Thursday, April 12, 2012

Apr 12 2012

One of those days when nothing works. Well, something did - 3 or 4 trades gave scalps, but the stops easily overwhelmed them. Some days you are a windshield, some days you are a bug. Today was a rare "bug" day.

Session Time: Thu Apr 12 00:00:00 2012
[09:02] {dino} gm
[09:02] {Threei}  morning dino
[09:10] {dptl} morning
[09:10] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:14] {rambler} gm..
[09:14] {Threei}  rambler :)
[09:19] {Beau} good morning you all
[09:20] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:20] {Threei}  nemo sleeps in?
[09:20] {Threei}  no one grunts seeing "ggod" morning
[09:20] {Threei}  that's how you know nemo is not in the room :)
[09:21] {_pepiolas} gm
[09:21] {Threei}  pepiolas :)
[09:22] {Threei}  so far: weak gap up was met with slow selling, then bad unemployment numbers let to faster selling, then market stalled
[09:22] {Threei}  first impression thus is, we are about to resume decline briefly interrupted by yesterday's reflex bounce
[09:23] {Threei}  who thinks otherwise, speak now
[09:24] {Threei}  one curious number, btw
[09:24] {Threei}  unempl claims are at 380K this morning,
[09:24] {Threei}  while trend suggested by a few months of "omprovement" would have us at around 250K if those numbers were realistic
[09:25] {Threei}  quite difference
[09:25] {Threei}  SLW is particularly weak
[09:26] {dino} gut says up
[09:27] {Threei}  mine says down... beer bet is on!
[09:27] {dino} indeed
[09:28] {Threei}  if we get a min or tweo of consolidation, FCX is a short on 36.10 break, half lot
[09:28] {Threei}  SLW needs a few min to tighten the spread
[09:28] {Threei}  then we will see
[09:29] {Threei}  FCX, if stays under .20 of course
[09:29] {Threei}  nemo... you missed 3 or 4 "good" mornings
[09:30] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .10 break hl
[09:30] {Threei}  if stays under .20
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .50 break
[09:31] {Threei}  if stays under .60
[09:31] {ese} side tracked reading an article why Guns and Roses split up....forgot to sign in
[09:32] {Threei}  lol
[09:34] {ese} L ANR .96
[09:35] {Threei}  no go FCX
[09:35] {ese} out  1/2 .06
[09:35] {Threei}  SLW invalidated
[09:35] {ese} stop to break even balance
[09:36] {_pepiolas} i am out at .21
[09:36] {dino} sm s rds/a .75
[09:36] {ese} do it!
[09:37] {ese} out in full .18
[09:37] {rambler} gj ese..
[09:37] {ese} +.10 +.23 1 and a 1/2 K each
[09:37] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .40 break
[09:37] {Threei}  hl still
[09:38] {Threei}  if stays under .50
[09:38] {ese} tks 
[09:38] {ese} talk about your fast decisions
[09:38] {nemo} it's a long day
[09:38] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:39] {Threei}  but getting closer and c,loser to a good reversal
[09:40] {nemo} iwm probably to 80.30 at least
[09:41] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .65 break
[09:41] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:42] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .80 break
[09:42] {Threei}  change to .90
[09:43] {Threei}  target .50
[09:43] {Threei}  stop above 37
[09:45] {Threei}  sheesh, that's one stubborn move
[09:45] {nemo} all longs all the time
[09:45] {Threei}  good reason why we do half lot at the open
[09:46] {Threei}  SPY nears premarket resistance
[09:46] {dino} rds/a stop -.32
[09:46] {nemo} iwm leading the way today, might get pause here but 80.30 the target
[09:47] {Threei}  feels like one last spike left
[09:47] {nemo} yeah, 80.30 on iwm
[09:47] {Threei}  TZA is getting ready for bounce too
[09:48] {nemo} another .30 or so
[09:49] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .45 break
[09:49] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .15 break
[09:51] {Threei}  if stays under .25, with target 36.80
[09:52] {Threei}  invalidated, looking for another trigger
[09:53] {Threei}  TZA is still valid
[09:53] {Threei}  .20 break FCX
[09:53] {nemo} d[y 137.86 then 138.50
[09:53] {Threei}  if sdtays under .40
[09:53] {nemo} spy
[09:54] {Threei}  under ,30, sorry
[09:54] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:54] {Threei}  so id TZA
[09:55] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .30 break
[09:55] {Threei}  if stays under .40
[09:56] {Threei}  10 cents doji
[09:56] {Threei}  covering whole range
[09:57] {Threei}  target 1:3
[09:58] {Threei}  if this is not a reversal, I go to a monastery
[09:58] {nemo} might get to .10, today is a close the gap day
[09:59] {Threei}  1:1
[09:59] {_pepiolas} k, nice recovery 
[10:00] {Threei}  scalpers win
[10:00] {Threei}  really wanted more from this one
[10:00] {Threei}  let's see if it double-tops
[10:01] {Threei}  same setup once again
[10:01] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .30 break
[10:01] {Threei}  if stays under .40
[10:01] {Threei}  nope
[10:02] {Threei}  TZA seems ready though
[10:02] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .35 break
[10:03] {Threei}  .25 stop, target closer to .60
[10:05] {dino} sm s mck .30
[10:06] {Threei}  half out TZA
[10:07] {Threei}  stop to .34
[10:08] {dino} cov mck .20, +.10
[10:08] {nemo} pay and pray day
[10:09] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .30 break
[10:09] {Threei}  this finally should be it
[10:10] {Threei}  must be more than a scalp this time
[10:11] {Threei}  oh come on
[10:12] {_pepiolas} shoot
[10:12] {Threei}  no go
[10:13] {Threei}  and TZA, scalpers win
[10:13] {Threei}  fighting the trend
[10:16] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .30 break
[10:17] {_pepiolas} cant borrow it...
[10:17] {_pepiolas} shoot
[10:17] {Threei}  ?
[10:17] {_pepiolas} k, my
[10:18] {Threei}  it's long
[10:18] {Threei}  offer half here
[10:18] {Threei}  stop to .29
[10:18] {dino} sina sm s .47
[10:21] {dino} cov sina .17, +.30
[10:21] {Threei}  gj
[10:22] {dino} ty
[10:24] {Threei}  offer 1/4 more around .43 - .45
[10:25] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .25 break
[10:26] {Threei}  if stays under .35
[10:28] {Threei}  sigh
[10:28] {Threei}  FAZ turned into scalp only
[10:28] {Threei}  not delighted
[10:29] {dino} ung spike
[10:29] {nemo} it was a gap up day, it just gapped up at the open
[10:33] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .60 break
[10:33] {Threei}  if stays above .50
[10:35] {Threei}  - NYSE volume 155M shares, about 8% below its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 2.3:1. - NASDAQ volume 295M shares, about 26% below its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 1.8:1.
[10:35] {Threei}  low volume climb...
[10:36] {Threei}  LVS starts looing like two sided setup
[10:36] {nemo} pull back is over BTFD!!!
[10:37] {rambler} missed
[10:38] {rambler} got it now..
[10:39] {Threei}  wtf
[10:39] {nemo} makes sense LVS was very strong in the uptrend, money basically shifted out
[10:39] {nemo} very strong in the downtrend
[10:39] {rambler} durn
[10:40] {Threei}  misreading it today
[10:41] {nemo} 138.52 mext target spy, 139 very possible
[10:44] {Threei} Short Setup: RIG  .60 break
[10:45] {Threei}  if stays under .70
[10:45] {Threei}  target 1:2
[10:45] {dino} gaps above 13060, 13196; 2762, 2782; 1398, 1413
[10:46] {_pepiolas} rig out
[10:47] {Threei}  officially not my day
[10:48] {Threei}  one of those rare ones when I can't trade 25 cents for a phone call
[10:52] {_pepiolas} lvs out...i was kind of curious what a bad day would look like 
[10:54] {Threei}  ahhh... so that's your fault {G}
[10:54] {Threei}  this is pleasant variation - normally it's nemo's fault when anything goes wrong
[10:56] {Threei}  but yeah, that's about as bad as it gets - with 2 or 3 winning trades, and even those barely reaching scalp targets, and stops at about 3:1 ratio
[10:59] {Threei} Short Setup: X  .50 break
[11:00] {Threei}  good 30 - 40 cents of air under it
[11:01] {Threei}  standard stop, above .60
[11:01] {nemo} two sided now
[11:02] {Threei}  weaker than SPY... my preference on a short side
[11:02] {Threei}  then again, on a day when I can't trade my way out of a wet paper bag, my preferences don't mean much
[11:05] {Threei}  (DE) German group plans to file a complaint at the constitutional court challenging euro zone bailout facilities and the EU fiscal pact - financial press
[11:05] {Threei}  The group will file the challenge if the German parliament passes the measures without holding a referendum.
[11:06] {thomcbell} long setup - kors 43.31 break - 1/2 lot 
[11:07] {thomcbell} sensai - i feel like there is something here on lvs - 61.57 break 
[11:07] {thomcbell} long
[11:08] {Threei}  loses support
[11:08] {thomcbell} lvs invalidated 
[11:08] {thomcbell} obviously
[11:08] {thomcbell} like clockwork
[11:10] {thomcbell} kors i am in - using 42.98 as a stop 
[11:10] {thomcbell} only half lot 
[11:14] {rambler} out X    -.11
[11:15] {dino} mktx sm l .10
[11:15] {nemo} I took it long over .55
[11:16] {nemo} computers holding the offer
[11:17] {nemo} I'm taking half here this is a dog
[11:17] {nemo} aapl long anybody?
[11:17] {Threei}  RIG was a rinse
[11:18] {Threei}  proceeds to a target now
[11:20] {thomcbell} very difficult today 
[11:20] {thomcbell} for me 
[11:21] {thomcbell} lvs comical
[11:21] {Threei}  some days are like this
[11:21] {Threei}  it's a game of odds
[11:22] {Threei}  thus sometimes you run into cluster of stops
[11:22] {thomcbell} i know trying to slam that into my brain
[11:22] {Threei}  it doesn't mean there is abything wrong with approach tested and proven over years
[11:26] {dino} mktx stuck, stop to b/e
[11:27] {Threei}  btw, while we are on it, one more important thing to keep in mind
[11:27] {Threei}  this kind of days more frequently occur when the market changes its behavior
[11:27] {nemo} always have an open bottle of vodka on your desk?
[11:27] {thomcbell} kors briefly hit 1:3 - i made some sales at 1:2 
[11:28] {Threei}  hopefully, it's a signal that the rally is getting long in the tooth and we get a good downtrend
[11:28] {Threei}  that would be much easier to trade than slow climb
[11:30] {dino} mktx to .40
[11:30] {dino} out +.30
[11:30] {dptl} kors 1:3?
[11:30] {dino} lol nemo, just around the corner
[11:42] {dino} sina sm s .25
[11:46] {Threei}  RIG exceeded target by 2x
[11:46] {dino} stopped -.16
[11:47] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .50 break if stays under .60
[11:48] {Threei}  actually, let's play it tighter - if stays under .55
[11:49] {dino} sina rinsed
[11:49] {Threei}  tighter stop and less expectaions, merely a scalp with cover a bit above .40
[11:49] {Threei}  invalidated
[11:58] {nemo} google after the close, if there numbers are good, huge gap up tomorrow
[12:08] {Threei}  BKS
[12:08] {Threei}  if dives under 11 but holds .95, 11 breask becomes a long trigger
[12:12] {Threei}  no chance
[12:22] {dino} mbi spike
[12:28] {nemo} spy just touched WS1
[12:28] {nemo} 139 next target
[12:32] {dino} sina sm l .01
[12:40] {dino} out sina .22, +.21
[12:40] {Threei}  gj
[12:40] {dino} ty
[12:40] {dino} tough pickings today
[12:41] {Threei}  tell me about it, lol
[12:55] {nemo} yesterday was one long bull flag
[12:57] {nemo} Friend of mine runs an algorithm, hasn't been one short signal all day and long signals have been persistent
[13:00] {_pepiolas} is that algo commercialized?
[13:01] {nemo} no..not yet
[13:02] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  61 break
[13:02] {Threei}  ugh... late alert
[13:02] {Threei}  see if pulls back
[13:02] {Threei}  stop under ,95
[13:07] {Threei}  what, 7 cents is all you can do, LVS??
[13:07] {nemo} lunchtime
[13:08] {Threei}  EAT California court rules that employers must allow for employees to take meal breaks
[13:08] {Threei}  seriously? there is a need for court ruling for that?
[13:09] {nemo} wow the creeping persistence upward of so many stocks is incredible
[13:09] {Threei}  my most unfavorable trading environment
[13:10] {nemo} gs long might be a good idea
[13:11] {nemo} yeah, we're going to 139 on spy, problem is there is likely to be plenty of time left so 139.30 is possible
[13:12] {Threei}  LVS won't spike with SPY
[13:12] {Threei}  I am out
[13:14] {rambler} am not...
[13:15] {Threei}  well, I have trust issues today :)
[13:15] {rambler}
[13:15] {Threei}  hehe
[13:16] {rambler} not a lot of fun today..
[13:16] {Threei}  well, LVS has a chance still for you
[13:16] {Threei}  needs to take this .07
[13:17] {nemo} aapl the market black sheep today though
[13:17] {nemo} it's disengaging from the market and the Qs are staying up...this is very bullish
[13:21] {Threei}  ok
[13:21] {Threei}  start exiting
[13:21] {Threei}  at least half
[13:21] {Threei}  it has nice potential, to aoput .35 - .40
[13:22] {rambler} I bailed
[13:22] {Threei}  but the way things trade today, better stay safe
[13:22] {Threei}  ok... I am not the only one with trust issues today then, lol
[13:22] {rambler} yup
[13:23] {nemo} pesistence starting to drop
[13:23] {nemo} not sure this will open up shorts
[13:27] {Threei}  if it does, I want to be there
[13:27] {Threei}  there is a LOT of air to drop through
[13:28] {Threei}  look at TZA for instance
[13:28] {Threei}  market reverses, this thing has about 60 cents upside potential
[13:29] {dino} s jcp .40
[13:30] {_pepiolas} lvs looking nice
[13:30] {_pepiolas} + 11
[13:30] {Threei}  you are partialing out pepiolas?
[13:30] {_pepiolas} yep at +15
[13:30] {Threei}  or taking whole thing off?
[13:30] {Threei}  OK, great
[13:31] {andj} .
[13:31] {nemo} .30 then vwap on lvs
[13:32] {_pepiolas} stop on rest to 61.04
[13:34] {nemo} here's a bad joke:
[13:34] {nemo} Police just found a woman dead in a bathtub full of milk just 2 houses up the street from me!} Cops said it was a probably a cereal killer
[13:35] {Threei}  gosh... and they say my sense of humor is bad...
[13:35] {Threei}  I feel like Seinfield next to this
[13:36] {Threei}  come on LVS
[13:36] {Threei}  deliver some joy to pepiolas
[13:36] {nemo} I have this as a retracement level on LVS
[13:39] {dino} ypf spike
[13:39] {Threei}  I'd put second exit around here
[13:40] {Threei}  .25
[13:40] {Threei}  and last one around .35
[13:42] {nemo} vwap is .45 and falling
[13:42] {nemo} persistence continues to drop
[13:42] {Threei}  ok... time for TZA o not yet?
[13:42] {nemo} no negative persistence though, so at most market going flat
[13:43] {Threei}  setup is there
[13:43] {Threei}  .90 break with stop under .80
[13:46] {Threei}  oh, and LVS stop for the last piece is at .14 now
[13:52] {dino} jcp to .27
[13:55] {Threei}  TZA starting
[13:55] {dino} to .24
[13:56] {dino} cov .23, +.17 jcp
[13:57] {nemo} indexes dropping but no individual stocks lighting up negative, as a matter of fact only 3 stocks have any type of slightly negative rating
[13:59] {Threei}  California Supreme Court rules that company managers do not have to ensure workers take meal breaks
[13:59] {Threei}  OK, I am confused
[13:59] {Threei}  court says workers have right to eat but managers are no obliged to shove food in their throats?
[13:59] {Threei}  did I get it right?
[14:00] {dino} y
[14:00] {Threei}  oh good
[14:00] {dino} sort of the you can lead a horse to water but can't make it drink
[14:00] {Threei}  great to know that if push comes to show, courts will reinforce our right to breathe
[14:01] {Threei}  but won't force managers to shove oxugen tubes down our throats
[14:02] {dino} scanner kicking out red
[14:02] {dino} sm s sina .75
[14:02] {dino} mips spike
[14:05] {dino} sap drop
[14:09] {Threei}  here is a piece from one of financial blogs that is in tune with what I read in many places today:
[14:09] {Threei}  Speaking of China, tonight we get the GDP number for the 1st quarter and traders I talk to are hearing that this report will be the world's greatest work of fiction since Homer wrote the Iliad. There will probably be some short-covering in EM stocks and materials names if the rumor spreads far and wide enough that China's going to "put up a huge number."
[14:12] {dino} heat drop
[14:15] {nemo} positives starting to light up again
[14:20] {Threei}  annoying
[14:20] {Threei}  I hate positives
[14:27] {Threei}  ok... rally or reversal?
[14:27] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .90 break
[14:27] {Threei}  I am on reversal side mentally
[14:27] {Threei}  if you feel likewise, jouin this trade
[14:27] {Threei}  if not, stay away
[14:27] {Threei}  my judgement is obviously impaired today
[14:27] {dino} looks like i won that beer
[14:28] {Threei}  well, I still have an hour and half... but if I had to bet, I'd bet on you at this ploint :)
[14:29] {Threei}  wait... Les is not here this week... why do I forget to blame it on him??
[14:29] {Threei}  it's all Les fault!
[14:40] {dino} sina stop .01-.26
[14:54] {Threei}  guess what... new high SPY
[14:54] {nemo} yeah, at least 139 no shorts today
[14:54] {Threei}  ad if I needed any more confirmations that I am having total brain fart today
[14:54] {nemo} I told you to get one of those standing desks, it'll take the pressure off your brains
[14:55] {nemo} You ever see "Remo Williams: The Adventure Begins"
[15:09] {nemo} GS still strong GOOG and Chinese number likely to be bullish, imo
[15:11] {Threei}  yes but... we are running up for two days into these numbers
[15:11] {Threei}  if world still works as it shpuld, we should get a gap up and selling into it
[15:12] {nemo} have overhead gaps to fill
[15:12] {dino} yes, and downward gaps too
[15:13] {nemo} look at the daily it looks like it needs to go higher first
[15:17] {dino} live spike
[15:24] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .65 break
[15:24] {Threei}  if stays above .60
[15:34] {nemo} faz looking short
[15:34] {Threei}  LVS bolunces off 61 time anad again
[15:36] {Threei}  invalidated
[15:37] {dino} jcp s .40
[15:41] {dino} bstop to .38
[15:42] {nemo} 139 coming
[15:43] {dino} cov .31, +.09
[15:46] {dino} mnst drop
[15:49] {Threei}  I think it was easily the worst performance of the year for me
[15:49] {dino} sm l .48
[15:49] {Threei}  and to add insult to injury, I lost a beer bet to dino
[15:50] {Threei}  unless SPY drops 2 dollars in the next 10 minutes
[15:51] {dino} out mnst .58, +.10
[15:51] {nemo} Call no man unhappy until he is married. ~ Socrates
[15:51] {dptl} lol
[15:51] {Threei}  Do be do be do - Sinatra
[15:54] {Threei}  that pretty much reflects the depth of my thinking today
[15:54] {dino} da da da uhuh uhuh
[15:56] {Threei}  lol, the guy that e-mailed me a couple months ago resenting too high percentage of winning trades and days in trading log will be finally happy today
[15:56] {dino} calling it a day, thx all
[15:56] {Threei}  thank you all, have a great evening,
[15:56] {Threei}  we will get them tomorrow
[15:57] {Threei}  see you in the morning
[15:57] {dptl} good night all
[15:58] {rambler} cu all in the a.m.