop to .29
[10:18] {dino} sina sm s .47
[10:21] {dino} cov sina .17, +.30
[10:21] {Threei} gj
[10:22] {dino} ty
[10:24] {Threei} offer 1/4 more around .43 - .45
[10:25] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW .25 break
[10:26] {Threei} if stays under .35
[10:28] {Threei} sigh
[10:28] {Threei} FAZ turned into scalp only
[10:28] {Threei} not delighted
[10:29] {dino} ung spike
[10:29] {nemo} it was a gap up day, it just gapped up at the open
[10:30] {Threei} *(US) EIA NATURAL GAS INVENTORIES: +8 BCF V +23 BCF TO +26 BCF EXPECTED RANGE
[10:33] {Threei} Long Setup: LVS .60 break
[10:33] {Threei} if stays above .50
[10:35] {Threei} - NYSE volume 155M shares, about 8% below its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 2.3:1. - NASDAQ volume 295M shares, about 26% below its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 1.8:1.
[10:35] {Threei} low volume climb...
[10:36] {Threei} LVS starts looing like two sided setup
[10:36] {nemo} pull back is over BTFD!!!
[10:37] {rambler} missed
[10:38] {rambler} got it now..
[10:39] {Threei} wtf
[10:39] {nemo} makes sense LVS was very strong in the uptrend, money basically shifted out
[10:39] {nemo} very strong in the downtrend
[10:39] {rambler} durn
[10:40] {Threei} misreading it today
[10:41] {nemo} 138.52 mext target spy, 139 very possible
[10:44] {Threei} Short Setup: RIG .60 break
[10:45] {Threei} if stays under .70
[10:45] {Threei} target 1:2
[10:45] {dino} gaps above 13060, 13196; 2762, 2782; 1398, 1413
[10:46] {_pepiolas} rig out
[10:47] {Threei} officially not my day
[10:48] {Threei} one of those rare ones when I can't trade 25 cents for a phone call
[10:52] {_pepiolas} lvs out...i was kind of curious what a bad day would look like
[10:54] {Threei} ahhh... so that's your fault {G}
[10:54] {Threei} this is pleasant variation - normally it's nemo's fault when anything goes wrong
[10:56] {Threei} but yeah, that's about as bad as it gets - with 2 or 3 winning trades, and even those barely reaching scalp targets, and stops at about 3:1 ratio
[10:59] {Threei} Short Setup: X .50 break
[11:00] {Threei} good 30 - 40 cents of air under it
[11:01] {Threei} standard stop, above .60
[11:01] {nemo} two sided now
[11:02] {Threei} weaker than SPY... my preference on a short side
[11:02] {Threei} then again, on a day when I can't trade my way out of a wet paper bag, my preferences don't mean much
[11:05] {Threei} (DE) German group plans to file a complaint at the constitutional court challenging euro zone bailout facilities and the EU fiscal pact - financial press
[11:05] {Threei} The group will file the challenge if the German parliament passes the measures without holding a referendum.
[11:06] {thomcbell} long setup - kors 43.31 break - 1/2 lot
[11:07] {thomcbell} sensai - i feel like there is something here on lvs - 61.57 break
[11:07] {thomcbell} long
[11:08] {Threei} loses support
[11:08] {thomcbell} lvs invalidated
[11:08] {thomcbell} obviously
[11:08] {thomcbell} like clockwork
[11:10] {thomcbell} kors i am in - using 42.98 as a stop
[11:10] {thomcbell} only half lot
[11:14] {rambler} out X -.11
[11:15] {dino} mktx sm l .10
[11:15] {nemo} I took it long over .55
[11:16] {nemo} computers holding the offer
[11:17] {nemo} I'm taking half here this is a dog
[11:17] {nemo} aapl long anybody?
[11:17] {Threei} RIG was a rinse
[11:18] {Threei} proceeds to a target now
[11:20] {thomcbell} very difficult today
[11:20] {thomcbell} for me
[11:21] {thomcbell} lvs comical
[11:21] {Threei} some days are like this
[11:21] {Threei} it's a game of odds
[11:22] {Threei} thus sometimes you run into cluster of stops
[11:22] {thomcbell} i know trying to slam that into my brain
[11:22] {Threei} it doesn't mean there is abything wrong with approach tested and proven over years
[11:26] {dino} mktx stuck, stop to b/e
[11:27] {Threei} btw, while we are on it, one more important thing to keep in mind
[11:27] {Threei} this kind of days more frequently occur when the market changes its behavior
[11:27] {nemo} always have an open bottle of vodka on your desk?
[11:27] {thomcbell} kors briefly hit 1:3 - i made some sales at 1:2
[11:28] {Threei} hopefully, it's a signal that the rally is getting long in the tooth and we get a good downtrend
[11:28] {Threei} that would be much easier to trade than slow climb
[11:30] {dino} mktx to .40
[11:30] {dino} out +.30
[11:30] {dptl} kors 1:3?
[11:30] {dino} lol nemo, just around the corner
[11:42] {dino} sina sm s .25
[11:46] {Threei} RIG exceeded target by 2x
[11:46] {dino} stopped -.16
[11:47] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX .50 break if stays under .60
[11:48] {Threei} actually, let's play it tighter - if stays under .55
[11:49] {dino} sina rinsed
[11:49] {Threei} tighter stop and less expectaions, merely a scalp with cover a bit above .40
[11:49] {Threei} invalidated
[11:58] {nemo} google after the close, if there numbers are good, huge gap up tomorrow
[12:08] {Threei} BKS
[12:08] {Threei} if dives under 11 but holds .95, 11 breask becomes a long trigger
[12:12] {Threei} no chance
[12:22] {dino} mbi spike
[12:28] {nemo} spy just touched WS1
[12:28] {nemo} 139 next target
[12:32] {dino} sina sm l .01
[12:40] {dino} out sina .22, +.21
[12:40] {Threei} gj
[12:40] {dino} ty
[12:40] {dino} tough pickings today
[12:41] {Threei} tell me about it, lol
[12:55] {nemo} yesterday was one long bull flag
[12:57] {nemo} Friend of mine runs an algorithm, hasn't been one short signal all day and long signals have been persistent
[13:00] {_pepiolas} is that algo commercialized?
[13:01] {nemo} no..not yet
[13:02] {Threei} Long Setup: LVS 61 break
[13:02] {Threei} ugh... late alert
[13:02] {Threei} see if pulls back
[13:02] {Threei} stop under ,95
[13:07] {Threei} what, 7 cents is all you can do, LVS??
[13:07] {nemo} lunchtime
[13:08] {Threei} EAT California court rules that employers must allow for employees to take meal breaks
[13:08] {Threei} seriously? there is a need for court ruling for that?
[13:09] {nemo} wow the creeping persistence upward of so many stocks is incredible
[13:09] {Threei} my most unfavorable trading environment
[13:10] {nemo} gs long might be a good idea
[13:11] {nemo} yeah, we're going to 139 on spy, problem is there is likely to be plenty of time left so 139.30 is possible
[13:12] {Threei} LVS won't spike with SPY
[13:12] {Threei} I am out
[13:14] {rambler} am not...
[13:15] {Threei} well, I have trust issues today :)
[13:15] {rambler} understandable...lol
[13:15] {Threei} hehe
[13:16] {rambler} not a lot of fun today..
[13:16] {Threei} well, LVS has a chance still for you
[13:16] {Threei} needs to take this .07
[13:17] {nemo} aapl the market black sheep today though
[13:17] {nemo} it's disengaging from the market and the Qs are staying up...this is very bullish
[13:21] {Threei} ok
[13:21] {Threei} start exiting
[13:21] {Threei} at least half
[13:21] {Threei} it has nice potential, to aoput .35 - .40
[13:22] {rambler} I bailed earlier...lol
[13:22] {Threei} but the way things trade today, better stay safe
[13:22] {Threei} ok... I am not the only one with trust issues today then, lol
[13:22] {rambler} yup
[13:23] {nemo} pesistence starting to drop
[13:23] {nemo} not sure this will open up shorts
[13:27] {Threei} if it does, I want to be there
[13:27] {Threei} there is a LOT of air to drop through
[13:28] {Threei} look at TZA for instance
[13:28] {Threei} market reverses, this thing has about 60 cents upside potential
[13:29] {dino} s jcp .40
[13:30] {_pepiolas} lvs looking nice
[13:30] {_pepiolas} + 11
[13:30] {Threei} you are partialing out pepiolas?
[13:30] {_pepiolas} yep at +15
[13:30] {Threei} or taking whole thing off?
[13:30] {Threei} OK, great
[13:31] {andj} .
[13:31] {nemo} .30 then vwap on lvs
[13:32] {_pepiolas} stop on rest to 61.04
[13:34] {nemo} here's a bad joke:
[13:34] {nemo} Police just found a woman dead in a bathtub full of milk just 2 houses up the street from me!} Cops said it was a probably a cereal killer
[13:35] {Threei} gosh... and they say my sense of humor is bad...
[13:35] {Threei} I feel like Seinfield next to this
[13:36] {Threei} come on LVS
[13:36] {Threei} deliver some joy to pepiolas
[13:36] {nemo} I have this as a retracement level on LVS
[13:39] {dino} ypf spike
[13:39] {Threei} I'd put second exit around here
[13:40] {Threei} .25
[13:40] {Threei} and last one around .35
[13:42] {nemo} vwap is .45 and falling
[13:42] {nemo} persistence continues to drop
[13:42] {Threei} ok... time for TZA o not yet?
[13:42] {nemo} no negative persistence though, so at most market going flat
[13:43] {Threei} setup is there
[13:43] {Threei} .90 break with stop under .80
[13:46] {Threei} oh, and LVS stop for the last piece is at .14 now
[13:52] {dino} jcp to .27
[13:55] {Threei} TZA starting
[13:55] {dino} to .24
[13:56] {dino} cov .23, +.17 jcp
[13:57] {nemo} indexes dropping but no individual stocks lighting up negative, as a matter of fact only 3 stocks have any type of slightly negative rating
[13:59] {Threei} California Supreme Court rules that company managers do not have to ensure workers take meal breaks
[13:59] {Threei} OK, I am confused
[13:59] {Threei} court says workers have right to eat but managers are no obliged to shove food in their throats?
[13:59] {Threei} did I get it right?
[14:00] {dino} y
[14:00] {Threei} oh good
[14:00] {dino} sort of the you can lead a horse to water but can't make it drink
[14:00] {Threei} great to know that if push comes to show, courts will reinforce our right to breathe
[14:01] {Threei} but won't force managers to shove oxugen tubes down our throats
[14:02] {dino} scanner kicking out red
[14:02] {dino} sm s sina .75
[14:02] {dino} mips spike
[14:05] {dino} sap drop
[14:09] {Threei} here is a piece from one of financial blogs that is in tune with what I read in many places today:
[14:09] {Threei} Speaking of China, tonight we get the GDP number for the 1st quarter and traders I talk to are hearing that this report will be the world's greatest work of fiction since Homer wrote the Iliad. There will probably be some short-covering in EM stocks and materials names if the rumor spreads far and wide enough that China's going to "put up a huge number."
[14:12] {dino} heat drop
[14:15] {nemo} positives starting to light up again
[14:20] {Threei} annoying
[14:20] {Threei} I hate positives
[14:27] {Threei} ok... rally or reversal?
[14:27] {Threei} Long Setup: TZA .90 break
[14:27] {Threei} I am on reversal side mentally
[14:27] {Threei} if you feel likewise, jouin this trade
[14:27] {Threei} if not, stay away
[14:27] {Threei} my judgement is obviously impaired today
[14:27] {dino} looks like i won that beer
[14:28] {Threei} well, I still have an hour and half... but if I had to bet, I'd bet on you at this ploint :)
[14:29] {Threei} wait... Les is not here this week... why do I forget to blame it on him??
[14:29] {Threei} it's all Les fault!
[14:40] {dino} sina stop .01-.26
[14:54] {Threei} guess what... new high SPY
[14:54] {nemo} yeah, at least 139 no shorts today
[14:54] {Threei} ad if I needed any more confirmations that I am having total brain fart today
[14:54] {nemo} I told you to get one of those standing desks, it'll take the pressure off your brains
[14:55] {nemo} You ever see "Remo Williams: The Adventure Begins"
[15:09] {nemo} GS still strong GOOG and Chinese number likely to be bullish, imo
[15:11] {Threei} yes but... we are running up for two days into these numbers
[15:11] {Threei} if world still works as it shpuld, we should get a gap up and selling into it
[15:12] {nemo} have overhead gaps to fill
[15:12] {dino} yes, and downward gaps too
[15:13] {nemo} look at the daily it looks like it needs to go higher first
[15:17] {dino} live spike
[15:24] {Threei} Long Setup: FAZ .65 break
[15:24] {Threei} if stays above .60
[15:34] {nemo} faz looking short
[15:34] {Threei} LVS bolunces off 61 time anad again
[15:36] {Threei} invalidated
[15:37] {dino} jcp s .40
[15:41] {dino} bstop to .38
[15:42] {nemo} 139 coming
[15:43] {dino} cov .31, +.09
[15:46] {dino} mnst drop
[15:49] {Threei} I think it was easily the worst performance of the year for me
[15:49] {dino} sm l .48
[15:49] {Threei} and to add insult to injury, I lost a beer bet to dino
[15:50] {Threei} unless SPY drops 2 dollars in the next 10 minutes
[15:51] {dino} out mnst .58, +.10
[15:51] {nemo} Call no man unhappy until he is married. ~ Socrates
[15:51] {dptl} lol
[15:51] {Threei} Do be do be do - Sinatra
[15:54] {Threei} that pretty much reflects the depth of my thinking today
[15:54] {dino} da da da uhuh uhuh
[15:56] {Threei} lol, the guy that e-mailed me a couple months ago resenting too high percentage of winning trades and days in trading log will be finally happy today
[15:56] {dino} calling it a day, thx all
[15:56] {Threei} thank you all, have a great evening,
[15:56] {Threei} we will get them tomorrow
[15:57] {Threei} see you in the morning
[15:57] {dptl} good night all
[15:58] {rambler} cu all in the a.m.
