Tuesday, June 26, 2012

June 26 2012

Not exactly our day as market ebbed and flowed with not much of pattern following. Happens sometimes when there is a lot of uncertainty and headlines are coming one after another. Got a few good trades but stops, even though well controlled, outweighed profit.

Session Time: Tue Jun 26 00:00:00 2012

[09:05] {jackharry} Good morning everyone
[09:05] {cc_8} sup jack
[09:05] {Threei}  morning jack
[09:11] {dino} gm
[09:11] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:15] {Beau} good morning you all
[09:15] {scottie} gm
[09:15] {Threei}  beau, scottie :)
[09:24] {Threei}  huh
[09:24] {Threei}  77% Oppose More U.S. Help to Bail Out Europe
[09:24] {Threei}  that's quite amazing... 23% seriously think US should throw money in that hole?
[09:24] {_dolores} GM
[09:25] {Threei}  dolores :)
[09:25] {ese} morning
[09:25] {cc_8} hello dolo
[09:25] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:25] {cc_8} orale ese
[09:26] {Threei}  GDX interestingly weak
[09:26] {ese} buongiorno cc
[09:26] {Threei}  .80 breakdown may turn a short trigger if we get consolidation
[09:27] {dptl} gm
[09:27] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:27] {ese} dddddddddpppppppppppppp
[09:27] {jimmy} gm all
[09:27] {ese} welcome jom
[09:27] {ese} jim
[09:27] {Threei}  jimmy :)
[09:28] {ese} jom is good too.......should he ever visit the board
[09:29] {Threei}  if anyone grabbed GDX, 1:1
[09:30] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .85 break
[09:31] {Threei}  If holds  .93 
[09:31] {Threei}  no go
[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .75 break
[09:32] {Threei}  If holds  .85 
[09:33] {Threei}  Invalidated  
[09:35] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .40 break
[09:35] {Threei}  hl
[09:35] {Threei}  If holds  .50 
[09:35] {Threei}  1:1 if you got it
[09:35] {Threei}  broke a bit too fast
[09:38] {Threei} Long Setup:  AIG  .05 break
[09:38] {Threei}  If holds  .95 
[09:39] {Threei}  1:1
[09:40] {Threei}  should be capable of 1:2
[09:41] {Threei} Short Setup: GDX  45 break
[09:41] {Threei}  If holds  .10 
[09:41] {dino} stc jpm 36 calls +.40 and geoy 12.50 calls +.35
[09:42] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:43] {Threei}  stop GDX
[09:43] {Threei}  AIG, out in full
[09:45] {Threei} Long Setup:  X  .80 break
[09:45] {Threei}  If holds  .75 
[09:46] {Threei}  change to .70 break
[09:46] {Threei}  If holds  .65 
[09:49] {Threei}  target .85 - .90, two partials
[09:50] {Threei}  stop's very tight
[09:50] {Threei}  holds well while SPY drops again
[09:50] {Threei}  so far so good
[09:51] {dino} aap
[09:51] {Threei}  out
[09:51] {Threei}  gravity took over
[09:52] {Threei}  watching FCX for bounce
[09:52] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .80 break
[09:52] {Threei}  If holds  .75 
[09:53] {dino} aap sm l .01
[09:53] {Threei}  target .95 - 32, two partials
[09:54] {Threei}  while market direction is unclear, stops are tighter than usually
[09:54] {dino} out aap .38 ave, +.37
[09:54] {Threei}  wtg
[09:54] {dino} ty
[09:56] {Threei}  a few numbers are coming at 10
[09:56] {Threei}  June consumer confidence and richmond fed manufacturing
[09:56] {_dolores} stop in FCX?
[09:57] {Threei}  under .75
[09:58] {nemo} market thinks number good
[09:58] {Threei}  nope... -3 v 2E
[09:58] {Threei}  richmond
[09:59] {Threei}  no cc yet
[09:59] {Threei}  bad too
[09:59] {Threei}  62 v 63E
[09:59] {nemo} market not moving wtf
[10:00] {Threei}  out FCX
[10:00] {Threei}  not getting rhythm right
[10:01] {nemo} mon .21
[10:01] {Threei}  rinse
[10:01] {Threei}  crap
[10:01] {Threei}  this I hate
[10:02] {cc_8} im with you vad
[10:02] {nemo} second mouse gets the cheese
[10:02] {nemo} 1st mouse gets squashed
[10:02] {nemo} lotta volume .24 .25 mon
[10:03] {nemo} breaks .25 it's another entry, pivot's at .95, so not much room for short below
[10:03] {nemo} I"m adding if it gets above .25
[10:04] {Threei}  FCX at target now... thanks for that
[10:04] {Beau} vad fcx stp 74?
[10:05] {Beau} bad send vasd, sorry
[10:05] {nemo} I'm out
[10:05] {nemo} it's not going with the market
[10:06] {cipher} out fcx .93
[10:08] {cc_8} nice catch cipher
[10:08] {Threei}  this is very weird opening
[10:09] {Threei}  still trying to digest the move
[10:12] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  76 break
[10:13] {Threei}  If holds  .90 
[10:13] {nemo} god bless ya
[10:14] {ese} UPL....hows that for your basic cup and handle pattern
[10:15] {Threei}  no go
[10:15] {dino} fosl sm s .68
[10:15] {Threei}  one of us is off today - SPY or I
[10:16] {nemo} spy at daily pivot, likely bounce
[10:17] {nemo} how much???
[10:17] {Threei}  after that post-numbers spike I could swear we are about to have blast-off day
[10:17] {nemo} is the rocket pointed up or down?
[10:17] {Threei}  retreat to 131.60 was as clear buy as they get
[10:18] {Threei}  instead we got expnading range
[10:18] {nemo} .41 pivot
[10:18] {dino} cov fosl .35, +.33
[10:18] {nemo} frickin ppt is screwin with us
[10:19] {nemo} imo...distribution day
[10:20] {dino} lol ppt
[10:20] {Threei} Long Setup:  JPM  .85 break
[10:21] {nemo} tna .71
[10:21] {nemo} playing this tight though
[10:21] {Threei}  .75 stop
[10:21] {nemo} 1/2 80
[10:21] {nemo} stop b/e
[10:22] {nemo} no energy in these bounces
[10:24] {nemo} sheesh
[10:24] {nemo} 1/4 more .93
[10:24] {Threei}  stop to .79
[10:25] {nemo} my stop still to b/e
[10:26] {Threei}  papercuts
[10:27] {nemo} it's the alcohol on the edges that stings
[10:27] {nemo} stop .74
[10:28] {nemo} veritable hair
[10:29] {nemo} this is gonna clunk
[10:29] {nemo} gnite
[10:29] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .20 break
[10:30] {Threei}  If holds  .10 
[10:30] {Threei}  if this one doesn't work, I eat my keyboard
[10:31] {nemo} I can think of something else you can do with it...
[10:32] {nemo} tna .65
[10:32] {nemo} 1/2 lot
[10:33] {nemo} stop is .44  if I don't wuss first
[10:34] {nemo} $ on highs I"m out
[10:36] {nemo} o.k. the hole in my foot isn't that bad
[10:36] {cipher} tna l.70
[10:37] {Threei}  where is that salt and some butter
[10:41] {Threei}  putting them away for now
[10:43] {Threei}  (CY) ECB Cyprus Govt bonds now ineligible as collateral- Says Eurosystem will ensure stable funding of Cyprus banks - Cyprus banks will have to replace collateral
[10:44] {Threei}  what can they replace it with, labyrunth and minotautrus?
[10:44] {dino} and the first domino falls
[10:45] {Threei}  1:1
[10:45] {cipher} out tna .60 -.10
[10:45] {Threei}  half out
[10:45] {dino} fosl sm s .45 ave
[10:45] {Threei}  my keyboard is safe
[10:50] {Threei}  offering 1/4 more .39
[10:51] {thomcbell} lvs has some fighrt in it today 
[10:51] {dino} stop fosl .73, -.28. thing went up on mkt drop
[10:51] {Threei}  stop to .24
[10:52] {nemo} spy just bounced off trend
[10:55] {Threei}  ok, got this one 3/4 right
[10:55] {Threei}  need 3 more like this to fix the day
[10:56] {Beau} took .08 wanted to see what green looked like.  thks vad
[10:57] {Threei}  w
[11:05] {nemo} yo rinny
[11:06] {Threei}  wow
[11:06] {nemo} Merkel will not share debt as long as she lives
[11:06] {Threei}  (DE) Chancellor Merkel: WIll not have shared liability for debt as long as she lives
[11:06] {Threei}  that's quite a statement
[11:07] {nemo} When Black Tuesday comes....
[11:07] {nemo} death of the Euro
[11:07] {nemo} or Germany leaving it
[11:07] {Threei}  ok... let's catch a bounce to short
[11:08] {dino} fosl sm s .04
[11:09] {Threei}  was looking at TZA for .10 entry...
[11:10] {Threei}  grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
[11:10] {ese} well.......what the H happened.....did Ben Bernackers open up his mouth somewhere
[11:10] {nemo} this is tradeable 
[11:10] {nemo} not
[11:11] {Threei}  ese... 11:06] {Threei} (DE) Chancellor Merkel: WIll not have shared liability for debt as long as she lives
[11:15] {Threei}  (EU) ECB's Weidmann: There is no end in sight for the European debt crisis; Must not print money to clean up after governments- Central bank is bound by price stability mandate
[11:15] {Threei}  what is it, truth or dare day?
[11:15] {Threei}  and they finally pick truth?
[11:16] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .40 break
[11:17] {Threei}  If holds  .30 
[11:17] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .80 break
[11:17] {Threei}  If holds  .70 
[11:17] {nemo} mmmhhhh....that's capitulation volume in spy
[11:18] {dino} fosl stop flat
[11:18] {Threei}  FAZ invalidated
[11:18] {dino} pvh sm l .05
[11:21] {Threei}  nah
[11:23] {nemo} when you see a coupla million shares of spy trade in 2 minutes, direction is getting iffy
[11:24] {Threei}  this whole day is offy
[11:25] {nemo} yeah...IWM bottomed at a swing low, and yesterday's spy bottom is the Quarterly S1
[11:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  APOL  .25 break hl
[11:37] {Threei}  If holds  .10 
[11:38] {dino} out pvh .38, +.33
[11:38] {nemo} I took small spxu .85
[11:39] {nemo} stop under .80
[11:42] {Threei}  APOL, cnage of plan
[11:42] {Threei} Short Setup: APOL  35 breeak
[11:42] {Threei}  hl
[11:42] {Threei}  If holds  .10 
[11:43] {nemo} 1/2 .90
[11:43] {nemo} oy
[11:48] {Threei}  1:1
[11:48] {nemo} I'm out, needless to say
[11:52] {Threei}  1:2
[11:52] {Threei}  out
[11:52] {Threei}  may have more in it but I need to secure this
[11:53] {Threei}  of course
[11:53] {Threei}  lol
[12:04] {nemo} looks like we're breaking higher
[12:05] {nemo} not that I want to play a breakout in this dreck, lunchtime in the summer
[12:05] {Threei}  12:06(IT) Italy Monti said to have denied earlier rumors of intent to resign following push for Eurobonds - financial press
[12:06] {Threei}  could it be that we are witnessing final days of this drama...
[12:07] {nemo} tempting to short this though
[12:07] {nemo} iwm at pivot, spy at ws1
[12:19] {Threei}  feels like topping pattern forms
[12:20] {Threei}  FAZ
[12:20] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .30 break
[12:21] {Threei}  If holds  20 
[12:24] {dptl} hog .10 short?
[12:25] {Threei}  I think so
[12:25] {Threei}  aggressive for 46 break
[12:25] {dptl} not available
[12:28] {thomcbell} short setup qcom 53.83 break if holding 53.91 
[12:32] {thomcbell} invalidated
[12:39] {Threei}  (EU) Officials now expect Eurogroup chief Juncker will not step down as previously planned and stay on for a fourth term - financial press (UPDATE)- Due to concerns about Germany becoming too dominant on the policy making council, official no longer expect Luxembourg's Juncker to step aside and allow the German Fin Min Schaeuble to take over leadership of the Eurogroup as had previously been expected
[12:39] {Threei}  lol... they expect Germany to shell out money but not dictate policy
[12:40] {Threei}  fat chance
[12:41] {dino} they are going tp force germany out
[12:42] {_dolores} without germany no euro
[12:42] {_dolores} FAZ at lows
[12:43] {Threei}  SPY looks like breakout coming
[12:43] {Threei}  no FAZ entry here for me
[12:43] {_dolores} this market crazy today
[12:43] {Threei}  the wierdest I've seen in a good while
[12:43] {nemo} cuz ur here
[12:44] {nemo} nothing like the good old days of opening up limit down
[12:53] {dino} dolores, reverse your thinking. without germany they can monitize the bad debts/inflate them away
[12:54] {Threei}  and get hyperinflation
[12:55] {dino} perhaps in time, but they are not concerned w/inflation right now, deflation is the bigger worry
[12:55] {nemo} yeah, it's likely Germany leaving the Euro is the easiest option
[12:55] {dino} deflation is always the bigger fear, it means they have lost control
[12:55] {nemo} means all the banks go bust
[12:57] {nemo} spy coming into trend support here
[12:58] {jackharry} dino, countries leaving the euro and having their own currencies might make economic sense, but this whole project has never been about economics, it's always been about creating a politically united europe by the back door, and what is good for individual countries or the people doesn't count. They are not interested in what is right for their people, they  
[12:59] {nemo} yeah...and it failed
[12:59] {jackharry} are only intesested in saving the euro and the "european project"
[13:02] {nemo} spy bouncing at trend
[13:03] {_dolores} dont know dino germany is the machine saving the rest of the continent
[13:03] {_dolores} is very different from USA
[13:03] {nemo} yeah, but unless they lend, they can't kick the can down the road any longer...and the Germans are reticent to finance everybody else
[13:04] {nemo} the experiment has failed...they know it
[13:04] {_dolores} here in europe health, jobless. all is socialized and available
[13:04] {nemo} depends where you are
[13:04] {_dolores} spain withput europe for example was like greece
[13:05] {nemo} In Germany private insurance buys you more than public insurance
[13:05] {_dolores} poor, non developed
[13:05] {_dolores} the boost started when t
[13:05] {nemo} In England, a friend of mine left brain surgery because she couldn't make a living, and became a psychiatrist
[13:05] {_dolores} they entered the euro
[13:05] {jackharry} that's the problem dolores, it's not one country like the usa, a common currency without a fiscal and political union can just never work
[13:05] {nemo} entering the euro allowed those countries to borrow money and avoid producing
[13:06] {_dolores} yes I agree
[13:06] {nemo} Yeah, we were talking about that in grad school back in the late 80's but all the "europeans" in the program disagreed
[13:06] {nemo} oh well...
[13:07] {_dolores} I agree jack they should have a political and fiscal union definitely
[13:07] {_dolores} but very difficult!!!
[13:07] {_dolores} these polititians are crap
[13:07] {_dolores} see you later guys
[13:08] {jackharry} it's very difficult because the vast majority of the people don't want it, but then of course when has what the people actually wanted counted for anything!
[13:08] {Threei}  such union won't work either
[13:08] {Threei}  too different cultures
[13:08] {jackharry} i agree completely
[13:08] {jackharry} the whole project is flawed
[13:09] {Threei}  this prject was not sustainable from the get-go, and will fail inevitably
[13:09] {Threei}  the sooner it fails, the less p[ain there will be
[13:09] {nemo} political "solutions" are never operationally optimal
[13:09] {Threei}  the longer they drag it out, the wprst the outcome
[13:10] {Threei}  "the worse"
[13:10] {dino} i agree w/you jackharry. it was a political move, not fiscal. now it is time to pay the piper. and germany is sick of picking up the tab. they are waiting to be forced out imo
[13:11] {jackharry} unfortunately the european political elite is completely wedded to the idea, and have spent 20 years lying to the people regarding the nature of what they have been doing. They are not going to stop now
[13:11] {dino} and i appreciate what dolores is saying, but again, it all comes down to the "golden rule". HE WHO HAS THE GOLD (germany) RULES!
[13:11] {Threei}  totally... they whole career is devoted to this
[13:11] {Threei}  their
[13:12] {Threei}  imbeciles like borosso never stop
[13:12] {dino} agree 3i, politicians do not care about what is right/what works. they care about being elected
[13:13] {Threei}  do we get double top on SPY or does it break out
[13:13] {Threei}  I honeastly can't tell
[13:13] {Threei}  -a
[13:13] {dino} dt gut feel
[13:13] {Threei}  be back in 20, maybe with clearer head
[13:17] {thomcbell} qcom had a good one with 54.12 break - 
[13:17] {thomcbell} didnt play that one 
[13:18] {thomcbell} now its melting
[13:26] {nemo} iwm coming into trend here and it looks like it might want higher
[13:35] {ese} ese has been here but too distracted to get much trading done........
[13:39] {nemo} looks like bull flags on iwm spy and fas
[13:43] {Threei}  Cyprus bailout is likely to be 10B, 60% of GDP
[13:47] {Threei}  still can't decipher the direction
[13:48] {Threei}  drop, bounce, no setup for either, no signs of either coming
[13:48] {nemo} I lean towards higher at the moment
[13:49] {Threei}  me too but my problem is, these moments come and go
[13:49] {Threei}  is the what senility looks like?
[13:49] {Threei}  if so, I am so looking forwqrasd...
[14:10] {dino} guess tomorrow is down big. up big, down big, up big, down big. bi-polar market
[14:10] {thomcbell} iwm at pivot here 
[14:10] {thomcbell} is that right 
[14:14] {Threei}  nemo is the best to answer... when he puts the bottle down
[14:15] {nemo} nah, no weakness yet, this is being led by spy and financials
[14:15] {dptl} apol is not going with market .50 short may be?
[14:15] {nemo} watch spy at .33
[14:15] {Threei}  I like it dp
[14:15] {Threei}  good observation
[14:16] {dptl} with .60 stop
[14:17] {dptl} in
[14:21] {nemo} yeah, it was pivot sorry, thought you wanted to short
[14:23] {Threei}  cool beans
[14:23] {dptl} out .30
[14:23] {Threei}  wtg dp
[14:23] {Threei}  good find, good execution
[14:24] {dptl} ty
[14:32] {nemo} trendline spy iwm
[14:32] {nemo} iwm also nera pivot
[14:36] {dino} gj dp
[14:37] {dptl} ty
[14:38] {nemo} could argue iwm long above .95-.90 but stretched so much wouldn't push more than a scalp
[14:38] {nemo} rather wait for spy to get back to 132ish
[14:51] {Threei}  *(DE) EGAN JONES CUTS GERMANY
[14:51] {dino} guys, gotta hop. cya tomorrow
[14:51] {Threei}  take care dino
[14:52] {dino} u2
[15:08] {_dolores} on what is this market breaking out now?
[15:08] {nemo} when they try to take it down buying comes in, natural reaction, take it the other way
[15:09] {nemo} when we couldn't sell off below yesterday's lows on Merkel's statement...which was significant, natural momentum takes it the other way until you run ouot of buyers
[15:09] {Threei}  my best guess is, every peice of bad news is being taken as a hint that a huge money printining is about to come, in this or that form, as politicians are trying to rescue their crumbling dream
[15:10] {_dolores} oh ok
[15:10] {Threei}  and while it's a bad news for a pedestrian, for the market it's just an injection of new money
[15:12] {nemo} notice last two weeks I think we've been basically flat, we have to close this gap
[15:13] {_dolores} ZNGA 
[15:13] {_dolores} going nuts
[15:13] {Threei}  still... my feeling is, in this case market is in denial, and not discounting the right outcome
[15:13] {Threei}  ZNGA Hearing Pacific Crest making cautious comments (timing uncertain); Shares reverse gains to fall over 5%
[15:14] {Threei}  eventual outcome is going to be EU/Euro collapse, and not a printing spree
[15:14] {Threei}  just my presonal feeling
[15:15] {nemo} I'm seeing underlying weakness
[15:17] {Threei}  ZNGA CEO: Zynga is in a symbiotic relationship with Facebook; Not a competitor - CNBC (5.72, -0.34, -5.61%)
[15:24] {dptl} .
[15:26] {_dolores} thxs Threei:)
[15:26] {Threei}  np
[15:26] {_dolores} take cre guys
[15:26] {_dolores} care
[15:27] {Threei}  you too
[15:39] {Threei}  NYSE volume 490M shares, about 11% below its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 2.1:1. - NASDAQ volume 1.30B shares, about 6% below its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 1.4:1.
[15:40] {nemo} yeah, but summer trading too
[15:45] {Threei}  last attempt to squeeze something
[15:45] {Threei}  in TZA
[15:45] {Threei}  .66
[15:46] {Threei}  stop under .60
[15:48] {Threei}  half out .72
[15:48] {Threei}  stop to .63
[15:50] {Threei}  1/4 more out
[15:52] {dptl} bby
[15:53] {Threei}  not fixing the day but takes an insult down a notch
[15:55] {dptl} gn all
[15:55] {Threei}  wait!
[15:55] {Threei}  out last piece .79
[15:56] {Threei}  whew
[15:56] {Threei}  now go :)
[15:56] {dptl} :) 
[15:56] {dptl} good job Vad
[15:57] {Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening, we will get them tomorrow