Saturday, May 26, 2012

Nemo's findings for the week of 5/28

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now:  

 Here's what happened last week:

  • The high for the week touched the Weekly R1 (WR1) on IWM-the risk on measure. .10 above the Monthly S2 level on SPY.
  • The lows were bounded by the gap from Friday on SPY just below it's Monthly S3 level
  • I ran a fib retracement from the low to the high for the week (aqua)
  • I have also labeled all levels
  • There is also a recent fib retracement from the swing high's of  May 1st to the lows of the 21st. (purple)
  • There are longer time frame fibs, but these two are likely the most relevant.  The others I am looking to as confluence supports.
  • Notice how the the action this week pivoted relatively uniformly around the WPP for each. Perhaps worth noting it is arguably a holiday shortened week.  How many of us showed up (sober) for Friday?  ;-) Under such conditions again, absent say, Germany leaving the Eurozone, could we expect such range bound action again?

Anyway, here are the levels (labeled) for next week, they are bounded by the S3/R3 levels for the week...

Lotta' lines, I know, but it gives you perspective on where we are.  Notice in IWM that the Yearly and Semesterly Pivot are in the same area as the Weekly S2, not very risk on at the moment.  Should we head south next week, that confluence area will likely provide support.  btw...on my screen I never have more than 5 days of data during the day.  SPY has the 200SMA just above the WS2, likely a strong area.  If you see, IWM and SPY approach those two areas simultaneously,  look for long setups...imo last thing, month changes towards the end of the week, the weekly levels should remain accurate.  Don't know that I'll have the new monthly levels until this weekend.