Monday, April 16, 2012

Apr 16 2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now:  )

Ended the day slightly positive but it took some sweating. A few too many stop in the morning required digging out - digging out we did. A bit too much like work though.

Session Time: Mon Apr 16 00:00:00 2012
[08:18] {sciborg} gm
[08:35] {Threei}  morning sciborg
[08:53] {_bobwi} good morning all
[08:53] {Threei}  bobwi :)
[08:53] {nemo} I'm gonna puke
[08:53] {Threei}  thanks for the visual
[08:54] {nemo} well, good retail numbers, bad mfg.  market up
[08:54] {Threei}  slw
[08:54] {Threei}  why so weak
[09:00] {dptl} good morning
[09:01] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:02] {nemo} mmmhhh...spy a bull flag here
[09:02] {nemo} wants 138 probably
[09:03] {Threei}  *(US) APR EMPIRE MANUFACTURING: 6.5 V 18.00E
[09:03] {Threei}  sheesh
[09:03] {nemo} yeah and retail was good, market up
[09:03] {nemo} see what it does at 138
[09:03] {Threei}  but Spanish bonds remain above 6%
[09:04] {nemo} you have a point?
[09:04] {nemo} tlt is at red and at the bottom of it's range
[09:04] {Threei}  and if that is not resolves soon, all economic numbers won't mean squat
[09:04] {nemo} there's a firewall, didn't you hear
[09:04] {Threei}  haha
[09:05] {Threei}  even firewal; around tiny Greece is not going to hold if fire resumes... let alone Spain
[09:05] {Threei}  and speaking of Greece,
[09:05] {Threei}
[09:10] {Beau} good morning you all
[09:11] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:18] {MigC}  good morning
[09:18] {Threei}  migc :)
[09:20] {nemo} spain 10 yr now below 6%
[09:22] {Threei}  haleluja
[09:22] {Threei}  for how long though
[09:22] {nemo} coupla minutes ;)
[09:22] {Threei}  lol
[09:23] {Threei}  targeting SLW as a short play
[09:23] {Threei}  not right at the open though
[09:23] {Threei}  it normally takes a few minutes after the bell to tighten the spread
[09:24] {ese} morning
[09:24] {ese} 2 weeks from today and i'm in Nashville
[09:24] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:27] {Threei}  directiuon at the open is unclear
[09:28] {Threei}  going to skip first minutes and observe
[09:28] {ese} wise
[09:30] {Threei}  SLW if bounces into .50 - .60 range becomes a short there
[09:31] {Threei}  FCX is rather long for bounce
[09:31] {Threei}  no clear trigger yet
[09:31] {Threei}  prepare half lot
[09:32] {Threei}  got away
[09:32] {Threei}  pullback for double bottom then
[09:34] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .45 break
[09:34] {Threei}  change to .50 break
[09:35] {Threei}  if stays under ..60
[09:36] {Threei}  no worky
[09:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .40 break
[09:37] {Threei}  if stays above .30
[09:38] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:38] {ese} nope
[09:38] {Threei}  change to .35 break
[09:39] {Threei}  .25 stop
[09:39] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:39] {Threei}  SLW rinsed
[09:40] {Threei}  scoundrel
[09:40] {thomcbell} lvs
[09:40] {thomcbell} wow
[09:41] {Threei}  no go FCX
[09:42] {Threei}  RIG
[09:43] {ese} power outage on slot machines maybe?
[09:43] {nemo} figures, upro became hard to borrow today
[09:47] {dino} .
[09:47] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIG  .70 break
[09:47] {Threei}  stop under .60
[09:47] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:49] {Threei}  1:1
[09:49] {Threei}  half out
[09:49] {Threei}  stop to .68
[09:50] {Threei}  scalpers win
[09:52] {Threei}  two sets of numbers at 10
[09:53] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .45 break
[09:53] {Threei}  if stays under .55
[09:54] {Threei}  1:1 if you got it
[09:54] {sciborg} arrgggg missed it di
[09:54] {Threei}  yeah, was fast on a break
[09:54] {sciborg} nice call
[09:55] {Threei} Short Setup: FC  .25 break
[09:55] {Threei}  FCX
[09:55] {Threei}  if stays under .35
[09:56] {dino} 2695 ndx filled, next 2646
[09:56] {Threei}  too close to numbers time now, disregard
[09:56] {Threei}  let's sit them out
[09:57] {dino} opps 2762 gap
[09:57] {dino} above
[09:59] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .40 brea
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) APR NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX: 25 V 28E
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) FEB BUSINESS INVENTORIES: 0.6% V 0.6%E
[10:02] {ese} sprd dn 15% so far
[10:02] {Threei}  no secondary entry
[10:03] {Threei}  feel free to cover FCX if got it first time
[10:04] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .05 break
[10:05] {Threei}  if holding 30
[10:05] {ese} L sprd .63
[10:05] {ese} sm
[10:08] {Threei}  half out .14
[10:08] {Threei}  scalpers know wgat to do
[10:08] {ese} stop sprd .50
[10:08] {Threei}  stop to .04
[10:09] {Threei}  scalpers win
[10:09] {Threei}  again
[10:10] {nemo} amln
[10:11] {Threei}  LVS on radar for long
[10:11] {ese} stopped sprd .49 -.14 spyderswent against me
[10:12] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .30 break hl
[10:12] {Threei}  if atas above .20
[10:12] {Threei}  stays
[10:13] {Threei}  nope
[10:15] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .75 break
[10:15] {Threei}  if holding .70
[10:16] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:16] {Threei}  a lot more weakness in the market than you'd expect from pre-market action
[10:17] {Threei}  I guess Europe concerns override everything at this point
[10:19] {Threei}  TZA, watching for long on pullback under 20
[10:20] {dino} jpm gap fill
[10:22] {Threei}  change of plan
[10:22] {Threei}  SPY has a chance to form double bottom here
[10:22] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .60 break
[10:22] {Threei}  stop under .50
[10:22] {Threei}  target 1:3
[10:23] {Threei}  1:1
[10:23] {Threei}  first partial
[10:23] {Threei}  stop to .55
[10:23] {Threei}  scalpers as always... know what to do
[10:24] {Threei}  stop to .59
[10:24] {Threei}  was 2 cents from 1:2
[10:25] {Threei}  these pesky scalpers win again
[10:26] {Threei}  ugh... overtightened stop
[10:27] {Threei}  idea was right, management lacked
[10:28] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIG  .45 break
[10:28] {Threei}  if holding .35
[10:29] {Threei}  target 1:2
[10:30] {Threei}  let's trail to .39
[10:30] {Threei}  1:1
[10:30] {Threei}  trail to .44
[10:31] {Threei}  grrr TNA... nothing like getting the reversal right on and being rinsed on the partial
[10:33] {Threei}  if scalpers win on RIG, I may consider becoming one
[10:37] {Threei}  what do you know
[10:37] {Threei} Short Setup: SNE  .45 break
[10:41] {Threei}  SNE is a slow one
[10:41] {dino} wfc l .00
[10:42] {Threei}  may look for something else while it thinks what to do
[10:42] {nemo} yeah, didn't know it was trading
[10:46] {Threei}  invalidated anyway
[10:52] {_bobwi} FCX .20 bd?
[10:52] {_bobwi} stop .26?
[10:52] {Threei}  pretty much SPY dependent
[10:52] {Threei}  can go ohter way just as easy
[10:53] {_bobwi} yes, ty
[10:53] {Threei}  SPY id uncertain here
[10:56] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .50 break
[10:56] {ese} cya tomorrow
[10:56] {Threei}  take care ese
[10:57] {dino} out wfc .07, +.07
[10:58] {Threei}  LVS, if holding under .60
[10:59] {Threei}  LVS target 1:2
[11:02] {Threei}  1:1
[11:03] {Threei}  1:2, over and out
[11:04] {nemo} spy and iwm weakening
[11:07] {dino} wprt blood
[11:14] {dino} meli gap fill
[11:15] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .20 break
[11:18] {Threei}  invalidated of course, but on radar
[11:20] {dino} meli sm l .40
[11:21] {Threei}  SPY, 137-137.15 range break will determine next direction
[11:21] {Threei}  my feel is up
[11:22] {Threei}  to about .40 - .45
[11:22] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .80 break
[11:22] {Threei}  stop under .70 for scalprs
[11:22] {Threei}  .65 day traders
[11:25] {Threei}  held by fingertips
[11:26] {Beau} not for scalps
[11:27] {Threei}  they win way too many today... we day traders need some wins too
[11:29] {thomcbell} short setup qcom 65.99 break if stays under 66.10
[11:29] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  37 break
[11:30] {Threei}  guess whnat... frikin scalpers managed to win this one too
[11:30] {Threei}  they win even when they lose
[11:31] {Threei}  wrong on SPY range break... it elected breakdown after all
[11:31] {dino} meli stop
[11:32] {Threei}  FCX starts looking like two-sided
[11:32] {Threei}  .90 break short
[11:34] {dino} ypf drop
[11:35] {Threei} Short Setup: X  .10 break
[11:35] {Threei}  if stays under .20
[11:36] {dptl} fcx 37 stop?
[11:36] {Threei}  yes
[11:37] {Threei}  well, just above, as always
[11:37] {dptl} k
[11:41] {Threei}  nope
[11:41] {Threei}  not delighted
[11:41] {Threei}  no follow through on setups
[11:41] {dino} ypf blood, nationalization rumors, announcement at 12 pm
[11:44] {Threei}  YPF Sociedad Argentina Govt confirms bill to be sent to Senate for energy sovereignty and hydrocarbons; goal will be for the country to be self sufficient on hydrocarbons- Confirms bill will seek control over YPF; remaining 49% of the company would be owned by provinces
[11:44] {Threei}  - Reminder: on 4/12 legislation was being sent for consideration to force an acquisition of a majority stake(50.01%) in YPF
[11:44] {Threei}  - Reminder: on 4/13 the Spain Govt noted that Argentina proposed action against YPF would be very negative; Spain has an obligation to protect the nation's interests
[11:46] {dino} reminds me of anaconda copper
[11:47] {dino} atlas shrugged
[11:47] {dino} jpm l .96
[12:00] {Threei}  JPM is honestly trying
[12:03] {Threei}  nice oine
[12:03] {Threei}  wtg
[12:05] {dino} out jpm .15, +.19
[12:09] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .55 break
[12:09] {Threei}  if stays under .65
[12:10] {dino} ty
[12:11] {Threei}  SLW is a cleanest setup
[12:11] {Threei}  if this doesn't work, I go to a monastery
[12:12] {nemo} lunchtime though
[12:12] {Threei}  yes but still
[12:12] {Threei}  as clean DBI as they come
[12:17] {Threei}  it's time SLW
[12:17] {Threei}  lose .50 and die
[12:18] {nemo} that's asking for trouble I think, too quiet
[12:18] {Threei}  I don't mind it dying quietly
[12:19] {Threei}  but if it makes you nervous, stop can be trailed to .61 at this point
[12:19] {Threei}  it spent enough time under .60 for this trail to make sense
[12:19] {nemo} oh, you entered .55, was thinking break of .50
[12:26] {Threei}  the longer it sits here the less likely it is to work
[12:27] {Threei}  decide for yourself, to hold it with tight stop at .61 or scratch
[12:28] {dptl} out flat
[12:29] {nemo} any news gmcr?
[12:30] {Threei}  Detwiler positive comments about 25 min ago
[12:30] {Threei}  that's all
[12:34] {dptl} lol..i was holding it...slw
[12:34] {Threei}  half out
[12:34] {Threei}  scalpers, you know...
[12:37] {Threei}  good thing is, I don't have to go to a monastery
[12:37] {dino} hig l .85
[12:50] {Threei}  (DE) Germany Chancellor Merkel: Must avoid being at the mercy of bond markets; there is a risk of higher yields if cannot control debt limits
[12:50] {Threei}  (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble: Some form of financial market tax (tobin) will eventually come in Europe; confident in ability to manage the Euro crisis- Notes financial speculation should be restricted and within limits - Firewall cannot solve all problems - Notes that he disagrees with George Soros assessment that the crisis could be deadly
[12:50] {Threei}  financial speculation should be restricted, eh?
[12:51] {Threei}  restrict your free spending, imbecile
[12:52] {Threei}  these guys must believe that if you create thermometers that are not allow to go over 98F, fever will be cure
[12:52] {Threei}  cured
[12:53] {_bobwi} lol
[12:57] {Threei}  SLW death is horrifically slow
[12:57] {Threei}  amazing how weak it is
[12:58] {Threei}  my stop is .51 now
[13:00] {Threei}  1:2, even as SPY soars
[13:00] {Threei}  1/4 more out
[13:01] {Threei}  and stop to .46
[13:01] {dino} out hig .97, +.12
[13:07] {nemo} fcx looks short
[13:10] {Threei}  bidding last piece .25
[13:10] {Threei}  stop to .41
[13:11] {Threei}  crap... curling iron sells at Groupon at 76% off, and I have no hair to use it on...
[13:17] {dino} hig l .99
[13:18] {Threei}  trailing to .36
[13:18] {Threei}  time to chok it
[13:18] {Threei}  out last piece
[13:19] {Threei}  this doesn't take me in the plus for the day but takes the sting out in lasrge part
[13:26] {dino} out hig flat
[13:27] {Threei}  wow, even 1:3 was too soon on SLW
[13:27] {nemo} probably going to that doji on the daily
[13:28] {Threei}  which one? from 12/30?
[13:28] {nemo} yeah
[13:44] {dino} met l .65
[13:44] {Threei}  was thinking of X .30 break long and decided against it... now regretting
[13:51] {Threei} Short Setup: HD  .80 break
[13:51] {Threei}  if stays under .85
[13:52] {Threei}  just a scalp most likely
[13:53] {Les} ciao
06[13:53] * Threei slaps Les around a bit with a large greeting banner
[13:53] {nemo} Sheila!!!
[13:53] {Les} piss off
[13:53] {nemo} XXXOOO
[13:53] {dino} met stop -.02
[13:54] {Les} I see market pressure ratcheting up a little while away
[13:55] {Threei}  want to make a double top, HD?
[13:56] {dino} meli sm l .97 ave, gappy
[14:00] {Threei}  changing my mind on HD, target .65
[14:00] {Les} what's the setup?
[14:00] {Threei}  one partial between .70 and .75
[14:00] {Threei}  .80 short
[14:18] {Threei}  annoying...
[14:21] {nemo} I'd say mos long here but it's such a weird day
[14:24] {Threei}  wow, really?
[14:24] {Threei}  looks short to me
[14:24] {nemo} mpy mpe
[14:24] {nemo} not now, it looked like a bull flag and .55 was pivot as a stop
[14:24] {Threei}  oh... I fell in 3 min coma
[14:25] {nemo} o.k. Les
[14:25] {Les} WTF?
[14:25] {nemo} Vad was channeling you
[14:25] {Les} I'm a min. 5 min. coma man
[14:25] {Threei}  lol
[14:25] {nemo} that's what your wife told me
[14:26] {Les} :)
[14:28] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .55 break if holds .50
[14:28] {Threei}  just a scalp
[14:30] {Threei}  probably two-sided
[14:37] {Threei}  feel free to take profit as you see fit
[14:37] {Threei}  I don't see it as anything more than lunchtime scalp
[14:38] {Threei}  and HD... die finally, will ya?
[14:38] {nemo} could go to vwap around .80
[14:52] {Threei}  direction of thw closing hour thrust is the next thing to decipher
[14:52] {Threei}  feels down to me
[14:54] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .40 break
[14:54] {Threei}  if stays above .30
[14:56] {Threei}  I am going to try and squeeze all I can out of HD just to get compensated to for this investment experience
[15:01] {nemo} slb short
[15:01] {nemo} .49
[15:01] {nemo} stop above .55
[15:02] {Threei}  good boy TZA
[15:02] {Threei}  a bit more please
[15:02] {Threei}  1:1
[15:02] {Threei}  half out
[15:02] {Les} scalp .49 ty
[15:02] {Threei}  yw
[15:03] {Threei}  I want/need more
[15:03] {Les} almost sounds like you're working for this
[15:03] {dptl} stop under .35?
[15:03] {Threei}  gotta cover some early stops
[15:03] {Les} k
[15:03] {Threei}  .39 now
[15:03] {dptl} k
[15:04] {nemo} 1/3 ,38
[15:04] {Threei}  also, this kind of sharp drops in the last hour often leds to full-blown panic
[15:04] {Threei}  leads
[15:04] {dptl} offering .60 last part
[15:04] {Les} watching aapl test intraday support once again
[15:04] {nemo} stop is b/e
[15:05] {Threei}  with SPY barely hanging in positive territory, good chance to get nice selloff once it crosses in red
[15:05] {Threei}  first part covered at .72, HD
[15:05] {Threei}  stop to .81
[15:06] {Threei}  these two took me to flat
[15:06] {Threei}  if they proceed, that will be profitable territory for the day
[15:07] {Threei}  if stopped breakeven, oh well... digging out of the hole is good, and may catch one more before the day is over
[15:08] {Threei}  thids is actually 4 wins in a row, fixing the day
[15:11] {Threei}  Generic Congressional Ballot: #Republicans 46%, #Democrats 36%
[15:11] {Threei}  wow... that's big
[15:11] {nemo} nah...Obama wins in the Fall
[15:11] {Threei}  usually this number is way tighter
[15:12] {Threei}  it's congressional, not presidential
[15:12] {nemo} Now, is that poll in areas where there are contested seats?
[15:12] {nemo} if it's generic, means nothing
[15:12] {nemo} If it's in battleground districts, maybe...
[15:13] {Threei}  generic
[15:13] {nemo} useless
[15:15] {Les} met the French anti-capitalist party on tele while in france
[15:15] {Les} redistribution of wealth and 32 hour working week are the policies
[15:15] {Threei}  good luck with that
[15:16] {Threei}  I actually hope they succeed and get elected
[15:16] {nemo} yeah, Euro is dead
[15:16] {Threei}  world has too short memory, and lessons of USSR are forgotten. Time to refresh it showing the horrific crash this kind of ideas lead to
[15:17] {Les} yeh well...
[15:17] {Les} sarkozy's soundbite of "respect for state authority" didn't inspire me any more...
[15:17] {Threei}  closed second half of HD
[15:17] {Les} yep. ty
[15:18] {nemo} every generation forgets
[15:18] {Les} the fascist or the communist
[15:18] {nemo} fascism exists everywhere read Tocqueville
[15:18] {Threei}  there is difference?
[15:19] {Les} now that you mention it.... no
[15:19] {nemo} corporations to bureaucracy to elected officials
[15:19] {nemo} academics like to cite BS
[15:20] {Threei}  LVS on radar
[15:20] {Threei}  for short
[15:20] {Threei}  not sure of exact setup yet
[15:20] {Les} taking those 2 wins and getting some sleep. c u's tomorrow
[15:21] {Threei}  take care Les
[15:21] {nemo} bye Sheila
[15:22] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .95 break
[15:22] {Threei}  half lot
[15:23] {Threei}  if stays under .05
[15:23] {Threei}  TZA is getting ready for push to 1:2
[15:28] {Threei}  let's move LVS stop to .01
[15:28] {Threei}  not worth the risk
[15:35] {Threei}  let's trail TZA to .45
[15:36] {Threei}  last pullback bottomed at .49, so it's time
[15:38] {Threei}  out LVS
[15:45] {Threei}  ok TZA... time's running out
[15:45] {Threei}  5 more cents
[15:46] {nemo} why don't you take it overnight?
[15:48] {Threei}  nope
[15:48] {Threei}  ok, 1/4 left for the 1:3
[15:48] {Threei}  stop .49
[15:48] {Threei}  can you believe this day actuallu ends in green...
[15:48] {Threei}  slightly but still
[15:52] {Threei}  to .55
[15:52] {Threei}  1:3 baby
[15:53] {Threei}  I am out
[15:53] {Threei}  whew... this day was a bot too much like work
[15:53] {Threei}  but glad to fix it
[15:55] {nemo} GS at highs, we'll be up first thing in the morning
[15:55] {nemo} Draghi speaks in the morning
[15:55] {nemo} I'm sure Goldman is writing the speech
[15:56] {Threei}  and you ask me why not take TZA overnight
[15:56] {nemo} just joking of course
[15:56] {Threei}  because anything can happen overnight these days
[15:56] {Threei}  from EU cvollapse to total solving all world problems
[15:56] {Threei}  well... almost all
[15:57] {Threei}  stupidity will still be there
[15:57] {nemo} we need to carpet bomb France
[15:57] {Threei}  I am against it
[15:57] {Threei}  if there is no France, Canada remains the only one to blame for everything
[15:58] {nemo} fine, bomb everything east of vancouver island
[15:58] {dino} rimm spike
[15:58] {Threei}  oh wow
[15:59] {Threei}  RIMM Hires Canadian bank to consider strategic options - financial press
[15:59] {Threei}  finally
[15:59] {nemo} they'll help them delist
[15:59] {nemo} shrot under .0
[15:59] {nemo} short under .40
[16:00] {Threei}  ok guys
[16:00] {Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
[16:00] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[16:01] {dptl} see ya tomorrow all
[16:02] {dino} gn