Monday, June 4, 2012

June 04 2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now:  

Listless day - win some, lost some, got a cool 1:4 win, took a few stops, took a few partials with balance stopped breakeven - overall,  finished about flat. Monday's are often like this.

Session Time: Mon Jun 04 00:00:00 2012
[09:07] {Threei}  ok... time to face the reality and start slowly opening my eyes...
[09:13] {scottie} gm
[09:16] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:16] {ese} morning.......
[09:16] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:16] {thomcbell} Broke out the leather bound book this weekend Vad
[09:17] {Threei}  enjoyed it?
[09:17] {ese} which leather bound book would that be T
[09:18] {thomcbell} Very much - i like to re-read it - especially when i misbehave like i did last Thursday
[09:18] {ese} bible?
[09:18] {thomcbell} Taoist Trader
[09:18] {ese} ahhhhhhh
[09:19] {ese} that is the bible isn't it.......
[09:20] {nemo} I get a kick how everybody thinks economies can recover and really reduce unemployment...even if they do, energy costs will keep a lid on employment recovery
[09:21] {ese} they'll recover for sure but it'll be years yet
[09:22] {ese} it ain't no instataneous thing thats for sure
[09:22] {nemo} can't
[09:22] {nemo} energy costs (read fuel and food) will redefine necessity vs discretionary spending increasing the proportion of income devoted to necessity
[09:24] {Beau} good morning all
[09:24] {nemo} 70% of US economy is "consumption"  What exactly and how much will somebody consume as energy costs increase with a strengthening economy
[09:24] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:25] {ese} will be the biggie for sure.....that is going to get more and more expensive.....last couple of times to italy and europe on holidays has shown me that
[09:25] {ese} especially italy
[09:26] {Threei}  the question this morning is, do we get a relief rally or will this bounce be seen as opportunity to sell and heavy dumpong resumes
[09:26] {nemo} I think latter
[09:27] {nemo} I would want to get out of the way even if I missed the bottom
[09:28] {thomcbell} pretty constructive trading in LVS last few days ..........oof
[09:29] {nemo} I hate those stop hunters
[09:32] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .15 break hl
[09:32] {Threei}  If holds  .05
[09:35] {nemo} spy going to .75 pivot
[09:36] {Threei}  no go
[09:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .20 brea
[09:37] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[09:39] {Threei}  target 1:3
[09:40] {Threei}  hmm
[09:41] {nemo} look at spy and iwm
[09:43] {Threei} Long Setup:  GLD  157 break hl
[09:43] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[09:44] {Threei}  1:1
[09:45] {Threei}  1:2
[09:45] {Threei}  out
[09:46] {scottie} +.12 ty
[09:46] {Threei}  yw
[09:46] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .55reak
[09:47] {Threei}  If holds  .45
[09:47] {nemo} oh oh, new lows spy
[09:47] {Threei}  change to .50 break
[09:47] {nemo} black monday coming
[09:48] {Threei}  change to .40reak
[09:50] {nemo} market doesn't know if deflation or inflation yet
[09:50] {Threei}  no one does, lol
[09:51] {Threei}  change to .2 break
[09:51] {Threei}  .20
[09:52] {nemo} I smell a rout
[09:53] {nemo} support at .05 lvs
[09:53] {Threei}  not a scalp if triggers here
[09:53] {Threei}  1:3 target
[09:55] {Threei}  stop .14
[09:55] {nemo} market letting go
[09:56] {Threei}  out
[09:57] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .75 break
[09:57] {nemo} llong lvs .06
[09:57] {Threei}  If holds  .65
[09:57] {nemo} stop under .00
[09:58] {Threei}  Invalidated
[09:58] {nemo} this sucks
[09:58] {Threei}  it's a good entry
[09:59] {nemo} yeah, market sucks
[09:59] {ese} tough to find stuff for sure
[09:59] {Threei}  give it a chance, yout stop is tight
[09:59] {ese} factory orders dn
[09:59] {Threei}  *(US) APR FACTORY ORDERS: -0.6% V +0.2%E
[09:59] {Threei}  recovery at full speed
[10:00] {nemo} out on those
[10:00] {nemo} forgot about those numbers
[10:00] {Threei}  Apr Durable Goods revised lower
[10:00] {nemo} made .03 long, frickin' miracle
[10:00] {Threei}  ugh SLW
[10:00] {Threei}  got away
[10:01] {nemo} o.k. that should help the onslaught along
[10:02] {nemo} IWM broke yearly pivot
[10:04] {Threei} Long Setup:  CHK  .80 break
[10:04] {Threei}  If holds  .70
[10:06] {Threei}  Invalidated
[10:08] {Threei}  watching SLW for pullback entry
[10:09] {Threei}  around former trigger .75 would be ideal
[10:10] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .85reak
[10:10] {Threei}  If holds  .75
[10:11] {Threei}  come on LVS, it's time
[10:11] {nemo} might as well make it .73, low is .74
[10:11] {Threei}  1:1
[10:11] {Threei}  now take that 42 and run
[10:13] {ese} L aig .51
[10:13] {Threei}  1:2
[10:14] {Threei}  1:3
[10:15] {Threei}  1:4, out
[10:15] {Threei}  that was very very overstretched band
[10:16] {Threei}  watching TZA
[10:16] {ese} out aig .64 +.14   nice doin business which ya's.....catch ya tomorrow....only 2 weeks to go and i'm back full X
[10:17] {Threei}  take care ese
[10:17] {ese} cya vad
[10:20] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .60reak
[10:22] {Threei}  1:1
[10:24] {scottie} +.12 ty
[10:24] {Threei}  yw
[10:26] {Beau} still in laser paper TZA buy hung at .82 ??
[10:26] {Threei}  .82?
[10:26] {Beau} yes b
[10:26] {Threei}  .60 was trigger
[10:27] {Beau} BATSb   23.82
[10:27] {Threei}  how did .82 come up?
[10:27] {Threei}  I am not sure what you are saying
[10:28] {Threei}  BATSb is a quote
[10:28] {Beau} showing all .80's in offer.  i sold for23.82 it says
[10:29] {Threei}  it's .68 now
[10:30] {Threei}  .76
[10:30] {Threei}  is it what yo see?
[10:30] {Beau} in levelII  BATSb and BYB showing but not moving.  23.82 to 23.81
[10:31] {Threei}  I suspect your quotes stuck... demo servers may be a little more relaxed
[10:31] {Beau} tza only.  others are fine.
[10:31] {Beau} guess something in trial
[10:33] {Beau} yea must be.
[10:34] {Beau} Monday!!
[10:38] {Threei}  GDX
[10:38] {Threei}  getting interested
[10:42] {Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .05eak
[10:42] {nemo} gdx
[10:43] {nemo} .97 bid dropped
[10:43] {nemo} oh, it's back
[10:45] {Threei}  Invalidated
[10:47] {scottie} was in at .07, out at .93 -.14
[10:48] {Threei}  hmm?
[10:48] {Threei}  it never broke .05 after the call
[10:49] {scottie} On my level II a few ticks at .07 and .075
[10:56] {nemo} spy should attempt the pivot
[11:16] {Threei} Long Setup:  CLF  .60 break hl
[11:16] {Threei}  stop under .50 if caught it
[11:17] {Threei}  started ticking up as soon as I hit alert
[11:17] {Threei}  good for secondary entry
[11:25] {Threei}  no go
[11:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .40 break
[11:30] {Threei}  If holds  .30
[11:31] {Threei}  After huge market drop, Chinese government blocks "Shanghai Composite Index" from internet search engines
[11:31] {Threei}  lol
[11:32] {dino} wow
[11:36] {nemo} love this:
[11:42] {Threei}  stop to .34
[11:52] {Threei}  1:1
[12:02] {dptl} gm
06[12:02] * Threei slaps dptl around a bit with a large alarm clock
[12:03] {dptl} :) no had an appt
[12:03] {Threei}  well... O'd hate to take a slap back
[12:03] {Threei}  let it stand for the next time you sleep in
[12:03] {dptl} sure :)
[12:09] {dptl} tol .65 short?
[12:10] {nemo} well, it's either db or stb time
[12:10] {Threei}  I think so
[12:10] {nemo} stb time
[12:11] {Threei}  FAZ 1:2, out
[12:11] {dptl} in tol .64 stop .75
[12:12] {dptl} what is stb?
[12:13] {Threei}  ugh, too soon FAZ
[12:14] {Threei}  as soon as I closed it I thought, it looks like panic is about to hit
[12:15] {Threei}  I am not sure dp... and I suspect to uncover this mystery would require a trip in dark depths of nemo's perverse mind, which is an avdenture I am not ready for
[12:15] {Threei}  1:1 TOL
[12:15] {dptl} half out
[12:16] {nemo} grammatically should be "is an adventure for which I am not ready."
[12:16] {Threei}  right... see what I mean?
[12:16] {nemo} dp it's short for defecating the bed linens
[12:17] {Threei}  told you...
[12:17] {dptl} lol
[12:17] {Threei}  now, you'd think royal family should know better than peeing in the wind, right? but no:
[12:18] {Threei}  Buckingham Palace says queen's husband Prince Philip has been taken to the hospital with a bladder infection
[12:19] {nemo} .01 upro long
[12:20] {nemo} took half .10 don't like this action
[12:20] {dptl} stop to .56 tol
[12:22] {dptl} all out 1:2
[12:22] {nemo} skin of teeth there
[12:22] {Threei}  nice
[12:22] {dptl} ty
[12:22] {nemo} .10 now another entry
[12:23] {nemo} out
[12:23] {nemo} futes selling
[12:25] {nemo} well, looks like a setup
[12:25] {nemo} whaddya think vad
[12:26] {dptl} fcx .45 long?
[12:26] {Threei}  really 50/50
[12:27] {Threei}  FCX, yes
[12:27] {dptl} if holds .35
[12:27] {Threei}  I'd even go for .40
[12:27] {Threei}  aggressive
[12:28] {Threei}  invalidated anyway
[12:28] {dptl} ye
[12:33] {dptl} pay.30?
[12:34] {Threei}  I wouldn't
[12:34] {dptl} ok
[12:51] {scottie} JPM 31 ?
[12:58] {Threei}  sorry
[12:58] {Threei}  not sure
[12:58] {scottie} bmr ?
[12:58] {Threei}  such long stall, high chance of failure
[12:59] {scottie} ok thanks
[12:59] {Threei}  mini-range shouldn't be taking this long
[12:59] {Threei}  rather a sign of anemic bounce
[13:00] {scottie} approx how many 1 min candles would be ok
[13:00] {dptl} rio .70 long?
[13:02] {Threei}  can't tell on RIO
[13:02] {Threei}  there is no exact rule for that, it's a visual thing... I'd say, up to 5
[13:02] {Threei}  after that it becomes stalled
[13:03] {scottie} thanks
[13:03] {Threei}  but there are additional considerations
[13:03] {Threei}  for instance, if this mini-range holds while market drops,
[13:03] {Threei}  it becomes a validation of a long purely by the fact of staying up there while market makes new lows
[13:04] {Threei}  so longer range can be tolerated still, interpereted as "waitng for a market to turn and help"
[13:04] {scottie} I see, was not the case here
[13:05] {Threei}  no, rather opposite
[13:05] {Threei}  (ES) King of Spain: Government is working to stabilize markets; Spain's economy has solid fundamentals
[13:05] {Threei}  yes yor majesty
[13:06] {Threei}  German Chancellor Merkel: The euro zone needs deeper integration
[13:06] {Threei}  with Germany at helm... right
[13:07] {Threei}  EU zealots won't rest until push the Europ into WWIII
[13:13] {dptl} chk .40?
[13:14] {Threei}  worth a try
[13:14] {dptl} in.42
[13:15] {scottie} in too at .42
[13:15] {dptl} stop under .30
[13:17] {scottie} no help from spy
[13:18] {Threei}  no but CHK held well
[13:23] {Threei}  overwhelmed by brutal force
[13:23] {dptl} stopped
[13:24] {scottie} - .14
[13:27] {scottie} FAS db ?
[13:28] {Threei}  no
[13:28] {scottie} ok
[13:28] {Threei}  this is breakdown formation rather than bounce
[13:29] {nemo} yeah pull back to .00-.10 niche short area
[13:35] {dptl} joy?
[13:37] {Threei}  don't see anything compelling there
[13:37] {dptl} k
[13:45] {dptl} should we try chk at.40 again?
[13:46] {Threei}  too random
[13:46] {Threei}  I wouldn't
[13:46] {dptl} ye
[13:58] {Threei}  overall, bouces are so pathetic, if no news comes I'd look for eod pani
[13:58] {Threei}  panic
[14:03] {dptl} tol .25 long?
[14:05] {Threei}  nah
[14:05] {Threei}  I like .20 break short more
[14:06] {dptl} ok
[14:10] {dptl} are you in?
[14:11] {Threei}  why, you need company?
[14:11] {dptl} lol
[14:12] {dptl} did't take it
[14:12] {Threei}  don't expect me to share if it works
[14:12] {nemo} spxu or tza here if spy breaks .55
[14:12] {dptl} :)
[14:24] {scottie} Leaving now, see you tomorrow
[14:24] {Threei}  take care scottie
[14:38] {Threei}  (ES) Banco Santander Chairman: Only few banks in Spain need financial support, there is no financial crisis in Spain - financial press- Santander has no need for additional capital.
[14:56] {Threei}  plenty of noises from EU about how they are about to resolve all their problems and hnow those problems are not really problems
[14:58] {dino} sounds familiar
[14:59] {Threei}  so very much
[15:00] {nemo} iwm .35 area and spy .95 area long setups
[15:03] {dptl} hal .40 short?
[15:04] {Threei}  or .50 long if market spikes
[15:04] {dptl} ok
[15:07] {dptl} in.39
[15:07] {Threei}  if market helps, has a very nice potential
[15:09] {Threei}  1:3
[15:14] {Threei}  1:1 is here
[15:14] {dptl} half out
[15:15] {dptl} stop to .41
[15:19] {dino} grpn another ipo flop
[15:21] {Threei}  idiots
[15:21] {Threei}  can't believe they rejected GOOG's offer
[15:28] {dino} sort of like yahoo rejecting msft at 32
[15:29] {thomcbell} hubris
[15:29] {thomcbell} no other word like it
[15:29] {Threei}  eqzaktly
[15:29] {Threei}  (EU) Hearing chatter IMF head Lagarde is endorsing additional ECB easing at this week's policy meeting- Comments attributed to a press report from Sweden, where Lagarde is attending a conference.
[15:32] {Threei}  btw, what does it remind you:
[15:32] {Threei}  (ES) Banco Santander Chairman: there is no financial crisis in Spain
[15:32] {Threei}  ?
[15:33] {Threei}  Al Capone: There are no gangsters in Chicago
[15:43] {dino} santander has worst symbol ever, std
[15:43] {Threei}  rofl
[15:45] {dptl} out hal
[15:45] {Threei}  chart's fairly std-ish, too
[15:49] {Threei}  liastless day overall, with slight negative bias
[15:49] {Threei}  selling part of the day seemed to have more determination
[15:49] {dptl} how was morning?
[15:50] {Threei}  buying one was kind of hectic hope
[15:50] {Threei}  back and forth. much like afternoon
[15:50] {Threei}  with one 1:4 win
[15:50] {dptl} we'll get them tomorrow
[15:50] {Threei}  which helped to keep it about flat
[15:51] {nemo} btw, my 4 hour chart looks like we be bouncing tomorrow
[15:53] {nemo} iwm just recaptured the 2011 close
[15:53] {Threei}  I say it all matters zilch in this market
[15:53] {Threei}  we are a toy in hands of another headline
[15:54] {dino} i have no idea
[15:54] {nemo} amazingly tehcnical, both IWM and SPY basically bottomed at their Monthly S1 this morning
[15:54] {Threei}  see market gapping below all support levels aond continuing down if tomorrow's headlines are "Spain goes down"
[15:55] {dino} june 6th is big announcement day
[15:55] {Threei}  see it gapping up and exploding if headline is "Germany ageed to backstop Eurobonds"
[15:55] {nemo} or Queen Isabella on King Ferdinand
[15:55] {Threei}  June 6, then June 17
[15:55] {nemo} sorry
[15:56] {dptl} gn
[15:56] {Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
[15:56] {Threei}  see you tomorrow